1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa brown Witz Jaily. We bring 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. We 6 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: get lucky here are booking team is really wonderful at 7 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: piecing together the people, the voices, the conversation with the 8 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,559 Speaker 1: news flow. Let us move from TARJ with terrific earnings 9 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: coming out. One of the great joys of T g 10 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: T folks is they come out with just very crystal 11 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: career headlines of their financial performance and as we well know, 12 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: retail doing better than good target with a sustained thirty 13 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: percent margin. They say that this year's operating margin well 14 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: above two thousand, which twenty as well. We'll go into 15 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: that as as we go along. So much of this 16 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: is the state of the American economy. A great student 17 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: of this is a guy who I started reading Lehman 18 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: Brothers years ago. He's one of those people that writes 19 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: a three page economic report. You hate him because you 20 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: actually have to read the thing. Joseph Lavorgnia joins us 21 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: right now in the Texas after his public service to 22 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: President Trump and the nation. Joe, wonderful to have you on. 23 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 1: The great conundrum we have each day is the legs 24 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: of the X axis. We've got a boom economy. How 25 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: long does the boom last? Thank you Tom for having 26 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 1: me on. Everybody the boom lasts for a while. I mean, 27 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: the household looks excellent. You've got very high savings RAITs, 28 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,919 Speaker 1: you've got very hell very high wealth positions, the labor 29 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 1: markets improving. I mean, there's some frictions certainly in the economy, Tom, 30 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: but the household looks great. I do worry that after 31 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: one boom, we're gonna slow, perhaps more than people expect 32 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: next year. But but a recession is still many years. 33 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: And what a when you get these recoveries. I know 34 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: it was a pandemic led down term, but when you 35 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: get these recoveries and now we're going to enter expansion 36 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: mode in the second quarter with a big GP number. 37 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: They're not measured in terms of months, they're measuring in 38 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: terms of years, So it's going to last. Joe, I 39 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: want to take your income statement analysis and the American economy. 40 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: I want to fold it over to your former shop. 41 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 1: George Saravelos holding holding court with Deutsche Bank in London, 42 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: and he notes the exterior dynamics, the trade deficit, the 43 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: flow of funds within our financial system, and the foreign 44 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: owners of our bomb our bonds. Rather, do we risk 45 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: instabilities as we come out of this boom economy when 46 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: we look at the trade deficit or the current account 47 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: surplus deficit, I'm more I'm more work right now the 48 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: current account surplus, current acount deficit tom right now it's 49 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: about three and a half percent's on its way to four. 50 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 1: It was over six percent back in the mid two thousand's. 51 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: I'm more concerned, less about trade, but more about fiscal side, 52 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: where we're going to run a deficit this year of 53 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: about six a GDP, and if we get this four 54 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: trillion extra and spending, we could see deficits in the 55 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: ten to twelve percent range for quite some time. So 56 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: I'm more worried about the federal spending much less so 57 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: on the on On the international side, remember, imports are 58 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: growing very strongly, are growing about but that's because the 59 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: demand is so strong. As per targets results the consumers robust, 60 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: So worry more about the government's fiscal commitments much less 61 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: so about the international side. What do you think needs 62 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: to adjust yields or foreign exchange. It will come through 63 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: the foreign exchange market, because the FED is likely to 64 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: depress yields of picture strakes where to rise, So that 65 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: would be a risk, is that the dollar does soften 66 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: Right now though the dollar, as you were saying earlier, 67 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: just regarding the euro, the broad trade weighted dollar is 68 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: about flat on the year. It's down from where it 69 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: was last year, but that got a big surge because 70 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: of the pandemic in the flight to quality. That's what 71 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: we saw during the Great Financial Crisis. But long term, 72 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: the dollars still look stable. If the dollar was to 73 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: collapse or plunge, that's a different story. But I don't 74 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: see that right now in the cars that is, that's 75 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: a risk, but I'd say it's a low probability. It's 76 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 1: it's a risk though a fact that Joe, that you 77 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 