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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Alright, well, we know that

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Speaker 1: one of the ballot measures that passed in several states

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Speaker 1: was legalizing marijuana. New Jersey was among them. So we

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Speaker 1: thought it'd be nice to talk to somebody who has

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Speaker 1: expertise in this, not just recently, but really from the

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Speaker 1: very start, from when the very first state legalized marijuana.

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Speaker 1: Wanda James as founder and CEO of Simply Pure Dispensary

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Speaker 1: in Colorado. And Wanda, welcome, right, how are you doing

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Speaker 1: this morning? Absolutely great? So talk to us about a business,

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Speaker 1: first of all, in just in your area. How has

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Speaker 1: it been since the beginning of the pandemic. How have

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Speaker 1: you managed to us to write this out? So you

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Speaker 1: know it's it's interesting because at the very beginning of

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, I think that most of the business here

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, you know, dropped to ridiculously low levels. UM,

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Speaker 1: and then the mayor of Denver actually shut down dispensaries

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Speaker 1: for about four hours, and the rush of people that

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Speaker 1: came to the dispensaries and looker stores was so overwhelming

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Speaker 1: that Denver actually in Colorado. UM, and I guess most

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Speaker 1: places at this point called the cannabis businesses essential businesses.

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Speaker 1: And we've remained open during the pandemic. Our sales UM

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Speaker 1: have soared. UH. People have found that cannabis helps them

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Speaker 1: get through UM, a pandemic and isolation and all of

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Speaker 1: the things that we're dealing with. And then being a

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Speaker 1: black owned business, UM, we have found that so many

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Speaker 1: people have been looking to support black owned businesses, women

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Speaker 1: owned businesses, and today because it's Veteran's day, veteran's own businesses,

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Speaker 1: which is what we are. So it has actually um

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Speaker 1: businesswise during the pandemic. UM, I believe cannabis has done

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Speaker 1: very well. So wand you you've you've been in it

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Speaker 1: since the very beginning. You're an absolute expert on how

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Speaker 1: to do this. When you saw that ballot measures on

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Speaker 1: legalizing marlana past in several states, did it make you,

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Speaker 1: you know happy? I guess from your point of view

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Speaker 1: that more states are legalizing it, or is it a

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Speaker 1: step backwards in the sense that it is taking a

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Speaker 1: step away from having it recognized at a federal level. Um,

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Speaker 1: I don't know that it stops it from being recognized

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Speaker 1: at a federal level. I believe that this is the

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Speaker 1: court that is going to let politicians know on the

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Speaker 1: federal level that it is time. Um. You know, I

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Speaker 1: believe and and and don't quote me there maybe one

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Speaker 1: or two, but I believe in just about every state

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Speaker 1: in the nation right now, UM, there are cannabis laws

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Speaker 1: on the books, meaning that it's either decriminalized so you

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Speaker 1: won't go to jail for possessing it. Um, it's medically

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Speaker 1: legal that you can buy it for medicinal purposes, or

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Speaker 1: that it is legal in the adult use market, which

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Speaker 1: means that anybody over the age of twenty one can purchase.

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Speaker 1: So you know, most Americans right now have access have

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Speaker 1: access to legal cannabis. So the federal level needs to

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Speaker 1: get on board and follow what now. I believe it's

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Speaker 1: almost sixty eight percent of Americans right now want to

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Speaker 1: see full legalization across America. And as you know, sixty

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Speaker 1: percent of Americans don't agree on anything apparently, except for cannabis,

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Speaker 1: that's for sure. Wanta, have you managed to stay solo

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Speaker 1: or how is simply pure? Looking at the next five

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Speaker 1: to ten years, are you, you know, going to expand

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Speaker 1: maybe moving to other states? Have you done that already? Yes?

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Speaker 1: So this is a big place for us right now.

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Speaker 1: We've been doing this now for ten years. We were

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Speaker 1: the first African Americans legally licensed in America to own

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Speaker 1: a dispensary, a growth facility UM, and an edible company.

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Speaker 1: And so now we are ploised UM for national growth UM.

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Speaker 1: Over the next few months, we will be looking at

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Speaker 1: UM a a national prospect to be able to move

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Speaker 1: UM simply pure stores and products UM throughout the United States.

