WEBVTT - SHARP NFL Week 3 Bets - Patriots-Jaguars, Texans-Colts and more 0:00:00.870 --> 0:00:04.650 Welcome to Sharper Square. We are brought to you by Polymarket, 0:00:04.670 --> 0:00:08.880 and we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This 0:00:08.940 --> 0:00:11.000 is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:14.500 the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.160 am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, 0:00:18.180 --> 0:00:23.669 my co-host, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. 0:00:24.430 --> 0:00:25.510 Chad, how we doing? 0:00:26.890 --> 0:00:30.910 Look, we get into Thursday. And what we thought was 0:00:31.030 --> 0:00:36.550 true earlier in the week is changing rapidly. Caleb Williams, 0:00:37.250 --> 0:00:44.269 because he is Wolverine and can miraculously recover, he might 0:00:44.900 --> 0:00:48.120 still play on Monday. Jackson Dart, who went out of 0:00:48.140 --> 0:00:53.159 the game, was standing on the sideline. John Harbaugh is saying, oh, 0:00:53.220 --> 0:00:56.160 maybe he's going to be fine, or at least not catastrophic. 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:01.400 Now out for the season. Jaden Daniels, Man, that was ugly. 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:08.500 That's where we stand right now with quarterback injuries. But 0:01:08.540 --> 0:01:15.200 this game, man, it's tough. Tough game. Hard to bet 0:01:15.220 --> 0:01:15.620 this game. 0:01:16.260 --> 0:01:18.360 Tough game, but it makes you question a lot of 0:01:18.380 --> 0:01:21.720 stuff the Giants did where I feel like Mahomes set 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:24.340 the standard, the template for what you should do, right? 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.910 He got the surgery that night, so he didn't want 0:01:28.110 --> 0:01:30.569 to let it get inflamed, his knee to– blow up. 0:01:30.970 --> 0:01:33.730 He went and got the surgery that night, and now 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.640 he was back playing, starting the season, literally nine months 0:01:36.660 --> 0:01:38.720 to the date, and winning, running on it. I mean, 0:01:38.740 --> 0:01:42.060 scored a running touchdown. People are already knocking the dart, 0:01:42.300 --> 0:01:44.880 walked off the field on it, was walking around on it, 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:46.600 and people say, well, you can't do any more damage 0:01:46.620 --> 0:01:49.320 to it. That's not true at all. You have torn 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.960 a ligament in your knee, and now you're walking around 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:55.410 on it. So, I get the whole tough guy thing 0:01:55.430 --> 0:01:58.130 when we talk about the Caleb and everything, but my God. 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.460 That whole scenario with Dart of him just walking around 0:02:01.740 --> 0:02:03.240 with his knee bending like it was. 0:02:03.820 --> 0:02:05.480 And then standing on the sidelines. 0:02:05.500 --> 0:02:08.990 Yeah, standing on the sideline. Just no one could tell 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:11.290 me logically why that made any sense in any way. 0:02:11.370 --> 0:02:15.250 So I feel like teams going forward will just continue 0:02:15.270 --> 0:02:17.870 to try to handle these things differently. And like I said, 0:02:17.889 --> 0:02:20.330 the Mahomes thing, that just makes the most sense to me. 0:02:20.770 --> 0:02:23.260 If you can get the surgery done that night, go 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:26.190 get it done. These are billion-dollar teams. They can– pay 0:02:26.210 --> 0:02:27.489 whatever they need to pay for the doc to get 0:02:27.510 --> 0:02:29.350 out of bed and go do a midnight surgery on 0:02:29.370 --> 0:02:29.950 someone's knee. 0:02:30.010 --> 0:02:32.290 So, yeah, brutal, brutal. 0:02:32.330 --> 0:02:35.170 If you're a Giants fan, now they're, what, hoping for 0:02:35.190 --> 0:02:38.410 a Mac Jones trade? I mean, there's just, there's guys 0:02:38.530 --> 0:02:40.250 out there. Your season's not totally lost. 0:02:40.380 --> 0:02:41.620 A J.J. McCarthy trade? 