1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:29,004 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:29,044 --> 00:00:32,524 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm Nate Silver. 3 00:00:33,484 --> 00:00:35,564 Speaker 2: Today in the show, look, we're both in New York 4 00:00:35,604 --> 00:00:38,484 Speaker 2: City at least part time. We're going to talk about 5 00:00:38,484 --> 00:00:41,124 Speaker 2: the New York mayor all raise Eric Adams, the current 6 00:00:41,244 --> 00:00:43,564 Speaker 2: mayor incurment mayor of New York dropped out this weekend. 7 00:00:43,764 --> 00:00:45,924 Speaker 2: We're talking about the implications for the race, talk about 8 00:00:45,964 --> 00:00:48,684 Speaker 2: the game theory behind Eric adams decision, and also a 9 00:00:48,684 --> 00:00:51,724 Speaker 2: little bit about this vacuum of leadership that has kind 10 00:00:51,724 --> 00:00:54,684 Speaker 2: of compelled a surprising candidates or I'm I'm doning to 11 00:00:54,724 --> 00:00:57,484 Speaker 2: be the very likely in my opinion, next mayor of 12 00:00:57,604 --> 00:00:58,004 Speaker 2: New York. 13 00:00:58,324 --> 00:01:01,204 Speaker 1: Absolutely, and well we'll, obviously, because this is Risky Business, 14 00:01:01,284 --> 00:01:03,164 Speaker 1: get some game theory in there, the game theory of 15 00:01:03,164 --> 00:01:07,044 Speaker 1: the decision, the timing, all of those fun things. So yeah, 16 00:01:07,164 --> 00:01:15,324 Speaker 1: well we're going to have politics centric show for you today. 17 00:01:15,364 --> 00:01:18,844 Speaker 1: Before we do that, though, Nate Happy Fall. It is 18 00:01:19,004 --> 00:01:22,844 Speaker 1: officially autumn, by the way, so now we're recording this Monday, 19 00:01:22,884 --> 00:01:25,484 Speaker 1: September twenty ninth. It is hot as fuck in New 20 00:01:25,564 --> 00:01:28,124 Speaker 1: York City. It is muggy, it is. 21 00:01:28,164 --> 00:01:30,924 Speaker 2: Great I mean here in Manhattan, Maria, it's a whole 22 00:01:30,924 --> 00:01:34,524 Speaker 2: different micro climate than your neck of the woods. But yeah, 23 00:01:34,524 --> 00:01:35,564 Speaker 2: it's been a little muggy. 24 00:01:35,724 --> 00:01:39,964 Speaker 1: It's muggy, it's sticky, but yet it's officially fall. I 25 00:01:40,124 --> 00:01:44,924 Speaker 1: was in Vermont this weekend leaf watching. That was beautiful. 26 00:01:45,204 --> 00:01:48,404 Speaker 1: But I have to say, you know, whatever, whatever the causes, 27 00:01:48,484 --> 00:01:51,524 Speaker 1: climate change, et cetera, the leaf colors are much more 28 00:01:51,604 --> 00:01:53,924 Speaker 1: muted this year, and by the end of the weekend 29 00:01:54,004 --> 00:01:57,164 Speaker 1: they started almost like everything started falling. I was like, wait, 30 00:01:57,164 --> 00:01:59,564 Speaker 1: this isn't supposed to be peak leafs yet, and yet 31 00:01:59,644 --> 00:02:01,364 Speaker 1: here we are. But it was still beautiful. 32 00:02:01,644 --> 00:02:05,204 Speaker 2: What if climate change made like fawful each better, would 33 00:02:05,244 --> 00:02:05,684 Speaker 2: you favor it? 34 00:02:05,764 --> 00:02:09,084 Speaker 1: Then? Yes? Absolutely? No, please please? 35 00:02:09,204 --> 00:02:13,364 Speaker 2: Does it like pollution make sunsets better? Is that a thing? 36 00:02:14,324 --> 00:02:19,004 Speaker 1: Yes? Yes, mog makes uh smog makes sunsets more beautiful 37 00:02:19,044 --> 00:02:23,564 Speaker 1: because it filters the colors in a funny way, and 38 00:02:23,684 --> 00:02:28,204 Speaker 1: so so yes, absolutely, we have we have some silver 39 00:02:29,524 --> 00:02:35,084 Speaker 1: Nate in terms of risky business business. On the drive 40 00:02:35,484 --> 00:02:39,684 Speaker 1: back from Vermont, driving down this bucolic road you know 41 00:02:39,964 --> 00:02:43,484 Speaker 1: about to like exit and get on the highway, open 42 00:02:43,564 --> 00:02:48,244 Speaker 1: windows because it's nice fall weather. A fucking wasp flies 43 00:02:48,404 --> 00:02:51,404 Speaker 1: into the car, straight into my arm and bites me. 44 00:02:52,564 --> 00:02:55,404 Speaker 1: I got stung for the first time, and I. 45 00:02:55,324 --> 00:02:56,004 Speaker 2: Don't know how long. 46 00:02:56,044 --> 00:02:58,644 Speaker 1: I have no idea I was while I was watching, 47 00:02:58,684 --> 00:03:00,164 Speaker 1: I was like, I have no idea. If I'm allergic, 48 00:03:00,204 --> 00:03:01,564 Speaker 1: I had better drill because I have a lot of 49 00:03:01,564 --> 00:03:04,804 Speaker 1: other allergies. So I was like, okay, I'm ready. And 50 00:03:04,844 --> 00:03:07,564 Speaker 1: I'm in the middle of nowhere, Vermont with no cell reception. 51 00:03:07,684 --> 00:03:10,244 Speaker 1: So I was like, I sure, hope I'm not because 52 00:03:10,764 --> 00:03:14,284 Speaker 1: this ain't good anyway, I'm not allergic. Everything's good. It 53 00:03:14,444 --> 00:03:17,804 Speaker 1: just there was swelling. It really hurt, but so yeah, 54 00:03:17,884 --> 00:03:19,804 Speaker 1: wasps stung me and I thought flew out of the 55 00:03:19,844 --> 00:03:23,804 Speaker 1: car about two out hours later on the highway in 56 00:03:23,844 --> 00:03:26,444 Speaker 1: the middle of the highway, no rest stops in sight. 57 00:03:27,084 --> 00:03:30,204 Speaker 1: The fucker starts buzzing around in the car. The wasp 58 00:03:30,284 --> 00:03:33,244 Speaker 1: did not leave the car. So nay, risky business question, 59 00:03:33,444 --> 00:03:36,724 Speaker 1: risk calculus. What do you do you are on a 60 00:03:36,804 --> 00:03:39,724 Speaker 1: highway driving like seventy five eighty miles an hour and 61 00:03:39,764 --> 00:03:43,084 Speaker 1: there's a wasp flying around like you can't turn off 62 00:03:43,164 --> 00:03:45,284 Speaker 1: because you're on a highway. What are you supposed to do? 63 00:03:45,324 --> 00:03:48,524 Speaker 1: Because that is you know it can't just go on. 64 00:03:48,844 --> 00:03:51,364 Speaker 2: Okay, first of them, Ma, Ria, it's Vermont, right, you're 65 00:03:51,404 --> 00:03:55,964 Speaker 2: not like, it's not like multiple fucking gas station with me. 66 00:03:56,524 --> 00:03:58,564 Speaker 1: This is no, no, no, This is now two hours later. 67 00:03:58,644 --> 00:04:00,884 Speaker 1: This is now on the highway and either Connecticut. I 68 00:04:00,924 --> 00:04:02,884 Speaker 1: think it's in Connecticut. Let's call it Connecticut. 69 00:04:03,004 --> 00:04:06,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, pull over to the nearest gas station. 70 00:04:06,684 --> 00:04:09,044 Speaker 1: There was none. Yeah, the nearest gas station was in 71 00:04:09,164 --> 00:04:11,844 Speaker 1: like twenty miles Connecticut. 72 00:04:12,564 --> 00:04:15,604 Speaker 2: It's the most densely populated state pretty much. 73 00:04:15,684 --> 00:04:18,004 Speaker 1: Right. There's a part where it says like this is 74 00:04:18,044 --> 00:04:21,324 Speaker 1: the last rest stop for the next whatever many miles. 75 00:04:21,364 --> 00:04:24,284 Speaker 1: That's we had passed that point, no. 76 00:04:25,404 --> 00:04:27,164 Speaker 2: End of the road. Put your hazards on and wait 77 00:04:27,164 --> 00:04:29,684 Speaker 2: for the right Yeah. Is that more risky than a 78 00:04:29,804 --> 00:04:32,444 Speaker 2: wasp sting? I think it's probably a close call. I 79 00:04:32,444 --> 00:04:33,804 Speaker 2: think it's a close I was trying to. 80 00:04:33,724 --> 00:04:36,404 Speaker 1: Do the risk calculus. I was like, this thing is terrifying, 81 00:04:36,484 --> 00:04:38,964 Speaker 1: like if it flies at you, the risk of swerving 82 00:04:39,004 --> 00:04:42,764 Speaker 1: and getting into an accident anyway, ended up yet being 83 00:04:42,804 --> 00:04:46,004 Speaker 1: able to pull over and get the Wasp out of 84 00:04:46,044 --> 00:04:50,964 Speaker 1: the car. Superhero moment, Nate superhero moment. But that was actually, 85 00:04:51,004 --> 00:04:52,284 Speaker 1: you know, it's one of those things you don't really 86 00:04:52,324 --> 00:04:55,004 Speaker 1: think about in your risk calculus when you're talking about 87 00:04:55,444 --> 00:04:57,364 Speaker 1: driving in all of these things. But that was my 88 00:04:57,924 --> 00:05:00,004 Speaker 1: I don't know why. Maybe Vermont got mad that I 89 00:05:00,044 --> 00:05:02,044 Speaker 1: didn't love its leaves this year, but it was kind 90 00:05:02,044 --> 00:05:04,284 Speaker 1: of a final fucking from Vermont on my way out 91 00:05:04,284 --> 00:05:05,284 Speaker 1: of the stay. 92 00:05:06,764 --> 00:05:10,244 Speaker 2: Rank the New England states from one to six in 93 00:05:10,324 --> 00:05:12,484 Speaker 2: terms of what goodness? 94 00:05:13,844 --> 00:05:16,204 Speaker 1: Oh man, Well, I don't know. I'm from Massachusetts. You know, 95 00:05:16,244 --> 00:05:19,484 Speaker 1: I grew up there, So I'm gonna put Massachusetts first 96 00:05:19,604 --> 00:05:23,884 Speaker 1: because my family is there. I went to school there. 97 00:05:24,164 --> 00:05:26,804 Speaker 1: You know. There are lots of things about Massachusetts I 98 00:05:26,804 --> 00:05:29,764 Speaker 1: don't like. I think that the term masshole is very apt. 99 00:05:30,124 --> 00:05:32,004 Speaker 1: There are lots of things about Boston I don't like, 100 00:05:32,004 --> 00:05:34,524 Speaker 1: and yet Boston's a beautiful you know, it's a city. Still, 101 00:05:35,604 --> 00:05:39,924 Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna put let me see Maine. I 102 00:05:39,924 --> 00:05:43,084 Speaker 1: think maybe number two. All the mosquitoes might put Maine 103 00:05:43,084 --> 00:05:44,124 Speaker 1: at number three. I don't know. 104 00:05:45,084 --> 00:05:47,364 Speaker 2: Maine is such a fucking clear number one, Like, what 105 00:05:47,404 --> 00:05:48,244 Speaker 2: are you even talking about? 