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Speaker 1: So we were absolutely thrilled to see more states legalized

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Speaker 1: because with legalization also brings UM, you know, less opportunity

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Speaker 1: for police harassment UM. And quite frankly, given the fact

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Speaker 1: that of all black businesses in America have failed during

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, we see cannabis entrepreneurism as a way of

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Speaker 1: revitalizing UM the black and brown communities by allowing them

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Speaker 1: to have these types of businesses. Well, Wanda, how are

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Speaker 1: you looking at doing this has private equity approached you

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Speaker 1: you know, might you think even about going public at

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Speaker 1: some point through a spack or one of those types

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Speaker 1: of entities. Yeah, so right now, you know, for the

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Speaker 1: most part, it's all private equity. Um. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: a few you know, public companies out of Canada that

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Speaker 1: are currently investing um. But you know, it's still private equity.

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Speaker 1: Be because as of today, we can't go to a

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Speaker 1: bank and get alone. Heck, I can't even go to

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Speaker 1: a bank and get a credit card in my business.

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Speaker 1: So and in most cases we have a legal bank

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Speaker 1: account which allows us to deposit, but most businesses don't

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Speaker 1: even have a legal bank account in which they can

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Speaker 1: deposit funds. So these are all of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: legalization has to happen. When you have a multibillion dollar business.

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Speaker 1: Here in Colorado, we do an excess of two billion

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Speaker 1: dollars in sales in the state. Um, California will do

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Speaker 1: well over ten billion dollars. So when you start to

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Speaker 1: look at these kinds of numbers and we don't even

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Speaker 1: have bank accounts, credit cards, atm cards, lines of credit,

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Speaker 1: it seems absurd that we are still discussing whether this

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Speaker 1: business should be legal or not when Americans have been

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Speaker 1: using cannabis now since George Washington. And this is of

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Speaker 1: course because the state rules on banking, which go back

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Speaker 1: for you know, decades and generations wanted very very beefly

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Speaker 1: wanted to ask about supply and whether that had been

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Speaker 1: a problem during the pandemic, if if farmers weren't able

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Speaker 1: to keep on staff and so on. So here in Colorado, no, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, we are a finally tuned machine here in Colorado. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, I will say that we did definitely uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, supply and demand. So the price of cannabis

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Speaker 1: definitely skyrocketed through the summer months because of the demand

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Speaker 1: for flower. Um. What we found, um, at least in

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Speaker 1: my dispensary, is that the sales of when we say flower,

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Speaker 1: actual bud um more than doubled. So we saw a

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Speaker 1: rise in edibles and bait pens as well too. But

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Speaker 1: the sale of flower actually went through the ceiling. So

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Speaker 1: while we were able to manage demand, um, and we

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Speaker 1: also have our own row facility, it was still demand

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Speaker 1: is definitely up. I wanta just wonderful to speak with

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Speaker 1: you today. Thank you for giving us your time and

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Speaker 1: much appreciated. Want to James, founder and CEO of Simply

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Speaker 1: Pure Dispensary in Colorado, opened ten years ago. In fact,

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Speaker 1: well let's get back to the markets now and bringing

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Speaker 1: Jim Poles and ce IO of the Little Old Group, Jim,

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Speaker 1: where are we at? Has been just a fascinating few weeks, months,

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Speaker 1: and indeed a few days just just fighting Monday sessions

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Speaker 1: alone would have you scratching your head wondering what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen next? What do you think? Will you know? Banni? I?

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Speaker 1: I kind of think that the big ELpH of the

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Speaker 1: room is the pace of economic growth. One anything else,

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Speaker 1: We've got so many issues going on, but we of

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Speaker 1: course had a super strong third quarter, and quite frankly,

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Speaker 1: we're halfway through the fourth quarter and a lot of

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Speaker 1: momentum is still very evident in the economy. Most of

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Speaker 1: the reports that come out every day, whether it's I S, M,

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Speaker 1: employment or confidence reports remained very strong um. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's going to be the key if the economy,

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Speaker 1: you know, the expectation for the fourth quarter might be

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Speaker 1: around three. I think it might be more like five

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Speaker 1: or six for the fourth quarter. And if it is,

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to continue to be a really

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Speaker 1: positive force for the market overall. And no, I think

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Speaker 1: in some degree that reflects some of the change in

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Speaker 1: leadership that we're seeing here a little bit starting to

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Speaker 1: become more pronounced. Um. You know, certainly the vaccine helps,

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Speaker 1: but we also are going to have the lagged impact

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Speaker 1: of PAS stimulus that's going to help us next year.