1: think maybe we're not considering enough, and that's not that 78 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 1: the dollar collapses. I'm not in that camp, and I'm 79 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 1: not advocating even questioning that right now. I just wanted 80 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: to going forward from here we have shifted from a 81 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: dynamic whether the US has been importing disinflation, particularly from China, 82 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: and that seems to be changing. Jug Well, here's the 83 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: thing though, Jonathan. If you look at the goods sector 84 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: of the economy, it's booming. It's a big kink if 85 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: you look at the growth. If you look at the 86 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 1: dollar level, we're about I think fifteen percent above trend 87 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: ten percent above trends, huge number where we've blagged asign 88 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: the services side, So it doesn't surprise me that the 89 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 1: imports are strong. We've depleted inventories, so manufacturing production is big. 90 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: We're importing all sorts of goods and materials, which is 91 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: why commodity prices are booming. As the economy reopens and 92 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: service spending comes back, you're gonna see those pressures on 93 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: goods moderate, especially as factories get fully back up to speed. 94 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: So what I see on the commodity pricing side is 95 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: really this is a is a post pandemic price level adjustment, 96 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 1: and we're gonna see this inflation on the good side dissipate. 97 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: So I I would still argue where the disinflationary environment 98 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: not an inflationary environment. Can you elaborate on that, Joe, 99 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to wages, the idea that we're 100 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: actually starting to see wage pressures on the lowest end 101 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 1: to even the higher end of the income spector. Sure 102 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 1: the wage side, we are seeing lower and middle income 103 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: wages rise. We still have under President Trump, actually right 104 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: before the pandemic, at very strong wage growth. But broadly speaking, 105 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: I don't see much wage pressure. For example, if I 106 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: look at the employment across the index, I see that 107 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: we're growing only around three percent. We're actually trend through 108 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: last year it actually slowed. If I look at the 109 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: recent trends and average generally earnings, I don't see much 110 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: acceleration there, and unit labor us are still growing under 111 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: two percent. So there are some anecdotes and certain industries 112 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 1: facing shortages. People certainly are having to pay up for labor. 113 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: McDonald's I think there was one company that comes to mind, 114 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: But royally speaking, I don't see much much wage pressure. 115 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: And I think as an unemployment benefits expire in September, 116 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: you're going to see more people come back to work. 117 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: In factor, about twenty one states now that are limiting 118 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: federal unemployment benefits, so to the extent that that was 119 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: the fact that perhaps hurting labor supply, you're gonna stet 120 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: labor supply come back in, and you're gonna see wage 121 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: pressures moderate. So this raises a question for the Federal 122 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: Reserve and the actions that they should be taking right now. 123 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: A lot of people have been critical, including Robert Kaplan 124 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: of the Dallas Fed, saying that the Fed should act 125 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 1: sooner rather than later to counteract froth in markets. You 126 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 1: seem to be saying that they're doing the right thing, 127 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: that they're holding tight, and that they should because these 128 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: are transitory influence. What would you have to see to 129 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 1: change your mind? So you would need to see two things. 130 00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: You need see that wage pressure really start to sell 131 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,799 Speaker 1: rate some real cost pusher or demand poll wage inflation. 132 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: I don't see that, but that's number one. Number two, 133 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: you have to see inflation expectations, market expectations and consumer 134 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: measures of inflation expectations really turn up. On the market side, 135 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: they have. They're at about two and a half percent. 136 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: If you look at five year five your phone slop rates, 137 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: but still that's not with energy prices. Up to two 138 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: and a half percent inflation rate after a long period 139 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: of undershooting is not very much. So you need wages, 140 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: you need inflation expectations. That's what I need to say, Joe. 141 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: Your career is a career of economic optimism. There's always 142 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 1: a timeline, not of morning in America, but just a 143 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: real clear right optimism on the US economy. Do we 144 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: massively misjudge now the X axis? Are we just flying 145 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: blind on the durability or duration of this fiscal and 146 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: monetary stimulus that we have where we grossly misjudge the 147 00:07:55,960 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: positive benefits? Uh? Potentially, yes, Tom, we do. I am 148 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: an optimist. The Cares Act, that the Second Care's Act 149 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: was a two point three trillion dollar package, was unanimous. 