Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa brown Witz Jaily. We bring
Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and
Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. We
Speaker 1: get lucky here are booking team is really wonderful at
Speaker 1: piecing together the people, the voices, the conversation with the
Speaker 1: news flow. Let us move from TARJ with terrific earnings
Speaker 1: coming out. One of the great joys of T g
Speaker 1: T folks is they come out with just very crystal
Speaker 1: career headlines of their financial performance and as we well know,
Speaker 1: retail doing better than good target with a sustained thirty
Speaker 1: percent margin. They say that this year's operating margin well
Speaker 1: above two thousand, which twenty as well. We'll go into
Speaker 1: that as as we go along. So much of this
Speaker 1: is the state of the American economy. A great student
Speaker 1: of this is a guy who I started reading Lehman
Speaker 1: Brothers years ago. He's one of those people that writes
Speaker 1: a three page economic report. You hate him because you
Speaker 1: actually have to read the thing. Joseph Lavorgnia joins us
Speaker 1: right now in the Texas after his public service to
Speaker 1: President Trump and the nation. Joe, wonderful to have you on.
Speaker 1: The great conundrum we have each day is the legs
Speaker 1: of the X axis. We've got a boom economy. How
Speaker 1: long does the boom last? Thank you Tom for having
Speaker 1: me on. Everybody the boom lasts for a while. I mean,
Speaker 1: the household looks excellent. You've got very high savings RAITs,
Speaker 1: you've got very hell very high wealth positions, the labor
Speaker 1: markets improving. I mean, there's some frictions certainly in the economy, Tom,
Speaker 1: but the household looks great. I do worry that after
Speaker 1: one boom, we're gonna slow, perhaps more than people expect
Speaker 1: next year. But but a recession is still many years.
Speaker 1: And what a when you get these recoveries. I know
Speaker 1: it was a pandemic led down term, but when you
Speaker 1: get these recoveries and now we're going to enter expansion
Speaker 1: mode in the second quarter with a big GP number.
Speaker 1: They're not measured in terms of months, they're measuring in
Speaker 1: terms of years, So it's going to last. Joe, I
Speaker 1: want to take your income statement analysis and the American economy.
Speaker 1: I want to fold it over to your former shop.
Speaker 1: George Saravelos holding holding court with Deutsche Bank in London,
Speaker 1: and he notes the exterior dynamics, the trade deficit, the
Speaker 1: flow of funds within our financial system, and the foreign
Speaker 1: owners of our bomb our bonds. Rather, do we risk
Speaker 1: instabilities as we come out of this boom economy when
Speaker 1: we look at the trade deficit or the current account
Speaker 1: surplus deficit, I'm more I'm more work right now the
Speaker 1: current account surplus, current acount deficit tom right now it's
Speaker 1: about three and a half percent's on its way to four.
Speaker 1: It was over six percent back in the mid two thousand's.
Speaker 1: I'm more concerned, less about trade, but more about fiscal side,
Speaker 1: where we're going to run a deficit this year of
Speaker 1: about six a GDP, and if we get this four
Speaker 1: trillion extra and spending, we could see deficits in the
Speaker 1: ten to twelve percent range for quite some time. So
Speaker 1: I'm more worried about the federal spending much less so
Speaker 1: on the on On the international side, remember, imports are
Speaker 1: growing very strongly, are growing about but that's because the
Speaker 1: demand is so strong. As per targets results the consumers robust,
Speaker 1: So worry more about the government's fiscal commitments much less
Speaker 1: so about the international side. What do you think needs
Speaker 1: to adjust yields or foreign exchange. It will come through
Speaker 1: the foreign exchange market, because the FED is likely to
Speaker 1: depress yields of picture strakes where to rise, So that
Speaker 1: would be a risk, is that the dollar does soften
Speaker 1: Right now though the dollar, as you were saying earlier,
Speaker 1: just regarding the euro, the broad trade weighted dollar is
Speaker 1: about flat on the year. It's down from where it
Speaker 1: was last year, but that got a big surge because
Speaker 1: of the pandemic in the flight to quality. That's what
Speaker 1: we saw during the Great Financial Crisis. But long term,
Speaker 1: the dollars still look stable. If the dollar was to
Speaker 1: collapse or plunge, that's a different story. But I don't
Speaker 1: see that right now in the cars that is, that's
Speaker 1: a risk, but I'd say it's a low probability. It's
Speaker 1: it's a risk though a fact that Joe, that you
Speaker 1: think maybe we're not considering enough, and that's not that
Speaker 1: the dollar collapses. I'm not in that camp, and I'm
Speaker 1: not advocating even questioning that right now. I just wanted
Speaker 1: to going forward from here we have shifted from a
Speaker 1: dynamic whether the US has been importing disinflation, particularly from China,
Speaker 1: and that seems to be changing. Jug Well, here's the
Speaker 1: thing though, Jonathan. If you look at the goods sector
Speaker 1: of the economy, it's booming. It's a big kink if
Speaker 1: you look at the growth. If you look at the
Speaker 1: dollar level, we're about I think fifteen percent above trend
Speaker 1: ten percent above trends, huge number where we've blagged asign
Speaker 1: the services side, So it doesn't surprise me that the
Speaker 1: imports are strong. We've depleted inventories, so manufacturing production is big.
