WEBVTT - Will Eric Adams’s Exit Change the NYC Mayoral Election? 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:29.004 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:29.044 --> 0:00:32.524 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:33.484 --> 0:00:35.564 Today in the show, look, we're both in New York 0:00:35.604 --> 0:00:38.484 City at least part time. We're going to talk about 0:00:38.484 --> 0:00:41.124 the New York mayor all raise Eric Adams, the current 0:00:41.244 --> 0:00:43.564 mayor incurment mayor of New York dropped out this weekend. 0:00:43.764 --> 0:00:45.924 We're talking about the implications for the race, talk about 0:00:45.964 --> 0:00:48.684 the game theory behind Eric adams decision, and also a 0:00:48.684 --> 0:00:51.724 little bit about this vacuum of leadership that has kind 0:00:51.724 --> 0:00:54.684 of compelled a surprising candidates or I'm I'm doning to 0:00:54.724 --> 0:00:57.484 be the very likely in my opinion, next mayor of 0:00:57.604 --> 0:00:58.004 New York. 0:00:58.324 --> 0:01:01.204 Absolutely, and well we'll, obviously, because this is Risky Business, 0:01:01.284 --> 0:01:03.164 get some game theory in there, the game theory of 0:01:03.164 --> 0:01:07.044 the decision, the timing, all of those fun things. So yeah, 0:01:07.164 --> 0:01:15.324 well we're going to have politics centric show for you today. 0:01:15.364 --> 0:01:18.844 Before we do that, though, Nate Happy Fall. It is 0:01:19.004 --> 0:01:22.844 officially autumn, by the way, so now we're recording this Monday, 0:01:22.884 --> 0:01:25.484 September twenty ninth. It is hot as fuck in New 0:01:25.564 --> 0:01:28.124 York City. It is muggy, it is. 0:01:28.164 --> 0:01:30.924 Great I mean here in Manhattan, Maria, it's a whole 0:01:30.924 --> 0:01:34.524 different micro climate than your neck of the woods. But yeah, 0:01:34.524 --> 0:01:35.564 it's been a little muggy. 0:01:35.724 --> 0:01:39.964 It's muggy, it's sticky, but yet it's officially fall. I 0:01:40.124 --> 0:01:44.924 was in Vermont this weekend leaf watching. That was beautiful. 0:01:45.204 --> 0:01:48.404 But I have to say, you know, whatever, whatever the causes, 0:01:48.484 --> 0:01:51.524 climate change, et cetera, the leaf colors are much more 0:01:51.604 --> 0:01:53.924 muted this year, and by the end of the weekend 0:01:54.004 --> 0:01:57.164 they started almost like everything started falling. I was like, wait, 0:01:57.164 --> 0:01:59.564 this isn't supposed to be peak leafs yet, and yet 0:01:59.644 --> 0:02:01.364 here we are. But it was still beautiful. 0:02:01.644 --> 0:02:05.204 What if climate change made like fawful each better, would 0:02:05.244 --> 0:02:05.684 you favor it? 0:02:05.764 --> 0:02:09.084 Then? Yes? Absolutely? No, please please? 0:02:09.204 --> 0:02:13.364 Does it like pollution make sunsets better? Is that a thing? 0:02:14.324 --> 0:02:19.004 Yes? Yes, mog makes uh smog makes sunsets more beautiful 0:02:19.044 --> 0:02:23.564 because it filters the colors in a funny way, and 0:02:23.684 --> 0:02:28.204 so so yes, absolutely, we have we have some silver 0:02:29.524 --> 0:02:35.084 Nate in terms of risky business business. On the drive 0:02:35.484 --> 0:02:39.684 back from Vermont, driving down this bucolic road you know 0:02:39.964 --> 0:02:43.484 about to like exit and get on the highway, open 0:02:43.564 --> 0:02:48.244 windows because it's nice fall weather. A fucking wasp flies 0:02:48.404 --> 0:02:51.404 into the car, straight into my arm and bites me. 0:02:52.564 --> 0:02:55.404 I got stung for the first time, and I. 0:02:55.324 --> 0:02:56.004 Don't know how long. 0:02:56.044 --> 0:02:58.644 I have no idea I was while I was watching, 0:02:58.684 --> 0:03:00.164 I was like, I have no idea. If I'm allergic, 0:03:00.204 --> 0:03:01.564 I had better drill because I have a lot of 0:03:01.564 --> 0:03:04.804 other allergies. So I was like, okay, I'm ready. And 0:03:04.844 --> 0:03:07.564 I'm in the middle of nowhere, Vermont with no cell reception. 