Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Alright, well, we know that
Speaker 1: one of the ballot measures that passed in several states
Speaker 1: was legalizing marijuana. New Jersey was among them. So we
Speaker 1: thought it'd be nice to talk to somebody who has
Speaker 1: expertise in this, not just recently, but really from the
Speaker 1: very start, from when the very first state legalized marijuana.
Speaker 1: Wanda James as founder and CEO of Simply Pure Dispensary
Speaker 1: in Colorado. And Wanda, welcome, right, how are you doing
Speaker 1: this morning? Absolutely great? So talk to us about a business,
Speaker 1: first of all, in just in your area. How has
Speaker 1: it been since the beginning of the pandemic. How have
Speaker 1: you managed to us to write this out? So you
Speaker 1: know it's it's interesting because at the very beginning of
Speaker 1: the pandemic, I think that most of the business here
Speaker 1: in Colorado, you know, dropped to ridiculously low levels. UM,
Speaker 1: and then the mayor of Denver actually shut down dispensaries
Speaker 1: for about four hours, and the rush of people that
Speaker 1: came to the dispensaries and looker stores was so overwhelming
Speaker 1: that Denver actually in Colorado. UM, and I guess most
Speaker 1: places at this point called the cannabis businesses essential businesses.
Speaker 1: And we've remained open during the pandemic. Our sales UM
Speaker 1: have soared. UH. People have found that cannabis helps them
Speaker 1: get through UM, a pandemic and isolation and all of
Speaker 1: the things that we're dealing with. And then being a
Speaker 1: black owned business, UM, we have found that so many
Speaker 1: people have been looking to support black owned businesses, women
Speaker 1: owned businesses, and today because it's Veteran's day, veteran's own businesses,
Speaker 1: which is what we are. So it has actually um
Speaker 1: businesswise during the pandemic. UM, I believe cannabis has done
Speaker 1: very well. So wand you you've you've been in it
Speaker 1: since the very beginning. You're an absolute expert on how
Speaker 1: to do this. When you saw that ballot measures on
Speaker 1: legalizing marlana past in several states, did it make you,
Speaker 1: you know happy? I guess from your point of view
Speaker 1: that more states are legalizing it, or is it a
Speaker 1: step backwards in the sense that it is taking a
Speaker 1: step away from having it recognized at a federal level. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't know that it stops it from being recognized
Speaker 1: at a federal level. I believe that this is the
Speaker 1: court that is going to let politicians know on the
Speaker 1: federal level that it is time. Um. You know, I
Speaker 1: believe and and and don't quote me there maybe one
Speaker 1: or two, but I believe in just about every state
Speaker 1: in the nation right now, UM, there are cannabis laws
Speaker 1: on the books, meaning that it's either decriminalized so you
Speaker 1: won't go to jail for possessing it. Um, it's medically
Speaker 1: legal that you can buy it for medicinal purposes, or
Speaker 1: that it is legal in the adult use market, which
Speaker 1: means that anybody over the age of twenty one can purchase.
Speaker 1: So you know, most Americans right now have access have
Speaker 1: access to legal cannabis. So the federal level needs to
Speaker 1: get on board and follow what now. I believe it's
Speaker 1: almost sixty eight percent of Americans right now want to
Speaker 1: see full legalization across America. And as you know, sixty
Speaker 1: percent of Americans don't agree on anything apparently, except for cannabis,
Speaker 1: that's for sure. Wanta, have you managed to stay solo
Speaker 1: or how is simply pure? Looking at the next five
Speaker 1: to ten years, are you, you know, going to expand
Speaker 1: maybe moving to other states? Have you done that already? Yes?
Speaker 1: So this is a big place for us right now.
Speaker 1: We've been doing this now for ten years. We were
Speaker 1: the first African Americans legally licensed in America to own
Speaker 1: a dispensary, a growth facility UM, and an edible company.
Speaker 1: And so now we are ploised UM for national growth UM.
Speaker 1: Over the next few months, we will be looking at
Speaker 1: UM a a national prospect to be able to move
Speaker 1: UM simply pure stores and products UM throughout the United States.