106 00:05:49,524 --> 00:05:52,524 Speaker 1: Maine is gorgeous, But the mosquitoes killed me, So I'm 107 00:05:52,524 --> 00:05:55,924 Speaker 1: gonna put at number two with an asterisk. Fucking the Mosquitoes. 108 00:05:56,964 --> 00:06:00,764 Speaker 1: Let's see, I would put Rhode Island probably number three. 109 00:06:00,884 --> 00:06:01,644 Speaker 1: It's small, but. 110 00:06:01,684 --> 00:06:04,844 Speaker 2: Mighty weird, weird state. Yes, it's a weird set. 111 00:06:05,044 --> 00:06:06,844 Speaker 1: It is a weird state, but it's it has a 112 00:06:06,844 --> 00:06:10,004 Speaker 1: lot of really beautiful stuff, lots of interesting things. Providence 113 00:06:10,004 --> 00:06:12,324 Speaker 1: in Newport. You know, I'm a I'm a fan. 114 00:06:12,724 --> 00:06:18,204 Speaker 2: Let's see Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, so Vermont. Maybe Vermont's 115 00:06:18,244 --> 00:06:18,724 Speaker 2: number four. 116 00:06:18,884 --> 00:06:21,564 Speaker 1: I guess no, No, I love Vermont. I think it's beautiful. 117 00:06:21,644 --> 00:06:23,884 Speaker 1: I think they are people there can be like. It's 118 00:06:23,884 --> 00:06:27,124 Speaker 1: a really weird state as well, and obviously I have 119 00:06:27,164 --> 00:06:31,684 Speaker 1: a personal family connection to Vermont and like for that reason, 120 00:06:31,724 --> 00:06:33,404 Speaker 1: I do love it. So maybe we put Maybe I 121 00:06:33,404 --> 00:06:37,004 Speaker 1: actually put Vermont before Rhode Island. New Hampshire is going 122 00:06:37,044 --> 00:06:39,124 Speaker 1: to be dead last. I hate New Hampshire and I 123 00:06:39,124 --> 00:06:41,764 Speaker 1: hate Connecticut. Connecticut and New Hampshire I kind of tied 124 00:06:41,764 --> 00:06:42,204 Speaker 1: for last. 125 00:06:44,324 --> 00:06:47,284 Speaker 2: What about you day, Yeah, look, Maine Maine is number one. 126 00:06:47,404 --> 00:06:49,764 Speaker 2: Then it gets more difficult. I mean, I like, I 127 00:06:49,804 --> 00:06:54,844 Speaker 2: agree that the bottom tier has to be Connecticut, and 128 00:06:55,284 --> 00:06:57,244 Speaker 2: I think has to be Connecticut. I like, I don't 129 00:06:57,284 --> 00:07:00,524 Speaker 2: dislike Connecticut. In fact, my fucking family, my dad's like 130 00:07:00,564 --> 00:07:03,084 Speaker 2: from Connecticut. So maybe I'm gonna put Yeah, I just 131 00:07:03,084 --> 00:07:05,324 Speaker 2: don't want to be insulting. I mean, maybe put my 132 00:07:05,604 --> 00:07:06,124 Speaker 2: I mean I have. 133 00:07:06,084 --> 00:07:08,684 Speaker 1: Family in Connecticut too. My sister, whom I love dearly, 134 00:07:08,724 --> 00:07:12,044 Speaker 1: were very close. You know. She teaches and her labs 135 00:07:12,044 --> 00:07:15,324 Speaker 1: at Yale, so her family lives in Connecticut. So you know, 136 00:07:15,444 --> 00:07:19,924 Speaker 1: I obviously am not going to be anti Connecticut. I'm 137 00:07:19,924 --> 00:07:22,524 Speaker 1: not anti any state. We're all inclusive here. On the 138 00:07:22,604 --> 00:07:24,684 Speaker 1: Risky Essing the podcast, there's. 139 00:07:24,484 --> 00:07:26,764 Speaker 2: A criteria where if you had to live in a state, 140 00:07:26,844 --> 00:07:28,204 Speaker 2: Let's see, you have to live in that state for 141 00:07:28,284 --> 00:07:31,844 Speaker 2: eleven months out of twelve per year. You're madded thirty 142 00:07:32,324 --> 00:07:34,964 Speaker 2: travel days or whatever, right, and you had to pick 143 00:07:34,964 --> 00:07:38,404 Speaker 2: in New England state. Okay. By that criteria, mass choosets 144 00:07:38,404 --> 00:07:38,924 Speaker 2: would be. 145 00:07:38,844 --> 00:07:40,804 Speaker 1: I'm going to Massachusetts. 146 00:07:40,244 --> 00:07:43,524 Speaker 2: First or second for me? Right, by just overall sentiment, though, 147 00:07:43,564 --> 00:07:46,444 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really you know, Boston is like 148 00:07:46,604 --> 00:07:49,804 Speaker 2: a charming European city without the charm, you know what 149 00:07:49,844 --> 00:07:51,364 Speaker 2: I mean. I like the layout of Boston. 150 00:07:51,604 --> 00:07:54,444 Speaker 1: Hey, I told you I'm not I'm not a Boston apologist. 151 00:07:54,644 --> 00:07:56,964 Speaker 2: I like the sports and I don't like the sports teams, 152 00:07:56,964 --> 00:07:58,964 Speaker 2: but like you know, I would just go and be 153 00:07:59,004 --> 00:08:01,084 Speaker 2: a fucking I would just watch so much fucking sports 154 00:08:01,084 --> 00:08:03,884 Speaker 2: if I lived in Massachusetts and go to the Encore 155 00:08:04,364 --> 00:08:05,004 Speaker 2: play poker. 156 00:08:05,324 --> 00:08:07,484 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think that Boston would actually be a 157 00:08:07,524 --> 00:08:09,404 Speaker 1: good place for you, for like, if you were forced 158 00:08:09,524 --> 00:08:11,844 Speaker 1: to live somewhere for a little while, I think you'd, 159 00:08:11,964 --> 00:08:15,124 Speaker 1: you know, because of the sports, and it has good sushi. Nate, 160 00:08:15,364 --> 00:08:18,924 Speaker 1: you know, no, Maria, I would, Maria, Maria. 161 00:08:20,404 --> 00:08:24,524 Speaker 2: The food in New England is a problem. Literally, fucking 162 00:08:24,884 --> 00:08:26,484 Speaker 2: who is a Graham, you know, the guy who had 163 00:08:26,524 --> 00:08:28,724 Speaker 2: been in the gram Cracker. He lives like, we don't 164 00:08:28,724 --> 00:08:32,484 Speaker 2: want to have food with fucking flavor in it, right food? 165 00:08:32,524 --> 00:08:35,524 Speaker 1: And the food in New England is, yes, an absolute 166 00:08:35,524 --> 00:08:39,964 Speaker 1: problem everywhere, but at least, you know, at least we 167 00:08:40,004 --> 00:08:42,524 Speaker 1: can get decent sushi and Boston. Like in Vermont, I 168 00:08:42,564 --> 00:08:45,844 Speaker 1: really wanted sushi, like you do not get sushi anywhere 169 00:08:45,884 --> 00:08:48,924 Speaker 1: near where I was in Vermont. Want to die, I 170 00:08:49,004 --> 00:08:51,484 Speaker 1: just I was in a sushi mood. I didn't want 171 00:08:51,484 --> 00:08:54,644 Speaker 1: sushi and Vermont. I wanted sushi in the abstract and 172 00:08:54,684 --> 00:08:58,724 Speaker 1: that's not possible anyway. My WASP staying is getting better. 173 00:08:59,084 --> 00:09:03,684 Speaker 1: Fuck wasps. I hate them. I hope I never see 174 00:09:03,724 --> 00:09:09,244 Speaker 1: one again, although obviously I will. Let's move on to politics. 175 00:09:09,604 --> 00:09:12,844 Speaker 1: So we had some news over the weekend, and again 176 00:09:12,844 --> 00:09:14,684 Speaker 1: we're recording this on Monday. You're going to hear it 177 00:09:14,724 --> 00:09:17,484 Speaker 1: on Wednesday, so if there are any developments in the meantime, 178 00:09:17,484 --> 00:09:21,084 Speaker 1: we will not have caught them. But Eric Adams announced 179 00:09:21,124 --> 00:09:25,764 Speaker 1: that he was dropping out of the race for mayor 180 00:09:25,924 --> 00:09:28,564 Speaker 1: of New York City. And he did this just a 181 00:09:28,564 --> 00:09:31,884 Speaker 1: few days before, you know, the race already passed the 182 00:09:31,924 --> 00:09:35,404 Speaker 1: deadline for his name to be removed. 183 00:09:34,724 --> 00:09:36,924 Speaker 2: So passed like a while ago. 184 00:09:36,804 --> 00:09:40,364 Speaker 1: A while ago, Okay, So Mayor Adams announced that he 185 00:09:40,524 --> 00:09:43,324 Speaker 1: was dropping out long after the deadline to take his 186 00:09:43,444 --> 00:09:47,044 Speaker 1: name off of the ballot. And it's a pretty historic 187 00:09:47,124 --> 00:09:50,604 Speaker 1: moment because he is going to be then just the 188 00:09:50,644 --> 00:09:54,404 Speaker 1: second mayor to not win re election. 189 00:09:55,404 --> 00:09:56,964 Speaker 2: And is that true because you think of New York 190 00:09:56,964 --> 00:10:00,484 Speaker 2: mayors as having had problematic careers, but I guess they 191 00:10:00,484 --> 00:10:02,004 Speaker 2: tend to I guess they tend to get the re 192 00:10:02,044 --> 00:10:03,284 Speaker 2: election thing, right. 193 00:10:03,804 --> 00:10:07,604 Speaker 1: Yeah. David Dinkins, who was the city's first black mayor, 194 00:10:07,724 --> 00:10:11,244 Speaker 1: lost his reelection bid, and that was the only other 195 00:10:11,364 --> 00:10:12,964 Speaker 1: mayor who did not serve a second. 196 00:10:12,724 --> 00:10:15,844 Speaker 2: Tim Bloomberg changed the rules to run a third time, 197 00:10:16,804 --> 00:10:20,204 Speaker 2: and one actually close than you might have expected. But yeah, 198 00:10:20,244 --> 00:10:25,404 Speaker 2: I guess I mean the Blasio Bloomberg, Rudy Dinkin's one term, 199 00:10:26,124 --> 00:10:30,844 Speaker 2: Ed Katsch, who is Abraham Beam. I was not aware. 200 00:10:31,684 --> 00:10:34,204 Speaker 2: I You're named Abraham Beam. 201 00:10:34,924 --> 00:10:37,724 Speaker 1: Wait, okay, Nate, So if I'm understanding you correctly, Bean 202 00:10:38,124 --> 00:10:39,564 Speaker 1: also didn't win re election. 203 00:10:40,404 --> 00:10:43,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, he left office in nineteen seventy seven. There's no 204 00:10:44,244 --> 00:10:49,044 Speaker 2: Bean Street, I guess anywhere, not well remembered. And there 205 00:10:49,044 --> 00:10:50,324 Speaker 2: are a couple of others in the past. 206 00:10:50,684 --> 00:10:53,884 Speaker 1: Okay, So Adams is the third in modern New York 207 00:10:53,924 --> 00:11:00,404 Speaker 1: City history who has not won reelection. Very small group that, 208 00:11:00,684 --> 00:11:03,044 Speaker 1: you know, seems like it's an accomplishment of a sort 209 00:11:03,124 --> 00:11:04,804 Speaker 1: negative accomplishment in its own right. 