1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: We are still knee deep in earning season. 7 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 3: And even though I keep saying that most of big 8 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 3: tech has reported, not all of tech has reported. 9 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 2: Cisco was the latest to report. It's a hardware company. 10 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: They make the gear for Internet networking, and they're benefiting 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 3: from AI. They're getting more business from AI like many 12 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 3: hardware companies, but they're also seeing a downside to that, 13 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 3: and that is higher costs. Woujin Hoo is our senior 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 3: hardware networking analyst here now to give us some insight 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 3: into Cisco. So Ujin, it sounds like the increasing cost 16 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: of memory chips is kind of dogging Cisco like we've 17 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 3: seen with other hardware companies. How do you think about 18 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 3: the increase in cost of memory chips? Is this kind 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 3: of a one time problem, one time adjustment, or is 20 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 3: this creating a new normal for hardware companies? 21 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 4: Yeah? 22 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 5: Hey, Scarlett, So now when we think about it. It 23 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 5: is going to create a new normal. Quite quite frankly, 24 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 5: the magnitude of the DRAM price increases was a bit 25 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 5: higher that we had anticipated, and it's going to be 26 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 5: a drag on margins. At least it already hit the 27 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 5: current reported quarter, and then it is going to be 28 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 5: another two hundred basis points gross margin rosion next quarter. 29 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 5: The one thing that we can be assured of is 30 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 5: that there's going to be a price increases across the 31 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 5: board for a lot of Cisco's products and more importantly 32 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 5: a lot of big tech products such as Dell and 33 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 5: Hpe going forward. 34 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 6: So is this more today an industry problem or a 35 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 6: Cisco problem here? 36 00:01:55,760 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 5: No, it's an everybody problem, Plum quite frankly. I mean, look, 37 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 5: there's a couple of things here right. The DRAM pricing 38 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 5: isn't going to hurt only Cisco. But I'm scrambling to 39 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 5: get new laptops from my kids before the DEVAM prices 40 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 5: hit the PC market as well. And you know what 41 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 5: we are going to see is that anything that's DRAM heavy, 42 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 5: in particular servers, that's going to be bogged down on 43 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 5: the gross of margin side. But what I'm trying to 44 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 5: balance out is how much of that is going to 45 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 5: how much are the companies going to eat that gross margin? 46 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 5: And how much is that going to be passed through? 47 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 3: Okay, so I guess the other part of it was 48 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 3: that Cisco shares were kind of priced to perfection as 49 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 3: a lot of people were putting it. 50 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 2: So it didn't take a whole lot. 51 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 3: For investors to react negatively to Cisco and the latest results. 52 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 3: But ten and a half percent, you know, that's that's 53 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 3: a pretty big adjustment. Are people re rating this company completely? 54 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 7: Yeah? 55 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 5: And you actually make a good point. Right, as I 56 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 5: was looking into the print, the PE was at roughly 57 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 5: twenty one twenty two times, and the last time we 58 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 5: saw the pees like that was back in twenty twenty 59 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 5: three when people were pre buying a lot of networking 60 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 5: gear and during the COVID cycle, right, And what you know, 61 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 5: historically ps are roughly around seventeen to eighteen times for Cisco, 62 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 5: and what we are seeing is that the multiples coming 63 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 5: back to the seventeen to eighteen times. And I do 64 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 5: think that's kind of a bit wrong, Scarlett, primarily because 65 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 5: this AI story is actually has a lot of sales 66 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 5: behind a lot of wind behind its sales. And I 67 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 5: think a lot of investors are overlooking the AI opportunity, 68 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 5: which is going to be multi year for Cisco. 69 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 6: How long will the industry have to deal with I 70 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 6: guess chip shortage going forward? Is this something that chip 71 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 6: makers can just go up a switch and start making 72 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 6: more chips? 73 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 5: You know, I wish I had a bottle with the 74 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 5: magic gen that will pop up and create new DRAMs. 75 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 5: But the fact of the matter is is that every 76 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 5: time you have if you want to create capacity for 77 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 5: new memory chips, it takes about two to three years. 