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Speaker 1: Welcome to Daily Variety, your daily dose of news and

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Speaker 1: analysis for entertainment industry insiders. It's Wednesday, January twenty first,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. I'm your host, Cynthia Littleton. I am

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Speaker 1: co editor in chief of Arriety alongside Ramin Setuda. I'm

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Speaker 1: in LA He's in New York, and Vriety has reporters

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Speaker 1: around the world covering the business of entertainment. In today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we'll hear from Variety's Rebecca Rubin and Clayton Davis. We

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Speaker 1: break down the art and the science and the bottom

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Speaker 1: line of the Academy Awards race, which moves to the

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Speaker 1: next level on Thursday morning with the announcement of this

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Speaker 1: year's nominations. But before we get to that, here are

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Speaker 1: a few headlines just in this morning that you need

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Speaker 1: to know. There's a big shake up at French video

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Speaker 1: game publisher Ubisoft. The company unveiled layoffs and a restructuring

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Speaker 1: that we'll see operations divided into five different quote creative

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Speaker 1: houses end quote. Each one of those will be focused

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Speaker 1: on a specific genre. My colleague Jennifer Moz has posted

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Speaker 1: a good story on what it all means. Keenan and

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Speaker 1: Kell are reunited and it feels so good. Keenan Thompson

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Speaker 1: and Kel Mitchell, who first teamed many years ago for Nickelodeon,

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Speaker 1: are working up a movie dubbed Keenan and Kell Meet

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Speaker 1: Frankenstein somewhere. Abbott and Costello are smiling. Also smiling, will

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Speaker 1: be attendees of this year's Actor Awards. Kristen Bell is

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Speaker 1: back for a third stint as host of The Kudo Cast.

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Speaker 1: It runs live on Netflix on March first. All of

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Speaker 1: these stories and so much more can be found on

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Speaker 1: Variety dot com right now and now it's time for

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Speaker 1: conversations with Friday journalists about news and trends and show business.

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Speaker 1: Variety's Box office chief Rebecca Rubin and our intrepid chief

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Speaker 1: Awards editor Clayton Davis join me on the eve of

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Speaker 1: the Oscar nominations announcement to mix it up about the

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Speaker 1: politics around this year's awards season and the cold hard

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Speaker 1: box office cash generated by top awards contenders. Rebecca Rubin

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Speaker 1: and Clayton Davis. Boy, is this a dynamic duo? Thanks

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Speaker 1: for joining me.

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Speaker 2: This is a good band. I like this band.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for having us.

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Speaker 1: As we talk here, We're about forty eight hours from

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Speaker 1: Oscar nominations, certainly a big day on the calendar for

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Speaker 1: variety and has been for almost one hundred years now.

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Speaker 1: Never forget we covered the first one. I know that

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Speaker 1: from looking it up in our page. So we've got

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Speaker 1: Rebecca here, our fabulous box office expert, and Clayton. Nobody

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Speaker 1: has stronger, more thoughtful and reasoned predictions than you, Clayton.

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Speaker 1: Or we're in the forty eight hour countdown, give me

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Speaker 1: your top half dozen contenders for Best Picture.

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Speaker 2: So I want to start by making my boldest prediction,

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Speaker 2: which is when Oscars go to YouTube in three years,

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Speaker 2: that we're not going to do this at five am anymore.

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Speaker 2: I just need to put that on rock Fruit now

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Speaker 2: because that's going to be the best for I can make.

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Speaker 2: I just can't wait for it to not be the

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Speaker 2: dead of night anymore. But other than that, listen, I

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Speaker 2: still think that Sinners is poised to have a record

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Speaker 2: breaking year. I think it really could break the all

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Speaker 2: time record and over fourteen. I currently have to getting fifteen,

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Speaker 2: but also that it can also be tied with one

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Speaker 2: battle after another, and that just really just speaks to

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Speaker 2: the great year for Warner Brothers. That is likely to

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Speaker 2: break its own personal record. They did thirty Oscar nominations

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Speaker 2: back in two thousand and four. It may do about

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Speaker 2: thirty four this year, and I think that is interesting

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Speaker 2: given the change that is coming for them in the future,

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Speaker 2: possibly with Netflix.

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Speaker 1: Acquiring them The Shadow of the Big Inn Clayton. What

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Speaker 1: drove the nominations in two thousand and four was.

