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Speaker 2: Ren Mac or Renaissance Macro does as good a job
Speaker 2: as anybody worldwide. It blending the two in the back
Speaker 2: and forth daily grind of following markets and executing market economics.
Speaker 2: Jeffrey DeGraf is chairman Neil Dudda ahead of economic research,
Speaker 2: and to have both of them in our studio, Wow,
Speaker 2: is it real? Treat? How has Renaissance Macro invented? That
Speaker 2: famous picture of Lehman falling apart? Was Renmac invented right there?
Speaker 2: It was not. Tom.
Speaker 3: I had actually left Lehman Brothers buddy year prior to
Speaker 3: the demise of Lehman, and I went over to ed
Speaker 3: Heiman Shops sorry at Isi, because he was creating this
Speaker 3: kind of Macro juggernaut, and I said I want to
Speaker 3: be a part of that, and so I was there
Speaker 3: for four years. He started building it out into more
Speaker 3: fundamental research and just wasn't something that.
Speaker 2: Really appealed to me.
Speaker 3: So we pulled the ripcord and started Redmack and had
Speaker 3: the good fortune of picking up my friend over here,
Speaker 3: Neil Dutta.
Speaker 2: I mean Neil Dunda with all of his work as
Speaker 2: well full disclosure a couple of years ago, my Economist
Speaker 2: of the year. We're not going to do like what's
Speaker 2: a FED going to do? Here? I want to talk
Speaker 2: for Global Wall Street about the synthesis of research. Jeff,
Speaker 2: let me start with you, because Dunna is putting out
Speaker 2: three charts an hour. You and I are technical animals.
Speaker 2: I mean it goes back to John Maggie and aw
Speaker 2: Cohen and that what is a trend of the market
Speaker 2: right now? That overlays on Neil Dutta economics.
Speaker 3: Well, I'd say the trend of the market's clearly positive.
Speaker 3: And I think a lot of that has to do
Speaker 3: with Neil's call on the FED right which is expecting
Speaker 3: that the Fed's going to come to the rescue and
Speaker 3: certainly start to ease. And I think the market's seeing that,
Speaker 3: and you're seeing that in cyclicality versus a defensive still,
Speaker 3: which I think is important. The real call for us
Speaker 3: is going to be in this fourth quarter is do
Speaker 3: we lose that cyclicality for defensives. If that's the case,
Speaker 3: then I think the FED is behind, way behind. And
Speaker 3: I think that's that's the issue. So far, that's not happening,
Speaker 3: and we're keeping a bullish posture. But that's certainly on
Speaker 3: the top of the radio. That is entourage to send
Speaker 3: me a notes, ask Neil a question. Put a cork
Speaker 3: into Graph's mouth.
Speaker 4: Okay, let's go there.
Speaker 2: Right now. You're a big one. You were a mister optimist,
Speaker 2: and about twelve months ago, eighteen months ago, you said,
Speaker 2: wait a minute, I'm looking at the tea leaves and
Speaker 2: I'm cautious into Q four into twenty twenty six, which
Speaker 2: way do you tilt with optimism or caution?
Speaker 4: Caution?
Speaker 5: I mean, for me, I think right now we have
Speaker 5: sort of a housing centered view of the world out
Speaker 5: and I think what's interesting is, you know, interest rates
Speaker 5: have been coming down, but you haven't really seen housing
Speaker 5: demand improve in any meaningful way. And to me, that's
Speaker 5: that's sort of a yellow flag on the outlook. You know,
Speaker 5: builders seem to have sort of hit their pivot point
Speaker 5: on margins, and I think that's going to mean less
Speaker 5: construction activity. And I think that's going to bleed into employment.
Speaker 4: I do. And if you.
Speaker 5: Start seeing construction workers, let go in an environment where
Speaker 5: you're not really creating much jobs growth to begin with,
Speaker 5: I think that's sort of another potential source of upward
Speaker 5: pressure on the unemployment rate. So I would, I do
Speaker 5: think the FED is a little bit behind here. You know,
Speaker 5: the fact that they're kind of taking a meeting by
Speaker 5: meeting approach as opposed to just giving guidance into the
Speaker 5: first half of next year, I think is a little
Speaker 5: you know, it's a bit of a mistake. But yeah,
Speaker 5: I would just say that the housing market is softening,
Speaker 5: that's going to bleed into the labor markets. That's going
Speaker 5: to mean weaker real income growth, which kind of challenges
Speaker 5: consumer spending.
Speaker 6: So should the FED be more aggressive than maybe the
Speaker 6: market's pricing in right now? Should they maybe be a
Speaker 6: little bit more front end loaded?
Speaker 2: I think so.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think they, I mean they will go
Speaker 5: more than the markets expect, I believe. I mean, that's
Speaker 5: ultimately the whole point, right is like, what do you
Speaker 5: think what is the market pricing in? That's what our
Speaker 5: business is, right, what is the market pricing in? And
Speaker 5: what do you think the likely outcome is going to
Speaker 5: be right, and you know, the market I think is
Speaker 5: probably on side for what's going to happen this year.
Speaker 5: But if you look at twenty twenty six, it looks
Speaker 5: like the markets are barely priced for two cuts on sides.
Speaker 2: It's the word that data uses year to date, NaSTA
Speaker 2: comp not the one hunderd eighteen percent. It's going to
Speaker 2: be a tough year. We're single digit de Graphs pulling
Speaker 2: his hair out, saying no, get on board. I mean
Speaker 2: that's what we saw. Continue.
Speaker 6: So Jeff, again, as Tom says, there's a lot of
Speaker 6: crosswinds out there. Let's call it crosswinds, geopolitical issues. We've
Speaker 6: got domestic issues with tariff policies, and just on and
Speaker 6: on and on. If the markets are ripping other than
Speaker 6: the dollar, she's still kind of cautious. What do you
Speaker 6: make of just as you step back and look at
Speaker 6: the markets.
Speaker 3: Well, you hit a really important point which gets underappreciated,
Speaker 3: which is there's a global bull market happening. Right, So
Speaker 3: all the concern about tariffs and I get it, I mean,
Speaker 3: you know we all know it that just is not
Speaker 3: is not resonating with markets which are saying there's something
Speaker 3: else here that's happening, right, and this isn't this isn't
Speaker 3: just the G seven or even the G twenty.