150 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: There believe there was one person in Congress that voted 151 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: against it. The Fed move with incredible lacrty. The economy 152 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: is recovering clearly as you know where Washington is debating 153 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: unprecedented fiscal stimulus or package spending initiatives U, and monetary 154 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: policy has been very easy. So yes, there is this 155 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 1: possibility U that we are creating some great risks for 156 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: better for worse. We are we are testing modern monetary 157 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: theory in real time, So yes, there is a risk. However, 158 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: I will say that the dynamism of the US economy. 159 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: It's entrepreneurial spirit. Uh. If you look at the business 160 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: dynamic data yes last year from the Census Bureau. I mean, 161 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: there's a lot of incredible things that this economy does. 162 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: So I'm still an optimist, but certainly there are risks. 163 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: No question. Hey, judge, it's gonna catch you up. It's 164 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: gonna see it come back. Saying Jennivoni that it takes 165 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: as seek the chief economists of the amount US good 166 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: news on retail. Stephanie Whiston nailed it at Jeffrey. She 167 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: joins us this morning where she's recalibrated on comp sales 168 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: and stuff. Stephanie, I want to get out on the 169 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 1: X axis too into the holiday season. Do you have 170 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: any vision, any idea, any new information on where the 171 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: retail juggernaut will be past August, past October. Yeah, that's 172 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: a great question. I think. You know, we're seeing evidence 173 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: that the consumer is interested in re engaging with retail. 174 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: Actually across the board, Walmart Home Depot made these target 175 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 1: loads all beat handily and all signaling that compliment um 176 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: has persisted. In Q two as we look to the 177 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: back half, we're looking at a few key indicators. The 178 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: first is back to school. That will be the next 179 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: kind of signal of confidence that we're back into a 180 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: cycle of normal. We didn't really have a back to 181 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: school season last year. It was a very unusual back 182 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: to school period. So this year we're looking for those 183 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: signs that not only the youth are returning to the 184 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: malls into apparel retail, but are really going through the 185 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 1: motions of a back to school purchasing cycle. We're also 186 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: keeping an eye on what's happening in fashion. We've been 187 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: in a bit of a fashion ruts for a number 188 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: of years. We've been living in leggings and fitness apparel, 189 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: and we're now seeing indications that she's exploring fashion again, 190 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: that we might be seeing the early signs of a 191 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: fashion cycle. And then lastly, I think we're just looking 192 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 1: at the strength and home. The home improvement has been 193 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: so strong over the course of the last twelve to 194 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: eighteen months, and home ownership is rising, So how durable 195 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: is some of the investment in the home, and do 196 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 1: we move from what we call hard home into stockholm 197 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: as we get into the back half of the year 198 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: as well, So all of those things are top of mind. 199 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: For us looking at the consumer and how she is 200 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: behaving and looking where she's prioritizing her dollars. Effany, can 201 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 1: you give us a sense of whether some of these 202 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:06,079 Speaker 1: companies are gaining market share or whether they're just exploiting 203 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 1: the reality of an incredible savings glut in American households 204 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: from pandemic checks and other aspects and the fact I 205 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: haven't got out to spend. I mean, can you give 206 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: us a sense of which will be the winners out 207 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: of this pandemic spending boom. Yeah, it's a really interesting 208 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: question because I think there's there are two classes. There 209 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: are going to be the survivors, those that make it 210 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 1: through clearly, there are some that aren't going to make 211 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: it through, and then there are these winners. And I 212 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: think that the upper class of winners really has three 213 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,599 Speaker 1: basic characteristics. Number One, they've used the pandemic to accelerate 214 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: their omni channel initiatives. They were already underway. They pressed 215 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: the gas pedal down and they effectively trained the consumer 216 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: to adopt some of these click and collect curbside pickup models, 217 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: which is actually not beneficial to margins. The second characteristic 218 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: is that they upgraded their merchandise assortments. So they looked 219 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: at the categories where they have clear, definitive advantages and 220 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: they pressed hard into those categories. And then third, and 221 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: I think this is probably the one that's going to 222 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: be the most curious to keep an eye on, is 223 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: how they are engaging with their consumer. How are they 224 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 1: going beyond this the transaction, collecting data, personalizing the experience, 225 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: customizing it because we do know that it's come out 226 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: of this pandemic, there is a cohort of shoppers that 227 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: wants to go back into stores, that wants to feel 228 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: welcomed and that the shopping experience is at an elevated level. 