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Speaker 1: Every time that we've seen a substantial weakening of the dollar,

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Speaker 1: we actually see redollarization. If the dollar becomes weaker against

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Speaker 1: your domestic currency, you can now borrow more dollars and

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Speaker 1: that old debt that you have is easier to pay off.

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Speaker 2: Did you ever think it was realistic that, of course

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Speaker 2: we're going to two hundred percent tariffs against China and

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Speaker 2: that was never going to come off, we'd never do

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Speaker 2: traders in again, or was it always that was going

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Speaker 2: to be sort of that negotiation point, the anchoring, if

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Speaker 2: you will, to allow us to come back off of

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Speaker 2: that into some negotiation.

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Speaker 1: We've offshored our industrial base, and so if you're going

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Speaker 1: to impose massive terrorists, you know that transition period could

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Speaker 1: definitely cause a very severe recession. Gold and bitcoin have

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Speaker 1: worked to, you know, hedge against debasement, against inflation for decades,

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Speaker 1: and of course gold has been theorized to be suppressed.

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Speaker 1: That's been suppressed by central banks and by bullion banks

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Speaker 1: for the last twenty thirty years. But that suppression is

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Speaker 1: finally coming to an end.

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Speaker 2: Do you think we end twenty twenty five higher than

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Speaker 2: we are now? Gold s and P five hundred and bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: Yes, to all three. The reason why is because.

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Speaker 2: The fact, all right, peb, you've been warning that Trump's

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Speaker 2: tariffs could be the final nail in the dollar's coffin

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Speaker 2: as the world reserve currency. You've talked a lot about

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Speaker 2: bitcoin potentially taking its place over what time frame do

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Speaker 2: you see these types of things happening?

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Speaker 1: You know, that's a difficult question to answer, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of people have posed that same question to me,

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Speaker 1: especially when I've given talks in person, like I did

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Speaker 1: just a few weeks ago in Vancouver, Canada. But it

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Speaker 1: really depends on, you know, the geopolitical chess match that

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Speaker 1: all these different players play, right, what are the moves

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Speaker 1: that they're going to make? The fundamental issue that is

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Speaker 1: that you know question here, right, is the actual structure

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Speaker 1: of the global monetary system, which is basically subject to

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Speaker 1: something called Triffan's dilemma. And this dilemma basically implies that

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Speaker 1: the US has to export dollars in order to fund

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Speaker 1: the global economy or to provide enough liquidity to the

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Speaker 1: global economy to allow trade to occur and now, and

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Speaker 1: for those dollars comes from many different sources, from the

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Speaker 1: euro dollar market, from international trade and settlement, from foreign

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Speaker 1: exchange and currency reserves for foreign central banks as well

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Speaker 1: as obviously the petro dollar system. And so all this

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Speaker 1: external dollar demand essentially needs to be supplied with dollar liquidity,

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Speaker 1: and this means the US has to choose whether they're

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Speaker 1: going to supply that supply that liquidity or not. Now,

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Speaker 1: if they don't do that, then we have a global

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Speaker 1: recession like you know two thousand and eight or even

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Speaker 1: before in the nineteen nineties, if the US decides to

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Speaker 1: not fund global liquidity enough. But if we do decide

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Speaker 1: to fund that global liquidity, we print too many dollars,

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Speaker 1: as Triffin said, under our gold reserve ratio, and that

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Speaker 1: causes us to break the gold pig, which we obviously

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Speaker 1: eventually did. So our system switched from a gold based

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Speaker 1: reserve system to what I would call a treasury based

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Speaker 1: reserve system. Right, the dollar is the reserve currency, but

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Speaker 1: the treasury is now the reserve asset. Now, this kind

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Speaker 1: of quasi balance was able to hang for as long

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Speaker 1: as the treasury bond remains money good in real terms. Right,

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Speaker 1: if you're earning real returns on your treasure bonds and

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Speaker 1: eure a foreign central banker, it makes sense for you

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Speaker 1: to hold these things. But the minute that the FED

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Speaker 1: decides to hike rates in a very very rapid fashion

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Speaker 1: to defeat inflation like they did in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: you start to see negative real returns on the treasure bonds.

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Speaker 1: And not only that, like you said earlier, the teriffs

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Speaker 1: that Trump has announced in the escalating wars essentially economic

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Speaker 1: war that has been playing out over the month of

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Speaker 1: April has basically meant that the stability and structure of

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Speaker 1: this monetary system has now been called into question. And

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear if you look at global central banks

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Speaker 1: on net they're funding much much less global of treasury

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Speaker 1: issuers than they were in twenty eight to twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 1: and if you look at even private entities, they're not

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Speaker 1: buying at the same pace that they were in years prior.

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Speaker 1: The marginal funder for US debt therefore has to eventually

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Speaker 1: become the fat, which is what I've said before in

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Speaker 1: dollar endgame, right like we'll have to do QB again

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Speaker 1: on a larger scale. And so all this means that

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Speaker 1: I think the tariffs and Trump's response to other countries

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Speaker 1: instituting retaliated retaliatory teriffs means that the equity markets, the

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Speaker 1: bond markets, everything starts to trace very very rapidly. And

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Speaker 1: that's why Trump had to basically recant a lot of

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Speaker 1: the insane terror phraates that he was proposing of, like

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Speaker 1: two hundred and three hundred percent on China and other countries.

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Speaker 2: Perfect framed it up very very well, all right. I

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Speaker 2: took lots of notes, lots of places for us to

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Speaker 2: dig in on that. Thank you for setting the stage

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Speaker 2: for that. So let's let's dig into some of the

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Speaker 2: pieces of this. So let's talk about Triffin's dilemma, which,

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Speaker 2: to the point that you made ended in nineteen seventy one. Basically, right,

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Speaker 2: Nixon took us off the gold standard, and now we're

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Speaker 2: in this free floating Fiat era treasury system or whatever

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Speaker 2: you want to call it. And you talked about the

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Speaker 2: need for the US to continue to supply dollar liquidity,

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Speaker 2: but you also mentioned.

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Speaker 3: Like the euro dollars, So the euro dollars.

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Speaker 2: Are outside of the US's control, right, so there is

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Speaker 2: dollar equity being created that the FED is not doing.

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Speaker 2: We also have now stable coins US dollar stable coins,

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Speaker 2: which are sort of another euro dollar standard. I would

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Speaker 2: say we could argue that and both of those things

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Speaker 2: could provide dollar liquidity to the world without the FED

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Speaker 2: necessarily having to do that upfront, right or.