0:02:42.700 --> 0:02:45.980 Yeah, but that just, it really does feel like they 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:47.840 were at the high of highs on Monday, and now 0:02:47.900 --> 0:02:51.340 it's just gone. I mean, just a week later, it's 0:02:51.380 --> 0:02:52.760 totally over. I mean, I think they're now 1,000, yeah. 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:55.880 I think there are 10 to one or 11 to 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:59.340 one right now to win NFCs. So the books are just, they're, 0:02:59.380 --> 0:03:00.440 they're just saying they're done. 0:03:00.900 --> 0:03:01.080 Yeah. 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:02.900 Even though they, they're wanting to know in the division. 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:06.650 So really, really brutal for a Giants fan. Like we 0:03:06.690 --> 0:03:07.340 talk all the time. 0:03:07.410 --> 0:03:09.490 It's Eli Manning. 0:03:09.510 --> 0:03:11.669 You can say he's not the best quarterback and, you know, 0:03:11.710 --> 0:03:13.950 went to the playoffs twice, won two Superbowls, but he 0:03:14.130 --> 0:03:15.230 never missed a game. 0:03:15.669 --> 0:03:17.090 And same could go with Brett Favre. 0:03:17.130 --> 0:03:20.030 Brady missed one season, but you just, when you have 0:03:20.070 --> 0:03:21.990 these guys who can play for you every week and 0:03:22.010 --> 0:03:23.950 don't miss games or something special about it. And then, 0:03:24.630 --> 0:03:26.669 um a lot of these teams out there with I 0:03:26.710 --> 0:03:29.630 mean it's fair to say not great quarterbacks have had 0:03:29.669 --> 0:03:31.329 tons of injuries this year and it's just been brutal 0:03:31.380 --> 0:03:32.750 as a fan base I'm sure where it's like you 0:03:32.790 --> 0:03:34.480 have hope it's early in the year you want to 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:36.560 see what your guy can do I'm sure you're in 0:03:36.580 --> 0:03:37.920 the same boat right now where it's like you want 0:03:37.940 --> 0:03:40.020 to see Caleb take that next step in the season 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:42.660 now it's all off to a rough start it's like 0:03:42.700 --> 0:03:45.500 he's got to come off he's coming off an injury 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:46.520 now you don't know he's going to be in that 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:48.000 injury he's going to be more timid to run it's 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:50.260 just it's the worst I mean we're all fans of 0:03:50.300 --> 0:03:52.520 this we all know the deal the quarterback so I 0:03:52.540 --> 0:03:54.820 think we're the same boat. We're all just disgusted right now. 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:55.620 We're just so mad. 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:56.260 Disgusting. 0:03:56.280 --> 0:04:00.260 These injuries are happening. The grass, just get the grass fields. 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:02.410 I don't get it. We've had all these injuries with 0:04:02.430 --> 0:04:06.970 these players. Just please, NFL, we're begging. No more turf. 0:04:07.010 --> 0:04:08.410 Just get these grass fields, man. 0:04:09.450 --> 0:04:12.050 If FIFA can find the money, the NFL can find 0:04:12.070 --> 0:04:14.500 the money. I mean, look, there's no league in the 0:04:14.530 --> 0:04:17.700 world that cares less about anything than FIFA, and they 0:04:17.740 --> 0:04:19.540 still care enough about their players to put them on 0:04:19.580 --> 0:04:24.210 grass fields. This is our Thursday NFL Week 3 show. 0:04:24.529 --> 0:04:28.810 You'll hear sharp calls, brass balls, our underdog and favorite 0:04:28.870 --> 0:04:33.070 round robins, Simon's biggest bet, sharp versus square picks, our 0:04:33.190 --> 0:04:36.860 discord grouper of the week. We're going to narrow down 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:41.820 the field to our favorite five picks. And by the way, 0:04:41.900 --> 0:04:45.860 you can compete against us in our free sharper square 0:04:45.860 --> 0:04:51.239 $ 25, 000 pro football pick'em Contest. We only launched the contest 0:04:51.300 --> 0:04:53.980 last week in week two. So we also will be 0:04:54.020 --> 0:04:59.230 dropping everyone's lowest score after week five. So if you 0:04:59.290 --> 0:05:03.270 have not signed up, you aren't too late. You're still 0:05:03.430 --> 0:05:06.229 in the running for the prize pool of $ 25, 000 in cash. 0:05:07.310 --> 0:05:12.859 Sign up now. Start or square.thevolume.com. Top 10 finishers get paid. 0:05:12.940 --> 0:05:16.300 First place gets $ 10, 000. It's totally free. You're competing against 0:05:16.339 --> 0:05:19.119 me and Simon. We haven't started off very well so far, 0:05:19.220 --> 0:05:22.359 so very good chance to wipe the floor with us. 