Speaker 2: Look at the frontier markets, they.
Speaker 3: Look fabulous, right, right, So I think, you know, to
Speaker 3: put the narrative on it, we try not to do.
Speaker 3: We're trying to be purest and how we look at
Speaker 3: things in the world. Now, I'm a little concerned about gold.
Speaker 3: We entered bubble territory, but the rest of it looks
Speaker 3: pretty good to us. So look, I'm in the camp
Speaker 3: that we get a consolidation. But if Neil's world ends
Speaker 3: up developing, I think that's extraordinarily bullish for equities because
Speaker 3: we have not seen, you know, the markets fall apart
Speaker 3: when we've got yields coming in. And I think that's
Speaker 3: one thing when people are talking about bubbles, they miss
Speaker 3: the idea that, yeah, look, housing bubble yields were going
Speaker 3: up for a year, dot com yields were going up
Speaker 3: for nine months. Twenty twenty one yields were going up.
Speaker 3: Right here, we're actually on the cusp of the potential
Speaker 3: of yields coming down in what is i'd say a
Speaker 3: bit of a specuative market, But not nearly anything what
Speaker 3: we've seen before.
Speaker 2: Special treat for Bloomberg surveyans across the nation, around the
Speaker 2: world on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Jeffrey de Graph,
Speaker 2: Neil Dudda of Renaissance Macro together in our studios with
Speaker 2: their remits of economics and following the market. So I'm
Speaker 2: interviewing Chris Waller in a speech accounts ont foreign relations.
Speaker 2: I'm going to switch this here. I'm gonna go to
Speaker 2: you on economics, Jeff ok to create some wonderful tension.
Speaker 2: There's a single sentence which is Marty's YG one oh one,
Speaker 2: don't fight the Fed. I mean, we're really right back
Speaker 2: to that with a modeled four or five rate cuts
Speaker 2: from Governor Waller. Yeah, I one hundred percent agree.
Speaker 3: And I think you can distill that down to how
Speaker 3: does discretionary act on a relative basis? And right now,
Speaker 3: while it's not a lock, discretionary is still in an
Speaker 3: up trend on a relative basis, and I think that's
Speaker 3: good news, which.
Speaker 2: It says continue to say.
Speaker 3: It just says to us that the FED is still
Speaker 3: playing this game, that they're not behind yet to the
Speaker 3: point that it's affecting those consumer names.
Speaker 2: We go to financial analyst Neil Duttar right now and
Speaker 2: on the markets here come on nominal GDP, pops right
Speaker 2: over to it. Somebody at a bartchchart and the zeitgeist
Speaker 2: in the last two days of the complete misjudge on
Speaker 2: what GDP and nominal GDP have done. Does that continue
Speaker 2: to spur revenues and down the income statement?
Speaker 5: Well, I don't think nominal GDP is really growing as
Speaker 5: rapidly as the GDP tracking numbers are are kind of
Speaker 5: telling us. I mean, I think one rule in business
Speaker 5: economics is, you know, when there's a big disconnect between
Speaker 5: GDP and employment, you tend to go at the employment data. Obviously,
Speaker 5: the fact that you know, total hours worked are barely
Speaker 5: positive over the last three months, I mean they may
Speaker 5: in fact be negative. That would suggest that, you know,
Speaker 5: GDP growth is probably overstated, and so you know, I
Speaker 5: tend to put more weight on employment. So but I
Speaker 5: do think that's an important question for the market, right
Speaker 5: I mean, obviously the bond market is pricing in a
Speaker 5: much different nominal growth outlook than equities, and you know,
Speaker 5: how that reconciles I think will be an important question
Speaker 5: for next year. And you know, I mean basically, what
Speaker 5: square is the circle? I think is a productivity boom.
Speaker 5: That's really what what?
Speaker 2: What?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 5: What kind of resolves all these tensions I think in
Speaker 5: the market, because you know, if if let's say the
Speaker 5: ten year yield is whatever below four percent, if that's
Speaker 5: the nominal growth outlook, how do you justify the earnings
Speaker 5: expectations that are embedded in current market pricing? Only productivity
Speaker 5: makes that happen. And if productivity doesn't show up, then
Speaker 5: you know, there may be there's some risk equities.
Speaker 2: It's all AI. Maybe that's doing it for us. Jeff,
Speaker 2: what do you make of the dollar here?
Speaker 6: We've had it stabilized, but equities that bounce back to
Speaker 6: all time highs, yields are coming in. The dollars just
Speaker 6: kind of hanging down here. What does that tell you? Yeah,
Speaker 6: it doesn't tell us a lot, honestly.
Speaker 3: You know, I think there's there's flow data with tariffs
Speaker 3: and the leverage points that as we still negotiate our
Speaker 3: ways through this, I think it's important to realize that
Speaker 3: gold got into a parabolic state, you know, over the
Speaker 3: last called six weeks as the dollar actually strengthened and
Speaker 3: certainly firmed right, So you know, there's more to the
Speaker 3: gold story than it's just the week dollar story. And frankly,
Speaker 3: one of the things that I like about Gold, I
Speaker 3: do think that it's going to take a pretty significant
Speaker 3: pause here. But I think one of the things that's
Speaker 3: interesting is that there hasn't been a single narrative. Usually
Speaker 3: when you get into these bubbles, it's everybody knows what
Speaker 3: the single narrative is, right, and you can ask the
Speaker 3: question and I think there's three or four probably correct answers,
Speaker 3: but it's not the market hasn't decided on one, and
Speaker 3: that's where you get into trouble usually. So I'm actually
Speaker 3: still optimistic about that.
Speaker 2: Okay, can we go on Narro O'Neil? Is it okay?
Speaker 2: If I go like nuts to graph right now? You're talking,
Speaker 2: I mean the micro analysis of his note get us
Speaker 2: note from Renaissance macrofolks. And you mentioned Gilead silent science.
Speaker 2: I mean the healthcare I mean healthcare has been an
Speaker 2: absolute train wreck sector. Yes, How does someone like you,
Speaker 2: combining fundamentals and particularly technical dynamics, know when to pull
Speaker 2: the trigger and go long healthcare? How do you do that?
Speaker 3: Well, it's a process and so The first thing that
Speaker 3: we start with, Tom is we look at what we
Speaker 3: call our SERM standardized excess return, and that's really just
Speaker 3: a fancy way to say a longer term alpha generation model.
