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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Nick, Dick and Poul Show. I'm Nick Bilton.

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Speaker 1: I feel like when we do these intros, it's like

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Speaker 1: when you play the game of Werewolf and you're like,

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Speaker 1: I'm a villager.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nick Bilton, a writer extraordinaire.

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Speaker 3: I'm de Costello, innkeeper. Are you a.

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Speaker 4: Villager that's really had? Paul Kedrowski chaotic good?

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Speaker 1: I've decided we have a very very special episode today

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Speaker 1: because we are going to go over two things that

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Speaker 1: kind of are related in some respects. The first of

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Speaker 1: which is why an older world is a more peaceful world,

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Speaker 1: why old countries don't fight each other, which I'm very

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Speaker 1: excited to discuss. And we are also going to talk

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Speaker 1: about why reasoning explains the world that we live.

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Speaker 3: In today and motivated reasoning.

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Speaker 1: Motivated reasoning explains all reasoning stopped explaining things several years ago.

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Speaker 1: Let's just jump in, Gel, you have something you wanted

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Speaker 1: to share. Yeah, you're you're you're leading the show today,

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Speaker 1: my friend, I'm just napping.

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Speaker 3: The data is actually impressive on the aging pop Countries

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Speaker 3: with older populations don't go to war.

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Speaker 2: I just have one quick question before you get to

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Speaker 2: this data.

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Speaker 4: Is there a.

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Speaker 1: Reason that you had your Polktrowsky dot com uh embedded

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Speaker 1: in the grass?

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Speaker 2: Did you want us to advertise about that?

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Speaker 4: That's from my paid service, which you can subscribe to.

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Speaker 4: Oh got it, Thanks for the promo problem. Yeah. So

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Speaker 4: this this was just something we came up in a

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Speaker 4: conversation with some some hedge fund guys I was talking to.

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Speaker 4: We were talking about how the argument that people may

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Speaker 4: because the US is heading towards and there's this a

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Speaker 4: whole bunch of stuff out there, but the US is

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Speaker 4: heading for kind of a crack up or already is

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Speaker 4: in a kind of crack up, and then crack ups

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Speaker 4: inevitably end in civil war because this is how countries resolved.

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Speaker 4: In countries who can't resolve things through political and peaceful

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Speaker 4: means go to war. And I was saying, I think

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Speaker 4: it's wild, regardless of how you feel about where the

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Speaker 4: US is at, that it seems really unlikely just for

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Speaker 4: demographic reasons, that this would happen in the US. And

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Speaker 4: these guys were all arguing, no, no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 4: it's inevitable. This is what's going to happen. So that's

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Speaker 4: when I went back and I looked at you know,

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Speaker 4: two hundred years of data and said, yeah, it just

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Speaker 4: doesn't happen the median age. Well, turn it another way

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Speaker 4: around when the US, and I'll pose it as a question,

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Speaker 4: how old was the median age mean age in the

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Speaker 4: US when the US had during the Civil War.

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Speaker 2: Twenty nineteen nineteen.

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Speaker 4: Wow, freaking crazy. I had no idea the US what

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Speaker 4: is it today? Thirty nine thirty nine? And so the

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Speaker 4: thing that you in this if you go back and

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Speaker 4: you start looking at all these countries, you look at

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Speaker 4: civil wars, and you look at all these sort of it.

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Speaker 3: Makes sense because if you're a nineteen year old guy,

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Speaker 3: you're like, I early want to like at that person

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Speaker 3: across im. And when you're like my age, you're like,

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Speaker 3: I really want soup.

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Speaker 4: Or if I hit them, I'm worried I may have

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Speaker 4: to have small bone injuries as.

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Speaker 3: They it's, by the way, with the same vigor.

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Speaker 4: So I'm just a passionate about the soup as I

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Speaker 4: was about hitting Zooe. But this idea that it's there's

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Speaker 4: a crazy age factor associated with this stuff, I think

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Speaker 4: for me anyways, it was startling, and I did, for one,

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Speaker 4: I didn't realize how young the US was during the

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Speaker 4: Civil War in terms of mean age, not just so

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Speaker 4: young as a country, but young in terms of the

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Speaker 4: mean age. And then you start looking across all these conflicts,

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Speaker 4: it turns out to fairly universally be true that for

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Speaker 4: the most part the mean age is under thirty that countries,

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Speaker 4: where as people get out that the likelihood of there

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Speaker 4: being some kind of military breakdown inside really not that

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Speaker 4: you might not be in a war in another country

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Speaker 4: like the Second World War, the US was obviously much older,

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Speaker 4: was like twenty eight or thirty. I pulled into it,

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Speaker 4: but then I pulled into it. Yeah right, this wasn't

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Speaker 4: I'd like.

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Speaker 3: To have soup, but I gotta go heat.

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Speaker 4: To the guy, hit a guy. I gotta go somewhere else.

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Speaker 4: I just I don't know what I found that. I'm

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Speaker 4: just completely startled.

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Speaker 2: That's totally fascinating question.

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Speaker 3: It has profound implications for like what's going on right now,

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Speaker 3: I mean in the US and you're everywhere, so think

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Speaker 3: about I mean, the thing that immediately jumped out at

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Speaker 3: me when you sent around that graft was I mean,

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Speaker 3: I say this kind of half jokingly, but China kind

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Speaker 3: of has to attack Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: Now, No it's there's a good example.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, right, Like every month that goes by, they're closer

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Speaker 3: to having a half a billion people over the age

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Speaker 3: of sixty one of the definitely they want dumplings, had

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Speaker 3: soup ouch? All right, Look, it's.

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Speaker 4: One of the fastest China is one of the fastest

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Speaker 4: aging societies on Earth, and that's exactly what port.

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Speaker 1: Can I just back up a second? Okay, So Russia, Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the numbers are, forty one?

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 4: Ukraine is the most interesting exception to the rule because

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Speaker 4: Ukraine was the oldest country in the last one hundred

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Speaker 4: years to have a civil conflict. The second oldest was Russia,

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Speaker 4: and the US is obviously at thirty nine, but currently

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Speaker 4: not at war with themselves, or at least not so

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Speaker 4: you can tell.

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Speaker 1: So is when you look when you factor in technology,

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Speaker 1: drone warfare, things like that, which you could do while

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Speaker 1: you're eating soup, right, right, Doesn't that change the whole theory?

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Speaker 4: No, But it goes back to the willingness to have

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Speaker 4: the entire thing, like the willingness to get into a

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Speaker 4: civil war. It's not just the tools via which you

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Speaker 4: conduct the war. You could argue that the tools make

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Speaker 4: it a little bit more likely that you would have

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Speaker 4: it with increasing age. But it's also there has to

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Speaker 4: be this societal feeling back to Dick's point that you know,

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Speaker 4: a bunch of nineteen year olds kind of mobbing about

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Speaker 4: during the time of the Civil War and saying, screw it,

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Speaker 4: I got nothing else to do. Let's take on the

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Speaker 4: south right. And that's a huge factor. So it's not

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Speaker 4: just the means by which you conduct the war.

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Speaker 3: Are you just referring to the Civil War in the

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Speaker 3: way southern people would the War of Northern aggressia?