Speaker 1: We're importing all sorts of goods and materials, which is
Speaker 1: why commodity prices are booming. As the economy reopens and
Speaker 1: service spending comes back, you're gonna see those pressures on
Speaker 1: goods moderate, especially as factories get fully back up to speed.
Speaker 1: So what I see on the commodity pricing side is
Speaker 1: really this is a is a post pandemic price level adjustment,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna see this inflation on the good side dissipate.
Speaker 1: So I I would still argue where the disinflationary environment
Speaker 1: not an inflationary environment. Can you elaborate on that, Joe,
Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to wages, the idea that we're
Speaker 1: actually starting to see wage pressures on the lowest end
Speaker 1: to even the higher end of the income spector. Sure
Speaker 1: the wage side, we are seeing lower and middle income
Speaker 1: wages rise. We still have under President Trump, actually right
Speaker 1: before the pandemic, at very strong wage growth. But broadly speaking,
Speaker 1: I don't see much wage pressure. For example, if I
Speaker 1: look at the employment across the index, I see that
Speaker 1: we're growing only around three percent. We're actually trend through
Speaker 1: last year it actually slowed. If I look at the
Speaker 1: recent trends and average generally earnings, I don't see much
Speaker 1: acceleration there, and unit labor us are still growing under
Speaker 1: two percent. So there are some anecdotes and certain industries
Speaker 1: facing shortages. People certainly are having to pay up for labor.
Speaker 1: McDonald's I think there was one company that comes to mind,
Speaker 1: But royally speaking, I don't see much much wage pressure.
Speaker 1: And I think as an unemployment benefits expire in September,
Speaker 1: you're going to see more people come back to work.
Speaker 1: In factor, about twenty one states now that are limiting
Speaker 1: federal unemployment benefits, so to the extent that that was
Speaker 1: the fact that perhaps hurting labor supply, you're gonna stet
Speaker 1: labor supply come back in, and you're gonna see wage
Speaker 1: pressures moderate. So this raises a question for the Federal
Speaker 1: Reserve and the actions that they should be taking right now.
Speaker 1: A lot of people have been critical, including Robert Kaplan
Speaker 1: of the Dallas Fed, saying that the Fed should act
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later to counteract froth in markets. You
Speaker 1: seem to be saying that they're doing the right thing,
Speaker 1: that they're holding tight, and that they should because these
Speaker 1: are transitory influence. What would you have to see to
Speaker 1: change your mind? So you would need to see two things.
Speaker 1: You need see that wage pressure really start to sell
Speaker 1: rate some real cost pusher or demand poll wage inflation.
Speaker 1: I don't see that, but that's number one. Number two,
Speaker 1: you have to see inflation expectations, market expectations and consumer
Speaker 1: measures of inflation expectations really turn up. On the market side,
Speaker 1: they have. They're at about two and a half percent.
Speaker 1: If you look at five year five your phone slop rates,
Speaker 1: but still that's not with energy prices. Up to two
Speaker 1: and a half percent inflation rate after a long period
Speaker 1: of undershooting is not very much. So you need wages,
Speaker 1: you need inflation expectations. That's what I need to say, Joe.