Speaker 2: Right now, that word.
Speaker 3: We're looking at how much ALPH has been generated for
Speaker 3: the sector, in this case healthcare over the last three
Speaker 3: to five years, and if we compare that to the
Speaker 3: sector since the nineteen sixties, we've got singularly the worst
Speaker 3: alpha generation we've ever seen, right, and that's I mean,
Speaker 3: that's capital markets. It's going to result in bankruptcy, is
Speaker 3: is going to result in M and A everything else. Okay,
Speaker 3: So that's the contrarian that unless you believe that these
Speaker 3: things are going to zero or as a sector which
Speaker 3: doesn't happen, that's not going to happen. That we wait
Speaker 3: for momentum. We wait for we wait for trends, we
Speaker 3: wait for momentum to confirm that. And that's where we
Speaker 3: lead into it. We did it with China about a
Speaker 3: year ago. We're doing it with health care now. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is so important, folks. This goes back to Adheim
Speaker 3: and this goes back to John Murphy. The melding of
Speaker 3: this of Neil Dudda's economics. Jeff deographs, I'm going to
Speaker 3: call it technical bias, and then over to fundamental analysis.
Speaker 2: Is the religion here? Okay, so you're there, but value
Speaker 2: investing is basically cratered and only does well given down markets.
Speaker 2: We haven't had a down market, are you? Is you
Speaker 2: tone at the shop growthiness or is it a value search? No, no,
Speaker 2: it is.
Speaker 3: We will take what the market gives us. I mean
Speaker 3: we will go with the cart giving you. Right now,
Speaker 3: the market is giving you growth. It's giving you it's
Speaker 3: not giving you it's not giving you value. It's giving
Speaker 3: you beta. But we think beta's actually stretched, and we
Speaker 3: we actually believe that the market is going to transition
Speaker 3: from at any price and transition that into momentum. And
Speaker 3: that'll be an interesting play because it's usually what happened,
Speaker 3: and that's where you get into the final stages of
Speaker 3: a ball market. And we're not there yet.
Speaker 6: Neil, you've been talking a lot this morning about labor.
Speaker 6: How does the change in immigration policy affect kind of
Speaker 6: the the analysis of the labor market here, because that
Speaker 6: was a lot of folks coming into this country taking
Speaker 6: a lot of jobs, and they're not coming in anymore.
Speaker 4: I mean, I personally think that's more of a red herring. Honestly.
Speaker 5: I mean, to me, it's interesting because we're talking about
Speaker 5: how break even rates unemployment have come down, meaning what
Speaker 5: do you need to keep the unemployment rate flat precisely
Speaker 5: at the time where the unemployment rate has been actually
Speaker 5: rising a little bit more rapidly than it hasn't, you know,
Speaker 5: over the last year or so. It's basically you know,
Speaker 5: had the September data been released, it probably would have
Speaker 5: been up three months in a row by a ten.
Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean, the break even rate has come down,
Speaker 5: but it hasn't come down enough to keep the unemployment
Speaker 5: rate from going up in the first place. And you know,
Speaker 5: that to me is what's important. And if you look
Speaker 5: at you know, these areas of the economy that are
Speaker 5: sensitive to immigration, you don't really see upward wage pressure
Speaker 5: in construction employment and sort of you know, sanitation, these
Speaker 5: sort of sectors where there's a lot of no scaled work.
Speaker 5: So I don't know, I mean, I think it's to me,
Speaker 5: it's a bit of a red herring. And of course,
Speaker 5: look at what people are saying about like job finding rates.
Speaker 5: They're telling you it's getting more difficult to find work.
Speaker 5: And when when consumers tell you labor markets are getting worse,
Speaker 5: I think it pays to believe them.
Speaker 2: I mean here it is from listeners and viewers as well.
Speaker 2: So Neil dot I ss At Waller, let me ask
Speaker 2: of you. Are we so polarized in our John Edwards
Speaker 2: two Americas that we literally have to operate with a
Speaker 2: study of to our starts that have and they have nots.
Speaker 2: Are we that separate now where aggregation of data doesn't work?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 4: I don't believe so.
Speaker 5: I mean I think ultimately, you know, all of these
Speaker 5: things will kind of net out over time, you know,
Speaker 5: I mean what you're talking about basically is this sort
Speaker 5: of K shaped economy, right, like this idea that the
Speaker 5: upper income I mean, and that's and that's a that's
Speaker 5: a huge source of pushback that I get in our
Speaker 5: own client meetings.
Speaker 2: Right, throw a tape dispenser, Adam says, shaped. We usually
Speaker 2: mud wrestle for the shape. Remember V shaped. We got
Speaker 2: a real treat and it's too short of visit Jeff
Speaker 2: to graph with this and Neil douta of Renmack. I'm
Speaker 2: going to go to you, Jeff quickly neel you quickly
Speaker 2: because Paul wants to get one in before the market opening.
Speaker 2: Jeff to graph, what's the biggest mistake people make it,
Speaker 2: particularly the young kid's day trading with technical analysis.
Speaker 3: I think they have an illusion of control, selling high,
Speaker 3: buying low, selling high buying low versus writing the trends.
Speaker 2: Well, it's a technical riding the trend trends. What's a
Speaker 2: technical stochastic failure of all this computer garbage today?
Speaker 3: Well, again, it's that illusion of control that you think
Speaker 3: that you can predict what's going to happen, versus just
Speaker 3: riding the wave of earnings and everything else.
Speaker 2: It's the biggest mistake in our nation's economic analysis right now.
Speaker 5: Is that you assume that relationships are stable from one
Speaker 5: cycle to the next.
Speaker 2: One cycle to the next boom. I like that a lot.
Speaker 2: That's true too, Jeff.
Speaker 6: A lot of people have been talking about AI and
Speaker 6: it's created a bubble in the market, and I don't
Speaker 6: even know what a bubble is anymore. How do you
Speaker 6: define a bubble? How do you try to identify a
Speaker 6: bubble in whatever market you're looking at.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question. It's a very hard thing
Speaker 3: to quantify. One of the things that we've come up with.