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Speaker 2: The Aviator year that was a billion dollar baby, which

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Speaker 2: was a late dropper Clint Eastwood Polar Express. I think

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Speaker 2: that is that year too, so a lot of techs,

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Speaker 2: and then they had the top two contenders also that year,

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Speaker 2: which I thought was pretty interesting. Hamnett from The Focus

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Speaker 2: Features Chloe Joao's Shakespeare drama and Netflix is Frankenstein from

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Speaker 2: Gyermo del Toro, predicting both of them to crack double digits.

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Speaker 2: But this would mark the fourth time in Oscar history

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Speaker 2: that four movies have more than ten nominations each, and

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Speaker 2: I think that really just speaks to it's a top

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Speaker 2: heavy year. I think we know clearly who the contenders

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Speaker 2: are and it really spans multiple acting categories, artisans, popularity,

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Speaker 2: getting into the zeitgeist with general audiences is a few things.

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Speaker 2: But then there's also some smaller titles that are looking

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Speaker 2: to find some recognition and get their way in like

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Speaker 2: Train Dreams which premiered at Sundance Bogonia, which had this slow,

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Speaker 2: steady incline. And then we even have a popcorn movie

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Speaker 2: or two like F One, which did very very well

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Speaker 2: box office and Jerry Bruckheimer produce and could actually make

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Speaker 2: history for dede Gardner, who produced it, will be the

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Speaker 2: most nominated woman producer for a Best Picture, beating out

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Speaker 2: Kathleen Kennedy who just stepped down from lucasfilm well Rebecca.

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Speaker 1: And when you hear that list, when you analyze that

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Speaker 1: from a box office perspective, who's on the leaderboard for

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Speaker 1: the box office.

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Speaker 3: It'll definitely be interesting because I think of the movies

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Speaker 3: Clayton has listed, F One, which made over six hundred million,

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Speaker 3: might be the highest grossing of the nominees. It doesn't

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Speaker 3: sound like Avatar, Fire and Ash is really in the

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Speaker 3: conversation in a way that the first two were. Those years,

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Speaker 3: obviously the Best Picture contenders were very widely seen at

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Speaker 3: the box office, and this year seems a bit in between.

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Speaker 3: There were definitely a bunch of commercial hits. Centers of course,

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Speaker 3: did very well at the box office. It made three

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Speaker 3: hundred and Selmus three hundred and seventy million. One Battle

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Speaker 3: after another has made over two hundred million dollars, and

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Speaker 3: then Marty Supreme just crossed the one hundred million dollar mark,

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Speaker 3: And so that signals here that there is a bit

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Speaker 3: of overlap between the movies that the Oscars will likely

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Speaker 3: be recognizing and the movies that people actually went to

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Speaker 3: see in theaters this year, and we don't always see

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Speaker 3: that kind of overlap. Last year, the Best Picture winner

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Speaker 3: was Anorra. That movie made roughly sixty million dollars worldwide,

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Speaker 3: which is decent for an art house film, but doesn't

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Speaker 3: necessarily mean the general public all rushed out to see

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Speaker 3: this movie. One thing I always like to keep an

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Speaker 3: eye on is the Oscar nominations bump, because once the

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Speaker 3: nominations come out and people start to see the movies

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Speaker 3: that are in contention, then studios will bring them back

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Speaker 3: to theaters, and so it's always interesting to see the

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Speaker 3: weekend after nominations which films are starting to get more

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Speaker 3: attention again at the box office.

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Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember when that and that Oscar

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Speaker 1: nominations bump. The studios really ramp up marketing for the

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Speaker 1: home video, the physical home video, which seems almost archaic nowadays,

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Speaker 1: but that was a significant event, and now more so

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Speaker 1: than selling DVDs, you're more likely to see a studio

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Speaker 1: put a film back in theaters or give it an

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Speaker 1: Imax run. Am I right in thinking that Imax.

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Speaker 3: In particular, I think there will be a lot of

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Speaker 3: competition to get the Best Picture nominees back on those screens.

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Speaker 3: Sinners in particular and one Battle after another have already

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Speaker 3: had Imax re releases, and there's not a ton of new

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Speaker 3: movies on the calendar at this point in early January,

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Speaker 3: there probably won't be a lot new that's in Imax,

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Speaker 3: and there's room for these Best Picture nominees to come back.

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Speaker 3: And so that's really the format where a lot of

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Speaker 3: cinephiles are really loving these movies. F One is another

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Speaker 3: movie that was very big in Imax, and so I

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Speaker 3: think in particular, we'll probably see a boost on those screens.

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Speaker 1: Rich Galfond is like, bring it on.