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:29.830 Sharp or square.thevolume.com. All right, Simon. Every week, we're going 0:05:29.850 --> 0:05:32.710 to discuss our picks on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and then 0:05:32.730 --> 0:05:35.969 you're going to get some calls from your fellow professional bettors, 0:05:36.029 --> 0:05:39.660 and they are going to tell us what they think 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.140 it's time for. Sharp calls. 0:05:43.110 --> 0:05:43.589 Who's there? 0:05:43.650 --> 0:05:49.210 I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody say it. Baby, 0:05:49.230 --> 0:05:50.310 what you doing? 0:05:51.910 --> 0:05:55.030 Yeah, I read in the Thursday night game probably wouldn't 0:05:55.050 --> 0:05:57.870 be my biggest bet of the season if there just 0:05:57.930 --> 0:06:00.849 wasn't so much hesitation with the fact that it's Penick's 0:06:00.930 --> 0:06:03.529 first start back from the injury. It's all lined up 0:06:03.570 --> 0:06:06.920 right now for Atlanta. It's like the perfect spot trend-wise, right? 0:06:06.940 --> 0:06:09.779 0-2 team, 0-2 straight up, on the road, big dog. 0:06:10.140 --> 0:06:12.760 No one believes him. No one's betting on him. But 0:06:12.779 --> 0:06:15.220 I think the public, not that they're getting wiser to it, 0:06:15.220 --> 0:06:17.900 but they're seeing what's happening. They're seeing all the professional 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:20.780 money coming in on the Atlanta side and the PennX 0:06:20.860 --> 0:06:23.520 news and the number being driven down. So, yeah, it 0:06:23.540 --> 0:06:25.820 would have been great if it stayed at seven, went 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:27.820 to five and a half on the theory that PennX 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:29.040 is going to be back. Now it's down to four 0:06:29.060 --> 0:06:33.000 and a half. So that's probably the biggest talk about game. 0:06:33.020 --> 0:06:35.240 I mean, another one really talked about, which isn't our 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:39.159 lane technically, is the Ole Miss Florida game, which was a. 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:40.340 College game, if you don't know. 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:45.620 Basically, Ole Miss, Coming off the biggest win of possibly 0:06:45.660 --> 0:06:49.080 the college history against LSU, now is on the road 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.760 playing Florida. And it's a weird spot. Ole Miss, who's 0:06:52.820 --> 0:06:57.849 ranked way higher, is a three-and-a-half-point dog. And talk to markets, 0:06:58.410 --> 0:07:01.710 guys predict their markets. You talk to bookmakers. It is 0:07:01.730 --> 0:07:05.810 all Ole Miss money. And every pro I know is 0:07:05.850 --> 0:07:10.270 just hammering Florida. So if people want a college bet, Florida– 0:07:10.660 --> 0:07:13.500 It's going to look like an obvious pick, but it's not. 0:07:13.620 --> 0:07:14.670 The public is just. 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:16.910 Hammering Ole Miss. They don't know anybody. They can't help themselves. 0:07:16.930 --> 0:07:19.530 They're just getting a three-and-a-half-point dog on a team that 0:07:19.570 --> 0:07:22.670 just beat LSU. They just love that spot. So that's 0:07:22.710 --> 0:07:26.850 another big, tall conversation this whole week, really. Those two 0:07:26.890 --> 0:07:29.290 games just stick out of what we're going to see 0:07:29.310 --> 0:07:32.250 earlier on Thursday and Saturday, obviously, of just the public 0:07:32.310 --> 0:07:35.710 is all over this one side and professionals are all 0:07:35.750 --> 0:07:37.580 over the other side. Like, I don't know a pro 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.000 on Green Bay. Green Bay– we're going to dive into 0:07:40.020 --> 0:07:43.800 the route there without their right tackle. So, um, hot topic. 