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Speaker 1: We've got a cent savings rate out there that could

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Speaker 1: be spent. There was virtually the inventory to GDP ratios

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Speaker 1: of almost record lows, So if that's spent on no inventory,

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Speaker 1: that could have quite an impact. You're seeing a fair

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Speaker 1: number of confident behaviors being displayed by both consumers, laborers

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Speaker 1: and businesses. Consumers are buying big tickets. Labors, the job

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Speaker 1: lever rates climbing, the more people now say jobs are

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Speaker 1: plentiful and hard to get. Businesses capital good orders just

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Speaker 1: went to new high So I think that's a sustainable

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Speaker 1: sign as well. Overall. So I think there's a fair

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Speaker 1: number of positive forces against right seen COVID cases to

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Speaker 1: keep eat. You think it's so sustainable though, Jim, And

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Speaker 1: what is this market thinking when you have a million

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Speaker 1: cases in Texas alone, A million cases now in all

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Speaker 1: of Italy, which means, you know, it's it's back with

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Speaker 1: a vengeance in Europe, and it's probably only amount of

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Speaker 1: time before it's back with the avengeance in various other places.

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Speaker 1: It's already exponential in the United States. So what makes

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Speaker 1: you think that the economy can can continue to recover

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Speaker 1: like it was. Well, may be wrong, and it could

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Speaker 1: certainly get bad enough, but you know, hope we have

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Speaker 1: to shut down economic activity like we did March again

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Speaker 1: would be a disaster, but I don't think we're going

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Speaker 1: to get there money. You know, we had a surge

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Speaker 1: in March up to around thirty thousand cases that created

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Speaker 1: the death rate of about a day on average at

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Speaker 1: the peaks. The second surge in the summer went up

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Speaker 1: to sixty five thousand cases, more than double, but the

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Speaker 1: death rate fell more more than a half to the

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Speaker 1: round a thousand or a little over. Now we're five

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Speaker 1: thousands daily cases and death rates still around a thousand,

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Speaker 1: So I don't I think it reflects the fact that

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Speaker 1: we've gotten a lot better of doing this. We protect

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Speaker 1: more vulnerable groups than we did earlier. We we UH,

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Speaker 1: we also have better treatments available UH to lower the

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Speaker 1: lethality of this thing, which and then there's there's just

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Speaker 1: a lot of the things we might shut down are

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Speaker 1: already shut down. You know, We've got a lot of

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Speaker 1: places where restaurant capacities or we can't probably do a

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Speaker 1: lot more there. So I really think we're not going

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Speaker 1: to have a meaningful nationwide shut down that radically reduces

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Speaker 1: economic growth like we did in March. So if you

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Speaker 1: had dry powder, or if you were thinking of taking

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Speaker 1: some profits somewhere, where would you put that money now, Jim,

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Speaker 1: in order to try and take advantage of what you

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Speaker 1: see as an improving situation. Well, I think it's a

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Speaker 1: portant to remain barbelled. I still think I think tech

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Speaker 1: is gonna underperform over the next year because the economy

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Speaker 1: picks up, it's going to favor the Hurning's growth broader marketplace.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think it's going to fall apart. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna collapse. I think it's just gonna underperform.

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Speaker 1: I think a day like today is a great example

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Speaker 1: of why you still want to own some technology. But

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Speaker 1: over the case, I think small cap stocks, um cyclical sectors,

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Speaker 1: particularly the financials, the industrials and materials I think are

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Speaker 1: very good places to look. And I would also start

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Speaker 1: to lift my international exposure, particularly in emerging markets excluding China.

