Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. I'm Joe Matthew and
Speaker 1: Washington Led. You're with us here on balance of power.
Speaker 1: There's still an Iranian proxy group that is on the
Speaker 1: attack against Israel. It's an important story that we want
Speaker 1: to get to here, and one that hits the terminal
Speaker 1: with the headline Israel hits back at Houthi's in Yemen
Speaker 1: after their slow escalation. This is something that may not
Speaker 1: have been on your radar over the holiday, but Houthis
Speaker 1: have been shelling Israel from two thousand kilometers away and
Speaker 1: Israel is now responding airstrikes that we can confirm hit
Speaker 1: rebel targets in the capital of Sana, including the airport
Speaker 1: and a power station. And it's the capital of Yemen,
Speaker 1: and something that we want to talk about with former
Speaker 1: Ambassador James Jeffrey back with us here on the broadcast,
Speaker 1: former US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, now sure of
Speaker 1: the Wilson Center Middle East Program. Mister ambassador, it's great
Speaker 1: to see you here. Is this just noise or the
Speaker 1: start of something new?
Speaker 2: Joe, thanks for having me on. And this is a
Speaker 2: continuation of what has been a region wide walk between
Speaker 2: Irean and its various proxies and allies. The h group
Speaker 2: you can call them, Hamas Isbela, the Hoodies against Israel,
Speaker 2: a reluctant but extremely important supporter of the United States,
Speaker 2: and bits and pieces of other Arab states and Europeans,
Speaker 2: particularly against the Hooties. The last man standing, so to speak,
Speaker 2: right now, is the Hoodies. Irean has lost its missile deterrent.
Speaker 2: The Israelis handled it well and struck back. Hods has
Speaker 2: excuse me, sued for a ceasefire. Hamas is all that
Speaker 2: wiped out, But the Israelis and the international community still
Speaker 2: is having to deal with the Hoodies. Besides shelling Israel
Speaker 2: with these long range ballistic missiles are also shutting down
Speaker 2: international seat traffic and the rid Sea. This has a
Speaker 2: significant impact on everything.
Speaker 1: Well, we've talked about the impacts on shipping quite a
Speaker 1: bit here, Ambassador, and I know that there were greater
Speaker 1: concerns a couple of months ago. As attention returns to
Speaker 1: Hoho thi's now the impact on shipping and of course
Speaker 1: the attacks against Israel. Is this going to be the
Speaker 1: last piece to fall? Can Israel cut off this group
Speaker 1: from Iran?
Speaker 2: The Hoodies have been very, very hard to shut down.
Speaker 2: The United States tried half heartedly, basically by intercepting missiles
Speaker 2: fight at ships, but that wasn't successful in the Rid Sea,
Speaker 2: and it certainly hasn't deterred them. Israel can take out capabilities,
Speaker 2: but as long as the Hoodies can get additional supplies
Speaker 2: from Arian, particularly missile components, now they can keep this up.
Speaker 2: Israel has to weigh a decision whether to hold Iran
Speaker 2: responsible for what one of its proxies is doing. I
Speaker 2: think that Israel will eventually decide if the Hoodies don't
Speaker 2: shut this thing down, to go after Iran.
Speaker 1: Ambassador, I want to ask you about what's happening in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: where it was a deadly Christmas for some Ukrainians. Russia
Speaker 1: directed more than seventy crews in ballistic missiles and one
Speaker 1: hundred strike drones against the country in Christmas Day, strikes
Speaker 1: on the company's the country's energy infrastructure. We've seen this,
Speaker 1: of course over the past couple of winters. Vlatimer Putin
Speaker 1: is no stranger to using cold as a weapon. What
Speaker 1: are we going to see between now and January twentieth
Speaker 1: McDonald Trump takes office in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Between now and then we'll see the Russians inching forward
Speaker 2: and I underline inching forward. On the ground, they're not
Speaker 2: doing all of that well, although they have superior human
Speaker 2: and material resources, and continuing to strike sensitive pots of
Speaker 2: the Ukrainian infrastructure such as electricity, But none of this
Speaker 2: is going to change the outcome of the war. It
Speaker 2: is basically a steelmate. It is calling out for some
Speaker 2: kind of negotiation to try to freeze this conflict and
Speaker 2: bring this part of the world back to something like normal.
Speaker 2: So I think that some of what you're seeing is
Speaker 2: last minute pushing back and forth. The Russians believe that
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is going to push hard for some kind
Speaker 2: of settlement.
Speaker 1: He sure says he will. In that world, do you
Speaker 1: freeze the map where it is now? Does Ukraine lose
Speaker 1: the ground permanently that it has lost to Russia in
Speaker 1: this war?
Speaker 2: The best example that I can cite historically is the
Speaker 2: Korean War. We ended it with a steelmate nineteen fifty three.
