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Speaker 1: The volume. All right, well, good to hoops tonight. You're

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Speaker 1: at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, hopeful of you guys

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Speaker 1: are having a great start to your week. We are

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Speaker 1: continuing our player rankings today with number twenty through number

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Speaker 1: eighteams some really interesting young players in this version of

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Speaker 1: the NBA. We've got a guy who's the number two

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Speaker 1: for a team that just won the championship that we're

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Speaker 1: going to dig into. A couple of number ones on

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Speaker 1: a couple of teams that are very different archetypes of players.

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Speaker 1: We're going to break down the differences in those archetypes.

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Speaker 1: Why I have the guys ranked where I have them.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about the ceilings of these potential

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Speaker 1: guys because I think there's a difference in the ceiling

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Speaker 1: between a couple of these number ones. Lots of interesting

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Speaker 1: stuff to get into today. You guys are the job

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Speaker 1: before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops to Not

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter and underscore JCNLT. You guys, don't

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Speaker 1: mis sho announcements. Don't forget about a podcast feed wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Un Our hoops Tonight Sol's super

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Speaker 1: helpful if you leave a rating and a review on

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Speaker 1: that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media

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Speaker 1: feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. Make sure you

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Speaker 1: guys follow us over there. In the last not least,

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Speaker 1: if you guys want to get mailbag questions in our

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Speaker 1: mail bags over the course of this player ranking series

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Speaker 1: are going to be kind of geared towards the player ranking.

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Speaker 1: So if there's any specific guy that you disagree with

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Speaker 1: where he's ranked too high, too low on the list,

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Speaker 1: off the list, whatever it is, give your elevator pitch,

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Speaker 1: tell us as concisely as possible why you disagree, and

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Speaker 1: we'll get to those in our mail bags on Fridays

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Speaker 1: throughout the remainder of the list. All right, let's talk

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Speaker 1: some basketball. Number twenty Jadub Jalen Williams. Last season in

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Speaker 1: review for Jadub played in sixty nine games, average twenty

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Speaker 1: two points, five rebounds, and five assists, all career highs

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Speaker 1: for Jadub in his third year in the NBA two

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Speaker 1: point three stocks per game. He was tenth in the

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Speaker 1: entire NBA and total steers steals last year, which again

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Speaker 1: is impressive considering he missed thirteen games. His efficiency marks,

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Speaker 1: he's forty eight percent from the field. This is where

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Speaker 1: it gets a little complicated because his shooting actually was down

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Speaker 1: across the board last year, but he was dealing with

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Speaker 1: a wrist that was so messed up it had to

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Speaker 1: be surgically repaired after the NBA Finals, So I'm sure

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Speaker 1: that played a substantial role in his shooting percentages Throughout

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Speaker 1: the year. He was forty eight percent from the field,

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Speaker 1: that was a career low for him, thirty seven percent

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Speaker 1: from three that was down six percent from the previous year,

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Speaker 1: seventy nine percent from the foul line also a career low,

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Speaker 1: fifty four percent in effective field goal percentage career low,

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Speaker 1: and fifty seven percent true shooting, which is a career low.

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Speaker 1: So product is several things. Again, the biggest part of

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Speaker 1: it was simply that he was injured. He had a

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Speaker 1: torn ligament and a shooting wrist, and he played a

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Speaker 1: huge chunk of the season in the entire playoff run

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Speaker 1: with that. As anybody knows who's played any basketball, your

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Speaker 1: wrist is arguably the most important part of your follow

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Speaker 1: through and an injury there would be problematic for anyone.

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Speaker 1: Anybody who's ever out with everybody who's ever played basketball

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Speaker 1: is at least at one point tweaked their shooting wrist.

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Speaker 1: And it is just not fun when you're trying to

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Speaker 1: shoot the basketball. And I'm sure that played a role,

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Speaker 1: but there are other factors. For instance, his usage rate skyrocketed.

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Speaker 1: In his first two years in the NBA, he was

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Speaker 1: about a twenty one percent usage percentage. Last year he

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Speaker 1: was at twenty eight percent, and that obviously, like any

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Speaker 1: massive increase in volume, is likely to come with a

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Speaker 1: drop inefficiency. There are some counterexamples. For instance, the next

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Speaker 1: guy on this list is a guy who upped his

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Speaker 1: usage and upped his efficiency, but it's typically pretty rare.

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Speaker 1: Anytime you experience a large increase in usage, you're typically

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Speaker 1: going to see a little bit of a drop in

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Speaker 1: efficiency because you're gonna have to take some tougher, more

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Speaker 1: difficult shots as more responsibility falls on you. Some specific

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Speaker 1: shots were failing him last year, which kind of hurt

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Speaker 1: his percentages. He went down on layups from fifty nine

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Speaker 1: percent to fifty four percent year over year, and then

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Speaker 1: on floaters, which again is another shot that's going to

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Speaker 1: be impacted by His ris went down from forty two

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Speaker 1: percent to thirty seven percent. But by far the biggest

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Speaker 1: piece was just his jump shot, which again I associate

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Speaker 1: at least partially with the wrist injury at Jalen Williams.

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Speaker 1: Jumper this year was worth zero point one two fewer

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Speaker 1: points per shot than last year, roughly twelve percent. Right,

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Speaker 1: that's a substantial dip year over year in his jump shooting.

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Speaker 1: So Jason, if he got worse year over year and

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Speaker 1: all of these bits of shot making, how did he

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Speaker 1: go from out of the list to into the top twenty. Well,

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Speaker 1: there are three reasons for that. One, his race is

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Speaker 1: now surgically repaired, and I expect him to jump back

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Speaker 1: up as a shot maker next year. Again, the entire

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Speaker 1: structure of this list, and this is the second piece

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Speaker 1: of it, is to project forward to next season, and

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Speaker 1: j dub has improved in every other way as a

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Speaker 1: basketball player, so I expect him to continue to get

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Speaker 1: better coming into this year. It's something I'm factoring in.

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Speaker 1: And then third, he really broke out over the second

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Speaker 1: half of his playoff run, and frankly over the second

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Speaker 1: you know, the second the second two rounds of that

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Speaker 1: four round sequence. He was one of the best players

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Speaker 1: in the league at that point. Over his last thirteen

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Speaker 1: playoff games, stretching from Game seven against Denver to him

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Speaker 1: hoisting up the trophy, he averaged twenty three points, six rebounds,

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Speaker 1: and four assists per game on fifty seven percent true shooting.

