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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: So, as we were just discussing how young people may

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Speaker 2: be forced into this cause, whether they want it to

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Speaker 2: or not, through a potential draft that this administrations never

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Speaker 2: rolled out, let's take a listen to Caroline Lovett talk

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Speaker 2: about why exactly Trump decided to launch this war.

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Speaker 3: In our reporting speak a lot to young voters, many

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Speaker 3: of whom voted for President Trump for the first time.

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Speaker 4: In twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: You're hoping to have no more wars than to have

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Speaker 3: lower prices. Now with the war taking place and with

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Speaker 3: gas prices going up. Here's what President Trump's message would

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Speaker 3: be to those voters who kind of swung into his

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Speaker 3: coalition in twenty twenty four that maybe don't field the

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Speaker 3: Admistraians goingness they had extended.

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Speaker 5: President Trump is doing this for you. He's doing this

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Speaker 5: for young people, so that we are no longer threatened

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Speaker 5: by our rogue terrorist regime in the Middle East that

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Speaker 5: seeks to kill the brave men and women who serve

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Speaker 5: in our country in.

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Speaker 6: The Middle East, many of them young people themselves.

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Speaker 5: Young men and women who serve this country honorably in

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Speaker 5: uniform and have been threatened, killed, and maimed by the

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Speaker 5: rogue Iranian terrorist regime for forty seven years. President Trump

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Speaker 5: finally had the courage to step up and do what's

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Speaker 5: right by our.

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Speaker 6: National security, our homeland security.

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Speaker 5: As for the temporary short term fluctuation and gas prices,

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Speaker 5: the President has said, once these combat operations are over,

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Speaker 5: this administration is going to continue to unleash American energy dominance.

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Speaker 6: We're continuing to do that every day, and.

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Speaker 5: We're going to see pipe prices that the pump go

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Speaker 5: back down, just as we have over the past year.

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Speaker 6: Because of this President.

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Speaker 7: Young people. He's doing this for you.

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Speaker 2: Have you told him thank you? Aren't you so delighted?

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Speaker 2: This is what the president and has decided to do

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Speaker 2: for you at a time. And let's put the next

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Speaker 2: piece up on the screen. The job market for young

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Speaker 2: great graduates is the grimmest in years. Young people, most

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Speaker 2: of them cannot hope to afford a house. This war

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Speaker 2: is making that worse because mortgage rates are going up again.

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Speaker 7: She reference there gas prices.

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Speaker 2: I'd say that's a pretty significant, important part of the

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Speaker 2: budget for most young Americans who are trying to get

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Speaker 2: their you know, get their get their bearings in the

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Speaker 2: job market and get themselves on their feet and up

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Speaker 2: and going pretty devastating for them on that front. And

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Speaker 2: the polling reflects the fact that not just young people,

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Speaker 2: but the population in general, but especially young people, are

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Speaker 2: not in support of this war.

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Speaker 7: Let's put C three up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: Nate Silver has started doing a tracker of support or

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Speaker 2: opposition for this war, and every day that goes by,

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Speaker 2: that opposition number ticks up bit by bit. So right

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Speaker 2: now currently again this is an average of all polling.

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Speaker 2: Fifty two point one percent of pose and forty percent

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Speaker 2: roughly support. Okay, Historically Americans are very pro war, especially

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Speaker 2: at the beginning of war.

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Speaker 7: They're very pro war.

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Speaker 2: They rally around the flag, they drink the kool aid,

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Speaker 2: they listen to the mainstream press. They see, you know,

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Speaker 2: the American military doing a thing, looking badass, dropping bombs,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. Usually, the population is overwhelmingly in support of

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Speaker 2: these wars.

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Speaker 7: At the beginning.

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Speaker 2: They were for Iraq, they certainly were for Afghanistan. Yes,

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Speaker 2: there was a vocal opposition in the Rock War, but

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Speaker 2: it was, you know, nowhere near a majority of the population.

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Speaker 2: It was a fairly small minority of the population that

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Speaker 2: opposed the Iraq War from the jump. And we are

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Speaker 2: just weeks into this thing and already you have quite

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Speaker 2: significant and clear opposition to this war. It was a

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Speaker 2: really extraordinary thing. And there was no real attempt even

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Speaker 2: to build support for the war because they don't think

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Speaker 2: that what you think about it really matters. They don't

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Speaker 2: care what you think, and they don't belie believe that

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Speaker 2: there's going to be any sort of real democratic check

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Speaker 2: on what they're up to here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I just think that if you look

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Speaker 1: at I mean that I think about that new job

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Speaker 1: number for young graduates in comparison to the Iran war

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Speaker 1: and what the administration said. I've even seen Mark Levin

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Speaker 1: Mark Levin going around being like, wouldn't you all pay

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Speaker 1: an extra fifty cents to Gallen just to make sure

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Speaker 1: that the Ayatola could never have a nuclear weapon. I'm like, no,

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Speaker 1: actually I wouldn't, and neither should anybody else.

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Speaker 2: Well, not to mention, you have made it more likely

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Speaker 2: that they're going to have a nuclear weapon. You've made

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Speaker 2: it more so we're paying more and they're more likely

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Speaker 2: to have a nuclear weapons. So congratulations, way to go.

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Speaker 2: You killed the guy who had issued the fatwah against

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Speaker 2: the nuclear.

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Speaker 1: Well, so you killed the job man who actually was

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Speaker 1: keeping Iran away from a nuclear weapon. Congratulations. And now

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Speaker 1: his son, who you've murdered, basically his entire extended family.

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Speaker 1: That guy definitely is going to keep to the traditions

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Speaker 1: of his song. What would you if you took that

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Speaker 1: lesson away? If your father spent his entire life at

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Speaker 1: this leader of a country, it seemed indecisive, and all

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Speaker 1: the people around you are telling you that's what happened,

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Speaker 1: and then he died after an Israeli bomb exploded him.

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Speaker 1: While your what is it his wife, his daughter, and

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Speaker 1: all of these other extended family members all got killed.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, you also probably got your face

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Speaker 1: like scarred as a result of the explosion. What would

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Speaker 1: your mindset be, just from a normal human perspective on

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Speaker 1: the young.

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Speaker 7: Villain origin story.

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Speaker 1: Literally, yeah, it's like, what's the guy Batman two face?

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Speaker 1: You know, it's like, that's how you become a villain

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Speaker 1: And it doesn't it's not an endorsement to say that

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Speaker 1: would be a very normal human reaction and then to

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Speaker 1: understand that we have to deal with the consequences of that.

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Speaker 1: But coming back to the young person front and generally

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Speaker 1: they're the reason why this war is so extraordinary. It

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Speaker 1: actually warms my heart to see them so many people

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Speaker 1: up in arms and people really against it is because

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Speaker 1: for the first time we see and have we have

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Speaker 1: alternative views. Our show is exploding. It's not just about us, obviously,

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Speaker 1: there's an entire ecosystem of people who are out there

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Speaker 1: are trying to actually bring this thing to a close.

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Speaker 1: The second thing is that the government at this time

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Speaker 1: really showed its hand. They felt so arrogant Trump and

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Speaker 1: others that America would follow them into this war that

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Speaker 1: they didn't even bother trying to sell us. It also

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Speaker 1: has exposed how much how little faith we should have

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Speaker 1: in our members of Congress who are fundamentally cowards. It

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Speaker 1: has reset a lot of people's understandings of the political system.

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Speaker 1: You and I know this. A huge part of Trump's

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Speaker 1: appeal was being anti war and appearing to be anti war.

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Speaker 1: We say that, yeah, a massive, a massive part of it.

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Speaker 1: You can't deny it from the podcast to I mean,

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Speaker 1: so many people who I spoke to, and it was

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Speaker 1: a huge part of it for me as well. I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying I expected, you know, Pollyanna Peace, I did

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Speaker 1: think that the Ukraine War and that this Urn war

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Speaker 1: would never happen. I can tell you that. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people thought that, and so for them

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Speaker 1: it is a visceral, scarring experience. It was something directly

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Speaker 1: violative of what they actually said they were we're going

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Speaker 1: to do, and a lot of the advisors of the

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Speaker 1: people who are around them, and so if we watch them,

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Speaker 1: that will breed genuine rage inside of you. I can

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Speaker 1: say that on my part, and I do definitely think

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Speaker 1: that's the case for a lot of other people who

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Speaker 1: voted in the election, and so to have it so

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Speaker 1: that they have such contempt for all of us, to

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Speaker 1: put us into this war and at the very same

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Speaker 1: time tell us that they're doing it for us. For

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Speaker 1: that is a breaking point, like for real, for so

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Speaker 1: many young voters that I actually think this will fundamentally

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Speaker 1: change a lot of ways that people vote in the future,

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Speaker 1: not for the extended future, but in the next election.

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Speaker 1: This will dramatically change the way that we evaluate our

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Speaker 1: candidates because clearly, for a lot of people myself included,

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Speaker 1: our framework for evaluation was wrong. So how does that

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Speaker 1: have You have to re engineer the way in the

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Speaker 1: standards of which you hold people and promises and you

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Speaker 1: know the old sayings of like politicians always break their promises,

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Speaker 1: like in some ways always going to be true, but

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Speaker 1: they're there's degrees of where we go.

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Speaker 7: Yes, very true, Yeah, there are degrees.

