WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 2nd, 2026

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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<v Speaker 2>from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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<v Speaker 2>live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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<v Speaker 2>am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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<v Speaker 2>anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Tracking a whole host

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<v Speaker 2>of news stories this morning, of course, with one central

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<v Speaker 2>focus developments in the Middle East. This this morning, just

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<v Speaker 2>dropping you've all seen reports I'm sure about three down jets,

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<v Speaker 2>three down to US jets over Qwa. The latest from

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<v Speaker 2>the United States. They say those three jets were down

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<v Speaker 2>due to apparent friendly fire over Qa or six air

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<v Speaker 2>crew have ejected safely, the jets mistakenly shot down by

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<v Speaker 2>qwaity air defenses. Those headlines just crossing months ago. To

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<v Speaker 2>build on this conversation a much more, I'm place to

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<v Speaker 2>say the Norman Rule, the former senior US intelligence official

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<v Speaker 2>and senior advisor at CSIS joins us now for more normal,

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<v Speaker 2>so much to cut through, Let's start with this. Who

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<v Speaker 2>is in command of the IGC as things stand?

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<v Speaker 3>The commander of the IRGC is an individual named Ahmed Vihidi.

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<v Speaker 3>He's highly experienced, born in nineteen fifty eight. He joined

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<v Speaker 3>the IRGC in nineteen seventy nine. He was the predecessor

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<v Speaker 3>of cost Some soul Mine in the Koods Force and

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<v Speaker 3>was extensively involved in terrorism and has indeed been red

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<v Speaker 3>listed for his involvement in the ammy of bombing in Argentina.

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<v Speaker 1>Many years ago. He is an individual with a very

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<v Speaker 1>dark history.

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<v Speaker 3>So we have an individual who was cut from the

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<v Speaker 3>same playbook as his predecessors in the IRGC.

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<v Speaker 4>Norman given the layers of concentric power in Iran in

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<v Speaker 4>the IRGC and a new leader already stepping in, what

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<v Speaker 4>does it actually look like and what does it take

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<v Speaker 4>to have true regime change in our well?

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<v Speaker 3>At present we have the regime has already been changed.

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<v Speaker 3>Their strategic power has been severely diminished. We've had two

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<v Speaker 3>thousand air strikes by the United States and Israel. Yesterday,

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<v Speaker 3>the IRGCY headquarters is rubble and beginning yesterday and today,

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<v Speaker 3>the United States is conducting a massive tectonic strikes on

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's missile, nuclear and other subterranean holdings. So Iran's strategic

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<v Speaker 3>capacity is being reduced. Its missile launchers are being whittled away.

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<v Speaker 3>That doesn't mean it won't have capacity to fire, but

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's strategic resources are being already transformed.

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<v Speaker 1>The Supreme leader is dead.

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<v Speaker 3>His successor is being selected according to the standard process.

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<v Speaker 1>So the regime has changed.

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<v Speaker 3>It's still the same type of administration and the besieged

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<v Speaker 3>their militias on the street, armed, keeping the protesters down

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<v Speaker 3>as before. We have a similar type of regime, but

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<v Speaker 3>it is severely weakened.

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<v Speaker 4>What do you then understand about what this president of

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<v Speaker 4>the United States aims are in Iran? Than Norman and

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<v Speaker 4>his initial address, he gave a variety of reasons of

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<v Speaker 4>why the US was attacking Iran, it became clear that

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<v Speaker 4>he wanted that regime shift. What is the president's goal

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<v Speaker 4>at this moment? What does that tell you about how

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<v Speaker 4>long a conflict may last?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, to be clear, I think the goals are consistent

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<v Speaker 3>to reduce to end Iran's capacity to rebuild a nuclear

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<v Speaker 3>enterprise and the military operations that are being conducted now

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<v Speaker 3>will achieve that, although Iran could make a decision to

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<v Speaker 3>rebuild that at some point in the future absent of

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<v Speaker 3>political decision to second to end the missile threat at present,

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<v Speaker 3>although Iran could rebuild that in the future unless it

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<v Speaker 3>was a political change. And finally, to severely degrade Iran's

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<v Speaker 3>regional adventurism in goods force and we destroyed the i

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<v Speaker 3>ERGC headquarters and are conducting strikes against a revolutionary guard capacity.