0:07:44.020 --> 0:07:44.940 It's, it's fun too. 0:07:44.980 --> 0:07:47.140 Cause I do bet a little bit of college obviously, 0:07:47.180 --> 0:07:50.300 but the fact that this is just such an obvious one, 0:07:50.660 --> 0:07:51.760 I mean, it's so rare. 0:07:51.810 --> 0:07:53.830 You see a team lower ranked a three and a 0:07:53.830 --> 0:07:54.590 half point favorite. 0:07:54.630 --> 0:07:56.470 So yeah, Florida Ole Miss is going to be really 0:07:56.510 --> 0:07:59.430 talked about back to NFL chargers game. We're going to 0:07:59.470 --> 0:08:02.290 dive into tons of love by the pros, Miami, ton 0:08:02.330 --> 0:08:05.570 of love by the pros, Cleveland, ton of love by 0:08:05.610 --> 0:08:08.500 the pros. Um, I should have gave it out. We talked, 0:08:08.540 --> 0:08:10.300 I talked Tennessee being Simon says, cause it was three 0:08:10.310 --> 0:08:12.640 and a half. Probably market already moved at two and 0:08:12.660 --> 0:08:15.620 a half. That's why I didn't. And most books now 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:18.160 it's down to three, two and a half. So I, I, 0:08:19.180 --> 0:08:20.820 I assume that we'll be able to stay away now 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:22.680 from Tennessee cause I'm not going to put that in 0:08:22.700 --> 0:08:26.760 a half such a bad number. You know, big one 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:30.220 we talked about that's really split between pros is that 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.250 Vikings bucks game. 0:08:32.780 --> 0:08:36.160 And, You know, everyone's got different opinions, different reasonings. 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:38.540 Like, you know, Kyler coming back is obviously going to 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:42.320 be an upgrade you expect to that Minnesota offense. And 0:08:42.660 --> 0:08:45.530 I think there's some crazy stat going around. KOC is basically, 0:08:46.150 --> 0:08:48.570 as a road favorite in his career, 13-0 on the 0:08:48.610 --> 0:08:52.189 money line. So technically it's a great spot for the Vikings. 0:08:52.210 --> 0:08:55.590 They just, you know, usually if they're favored on the 0:08:55.610 --> 0:08:58.240 road against a team, there's very good reason. But we're 0:08:58.250 --> 0:08:59.780 going to dive into the Bucs. A lot of pros 0:08:59.820 --> 0:09:01.900 like them because it's just like you can't be more dill. 0:09:02.450 --> 0:09:04.470 And all the trends love them, right? The 0-2 against 0:09:04.490 --> 0:09:07.650 the spread 0-2. Oh, yeah. At home as a dog. 0:09:08.190 --> 0:09:09.329 There's going to be a lot of trends that point 0:09:09.350 --> 0:09:11.470 to that. So a lot of fun phone calls about 0:09:11.510 --> 0:09:14.809 that one. And I would say the biggest bet people 0:09:14.830 --> 0:09:16.490 are trying to bully me out of this week is 0:09:16.510 --> 0:09:20.050 definitely my love for Seattle. So we can dive into 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.770 that one more. Like Seattle, depends on your contest. There's 0:09:22.790 --> 0:09:25.020 some out there that has six and a half. It's 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:26.740 going to be hard to pass on that come Sunday morning. 0:09:26.780 --> 0:09:28.059 Like if you're trying to find a fifth one to 0:09:28.100 --> 0:09:31.260 put in, Seattle– we've talked about there 14 and three 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:34.860 for McDonald in his career on the road against the spread. 