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Speaker 1: He had at least twenty four points in six of

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Speaker 1: those thirteen games. He had a thirty four point game

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Speaker 1: against the Wolves in the Conference finals, and he had

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Speaker 1: a forty point game in the NBA Finals. So like

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Speaker 1: he kind of figured a lot of his stuff out

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Speaker 1: over the tail end of that playoff run and was

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Speaker 1: playing arguably higher than where I have him ranked on

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Speaker 1: this list. He conquered a lot of his personal demons

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Speaker 1: at that point, played the best basketball of his career

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Speaker 1: when he needed to to get the trophy. So as

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Speaker 1: I project J. Dub Ford into this coming season, I

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Speaker 1: expect him to average around twenty four six and six.

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Speaker 1: I expect him to be right back over sixty percent

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Speaker 1: true shooting like he was each of the first two

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Speaker 1: seasons of his career, and I expect him to continue

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Speaker 1: to be the all defense level defender that he was

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Speaker 1: this last season twenty four six and six on sixty

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Speaker 1: percent true shooting and all defense. That's a top twenty

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Speaker 1: player in the NBA, and that's what I'm expecting out

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Speaker 1: of Jadub this coming season now looking at his play

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Speaker 1: type data, last year was the first time in Jadub's

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Speaker 1: career where he logged over one thousand self creation possessions

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Speaker 1: meaning pick and rolls, post ups, and ISOs. Previous seasons

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Speaker 1: he was below that, and he was above average in

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Speaker 1: efficiency despite the drop in his shot making. Again, these

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Speaker 1: numbers are despite him being basically unable to make jump shots,

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Speaker 1: less likely to make floaters and layups, which is obviously

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Speaker 1: going to nuke his percentages. He ran one and twenty

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Speaker 1: five pick and rolls, ISOs and post ups including passes,

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Speaker 1: and generated zero point nine to six points per possession,

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Speaker 1: which is slightly above average. Again, considering the wrist injury

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Speaker 1: and the shot making issues, I expect him to be

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Speaker 1: firmly over a point per possession at volume next year.

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Speaker 1: In his shot creation somewhere around one point oh one

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Speaker 1: to one point oh two at about like you know,

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Speaker 1: somewhere about twelve hundred to fourteen hundred play types there, So,

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Speaker 1: like I think Jdub's going to be a very impactful

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Speaker 1: shot creator in this league. We're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: it a little bit in a minute as we compare

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Speaker 1: him to Jaln Brown, who we covered in our video

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Speaker 1: last week on Wednesday. But there's a level of like

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Speaker 1: playmaking and just general floor awareness that Jadub has for

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Speaker 1: a third year player on the wing that is really

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Speaker 1: really rare. In the playoffs last year, Jadub demonstrated a

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Speaker 1: remarkable ability to get all the way to the rim.

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Speaker 1: He attempted shots at the rim seven times per game,

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Speaker 1: which was the tenth highest mark out of the entire

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Speaker 1: playoff field, regardless of how many rounds your team played,

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Speaker 1: so including teams who lost in the first round like

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Speaker 1: the Milwaukee Bucks, the only players who played at least

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Speaker 1: three rounds and attempted more shots at the rim per

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Speaker 1: game than Jadub were Karl, Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards.

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Speaker 1: That's it now Again. That obviously doesn't account for drawing

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Speaker 1: fouls for guys like Shay Gilders Alexander, But even if

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Speaker 1: you just look at drives among all players to play

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Speaker 1: at least ten playoff games last year, Jadubb had the

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Speaker 1: fourth most drives per game, only Shay, Jalen Brunson and

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Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards drove the basketball more. It's a legit problem

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Speaker 1: for defenses. He brings like real downhill power on his drives.

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Speaker 1: He had a lot of success in semi transition in

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Speaker 1: this playoff run where he would kind of like get

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Speaker 1: going up the floor as the defense you know, it's

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Speaker 1: not really a full transition possession, but before the defense

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Speaker 1: is really set, and then he would just take that

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Speaker 1: power dribble and get into the lane and drop his

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Speaker 1: right shoulder and then just power through the guy and

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Speaker 1: get all the way to the rim. He was doing

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Speaker 1: a ton of damage that way. This is a big

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Speaker 1: part of why I have Jalen Williams above a guy

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Speaker 1: like Jalen Brown next year. Jalen Brown is a very

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Speaker 1: similar archetype of player right two way athletic wing. Theoretically,

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Speaker 1: he's far more experienced right but I think JB will

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Speaker 1: be better next year at the three key things that

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Speaker 1: define that small forward position. One. I think JDub is

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Speaker 1: better at getting to the rim. He was better at

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Speaker 1: getting to the rim last year in less space, So

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Speaker 1: as he continues to improve, I expect him And as

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Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna talk. We talked about it with

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Speaker 1: Jalen Brown on Wednesday. Jalen Brown's got a lot of

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Speaker 1: miles on his body. I don't expect him to get

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Speaker 1: more athletic in the coming seasons, so I think Jadub's

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Speaker 1: better at getting to the rim. I think jd will

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Speaker 1: be a better jump shooter next year. Reminder, the previous year,

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Speaker 1: JDub was good for one point one points per pull

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Speaker 1: up jump shot on over three hundred attempts. Jdubb was

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Speaker 1: one of the very best pull up shooters in the

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Speaker 1: entire NBA the year before last. I think JDub will

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Speaker 1: be a better jump shooter than Jalen Brown next season.

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Speaker 1: And lastly, I think Jdubb has already shown himself before

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Speaker 1: this point to be a better passer than Jaylen Brown

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Speaker 1: despite the lack of experience, and I think that gap

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Speaker 1: will continue to grow. He's just a more natural playmaker.