210 00:11:04,844 --> 00:11:06,044 Speaker 2: Modern or contemporary. 211 00:11:06,084 --> 00:11:10,684 Speaker 1: Sorry, it's something contemporary contemporary New York City. But yeah, 212 00:11:10,844 --> 00:11:14,484 Speaker 1: it is very notable that he dropped out, and the timing, Nate, 213 00:11:14,524 --> 00:11:19,204 Speaker 1: I think is quite notable as well, because, well, what 214 00:11:19,364 --> 00:11:22,044 Speaker 1: happens now with the votes, Right, we talked in the 215 00:11:22,084 --> 00:11:26,644 Speaker 1: primaries that the primaries were rank choice voting. That is 216 00:11:26,764 --> 00:11:30,724 Speaker 1: not the case right with the general mayoral election. So 217 00:11:30,804 --> 00:11:33,444 Speaker 1: it's not the case that you know, oh you know, 218 00:11:33,484 --> 00:11:35,564 Speaker 1: if you don't get fifty percent, now we're going to 219 00:11:35,964 --> 00:11:38,044 Speaker 1: you know, your your votes are going to go down 220 00:11:38,284 --> 00:11:40,724 Speaker 1: to the next candidate, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 221 00:11:40,844 --> 00:11:43,564 Speaker 1: And Adams when he was stepping down announcing that he 222 00:11:43,684 --> 00:11:45,804 Speaker 1: was going to be withdrawing from the race also did 223 00:11:45,844 --> 00:11:49,204 Speaker 1: something notable, I think when he did not endorse any 224 00:11:49,284 --> 00:11:52,044 Speaker 1: other candidate. Right, normally, when people drop out of a 225 00:11:52,164 --> 00:11:54,804 Speaker 1: race close to the election, when it's you know, an 226 00:11:54,804 --> 00:11:58,604 Speaker 1: election that has so many political spirits inflamed, you want 227 00:11:58,604 --> 00:12:01,164 Speaker 1: your votes to go to someone, right, you want to 228 00:12:01,244 --> 00:12:03,644 Speaker 1: actually make a statement, and you say, you know, I'm 229 00:12:03,724 --> 00:12:06,564 Speaker 1: dropping out, but I think you know Nate Silver is 230 00:12:06,604 --> 00:12:10,484 Speaker 1: your best choice for mayor. And instead he's like, fuck 231 00:12:10,564 --> 00:12:12,964 Speaker 1: Nate Silver, Fuck all these guys. You know, this guy's 232 00:12:12,964 --> 00:12:16,284 Speaker 1: a snake. This Maria person that can't be trusted, she 233 00:12:16,404 --> 00:12:19,804 Speaker 1: changes her mind. You know, everyone sucks. That was kind 234 00:12:19,844 --> 00:12:24,644 Speaker 1: of his speech, not literally but figuratively speaking. And that 235 00:12:24,764 --> 00:12:26,964 Speaker 1: was another interesting choice. So if we're talking about kind 236 00:12:27,004 --> 00:12:30,244 Speaker 1: of the game theory of his decision, what it means 237 00:12:30,284 --> 00:12:34,484 Speaker 1: other than just like I'm out, this is the timing 238 00:12:34,844 --> 00:12:36,644 Speaker 1: and a big fuck you, it's it is a very 239 00:12:36,724 --> 00:12:39,484 Speaker 1: I think he's made some interesting choices. Yeah. 240 00:12:39,564 --> 00:12:42,524 Speaker 2: Look, I've actually tried to model in the context of 241 00:12:42,564 --> 00:12:47,604 Speaker 2: presidential primaries when candidates drop out, and it's fairly product 242 00:12:47,684 --> 00:12:50,764 Speaker 2: They basically drop out when they have no shot, right, 243 00:12:51,044 --> 00:12:52,524 Speaker 2: and then more likely to drop out if they were 244 00:12:52,524 --> 00:12:54,364 Speaker 2: once perceived to have a shot, meaning that they have 245 00:12:54,524 --> 00:12:59,084 Speaker 2: some type of future, but then they fall far behind 246 00:12:59,204 --> 00:13:01,524 Speaker 2: enough in the polls the fundraising guys up. But yeah, 247 00:13:02,164 --> 00:13:08,244 Speaker 2: he had opportunities allegedly to take various lucrative jobs associated 248 00:13:08,244 --> 00:13:10,644 Speaker 2: with the Trump administration. Maybe you'll take one of those eventually, 249 00:13:10,684 --> 00:13:15,564 Speaker 2: but like he was gonna lose, probably finish in fourth place, right, 250 00:13:16,964 --> 00:13:19,764 Speaker 2: and that would have been embarrassing. So that's that's you know, 251 00:13:19,884 --> 00:13:23,684 Speaker 2: he's trying to preserve credibility for whatever future endeavors that 252 00:13:23,764 --> 00:13:26,844 Speaker 2: he has. I mean with most canistates of the incentive, 253 00:13:26,884 --> 00:13:30,964 Speaker 2: with Eric Adams, I'd say, who knows what's happening in 254 00:13:31,044 --> 00:13:33,164 Speaker 2: terms of you know, look, you know it's New York City. 255 00:13:33,204 --> 00:13:36,404 Speaker 2: You know, maybe you turn a blind eyed stuff. But 256 00:13:36,444 --> 00:13:39,084 Speaker 2: that would be the logical reason he wasn't gonna win, right, 257 00:13:39,124 --> 00:13:40,964 Speaker 2: He wasn't gonna win. He was at oh, zero percent 258 00:13:40,964 --> 00:13:44,204 Speaker 2: in polymarket. He was at eight percent in the polls, 259 00:13:44,244 --> 00:13:46,404 Speaker 2: and so yeah, the game theory is just that, like 260 00:13:47,964 --> 00:13:49,964 Speaker 2: there's a non zero cost to embarrassment. 261 00:13:50,644 --> 00:13:55,524 Speaker 1: So Nate, uh, polymarket, how long has he been close 262 00:13:55,564 --> 00:13:57,124 Speaker 1: to zero on polymarket? 263 00:13:57,324 --> 00:14:01,204 Speaker 2: So according to polymarket, we're full disclosure. I'm an advisor. 264 00:14:02,444 --> 00:14:04,724 Speaker 2: It looks like they may be disabled. It's actually hard 265 00:14:04,764 --> 00:14:07,164 Speaker 2: to find the Eric Adams graph where it's it's like 266 00:14:07,284 --> 00:14:10,164 Speaker 2: now it's zero, but let me take a look here. Yeah, 267 00:14:10,284 --> 00:14:15,324 Speaker 2: so it became clear that the next most viable alternative 268 00:14:15,524 --> 00:14:20,724 Speaker 2: was Andrew Cuomo fairly early, right, I mean Adams is yeah, 269 00:14:20,804 --> 00:14:22,844 Speaker 2: I mean if you're looking back here, yeah, yeah, it's 270 00:14:22,884 --> 00:14:23,684 Speaker 2: hard to even find. 271 00:14:23,764 --> 00:14:25,484 Speaker 1: The reason I asked that question, she got a little. 272 00:14:25,284 --> 00:14:27,404 Speaker 2: Brad lander back in the day. You know, you got 273 00:14:27,404 --> 00:14:28,004 Speaker 2: a lander. 274 00:14:28,644 --> 00:14:30,964 Speaker 1: But the reason I asked the question, right, is that 275 00:14:31,444 --> 00:14:35,324 Speaker 1: it was very clear I think to everyone, as you say, 276 00:14:35,404 --> 00:14:37,084 Speaker 1: that's why I asked how long his poly Market had 277 00:14:37,164 --> 00:14:39,044 Speaker 1: him ut close to zero, that he wasn't going to 278 00:14:39,084 --> 00:14:41,924 Speaker 1: win for a long time, and he made a decision 279 00:14:41,964 --> 00:14:44,884 Speaker 1: to wait until now to drop out, and not earlier. 280 00:14:45,324 --> 00:14:48,164 Speaker 1: Now we could say that, oh, he's just a hubriistic, 281 00:14:48,404 --> 00:14:51,324 Speaker 1: you know, person with head in the clouds and just 282 00:14:51,364 --> 00:14:54,644 Speaker 1: assumes that he can make changes and that eventually. 283 00:14:54,364 --> 00:14:56,084 Speaker 2: He's harek Adams. We're talking about Maria. 284 00:14:56,364 --> 00:14:58,444 Speaker 1: I know, I know, I know, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, 285 00:14:59,684 --> 00:15:03,124 Speaker 1: and that he just thought that he could somehow pull 286 00:15:03,164 --> 00:15:05,124 Speaker 1: a win out of his ass, but that that is 287 00:15:05,244 --> 00:15:08,764 Speaker 1: what it seems like, or or he decided, you know what, 288 00:15:08,884 --> 00:15:12,364 Speaker 1: I want to screw over, like I don't like Cuomo 289 00:15:12,684 --> 00:15:15,004 Speaker 1: enough that like I don't want him to have time 290 00:15:15,084 --> 00:15:18,204 Speaker 1: to consolidate support, right, and so I'm going to spite 291 00:15:18,324 --> 00:15:22,324 Speaker 1: weight until much longer so that he doesn't have time 292 00:15:22,324 --> 00:15:24,804 Speaker 1: to do the fundraising and kind of no, I'm serious, 293 00:15:24,844 --> 00:15:27,404 Speaker 1: like what what are the calculations going through your mind? 294 00:15:27,844 --> 00:15:31,124 Speaker 1: Because it's clear and yes, we know that allegedly he 295 00:15:31,324 --> 00:15:34,004 Speaker 1: had been in talks to become the ambassador to Saudi 296 00:15:34,004 --> 00:15:38,524 Speaker 1: Arabia and that that had fallen through Saudi Arabia, and 297 00:15:39,684 --> 00:15:43,244 Speaker 1: so you know, he's been mulling an exit strategy for 298 00:15:43,324 --> 00:15:47,444 Speaker 1: a while and the announcement only comes now when there's 299 00:15:47,564 --> 00:15:50,604 Speaker 1: not much time to do any to do much of anything. 300 00:15:50,884 --> 00:15:52,804 Speaker 1: And I mean, obviously the other part of it is 301 00:15:52,924 --> 00:15:55,124 Speaker 1: he doesn't have that many votes. I think he's consistently 302 00:15:55,164 --> 00:15:59,524 Speaker 1: pulled in the single digits. Yeah, not like, so even 303 00:15:59,604 --> 00:16:01,884 Speaker 1: if all of his votes go to one single candidate, 304 00:16:01,924 --> 00:16:05,484 Speaker 1: which again he didn't endorse anyone, so that is probably 305 00:16:05,484 --> 00:16:07,644 Speaker 1: not happening. But if that were to happen, that still 306 00:16:07,644 --> 00:16:10,524 Speaker 1: wouldn't be enough to change the outcome of the election. 307 00:16:11,004 --> 00:16:13,044 Speaker 1: So maybe he did that calculus and was like, you 308 00:16:13,124 --> 00:16:14,444 Speaker 1: know what, I'm going to do this in the most 309 00:16:14,484 --> 00:16:17,244 Speaker 1: fuck you way possible, like I said, Or maybe he 310 00:16:17,324 --> 00:16:19,284 Speaker 1: was just hubristic and up until the very end, up 311 00:16:19,324 --> 00:16:22,204 Speaker 1: until this past weekend, thought hey, maybe I can actually 312 00:16:22,244 --> 00:16:23,004 Speaker 1: have a chance. 