Speaker 1: So we were absolutely thrilled to see more states legalized
Speaker 1: because with legalization also brings UM, you know, less opportunity
Speaker 1: for police harassment UM. And quite frankly, given the fact
Speaker 1: that of all black businesses in America have failed during
Speaker 1: the pandemic, we see cannabis entrepreneurism as a way of
Speaker 1: revitalizing UM the black and brown communities by allowing them
Speaker 1: to have these types of businesses. Well, Wanda, how are
Speaker 1: you looking at doing this has private equity approached you
Speaker 1: you know, might you think even about going public at
Speaker 1: some point through a spack or one of those types
Speaker 1: of entities. Yeah, so right now, you know, for the
Speaker 1: most part, it's all private equity. Um. You know, there's
Speaker 1: a few you know, public companies out of Canada that
Speaker 1: are currently investing um. But you know, it's still private equity.
Speaker 1: Be because as of today, we can't go to a
Speaker 1: bank and get alone. Heck, I can't even go to
Speaker 1: a bank and get a credit card in my business.
Speaker 1: So and in most cases we have a legal bank
Speaker 1: account which allows us to deposit, but most businesses don't
Speaker 1: even have a legal bank account in which they can
Speaker 1: deposit funds. So these are all of the reasons why
Speaker 1: legalization has to happen. When you have a multibillion dollar business.
Speaker 1: Here in Colorado, we do an excess of two billion
Speaker 1: dollars in sales in the state. Um, California will do
Speaker 1: well over ten billion dollars. So when you start to
Speaker 1: look at these kinds of numbers and we don't even
Speaker 1: have bank accounts, credit cards, atm cards, lines of credit,
Speaker 1: it seems absurd that we are still discussing whether this
Speaker 1: business should be legal or not when Americans have been
Speaker 1: using cannabis now since George Washington. And this is of
Speaker 1: course because the state rules on banking, which go back
Speaker 1: for you know, decades and generations wanted very very beefly
Speaker 1: wanted to ask about supply and whether that had been
Speaker 1: a problem during the pandemic, if if farmers weren't able
Speaker 1: to keep on staff and so on. So here in Colorado, no, um,
Speaker 1: you know, we are a finally tuned machine here in Colorado. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, I will say that we did definitely uh,
Speaker 1: you know, supply and demand. So the price of cannabis
Speaker 1: definitely skyrocketed through the summer months because of the demand
Speaker 1: for flower. Um. What we found, um, at least in
Speaker 1: my dispensary, is that the sales of when we say flower,
Speaker 1: actual bud um more than doubled. So we saw a
Speaker 1: rise in edibles and bait pens as well too. But
Speaker 1: the sale of flower actually went through the ceiling. So
Speaker 1: while we were able to manage demand, um, and we
Speaker 1: also have our own row facility, it was still demand
Speaker 1: is definitely up. I wanta just wonderful to speak with
Speaker 1: you today. Thank you for giving us your time and
Speaker 1: much appreciated. Want to James, founder and CEO of Simply
Speaker 1: Pure Dispensary in Colorado, opened ten years ago. In fact,
Speaker 1: well let's get back to the markets now and bringing
Speaker 1: Jim Poles and ce IO of the Little Old Group, Jim,
Speaker 1: where are we at? Has been just a fascinating few weeks, months,
Speaker 1: and indeed a few days just just fighting Monday sessions
Speaker 1: alone would have you scratching your head wondering what's going
Speaker 1: to happen next? What do you think? Will you know? Banni? I?
Speaker 1: I kind of think that the big ELpH of the
Speaker 1: room is the pace of economic growth. One anything else,
Speaker 1: We've got so many issues going on, but we of
Speaker 1: course had a super strong third quarter, and quite frankly,
Speaker 1: we're halfway through the fourth quarter and a lot of
Speaker 1: momentum is still very evident in the economy. Most of
Speaker 1: the reports that come out every day, whether it's I S, M,
Speaker 1: employment or confidence reports remained very strong um. And I
Speaker 1: think that's going to be the key if the economy,
Speaker 1: you know, the expectation for the fourth quarter might be
Speaker 1: around three. I think it might be more like five
Speaker 1: or six for the fourth quarter. And if it is,
Speaker 1: I think that's going to continue to be a really
Speaker 1: positive force for the market overall. And no, I think
Speaker 1: in some degree that reflects some of the change in
Speaker 1: leadership that we're seeing here a little bit starting to
Speaker 1: become more pronounced. Um. You know, certainly the vaccine helps,
Speaker 1: but we also are going to have the lagged impact
Speaker 1: of PAS stimulus that's going to help us next year.