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Speaker 1: I do think Jalen Brown is a slightly better on

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Speaker 1: ball defender. Like if I had to deploy a single

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Speaker 1: guy on the opposing team's best player for a playoff series,

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Speaker 1: I think Jalen Brown is better there, but I think

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Speaker 1: Jadubb is nearly as good and is actually a better

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Speaker 1: overall team defender. I just think j Dubb is a

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Speaker 1: slightly better basketball player right now than Jalen Brown, and

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Speaker 1: I think that gap will continue to grow next year

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Speaker 1: and will continue to grow in the coming year. So

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Speaker 1: that's why I have JDub over Jylen Brown. The keys

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Speaker 1: for Jdub's development Obviously, getting a shot making ability back,

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Speaker 1: a healthy rists, and a good summer in the gym

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Speaker 1: will go a long way to fixing that. He still

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Speaker 1: makes a few poor decisions at the rim. This kind

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Speaker 1: of came to the surface in the series against Dallas

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Speaker 1: two years ago, but continued to be an issue in

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Speaker 1: this playoff run. He shot below fifty percent on layups

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Speaker 1: in this playoff run, similar issues to what shake Gil

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Speaker 1: justs Alexander was dealing with. I thought both of those

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Speaker 1: guys just kind of went through extended stretches of the

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Speaker 1: playoff run where they didn't trust their teammates on some

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Speaker 1: of their kickout reads. And even though jadeb is a

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Speaker 1: more natural playmaker, he still was just kind of getting

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Speaker 1: a little bit of tunnel vision on some of his

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Speaker 1: drives over the last couple of playoff runs. That's something

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Speaker 1: that I think will go a long way, Like layup percentage,

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Speaker 1: is like a combination of obviously your athleticism, but a

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Speaker 1: big part of layup percentage is just decision making, just

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Speaker 1: not taking stupid contested layups because contested layups they have

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Speaker 1: potential to serve a purpose for offensive rebounding if you

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Speaker 1: can engage a rim protector, but they also include the

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Speaker 1: risk of floor balance issues when you come screaming down

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Speaker 1: the lane and miss a layup. They could go the

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Speaker 1: other way and transition, Like, just making a few better

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Speaker 1: decisions on those drives would go a long way to

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Speaker 1: helping his layup efficiency. Again, he can see the reads,

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Speaker 1: he just needs to get into the habit of making them.

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Speaker 1: And then lastly, the consistency element. This is with all

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Speaker 1: young players, like guys like I have. The next two

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Speaker 1: guys on this list are guys that I think that

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Speaker 1: their respective fan bases will be very very like disappointed

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Speaker 1: with where I have them ranked. And one of my

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Speaker 1: big kind of general philosophies with young players is that

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Speaker 1: they're just they have a lot of fat in their games.

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Speaker 1: They have a lot of like mistake making that undercuts

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Speaker 1: their success, and so it's really easy to look at

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Speaker 1: their upside and all their potential and be like, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, this is what they can do. But it's

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Speaker 1: not until they trim the fat and get more consistent

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Speaker 1: on the good stuff that they can actually enter the

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Speaker 1: levels of impact and you know, influence on the NBA

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Speaker 1: landscape that the top ten players in this league have.

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Speaker 1: And when we look at the consistency with jadub like

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Speaker 1: when Jadubbs scored the ball well the thunder just one,

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Speaker 1: they were fourteen and two in the playoffs. When jaydub

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Speaker 1: scored at least eighteen points, they were just two and

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Speaker 1: five in the playoffs when he failed to score eighteen points.

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Speaker 1: So just bringing that level of consistency will go a

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Speaker 1: long way towards helping him get to that next level.

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Speaker 1: But for right now, I was thinking about this a lot,

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Speaker 1: like I think jadav might already be the best small

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Speaker 1: forward in the NBA. I was looking at the rest

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Speaker 1: of the list, and every forward that I have ahead

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Speaker 1: of him is either like a point forward, someone like

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Speaker 1: Kay Cunningham or Luka Doncic, or more of a power forward.

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Speaker 1: Lebron James is a four, Pala Bancaro's of four, Kevin

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Speaker 1: Durants of four, Anthony Davis is a four. The only

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Speaker 1: real like small ford that I have ranked ahead of

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Speaker 1: him right now is Jimmy Butler, And I kind of

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Speaker 1: look at Jimmy Butler as almost more of a four

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Speaker 1: than a three at this point, because I think one

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Speaker 1: of the important characteristics of the three is you need

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Speaker 1: to be able to pick up the opposing ball handlers

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Speaker 1: and guard them on the perimeter at a really high

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Speaker 1: level at large volume. And Jimmy Butler when he was

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Speaker 1: in his prime could do that, But now I view

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Speaker 1: him as more of like a help side, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of like team defender at this phase of his career.

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Speaker 1: But technically, I suppose you could call Jimmy Butler this

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Speaker 1: small forward that I have ranked ahead of ja Dubb.

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Speaker 1: But certainly within the next you know, eighteen months twenty

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Speaker 1: four months, Jadub I think will have a stranglehold as

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Speaker 1: the best like like real three, real small forward in

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Speaker 1: the NBA. And what's interesting about Jada or with Jimmy

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Speaker 1: is like Jimmy essentially represents what I view as the

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Speaker 1: older generation of Jadab. He's the guy that JDub reminds

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Speaker 1: me the most of. And again, the only reason why

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Speaker 1: I have Jimmy ahead of JDub right now is you

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Speaker 1: guys know how much I value veteran experience in the postseason,

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Speaker 1: and I just generally lean on that sort of guy

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Speaker 1: as a super valuable player to have on a team.

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Speaker 1: Like I Like, I know, it sounds crazy because we

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Speaker 1: look look at how much consistency and production you get

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Speaker 1: from these young athletes that are just there every single night.

