Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making
Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm Nate Silver.
Speaker 2: Today in the show, look, we're both in New York
Speaker 2: City at least part time. We're going to talk about
Speaker 2: the New York mayor all raise Eric Adams, the current
Speaker 2: mayor incurment mayor of New York dropped out this weekend.
Speaker 2: We're talking about the implications for the race, talk about
Speaker 2: the game theory behind Eric adams decision, and also a
Speaker 2: little bit about this vacuum of leadership that has kind
Speaker 2: of compelled a surprising candidates or I'm I'm doning to
Speaker 2: be the very likely in my opinion, next mayor of
Speaker 2: New York.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and well we'll, obviously, because this is Risky Business,
Speaker 1: get some game theory in there, the game theory of
Speaker 1: the decision, the timing, all of those fun things. So yeah,
Speaker 1: well we're going to have politics centric show for you today.
Speaker 1: Before we do that, though, Nate Happy Fall. It is
Speaker 1: officially autumn, by the way, so now we're recording this Monday,
Speaker 1: September twenty ninth. It is hot as fuck in New
Speaker 1: York City. It is muggy, it is.
Speaker 2: Great I mean here in Manhattan, Maria, it's a whole
Speaker 2: different micro climate than your neck of the woods. But yeah,
Speaker 2: it's been a little muggy.
Speaker 1: It's muggy, it's sticky, but yet it's officially fall. I
Speaker 1: was in Vermont this weekend leaf watching. That was beautiful.
Speaker 1: But I have to say, you know, whatever, whatever the causes,
Speaker 1: climate change, et cetera, the leaf colors are much more
Speaker 1: muted this year, and by the end of the weekend
Speaker 1: they started almost like everything started falling. I was like, wait,
Speaker 1: this isn't supposed to be peak leafs yet, and yet
Speaker 1: here we are. But it was still beautiful.
Speaker 2: What if climate change made like fawful each better, would
Speaker 2: you favor it?
Speaker 1: Then? Yes? Absolutely? No, please please?
Speaker 2: Does it like pollution make sunsets better? Is that a thing?
Speaker 1: Yes? Yes, mog makes uh smog makes sunsets more beautiful
Speaker 1: because it filters the colors in a funny way, and
Speaker 1: so so yes, absolutely, we have we have some silver
Speaker 1: Nate in terms of risky business business. On the drive
Speaker 1: back from Vermont, driving down this bucolic road you know
Speaker 1: about to like exit and get on the highway, open
Speaker 1: windows because it's nice fall weather. A fucking wasp flies
Speaker 1: into the car, straight into my arm and bites me.
Speaker 1: I got stung for the first time, and I.
Speaker 2: Don't know how long.
Speaker 1: I have no idea I was while I was watching,
Speaker 1: I was like, I have no idea. If I'm allergic,
Speaker 1: I had better drill because I have a lot of
Speaker 1: other allergies. So I was like, okay, I'm ready. And
Speaker 1: I'm in the middle of nowhere, Vermont with no cell reception.
Speaker 1: So I was like, I sure, hope I'm not because
Speaker 1: this ain't good anyway, I'm not allergic. Everything's good. It
Speaker 1: just there was swelling. It really hurt, but so yeah,
Speaker 1: wasps stung me and I thought flew out of the
Speaker 1: car about two out hours later on the highway in
Speaker 1: the middle of the highway, no rest stops in sight.
Speaker 1: The fucker starts buzzing around in the car. The wasp
Speaker 1: did not leave the car. So nay, risky business question,
Speaker 1: risk calculus. What do you do you are on a
Speaker 1: highway driving like seventy five eighty miles an hour and
Speaker 1: there's a wasp flying around like you can't turn off
Speaker 1: because you're on a highway. What are you supposed to do?
Speaker 1: Because that is you know it can't just go on.
Speaker 2: Okay, first of them, Ma, Ria, it's Vermont, right, you're
Speaker 2: not like, it's not like multiple fucking gas station with me.
Speaker 1: This is no, no, no, This is now two hours later.
Speaker 1: This is now on the highway and either Connecticut. I
Speaker 1: think it's in Connecticut. Let's call it Connecticut.
Speaker 2: Yeah, pull over to the nearest gas station.
Speaker 1: There was none. Yeah, the nearest gas station was in
Speaker 1: like twenty miles Connecticut.
Speaker 2: It's the most densely populated state pretty much.
Speaker 1: Right. There's a part where it says like this is
Speaker 1: the last rest stop for the next whatever many miles.
Speaker 1: That's we had passed that point, no.
Speaker 2: End of the road. Put your hazards on and wait
Speaker 2: for the right Yeah. Is that more risky than a
Speaker 2: wasp sting? I think it's probably a close call. I
Speaker 2: think it's a close I was trying to.
Speaker 1: Do the risk calculus. I was like, this thing is terrifying,
Speaker 1: like if it flies at you, the risk of swerving
Speaker 1: and getting into an accident anyway, ended up yet being
Speaker 1: able to pull over and get the Wasp out of
Speaker 1: the car. Superhero moment, Nate superhero moment. But that was actually,
Speaker 1: you know, it's one of those things you don't really
Speaker 1: think about in your risk calculus when you're talking about
Speaker 1: driving in all of these things. But that was my
Speaker 1: I don't know why. Maybe Vermont got mad that I
Speaker 1: didn't love its leaves this year, but it was kind
Speaker 1: of a final fucking from Vermont on my way out
Speaker 1: of the stay.
Speaker 2: Rank the New England states from one to six in
Speaker 2: terms of what goodness?
Speaker 1: Oh man, Well, I don't know. I'm from Massachusetts. You know,
Speaker 1: I grew up there, So I'm gonna put Massachusetts first
Speaker 1: because my family is there. I went to school there.
Speaker 1: You know. There are lots of things about Massachusetts I
Speaker 1: don't like. I think that the term masshole is very apt.
Speaker 1: There are lots of things about Boston I don't like,
Speaker 1: and yet Boston's a beautiful you know, it's a city. Still,
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna put let me see Maine. I
Speaker 1: think maybe number two. All the mosquitoes might put Maine
Speaker 1: at number three. I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maine is such a fucking clear number one, Like, what
Speaker 2: are you even talking about?
Speaker 1: Maine is gorgeous, But the mosquitoes killed me, So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna put at number two with an asterisk. Fucking the Mosquitoes.
Speaker 1: Let's see, I would put Rhode Island probably number three.
Speaker 1: It's small, but.
Speaker 2: Mighty weird, weird state. Yes, it's a weird set.
Speaker 1: It is a weird state, but it's it has a
Speaker 1: lot of really beautiful stuff, lots of interesting things. Providence
Speaker 1: in Newport. You know, I'm a I'm a fan.
Speaker 2: Let's see Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, so Vermont. Maybe Vermont's
Speaker 2: number four.
Speaker 1: I guess no, No, I love Vermont. I think it's beautiful.
Speaker 1: I think they are people there can be like. It's
Speaker 1: a really weird state as well, and obviously I have
Speaker 1: a personal family connection to Vermont and like for that reason,
Speaker 1: I do love it. So maybe we put Maybe I
Speaker 1: actually put Vermont before Rhode Island. New Hampshire is going
Speaker 1: to be dead last. I hate New Hampshire and I
Speaker 1: hate Connecticut. Connecticut and New Hampshire I kind of tied
Speaker 1: for last.
Speaker 2: What about you day, Yeah, look, Maine Maine is number one.
Speaker 2: Then it gets more difficult. I mean, I like, I
Speaker 2: agree that the bottom tier has to be Connecticut, and
Speaker 2: I think has to be Connecticut. I like, I don't
Speaker 2: dislike Connecticut. In fact, my fucking family, my dad's like
Speaker 2: from Connecticut. So maybe I'm gonna put Yeah, I just
Speaker 2: don't want to be insulting. I mean, maybe put my
Speaker 2: I mean I have.
Speaker 1: Family in Connecticut too. My sister, whom I love dearly,
Speaker 1: were very close. You know. She teaches and her labs
Speaker 1: at Yale, so her family lives in Connecticut. So you know,
Speaker 1: I obviously am not going to be anti Connecticut. I'm
Speaker 1: not anti any state. We're all inclusive here. On the
Speaker 1: Risky Essing the podcast, there's.
Speaker 2: A criteria where if you had to live in a state,
Speaker 2: Let's see, you have to live in that state for
Speaker 2: eleven months out of twelve per year. You're madded thirty
Speaker 2: travel days or whatever, right, and you had to pick
Speaker 2: in New England state. Okay. By that criteria, mass choosets
Speaker 2: would be.
Speaker 1: I'm going to Massachusetts.
Speaker 2: First or second for me? Right, by just overall sentiment, though,
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really you know, Boston is like
Speaker 2: a charming European city without the charm, you know what
Speaker 2: I mean. I like the layout of Boston.
Speaker 1: Hey, I told you I'm not I'm not a Boston apologist.
Speaker 2: I like the sports and I don't like the sports teams,
Speaker 2: but like you know, I would just go and be
Speaker 2: a fucking I would just watch so much fucking sports
Speaker 2: if I lived in Massachusetts and go to the Encore
Speaker 2: play poker.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think that Boston would actually be a
Speaker 1: good place for you, for like, if you were forced
Speaker 1: to live somewhere for a little while, I think you'd,
Speaker 1: you know, because of the sports, and it has good sushi. Nate,
Speaker 1: you know, no, Maria, I would, Maria, Maria.
Speaker 2: The food in New England is a problem. Literally, fucking
Speaker 2: who is a Graham, you know, the guy who had
Speaker 2: been in the gram Cracker. He lives like, we don't
Speaker 2: want to have food with fucking flavor in it, right food?
Speaker 1: And the food in New England is, yes, an absolute
Speaker 1: problem everywhere, but at least, you know, at least we
Speaker 1: can get decent sushi and Boston. Like in Vermont, I
Speaker 1: really wanted sushi, like you do not get sushi anywhere
Speaker 1: near where I was in Vermont. Want to die, I
Speaker 1: just I was in a sushi mood. I didn't want
Speaker 1: sushi and Vermont. I wanted sushi in the abstract and
Speaker 1: that's not possible anyway. My WASP staying is getting better.
Speaker 1: Fuck wasps. I hate them. I hope I never see
Speaker 1: one again, although obviously I will. Let's move on to politics.
Speaker 1: So we had some news over the weekend, and again
Speaker 1: we're recording this on Monday. You're going to hear it
Speaker 1: on Wednesday, so if there are any developments in the meantime,
Speaker 1: we will not have caught them. But Eric Adams announced
Speaker 1: that he was dropping out of the race for mayor
Speaker 1: of New York City. And he did this just a
Speaker 1: few days before, you know, the race already passed the
Speaker 1: deadline for his name to be removed.
Speaker 2: So passed like a while ago.
Speaker 1: A while ago, Okay, So Mayor Adams announced that he
Speaker 1: was dropping out long after the deadline to take his
Speaker 1: name off of the ballot. And it's a pretty historic
Speaker 1: moment because he is going to be then just the
Speaker 1: second mayor to not win re election.
Speaker 2: And is that true because you think of New York
Speaker 2: mayors as having had problematic careers, but I guess they
Speaker 2: tend to I guess they tend to get the re
Speaker 2: election thing, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah. David Dinkins, who was the city's first black mayor,
Speaker 1: lost his reelection bid, and that was the only other
Speaker 1: mayor who did not serve a second.
Speaker 2: Tim Bloomberg changed the rules to run a third time,
Speaker 2: and one actually close than you might have expected. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I guess I mean the Blasio Bloomberg, Rudy Dinkin's one term,
Speaker 2: Ed Katsch, who is Abraham Beam. I was not aware.
Speaker 2: I You're named Abraham Beam.