0:03:07.684 --> 0:03:10.244 So I was like, I sure, hope I'm not because 0:03:10.764 --> 0:03:14.284 this ain't good anyway, I'm not allergic. Everything's good. It 0:03:14.444 --> 0:03:17.804 just there was swelling. It really hurt, but so yeah, 0:03:17.884 --> 0:03:19.804 wasps stung me and I thought flew out of the 0:03:19.844 --> 0:03:23.804 car about two out hours later on the highway in 0:03:23.844 --> 0:03:26.444 the middle of the highway, no rest stops in sight. 0:03:27.084 --> 0:03:30.204 The fucker starts buzzing around in the car. The wasp 0:03:30.284 --> 0:03:33.244 did not leave the car. So nay, risky business question, 0:03:33.444 --> 0:03:36.724 risk calculus. What do you do you are on a 0:03:36.804 --> 0:03:39.724 highway driving like seventy five eighty miles an hour and 0:03:39.764 --> 0:03:43.084 there's a wasp flying around like you can't turn off 0:03:43.164 --> 0:03:45.284 because you're on a highway. What are you supposed to do? 0:03:45.324 --> 0:03:48.524 Because that is you know it can't just go on. 0:03:48.844 --> 0:03:51.364 Okay, first of them, Ma, Ria, it's Vermont, right, you're 0:03:51.404 --> 0:03:55.964 not like, it's not like multiple fucking gas station with me. 0:03:56.524 --> 0:03:58.564 This is no, no, no, This is now two hours later. 0:03:58.644 --> 0:04:00.884 This is now on the highway and either Connecticut. I 0:04:00.924 --> 0:04:02.884 think it's in Connecticut. Let's call it Connecticut. 0:04:03.004 --> 0:04:06.044 Yeah, pull over to the nearest gas station. 0:04:06.684 --> 0:04:09.044 There was none. Yeah, the nearest gas station was in 0:04:09.164 --> 0:04:11.844 like twenty miles Connecticut. 0:04:12.564 --> 0:04:15.604 It's the most densely populated state pretty much. 0:04:15.684 --> 0:04:18.004 Right. There's a part where it says like this is 0:04:18.044 --> 0:04:21.324 the last rest stop for the next whatever many miles. 0:04:21.364 --> 0:04:24.284 That's we had passed that point, no. 0:04:25.404 --> 0:04:27.164 End of the road. Put your hazards on and wait 0:04:27.164 --> 0:04:29.684 for the right Yeah. Is that more risky than a 0:04:29.804 --> 0:04:32.444 wasp sting? I think it's probably a close call. I 0:04:32.444 --> 0:04:33.804 think it's a close I was trying to. 0:04:33.724 --> 0:04:36.404 Do the risk calculus. I was like, this thing is terrifying, 0:04:36.484 --> 0:04:38.964 like if it flies at you, the risk of swerving 0:04:39.004 --> 0:04:42.764 and getting into an accident anyway, ended up yet being 0:04:42.804 --> 0:04:46.004 able to pull over and get the Wasp out of 0:04:46.044 --> 0:04:50.964 the car. Superhero moment, Nate superhero moment. But that was actually, 0:04:51.004 --> 0:04:52.284 you know, it's one of those things you don't really 0:04:52.324 --> 0:04:55.004 think about in your risk calculus when you're talking about 0:04:55.444 --> 0:04:57.364 driving in all of these things. But that was my 0:04:57.924 --> 0:05:00.004 I don't know why. Maybe Vermont got mad that I 0:05:00.044 --> 0:05:02.044 didn't love its leaves this year, but it was kind 0:05:02.044 --> 0:05:04.284 of a final fucking from Vermont on my way out 0:05:04.284 --> 0:05:05.284 of the stay. 0:05:06.764 --> 0:05:10.244 Rank the New England states from one to six in 0:05:10.324 --> 0:05:12.484 terms of what goodness? 0:05:13.844 --> 0:05:16.204 Oh man, Well, I don't know. I'm from Massachusetts. You know, 0:05:16.244 --> 0:05:19.484 I grew up there, So I'm gonna put Massachusetts first 0:05:19.604 --> 0:05:23.884 because my family is there. I went to school there. 