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Speaker 1: But like I believe if you like swapped Jimmy and

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Speaker 1: JDub for just this season, that the Thunder would actually

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Speaker 1: be a better basketball team just for this season. But

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Speaker 1: in the big picture, I view Jdubb as the best

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Speaker 1: small forward in the NBA as we look forward into

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Speaker 1: the next era of NBA basketball. Currently sits at number

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Speaker 1: resources see dkang dot Co slash Audio palabon Kara. Last

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Speaker 1: season in review, he played just forty six games to

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Speaker 1: do an oblique injury came out the gates screaming, had

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Speaker 1: a fifty point game in the first week of the season,

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Speaker 1: then suffers this really unfortunate oblique injury that cuts a

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Speaker 1: massive swath of games out of his out of his

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Speaker 1: season his averages. He averaged a career high twenty six

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Speaker 1: points per game, career high eight rebounds per game, four

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Speaker 1: point eight assists per game, which was actually down from

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Speaker 1: last year one point four stocks per game, as well

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Speaker 1: as efficiency. Shot forty five percent from the field. He

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Speaker 1: actually shot fifty one percent on twos, which was a

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Speaker 1: career high for him, and thirty two percent from three,

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Speaker 1: which was slightly down year over year, but there was

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Speaker 1: an increase in volume. He was also at seventy three

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Speaker 1: percent from the line on a career high eight and

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Speaker 1: a half attempts per game, So this all amounted to

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Speaker 1: Paolo actually the substantially increasing his scoring volume substantially increasing

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Speaker 1: his usage rate while also increasing his efficiency, which is

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Speaker 1: a very rare feat in the NBA. He finished the

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Speaker 1: year over fifty five percent in true shooting percentage, which

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Speaker 1: was a career high. And again, if you consider that

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Speaker 1: Paalo Boncaro took the third most mid range jump shots

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Speaker 1: per game out of any player in the NBA last

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Speaker 1: year and shot just forty two percent on him, like

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Speaker 1: he was one of the worst volume mid range jump

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Speaker 1: shooters in the NBA, and he still went up in

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Speaker 1: efficiency and was over fifty five percent in true shooting.

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Speaker 1: That's actually pretty impressive, at least in terms of his

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Speaker 1: of like a of an example or a description of

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Speaker 1: his potential in the NBA, Like, holy shit, he's got

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Speaker 1: all this fat in his game that he needs to

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Speaker 1: trim and he's still like increasing in terms of efficiency

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Speaker 1: because of all of his natural ability that he brings

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Speaker 1: to the table. We're definitely gonna have a bigger conversation

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Speaker 1: about Palo in his mid range jump shooting here in

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Speaker 1: a few minutes, because it is an interesting debate and

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00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,159
Speaker 1: it's already been. Something that's been discussed this offseason is

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Speaker 1: his videos of his workouts have kind of gone viral.

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Speaker 1: So let's look into some play type data. Now. Before

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Speaker 1: we go into any specific play types, it is important

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Speaker 1: for us to acknowledge a basic reality about Orlando's roster.

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Speaker 1: Last year. They were the very worst jump shooting team

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Speaker 1: in the league by a mile. They got just zero

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Speaker 1: point ninety three points per jump shot as a team,

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Speaker 1: that was four point three points per one hundred jump

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Speaker 1: shots worse than the twenty ninth ranked team. The gap

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Speaker 1: between Orlando at thirty and number twenty nine was the

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Speaker 1: same as the gap between number twenty nine and number

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Speaker 1: twenty one on that list, So they were far and

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Speaker 1: away the worst jump shooting team in the league. They

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Speaker 1: were the only team in the entire NBA to get

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Speaker 1: less than one point per catch and shoot jump shot.

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Speaker 1: They were the worst off the dribble jump shooting team

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Speaker 1: in the NBA. Even if you added the ability to

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Speaker 1: drive closeouts, that only slid them up to twenty eighth

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Speaker 1: in spot up efficiency. They were also twenty eighth in

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00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,439
Speaker 1: rollman efficiency. They only shot they shot below thirty percent

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Speaker 1: on pick and pop threes or ghost screen threes with

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Speaker 1: their guards. They were even twenty ninth in the league

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Speaker 1: on two point shots out of rollman possession. So in

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Speaker 1: other words, this team was far and away the worst

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Speaker 1: play finishing team in the NBA. The entire purpose of

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Speaker 1: running action or having a star that can break down

390
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 1: the defense is to generate clean looks for people either

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00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 1: as cutters, rollers or in spot up situations, and they

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Speaker 1: could not finish in those situations, and so that obviously

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00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,360
Speaker 1: is going to have an effect on their efficiency out

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Speaker 1: of those types of actions. Even the one on one shots,

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Speaker 1: the shots that Palo and Franz take when they're dribbling

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Speaker 1: the basketball, those are more difficult because of all the

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00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 1: increased help that they have to face because guys can't

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Speaker 1: finish plays. So it's just an important context inside these

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Speaker 1: this data that we're about to look at. Even above

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Speaker 1: and beyond the issues with play finishing, I also thought

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Speaker 1: or had one of the over the last couple of years,

402
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 1: one of the least inventive offenses in the NBA. Very

403
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 1: little in the way of ball and player movement, a

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00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 1: lot of Franz and Polo just pounding the ball out

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Speaker 1: above the break and taking just simple ghost screens from

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00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 1: guards or simple ball screens from Wendell Carter Junior or

407
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 1: Googa to Toadze just a really basic, like unrefined offensive approach.

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Speaker 1: And here's the thing, like, when you have guys that

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Speaker 1: are supreme offensive initiators, you know, over the years, when

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Speaker 1: we look at guys that played in lower ball and

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00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 1: player movement offenses, like you know, Lebron James at the

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00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 1: peak of his powers or Luka Doncics recently, in those

413
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 1: sorts of situations, they're usually like one, a super high

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Speaker 1: level supreme ball handler like you know, Lebron arguably the

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Speaker 1: greatest player of all time, Luka Doncic one of the

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00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: top you know, four or five offensive engines of all time.

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00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 1: Those guys are going to make difficult basketball look easy.

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Speaker 1: In addition to that, they were typically surrounded by really smart,

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00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 1: high IQ veteran basketball players that could shoot, and that

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Speaker 1: goes a long way towards making that a viable way

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00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 1: to play basketball. But when you've got unrefined young stars

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Speaker 1: with a complete and total lack of refined offensive skill

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Speaker 1: off the ball, that's just a really dumb way to play.

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Speaker 1: For lack of a better word, there needs to be

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00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 1: Jamal Mooley needs to do a better job of adding

426
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 1: complication to that offense to make this easier to set

427
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: them up with more advantages, because right now it's just

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00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 1: letting Palo and Franz pound the ball out front and

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00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: taking a single screen late in the clock. That's just

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Speaker 1: making life harder on them than it needs to be.