78 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 5: And the memory manufacturers were struggling very bad during the 79 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 5: during the COVID period when there was over capacity, and 80 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 5: they've been hasn't to build up the capacity. But this 81 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 5: AI boom and the memory demand related to the AI 82 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 5: boom is a lot stronger than we had anticipated in 83 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 5: you know, I think my colleague Jake Silverman has a 84 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 5: good piece out on how long it'll last. It might 85 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 5: take another two three years before it gets resolved. 86 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 3: So is there and I realized that this is more 87 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: Jake's remit But is there still any kind of excess 88 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 3: inventory of those memory chips or have we drawn down 89 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 3: on all of that. 90 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 7: Well. 91 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 5: I also covered the hard discrip space Scarlett. So my guy, 92 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 5: my hard dest right guys are sold out until twenty 93 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 5: twenty six and possibly the twenty twenty seven. All the 94 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 5: read throughs from s K high Neck, Samsung, Micron, and 95 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 5: sand Disk, they're all sold out through twenty six and 96 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 5: into twenty seven, already taking orders for twenty seven and 97 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 5: twenty eight. 98 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 6: So this is a global problem. This isn't a trade 99 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 6: spat supply chain screwing everything up, trade war tariff type thing. 100 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 6: This is just global supply issue. 101 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is this is That's exactly it, right. You know, 102 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 5: the b I team has been writing about this for 103 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,239 Speaker 5: a couple of couple of months now, and they started 104 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 5: to exasperate into higher levels. To give you some context, 105 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 5: we picked up on the higher chip memory prices back 106 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 5: in November when they were rising. We're fully around fifty 107 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 5: sixty percent on a year or year basis. Over the 108 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 5: past quarter dround prices have doubled to almost tripled, So 109 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 5: everyone's scrambling to get chips before they rise even further. 110 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 3: All right, So inevitably that means laptop prices are going 111 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 3: to be higher a long with everything else. 112 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 2: What about smart appliances. 113 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 3: Do they use memory chips or do they use the 114 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 3: analytic chips that Texas Instrument makes well. 115 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 5: I mean, get to get your smart TV, get your 116 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 5: smart refrigerator, laundry matt stove as quickly as possible. I 117 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 5: think the bigger issue here Scarlett is probably going to 118 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 5: be the smartphone market. You know, IDC has cut their 119 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 5: smartphone forecast to be in decline, primarily because there aren't 120 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 5: enough memory memory DRAM chips and as well as storage 121 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 5: to help supply all the smartphones. Apples should be okay, 122 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 5: but at the end of the day that there is 123 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 5: going to be a supply constraint there. 124 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 2: Stay with us. 125 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 126 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 127 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 128 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 129 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 130 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 6: And again, all the hotels reporting, a lot of the 131 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 6: leisure companies reporting here high it just report it and 132 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 6: some decent numbers of street likes it stocks up five 133 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 6: point six percent today, that's a fifty two week high 134 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 6: and a stocks up eleven percent year to date. Let's 135 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 6: check in with Jody Lourie. She's a senior credit analyst 136 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 6: for Bloomberg Intelligence. Jody talk to us about Hyat. We 137 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 6: heard from Hilton. What are the folks at Hyatt saying 138 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 6: about their business? 139 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 4: So everything is seeming to be pretty upbeat. I mean, 140 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 4: we're seeing a lot of the same narrative that we 141 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 4: heard from Marriott that we heard from Hilton, and it's 142 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 4: that we're seeing the strength in the luxury market at 143 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 4: the moment. And it's not so surprising for us because 144 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 4: we've been talking about this. I mean, we did our 145 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 4: travel survey, we ran it in November, and we talked 146 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 4: about the k shaped economy. We anticipated that coming into 147 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 4: this year, people who have the ability to spend on 148 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 4: travel are going to continue and those who aren't might 149 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 4: pull back a little bit, and so we've started to 150 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 4: see that. I think what's probably more interesting maybe is 151 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 4: that both Brian Egger, my equity counterpart, and I have 152 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,239 Speaker 4: been talking about this topic and we've been comparing notes 153 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 4: and we're pretty in lined, which usually don't really see 154 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 4: equity and credit analysts line. But it's kind of hard not. 155 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 3: To be in this situation, right, the fundamentals are the fundamentals, 156 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 3: and these companies are able to monetize on that ca 157 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 3: shaped economy, certainly by focusing their efforts on the upper end. 158 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 3: What about the lower end? Marriet runs Courtyard by Marriott, 159 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 3: and that's it's branding right there. Does it mean that 160 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 3: it just you know, focuses less on that or devotes 161 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 3: less resources to it. Is that a brand that you know, 162 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 3: kind of has a ceiling. 