0:05:24.164 --> 0:05:26.804 You know. There are lots of things about Massachusetts I 0:05:26.804 --> 0:05:29.764 don't like. I think that the term masshole is very apt. 0:05:30.124 --> 0:05:32.004 There are lots of things about Boston I don't like, 0:05:32.004 --> 0:05:34.524 and yet Boston's a beautiful you know, it's a city. Still, 0:05:35.604 --> 0:05:39.924 I think I'm gonna put let me see Maine. I 0:05:39.924 --> 0:05:43.084 think maybe number two. All the mosquitoes might put Maine 0:05:43.084 --> 0:05:44.124 at number three. I don't know. 0:05:45.084 --> 0:05:47.364 Maine is such a fucking clear number one, Like, what 0:05:47.404 --> 0:05:48.244 are you even talking about? 0:05:49.524 --> 0:05:52.524 Maine is gorgeous, But the mosquitoes killed me, So I'm 0:05:52.524 --> 0:05:55.924 gonna put at number two with an asterisk. Fucking the Mosquitoes. 0:05:56.964 --> 0:06:00.764 Let's see, I would put Rhode Island probably number three. 0:06:00.884 --> 0:06:01.644 It's small, but. 0:06:01.684 --> 0:06:04.844 Mighty weird, weird state. Yes, it's a weird set. 0:06:05.044 --> 0:06:06.844 It is a weird state, but it's it has a 0:06:06.844 --> 0:06:10.004 lot of really beautiful stuff, lots of interesting things. Providence 0:06:10.004 --> 0:06:12.324 in Newport. You know, I'm a I'm a fan. 0:06:12.724 --> 0:06:18.204 Let's see Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, so Vermont. Maybe Vermont's 0:06:18.244 --> 0:06:18.724 number four. 0:06:18.884 --> 0:06:21.564 I guess no, No, I love Vermont. I think it's beautiful. 0:06:21.644 --> 0:06:23.884 I think they are people there can be like. It's 0:06:23.884 --> 0:06:27.124 a really weird state as well, and obviously I have 0:06:27.164 --> 0:06:31.684 a personal family connection to Vermont and like for that reason, 0:06:31.724 --> 0:06:33.404 I do love it. So maybe we put Maybe I 0:06:33.404 --> 0:06:37.004 actually put Vermont before Rhode Island. New Hampshire is going 0:06:37.044 --> 0:06:39.124 to be dead last. I hate New Hampshire and I 0:06:39.124 --> 0:06:41.764 hate Connecticut. Connecticut and New Hampshire I kind of tied 0:06:41.764 --> 0:06:42.204 for last. 0:06:44.324 --> 0:06:47.284 What about you day, Yeah, look, Maine Maine is number one. 0:06:47.404 --> 0:06:49.764 Then it gets more difficult. I mean, I like, I 0:06:49.804 --> 0:06:54.844 agree that the bottom tier has to be Connecticut, and 0:06:55.284 --> 0:06:57.244 I think has to be Connecticut. I like, I don't 0:06:57.284 --> 0:07:00.524 dislike Connecticut. In fact, my fucking family, my dad's like 0:07:00.564 --> 0:07:03.084 from Connecticut. So maybe I'm gonna put Yeah, I just 0:07:03.084 --> 0:07:05.324 don't want to be insulting. I mean, maybe put my 0:07:05.604 --> 0:07:06.124 I mean I have. 0:07:06.084 --> 0:07:08.684 Family in Connecticut too. My sister, whom I love dearly, 0:07:08.724 --> 0:07:12.044 were very close. You know. She teaches and her labs 0:07:12.044 --> 0:07:15.324 at Yale, so her family lives in Connecticut. So you know, 0:07:15.444 --> 0:07:19.924 I obviously am not going to be anti Connecticut. I'm 0:07:19.924 --> 0:07:22.524 not anti any state. We're all inclusive here. On the 0:07:22.604 --> 0:07:24.684 Risky Essing the podcast, there's. 0:07:24.484 --> 0:07:26.764 A criteria where if you had to live in a state, 0:07:26.844 --> 0:07:28.204 Let's see, you have to live in that state for 0:07:28.284 --> 0:07:31.844 eleven months out of twelve per year. You're madded thirty 0:07:32.324 --> 0:07:34.964 travel days or whatever, right, and you had to pick 0:07:34.964 --> 0:07:38.404 in New England state. Okay. By that criteria, mass choosets 0:07:38.404 --> 0:07:38.924 would be. 0:07:38.844 --> 0:07:40.804 I'm going to Massachusetts. 0:07:40.244 --> 0:07:43.524 First or second for me? Right, by just overall sentiment, though, 0:07:43.564 --> 0:07:46.444 I mean, I don't really you know, Boston is like 0:07:46.604 --> 0:07:49.804 a charming European city without the charm, you know what 0:07:49.844 --> 0:07:51.364 I mean. I like the layout of Boston. 0:07:51.604 --> 0:07:54.444 Hey, I told you I'm not I'm not a Boston apologist. 