Speaker 2: The steemate is still holding. South Korea never gave up
Speaker 2: its claim to those parts of Korea that are held
Speaker 2: by now the Kim Yonglin North Korean Communist regime legally,
Speaker 2: but in practical terms there, I'm trying to take it back,
Speaker 2: and the American security commitment is only to those parts
Speaker 2: of Korea that the South Korean government controls. I imagine
Speaker 2: whatever we get in the end will begin with something
Speaker 2: like that. There'll be other issues concerning Russia and it's
Speaker 2: near abroad, NATO and how the basic major pillars of
Speaker 2: security in Europe are rearranged. But at the center of
Speaker 2: it will have to be some settlement in Ukraine that
Speaker 2: basically will freeze the conflict.
Speaker 1: There's been some disturbing reports that I'm sure you have
Speaker 1: heard about this Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft that crashed in Kazakhstan.
Speaker 1: Reports suggest that Russia Russia anti aircraft fire may have
Speaker 1: been the reason ambassador why that airplane went down. They've
Speaker 1: looked at damage to the aircraft. They've looked at footage
Speaker 1: of the crash. If this ends up being true, what
Speaker 1: should happen to Russia.
Speaker 2: Well, the problem is we have condemned Russia in so
Speaker 2: many ways. We have imposed so many sanctions on Russia.
Speaker 2: A Malaysian airplane full of holiday travelers from the Netherlands
Speaker 2: was shot down in twenty fourteen. By it turns out
Speaker 2: Russian anti aircraft. This is nothing new. What's particularly troubling
Speaker 2: is it looks like after the plane was hit, it
Speaker 2: tried to make an emergency landing on Russian territory and
Speaker 2: it was told to overfly the Caspian Sea to land
Speaker 2: in Kazakhstan. It actually almost made it, but clearly the
Speaker 2: intent was for it to crash at sea without any evidence.
Speaker 1: What should be the US posture on this?
Speaker 2: Well, again, the US has already condemned Russia from here
Speaker 2: to Sunday for its invasion of Ukraine and many other actions.
Speaker 2: This is simply another example of the behavior that everyone,
Speaker 2: including the new Trump administration, will have to recognize is
Speaker 2: unacceptable and needs to have a very strong response. Right now,
Speaker 2: we have a response, which is to stop the Russians
Speaker 2: and not Ukraine. You saw we basically stop the Russians
Speaker 2: in Syria and they're now all but out.
Speaker 1: Ambassador Jeffrey, we're hearing Donald Trump talk about the Panama Canal.
Speaker 1: He wants the US to have control over the canal
Speaker 1: once again, I guess, unless a new deal can be
Speaker 1: made with Panama. He wants to take Greenland into the Fold,
Speaker 1: which we've been hearing about as well. And I know
Speaker 1: that both of these might be with regard to Chinese
Speaker 1: influence around the globe. But as someone who actually worked
Speaker 1: as a diplomat in the first Trump administration, you were
Speaker 1: Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Special Envoy to the Global
Speaker 1: Coalition to Defeat isis what is it like to be
Speaker 1: a diplomat under a Trump administration without always knowing what
Speaker 1: the go forward is going to be when you get
Speaker 1: on an airplane to go talk with some one abroad.
Speaker 2: It has its charms and it has its disadvantages as well.
Speaker 2: One thing is that people take Donald Trump very seriously.
Speaker 2: They saw what happened to cost some solimione.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: Believe me. However much Americans may or may not have responded,
Speaker 2: dictate us out that picture of a bleeding Trump pumping
Speaker 2: his fist into the sky after he was shot, and
Speaker 2: they see it as somebody they don't want to mess with.
Speaker 2: That's actually good if you're covering our diplomatic instructions. The
Speaker 2: problem is the instructions often change, but the underlying policies
Speaker 2: usually do not. That I'm wandering stressed. Trump tries to
Speaker 2: get headlines, He tries to shock people, He tries to
Speaker 2: shake things up, But in the end we were carrying
Speaker 2: out policies not all of that different from those that
Speaker 2: the Biden administration continued to its credit.
Speaker 1: How about that in our remaining moment, then do you
Speaker 1: take him seriously on Greenland and Panama?
Speaker 2: I take seriously that he wants a farm or a
Speaker 2: sort of United States that will push transactionally for its
Speaker 2: advantage around the world, and everybody needs to be unnice
Speaker 2: for that. And there's nothing like threatening to seize Panama
Speaker 2: or seize Greenland to get people unnoticed. But no, neither
Speaker 2: of these things are going to happen.
Speaker 1: From someone who knows James Jeffrey is great to see
Speaker 1: you here. I hope you had a great Christmas and
Speaker 1: happy New Year to you. The former Ambassador James Jeffrey
Speaker 1: former US Ambassador to Iraq in Turkey. He's now chair
Speaker 1: of the Wilson Center Middle East Program