Speaker 1: We've got a cent savings rate out there that could
Speaker 1: be spent. There was virtually the inventory to GDP ratios
Speaker 1: of almost record lows, So if that's spent on no inventory,
Speaker 1: that could have quite an impact. You're seeing a fair
Speaker 1: number of confident behaviors being displayed by both consumers, laborers
Speaker 1: and businesses. Consumers are buying big tickets. Labors, the job
Speaker 1: lever rates climbing, the more people now say jobs are
Speaker 1: plentiful and hard to get. Businesses capital good orders just
Speaker 1: went to new high So I think that's a sustainable
Speaker 1: sign as well. Overall. So I think there's a fair
Speaker 1: number of positive forces against right seen COVID cases to
Speaker 1: keep eat. You think it's so sustainable though, Jim, And
Speaker 1: what is this market thinking when you have a million
Speaker 1: cases in Texas alone, A million cases now in all
Speaker 1: of Italy, which means, you know, it's it's back with
Speaker 1: a vengeance in Europe, and it's probably only amount of
Speaker 1: time before it's back with the avengeance in various other places.
Speaker 1: It's already exponential in the United States. So what makes
Speaker 1: you think that the economy can can continue to recover
Speaker 1: like it was. Well, may be wrong, and it could
Speaker 1: certainly get bad enough, but you know, hope we have
Speaker 1: to shut down economic activity like we did March again
Speaker 1: would be a disaster, but I don't think we're going
Speaker 1: to get there money. You know, we had a surge
Speaker 1: in March up to around thirty thousand cases that created
Speaker 1: the death rate of about a day on average at
Speaker 1: the peaks. The second surge in the summer went up
Speaker 1: to sixty five thousand cases, more than double, but the
Speaker 1: death rate fell more more than a half to the
Speaker 1: round a thousand or a little over. Now we're five
Speaker 1: thousands daily cases and death rates still around a thousand,
Speaker 1: So I don't I think it reflects the fact that
Speaker 1: we've gotten a lot better of doing this. We protect
Speaker 1: more vulnerable groups than we did earlier. We we UH,
Speaker 1: we also have better treatments available UH to lower the
Speaker 1: lethality of this thing, which and then there's there's just
Speaker 1: a lot of the things we might shut down are
Speaker 1: already shut down. You know, We've got a lot of
Speaker 1: places where restaurant capacities or we can't probably do a
Speaker 1: lot more there. So I really think we're not going
Speaker 1: to have a meaningful nationwide shut down that radically reduces
Speaker 1: economic growth like we did in March. So if you
Speaker 1: had dry powder, or if you were thinking of taking
Speaker 1: some profits somewhere, where would you put that money now, Jim,
Speaker 1: in order to try and take advantage of what you
Speaker 1: see as an improving situation. Well, I think it's a
Speaker 1: portant to remain barbelled. I still think I think tech
Speaker 1: is gonna underperform over the next year because the economy
Speaker 1: picks up, it's going to favor the Hurning's growth broader marketplace.
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's going to fall apart. I
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna collapse. I think it's just gonna underperform.
Speaker 1: I think a day like today is a great example
Speaker 1: of why you still want to own some technology. But
Speaker 1: over the case, I think small cap stocks, um cyclical sectors,
Speaker 1: particularly the financials, the industrials and materials I think are
Speaker 1: very good places to look. And I would also start
Speaker 1: to lift my international exposure, particularly in emerging markets excluding China.