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:38.350 Like there's so many crazy stats to back up backing 0:09:38.370 --> 0:09:41.390 this team. And I know people always worry about West coast, 0:09:41.550 --> 0:09:43.950 West coast team going East. There's trends at point. That's 0:09:43.990 --> 0:09:46.109 not true at all. Like their favorite of six points 0:09:46.150 --> 0:09:50.490 or more 20 and 10 since 2020 of West coast 0:09:50.510 --> 0:09:54.020 teams going East. It's just, it's not, you know, the eighties, 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.620 these aren't uncomfortable flights. It's not, you know what people 0:09:56.660 --> 0:09:58.960 think it used to be. So, Yeah, it was really 0:09:59.300 --> 0:10:00.960 not a busy week. for sharp calls but it was 0:10:00.980 --> 0:10:04.500 definitely a week of uh agreeance like a lot of 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:05.720 people are agreeing with us about a lot of the 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:07.780 dogs you like like we even talk about cleveland a 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:09.810 lot of pros on that one as well but it's 0:10:09.830 --> 0:10:11.429 another one that's kind of split as well as same 0:10:11.470 --> 0:10:12.949 as that vikings bucks game so. 0:10:13.190 --> 0:10:14.829 A lot of a lot of games to dive into here. 0:10:15.510 --> 0:10:18.990 Well that's good i'm surprised um looking at the very 0:10:19.050 --> 0:10:23.829 first one New England at Jacksonville. Jacksonville is now a 0:10:24.030 --> 0:10:28.250 three-point favorite at home. It opened at two and a half. 0:10:28.490 --> 0:10:34.950 This was Chad's choice. I will say, in a surprise vote, 0:10:36.150 --> 0:10:41.120 this was the winning vote-getter in the Discord grouper. It 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:46.280 beat out some really gross, gnarly contenders, one of which 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:51.720 I will discuss later. Truly, Matt Mitchell... Just should be 0:10:51.780 --> 0:10:56.430 so proud of the other suggestion. Don't forget, you can 0:10:56.470 --> 0:11:00.470 join our betting community. We are sharing the latest news 0:11:01.150 --> 0:11:04.849 on what we hear, alerting folks to line moves, voting 0:11:04.910 --> 0:11:07.980 on bets. I'm going to make all season long. Plus, 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:11.339 we're raising money for St. Jude Children's Hospital. Join the 0:11:11.380 --> 0:11:18.160 Discord by going to readthenumber.com. The Jags will be two 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.790 and a half in the contests. I'd still take it 0:11:21.850 --> 0:11:24.710 at two and a half. Um, and we're going to 0:11:24.750 --> 0:11:28.890 bet Jags on the money line through the discord grouper. Um, 0:11:30.950 --> 0:11:33.429 it didn't come up in sharp calls. You liked it 0:11:33.510 --> 0:11:37.280 with me the other day. Have your feelings changed as 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.420 it moved down the list? Where's your head on that? 0:11:41.500 --> 0:11:42.880 Yeah. If you want to put this one as one 0:11:42.900 --> 0:11:45.040 of your picture, we could do it. I just, I 0:11:45.059 --> 0:11:46.840 have no real read on it where I'm, I'm on 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:51.820 the Jags, but, um, The more I dive into the Jags, 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:55.829 it's not an easy-as-match-up I thought it was going to 0:11:55.850 --> 0:11:58.469 be for them defensively. I thought there was just a 0:11:58.470 --> 0:11:59.890 lot of ways they could exploit the Patriots. Like we 0:11:59.910 --> 0:12:02.770 talked about, the Patriots are a different team without A.J. 0:12:02.809 --> 0:12:03.069 Brown. 0:12:03.090 --> 0:12:05.630 They just went really heavy into one receiver, and without him, 0:12:06.350 --> 0:12:07.990 you can just tell it shifted their offense. 0:12:08.030 --> 0:12:10.970 They're playing way more conservative, and we've talked this. 0:12:12.230 --> 0:12:14.680 It's not that it's on Drake May, but through two weeks– 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:16.660 He's not looked like Drake May from last year. 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:17.670 I mean, that's fair to say. 0:12:17.830 --> 0:12:19.270 But it's tough because it's like, all right, we went 0:12:19.290 --> 0:12:23.290 against Seattle and then Pittsburgh, two really good defenses. So, 0:12:23.970 --> 0:12:25.930 is this a nice bounce back spot for him, everything 0:12:25.950 --> 0:12:28.270 like that? But, yeah, two and a half. Like you said, 0:12:28.309 --> 0:12:29.670 if you want to Sunday morning put it in, I'm 0:12:29.700 --> 0:12:31.440 not going to fight you on it. It's a good number. 