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Speaker 4: That's true. Actually, wow, it's not that at all.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, however, so maybe the Russia Ukraine, you know,

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Speaker 3: Putin's eyes on Ukraine are isn't there also this sort

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Speaker 3: of you know, before it's too late, I'm on my

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Speaker 3: way out, the declining power, oh my last grasp. But

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Speaker 3: you would think that that would you would think that

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Speaker 3: that would drive some of this. I mean, it certainly

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Speaker 3: seems to be what's happening with with Russia and Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: this sort of last gass back at empire on my

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Speaker 3: way out out the window.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you would think that It's just it's not

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Speaker 4: very common. Yeah, okay, so you don't see it.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't show up in the data.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't show up in the data. So it's not

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Speaker 4: that it never happens. I mean, this isn't lots of physics,

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Speaker 4: but it doesn't show up. So it's my you know,

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Speaker 4: you would expect it there, You might expect it like

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Speaker 4: with Turkey or somewhere else where. You've got to Yeah,

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Speaker 4: so you see these exceptions.

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Speaker 3: We just talked about Russia. We just said, Russia, where

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Speaker 3: were you the last five minutes? Literally the whole lest Russia.

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Speaker 4: Focus in my friend.

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Speaker 2: Russia.

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Speaker 3: She might.

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Speaker 4: But it's a good question, though I don't know. Maybe

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Speaker 4: I don't know whether or not technology will change it

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Speaker 4: very much. I mean, I suppose you could have argued

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Speaker 4: that technology would have changed it at any point with

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Speaker 4: any new technology we had for warfare, like why not

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Speaker 4: launch more nuclear weapons after World War two because we're

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Speaker 4: young about bombs.

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Speaker 1: But also I think the technology aspect of it is

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Speaker 1: that you used to be able to kill a soldier

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Speaker 1: with a pitchfork, and now you can't because of technology.

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Speaker 1: So it's so there's probably the factor that in Syria, Russia,

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Speaker 1: places like that, there is a large number of the

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Speaker 1: population who I'm sure would love to create a civil

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Speaker 1: war America too, of a civil war that it would

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Speaker 1: lead to change that they believe is the just direction

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Speaker 1: of their country. But they can't because the militarization of

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Speaker 1: the police and the military and the dictatorships within those

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Speaker 1: countries will make it completely impossible.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I think I think that's absolutely true. But

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Speaker 4: back to the earlier point, I think you also just

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Speaker 4: can't get a ground swell of support for it because

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Speaker 4: people are busy eating soup or whatever they're doing.

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Speaker 3: So with the question is it predictive? So, for example,

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Speaker 3: in Sub Saharan Africa, you have very young populations Tanzania,

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Speaker 3: Daras Solama's predicted to grow by leaps and bounds in

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Speaker 3: the next ten years, Malli Niger their average age. There

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Speaker 3: is a civil war US style like in the late teens,

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Speaker 3: is it like, do you did the data say? Oh?

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Speaker 3: Look was kind of the answer to that. That's what's coming.

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Speaker 4: That's why the Arab Spring happened. You had all these

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Speaker 4: young populations, Yes, but the Arab Spring was not going

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Speaker 4: to happen in like I don't know the four corners

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Speaker 4: of the US, right, I mean with the older population

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Speaker 4: had to happen. I'd argue in a place like that,

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Speaker 4: and in places like that where the mean age was

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Speaker 4: ridiculously young, and it would be.

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Speaker 3: Great, It would be great if this was all true

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Speaker 3: until the average population age you became eighty and that

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Speaker 3: was like, once it hits eighty, it's all out war.

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Speaker 2: This is this is the thing.

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Speaker 1: Watch, watch, this is the thing that's happened recently in Iran.

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Speaker 1: It's the it's the youth boll it and they it's

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Speaker 1: the sorry, it's what youth youth bulge. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: what's the I don't know. Them've got kind of a million,

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Speaker 1: you know, one of.

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Speaker 3: Youth.

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Speaker 4: I got like a mini a mini baby boom going on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then you have and they're all disproportionately.

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Speaker 1: They don't have jobs, they don't have a future, they

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Speaker 1: don't have and so they they go into the street

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Speaker 1: and they don't want to they want they want change, they.

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Speaker 4: Want change in regimes. Yeah, and that's that was the

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Speaker 4: story of the Arab spring. But it's also been the

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Speaker 4: story I think in Iran. Yeah, and it's it's this again,

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Speaker 4: driven by this young horn. Like I saw the statistic today,

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Speaker 4: I think I said it around, but I'll just pose

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Speaker 4: it as a quiz question. What percentage of the of

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Speaker 4: babies born this year will be born in Africa plus Asia?

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Speaker 4: Did you see that? I said?

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Speaker 3: Sixty?

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Speaker 4: Way higher?

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Speaker 2: Are you for real?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: What's the number?

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Speaker 4: Eighty six? Eighty six percent of babies worldwide this year

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Speaker 4: will be born in African Asia? It gets crazy and

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Speaker 4: again to trace that forward, what does that mean? It

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Speaker 4: means that the places that aren't African Asia are aging

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Speaker 4: really fast, right because they're not having as many young people,

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Speaker 4: and so as a result, those will be the most

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Speaker 4: peaceful places. To this way I'm thinking, and the places

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Speaker 4: that are having all these babies, it's going to be

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Speaker 4: the place will be the places to watch with respect us.

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Speaker 1: But the but then the most peaceful places can use

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Speaker 1: technology to kill the other places.

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Speaker 4: I like how you always bring it back to dron.

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Speaker 3: It could be, yeah, you're having this weird drone of session.

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Speaker 2: Well, I've been I watched you know what it is?

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Speaker 2: I got. I got into watching.

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Speaker 3: Boys this sessions.

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Speaker 2: I shouldn't even say this out loud, but I will

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Speaker 2: so green No, I got.

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Speaker 1: Into watching the the Ukrainians killed the Russians on the drones. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's a fascinating, fascinating psychological I would say experiment, but

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Speaker 1: it didn't really try to do an experiment. It was

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Speaker 1: just kill killing, But it's fascinating to see. How I

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Speaker 1: watched it. I think it was a documentary. I think

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Speaker 1: Vice did it. It was like a forty minute documentary where

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Speaker 1: they went with the guys making the drones and flying

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Speaker 1: them and like they're just sitting there smoking cigarettes and

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Speaker 1: it's almost like they're playing a video game. But it

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Speaker 1: was a really fascinating psychological thing to see, like to

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Speaker 1: see how they're just kind of remote control the remote

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Speaker 1: control weaponry. And one of the couple of the guys

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Speaker 1: were young, and a couple of them were should have

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Speaker 1: been eating soup.

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Speaker 4: So what your argument is, like the residents of the

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Speaker 4: village is in Florida are going to be sending out

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Speaker 4: drones maybe you never know, just to take us the

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Speaker 4: rest of us on. So, so the idea that the

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Speaker 4: places that aren't in that eighty six percent, which is

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Speaker 4: to say North America, East Asia, Australia and so on,

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Speaker 4: those places you would expect are going to become even

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Speaker 4: more peaceful. So in a weird way, what's happening right now.

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Speaker 4: This is what I was arguing of the day. It's

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Speaker 4: kind of like a death rattle. It's like people seeing

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Speaker 4: it's coming that this is my last chance yea to

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Speaker 4: really get a break stuff right, like with the Beastie Boys.