Speaker 3: It's very simple and it's been very very effective. And
Speaker 3: I'll leave it for you and you can put it
Speaker 3: in your back pocket. If an asset doubles in two years,
Speaker 3: you're in bubble territory. That doesn't mean it's done, but
Speaker 3: it means that you have to start talking about it
Speaker 3: as a bubble.
Speaker 2: YouTube love here, tom Key, please do a little more
Speaker 2: often like this with the graph and Dutta, they're loving it.
Speaker 7: I got tears to my eyes, they're loving it. A
Speaker 7: question to Neil Dutta exactly so Nea wanted that they.
Speaker 7: I think that our federal Reserve is looking at is inflation?
Speaker 7: Obviously we haven't really seen it.
Speaker 2: Are we missing something here?
Speaker 6: Or are corporations bearing the brunt of whatever inflation?
Speaker 4: The hawks are missing it? Okay, the hawks are missing it.
Speaker 5: I mean ultimately, I think, what's you know, we're talking
Speaker 5: about big budget deficits, tariffs, policy, risk premium, and yet
Speaker 5: the ten year yield is below four percent? Yeah, so
Speaker 5: I think that to me, it just basically demonstrates that,
Speaker 5: you know, a lot of that bad stuff was in
Speaker 5: the price. What's not And I mean, what the what
Speaker 5: the bond market probably has yet to have, you know,
Speaker 5: meaningfully contend with is some kind of material slow down
Speaker 5: in the economy, because remember the consensus has been revising
Speaker 5: up their GDP estimates for the last like five or
Speaker 5: six months. So you know, to me, that's what's interesting.
Speaker 5: I'm not concerned about inflation. I mean, ultimately, I think
Speaker 5: nominal growth is sluggish, and if you put tariffs on
Speaker 5: it'll just you know, I mean, force people to go
Speaker 5: pay more for one thing and then they'll have to
Speaker 5: cut back on something else to get in before.
Speaker 2: The market open. And with Jeff de Graph, that's a
Speaker 2: great proofot to have him in the studio today. Retail
Speaker 2: right fear missing out to shut up and buy, and
Speaker 2: institutions with all their sophistication maybe falling behind. How big
Speaker 2: is that gap right now between retail success and CTA
Speaker 2: and hedge funds. OMG, we're not getting it done well.
Speaker 3: I think you hear the You hear the the successes
Speaker 3: of the retail crowd, right, you don't hear the numerous failure.
Speaker 3: So I think that's really important. Look, we are now
Speaker 3: and with the help of AI, we are now distinguishing
Speaker 3: between retail sentiment and the Reddit crowd and the ex
Speaker 3: crowd and.
Speaker 2: What the institutions are saying. Right, So that is a.
Speaker 3: Part of our analysis now that we are using is
Speaker 3: what's happening to the crowd sourcing versus what's happening to
Speaker 3: the institutions. And that's that's important because that's got that
Speaker 3: army is a you know, is is real. They've got
Speaker 3: bayonets and pitchforks, and it's important.
Speaker 2: To get twenty seconds. It's too important question. A listener
Speaker 2: emails in Jeff to graph. Can AI replace Neil Dotta? No,
Speaker 2: no is a cervict wines. Cervict is unreplaceable. I think
Speaker 2: I like a tweet that was out there today that
Speaker 2: said AI will replace bad science and will probably replace
Speaker 2: bad economics. Neil Dutta. You know I'm snarky there. But
Speaker 2: AI is it a productivity plus? And are we underestimating
Speaker 2: America's productivity as we folded into business efficiency?
Speaker 4: I don't think so.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think right now, AI is probably a
Speaker 5: productivity suck because because you're spending so much time trying
Speaker 5: to figure out how to actually integrate it properly into
Speaker 5: your workflow, and that process is time consuming and keeps
Speaker 5: you maybe from doing more productive things.
Speaker 4: You know, i'd really right right now.
Speaker 5: So you know, typically in a productivity boom, you don't
Speaker 5: tend to see productivity rising alongside the adoption of said technology.
Speaker 4: It usually happens after.
Speaker 5: So if you think about like the desktop computer that
Speaker 5: was probably making its way in corporate America sometime in
Speaker 5: the early nineties, it wasn't really until the late nineties
Speaker 5: that productivity really took off. So, you know, I think
Speaker 5: it's not you know, it's I don't think it's actually
Speaker 5: driving productivity right now.
Speaker 6: My first earnings models of pain Webber nineteen eighty six
Speaker 6: were on pencil and page.
Speaker 2: Did you use a slide roll paper? You want to
Speaker 2: change your estimates? You had to do it?
Speaker 4: Think long.
Speaker 2: I am my father's koufl and Escer slide roll in
Speaker 2: my desk at home nineteen forty seven's that's when men
Speaker 2: were men. That's where men men.
Speaker 3: Do you still have your original HP twelve set? I
Speaker 3: have an Hue twelve C with an Aimer CFA institute.
Speaker 3: Stick around you too, I have the original one. We're
Speaker 3: back tonight. I'll be with the CFA. It's such a
Speaker 3: nerd patrol here. Everyone in your uses in twelve. I'm sorry, sorry,
Speaker 3: this is never gonna happen again. This level get one
Speaker 3: more in.
Speaker 6: Your from a technical perspective, is anything jumping out of
Speaker 6: you right now as a screaming buy or maybe a
Speaker 6: screaming short.
Speaker 3: Well, we talked a little bit about healthcare, so I
Speaker 3: think that's making a turn, right, So you still have
Speaker 3: to be selective and looking at that without question. And look,
Speaker 3: we talked about doubling in two years. Gold has done that, right,
Speaker 3: So I think you have to be very very careful
Speaker 3: with gold.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: The reason that that's important is you have to you
Speaker 3: have to start selling into strength. That's not something we
Speaker 3: tend to do. So we sell into Strengthen we're in
Speaker 3: a quote unquote gold environment or bubble environment, and that's
Speaker 3: where we are.
Speaker 2: Dennis Garman a note to me two days ago on
Speaker 2: is golden yen called he is sliding out of gold.
Speaker 2: He made real clear that enough is enough. Final question
Speaker 2: to mister data, Neil Dutta, who's the next FED chairman?
Speaker 5: This is a loaded one. Well, I don't think it's
Speaker 5: any of the people that are being discussed right now.