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:35.920 Jack's team is right now a more complete, better team, healthier. So, 0:12:36.140 --> 0:12:39.520 you expect them to bounce back. And this Patriots team, 0:12:39.540 --> 0:12:41.730 you know, if you're taking them at the three or 0:12:41.780 --> 0:12:43.069 three and a half, if it ever gets there, I 0:12:43.070 --> 0:12:45.970 don't hate it. I just– prefer the side we're on 0:12:46.010 --> 0:12:48.270 at two and a half on the jags all. 0:12:48.210 --> 0:12:50.969 Right jags two and a half i like it a 0:12:51.010 --> 0:12:54.150 lot it was chad's choice uh jags on the money 0:12:54.210 --> 0:12:58.790 line is the discord grouper join it read the number.com 0:12:59.170 --> 0:13:02.550 you mentioned tennessee for a second uh we talked about 0:13:02.580 --> 0:13:07.160 it on tuesday i've never liked it so i'm glad 0:13:07.260 --> 0:13:10.800 that sort of we have come to a consensus like 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:14.140 it's a bad number so we don't have to I'm 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:16.140 glad that it's not to be something we debate on 0:13:16.179 --> 0:13:19.870 Sunday as being in there because the number has now moved. 0:13:20.470 --> 0:13:22.150 Any value in the number is gone. It's down to 0:13:22.170 --> 0:13:23.890 two and a half. Tennessee is a two and a 0:13:23.890 --> 0:13:28.050 half point favorite. On the road, Cam Ward at the Giants, 0:13:29.090 --> 0:13:33.510 feeling sad with Jameis Winston. But that also makes me 0:13:33.550 --> 0:13:37.199 a little nervous because Jameis is a gunslinger. You never 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:39.540 know what you're going to get. And in a week 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:45.420 of preparation against a– still a bad team he could 0:13:45.470 --> 0:13:49.210 just easily light it up for a miracle as crap 0:13:49.230 --> 0:13:49.610 the bed. 0:13:49.510 --> 0:13:53.870 Again yeah you're just you're overthinking if it's three and 0:13:53.890 --> 0:13:55.870 a half it's a no-brainer play in tennessee it doesn't 0:13:55.890 --> 0:13:57.780 matter if you dislike it or not jamis winston's 10 0:13:57.780 --> 0:13:59.739 and 20 against the spread is a favorite it's just 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:04.079 it's a nor'eastern we we have a tsunami coming with 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.780 it's jamis winston playing it's what a dream and what 0:14:07.830 --> 0:14:10.150 a treat so unfortunately yeah the number moved too much 0:14:10.270 --> 0:14:12.640 but The 3.5 was a gift. 0:14:12.700 --> 0:14:14.460 I think it opened at like 6.5 and it was 0:14:14.500 --> 0:14:15.720 supposed to be dart. 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:16.300 It did. 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:17.660 They tried to move it to 3.5, and it just 0:14:17.700 --> 0:14:20.020 kept getting hammered, and they moved it to just a 0:14:20.060 --> 0:14:21.820 nice spot now where it's like, sure, if you want 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.000 to bet the Giants, go at it. I don't know 0:14:24.020 --> 0:14:26.300 who's really taking Tennessee at plus 2.5 now. You've already 0:14:26.340 --> 0:14:28.680 missed the best of it. So definitely a game if 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.130 you missed that number. I would either be patient on it, 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:33.680 maybe tease up Tennessee if you want, but I'm not 0:14:33.710 --> 0:14:35.210 going to take them at plus 2.5 for the worst 0:14:35.230 --> 0:14:36.050 of the number of the week. 0:14:37.350 --> 0:14:40.970 We're being very disciplined. We're being focused. I like it. 0:14:40.980 --> 0:14:45.500 We're not getting bullied. We're not, you know, kowtowing to 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:50.020 everything we're hearing or stats that we're seeing. We're making 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:55.370 sound betting decisions. Will that continue with Seattle as now 0:14:55.730 --> 0:15:00.730 a seven-point favorite over Washington? It kind of moves across 0:15:00.770 --> 0:15:03.710 the board from six and a half to seven yesterday. 