Speaker 1: Your career is a career of economic optimism. There's always
Speaker 1: a timeline, not of morning in America, but just a
Speaker 1: real clear right optimism on the US economy. Do we
Speaker 1: massively misjudge now the X axis? Are we just flying
Speaker 1: blind on the durability or duration of this fiscal and
Speaker 1: monetary stimulus that we have where we grossly misjudge the
Speaker 1: positive benefits? Uh? Potentially, yes, Tom, we do. I am
Speaker 1: an optimist. The Cares Act, that the Second Care's Act
Speaker 1: was a two point three trillion dollar package, was unanimous.
Speaker 1: There believe there was one person in Congress that voted
Speaker 1: against it. The Fed move with incredible lacrty. The economy
Speaker 1: is recovering clearly as you know where Washington is debating
Speaker 1: unprecedented fiscal stimulus or package spending initiatives U, and monetary
Speaker 1: policy has been very easy. So yes, there is this
Speaker 1: possibility U that we are creating some great risks for
Speaker 1: better for worse. We are we are testing modern monetary
Speaker 1: theory in real time, So yes, there is a risk. However,
Speaker 1: I will say that the dynamism of the US economy.
Speaker 1: It's entrepreneurial spirit. Uh. If you look at the business
Speaker 1: dynamic data yes last year from the Census Bureau. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of incredible things that this economy does.
Speaker 1: So I'm still an optimist, but certainly there are risks.
Speaker 1: No question. Hey, judge, it's gonna catch you up. It's
Speaker 1: gonna see it come back. Saying Jennivoni that it takes
Speaker 1: as seek the chief economists of the amount US good
Speaker 1: news on retail. Stephanie Whiston nailed it at Jeffrey. She
Speaker 1: joins us this morning where she's recalibrated on comp sales
Speaker 1: and stuff. Stephanie, I want to get out on the
Speaker 1: X axis too into the holiday season. Do you have
Speaker 1: any vision, any idea, any new information on where the
Speaker 1: retail juggernaut will be past August, past October. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: a great question. I think. You know, we're seeing evidence
Speaker 1: that the consumer is interested in re engaging with retail.
Speaker 1: Actually across the board, Walmart Home Depot made these target
Speaker 1: loads all beat handily and all signaling that compliment um
Speaker 1: has persisted. In Q two as we look to the
Speaker 1: back half, we're looking at a few key indicators. The
Speaker 1: first is back to school. That will be the next
Speaker 1: kind of signal of confidence that we're back into a
Speaker 1: cycle of normal. We didn't really have a back to
Speaker 1: school season last year. It was a very unusual back
Speaker 1: to school period. So this year we're looking for those
Speaker 1: signs that not only the youth are returning to the
Speaker 1: malls into apparel retail, but are really going through the
Speaker 1: motions of a back to school purchasing cycle. We're also
Speaker 1: keeping an eye on what's happening in fashion. We've been
Speaker 1: in a bit of a fashion ruts for a number
Speaker 1: of years. We've been living in leggings and fitness apparel,
Speaker 1: and we're now seeing indications that she's exploring fashion again,
Speaker 1: that we might be seeing the early signs of a
Speaker 1: fashion cycle. And then lastly, I think we're just looking
Speaker 1: at the strength and home. The home improvement has been
Speaker 1: so strong over the course of the last twelve to
Speaker 1: eighteen months, and home ownership is rising, So how durable
Speaker 1: is some of the investment in the home, and do
Speaker 1: we move from what we call hard home into stockholm
Speaker 1: as we get into the back half of the year
Speaker 1: as well, So all of those things are top of mind.
Speaker 1: For us looking at the consumer and how she is
Speaker 1: behaving and looking where she's prioritizing her dollars. Effany, can
Speaker 1: you give us a sense of whether some of these
Speaker 1: companies are gaining market share or whether they're just exploiting
Speaker 1: the reality of an incredible savings glut in American households
Speaker 1: from pandemic checks and other aspects and the fact I
Speaker 1: haven't got out to spend. I mean, can you give
Speaker 1: us a sense of which will be the winners out
Speaker 1: of this pandemic spending boom. Yeah, it's a really interesting
Speaker 1: question because I think there's there are two classes. There
Speaker 1: are going to be the survivors, those that make it
Speaker 1: through clearly, there are some that aren't going to make
Speaker 1: it through, and then there are these winners. And I
Speaker 1: think that the upper class of winners really has three
Speaker 1: basic characteristics. Number One, they've used the pandemic to accelerate
Speaker 1: their omni channel initiatives. They were already underway. They pressed
Speaker 1: the gas pedal down and they effectively trained the consumer
Speaker 1: to adopt some of these click and collect curbside pickup models,
Speaker 1: which is actually not beneficial to margins. The second characteristic
Speaker 1: is that they upgraded their merchandise assortments. So they looked
Speaker 1: at the categories where they have clear, definitive advantages and
Speaker 1: they pressed hard into those categories. And then third, and
Speaker 1: I think this is probably the one that's going to
Speaker 1: be the most curious to keep an eye on, is
Speaker 1: how they are engaging with their consumer. How are they
Speaker 1: going beyond this the transaction, collecting data, personalizing the experience,
Speaker 1: customizing it because we do know that it's come out
Speaker 1: of this pandemic, there is a cohort of shoppers that
Speaker 1: wants to go back into stores, that wants to feel
Speaker 1: welcomed and that the shopping experience is at an elevated level.