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Speaker 4: And I want to break stuff now because I know

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Speaker 4: we won't be able to. And it's I don't think

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Speaker 4: obviously it's incoherent, like people don't know that, but I

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Speaker 4: think they can sense it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you definitely get the feeling. And again going

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Speaker 3: back to some thing we were talking about earlier with

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Speaker 3: the aging populations of Japan and Korea, like there's no

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Speaker 3: you know, in the US, there's we're going to bomb

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Speaker 3: I Rin and you know, there's all this sort of strife.

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Speaker 3: You don't get the sense Japan and Korea South Korea

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Speaker 3: feel like, man, let's just let's let's call it a day. Up.

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Speaker 4: I'm checking out right about war war.

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Speaker 3: Talking about it seriously, right, I mean, you don't get

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Speaker 3: any any like you don't hear Japan saying we're going

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Speaker 3: to increase our defense spending this year's.

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Speaker 4: Turning that around, Like the mean age of the of

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Speaker 4: Japanese during the period up to pro Harbor was like

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Speaker 4: twenty one twenty, right, whereas either one of the oldest

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Speaker 4: societies on earth. So, you know, you start looking at

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Speaker 4: it in those terms, it's not particularly surprising that they

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Speaker 4: were willing to sign on to this open ended UH

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Speaker 4: military campaign.

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Speaker 3: And so what about countries where the immigrant population is

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Speaker 3: young and U that's non immigrant population is older.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think you'd have to.

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Speaker 4: I haven't seen data on it be interesting whether or

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Speaker 4: not there's the same level of national cohesion like I

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Speaker 4: want to I want to do.

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Speaker 3: Not the same level of national cohesion. And maybe it's

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Speaker 3: sort of explains I mean it does. It certainly explains

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Speaker 3: the rise of our right parties and places like the nationalism,

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Speaker 3: et cetera.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, where does China fit into all this?

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Speaker 1: Because China's got h five hundred million.

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Speaker 3: But it feels like you were in another room. You

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Speaker 3: know when I talk I won a second, it's enlarging you.

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Speaker 2: You said the joke about Taiwan, I got it was.

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Speaker 3: I said they're going to be I said that, no,

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Speaker 3: one hundred million finished the question.

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Speaker 1: Yes, so we said the five hundred million people, but

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Speaker 1: they are on there's the theory that they are the

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Speaker 1: next superpower.

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Speaker 2: Right, but to be a superpower, you have to be

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Speaker 2: dominant in.

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Speaker 1: The global conflicts. So how does that play out? That's

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Speaker 1: my question?

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Speaker 2: Does that that's a different question than your question.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's the same point because it has to happen

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Speaker 4: now or never.

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Speaker 1: No, but that's not going to happen now, so it's

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Speaker 1: gonna So then the answer is never.

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Speaker 2: So then they don't become the next superpower.

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Speaker 1: No, and who well, who knows, but it's going to

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Speaker 1: be Malli molli.

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Speaker 4: No, it's much more likely to be some you know,

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Speaker 4: constellation of African countries, and it is to be oh

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Speaker 4: absolutely for exactly again for this fascinating.

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Speaker 3: A billion people who are going to be over the

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Speaker 3: age of sixty.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, it's just not gonna happen. They're not going

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Speaker 4: to have the same So this is the chance, right,

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Speaker 4: this is why. And not only that, I mean the

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Speaker 4: the demographics of the country. So I think I saw

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Speaker 4: this the other day that there were more males aboarded

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Speaker 4: in China during the one child policy than the current population.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, that's crazy.

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Speaker 4: So think through that. So they've they've consciously conducted not

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Speaker 4: just an experiment that made the country older, but they

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Speaker 4: also obviously skewed it with respect to the gender breakdown.

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Speaker 4: And so both of those together mean that from the

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Speaker 4: standpoint of thinking about an older world as a safer world,

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Speaker 4: that they pretty much did themselves. They did their chances

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Speaker 4: in it had to kind of had to happen. Like

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Speaker 4: Tuesday right.

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Speaker 3: On the on the topic of the let's go, Let's

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Speaker 3: go to the US and Iran. Now, US is older population.

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Speaker 3: You potentially trying to steer clear of politics, could argue

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Speaker 3: that you have an administration that likes to uh help out.

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Speaker 3: It's people who pray, praise it and you know, and

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Speaker 3: do do do do their bidding. How do you how

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Speaker 3: do you feel just talk about that? How do you

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Speaker 3: How does the US I RAN potential US I RAN

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Speaker 3: conflict feels like inevitable. The US feels like we're attacking Iran.

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Speaker 3: It feels like we are.

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Speaker 2: But the question is is with what severity?

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Speaker 3: Is it A I love that this podcast will probably

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Speaker 3: air after we attack around and they'll be like, is

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Speaker 3: he a little I don't know about you, guys. I

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Speaker 3: think those missiles that feels like an attack to me.

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Speaker 4: You are watching the headlines. Did you see all of that?

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Speaker 1: The question is is what's the severity. Is it just

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Speaker 1: drop a couple of bombs or is it is it

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Speaker 1: like a full scale invasion?

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Speaker 4: Wow? My mind. And this goes back to the Venezuelan

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Speaker 4: adventure is that.

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Speaker 2: It just feels to me at adventure whatever it was.

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Speaker 4: But there's no appetite in the US for and I

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Speaker 4: hate this expression, but to have whatever they call it,

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Speaker 4: boots on the ground. Have people in the country perfectly

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Speaker 4: happy to to What was the old line that was

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Speaker 4: was it was during the Obomba administration where they said

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Speaker 4: I sending expensive bombs to the camels in the ass.

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Speaker 2: With Colin Powell said I don't want to. I don't

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Speaker 2: want to send a three million dollar bomb to blow

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Speaker 2: up a twelve dollars tent.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, something like that. And of course right now

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Speaker 4: the appetite is completely turned around. That's exactly what we

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Speaker 4: want to do because it feels like we did a thing,

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Speaker 4: but we didn't put American lives at risk by putting

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Speaker 4: them on the ground of these countries. So, you know,

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Speaker 4: an answer to your question that feels like the form

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Speaker 4: it will take because you can declare victory and not

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Speaker 4: have anybody on the ground worrying about you know, how

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Speaker 4: are you going to protect them or anything else. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I don't know what you think, but that'd be my guess.

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Speaker 3: I think that I feel like I feel like this

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Speaker 3: administration likes to do things where they get to be

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Speaker 3: tough guy and don't have to make any sacrifices. So

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Speaker 3: that will argue for bombing Iran and doing whatever else

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Speaker 3: they have to do and shoot doing doing what you

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Speaker 3: just said is a three million dollar bomb to blow

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Speaker 3: up a twelve dollars tent, and well then we'll go

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Speaker 3: we we did it. And now they're now they're you know,

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Speaker 3: no longer able to go harm people. Yeah, and then

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Speaker 3: they'll leave.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but then they'll go harm people.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well that but to that point though, that because Iran

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Speaker 4: is relatively young, and it's a younger mean age than Venezuela.

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Speaker 4: For example, the likelihood of a stable let's say there's

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Speaker 4: a regime change in Iran, the likelihood of it being

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Speaker 4: stable is even lower than the likelihood of it being

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Speaker 4: stable in Venezuela. For exactly this reason that there is

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Speaker 4: a very young population. There is this kind of you know,

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Speaker 4: youth bulge going through, and so the likelihood of them saying, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm cool with all of this, this is good.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the data say, does really say that young countries fight? Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: and want to fight?