229 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 1: Otherwise it's just easier to order online. So I think 230 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: we're looking for those companies that have also spent time 231 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: thinking about their store experience just as much as their 232 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: digital experience. Raw materials, labor costs, solely the above has 233 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: been a big concernfinitely. Just finally, just to come back 234 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: to you and get a final comment on the price 235 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: pressure that's coming through for some of these companies. What 236 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: does that look like for the retailers. Every single company 237 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: has talked about rising wages of costs, particularly wage in 238 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: place and but also has signaled that there is some 239 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: product price in place and that's likely to come through. 240 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: So we're also monitoring the cp I as we get 241 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: through the middle part of this year and into the 242 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: back calf I do think we're going to see a 243 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: step function in consumer pricing. Stephaniely gotta leave it there, 244 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: Thank you, come back soon. Great cool on Macy's Ye today, 245 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 1: what a rip that's been. Stephanie whistick there the Jeffreys 246 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: equity analyst. You know there's some there's some interesting dynamics 247 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: here on the inflation fears that are out there. We're 248 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:28,719 Speaker 1: gonna do that. John's gonna lead that off. But I 249 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: to greet Michael Schoel and say good morning with market 250 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: Field Asset Management. And Michael, we've had more emails on 251 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: your love of new Tela than anything else. And we 252 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: had an America in the sixties. In the sixties, Michael, 253 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: we obtained and Sanca. We're in Europe, they had new 254 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: Tela and that speaks volumes about the Transatlantic divide that's 255 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: there at each and every moment. Well, you know, I 256 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: grew up in England as a kid with Lyles Golden Suit, 257 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: which I continue to get to my children today. We 258 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: didn't have enough teller in England. I mean, John, you 259 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: know they didn't have to tell in England. At the 260 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: same time, John Ferroll that Transatlantic dividers there is measured 261 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: by tang and I had golden syrup to Michael, I'm 262 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: surprised you're giving that to your kids, though. I think 263 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: we should probably move on and talk about this market. 264 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: What I give my kids with breakfast, carry on. Tell 265 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: what you give them goes in the taler, the stuff 266 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: that goes the waffle things that go in the toaster, 267 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: and maybe put some the tanner on wif things. John, 268 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: those waffles, those widerful things are egges, okay, I said, 269 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 1: And then I was called the eggoes the waffle things, 270 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: just in case anyone in your might think they were 271 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 1: actually eggs. How about those markets? Markets were defensive this morning, Michael, Michael, 272 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: just quickly your take on the price action this morning. 273 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: You'll tire everything else, A lower crude euro equities you'll 274 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: take this morning, please. I think we're in a bit 275 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 1: of a corrector phase. I mean, it's obviously centered around 276 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: you know that the sort of you know what we 277 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: call hope, which stands for highly optimistic projected earnings, that 278 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: sort of part of technology that everybody's sort of been 279 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: banking on so so furiously. And I think that that 280 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: really is in what I would call a major correction 281 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: at this point. And I think the overall market, you know, 282 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: is responding to that. And I think this is typical 283 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: in a in a major transition of leadership, you know, 284 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: which is I think, away from technology and towards cechnicality. 