Speaker 1: I think China's gonna underperform next year, UM, but the
Speaker 1: other emerging markets probably do pretty well. Overall. I think
Speaker 1: there's a bountiful list of opportunities, in part because this
Speaker 1: market has been so concentrated among mega caps, it's left
Speaker 1: a lot of the marketplace. I think this will has
Speaker 1: a lot of value and they have greater cyclical earnings
Speaker 1: leverage here for going into two thousand twenty one. Are
Speaker 1: we completely dependent on the Federal Reserve though, Jim and
Speaker 1: we only really have a half minute left? UM, I
Speaker 1: don't believe so. I UM. I think that the Fed
Speaker 1: is going to have to back away by economy remains
Speaker 1: relatively healthy. I think it's gonna have to slow UM
Speaker 1: bond purchases, quantitative easing, and allow bond yields to climb.
Speaker 1: They might already be starting to do that a little bit.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to have bond yields to go
Speaker 1: up next year, and uh, if they do, that could
Speaker 1: actually build confidence. If we go back above a one
Speaker 1: per cent treasure I think people worry less about negative
Speaker 1: yields will also be assigned of economic strength. It could
Speaker 1: fuel more animal spirits. Jim, it's always lovely chatting with you.
Speaker 1: Thank you for that. I forgot to ask you, however,
Speaker 1: thing is in your home state, But I guess we
Speaker 1: have to do that the next time. That is Jim Paulson,
Speaker 1: c I O of the Little Old Group. Well, we're
Speaker 1: getting a lot of vaccine news in the last few days,
Speaker 1: which on the one hand is fabulous, but perhaps we
Speaker 1: should hit the brakes just a little bit. We'll see
Speaker 1: with our next guest, who heads up the global sector
Speaker 1: leadership for healthcare at Third Bridge. Let's welcome now, Jallen Mamadova. Jlen.
Speaker 1: This vaccine news from Fiser and also Maderna, we know
Speaker 1: is coming close to you know, being able to announce something,
Speaker 1: and there are plenty more companies out there being able
Speaker 1: to announce antibody type therapeutics or vaccines in the next while.
Speaker 1: Talk to us about the downsides of this current spate
Speaker 1: of news. Thanks for having me, Ronny. So definitely the
Speaker 1: market is self reacting a bit too early with has
Speaker 1: been the case of all the news around COVID this
Speaker 1: is good news and that this close served as a
Speaker 1: positive not to all of the vaccine candidates start getting
Speaker 1: the like proteins, but definitely a positive not for the pipeline,
Speaker 1: but without that data on efficacy for the elderly, your ability,
Speaker 1: and additional safety collection which will probably continue even if
Speaker 1: an fd e WAY is granted, it is definitely too
Speaker 1: student to call this a winner. Um also to know
Speaker 1: that this requires some multiple storage requirements and that needs
Speaker 1: present additional challenges. So if we do have a candidate
Speaker 1: with more convenience dozing, is your storage, better efficacy and
Speaker 1: elderly and better your ability, this will definitely ad fiser
Speaker 1: with whatever initial upstates they take on. Now, we do
Speaker 1: expect an e way, but it's probably going to be limited,
Speaker 1: as we saw was Lilas e way earlier on on
Speaker 1: their monoclonal antibody, essentially restricting this to people of their impurity. Yes, well, well,
Speaker 1: I was just gonna ask on the storage, because this
Speaker 1: will be a problem even in places like CDs and
Speaker 1: so on. What companies are working on this problem storing
Speaker 1: something at a reasonable price at minus what between seventy
Speaker 1: and a hundred degrees? Yes, minus seminie celsius. Maderna is
Speaker 1: another minus twenty selsie. So I've actually Sizer and Maderna
Speaker 1: are trying to tweak this and bring it, bring this
Speaker 1: up to a more manageable temperature where hospitals are not
Speaker 1: going to have to buy additional you know, fridges and
Speaker 1: storage equipment to make this a viable vaccine candidate. But
Speaker 1: when you look at Mirk, Mirk actually has had to
Speaker 1: use ultra coold storage for its a bowl of vaccine.
Speaker 1: But uh, they were never able to tweak it, and
Speaker 1: ultimately this may not be as big of a challenge
Speaker 1: as they do well on the efficacy front, there's definitely
Speaker 1: a way of start of comventing this. Again with Mark
Speaker 1: they were able to distribute to gl Congo right in
Speaker 1: the US. They are much better kind of storage capability.