313 00:16:23,364 --> 00:16:27,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, Kenna, in multi way races, you can't have 314 00:16:28,524 --> 00:16:34,124 Speaker 2: interesting dynamics right where you basically have castating effects, where like, 315 00:16:34,164 --> 00:16:37,244 Speaker 2: if one candy is rising the polls and a voter 316 00:16:37,404 --> 00:16:39,684 Speaker 2: is in different between them, then that voter might gravitate 317 00:16:39,724 --> 00:16:42,564 Speaker 2: toward whichever candy seems to have the most chance, right Like, 318 00:16:42,644 --> 00:16:47,284 Speaker 2: there is some evidence that like Zoren has his voters 319 00:16:47,324 --> 00:16:51,484 Speaker 2: and then Cuomo curtisiwa who's the Republican, and Eric Adams 320 00:16:52,204 --> 00:16:56,084 Speaker 2: are kind of competing for the rest of the electorate, 321 00:16:56,124 --> 00:16:58,444 Speaker 2: and whether that's fifty percent or not can be can 322 00:16:58,484 --> 00:17:01,724 Speaker 2: be debated potentially, right, So it's not crazy for somebody 323 00:17:01,724 --> 00:17:03,004 Speaker 2: to think that, Like, by the way it happened in 324 00:17:03,044 --> 00:17:09,604 Speaker 2: the Democratic primary, where like, you know, Zoran was polling 325 00:17:10,124 --> 00:17:14,524 Speaker 2: in a you know, respectable second place in most of 326 00:17:14,564 --> 00:17:17,044 Speaker 2: the polls, and originally he was pulling at one percent, right, 327 00:17:17,084 --> 00:17:20,764 Speaker 2: And I think Eric Adams even like cited Polymarket at 328 00:17:20,764 --> 00:17:23,924 Speaker 2: one point to say, hey, people discounted Zoram before. I 329 00:17:23,964 --> 00:17:27,844 Speaker 2: mean's a little flipped around because they underestimated Zoram. Maybe 330 00:17:27,844 --> 00:17:29,324 Speaker 2: they will again and have win by any of a 331 00:17:29,324 --> 00:17:31,444 Speaker 2: bigger margin than polls show. I don't know, but like, 332 00:17:31,604 --> 00:17:36,004 Speaker 2: it's not it wouldn't be crazy for Eric Adams to 333 00:17:36,124 --> 00:17:39,244 Speaker 2: think this race could you know, have some unexpected turns 334 00:17:39,724 --> 00:17:43,404 Speaker 2: if he didn't have so many hard negatives. Right, his 335 00:17:43,444 --> 00:17:47,204 Speaker 2: approval ratings in New York are quite low. The fact 336 00:17:47,244 --> 00:17:49,724 Speaker 2: that he's buddy buddy with Trump. There are some Trump 337 00:17:49,764 --> 00:17:51,284 Speaker 2: oters in New York more than they used to be, 338 00:17:51,444 --> 00:17:53,764 Speaker 2: but does not help him unbalanced with what's going to 339 00:17:53,844 --> 00:17:58,204 Speaker 2: be probably a fairly young liberal electorate. Right, So those 340 00:17:58,244 --> 00:18:00,764 Speaker 2: hard negatives really because you know, he's had opportunities, you know, 341 00:18:00,884 --> 00:18:04,084 Speaker 2: and also he wasn't is the incumbent he was not 342 00:18:04,164 --> 00:18:09,644 Speaker 2: intimidating enough to deter Cuomo from running, even when Alma 343 00:18:09,924 --> 00:18:13,564 Speaker 2: was frankly embarrassed already in the primary. Is a glutton 344 00:18:13,604 --> 00:18:15,924 Speaker 2: for more punishment apparently clearly. 345 00:18:16,564 --> 00:18:21,164 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And uh, it's interesting because you know Cuomo 346 00:18:21,364 --> 00:18:24,324 Speaker 1: has you know, I think all of the other candidates 347 00:18:24,404 --> 00:18:29,724 Speaker 1: except for Sila have considered potential deals, right, and Curtis 348 00:18:29,764 --> 00:18:34,964 Speaker 1: Sila says, you know, I'm not Sliwa. Sorry, I yes, Sliwa. 349 00:18:35,404 --> 00:18:38,764 Speaker 1: This is this is one of those that I my 350 00:18:38,884 --> 00:18:44,124 Speaker 1: dyslexia definitely kicks in. So Curtis Sliwa has said repeatedly 351 00:18:44,204 --> 00:18:46,004 Speaker 1: that you know, I'm not dropping out and I'm not 352 00:18:46,044 --> 00:18:50,084 Speaker 1: given my votes to anyone else, and he's been pretty 353 00:18:50,324 --> 00:18:55,004 Speaker 1: i think, consistent about that. And that is the one 354 00:18:55,044 --> 00:18:58,564 Speaker 1: candidate who could have probably moved the needle right if 355 00:18:58,564 --> 00:18:59,804 Speaker 1: he dropped out. 356 00:19:03,644 --> 00:19:05,524 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. 357 00:19:21,004 --> 00:19:23,764 Speaker 1: One of the things you mentioned, Nate earlier in the 358 00:19:23,804 --> 00:19:26,484 Speaker 1: episode was kind of this democratic power vacuum and this 359 00:19:26,924 --> 00:19:30,764 Speaker 1: lack of kind of focused direction, consensus on the future 360 00:19:30,764 --> 00:19:32,484 Speaker 1: of the party. Now. You and I talked about this 361 00:19:32,524 --> 00:19:35,924 Speaker 1: briefly back in the primary, right after zora On had won, 362 00:19:36,284 --> 00:19:39,524 Speaker 1: and I think that that's even more true. Now. It's 363 00:19:39,564 --> 00:19:42,364 Speaker 1: interesting when the Democratic Party is trying to reach the 364 00:19:42,404 --> 00:19:46,204 Speaker 1: Republicans to try to take votes away from a Democrat, right, 365 00:19:46,284 --> 00:19:50,364 Speaker 1: Like that doesn't happen that often when they say, Okay, 366 00:19:50,364 --> 00:19:54,404 Speaker 1: this Democrat is a little too democratic for us, and 367 00:19:54,444 --> 00:19:57,764 Speaker 1: so maybe we want to reach out to our Republican 368 00:19:57,844 --> 00:20:02,364 Speaker 1: counterparts to prevent him from becoming mayor. That's an interesting 369 00:20:02,684 --> 00:20:03,884 Speaker 1: playbook page. 370 00:20:04,764 --> 00:20:08,084 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I don't think it's helped I don't think 371 00:20:08,084 --> 00:20:12,004 Speaker 2: it's hurt Zora much. That Like there's such explicit attempts 372 00:20:12,004 --> 00:20:14,204 Speaker 2: at coordination, where like every week a new hedge from 373 00:20:14,244 --> 00:20:16,644 Speaker 2: billionaireuld be like, we can't let this socialist wait, and 374 00:20:16,724 --> 00:20:19,524 Speaker 2: let's get all the conservatives together, right, And it's like 375 00:20:19,924 --> 00:20:22,244 Speaker 2: you kind of are making the point for Zoren, like 376 00:20:22,244 --> 00:20:24,364 Speaker 2: it's a bunch of billionaires trying to crowd him out 377 00:20:24,764 --> 00:20:29,044 Speaker 2: of the mayorship, right, and like it's you know, look, 378 00:20:29,124 --> 00:20:37,204 Speaker 2: I think a non scandal plagued and actually interested in 379 00:20:37,244 --> 00:20:40,244 Speaker 2: being there of New York Andrew Cuomo might have been 380 00:20:40,244 --> 00:20:45,324 Speaker 2: a better can eight. I don't know, right, but yeah, 381 00:20:45,364 --> 00:20:48,684 Speaker 2: you got locked into some very flawed alternatives early in 382 00:20:48,724 --> 00:20:50,404 Speaker 2: New York. It does have fairly strict ballot laws. It 383 00:20:50,484 --> 00:20:53,284 Speaker 2: was not possible to get like a a a new 384 00:20:53,364 --> 00:20:55,684 Speaker 2: name on the ballot without signatures because the primary was 385 00:20:55,724 --> 00:20:57,924 Speaker 2: back in June. And so I know, I have a 386 00:20:57,964 --> 00:21:04,444 Speaker 2: lot of respect for Zoran's political talent. But yeah, and 387 00:21:04,524 --> 00:21:05,684 Speaker 2: I don't know. What do you think about what do 388 00:21:05,684 --> 00:21:06,444 Speaker 2: you think about Cuomo? 389 00:21:10,444 --> 00:21:13,164 Speaker 1: I have not. I am not a huge fan. 390 00:21:13,404 --> 00:21:16,964 Speaker 2: Did you watch the pandemic briefings? 391 00:21:16,404 --> 00:21:20,364 Speaker 1: I tried. I started out watching the pandemic briefings. 392 00:21:20,404 --> 00:21:21,524 Speaker 2: There wasn't much else to do. 393 00:21:22,284 --> 00:21:25,164 Speaker 1: This is true, This is true. We were all stuck. 394 00:21:26,164 --> 00:21:29,164 Speaker 1: I was stuck in my eight hundred square foot apartment 395 00:21:29,364 --> 00:21:30,564 Speaker 1: in Brooklyn at the time. 396 00:21:30,684 --> 00:21:34,124 Speaker 2: No I remember like going to like was it New 397 00:21:34,204 --> 00:21:38,004 Speaker 2: Year's twenty twenty and I was twenty twenty? Is COVID year? 398 00:21:38,044 --> 00:21:41,644 Speaker 2: It's all it seems like happily so long ago now, Maria, right, 399 00:21:41,684 --> 00:21:45,244 Speaker 2: And like we were in some fucking restaurant and Brooklyn 400 00:21:45,284 --> 00:21:48,204 Speaker 2: outdoors and like a close like the minute at mint anyway, 401 00:21:48,244 --> 00:21:50,644 Speaker 2: all these fucking rules about outdoor dying. It just kind 402 00:21:50,644 --> 00:21:52,644 Speaker 2: of brings back those people who have like, oh I have, 403 00:21:53,044 --> 00:21:55,764 Speaker 2: I kind of have nostalgia for COVID. Fuck you, you know, 404 00:21:55,844 --> 00:21:58,284 Speaker 2: I don't know it was you know, maybe if you 405 00:21:58,284 --> 00:22:00,204 Speaker 2: were in a warm state, right, but not that winter 406 00:22:00,284 --> 00:22:03,884 Speaker 2: in New York. But yeah, look, you know, I think 407 00:22:03,924 --> 00:22:07,804 Speaker 2: zarn't also been to the fact that like the establishment 408 00:22:07,844 --> 00:22:11,684 Speaker 2: and the Democratic Party has been kind of discredited. Right people, 409 00:22:11,684 --> 00:22:15,124 Speaker 2: for better or worse, don't really believe that it's going 410 00:22:15,204 --> 00:22:18,964 Speaker 2: to win elections. And also you have all these leaders 411 00:22:18,964 --> 00:22:22,204 Speaker 2: who are either you know, neo babies is NEPO or 412 00:22:22,244 --> 00:22:30,564 Speaker 2: nepo I guessmotism either babies, Oh, really fucking old, you 413 00:22:30,604 --> 00:22:35,764 Speaker 2: know what I mean? Babies? Yeah, and like and like 414 00:22:35,844 --> 00:22:40,044 Speaker 2: people are are tired of that, and like the left 415 00:22:40,444 --> 00:22:43,124 Speaker 2: has the kind of you know, I mean, I guess 416 00:22:43,124 --> 00:22:45,204 Speaker 2: the left gained a lot of cultural power in some ways, 417 00:22:45,204 --> 00:22:49,604 Speaker 2: like a certain kind of maybe more cultural woke left, 418 00:22:49,604 --> 00:22:51,324 Speaker 2: which I don't consider really the true left. I think 419 00:22:51,364 --> 00:22:53,524 Speaker 2: they're just kind of this other thing that's kind of 420 00:22:53,524 --> 00:22:57,484 Speaker 2: correlated with the left. But you know, why not why 421 00:22:57,524 --> 00:22:59,964 Speaker 2: not give why not give socialism a trimary? We've tried 422 00:22:59,964 --> 00:23:01,244 Speaker 2: everything else and we're out of ideas. 