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00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 1: Adding more complications, more ball in player movement will create

432
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: higher quality advantages. It will get some of their athletes

433
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: going downhill against a defense in motion instead of against

434
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: the defense that's loaded up. It's something that they've got

435
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: to change. But on that note, Poalo's play type data

436
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 1: wasn't great. Zero point nine to five points per possession

437
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: including passes on four hundred and sixty nine pick and rolls.

438
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 1: That's slightly below average. Zero point nine to seven points

439
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 1: per possession including passes on three hundred and eighteen ISOs

440
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 1: very slightly above average. Out of the twenty three players

441
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: in the NBA to run at least two hundred and

442
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 1: fifty ISOs. Last year, Pallow's zero point ninety seven points

443
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: per possession including passes ranked fourteenth, so just a little

444
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: below the middle of the pack. There zero point nine

445
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: to eight points per possession including passes one hundred and

446
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: sixty one post ups very below average and a big

447
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 1: part of that is, like Palo just doesn't take hook shots.

448
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: He takes turnaround fade aways, which is just a really

449
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: difficult way to play out of the post unless you're

450
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: Kobe or mj and or Kawhi Leonard and you're shooting

451
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: over fifty one percent or fifty percent on you know,

452
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: fade away jump shots over both shoulders, which Pallo does

453
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 1: not do. So there a lot of that is, like

454
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 1: I'd love to see Palo just add a little bit

455
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: more of a power kind of like hook shot game.

456
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: He shoots really well on floaters, which we're gonna get

457
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: to in a minute. So like I actually do think

458
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: he has the short range touch to eventually become a

459
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 1: guy that can lean on that hook shot. We're about

460
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: to talk about Kid Cunningham in a little bit. Kay

461
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 1: Cunningham is a player who's become a very impactful post

462
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: up player because he has a little baby hook over

463
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 1: his left shoulder that he hits well over fifty percent

464
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: of the time. That is a shot that Paolo needs

465
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 1: to add to his game that will make him a

466
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: more efficient post up player. So there are a lot

467
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: of different ways for Orlando to become more efficient with

468
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 1: Paalo having the ball in his hands. One is for

469
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: them to run more sophisticated offense, which we talked about earlier. Again,

470
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: all that is just complications getting up the ball, getting

471
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: the ball up the floor quickly, trying to play more

472
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 1: in transition when you get into the half court, getting

473
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: into multiple actions, so three man action at the beginning

474
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: of possessions, getting the ball flowing side to side, more

475
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: ball in player movement to prevent some of the stagnation

476
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 1: that they deal with. Two is for the play finishing

477
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: to improve. Like guys have to hit catch shot jump

478
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: shots when they're open. Guys have to be able to

479
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: drive closeouts. Guys have to be able to score when

480
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 1: they catch on the roll. Like we're going to talk

481
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: about Polo's playmaking here in a little bit, and you know,

482
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: if he's gonna why in the hell would Paalo trust

483
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: his teammates when they can't make shots, you know what

484
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: I mean? And that's not to say that he shouldn't

485
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 1: be learning how to do that anyway. The point is

486
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 1: is like, as a front office, if you want to

487
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: incentivize Palo's development as a playmaker, if you want to

488
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: accelerate Palo's development as a playmaker. You need to have

489
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: him feel like he's being rewarded for the decisions he's

490
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: making and when he's passing too far and away the

491
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: worst jump shooters in the NBA, that's going to have

492
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: an impact on the just trust that he has in

493
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: making the right play. That's something that's going to develop.

494
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: You've got to improve in your play finishing, and then three,

495
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: their ball handlers have to become more efficient as scores.

496
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 1: And again we're not going to talk about frauds today

497
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: because he's not on the list we're talking. We're zooming

498
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: in on Polo. Palo's shot making is generally okay. It's

499
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent at the rim. That's not where he

500
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: should be for an athlete like himself, Like I'd like

501
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 1: to see Palo closer to sixty five percent at the rim.

502
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: But again, we'd be foolish to not can consider the

503
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: awful team wide jump shooting as a factor in his

504
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: ability to get all the way to the paint. Right,

505
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 1: he was forty nine percent on floaters, which is solid.

506
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: Doesn't take a ton of them, but he can knock

507
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: down floaters. That's a piece of that short range shot making,

508
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: which is a big part of why I want to

509
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: see him build out that left shoulder hook. Thirty eight

510
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: percent on unguarded catch and shoot threes. Not amazing, but

511
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,239
Speaker 1: that's one point one five points per shot. That's an

512
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: efficient shot for him, So he has some efficient bits

513
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: of shot making in his game. The problem is is

514
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 1: he's one of the least efficient pull up jump shooters

515
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 1: in the league. There were forty two players in the

516
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 1: NBA last year to take at least three hundred pull

517
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: up jump shots. Pallow zero point nine points per shot,

518
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: ranked thirty eighth out of those forty two players. There's

519
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 1: a couple of specific details I want to get into, though,

520
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 1: because it's more complicated than just looking at the big

521
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,719
Speaker 1: picture percentages. First of all, I'd like to see him

522
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 1: just cut down a little bit on his volume. Despite

523
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: being one of the worst pull up jump shooters in

524
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: the sport, he took the sixth most to pull up

525
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 1: jump shots per game out of anybody on that forty

526
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: two player list. Let's take Lebron James for example. Lebron

527
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: was also near the bottom of that list for pull

528
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: up jump shot efficiency. But Lebron knows that he's not

529
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: a great pull up jump shooter. So he takes fewer

530
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: of them. He takes about half as many as Polo.