Speaker 1: Having said that, though it doesn't really seem like they
Speaker 1: can tweak this anymore than it is now, Maderna does
Speaker 1: have an upper hand in this and that it is
Speaker 1: negative twenty celsius, so it's not extreme as Speiser, But
Speaker 1: having said that, they have additional issues when it comes
Speaker 1: to potential distribution factory. But ultimately it's going to come
Speaker 1: down to their contracting uh, contracts being in many factor
Speaker 1: and relationships that are in place. Some art experts are
Speaker 1: pretty skeptical that they can tweak the storage requirements if
Speaker 1: that would require additional engineering capability. I know, it's fascinating, right,
Speaker 1: And the idea that there's a lot of short interest
Speaker 1: in Maderna would also give you pause. I mean, there's
Speaker 1: obviously a big contingent of money, be it a smart
Speaker 1: money or dumb money out there that is betting against MODERNA.
Speaker 1: So what is your thinking on when we'll have something workable? Jallen?
Speaker 1: When we will have something workable if if we define
Speaker 1: that as something that's available for mass distributions. So let's
Speaker 1: say right now, you know Fiser has signed some supply
Speaker 1: agreements UM around promising to supply rents the under million
Speaker 1: doses by mid next year UM. Really we're thinking about
Speaker 1: mass administration probably ACCU three of the next year at
Speaker 1: earliest UM, and that's across the patient populations, and maybe
Speaker 1: mid next year UM some form of voting available for
Speaker 1: the at risk or the any population. So those are
Speaker 1: the healthcare workers and the elderly. So really, even though
Speaker 1: it was good news, and you know, we have to
Speaker 1: have this good news before we can get the next
Speaker 1: little bit of good news. It really doesn't speed up
Speaker 1: the process at all, more than more than we thought.
Speaker 1: It just means that we are still on the right path. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's exactly what. It's the right path, but doesn't speed anything.
Speaker 1: If anything, we've been consistently seeing delays um the promises
Speaker 1: for readouts earlier on and those have been pushed back
Speaker 1: with SIS or biotic really being cation point. What are
Speaker 1: you doing at Third Bridge in terms of investment or
Speaker 1: in terms of advising on investment, So a third Bach
Speaker 1: we don't directly advice on investment, but we do help
Speaker 1: with is the due diligence components for our institutional investors,
Speaker 1: and we speak to experts that give guidance across the
Speaker 1: vaccine place. The most recently, for example, we have been
Speaker 1: focusing on Mark and uh Novo vaccine vaccine candidate well
Speaker 1: for the America, Well it is a later entrance. Their
Speaker 1: VFC platform and their v Diesel Space platform actually could
Speaker 1: potentially bode well when it comes to you know, single
Speaker 1: dosage and UPDAK in the elderly based on the efficacy
Speaker 1: that they have shown once they're proven platforms, they also
Speaker 1: potentially have an oral formulation. And we've also been focusing
Speaker 1: on novavax Um for a while now because their anti
Speaker 1: body responses have been pretty amazing and we uh we
Speaker 1: weren't surprised by the FDA fast expisignation which they received
Speaker 1: earlier this week. We're pretty much out of time, but
Speaker 1: can you give us a rundown very briefly on the
Speaker 1: companies that are concentrating on things like distribution and refrigeration
Speaker 1: so we can continue to keep an eye on those two, Yes,
Speaker 1: for sure. So right now the main focus is s Fizer,
Speaker 1: Biontec and Maderna and their supplier relationships with certain CDMs,
Speaker 1: But those storage requirements and manufacturing of them will actually
Speaker 1: come down to the bio farma itself and the capability
Speaker 1: that they have at hand. And again case some point
Speaker 1: is is marked with their ultracol storage solution. Wow amazing.
Speaker 1: So it's the companies themselves that are going to have
Speaker 1: to solve that problem. Jillen, thank you for joining us.
Speaker 1: We do have to catch up with you again very soon.
Speaker 1: Jillen Momadova is Global sector lead for healthcare at Third Bridge.