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Speaker 1: I think China's gonna underperform next year, UM, but the

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Speaker 1: other emerging markets probably do pretty well. Overall. I think

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Speaker 1: there's a bountiful list of opportunities, in part because this

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Speaker 1: market has been so concentrated among mega caps, it's left

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Speaker 1: a lot of the marketplace. I think this will has

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Speaker 1: a lot of value and they have greater cyclical earnings

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Speaker 1: leverage here for going into two thousand twenty one. Are

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Speaker 1: we completely dependent on the Federal Reserve though, Jim and

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Speaker 1: we only really have a half minute left? UM, I

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Speaker 1: don't believe so. I UM. I think that the Fed

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Speaker 1: is going to have to back away by economy remains

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Speaker 1: relatively healthy. I think it's gonna have to slow UM

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Speaker 1: bond purchases, quantitative easing, and allow bond yields to climb.

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Speaker 1: They might already be starting to do that a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to have bond yields to go

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Speaker 1: up next year, and uh, if they do, that could

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Speaker 1: actually build confidence. If we go back above a one

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Speaker 1: per cent treasure I think people worry less about negative

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Speaker 1: yields will also be assigned of economic strength. It could

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Speaker 1: fuel more animal spirits. Jim, it's always lovely chatting with you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for that. I forgot to ask you, however,

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Speaker 1: thing is in your home state, But I guess we

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Speaker 1: have to do that the next time. That is Jim Paulson,

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Speaker 1: c I O of the Little Old Group. Well, we're

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Speaker 1: getting a lot of vaccine news in the last few days,

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Speaker 1: which on the one hand is fabulous, but perhaps we

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Speaker 1: should hit the brakes just a little bit. We'll see

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Speaker 1: with our next guest, who heads up the global sector

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Speaker 1: leadership for healthcare at Third Bridge. Let's welcome now, Jallen Mamadova. Jlen.

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Speaker 1: This vaccine news from Fiser and also Maderna, we know

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Speaker 1: is coming close to you know, being able to announce something,

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Speaker 1: and there are plenty more companies out there being able

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Speaker 1: to announce antibody type therapeutics or vaccines in the next while.

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Speaker 1: Talk to us about the downsides of this current spate

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Speaker 1: of news. Thanks for having me, Ronny. So definitely the

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Speaker 1: market is self reacting a bit too early with has

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Speaker 1: been the case of all the news around COVID this

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Speaker 1: is good news and that this close served as a

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Speaker 1: positive not to all of the vaccine candidates start getting

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Speaker 1: the like proteins, but definitely a positive not for the pipeline,

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Speaker 1: but without that data on efficacy for the elderly, your ability,

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Speaker 1: and additional safety collection which will probably continue even if

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Speaker 1: an fd e WAY is granted, it is definitely too

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Speaker 1: student to call this a winner. Um also to know

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Speaker 1: that this requires some multiple storage requirements and that needs

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Speaker 1: present additional challenges. So if we do have a candidate

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Speaker 1: with more convenience dozing, is your storage, better efficacy and

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Speaker 1: elderly and better your ability, this will definitely ad fiser

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Speaker 1: with whatever initial upstates they take on. Now, we do

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Speaker 1: expect an e way, but it's probably going to be limited,

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Speaker 1: as we saw was Lilas e way earlier on on

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Speaker 1: their monoclonal antibody, essentially restricting this to people of their impurity. Yes, well, well,

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Speaker 1: I was just gonna ask on the storage, because this

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Speaker 1: will be a problem even in places like CDs and

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Speaker 1: so on. What companies are working on this problem storing

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Speaker 1: something at a reasonable price at minus what between seventy

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Speaker 1: and a hundred degrees? Yes, minus seminie celsius. Maderna is

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Speaker 1: another minus twenty selsie. So I've actually Sizer and Maderna

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Speaker 1: are trying to tweak this and bring it, bring this

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Speaker 1: up to a more manageable temperature where hospitals are not

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Speaker 1: going to have to buy additional you know, fridges and

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Speaker 1: storage equipment to make this a viable vaccine candidate. But

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Speaker 1: when you look at Mirk, Mirk actually has had to

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Speaker 1: use ultra coold storage for its a bowl of vaccine.

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Speaker 1: But uh, they were never able to tweak it, and

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Speaker 1: ultimately this may not be as big of a challenge

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Speaker 1: as they do well on the efficacy front, there's definitely

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Speaker 1: a way of start of comventing this. Again with Mark

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Speaker 1: they were able to distribute to gl Congo right in

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Speaker 1: the US. They are much better kind of storage capability.