285 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: So you know, we'll have periods when everything kind of 286 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: goes up and periods when tech and the sort of 287 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: hope stuff leads us lower. You know, we're in the 288 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: latter right now. Why do you think that transition though, persists, Michael, 289 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 1: that transition from leadership from the growth names big tech 290 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 1: towards the most cyclical part of this market, you know, 291 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: because I think the global economy post pandemic is radically 292 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: different to the global economy pre pandemic. And some of 293 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: that is the director fact effect of the disease um 294 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: and some of it is the radical change in in 295 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: fiscal and monetary policy global I mean, we're really not 296 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: looking at the same set of circumstances in May one, 297 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: but we were in January January, and I think the 298 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: market is slowly starting, you know, to look about so 299 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: I mean, one example of how things have changed is, 300 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: you know, we have CPI over four percent right now. 301 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: If you look about another way, you know, any price 302 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 1: earnings above twenty five means that the earnings yield of 303 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: that company is no longer keeping up with inflation, you know, 304 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: tree pandemic. You know, with cp I in in the 305 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: mid ones um, everything in the SMP had had a 306 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 1: comfortable real earnings yield. So we have a very different 307 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: set of both market and monetary circumstances and economics circumstances 308 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: right now. When we talk about the market influences, I 309 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: want to talk about the risk that has been introduced 310 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: by bitcoin. Yes, we do have Bitcoin down significantly, and 311 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: people are talking about how that's indicative of a risk 312 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: off move. And yet I've been looking this morning at PayPal, MasterCard, 313 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: Tesla Square, some pretty big companies that have significant bitcoin exposure, 314 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,440 Speaker 1: and I'm wondering, at what point does a real draw 315 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,880 Speaker 1: down and bitcoin becomes something more systemic that a portfolio 316 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 1: manager invested in U S equities has to pay attention to. 317 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: You know, there is some crossover. I mean you know, 318 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: three years ago when bit kind blew up, it really 319 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: didn't matter. But right now there is some real institutional 320 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,120 Speaker 1: money and some real wealth management money in in bitcoin, 321 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: and of course there's a significant amount of market cap. 322 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: As I said, I I think the Hope trade, you 323 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: know it, which covers things like Tesla, uh, you know, 324 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: is already in a in a a in a significant 325 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: correction um and I think these stocks still have much 326 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: further to fall over over a period of time. And 327 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: I think we you know, you know, it does have 328 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 1: the potential to have sort of waves of panic attached, 329 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 1: you know, waves of panic attached to it, But I 330 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna undermine the cyclical forces which are 331 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: also you know, which are also in place at this 332 00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 1: point in you know, at this point in time. So 333 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 1: I look ahead several months, I think there's quite a 334 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: lot of cyclical equities in the US and global indexes 335 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,920 Speaker 1: like Australia and the UK which are very cycnically focused, 336 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,959 Speaker 1: which I think can be significantly higher, and there's scope 337 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: for significantly lower places and a lot of the high 338 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: multiple portions of the US and global equity market. What 339 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: is the profile of a panic in markets right now 340 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: at a time when the Fed is keeping policies very 341 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 1: easy and at a time of such incredible growth and earnings, well, 342 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 1: you know, it's a it's a significant draw down in 343 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 1: you know, in in prices, and you know it has 344 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: been a fairly severe correction so far in these high 345 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: multiple names. You know, the good thing is you're losing 346 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: money you only just made so you know, a lot 347 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: of this stuff is still higher than it was towards 348 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: the end of the fourth quarter twenty but the declines 349 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: from one high is significant. But there's a lot of 350 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: stuff down plus um in a couple of months, which 351 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,360 Speaker 1: which by any definition is is is a severe correction. 352 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: Now it's too early to say what what we end 353 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: of today looks like, but you know, the sup you 354 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: re sponding by going down one and a half two percent, 355 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: there's a degree of panick in the market at that point. Michael, 356 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: what's the opportunity in equities when you look at you know, 357 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: sectors and the different factors that are out there, between 358 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: small cap, MidCap international and a beleaguered e M. Where's 359 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: the opportunity, As I said, I think in the cynical parts. 