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Speaker 3: No, Yes and no.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: If you study the euro dollar system, and if you've

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Speaker 1: read Jeff Snyder's work, you'll come to understand that the

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Speaker 1: Euro dollar system is essentially synthetic dollars, and same with right,

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Speaker 1: you know, ustt stable coins, these kinds of things, because

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Speaker 1: unless they show proof of reserves, unless we know for

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Speaker 1: a fact that they are backed one to one by

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Speaker 1: real dollars, we can, you know, basically assume that this

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Speaker 1: functions similarly to the Euro dollar system, which is basically

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Speaker 1: entirely synthetic dollars. Now, those synthetic euro dollars, right, they

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Speaker 1: are backed by a portion of real US dollar reserves

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Speaker 1: held that correspondent banks in the United States. So it's

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Speaker 1: not to say that the system is complete fabrication. But

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Speaker 1: if let's say twenty percent of them are held as

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Speaker 1: US dollars and the system grows substantially every single year,

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Speaker 1: then that obviously increases real dollar demand, which is why

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Speaker 1: the US has to export dollars, i e. They have

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Speaker 1: to do the opposite of the trade balance, which means

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Speaker 1: import goods and create a trade deficit in order to

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Speaker 1: sustain the global economy. And I've seen people on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: like Parker Lewis and others who have claimed, you know,

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Speaker 1: this isn't how the system works. We don't actually need

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Speaker 1: to export dollars. That's all a lie. And to them,

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Speaker 1: I would show them the chart of the US central

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Speaker 1: bank liquidity swap lines that the FED opened post two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight and post twenty twenty in the aftermath

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Speaker 1: of obviously the Great Financial Crisis and COVID nineteen. And

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Speaker 1: those charts are pretty telling because you see very quickly

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Speaker 1: how the FED has to offer hundreds of billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars in liquidity swaps basically meaning a US dollar for

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Speaker 1: their domestic currency swap to all these regional banks. And

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Speaker 1: why because they need their own banks, right, all these

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Speaker 1: central banks, correspondent banks, these smaller commercials need liquidity. They

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Speaker 1: need real US dollars to back up the euro dollar

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Speaker 1: basically like fake dollars that they've created.

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Speaker 2: And just to put some numbers on that for the audience,

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Speaker 2: we have the real problem is approximately three hundred trillion

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Speaker 2: dollars of US dollar denominated debt and only about one

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Speaker 2: hundred trillion dollars of dollars, right, and so we need

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Speaker 2: more dollars to pay off the dollar denominated debt. It's

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Speaker 2: going to demand the dollars to pay that off the

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Speaker 2: US dollars table coins. I can understand you saying that

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Speaker 2: because in order to get the stable coin you have.

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Speaker 3: To have a dollar. You have to pledge a dollar

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Speaker 3: to get a dollar.

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Speaker 2: Back, So it's somewhat of like a one for one,

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Speaker 2: if you will. The euro dollar market is not backed

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Speaker 2: by anything other than the confidence in the banking system overall.

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Speaker 3: But I guess that's that's a whole other.

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Speaker 2: Issue that we can get into. But you did speak

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Speaker 2: about the FED doing less treasury issue and how it's

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Speaker 2: gone down, and so the FED has been less involved,

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Speaker 2: but yet US treasuries are still being sold.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: We do know that if you look at like central

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Speaker 2: banks net purchases, that they've been going up in golden

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Speaker 2: down in US treasuries, but it's almost like at the

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Speaker 2: same time the demand has stayed there. So it just seems,

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Speaker 2: like you said, it depends on how bad this like

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Speaker 2: system degrades, if you will, right, But it seems like

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Speaker 2: it's been holding pretty good.

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Speaker 3: All things considered.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say it has been. But the main

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Speaker 1: reason's been holding together, you know, so to speak, is

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Speaker 1: because of actions behind the scenes that the central bankers

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Speaker 1: and the monetary authorities have been doing. So just like

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Speaker 1: what you described right there, right, the FED has been

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Speaker 1: tapering off their treasury supply right essentially doing QT. If

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Speaker 1: you actually look behind the hood or below the hood,

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Speaker 1: you see that all things aren't really equal in terms

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Speaker 1: of prior quantitative tightening cycles. The FED in this cycle

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Speaker 1: did not sell on net anything past ten years, meaning

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Speaker 1: you know, during the kiwi's run up, they bought a

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Speaker 1: ton of bills, they bought a ton of notes, they

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Speaker 1: bought a ton of bonds, ten year, twenty year, and

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Speaker 1: thirty year bonds. And then during the taper and I

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Speaker 1: have a chart for this and I can send it

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Speaker 1: to you if you want to display it on the

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Speaker 1: screen now, where when they started the taper everything past

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Speaker 1: ten years they actually did not sell. In fact, they

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Speaker 1: kept increasing their holdings of the ten year, twenty year

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Speaker 1: and thirty year bonds while they decreased their holdings of

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Speaker 1: bills and notes. And so this meant that on the surface,

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Speaker 1: while their overall size of their balance sheet continued to decrease,

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Speaker 1: the actual holdings of bonds remained high and continued to climb,

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Speaker 1: and so that meant that, in my opinion, right, the

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Speaker 1: Fed understood that they could not lay off this amount

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Speaker 1: of bonds without causing yields to completely blow out, and

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Speaker 1: so they did this intelligent you know, behind the scenes,

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Speaker 1: you'd call it STEALTHI liquidity, where while they were tapering,

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Speaker 1: they just ensured that they didn't sell any of the

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Speaker 1: long term bonds and in fact bought more to provide

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Speaker 1: support for the bond market. And the reason why this

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Speaker 1: is important, of course, is because of duration risk. Right,

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Speaker 1: banks can much more easily hedge against a short duration

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Speaker 1: bond than a long duration bond, just because a long

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Speaker 1: duration bond has much more interest rate risk than a

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Speaker 1: bill for example.

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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I definitely saw that this week. We can

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Speaker 3: see some of the reports on that.

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Speaker 2: Now that's the dilemma, that's sort of where we're at,

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Speaker 2: and we can just frame it up with the rock

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Speaker 2: of the hard place, right do we keep printing?

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Speaker 3: Do we keep manipulating? If so, like how long can

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Speaker 3: that last?

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Speaker 2: But maybe that leads us into the next big topic,

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Speaker 2: which is the tariffs that we have so far. A

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Speaker 2: couple of things that you mentioned. One was that, you know,

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Speaker 2: we had these insane tariffs, you know, one hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty five percent against China and then two hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty five percent against China and things like that, And

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Speaker 2: you mentioned I forget the exact word you use, but

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Speaker 2: you know, Trump backtracking or coming off of that, right.