Speaker 5: And the reason is is because if it was going
Speaker 5: to be one of those people. They would have already
Speaker 5: named them by now, so you know, I mean, I
Speaker 5: think the longer it goes on, the more likely it is,
Speaker 5: frankly that Secretary Besson. I mean, what do we know
Speaker 5: about Treasury Secretary Besson? We know that number one, which
Speaker 5: is the most important, he has the confidence of the
Speaker 5: President of the United States, and number two he has
Speaker 5: the confidence of the financial markets, and those are two
Speaker 5: pretty good. And number three he probably is interviewing all
Speaker 5: these people in this thinking to himself like, I'm better
Speaker 5: than all these guys, you know, I think, I mean,
Speaker 5: to me, that's sort of my dark horse pick.
Speaker 2: Has this been okay? If you guys had fun, it's great? Absolutely?
Speaker 2: Can we do it again? Yeah? You tell us what
Speaker 2: twenty seven Concumber, Neil Data, Jeff de Graf. They are
Speaker 2: Renaissance Macro again. We protect the copyright of all of
Speaker 2: our guests. You've got to go to rinmac to get
Speaker 2: the picks. He does the Jeff de graph and the
Speaker 2: detail of Neil data. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
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Speaker 2: Paulstrinian time King time now to get out to a
Speaker 2: view from sixty thousand feet. David Lebowitz joins us. He
Speaker 2: is with JP Morgan and just to some wonderful work
Speaker 2: summarizing what the team does on equities, on alternatives, on
Speaker 2: fixed income, but also almost what the zeitgeist is right now.
Speaker 2: And what I love about your note goes this goes
Speaker 2: back to Williams College, you know, undergraduate. There they handle productivity.
Speaker 2: Williams Amherson three great rivalry. It is, I mean three ratios.
Speaker 2: They are of capital dynam labor dynamics, and this strange
Speaker 2: thing total factor productivity, which is the innovation that's out
Speaker 2: there right now. I look at your note. It is
Speaker 2: basically trying to figure out where the productivity matrix is
Speaker 2: right now. When you summarize Casmin Frowley, Libovitz, David Kelly,
Speaker 2: Gabriela Santos, all of JP Morgan people together, what's a
Speaker 2: consensus somewhere productivity is.
Speaker 4: So when we look at what's going on, we recognize
Speaker 4: that there are some headwinds to growth from the labor
Speaker 4: side of the equation, but we do think that the
Speaker 4: response of corporations will be to invest more and boost
Speaker 4: that productivity. And so one of the things that we've
Speaker 4: done over the past couple of years in our long
Speaker 4: term capital market assumptions is increase that TFP, that total
Speaker 4: factor productivity estimate to reflect that investment in technology, that
Speaker 4: adoption in technology that numbers up thirty basis points over
Speaker 4: the past.
Speaker 2: This is really critical, folks. That's what I wanted to
Speaker 2: get out of the one about being rude and asking
Speaker 2: point blank. But this is a huge over of what
Speaker 2: we're all going. Lisa Mateo's going, what is going on?
Speaker 2: Tom Keen is going what is going on? And the
Speaker 2: answer is technology, almost in a nineteenth century sense, away
Speaker 2: from AI. Do you see productivity driving investment exactly?
Speaker 4: And so you know, there are a couple of things
Speaker 4: that I would focus on. One, it's not just about
Speaker 4: the AI itself, It's about how you apply the AI,
Speaker 4: and I think that's where some of the headwinds are.
Speaker 4: I think a lot of industries are still figuring out
Speaker 4: how to use this technology, but it is going to
Speaker 4: change the game. It is going to support growth over
Speaker 4: the longer term, and importantly, it opens up this channel
Speaker 4: for more investment, and it allows investors to benefit not
Speaker 4: only in the big tech names they're doing a lot
Speaker 4: of the creation of this technology, but also over time,
Speaker 4: this should broaden out. It should support financials, it should
Speaker 4: support materials, it should support utilities. This is going to
Speaker 4: be a rising tide that lifts all ships.
Speaker 6: So does this improved productivity outweigh any kind of economic
Speaker 6: drag or inflationary pressures that might come from tariffs and
Speaker 6: at just a tighter or lack of a geopolitical smoothness
Speaker 6: out there.
Speaker 4: So I think that there are two kind of counteracting forces,
Speaker 4: one being economic nationalism, so focusing more on your own backyard.
Speaker 4: The other being fiscal activism, so having more active government spending.
Speaker 4: The government spending bit may support inflation, but if you
Speaker 4: direct that spending in the right way, it could subsequently
Speaker 4: boost productivity and actually help inflation come down over time.
Speaker 4: For us, the big risk is what's going on with
Speaker 4: respect to migration and the potential growth in the labor force.
Speaker 4: That's where we think we'll see some inflationary pressure come from.
Speaker 4: That's where we think we'll see some drag on growth,
Speaker 4: but hopefully we get enough productivity to effectively offset that.
Speaker 2: All right, so let's get right to it.
Speaker 6: Where As a global market strategist at the biggest global
Speaker 6: financial services company in the world, where do you guys
Speaker 6: see the best opportunity these days?
Speaker 4: So we continue to like the US tech story. We
Speaker 4: think that although the pace of earnings growth is decelerating,
Speaker 4: we're still looking at absolute numbers that are very attractive,
Speaker 4: particularly compared to what you can get the rest of
Speaker 4: the market. We're also thinking more about the rest of
Speaker 4: the world. You know, something that happened during the pandemic
Speaker 4: was we went from this environment of almost global austerity
Speaker 4: in the aftermath of the GFC to an environment where
Speaker 4: governments are spending much more aggressively, much more proactively. That's
Speaker 4: going to help places like Europe. That's going to help
Speaker 4: the emerging markets. And so we see opportunity in em today,
Speaker 4: particularly given the strength of the US consumer and the
Speaker 4: prospect for the FED to ease going forward.
Speaker 2: David le moved to this global market strategy. JP Morgan.
Speaker 2: Now we're sort of taking a high road here in
Speaker 2: some of the theory wrapped around a many year a
Speaker 2: multi year bull market as well. Okay, I love what
Speaker 2: you say about all this, but the bottom line is
Speaker 2: some of us older remember late ninety four ninety five,
Speaker 2: this thing called the Internet showed up and everybody figured
Speaker 2: out network effect in the investment that JP Morgan sees
Speaker 2: in technology and in America. Is the network effect still
Speaker 2: in place for technology companies versus conventional scale economics And
Speaker 2: the answer is, I think people are way underplaying the
Speaker 2: network benefits of AI.