Speaker 1: Otherwise it's just easier to order online. So I think
Speaker 1: we're looking for those companies that have also spent time
Speaker 1: thinking about their store experience just as much as their
Speaker 1: digital experience. Raw materials, labor costs, solely the above has
Speaker 1: been a big concernfinitely. Just finally, just to come back
Speaker 1: to you and get a final comment on the price
Speaker 1: pressure that's coming through for some of these companies. What
Speaker 1: does that look like for the retailers. Every single company
Speaker 1: has talked about rising wages of costs, particularly wage in
Speaker 1: place and but also has signaled that there is some
Speaker 1: product price in place and that's likely to come through.
Speaker 1: So we're also monitoring the cp I as we get
Speaker 1: through the middle part of this year and into the
Speaker 1: back calf I do think we're going to see a
Speaker 1: step function in consumer pricing. Stephaniely gotta leave it there,
Speaker 1: Thank you, come back soon. Great cool on Macy's Ye today,
Speaker 1: what a rip that's been. Stephanie whistick there the Jeffreys
Speaker 1: equity analyst. You know there's some there's some interesting dynamics
Speaker 1: here on the inflation fears that are out there. We're
Speaker 1: gonna do that. John's gonna lead that off. But I
Speaker 1: to greet Michael Schoel and say good morning with market
Speaker 1: Field Asset Management. And Michael, we've had more emails on
Speaker 1: your love of new Tela than anything else. And we
Speaker 1: had an America in the sixties. In the sixties, Michael,
Speaker 1: we obtained and Sanca. We're in Europe, they had new
Speaker 1: Tela and that speaks volumes about the Transatlantic divide that's
Speaker 1: there at each and every moment. Well, you know, I
Speaker 1: grew up in England as a kid with Lyles Golden Suit,
Speaker 1: which I continue to get to my children today. We
Speaker 1: didn't have enough teller in England. I mean, John, you
Speaker 1: know they didn't have to tell in England. At the
Speaker 1: same time, John Ferroll that Transatlantic dividers there is measured
Speaker 1: by tang and I had golden syrup to Michael, I'm
Speaker 1: surprised you're giving that to your kids, though. I think
Speaker 1: we should probably move on and talk about this market.
Speaker 1: What I give my kids with breakfast, carry on. Tell
Speaker 1: what you give them goes in the taler, the stuff
Speaker 1: that goes the waffle things that go in the toaster,
Speaker 1: and maybe put some the tanner on wif things. John,
Speaker 1: those waffles, those widerful things are egges, okay, I said,
Speaker 1: And then I was called the eggoes the waffle things,
Speaker 1: just in case anyone in your might think they were
Speaker 1: actually eggs. How about those markets? Markets were defensive this morning, Michael, Michael,
Speaker 1: just quickly your take on the price action this morning.
Speaker 1: You'll tire everything else, A lower crude euro equities you'll
Speaker 1: take this morning, please. I think we're in a bit
Speaker 1: of a corrector phase. I mean, it's obviously centered around
Speaker 1: you know that the sort of you know what we
Speaker 1: call hope, which stands for highly optimistic projected earnings, that
Speaker 1: sort of part of technology that everybody's sort of been
Speaker 1: banking on so so furiously. And I think that that
Speaker 1: really is in what I would call a major correction
Speaker 1: at this point. And I think the overall market, you know,
Speaker 1: is responding to that. And I think this is typical
Speaker 1: in a in a major transition of leadership, you know,
Speaker 1: which is I think, away from technology and towards cechnicality.