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Speaker 2: A lot of the mainstream media headlines that you would

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Speaker 2: see or like he's caving or things like that. But

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Speaker 2: from an analyst perspective, I mean, did you ever think

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Speaker 2: it was realistic that, of course we're going to have

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Speaker 2: two and fift percent tariffs against China and that was

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Speaker 2: never going to come off, we'd never do trade with

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Speaker 2: him again. Or was it always that was going to

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Speaker 2: be sort of that negotiation point, the anchoring, if you will,

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Speaker 2: to allow us to come back off of that into

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Speaker 2: some negotiation.

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Speaker 1: I think it was. I mean, I think it was.

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Speaker 1: It was basically like a retaliatory, almost like show of force. Right.

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Speaker 1: It was a chicken game, if you will have two

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Speaker 1: cars racing at each other, right, And Trump thought that

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Speaker 1: he held a much much stronger hand than he actually does.

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Speaker 1: Because again, the issue comes when you realize the implications

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Speaker 1: of Triffin's alma as well as obviously the results of it.

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Speaker 1: The implication is that we need to fend out dollars

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Speaker 1: on net to the global economy to fund basically global trade.

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Speaker 1: But the other implication, obviously is that we've shorter industrial base,

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Speaker 1: and so if you're going to impose massive terrorists in

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Speaker 1: the you know, desire to move us back to an

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Speaker 1: autarcic economy, basically an economy that's self sufficient, that doesn't

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Speaker 1: need to have maybe much import export, that can basically

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Speaker 1: provide everything that it that it needs just by itself.

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Speaker 1: It's going to take a lot of time to reshore

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Speaker 1: industrial bases, to retrain American workers, and then there's obviously

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Speaker 1: like the cost implications for high end manufacturing iPhones, consumer electronics, cars.

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Speaker 3: Et cetera.

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Speaker 1: And that you know, that transition period could definitely cause

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Speaker 1: a very severe recession. But even more importantly than that,

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Speaker 1: obviously it would cause an unwind of a lot of

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Speaker 1: these carry trade and pro liquidity effects that have taken

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Speaker 1: place with regards to this Tripan's dilemma that's been playing

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Speaker 1: out for the last thirty to fifty years. And so

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Speaker 1: that means that equity markets and bond markets are going

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Speaker 1: to fall, you know, substantially. And I don't think Trump

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Speaker 1: was ready for that amount of economic pain. And I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying that, you know, whether it's right or wrong

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Speaker 1: that we should move back towards a more self sufficient

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Speaker 1: and more reshort industrial economy, or if we should let

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Speaker 1: our manufacturers move overseas and basically ship away all of

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Speaker 1: our jobs. But there's always trade offs, right. This is

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Speaker 1: a world of nuanced there's never anything simple, and so

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Speaker 1: if you want to do that, that path you're going

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Speaker 1: to cause, you know, incur a lot of economic pain.

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Speaker 1: And so yeah, I think that two forty five percent

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Speaker 1: was just a almost like a bloviating show move, if

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Speaker 1: you will. That was just meant to scare people. But

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Speaker 1: in reality that that kind of thing would not hold

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Speaker 1: long term if you want to basically retain our global

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Speaker 1: monetary system as it is.

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Speaker 2: And I don't think that was ever the plan, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously he wrote the book Art of the Deal,

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Speaker 2: which is anchoring, right, you go high, you set a low,

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Speaker 2: so it opens the door for negotiations.

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Speaker 3: I think a couple of things in that as well

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Speaker 3: that I think.

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Speaker 2: About is that you know, Stephen Moran, who's his economic

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Speaker 2: Trump's economic advisor, wrote a paper before Trump became president

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Speaker 2: and basically coined the term mar Alago Accords. And so

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Speaker 2: he sort of laid out this playbook that seems to

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Speaker 2: be sort of what the Trump administration is following down now,

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Speaker 2: this playbook into this mar A Lago Accords.

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Speaker 3: Maybe not exactly.

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Speaker 2: I think maybe he's moved more aggressively than was laid

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Speaker 2: out in the paper. But I think also in that

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Speaker 2: so the two hundred and forty five percent was much

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Speaker 2: more aggressive. There's been a lot of talk about this

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Speaker 2: potential game of chicken. I think as you called it,

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Speaker 2: I would agree with that. Forming like this game of chicken,

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Speaker 2: like who could go longer China or the US? Realistically,

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Speaker 2: neither of us could survive without each other. I mean

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Speaker 2: it'd be very rough if we did, right, And I thought, man,

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Speaker 2: I mean, China welded people in their frigging houses during

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Speaker 2: the pandemic, like they can go through a lot of pain,

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Speaker 2: Like the US isn't going to put up with that.

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Speaker 2: Right as of like yesterday and today, though, it looks

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Speaker 2: like China is like caving like super fast. Right, they

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Speaker 2: already switched to easing. They're like begging for a meeting.

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Speaker 2: It's looking like they want to deal pretty quickly. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if you've been paying attention to that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, and I'm not surprised that they do. You know,

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Speaker 1: while the CCP can maintain basically, like you know, monetary

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Speaker 1: and economic harsh conditions much longer than the US can,

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Speaker 1: it does not behoove them to do that at this

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Speaker 1: current juncture. Right, We've seen a Chinese economy for the

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Speaker 1: last two or three years that's been in basically recession

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Speaker 1: or complete contraction due to the real estate and banking

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Speaker 1: sectors starting to fall from their massive shadow real estate

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Speaker 1: bubble that's been imploding. We saw the you know, the

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Speaker 1: bankruptcy of Country Garden and Evergrand and several other large developers,

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Speaker 1: as well as defaults of major property developers all across

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Speaker 1: China and their failure to pay dollar bonds as well

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Speaker 1: as on shore yuan bonds, and so the Chinese economy

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Speaker 1: essentially has kind of reached this I think severe inflection

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Speaker 1: point where they now need to choose what they're going

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Speaker 1: to go forward with a path of deflation and let

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Speaker 1: their estate bubble basically burst in slow motion essentially like

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, or are they going to reflate

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Speaker 1: the bubble and print the yuan and let the UoN devalue.

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Speaker 1: And that's a difficult decision to make because either way,

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Speaker 1: obviously there's economic pain, but the winners and losers are

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Speaker 1: different in each scenario. Right, If you choose the deflationary path,

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Speaker 1: then obviously the equity holders and the bond holders are

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Speaker 1: going to get wiped out, but you might be able

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Speaker 1: to retain that yuan seven point three to the dollar

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Speaker 1: peg for a lot longer. And then if you go

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Speaker 1: the other way, obviously you're going to see a blood

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Speaker 1: in your currency. But on the plus side, the exports

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Speaker 1: become much more competitive, so China, and China has been

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Speaker 1: trying to show this strong face, right, this poker face.

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Speaker 1: But again, if you look at I mean even the

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Speaker 1: data like I was looking at this yesterday. Ever since

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, they've stopped publishing most of their economic

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Speaker 1: data publicly. If you look at youth unemployment, you look

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Speaker 1: at factory orders, you look at new homes and new

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Speaker 1: home leases in China, all the figures just won't be

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Speaker 1: reported anymore. By their version of the BLS and so

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Speaker 1: that tells me that things are pretty bad there right now.

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Speaker 1: They just don't want the US to know because obviously

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Speaker 1: that would weaken their hand.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, but it is a game of chicken.

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Speaker 2: The way I see it is back to these mariologue

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Speaker 2: with chords was like obviously put pressure on China. And

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Speaker 2: I think there's even in the Biden administration with sort

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Speaker 2: of this stance on China trying to put them back.

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Speaker 3: In their place.

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Speaker 2: I think it's probably more from the intelligence community than

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Speaker 2: just the Biden or Trump administration. But you know, Biden

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Speaker 2: is the one that took away their ability to get

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Speaker 2: microchips for example, right advanced microchips, right to limit their

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Speaker 2: their technology, and then started the Chips Act to start

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Speaker 2: bringing on shore and some of that back.

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Speaker 3: And when you think about that, it's terrorists are really about.

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Speaker 2: Like more strategic moves, right. So it's like the US

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Speaker 2: doesn't need to make T shirts and sneakers here, like

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Speaker 2: we gave those jobs up a long time ago. But

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Speaker 2: it's like there are strategic things that we should be

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Speaker 2: doing here, like you know, rare earth elements having to

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Speaker 2: steal in copper so we could actually make things. So

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Speaker 2: I think there's like things that are strategic. It was

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Speaker 2: never about bringing all the jobs back. It's like, what

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Speaker 2: are the jobs that we need here, and let's just

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Speaker 2: bring those back. We don't need to grow mangoes or

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Speaker 2: coconuts like we can let other people do those things

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Speaker 2: as well. And that seems to be happening at a

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Speaker 2: pretty breakneck speed. As a matter of fact, if you

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Speaker 2: saw the latest GDP numbers that came out, right, we

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Speaker 2: had a negative print, but that was adjusted for what

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Speaker 2: a forty one percent increase surgeon imports. But when you

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Speaker 2: look at the investments that were going on in the US,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Trump announced eight trillion dollars of investments going

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Speaker 2: on in the United States, it looks like we're going

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Speaker 2: into some sort of like a reindustrialization that we haven't

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Speaker 2: seen since like the nineteen forties.

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Speaker 1: Almost, Yeah, I mean, I would hope so, right, because again,

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Speaker 1: the negative effects, right, the knock on effects of the

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Speaker 1: offshoring of our industrial base are is pretty substantial. It's

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Speaker 1: you know, pretty sad to see as well. Like the

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Speaker 1: you know, in the rost belt States, one of the

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Speaker 1: leading causes for death now is opioid detention and depression

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Speaker 1: and basically economic malaise is now kind of common young

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Speaker 1: young men, especially in those areas. And so when you

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Speaker 1: destroy the ability of especially a large section of the

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Speaker 1: middle class to make money and to provide for themselves,

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Speaker 1: and you offshore that to foreign countries where they just

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Speaker 1: do it cheaper, and they still don't treat their workers

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Speaker 1: well obviously, right in Southeast Asia, that just demoralizes the people,

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Speaker 1: and it obviously impacts the local economies very very severely.

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Speaker 1: And so I think reindustrialization obviously should happen. But the

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Speaker 1: question is, of course, like you said, what things should

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Speaker 1: we bring back? And I think high technology things that

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Speaker 1: are critical to defense, you know, lithium, copper, cadmium, things

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Speaker 1: that are needed for battery and ev production obviously, but

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Speaker 1: like you said, agricultural products, certain consumer goods, we don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily need to produce those here. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: a balancing act.

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Speaker 3: The problem with.

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Speaker 1: The tariffs as they're constructed now is that tru you know,

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Speaker 1: came out guns blazing with this tariff policy, thinking that

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Speaker 1: essentially the US was invulnerable, and then very quickly saw

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Speaker 1: the market start to retrace. Right. We saw the twenty

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Speaker 1: year and the thirty year bond hit five percent within

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Speaker 1: like a week, and credit spread start to blow out

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Speaker 1: in early April, and that signaled him quickly that things

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Speaker 1: were not going to go as smoothly as he had hoped,

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Speaker 1: and so we started announcing basically exclusions. So he said, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're going to apply terrorifts except for iPhone you know manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: and except for automotive manufacturers, and except for you know, X,

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00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 1: Y and Z industries that need to have their cheap

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Speaker 1: goods in order to produce cheap finish goods here in

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Speaker 1: the US. The issue with that is that.

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Speaker 1: This excludes small businesses, right, so small businesses won't be

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Speaker 1: won't be able to benefit from those exemptions that the

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Speaker 1: large businesses are able to. And so that means that

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Speaker 1: small businesses, if these teriffs are held in place as

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Speaker 1: they're currently structured, the small businesses are going to be

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Speaker 1: damaged quite significantly by the terrafs. And you know, that's

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00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: where I think Trump needs to make some readjustments in

436
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 1: his overall tariff policy to make sure that small business

437
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 1: businesses and small business owners, especially small manufacturers and goods,

438
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 1: don't get walloped by these things.

439
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, a small business owner, are you buried in all

440
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 2: types of work keeping you from the real thing that

441
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 2: makes you money. Well that's where just Works comes in.

442
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 2: They're the all in one platform that supports small business growth.

443
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 3: You can get all.

444
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,760
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445
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,920
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446
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 2: top talent internationally, internew markets, quickly scale international operations without

447
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 2: the workload, and for every how do I do it? Question,

448
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 2: you can reach out to their expert staff from sole

449
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 2: proprietor or a team of twenty. Just Works empowers all

450
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 2: kinds of small businesses with real human support. So visit

451
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: justworks dot com slash podcast to join the thousands of

452
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: small businesses that trust just Works to take care of payroll, benefits,

453
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: compliance and more. Again, that's Justworks dot Com. Slash podcasts

454
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 2: now part of the Marilogo Accords, and even the name

455
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: sort of spells it out Accords kind of echoing rhyming

456
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: the Plaza Accords of nineteen eighty five, very similar to also,

457
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 2: you know what was done probably in nineteen forty four.

458
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 2: So we have these periods of time, these historical moments

459
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: where the global monetary system sort of gets realigned. So

460
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 2: you know, obviously nineteen forty four Bretwood Agreement, the whole

461
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 2: world agreed nineteen eighty five, and those moments were like

462
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 2: really getting the world to sort of agree to peg

463
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 2: back to the US dollar to allow the US dollar

464
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: to devalue. And that appears to be the same sort

465
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: of goal of this these type of cords, the Marlago

466
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 2: coords is get in the US to sort of repeg

467
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 2: back to the US dollar and allow the dollar to

468
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 2: devalue as well. That's the way that it seems to

469
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 2: be right now. Part of that is realigning trade. So

470
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 2: if we can get about forty percent of global trade

471
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: to be aligned to the US dollar, we can keep

472
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,360
Speaker 2: the US currency as sort of this like I think

473
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: he wants to keep it about sixty percent right now,

474
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 2: we're about fifty nine percent of global trade.

475
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 3: Then we can allow the US to sort of have

476
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 3: this coordinated devaluation. That's what I'm picking up. What do

477
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 3: you think the ultimate goal of this is?

478
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: No, I absolutely think that you're right on the money

479
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 1: with that. If you look at statements from you know,

480
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 1: a Cent even Lutnik right as well as that paper

481
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: that you mentioned which I've I've read excerpts from, they

482
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 1: do seem to be basically an agreement on weakening the

483
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: dollar substantially. And the weakening dollar thing is actually a

484
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: very intelligent strategy if you look at it from a

485
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: geopolitical standpoint. The way that the system is structured is

486
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: very counterintuitive, right, because again we most of us would

487
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: think that, especially goldbugs, would go out and claim that

488
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: a weaker dollar means that gold is going to rip,

489
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: the dollars is going to collapse, Dixie to thirty, and

490
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 1: Peter Shift will be vindicated in the end. Right, we

491
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: can all, we can all throw a party rit with

492
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: Mike Maloney and Peter Shiff in their warehouse. But if

493
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: you look at the fundamental reality again of how the

494
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: EU at all system works, of how the global monetary

495
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: system works, that's not the case. I wrote a paper

496
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 1: about this back in mid April. But every time that

497
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: we've seen a substantial weakening of the dollar, we actually

498
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: see redollarization. So that means, you know, if the dollar

499
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 1: becomes weaker and you're a foreign let's say you know,

500
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 1: you're a consumer goods manufacturer in Pakistan, U owe dollar

501
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: debt already via the euro dollar system. Right, if the

502
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: dollar becomes weaker against your domestic currency, you can now

503
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 1: borrow more dollars and that old debt that you have

504
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: is easier to pay off. So that means, on net,

505
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: the whole system actually starts to increase their borrowing of

506
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: US dollar and US denominated debt, and so that means

507
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: obviously that the system becomes even more reliant on the

508
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: dollar over time with a weaker comparatively weaker dollar, and

509
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 1: so de dollarization is not when the dollar's falling in

510
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 1: this case, that's redollarization, and a spike in the dollar

511
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: is actually the you know rush for liquidity that all

512
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: these corporate rits and countries and banks are doing in

513
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: order to fund their dollar debt. So a higher Dixie

514
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: is actually emblematic of a breakdown in the global monetary system,

515
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 1: not a lower one. And so that's why we saw

516
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: obviously a very high Dixie in the nineteen eighty five

517
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 1: Plaza Cords. That's why they had to devalue, because they

518
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: had to reset the global monetary system and allow enough

519
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: liquidity to flow out to settle all these dollar denominated debts.

520
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: And so, you know, Brent Johnson has been running about

521
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: this for a long time as well. Right, this this

522
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: lower dollar actually strengthens the milkshake and it extends the

523
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: lifetime of the you know, dollars dominance in the global

524
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 1: monetary system.

525
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you look at the dixie a dollar index

526
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 2: compared to a basket of other top currencies, we're nowhere

527
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 2: near the top where we were in the nineteen eighty

528
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 2: five Plaza cords. But I was just looking at a

529
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 2: chart of from the BIS of the US dollars relative strength.

530
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 2: So it's like an adjusted matrix and we're like a

531
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: but weal well above historical levels. So when you look

532
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,479
Speaker 2: at it from that perspective, But even if you look

533
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 2: at from the Dixie, I mean, maybe a more historical

534
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 2: number might be eighty five or ninety I mean, which

535
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 2: if you look at it from that perspective, if you

536
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 2: think maybe the goal is to.

537
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 3: Devalue the dollar, would it revert to the mean? What

538
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 3: is the mean?

539
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 2: Is that eighty five or ninety? Is that a ten

540
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 2: to fifteen percent drop from here? And then what does

541
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 2: that mean? How do you think about that math or

542
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 2: that mechanic?

543
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, you're right, you know what very long term

544
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 1: Dixie averages is eighty five, eighty seven, you know, up

545
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,959
Speaker 1: to ninety. So a ten to fifteen percent drop from

546
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: here is basically bring us back to baseline. And like

547
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: I said, that means that you know that weaker dollar

548
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: will help to restabilize let's say the euro dollar market

549
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: and to provide liquidity for all these banks. But more importantly, obviously,

550
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: it will help these other countries who need to earn

551
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: dollars into you know, essentially hold those dollars as foreign

552
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: exchange reserves for future money crisis, like the like the

553
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,959
Speaker 1: Japanese have been doing with their interventions, or even like

554
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: you know, the the BOE or the ECB may have

555
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 1: to do in the future to defend the euro or

556
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:15,360
Speaker 1: the pound. And a higher dollar is basically restricting all

557
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 1: of those.

558
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 3: All of those goals.

559
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 1: Now, a week of dollar will impact obviously tourism for Americans.

560
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: They'll be harder for us to buy go a boat

561
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: and buy goods and services if we're if we're going

562
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: and traveling, But overall, it's a net benefit for the

563
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 1: global monetary system as it is.

564
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 2: So that seems to be perfectly in line with this plan,

565
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 2: because what Trump wants is more manufacturing in the US,

566
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 2: less exports, and so if we have a week a dollar,

567
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 2: that's exactly what it does. It makes us more competitive

568
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 2: on our exports, and it makes it harder for people

569
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 2: to import into the United States exactly.

570
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: And if you can switch, remember again they still need

571
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: to provide dollars. So if you can switch the dollar

572
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: funding line from just exports and trade for goods, which

573
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: is just you know, quid pro quote transaction where I

574
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: give you dollars and you give me a bunch of

575
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: Chinese electronics or Taiwani semiconductors. Right, if you switch that

576
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: from a you know, let's say, like trade based arrangement

577
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: to a financial arrangement where instead of saying, hey, I'm

578
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: going to be you know, giving a bunch of dollars

579
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: for your manufactured goods, I'm going to swap a bunch

580
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: of dollars for your you know, own currency reserves. That

581
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: allows that the system to reindustrialize, I guess much better

582
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: than it would if you were stuck on that first mode.

583
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: And so what they're trying to do is this kind

584
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: of game of geopolitical chess where they're trying to figure

585
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: out how to manage their supposed mandate of reshowing the

586
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 1: American industrial base and solving the problems that the populacets

587
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: have basically proclaimed to be plaguing America, as well as

588
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: working with the global monetary system as it works today, right,

589
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: not allowing a global monetary crisis to develop under their watch.

590
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: Let's just say that switching the in total entire global

591
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: monetary system is not a smooth There's all types of

592
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: unintended consequences that will happen throughout that it can't be

593
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: a smooth process. We could certainly argue for and against

594
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 2: the case that Trump moved too fast or was too aggressive, but.

595
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 3: I would say, like zooming out. I don't know if

596
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 3: maybe you retweeted.

597
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 2: Or I saw somewhere online, but uh oh no, it

598
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: wasn't you with somebody else. But they're just saying, like

599
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: after Powell's announcement today that like he's a he's a legend.

600
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 3: Like I mean, he.

601
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 2: Seemingly might have pulled off a soft landing, which nobody

602
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 2: thought was possible. China's coming around to negotiation looks like

603
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 2: a deal with India's done.

604
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 3: The dollar devalues a.

605
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: Little bit, the world gets what they want, we bring

606
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: some manufacturing back to the US. I mean, I kind

607
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: of see a path here with unintended consequences all throughout.

608
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 2: I'm just kind of bullish. What's your view?

609
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would, I would broadly, you know, agree with

610
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: that statement, although I would give some right so obviously,

611
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: you know, after that first kind of you know, Mayhem

612
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: with Liberation Day slash liquidation Day and the credits bed

613
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: flowing out and spy falling, as well as nick Ay

614
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: and DAX index falling substantially in early April. They've they've

615
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: been able to reshuffle their their chestboard and make the

616
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 1: best moves that they can given the circumstances. The issue,

617
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: you know, comes when you start to like visualize the

618
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: long term problems that are still plaguing in the US. Right.

619
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: Although we can again restructure some things within the global

620
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: monetary system like resource some industrial manufacturing, or provide liquidity

621
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 1: via dollar swap lines to these other central banks and

622
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: then weaken the dollars substantially like we did in the

623
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: positive courts in nineteen eighty five, the long term problems

624
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: of the debt and the deficit are not solved. And

625
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: even given Elon Musk Doge Project and you know, substantial

626
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: pushes from Republicans and a few Democrats to reduce the

627
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: deficits meaningfully, nothing has really been done. And the actual,

628
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: you know, put, the actual accomplishment of that goal is

629
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: much much more difficult than most people realize, right because

630
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: there's so many vested interests that have basically money being

631
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: that's being made from the government deficits, and so we

632
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: don't solve the debt problem. Even with rates here, we

633
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: don't solve the deficit problem. We don't solve the eventual

634
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 1: need for QI or for finding some other source of funding.

635
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: And even if the FED continues to do their sealth

636
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: qui by you know, shifting issue INCE or the treasure,

637
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: that can do the same thing, right, the treasure can

638
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: shift issue INCE from the long end to the short

639
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: end and essentially provide quasi self liquidity via that mechanism.

640
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: Nothing fundamentally has been solved about the thirty seven trillion

641
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: dollar debt and the one trillion plus of interest six

642
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: months we have every single year. And so that's the

643
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 1: issue that I still see hurting the United States.

644
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, then ain't being solved. There ain't no solution for that.

645
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a there's a small chance potentially through

646
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 2: some high inflation for a couple of years, like Luke

647
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: Grama talks about, maybe through super you know, double digit

648
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: inflation for three four years, we can bring the ratio

649
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: of debt down potentially and if you know, some miracle

650
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 2: with efficiency gains through AI through Trump repealing, you know,

651
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 2: twenty thirty percent of the regulations and unleashing the American economy.

652
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: Maybe we can make a dent and growing out of

653
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: it a little bit. I don't see us making a

654
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 2: lot of ground on that. So that's just kind of

655
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 2: like is what it is, is like the it's like

656
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: the modern medical system, like we'll just treat the symptom.

657
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: We can't really cure it.

658
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 2: We let's just manage the sickness kind of a thing.

659
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: So in that frame, which we're both sort of agreen,

660
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 2: then really it comes down to the rate of degradation,

661
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: like how how bad does it get in how fast?

662
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: But the direction that we're going is pretty set, so

663
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 2: we have to think about then how do we protect ourselves?

664
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 3: Or I like to think abou how do we make

665
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 3: money through this?

666
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: Right?

667
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: I know you like to talk about gold and bitcoin,

668
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 3: as do I.

669
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: Two assets that are sort of not only outside of

670
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 2: that financial system, but out of outside of any country

671
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 2: as well, maybe as lifeboats. How do you look at

672
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 2: them in regards to the mechanics of this debt bubble

673
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 2: that we're in.

674
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: Sure, so I've written several pieces about gold and bitcoin

675
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,479
Speaker 1: and their correlation to global liquidity, and Michael Howells also

676
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: touched on this as well. There are several other macro

677
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: analysts you can check out, but essentially, what I found

678
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: is that gold has been a pretty prescient front runner

679
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: of global liquidity waves by about twelve to eighteen months,

680
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: and bitcoin has been unfortunately the laggard, but obviously a

681
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: much more extreme and you know, volatile laggard in the

682
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 1: in the sense that if gold will go up, you know,

683
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: let's say ten to twenty percent, bitcoin can go up

684
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: sixty percent seventy percent, just because of the nature of

685
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: its electronic means of payment as well as obviously smaller

686
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: market cap. But gold and bitcoin have worked to you know,

687
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 1: hedge against debase, against inflation for decades. And of course

688
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 1: gold has been theorized to be suppressed, and I think

689
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: that there are there's credence to that claim. That's been

690
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 1: suppressed by central banks and by bullion banks for the

691
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,439
Speaker 1: last twenty thirty years. But that suppression is finally coming

692
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: to an end. And the reason why it's coming to

693
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 1: an end is something I talked about in a podcast

694
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 1: in March as well as a written piece in February.