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Speaker 4: Right? Yeah? Right.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's predicted, it's almost predictive.

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Speaker 4: It's such and such a strong effect, especially if there

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Speaker 4: are a mean age is under thirty, which is the

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Speaker 4: case with respect to Iran for example, And and so

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Speaker 4: the likelihood you know, you can kind of pull game

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Speaker 4: that out and think like, Okay, fine, this is something

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Speaker 4: happens and for whatever reason there's regime change, and it's

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Speaker 4: like it's not going to be.

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Speaker 3: A yeah, it's not going to be like ay, it's

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Speaker 3: Phil finally like the Shaw's grandson or whoever that is

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Speaker 3: isn't coming back. Yeah no, and to a peaceful like

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Speaker 3: welcome ceremony with duck alarange.

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Speaker 4: Or you were an equivalent.

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Speaker 3: Classic think a classic Persian dish.

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Speaker 4: I've had that interest.

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Speaker 2: How do you guys think a rand plays out?

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Speaker 4: Well, like exactly like that, that's it. I think it's

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Speaker 4: just some sort of strategic offensive like that where you've

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Speaker 4: got a bunch of expensive missiles send into a far

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Speaker 4: away place. You don't have any people. I still struggle

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Speaker 4: to believe that any of this will cause regime change.

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Speaker 2: Which, yeah, I agree, which is the I agree with that.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure he's being he being our president, is being

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Speaker 3: informed that this isn't how you affect regime change. And

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Speaker 3: I'm sure also that he doesn't want to hear that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but I'll something, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 4: It's just it's.

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Speaker 2: The symbolism and the action that I get to say

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Speaker 2: I did it.

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Speaker 4: But I think, like from our standple, what's interesting is

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Speaker 4: thinking about it, like why might this be different than Venezuela.

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Speaker 4: And one of the reasons why is because of this

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Speaker 4: reason we're talking about, this demographic reason that it's the

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Speaker 4: age pyramid in the country matters immensely in terms of

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Speaker 4: the likelihood of it being a relatively civil place afterwards

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Speaker 4: and looking for more stability, or if they were unstable,

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Speaker 4: and they're saying, you know what, this is a good

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Speaker 4: excuse to go attack each other and we'll form into

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Speaker 4: you know, like, what was it Rwanda? Where after the

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Speaker 4: French left and all of a sudden you had this

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Speaker 4: sort of genocidal impulse and three different the various tribes

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Speaker 4: in Rwanda that were essentially trying to extermin each other.

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Speaker 4: Should surprise you zero if something like that were to happen,

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Speaker 4: not just because it's a tribal population, but because it's

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Speaker 4: a very young population like Rowanda was back in that

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00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 4: same period.

442
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: Should we move on to our second topic? It's fun.

443
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 3: The interesting thing about the Iran situation is, I mean

444
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 3: sort of danced around this, but it could easily be

445
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 3: the case that you, I mean, people will find this

446
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 3: sort of a crazy thing to say, but it's not

447
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 3: true for the Iranians themselves, but maybe it's true for us.

448
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,479
Speaker 3: You could easily find yourself in a situation where you're like, man,

449
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 3: I wish that I had totally guy was back in

450
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 3: there and things were sort of calmed down because.

451
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 2: They could get Yeah, it could get so much worse.

452
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, it could get just certainly going to be a

453
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 3: lot worse internally, but that could also as as we

454
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 3: already know, when things are when things are troublesome and

455
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,160
Speaker 3: Iran in Iraq, things are troublesome everywhere else.

456
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 4: No, that's a really good point. It could be it

457
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 4: could be a lot worse.

458
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: But for the people who live there and don't, well,

459
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 2: it's different.

460
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 3: When things aren't going well over there, things aren't going

461
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 3: well everywhere else.

462
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:50,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I found it fascinating when the when the how

463
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 1: much of war these days is a public relations ploy.

464
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 2: Like when Israel and Iran were bombing each other, they

465
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 2: would give each other a call and be like, hey,

466
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 2: we just we just sent on over. It's gonna hit

467
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 2: you here and where.

468
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 1: You know, it was like there's this discourse that it's like, well,

469
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 1: we're gonna can we have the last word or is

470
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 1: it you? And it really has become this very fascinating

471
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 1: in the age of media and the internet and.

472
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 4: Well and in the age of remote control warfare. I mean,

473
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 4: you can do that if I don't have to put

474
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 4: troops on the ground, I can do all kinds of

475
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 4: signaling and say, you know, just that thing, those bright

476
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 4: lights not constellations, those are incoming cruise missiles, right, And

477
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 4: you can do that. But you can't do that once

478
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 4: you start putting people on the ground and saying, you know,

479
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 4: we actually want to drive a you know, a regime

480
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 4: change and a new administration, and none of that works.

481
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 4: You can't signal anything.

482
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: Have we talked to I don't think we've talked about

483
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 2: the future of war, right, have we about war war,

484
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 2: drone warfare and drones? Sorry? No, but it's like what

485
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:47,479
Speaker 2: somebody was telling me the other day.

486
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 1: I was telling to someone about this who works in defense,

487
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 1: and they were saying that the future it does become

488
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: machine versus machine.

489
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 2: Oh of course, right, And then.

490
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: It's not who has the machines left at the end,

491
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: it's who has taken out the leadership. And that is

492
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: what happened in Venezuela. Essentially, we went in there and

493
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: we got rid of that. There was a regime change

494
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: and and and not really what's that?

495
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 3: Not really?

496
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,199
Speaker 2: Yes, but there was one that was more sympathetic, like a.

497
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 3: Mailing address change. Yeah, yeah, no forwarding address enough to

498
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 3: change your Christmas card to MISSUS President.

499
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: Yes, But but the future of this and it's fascinating

500
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 1: when you start to think about what you're talking about

501
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: in this data.

502
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: Not that I send Christmas cards to Venezuela, you want

503
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 3: to be.

504
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 4: Clear about, to be clear, not yet contrary to public reports,

505
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 4: just what.

506
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: How it all plays out when when there are no

507
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 2: quota on the ground.

508
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 4: But you're seeing that right now, there's this ongoing strup

509
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 4: fight between the US Defense Department and Anthropic. I'm sure

510
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 4: you've seen it, yes, which is actually worth which is right.

511
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 4: So there's the future of war playing out in a

512
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 4: way that's different from the usual idea that we're going

513
00:23:58,040 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 4: to be sending in autonomous drones and doing this.

514
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: Talking about that.

515
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah.

516
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 4: So it turns out that Anthropic one of the large,

517
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 4: one of the large, one of the large language model,

518
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 4: frontier model companies, AI companies.

519
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: You don't have to go that far back. We know who.

520
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 4: Would love each other very much too far.

521
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 1: What happens all right, okay, No, this is they have

522
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 1: a large language model, so they have the defend is large.

523
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 4: Defense department is hugely reliant on Entropic. We're not clear

524
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 4: on exactly what they're you using it for. It could

525
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 4: be in the context of palent here, it could be

526
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 4: in a lot of different context but the bottom line

527
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 4: is it's all over inside the Defense Department and Anthropic

528
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 4: as what do they call them, the Public interest Corporation

529
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 4: or something like this. They have said, we don't want

530
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 4: to be used for these purposes, but it's too late.