423 00:23:03,084 --> 00:23:06,484 Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think that it's a you know, 424 00:23:06,564 --> 00:23:11,644 Speaker 1: it's a really interesting and pivotal moment in the Democratic 425 00:23:11,684 --> 00:23:15,124 Speaker 1: Party because I mean, we've talked about this to death, 426 00:23:15,284 --> 00:23:18,364 Speaker 1: but there is this major power vacuum and lack of 427 00:23:18,444 --> 00:23:24,204 Speaker 1: direction and lack of understanding of how to win votes. 428 00:23:24,644 --> 00:23:27,844 Speaker 1: You know, it's mind boggling to me that a party 429 00:23:27,884 --> 00:23:31,404 Speaker 1: that used to be able to organize so effectively, I mean, 430 00:23:31,444 --> 00:23:34,924 Speaker 1: New York was the center of democratic political organization for 431 00:23:34,924 --> 00:23:39,724 Speaker 1: so long with you know, Tammany Hall is a drag queen. No, yes, 432 00:23:40,004 --> 00:23:42,684 Speaker 1: I mean, actually, Nate, I'm pretty sure there's there must 433 00:23:42,724 --> 00:23:44,964 Speaker 1: be a drag queen out there whose name is Tammany Hall. 434 00:23:45,484 --> 00:23:47,964 Speaker 1: And if there's not drag queens, if you're listening to this, 435 00:23:48,204 --> 00:23:50,684 Speaker 1: please can we have a Tammany Hall drag queen? But 436 00:23:50,884 --> 00:23:53,444 Speaker 1: the particular one I am referring to it would be 437 00:23:53,444 --> 00:23:56,964 Speaker 1: such a great name. Was a New York political machine 438 00:23:57,764 --> 00:24:03,164 Speaker 1: which had influence on a national scale. Started in in 439 00:24:03,204 --> 00:24:05,844 Speaker 1: the late seventeen hundreds, had a ton of influence in 440 00:24:05,884 --> 00:24:11,844 Speaker 1: the eighteen hundreds, basically engineered, manipulated, did a lot of stuff, 441 00:24:12,444 --> 00:24:16,524 Speaker 1: some good old fashioned politics, some more mobby and strong hand, 442 00:24:16,844 --> 00:24:20,444 Speaker 1: strong handed to basically control New York for a very 443 00:24:20,484 --> 00:24:23,444 Speaker 1: long period of time. I'm not nostalgic for Tammany Hall. 444 00:24:23,524 --> 00:24:27,164 Speaker 1: That was you know, we're talking that was corrupt party 445 00:24:27,204 --> 00:24:30,404 Speaker 1: politic bosses, et cetera, et cetera. But they knew how 446 00:24:30,404 --> 00:24:32,444 Speaker 1: to mobilize votes. They knew how to get to people, 447 00:24:33,244 --> 00:24:37,764 Speaker 1: not in the mob way, but in the actual, you know, 448 00:24:37,884 --> 00:24:44,164 Speaker 1: mobilizing support way. And you know, I think that we 449 00:24:44,284 --> 00:24:49,324 Speaker 1: are now in this moment where there seems to be 450 00:24:49,964 --> 00:24:52,244 Speaker 1: just a lack of clear direction of how to get 451 00:24:52,244 --> 00:24:56,244 Speaker 1: that popular appeal and what direction to take to actually 452 00:24:56,924 --> 00:24:59,764 Speaker 1: be able to attain the levels of popularity that are 453 00:24:59,844 --> 00:25:04,004 Speaker 1: needed to win elections, to get candidates who are then 454 00:25:04,084 --> 00:25:07,524 Speaker 1: viable not just on a state but on a national level, 455 00:25:07,884 --> 00:25:11,444 Speaker 1: right to actually kind of create the next generation of 456 00:25:11,844 --> 00:25:14,044 Speaker 1: party leaders and figure out, you know, what does the 457 00:25:14,084 --> 00:25:18,364 Speaker 1: future of the party actually look like. And you know, 458 00:25:18,404 --> 00:25:22,044 Speaker 1: we've talked a lot about how the Kamala Harris campaign 459 00:25:22,124 --> 00:25:25,524 Speaker 1: just completely failed to do this, and U Nate actually 460 00:25:25,604 --> 00:25:29,244 Speaker 1: just had a newsletter out last week, I believe about 461 00:25:29,244 --> 00:25:34,484 Speaker 1: Mayor Pete and his appeal or lack thereof among different demographics. 462 00:25:34,844 --> 00:25:38,444 Speaker 1: It seems like there is a vacuum there. And if 463 00:25:38,444 --> 00:25:40,524 Speaker 1: you remember, you know, when we talk about the future 464 00:25:40,564 --> 00:25:43,044 Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party, the person who we're talking about 465 00:25:43,084 --> 00:25:47,284 Speaker 1: today well, partially Eric Adams. He was once that face, right, 466 00:25:47,324 --> 00:25:50,324 Speaker 1: people thought that someone like Adams could be the future 467 00:25:50,484 --> 00:25:53,764 Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party. People were so excited when he 468 00:25:53,884 --> 00:25:57,564 Speaker 1: was elected, and like that didn't go over so well. 469 00:25:57,804 --> 00:25:59,684 Speaker 1: How long did it take for him to appoint his 470 00:25:59,724 --> 00:26:02,924 Speaker 1: brother to the police, Like less than twenty four hours, 471 00:26:02,964 --> 00:26:04,604 Speaker 1: not literally, but it was just like a few days 472 00:26:04,644 --> 00:26:07,444 Speaker 1: after he'd gotten elected. I mean the corruption stuff started 473 00:26:07,484 --> 00:26:13,564 Speaker 1: happening just immediately immediately upon election, and that did not 474 00:26:13,764 --> 00:26:16,844 Speaker 1: go the way that the Democratic Party thought that it would. 475 00:26:17,204 --> 00:26:20,724 Speaker 1: But you know, if people don't remember, like Eric Adams 476 00:26:20,804 --> 00:26:24,004 Speaker 1: was not always a disgraced politician. There was like a 477 00:26:24,124 --> 00:26:27,684 Speaker 1: history of a lot of support and enthusiasm and excitement 478 00:26:27,804 --> 00:26:29,284 Speaker 1: about him as a candidate. 479 00:26:29,684 --> 00:26:32,324 Speaker 2: Yeah, I wrote a tweet that people like the resurface 480 00:26:32,364 --> 00:26:34,764 Speaker 2: in times about like, oh, I think Eric Adams is 481 00:26:34,804 --> 00:26:38,004 Speaker 2: one of the one of the five or ten people 482 00:26:38,084 --> 00:26:41,724 Speaker 2: most likely to have a bright future in the president 483 00:26:41,764 --> 00:26:43,964 Speaker 2: and the Democratic Party, Right, And then the next tweet 484 00:26:44,164 --> 00:26:46,364 Speaker 2: was like, by the way, it's because he's Hiberia, so 485 00:26:46,364 --> 00:26:47,884 Speaker 2: it might not work out, but it might work out. 486 00:26:48,564 --> 00:26:50,524 Speaker 2: People love throwing that back, right, and it's like they 487 00:26:50,684 --> 00:26:52,644 Speaker 2: actually they don't actually quote the second tweet, it's all 488 00:26:52,644 --> 00:26:55,444 Speaker 2: out of context, but you know whatever, It's the fucking Internet, 489 00:26:55,564 --> 00:26:57,284 Speaker 2: so who cares. But yeah, I was one of those 490 00:26:57,324 --> 00:27:01,164 Speaker 2: people who thought that, like, Okay, this is interesting because 491 00:27:01,204 --> 00:27:08,524 Speaker 2: you have a black candidate who was pretty moderate, especially 492 00:27:08,564 --> 00:27:13,204 Speaker 2: on issues like policing where Democrats had moved too far 493 00:27:13,244 --> 00:27:14,804 Speaker 2: to the left of New York has never been quite 494 00:27:14,844 --> 00:27:18,124 Speaker 2: as woke about police stuff as some other cities. Right, 495 00:27:19,484 --> 00:27:22,924 Speaker 2: So I had this template was interesting, right that, like, 496 00:27:23,164 --> 00:27:25,924 Speaker 2: you know, given that kind of like the two major 497 00:27:26,204 --> 00:27:30,444 Speaker 2: constituencies in the Democratic Party were are voters of color. 498 00:27:30,484 --> 00:27:32,084 Speaker 2: I don't know how I feel about that term, but 499 00:27:32,124 --> 00:27:36,444 Speaker 2: black what is especially Hispanic Asian American right? And then 500 00:27:36,724 --> 00:27:41,124 Speaker 2: progressive liberals within this house, we believe yard science as 501 00:27:41,164 --> 00:27:44,484 Speaker 2: the other major coalition partner. Like I thought, maybe like 502 00:27:44,524 --> 00:27:47,684 Speaker 2: a minority candidate who's more moderate could interestingly kind of 503 00:27:47,724 --> 00:27:51,924 Speaker 2: like appeal to to both and might also you know 504 00:27:52,124 --> 00:27:54,124 Speaker 2: one thing that I think is born out by the 505 00:27:54,164 --> 00:27:58,284 Speaker 2: literature but by anecdotal experience, who is that like a 506 00:27:58,324 --> 00:28:01,124 Speaker 2: woman or a minority candidate tends to read as being 507 00:28:01,164 --> 00:28:04,924 Speaker 2: more liberal than they are. Right, people are applying priors 508 00:28:04,924 --> 00:28:06,964 Speaker 2: and Adams kind of overcame that with the x cop 509 00:28:07,004 --> 00:28:09,724 Speaker 2: thing and just like like no would mistake although he 510 00:28:09,764 --> 00:28:12,764 Speaker 2: had pronouns in his bio on Twitter, but no one 511 00:28:12,764 --> 00:28:16,604 Speaker 2: would mistake him for like a far left Yeah, okay, right, 512 00:28:16,644 --> 00:28:18,444 Speaker 2: And I thought that was an interesting combination for a 513 00:28:18,484 --> 00:28:23,484 Speaker 2: party looking for, uh, for moderates. Aren't this kind of 514 00:28:23,484 --> 00:28:26,324 Speaker 2: cookie cutter, white person type of thing? 