WEBVTT - US Ambassador to Syria James Jeffrey Talks Middle East And Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. I'm Joe Matthew and

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<v Speaker 1>Washington Led. You're with us here on balance of power.

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<v Speaker 1>There's still an Iranian proxy group that is on the

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<v Speaker 1>attack against Israel. It's an important story that we want

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<v Speaker 1>to get to here, and one that hits the terminal

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<v Speaker 1>with the headline Israel hits back at Houthi's in Yemen

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<v Speaker 1>after their slow escalation. This is something that may not

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<v Speaker 1>have been on your radar over the holiday, but Houthis

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<v Speaker 1>have been shelling Israel from two thousand kilometers away and

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<v Speaker 1>Israel is now responding airstrikes that we can confirm hit

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<v Speaker 1>rebel targets in the capital of Sana, including the airport

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<v Speaker 1>and a power station. And it's the capital of Yemen,

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<v Speaker 1>and something that we want to talk about with former

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<v Speaker 1>Ambassador James Jeffrey back with us here on the broadcast,

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<v Speaker 1>former US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, now sure of

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<v Speaker 1>the Wilson Center Middle East Program. Mister ambassador, it's great

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<v Speaker 1>to see you here. Is this just noise or the

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<v Speaker 1>start of something new?

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<v Speaker 2>Joe, thanks for having me on. And this is a

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<v Speaker 2>continuation of what has been a region wide walk between

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<v Speaker 2>Irean and its various proxies and allies. The h group

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<v Speaker 2>you can call them, Hamas Isbela, the Hoodies against Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>a reluctant but extremely important supporter of the United States,

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<v Speaker 2>and bits and pieces of other Arab states and Europeans,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly against the Hooties. The last man standing, so to speak,

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<v Speaker 2>right now, is the Hoodies. Irean has lost its missile deterrent.

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<v Speaker 2>The Israelis handled it well and struck back. Hods has

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<v Speaker 2>excuse me, sued for a ceasefire. Hamas is all that

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<v Speaker 2>wiped out, But the Israelis and the international community still

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<v Speaker 2>is having to deal with the Hoodies. Besides shelling Israel

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<v Speaker 2>with these long range ballistic missiles are also shutting down

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<v Speaker 2>international seat traffic and the rid Sea. This has a

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<v Speaker 2>significant impact on everything.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we've talked about the impacts on shipping quite a

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<v Speaker 1>bit here, Ambassador, and I know that there were greater

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<v Speaker 1>concerns a couple of months ago. As attention returns to

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<v Speaker 1>Hoho thi's now the impact on shipping and of course

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<v Speaker 1>the attacks against Israel. Is this going to be the

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<v Speaker 1>last piece to fall? Can Israel cut off this group

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<v Speaker 1>from Iran?

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<v Speaker 2>The Hoodies have been very, very hard to shut down.

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<v Speaker 2>The United States tried half heartedly, basically by intercepting missiles

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<v Speaker 2>fight at ships, but that wasn't successful in the Rid Sea,

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<v Speaker 2>and it certainly hasn't deterred them. Israel can take out capabilities,

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<v Speaker 2>but as long as the Hoodies can get additional supplies

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<v Speaker 2>from Arian, particularly missile components, now they can keep this up.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel has to weigh a decision whether to hold Iran

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<v Speaker 2>responsible for what one of its proxies is doing. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that Israel will eventually decide if the Hoodies don't

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<v Speaker 2>shut this thing down, to go after Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>Ambassador, I want to ask you about what's happening in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>where it was a deadly Christmas for some Ukrainians. Russia

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<v Speaker 1>directed more than seventy crews in ballistic missiles and one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred strike drones against the country in Christmas Day, strikes

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<v Speaker 1>on the company's the country's energy infrastructure. We've seen this,

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<v Speaker 1>of course over the past couple of winters. Vlatimer Putin

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<v Speaker 1>is no stranger to using cold as a weapon. What

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<v Speaker 1>are we going to see between now and January twentieth

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald Trump takes office in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>Between now and then we'll see the Russians inching forward

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<v Speaker 2>and I underline inching forward. On the ground, they're not

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<v Speaker 2>doing all of that well, although they have superior human

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<v Speaker 2>and material resources, and continuing to strike sensitive pots of

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<v Speaker 2>the Ukrainian infrastructure such as electricity, But none of this

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<v Speaker 2>is going to change the outcome of the war. It

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<v Speaker 2>is basically a steelmate. It is calling out for some

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<v Speaker 2>kind of negotiation to try to freeze this conflict and

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<v Speaker 2>bring this part of the world back to something like normal.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think that some of what you're seeing is

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<v Speaker 2>last minute pushing back and forth. The Russians believe that

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump is going to push hard for some kind

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<v Speaker 2>of settlement.

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<v Speaker 1>He sure says he will. In that world, do you

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<v Speaker 1>freeze the map where it is now? Does Ukraine lose

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<v Speaker 1>the ground permanently that it has lost to Russia in

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<v Speaker 1>this war?

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<v Speaker 2>The best example that I can cite historically is the

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<v Speaker 2>Korean War. We ended it with a steelmate nineteen fifty three.