0:15:03.770 --> 0:15:08.390 There's actually some seven and a halves popping up. In 0:15:08.410 --> 0:15:12.510 the contest, it'll probably be seven and a half. On 0:15:12.550 --> 0:15:15.210 the field, it's hard to see how Washington covers this game. 0:15:15.790 --> 0:15:19.070 But as you said, you're getting feedback about why you 0:15:19.110 --> 0:15:22.640 like Seattle. The professionals are definitely going to be on 0:15:22.660 --> 0:15:27.280 the commanders. The history and the betting logic says be 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:28.000 on the commanders. 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.020 Yeah, I mean, last week on Thursday, I was going 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:36.560 to take a pretty big position on Arizona, and luckily... 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.660 you know, smarter minds reach out to him and just like, dude, stop, 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.660 stop going against Seattle, pick, pick other spots, which I 0:15:42.740 --> 0:15:43.280 obviously did. 0:15:43.340 --> 0:15:47.200 And it's all about their head coach. I mean, he's just, 0:15:47.860 --> 0:15:50.040 he's so good. He's the best right now. 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:53.140 And the spread reflects that he is since the beginning 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.859 of last season as a favorite, they are 14 and 0:15:56.940 --> 0:16:00.900 four against the spread on the road as a favorite. 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:03.840 He is nine and one against the spread. So it's, 0:16:05.350 --> 0:16:07.530 It's insane numbers. It's just, you can't get over how 0:16:07.550 --> 0:16:10.210 good of a coach he is. And like we talked about, 0:16:10.230 --> 0:16:11.870 there is a Nor'eastern coming, so this could be a 0:16:11.910 --> 0:16:17.800 sloppy weather game. Well, then you slip, then you slop, 0:16:17.940 --> 0:16:20.560 then you slip, slop, slip, slop, slop. 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:24.820 Oh, baby, come on, let's do the slop. 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.620 And Washington, they fits the bill of an 0-2 team 0:16:30.020 --> 0:16:32.410 this season. Now, at home is a big dog, but 0:16:32.790 --> 0:16:35.710 factoring in, it's Mariota, who... you can say he came in, 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:37.600 he didn't play terrible last week. Like he did have 0:16:37.620 --> 0:16:39.960 some good deep throws and overall, if you go through 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.460 his career as a backup, he's not the worst option, right? 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:44.680 He's still mobile. He's a good runner. 0:16:45.460 --> 0:16:48.500 Um, the, the, the big hangup for him is he's inconsistent, 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:51.160 especially on deep throws where it's like, he's going to 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:54.200 put you in 50, 50 balls. And against Seattle who 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.880 haven't given up a completion yet of over 20 yards, 0:16:57.500 --> 0:16:58.060 you're in hell. 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.140 Like this is a incredible shutdown defense. 0:17:01.300 --> 0:17:04.580 So, um, yeah seven and a half obviously it's not 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:08.120 the best feeling in the world but first stuck come 0:17:08.140 --> 0:17:10.020 Sunday morning like I said they're a nice fifth option 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:12.300 and it's just if we even even if we get 0:17:12.340 --> 0:17:14.980 burned here you just can't let that dictate your feelings 0:17:15.020 --> 0:17:17.780 of Seahawks going forward it's just the numbers prove it 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.360 out they're a very consistent covering team on the road 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:22.979 it's for this exact reason it's like the number gets 0:17:23.020 --> 0:17:24.500 so big like this you can think of a million 0:17:24.540 --> 0:17:27.060 reasons why to take Washington but at the end of 0:17:27.100 --> 0:17:30.240 the day the game will finish and they'll probably win 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:32.869 28 to 10 it's just what Seattle does so. 