531
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 3: It's where these purposes are. You can't you can't use

532
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: our technology to kill without a human in the mix.

533
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 3: You can't just be used to have autonomous.

534
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 2: But they're okay to kill.

535
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 3: There's just no they've said, you can't use our technology

536
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 3: for these are the guardrails. You can use our technology

537
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 3: to a human in the loop, you can't have to

538
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 3: be a human in the loop. And there are several

539
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: other things. Yeah, go ahead, And the defense and.

540
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 4: The tournament offence has said, no, you need to remove

541
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 4: all guardrails and restrictions and that's the way we because

542
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 4: we were using it. And if you don't do that,

543
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 4: then we'll declare you a dangerous threat, and which is

544
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 4: kind of perverse because in a sense they're trying to

545
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 4: prevent a threat by preventing that from happening. But nevertheless,

546
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 4: that's the club that the Defense Department's using to say

547
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 4: you need to remove the guardrails and allow us to

548
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 4: use it in whatever way we see fit. And they've

549
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 4: also gone out and talked to open Ay and talk

550
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 4: to Grock and having conversations with those things. And it

551
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 4: sounds like Grock's already it's put me in coach. Coach

552
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 4: I'm good with.

553
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 2: But they did, didn't they just come to a deal

554
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 2: with Grock?

555
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 4: Yeah? I just did. Yeah, recently did, and so they

556
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,479
Speaker 4: didn't have a problem with the whole guardrail thing.

557
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 2: And so they're no longer going to use anthropic.

558
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 4: No, because this is the thing, and this is what

559
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 4: they're hinting at, is that it's much more. And that's

560
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 4: the part I found the most interesting was how extensively

561
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 4: you the idea that it's so extensively used that the

562
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 4: Defense Department officials who were quoted unnamed officials were quoted

563
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 4: saying that it would be very difficult to remove it.

564
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 4: And I was thought, you know what, that's that that's

565
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 4: already happened inside of the Defense Department. Not an early

566
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 4: adopter of technology historically, it's it's so extensively adopted AI

567
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 4: right now that the idea of doing a rip and

568
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 4: replace and saying I'm going to put in something else

569
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 4: tells you a bunch of things. The most important one,

570
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 4: I think is that AI is really good at war. Yeah,

571
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 4: that that they've adopted it so quickly, right.

572
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 2: Up there with in what in what way do you

573
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: think it's good at war?

574
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 4: I don't know. That's the thing that I found interesting.

575
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 4: I genuinely don't know.

576
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, you can look at no, you

577
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 3: can look at the battlefield reports, look at any of

578
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 3: the battlefield reports out of Ukraine and et cetera. You

579
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: just you were talking about this the drones. Yeah, it's remote.

580
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 3: These are all you got to stay drawn again, it's

581
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 3: all remote. And then the ability to use it without

582
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 3: human in the loop will be like if we can

583
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 3: kill people from a long way away without and the

584
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: computer will figure out which the computer will you know,

585
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 3: the old like, you know, we'll do whatever and let

586
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: God sort it out. It's like, well, we'll point the

587
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: camera at it and let the computer sort it out

588
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 3: and figure out who's shoot and who not to shoot.

589
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 4: But just the idea that we're already at that point.

590
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 4: I would never have guessed that. I would never have

591
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 4: guessed that anthropic was so widely or any large language,

592
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 4: but was so widely used to the Defense Department that

593
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 4: if you said no, no, no, you have to change

594
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 4: to this one, that they'd say no. I would have

595
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 4: thought they'd say, oh, you know whatever, we just used

596
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 4: it to summarize memos. You know, we'll change. It'll be fine.

597
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 4: But it's clearly got an operational role, and there's even

598
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 4: been I saw report recently that it was extensively used

599
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 4: in the Venezuelan attacks. I don't know that. And and

600
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 4: the idea that that's the case and it's so you know,

601
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 4: insinuated inside of the system is incredible to me. So

602
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 4: that's the that's to your point about the future of

603
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 4: war though, I mean.

604
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: What's what's to stop North Korea and others from using

605
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: AIS to to figure out how they can't?

606
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 2: So we are all ships rising?

607
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 4: Well, that's the argument, right, is that all ships are rising,

608
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 4: and that these tiny, tiny differences between models at that

609
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 4: point like a difference. You know, it doesn't make a

610
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 4: difference to software engineers that you get ninety seven point

611
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 4: two percent on a test and someone else gets ninety four.

612
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 4: But maybe in defense it does make a difference. Maybe

613
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 4: those tiny differences matter.

614
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: Or the fact, don't know, the fact.

615
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: That it's all become kind of a commodity actually gives

616
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: me hope that we won't kill ourselves with AI because

617
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: the AIS will be able to stop the other AIS.

618
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 4: That's never gonna happen.

619
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 2: You just think we're done.

620
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, how many times do you have to see the

621
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,439
Speaker 3: optimist view of things not come true before you stop

622
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: with their hopeful nonsense?

623
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: I just hope that it's That was a moment I

624
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 2: was like, oh, maybe we'll be fine.

625
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 4: No, no, I don't there was really Nick. There was

626
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 4: actually a report out the other day speaking of technology

627
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 4: for war. It is showing how when you use large

628
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: language models in the context of simulated nuclear warfare, they're

629
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 4: like vastly more aggressive than he has and zero compromises,

630
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 4: none of this negotiation thing.

631
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 2: They escalate to nuclear war. Almost inside you're like, hey,

632
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 2: can we We're gonna blow you off.

633
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: I didn't even finish my question yet pretty much though,

634
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: which is so it's it's crazy, it's scary.

635
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 4: But that's again seeing that it's already all over the

636
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 4: Defense department. With that in mind, I think is I

637
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 4: think really important and much more important in a lot

638
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 4: of ways than what's going on with drones.

639
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 3: Honestly, once AI has the launch codes, they're just gonna

640
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 3: it's gonna launch. Canna be like, what have we been

641
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 3: waiting for?

642
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is what is Yes, finally, but we'll figure

643
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 2: it out.

644
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 4: But that's why I think, like people miss they look

645
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 4: at things like the drones, and these are really visible

646
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 4: signs of what.

647
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: You were just weren't you.

648
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 4: They look at that and say it's like these are

649
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 4: really visible signs. All of this stuff is under the hood,

650
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,959
Speaker 4: like we've changed all the plumbing of war and it's fascinating, right,

651
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 4: And this happened so quickly, and you can't rip it out.

652
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 4: The thought of ripping it out of the people, Yeah,

653
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 4: I can't do that.

654
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 3: I have one more old countries not going to war

655
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 3: a question and that I don't know the answer to.

656
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 3: And I'm curious if you if you have any thoughts

657
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: about it. I bet if you think about again, if

658
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 3: you think about the extremes like Japan and China and

659
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 3: aging populations in the US, you have to end up

660
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 3: spending when we've talked about this before, you spend an

661
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 3: inordinate amount of money on healthcare and running deficits aside.

662
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 3: It may be not it may be the case that

663
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 3: older countries aren't peaceful because they're you know, tired, and

664
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 3: what peace it's they're peaceful because they're broke and they

665
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 3: spent all their money. You're spending all your money, you know,

666
00:30:58,240 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 3: guns and butter and instead.