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Speaker 2: Let's put the next piece up on the screen because

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Speaker 2: it speaks to your political point. Here Trump's approval rating

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Speaker 2: is in the toilet. I mean, you can see this

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Speaker 2: trend line. So this is the Reuter's pole and you

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Speaker 2: can see at the beginning, you know, Trump, for one

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Speaker 2: of the first times in his political career actually had

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Speaker 2: a net positive approval rating, and that has just been

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Speaker 2: squandered over and over again, and now it's all the

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Speaker 2: way down. This is a new low thirty six percent approve.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is near the basement of as long

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Speaker 2: as his base like hangs in there with him, which

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Speaker 2: they largely continue to do. You know, there are all

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Speaker 2: these silly poles, are like one hundred percent of mega

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Speaker 2: approoves of mega.

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Speaker 7: You know. Anyway, I actually believe that, by the way, Yeah,

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Speaker 7: I believe that.

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Speaker 2: Sure, because maga has been defined as Trump.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, like whatever Trump wants.

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Speaker 2: So if you're still defining yourself as I'm maga, you

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Speaker 2: are the definition of being maga is.

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Speaker 7: Whatever Trump says. I trust him. I trust Trump.

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Speaker 2: So Trump wants to go to war and iron him

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Speaker 2: though we said he wouldn't do that. Sure, let's go

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Speaker 2: along for the ride. You saw the way that the

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Speaker 2: partisan sentiment on like whether or not you support Iran

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Speaker 2: war completely flipped once Trump decided to do it. But

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Speaker 2: in any case, the rest of the public, anyone who's

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Speaker 2: not maga, I mean, this is really unpopular.

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Speaker 7: So Trump's approval rating is clearly taking a hit.

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Speaker 2: And it's not just this poll by the way, there

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Speaker 2: have been a bunch of poles that have come out

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Speaker 2: in the past week that have him in the thirties,

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Speaker 2: from you know, thirty six up to you know, up

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Speaker 2: to thirty nine, and some in the low forties. I

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Speaker 2: think there's a Fox News poll that just came out

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Speaker 2: that I believe had him at forty percent, which again

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Speaker 2: very low for any president, and even low for this

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Speaker 2: president who has been very unpopular, And if you dig

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Speaker 2: into some of these numbers, I mean, it's really quite extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: So forty six percent of respondents say the war in

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Speaker 2: Iran will make the US less safe in.

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Speaker 7: The long run.

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Speaker 2: Only twenty six percent believe the rhetoric from the administration

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Speaker 2: and from the war defenders that it's going to make

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Speaker 2: the country safer. So you have a near majority that

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Speaker 2: are like, this whole war and death and destruction and

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Speaker 2: money that's being spent, all this stuff, this is making

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Speaker 2: us less safe. So that makes sense of why you

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Speaker 2: see his approval rating so low and approval of the

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Speaker 2: war so low. Also, you know, the numbers for his

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Speaker 2: economic handling continue to be extremely dire. Only twenty nine

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Speaker 2: percent of the country approves of Trump's economic stewardship. That

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Speaker 2: is the lowest rating in either Trump administrations, and lower

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Speaker 2: than any time in the Biden administration. So Trump has

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Speaker 2: now plunged way below wherein Joe Biden was at the

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Speaker 2: worst parts of his administration.

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Speaker 7: And all of.

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Speaker 2: It is based on like, not any you know, there

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Speaker 2: was no there was no COVID, there's no major emergency,

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Speaker 2: no terrorist attag like, no. It is all based on

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Speaker 2: his own horrific decision making that he has plunged us

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Speaker 2: into an economic crisis, obviously a global security crisis. And

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Speaker 2: you know, the American people saying we are not down

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Speaker 2: with this, even a significant number of Republicans like you're

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Speaker 2: not doing a good job on this front, which was

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Speaker 2: previously his unique strength.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Actually, can we flip ahead to CE seven please? This

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Speaker 1: was sorry, no C six. I'm in the mar A

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Speaker 1: Lago flip how the Democrats were able to win Trump's

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Speaker 1: hometown Florida House district. So I was looking at a

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Speaker 1: political analyst and what they said, which is the most remarkable,

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Speaker 1: is that what they were able to do in this

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Speaker 1: election not only is flip a what was it Trump

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Speaker 1: plus fourteen district? Here, This was a very significant Trump

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Speaker 1: victory district back in twenty twenty four, the GOPN comment.

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Speaker 2: I think it was plus twelve and they won it

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Speaker 2: by two, so it was a fourteen point start.

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Speaker 1: So he won it by nineteen points the GOPN comment

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, and obviously a Democrat just won.

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Speaker 1: So how did that happen? Well, it's not just over

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Speaker 1: performance of Democratic turnout. Almost the same number of Republicans

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Speaker 1: who are normally identified of Republicans came out to vote.

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Speaker 1: What does that tell you? They switched their vote. They

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Speaker 1: actually switched from Republican to Democrat whenever they decided to vote,

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Speaker 1: explicitly as an act of protests. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: what's not being captured in all of these MAGA Republican

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Speaker 1: polls is that there are acts, actually genuine swing voters,

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Speaker 1: people who voted Republican not only what less than a

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Speaker 1: europe or more than a year ago, ruugh, fifteen months

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Speaker 1: something like that, and are now actually willing to straight

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Speaker 1: up just vote for a Democrat. What an act of protest?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what I saw is that it was less that

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Speaker 2: the Republicans flipped and more that the Independents are so

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Speaker 2: overwhelmingly opposed at this point that you know, if you

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Speaker 2: have obviously the Democrats are very energized, and then you

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Speaker 2: have independence flooding the zone basically acting like partisan Democrats.

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Speaker 2: At this point, how are all your little jerrymanders going

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Speaker 2: to work out? I actually saw a report this morning

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Speaker 2: that I guess Florida did one of these new maps.

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Speaker 7: I'd kind of forgotten about that.

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Speaker 2: But in any case, we've talked a lot about the

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Speaker 2: Texas jerrymander, and there are some new numbers out about

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Speaker 2: the way Latinos have fled Trump in terms of approving

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Speaker 2: of his presidency after you know, voting for him, like

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Speaker 2: in for republic in very strong numbers. So that Texas

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Speaker 2: jerrymtter we've talked about, but the Florid jerrymater we haven't

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Speaker 2: talked about as much. And there's reporting this morning came

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Speaker 2: Jeffrey's announcing they're targeting I think six new seats in

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Speaker 2: Florida because of the strength of these results that they

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Speaker 2: just had, and that a bunch of Republican members are

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Speaker 2: getting a little nervous about how these midterms are going

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Speaker 2: to go for them. So you can put C seven

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Speaker 2: up on the screen. You know, this isn't a one off, right,

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Speaker 2: It's obviously very symbolically important that the district that literally

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Speaker 2: contains mar A Lago just went blue is very symbolically important.

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Speaker 2: Democrats have now flipped thirty seats in special elections since

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Speaker 2: Trump won. Republicans have flipped zero. So the scorecard is

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Speaker 2: Democrats thirty, Republicans zero in these special elections. And I

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Speaker 2: know they'll be all kinds of cope about, well, special

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Speaker 2: elections are different than midterm elections, blah blah blah. Many

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Speaker 2: of these elections have had very high turnout, very high turnout,

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Speaker 2: and you know, I just I think that the trend

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Speaker 2: is very clear. Will the midterms be you know, on average,

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Speaker 2: the shift has been like a fourteen point swing towards Democrats.

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Speaker 2: If it's anything approaching that, it's going to be just

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Speaker 2: like a historic even beyond some of the recent title

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Speaker 2: wave elections that we've had. And if we can go

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Speaker 2: back to C five, this generic ballot test just came

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Speaker 2: out from Quinnipiac and so this is where they just say,

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Speaker 2: in general, would you prefer Democrat or Republican? Democrats are

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Speaker 2: Republicans control Congress? And in this particular poll, you have

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Speaker 2: Democrats by an eleven point lead. The last poll that

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Speaker 2: this same polster did back in December had Democrats only

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Speaker 2: plus four. Plus four is, by the way, it still

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Speaker 2: very significant number. If you're looking at the entire country

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Speaker 2: D plus eleven again, that is, that's some wild stuff.

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Speaker 2: So that's why, you know, Republicans are increasingly getting very

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Speaker 2: nervous about this, and especially as the economy worsens and

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Speaker 2: Trump's approval rating only goes down and He's launched this

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Speaker 2: unpopular war, which not only is a problem because the

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Speaker 2: war itself is unpopular, but it also broadcasts to everyone like, oh,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't give a shit about your cost of living.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't give a shit about like the things that

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Speaker 2: are making your life miserable and difficult. In fact, his

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Speaker 2: choices are making things worse because I see it every

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Speaker 2: single time I go to the gas pump.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And what I've been looking at, you know,

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Speaker 1: with what I've been looking at for the war is

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Speaker 1: that people will look at it and connect it rightly

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Speaker 1: to gas And also fundamentally, what have we been talking

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Speaker 1: about here for an entire month, We've been talking about

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Speaker 1: the war. This is why you never want to get

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Speaker 1: into a war, because the war is always going to

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Speaker 1: be the most important story. It should be life and death.

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Speaker 1: Literally this, you know, the entire ability of our country

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Speaker 1: to project power, this is like essential, it is literally existential.

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Speaker 1: That's why we want to avoid them at all costs.

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Speaker 1: And in the absence of that, we're not talking about

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Speaker 1: TSA lines which are falling apart. I mean, your country

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Speaker 1: is at war and you got to stay in line

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Speaker 1: for four hours, nuts, right, I mean you're going to

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Speaker 1: be mad, and then your ticket's going to go up.