695
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: But what I essentially was getting at was if you

696
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 1: look at the comax and the physical orders and the

697
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: physical deliveries that are now being made. It's starting to

698
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 1: reach epic proportions, right even rivaling what we saw during

699
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: twenty twenty in March during the COVID nineteen shutdown and

700
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: the massive withdrawal of liquidity from the global banking system.

701
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 1: So the question now becomes, right, who is doing this,

702
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:48,439
Speaker 1: Who's drawing this liquidity, and who's drawing this physical gold

703
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: out of the system, and who is trying to front

704
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 1: run at what they view, in my opinion as a

705
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 1: new global liquidity wave. And I think that is mainly

706
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: the Chinese and now the Americans. If you look at

707
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: the physical gold orders from Shanghai, from the Shanghai Gold Exchange,

708
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 1: they've been very very consistently showing an increased appetite for

709
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: gold ever since twenty twenty two, and especially a delta

710
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: in the difference between the Shanghai physical gold rate, which

711
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 1: is their cash basically like their spot market for physical

712
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 1: gold and the COMEX. You see like a fifty sixty

713
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: to seventy dollars delta open up at sometimes, and so

714
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 1: that allows traders to arbitrage the trade between those two nations,

715
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: and so that was responsible for the first leg of

716
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 1: gold appreciation from let's say twenty twenty two to late

717
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three mid twenty twenty four, and that shifted

718
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: obviously once especially once Trump took office, we saw a

719
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 1: massive amount of gold deliveries and what I believe to

720
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 1: be a rush of physical redemptions for Fort Knox. Now,

721
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 1: again this isn't confirmed because the government won't release this data.

722
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 1: But according to stone X, which is one of the

723
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 1: exchanges in the LBMA and one of the market makers

724
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: that settles physical gold trades, they found that there was

725
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: around you know, seven hundred tons of physical gold that

726
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: was shipped from London to the United States in the

727
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 1: two months of January and February of this year. Now,

728
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: the official import numbers are for thirteen hundred tons, so

729
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,720
Speaker 1: that means that, you know, if we shipped in seven

730
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: if they declared seven hundred tons shipped to the COMEX

731
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: and then there was thirteen hundred tons total, where's that

732
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 1: other eight hundred tons going? And a move of that size,

733
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: obviously is in two months what the US would normally

734
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 1: import in a year or two years, and so it's

735
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 1: a huge move and the only type of gold that

736
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 1: doesn't have to get outright claimed on our import export

737
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: numbers is what's called monetary gold. So this is gold

738
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: in four hundred ounce bars. And so that monetary gold

739
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: would only really be going to one place, and that's

740
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 1: Fort Knox. And so again you just use the equals

741
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: be A plus equal C. Rationalization is that the US

742
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: is now starting to I guess you could call it

743
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 1: reshore or call in its gold reserves and basically called

744
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 1: a bluff on the l B m A and on

745
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 1: the Bank of England on their paper gold certificates that

746
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: they've that they've sent out. And so that's why the

747
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 1: lease rates in London exploded in January and February. That's

748
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 1: why we saw massive gold backlogs, redemption backlogs at the

749
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 1: Bank of England. And that's probably why they don't want

750
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,479
Speaker 1: to do the audit just yet. Even though Elon Musk

751
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 1: and Trump have talked about auditing the gold reserves at

752
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: Fort Knox. It's because they're still waiting to refill all

753
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: of the empty vaults with with physical gold because right

754
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 1: now what they have is mostly IOUs in there.

755
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 3: It's an interesting theory. We'll see how that shakes out.

756
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 3: I did a video talking about this number one. Obviously,

757
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 3: that talk got.

758
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 2: Really big about why don't we audit it? Which seems

759
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 2: so simple, like why don't we audit it?

760
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 3: And they're like, of course we audit it happens all

761
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: the time. This is not public, so I don't know.

762
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 3: We'll see about that.

763
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 2: But I also talked about in a video that potentially,

764
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,439
Speaker 2: potentially what if we found out there was more gold

765
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: than Fort Knox, then that could be equally as bad,

766
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 2: if not even worse, because.

767
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 1: Why did you say that?

768
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 2: I would say it'd be worse because what if we

769
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 2: had more gold in Fort Knox than we thought we had?

770
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:28,800
Speaker 3: So then why would the US be buying more gold?

771
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 2: They're preparing for some sort of currency collapse that they're

772
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: trying to shore up.

773
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: What do they know that we don't know? Should we

774
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 3: be shoring up our currency? Right?

775
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 2: I would I would think it would signal a weaker standpoint.

776
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 2: I think the US could argue why it doesn't have gold.

777
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 2: I mean Canada has no gold, right, Like the US

778
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 2: could argue getting rid of some of the gold, oh

779
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 2: we have it on loan whatever, But having more gold

780
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 2: almost seems like it could be worse. Like if the

781
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 2: US thinks their currency is going to collapse, they're buying

782
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 2: more gold. Maybe we should so I thought that was

783
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: an interesting caveat, but yeah, we don't really know.

784
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 3: I do. I did see last night breaking news.

785
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 2: I haven't been able to find out if it's true

786
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 2: or not, so I didn't want to talk about it publicly.

787
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 2: But you probably had seen it, talk of China and

788
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: Saudi opening up a gold settled oil window.

789
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw that last night yesterday.

790
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 1: No, I didn't.

791
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 2: So that's that's big news. I haven't been able to

792
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 2: really verify that. I've seen it from from a few

793
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 2: people talking about it. But yeah, potentially having you know,

794
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 2: gold and oil settled by China and Saudi Arabia could

795
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 2: be a pretty big deal.

796
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 3: What about the bitcoin piece?

797
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: Sure, so bitcoin right has been trading as this. I

798
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: guess you'd call it like levered proxy for global liquidity

799
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: for the last let's say three four years, and really,

800
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 1: you know, this is not new or just unique to

801
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 1: just bitcoin. Again, gold trades, although at a at a

802
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 1: different timescale, meaning like like I said, gold will front

803
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 1: run the liquidity waves and the contractions and the sp

804
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 1: FIE hundred and QQQ also are very very close in

805
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: their correlations to global liquidity. If you stack a chart

806
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,720
Speaker 1: of global money supply or global central bank balance sheets

807
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 1: minus obviously the TGA and the reverse repo window, and

808
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 1: then you compare that to the SPY, is like a

809
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 1: zero point eight eight correlation, which in finance, of course

810
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 1: is extremely strong. So it's not just obviously Bitcoin that's

811
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: been sensitive to global liquidity. It's literally every single financial asset,

812
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 1: especially in the US. But Bitcoin has been trading this

813
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 1: kind of like quasi range here and between seventy and

814
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 1: ninety for the last few months, and I think that

815
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: that's indicative of where we are in the global liquidity cycle. Right.