667
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 4: I just a good point. I hadn't thought it's a

668
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 4: good point though, Like look at Japan deficits for like

669
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 4: thirty years and it hasn't really mattered and then, but

670
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: what it has mattered is that they haven't been able

671
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 4: to build up a new military, even if they probably

672
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 4: wanted to, because they're business. They're broke, right busy. So, yeah,

673
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 4: countries that run all they tend to have big deficits

674
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 4: and you can't use it for more, you know, all

675
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 4: the purposes you might like. No, yeah, it's probably true.

676
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: But there's also probably a question of if when a

677
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: country is getting to the end of its life, and

678
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: if that happens and that they're like fuck it, like

679
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: Israel has a Israel has.

680
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 2: It's called the David Accord.

681
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: I think of something like that where there's a system

682
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: in place that if anything ever happens that could lead

683
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: to the end of Israel, that they blow the whole

684
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:47,719
Speaker 1: fucking thing up.

685
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: And what movie do you watch?

686
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: It's I've read I've read all the articles about it's fascinating.

687
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: You should read about it's really fascinating. They literally it's

688
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 1: based on this old biblical story of the guy who

689
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: made the building laps and killed everyone who was going

690
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 1: to kill him, and and yeah, and so so I'm

691
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: I wonder if, yes.

692
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 3: Did you just make up a biblical story.

693
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 4: No, you know the story, but the guy who blows

694
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 4: himself up, you know.

695
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: Talk amongst yourself figure?

696
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 4: Is that?

697
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: I think you're remembering the movie Towering Inferno. Yeah, that

698
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 3: was a great Yeah.

699
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 4: By the way, all right, I've tried to make people

700
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 4: watch that all the time. It doesn't play as well.

701
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 2: Wait, hold on one second, you just want to find

702
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: this one second?

703
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's buy all means, stop the podcast so you

704
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 3: can look up your biblical history.

705
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 2: I'm going to ask I'm going to ask ai.

706
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 3: I think it's Ezekiel four sixteen.

707
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 4: What's I think you're looking up?

708
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: What?

709
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 4: I think that what you were looking?

710
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: By the way, Ezekiel, great biblical name. That's one of

711
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 3: my favorites. Yeah. So it's catchy, it's got the k

712
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 3: sound very catful. It.

713
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 4: I think, what's the way I think you're looking for?

714
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 4: What's the book? The Protocols of the Zion?

715
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're you're conflating popular It's not like people in

716
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 3: Tel Aviv who are like in their apartments and the

717
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 3: government comes through and goes, hold on, i gotta run

718
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 3: some explosives.

719
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: Through here, a little bit of cable. There you go,

720
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 4: all right there, you go, all right, please on the screen.

721
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 2: Okay, this is okay.

722
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 3: You can't read to yourself on a podcast.

723
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: Let me come back, let's start. Let's start this over. Okay,

724
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: should I start the whole thing over?

725
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 3: No, let's read the story.

726
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: So it's called the Samson option, and it is actually

727
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: not a biblical term. It is a modern geopolitical doctrine

728
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: that borrows from a biblical name. Okay, and Israel has

729
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: never admitted to it, but there are theories out there

730
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: that it is not a religious doctor in self destruction.

731
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 3: It is.

732
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: It is that if they are attacked and there is

733
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: going to be an end to Israel, they will take

734
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 1: the whole area out with them.

735
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: So you realize. I just want to I just want

736
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 3: to make sure you realize. Sampson wasn't a guy who

737
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,239
Speaker 3: had this big building. He blew it up, right.

738
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 2: No, I didn't say he blew it up. I said

739
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: he he was.

740
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: He pulled the I've seen the picture. He pulled the

741
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: he pulled the towers that held it up and.

742
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: The pillars, thank you, and the whole thing fell and

743
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: they killed.

744
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,919
Speaker 3: I think we should have Bible study with film.

745
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 4: It's kind of reduced to like high Tomorrow Deuteronomy turned

746
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 4: it too high concept film.

747
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: I think it's a perfect segue into our next.

748
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 4: I to believe things that aren't true are next?

749
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: Uh so you read a book called False.

750
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just so that was reading in this recently

751
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 4: and it's about how one of my favorite books and

752
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 4: all this stuff is this this book by Catherine Schultz,

753
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 4: New York writer from years ago. Yeah, yeah, yeah, which

754
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 4: is a book about why most things you think are true.

755
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 4: But the important thing in it from my standpoint, was

756
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 4: this idea that how does it feel to believe something

757
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 4: that's wrong? And the answer is, of course it believes exactly.

758
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 4: It feels exactly like how it feels to believe that

759
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 4: something's right until you find out you're wrong, right, right,

760
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 4: And so this is the thing why it's so comforting

761
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 4: to feel like you're always being reassured that what you

762
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 4: what you think about the world is actually true. And

763
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 4: it turns out the world right now is really good

764
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 4: at delivering you information that reinforces you and thinking, oh,

765
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 4: this is like the algorithms feeding me more of this,

766
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 4: this must be this must be a good sample of

767
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 4: what's going on in the world. And so This book

768
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 4: was about this idea of how these this whole process

769
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 4: feeds itself, and it feeds to this thing called motivated reasoning,

770
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 4: which is the idea that you look for information that

771
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 4: confirms what you already thought because it's it makes you

772
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 4: feel better about things, and disconfirming information is just like, yeah,

773
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 4: I don't want any of that. And it's and it's

774
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 4: it's a really it's a really interesting problem and it's

775
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 4: a huge trap and very easy to get stuck into

776
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 4: because it's easy to than ever to find information that

777
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 4: confirms anything you think about anything.

778
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 3: Now, of course, I mean look at the Q and

779
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 3: on stuff. Those people are like would go right down

780
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 3: the rabbit hole and didn't go. It's not like they

781
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,319
Speaker 3: were going. They were as themselves. Let me go find

782
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 3: some people that think this guy's crazy.

783
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I mean it was more than if you

784
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 4: thought they were crazy. They immediately rejected you, of course,

785
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 4: because they have huge confirmation from the community, and so

786
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 4: they wouldn't even begin to engage with you. But this idea,

787
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 4: and so the reason why I got into it was

788
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 4: I was talking I was giving a talk with some

789
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 4: Hedgemind guys the other day, and I was talking to

790
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 4: them this group about someone stood up and said to

791
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 4: me about this one topical They said, what would prove

792
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 4: you wrong? Right? What would falsify your view? And I thought,

793
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 4: you know, it's a great question because it's this idea

794
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 4: of are you open to being you know, disconfirmed, refuted,

795
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 4: whatever word you want. And then I got me thinking

796
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 4: that I think it's important across almost everything to have

797
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 4: some idea of what would what would constitute something that

798
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 4: would prove me wrong about something. I think it's true.

799
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 3: I totally agree with that. But you you also noticed

800
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 3: that these days on social media, it's most of the dialogue,

801
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 3: if you don't even want to use that word, most

802
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: of the dialogue is less about truth seeking and more

803
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: about membership, membership, membership and the team. And the name

804
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 3: calling is classic. I mean, the name calling is never

805
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 3: about truth seeking. It's about those people are libtards or whatever. Seriously,

806
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: I mean, let's I'm gonna, you know, declare my position

807
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 3: as part of this group in in in what is

808
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 3: ostensibly this person like claiming that you're wrong. They name

809
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 3: call this, you know, they retweet someone who agrees with them.