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Speaker 1: I did a little testing but thinking about taking a

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Speaker 1: trip to India to go see my grandparents, to take

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Speaker 1: my daughter over there and to meet them, and I

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Speaker 1: was just looking at the price. I mean it was

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Speaker 1: literally like a direct flight from JFK to New Delhi

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Speaker 1: is going for twenty five hundred dollars in economy, like

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Speaker 1: in the back, twenty five hundred each. You're like, oh, okay,

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Speaker 1: got it. I remember when those costs like twelve hundred, right,

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Speaker 1: and so sure, no one's gonna weep for me. But

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Speaker 1: I'm just giving an example of how exorbitantly expensive air

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Speaker 1: travel is about to become with two hundred dollars jet

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Speaker 1: fuel because that's almost certainly why the ticket price was

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Speaker 1: where it is. If you want to go visit your

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Speaker 1: sister or something like that. This normal in a country

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Speaker 1: which is literally the size of a continent. It's falling

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Speaker 1: apart when you get there. You're going to have high

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Speaker 1: inflation with rental cars, and then when you have to

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Speaker 1: fill up the gas tank or they'll charge you ten

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Speaker 1: dollars a gallon and you happen to roll up and

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Speaker 1: you just see the four fifty. Somebody in California sent

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Speaker 1: me an image yesterday of seven point thirty a gallon

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Speaker 1: that they were filling up. I'm sure that's one of

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Speaker 1: those outlier stations. But still that shouldn't even exist period.

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Speaker 1: Like wherever we are as a country, you have all

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Speaker 1: of that happening as a result of the war and

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Speaker 1: drawing attention or even political pressure of political capital from

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Speaker 1: any of the more basic stuff. Not to mention even

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Speaker 1: the interest rates. You talked about bonds and the bond market.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at seven percent interest rate right now. I

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Speaker 1: mean that is a nightmare. And then the inability for

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Speaker 1: new graduate center into the economy. So parents even who

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Speaker 1: they may have some money, but I mean ultimately, like

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Speaker 1: what are we all doing here. We're trying to make

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Speaker 1: a better life, you know, for the next generation, and

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Speaker 1: then you don't feel that so like it just feels

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Speaker 1: like everything societally is slipping away and that's in you

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Speaker 1: as a result explicitly of this war, and that usually

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Speaker 1: leads to major political outcome. So it's all in the

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Speaker 1: White House. It's all on Trump. They decided it. And

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Speaker 1: what's the craziest part is that so many of them

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Speaker 1: were like, we're not going to do this. This is

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Speaker 1: the one thing that we're not going to do, and

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Speaker 1: then they did it, which really makes you question, like

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Speaker 1: how that even happened in the first place. Sure, let's

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Speaker 1: move on, turning now to oil, so Chris still said earlier.

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Speaker 1: Trump said at one point that Iron had given us

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Speaker 1: some big present, but he couldn't tell us what it is.

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Speaker 1: Just to remind you all, here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 8: Because they're going to make a deal.

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Speaker 4: They're going to make a deal.

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Speaker 8: They did something yesterday that was amazing. Actually, they gave

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Speaker 8: us a present and the president arrived today and it

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Speaker 8: was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money.

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Speaker 8: And I'm not going to tell you what that present is.

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Speaker 8: But it was a very significant prize and they gave

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Speaker 8: it to us, and they said they were going to

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Speaker 8: give it, so that meant one thing to me, would

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Speaker 8: deal with the right people. No, it wasn't nuclear. It

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Speaker 8: was oil and gas related and it was a very

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Speaker 8: nice thing they did.

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Speaker 1: It was oil and gas. So everyone's like, what's the present,

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Speaker 1: So let's put this up here on the screen. The

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Speaker 1: Times of Israel has learned. The present was safe passage

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Speaker 1: for several fuel tankers through the streets of Horn Moves.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing, though, that was not as a result

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Speaker 1: whatsoever of US diplomacy. Those tankers which were able to

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Speaker 1: gain passage are largely countries and or companies which have

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Speaker 1: been making deals with the Iranians directly had nothing to

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Speaker 1: do with America. I read a very interesting interview with

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Speaker 1: India today yesterday with a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry,

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Speaker 1: and he was like, yeah, we're good with India. All

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Speaker 1: your Indian tankers they can go through, but that's because

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Speaker 1: India's dealing with them. And they explicitly said, and we're

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Speaker 1: doing this because you have nothing to do with the

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Speaker 1: war that's being waged against us. This had nothing whatsoever

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Speaker 1: to do with Donald Trump's administration or negotiations period.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wonder if does he believe this is

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Speaker 2: someone selling him this?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's see that that's nonsense. Likely is that somebody.

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Speaker 1: Look and if this is true, let's give him credit.

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Speaker 1: Foreign leaders are probably like, oh, sir, they did it

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Speaker 1: because of you, because of your negotiations, even though it's

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Speaker 1: because of them to make them think he's closer to

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Speaker 1: a deal.

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Speaker 2: So I could see that it's because obviously, I mean,

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Speaker 2: we've been following this as close as we can, but

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Speaker 2: we've known and it's been public knowledge that and Iran

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Speaker 2: announces this routinely. They're like, the straight up removes is

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Speaker 2: not closed. If you want to pay US two million

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Speaker 2: dollars and you're not involved in the war and you

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Speaker 2: want to denominate and Chinese, you on, come on down.

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Speaker 2: We And they've been exporting their oil, you know, at

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Speaker 2: even higher rates than they were previously.

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Speaker 7: With and making more money.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they've had effective sanctions relief, so they're actually

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Speaker 2: making bank in this war, which is just you know

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Speaker 2: wild also, and that's with the you know, incent of

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Speaker 2: our leadership, because they want to keep the oil markets calm,

438
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 2: by the way, oils back up. Now this morning brunch

439
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 2: is over, you know, one hundred dollars, and the stock

440
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 2: market is down, et cetera. But in any case, it

441
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,360
Speaker 2: has always been the case that they've said, hey, we'll

442
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 2: let tankers through. The street is not closed, it's just

443
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: close for you. So if you want to deal with

444
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 2: us directly, no problem. And so what looks like it

445
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 2: happens is someone came in and convinced Trump of this idea,

446
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 2: that this was like a gift to him, that they

447
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 2: were letting these tankers through, when this has always been

448
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,479
Speaker 2: the policy that they have announced from the onset.

449
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 1: Maybe we should just let it stand. Then, let's let

450
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 1: him believe it if he needs to.

451
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 2: I don't think he's watching the show anyway, apparently, because

452
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 2: I'm not sure we'd be getting this decision making.

453
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 7: Okay, I don't think he wants to hear what we

454
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 7: have to say.

455
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: Let's get to D three, then let's put this up

456
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 1: here on the screen. At the same time, there has

457
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: been major movement in the energy markets. At least forty

458
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: percent of Russia's current oil export capacity has now been

459
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: halted as a result of Ukrainian attacks so we actually,

460
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: this is so ironic. The United States is now literally selling, arming,

461
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: or enabling the closure of oil across the world in

462
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: Ukraine visa VI there attacks on Russia and also are

463
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: current attacks on Iran. You can't even make this shit up. Now,

464
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 1: why would the Ukrainians be doing this, Well, they're mad

465
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 1: because the Russians are making billions of right now. After

466
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was

467
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 1: already at sea, the Kremlin had booked billions from India,

468
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 1: who is already gobbling up as much Russian oil as

469
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 1: they can. I also want to make this clear, the

470
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 1: Ukrainians right now are in a desperate spot because literally

471
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 1: just this morning the news broke that current deliveries that

472
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: were supposed to be made to Ukraine are very likely

473
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: going to be made there are going to have to

474
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 1: make their way to the Middle East. A lot of

475
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: these are interceptors, patriot batteries, munitions, other things that have

476
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: been very useful to the Ukrainians, which the US has

477
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 1: continued to supply even though we said we weren't going

478
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 1: to do that. Well, a lot of those deliveries are

479
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 1: now currently at least considering being re routed for the

480
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 1: conflict with Iran, so that would leave Ukraine less defenseless.

481
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 1: So the only thing that they're trying to do is

482
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 1: use their drones to attack all of this Russian oil

483
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: infrastructure and to make sure that the Kremlin won't make

484
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: a lot of money. Here's the thing, Ukraine doesn't care

485
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,120
Speaker 1: if we all pay more at the gas pump an

486
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: existential war of survival, but for the rest of us

487
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 1: this is a disaster. We're literally enabling the Ukrainians going after,

488
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: you know, the crown jewel currently of the Russian economy,

489
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: the only read reason that they're even still in this fight.

490
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 1: So thank you Ukraine. I also want to mention the

491
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: more desperate they get, there's some crazy shit that they've

492
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: been up to. So you probably haven't seen this story.

493
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 1: In India, they arrested a bunch of Ukrainian nationals and

494
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 1: a US mercenary. This guy named Matthew Van Dyke, who

495
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: actually knew from back in the day is old mercenaries

496
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: talked him on Twitter because he was a good source. Well,

497
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 1: it turns out he was arrested by the Indian government

498
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 1: for allegedly trying to train Indian separatist groups with a

499
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: bunch of Ukrainians to conduct drone warfare inside of India.

500
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 1: So who's the number one buyer of Russian oil India?

501
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: All right, right?

502
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 9: Who?

503
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 1: The Ukrainians are very upset with. Ukrainians are using drones

504
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: to lash out and to go after all this oil infrastructure.

505
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: The more desperate that they get, they could be up

506
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 1: you know in Nordstream, which they obviously did with our help.

507
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 1: We should be worried because for them, if they see

508
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: the arms deliveries start to dry up and all this

509
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: money going to the Kremlin, that's where they're going to

510
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 1: do the craziest stuff. Yeah, this really worries me.

511
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: And there's new reporting that we are, i mean predictably

512
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 2: going to shift some of our sources from and military

513
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 2: fut in front WUS train over to the Middle East.