Speaker 1: Wait, okay, Nate, So if I'm understanding you correctly, Bean
Speaker 1: also didn't win re election.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he left office in nineteen seventy seven. There's no
Speaker 2: Bean Street, I guess anywhere, not well remembered. And there
Speaker 2: are a couple of others in the past.
Speaker 1: Okay, So Adams is the third in modern New York
Speaker 1: City history who has not won reelection. Very small group that,
Speaker 1: you know, seems like it's an accomplishment of a sort
Speaker 1: negative accomplishment in its own right.
Speaker 2: Modern or contemporary.
Speaker 1: Sorry, it's something contemporary contemporary New York City. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it is very notable that he dropped out, and the timing, Nate,
Speaker 1: I think is quite notable as well, because, well, what
Speaker 1: happens now with the votes, Right, we talked in the
Speaker 1: primaries that the primaries were rank choice voting. That is
Speaker 1: not the case right with the general mayoral election. So
Speaker 1: it's not the case that you know, oh you know,
Speaker 1: if you don't get fifty percent, now we're going to
Speaker 1: you know, your your votes are going to go down
Speaker 1: to the next candidate, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: And Adams when he was stepping down announcing that he
Speaker 1: was going to be withdrawing from the race also did
Speaker 1: something notable, I think when he did not endorse any
Speaker 1: other candidate. Right, normally, when people drop out of a
Speaker 1: race close to the election, when it's you know, an
Speaker 1: election that has so many political spirits inflamed, you want
Speaker 1: your votes to go to someone, right, you want to
Speaker 1: actually make a statement, and you say, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: dropping out, but I think you know Nate Silver is
Speaker 1: your best choice for mayor. And instead he's like, fuck
Speaker 1: Nate Silver, Fuck all these guys. You know, this guy's
Speaker 1: a snake. This Maria person that can't be trusted, she
Speaker 1: changes her mind. You know, everyone sucks. That was kind
Speaker 1: of his speech, not literally but figuratively speaking. And that
Speaker 1: was another interesting choice. So if we're talking about kind
Speaker 1: of the game theory of his decision, what it means
Speaker 1: other than just like I'm out, this is the timing
Speaker 1: and a big fuck you, it's it is a very
Speaker 1: I think he's made some interesting choices. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Look, I've actually tried to model in the context of
Speaker 2: presidential primaries when candidates drop out, and it's fairly product
Speaker 2: They basically drop out when they have no shot, right,
Speaker 2: and then more likely to drop out if they were
Speaker 2: once perceived to have a shot, meaning that they have
Speaker 2: some type of future, but then they fall far behind
Speaker 2: enough in the polls the fundraising guys up. But yeah,
Speaker 2: he had opportunities allegedly to take various lucrative jobs associated
Speaker 2: with the Trump administration. Maybe you'll take one of those eventually,
Speaker 2: but like he was gonna lose, probably finish in fourth place, right,
Speaker 2: and that would have been embarrassing. So that's that's you know,
Speaker 2: he's trying to preserve credibility for whatever future endeavors that
Speaker 2: he has. I mean with most canistates of the incentive,
Speaker 2: with Eric Adams, I'd say, who knows what's happening in
Speaker 2: terms of you know, look, you know it's New York City.
Speaker 2: You know, maybe you turn a blind eyed stuff. But
Speaker 2: that would be the logical reason he wasn't gonna win, right,
Speaker 2: He wasn't gonna win. He was at oh, zero percent
Speaker 2: in polymarket. He was at eight percent in the polls,
Speaker 2: and so yeah, the game theory is just that, like
Speaker 2: there's a non zero cost to embarrassment.
Speaker 1: So Nate, uh, polymarket, how long has he been close
Speaker 1: to zero on polymarket?
Speaker 2: So according to polymarket, we're full disclosure. I'm an advisor.
Speaker 2: It looks like they may be disabled. It's actually hard
Speaker 2: to find the Eric Adams graph where it's it's like
Speaker 2: now it's zero, but let me take a look here. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so it became clear that the next most viable alternative
Speaker 2: was Andrew Cuomo fairly early, right, I mean Adams is yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean if you're looking back here, yeah, yeah, it's
Speaker 2: hard to even find.
Speaker 1: The reason I asked that question, she got a little.
Speaker 2: Brad lander back in the day. You know, you got
Speaker 2: a lander.
Speaker 1: But the reason I asked the question, right, is that
Speaker 1: it was very clear I think to everyone, as you say,
Speaker 1: that's why I asked how long his poly Market had
Speaker 1: him ut close to zero, that he wasn't going to
Speaker 1: win for a long time, and he made a decision
Speaker 1: to wait until now to drop out, and not earlier.
Speaker 1: Now we could say that, oh, he's just a hubriistic,
Speaker 1: you know, person with head in the clouds and just
Speaker 1: assumes that he can make changes and that eventually.
Speaker 2: He's harek Adams. We're talking about Maria.
Speaker 1: I know, I know, I know, I'm sorry, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: and that he just thought that he could somehow pull
Speaker 1: a win out of his ass, but that that is
Speaker 1: what it seems like, or or he decided, you know what,
Speaker 1: I want to screw over, like I don't like Cuomo
Speaker 1: enough that like I don't want him to have time
Speaker 1: to consolidate support, right, and so I'm going to spite
Speaker 1: weight until much longer so that he doesn't have time
Speaker 1: to do the fundraising and kind of no, I'm serious,
Speaker 1: like what what are the calculations going through your mind?
Speaker 1: Because it's clear and yes, we know that allegedly he
Speaker 1: had been in talks to become the ambassador to Saudi
Speaker 1: Arabia and that that had fallen through Saudi Arabia, and
Speaker 1: so you know, he's been mulling an exit strategy for
Speaker 1: a while and the announcement only comes now when there's
Speaker 1: not much time to do any to do much of anything.
Speaker 1: And I mean, obviously the other part of it is
Speaker 1: he doesn't have that many votes. I think he's consistently
Speaker 1: pulled in the single digits. Yeah, not like, so even
Speaker 1: if all of his votes go to one single candidate,
Speaker 1: which again he didn't endorse anyone, so that is probably
Speaker 1: not happening. But if that were to happen, that still
Speaker 1: wouldn't be enough to change the outcome of the election.