531
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: And so despite Lebron being a poor pull up jump

532
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 1: shooter last year, he cut his volume substantially down and

533
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 1: he was super efficient at the rim. So Lebron was

534
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: still over sixty percent true shooting last year, substantially ahead

535
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: of where Palo was. That's a simple thing trimming the fat,

536
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 1: cutting down on some of that volume. That will help

537
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: Paalo in his overall efficiency. So if Paallo's going to

538
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 1: take fewer pull up jumpers per game, where should he

539
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 1: cut out these pull up jump shots? So we want

540
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 1: to look at where on the floor he's taken them

541
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: and when he's taking them on the shot clock. First

542
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 1: of all, where there are short twos, long twos, and

543
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 1: pull up threes. Right, Pallo is thirty percent on pull

544
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: up threes last year. That's zero point nine per points

545
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: per shot. That's not good. But that is the area

546
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 1: where if you just tweak it up a couple percentage points,

547
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 1: it suddenly becomes a good shot. If he can get

548
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: from thirty percent to thirty four percent, suddenly that's a

549
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 1: plenty fine efficient half court jump shot for his team. So,

550
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 1: like a lot of skill development work geared towards the

551
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: pull up three will go a long way towards allowing

552
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: Palo to become more efficient. I also just think for

553
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 1: a guy his size, he's gonna get a lot of

554
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 1: clean looks on pull up three. So like, if he

555
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: can get to the point where that's a shot that

556
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: he knocks down just a touch more reliably, that could

557
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: be something that's more efficient for him. He was thirty

558
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 1: one percent on long twos outside of seventeen feet, zero

559
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: point six to two points per shot. That's really bad.

560
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: And the problem was is he takes them at volume.

561
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: About a third of his pull up twos are outside

562
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: of seventeen feet. Those are shots that he basically needs

563
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 1: to cut out entirely unless he's in like, you know,

564
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: two three seconds on the shot, like I gotta put

565
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: something up. He was fifty one point four percent on

566
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: short twos inside of seventeen feet. It's one point zero

567
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: three points possession. That's pretty good. He's actually one of

568
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: the best players in the league at that shot. Out

569
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: of the thirty six players to take at least one

570
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: hundred short twos, he ranked eighth out of those thirty

571
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: six players, So he's actually a very good short range

572
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: pull up shooter. So the easy answer is he just

573
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 1: needs to tick up his three point shooting off the

574
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: jibble a little bit for it to become a more

575
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: efficient shot, and then he needs to cut out the

576
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: long twos entirely. Again, about a third of his pull

577
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: up twos are outside of seventeen feet. That just nukes

578
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: his efficiency. He's gotta cut those out. Like so, when

579
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 1: we talk about the shot clock piece of it, Paolo

580
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: took four point seven mid range jump shots per game.

581
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: Only one point two of those four point seven in

582
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: mid range jump shots, so you know, roughly a fourth.

583
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,719
Speaker 1: Only one point two of them took place in the

584
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: final seven seconds of the shot clock. So seventy five

585
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: percent of the twos that he's taking off the dribble

586
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: are in a phase of the shot clock where there's

587
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: plenty of time left to try to get something better.

588
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: So everything for Palo is about order of operations. When

589
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: he gets a favorable matchup and gets close to the rim,

590
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 1: his pull up twos are fine. He's good at those

591
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: short jump shots, but if there's time on the clock,

592
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 1: he needs to work it around and look for better

593
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: shots and only take those tougher twos when he's up

594
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: against the shot clock, and then as a skill development

595
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: piece to help save energy during the course of an

596
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: eighty two game season. If he could build out that

597
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: pull up three point shot to just a touch more reliable,

598
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: that could be something that is a reliable shot of

599
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: more efficient shot for him to look at. But again,

600
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: despite the poor spacing and the poor shot selection, he

601
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: still raised. His efficiency was still over fifty five per

602
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: century shooting, which isn't terrible. This is what has always

603
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: had me so excited about Palo Bonkarra. Despite the poor spacing,

604
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: Plow still shot at the rim seven times per game

605
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: last year and got to the foul line a ton.

606
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: Truly big and strong ball handlers like that are just

607
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: so hard to deal with for a defense. His seven

608
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: attempts per game at the rim was top twenty in

609
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: the NBA this year. Again, despite the awful spacing and

610
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: that big size, it just brings so much utility as

611
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: a rebounder and as a defender. He's not particularly great

612
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: and any of that stuff. He's not a great reboundary,

613
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: he's not a great defensive player, but he's just so

614
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: gifted with his size and strength that he just adds

615
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: to the identity of the team. It feels like he's

616
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: adding to it, not taking away. Everything for Palo right

617
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: now is about refining. We talked about refining the shot selection.

618
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 1: It's a us about the playmaking. And again this is

619
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: on the front office. If you want Palo to see

620
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: the best benefits of trusting his teammates, if you want

621
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 1: him to get addicted to making the right play, you

622
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: need to put players around him that will pay those

623
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: plays off with makes so that the magic can win

624
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: those games and so that Palo can start to develop

625
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: a more well rounded approach to offense. He was over

626
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 1: thirty three percent in usage rate last year and was

627
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: below five assists per game. That's not just on Pallo,

628
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 1: that's also in the team construct here. I'm hoping Desmond

629
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 1: Bain entering the equation will actually help a lot with this,

630
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: creating more openings, creating a two man game partner that

631
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 1: Pallo will trust every single time down the floor that

632
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 1: he can feed the ball to consistently. I think Palo

633
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: is one of the most naturally gifted young players in

634
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: the league, not even twenty three years old, yet barely

635
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: scratching the surface of what he's capable of being, and

636
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: I already have him as the nineteenth best player in

637
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: the NBA. All right, last guy for today, Kate Cunningham.

638
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 1: Last season interview. He played seventy games, average twenty six

639
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: point six rebounds and nine assists, one point eight stocks,

640
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: a career high in points and assists for Kid, forty

641
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: seven percent from the field, career high, thirty six percent

642
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: from three career high, eighty five percent from the line

643
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 1: on five point three attempts, which was a career high,

644
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: fifty two percent effective field goal percentage which was a

645
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: career high, and fifty seven percent in true shooting, which

646
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 1: was a career high. He made the All NBA Team

647
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: for the first time. He made the All Star Team

648
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: for the first time, finished seventh in MVP voting, which

649
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: was his first time at receiving MVP votes. So a

650
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: resounding step forward for Caid Cunningham as one of the

651
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: next great offensive engines in the NBA. I want to

652
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about just kind of where I

653
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: have these guys ranked for a minute before we get

654
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: into some of the specifics with Kid, so on a

655
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: foundational level, if you're wondering why I have a guy

656
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: like Cad over a guy like Paalo, And again this

657
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: is projecting forward. Obviously Cad had a better season, but

658
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: if we're looking at, you know, healthy Paalo going into

659
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 1: next season, healthy Caid, why do I project KD to

660
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: be a better player. A lot of this has to

661
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 1: do just simply with my personal view of the game

662
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: of basketball, which is I just value advantage creation and

663
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: offensive engines, guys that just are supremely gifted at setting

664
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: up their teammates with so many advantages that they just

665
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: have a super high offensive floor. It's a concept we've

666
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: talked endlessly about over the course of the last few months,

667
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,280
Speaker 1: especially with guys like Tyrese Halibert making a deep playoff

668
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 1: run right. I generally value Cade's archetype more than I

669
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,359
Speaker 1: value Palo Boncaro's archetype. That's a big part of why

670
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: I have him ahead. It's also probably worth mentioning here.