Speaker 1: So you know, we'll have periods when everything kind of
Speaker 1: goes up and periods when tech and the sort of
Speaker 1: hope stuff leads us lower. You know, we're in the
Speaker 1: latter right now. Why do you think that transition though, persists, Michael,
Speaker 1: that transition from leadership from the growth names big tech
Speaker 1: towards the most cyclical part of this market, you know,
Speaker 1: because I think the global economy post pandemic is radically
Speaker 1: different to the global economy pre pandemic. And some of
Speaker 1: that is the director fact effect of the disease um
Speaker 1: and some of it is the radical change in in
Speaker 1: fiscal and monetary policy global I mean, we're really not
Speaker 1: looking at the same set of circumstances in May one,
Speaker 1: but we were in January January, and I think the
Speaker 1: market is slowly starting, you know, to look about so
Speaker 1: I mean, one example of how things have changed is,
Speaker 1: you know, we have CPI over four percent right now.
Speaker 1: If you look about another way, you know, any price
Speaker 1: earnings above twenty five means that the earnings yield of
Speaker 1: that company is no longer keeping up with inflation, you know,
Speaker 1: tree pandemic. You know, with cp I in in the
Speaker 1: mid ones um, everything in the SMP had had a
Speaker 1: comfortable real earnings yield. So we have a very different
Speaker 1: set of both market and monetary circumstances and economics circumstances
Speaker 1: right now. When we talk about the market influences, I
Speaker 1: want to talk about the risk that has been introduced
Speaker 1: by bitcoin. Yes, we do have Bitcoin down significantly, and
Speaker 1: people are talking about how that's indicative of a risk
Speaker 1: off move. And yet I've been looking this morning at PayPal, MasterCard,
Speaker 1: Tesla Square, some pretty big companies that have significant bitcoin exposure,
Speaker 1: and I'm wondering, at what point does a real draw
Speaker 1: down and bitcoin becomes something more systemic that a portfolio
Speaker 1: manager invested in U S equities has to pay attention to.
Speaker 1: You know, there is some crossover. I mean you know,
Speaker 1: three years ago when bit kind blew up, it really
Speaker 1: didn't matter. But right now there is some real institutional
Speaker 1: money and some real wealth management money in in bitcoin,
Speaker 1: and of course there's a significant amount of market cap.
Speaker 1: As I said, I I think the Hope trade, you
Speaker 1: know it, which covers things like Tesla, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: is already in a in a a in a significant
Speaker 1: correction um and I think these stocks still have much
Speaker 1: further to fall over over a period of time. And
Speaker 1: I think we you know, you know, it does have
Speaker 1: the potential to have sort of waves of panic attached,
Speaker 1: you know, waves of panic attached to it, But I
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna undermine the cyclical forces which are
Speaker 1: also you know, which are also in place at this
Speaker 1: point in you know, at this point in time. So
Speaker 1: I look ahead several months, I think there's quite a
Speaker 1: lot of cyclical equities in the US and global indexes
Speaker 1: like Australia and the UK which are very cycnically focused,
Speaker 1: which I think can be significantly higher, and there's scope
Speaker 1: for significantly lower places and a lot of the high
Speaker 1: multiple portions of the US and global equity market. What
Speaker 1: is the profile of a panic in markets right now
Speaker 1: at a time when the Fed is keeping policies very
Speaker 1: easy and at a time of such incredible growth and earnings, well,
Speaker 1: you know, it's a it's a significant draw down in
Speaker 1: you know, in in prices, and you know it has
Speaker 1: been a fairly severe correction so far in these high
Speaker 1: multiple names. You know, the good thing is you're losing
Speaker 1: money you only just made so you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of this stuff is still higher than it was towards
Speaker 1: the end of the fourth quarter twenty but the declines
Speaker 1: from one high is significant. But there's a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff down plus um in a couple of months, which
Speaker 1: which by any definition is is is a severe correction.
Speaker 1: Now it's too early to say what what we end
Speaker 1: of today looks like, but you know, the sup you
Speaker 1: re sponding by going down one and a half two percent,
Speaker 1: there's a degree of panick in the market at that point. Michael,
Speaker 1: what's the opportunity in equities when you look at you know,
Speaker 1: sectors and the different factors that are out there, between
Speaker 1: small cap, MidCap international and a beleaguered e M. Where's
Speaker 1: the opportunity, As I said, I think in the cynical parts.