Speaker 1: So maybe he did that calculus and was like, you
Speaker 1: know what, I'm going to do this in the most
Speaker 1: fuck you way possible, like I said, Or maybe he
Speaker 1: was just hubristic and up until the very end, up
Speaker 1: until this past weekend, thought hey, maybe I can actually
Speaker 1: have a chance.
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, Kenna, in multi way races, you can't have
Speaker 2: interesting dynamics right where you basically have castating effects, where like,
Speaker 2: if one candy is rising the polls and a voter
Speaker 2: is in different between them, then that voter might gravitate
Speaker 2: toward whichever candy seems to have the most chance, right Like,
Speaker 2: there is some evidence that like Zoren has his voters
Speaker 2: and then Cuomo curtisiwa who's the Republican, and Eric Adams
Speaker 2: are kind of competing for the rest of the electorate,
Speaker 2: and whether that's fifty percent or not can be can
Speaker 2: be debated potentially, right, So it's not crazy for somebody
Speaker 2: to think that, Like, by the way it happened in
Speaker 2: the Democratic primary, where like, you know, Zoran was polling
Speaker 2: in a you know, respectable second place in most of
Speaker 2: the polls, and originally he was pulling at one percent, right,
Speaker 2: And I think Eric Adams even like cited Polymarket at
Speaker 2: one point to say, hey, people discounted Zoram before. I
Speaker 2: mean's a little flipped around because they underestimated Zoram. Maybe
Speaker 2: they will again and have win by any of a
Speaker 2: bigger margin than polls show. I don't know, but like,
Speaker 2: it's not it wouldn't be crazy for Eric Adams to
Speaker 2: think this race could you know, have some unexpected turns
Speaker 2: if he didn't have so many hard negatives. Right, his
Speaker 2: approval ratings in New York are quite low. The fact
Speaker 2: that he's buddy buddy with Trump. There are some Trump
Speaker 2: oters in New York more than they used to be,
Speaker 2: but does not help him unbalanced with what's going to
Speaker 2: be probably a fairly young liberal electorate. Right, So those
Speaker 2: hard negatives really because you know, he's had opportunities, you know,
Speaker 2: and also he wasn't is the incumbent he was not
Speaker 2: intimidating enough to deter Cuomo from running, even when Alma
Speaker 2: was frankly embarrassed already in the primary. Is a glutton
Speaker 2: for more punishment apparently clearly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And uh, it's interesting because you know Cuomo
Speaker 1: has you know, I think all of the other candidates
Speaker 1: except for Sila have considered potential deals, right, and Curtis
Speaker 1: Sila says, you know, I'm not Sliwa. Sorry, I yes, Sliwa.
Speaker 1: This is this is one of those that I my
Speaker 1: dyslexia definitely kicks in. So Curtis Sliwa has said repeatedly
Speaker 1: that you know, I'm not dropping out and I'm not
Speaker 1: given my votes to anyone else, and he's been pretty
Speaker 1: i think, consistent about that. And that is the one
Speaker 1: candidate who could have probably moved the needle right if
Speaker 1: he dropped out.
Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break.
Speaker 1: One of the things you mentioned, Nate earlier in the
Speaker 1: episode was kind of this democratic power vacuum and this
Speaker 1: lack of kind of focused direction, consensus on the future
Speaker 1: of the party. Now. You and I talked about this
Speaker 1: briefly back in the primary, right after zora On had won,
Speaker 1: and I think that that's even more true. Now. It's
Speaker 1: interesting when the Democratic Party is trying to reach the
Speaker 1: Republicans to try to take votes away from a Democrat, right,
Speaker 1: Like that doesn't happen that often when they say, Okay,
Speaker 1: this Democrat is a little too democratic for us, and
Speaker 1: so maybe we want to reach out to our Republican
Speaker 1: counterparts to prevent him from becoming mayor. That's an interesting
Speaker 1: playbook page.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I don't think it's helped I don't think
Speaker 2: it's hurt Zora much. That Like there's such explicit attempts
Speaker 2: at coordination, where like every week a new hedge from
Speaker 2: billionaireuld be like, we can't let this socialist wait, and
Speaker 2: let's get all the conservatives together, right, And it's like
Speaker 2: you kind of are making the point for Zoren, like
Speaker 2: it's a bunch of billionaires trying to crowd him out
Speaker 2: of the mayorship, right, and like it's you know, look,
Speaker 2: I think a non scandal plagued and actually interested in
Speaker 2: being there of New York Andrew Cuomo might have been
Speaker 2: a better can eight. I don't know, right, but yeah,
Speaker 2: you got locked into some very flawed alternatives early in
Speaker 2: New York. It does have fairly strict ballot laws. It
Speaker 2: was not possible to get like a a a new
Speaker 2: name on the ballot without signatures because the primary was
Speaker 2: back in June. And so I know, I have a
Speaker 2: lot of respect for Zoran's political talent. But yeah, and
Speaker 2: I don't know. What do you think about what do
Speaker 2: you think about Cuomo?
Speaker 1: I have not. I am not a huge fan.
Speaker 2: Did you watch the pandemic briefings?
Speaker 1: I tried. I started out watching the pandemic briefings.
Speaker 2: There wasn't much else to do.
Speaker 1: This is true, This is true. We were all stuck.
Speaker 1: I was stuck in my eight hundred square foot apartment
Speaker 1: in Brooklyn at the time.
Speaker 2: No I remember like going to like was it New
Speaker 2: Year's twenty twenty and I was twenty twenty? Is COVID year?
Speaker 2: It's all it seems like happily so long ago now, Maria, right,
Speaker 2: And like we were in some fucking restaurant and Brooklyn
Speaker 2: outdoors and like a close like the minute at mint anyway,
Speaker 2: all these fucking rules about outdoor dying. It just kind
Speaker 2: of brings back those people who have like, oh I have,
Speaker 2: I kind of have nostalgia for COVID. Fuck you, you know,
Speaker 2: I don't know it was you know, maybe if you
Speaker 2: were in a warm state, right, but not that winter
Speaker 2: in New York. But yeah, look, you know, I think
Speaker 2: zarn't also been to the fact that like the establishment
Speaker 2: and the Democratic Party has been kind of discredited. Right people,
Speaker 2: for better or worse, don't really believe that it's going
Speaker 2: to win elections. And also you have all these leaders
Speaker 2: who are either you know, neo babies is NEPO or
Speaker 2: nepo I guessmotism either babies, Oh, really fucking old, you
Speaker 2: know what I mean? Babies? Yeah, and like and like
Speaker 2: people are are tired of that, and like the left
Speaker 2: has the kind of you know, I mean, I guess
Speaker 2: the left gained a lot of cultural power in some ways,
Speaker 2: like a certain kind of maybe more cultural woke left,
Speaker 2: which I don't consider really the true left. I think
Speaker 2: they're just kind of this other thing that's kind of
Speaker 2: correlated with the left. But you know, why not why
Speaker 2: not give why not give socialism a trimary? We've tried
Speaker 2: everything else and we're out of ideas.
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think that it's a you know,
Speaker 1: it's a really interesting and pivotal moment in the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party because I mean, we've talked about this to death,
Speaker 1: but there is this major power vacuum and lack of
Speaker 1: direction and lack of understanding of how to win votes.
Speaker 1: You know, it's mind boggling to me that a party
Speaker 1: that used to be able to organize so effectively, I mean,
Speaker 1: New York was the center of democratic political organization for
Speaker 1: so long with you know, Tammany Hall is a drag queen. No, yes,
Speaker 1: I mean, actually, Nate, I'm pretty sure there's there must
Speaker 1: be a drag queen out there whose name is Tammany Hall.
Speaker 1: And if there's not drag queens, if you're listening to this,
Speaker 1: please can we have a Tammany Hall drag queen? But
Speaker 1: the particular one I am referring to it would be
Speaker 1: such a great name. Was a New York political machine
Speaker 1: which had influence on a national scale. Started in in
Speaker 1: the late seventeen hundreds, had a ton of influence in
Speaker 1: the eighteen hundreds, basically engineered, manipulated, did a lot of stuff,
Speaker 1: some good old fashioned politics, some more mobby and strong hand,
Speaker 1: strong handed to basically control New York for a very
Speaker 1: long period of time. I'm not nostalgic for Tammany Hall.
Speaker 1: That was you know, we're talking that was corrupt party
Speaker 1: politic bosses, et cetera, et cetera. But they knew how
Speaker 1: to mobilize votes. They knew how to get to people,
Speaker 1: not in the mob way, but in the actual, you know,
Speaker 1: mobilizing support way. And you know, I think that we
Speaker 1: are now in this moment where there seems to be
Speaker 1: just a lack of clear direction of how to get
Speaker 1: that popular appeal and what direction to take to actually
Speaker 1: be able to attain the levels of popularity that are
Speaker 1: needed to win elections, to get candidates who are then
Speaker 1: viable not just on a state but on a national level,
Speaker 1: right to actually kind of create the next generation of
Speaker 1: party leaders and figure out, you know, what does the
Speaker 1: future of the party actually look like. And you know,
Speaker 1: we've talked a lot about how the Kamala Harris campaign
Speaker 1: just completely failed to do this, and U Nate actually
Speaker 1: just had a newsletter out last week, I believe about
Speaker 1: Mayor Pete and his appeal or lack thereof among different demographics.
Speaker 1: It seems like there is a vacuum there. And if
Speaker 1: you remember, you know, when we talk about the future
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party, the person who we're talking about
Speaker 1: today well, partially Eric Adams. He was once that face, right,
Speaker 1: people thought that someone like Adams could be the future
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party. People were so excited when he
Speaker 1: was elected, and like that didn't go over so well.
Speaker 1: How long did it take for him to appoint his
Speaker 1: brother to the police, Like less than twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: not literally, but it was just like a few days
Speaker 1: after he'd gotten elected. I mean the corruption stuff started
Speaker 1: happening just immediately immediately upon election, and that did not
Speaker 1: go the way that the Democratic Party thought that it would.
Speaker 1: But you know, if people don't remember, like Eric Adams
Speaker 1: was not always a disgraced politician. There was like a
Speaker 1: history of a lot of support and enthusiasm and excitement
Speaker 1: about him as a candidate.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wrote a tweet that people like the resurface
Speaker 2: in times about like, oh, I think Eric Adams is
Speaker 2: one of the one of the five or ten people
Speaker 2: most likely to have a bright future in the president
Speaker 2: and the Democratic Party, Right, And then the next tweet
Speaker 2: was like, by the way, it's because he's Hiberia, so
Speaker 2: it might not work out, but it might work out.
Speaker 2: People love throwing that back, right, and it's like they
Speaker 2: actually they don't actually quote the second tweet, it's all
Speaker 2: out of context, but you know whatever, It's the fucking Internet,
Speaker 2: so who cares. But yeah, I was one of those
Speaker 2: people who thought that, like, Okay, this is interesting because
Speaker 2: you have a black candidate who was pretty moderate, especially
Speaker 2: on issues like policing where Democrats had moved too far
Speaker 2: to the left of New York has never been quite
Speaker 2: as woke about police stuff as some other cities. Right,
Speaker 2: So I had this template was interesting, right that, like,
Speaker 2: you know, given that kind of like the two major
Speaker 2: constituencies in the Democratic Party were are voters of color.