163 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 4: So I don't think it necessarily has a ceiling per se, 164 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 4: But I think that, you know, and what I think 165 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 4: the companies are taking a longer term outlook of Okay, 166 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 4: right now, at this moment, those businesses might be a 167 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 4: little bit weaker. They also actually cost a little bit 168 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 4: less to run, because when you think about luxury businesses, 169 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 4: you have a lot more additional costs that you have 170 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 4: to contribute to give the quality of service that the 171 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 4: customer expects. So I don't think they're necessarily going to 172 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 4: stop creating those brands and building out that platform. In fact, 173 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 4: they think they're going to continue doing that because eventually 174 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 4: will run its course. What I do think is an 175 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 4: interesting point that we've talked about a few times is 176 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 4: if you look at a company like Choice, which is 177 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 4: much more heavily embedded in that lower income consumer, embedded 178 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 4: in that extended stay market that was likely more so 179 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 4: affected by, for instance, the government shutdown which Marriott, which 180 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 4: Hilton talked about on most recent quarters. And so I 181 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 4: think that's where you're going to really see. The differentiation 182 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 4: is not so much in these companies that have these global, 183 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 4: massive brands that they can sort of like shift around 184 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 4: resources and also anticipate that some of their brands might 185 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 4: be stronger than others at different times of the cycle. 186 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 4: I think it's more in the ones that are a 187 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 4: little bit more concentrated that might have some issues. 188 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 2: Okay, that makes a lot of sense. 189 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 3: And I want to pick up on what you said 190 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 3: about how luxury running those luxury brands costs more. How 191 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 3: much of those costs does high at the company which 192 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 3: has an asset light business model bear versus whoever's paying 193 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 3: the licensing fee to Hiatt Sure? 194 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 4: And I think that's a key question too, because us start. 195 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 4: When you think about it, you know, the Hyatt is 196 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 4: doing the management of it, right, so they have the brand, 197 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 4: they have the management, but you do have the company 198 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 4: that owns the property. And more so, what you know, 199 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 4: what they sort of reference on the call, and we've 200 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 4: heard this a few times from the company, is more 201 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 4: the anticipation that some of the owners of the hotels, 202 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 4: if they have issues with financing, that these companies have 203 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 4: to sort of think about ways that they can leverage 204 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 4: their higher quality ratings to help them with financing, to 205 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 4: grow up the business and to make these sort of 206 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 4: modifications on the properties themselves. Hyatt is an interesting company 207 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 4: in and of itself because you know, it generates great 208 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 4: cashloads and anticipates to generate strong cashloads this year. But 209 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 4: it's twice now done the same thing where it made 210 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 4: these relatively large scale acquisitions to expand its footprint and 211 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 4: to build out into all inclusives, into other parts of 212 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 4: the market and extend their sort of you know, vertical integration. 213 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 4: And in both instances they levered up to do so, 214 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 4: but they've been pretty quick to de lever and to 215 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 4: your point, Scarlett, they use their pivot into asset light, 216 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 4: meaning selling their properties and entering into management agreements to 217 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 4: do so, so they benefit from that fee structure instead. 218 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 6: So is there debt for you to look at for 219 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 6: these hotel companies are there all this asset like stuff. 