0:07:54.644 --> 0:07:56.964 I like the sports and I don't like the sports teams, 0:07:56.964 --> 0:07:58.964 but like you know, I would just go and be 0:07:59.004 --> 0:08:01.084 a fucking I would just watch so much fucking sports 0:08:01.084 --> 0:08:03.884 if I lived in Massachusetts and go to the Encore 0:08:04.364 --> 0:08:05.004 play poker. 0:08:05.324 --> 0:08:07.484 Yeah, absolutely, I think that Boston would actually be a 0:08:07.524 --> 0:08:09.404 good place for you, for like, if you were forced 0:08:09.524 --> 0:08:11.844 to live somewhere for a little while, I think you'd, 0:08:11.964 --> 0:08:15.124 you know, because of the sports, and it has good sushi. Nate, 0:08:15.364 --> 0:08:18.924 you know, no, Maria, I would, Maria, Maria. 0:08:20.404 --> 0:08:24.524 The food in New England is a problem. Literally, fucking 0:08:24.884 --> 0:08:26.484 who is a Graham, you know, the guy who had 0:08:26.524 --> 0:08:28.724 been in the gram Cracker. He lives like, we don't 0:08:28.724 --> 0:08:32.484 want to have food with fucking flavor in it, right food? 0:08:32.524 --> 0:08:35.524 And the food in New England is, yes, an absolute 0:08:35.524 --> 0:08:39.964 problem everywhere, but at least, you know, at least we 0:08:40.004 --> 0:08:42.524 can get decent sushi and Boston. Like in Vermont, I 0:08:42.564 --> 0:08:45.844 really wanted sushi, like you do not get sushi anywhere 0:08:45.884 --> 0:08:48.924 near where I was in Vermont. Want to die, I 0:08:49.004 --> 0:08:51.484 just I was in a sushi mood. I didn't want 0:08:51.484 --> 0:08:54.644 sushi and Vermont. I wanted sushi in the abstract and 0:08:54.684 --> 0:08:58.724 that's not possible anyway. My WASP staying is getting better. 0:08:59.084 --> 0:09:03.684 Fuck wasps. I hate them. I hope I never see 0:09:03.724 --> 0:09:09.244 one again, although obviously I will. Let's move on to politics. 0:09:09.604 --> 0:09:12.844 So we had some news over the weekend, and again 0:09:12.844 --> 0:09:14.684 we're recording this on Monday. You're going to hear it 0:09:14.724 --> 0:09:17.484 on Wednesday, so if there are any developments in the meantime, 0:09:17.484 --> 0:09:21.084 we will not have caught them. But Eric Adams announced 0:09:21.124 --> 0:09:25.764 that he was dropping out of the race for mayor 0:09:25.924 --> 0:09:28.564 of New York City. And he did this just a 0:09:28.564 --> 0:09:31.884 few days before, you know, the race already passed the 0:09:31.924 --> 0:09:35.404 deadline for his name to be removed. 0:09:34.724 --> 0:09:36.924 So passed like a while ago. 0:09:36.804 --> 0:09:40.364 A while ago, Okay, So Mayor Adams announced that he 0:09:40.524 --> 0:09:43.324 was dropping out long after the deadline to take his 0:09:43.444 --> 0:09:47.044 name off of the ballot. And it's a pretty historic 0:09:47.124 --> 0:09:50.604 moment because he is going to be then just the 0:09:50.644 --> 0:09:54.404 second mayor to not win re election. 0:09:55.404 --> 0:09:56.964 And is that true because you think of New York 0:09:56.964 --> 0:10:00.484 mayors as having had problematic careers, but I guess they 0:10:00.484 --> 0:10:02.004 tend to I guess they tend to get the re 0:10:02.044 --> 0:10:03.284 election thing, right. 0:10:03.804 --> 0:10:07.604 Yeah. David Dinkins, who was the city's first black mayor, 0:10:07.724 --> 0:10:11.244 lost his reelection bid, and that was the only other 0:10:11.364 --> 0:10:12.964 mayor who did not serve a second. 0:10:12.724 --> 0:10:15.844 Tim Bloomberg changed the rules to run a third time, 0:10:16.804 --> 0:10:20.204 and one actually close than you might have expected. But yeah, 0:10:20.244 --> 0:10:25.404 I guess I mean the Blasio Bloomberg, Rudy Dinkin's one term, 0:10:26.124 --> 0:10:30.844 Ed Katsch, who is Abraham Beam. I was not aware. 0:10:31.684 --> 0:10:34.204 I You're named Abraham Beam. 0:10:34.924 --> 0:10:37.724 Wait, okay, Nate, So if I'm understanding you correctly, Bean 0:10:38.124 --> 0:10:39.564 also didn't win re election. 