Speaker 1: But the President elect is extraordinarily close to veterans. This
Speaker 1: on Veterans Day. No better person to talk to about
Speaker 1: what might happen under a Biden presidency for veterans than
Speaker 1: to be Harsha. This, of course, as well as President
Speaker 1: Trump and Vice President Mike Pence took a tour of
Speaker 1: Arlington National Cemetery for the day. That was in it, Toby,
Speaker 1: you know, borrowing some kind of strange thing happening. It
Speaker 1: does look like we're going to get a Biden presidency,
Speaker 1: which means possibly some good news for veterans. Is there
Speaker 1: something that Biden will put on his list to get
Speaker 1: accomplished for these people that are still experiencing hardships and
Speaker 1: suffering and oh discrimination. Weirdly, you know, so many generations
Speaker 1: after their problems were first brought to light. Thanks Bunny,
Speaker 1: I'm happy to be here. Um. I wish that Biden
Speaker 1: had said, um, anything that was more specific during the campaign.
Speaker 1: He said all of the right things, um, but but
Speaker 1: sort of deep generalizations that, um, you know, veterans need
Speaker 1: the jobs that they need, they need the care that
Speaker 1: they deserve, things like that, But there really wasn't anything specific. Um.
Speaker 1: It's it's not a huge campaign issue. No, it's not.
Speaker 1: What is the biggest need for veterans right now to UM,
Speaker 1: I think sort of the overwriting topic is mental health care. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, as we know, the veterans have a higher
Speaker 1: suicide rate than the population in general. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: PTSD is now finally considered a legitimate diagnosis. UM. And uh,
Speaker 1: it's just it's very hard u A to supply enough
Speaker 1: healthcare and be often the trick is bringing people into
Speaker 1: mental healthcare. Veterans, not not to de cliche about veterans
Speaker 1: tend to be you know, think of themselves as tough
Speaker 1: and self sufficient. UM. And it's often hard to bring
Speaker 1: people into you know, it's sort of broad based mental
Speaker 1: health care. Yeah, it's UM, there's so many problems out there.
Speaker 1: But you know, if anyone should have a stake in
Speaker 1: our national defense or at least, you know, an opinion
Speaker 1: we should listen to, it's our veterans. What do they
Speaker 1: think of the military changes that we're seeing right now
Speaker 1: or the changes of the Pentagon? UM? And and what
Speaker 1: what what should be there instead? Yeah, I don't want to,
Speaker 1: I don't want to to lump them all into one
Speaker 1: voice or one opinion. And there's not really polling on this. UM.
Speaker 1: I would imagine there's deep dissatisfaction, especially with the Shenanigans
Speaker 1: that Trump has been up to this week. UM. You
Speaker 1: know it's funny that that Mark Esper was called yasper
Speaker 1: um behind his back and considered this Trump loyalist, and
Speaker 1: yet now Trump astared him for not being sufficiently loyal
Speaker 1: and put in um or replacement who I don't want
Speaker 1: to say unqualified, but certainly under qualified. UM. And UM,
Speaker 1: you know I I just don't think this makes anyone happy.
Speaker 1: Um inside the services, polling is is is done. Um,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit sketchy. UM, I guess, as polling
Speaker 1: is everywhere these days. But there's there's a little question
Speaker 1: that President Trump's um uh ratings among the officer class
Speaker 1: UM declined heavily over his four years UM to no depths.
Speaker 1: Probably that any Republican UM has, any Republican incumbent has
Speaker 1: reached uh certainly in modern history. That brings us to Biden.
Speaker 1: And you know, yes, I'm not We could talk for
Speaker 1: a long time about about how President Tromp treated the
Speaker 1: military and and the arms of the military, but let's
Speaker 1: let's talk about Biden. Will Biden's you know, domestic policy
Speaker 1: and foreign policy, national security policy, as it relates to
Speaker 1: the various branches of the military. Will it be significantly
Speaker 1: different to what we have now? Yeah, I mean the
Speaker 1: headline issue is the remaining troops in Afghanistan. UM, and
Speaker 1: Biden's uh, you know, the positions that he put out
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail weren't all that much different than Trump's.