360 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 1: And you know e M is a good example, I 361 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 1: don't like the MSc I Emerging market indexes a place 362 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 1: to put money. But the reason is is because it's 363 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: now dominated by Asian technology companies, which is not really 364 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: what I want to own right now, but that some 365 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: of the cyclical emerging market indexes still look just fine. 366 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: Becauzil looks cheap, Mexico looks fine, Russia looks fine. They 367 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: just don't have a lot of market cap. As far 368 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: as the overall index is concerned. You could say the 369 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: same about the S and P. I don't think it's 370 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 1: the best benchmark to be in, but the cyclical portions 371 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: of it energy, materials, some of the financials, you know, 372 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: I think looked just fine and and and Globally, I 373 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 1: think the two developed markets would really stand out are 374 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 1: the UK and Australia simply because of the makeup of 375 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: their indexes. You know, the UK gives you a lot 376 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: of materials and a lot of energy. Australia gives you 377 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: a lot of financials and a lot of materials. And 378 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 1: I think the underlying efex is also going to battle. 379 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: You know, the Aussie dollar looks very very cheap versus 380 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: global commodity devices, and sterling is just coming out of 381 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 1: its exit funk. I mean, Sterling is exactly where it 382 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 1: was when the exit vote went the long way for 383 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:37,479 Speaker 1: most people in Jueen two thousand and sixtifty six. Michael, 384 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: Thank you, sir Michael Shell, Market Ferness and Management c 385 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: e O. I think most Asians have this sense of otherness, 386 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: and of course I felt that especially here on the 387 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,199 Speaker 1: mainland US. I mean I've had people Americans come up 388 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: to me and say things to me like who are 389 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 1: you really from, even while I was wearing our nation's 390 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 1: uniform with American flag on my shoulder and US Army 391 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 1: on my chest over my heart. Lieutenant Colonel from Illinois. 392 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: An important interview David ruben Stein with another wonderful and 393 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: important peer to peer conversation. Look for that at nine 394 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: pm tonight and Mr Rubinstein joins us right now on 395 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: Tammy Duckworth. She is a politician, but far far more 396 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: than that. It is a long, it's exceptional story, David 397 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,959 Speaker 1: Rubinstein from the Singapore School, the uh the Bangkok School. 398 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 1: A father that moved around and moved around and moved around, 399 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 1: and really there were some tough times to her war duty. 400 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: What did she say to you about the war duty 401 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: and where she is now in two thousand twenty one, Well, 402 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 1: of course, now a United States Senator. She was considered 403 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: by President Biden to be his vice presidential choice, and 404 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: she came from very far away from that kind of life. 405 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: She grew up with a fair amount of poverty in Thailand, 406 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 1: in Hawaii, and then ultimately decided to become a helicopter 407 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: pilot and for the Illinois National Guard. She went over 408 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 1: to Iraq and tragically she lost her legs in a 409 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:16,639 Speaker 1: helicopter um accident and as a result she had to 410 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: rebuild her life. But since that time, she was elected 411 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: to Congress, served in the Obama administration, and has mothered 412 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: two children. David, the immediate point is Asia Americans and 413 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: how they relate to the rest of this country. She 414 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 1: has a unique and important perspective. What did she say 415 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 1: about anti Asian comments, Well, she thinks that despite the 416 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: fact that she's the United States Center and gave a 417 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 1: large part of her body to the United States government 418 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: and effect through the tragic accident that occurred while she 419 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: was fighting on our behalf, um, she's still discriminated against. Clearly, 420 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,199 Speaker 1: she's in a different position than she was when she 421 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: was younger, but she still thinks that discrimination against Asian 422 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 1: Americans is fairly evident across the country and getting worse, 423 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: and she's fighting trying to fight it. You know, one 424 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 1: thing that's so great about your interviews is you always 425 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: get to the human side of people who are in 426 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: places of high power. And I'm wondering if you can 427 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 1: give a sense of how some of these images of 428 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 1: some of these consequences Asian American discrimination and some of 429 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: the social changes that have come from the pandemic have 430 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: colored her views when it comes to pushing certain parts 431 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,680 Speaker 1: of the Biden administration's agenda. There's no doubt that the 432 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: recent pandemic has focused more attentional on Asians. Many people 