0:10:40.404 --> 0:10:43.204 Yeah, he left office in nineteen seventy seven. There's no 0:10:44.244 --> 0:10:49.044 Bean Street, I guess anywhere, not well remembered. And there 0:10:49.044 --> 0:10:50.324 are a couple of others in the past. 0:10:50.684 --> 0:10:53.884 Okay, So Adams is the third in modern New York 0:10:53.924 --> 0:11:00.404 City history who has not won reelection. Very small group that, 0:11:00.684 --> 0:11:03.044 you know, seems like it's an accomplishment of a sort 0:11:03.124 --> 0:11:04.804 negative accomplishment in its own right. 0:11:04.844 --> 0:11:06.044 Modern or contemporary. 0:11:06.084 --> 0:11:10.684 Sorry, it's something contemporary contemporary New York City. But yeah, 0:11:10.844 --> 0:11:14.484 it is very notable that he dropped out, and the timing, Nate, 0:11:14.524 --> 0:11:19.204 I think is quite notable as well, because, well, what 0:11:19.364 --> 0:11:22.044 happens now with the votes, Right, we talked in the 0:11:22.084 --> 0:11:26.644 primaries that the primaries were rank choice voting. That is 0:11:26.764 --> 0:11:30.724 not the case right with the general mayoral election. So 0:11:30.804 --> 0:11:33.444 it's not the case that you know, oh you know, 0:11:33.484 --> 0:11:35.564 if you don't get fifty percent, now we're going to 0:11:35.964 --> 0:11:38.044 you know, your your votes are going to go down 0:11:38.284 --> 0:11:40.724 to the next candidate, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 0:11:40.844 --> 0:11:43.564 And Adams when he was stepping down announcing that he 0:11:43.684 --> 0:11:45.804 was going to be withdrawing from the race also did 0:11:45.844 --> 0:11:49.204 something notable, I think when he did not endorse any 0:11:49.284 --> 0:11:52.044 other candidate. Right, normally, when people drop out of a 0:11:52.164 --> 0:11:54.804 race close to the election, when it's you know, an 0:11:54.804 --> 0:11:58.604 election that has so many political spirits inflamed, you want 0:11:58.604 --> 0:12:01.164 your votes to go to someone, right, you want to 0:12:01.244 --> 0:12:03.644 actually make a statement, and you say, you know, I'm 0:12:03.724 --> 0:12:06.564 dropping out, but I think you know Nate Silver is 0:12:06.604 --> 0:12:10.484 your best choice for mayor. And instead he's like, fuck 0:12:10.564 --> 0:12:12.964 Nate Silver, Fuck all these guys. You know, this guy's 0:12:12.964 --> 0:12:16.284 a snake. This Maria person that can't be trusted, she 0:12:16.404 --> 0:12:19.804 changes her mind. You know, everyone sucks. That was kind 0:12:19.844 --> 0:12:24.644 of his speech, not literally but figuratively speaking. And that 0:12:24.764 --> 0:12:26.964 was another interesting choice. So if we're talking about kind 0:12:27.004 --> 0:12:30.244 of the game theory of his decision, what it means 0:12:30.284 --> 0:12:34.484 other than just like I'm out, this is the timing 0:12:34.844 --> 0:12:36.644 and a big fuck you, it's it is a very 0:12:36.724 --> 0:12:39.484 I think he's made some interesting choices. Yeah. 0:12:39.564 --> 0:12:42.524 Look, I've actually tried to model in the context of 0:12:42.564 --> 0:12:47.604 presidential primaries when candidates drop out, and it's fairly product 0:12:47.684 --> 0:12:50.764 They basically drop out when they have no shot, right, 0:12:51.044 --> 0:12:52.524 and then more likely to drop out if they were 0:12:52.524 --> 0:12:54.364 once perceived to have a shot, meaning that they have 0:12:54.524 --> 0:12:59.084 some type of future, but then they fall far behind 0:12:59.204 --> 0:13:01.524 enough in the polls the fundraising guys up. But yeah, 0:13:02.164 --> 0:13:08.244 he had opportunities allegedly to take various lucrative jobs associated 0:13:08.244 --> 0:13:10.644 with the Trump administration. Maybe you'll take one of those eventually, 0:13:10.684 --> 0:13:15.564 but like he was gonna lose, probably finish in fourth place, right, 0:13:16.964 --> 0:13:19.764 and that would have been embarrassing. So that's that's you know, 0:13:19.884 --> 0:13:23.684 he's trying to preserve credibility for whatever future endeavors that 