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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg dayba q A podcast. Good morning,

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Speaker 2: It's Thursday, the twelfth of March. I'm Caroline Hepka in

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Speaker 2: London and.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today. Oil prices surge

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Speaker 1: back into triple digits as Iranian strikes targets supply terminals

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Speaker 1: and tankers.

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Speaker 2: The US starts trade probes into China, the EU and

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Speaker 2: others as Trump looks to rebuild tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Plus Asia races to contain a growing energy crunch, impacting

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Speaker 1: everything from farmers to manufacturers and crematoriums.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: The price of oil has once again surpassed one hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars a barrel after the latest Iranian attacks caused further

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Speaker 1: disruption to shipping in the Gulf. Brancruzz sword by as

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Speaker 1: much as ten percent as a man cleared all ships

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Speaker 1: from its key export terminal located outside the Strait of Hormuz. Too,

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Speaker 1: oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, prompting the country's

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Speaker 1: oil terminals to suspend operations. The news came after the

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Speaker 1: International Energy Agency announced that members would release a record

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Speaker 1: four hundred million barrels from emergency reserves, but Jeff Curry,

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Speaker 1: chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Carlisle, says it

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Speaker 1: won't solve the problem.

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Speaker 3: There is no policy response that can stop this assent

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Speaker 3: and crude none. And yes, you've hear this four hundred

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Speaker 3: million barrel headline flow rate is what matters. You know,

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Speaker 3: the maximum sustainable flow rate is two million barrels per day,

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Speaker 3: so four hundred that will take them two hundred days

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Speaker 3: to get that out.

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Speaker 1: Jeff Curry was speaking there as the US said it

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Speaker 1: would be releasing one hundred and seventy two million barrels

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Speaker 1: from its strategic reserve as part of the IEA move.

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Speaker 1: US Energy Seckert You Chris Wright spoke about the announcement

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Speaker 1: on Fox News.

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Speaker 4: The release is.

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Speaker 5: Certainly out of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They'll go

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Speaker 5: over about four months, but this conflict I don't think

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Speaker 5: goes that long. I think we will have the straight

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Speaker 5: of horror moves open well before then. Exactly when you know,

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Speaker 5: I can't say, but we are working twenty four hours

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Speaker 5: of every day to get there.

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Speaker 4: But hopefully in the.

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Speaker 5: Next few weeks we will see ship traffic returning to

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Speaker 5: the strain saw.

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Speaker 1: Moose, but Chris writes words appear to be doing little

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Speaker 1: to cam markets. Sources tell Bloomberg the Chinese oil refiners

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Speaker 1: have now begune canceling a greed refined fuel export cargoes

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Speaker 1: as Beijing looks for ways to mitigate the impact of

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Speaker 1: the Iran war as.

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Speaker 2: The global energy market comes under unprecedented strain. The war

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Speaker 2: shows no sign of ending, sorikes A continuing across the region,

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Speaker 2: with it on especially hard hit by US and Israeli bombardment,

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Speaker 2: and with the war now entering its thirteenth day. The

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump has asserted that the war would

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Speaker 2: end soon, but speaking in Kentucky last night, he also

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Speaker 2: suggested that American forces will stay as long as it takes.

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Speaker 1: We have hit them harder than virtually any country in history,

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Speaker 1: and when I finished.

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Speaker 2: Yet, Donald Trump also said at that event that quote,

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Speaker 2: we don't want to leave early.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 2: That's as Iran has told regional intermediary is that for

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Speaker 2: a cease far, the US must guarantee that neither it

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Speaker 2: nor Israel will strike the country in the future. And

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Speaker 2: in a post on X President Masud possessed Kian said

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Speaker 2: that the only way to end the conflict is recognizing

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Speaker 2: Iran's legitimate rights possessed. Kian also said that a truce

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Speaker 2: would be dependent on payment of reparations.

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Speaker 1: Several top banks are telling staff to stay away from

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Speaker 1: their officers in Dubai and other locations in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: The instructions come as Iran's attacks on its Gulf neighbors continue.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's two Adebayo has more.