515 00:28:27,284 --> 00:28:29,604 Speaker 1: Oh? Absolutely? And then he had you know, he also 516 00:28:29,644 --> 00:28:32,564 Speaker 1: always stressed that he had working classroots, right, which he did, 517 00:28:33,604 --> 00:28:37,404 Speaker 1: so that was kind of another appealing thing where it's like, 518 00:28:37,844 --> 00:28:41,804 Speaker 1: you know, X cop more more towards the conservative side, 519 00:28:41,924 --> 00:28:43,924 Speaker 1: but man, you know, man of the people, kind of 520 00:28:43,964 --> 00:28:47,004 Speaker 1: more populist some of the appeals that we see working 521 00:28:47,084 --> 00:28:51,444 Speaker 1: from you know, Donald Trump, right, and and the kind 522 00:28:51,444 --> 00:28:54,644 Speaker 1: of the the maga like appeals he had that he 523 00:28:54,764 --> 00:28:58,244 Speaker 1: had the police, he had the minority. And yes, Nate, 524 00:28:58,284 --> 00:29:02,244 Speaker 1: there actually are some good data points, there's good literature 525 00:29:02,284 --> 00:29:06,844 Speaker 1: on this that people do make certain assumptions about how 526 00:29:06,924 --> 00:29:10,804 Speaker 1: liberal or conservative you are based on how you look. 527 00:29:11,204 --> 00:29:12,684 Speaker 1: So if people looked at the two of us and 528 00:29:12,724 --> 00:29:15,804 Speaker 1: just saw photographs of us and didn't know anything about us, 529 00:29:15,844 --> 00:29:18,004 Speaker 1: they would assume that you were much more conservative than 530 00:29:18,084 --> 00:29:21,404 Speaker 1: I am. That's not right, like it's it doesn't. Actually, 531 00:29:21,804 --> 00:29:24,364 Speaker 1: these are not things that are born out in reality. 532 00:29:24,444 --> 00:29:28,044 Speaker 1: But people use incorrect data assumptions all the time, right, 533 00:29:28,204 --> 00:29:31,684 Speaker 1: snap judgments when you see someone and so yes, your 534 00:29:31,764 --> 00:29:34,804 Speaker 1: your your point about the fact that that made him 535 00:29:34,844 --> 00:29:38,764 Speaker 1: seem like he'd be more liberal, more attractive to liberals, 536 00:29:38,764 --> 00:29:40,004 Speaker 1: is correct? You know who was? 537 00:29:40,444 --> 00:29:42,524 Speaker 2: Who was? I another you would have a weak spot 538 00:29:42,604 --> 00:29:46,764 Speaker 2: for Turkish airlines air mile. I mean, like, I look, 539 00:29:46,804 --> 00:29:49,044 Speaker 2: I would hold out for I've never found trinket airlines. 540 00:29:49,084 --> 00:29:51,484 Speaker 2: I'm sure it's nice, right, I would hold out for 541 00:29:51,644 --> 00:29:55,124 Speaker 2: fucking Emirates or Qatar or something, right. I mean you're 542 00:29:55,164 --> 00:29:56,404 Speaker 2: selling you a little cheap there. 543 00:29:57,324 --> 00:30:01,844 Speaker 1: I mean, I've never I've never flown Emirates, but I 544 00:30:01,884 --> 00:30:04,884 Speaker 1: have heard that it's really really nice. And I almost 545 00:30:04,924 --> 00:30:10,324 Speaker 1: flew in Emirates once to a speaking engagement, and I 546 00:30:10,444 --> 00:30:12,884 Speaker 1: was I didn't really want to do the speaking engagement 547 00:30:12,924 --> 00:30:14,484 Speaker 1: and it was going to be really disruptive, but I 548 00:30:14,524 --> 00:30:17,324 Speaker 1: was really excited about flying Emirates first class. 549 00:30:17,764 --> 00:30:20,404 Speaker 2: I got upgraded. When tim on Emirates they upgrade, they're like, 550 00:30:20,444 --> 00:30:24,924 Speaker 2: here's a I know, maybe they're trying to improve relations 551 00:30:24,924 --> 00:30:25,804 Speaker 2: with the Jews or some. 552 00:30:25,844 --> 00:30:28,124 Speaker 1: I've seen it. Maybe you and I would be Maybe 553 00:30:28,164 --> 00:30:30,484 Speaker 1: you and I would make corrupt politicians. Maybe all it 554 00:30:30,484 --> 00:30:33,564 Speaker 1: would take would be a few upgrades, and all of 555 00:30:33,604 --> 00:30:37,404 Speaker 1: a sudden we'd have corruption scandals of our own as 556 00:30:37,444 --> 00:30:40,964 Speaker 1: we took the mayoral office. But yeah, what do we 557 00:30:41,204 --> 00:30:44,284 Speaker 1: you know, I think that if we're if we're talking about, 558 00:30:44,444 --> 00:30:47,004 Speaker 1: you know, back back to kind of the decision to 559 00:30:47,084 --> 00:30:50,444 Speaker 1: drop out. Now, I you know, my gut feeling is 560 00:30:50,484 --> 00:30:53,244 Speaker 1: that this really isn't going to change the race much, right, 561 00:30:53,324 --> 00:30:56,644 Speaker 1: that it was. The timing of the exit and the 562 00:30:56,684 --> 00:31:02,044 Speaker 1: tenor of the exit makes it seem that it is 563 00:31:02,204 --> 00:31:06,364 Speaker 1: basically not consequential in terms of the eventual results of 564 00:31:06,404 --> 00:31:08,964 Speaker 1: the election. Do you agree with that or do you 565 00:31:08,964 --> 00:31:11,444 Speaker 1: think that I'm under selling it a little bit. That's 566 00:31:11,484 --> 00:31:13,844 Speaker 1: just my gut reaction based on everything we've talked about. 567 00:31:14,044 --> 00:31:16,444 Speaker 2: I don't think you're understand I mean, look the math, 568 00:31:16,844 --> 00:31:21,964 Speaker 2: Zoraim's ahead about twenty points with everybody running, right, Adams 569 00:31:22,004 --> 00:31:25,364 Speaker 2: had about nine percent, right, So if you take the 570 00:31:25,444 --> 00:31:28,964 Speaker 2: whole nine and give it to Quormo, then that closes 571 00:31:29,004 --> 00:31:30,964 Speaker 2: the guests steps at two eleven, which would start to 572 00:31:31,004 --> 00:31:35,244 Speaker 2: be a more manageable gap. Right. However, I'll probably get 573 00:31:35,284 --> 00:31:37,244 Speaker 2: two thirds of it, So it winds up like reducing 574 00:31:37,924 --> 00:31:41,844 Speaker 2: zornzly to fifteen points, and like fifteen points is a 575 00:31:41,884 --> 00:31:45,364 Speaker 2: sizable edge. We still have as of the time we're speaking, Maria, 576 00:31:45,444 --> 00:31:48,644 Speaker 2: we still have five and a half weeks to go. 577 00:31:49,004 --> 00:31:51,244 Speaker 2: The whole World Series of Poker is almost as long, right, 578 00:31:51,284 --> 00:31:56,124 Speaker 2: there's still there's still a while, yes, but yeah. 579 00:31:55,644 --> 00:31:57,244 Speaker 1: There's a time for a one outer night. 580 00:31:57,844 --> 00:32:00,844 Speaker 2: I don't think I think he's trying to an inside straight. 581 00:32:00,884 --> 00:32:03,124 Speaker 2: I think we're using that fucking correctly. That analogy, I 582 00:32:03,164 --> 00:32:06,164 Speaker 2: mean has odds at polemarker to fourteen percent, and my 583 00:32:06,244 --> 00:32:09,084 Speaker 2: newsletter day I said I probably tweaked those down to 584 00:32:09,124 --> 00:32:09,844 Speaker 2: ten percent. 585 00:32:10,524 --> 00:32:10,764 Speaker 1: There. 586 00:32:10,844 --> 00:32:13,244 Speaker 2: I think prey dependent on Sleiwad dropping out or something. 587 00:32:13,244 --> 00:32:15,604 Speaker 2: We're at the zone where like this is not in 588 00:32:15,644 --> 00:32:19,844 Speaker 2: the statistical or practical margin of error, right, if Sleeva 589 00:32:19,924 --> 00:32:23,564 Speaker 2: drops out, then it becomes actually close. Okay, but you 590 00:32:23,644 --> 00:32:26,164 Speaker 2: need like a change in the narrative or something that 591 00:32:26,324 --> 00:32:31,164 Speaker 2: like you know, if there were you know, I don't know. 592 00:32:32,204 --> 00:32:33,524 Speaker 2: I mean, the problem is like a lot of things 593 00:32:33,564 --> 00:32:37,484 Speaker 2: that would be like October surprises would be like like 594 00:32:37,524 --> 00:32:41,724 Speaker 2: what if Trump sends the National Guard to New York. 595 00:32:43,284 --> 00:32:45,204 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that would help Cuomo, right, I think 596 00:32:45,244 --> 00:32:47,564 Speaker 2: that Zori, You're like, this is bad blahlah blah. Resistance 597 00:32:47,644 --> 00:32:50,404 Speaker 2: hashtag help him potentially, you know what I mean? 598 00:32:50,844 --> 00:32:53,204 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was actually gonna ask, like, you know, do 599 00:32:53,244 --> 00:32:55,244 Speaker 1: we do we think, like, can there be an X 600 00:32:55,284 --> 00:32:58,044 Speaker 1: fact or October surprise type of thing that changes the odds? 601 00:32:58,084 --> 00:33:02,164 Speaker 1: Obviously this is speculative, but what are polymarkets odds of 602 00:33:02,324 --> 00:33:03,844 Speaker 1: SLIWA dropping out? 603 00:33:04,124 --> 00:33:06,444 Speaker 2: About sixteen percent? I mean, there's no real reason to 604 00:33:06,524 --> 00:33:09,044 Speaker 2: drop out. He won the it was uncontested domination. He 605 00:33:09,084 --> 00:33:10,844 Speaker 2: won there a nomination far and square. 606 00:33:11,564 --> 00:33:14,684 Speaker 1: Yeah, he won. And he said that he's not like 607 00:33:14,724 --> 00:33:17,084 Speaker 1: he has said multiple times that he has not dropped. 