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Speaker 1: Having said that, though it doesn't really seem like they

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Speaker 1: can tweak this anymore than it is now, Maderna does

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Speaker 1: have an upper hand in this and that it is

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Speaker 1: negative twenty celsius, so it's not extreme as Speiser, But

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Speaker 1: having said that, they have additional issues when it comes

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Speaker 1: to potential distribution factory. But ultimately it's going to come

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Speaker 1: down to their contracting uh, contracts being in many factor

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Speaker 1: and relationships that are in place. Some art experts are

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Speaker 1: pretty skeptical that they can tweak the storage requirements if

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Speaker 1: that would require additional engineering capability. I know, it's fascinating, right,

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Speaker 1: And the idea that there's a lot of short interest

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Speaker 1: in Maderna would also give you pause. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: obviously a big contingent of money, be it a smart

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Speaker 1: money or dumb money out there that is betting against MODERNA.

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Speaker 1: So what is your thinking on when we'll have something workable? Jallen?

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Speaker 1: When we will have something workable if if we define

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Speaker 1: that as something that's available for mass distributions. So let's

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Speaker 1: say right now, you know Fiser has signed some supply

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Speaker 1: agreements UM around promising to supply rents the under million

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Speaker 1: doses by mid next year UM. Really we're thinking about

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Speaker 1: mass administration probably ACCU three of the next year at

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Speaker 1: earliest UM, and that's across the patient populations, and maybe

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Speaker 1: mid next year UM some form of voting available for

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Speaker 1: the at risk or the any population. So those are

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Speaker 1: the healthcare workers and the elderly. So really, even though

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Speaker 1: it was good news, and you know, we have to

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Speaker 1: have this good news before we can get the next

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Speaker 1: little bit of good news. It really doesn't speed up

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Speaker 1: the process at all, more than more than we thought.

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Speaker 1: It just means that we are still on the right path. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's exactly what. It's the right path, but doesn't speed anything.

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Speaker 1: If anything, we've been consistently seeing delays um the promises

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Speaker 1: for readouts earlier on and those have been pushed back

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Speaker 1: with SIS or biotic really being cation point. What are

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Speaker 1: you doing at Third Bridge in terms of investment or

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Speaker 1: in terms of advising on investment, So a third Bach

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Speaker 1: we don't directly advice on investment, but we do help

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Speaker 1: with is the due diligence components for our institutional investors,

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Speaker 1: and we speak to experts that give guidance across the

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Speaker 1: vaccine place. The most recently, for example, we have been

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Speaker 1: focusing on Mark and uh Novo vaccine vaccine candidate well

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Speaker 1: for the America, Well it is a later entrance. Their

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Speaker 1: VFC platform and their v Diesel Space platform actually could

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Speaker 1: potentially bode well when it comes to you know, single

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Speaker 1: dosage and UPDAK in the elderly based on the efficacy

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Speaker 1: that they have shown once they're proven platforms, they also

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Speaker 1: potentially have an oral formulation. And we've also been focusing

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Speaker 1: on novavax Um for a while now because their anti

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Speaker 1: body responses have been pretty amazing and we uh we

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Speaker 1: weren't surprised by the FDA fast expisignation which they received

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Speaker 1: earlier this week. We're pretty much out of time, but

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Speaker 1: can you give us a rundown very briefly on the

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Speaker 1: companies that are concentrating on things like distribution and refrigeration

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Speaker 1: so we can continue to keep an eye on those two, Yes,

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Speaker 1: for sure. So right now the main focus is s Fizer,

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Speaker 1: Biontec and Maderna and their supplier relationships with certain CDMs,

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Speaker 1: But those storage requirements and manufacturing of them will actually

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Speaker 1: come down to the bio farma itself and the capability

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Speaker 1: that they have at hand. And again case some point

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Speaker 1: is is marked with their ultracol storage solution. Wow amazing.

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Speaker 1: So it's the companies themselves that are going to have

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Speaker 1: to solve that problem. Jillen, thank you for joining us.

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Speaker 1: We do have to catch up with you again very soon.

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Speaker 1: Jillen Momadova is Global sector lead for healthcare at Third Bridge.