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<v Speaker 3>So again, the president is conducting military operations to achieve

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<v Speaker 3>all of those goals. The challenge becomes he's got to

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<v Speaker 3>now have an Iranian government that in order to survive

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<v Speaker 3>and sustain the regime, they've got to say we will

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<v Speaker 3>agree to not rebuild that in order to survive, have

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<v Speaker 3>a normal relationship with our neighbors, and sanctions relief. That

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<v Speaker 3>government has not yet agreed to do this. But again

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<v Speaker 3>I must say, we're one day into a conflict, so

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<v Speaker 3>these are still early days.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's go through what we know and what we've

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<v Speaker 2>seen so far. I think a notable feature for many

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<v Speaker 2>over the weekend with account of strikes across the Gulf.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you see those strikes as maybe risking bringing others

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<v Speaker 2>into this war or producing a different response, getting gunners

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<v Speaker 2>in the golf to push back against the interactions they've

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<v Speaker 2>seen so far.

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<v Speaker 3>The response was entirely expected. Iran's goals would have been

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<v Speaker 3>as following. First, they're going to try to achieve as

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<v Speaker 3>much losses in the United States to promote a political

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<v Speaker 3>debate within the United States against the press.

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<v Speaker 1>And second, they're.

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<v Speaker 3>Going to want to punish or attack golf partners in

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<v Speaker 3>other countries to cause them to turn to the president

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<v Speaker 3>and say and the conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, what we've seen.

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<v Speaker 3>Is actually a diminished attack. Normally you would have seen

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<v Speaker 3>saturation strikes by the Iranians of missile drone and it

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<v Speaker 3>hasn't been mentioned cyber strikes as well. The fact that

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<v Speaker 3>these have actually been on a fairly reduced scale shows

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<v Speaker 3>the relative success of American strikes in limiting the number

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<v Speaker 3>of launchers. Now, it's still been a terrible impact. We've

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<v Speaker 3>had losses that are significant, but this is far less

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<v Speaker 3>than Iran would have hoped to achieve. And I must

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<v Speaker 3>also say that Iran has transformed its relationship with the golf.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a terrible defeat for the Iranian diplomacy. They've literally

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<v Speaker 3>turned their relationship with the Golf one hundred and eighty

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<v Speaker 3>degrees from a detante to enemies. And this will last

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<v Speaker 3>for a generation for the Iranians.

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<v Speaker 2>No, and do you see a path to de escalation

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<v Speaker 2>in the coming days.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, The Iranians, in essence, through this conflict will have

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<v Speaker 3>to be compelled to through defeat, through a military defeat,

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<v Speaker 3>to accept the President's terms. That's the path at this point.

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<v Speaker 3>There is not a path through diplomatic negotiations. At this point,

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<v Speaker 3>there is not going to be a path through mediations.

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<v Speaker 3>The Iranians are going to have to accept that they

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<v Speaker 3>cannot in order to survive, in order to stay alive,

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<v Speaker 3>they're going to have to accept that they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>have to come to terms. And again, we're about one

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<v Speaker 3>day in two thousand strikes, and they've watched multiple colleagues

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<v Speaker 3>be killed, the Supreme leader, the heads of their military.

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<v Speaker 3>The lifespan of an Iranian leader is not a very

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<v Speaker 3>long one at present.

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<v Speaker 2>Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 2>So here's the LISUS this morning, the President telling the

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<v Speaker 2>New York Times the assault on Iran could last four

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<v Speaker 2>to five weeks, the President calling on Tehran's leaders to

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<v Speaker 2>sink power to the nation's people, and the former National

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<v Speaker 2>Security Council member, Retied Colonel Joe Rapen joins us now

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<v Speaker 2>for more conor Raye, but welcome to the program soon.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for joining us in your experience, given what

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<v Speaker 2>you've seen over the weekend, do you see a path

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<v Speaker 2>to de escalation here?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, yes, because I mean in this military phase, the

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<v Speaker 5>outcome is essentially it's concluded already.