220 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 4: There is debt because the companies are still borrowing. You know, 221 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 4: they're borrowing to sort of build out their platforms, they're 222 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 4: borrowing to do tech upgrades, They're borrowing for all sorts 223 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 4: of reasons. Marriott has sort of this I don't want 224 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 4: to say it's a flywheel, because it's not. But they're 225 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 4: at the point now where they you know, they have 226 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 4: triple V ratings, they access the commercial payment market and 227 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 4: they can access it because of their short term ratings 228 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 4: at the moment, and they use it as cash gaps, right, 229 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 4: and they'll fill those cash gaps and then they refinance 230 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 4: the debt that's coming due. So I don't think we're 231 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 4: in a situation where these higher grade companies like Marriott 232 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 4: is going to necessarily increase their jet load. They're just 233 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 4: going to sort of lean on the ebdout growth. They're 234 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 4: going to lean on the fact that they have these 235 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 4: cash flows to support that. You know, they are going 236 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 4: to give back to shareholders. They're continuing to do so. 237 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 4: We're seeing Hyatt talk about that as well, and I 238 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 4: expect that that's going to be the case now in 239 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 4: Hyatt's situation. They are still talking a little bit more 240 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 4: about deleveraging just to get back to the category that 241 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 4: they need to be in. But I think that over time, 242 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,559 Speaker 4: and it's the type of thing that we see these 243 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 4: companies issue debt, foreign acquisition, and then they do lever 244 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 4: and then they do it again. 245 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 2: Stay with us. 246 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 247 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 248 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android 249 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 250 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 251 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 6: Again, a busy day in the earnings from particularly for 252 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 6: some of the restaurant companies. McDonald's reported numbers that beat estimates. 253 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 6: Restaurant brand think Burger King, I think is kind of 254 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 6: it raised its dividend. So let's talk to Michael Halen. 255 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 6: He is the analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence. Well, I was 256 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 6: all the restaurant companies out there. Mike, thanks so much 257 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 6: for joining us here. Let's talk about McDonald's. Their value 258 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 6: menu was a kind of a hit with consumers. 259 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 8: Yeah, they've re established themselves as the value leader in 260 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 8: QSR which makes sense. 261 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 3: Right. 262 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,839 Speaker 8: They have fourteen thousand stores in the US, more scale 263 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 8: than anybody, you know, and they've done a phenomenal job 264 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 8: with the marketing. I mean, I think they sold fifty 265 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 8: five million pairs of Grinch socks, right, the Grinch Happy Meal, 266 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 8: they got one of their most successful promotions ever. Right, 267 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:48,479 Speaker 8: So yeah, they're firing on all cylinders. They also benefited 268 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 8: from lapping E Coli a year ago, and that's that's 269 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 8: how they ended up with such a strong comp in 270 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 8: which was a pretty tough quarter for most of the 271 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 8: industry because of the cold weather and the flu that 272 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 8: we saw in decent right. 273 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 3: And we also are hearing that McDonald's is not going 274 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 3: to rest on his laurels. It's looking to innovate. It's 275 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 3: going to introduce some new beverages under the McCafe mcafe, mcafe, 276 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 3: mcafe mcafe that's hard to say cafe French anyway, indulging 277 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 3: coffees that sounds kind of fancy? Is that to appeal 278 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 3: to the consumer who might be trading down to McDonald's. 279 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 8: Now, you know what it's it's beverages are hot, I 280 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 8: mean cosmics, you know, although that that chain isn't isn't 281 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 8: you know, has been kind of dissolved that they they've 282 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 8: learned a lot about the beverage beverage industry through that 283 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 8: through that test, right dirty sodas. You know, there's a 284 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 8: chain out west called Swig that that absolutely crushes it 285 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 8: with dirty sodas. Think you know, popa polo with added 286 00:14:55,880 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 8: syrups and whipped cream on top and things of that nature. Right, 287 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 8: It's a lot of energy drinks. These these are like 288 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 8: really a really hot segment of the QSR industry. It 289 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 8: has been for years, right as some of these bigger, 290 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 8: slower moving chains like McDonald's are starting to kind of 291 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 8: jump on this bandwagon a little bit later. But you know, 292 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 8: we think this is this could be meaningful for them 293 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 8: in the second half, you know, and it's no longer public, 294 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 8: but you know, this could take a chunk out of 295 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 8: Sonic's business, you know, because they've they've long been a 296 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 8: beneficiary of the beverage market, you know. And what's nice 297 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 8: about that business is a lot of those drinks are 298 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 8: sold and during that snack period, you know, when these 299 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 8: restaurants have a low around you know, two, three, four 300 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 8: o'clock in the afternoon. 301 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 6: Restaurant brands. They also reported some numbership remind us who 302 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 6: restaurant brands is and what they're doing these days? How 303 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 6: are their results? 