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:33.850 I'm with you. 0:17:33.900 --> 0:17:35.850 It's a tough one to swallow when it's 7.5. Like 0:17:35.869 --> 0:17:38.410 I said, in my other contest for big money, it's 6.5. 0:17:38.410 --> 0:17:41.230 It's going to be an easy play most likely Sunday 0:17:41.250 --> 0:17:43.710 morning where 7.5 does make you pause and think about 0:17:43.730 --> 0:17:47.090 it because a seven-point game, backdoor, it's always going to 0:17:47.109 --> 0:17:47.830 be there when you're at 7.5. 0:17:47.810 --> 0:17:49.119 That's the part with it. 0:17:50.109 --> 0:17:54.280 Two touchdowns, winning by a touchdown or more in the 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.760 NFL is hard. It just is. There's always an opportunity, 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:04.889 even if they're up 27-10. In the fourth quarter, like, 0:18:05.590 --> 0:18:08.450 fluky things happen when the game is out of reach 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.500 and one team is still playing and one team is 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:14.699 taking their foot off the gas. They're not incentivized to 0:18:14.740 --> 0:18:19.700 continue scoring more and really put the game out of reach. Simon, 0:18:20.869 --> 0:18:27.030 it's time for our Brass Balls Rate of the Week. 0:18:28.530 --> 0:18:31.110 It's going to be a surprise for a lot of people. 0:18:31.450 --> 0:18:38.430 Los Angeles... chargers plus seven and a half currently trading 0:18:38.490 --> 0:18:44.449 at 52% on Polymarket. You know what it takes? It 0:18:44.510 --> 0:18:53.250 takes brass balls. Look, this thing has been bouncing between 0:18:53.490 --> 0:18:57.410 seven and seven and a half all week. It'll certainly 0:18:57.490 --> 0:19:00.859 land at seven and a half in the contest. And 0:19:01.570 --> 0:19:03.230 You and I sort of came to a consensus at 0:19:03.270 --> 0:19:05.990 least this morning and when we were discussing this, it 0:19:06.050 --> 0:19:08.550 wasn't really a game that was on our radar on Tuesday. 0:19:09.390 --> 0:19:14.870 And then for me, I'm looking at Justin Herbert getting dragged, 0:19:15.690 --> 0:19:21.960 questions about his leadership, Jim Harbaugh getting dragged, Mike McDaniel 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.680 getting dragged. Things couldn't be worse for a team that 0:19:26.100 --> 0:19:27.880 not us, but a lot of people had very high 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:32.389 expectations for. Don't forget- The Chargers had shorter odds to 0:19:32.430 --> 0:19:36.400 win the division than the Broncos. And they've just been terrible, right? 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:39.480 You had the stat the other day. What was it? 0:19:39.500 --> 0:19:44.290 The first team to lose at home to two teams 0:19:44.350 --> 0:19:51.429 with sub 200 winning percentage the previous season since like 1929. 0:19:51.430 --> 0:19:55.520 So things couldn't be worse. And are we not at 0:19:55.580 --> 0:19:57.980 peak bills right now? Are they not like a team 0:19:58.020 --> 0:20:00.720 that everyone is just absolutely in love with, with the 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:02.899 way they beat the Texans in week one, the way 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.820 they dominated against the Lions in prime time in week two. 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:09.010 So of course we have to take the charters. in 0:20:09.030 --> 0:20:10.850 this spot, especially if we're getting the hook. 0:20:12.630 --> 0:20:14.570 Yeah, it stinks because I wanted to be so badly 0:20:14.590 --> 0:20:16.310 on the Bills, especially if they're going to be at 0:20:16.310 --> 0:20:18.580 6.5 or 7. But like you said, the fact that 0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:22.060 it's now up to 7.5, it's way too many points. 0:20:22.140 --> 0:20:24.140 There's too much hate and doubt on Herbert. 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:27.780 And just matchup-wise, like we've talked about the questions we 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:31.100