Speaker 2: I don't know how I feel about that term, but
Speaker 2: black what is especially Hispanic Asian American right? And then
Speaker 2: progressive liberals within this house, we believe yard science as
Speaker 2: the other major coalition partner. Like I thought, maybe like
Speaker 2: a minority candidate who's more moderate could interestingly kind of
Speaker 2: like appeal to to both and might also you know
Speaker 2: one thing that I think is born out by the
Speaker 2: literature but by anecdotal experience, who is that like a
Speaker 2: woman or a minority candidate tends to read as being
Speaker 2: more liberal than they are. Right, people are applying priors
Speaker 2: and Adams kind of overcame that with the x cop
Speaker 2: thing and just like like no would mistake although he
Speaker 2: had pronouns in his bio on Twitter, but no one
Speaker 2: would mistake him for like a far left Yeah, okay, right,
Speaker 2: And I thought that was an interesting combination for a
Speaker 2: party looking for, uh, for moderates. Aren't this kind of
Speaker 2: cookie cutter, white person type of thing?
Speaker 1: Oh? Absolutely? And then he had you know, he also
Speaker 1: always stressed that he had working classroots, right, which he did,
Speaker 1: so that was kind of another appealing thing where it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, X cop more more towards the conservative side,
Speaker 1: but man, you know, man of the people, kind of
Speaker 1: more populist some of the appeals that we see working
Speaker 1: from you know, Donald Trump, right, and and the kind
Speaker 1: of the the maga like appeals he had that he
Speaker 1: had the police, he had the minority. And yes, Nate,
Speaker 1: there actually are some good data points, there's good literature
Speaker 1: on this that people do make certain assumptions about how
Speaker 1: liberal or conservative you are based on how you look.
Speaker 1: So if people looked at the two of us and
Speaker 1: just saw photographs of us and didn't know anything about us,
Speaker 1: they would assume that you were much more conservative than
Speaker 1: I am. That's not right, like it's it doesn't. Actually,
Speaker 1: these are not things that are born out in reality.
Speaker 1: But people use incorrect data assumptions all the time, right,
Speaker 1: snap judgments when you see someone and so yes, your
Speaker 1: your your point about the fact that that made him
Speaker 1: seem like he'd be more liberal, more attractive to liberals,
Speaker 1: is correct? You know who was?
Speaker 2: Who was? I another you would have a weak spot
Speaker 2: for Turkish airlines air mile. I mean, like, I look,
Speaker 2: I would hold out for I've never found trinket airlines.
Speaker 2: I'm sure it's nice, right, I would hold out for
Speaker 2: fucking Emirates or Qatar or something, right. I mean you're
Speaker 2: selling you a little cheap there.
Speaker 1: I mean, I've never I've never flown Emirates, but I
Speaker 1: have heard that it's really really nice. And I almost
Speaker 1: flew in Emirates once to a speaking engagement, and I
Speaker 1: was I didn't really want to do the speaking engagement
Speaker 1: and it was going to be really disruptive, but I
Speaker 1: was really excited about flying Emirates first class.
Speaker 2: I got upgraded. When tim on Emirates they upgrade, they're like,
Speaker 2: here's a I know, maybe they're trying to improve relations
Speaker 2: with the Jews or some.
Speaker 1: I've seen it. Maybe you and I would be Maybe
Speaker 1: you and I would make corrupt politicians. Maybe all it
Speaker 1: would take would be a few upgrades, and all of
Speaker 1: a sudden we'd have corruption scandals of our own as
Speaker 1: we took the mayoral office. But yeah, what do we
Speaker 1: you know, I think that if we're if we're talking about,
Speaker 1: you know, back back to kind of the decision to
Speaker 1: drop out. Now, I you know, my gut feeling is
Speaker 1: that this really isn't going to change the race much, right,
Speaker 1: that it was. The timing of the exit and the
Speaker 1: tenor of the exit makes it seem that it is
Speaker 1: basically not consequential in terms of the eventual results of
Speaker 1: the election. Do you agree with that or do you
Speaker 1: think that I'm under selling it a little bit. That's
Speaker 1: just my gut reaction based on everything we've talked about.
Speaker 2: I don't think you're understand I mean, look the math,
Speaker 2: Zoraim's ahead about twenty points with everybody running, right, Adams
Speaker 2: had about nine percent, right, So if you take the
Speaker 2: whole nine and give it to Quormo, then that closes
Speaker 2: the guests steps at two eleven, which would start to
Speaker 2: be a more manageable gap. Right. However, I'll probably get
Speaker 2: two thirds of it, So it winds up like reducing
Speaker 2: zornzly to fifteen points, and like fifteen points is a
Speaker 2: sizable edge. We still have as of the time we're speaking, Maria,
Speaker 2: we still have five and a half weeks to go.
Speaker 2: The whole World Series of Poker is almost as long, right,
Speaker 2: there's still there's still a while, yes, but yeah.
Speaker 1: There's a time for a one outer night.
Speaker 2: I don't think I think he's trying to an inside straight.
Speaker 2: I think we're using that fucking correctly. That analogy, I
Speaker 2: mean has odds at polemarker to fourteen percent, and my
Speaker 2: newsletter day I said I probably tweaked those down to
Speaker 2: ten percent.
Speaker 1: There.
Speaker 2: I think prey dependent on Sleiwad dropping out or something.
Speaker 2: We're at the zone where like this is not in
Speaker 2: the statistical or practical margin of error, right, if Sleeva
Speaker 2: drops out, then it becomes actually close. Okay, but you
Speaker 2: need like a change in the narrative or something that
Speaker 2: like you know, if there were you know, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, the problem is like a lot of things
Speaker 2: that would be like October surprises would be like like
Speaker 2: what if Trump sends the National Guard to New York.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that would help Cuomo, right, I think
Speaker 2: that Zori, You're like, this is bad blahlah blah. Resistance
Speaker 2: hashtag help him potentially, you know what I mean?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was actually gonna ask, like, you know, do
Speaker 1: we do we think, like, can there be an X
Speaker 1: fact or October surprise type of thing that changes the odds?
Speaker 1: Obviously this is speculative, but what are polymarkets odds of
Speaker 1: SLIWA dropping out?
Speaker 2: About sixteen percent? I mean, there's no real reason to
Speaker 2: drop out. He won the it was uncontested domination. He
Speaker 2: won there a nomination far and square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he won. And he said that he's not like
Speaker 1: he has said multiple times that he has not dropped.
Speaker 1: He is not going to drop out. I mean that
Speaker 1: said so did atoms up until the point where he
Speaker 1: dropped out.
Speaker 2: Well, his sons are different. He gets to be on
Speaker 2: TV a whole bunch, and he's run for many things
Speaker 2: many times. He's a founder of the Guardian Angels. I
Speaker 2: guess he's trying to build support for his cause. Actually
Speaker 2: kind of an interesting guy, uh, not as conservatives you
Speaker 2: might expect. I mean, he's kind of a typical New
Speaker 2: Yorker and like on some of like the LGBTQ rights,
Speaker 2: you know, kind of slightly woke combined with being quite
Speaker 2: conservative on crime and other subjects. Right, it's a certain
Speaker 2: type of New Yorker and he I don't think he
Speaker 2: beats orin, but like he's been overshadowed by the Cuomo
Speaker 2: Adams drama.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it seems to me that his calculus is very,
Speaker 1: very different from Adams's in the sense that, as you
Speaker 1: pointed out, and you know, for Adams, being defeated can
Speaker 1: cause embarrassment and can potentially, you know, for his future
Speaker 1: political prospects. Not the corruption or bribery or those charges,
Speaker 1: but the fact that he you know, lost the election
Speaker 1: is what's going to do him in politically. So for him,
Speaker 1: you know, it's that kind of calculus. But for Sliwa,
Speaker 1: the calculus is actually mostly upside right right now, he's
Speaker 1: getting media exposure. It's not negative media exposure. He's getting
Speaker 1: to speak, he's getting to voice opinions. Like, it's actually
Speaker 1: completely different up until you know, he probably knows he's
Speaker 1: not going to win, and it doesn't matter, right because
Speaker 1: he is setting up for a better political future for
Speaker 1: himself by staying in the race. And so the game
Speaker 1: theory I think just is not there for him. Why
Speaker 1: in the world would he drop out and give his
Speaker 1: votes to Cuomo or to anyone else. That being said,
Speaker 1: if he doesn't drop out, then Adams's decision to drop
Speaker 1: out basically changes nothing in terms of you know, in
Speaker 1: terms of our calculus of who is going to win
Speaker 1: the race. Again, we don't know if there's going to
Speaker 1: be an X factor. Maybe someone is busy out there,
Speaker 1: you know, preparing to drop a bomb bombshell news item.
Speaker 2: You already would have dropped you I would have dropped
Speaker 2: it though, right in a two can eight race it's
Speaker 2: a little different, right, but you would have dropped the bombshell.
Speaker 2: And also you have the primary, and like ran in
Speaker 2: the primary, Zoran kind of came not quite out of nowhere, right,
Speaker 2: but it was a relatively quick rise. But like it's
Speaker 2: been a fucking slow Like, why we have this fucking
Speaker 2: primary in June for a general election in November. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure I understand that you need that much time
Speaker 2: to campaign anyway, It's crazy. You know, the June timing
Speaker 2: is supposed to help incumbents because all the rich people
Speaker 2: are out in the Hampton's or Vermont Maria, for example.
Speaker 1: Wait, is that true? Is that the reason for.
Speaker 2: The June I believe that's that's something that people who
Speaker 2: have knowledge about city politics tend to believe, is my understanding.
Speaker 2: I phrase that oddly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, No, I get what you were trying to say.
Speaker 1: I did not know that. I was always curious about
Speaker 1: why the timing was what it was. But I guess
Speaker 1: that makes sense. And we'll be back right after this.
Speaker 2: By the way, Yeah, you alluded to before, like Cuomo
Speaker 2: Adams were kind of counting on the machine type turnout
Speaker 2: where where you're good at getting your voters out. The
Speaker 2: problem actually for Cuomo in the primary was that like
Speaker 2: turnout was quite high relative to mayoral primaries, right, So
Speaker 2: he probably got the voters he expected to get. But
Speaker 2: Zorin brought up people that had not voted in these
Speaker 2: primaries before.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Zarn in a way was able to activate
Speaker 1: that machine better than the old Democratic as stafleablishment could.
Speaker 2: Well, But like the machine is, the machine is kind
Speaker 2: of fucking, kind of fucking.
Speaker 1: Broken, exactly. No one likes the exactly. That's that's the point.
Speaker 1: So you know Zora as the individual.
Speaker 2: He is one of those McDonald's ice cream makers. It's like, oh,
Speaker 2: you've always broken broken, except there's no scam to get
Speaker 2: the repair guy in.
Speaker 1: Apparently there's a website that actually tracks those McDonald's machines
Speaker 1: and you can see where the ones, you know, it's
Speaker 1: basically all broken, but where the functioning ones are. I
Speaker 1: found that quite amusing. Never tried the ice cream at McDonald's,
Speaker 1: but I for some reason know this little bit of
Speaker 1: information and find it very funny. But yes, that's a
Speaker 1: good analogy. I think that the you know, the ice
Speaker 1: cream machine is definitely broken in most locations in New York,
Speaker 1: and Zoron was able to come out with his you know,
Speaker 1: mister softy little cart and blare his song. If we're gonna,
Speaker 1: if we're going to continue this analogy.
Speaker 2: Do you ever eat chain fast food?
Speaker 1: No? I don't often. The only so I've never I've
Speaker 1: had McDonald's fries. That's the only thing I've ever eaten
Speaker 1: at McDonald's.
Speaker 2: You've never had a big mac.
Speaker 1: No, I've never had a big mac, and I've never American.
Speaker 1: I am, I am what I've never You've never had
Speaker 1: a big Mack. I've never had a big mac.
Speaker 2: Nate would you have one, can still be friends? Would
Speaker 2: you have one?
Speaker 1: I mean, if forced to, I might try a bite
Speaker 1: just to say I've tried it, but no, I don't's kind.
Speaker 2: Of a good sandwich, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't really want one.
Speaker 2: I like it's pretty good.