Speaker 4: I would very much agree. I mean, when I think
Speaker 4: about the power of this tool, and you know, I've
Speaker 4: been in this industry for fifteen years, and so when
Speaker 4: I started, I used to go to the Bureau of
Speaker 4: Economic Analysis website, download the spreadsheet, type the numbers in,
Speaker 4: update the charts, update the model, so on, so forth.
Speaker 4: You can now sit down with a large language model
Speaker 4: and say, build me something to model distance to default
Speaker 4: in accel. It'll spit it back in forty five seconds.
Speaker 4: That's something that could take hours, and so it freeze
Speaker 4: up time.
Speaker 2: Didn't trip over a value line laying on the floor
Speaker 2: eight inches thick, and you would wait for Thursday when
Speaker 2: the next chapter of value line came out. They had
Speaker 2: they had a logarythmic chart.
Speaker 6: That's exactly so, David, you say diversification isn't optional, it's essential.
Speaker 2: What's the cfcation for you guys?
Speaker 4: So for us, diversification comes in a lot of different ways.
Speaker 4: I think the biggest thing we've tried to impress upon
Speaker 4: investors going forward is that diversification doesn't just mean balancing
Speaker 4: your portfolio between stocks and bonds. It means looking more
Speaker 4: broadly at things like real assets, things like infrastructure, things
Speaker 4: like private credit, which can provide uncorrelated income streams relative
Speaker 4: to what the sixty forty portfolio has historically provided. And
Speaker 4: I think if we go back to twenty twenty two,
Speaker 4: which I know nobody likes one talks about, it's a
Speaker 4: terrible year for both stocks and bonds. The reason why
Speaker 4: is that inflation was a problem in our long term
Speaker 4: capital market assumptions. We're looking for higher inflation volatility. You
Speaker 4: need assets in your portfolio that can diversify that positive
Speaker 4: stock bond correlation. And that's going to be alternately.
Speaker 2: Backs to Orzach on this Brookings then and always and
Speaker 2: now Atlizard and Peter and his team said, look, the
Speaker 2: supply lines are fractured within the pandemic. Don't you put
Speaker 2: a big asterisk around twenty twenty one and say twenty
Speaker 2: and just say we can't analyze it because it was
Speaker 2: a health event.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean I think that, yes, pandemics are are
Speaker 4: in theory very unique and idiosyncratic events. But the follow
Speaker 4: through from the pandemic, right, those things I talked about earlier,
Speaker 4: of economic nationalism and physical activism, that is going to
Speaker 4: drive more inflation volatility over time. And so even if
Speaker 4: CPI doesn't go to nine, if CPI's gyrating between two
Speaker 4: and four, that's still going to be more challenging than
Speaker 4: the world we were in in the aftermath of the GFC.
Speaker 2: That's not why you're here. I mean, David Kelly thinks
Speaker 2: you're here because of JP Morgan. Blah blah blah. Did
Speaker 2: you study with James McGregor Burns at Williams College?
Speaker 4: I a leadership I studied with Professor McAllister, who was
Speaker 4: one of his disciples, his disciples.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I had a great relationship with Burns up
Speaker 2: at Williams, and I've actually had the honor of attending
Speaker 2: his gravesite. But tell us about the leadership structure of
Speaker 2: politics and philosophy at Williams. It's absolutely best in class
Speaker 2: the side of the Atlanta.
Speaker 4: So when I think about what's going on from a
Speaker 4: philosophical and a political science angle and try to overlay leadership,
Speaker 4: you know, we always talked about kind of transformational leaders
Speaker 4: people who rose to the occasion. They stepped up to
Speaker 4: the plate and dealt with with what they were being presented,
Speaker 4: rather than trying to shape the future based on their
Speaker 4: own agenda. And I think what we need to see
Speaker 4: frankly is going back to the former rather than the latter.
Speaker 4: I think politics, regardless of where you look around the world,
Speaker 4: is all about very narrow agendas that people are trying
Speaker 4: to push forward. We need to take a look around
Speaker 4: at the world, look at the investment, look at the
Speaker 4: potential for productivity growth, and say how do we maximize this?
Speaker 4: Because if we can have the rising tide lift all
Speaker 4: boats at the end of the day, that makes everybody
Speaker 4: better off. And that's the whole point of leadership. When
Speaker 4: all of a sudden does.
Speaker 2: I can't do better than that? No. David Leader rights
Speaker 2: with this Williams College and of course JP Morgan investment
Speaker 2: Management in a new building. He's in the new building.
Speaker 4: Yes, he is.
Speaker 2: My word is the food as good as they say,
Speaker 2: A pretty awesome.
Speaker 4: It's it's kind of like Hotel California.
Speaker 2: You know you can do you go home?
Speaker 4: No, you don't have to. It's great.
Speaker 2: You can just bring your kids. It gives to work.
Speaker 4: They're coming for Halloween next week.
Speaker 2: So yeah, they all dresses James Diamond.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're not not this year. My older one is
Speaker 4: going to be free to CALLO and my younger one
Speaker 4: is going to be ursuless.
Speaker 2: Jacky Mary. That would work. It's free to callos.
Speaker 4: She came on her own.
Speaker 2: That is so Williams College, Are you please? Who are
Speaker 2: the girls going? As in the Lisa Mantalehouse el viral.
Speaker 8: This is that the teen years they get those like
Speaker 8: little two skimpy students has.
Speaker 2: Been a heart attack. Yeah, that's how they were. David
Speaker 2: do get a life, Taylor Swift, It goes David Liba.
Speaker 2: Bit's with JP Morgan. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app or
Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Joining us down Cameron Dawson of New Edge here. She
Speaker 2: has been brilliant on participating in the equity market. You
Speaker 2: say earnings the season we're into now and into next
Speaker 2: week's tech extravaganza is the catalyst to break out of
Speaker 2: a range. So many disagree with that.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, earnings have been the key reason why this
Speaker 9: market has been so very resilient. If you're revising up
Speaker 9: earnings estimates, it does something really powerful because not only
Speaker 9: are you increasing your estimates for profits, but you're also
Speaker 9: providing the environment to be able to expand multiples. Multiples
Speaker 9: go up when you are revising estimates higher.