304 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 8: Yeah, so you know it was kind of mixed results 305 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 8: versus what the street was looking for. You know, I 306 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 8: look at the underlying trends and I think they're still strong. 307 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 8: So the reason why it's down right now is, you know, 308 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 8: Burger King showed an acceleration in the US, which is 309 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 8: is pretty promising. You know, they showed strong results at 310 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 8: IT international and International is a pretty well oiled machine 311 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 8: for this company. But there was some deceleration in the 312 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 8: Tim Horton's numbers, which makes up sixty percent of adjusted EBITDA. 313 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 8: And you know Popeyes remains kind of weak, right, So 314 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 8: I'd say the biggest concern in this report is really 315 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 8: about the slowdown in tim Horns. But it's lapping tougher comps. 316 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 8: And when we look at you know, same store sales 317 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 8: trends going back you know a handfull of years, the 318 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 8: trends are actually accelerating even though it decelled the on 319 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 8: the one year and a two year basis, And so 320 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 8: you know, tim Horns is a monster in Canada. I 321 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 8: wouldn't be too concerned about it. Like I said, a 322 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 8: big part of this story is the internetational unit growth 323 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 8: that they're putting up, and we think they can get 324 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,959 Speaker 8: back up to mid single digits here in another year 325 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 8: or so. You know, Popeyes and Burger King are absolutely 326 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 8: crushing it around the globe, and you know, we expect 327 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 8: pretty solid growth here and we think they can outperform 328 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 8: a lot of their quick service peers here in twenty 329 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 8: twenty six. 330 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 3: Michael, how are the McDonald's and the restaurant brands of 331 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 3: the world using AI. We've seen them embraced automation with 332 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 3: you know, you have to go order yourself at the 333 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 3: kiosk and then someone calls your number, so they've removed 334 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 3: they've made things more automated in that regard. 335 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 2: But how will AI change the whole experience? 336 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, you know AI is going to change the experience, 337 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 8: the restaurant experience in different ways, Like different chains are 338 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 8: going to look to different solutions. Something that works for 339 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 8: one type of chain like a Chipotle, isn't going to 340 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 8: work for McDonald's and vice versus. So you know, I 341 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 8: think when you're looking at AI first and foremost, it's 342 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 8: going to be a continued progress on that one to 343 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 8: one marketing, getting people into your loyalty program and eventually 344 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 8: getting those very directed offers to them at the right times. Right, 345 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 8: this has been kind of a long time coming. AI 346 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 8: should really kind of help with that piece, and I 347 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 8: think for these quick service chains, the thing that's going 348 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 8: to be probably most useful is like an AI assistant. 349 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 8: You know, Taco Bella is rolling this out, testing it 350 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 8: and then eventually going to roll out to all its 351 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 8: stores where they have basically an AI assistant for their 352 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 8: GM tells them how much food they need to prep, 353 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 8: if they need more labor on the line, helps them 354 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 8: have more accurate sales projections, so they know how much 355 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:51,959 Speaker 8: labor they're going to need on any given day, how 356 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 8: much food prep they need to do, whatever it might be. 357 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 6: Right. 358 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 8: So, I think those are going to be the two 359 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 8: most ubiquitous use cases and probably the ones that we'll 360 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 8: see most of the progress on in the near term. 361 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 6: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up here. 362 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 7: For this. 363 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 364 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 365 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg business app listen on demand wherever 366 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 367 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 6: One of the stocks on the move to the downside 368 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 6: is tech company app Lovin. I'm just looking at the 369 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 6: stock here, really taking it on the chin here. Today 370 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 6: they had some earnings and some guidance, a little bit 371 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 6: of a challenge that stocks down nineteen percent today and 372 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 6: forty five percent year to date. This is a big 373 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 6: company that a lot of people, including myself, don't know 374 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 6: a lot about. We're going to change that right now. 375 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 6: It's got to mark a cap of one hundred and 376 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 6: twenty five billion dollars. Nathan nade Joints is Bloomberg Intelligence 377 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 6: technology research analysts. Nathan, do me a solid here and 378 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 6: just tell me what app love and does. Number one 379 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 6: and number two why should it start getting hammered today? 