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Speaker 3: Right absolutely of Champagne problems.

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Speaker 2: Rebecca, I just had a question, do you know how

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Speaker 2: many Imax screens are available in the country as compared

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Speaker 2: to just like a regular movie screen.

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Speaker 3: These numbers have shifted a lot during COVID because Imax

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Speaker 3: has grown its presence and regular screens have diminished. But

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Speaker 3: I would say there's around four hundred Imax screens and

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Speaker 3: over four thousand regular screens.

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Speaker 1: Clayton, let me ask you, but do you think is

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Speaker 1: there on some level for some Oscar voters is too

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Speaker 1: much box office? Almost a burden that you have to overcome,

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Speaker 1: Like you've got box office, We're going to give the

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Speaker 1: prestige to somebody else. It's still surprising that Wicked last

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Speaker 1: year in Wicked for Good this year, it would seem

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Speaker 1: in a different era, this would be such an Oscar movie.

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Speaker 1: But it just doesn't seem to have the traction.

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Speaker 2: Well, the first Wicked had just set it off. It

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Speaker 2: also ended on defying gravity, which was a huge plus

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Speaker 2: for it once it got to part two. You know,

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Speaker 2: hindsight always being twenty twenty. There are a few people

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Speaker 2: that I've spoken to that said maybe they should have

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Speaker 2: took a year break in between. I think there's potential

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Speaker 2: for it to get in. The second movie was just

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Speaker 2: wasn't as well received as the first one. I think

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Speaker 2: that's its biggest hump. Rebecca and I both being people

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Speaker 2: that seen Wicked on Broadway, we knew what Act two

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Speaker 2: was going to be, and I think that was always

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Speaker 2: going to be a hindrance. I think people may have

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Speaker 2: felt like, we already did the first one with such

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Speaker 2: success and world wards adoration, we don't really need to

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Speaker 2: do the second one. There may be a sum of

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Speaker 2: that that's setting in but not necessarily tied to box office.

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Speaker 1: Rebecca remind us where did Wicked for Good sort of

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Speaker 1: net out at the box office?

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Speaker 3: Wicked for Good ended up making a little over five

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Speaker 3: hundred million dollars, and that's obviously a great result for

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Speaker 3: a musical, one of the highest grossing musical adaptations, but

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Speaker 3: it did not hit the same heights as the first Wicked,

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Speaker 3: which made over seven one hundred and fifty million.

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Speaker 2: Even the discussion about how it helps some films, I

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Speaker 2: wonder how this is actually going to impact the animated

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Speaker 2: feature race. Because Tobia two is an undoubted success. It

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Speaker 2: is killing, I believe, the most the highest grossing animated

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Speaker 2: film of all time. Now, Rebecca correct.

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Speaker 3: The highest grossing animated Hollywood film, because I think Nijah

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Speaker 3: two is technically has grossed more, but it's a release

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Speaker 3: from China. So it's the highest grossing of the Motion

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Speaker 3: Picture Association.

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Speaker 2: But also the ninth highest grossing film ever. Yes, I

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Speaker 2: think even something like that. Now, I wonder that can

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Speaker 2: actually change as the dynamic and it's a different category

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Speaker 2: like Best Picture they I feel like it comes into

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Speaker 2: play when it comes to animated, especially coming to when

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Speaker 2: it's against a streaming film like K Pop Dema Hunters. Now,

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Speaker 2: I wonder what this is going to look like down

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Speaker 2: down the road because K pop has been a big

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Speaker 2: success and obviously flooded the market with Golden and a

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Speaker 2: lot of other moments. But you know, people love their

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Speaker 2: Disney movies.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about one Battle after Another, which seems to

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Speaker 1: be kind of right in that mid range. I think

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Speaker 1: it's an impressive box office performance for a true adult

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Speaker 1: drama that is very much about tapping into our zeitgeist.

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Speaker 1: Rebecca is your hunch that it does well, it will

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Speaker 1: get a second wind at the box office.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how big of a bump actually one

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Speaker 3: Battle after another we'll get at the box office, just

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Speaker 3: because it has already made two hundred million dollars and

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Speaker 3: that is, like you said, a very significant total for

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Speaker 3: an R rated drama that is mostly geared at adult audiences.