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<v Speaker 6>It's just a matter of time.

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<v Speaker 5>The Iranian regime has lost control of its own airspace

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<v Speaker 5>over its capital. The Israeli Air force, US Air Force

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<v Speaker 5>is essentially control. It can strike targets at its leisure

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<v Speaker 5>over Tehran. You just simply can't continue and organize a

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<v Speaker 5>defense against that kind of military pressure.

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<v Speaker 2>What kind of nuisance do you think Iranian proxy still

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<v Speaker 2>can cause in the region?

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<v Speaker 5>Just that a nuisance. They're not going to be able

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<v Speaker 5>to tip the strategic balance. You saw overnight a group

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<v Speaker 5>that was probably Hesbala launched six missiles from Lebanon into Israel.

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<v Speaker 5>That's essentially that's fairly suicidal. If Hezbala were to try

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<v Speaker 5>to escalate, they don't have any capacity to resist Israeli

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<v Speaker 5>pressure there either, and I'm sure the Israelis have a

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<v Speaker 5>pretty robust war plan contingency to be able to take

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<v Speaker 5>out those kind of Hesbala assets if it does escalate.

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<v Speaker 4>So, if it is a weekend regime that needs to negotiate, Colonel,

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<v Speaker 4>what does that look like, What do negotiations look like,

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<v Speaker 4>and what sort of leadership do you estimate will arise

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<v Speaker 4>and or on.

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<v Speaker 5>I would think if you do go into a scenario,

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<v Speaker 5>as the President sort of outlined Venezuela type of scenario,

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<v Speaker 5>you'd be looking at the remnants of Revolutionary Guards leadership

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<v Speaker 5>reaching out. There are some political factions and figures that

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<v Speaker 5>are also associated with the Revolutionary Guards. I would expect

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<v Speaker 5>them to be sort of at the head of the

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<v Speaker 5>remnants of the regime to reach out. I've always thought

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<v Speaker 5>that figures such as the RANNIE in Parliament Speaker Mohammed

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<v Speaker 5>Baker Khlobov, for example, I know his name's not really

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<v Speaker 5>known in the West, but he's.

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<v Speaker 6>Very well known in Iran.

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<v Speaker 5>This is a guy who is a former Revolutionary Guards general,

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<v Speaker 5>was also the mayor of Tehran and is now Speaker

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<v Speaker 5>of the Parliament. He's always been, He's had one foot

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<v Speaker 5>in politics and one foot in the revolutionary guards.

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<v Speaker 6>He's not alone. There are different figures like.

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<v Speaker 5>That who, if they survive the coming week or so,

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<v Speaker 5>I would think I would be voted most likely to

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<v Speaker 5>be the Delce Rodriguez figure in Tehran for.

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<v Speaker 6>An interim phase.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think that that means that that kind of

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<v Speaker 5>regime would be sustainable because of the intense popular pressure

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<v Speaker 5>against that regime in its own week in state, But

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<v Speaker 5>at least for a transitional phase, as the President was

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<v Speaker 5>referring to, I think you would have figures like that

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<v Speaker 5>who are sort of pragmatic survivors as opposed to ideologically

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<v Speaker 5>driven millenarians who are just looking for martyrdom.

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<v Speaker 4>So if you then have an Iran that's more willing

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<v Speaker 4>to speak and to negotiate with the US, what does

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<v Speaker 4>that mean of China's position? Who not only witnessed that

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<v Speaker 4>happen in Venice, one of its key allies, but now

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<v Speaker 4>we witness the same change happening in Iran. What is

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<v Speaker 4>the country? What is leadership? What does in President She

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<v Speaker 4>do in this scenario?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's a tough situation for President She, because the

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<v Speaker 5>Iranian regime has been such as an energy supplier as

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<v Speaker 5>well as a strategic military lever that the Chinese have

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<v Speaker 5>been able to use from time to time. So they're

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<v Speaker 5>going to be looking very hard at what comes in

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<v Speaker 5>the wake of this common day regime.