0:13:23.764 --> 0:13:26.844 he has. I mean with most canistates of the incentive, 0:13:26.884 --> 0:13:30.964 with Eric Adams, I'd say, who knows what's happening in 0:13:31.044 --> 0:13:33.164 terms of you know, look, you know it's New York City. 0:13:33.204 --> 0:13:36.404 You know, maybe you turn a blind eyed stuff. But 0:13:36.444 --> 0:13:39.084 that would be the logical reason he wasn't gonna win, right, 0:13:39.124 --> 0:13:40.964 He wasn't gonna win. He was at oh, zero percent 0:13:40.964 --> 0:13:44.204 in polymarket. He was at eight percent in the polls, 0:13:44.244 --> 0:13:46.404 and so yeah, the game theory is just that, like 0:13:47.964 --> 0:13:49.964 there's a non zero cost to embarrassment. 0:13:50.644 --> 0:13:55.524 So Nate, uh, polymarket, how long has he been close 0:13:55.564 --> 0:13:57.124 to zero on polymarket? 0:13:57.324 --> 0:14:01.204 So according to polymarket, we're full disclosure. I'm an advisor. 0:14:02.444 --> 0:14:04.724 It looks like they may be disabled. It's actually hard 0:14:04.764 --> 0:14:07.164 to find the Eric Adams graph where it's it's like 0:14:07.284 --> 0:14:10.164 now it's zero, but let me take a look here. Yeah, 0:14:10.284 --> 0:14:15.324 so it became clear that the next most viable alternative 0:14:15.524 --> 0:14:20.724 was Andrew Cuomo fairly early, right, I mean Adams is yeah, 0:14:20.804 --> 0:14:22.844 I mean if you're looking back here, yeah, yeah, it's 0:14:22.884 --> 0:14:23.684 hard to even find. 0:14:23.764 --> 0:14:25.484 The reason I asked that question, she got a little. 0:14:25.284 --> 0:14:27.404 Brad lander back in the day. You know, you got 0:14:27.404 --> 0:14:28.004 a lander. 0:14:28.644 --> 0:14:30.964 But the reason I asked the question, right, is that 0:14:31.444 --> 0:14:35.324 it was very clear I think to everyone, as you say, 0:14:35.404 --> 0:14:37.084 that's why I asked how long his poly Market had 0:14:37.164 --> 0:14:39.044 him ut close to zero, that he wasn't going to 0:14:39.084 --> 0:14:41.924 win for a long time, and he made a decision 0:14:41.964 --> 0:14:44.884 to wait until now to drop out, and not earlier. 0:14:45.324 --> 0:14:48.164 Now we could say that, oh, he's just a hubriistic, 0:14:48.404 --> 0:14:51.324 you know, person with head in the clouds and just 0:14:51.364 --> 0:14:54.644 assumes that he can make changes and that eventually. 0:14:54.364 --> 0:14:56.084 He's harek Adams. We're talking about Maria. 0:14:56.364 --> 0:14:58.444 I know, I know, I know, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, 0:14:59.684 --> 0:15:03.124 and that he just thought that he could somehow pull 0:15:03.164 --> 0:15:05.124 a win out of his ass, but that that is 0:15:05.244 --> 0:15:08.764 what it seems like, or or he decided, you know what, 0:15:08.884 --> 0:15:12.364 I want to screw over, like I don't like Cuomo 0:15:12.684 --> 0:15:15.004 enough that like I don't want him to have time 0:15:15.084 --> 0:15:18.204 to consolidate support, right, and so I'm going to spite 0:15:18.324 --> 0:15:22.324 weight until much longer so that he doesn't have time 0:15:22.324 --> 0:15:24.804 to do the fundraising and kind of no, I'm serious, 0:15:24.844 --> 0:15:27.404 like what what are the calculations going through your mind? 0:15:27.844 --> 0:15:31.124 Because it's clear and yes, we know that allegedly he 0:15:31.324 --> 0:15:34.004 had been in talks to become the ambassador to Saudi 0:15:34.004 --> 0:15:38.524 Arabia and that that had fallen through Saudi Arabia, and 0:15:39.684 --> 0:15:43.244 so you know, he's been mulling an exit strategy for 0:15:43.324 --> 0:15:47.444 a while and the announcement only comes now when there's 0:15:47.564 --> 0:15:50.604 not much time to do any to do much of anything. 