Speaker 1: He'd like to bring them home, but unlike Trump, he
Speaker 1: puts a greater emphasis on the on the ground conditions
Speaker 1: UM and simply making sure that Afghanistan won't collapse. UM
Speaker 1: as soon as our troops are gone. Remember, there's not
Speaker 1: that many. There's about twelve thousand UM, which is not
Speaker 1: to not to be a little the sacrifice and the
Speaker 1: danger that they're facing, UM. But compared to the height
Speaker 1: of these two wars, UM, it's it's it's a fairly
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to see in significant it's
Speaker 1: a very small amount of troops left there. In terms
Speaker 1: of broader issues, UM, there were a lot of concerns
Speaker 1: I think about the Pentagon budget UM being slashed if
Speaker 1: the Democrats won the presidency and UM took control of Congress.
Speaker 1: And I'm not particularly worried about that. UM. The Pentic
Speaker 1: budget came out of UH Congress the other day. For
Speaker 1: twenty one it was seventy was the top line. And
Speaker 1: then you know, when you factor in the war funding
Speaker 1: plus the money that goes to the nuclear program and
Speaker 1: the Energy Department, it's gonna it's gonna be about seven
Speaker 1: thirty million, which is about tied for the highest it's
Speaker 1: ever been. UM. Democrats will want to pull back on
Speaker 1: that a little bit, but I wouldn't imagine by more
Speaker 1: than a percentage or two. UM. I think the bigger
Speaker 1: changes are going to be on what that money is
Speaker 1: spent on. UM. And I think we're going to see
Speaker 1: some big ticket items, you know, trimmed back. That would
Speaker 1: be the aircraft carriers, UM, the brigade combat groups, the
Speaker 1: things that are that are super money intensive. UM. And
Speaker 1: I think that will you know, that will go to
Speaker 1: things that get better bang from the bunk, better bang
Speaker 1: for the buck, which is drone for the most part,
Speaker 1: and not just little drones like we think of, but UM, submarines, UH,
Speaker 1: long range strategic bombers. Lots of things can be done unmanned.
Speaker 1: So essentially we'll be returning to the Obama era for
Speaker 1: that type of policy. Yeah, UM, I I think we Will.
Speaker 1: I think the Pentagon has always been headed in that direction. UM.
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of politics involved. You have
Speaker 1: to remember that the in that gigantic seven hundred billion
Speaker 1: dollar UM Pentagon spending bill, almost every penny of it
Speaker 1: is accounted for by Congress and says this has to
Speaker 1: go to this, This has to go to that, this
Speaker 1: has to go to that. UM and UM more flexibility
Speaker 1: is what the Pentagon really needs. UM. Pentagon, the Congress
Speaker 1: has to allow the Pentagon to spend that, you know,
Speaker 1: almost a trillion dollars in UM in the ways that
Speaker 1: it feels it needs to. Toby, will Joe Biden be
Speaker 1: any more interventionist than President Obama because the President of
Speaker 1: Alma made it, made it, you know, a high bar
Speaker 1: to intervene. Yeah, UM, well you know we we did
Speaker 1: intervene in Libya. UM I would say no, I don't
Speaker 1: think so. I think interventionism is out of favor with
Speaker 1: both parties at this point. UM. I think that UM,
Speaker 1: there will be a much bigger emphasis now on UM
Speaker 1: using diplomacy and especially on using alliances UM to shore
Speaker 1: up America's security needs, particularly in terms of China but
Speaker 1: also Russia. UM. I think that the big the big
Speaker 1: change will be that you know place that President Trump
Speaker 1: basically tried to extort our Asian allies, Japan and South
Speaker 1: Korea by making them pay more money to host US troops.
Speaker 1: And that pressure I think will be relieved. And it
Speaker 1: was an idiotic strategy, um not to put to find
Speaker 1: a point on it, because it's cheaper actually to store
Speaker 1: our troops, to have our troops stationed abroad than it
Speaker 1: is to keep them at home, and we have to
Speaker 1: pay them no matter where they are, and there's huge
Speaker 1: security dividends played by that, Toby, It's a fascinating conversation
Speaker 1: we just had. I'd love to have longer. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about the Middle East as well, because that you know,
Speaker 1: it may not be front of mind, given all of
Speaker 1: the various parts of the world that are front of mind,
Speaker 1: but it's definitely going to be something that Biden administration
Speaker 1: will have to have a plan and for. Toby Harshaw
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Opinion editor. Here for Bloomberg Opinion. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen
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Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and
Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before
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