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<v Speaker 6>They're going to have an enormous stake in trying to.

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<v Speaker 5>Retain their influence in Tehran with a follow on regime,

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<v Speaker 5>no matter whether that's a remnant regime of the Islamic

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<v Speaker 5>Republic or that's some kind of new democratic regime. The

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<v Speaker 5>Chinese have a huge stake in trying to ensure that

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<v Speaker 5>it's that it's a China friendly regime. So they will

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<v Speaker 5>be in there competing, but so will all the other

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<v Speaker 5>regional powers in the world powers. It's going to be

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<v Speaker 5>an incredible race for influence in Tehran if there is

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<v Speaker 5>a follow on regime.

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<v Speaker 2>Acono, it's been unbelievable that as we've already seen in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six, you mentioned Venezuela and what we saw

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<v Speaker 2>out at Carancas just two months ago, and now in Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>it's there a coherent strategy here in your mind that

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<v Speaker 2>we should be following.

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<v Speaker 6>A national security strategy.

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<v Speaker 5>Mean, I think there is I think and I think

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<v Speaker 5>with President Trump, it's he has an instinct for essentially

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<v Speaker 5>trying to trying to reduce the influence and the capacity

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<v Speaker 5>of this crank alliance or coalition if you will. It's China, Russia, Iran,

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<v Speaker 5>North Korea and some of its other satellites like Venezuela,

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<v Speaker 5>like the Cuban regime were formerly you know, the Assaud regime,

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<v Speaker 5>and some of their non state actors like Hesbala. I

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<v Speaker 5>do think the president, and I saw this in the

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<v Speaker 5>in the first administration as well when I was on

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<v Speaker 5>the National Security Council staff, he has an instinct to

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<v Speaker 5>try to break up that coalition using different levers of power,

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<v Speaker 5>including the economic lever of power, which is I think

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<v Speaker 5>his instrument choice, if you will.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think the next step will be.

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<v Speaker 6>In Iran or in the national security strategy?

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<v Speaker 5>I think in Iran, look, the military phase is not

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<v Speaker 5>going to last too long. I know people are apprehensive

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<v Speaker 5>about that right now, but we're talking about an Iranian

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<v Speaker 5>regime that simply doesn't have the military capabilities to continue

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<v Speaker 5>for very long. They have a finite number of missile

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<v Speaker 5>launchers which are being hunted right now, and eventually those

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<v Speaker 5>will come down to a level where they're not operationally

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:30.079
<v Speaker 5>significant anymore.

0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.119
<v Speaker 6>So we're really talking about what will be the political

0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:34.360
<v Speaker 6>next step in Tehran.

0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 5>Will there be a Venezuela or Delsea Rodriguez type of

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.760
<v Speaker 5>interim phase there where there will be there will be

0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 5>a remnant regime that will say, okay, okay, no Moss,

0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.800
<v Speaker 5>let's talk about those four demands you had of us

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.200
<v Speaker 5>a couple of weeks ago. And if you get to

0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:53.960
<v Speaker 5>that stage, then I think you can see things stabilized.

0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.600
<v Speaker 5>And also that would open up a window of opportunity

0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.199
<v Speaker 5>for a very different Middle East, because the common A

0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.080
<v Speaker 5>regime has been so destabilizing over the last three decades.

0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.440
<v Speaker 5>It's absence already is going to have a huge impact

0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 5>regardless of how things go forward.

0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.560
<v Speaker 2>Connel, just finally and just quickly, with regards to the

0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.720
<v Speaker 2>national security strategy as they developed, sent around pattaying to that,

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:13.960
<v Speaker 2>what would the next steps be?