380 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 7: So thanks for the questions. First question, app Lovin essentially 381 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 7: controls and auction, which is a marketplace where ad space 382 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 7: inside of mobile apps are bought and soul. 383 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 2: It has a. 384 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,119 Speaker 7: Commanding influence on this sort of real time auctions for 385 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 7: in app ad space and that is helping. You know. 386 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 7: The reason it runs an auction houses because it essentially 387 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 7: connects advertisers which one to advertise inside of mobile gaming apps, 388 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 7: and also mobile gaming app publishers that want to sell 389 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 7: ad space to make dollars. You know, because a lot 390 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,360 Speaker 7: of these states these days, a lot of mobile apps, 391 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 7: games or otherwise I actually offer for free. So how 392 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 7: else are they going to make money if not selling 393 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 7: the ad space inside of the apps and Applevin is 394 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 7: essentially the mediator connecting brands which one to advertise and 395 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 7: apps which want to sell the ad space. And on 396 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 7: the share price reaction we saw today, I think, you know, 397 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 7: I think to some extent that's used to this sort 398 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 7: of AI disruption risk or so called AI fears. And 399 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 7: obviously Eplevin is not alone in facing disruption for any 400 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,399 Speaker 7: sort of AI companies. And there's been a lot of 401 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 7: headlines where the Google genie in the last week that 402 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 7: can create an interactive video with simple text prompts. It 403 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 7: means people like you and I can create games you know, 404 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 7: any and you know sometime soon. And also more closer 405 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 7: to home for Ablevin, there's a startup called cloud Acts, 406 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 7: which is in the space that Eplevin is in. It's 407 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 7: Ablevin's brand by the business, which is mobile ad monetization, 408 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 7: and there's still uncertainty around how much disruption the extent 409 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 7: of disruption to Eplevin because Eblevin's mode, which is a 410 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 7: word that gets thrown around a lot, but it's essentially 411 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 7: its competitive advantages are relatively stronger than other rivals in 412 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 7: the space. Yeah, I think I'll leave it then to 413 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 7: see if there's any follow up. 414 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 3: Okay, thank you for that introduction. So it sounds like 415 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 3: to a large extent, because it's tied to the advertising industry, 416 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 3: that it is cyclical, that it's going to move in 417 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 3: line with how people feel about the economy. So where 418 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 3: does that leave this company when it comes to disruption 419 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 3: or resilience to. 420 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 2: The AI narrative. 421 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 3: I mean, even if it doesn't happen right away, there's 422 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 3: that idea that it could down the road. 423 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, you certainly right, like that it could happen down 424 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 7: the road. But I guess going back to the extent 425 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 7: of disruption and this so called mode which is competitive advantage, 426 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 7: and I think av Levin has some tricks of it 427 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 7: leadst For example, it has these AI or machine learning 428 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 7: models that took more than five years to build, and 429 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 7: it's trained with data from in app transactions back when 430 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 7: it was still publishing games. And obviously how sharp a 431 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 7: model is at targeting ads depends on the quality of 432 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,919 Speaker 7: the data and the and the amount of data. And 433 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 7: I believe because Ablevin's model, at least in helping advertisers 434 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 7: target ads instead of mobile giving apps, that model is 435 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 7: mature in the sense it would take some time before 436 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 7: any sort of upstarts can catch up to that level 437 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 7: of sophistication in the modeling. So I believe Evelurbin steps 438 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 7: in one way and like for context, right, and when 439 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 7: an ad it's shown to a mobile gamer, seven or 440 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 7: eight out of ten times that ads is med data 441 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 7: by Ablevin. That is how much of a commanding influence 442 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 7: Ablevin has in the in the auction of digital ad space. 443 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 7: So I believe that dominance. It's you know, it would 444 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 7: take a lot to displace that, but uh, you know, 445 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 7: obviously for smaller rivals in the space, whether it's unity 446 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 7: is vector or you know, uh leveler. You know, for 447 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 7: smaller rivals, I think, you know, the concerns for AI 448 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 7: fears might be even more pronounced. 449 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:05,719 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify 450 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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