514
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 7: And yeah, I mean Russia has.

515
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: Been one of maybe the biggest beneficiary of our foreign

516
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: Iran because they're able to sell their oil at premium.

517
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: We lifted some of the sanctions that are letting more

518
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: countries buy their oil. So yeah, the Ukrainians are seeing

519
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 2: that and going Okay, we've got a big problem. So

520
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: now they're trying to take more barrels of oil offline.

521
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 7: I just looking at a Wall Street Journal article.

522
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 2: The other problem is that you know, previously in different

523
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 2: energy crises, LNG was kind of the backup. But you know,

524
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: the backup itself has been degraded and is under threat.

525
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 2: The Wall Street Journal rights so warn Iran has fractured

526
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 2: every node of the regional LNG supply chain. Iranian strikes

527
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 2: on Qatar, one of the world's top LNG producers, have

528
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 2: damaged its Roslofon facility, knocking out some seventeen percent percent

529
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 2: of its capacity for up to five years, and delayed

530
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 2: the country's massive expansion plans. On Tuesday, Guitar Energy declared

531
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 2: force majure on some of its energy supply contracts, including

532
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 2: customers in China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. Meanwhile, shipping

533
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 2: through the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries around a

534
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 2: fifth of global energy, is paralyzed by our confidence, and

535
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 2: Gulf supply has also been undermined. Then, they say, even

536
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 2: if even if Trump and Iron agree to end the

537
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 2: war soon, the consequences for the lergy market will be

538
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 2: long lasting and even more profound than for oil. So

539
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: even if An ends tomorrow. They're saying this is going

540
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,360
Speaker 2: to reverberate. I also saw an estimate today of inflation,

541
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: significant inflation already based on where we're already at in

542
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 2: the war for the.

543
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: Year, and you are the current track. Remember let's take

544
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: you on at its word. Who knows that they'll be

545
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: able to achieve it. They want two hundred of barrel,

546
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: So let's put D four up here on the screen.

547
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 1: This is there's been some interesting movement actually, and I

548
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: do want to flag this. There actually has been a

549
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: overall decrease in the price of physics oil. And the

550
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:04,400
Speaker 1: reason I'm flagging it is there's no real explanation as

551
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: to why. There is some theory that there was a

552
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: single buyer that was bidding up the price, and now

553
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 1: it's coming back down to reality, which is where around

554
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten dollars a barrel, which is roughly

555
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 1: where the price of Brent is right now, like at

556
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: one hundred and I think what is West Texas something

557
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: like eighty nine ninety dollars per barrel. But the bigger

558
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 1: issue is that the physical supply problem does eventually have

559
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: to catch up with market and the current expectation for

560
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: a lot of these markets. Is that all of these

561
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: signals from Trump about oh, we're going to back down

562
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: or we're going to have some sort of deal, it's

563
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 1: the job owning from the administration, from the Israelis about

564
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: potential ceasefire. All of that is to buy them as

565
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 1: much runway as possible. And for some reason, that's what

566
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: a lot of people believe. But at the end of

567
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: the day, the LNG and the oil math will eventually

568
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: catch up in some respect to where things are. And

569
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: even though that may not result and two hundred a barrel,

570
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 1: if we're going to live for the next two years

571
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: at ninety to one hundred to one hundred and twenty

572
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: something like, that's still really bad. I mean, four dollars

573
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 1: a gallon for gas for years is a serious economic

574
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: problem and actually will cause very high inflation, not to

575
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 1: mention the jet fuel problem I talked about earlier, as

576
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: well as diesel, which remains well over five dollars a gallon. Actually,

577
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 1: to this point, let's put D five up there on

578
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,719
Speaker 1: the screen. They make this exact point in the New

579
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: York Times. High oil and gas could outlast the war

580
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 1: with Iran. His promised rapid relief. Americans will feel the

581
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: financial sting for some time after it ends, because they

582
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: point exactly to this massive increase in oil price as

583
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: well as diesel with no real supply that we'll be

584
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: able to make up all of the backlog in the

585
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 1: near or the interim period, especially with a global commodity.

586
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: You can do your best with the strategic petroleum reserve,

587
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: with gas taxes and the Jones Act and all that,

588
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: but it's just not going to be able to do

589
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: very much. And our own aging infrastructure has a problem.

590
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: Let's put D six up. Many of you may have

591
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: seen this. The Valero Port Arthur refinery had a big

592
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: fire at the diesel hydrotreater. I don't know what that is,

593
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,479
Speaker 1: but I did ask around. It's like a specific, very

594
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: important part of the of the actual refinery. Remember, we

595
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 1: have not built any new refineries in the United States

596
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: in decades. Most of them are operating on very old technology.

597
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 1: There's a lot of environmental regulations, et cetera around it.

598
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 1: So we're super reliant on a very few number of

599
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 1: refineries which are not in the best condition. And so

600
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: whether this is an industrial accident, industrial esponage, who knows.

601
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: We have no idea, but it is something, and of

602
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: course it's an indicator, especially at a time when we're

603
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: out here threatening the entire energy infrastructure of all of Iran. Yeah,

604
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: that's what's scary.

605
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: It's another vulnerability. So in a filing they said it

606
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 2: was due to an unforseeable release of process fluid and

607
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 2: complex too, so whatever that means, some sort of industrial accident.

608
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 2: But in any case, the refineinery issue is also the

609
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 2: reason why even if an export ban was implemented, it

610
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 2: likely wouldn't solve the problem for US and obviously would

611
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: completely score the screw the rest of the world, because

612
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: we just don't have the refinery capacity to deal with

613
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 2: the specific type of oil that we have here in

614
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 2: the US. Last piece here, let's put D eight. We've

615
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: got new Iranian threats against the Red Sea. Was that

616
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 2: was the other one, which obviously a very significant thing

617
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 2: to watch, and another escalation potential that they that they

618
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 2: obviously have in any case, this is the decline in

619
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 2: crude oil exports across any number of countries. So Kuwait

620
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: is down seventy two percent, a Rock North is down

621
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 2: forty nine percent, a Rock South is down seventy six percent,

622
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: Saudi is down fifty two percent, and then you have

623
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 2: some increases, some small increases in from ran lol Oman

624
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 2: plus seven percent and Russia plus fourteen percent, although I

625
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: suspect that will be hindered by this Ukrainian attack. But

626
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: in any case, this is com pairing this month versus

627
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: the first twenty three days of February twenty twenty six.

628
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: So month over month, how are we looking. That's the

629
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: you know, that's the reality. And you can you can

630
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 2: talk a good game as much as you want, you

631
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: can do as much market manipulation as you want to

632
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 2: try to do if you're President Trump and Scott Bessett

633
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 2: and the rest of the team. But at the end

634
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: of the day, this is a physical good that you

635
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: know has a tangible reality associated with it, unlike most

636
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: of the stock market.

637
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: Exactly right, All right, let's get to Professor Robert Pape

638
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: standing by joining us again is Professor Robert Pape over

639
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: the University of Chicago. He is also the author of

640
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: the Escalation Trap on Substack, a great substack, which we

641
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: highly recommend, and we'll have a link down in the description.

642
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: But he's joining us once again to talk specifically about

643
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,479
Speaker 1: the theory and framework which he has invented and now

644
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: popularized the escalation trap, and how many of the current

645
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: events in Iran fit very specifically into the frameworks and systems.

646
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: He's late. So, sir, first of all, thank you so

647
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: much for joining us again. It's great to see you.

648
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 9: It's really great to be here again, and thank you

649
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 9: for all the explanation here that we're able to give

650
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 9: to this audience. I see a hunger for this, and

651
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 9: I really appreciate what you're doing.

652
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: Of course, and likewise because we wouldn't be able to

653
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:19,719
Speaker 1: do it with somebody like you. So we did actually

654
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: flag a very interesting segment that former Sentcom Commander Secretary

655
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: of Defense Jim Mattis actually gave at a recent conference

656
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: where he warned very much of how you should not

657
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: confuse targetry with strategy. Let's take listen to what he

658
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 1: said and we'll get your reaction.

659
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 10: A situation where targetry never makes up for a lack

660
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 10: of strategy, and by that I mean fifteen thousand targets

661
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 10: have been hit. There have been significant military successes, but

662
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 10: they are not matched by strategic outcomes. Now, some of

663
00:31:54,080 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 10: the strategic outcomes early on unconditional surrender, regime change, going

664
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 10: to dictate who the next supremelyri is. Those were clearly nonsense,

665
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 10: those were delusional.

666
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 1: Clearly nonsense and delusional. Professor, These are sobering words from

667
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: the former Secretary of Defense here, Jim Madison. How does

668
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: it fit with the current option set that we have

669
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: in front of us for what's going to happen next

670
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: to Iran?

671
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 9: Well, what we are watching now is not a path

672
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 9: to peace. It is the escalation trap both sides. I

673
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 9: believe Iran in the United States believe they're managing this conflict. However,

674
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 9: they are heading into a wider war, a longer war,

675
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 9: and a more disastrous war. What you're seeing with Secretary

676
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 9: Madis is an indicator. He almost never speaks publicly, and

677
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 9: when he speaks, he almost never criticizes his former boss,

678
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 9: President Trump. The fact that he's speaking at all and

679
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 9: criticizing Trump is important. Second thing to note is this

680
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 9: framework that I've been offering here, the difference between tactical

681
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 9: success and strategic success. I think in part to your program,

682
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 9: other programs, the sub stack. This is helping to make

683
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 9: sense of what otherwise appears chaotic to so many people,

684
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 9: which is how can our bombs hit targets, and yet

685
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 9: we're getting sucked into what appears to be this wider,

686
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 9: longer war, the administration asking for two hundred billion dollars more.