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 5>Well, I think it's very Look you're talking about suddenly

0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 5>the removal of a key lynchpin, a Hinge member of

0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 5>this strategic military coalition of China, Iran and Russia, and

0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.040
<v Speaker 5>it's going to be a huge setback to both China

0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 5>and Russia in their regional ambitions. The absence of the

0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:39.400
<v Speaker 5>Kamine regime is going to have a ripple effect in Ukraine,

0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.520
<v Speaker 5>for example, I would say it's going to put vlader

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 5>been putting under a lot more pressure because he will

0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.520
<v Speaker 5>have lost his drone and missile supplier, as well as

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 5>an energy partner and a strategic intelligence ally. And you

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.319
<v Speaker 5>have to think that over in Asia will have a

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 5>ripple effect too on the kind of pressure that President

0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:58.480
<v Speaker 5>She is able to put on the local region.

0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.440
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us, all Bloomberg Savannah's coming up after this,

0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.880
<v Speaker 2>Let's talk about energy under Savannahs this morning a standstill

0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 2>in Homer's.

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.400
<v Speaker 7>While President Trump, like his predecessors, do not want to

0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 7>see high oil prices, he is willing to take risk

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.760
<v Speaker 7>of high oil prices. Iran has the means, the ability

0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:32.720
<v Speaker 7>to make Hormuz unsafe for longer than the market I

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 7>think expects. The only real leverage the Iranian regime could

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.600
<v Speaker 7>hope to have is over the price of oil.

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.160
<v Speaker 2>So here's the lacest this morning in crude spiking the

0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.760
<v Speaker 2>most in almost four years. As tensions are escalating in

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. Tank of traffic through the straight and

0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:51.240
<v Speaker 2>foremost effectively halted threatening about a fifth of the world's

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 2>crued Stephen Shark of the Short group right in the following,

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.160
<v Speaker 2>A regime fighting for its survival would eventually make a

0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 2>move The surprises position for volatility, not direction. Stephen joined us.

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.320
<v Speaker 2>Now for more, Stephen, welcome your line from over the weekend.

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.320
<v Speaker 2>Whether the template from June twenty twenty five is the

0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 2>right one, is this different?

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 8>It very well could be. Now we actually have two

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:14.680
<v Speaker 8>templates to play with here. Of course, we have what

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 8>occurred in the late nineteen nineties, in early nineteen ninety

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 8>one when Iraq invaded Kuwait, and then of course we

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:24.120
<v Speaker 8>had the twelve Day war back in June. In both instances,

0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:28.240
<v Speaker 8>we saw a significant spike in prices immediately, but in

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 8>even greater drop in prices afterwards, and that was the

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 8>market's way of telling us that the resolution was going

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.400
<v Speaker 8>to be quick and it was going to be positive.

0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 8>In nineteen ninety one, it was kicking Sodom out of

0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 8>Kuwait that was a positive prices crash, and twelve day

0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:45.800
<v Speaker 8>war the objective we had a finish line. It was

0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 8>to neutralize, excuse me Iran's nuclear program, and that was

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 8>for the time being achieved quick resolution prices crashed.

0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 1>Now we have the asymmetry.

0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 8>We have an open line, now we have no finish line,

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.840
<v Speaker 8>and so the stated goal is to overthrow the theocracy

0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.680
<v Speaker 8>in Tehran, So whether that happens quickly or not depends,

0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:11.000
<v Speaker 8>So that is the key asymmetry. So what we are

0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:14.320
<v Speaker 8>concerned about, and the only catalysts that will drive oil

0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:18.640
<v Speaker 8>prices sustained higher would be a disruption in long term

0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:20.040
<v Speaker 8>disruption to the flow of oil.

0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.960
<v Speaker 1>So of course we're talking about the straight Amos now.

0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.000
<v Speaker 8>Right now we do have an effective blockade on the street,

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.320
<v Speaker 8>being that we have now made it unensurable, so there

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.920
<v Speaker 8>are no tankers that are going to.

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.920
<v Speaker 1>Transit the Straight, So that is the key situation.