Speaker 2: They tend to go down when you're.
Speaker 9: Cutting estimates, which just means that as long as we're
Speaker 9: in a world where people still need to ratchet up
Speaker 9: their numbers, it means that you can be in this
Speaker 9: world where valuation can levitate at high levels.
Speaker 2: Oh, Walmart, it's gone from forty to forty two. It's
Speaker 2: a multiple expand multiple expandi mark exactly forty two. So, Cameron,
Speaker 2: what do you make of this earning season so far?
Speaker 2: It seems like the numbers once again, just like the
Speaker 2: second quarter coming in well above expectation.
Speaker 9: Yeah, we've seen eighty six percent of companies beat earnings expectations.
Speaker 9: That's pretty much in line with average.
Speaker 2: That's very normal.
Speaker 9: You have a lowered bar going into earning season, and
Speaker 9: then you jump over that lowered bar. But we see
Speaker 9: very strong results across the board, and that's not something
Speaker 9: that surprises us. What is very interesting is some of
Speaker 9: the reactions to strong results, which just means that you're
Speaker 9: not necessarily seeing big upside moves even though you're seeing
Speaker 9: beats and raises, which just suggests that maybe some of
Speaker 9: those multiples did get to a point where they can't
Speaker 9: push much higher.
Speaker 2: Very good.
Speaker 6: I mean, I'm looking at the bond market here.
Speaker 2: We've got ten year treasury yields below four percent? Here,
Speaker 2: what is the bond market.
Speaker 6: Telling us here?
Speaker 9: This is very pecure because given all of the strong
Speaker 9: narratives that we have about US economic growth, look at
Speaker 9: Lanta fed GDP now being at three point nine percent.
Speaker 9: You have talked about all this AI capex and great earnings,
Speaker 9: and yet and yet the tenure is below four percent.
Speaker 9: So the big question we have is the tenure sending
Speaker 9: as a signal that we should be more concerned about
Speaker 9: equitying credit the tenure pricing and maybe a more dire
Speaker 9: economic scenario. Or is the tenure falling because of things
Speaker 9: that could actually be beneficial to equitying credits, such as
Speaker 9: expectations for quantitative easing or expectations of inflation remaining contained
Speaker 9: big question?
Speaker 2: This is really brilliant. This is the word I use, folks, ambiguity,
Speaker 2: where it can cut this way or that way. John
Speaker 2: Writing is brilliant about this over at Brain in terms
Speaker 2: of the economics. Explain the ten year yield ambiguity or
Speaker 2: almost mystery and what it means for someone looking at
Speaker 2: their four oh one case saying should I go further?
Speaker 9: Cameron Dawson long Well, I believe it is a Bloomberg
Speaker 9: tagline that says context changes everything.
Speaker 2: I think you're back here.
Speaker 9: I think that the context of why the tenure is
Speaker 9: falling is so very important. If you have a tenure
Speaker 9: falling because you're pricing in a bad economic scenario, that
Speaker 9: implies lower earnings, lower valuations within risk assets, which implies
Speaker 9: a risk off move. But if the tenure is falling
Speaker 9: because you have a very aggressive FED, that's going to
Speaker 9: be buying up a lot of bonds on the long end,
Speaker 9: or you have this ability where the Treasury is not
Speaker 9: having to issue as much, then that can actually be
Speaker 9: an environment where lower yields is still good for risk
Speaker 9: asset tursts.
Speaker 2: And slack moments ago. It's like you wrote it for you.
Speaker 2: Thank you listening for listening to Cameron Dawson towardston over
Speaker 2: at Apollo. The US is truly anigue thirty percent of
Speaker 2: the global stock market, almost fifty percent nownball yep. And
Speaker 2: it's just amazing, And that kind of goes to where
Speaker 2: I want to go. Concentration risk.
Speaker 6: It's been something we've been talking about for more than
Speaker 6: a year now, it seems like, but it doesn't seem
Speaker 6: to be a problem for the market per se. But
Speaker 6: we've been all raised and all educated that we need
Speaker 6: to have a broadening breath at the market.
Speaker 9: Well, if we go back in history, the two past
Speaker 9: peaks of concentration were during the nifty to fifty time
Speaker 9: at the end of the sixties as well as at
Speaker 9: the peak of the tech bubble in the late nineties.
Speaker 9: And what happened after both of those periods were effectively
Speaker 9: lost decades of returns for equities and last decades do happen. However,
Speaker 9: the challenge you have is it's the timing, because if
Speaker 9: you try to bet against concentration, being early is the
Speaker 9: equivalent of being wrong.
Speaker 2: So what we think we need to have is a
Speaker 2: catalyst as to.
Speaker 9: Why that concentration unwinds, and for us, that catalyst is
Speaker 9: Earning's growth of the MAC seven.
Speaker 2: I'm going to go back middle of pandemic use of cash.
Speaker 2: I've seen two surprises for me because I'm not informed.
Speaker 2: I was shocked at the GM General Motors share buyback,
Speaker 2: and I saw a chart of the American Express AXP
Speaker 2: share buyback. Are we underplaying now? With all our worries
Speaker 2: in the geopolitical copity, are we underplaying just simple dividend
Speaker 2: growth and share buyback.
Speaker 9: Share buybacks are at a record this year in twenty
Speaker 9: twenty five, despite all of the uncertainty of believe, they're
Speaker 9: up about sixteen percent on a year over year basis.
Speaker 9: Companies are still having plenty of capital to put to work.
Speaker 9: I think the one incremental change is that what happened
Speaker 9: with these tech names is that they used to just
Speaker 9: buy back their stock. Now they're investing a lot in
Speaker 9: very heavy infrastructure.
Speaker 2: One quick more question here. You're all over the country
Speaker 2: talking to investors, retail and institutional. What's the mood out there?
Speaker 2: Is there a Dawson exuberance? I mean, your people out
Speaker 2: of control.
Speaker 9: I just got back from Boston at an academic slash
Speaker 9: institutional investor conference, and the takeaway from that is that
Speaker 9: everybody seems to agree that the world is changing, but
Speaker 9: nobody knows what to do about it.