608 00:33:17,284 --> 00:33:18,804 Speaker 1: He is not going to drop out. I mean that 609 00:33:18,884 --> 00:33:20,884 Speaker 1: said so did atoms up until the point where he 610 00:33:20,924 --> 00:33:21,364 Speaker 1: dropped out. 611 00:33:21,404 --> 00:33:23,004 Speaker 2: Well, his sons are different. He gets to be on 612 00:33:23,084 --> 00:33:25,524 Speaker 2: TV a whole bunch, and he's run for many things 613 00:33:26,044 --> 00:33:27,924 Speaker 2: many times. He's a founder of the Guardian Angels. I 614 00:33:27,924 --> 00:33:30,284 Speaker 2: guess he's trying to build support for his cause. Actually 615 00:33:30,364 --> 00:33:33,764 Speaker 2: kind of an interesting guy, uh, not as conservatives you 616 00:33:33,844 --> 00:33:37,044 Speaker 2: might expect. I mean, he's kind of a typical New 617 00:33:37,124 --> 00:33:40,044 Speaker 2: Yorker and like on some of like the LGBTQ rights, 618 00:33:40,164 --> 00:33:42,964 Speaker 2: you know, kind of slightly woke combined with being quite 619 00:33:42,964 --> 00:33:46,284 Speaker 2: conservative on crime and other subjects. Right, it's a certain 620 00:33:46,284 --> 00:33:49,324 Speaker 2: type of New Yorker and he I don't think he 621 00:33:49,364 --> 00:33:52,924 Speaker 2: beats orin, but like he's been overshadowed by the Cuomo 622 00:33:52,964 --> 00:33:54,044 Speaker 2: Adams drama. 623 00:33:54,524 --> 00:33:58,244 Speaker 1: Yeah, and it seems to me that his calculus is very, 624 00:33:58,364 --> 00:34:01,884 Speaker 1: very different from Adams's in the sense that, as you 625 00:34:02,004 --> 00:34:05,764 Speaker 1: pointed out, and you know, for Adams, being defeated can 626 00:34:05,844 --> 00:34:10,164 Speaker 1: cause embarrassment and can potentially, you know, for his future 627 00:34:10,204 --> 00:34:14,564 Speaker 1: political prospects. Not the corruption or bribery or those charges, 628 00:34:15,164 --> 00:34:19,124 Speaker 1: but the fact that he you know, lost the election 629 00:34:19,324 --> 00:34:22,444 Speaker 1: is what's going to do him in politically. So for him, 630 00:34:22,484 --> 00:34:25,204 Speaker 1: you know, it's that kind of calculus. But for Sliwa, 631 00:34:25,364 --> 00:34:29,364 Speaker 1: the calculus is actually mostly upside right right now, he's 632 00:34:29,404 --> 00:34:33,404 Speaker 1: getting media exposure. It's not negative media exposure. He's getting 633 00:34:33,444 --> 00:34:37,084 Speaker 1: to speak, he's getting to voice opinions. Like, it's actually 634 00:34:37,084 --> 00:34:41,004 Speaker 1: completely different up until you know, he probably knows he's 635 00:34:41,044 --> 00:34:43,084 Speaker 1: not going to win, and it doesn't matter, right because 636 00:34:43,124 --> 00:34:46,204 Speaker 1: he is setting up for a better political future for 637 00:34:46,284 --> 00:34:49,684 Speaker 1: himself by staying in the race. And so the game 638 00:34:49,724 --> 00:34:52,364 Speaker 1: theory I think just is not there for him. Why 639 00:34:52,404 --> 00:34:54,484 Speaker 1: in the world would he drop out and give his 640 00:34:54,564 --> 00:34:58,844 Speaker 1: votes to Cuomo or to anyone else. That being said, 641 00:34:58,884 --> 00:35:02,084 Speaker 1: if he doesn't drop out, then Adams's decision to drop 642 00:35:02,084 --> 00:35:06,284 Speaker 1: out basically changes nothing in terms of you know, in 643 00:35:06,364 --> 00:35:08,844 Speaker 1: terms of our calculus of who is going to win 644 00:35:08,884 --> 00:35:10,724 Speaker 1: the race. Again, we don't know if there's going to 645 00:35:10,764 --> 00:35:13,884 Speaker 1: be an X factor. Maybe someone is busy out there, 646 00:35:14,284 --> 00:35:20,444 Speaker 1: you know, preparing to drop a bomb bombshell news item. 647 00:35:20,684 --> 00:35:22,564 Speaker 2: You already would have dropped you I would have dropped 648 00:35:22,604 --> 00:35:25,244 Speaker 2: it though, right in a two can eight race it's 649 00:35:25,244 --> 00:35:27,964 Speaker 2: a little different, right, but you would have dropped the bombshell. 650 00:35:28,004 --> 00:35:29,604 Speaker 2: And also you have the primary, and like ran in 651 00:35:29,604 --> 00:35:35,364 Speaker 2: the primary, Zoran kind of came not quite out of nowhere, right, 652 00:35:35,364 --> 00:35:37,884 Speaker 2: but it was a relatively quick rise. But like it's 653 00:35:37,924 --> 00:35:39,724 Speaker 2: been a fucking slow Like, why we have this fucking 654 00:35:39,724 --> 00:35:42,364 Speaker 2: primary in June for a general election in November. I'm 655 00:35:42,404 --> 00:35:44,644 Speaker 2: not sure I understand that you need that much time 656 00:35:44,684 --> 00:35:48,084 Speaker 2: to campaign anyway, It's crazy. You know, the June timing 657 00:35:48,124 --> 00:35:50,724 Speaker 2: is supposed to help incumbents because all the rich people 658 00:35:51,044 --> 00:35:54,724 Speaker 2: are out in the Hampton's or Vermont Maria, for example. 659 00:35:57,004 --> 00:35:59,404 Speaker 1: Wait, is that true? Is that the reason for. 660 00:35:59,364 --> 00:36:02,204 Speaker 2: The June I believe that's that's something that people who 661 00:36:03,764 --> 00:36:07,684 Speaker 2: have knowledge about city politics tend to believe, is my understanding. 662 00:36:08,284 --> 00:36:09,284 Speaker 2: I phrase that oddly. 663 00:36:09,524 --> 00:36:12,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, No, I get what you were trying to say. 664 00:36:12,844 --> 00:36:15,044 Speaker 1: I did not know that. I was always curious about 665 00:36:15,044 --> 00:36:17,884 Speaker 1: why the timing was what it was. But I guess 666 00:36:17,884 --> 00:36:23,884 Speaker 1: that makes sense. And we'll be back right after this. 667 00:36:37,724 --> 00:36:40,564 Speaker 2: By the way, Yeah, you alluded to before, like Cuomo 668 00:36:41,564 --> 00:36:45,924 Speaker 2: Adams were kind of counting on the machine type turnout 669 00:36:45,964 --> 00:36:48,444 Speaker 2: where where you're good at getting your voters out. The 670 00:36:48,444 --> 00:36:51,964 Speaker 2: problem actually for Cuomo in the primary was that like 671 00:36:52,004 --> 00:36:55,964 Speaker 2: turnout was quite high relative to mayoral primaries, right, So 672 00:36:56,004 --> 00:36:58,124 Speaker 2: he probably got the voters he expected to get. But 673 00:36:58,964 --> 00:37:02,084 Speaker 2: Zorin brought up people that had not voted in these 674 00:37:02,124 --> 00:37:03,124 Speaker 2: primaries before. 675 00:37:03,364 --> 00:37:05,724 Speaker 1: Yeah, so Zarn in a way was able to activate 676 00:37:05,724 --> 00:37:10,124 Speaker 1: that machine better than the old Democratic as stafleablishment could. 677 00:37:10,324 --> 00:37:12,484 Speaker 2: Well, But like the machine is, the machine is kind 678 00:37:12,484 --> 00:37:13,924 Speaker 2: of fucking, kind of fucking. 679 00:37:13,684 --> 00:37:17,524 Speaker 1: Broken, exactly. No one likes the exactly. That's that's the point. 680 00:37:17,804 --> 00:37:21,204 Speaker 1: So you know Zora as the individual. 681 00:37:20,684 --> 00:37:23,284 Speaker 2: He is one of those McDonald's ice cream makers. It's like, oh, 682 00:37:23,324 --> 00:37:25,844 Speaker 2: you've always broken broken, except there's no scam to get 683 00:37:25,844 --> 00:37:26,604 Speaker 2: the repair guy in. 684 00:37:26,644 --> 00:37:30,844 Speaker 1: Apparently there's a website that actually tracks those McDonald's machines 685 00:37:30,884 --> 00:37:33,204 Speaker 1: and you can see where the ones, you know, it's 686 00:37:33,244 --> 00:37:36,644 Speaker 1: basically all broken, but where the functioning ones are. I 687 00:37:36,924 --> 00:37:40,324 Speaker 1: found that quite amusing. Never tried the ice cream at McDonald's, 688 00:37:40,364 --> 00:37:43,804 Speaker 1: but I for some reason know this little bit of 689 00:37:43,844 --> 00:37:46,444 Speaker 1: information and find it very funny. But yes, that's a 690 00:37:46,444 --> 00:37:49,524 Speaker 1: good analogy. I think that the you know, the ice 691 00:37:49,564 --> 00:37:53,844 Speaker 1: cream machine is definitely broken in most locations in New York, 692 00:37:54,204 --> 00:37:56,404 Speaker 1: and Zoron was able to come out with his you know, 693 00:37:56,484 --> 00:38:02,164 Speaker 1: mister softy little cart and blare his song. If we're gonna, 694 00:38:02,564 --> 00:38:04,164 Speaker 1: if we're going to continue this analogy. 695 00:38:04,204 --> 00:38:06,604 Speaker 2: Do you ever eat chain fast food? 696 00:38:07,324 --> 00:38:13,444 Speaker 1: No? I don't often. The only so I've never I've 697 00:38:13,484 --> 00:38:16,844 Speaker 1: had McDonald's fries. That's the only thing I've ever eaten 698 00:38:16,924 --> 00:38:17,644 Speaker 1: at McDonald's. 699 00:38:17,644 --> 00:38:18,524 Speaker 2: You've never had a big mac. 700 00:38:18,604 --> 00:38:21,564 Speaker 1: No, I've never had a big mac, and I've never American. 701 00:38:22,244 --> 00:38:25,324 Speaker 1: I am, I am what I've never You've never had 702 00:38:25,364 --> 00:38:26,884 Speaker 1: a big Mack. I've never had a big mac. 703 00:38:26,964 --> 00:38:32,124 Speaker 2: Nate would you have one, can still be friends? Would 704 00:38:32,164 --> 00:38:32,684 Speaker 2: you have one? 705 00:38:32,884 --> 00:38:35,124 Speaker 1: I mean, if forced to, I might try a bite 706 00:38:35,164 --> 00:38:37,244 Speaker 1: just to say I've tried it, but no, I don't's kind. 707 00:38:37,084 --> 00:38:38,124 Speaker 2: Of a good sandwich, I don't. 708 00:38:38,164 --> 00:38:40,004 Speaker 1: I don't really want one. 709 00:38:40,564 --> 00:38:41,644 Speaker 2: I like it's pretty good. 710 00:38:41,804 --> 00:38:44,164 Speaker 1: I like burgers, but you know, I'm more of like 711 00:38:44,204 --> 00:38:47,404 Speaker 1: a Minetta Tavern, black Pipelburger type of person. 712 00:38:48,004 --> 00:38:50,164 Speaker 2: So you've never been like an airport where like because 713 00:38:50,164 --> 00:38:52,164 Speaker 2: they always have the fucking like they have the local 714 00:38:52,244 --> 00:38:56,044 Speaker 2: fucking concession. That's some terrible fucking airport specific version, right, 715 00:38:56,244 --> 00:38:58,724 Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of You got the McDonald's, You've 716 00:38:58,764 --> 00:38:59,964 Speaker 2: got the Wendy's at the airport. 