671
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: I know that there will be Pistons fans especially, and

672
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 1: probably some Magic fans as well, who are pissed off

673
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 1: that I have these guys as low as I do

674
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 1: this a lot. This generally has a lot to do

675
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 1: with my feelings about young basketball players. Cad and Palo

676
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: both have worlds of potential and they're already showing so

677
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 1: much of their upside, But both players have so much

678
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: fat in their games right now. We talked about Pallow

679
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: his shot selection and like his trust in his teammates.

680
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: Right with Caid, his jump shot fell apart in the postseason,

681
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: especially from three point land. The turnovers were a big issue.

682
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: He had at least six turnovers and three of the

683
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: six first round games against the Knicks. Young players are

684
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: extremely mistake prone and that undercuts so much of their upside.

685
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: So in other words, I'm a really big believer in

686
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: both Caid and Palo, even as different archetypes for different reasons,

687
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: but I think both of them are a few years

688
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 1: away from like really being impactful in the NBA landscape,

689
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: because it just has to do with my big picture

690
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: feelings about young players in the NBA. Let's look at

691
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: Kaid's play type data pick and roll. Caid was an

692
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: excellent pick and roll player last year fifteen hundred and

693
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 1: sixty six pick and rolls including passes one point zero

694
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 1: four points per possession, which is good basically middle of

695
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: the pack for our high volume list for the players

696
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: who ran over a thousand of them. He's just your

697
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: textbook methodical pick and roll player. It brings the combination

698
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: of size and strength and ball handling that can consistently

699
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,839
Speaker 1: get players out of position, like on his hip, on

700
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 1: his backside right, and then from there he just methodically

701
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,439
Speaker 1: makes reads as he's working down the lane. It's Luke

702
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: a light, right. It's that ability to just get the

703
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: defender in jail, work his way through the lane and

704
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 1: basically wait for the defense to react. Oh, the screen

705
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 1: defender stepped up. I'm gonna drop it off to Jalen

706
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: Duran for a dunk, or throw a lot to Jalen

707
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: Durn for a dunk. Oh, they're picking me up at

708
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 1: the level, and they're bringing a low man over for Duran.

709
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: I'm making the swing pass over to the weak side

710
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 1: corner to beat the guy who's tagging the roller. These

711
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 1: basic sequences of reeds. He's even above and beyond pick

712
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,720
Speaker 1: and roll play. He's just an excellent transition passer, constantly

713
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: hunting shooters. He was doing it with Tim Hardaway Junior

714
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 1: and Malik Beasley last year. He'll be doing it with

715
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:49,760
Speaker 1: Duncan Robinson this year. Right, It's that relentless, just advantage hunting.

716
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 1: Every single time a help defender really sinks in off

717
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 1: of a guy, he's going to make that read. And

718
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: just you want to know why as a young ball handler, again,

719
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 1: a super young ball handler, he's already cracking the high

720
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: volume list as one of the more efficient ball handlers

721
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: in the league, like he was just as efficient as

722
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: a pick and roll player as an experienced veteran like

723
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: James Harden was last year. It all comes down to

724
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 1: the fact that when you consistently set up NBA level

725
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: talent with advantages with guys sprinting at them, when you

726
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 1: do that constantly at high volume throughout basketball games, You're

727
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 1: just gonna score a lot of points. It's going to

728
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: naturally lead to efficient offense. It's why I'm such a

729
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 1: big believer in that archetype. He's that big ball handler

730
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: that relentlessly makes all the reads that is going to

731
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: give you such a high offensive floor in the modern

732
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: NBA shot making mix bag. For Kate, he was only

733
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: thirty two percent on pull up threes in the regular season.

734
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: He was abysmal on them in the playoffs. So that's

735
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: definitely going to need to be a big area of

736
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: improve it for him. He's actually a very gifted short

737
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 1: range shot maker, which we're going to talk about in

738
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: a minute, but the long range shot making is super

739
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: inconsistent for him right now. He's gonna have to figure

740
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 1: that out. He was really good about indexing his mid

741
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 1: range pull ups towards the shorter ones closer to the basket.

742
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: We talked about how with Paollo the that like legitimately

743
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 1: a third of his twos were outside of seventeen feet,

744
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: four kaid it's a much higher percentage. It's like closer

745
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 1: to eighty percent of his two's are inside of seventeen feet.

746
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: He just takes a lot more of these floaters, hooks,

747
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: short range jump shots, not too many of the long twos,

748
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 1: which helps his efficiency a lot. He took two hundred

749
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,760
Speaker 1: and twenty one pull up twos inside of seventeen feet

750
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 1: and made fifty one percent of them. That's a really

751
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: strong number. He even kept that up at about forty

752
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 1: six percent in the postseason, which isn't terrible considering how

753
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 1: poorly he shot on his other jump shots. He's also

754
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: fifty one point four percent on floaters and hooks. He's

755
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: just a very good short range shot maker, which works

756
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 1: really well because of his ability to shield defenders off

757
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: and to get close to the rim where he can

758
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: be so deadly with that shot making. Again, if you

759
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 1: combine that with him blossoming into one of the best

760
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 1: passers in the NBA, he's just a very very good

761
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:14,760
Speaker 1: pick and roll player, a bonafide offensive engine, a foundational,

762
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: foundational offensive engine that just makes life easier in the

763
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 1: modern NBA. He was a very good post up player

764
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: as well. We were talking about this with Paalo earlier,

765
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 1: the big difference between Caid and Palo and why Palo

766
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: y Palo was an inefficient post up player, and why

767
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 1: Cade was getting one point one six points per possession

768
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty one possessions including passes, which is

769
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 1: literally one of the best post up players in the league.