Speaker 2: Me and that camp, I mean, the answer is they're
Speaker 2: going to adjust. I'm sorry You've been consistent about that time.
Speaker 2: Even right on that one.
Speaker 6: The smart guys at MIT our companals suggest companies and
Speaker 6: consumers adjust.
Speaker 2: You know, we have to work from home.
Speaker 4: Okay?
Speaker 2: Does Zaslov have a job? January first? He's got a
Speaker 2: big payday, no matter what happens. That's the battle of mine.
Speaker 2: That's the smartest thing I've hearded this morning is we'll
Speaker 2: talk about media here in a big Kim Dawson, thank
Speaker 2: you so much, greatly, appreciate it. A new edge this morning.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Let's get right to it. Every second counts. The newspapers would.
Speaker 8: List all right, let's start with this one. This was
Speaker 8: in the Bloomberg terminal. Wall Street bonuses expected to hit
Speaker 8: a high this year. Okay, we all know, right, big banks,
Speaker 8: they've been pulling in the profits, storing stocks more deal,
Speaker 8: how much are we talking. Well, you have this annual
Speaker 8: report from New York State Control and Thomas and Napoli,
Speaker 8: and it showed that profits at one hundred and thirty
Speaker 8: firms that belong to the New York Soak Exchange will
Speaker 8: they reached thirty point four billion dollars in the first
Speaker 8: half of the year. It's going to hit the highest
Speaker 8: level on record if that same pace continues, which means
Speaker 8: higher bonuses. So you have compensation expenses. They increased by
Speaker 8: almost ten percent in the first half of twenty twenty
Speaker 8: five from the prior year.
Speaker 2: And the tax take, Paul is extraordinary. Oh yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean it really changes the fiscal.
Speaker 6: Of the city, of the entire city, I mean global
Speaker 6: on the Wall Street and particularly here in New York City,
Speaker 6: such a big contributor to the tax.
Speaker 2: Base of the city. So good news there, all right,
Speaker 2: What else we got here?
Speaker 8: Okay, so this is up here rally herereet, we got
Speaker 8: Warner Brothers Discovery, right, all right, They're already mixed off
Speaker 8: three offers from Paramount's Guide Dance, including one that its
Speaker 8: chief executive David Zaslav, had a role in running the
Speaker 8: combined company.
Speaker 4: So this is in the.
Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal. They say they actually gave them the
Speaker 8: opportunit to serve with David Ellison as co chairman co
Speaker 8: CEO of the combined companies. They turned it down again,
Speaker 8: so that they turn it down three times already. They
Speaker 8: tried to keep increasing the price has not worked yet,
Speaker 8: Warner Brothers Discovery said they've gotten offer.
Speaker 6: I think money, Tom, I think you're right in my opinion.
Speaker 6: I think it's simply a bad share price. I don't
Speaker 6: think David Zaslov really cares for whether he has a
Speaker 6: role or not in the new company. But this is
Speaker 6: to value these assets. It's it's not gonna start with
Speaker 6: it too, let's put it that way.
Speaker 2: Well, okay, but is the value that cop like I
Speaker 2: think they have I Love Lucy? Is the value the
Speaker 2: rights to I Love Lucy? Or is it value to
Speaker 2: make the next Warner Brothers movie, which they've been on
Speaker 2: a tearn.
Speaker 6: It's all the above, plus it's cost synergies. The cost
Speaker 6: synergies are going to be real or yes, it's gonna
Speaker 6: be real. Unfortunately, it's gonna be jobs in Hollywood. But
Speaker 6: that's one of the big reasons why Paramount could pay
Speaker 6: a higher price.
Speaker 8: Arguably, you say, is gonna get paid no matter what,
Speaker 8: He's gonna get paid.
Speaker 2: Just the romance that they want the studios. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, you know, this is survival mode. This is
Speaker 2: survival mode.
Speaker 6: Tom. If you're Paramount, you probably cannot survive, much less
Speaker 6: thrive in this new world if you don't get bigger.
Speaker 2: It has to do a deal. I remember the d
Speaker 2: I remember the day Warner Brothers was taken out.
Speaker 6: I mean, this is this asset's changed hands starting with
Speaker 6: me back in two thousand when we advised AOL to
Speaker 6: buy Time Warner. That assets changed hands, you know, half
Speaker 6: a dozen times in the last twenty five years.
Speaker 8: Next, okay, this next one. I don't know if you've
Speaker 8: ever seen those scams. Sometimes you might get them on
Speaker 8: your text. Sometimes you get them on your.
Speaker 2: Email, and they seem to come more and more.
Speaker 8: Right, Yeah, my mom called the other She's like, I
Speaker 8: got a text that just says hello, don't respond, Like
Speaker 8: I get those all the time. Shut you don't know
Speaker 8: the number. So it's really become a thing. Americans have
Speaker 8: lost billions of dollars city scams. So the New York
Speaker 8: Times really has a good look into how this all happens.
Speaker 8: Say they're led by groups in Southeast Asia. They really
Speaker 8: dove into it. They say a lot of the scam
Speaker 8: centers rely on forced labor, and they do a couple
Speaker 8: things so they target victims. They basically win their trust
Speaker 8: over on social media on places like let's say, Facebook, WhatsApp, Telegram,
Speaker 8: so they start kind of winning them over. Sometimes they
Speaker 8: pose as a financial advisor and then they ask people
Speaker 8: to invest in this fake crypto you know fund. Or
Speaker 8: they use romance scams and they target divorce sees and widows,
Speaker 8: or maybe they they call people on the phone and
Speaker 8: saying that their bank representatives and they ask for their
Speaker 8: account or a pin number, social security mind.
Speaker 2: It's crazy.
Speaker 6: I am shocked whenever I'm out in public and I
Speaker 6: hear somebody answer their cell phone by saying hello. Have
Speaker 6: you ever answered your cell phone unless you don't know
Speaker 6: who's calling you? I mean, I don't even acknowledge any
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I miss a lot of calls. And to be perfectly honest,
Speaker 2: when they need me at Bloomberg, they have to call
Speaker 2: missus King. Yeah, I don't. That's why God made voicemail.
Speaker 8: I don't pick up my So you're not just ignoring me.
Speaker 2: About it, but be aware of that. We'll come back
Speaker 2: to this. This is not going away, Lisa Manteo, the newspapers.
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