0:15:50.884 --> 0:15:52.804 And I mean, obviously the other part of it is 0:15:52.924 --> 0:15:55.124 he doesn't have that many votes. I think he's consistently 0:15:55.164 --> 0:15:59.524 pulled in the single digits. Yeah, not like, so even 0:15:59.604 --> 0:16:01.884 if all of his votes go to one single candidate, 0:16:01.924 --> 0:16:05.484 which again he didn't endorse anyone, so that is probably 0:16:05.484 --> 0:16:07.644 not happening. But if that were to happen, that still 0:16:07.644 --> 0:16:10.524 wouldn't be enough to change the outcome of the election. 0:16:11.004 --> 0:16:13.044 So maybe he did that calculus and was like, you 0:16:13.124 --> 0:16:14.444 know what, I'm going to do this in the most 0:16:14.484 --> 0:16:17.244 fuck you way possible, like I said, Or maybe he 0:16:17.324 --> 0:16:19.284 was just hubristic and up until the very end, up 0:16:19.324 --> 0:16:22.204 until this past weekend, thought hey, maybe I can actually 0:16:22.244 --> 0:16:23.004 have a chance. 0:16:23.364 --> 0:16:27.244 Yeah, look, Kenna, in multi way races, you can't have 0:16:28.524 --> 0:16:34.124 interesting dynamics right where you basically have castating effects, where like, 0:16:34.164 --> 0:16:37.244 if one candy is rising the polls and a voter 0:16:37.404 --> 0:16:39.684 is in different between them, then that voter might gravitate 0:16:39.724 --> 0:16:42.564 toward whichever candy seems to have the most chance, right Like, 0:16:42.644 --> 0:16:47.284 there is some evidence that like Zoren has his voters 0:16:47.324 --> 0:16:51.484 and then Cuomo curtisiwa who's the Republican, and Eric Adams 0:16:52.204 --> 0:16:56.084 are kind of competing for the rest of the electorate, 0:16:56.124 --> 0:16:58.444 and whether that's fifty percent or not can be can 0:16:58.484 --> 0:17:01.724 be debated potentially, right, So it's not crazy for somebody 0:17:01.724 --> 0:17:03.004 to think that, Like, by the way it happened in 0:17:03.044 --> 0:17:09.604 the Democratic primary, where like, you know, Zoran was polling 0:17:10.124 --> 0:17:14.524 in a you know, respectable second place in most of 0:17:14.564 --> 0:17:17.044 the polls, and originally he was pulling at one percent, right, 0:17:17.084 --> 0:17:20.764 And I think Eric Adams even like cited Polymarket at 0:17:20.764 --> 0:17:23.924 one point to say, hey, people discounted Zoram before. I 0:17:23.964 --> 0:17:27.844 mean's a little flipped around because they underestimated Zoram. Maybe 0:17:27.844 --> 0:17:29.324 they will again and have win by any of a 0:17:29.324 --> 0:17:31.444 bigger margin than polls show. I don't know, but like, 0:17:31.604 --> 0:17:36.004 it's not it wouldn't be crazy for Eric Adams to 0:17:36.124 --> 0:17:39.244 think this race could you know, have some unexpected turns 0:17:39.724 --> 0:17:43.404 if he didn't have so many hard negatives. Right, his 0:17:43.444 --> 0:17:47.204 approval ratings in New York are quite low. The fact 0:17:47.244 --> 0:17:49.724 that he's buddy buddy with Trump. There are some Trump 0:17:49.764 --> 0:17:51.284 oters in New York more than they used to be, 0:17:51.444 --> 0:17:53.764 but does not help him unbalanced with what's going to 0:17:53.844 --> 0:17:58.204 be probably a fairly young liberal electorate. Right, So those 0:17:58.244 --> 0:18:00.764 hard negatives really because you know, he's had opportunities, you know, 0:18:00.884 --> 0:18:04.084 and also he wasn't is the incumbent he was not 0:18:04.164 --> 0:18:09.644 intimidating enough to deter Cuomo from running, even when Alma 0:18:09.924 --> 0:18:13.564 was frankly embarrassed already in the primary. Is a glutton 0:18:13.604 --> 0:18:15.924 for more punishment apparently clearly. 0:18:16.564 --> 0:18:21.164 Yeah, yeah, And uh, it's interesting because you know Cuomo 0:18:21.364 --> 0:18:24.324 has you know, I think all of the other candidates 0:18:24.404 --> 0:18:29.724 except for Sila have considered potential deals, right, and Curtis 0:18:29.764 --> 0:18:34.964 Sila says, you know, I'm not Sliwa. Sorry, I yes, Sliwa. 