687
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 9: How does all that make sense? Well, these simple frameworks

688
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 9: that I'm offering, you're seeing it's not just helpful for me,

689
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 9: not just for a professor. It's really helpful to make

690
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 9: sense of what's otherwise just a confusing situation, and he's

691
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 9: using them.

692
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 2: Let me go ahead and get your reaction to this

693
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: new report that just came out this morning. For Barackravid,

694
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: who is very close with US officials and also Israeli officials,

695
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: usually sort of prints the things that they give to him,

696
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 2: and so it says your Pentagon prepares for massive quote

697
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 2: final blow of Iran wore the idea here, seeming to

698
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 2: be another escalate to de escalate idea. They floated four

699
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: different options. Number one invading or blockading carg Island. Number

700
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 2: two invading Laracan Island that helps Iran solidify its control

701
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 2: of Straight of Hormuz.

702
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 7: Number three seizing a different strategic.

703
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 2: Island named Abu Musa in two smaller islands which lie

704
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: near the western entrance to the Straight and are controlled

705
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: by Iran, but also claimed by the UAE and number

706
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 2: four blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil

707
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 2: on the eastern side of the Hormuz straight. They also

708
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: theorized that there could be some sort of an option

709
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: to try to go in and seize loose nuclear material,

710
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 2: which is something we have heard before as an idea.

711
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 2: So what do you make of this report and also

712
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 2: how does it fit in with the with the.

713
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 7: Claims from Trump that oh, we're negotiating.

714
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 2: With the Iranians and net Yahoo apparently leaked to his

715
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 2: breast that we think there's going to be a ceasefire

716
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 2: this weekend.

717
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 9: So what this is is very strong evidence that we're

718
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 9: heading towards stage three of the escalation trap that I

719
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 9: outlined on the sub stack days before the first bomb fell.

720
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:28,240
Speaker 9: So I explained Stage one would be bombing, attack the leaders,

721
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 9: We would hit target, likely kill leaders. Stage two would

722
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 9: be Iran would lash back. And they've now lashed back,

723
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 9: not just hitting the GCC countries but taking the Strait

724
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 9: of Hormuz. They are more powerful than they were before,

725
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 9: both dangerous and powerful. And then I said this would

726
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 9: drive us to stage three, and I said it would

727
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 9: be framed as limited limited territorial conquest, and that idea

728
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 9: of limited we should understand what that is is not

729
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 9: anything like a final set of moves. That's the beginning

730
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 9: of stage three, which will then become irreversible. The true

731
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 9: redline here that makes it really impossible to walk back

732
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 9: from is going to be any of those options you

733
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 9: just laid out that. Now they're going through it, and

734
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 9: it doesn't really matter which one, because all of them

735
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 9: are going to include deaths by our troops, much more

736
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 9: than we have. And as those troops die, and we

737
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 9: will try to keep this to a minimum I've taught

738
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 9: for the US Air Force, I have confidence will try.

739
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 9: But as they die, the thirty five to thirty six

740
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 9: percent of the public supporting this war will harden. They

741
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 9: will themselves psychologically double down. This is what I deal with,

742
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 9: ideal with action at military action and politics not just

743
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 9: in the enemy country but in our own. And this

744
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 9: is how you get that hardening, because that thirty six

745
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 9: percent will say to themselves quietly or publicly, those one

746
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 9: hundred or two hundred marines, set eighty parachuters died for me,

747
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 9: and I don't want their deaths to be wasted. That's

748
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:18,439
Speaker 9: how you get the continuous double down. That's how then

749
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 9: this becomes really politically almost impossible to stop and you

750
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 9: end up with likely something like starting with a limited

751
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 9: operation that expands to perhaps a three to six month

752
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 9: war of attrition. That is where stage three, that's that

753
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 9: red line of stage three. I've been laying this out

754
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 9: and you're seeing strong indicators that this is not a

755
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 9: path to piece. We're heading right to stage three, and

756
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 9: stage three is a cliff and it is not like

757
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 9: the other stages. Each of these three stages is a

758
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 9: phase level, not just more attack, phase level of the

759
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 9: escalation trap. And this will be the key red line.

760
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 1: Professor. I've been thinking about you so much, especially with

761
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: those words final blow. I'm like, I've never heard that

762
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: before except in every conflict ever. You have a tweet

763
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: here e six we can put up here on the screen,

764
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: which is North Vietnam. How they were able to use

765
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: negotiations to deep indivisions in the US. I'm just wondering

766
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 1: if you could lay out the historical parallel of where

767
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: we are to that political aspect of our population.

768
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 9: There are so many parallels to the Vietnam War. It's stunning.

769
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 9: Pete Haig says, sounds just like Robert McNamara, where the

770
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 9: Pentagon inching up, ratcheting up, moving up the escalation run.

771
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 9: We're just about just one more blow and we will

772
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 9: find the breaking point. That was the famous phrase used

773
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 9: in the with mac namara and the Johnson administration in

774
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 9: the Vietnam War, We're gonna get their breaking point. Well,

775
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 9: notice this is exactly the same rhetoric, almost word for word,

776
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,439
Speaker 9: out of the President and Pete HEGs. And then if

777
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 9: you look at what is occurring at each stage of

778
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 9: the incremental escalation, which we swore we would never do again,

779
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 9: at each stage of the incremental escalation, you have tactical success.

780
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 9: We win a tactical outcome, but we don't get a

781
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 9: strategic outcome. The other side is not collapsing, it's in

782
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 9: fact hardening. It's doing things to hurt us in really hard,

783
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 9: powerful ways, and even worse than the Vietnam War. The

784
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 9: Vietnamese never controlled twenty percent of the world's oil. So

785
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 9: this is Vietnam essentially on steroids now, because you have

786
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 9: not just the escalation dynamics of the Vietnam War playing

787
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 9: themselves again right in front of our eyes, but the

788
00:39:55,880 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 9: stakes are much bigger than the Vietnam War, and it's

789
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 9: because Iran has a grip on the throat of the

790
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 9: world's economy. Twenty percent of the world's oil is huge,

791
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 9: and what have they been threatening just in the last

792
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 9: twenty four hours. They're going to expand that to the

793
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 9: Red Sea, they're now saying, and that could be with

794
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 9: the Hoothis. Keep in mind a year ago when President

795
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 9: Trump did a one month air campaign against the Houthies.

796
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 9: He failed. He's had to give it up and say, oh,

797
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 9: can't beat the hoo Thi's gonna have to go find

798
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 9: something out. So this isn't like we can't we haven't

799
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 9: beaten Iran, and the idea that now we're about to

800
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 9: beat we haven't beaten the Hoothies yet. And now they

801
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 9: are on deck here. So think about this, they're on deck.

802
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 9: That's another five seven percent of the world's oil. This

803
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 9: is now we're we're we're not going to be able

804
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 9: to talk down the price of oil much longer at

805
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 9: this rate.

806
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 2: Let's put E five up on the screen because you're

807
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: talking about the political dyning invention of this, which obviously

808
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: is extremely important. We have, you know, we're already in

809
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: midterm season and there's all kinds of primaries going on.

810
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 2: People are big in their candidates. You know, it is

811
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 2: truly right around the corner. And to your point, the

812
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: war is already very unpopular, and usually usually wars are

813
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 2: actually pretty popular when they start. It's only later that

814
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 2: they become unpopular. But you can see the opposition number

815
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 2: ticking up day by day. At the same time we

816
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 2: talked about this some earlier in the show, President Trump's

817
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: approval rating is ticking down.

818
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 7: Day by day.

819
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: There was a new poll that had him out at

820
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: a new low of thirty six percent approval rating. So,

821
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,280
Speaker 2: as you know, if we move into this next stage,

822
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 2: you're saying that the support that exists for the war

823
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:36,320
Speaker 2: will harden.

824
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 7: What about with the rest of the public, what will

825
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 7: that look like?

826
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 9: It will fracture even more So. I realize you may

827
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,720
Speaker 9: not know, but in September I have a big book

828
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 9: coming out about American political violence. And my nightmare scenario

829
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 9: has been for several years that we would have this

830
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 9: trajectory of what's happening in a mayor domestically, and you

831
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,240
Speaker 9: can already see we had Chicago, Minneapolis, et cetera, et cetera,

832
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 9: and a mega international crisis like Iran happened at exactly

833
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 9: the same time. And what you are seeing here is

834
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 9: the evidence that this was a real This was right

835
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,840
Speaker 9: to have the fear, because that chart you just showed

836
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 9: that's historically unprecedented here as long as we've been doing

837
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 9: polling now, we don't know what happened before the nineteen

838
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 9: thirty so we don't have polling going back that you know,

839
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 9: one hundred and fifty years or two hundred years. But nonetheless,

840
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,240
Speaker 9: if you go back here to when we started polling,

841
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 9: we don't see that the American public normally rallies around

842
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 9: a president when they use force and has in all

843
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 9: these other cases, and airpower in particular, there's the promise

844
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 9: of quick victory, no cost, so you tend to get

845
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 9: even more rally around the flag with airpower. That's not

846
00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 9: happening here. So we're starting already, and what's unfortunately we're

847
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 9: heading toward, and this is if we go off a

848
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 9: cliff internationally, there's an iceberg we're going to hit as

849
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 9: a country in the fall. That's what I'll be talking

850
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 9: about then, because I will explain we're heading to what

851
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 9: I call fractured legitimacy, a new term. So remember, I

852
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 9: do the frameworks. You're about to get a new framework,

853
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 9: I'm sorry to say. And it's the book's already coming.

854
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 9: They're already being printed, they're already coming out. It's the

855
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 9: new Press. So they'll be very glad I'm telling you

856
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 9: about this right now. They're waiting for me on the

857
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 9: other end of this call. And so I'm just pointing

858
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 9: out that unfortunately, this is not just simply another international problem.

859
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 9: It's actually the worst international problem. This will be bigger

860
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 9: than Iraq, could be more costly in American military lives

861
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 9: than Iraq. That was four point four, That was a

862
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 9: four thousand, one hundred. But it will surely be more

863
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 9: costly geopolitically and with the world economy than Iraq. And

864
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 9: so what we are heading toward are these lines crossing

865
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 9: in September. And this is really unprecedented for our country,

866
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 9: beyond unprecedented. So I'm very concerned about those numbers.

867
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, just thinking off of the top of my head,

868
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: like some historical parallel, what are you thinking October nineteen seventeen,

869
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: you know, Russia, like World War One?

870
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 9: I meant, no, I'm going to explain that again, you're

871
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 9: trying to get me to get the book out. I understand. No,

872
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 9: I don't know the nightmare scenarios. People are talking about

873
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 9: the civil war scenarios here. They're just not helpful because

874
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 9: they're not realistic the movie, you know, Bad After Battle,

875
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 9: you know. So what we have here right now is

876
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 9: you have people that are novelists. You have people following

877
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 9: this making money on this. Here, you just don't have

878
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 9: the escalation framework person or people who've been focusing on

879
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 9: that for thirty years. You have people say, oh, I

880
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 9: can catch that, I can catch that wave. This isn't

881
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 9: what this book is about. This is not a Johnny

882
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 9: Come Lately. I've been working on this book for five

883
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 9: solid years. And that will be clear with all the data.

884
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 9: There will be five years of opinion polled data that

885
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 9: I've collected here, and we have nobody has that twenty

886
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 9: years of our twenty national surveys over five years on

887
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 9: the support for political violence in the United States. So again,

888
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,399
Speaker 9: this isn't just a quick book to kind of catch

889
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 9: up to a wave you will see when the book

890
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 9: comes out. This is a complete this This is again

891
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 9: like the escalation trap. What you are seeing is not

892
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:57,760
Speaker 9: the product of instant reaction. You're seeing that there's somebody

893
00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 9: who's been focusing on these issues four years, Aron Moore

894
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 9: twenty years, American political violence five years, Well that and

895
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 9: then is married to frameworks, and you're seeing the frameworks

896
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 9: are valuable and that I will offer even more frameworks

897
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 9: down the road. But for this crisis, I just want

898
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 9: to point out we really need to just understand that

899
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,760
Speaker 9: when we hit that stage three as we're heading toward,

900
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 9: we haven't hit there yet, and I'm doing everything I

901
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 9: can to try to pull us back from that. But

902
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 9: what that's going to do to that thirty six thirty

903
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 9: nine percent you showed is it's likely going to harden

904
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 9: it initially and see the public the bottom did not

905
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 9: fall out by the public and the Vietnam War like overnight.

906
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 9: And it's not a linear thing exactly with casualties, although

907
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 9: it does tend to sort of go there. Need to

908
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 9: understand that there are people supporting this war, and as

909
00:46:55,920 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 9: people die for them for their position, they will be sticky.

910
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 9: Much like there were people very angry when we withdrew

911
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 9: from Afghanistan. So you will see a similar dynamic here now.

912
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 9: Over time, it will likely come down, but that may

913
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 9: not happen for a period of months. We just need

914
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 9: to be aware. That's the stickiness here, because we're going

915
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:24,879
Speaker 9: to permanent losses and that's going to have a political role.

916
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,439
Speaker 9: Now the other sixty percent, they're going to harden two.

917
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 9: So this is what we're facing. It's facing a fracture.

918
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 9: But as that fractures, you are still have a president

919
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 9: in office. That president controls the use of force, and

920
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 9: so you may well see this doubling down. And I

921
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 9: think you're in it. You're heading toward. If we cross

922
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 9: into any of those ground scenarios here, no matter who allies,

923
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 9: no matter who else comes, you are likely to see

924
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 9: this month's long war of attrition. And then you haven't

925
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 9: seen anything yet with the global economy. The shocks we've

926
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 9: seen so far, these have all been mitigated by talking

927
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,919
Speaker 9: down the price. That's not going to be possible once

928
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 9: we crossed phase three.

929
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 1: Wow, professor, just last question for you. I think here,

930
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: as we prepare for the end of the deadline, you're

931
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 1: saying that any sort of ground scenario basically enables Stage

932
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: three to begin, but it will probably have an attrition.

933
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,760
Speaker 1: Is there simply no way you think in your framework

934
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:31,720
Speaker 1: or there could be some quote limited operation.

935
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 9: Well, no, because what you would do, like, let's imagine,

936
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 9: let's just take one of those four scenarios eighty second airborne.

937
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 9: That's about what you would need a thousand paratroopers to

938
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 9: take the airport on Karj Island. Then you would try

939
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 9: to reinforce that. But it's a thousand. So let's say

940
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 9: you only took the airport on Krje Island. Let's say

941
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 9: you know, dozens, maybe even one hundred die as they're

942
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 9: coming down because they're being shot at as they're coming

943
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 9: down in the parachutes. So you've now got the But

944
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 9: then are you just gonna leave them there? And how

945
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 9: are you gonna get them back? You see? Are you

946
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 9: gonna fly in see one thirties to get them out?

947
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 9: Are you gonna fly in osprey's to get them out?

948
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,799
Speaker 9: What exactly are we gonna do once we got them there?

949
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:19,720
Speaker 9: Because see, they can they're the pointy end of the spirit,

950
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,880
Speaker 9: meaning they take the entry point, but they don't hold

951
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 9: the entry point, they don't reinforce the entry point, and

952
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 9: after a few days they're gonna run out of food

953
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 9: and water. So you really can't you've got to make

954
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 9: a decision. So you now have a thousand people, and

955
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 9: yes you lost some portion just to get them there

956
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:41,840
Speaker 9: in the first twenty four thirty six hours or so forth.

957
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,919
Speaker 9: But now they're there, and are we gonna walk from

958
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 9: a thousand people? Because it seems like the Iranians are

959
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 9: up for killing every single one. So I think this

960
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 9: is really how you then why that word limited, I

961
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 9: think is really disingenuous. It's not I do use it

962
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 9: put in scare quotes because that is how I thought

963
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 9: it would be sold to the public. It is how

964
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,919
Speaker 9: it's being sold. But I think we should be under

965
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,839
Speaker 9: no illusion that there's an actual equilibrium point. The only

966
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 9: equilibrium point is if the Iranians say we changed our mind,

967
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 9: We're suddenly going to give up the straight of horm moves,

968
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,240
Speaker 9: welcome you in with open arms. Here we're just seeing

969
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 9: no sign of that in this regime. And the regime

970
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 9: just killed twenty thousand to thirty thousand of its own

971
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 9: people to stay in power. Why are they not going

972
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,919
Speaker 9: to kill Americans and every single one they can get?

973
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:37,799
Speaker 1: Well? Scary stuff, but as always, we enjoy talking to you, sir.

974
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining US escalations happening.

975
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 9: You very much for letting us explain this to your

976
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 9: great audience.

977
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:44,280
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, ser a pleasure.

978
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 2: So, as you guys know, Ryan is just back from Cuba,

979
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 2: where he was there on a reporting trip along with

980
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 2: a group that was bringing significant amount of aid to

981
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:57,719
Speaker 2: the island which is blockaded by the choice of our

982
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 2: own government, with catastrophic consequence is for all Cubans there

983
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 2: on the island, which he was able to document some

984
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 2: of and talk to Emily about yesterday. I'm sure, Sager,

985
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 2: you've seen like all the shit he's taken over. I've

986
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 2: seen the dumbest little possible things.

987
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: Ever, what is it staying in hotels which you're required.

988
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,399
Speaker 2: Which you're required to stay in, yes, and the fact

989
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 2: that the hotels have electricity but the hospitals don't, which

990
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 2: is a choice of the Trump administration which is allowing

991
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 2: fuel sales to private businesses but not public entities like

992
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 2: the hospitals, which are of course publicly owned.

993
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 7: Famously, and I'm.

994
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,240
Speaker 1: Sure Ryan would have happily had the hospital have energy

995
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: as opposed to oh my god, not like exactly it

996
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 1: was up to him. He also went there just try

997
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 1: and report and get information on what he's brought back

998
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 1: is honestly harrowing. And look, everyone needs to pay attention

999
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 1: because did you have you noticed all these Cubans. They're like, Hey,

1000
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 1: you did Venezuela, and you did Iran, We're next.

1001
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 7: Yeah.

1002
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: And if you go outside mar A Lago, you've got

1003
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,839
Speaker 1: all of these Cuba signs that are all up right now.

1004
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,280
Speaker 1: They're all living in Florida. Remember, there's a very powerful

1005
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: political lobby. You've got a Cuban who's literally the US

1006
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 1: Secretary of State and said, I think his father's dying

1007
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:05,280
Speaker 1: wish was to make sure that communism was rid of Cuba.

1008
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 1: You've got these ultimatums that are have so we are

1009
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 1: not ruling this out. Also, very undernoticed two new amphibious

1010
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 1: I forget exactly the term, the specific type of ship

1011
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: on their way to the Caribbean. Oh really Yeah, So

1012
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 1: just because just because we withdrew some there are still

1013
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 1: US naval assets which are actually moving back to the

1014
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 1: Caribbean and to keep some sort of force posture there

1015
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 1: in the case that we go after Cuba. Trump, what

1016
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 1: did he say?