810
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 3: It's less, it's all. It just feels a lot lot

811
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 3: less about seeking the right answer now and more about like,

812
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 3: I'm declaring my affiliation with this group and membership and

813
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,399
Speaker 3: membership in the tribe is more important than the truth.

814
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you're on, aren't You had a bunch of

815
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 4: like political grips.

816
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 3: You said that in a way that made me feel

817
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: like you didn't agree with me, he said, Yeah.

818
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 4: I'm reminded me of Nick. Nick told me where we

819
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 4: go on a bunch of political chats in one of

820
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 4: the didn't you say like you were? It was mostly

821
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 4: just confirmation stuff like yeah, it's people being tribal. It's

822
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 4: all tribal. I mean, I I don't participate in them

823
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 4: because I just don't have the energy anymore.

824
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 3: But I do.

825
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: I do watch What How, and it's definitely they're all tribal.

826
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 3: They're all like signal.

827
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: Well, what's fascinating actually is that there are certain people

828
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: on There's one one like Hollywood group chat that I'm on,

829
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: and there's half of the people on it are clearly,

830
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: you know, full on Trumpers, and half of the people

831
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: on it are.

832
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 2: The opposite.

833
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 1: And and they always send screenshots from social media because

834
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: I guess that's where grown ups get their news. These days,

835
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: and they'll be like, can you believe this? Or they'll

836
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: say is this true? And it's like and you're like,

837
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: so they're they're being fed and all the if the

838
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: if I ever jump in, it's to literally copy and

839
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: paste a Google link and say like, no, it's not true.

840
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 2: All you have to do is look it up.

841
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 1: But they're all constant, constantly being fed these biases and

842
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 1: they and they are seeking them out and then trying

843
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: to use them as weapons against the people that they

844
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 1: But to show.

845
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 4: What Dick was saying, like to show member the member,

846
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 4: remember the tribe.

847
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 3: This is why, I mean, this is precisely why like

848
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 3: information campaigns are pointing people to links doesn't work. We

849
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 3: assume the problem is ignorance. But it's not hignorance. It's

850
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 3: I'm see, I'm on blue team.

851
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 2: Already, does is it? Red?

852
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 3: People are losers?

853
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: And then and then the people that are on the

854
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: blue team when they see it, it just gives them

855
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: one other thing to argue against.

856
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 2: And then it just becomes you know, it just it's

857
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 2: becomes sick.

858
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 4: I was thinking about it earlier. I was I told

859
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 4: you earlier you should listen to this. Jesse Armstrong the

860
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 4: succession showrunner. He was on BBC show Desert Island Discs,

861
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 4: where you talk a little bit about your your you know,

862
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 4: your life and so on, but in between each you

863
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 4: picked songs, and so he was talking about, what this

864
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 4: is a TV show, No, it's a radio show.

865
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 3: On radios on BBC are the best, it's the best?

866
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 2: What kind of what kind of music did people like?

867
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 2: Did he pick? Did he anything?

868
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 3: It was like that they called that because it's like,

869
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: what if you were on a desert island would take right?

870
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 4: The idea is all the way through you say you

871
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 4: pick four songs that you would listen to on the

872
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 4: desert island. At the end of it all, you said, oh,

873
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 4: you can take three items with you to the desert island.

874
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 4: And it has to be a book something and no luxuries,

875
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 4: a book of something else, something else.

876
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 2: We should we should play that game.

877
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 4: It's really actually a tremendous show. A book, a book,

878
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,439
Speaker 4: a luxury and no, not a luxury. It's a book

879
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 4: and is something else. I forget what it was, but

880
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 4: there's someone like one other thing you can bring and

881
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 4: so you know, how can you not remember what the

882
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 4: thing is?

883
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 3: Only three things I listen to this. This is him.

884
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 2: He's like the median age for people in nineteen twelve

885
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 2: living between the Mississippi border. And that was twelve point two.

886
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 3: I remember the three like did you see the movie

887
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 3: with the sting, Yeah, it's Rebber.

888
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 4: Reward and that other guy like one guy whoever that

889
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 4: is so Armstar talks about. I didn't realize that pre

890
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 4: screenwriter stuff, that he was an English major and he

891
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 4: we worked as an assistant to a UK politician and

892
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 4: he was talking about like he initially thought he would

893
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 4: really love to work somehow in a speech writer role

894
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 4: or something inside of political office. And what put him

895
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 4: off was he went to some meeting, some political convention,

896
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,919
Speaker 4: and he showed up been a yellow tie. He said,

897
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 4: I went in a yellow tie and immediately got shouted

898
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 4: at by people who said, don't you realize that's a

899
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,399
Speaker 4: I don't even know by UK but Libdem something something,

900
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 4: it was some whatever party he wasn't part of. They

901
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 4: were shouting at him because he was wearing a color

902
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 4: associated with them. And he's like, I still strongly believe it.

903
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 4: Our doesn't matter. You're wearing the wrong color, and he's like,

904
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 4: f this, I'm out. I'm out, this is ridiculous. I

905
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 4: feel like this is all just it was for him,

906
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 4: as he said, it was just a reminder of how

907
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 4: unthoughtful and tribal it was. And I just thought it

908
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 4: was really striking because him coming to that realization that

909
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 4: and this was decades ago, twenty plus years ago. Politics

910
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 4: has been like this forever, right, I mean, what is it?

911
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 4: So my question is what is it about politics that

912
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:58,720
Speaker 4: drives so much motivated reasoning?

913
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 3: I mean, the funny thing about all this is, and

914
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 3: this is not an answer to your question, it's just

915
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 3: a new topic I wanted to explore.

916
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, sure.

917
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 3: About all this is motivated reasoning. I don't know what

918
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 3: the right analogy is. But when you're doing it, it's

919
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 3: just when you're doing it, it's reasoning. When when I'm

920
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 3: doing it, it's reasoning. When you're doing it, it's motivated reasoning.

921
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 3: I mean, it's like, it's not dissimilar to the it's.

922
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 4: The Catherine Schultz line.

923
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 3: It feels, it feels fine, it feels fine when when

924
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 3: I'm doing I'm doing it, but you are obviously stupid

925
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 3: and crazy. Well, it's also it's it's not it's not

926
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 3: dissimilar to the old we judge other people by their behaviors,

927
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 3: but we judge ourselves by our intentions. It's like, no,

928
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 3: I'm I'm really you're a part. You're a part. I'm

929
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 3: actually thinking through this and quote doing my own research.

930
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 2: You're an idiot.

931
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 4: What is it about politics?

932
00:42:59,239 --> 00:42:59,399
Speaker 3: Though?

933
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 2: I think it's that we.

934
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: Well, I think that we live in a time now

935
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 1: where we have where politics has become what we associate

936
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 1: ourselves with every every aspect.

937
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 4: But it's been true forever though, No, but people used.

938
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: To you know, you look back at like in the

939
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: fifties and sixties and seventies and neighbors didn't hate each

940
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 1: other because someone voted for Nixon or what.

941
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 3: You know.

942
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: It's it's just it's become even more tribal. It's just

943
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: become so tribal.

944
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: And it's social media.

945
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: Like at the end of the day, I really truly

946
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: believe that's what has broken this. But it's also I mean,

947
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 1: what's fascinating is when you look at you know, is

948
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 1: reading someone.