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Speaker 6: Several major Wall Street banks have already been allowing their

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Speaker 6: employees to work from home since the start of the

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Speaker 6: Iran war. Now some big names are instructing colleagues to

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Speaker 6: exit their offices in the region. Bloomberg understands that the

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Speaker 6: likes of Goldman Sachs and City Group have told their

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Speaker 6: staff to stay away from their Dubai offices, and some

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Speaker 6: lenders have also offered staff the option to temporarily leave

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Speaker 6: the country. The news comes as Iran continues to strike

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Speaker 6: targets in them. At least a representative for Goldman Sachs

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Speaker 6: to climb to comment, whilst City Groups said in a

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Speaker 6: statement that all of its employees are accounted for and

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Speaker 6: safe in London. He added by at Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: The European Union is warning its inflation rate could rise

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Speaker 2: above three percent this year if all in gas prices

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Speaker 2: remain higher for a prolonged period. Bloomberg understands the EU's

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Speaker 2: Economy commission A Valdis Dombrovskis told ministers that under that scenario,

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Speaker 2: up to zero point four percentage points could be knocked

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Speaker 2: off economic growth this year. Tradees are increasing bet on

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Speaker 2: the European Central Bank hiking interest rates in the event

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Speaker 2: of a significant rise in inflation. Meanwhile, the UK's Chancellor

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Speaker 2: of Rachel Reeves says it's too soon to assess the

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Speaker 2: economic impact of the war for the UK. She was

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Speaker 2: speaking to Parliament's Treasury Select Committee.

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Speaker 7: At this stage, I think it would be unwise to

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Speaker 7: speculate on what the impact on inflation, growth or interest

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Speaker 7: rates would be, but of course we are looking at

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Speaker 7: a number of scenario as a monitoring very carefully the situation.

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Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves appeared to rule out immediate help for households

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Speaker 2: and businesses. However, she went on to say nothing is

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Speaker 2: off the table when it comes to helping firms which

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Speaker 2: aren't protected by the UK's energy price cap.

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Speaker 1: The Trump administration has started the first of several trade

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Speaker 1: investigations that set the stage for new tariffs. US Trade

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Speaker 1: Representative Jemison Greer has announced his office will begin a

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Speaker 1: probe into more than a dozen major economies, including China,

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Speaker 1: the EU, India, and South Korea under Section three or

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Speaker 1: one of the Trade Act. Pinberg Steel Desis says it's

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Speaker 1: the administration's attempt to rebuild its trade policies after the

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court ruled against large parts of it.

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Speaker 4: Those executive order tariffs that Trump anounced last year. Obviously

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Speaker 4: that was pretty high risk strategy for the Trump administration.

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Speaker 4: To pursue something like this might go a long way

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Speaker 4: toward actually laying something down that can hold up going

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Speaker 4: into the future. Of course, these types of probes, I

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Speaker 4: will just caution do take in many cases months to

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Speaker 4: ultimately complete before you do see those tariffs, So it

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Speaker 4: might be a long ways up before we actually see

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Speaker 4: something take effect.

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Speaker 1: Jesus adds that the move is likely to damage relations

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Speaker 1: with the targeted countries and comes ahead of a planned

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Speaker 1: White House trip to Beijing. President Trump has repeatedly boasted

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Speaker 1: about the money brought in through his tariffs, and losing

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Speaker 1: that revenue stream is a key concern for the White House.

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Speaker 2: The UK's Prime Minister Kis Starmer appointed Peter Mandelson as

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Speaker 2: US ambassador despite being warned that his ties to disgrace

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Speaker 2: financier Jeffrey Epstein were reputational risks. The British government has

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Speaker 2: been forced to publish its vetting process, in which a

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Speaker 2: top security advisor described the hiring procedure as weirdly rushed

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Speaker 2: and raised concerns about the labor peers. Chief Secretary to

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Speaker 2: the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, insists that the documents proved

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Speaker 2: Starmer did nothing wrong.

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Speaker 7: The advice did not expose.

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Speaker 3: The depth and extent of their relationship with only became

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Speaker 3: apparent after the release of further files by Bloomberg and.

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Speaker 1: Then the United States Department for Justice.

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Speaker 2: Despite Darren Jones's defense, opposition politicians and even some of

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Speaker 2: Stalmer's own MPs are asking why the former ambassador was

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Speaker 2: paid severance pay. More documents are expected to be released

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Speaker 2: and published after a police investigation into Mandelsson finishes. Those

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Speaker 2: are our top stories for you this morning. Looking at

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Speaker 2: the markets, the Iran crisis is worst thing you see

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Speaker 2: that reflected in oil prices. Brencrew did surge above one

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Speaker 2: hundred dollars. It now sits at ninety eight dollars fifty

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Speaker 2: nine are by seven point two percent. WCI crewd features

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Speaker 2: at ninety three dollars twenty five, also up by seven percent.

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Speaker 2: European and US DOT futures are deeply in the red,

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Speaker 2: with down nine tenths of one percent for US stocks

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Speaker 2: fifty futures. As we see a slump in Asia equities,

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Speaker 2: you've also seen a huge jump in yields, evident in

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Speaker 2: Ossie and Kiwi yields, which on the ten year notes

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Speaker 2: of jumped by ten basis points this morning. Gold meanwhile

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Speaker 2: shedding about thirty bucks one hundred and fifty four dollars,

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Speaker 2: down by about four tenths of one percent. Those are

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Speaker 2: the markets right now.