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Speaker 3: It's a three hour long movie, it's completely original, and

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Speaker 3: so these are the type of films that adult audiences

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Speaker 3: really aren't going out to see, but they were compelled

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Speaker 3: to go out for this one. And so I wonder

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Speaker 3: if there is an iMX rerelease that could interest people,

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Speaker 3: But it does feel like a lot of people have

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Speaker 3: already seen it, Like you mentioned it, it's sort of

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Speaker 3: a challenging one to assess because it's a very good

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Speaker 3: result for the type of film it is, which is

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Speaker 3: not necessarily to say it was profitable for the studio.

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Speaker 3: But those are two separate arguments. I think in the

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Speaker 3: context of Oscar nominations and Oscar wins, and I think

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Speaker 3: in the case here, even if a movie like one

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Speaker 3: Battle after Another ends up losing money for the studio,

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Speaker 3: if it does become this awards juggernaut like it has

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Speaker 3: already been and like we're expecting it to be, then

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Speaker 3: that really does help justify the film to Warner Brothers

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Speaker 3: beyond the balance sheet. And so yes, maybe they take

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Speaker 3: a bit of a financial hit on this, but they

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Speaker 3: had a really, really fabulous year at the box office

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Speaker 3: and so it helps to offset those losses. And of

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Speaker 3: course if they do all come with that Best Picture trophy,

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Speaker 3: then they're going to say in the end it was

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Speaker 3: worth it.

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Speaker 1: That's the gold cherry on the cake. I think major

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Speaker 1: credit to Warner Brothers, to Michael de Luca and Pam

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Speaker 1: Abdy for taking swings on original material. It's absolutely vital.

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Speaker 1: One battle after another Sinners that's very successful on any measure.

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Speaker 1: Let me ask you, Clayton about the political dynamic around Frankenstein.

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Speaker 1: That is a Netflix movie. We know it had an

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Speaker 1: outing or two in theaters, but Rebecca am I right

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Speaker 1: in thinking minimal release, and we didn't get any grosses

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Speaker 1: on it, did we.

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Speaker 3: We didn't get any grosses on it. I think it

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Speaker 3: might have played in four to five hundred theaters, whereas

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Speaker 3: the traditional wide release is playing in three thousand to

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Speaker 3: four thousand theaters. But just internally, what I've heard from

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Speaker 3: independent movie theater owners who did play the film, they

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Speaker 3: said it was extremely popular and they think it would

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Speaker 3: have done really well if it did have a traditional

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Speaker 3: wide release. And so Netflix of course is not going

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Speaker 3: to report box office grosses, at least in this iteration

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Speaker 3: of the company. But I actually have a suspicion it

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Speaker 3: did quite well where it was being offered.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, Clayton, there's a lot of love for Gambo del

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Speaker 1: Tora out there, and he has been to the mountaintop

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Speaker 1: with the Shape of Water. How do you think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna fare on Thursday morning?

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Speaker 2: Similar to PTA's movie, I said was box office teflon Like,

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Speaker 2: it didn't matter how poorly that movie could have done

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Speaker 2: box office wise, people were going to sill come out

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Speaker 2: for because of the reviews. And Ghermo del Toro has

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Speaker 2: that in terms of just being a personality in Hollywood,

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Speaker 2: Giermo's that beloved and that is hard to have that

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Speaker 2: type of reputation in Hollywood. It's just like the most

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Speaker 2: lovable person that's here. With that being said, I've always

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Speaker 2: said Netflix has the ground game on lock. It knows

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Speaker 2: how to get nominations. It just obviously can't close as

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Speaker 2: of yet. I still think Frankenstin's gonna do extremely well.

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Speaker 2: I think it's gonna probably get like ten nominations. They

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Speaker 2: got Amelia Press thirteen, they got Powered the Down twelve.

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Speaker 2: They know how to like run campaigns. Whether or not

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be the ultimate Best Picture winner in

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Speaker 2: the end. I mean that really remains to be seen.

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Speaker 2: I don't like to say definitely not, but stranger things

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Speaker 2: have happened at this point in time. I know people

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Speaker 2: get mad about the way they don't play in movie theaters,

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Speaker 2: but they are still given an avenue in a voice,

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Speaker 2: to someone like Germo Noltiro with an enormous budget to

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Speaker 2: make something like Pregnant Sign which would never have been made.

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Speaker 2: I think at a traditional studio they want to have

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Speaker 2: given him the money to do it.

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Speaker 1: Let me conclude by asking about Hamnet. Clayton, you warned

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Speaker 1: me it is an intense movie, but intense in the

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Speaker 1: way that by the end of it you do feel

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Speaker 1: like you have been on a journey. We saw at

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Speaker 1: the Golden Globes that Hamnet prevailed for drama. Now that

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Speaker 1: was in the curious situation of the Globes where one

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Speaker 1: battle after another was competing in comedy or musical. We

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Speaker 1: can juggle about that. But Clayton, what is your read

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Speaker 1: on Hamnet's chances?