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Speaker 1: But the President elect is extraordinarily close to veterans. This

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Speaker 1: on Veterans Day. No better person to talk to about

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Speaker 1: what might happen under a Biden presidency for veterans than

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Speaker 1: to be Harsha. This, of course, as well as President

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Speaker 1: Trump and Vice President Mike Pence took a tour of

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Speaker 1: Arlington National Cemetery for the day. That was in it, Toby,

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Speaker 1: you know, borrowing some kind of strange thing happening. It

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Speaker 1: does look like we're going to get a Biden presidency,

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Speaker 1: which means possibly some good news for veterans. Is there

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Speaker 1: something that Biden will put on his list to get

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Speaker 1: accomplished for these people that are still experiencing hardships and

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Speaker 1: suffering and oh discrimination. Weirdly, you know, so many generations

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Speaker 1: after their problems were first brought to light. Thanks Bunny,

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Speaker 1: I'm happy to be here. Um. I wish that Biden

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Speaker 1: had said, um, anything that was more specific during the campaign.

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Speaker 1: He said all of the right things, um, but but

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Speaker 1: sort of deep generalizations that, um, you know, veterans need

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Speaker 1: the jobs that they need, they need the care that

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Speaker 1: they deserve, things like that, But there really wasn't anything specific. Um.

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Speaker 1: It's it's not a huge campaign issue. No, it's not.

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Speaker 1: What is the biggest need for veterans right now to UM,

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Speaker 1: I think sort of the overwriting topic is mental health care. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, as we know, the veterans have a higher

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Speaker 1: suicide rate than the population in general. UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: PTSD is now finally considered a legitimate diagnosis. UM. And uh,

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Speaker 1: it's just it's very hard u A to supply enough

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Speaker 1: healthcare and be often the trick is bringing people into

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Speaker 1: mental healthcare. Veterans, not not to de cliche about veterans

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Speaker 1: tend to be you know, think of themselves as tough

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Speaker 1: and self sufficient. UM. And it's often hard to bring

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Speaker 1: people into you know, it's sort of broad based mental

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Speaker 1: health care. Yeah, it's UM, there's so many problems out there.

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Speaker 1: But you know, if anyone should have a stake in

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Speaker 1: our national defense or at least, you know, an opinion

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Speaker 1: we should listen to, it's our veterans. What do they

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Speaker 1: think of the military changes that we're seeing right now

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Speaker 1: or the changes of the Pentagon? UM? And and what

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Speaker 1: what what should be there instead? Yeah, I don't want to,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to to lump them all into one

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Speaker 1: voice or one opinion. And there's not really polling on this. UM.

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Speaker 1: I would imagine there's deep dissatisfaction, especially with the Shenanigans

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Speaker 1: that Trump has been up to this week. UM. You

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Speaker 1: know it's funny that that Mark Esper was called yasper

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Speaker 1: um behind his back and considered this Trump loyalist, and

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Speaker 1: yet now Trump astared him for not being sufficiently loyal

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Speaker 1: and put in um or replacement who I don't want

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Speaker 1: to say unqualified, but certainly under qualified. UM. And UM,

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Speaker 1: you know I I just don't think this makes anyone happy.

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Speaker 1: Um inside the services, polling is is is done. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit sketchy. UM, I guess, as polling

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Speaker 1: is everywhere these days. But there's there's a little question

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Speaker 1: that President Trump's um uh ratings among the officer class

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Speaker 1: UM declined heavily over his four years UM to no depths.

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Speaker 1: Probably that any Republican UM has, any Republican incumbent has

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Speaker 1: reached uh certainly in modern history. That brings us to Biden.

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Speaker 1: And you know, yes, I'm not We could talk for

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Speaker 1: a long time about about how President Tromp treated the

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Speaker 1: military and and the arms of the military, but let's

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Speaker 1: let's talk about Biden. Will Biden's you know, domestic policy

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Speaker 1: and foreign policy, national security policy, as it relates to

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Speaker 1: the various branches of the military. Will it be significantly

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Speaker 1: different to what we have now? Yeah, I mean the

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Speaker 1: headline issue is the remaining troops in Afghanistan. UM, and

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Speaker 1: Biden's uh, you know, the positions that he put out

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Speaker 1: on the campaign trail weren't all that much different than Trump's.