1017
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 2: He said, it will be our privilege, it will be

1018
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:35,320
Speaker 2: my privilege to take it said I will take Cuba.

1019
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 2: It will be my privilege. Many presidents have wanted to

1020
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 2: It will be my privilege to take the island. Reporters

1021
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,359
Speaker 2: were like, what does that mean? And here's the thing

1022
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:46,479
Speaker 2: is Well, one other update to give you guys before

1023
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 2: I throw this interview that Ryan did with a high

1024
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: level Cuban official, the Carlos Cassio, who is the Cuban

1025
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 2: deputy Foreign minister. Yesterday, some of the activists who are

1026
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 2: part of that trip were coming back flying through Miami

1027
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 2: and they were all detained and interrogated and had their

1028
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 2: phone seized by US immigration authorities. Here, you know, obvious

1029
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:10,479
Speaker 2: and blatant attempt at intimidation. So these are the type

1030
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 2: of you know, authoritarian tactics that this administration is happy,

1031
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 2: happy to deploy. But I'm going to throw this interview.

1032
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 2: But one of the things Ryan wanted to make sure

1033
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:20,919
Speaker 2: that we note is that, you know, unlike Ron where

1034
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 2: they're like we're done negotiating, like you're gonna have to

1035
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 2: feel pain, and no we're not. You know, we're not

1036
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 2: coming to the table with you again, so you can

1037
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,359
Speaker 2: murder us again. The Cubans are open to making some

1038
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: kind of deal. You know, sort of similar to the

1039
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: Venezuela situation where Mador was like, I will give you

1040
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 2: literal gold, I will do business with you with the

1041
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 2: like I have lots of things we can do together.

1042
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,359
Speaker 2: Come and let's make a deal. But Trump preferred to

1043
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:45,319
Speaker 2: just like kidnap him, and, you know, in this very

1044
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:48,319
Speaker 2: colonial way, effectively take over the country. I know, who

1045
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 2: was it that just came back with a bunch of

1046
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 2: gold from there? Oh, Doug Bergram, I think came back

1047
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 2: with a bunch of gold from Venezuela. So in any case,

1048
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 2: it's a similar dynamic where the Cubans are like, no,

1049
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 2: we'll we will work out a deal with you, but

1050
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:04,399
Speaker 2: the Trump administration is apparent apparently wholly uninterested in that.

1051
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 2: So in this interview with Carlos Cossio, the Cuban Deputy

1052
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 2: four ad minister, you'll hear him talking about how they're

1053
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 2: open to offering even compensation to American companies as part of.

1054
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 7: A broader deal.

1055
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 2: So, with all of that being said, here is Ryan

1056
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:18,880
Speaker 2: interviewing that Cuban official.

1057
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 11: Thank you so much for agreeing to do this. I

1058
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 11: really appreciate it.

1059
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:26,760
Speaker 12: So as you're as your country is entering into negotiations

1060
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 12: with the United States.

1061
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:31,399
Speaker 11: I'm wondering how much it is in.

1062
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,760
Speaker 12: The back of the mind of negotiators that the United

1063
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 12: States twice entered into negotiations with Iran and in the

1064
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 12: middle of those.

1065
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 11: Negotiations started wars.

1066
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 12: Recently and then back in June, Palestinian negotiators have also

1067
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 12: been attacked. What is that done to the structure and

1068
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 12: the psychology of negotiations with the United with the United States?

1069
00:54:57,800 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 11: Is it something that's in your head.

1070
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 4: It's very present in our mind. We see what happens,

1071
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 4: We have experience, and we take that into account. The

1072
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,800
Speaker 4: problem is that we have or the issue not the problem,

1073
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 4: is that we have a standing position of trying to

1074
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 4: find our problems or to solve our problems with any country,

1075
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 4: and that includes the United States through dialogue, respectful and

1076
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:27,800
Speaker 4: responsible dialog based on international law and respect to sovereignty

1077
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 4: of both countries. And one would ask, well, do you

1078
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 4: trust it? We see no alternative. We believe it's the

1079
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 4: only way in which we can find solution to the

1080
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 4: issues between Cuba and the United States, and we truly

1081
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 4: believe that they could be found. We don't think that

1082
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 4: our two countries should live forever in hostility. There's no

1083
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 4: animosity from Cuba to the United States. To give you

1084
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 4: an idea, there's never been a burning out of American

1085
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 4: flag in Cuba that I know or that anyone knows of.

1086
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 4: There is no conflict of an ethnical of a cultural

1087
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 4: nature with the United States. In fact, we have quite

1088
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 4: a close relationship with many people of the United States

1089
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 4: that visit US directly or indirectly, and that engage with

1090
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 4: US in many areas in arts, culture, sports, science, in

1091
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 4: many areas. So we were ready to sit down now.

1092
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:25,280
Speaker 4: We also have another experience, which is that in previous

1093
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 4: engagements with the United States, including the most meaningful one

1094
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 4: in twenty fifteen, for sixteen seventeen, Cuba fulfilled all of

1095
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 4: the commitments of which we agreed upon. The US failed

1096
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 4: on most of them. And it's not that we say it.

1097
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 4: People who participated in that process acknowledge it, and the

1098
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 4: government of the United States declared it openly that they

1099
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 4: would not feel that they were bound by those agreements

1100
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 4: and that they would break it. So we also have

1101
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 4: that experience, but that does not stop us from exploring

1102
00:56:58,360 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 4: and accepting an invitation by the US to sit down

1103
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 4: and have a dial.

1104
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 12: You recently talked about how Cuba is open to allowing

1105
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 12: Cuban nationals or Cuban Americans to live in the United

1106
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 12: States or or investors from the United States investing here

1107
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 12: in Cuba, which isn't which isn't necessarily new, but it

1108
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 12: was it was reported in the United States as if

1109
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 12: that was new. But one of the chief obstacles there

1110
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 12: is that as as you know, if there is that

1111
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 12: investment that has made you will then have other investors

1112
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 12: go to US courts and say and claim that no,

1113
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:36,000
Speaker 12: that is that's compensated.

1114
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 11: You know, that is that's stolen property. You know that

1115
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 11: is my property.

1116
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 12: You go to court helms Burton and the court will say, okay,

1117
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 12: well now you you know, eurowed a billion dollars because

1118
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 12: they traded your stolen property. So how do you how

1119
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 12: do how does Cuba envision moving past that kind of

1120
00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 12: catch twenty two? You there can't be foreign investment from

1121
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 12: the United States if other investors can go to US

1122
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 12: courts and seize that investment.

1123
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 4: Well, first, it's not totally new, but the scope with

1124
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 4: which we're doing it and the openness which we're doing

1125
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 4: it today, and the facilities that we're putting in place

1126
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 4: isn't new for and also I say the scope because

1127
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 4: we're talking about small investment, but also big investment.

1128
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 11: Would be an example of infrastructure.

1129
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 4: In highways, in parts of electricity, not the national grid,

1130
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 4: in big buildings, and tourism, in in agriculture, in industries,

1131
00:58:38,400 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 4: big industries, tourism, tourism, the sugar industry, the rum industry,

1132
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 4: or open to that for foreign investors, including Cubans, lib abroad,

1133
00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:52,640
Speaker 4: not necessarily in the US, but also in the US.

1134
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 4: I would want to invest in Cuban, and that's new,

1135
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 4: and that the scope with which we are doing it,

1136
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:01,439
Speaker 4: the openness and the facilities are new. In other words,

1137
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 4: it's more active towards Cubans specifically, the not all property

1138
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:12,440
Speaker 4: in Cuba belonged to the US, A lot of it

1139
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 4: and the most productive. But so there's a lot of

1140
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 4: areas in Cuba in which you can invest and nobody

1141
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 4: could claim that they were a former owner nor go

1142
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 4: to court. Thirdly, based on Cuba's law, that has no problem.

1143
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:30,720
Speaker 4: It could have a problem in the United States, but

1144
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 4: helps burden as a law has proven its false. None

1145
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 4: none of the demands that have been put in place

1146
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 4: and there are very few has been successful up to now.

1147
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 4: The last effort has gone to the Supreme Court because

1148
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 4: he has failed. It's with excellent it has failed in

1149
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 4: previous courts. We know the politics in the United States.

1150
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 4: We understand how politics and policy of the government influence

1151
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 4: the courts. So we are expecting to see what's happened.

1152
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 4: But the up to now they have they have been

1153
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:10,480
Speaker 4: they have not been successful. And in addition to that,

1154
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 4: the US government, if it want it can make exceptions

1155
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 4: right so that whoever wants to invest specifically or in

1156
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 4: Gero would never go to court.

1157
01:00:20,640 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 12: Is there is there a holistic agreement that could see

1158
01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:29,200
Speaker 12: compensation for some of the property that was American, so

1159
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 12: that so that that issue is no longer dogging efforts

1160
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 12: to grow and develop the country.

1161
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 4: Holistic agreements are the approach that the world has and

1162
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:41,320
Speaker 4: it's the one that we had in the early sixties.

1163
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 4: We had a holistic agreement called lum sum agreements. They're

1164
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 4: called with the governments. There were six governments of the

1165
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 4: country's property were nationalized in Cuban. All of them had

1166
01:00:56,400 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 4: compensation schemes. All of them were compensated, with the exception

1167
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 4: of the US because the US government simply refused the

1168
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 4: terms that were proposed by Cuba and refused. Then when

1169
01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 4: Cuba said, well, let's sit down, let's find an agreeable

1170
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 4: solution between and it refused to sit down. Naturally, we

1171
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 4: learned later that they were planning the Bay of Pigs

1172
01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 4: invasion at the time, so they said, why would we negotiate.