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Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on the

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Speaker 1: Uranian attacks that have cent oil prices spiking higher, plus

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Speaker 1: how Asian economies are being hard to hit by the

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Speaker 1: supply disruption from the Middle East. Put another story that

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Speaker 1: we've been reading this morning on a different subject, Netflix

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Speaker 1: making a big investment in AI, Bloombergs Lucashaw reporting the

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Speaker 1: streaming giant will pay as much as six hundred million

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Speaker 1: dollars for Interpositive, which is an AI movie making company

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Speaker 1: founded by the actor Ben Affleck. Now it's interesting for

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Speaker 1: a few reasons. It's one of the largest investments in

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Speaker 1: AI by a major Hollywood studio. It's also a rare

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Speaker 1: acquisition by Netflix, which has alwaysaid it prefers to build

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Speaker 1: than buy. But it also feeds into these fears in

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Speaker 1: the film and TV industry, and I think of other

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Speaker 1: industries as well that AI will be used to eliminate

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Speaker 1: jobs and cut costs. But this particular concern that tech

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Speaker 1: companies would steal their work and use it to train

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Speaker 1: AI technology without compensating them. Now, Affleck is built Interpositive

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Speaker 1: as a tool for filmmakers. You have to film the

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Speaker 1: movie first before any of the tools become useful, because

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Speaker 1: it can make tweaks in some of the editing process

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Speaker 1: as well. But I do wonder if it's going to

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Speaker 1: be enough to cam industry fears over the impact of AI.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe there'll be a lot of chatter about it. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: it's the Oscars this weekend. I mean amazing Ben Affleck

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Speaker 2: not just kind of movie star, good looks and loads

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Speaker 2: of films onto his pull, but also a massive business venture.

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Speaker 2: I just thought it was interesting that variety of reports

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Speaker 2: that the team into positive. There are only sixteen of them,

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Speaker 2: so maybe yeah, so maybe it won't calm the chatters

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Speaker 2: about you know, jobs and so on. Anyway, a very

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Speaker 2: interesting story on the development of AI. Will put a

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Speaker 2: link to it in our show notes so that you

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Speaker 2: can read it.

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Speaker 1: Let's run back to events in the Middle East now,

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Speaker 1: where oil prices have jumped after the latest series of

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Speaker 1: attacks by around targeting oil infrastructure at least breaking these

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Speaker 1: Editor Patrick Sykes is with us for more. Patrick, good morning.

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Speaker 1: Can you tell us more about these attacks. Tankers hit

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Speaker 1: in Iraqi Waters. Bahrain says fuel tanks were struck and

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Speaker 1: Demand has ordered chips out of its port in Mina

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Speaker 1: Alpha Hal.

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Speaker 8: That's right, Yeah, we saw a real spike in attacks

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Speaker 8: on maritime infrastructure yesterday. Some of those particular ships as

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Speaker 8: you mentioned in Iraqi Waters. Iran also claiming them itself,

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Speaker 8: which it doesn't always do, and also on ports themselves.

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Speaker 8: If you look at the map of the Persian gulv

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Speaker 8: you see the breadth of these attacks. You see right

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Speaker 8: in the far northwest end towards i Rocky Waters those

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Speaker 8: attacks happening, and right down the far other end. You

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Speaker 8: see this mini port that you mentioned. That's interesting because

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Speaker 8: it's actually on the outside of the Strait of Homos

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Speaker 8: on the eastern side. That in theory was one of

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Speaker 8: the few safe places in the region where exports were continuing.

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Speaker 8: But obviously now the risk in them on to be

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Speaker 8: such that that's also become problematic and they've cleared the ports.

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Speaker 2: Okay, what does that mean then for oil supplies coming

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Speaker 2: out of the Gulf.

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Speaker 8: It just makes it even harder for supply to get

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Speaker 8: out of the region, right, we've already seen I think

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Speaker 8: that's the headline already, and that's why we've seen the

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Speaker 8: UAE and Saudi turning to those pipelines they have to

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Speaker 8: send crude to the far side of the Gulf. But

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Speaker 8: that is still just a piecemeal fix. Right Fundamentally, we've

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Speaker 8: still got a lot of tankers stuck in the inside

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Speaker 8: the Straight of Horns and very few making the break

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Speaker 8: to cross it. Those that do sometimes getting targeted. The

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Speaker 8: one thing that could make a difference is this US

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Speaker 8: naval escort, but the details of that are still uncertain,

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Speaker 8: and I think there's still a lot of concern that

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Speaker 8: if and when it happens they would themselves become a

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Speaker 8: new target for a run.