433 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: uh in the United States think that everybody from Asia 434 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: is from China and effect and there. While there may 435 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: be upset about China, they take it out against all Asians, 436 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 1: and they shouldn't be taken out against anybody, really, because 437 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 1: nobody in the United States really had anything to do 438 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: with that who is an Asian American or Asian. But anyway, 439 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,479 Speaker 1: that's the way the life has involved. Sadly, I do 440 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: think that she is determined to do more about it. 441 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:56,880 Speaker 1: And trying to do what she can as the United 442 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 1: States Center. But the most important thing is and to 443 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: me that for all the things that she's had to 444 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 1: go through, she doesn't seem to have any bitterness. You know, 445 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: she lost her legs in an accident where she didn't 446 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: have to go on that mission, She didn't have to 447 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 1: go to Iraq. She volunteered. She didn't have to go 448 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 1: on that mission that where the helicopter crash. She volunteered, 449 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,439 Speaker 1: and she basically put her life back together again. She 450 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: and her husband had two children. Subsequent to that, she 451 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 1: got elected to Congress, and she's very relatively cheerful. I 452 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 1: don't see how anybody can be that cheerful given what 453 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: she's been through. But she doesn't really, uh, you know, 454 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: have a bitterness that I would would have thought she 455 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 1: would have had. It's an compelling story. Yeah, it definitely is. 456 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,919 Speaker 1: The other thing that she has happiness, even if she 457 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 1: juggles a pretty big workload and a pretty big homeload. 458 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: And she talked a little bit about how it is 459 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 1: challenging UH to go back and forth within both of 460 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: those and it does speak to the Biden Administration's plan 461 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 1: for child tax credits. And for other areas to help families. 462 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: Can you give us a sense of how much mainstream 463 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,360 Speaker 1: support she sees this having versus some of the pushback 464 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,639 Speaker 1: where people are saying, stop trying to shoehorn in certain 465 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: agendas into this broader issue that we have right now 466 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 1: fighting and emerging from the pandemic. Well, there's no doubt 467 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: that the pandemic has been the main focus of members 468 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 1: of Congress for a while. But I think now people 469 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: are beginning to look at other issues, and clearly the 470 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 1: tax issues and the infrastructure issues of things she's worried 471 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 1: about and working on. But I think she has a 472 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: unique voice. Um, she's one of the few people have 473 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: served in Congress with these kind of tragic accidents that 474 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 1: she's gone through. And she's living in full life now. 475 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: She's got two young children, she's married, Um, she's got 476 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: responsibilities back in Illinois. She juggles all that and does 477 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 1: it pretty well, I would say. And it's really an 478 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: inspirational story about how somebody can come from very very 479 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: modest circumstances, rise up in our country, have great sacrifices 480 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,919 Speaker 1: to the country, and not be bitter about what happened 481 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 1: to her And now she's serving the country. So it's 482 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: a great human dimension story, and she wrote a great 483 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 1: book about it, which I talked about in the In 484 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: the interview, David, one phone question, what does she say 485 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: about the future of her Democratic Party? When you're from Illinois, 486 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: it's a certain democratic politics. What did she say nationally 487 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: about the Democrats to two thousand twenty two? We didn't 488 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: really get into that. My guess is that she's from 489 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: a state that's pretty democratic, and I think she reflects 490 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: that the mainstream of that democratic thought. But I think 491 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 1: she feels that better um bipartisan cooperation in Congress will 492 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 1: be a good thing. She's trying to bring that about, 493 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 1: but it's not easy to do. She is working across 494 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 1: the aisles and certain things he cares about, and I 495 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 1: do think she's a great symbol for that kind of cooperation. David, 496 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: Thank you for the time. David Rubinstein and Carlisle Group 497 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: Quille founder and of course the interview with Mr Rubinstein, 498 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: the Senator from Illinois, Tammy Duckworth, David Rubinstein, Peer to 499 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:46,400 Speaker 1: peer Conversations. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. 500 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am. Eastern 501 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from 502 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 503 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 504 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on 505 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg.