WEBVTT - Japan’s $2 Trillion ‘Dementia Money’ Cliff

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, This at All.

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<v Speaker 2>Chizuko is a seventy six year old retyree who lives

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<v Speaker 2>in the Japanese rural district of the Kui just north

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<v Speaker 2>of Kyoto. Her daughter Ma is fifty five. Chizuko and

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<v Speaker 2>my are pseudonyms that they've asked us to use for

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<v Speaker 2>privacy because they're talking about their family's finances. They were

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<v Speaker 2>interviewed by Bloomberg in October.

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<v Speaker 1>So, Chizuko, she lives in, you know, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>rural parts of the prefecture, kind of surrounded by by

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of forestry and ricefield.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Alice French, who covers the Japanese stock market out

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<v Speaker 2>of Tokyo.

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<v Speaker 1>She's been an active stock investor since she was kind

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<v Speaker 1>of in her thirties or forties, So her finances are,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, important to her. She she's built up quite

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<v Speaker 1>a nice nest egg or, but she's a pensioner now

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<v Speaker 1>and she relies quite heavily on those savings that she's

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<v Speaker 1>built up.

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<v Speaker 2>Like many Japanese families, the pair rarely talk about money,

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<v Speaker 2>but recently Chizuko's downer heard something that pushed her to

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<v Speaker 2>finally broach the topic of financial planning with her mind.

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<v Speaker 1>My the daughter was telling us that she's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>been hearing stories recently, one of which came from another relative,

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<v Speaker 1>one of her relatives. Basically, their account was found frozen

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<v Speaker 1>after they passed away.

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<v Speaker 2>My said, the children of her elderly relative had no

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<v Speaker 2>idea the account had been frozen. When it came time

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<v Speaker 2>for them to handle the state, they were shocked to

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<v Speaker 2>discover that they couldn't access their parents' money.

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<v Speaker 1>And this kind of really triggered an anxiety for my

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<v Speaker 1>you know, she's thinking, you know, her parents are also

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<v Speaker 1>kind of getting to that age. They're relying on a pension,

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<v Speaker 1>and obviously, you know, one never really wants to have

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<v Speaker 1>to think about your parents kind of becoming able to

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<v Speaker 1>handle things themselves, but it is a reality and something

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<v Speaker 1>that you have to think about.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a reality playing out all over the world as

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<v Speaker 2>population's age and families plan for their futures. In Japan,

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<v Speaker 2>home to the world's oldest population, there's a greater sense

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<v Speaker 2>of urgency to the planning. That's because almost a third

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<v Speaker 2>of the country, around thirty six million people, are over

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<v Speaker 2>the age of sixty five.

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<v Speaker 1>More and more seniors are now reaching that age where

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<v Speaker 1>they might be experiencing dementia or you know, these kind

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<v Speaker 1>of financial risks that come with aging, whether that be

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<v Speaker 1>kind of rash purchases, sudden selling.

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<v Speaker 2>In Japan, these financial risks aren't confined to small pocketbook issues.

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<v Speaker 2>Seniors with symptoms of cognitive decline now control trillions of

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<v Speaker 2>dollars in liquid assets. That's cash and investments in stocks,

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<v Speaker 2>bonds and other securities. Assets that are at risk of

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<v Speaker 2>being mismanaged are not being put to you in the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>It's almost half of Japan's GDP that falls into this category.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, from health economists to think tanks to lawyers,

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<v Speaker 1>all of the people that we spoke to are basically saying,

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<v Speaker 1>as that pile of assets grows, it's going to slow

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<v Speaker 1>down consumption, it's going to slow down markets, it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to start impacting economic growth. It's kind of got to

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<v Speaker 1>a level now where I think it's becoming difficult to ignore,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's really started to raise alarm bells in Japan

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<v Speaker 1>but also across other economies.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.

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<v Speaker 2>Every week we take you inside some of the world's

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<v Speaker 2>biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tyccoons, and

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<v Speaker 2>businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, on the

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<v Speaker 2>show Japan's Dementia Dilemma, a growing share of the country's

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<v Speaker 2>financial assets are controlled by the elderly, many at risk

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<v Speaker 2>of cognitive decline. Why that's a problem for everyone, not

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<v Speaker 2>just Japan, and what the Japanese are doing about it.

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<v Speaker 2>In Japan, older people have a lot of financial power.

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<v Speaker 2>Those over sixty five control more than half of the

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<v Speaker 2>fourteen trillion dollars in cash and securities held by Japanese households.

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<v Speaker 2>But Bloomberg's Alice French says a big chunk of those

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<v Speaker 2>liquid assets is held by people with dementia and cognitive issues.

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<v Speaker 1>We understand from data from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank that

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<v Speaker 1>it's at around two trillion dollars, which is around three

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifteen trillion yen. Now that includes people who

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<v Speaker 1>have an actual dementia diagnosis, but it also encompasses people

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<v Speaker 1>with something called mild cognitive impairments. Now, this is usually

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<v Speaker 1>something that comes in kind of in the years before

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<v Speaker 1>you might get in a dementia diagnosis, you know, sort

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<v Speaker 1>of from the age of sixty five onwards, many older

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<v Speaker 1>people do start to experience kind of lapses in memory,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, struggling with judgment and things like that, and

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<v Speaker 1>just kind of overall cognitive decline.

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<v Speaker 2>People may develop cognitive decline in dementia due to a

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<v Speaker 2>variety of factors, including genetics and lifestyle choices, but age

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<v Speaker 2>is the strongest known risk factor, with research showing that

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<v Speaker 2>the risk of developing dementia rises after sixty five. In Japan,

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<v Speaker 2>the population of elderly with cognitive decline is growing fast,

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<v Speaker 2>and Alice says there are big financial risks associated with

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<v Speaker 2>what some are calling dementia money.

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<v Speaker 1>I've heard stories of seniors with dementia or kind of

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<v Speaker 1>cognitive issues, for example, suddenly donating huge amounts to charities

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<v Speaker 1>that they love, or you know, buying into into schemes

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<v Speaker 1>that it's not necessarily scamming, but it's sort of just

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps what one would describe as ill advised spending. It

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<v Speaker 1>can also creep in in ways like missed bill payments

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<v Speaker 1>that obviously affects credit scores, and then kind of on

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<v Speaker 1>a bigger scale, you know, obviously fraud is a huge problem.

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<v Speaker 1>We know that in Japan over sixty percent of financial

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<v Speaker 1>scams in twenty twenty four were targeted at over sixty fives,

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<v Speaker 1>which is pretty staggering. The older population is seen as

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<v Speaker 1>more vulnerable to this, and of course that's only exacerbated

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<v Speaker 1>if you have dementia or some you know, cognitive issues.

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<v Speaker 2>Financial firms can freeze accounts or place limits and restrictions

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<v Speaker 2>on them if they identify what they considered to be

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<v Speaker 2>erratic spending patterns. Research from Tokyo's Kale University shows that

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<v Speaker 2>about eleven percent of adult children who take over their

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<v Speaker 2>elderly parents' finances have found those accounts frozen.

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<v Speaker 1>In terms of how they're actually implemented these freezes, it

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<v Speaker 1>really does vary from sort of company to company and

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<v Speaker 1>from bank to bank. One of the firms that we

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<v Speaker 1>spoke to said that their staff make annual visits to

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<v Speaker 1>clients who are aged over seventy five instead of judges

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<v Speaker 1>their cognitive ability is now. Of course, you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>most of the cases these sort of securities firms employees

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<v Speaker 1>they don't have a medical background, and instead of having

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<v Speaker 1>to just use their best judgment, obviously one would assume

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<v Speaker 1>with the client's best interests, you know, at heart, but

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<v Speaker 1>it is a very difficult judgment.

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<v Speaker 2>Called money in a frozen account can't be stolen by

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<v Speaker 2>a scammer or squandered by an older person who might

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<v Speaker 2>not understand how they're spending. But it can't be accessed

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<v Speaker 2>by the account holder's children either, and that's a problem.

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<v Speaker 2>They might need that money to pay for their parents' care,

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<v Speaker 2>and if they can't access it, they might end up

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<v Speaker 2>paying for that care themselves. The accounts can be unfrozen,

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<v Speaker 2>but that can be a long bureaucratic process, and it

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't always happen. In some cases, money in those frozen

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<v Speaker 2>accounts is not claimed at all and ends up in

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<v Speaker 2>the hands of the government.

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<v Speaker 1>So that means that a lot of this money ends

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<v Speaker 1>up doing whether it's in cash piles unde seni as

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<v Speaker 1>mattresses at home, or whether it's sitting in bank accounts.

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<v Speaker 2>Alice says this growing pile of dormant dementia money has

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<v Speaker 2>implications for Japan's economic growth. Japan is struggling to boost

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<v Speaker 2>its economy after decades of deflation. The country needs its

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<v Speaker 2>people to spend that money, not let it sit idle

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<v Speaker 2>in frozen or dormant bank accounts.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the think tanks that I spoke to for

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<v Speaker 1>the story, for example, had this stat that said that

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<v Speaker 1>if the kind of dormant money the over sixties are

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<v Speaker 1>sitting on, if only zero point two percent of that

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<v Speaker 1>money was actually actively spent, it could boost GDP by

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<v Speaker 1>one percent.

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<v Speaker 2>There's an irony here. Some banks are worried that their

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<v Speaker 2>older customers might be taking too many risks with their money.

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<v Speaker 2>Some corporations, on the other hand, are concerned that their

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<v Speaker 2>older investors might not be taking on enough risk. Forty

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<v Speaker 2>two percent of retail investors in Japan or over sixty.

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<v Speaker 2>Alice says if those people become too risk averse as

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<v Speaker 2>the age, that could affect a company's liquidity and even

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<v Speaker 2>its corporate strategy.

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<v Speaker 1>If a big chunk of your shareholders, for example, have

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<v Speaker 1>dementia or are either unable or unwilling to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>actively use their shareholding rights, that can get in the

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<v Speaker 1>way of acquisition deals, That can get in the way

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<v Speaker 1>of things like corporate governance decisions.

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<v Speaker 2>She says, it's becoming a big issue for family owned companies.

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<v Speaker 2>More than ninety percent of businesses in Japan are family owned,

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<v Speaker 2>and over half of companies are run by people aged

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<v Speaker 2>sixty and older. This all adds up to a looming

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<v Speaker 2>issue for corporate Japan.

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<v Speaker 1>For example, if the founder is still the majority shareholder

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<v Speaker 1>but maybe has dementia or is just aging and is

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<v Speaker 1>unable to use those shareholder rights. M and A deals

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<v Speaker 1>have been collapsing. You know, you can't even do something

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<v Speaker 1>as simple, for example, as appointing a new board member

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<v Speaker 1>if you can't get a majority shareholder approval. And of

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<v Speaker 1>course this is all happening against the backdrop of Japan

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<v Speaker 1>trying to push forward with corporate governance with better capital efficiency.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got an M and A boom that's continuing here

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<v Speaker 1>and is expected to boom even more in twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 1>So this kind of is I think a real tangible

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<v Speaker 1>risk and that will start to have I think a

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<v Speaker 1>rippling effect across the markets and across lots of different

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<v Speaker 1>asset classes.

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<v Speaker 2>What is Japan's government doing to protect its aging investors

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<v Speaker 2>and how does it plan to tap into those dormant

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<v Speaker 2>trillions that's after the break. Japan's population is aging faster

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<v Speaker 2>than any other in the world, and the number of

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<v Speaker 2>Japanese people with dementia is growing fast too. That makes

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<v Speaker 2>the problems that with having assets controlled by people living

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<v Speaker 2>with cognitive issues hard to ignore. Luombrig's Alice French says

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<v Speaker 2>that Japanese government is taking action that includes reviewing Japan's

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<v Speaker 2>guardianship law. Similar to power of attorney in the US.

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<v Speaker 2>The law allows family members to take legal control of

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<v Speaker 2>a relative's finances if dementia sets in.

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<v Speaker 1>Only around five percent of dementia suffers in Japan right

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<v Speaker 1>now are using that system, and the government would like

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<v Speaker 1>to boost that now. It seems that one of the

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<v Speaker 1>main reasons that people are a little bit wary of

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<v Speaker 1>using the system right now is that once you're in it,

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<v Speaker 1>once you sign on for this guardianship system, you can't

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<v Speaker 1>get out. That does kind of put off some people

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<v Speaker 1>who might, for example, change their mind. So the government

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<v Speaker 1>is looking at the possibility of bringing in that option

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<v Speaker 1>that you could withdraw at a later stage once you're

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<v Speaker 1>in it, and they hope that that kind of new

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<v Speaker 1>level of flexibility will bring more people into the guardianship system.

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<v Speaker 2>Alice says the committee reviewing changes to the existing law

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<v Speaker 2>could propose amendments as soon as this year, but it

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<v Speaker 2>could take years for those changes to take effect. Until then,

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<v Speaker 2>banks and securities firms are coming up with their own

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<v Speaker 2>solutions to ensure that their elderly clients' assets are protected,

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<v Speaker 2>and some older people alert to their circumstances are working

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<v Speaker 2>with them. Chizuko and Mi, who we met at the

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<v Speaker 2>beginning of this episode, had a frank conversation about Chizuko's

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<v Speaker 2>financial situation. They decided that Chizuko would make My a

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<v Speaker 2>guardian of a special family support account offered by a

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<v Speaker 2>local securities firm. Now, if Chizuko is unable to manage

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<v Speaker 2>her finances, My can make decisions on her behalf.

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<v Speaker 1>I think in many ways, this Moldota couple were kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a best case scenario, and the challenge here is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of scaling them to be the majority. The sense

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<v Speaker 1>that I've got for sure is that the finance industry

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<v Speaker 1>is rarely kind of out the forefront of sort of

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<v Speaker 1>this issue forwards and raising the awareness. So Ima Murdo,

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<v Speaker 1>who I spoke about, which physical uses, they were very

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<v Speaker 1>frank with us, you know. They were telling us that

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<v Speaker 1>they've seen a spike in in fraud and scams, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>amongst their elderly clients, and they really want to kind

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<v Speaker 1>of crack down on that because it's a risk for

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<v Speaker 1>them too, and in recent years, they have started, like

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<v Speaker 1>I say, bringing in these kind of solutions for their

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<v Speaker 1>senior clients so that they can manage their assets alongside

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<v Speaker 1>a younger family member. So these family support accounts are

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<v Speaker 1>kind of gaining traction. There's another company called Kagawa, which

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<v Speaker 1>is on Hikoku, one of the sort of more southern

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<v Speaker 1>islands of Japan, which has brought in a similar system

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:44.560
<v Speaker 1>just in the last set of eighteen months or so

0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:47.559
<v Speaker 1>and has said that they've been surprised by the amount

0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:51.200
<v Speaker 1>of demand. The steps are gradual and small at this stage,

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 1>but there's definitely a sense that momentum is building.

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.120
<v Speaker 2>And companies are beginning to look for ways around the

0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:01.320
<v Speaker 2>issues that come with having too many older shareholders. Japanese

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:05.679
<v Speaker 2>telecoms provider MTT found in twenty twenty three that almost

0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.520
<v Speaker 2>half of its shareholders were aged over seventy. The company

0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 2>solved the problem with the stock split, which had the

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.400
<v Speaker 2>effect of diversifying the age of its shareholders.