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Speaker 1: What is the latest that we're hearing from Iran and

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Speaker 1: from the US about how long this conflict could last.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, you pointed to an intro right Trump still saying

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Speaker 8: it could end soon, but also we don't want to

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Speaker 8: leave early. It's hard to know kind of where to

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Speaker 8: net those two comments off, and Iran saying that it

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Speaker 8: wants those reparations, wants recognition of its rights, which we

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Speaker 8: have to assume refers to a uranium enrichment and a

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Speaker 8: guarantee against future aggression. I mean, to me, that looks

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Speaker 8: like an option that certainly Israel likely the US would

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Speaker 8: never want to give up. That's actually something Iran was

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Speaker 8: already seeking during the nuclear talks that preceded the war,

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Speaker 8: and they weren't able to get it then. So it's

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Speaker 8: hard to see the US and Israel agreeing to it now.

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Speaker 8: So I think for the moment, particularly in light of

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Speaker 8: those maritime incidents, particularly in light of Brent still coming

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Speaker 8: up above one hundred dollars, we're still back in escalatory territory.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Patrick, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 2: That is our Middle East Breaking News editor to Patrick's

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Speaker 2: Sykes with the latest stay with us. More from Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybakeupe coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: Well, the latest spike and oil prices is putting more

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Speaker 1: pressure on supplies to Asian countries. Bloomberg has learned the

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Speaker 1: Chinese oil refiners have begun canceling a greed refined fuel

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Speaker 1: export contracts. Are Managing editor for Commodities and Energy in Asia,

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Speaker 1: Clara for Ara Marquez joins us now for more. Clara,

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Speaker 1: good to talk to you. The disruption to Middle Eastern

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Speaker 1: oil and gas supplies is creating an energy crunch in

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Speaker 1: many parts of Asia. Which countries are worst affected?

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Speaker 9: I think we're seeing it really across the region.

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Speaker 2: It's useful to remember.

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Speaker 9: Obviously we talk about a lot about oil and gas

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Speaker 9: supplies coming out of the Middle East and out of

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Speaker 9: the Persian Gulf, but it's also a huge producer of fuels,

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Speaker 9: and in particular where we're seeing the sort of sharp

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Speaker 9: end of things at the moment, it's liquefied petroleum gas.

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Speaker 9: So this is for a lot of parts of Asia,

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Speaker 9: it's essentially cooking gas. It's used in industrial processes, and

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Speaker 9: the country that is probably feeling it the most acutely

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Speaker 9: is India where we've seen restaurants cutting back broad sides, doors,

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Speaker 9: certain industries like anything that requires high temperatures like a

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Speaker 9: paint oven for autumn manufacturers, and of course it feels direct,

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Speaker 9: very directly filtering through to consumers across the rest of

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Speaker 9: the region. You're seeing impact across the fuel space, so

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Speaker 9: this would be gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and it's partly shortages,

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Speaker 9: partly the fact that the fuels aren't arriving, and it's

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Speaker 9: also remember these are emerging economies for the most part,

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Speaker 9: very price sensitive populations, so it is also about price.

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Speaker 2: Well, what sort of measure stone are government's taking in

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Speaker 2: response to all of this extraordinary measures?

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Speaker 9: Really, considering we're only sort of day thirteen of this war,

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Speaker 9: I mean, already this week we've seen and even into

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Speaker 9: the back end of last week, we're looking at countries

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Speaker 9: like Pakistan and the Philippines cutting working weeks, suspending schools,

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Speaker 9: cutting civil servants salaries in places like Pakistan. So that

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Speaker 9: really is quite acute. And remember that a lot of

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Speaker 9: the large Muslim populations in this part of the world

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Speaker 9: will also be going into eed, which in places like

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Speaker 9: Indonesia involve huge migrations of the population, So a big

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Speaker 9: spike in fuel consumption coming car.

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Speaker 1: What's the significance of these latest steps being taken by

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Speaker 1: Chinese refiners.

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Speaker 9: It's interesting China isn't a sort of fuel exporting powerhouse

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Speaker 9: in this part of the world. That would really be

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Speaker 9: Japan and Korea. But it does tell you how concerned

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Speaker 9: they are, how much this is raising for them the

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Speaker 9: specter of energy security, which is always front and center

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Speaker 9: for China anyway, and it is about protecting the domestic population.

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Speaker 9: So I think we should really read it as a

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Speaker 9: tightening of measures that they had already introduced last week.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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