770
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: Out of the twenty four players to run at least

771
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty post ups, Kid ranked sixth inefficiency.

772
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: The reason why is he built out a super reliable

773
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: baby hook shot over his left shoulder fifty five percent

774
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 1: on them, so he can make very simple reads against

775
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 1: smaller defenders. Clear the side, get to that left block,

776
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 1: back them down, work towards the middle the defense doesn't come.

777
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 1: I'm just going right over that left shoulder with the hook.

778
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 1: The defense reacts, I'm spraying out to the right shooter

779
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 1: or the cutter along the baseline. Every single time. It

780
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: made him a hyper reliable post up player. Again, he

781
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: was nineteen points per one hundred post ups more efficient

782
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 1: than Pala Boncaro because of that simple dynamic of his

783
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: ability to trust his teammates to make the spray outs

784
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 1: while also hitting the hooks. And again we're gonna continue

785
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: to factor in the fact that Detroit had better shooting

786
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: than Orlando did. But Detroit was roughly a middle of

787
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 1: the pack jump shooting team. It wasn't like they were

788
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: an elite jump shooting team, and there was a substantial

789
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: increase in CAD's efficiency in that specific spot on the floor. Again,

790
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: he's cut from the same cloth as Lukadanciic, just like

791
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 1: a slow, methodical offensive engine that brings lots of size

792
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: and strength to that position. But there are three main

793
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 1: areas where Kid needs to improve. We mentioned the turnovers earlier.

794
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: He just needs to clean up those mistakes. They were

795
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: particularly a problem for him in the postseason. Secondly, he

796
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: needs to improve his distance jump shooting. Specifically his pull

797
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,919
Speaker 1: up three point shooting. He's very good off the catch.

798
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 1: He's thirty nine percent one point one to six points

799
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: per shot, which is good. Even against contests, he's actually

800
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 1: a little bit better. He's forty one percent on guarded

801
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 1: catch and shoot jump shot, so the touch is there.

802
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 1: On the long range shooting, he just seems to refine

803
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 1: his fluidity connecting dribble combinations and footwork to the end

804
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 1: of what he uses as his catch and shoot shot.

805
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 1: If he can refine all of that fluidity, he will

806
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 1: start knocking those down, and then lastly it's his rim finishing,

807
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 1: particularly layups. On the one hand, Kate attempted five hundred

808
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: and twenty four layups last year. That was the second

809
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 1: most in the entire NBA. Only Jannis and Tanacumbo attempted

810
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: more layups than Kay Cunningham did last year, but shot

811
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: just fifty percent on them, which is legitimately awful. Out

812
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: of the thirty eight players in the NBA who attempted

813
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: at least three hund layups last year, he ranked thirty

814
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: sixth an efficiency on layups. Similarly to what we were

815
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: talking about with JDub A lot of that is just

816
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: decision making, just forcing the issue when he gets to

817
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 1: the rim, figuring out that there's a little bit better

818
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: balance in decision making at the rim to limit the

819
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 1: bad layups that are gonna Nucas percentage. Again, we talked

820
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: about this earlier, but to me, layup percentage is mostly

821
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,399
Speaker 1: about there's a size in athleticism piece, but a lot

822
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 1: of layup percentage just comes down to decision making just

823
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: when you take a layup, because again, the contested layup

824
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: is just as bad as a tough pull up two

825
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: point shot. It's the same type of problematic low percentage

826
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 1: of low efficiency shot because it's only worth two points, right.

827
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: But uncontested layups are easier layups. They tend to go

828
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 1: in seventy eighty percent of the time. Those are the

829
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: ones that are gonna increase your efficiency substantially. The Luca

830
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: comparison is interesting to me because I don't actually think

831
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 1: Caid will ever reach the level that Luca has reached

832
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,240
Speaker 1: on offense, although I do think he can get close.

833
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: I just don't think he has quite the natural ability

834
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 1: that Luca has. He kind of just reminds me of

835
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 1: a poor man's version of him. But Caid is a

836
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 1: substantially more capable defender. I've actually seen Cad on more

837
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: than one occasion do a really good job in some

838
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 1: on ball matchups. That was a big thing that stood

839
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 1: out to me in my prep for the Pistons Knicks

840
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: series was the job that Kad Cunningham did in the

841
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 1: regular season guarding Jalen Brunson. He's got really good instincts.

842
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 1: He's good at being physical with his hands without picking

843
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 1: up too many fouls. There's a version of this story

844
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 1: where Caid becomes a legitimate two way superstar. I think

845
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: Kid has real potential to enter into the top tier

846
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 1: of superstars in this league. I think he's a few

847
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: years away from getting there, but I think that potential

848
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: is really there. Let's take a guy like Palo, for instance.

849
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: Because Polo is neither a high level jump shooter or

850
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: a high level playmaker or an other worldly defender. I

851
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 1: think that kind of caps pallow out at being a

852
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: second tier star, like I think he can get into

853
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: the backside of the top ten. I think Paalo one

854
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: day could be a six, seventh, eighth best player in

855
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 1: the NBA. But when we're talking about the real top tier,

856
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: the tier that Jannis and Shay and Luca and Jokic occupy.

857
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm not sure that Caid can, or excuse me,

858
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that Palo can ever get to that

859
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 1: point because he just doesn't have that one supreme gift

860
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: that will drive him to true unguardability, so to speak.

861
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: Caid's combination of being like a legitimate, bonafide offensive engine,

862
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: like one of the guys that's going to be a

863
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: top tier offensive engine in this league, while also having

864
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 1: legitimate two way potential, I think that actually makes him

865
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: one of these special franchise cornerstones, one of the guys

866
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 1: that only comes around a few times each decade. Right now,

867
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: I have him at eighteenth on this list, but I

868
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: do believe that Caid has the potential to get up

869
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 1: into that top five at some point in the next

870
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 1: five years. All Right, guys, that's all I have for

871
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: today is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting

872
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 1: me and supporting the show. We'll be back on Wednesday

873
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 1: with more players than our player rankings. I'll see you

874
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 1: guys then.