0:18:35.404 --> 0:18:38.764 This is this is one of those that I my 0:18:38.884 --> 0:18:44.124 dyslexia definitely kicks in. So Curtis Sliwa has said repeatedly 0:18:44.204 --> 0:18:46.004 that you know, I'm not dropping out and I'm not 0:18:46.044 --> 0:18:50.084 given my votes to anyone else, and he's been pretty 0:18:50.324 --> 0:18:55.004 i think, consistent about that. And that is the one 0:18:55.044 --> 0:18:58.564 candidate who could have probably moved the needle right if 0:18:58.564 --> 0:18:59.804 he dropped out. 0:19:03.644 --> 0:19:05.524 And we'll be right back after this break. 0:19:21.004 --> 0:19:23.764 One of the things you mentioned, Nate earlier in the 0:19:23.804 --> 0:19:26.484 episode was kind of this democratic power vacuum and this 0:19:26.924 --> 0:19:30.764 lack of kind of focused direction, consensus on the future 0:19:30.764 --> 0:19:32.484 of the party. Now. You and I talked about this 0:19:32.524 --> 0:19:35.924 briefly back in the primary, right after zora On had won, 0:19:36.284 --> 0:19:39.524 and I think that that's even more true. Now. It's 0:19:39.564 --> 0:19:42.364 interesting when the Democratic Party is trying to reach the 0:19:42.404 --> 0:19:46.204 Republicans to try to take votes away from a Democrat, right, 0:19:46.284 --> 0:19:50.364 Like that doesn't happen that often when they say, Okay, 0:19:50.364 --> 0:19:54.404 this Democrat is a little too democratic for us, and 0:19:54.444 --> 0:19:57.764 so maybe we want to reach out to our Republican 0:19:57.844 --> 0:20:02.364 counterparts to prevent him from becoming mayor. That's an interesting 0:20:02.684 --> 0:20:03.884 playbook page. 0:20:04.764 --> 0:20:08.084 Yeah. Look, I don't think it's helped I don't think 0:20:08.084 --> 0:20:12.004 it's hurt Zora much. That Like there's such explicit attempts 0:20:12.004 --> 0:20:14.204 at coordination, where like every week a new hedge from 0:20:14.244 --> 0:20:16.644 billionaireuld be like, we can't let this socialist wait, and 0:20:16.724 --> 0:20:19.524 let's get all the conservatives together, right, And it's like 0:20:19.924 --> 0:20:22.244 you kind of are making the point for Zoren, like 0:20:22.244 --> 0:20:24.364 it's a bunch of billionaires trying to crowd him out 0:20:24.764 --> 0:20:29.044 of the mayorship, right, and like it's you know, look, 0:20:29.124 --> 0:20:37.204 I think a non scandal plagued and actually interested in 0:20:37.244 --> 0:20:40.244 being there of New York Andrew Cuomo might have been 0:20:40.244 --> 0:20:45.324 a better can eight. I don't know, right, but yeah, 0:20:45.364 --> 0:20:48.684 you got locked into some very flawed alternatives early in 0:20:48.724 --> 0:20:50.404 New York. It does have fairly strict ballot laws. It 0:20:50.484 --> 0:20:53.284 was not possible to get like a a a new 0:20:53.364 --> 0:20:55.684 name on the ballot without signatures because the primary was 0:20:55.724 --> 0:20:57.924 back in June. And so I know, I have a 0:20:57.964 --> 0:21:04.444 lot of respect for Zoran's political talent. But yeah, and 0:21:04.524 --> 0:21:05.684 I don't know. What do you think about what do 0:21:05.684 --> 0:21:06.444 you think about Cuomo? 0:21:10.444 --> 0:21:13.164 I have not. I am not a huge fan. 0:21:13.404 --> 0:21:16.964 Did you watch the pandemic briefings? 0:21:16.404 --> 0:21:20.364 I tried. I started out watching the pandemic briefings. 0:21:20.404 --> 0:21:21.524 There wasn't much else to do. 0:21:22.284 --> 0:21:25.164 This is true, This is true. We were all stuck. 0:21:26.164 --> 0:21:29.164 I was stuck in my eight hundred square foot apartment 0:21:29.364 --> 0:21:30.564 in Brooklyn at the time. 0:21:30.684 --> 0:21:34.124 No I remember like going to like was it New 0:21:34.204 --> 0:21:38.004 Year's twenty twenty and I was twenty twenty? Is COVID year? 0:21:38.044 --> 0:21:41.644 It's all it seems like happily so long ago now, Maria, right, 0:21:41.684 --> 0:21:45.244 And like we were in some fucking restaurant and Brooklyn 0:21:45.284 --> 0:21:48.204 outdoors and like a close like the minute at mint anyway, 0:21:48.244 --> 0:21:50.644