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<v Speaker 2>The steemate is still holding. South Korea never gave up

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<v Speaker 2>its claim to those parts of Korea that are held

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<v Speaker 2>by now the Kim Yonglin North Korean Communist regime legally,

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<v Speaker 2>but in practical terms there, I'm trying to take it back,

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<v Speaker 2>and the American security commitment is only to those parts

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<v Speaker 2>of Korea that the South Korean government controls. I imagine

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<v Speaker 2>whatever we get in the end will begin with something

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<v Speaker 2>like that. There'll be other issues concerning Russia and it's

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<v Speaker 2>near abroad, NATO and how the basic major pillars of

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<v Speaker 2>security in Europe are rearranged. But at the center of

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<v Speaker 2>it will have to be some settlement in Ukraine that

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<v Speaker 2>basically will freeze the conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>There's been some disturbing reports that I'm sure you have

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<v Speaker 1>heard about this Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft that crashed in Kazakhstan.

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<v Speaker 1>Reports suggest that Russia Russia anti aircraft fire may have

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<v Speaker 1>been the reason ambassador why that airplane went down. They've

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<v Speaker 1>looked at damage to the aircraft. They've looked at footage

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<v Speaker 1>of the crash. If this ends up being true, what

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<v Speaker 1>should happen to Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the problem is we have condemned Russia in so

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<v Speaker 2>many ways. We have imposed so many sanctions on Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>A Malaysian airplane full of holiday travelers from the Netherlands

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<v Speaker 2>was shot down in twenty fourteen. By it turns out

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<v Speaker 2>Russian anti aircraft. This is nothing new. What's particularly troubling

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<v Speaker 2>is it looks like after the plane was hit, it

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<v Speaker 2>tried to make an emergency landing on Russian territory and

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<v Speaker 2>it was told to overfly the Caspian Sea to land

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<v Speaker 2>in Kazakhstan. It actually almost made it, but clearly the

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<v Speaker 2>intent was for it to crash at sea without any evidence.

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<v Speaker 1>What should be the US posture on this?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, again, the US has already condemned Russia from here

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<v Speaker 2>to Sunday for its invasion of Ukraine and many other actions.

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<v Speaker 2>This is simply another example of the behavior that everyone,

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<v Speaker 2>including the new Trump administration, will have to recognize is

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<v Speaker 2>unacceptable and needs to have a very strong response. Right now,

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<v Speaker 2>we have a response, which is to stop the Russians

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<v Speaker 2>and not Ukraine. You saw we basically stop the Russians

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<v Speaker 2>in Syria and they're now all but out.

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<v Speaker 1>Ambassador Jeffrey, we're hearing Donald Trump talk about the Panama Canal.

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<v Speaker 1>He wants the US to have control over the canal

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<v Speaker 1>once again, I guess, unless a new deal can be

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<v Speaker 1>made with Panama. He wants to take Greenland into the Fold,

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<v Speaker 1>which we've been hearing about as well. And I know

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<v Speaker 1>that both of these might be with regard to Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>influence around the globe. But as someone who actually worked

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<v Speaker 1>as a diplomat in the first Trump administration, you were

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<v Speaker 1>Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Special Envoy to the Global

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<v Speaker 1>Coalition to Defeat isis what is it like to be

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<v Speaker 1>a diplomat under a Trump administration without always knowing what

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<v Speaker 1>the go forward is going to be when you get

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<v Speaker 1>on an airplane to go talk with some one abroad.

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<v Speaker 2>It has its charms and it has its disadvantages as well.

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<v Speaker 2>One thing is that people take Donald Trump very seriously.

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<v Speaker 2>They saw what happened to cost some solimione.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>Believe me. However much Americans may or may not have responded,

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<v Speaker 2>dictate us out that picture of a bleeding Trump pumping

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<v Speaker 2>his fist into the sky after he was shot, and

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<v Speaker 2>they see it as somebody they don't want to mess with.

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<v Speaker 2>That's actually good if you're covering our diplomatic instructions. The

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<v Speaker 2>problem is the instructions often change, but the underlying policies

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<v Speaker 2>usually do not. That I'm wandering stressed. Trump tries to

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<v Speaker 2>get headlines, He tries to shock people, He tries to

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<v Speaker 2>shake things up, But in the end we were carrying

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<v Speaker 2>out policies not all of that different from those that

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<v Speaker 2>the Biden administration continued to its credit.

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<v Speaker 1>How about that in our remaining moment, then do you

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<v Speaker 1>take him seriously on Greenland and Panama?

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<v Speaker 2>I take seriously that he wants a farm or a

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<v Speaker 2>sort of United States that will push transactionally for its

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<v Speaker 2>advantage around the world, and everybody needs to be unnice

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<v Speaker 2>for that. And there's nothing like threatening to seize Panama

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<v Speaker 2>or seize Greenland to get people unnoticed. But no, neither

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<v Speaker 2>of these things are going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>From someone who knows James Jeffrey is great to see

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<v Speaker 1>you here. I hope you had a great Christmas and

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<v Speaker 1>happy New Year to you. The former Ambassador James Jeffrey

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<v Speaker 1>former US Ambassador to Iraq in Turkey. He's now chair

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<v Speaker 1>of the Wilson Center Middle East Program