Speaker 1: I like burgers, but you know, I'm more of like
Speaker 1: a Minetta Tavern, black Pipelburger type of person.
Speaker 2: So you've never been like an airport where like because
Speaker 2: they always have the fucking like they have the local
Speaker 2: fucking concession. That's some terrible fucking airport specific version, right,
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of You got the McDonald's, You've
Speaker 2: got the Wendy's at the airport.
Speaker 1: I've never been to Days. I've never been inside a Wendy's.
Speaker 1: I've never been to Burger King.
Speaker 2: You've never been inside a wedding.
Speaker 1: I've never been inside a Burger King. I've never eaten
Speaker 1: anything from either one of those establish men's never been
Speaker 1: to Arby's. I have been to In and Out. I've
Speaker 1: eaten an In and Out Burger, and I've eaten shake Shack.
Speaker 1: But I went to shakeshaf course back when Shakeshack was
Speaker 1: in the park. You know when the line was like
Speaker 1: all all the way around. I you know, I still did.
Speaker 1: That was before I lived in New York, you know,
Speaker 1: I was. I was a teenager when it opened, and
Speaker 1: I remember being so excited. I came to New York
Speaker 1: and I stood in that line for I don't know
Speaker 1: how long to get a shake shack, burger and concrete
Speaker 1: and that was I think, yeah, that and in and
Speaker 1: out is an in and out is I think more
Speaker 1: more fast foody. That is the closest that I have
Speaker 1: come to trying fast food burgers night five guys. I
Speaker 1: tried five guys when five guys first came to New York.
Speaker 1: Does that count?
Speaker 2: It's the higher end you got to get into, like
Speaker 2: the like anything beyond like Wendy's is too high end. Right,
Speaker 2: by the way, my own stock in Shake Shock because
Speaker 2: I'm like, they get people, They get people like you,
Speaker 2: Maria to eat fast food, and that seems like a
Speaker 2: good business model, you know what I mean. People would
Speaker 2: never be caught dead sitting foot to McDonald's, right, They're like, oh,
Speaker 2: Shake Shock, this is this is premium. This is premium.
Speaker 2: Have you had Chipotle?
Speaker 1: Yes, I have had Chippotle.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, I mean that's that's in the premium zone, sill,
Speaker 2: I think, But like, yes, anyway.
Speaker 1: I have had Chipotle, uh, and it was actually I
Speaker 1: think Chipotle would be my go to if I had
Speaker 1: to go to, like if I had to pick a
Speaker 1: fast food place, I think Chipotle has the highest quality,
Speaker 1: freshest ingredients out of out of the things, that.
Speaker 2: Chipotle is the restaurant I've probably eaten at the most
Speaker 2: times really in my life, right, yeah, because like I
Speaker 2: used to like fucking play you know, when I left
Speaker 2: my consulting job, I played poker online for a few years, right,
Speaker 2: and I'd always, I don't know, I'd stay up all
Speaker 2: night and then be like fucking famished in the afternoon.
Speaker 2: I live like equidistant Chicago between like three Chipotles, and
Speaker 2: so I would like diversify which are the three Chipotles
Speaker 2: I went to? Just like going there so often that
Speaker 2: it felt like a little bit, a little bit embarrassing.
Speaker 1: All right, So we went from atoms to our fast
Speaker 1: food ratings, from.
Speaker 2: Our New England ratings to our fast food rating.
Speaker 1: So let's let's give Eric Adams a rating if you
Speaker 1: were a fast food chain, what would be oh to
Speaker 1: wrap this up.
Speaker 2: Like what's I mean, maybe like a little So here's
Speaker 2: here's irony. I don't think that New York City is
Speaker 2: doing so badly at all, really, right, Our crime is
Speaker 2: lower than incomparable cities. People have left. That part's not great,
Speaker 2: but they've kind of left most of these cities. We
Speaker 2: have a couple of new airports that have come online.
Speaker 2: We got a congestion pricing and a lot of this
Speaker 2: is not Adams is doing right, but you know, property
Speaker 2: values are doing more than fine. Right, there are still
Speaker 2: housing stortages. But like, yeah, if you ask people kind
Speaker 2: of how is New York doing? I mean, people are
Speaker 2: inherently grumpy in the United States, right, But like so
Speaker 2: if people are punishing him for the for the corruption, yeah,
Speaker 2: as a mayor, I don't know, it seems okay, right
Speaker 2: if people people have trouble decoupling the personal stuff from
Speaker 2: like the legislation government stuff, understandably all.
Speaker 1: Right, So in total, then what would he be? Is
Speaker 1: he a McDonald's, Is he a Wendy's? Is he at Chipotle?
Speaker 2: No, he's like a little you know, little mom and
Speaker 2: pop Italian American place where they're still you know, they're
Speaker 2: not gonna take credit cards still, Maria, Why why not? Well,
Speaker 2: you know, maybe they're not paying their full a lotment
Speaker 2: of taxes. Yeah, they have loyal customers. There's some special
Speaker 2: rooms in the back. We're not quite sure what's going
Speaker 2: on there. Right. The food's pretty good. You gotta stick
Speaker 2: to the basics. You gotta stick to the chicken parm
Speaker 2: you gotta get the fried netballs and things like that. Right.
Speaker 2: You don't want to a venture too far, I feel,
Speaker 2: but it's pretty good.
Speaker 1: So if we were going chain, then he would be
Speaker 1: closest to like a siborro anti.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I've never eaten a fucking saborro. Well
Speaker 2: it's Italian, Maria. I am a respector of Italian American cuisine.
Speaker 2: Saborro is not meaningfully Italian.
Speaker 1: Okay, okay, fair enough, All right, Well you heard it
Speaker 1: here first, guys, Eric Adams, small mob and pop Italian.
Speaker 1: Definitely not Soborro siborro.
Speaker 2: Let us.
Speaker 1: Know what you think of the show. Reach out to
Speaker 1: us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. Risky Business
Speaker 1: is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool
Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced
Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia,
Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our
Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us
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