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:19.000
<v Speaker 1>So NTT, for example, did a twenty five for one

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 1>stock split in mid twenty twenty three, and they've now

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 1>seen the proportion of over seventies among their shareholders down

0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:29.280
<v Speaker 1>below twenty percent. So in that sense, it was pretty effective, right,

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and we've seen stock splits kind of shooting up over

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 1>the past few years. There are lots of reasons for it.

0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.680
<v Speaker 1>It's partly because of the sort of corporate governance drive

0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>and the drive for better shareholder returns. Of course, if

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 1>you can attract younger shareholders, they'll hold your stock for longer.

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:47.160
<v Speaker 2>But Alice says, one of the biggest challenges is the

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.400
<v Speaker 2>lack of awareness of this looming financial dilemma.

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 1>It is quite a taboo topic and it's one of

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 1>the biggest challenges that we found actually in trying to

0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 1>report on this theme, right, is that a lot of

0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 1>people don't really want to talk about it. It is

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.320
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a touchy subject. And I think that's

0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>not just in Japan. I think all across the world.

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Part of the problem is almost a kind of unwillingness

0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 1>to want to confront your own weaknesses. We know that,

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 1>you know a lot of market players across the world

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.120
<v Speaker 1>obviously fall into the over sixty five category, and nobody

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of wants to think that they might not be making,

0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, the best financial decisions on the day to day.

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:25.240
<v Speaker 1>So I think there is definitely that resistance there to

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.440
<v Speaker 1>kind of confront the reality people don't necessarily want to

0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:31.800
<v Speaker 1>think of themselves potentially losing independence in the ability to

0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:35.440
<v Speaker 1>handle things by themselves and having to rely on their kids.

0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:41.360
<v Speaker 2>That's if they have children to rely on. More seniors

0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 2>are living alone in Japan. A government study estimates that

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.720
<v Speaker 2>by twenty fifty, as many as twenty percent of Japanese

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 2>households could be occupied by elderly people living alone and

0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 2>potentially handling their finances without any support. That means the

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 2>burden would all tutimately fall on the government and the

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:09.000
<v Speaker 2>financial industry. Japan is working hard to find solutions, and

0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:13.040
<v Speaker 2>the world is paying close attention. That's because dementia and

0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.640
<v Speaker 2>cognitive decline are beginning to take a toll on economies

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.040
<v Speaker 2>across the world.

0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 1>In the US, around six trillion dollars could be owned

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 1>by dementia sufferers in the States right now. Now, that

0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.880
<v Speaker 1>is not a number to sniff at, and obviously that's

0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.000
<v Speaker 1>something that again is only going to grow as the

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:34.520
<v Speaker 1>population continues to age. South Korea, another Asian nation that

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:38.280
<v Speaker 1>is often in the headlines for its aging population, over

0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:42.080
<v Speaker 1>one hundred billion dollars held by dementia sufferers a lot

0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 1>of that in illiquid real estate.

0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 2>There's a lot of talk about the rising tide of

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:51.440
<v Speaker 2>dementia in Japan's population, and a lot of worry about

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 2>the knock on effect that this dementia money is having

0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 2>on economic growth. But Alice says she's not seeing much

0:16:58.400 --> 0:16:59.640
<v Speaker 2>in the way of solutions.

0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:03.520
<v Speaker 1>I think for me, what surprised me, or I suppose

0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:06.960
<v Speaker 1>worried me the most, was kind of how haphazard the

0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:11.080
<v Speaker 1>solutions are at this stage. So for the financial industry,

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>they are desperately trying to get a handle on a

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 1>problem that I think has somewhat crept up on them.

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:19.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, there is no overarching playbook about how to

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.119
<v Speaker 1>deal with this. The pace of aging in Japan is

0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.359
<v Speaker 1>so fast, and I think a lot of people didn't

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>really think about the risks that will then come with

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:38.480
<v Speaker 1>that from the financial side.

0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:49.360
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.

0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.760
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0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.840
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0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:01.480
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0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:04.920
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