Speaker 1: And you know e M is a good example, I
Speaker 1: don't like the MSc I Emerging market indexes a place
Speaker 1: to put money. But the reason is is because it's
Speaker 1: now dominated by Asian technology companies, which is not really
Speaker 1: what I want to own right now, but that some
Speaker 1: of the cyclical emerging market indexes still look just fine.
Speaker 1: Becauzil looks cheap, Mexico looks fine, Russia looks fine. They
Speaker 1: just don't have a lot of market cap. As far
Speaker 1: as the overall index is concerned. You could say the
Speaker 1: same about the S and P. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: the best benchmark to be in, but the cyclical portions
Speaker 1: of it energy, materials, some of the financials, you know,
Speaker 1: I think looked just fine and and and Globally, I
Speaker 1: think the two developed markets would really stand out are
Speaker 1: the UK and Australia simply because of the makeup of
Speaker 1: their indexes. You know, the UK gives you a lot
Speaker 1: of materials and a lot of energy. Australia gives you
Speaker 1: a lot of financials and a lot of materials. And
Speaker 1: I think the underlying efex is also going to battle.
Speaker 1: You know, the Aussie dollar looks very very cheap versus
Speaker 1: global commodity devices, and sterling is just coming out of
Speaker 1: its exit funk. I mean, Sterling is exactly where it
Speaker 1: was when the exit vote went the long way for
Speaker 1: most people in Jueen two thousand and sixtifty six. Michael,
Speaker 1: Thank you, sir Michael Shell, Market Ferness and Management c
Speaker 1: e O. I think most Asians have this sense of otherness,
Speaker 1: and of course I felt that especially here on the
Speaker 1: mainland US. I mean I've had people Americans come up
Speaker 1: to me and say things to me like who are
Speaker 1: you really from, even while I was wearing our nation's
Speaker 1: uniform with American flag on my shoulder and US Army
Speaker 1: on my chest over my heart. Lieutenant Colonel from Illinois.
Speaker 1: An important interview David ruben Stein with another wonderful and
Speaker 1: important peer to peer conversation. Look for that at nine
Speaker 1: pm tonight and Mr Rubinstein joins us right now on
Speaker 1: Tammy Duckworth. She is a politician, but far far more
Speaker 1: than that. It is a long, it's exceptional story, David
Speaker 1: Rubinstein from the Singapore School, the uh the Bangkok School.
Speaker 1: A father that moved around and moved around and moved around,
Speaker 1: and really there were some tough times to her war duty.
Speaker 1: What did she say to you about the war duty
Speaker 1: and where she is now in two thousand twenty one, Well,
Speaker 1: of course, now a United States Senator. She was considered
Speaker 1: by President Biden to be his vice presidential choice, and
Speaker 1: she came from very far away from that kind of life.
Speaker 1: She grew up with a fair amount of poverty in Thailand,
Speaker 1: in Hawaii, and then ultimately decided to become a helicopter
Speaker 1: pilot and for the Illinois National Guard. She went over
Speaker 1: to Iraq and tragically she lost her legs in a
Speaker 1: helicopter um accident and as a result she had to
Speaker 1: rebuild her life. But since that time, she was elected
Speaker 1: to Congress, served in the Obama administration, and has mothered
Speaker 1: two children. David, the immediate point is Asia Americans and
Speaker 1: how they relate to the rest of this country. She
Speaker 1: has a unique and important perspective. What did she say
Speaker 1: about anti Asian comments, Well, she thinks that despite the
Speaker 1: fact that she's the United States Center and gave a
Speaker 1: large part of her body to the United States government
Speaker 1: and effect through the tragic accident that occurred while she
Speaker 1: was fighting on our behalf, um, she's still discriminated against. Clearly,
Speaker 1: she's in a different position than she was when she
Speaker 1: was younger, but she still thinks that discrimination against Asian
Speaker 1: Americans is fairly evident across the country and getting worse,
Speaker 1: and she's fighting trying to fight it. You know, one
Speaker 1: thing that's so great about your interviews is you always
Speaker 1: get to the human side of people who are in
Speaker 1: places of high power. And I'm wondering if you can
Speaker 1: give a sense of how some of these images of
Speaker 1: some of these consequences Asian American discrimination and some of
Speaker 1: the social changes that have come from the pandemic have
Speaker 1: colored her views when it comes to pushing certain parts
Speaker 1: of the Biden administration's agenda. There's no doubt that the
Speaker 1: recent pandemic has focused more attentional on Asians. Many people
Speaker 1: uh in the United States think that everybody from Asia
Speaker 1: is from China and effect and there. While there may
Speaker 1: be upset about China, they take it out against all Asians,
Speaker 1: and they shouldn't be taken out against anybody, really, because
Speaker 1: nobody in the United States really had anything to do
Speaker 1: with that who is an Asian American or Asian. But anyway,
Speaker 1: that's the way the life has involved. Sadly, I do
Speaker 1: think that she is determined to do more about it.