717 00:39:00,044 --> 00:39:02,564 Speaker 1: I've never been to Days. I've never been inside a Wendy's. 718 00:39:02,604 --> 00:39:03,844 Speaker 1: I've never been to Burger King. 719 00:39:04,004 --> 00:39:05,644 Speaker 2: You've never been inside a wedding. 720 00:39:05,764 --> 00:39:07,764 Speaker 1: I've never been inside a Burger King. I've never eaten 721 00:39:07,764 --> 00:39:10,684 Speaker 1: anything from either one of those establish men's never been 722 00:39:10,724 --> 00:39:14,684 Speaker 1: to Arby's. I have been to In and Out. I've 723 00:39:14,684 --> 00:39:18,444 Speaker 1: eaten an In and Out Burger, and I've eaten shake Shack. 724 00:39:18,884 --> 00:39:21,564 Speaker 1: But I went to shakeshaf course back when Shakeshack was 725 00:39:22,124 --> 00:39:24,644 Speaker 1: in the park. You know when the line was like 726 00:39:24,684 --> 00:39:28,244 Speaker 1: all all the way around. I you know, I still did. 727 00:39:28,484 --> 00:39:32,484 Speaker 1: That was before I lived in New York, you know, 728 00:39:32,524 --> 00:39:35,244 Speaker 1: I was. I was a teenager when it opened, and 729 00:39:35,284 --> 00:39:37,564 Speaker 1: I remember being so excited. I came to New York 730 00:39:37,884 --> 00:39:40,404 Speaker 1: and I stood in that line for I don't know 731 00:39:40,444 --> 00:39:44,124 Speaker 1: how long to get a shake shack, burger and concrete 732 00:39:44,644 --> 00:39:47,684 Speaker 1: and that was I think, yeah, that and in and 733 00:39:47,724 --> 00:39:49,924 Speaker 1: out is an in and out is I think more 734 00:39:50,604 --> 00:39:53,124 Speaker 1: more fast foody. That is the closest that I have 735 00:39:53,244 --> 00:39:57,604 Speaker 1: come to trying fast food burgers night five guys. I 736 00:39:57,644 --> 00:40:00,124 Speaker 1: tried five guys when five guys first came to New York. 737 00:40:00,124 --> 00:40:00,724 Speaker 1: Does that count? 738 00:40:01,724 --> 00:40:03,844 Speaker 2: It's the higher end you got to get into, like 739 00:40:03,924 --> 00:40:08,724 Speaker 2: the like anything beyond like Wendy's is too high end. Right, 740 00:40:08,924 --> 00:40:12,284 Speaker 2: by the way, my own stock in Shake Shock because 741 00:40:12,324 --> 00:40:14,644 Speaker 2: I'm like, they get people, They get people like you, 742 00:40:14,724 --> 00:40:18,004 Speaker 2: Maria to eat fast food, and that seems like a 743 00:40:18,044 --> 00:40:20,924 Speaker 2: good business model, you know what I mean. People would 744 00:40:20,924 --> 00:40:23,964 Speaker 2: never be caught dead sitting foot to McDonald's, right, They're like, oh, 745 00:40:24,004 --> 00:40:26,484 Speaker 2: Shake Shock, this is this is premium. This is premium. 746 00:40:26,564 --> 00:40:27,484 Speaker 2: Have you had Chipotle? 747 00:40:27,844 --> 00:40:29,164 Speaker 1: Yes, I have had Chippotle. 748 00:40:29,204 --> 00:40:32,644 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, I mean that's that's in the premium zone, sill, 749 00:40:32,764 --> 00:40:34,564 Speaker 2: I think, But like, yes, anyway. 750 00:40:34,524 --> 00:40:38,564 Speaker 1: I have had Chipotle, uh, and it was actually I 751 00:40:38,564 --> 00:40:40,964 Speaker 1: think Chipotle would be my go to if I had 752 00:40:40,964 --> 00:40:43,724 Speaker 1: to go to, like if I had to pick a 753 00:40:43,764 --> 00:40:48,004 Speaker 1: fast food place, I think Chipotle has the highest quality, 754 00:40:48,004 --> 00:40:50,324 Speaker 1: freshest ingredients out of out of the things, that. 755 00:40:50,604 --> 00:40:52,924 Speaker 2: Chipotle is the restaurant I've probably eaten at the most 756 00:40:52,924 --> 00:40:55,964 Speaker 2: times really in my life, right, yeah, because like I 757 00:40:56,044 --> 00:40:59,364 Speaker 2: used to like fucking play you know, when I left 758 00:40:59,364 --> 00:41:02,924 Speaker 2: my consulting job, I played poker online for a few years, right, 759 00:41:02,964 --> 00:41:04,564 Speaker 2: and I'd always, I don't know, I'd stay up all 760 00:41:04,644 --> 00:41:08,164 Speaker 2: night and then be like fucking famished in the afternoon. 761 00:41:08,244 --> 00:41:11,124 Speaker 2: I live like equidistant Chicago between like three Chipotles, and 762 00:41:11,164 --> 00:41:13,924 Speaker 2: so I would like diversify which are the three Chipotles 763 00:41:13,924 --> 00:41:16,444 Speaker 2: I went to? Just like going there so often that 764 00:41:16,564 --> 00:41:19,524 Speaker 2: it felt like a little bit, a little bit embarrassing. 765 00:41:19,084 --> 00:41:21,404 Speaker 1: All right, So we went from atoms to our fast 766 00:41:21,404 --> 00:41:23,164 Speaker 1: food ratings, from. 767 00:41:23,044 --> 00:41:24,884 Speaker 2: Our New England ratings to our fast food rating. 768 00:41:25,084 --> 00:41:29,364 Speaker 1: So let's let's give Eric Adams a rating if you 769 00:41:29,404 --> 00:41:32,524 Speaker 1: were a fast food chain, what would be oh to 770 00:41:32,604 --> 00:41:33,404 Speaker 1: wrap this up. 771 00:41:35,404 --> 00:41:37,604 Speaker 2: Like what's I mean, maybe like a little So here's 772 00:41:37,684 --> 00:41:43,124 Speaker 2: here's irony. I don't think that New York City is 773 00:41:43,164 --> 00:41:47,644 Speaker 2: doing so badly at all, really, right, Our crime is 774 00:41:47,684 --> 00:41:52,204 Speaker 2: lower than incomparable cities. People have left. That part's not great, 775 00:41:52,204 --> 00:41:54,404 Speaker 2: but they've kind of left most of these cities. We 776 00:41:54,524 --> 00:41:58,804 Speaker 2: have a couple of new airports that have come online. 777 00:41:58,844 --> 00:42:00,604 Speaker 2: We got a congestion pricing and a lot of this 778 00:42:00,684 --> 00:42:04,844 Speaker 2: is not Adams is doing right, but you know, property 779 00:42:04,924 --> 00:42:08,244 Speaker 2: values are doing more than fine. Right, there are still 780 00:42:08,284 --> 00:42:12,284 Speaker 2: housing stortages. But like, yeah, if you ask people kind 781 00:42:12,284 --> 00:42:13,724 Speaker 2: of how is New York doing? I mean, people are 782 00:42:13,724 --> 00:42:16,644 Speaker 2: inherently grumpy in the United States, right, But like so 783 00:42:16,724 --> 00:42:20,004 Speaker 2: if people are punishing him for the for the corruption, yeah, 784 00:42:20,004 --> 00:42:23,564 Speaker 2: as a mayor, I don't know, it seems okay, right 785 00:42:23,804 --> 00:42:29,364 Speaker 2: if people people have trouble decoupling the personal stuff from 786 00:42:29,404 --> 00:42:33,404 Speaker 2: like the legislation government stuff, understandably all. 787 00:42:33,364 --> 00:42:35,764 Speaker 1: Right, So in total, then what would he be? Is 788 00:42:35,804 --> 00:42:38,684 Speaker 1: he a McDonald's, Is he a Wendy's? Is he at Chipotle? 789 00:42:38,964 --> 00:42:43,404 Speaker 2: No, he's like a little you know, little mom and 790 00:42:43,484 --> 00:42:47,124 Speaker 2: pop Italian American place where they're still you know, they're 791 00:42:47,124 --> 00:42:49,604 Speaker 2: not gonna take credit cards still, Maria, Why why not? Well, 792 00:42:50,364 --> 00:42:52,764 Speaker 2: you know, maybe they're not paying their full a lotment 793 00:42:52,804 --> 00:42:56,244 Speaker 2: of taxes. Yeah, they have loyal customers. There's some special 794 00:42:56,324 --> 00:42:58,804 Speaker 2: rooms in the back. We're not quite sure what's going 795 00:42:58,844 --> 00:43:01,084 Speaker 2: on there. Right. The food's pretty good. You gotta stick 796 00:43:01,124 --> 00:43:03,044 Speaker 2: to the basics. You gotta stick to the chicken parm 797 00:43:03,444 --> 00:43:06,324 Speaker 2: you gotta get the fried netballs and things like that. Right. 798 00:43:06,484 --> 00:43:07,924 Speaker 2: You don't want to a venture too far, I feel, 799 00:43:07,964 --> 00:43:09,044 Speaker 2: but it's pretty good. 800 00:43:09,484 --> 00:43:11,044 Speaker 1: So if we were going chain, then he would be 801 00:43:11,044 --> 00:43:13,564 Speaker 1: closest to like a siborro anti. 802 00:43:13,924 --> 00:43:16,524 Speaker 2: Oh my god, I've never eaten a fucking saborro. Well 803 00:43:16,764 --> 00:43:24,564 Speaker 2: it's Italian, Maria. I am a respector of Italian American cuisine. 804 00:43:24,684 --> 00:43:27,164 Speaker 2: Saborro is not meaningfully Italian. 805 00:43:27,244 --> 00:43:29,964 Speaker 1: Okay, okay, fair enough, All right, Well you heard it 806 00:43:29,964 --> 00:43:33,924 Speaker 1: here first, guys, Eric Adams, small mob and pop Italian. 807 00:43:34,124 --> 00:43:35,924 Speaker 1: Definitely not Soborro siborro. 808 00:43:47,324 --> 00:43:47,644 Speaker 2: Let us. 809 00:43:47,684 --> 00:43:49,444 Speaker 1: Know what you think of the show. Reach out to 810 00:43:49,524 --> 00:43:53,764 Speaker 1: us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. Risky Business 811 00:43:53,804 --> 00:43:56,524 Speaker 1: is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. 812 00:43:55,884 --> 00:43:58,604 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool 813 00:43:58,644 --> 00:44:02,604 Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 814 00:44:02,604 --> 00:44:06,964 Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, 815 00:44:07,044 --> 00:44:09,964 Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our 816 00:44:09,964 --> 00:44:13,804 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 817 00:44:14,364 --> 00:44:16,604 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 818 00:44:16,604 --> 00:44:19,284 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again, 819 00:44:19,404 --> 00:44:21,204 Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad 820 00:44:21,244 --> 00:44:23,444 Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.