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Speaker 1: He'd like to bring them home, but unlike Trump, he

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Speaker 1: puts a greater emphasis on the on the ground conditions

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Speaker 1: UM and simply making sure that Afghanistan won't collapse. UM

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Speaker 1: as soon as our troops are gone. Remember, there's not

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Speaker 1: that many. There's about twelve thousand UM, which is not

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Speaker 1: to not to be a little the sacrifice and the

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Speaker 1: danger that they're facing, UM. But compared to the height

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Speaker 1: of these two wars, UM, it's it's it's a fairly

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to see in significant it's

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Speaker 1: a very small amount of troops left there. In terms

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Speaker 1: of broader issues, UM, there were a lot of concerns

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Speaker 1: I think about the Pentagon budget UM being slashed if

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Speaker 1: the Democrats won the presidency and UM took control of Congress.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not particularly worried about that. UM. The Pentic

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Speaker 1: budget came out of UH Congress the other day. For

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Speaker 1: twenty one it was seventy was the top line. And

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Speaker 1: then you know, when you factor in the war funding

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Speaker 1: plus the money that goes to the nuclear program and

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Speaker 1: the Energy Department, it's gonna it's gonna be about seven

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Speaker 1: thirty million, which is about tied for the highest it's

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Speaker 1: ever been. UM. Democrats will want to pull back on

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Speaker 1: that a little bit, but I wouldn't imagine by more

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Speaker 1: than a percentage or two. UM. I think the bigger

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Speaker 1: changes are going to be on what that money is

428
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 1: spent on. UM. And I think we're going to see

429
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 1: some big ticket items, you know, trimmed back. That would

430
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 1: be the aircraft carriers, UM, the brigade combat groups, the

431
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: things that are that are super money intensive. UM. And

432
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: I think that will you know, that will go to

433
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: things that get better bang from the bunk, better bang

434
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 1: for the buck, which is drone for the most part,

435
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: and not just little drones like we think of, but UM, submarines, UH,

436
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: long range strategic bombers. Lots of things can be done unmanned.

437
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: So essentially we'll be returning to the Obama era for

438
00:24:56,200 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: that type of policy. Yeah, UM, I I think we Will.

439
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: I think the Pentagon has always been headed in that direction. UM.

440
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of politics involved. You have

441
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 1: to remember that the in that gigantic seven hundred billion

442
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: dollar UM Pentagon spending bill, almost every penny of it

443
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 1: is accounted for by Congress and says this has to

444
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 1: go to this, This has to go to that, this

445
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: has to go to that. UM and UM more flexibility

446
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: is what the Pentagon really needs. UM. Pentagon, the Congress

447
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: has to allow the Pentagon to spend that, you know,

448
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: almost a trillion dollars in UM in the ways that

449
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: it feels it needs to. Toby, will Joe Biden be

450
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: any more interventionist than President Obama because the President of

451
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: Alma made it, made it, you know, a high bar

452
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 1: to intervene. Yeah, UM, well you know we we did

453
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: intervene in Libya. UM I would say no, I don't

454
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 1: think so. I think interventionism is out of favor with

455
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: both parties at this point. UM. I think that UM,

456
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: there will be a much bigger emphasis now on UM

457
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 1: using diplomacy and especially on using alliances UM to shore

458
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 1: up America's security needs, particularly in terms of China but

459
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: also Russia. UM. I think that the big the big

460
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 1: change will be that you know place that President Trump

461
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: basically tried to extort our Asian allies, Japan and South

462
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: Korea by making them pay more money to host US troops.

463
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 1: And that pressure I think will be relieved. And it

464
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: was an idiotic strategy, um not to put to find

465
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: a point on it, because it's cheaper actually to store

466
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 1: our troops, to have our troops stationed abroad than it

467
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 1: is to keep them at home, and we have to

468
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: pay them no matter where they are, and there's huge

469
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: security dividends played by that, Toby, It's a fascinating conversation

470
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: we just had. I'd love to have longer. Let's talk

471
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: about the Middle East as well, because that you know,

472
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: it may not be front of mind, given all of

473
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: the various parts of the world that are front of mind,

474
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: but it's definitely going to be something that Biden administration

475
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: will have to have a plan and for. Toby Harshaw

476
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Opinion editor. Here for Bloomberg Opinion. Thanks for

477
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen

478
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479
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480
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,320
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481
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482
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