1173
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 4: But the rest were done, and today's studies have been

1174
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 4: made that if the agreement would have been accepted by

1175
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 4: the United States, all of them would have been compensated

1176
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 4: by the mid eighties, all of the Americans, which were

1177
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,439
Speaker 4: the larger But the only solution for this is through

1178
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 4: Loumso now we're ready to sit down in the United

1179
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 4: States and discuss these issues. But Cuba also has claims.

1180
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:50,520
Speaker 4: We believe the Cuban people, in the Cuban nation needs, requires,

1181
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 4: or deserves to be compensated for damage done by the

1182
01:01:54,360 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 4: economic blockade, by the invasions, by terrorism, by assassinations, by

1183
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 4: actions violent actions against the economy, and so we're ready

1184
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 4: to sit down, and in fact, during the Obama years

1185
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:10,640
Speaker 4: we sat down. We believe we can still sit down,

1186
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,240
Speaker 4: perhaps not follow the same approach, we can innovate a

1187
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 4: new approach, but we need to sit down government to.

1188
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 12: Government, so lump sum would be back on the table.

1189
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 12: In any holistic it would.

1190
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 4: Happen and in which again our claims would be at

1191
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 4: the same table.

1192
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 12: What is what is your sense of what happened with

1193
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 12: the Biden administration? There was a there was a sense

1194
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:36,960
Speaker 12: in Washington that Okay, Trump, he undid everything that Obama did,

1195
01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 12: but Biden, when he comes back in, he will.

1196
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:43,920
Speaker 4: Faithfully follow Trump. Yeah, in economic terms, not enough. He

1197
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:47,280
Speaker 4: had more diplomatic opening, but in economic terms and economic

1198
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 4: punishment to Cuba faithfully followed Trump.

1199
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:55,200
Speaker 11: Is there any analysis of why that is?

1200
01:02:56,120 --> 01:03:00,400
Speaker 4: We've had We think that there are people that the

1201
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 4: democratic government at the time you listen to some of

1202
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:08,520
Speaker 4: Cuban origin ill advice Biden tell them, look, don't make

1203
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 4: it anymore. There's no need. This country is going to collapse.

1204
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:15,439
Speaker 4: And Biden is already gone and Cuba's still here.

1205
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 11: So I've only been here a couple of days at

1206
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:18,520
Speaker 11: this point.

1207
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:21,520
Speaker 12: But even yesterday, you know, after the power was restored,

1208
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 12: and yesterday again blackout overmote much of Havana with you know,

1209
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 12: no oil has gotten in since what December. So my

1210
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:33,080
Speaker 12: thought was that this is just no way to live

1211
01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 12: like the this is, this feels unsustainable from from your

1212
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:41,600
Speaker 12: sense how you know, you can be creative, you can

1213
01:03:41,600 --> 01:03:45,880
Speaker 12: be innovative, but how long can a situation like this

1214
01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 12: go on? Before and then I don't know before what

1215
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 12: because people still wake up every day and go about,

1216
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 12: you know, and live. How do you think through what

1217
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:58,480
Speaker 12: we we near future looks like?

1218
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 4: First, we believe that some oil should come in the

1219
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 4: US has a lot of power, But is it forever

1220
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 4: sustainable for the US to be able to course every

1221
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 4: country in the world to not export fuel to Cuba.

1222
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 4: Will that be absolutely acceptable for the US government? Will

1223
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:22,880
Speaker 4: no clear mind in the US government think we're committing

1224
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:29,240
Speaker 4: huge cruelty against a whole nation. So we expect and

1225
01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 4: we could be naive about it, but we have to

1226
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:35,200
Speaker 4: hope that at some point someone's going to say, you

1227
01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:37,960
Speaker 4: do not do this to people. You do not this

1228
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 4: to a whole society, trying to kill them by suffocating

1229
01:04:42,560 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 4: them as a whole. So we still hope that some

1230
01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 4: oil would come in from some other countries or even

1231
01:04:49,640 --> 01:04:54,360
Speaker 4: from the US if they're ready to do it. And meantime,

1232
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:57,680
Speaker 4: we continue to prepare. As I said, to be less

1233
01:04:57,680 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 4: dependent on fuel than we've been. But it should not

1234
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 4: be confused. We have a very clear mind of the

1235
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 4: challenge in front of us. We have a very clear

1236
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 4: mind that time is not on our site, and that

1237
01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 4: the pressure is building on our people and the suffering

1238
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 4: is going.

1239
01:05:17,840 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 12: And so the American government often pushes for, you know,

1240
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 12: economic reforms, political reforms, and so on, So do a

1241
01:05:26,360 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 12: lot of Cuban people.

1242
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:29,080
Speaker 11: What I've heard from some.

1243
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 12: Some is that that the embargo, the blockade, the terrorism designation,

1244
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:43,160
Speaker 12: the pressure has severely limited Cuba's kind of range of motion.

1245
01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:48,280
Speaker 12: That is very difficult to innovate an experiment in a

1246
01:05:48,320 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 12: situation where you're under so much pressure.

1247
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 11: Is that true?

1248
01:05:51,680 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 12: And do you suspect that people who want to see

1249
01:05:56,000 --> 01:05:59,880
Speaker 12: various reforms would be strengthened inside the Cuban government if

1250
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 12: the embargo were lifted, if the pressure were lifted, and

1251
01:06:02,960 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 12: if Cuba could trade with other countries in a normal

1252
01:06:05,480 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 12: fashion like anybody else.

1253
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:12,200
Speaker 4: But the question is that if we feel that, who

1254
01:06:12,200 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 4: would be strengthened.

1255
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 12: People inside the government who want to reform either the

1256
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 12: economy or the political system, who want to try something different,

1257
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:26,560
Speaker 12: who want to allow for you know, different economic experiments

1258
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 12: in certain areas, would they would that be more likely

1259
01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 12: or less likely in a world where the embargo is lifted, the.

1260
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:38,760
Speaker 4: Steps that we take are collectively analyzed, we reach a

1261
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:43,880
Speaker 4: consensus to carry them out. So normally it's not this

1262
01:06:44,000 --> 01:06:45,880
Speaker 4: faction thinking of this faction, and.

1263
01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 11: The faction doesn't want to do anything. You can always

1264
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 11: say now is not the time.

1265
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:52,080
Speaker 4: Not because we've thought about some of the things. Some

1266
01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 4: things we want we need to accelerate, and some that

1267
01:06:55,560 --> 01:06:58,200
Speaker 4: we have been thinking of because of the level ofssure

1268
01:06:58,200 --> 01:06:59,640
Speaker 4: of pressure, we have to put a stop on them

1269
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 4: for them on pause, because under these conditions we cannot

1270
01:07:04,160 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 4: we simply do not have them. Some require money, to

1271
01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:09,800
Speaker 4: give you an example. Some require a level of energy

1272
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:13,440
Speaker 4: that we don't have. So we put some important reforms.

1273
01:07:13,520 --> 01:07:17,080
Speaker 11: I would say on pause, you give an example or two.

1274
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 4: I prefer not to go into that because I don't

1275
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 4: want to give expectations but have to be put on

1276
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:27,960
Speaker 4: pause against our will. But because of the conditions in

1277
01:07:29,440 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 4: which we are. But we are sure and we've been

1278
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:38,200
Speaker 4: aware of that from years. Not our economy is to

1279
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:42,320
Speaker 4: transform because the demography, the demography of the country has changed,

1280
01:07:43,280 --> 01:07:47,240
Speaker 4: the world has changed, the composition of the Cuban workforce

1281
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 4: has changed, the opportunities that we have to carry out

1282
01:07:51,240 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 4: some issues. Some things that we did in the past

1283
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:57,760
Speaker 4: are not there anymore, so we need to transform the

1284
01:07:57,800 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 4: economy and also things that we took for a great

1285
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 4: that we've studied in books. We're very good in books,

1286
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 4: but materially no country was successful doing that. So life

1287
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 4: has shown that are things that we need to do.

1288
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 4: And with the problem that there's no blueprint any in

1289
01:08:14,080 --> 01:08:16,879
Speaker 4: any country. There's no example that we can follow exactly

1290
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:20,320
Speaker 4: because no other country has been given the same set

1291
01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:24,880
Speaker 4: of cards that we have been giving, including fundamentally us hostility.

1292
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 4: But our aim is to take steps as fast as

1293
01:08:30,120 --> 01:08:35,000
Speaker 4: we can, but with caution because mistakes can cost, and

1294
01:08:35,040 --> 01:08:38,960
Speaker 4: we've made some during some transformations that we're taking out

1295
01:08:38,960 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 4: of time without the right condition. They have costs that

1296
01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:44,240
Speaker 4: have derailed us and has takenus of time to get

1297
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:45,679
Speaker 4: back on path.

1298
01:08:46,640 --> 01:08:49,080
Speaker 11: Thank you, I appreciate your time.

1299
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,160
Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.

1300
01:08:51,160 --> 01:08:53,320
Speaker 1: This might go down as the longest show ever in

1301
01:08:53,400 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 1: BP history, but sometimes that's what the news calls for. Obviously,

1302
01:08:57,200 --> 01:08:59,080
Speaker 1: we'll all be on deck Friday show, and we're watching

1303
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:01,640
Speaker 1: for any potential ground invasion over the weekend, so make

1304
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:03,840
Speaker 1: sure that you stay tuned. Thank you everybody's watches, and

1305
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:04,599
Speaker 1: we'll see you all later