816
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 1: The FED began their taper just a few years ago,

817
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 1: and they've continued their taper, albeit at a slower rate,

818
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 1: and then we've found out, like I said earlier, that

819
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: they've been really just tapering the short bonds, not anything

820
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,800
Speaker 1: past ten years, which means that on net, the liquidity

821
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,879
Speaker 1: drain on the system isn't as bad. And now they're

822
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: venture this area where they're kind of in a limbo, right,

823
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: just like with other cycles, they aren't set on cutting

824
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: the rates to zero yet, and they aren't set on

825
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 1: doing Q yet, but they also aren't telegraphing that they're

826
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: going to hike rates anytime soon or keep them here

827
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: for the next three or four years. There is a

828
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: plan to slowly reduce interest rates. So because of that,

829
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has been also in limbo as well. Because global

830
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 1: liquidity is kind of in this doll drums, Bitcoin's been

831
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,479
Speaker 1: in these doll drums as well, and we probably won't

832
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: see a breakout above one hundred and twenty K until

833
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 1: we see major easing by at least one of the

834
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 1: large global central banks.

835
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned Michael Holley yesterday, I'm on his newsletter.

836
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 2: Nice you mentioned how earlier yesterday on his newsletter he

837
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 2: put out that global equity hit a new record all

838
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 2: time high and it's been on the uptrend, and he

839
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 2: said that he actually changed his forecast.

840
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: He thought that global equity would peek out Q four.

841
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 2: Twenty two, twenty five because it runs on these you know,

842
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 2: five year cycles, he calls it. But now, because of

843
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: what's happening with with the major central banks, he thinks

844
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 2: it's going to go well into twenty twenty six. So

845
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 2: we have seen global equity taking off quite a bit.

846
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 2: Just seems like the US hasn't quite jumped on board

847
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 2: with it.

848
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: Maybe sure, but even that still you know, that still

849
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 1: doesn't take them to count the lack right like we like,

850
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: if you've seen the chart of the global M two

851
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: and bitcoin three months still lags by. Yeah, it's still

852
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 1: lags by quite a few months. And of course we

853
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 1: said bitcoin is you know, sense of for global equidity.

854
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,879
Speaker 1: But there's obviously a lot of caveats, right, there's, uh,

855
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: the the moment to moment reshuffling of debt, there's the

856
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: the refinancing of the treasury bonds. There's the tariff wars, right,

857
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: and what what banks and corporations are going to do

858
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: with regards to you know, their currency reserves in the

859
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: in those cases. So it's not a simple picture, right.

860
00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 1: That's why when people ask me, like, what's the fund

861
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: of mental benchmark global liquidity? What is it? Like, tell

862
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 1: me one number, it's very difficult to caulle It's not

863
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 1: one because there's so many.

864
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not one number one numbers of all.

865
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's also it's like if they change the SLR,

866
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 1: for example, and exempt treasuries from being in the leverage ratio,

867
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 1: that would change how liquidity is flows throughout the system.

868
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: But it wouldn't come up on any screen. You wouldn't

869
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: see the number of Michael Howell's calculation change. That would

870
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 1: just be a regulatory change, right. And so those kinds

871
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 1: of like I guess, esoteric or abstract impacts are are

872
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,720
Speaker 1: hard to quantify and hard to parse out. So and again,

873
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: remember this is a it's a strong correlation, it's not

874
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 1: a perfect correlation. Doesn't mean that tick for tick, where

875
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,919
Speaker 1: global liquidity goes, bitcoin goes that single day. There's still

876
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: obviously a market.

877
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 2: For I like Michael Howell's model. I like the Bitcoin

878
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: layers model. I think Real Vision has a good model.

879
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: Those are the kind of the three that I look at,

880
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 2: and they're all kind of tracking pretty similar. I want

881
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: to wrap this up, and so let's just let me

882
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 2: let me throw you an easy one here. Dig into

883
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: your crystal ball, but polish that thing up and I'm

884
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 2: gonna lay give you a layup here though, But do

885
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 2: you think we end twenty twenty five.

886
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: Higher than we are now in the bitcoin price?

887
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:19,240
Speaker 2: And let's just say markets overall.

888
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 1: Yeahcoin, yes, all three, Yes to all three. And again

889
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 1: the reason why is because the fundamental factors that are

890
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: pushing all three higher. Haven't changed, right, We're still looking

891
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 1: at you know, potentially, like you said, higher global liquidity.

892
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: And then in the coming few years, and especially by

893
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 1: the end of the year, we're still seeing the carry

894
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 1: trade impacts and the dollar recycling impacts of Triffon's dilemma,

895
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: pushing US dollars back into US equity markets. And you know,

896
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 1: debasement is still inevitable given the current US debt levels

897
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,720
Speaker 1: and the fiscal situation. So because of those three reasons,

898
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 1: I don't see any any strong argument as to why

899
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:00,879
Speaker 1: at least you know, or even one of those three

900
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 1: should be lower. I think all three are going to

901
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 1: be higher, substantially so. And I think gold, especially like

902
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: I said, it's telling of more inflation coming in the

903
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: future in twelve to eighteen months, just because it's been

904
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 1: such a good predictor in the past of coming inflation waves.

905
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 3: Yeah. Perfect, all right, I'm going to wrap it up

906
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: with that. Thanks for joining.

907
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 2: You really laid that whole whole sort of global chessboard

908
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 2: out very well, and I agree with you on the

909
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 2: sort of inevitability of where we're at, at least for

910
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 2: the foreseeing future. Here, I want to link down in

911
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 2: the show notes down below. You have your was it

912
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 2: a dollar in game? Your newsletter that you're right, which

913
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: is great yep, so linked that down below, and your

914
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 2: Twitter handle anything else that you want to call out

915
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:43,359
Speaker 2: for everybody to go check out.

916
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: I have a YouTube channel as well. I talk about markets,

917
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 1: talk about gold, bitcoin, commodities, equities obviously, so that's just

918
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 1: at Peruvium Bowl, so you can check that out as well.

919
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:54,720
Speaker 3: Yep, we'll link to that down below.

920
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 1: Thanks for jumping on, Sweet, Thanks for having me