0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 8>But if we do get a quick military resolution, that

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 8>blockade effectively gets lifted immediately, and there we have the

0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 8>scenario loyal oil prices. The concern now is that the

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 8>theocracy in Tehran is able to hold on. We're no

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:54.480
<v Speaker 8>longer dealing with a rational player. Back in June, there

0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 8>was no concern about a closure to the Straight of

0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 8>Homoves because the regime did not they're threatened. Regime wasn't

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 8>going to alienate itself from its arrob trading partners in

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 8>the Golf or its clients in India and China.

0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.200
<v Speaker 1>Therefore, they had consequences.

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:14.439
<v Speaker 8>A regime that is now under threat does not fear consequences.

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.879
<v Speaker 8>So there is the very real threat now that we

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:21.199
<v Speaker 8>go beyond a soft blockade of the Strait and a

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 8>hard a blockaded straight with either mining or missile attacks

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.800
<v Speaker 8>on vessels transit in. So, by the way, it all

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:31.920
<v Speaker 8>comes down now to timing, how quickly is this resolved.

0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.360
<v Speaker 8>It's resolved quickly. I eat in a couple of weeks.

0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 8>That blockade gets lifted immediately.

0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:37.560
<v Speaker 1>And let's not.

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 8>Let's recall that we have about one point seven billion

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 8>barrels sitting in can I.

0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.080
<v Speaker 4>Ask about that blockade and the likelihood of it because

0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 4>a lot of digital link has been spilled, that perhaps

0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.560
<v Speaker 4>Iran doesn't have the capabilities to fully issue a blockade,

0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.359
<v Speaker 4>that they don't have unlimited supply of weapons, that laying

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.679
<v Speaker 4>down minds would be costly for them themselves once they

0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 4>want to reopen the waterway. What, in your summation is

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 4>the full extent of pain that Iran can have when

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.360
<v Speaker 4>it comes to oil energy infrastructure in the state.

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:11.080
<v Speaker 8>Of hormous Yeah, absolutely so, The big threat now here

0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:13.960
<v Speaker 8>is first of all, with the blockade, they don't need

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 8>to take a hard blockade. As we said, you've made

0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 8>it straight right now, unpassable, it's unensurable.

0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Therefore, you do effectively have your blockade. Now.

0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.520
<v Speaker 8>The real concern now is what do we do about

0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.439
<v Speaker 8>oil production. Well, there have been reports that around has

0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:31.240
<v Speaker 8>gone after some of Saudi Qatari as we know, has

0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 8>been shut down, and that is a real concern. The

0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:38.000
<v Speaker 8>concern that we do not have from a US Israeli

0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.760
<v Speaker 8>standpoint is we do not have any sort of threat

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:44.080
<v Speaker 8>on Iran's oil production. We are not going through That

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.160
<v Speaker 8>is not a threat back in June and is not

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:48.840
<v Speaker 8>a threat today. That is the worst thing that the

0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:51.959
<v Speaker 8>Israelis or the Unastates could do. What we want, what

0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:54.760
<v Speaker 8>the stated goal is is to overthrow the theography and

0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:59.160
<v Speaker 8>bring in a more democratic, egalitarian government into Iran. That

0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:02.760
<v Speaker 8>government's going you need cash go, the need income to succeed.

0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.920
<v Speaker 8>That income comes to the form of oil production. So

0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:09.360
<v Speaker 8>oil production is not under threat at this point. From

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:12.480
<v Speaker 8>a standpoint of being attacked by the US or Israeli

0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:17.000
<v Speaker 8>or even Arab forces in reaction to attacks unerve infrastructure,

0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 8>the concern here now is once again we have an

0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:24.000
<v Speaker 8>irrational player. What did Saara Hussein do when he lost

0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:26.080
<v Speaker 8>He burned Kuwaiti's oil fields.

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:29.159
<v Speaker 1>So that is your threat at this point limited, but

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>it is a threat.

0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:34.440
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Survendans podcast, bringing you the best

0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:37.760
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0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:40.760
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0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:44.639
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