Speaker 1: And trying to do what she can as the United
Speaker 1: States Center. But the most important thing is and to
Speaker 1: me that for all the things that she's had to
Speaker 1: go through, she doesn't seem to have any bitterness. You know,
Speaker 1: she lost her legs in an accident where she didn't
Speaker 1: have to go on that mission, She didn't have to
Speaker 1: go to Iraq. She volunteered. She didn't have to go
Speaker 1: on that mission that where the helicopter crash. She volunteered,
Speaker 1: and she basically put her life back together again. She
Speaker 1: and her husband had two children. Subsequent to that, she
Speaker 1: got elected to Congress, and she's very relatively cheerful. I
Speaker 1: don't see how anybody can be that cheerful given what
Speaker 1: she's been through. But she doesn't really, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: have a bitterness that I would would have thought she
Speaker 1: would have had. It's an compelling story. Yeah, it definitely is.
Speaker 1: The other thing that she has happiness, even if she
Speaker 1: juggles a pretty big workload and a pretty big homeload.
Speaker 1: And she talked a little bit about how it is
Speaker 1: challenging UH to go back and forth within both of
Speaker 1: those and it does speak to the Biden Administration's plan
Speaker 1: for child tax credits. And for other areas to help families.
Speaker 1: Can you give us a sense of how much mainstream
Speaker 1: support she sees this having versus some of the pushback
Speaker 1: where people are saying, stop trying to shoehorn in certain
Speaker 1: agendas into this broader issue that we have right now
Speaker 1: fighting and emerging from the pandemic. Well, there's no doubt
Speaker 1: that the pandemic has been the main focus of members
Speaker 1: of Congress for a while. But I think now people
Speaker 1: are beginning to look at other issues, and clearly the
Speaker 1: tax issues and the infrastructure issues of things she's worried
Speaker 1: about and working on. But I think she has a
Speaker 1: unique voice. Um, she's one of the few people have
Speaker 1: served in Congress with these kind of tragic accidents that
Speaker 1: she's gone through. And she's living in full life now.
Speaker 1: She's got two young children, she's married, Um, she's got
Speaker 1: responsibilities back in Illinois. She juggles all that and does
Speaker 1: it pretty well, I would say. And it's really an
Speaker 1: inspirational story about how somebody can come from very very
Speaker 1: modest circumstances, rise up in our country, have great sacrifices
Speaker 1: to the country, and not be bitter about what happened
Speaker 1: to her And now she's serving the country. So it's
Speaker 1: a great human dimension story, and she wrote a great
Speaker 1: book about it, which I talked about in the In
Speaker 1: the interview, David, one phone question, what does she say
Speaker 1: about the future of her Democratic Party? When you're from Illinois,
Speaker 1: it's a certain democratic politics. What did she say nationally
Speaker 1: about the Democrats to two thousand twenty two? We didn't
Speaker 1: really get into that. My guess is that she's from
Speaker 1: a state that's pretty democratic, and I think she reflects
Speaker 1: that the mainstream of that democratic thought. But I think
Speaker 1: she feels that better um bipartisan cooperation in Congress will
Speaker 1: be a good thing. She's trying to bring that about,
Speaker 1: but it's not easy to do. She is working across
Speaker 1: the aisles and certain things he cares about, and I
Speaker 1: do think she's a great symbol for that kind of cooperation. David,
Speaker 1: Thank you for the time. David Rubinstein and Carlisle Group
Speaker 1: Quille founder and of course the interview with Mr Rubinstein,
Speaker 1: the Senator from Illinois, Tammy Duckworth, David Rubinstein, Peer to
Speaker 1: peer Conversations. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.
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