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Speaker 2: You know, it's is deemed or stamp with the difficult

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Speaker 2: watch type of movie, so it took a lot of

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Speaker 2: people time to watch it. But the good thing about

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Speaker 2: a movie like Hamnet, you can be deemed like the

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Speaker 2: movie that it's hard to get through because of the

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Speaker 2: subject matter, but it's still a priority title and people

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Speaker 2: knew they had to watch it before they filled out

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Speaker 2: their ballots, and I always think that that is the

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Speaker 2: main difference, and it's anything you got to watch it

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Speaker 2: for Jesse Buckley, who I for me want an all

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Speaker 2: timer type of performance like she is remarkable in it.

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Speaker 2: And I think the movie's gonna do very well nomination wise.

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Speaker 2: Chloe Show's gonna make history be the first woman of

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Speaker 2: color to be nominated a second time and only the

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Speaker 2: second woman to be nominated twice the Best Director. So

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Speaker 2: the movie's gonna do a lot of history across the

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Speaker 2: board and I'm excited to see how far it can get.

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Speaker 1: Rebecca, how is Hamnett as a pure business proposition for

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Speaker 1: focused features.

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Speaker 3: It's been a strong art house release. It's only playing

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Speaker 3: right now in roughly seven hundred theaters, so it's still

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Speaker 3: in the midst of its platform release. I don't know

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Speaker 3: how wide it's going to end up expanding, but right

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Speaker 3: now it's made fifteen million dollars domestically and then internationally.

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Speaker 3: It's only been released again in around fifty percent of

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Speaker 3: the markets it will eventually be playing in, and it's

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Speaker 3: made around thirteen million dollars, so it's almost the thirty

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Speaker 3: million dollar mark, which is not as strong as some

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Speaker 3: of the other contenders we've talked about. But like you

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Speaker 3: both said, this is a difficult film to watch. It's

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Speaker 3: very sad. I think it's hard right now to convince

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Speaker 3: people to leave their home, pay a lot of money

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Speaker 3: to go sit in a theater and watch a depressing movie.

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Speaker 3: Of course, the performances are worth seeing, but or the

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Speaker 3: type of film it is, I think this is a

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Speaker 3: pretty decent turnout. And this is the type of movie

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Speaker 3: also that could get a big bump on OSCAR nominations

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Speaker 3: morning because it hasn't been as big of a commercial

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Speaker 3: hit as the One Battle after Another, Sinners Marty Supreme,

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Speaker 3: those type of films, and so this is really where

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Speaker 3: it could land on people's radars who are not as

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Speaker 3: closely watching the awards race.

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Speaker 1: Thank you both for joining me for a great conversation

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Speaker 1: about the art, the science, and the bottom line of

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Speaker 1: movies and oscars. Appreciate it. Thank you. As we close

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Speaker 1: out today's episode, here's a few things we're watching for.

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Speaker 1: Don't skip my colleague Aramadae Tanubou's review of Beauty FX's

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Speaker 1: latest drama from the Ryan Murphy Shop. Our headline is

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Speaker 1: quote the beauty isn't perfect, but it's still a pleasure

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Speaker 1: end quote. And as a big slice of the Variety

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Speaker 1: editorial staff heads off to Park City, Utah for the

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Speaker 1: start of the Sundance Film Festival on Thursday. Don't miss

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Speaker 1: our hot titles list, put together by my great colleagues

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Speaker 1: Brent Lang and Matt Donnelly. Before we go, Congrats to

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Speaker 1: Zach Garrett. He's been promoted to the post of Head

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Speaker 1: of Film. I'm at AGC Studios. He's been at the

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Speaker 1: indie film and TV finance and production company since twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Fun fact, AGC Studios founder and CEO Stuart Ford will

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Speaker 1: be my guest on Friday on Strictly Business Daily, Variety's

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Speaker 1: Companion Interview podcast. Thanks for listening. This episode was written

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Speaker 1: and reported by me Cynthia Littleton, with contributions from Rebecca

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Speaker 1: Rubin and Clayton Davis Stick's next hick Picks. Please leave

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Speaker 1: us a review at the podcast platform of your choice,

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Speaker 1: and please tune in tomorrow for another episode of Daily Variety,