949
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:37,240
Speaker 3: By the way, this is precisely why bitcoin works because

950
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 3: there's nothing underneath it. It's just a price. So when

951
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 3: it falls, if you're a hoteler atalig bitcoin Maxie you're like, yeah,

952
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:55,919
Speaker 3: this is fine, great buying opportunity. You know, this doesn't

953
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 3: refute anything. This doesn't refute anything I thought, And these

954
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 3: people don't get it. And the weekends are selling right now. Yeah,

955
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 3: because there's no there's nothing under it to go. And

956
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 3: politics is a little like yeah, politics is like that, but.

957
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:12,760
Speaker 1: We're also we are also come into things with this predisposition.

958
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 1: If you look at the Innocence Project, there most of

959
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 1: the cases where they have overturned the cases where people

960
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,959
Speaker 1: who came in with the predisposition and they it didn't

961
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: matter what the evidence showed, they were going to vote

962
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: in a specific way.

963
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 3: And so sure, there's also the sunk the DA's sunk cost. Right,

964
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: I didn't spend twenty years prosecuting that case. See some

965
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,839
Speaker 3: twenty year old jerk come in and show me new evidence. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

966
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 3: But it used to be that.

967
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 4: A friend of mine used to argue that politics was

968
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 4: like that, but other spaces were. And his example always was,

969
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 4: you don't see motivated reasoning and finance because there's a

970
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 4: real there's real truth. And I used to buy that,

971
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 4: and I don't think it's just true anymore. Like bitcoin

972
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 4: is an example.

973
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 3: Bitcoin's an example.

974
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 4: Right, it's starting to motivated reasoning starting to penetrate other

975
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 4: areas Where it used to be it was clear what

976
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 4: was true and what was false. Like, what's the point

977
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 4: of pretending a company is successful but it's not successful?

978
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 3: I mean, look at well you look ascribed.

979
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 2: I know every tech company on the planet.

980
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 3: That's the thing I know about that. But you could

981
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 3: certainly use it to yeah, look at Tesla.

982
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 4: Stuff Tesla or something else, because it's what would prove

983
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 4: you wrong about thinking that Tesla is the future despite

984
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 4: them having abandoned cars, focused on a robots launching data centers.

985
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 1: What's fascinating is one of those in space space check

986
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: out our earlier podcast on space data centers. What's fascinating

987
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: is on on one of those text threads that I

988
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 1: just watch on is there is someone who is a

989
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 1: staunch Tesla supporter, like you know, owns a lot of stock.

990
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: And when the news came out, funny thing you.

991
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 3: Just think, we listen what you just said. There's a

992
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 3: staunch I know it's crazy political part.

993
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: But it is a political party to him.

994
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 1: And and so when the earnings calls recent earned cold

995
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: and they weren't selling any cyber trucks and the sales

996
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: were down in Europe and China and blah blah blah

997
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: blah blah.

998
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 2: He he was, He's like, I'm buying more because it's.

999
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: Gonna They're gonna it's gonna be a robots company and

1000
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 1: then we're gonna every robot in the in the world.

1001
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 3: They don't have those nuisance cars around now, it's a

1002
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 3: data Actually I've said this before. They should stop making

1003
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 3: cars completely and then the stock could go way up, right,

1004
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 3: because it's just a hindred it's holding him back.

1005
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 4: Right, it's having to focus on cars is distracting him

1006
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 4: from the more important things like humanoid robots.

1007
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 2: What is your theory?

1008
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 3: I'm not kidding, No, No, I.

1009
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 4: Actually think you're right. I hadn't thought that.

1010
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 3: I wonder what if bitcoin were actually used regularly for

1011
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 3: some purpose, and you could track how widely it was

1012
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 3: used or not the price, would you know? These would

1013
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 3: be core nothing but a price or a promise or whatever.

1014
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 3: A promise go up forever.

1015
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a really good point.

1016
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 1: The other thing, the other thing with politics, thinking about

1017
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 1: it is that the everything has become political like you

1018
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 1: used to be that we.

1019
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 2: Just said no no, no, but I know that. But

1020
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 2: what I'm saying is like, no, like I feel like

1021
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 2: you don't listen to me.

1022
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 3: I want to have a therapy section. I want to

1023
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 3: go to a couples therapy with you. Here's what I

1024
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 3: want to do. I want to go to a couple

1025
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 3: Just give me one second, please please. I want to

1026
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 3: go to couples therapy with you and tell the therapist

1027
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 3: I don't feel heard. Nick, he comes home, I tell

1028
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 3: him you don't feel heard. You're in a podcast. China

1029
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 3: has five hundred million people over the age of sixty.

1030
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 3: And then six minutes later, Nicholas, I'll tell you. I'll

1031
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 3: tell you one interesting thing. China is about to have

1032
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 3: a billion people over the age of sixty. Like, I

1033
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 3: haven't made me feel he makes me feel small.

1034
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 4: It hurts my feelings.

1035
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: No, My point is I was just I was processing

1036
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 1: and thinking about the question that Poul answered earlier.

1037
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 2: And yes, it's a social media blah blah blah.

1038
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: But also I don't like it when you drink.

1039
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 4: Today a therapy, you're a different person.

1040
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 2: I don't drink that much. Well, it's only a bottle

1041
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 2: of wine. And I dear everything is politics. It's politics.

1042
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,800
Speaker 1: The jacket you wear has endorsed one candidate over another,

1043
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 1: the TV show you watch feels a certain way about something.

1044
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 1: It's like every single solitary thing, whereas before it was

1045
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 1: just it's not like that the implications of politics are

1046
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: bigger or smaller than they ever were since we've had

1047
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 1: a democracy. It's that politics have become a part of

1048
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 1: every single solitary thing you do, Like drink of plastic

1049
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 1: water bottle, you have, you're you're leaning a certain way,

1050
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,359
Speaker 1: support tesla, you're leaning a certain way, like and it's

1051
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: just it's become everything. Why Because I mean, do you

1052
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 1: really want to say why?

1053
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 3: Yeah? No, why I would because.

1054
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 4: This is a global phenomenon. That's why I think the

1055
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 4: white question is interesting.

1056
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: I think the question. I think the reason is is because.

1057
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 1: There are certain put people in power who the only

1058
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 1: way they know how to be empower is to have

1059
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 1: an enemy, and that they have made enemies out of everything,

1060
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: and so uh and then and that's where the divide comes,

1061
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: and so everything has to pick aside or it's irrelevant.

1062
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 4: So like this, I think that's true. I think the

1063
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 4: sociology argument is that we lack enemies external enemies because

1064
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 4: the Cold War, so you turn on yourself. Yes, that's it.

1065
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:40,800
Speaker 3: The tribes.

1066
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 4: The tribes are a natural because I can't I don't

1067
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 4: have someone else outside the country to hate, So I

1068
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:46,919
Speaker 4: turn around and you become much more tribal.

1069
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 3: And then immigration is a great vehicle for feeding them

1070
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 3: because those people don't look like me.

1071
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 2: Yea one thousand percent. So I've been thinking about this.

1072
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,879
Speaker 2: China is going to have five all right?

1073
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 3: Do I get to do the outro this time?

1074
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 2: Do the outro?

1075
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 3: Thanks? Once again, this was the Dick and Paul Show.

1076
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,359
Speaker 3: We can't see wait to see you again next time.