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Speaker 1: Subverted Down is a fantasy analyst who's known for a

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Speaker 1: statistical analysis around streaming various positions in fantasy football. He

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Speaker 1: owns and operates subvertedown dot com. He's a frequent Reddit contributor.

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Speaker 1: He's got more models, and I have bad dad jokes.

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Speaker 1: And this is actually the first time he's ever hopped

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Speaker 1: on a podcast. These are his late round perspectives. I

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Speaker 1: just saw that this is that that you're not feeling

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent that uh oh yeah, this is like.

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Speaker 2: Well, I don't know that flu or covid or covid

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Speaker 2: flu whatever going around. Yeah, I don't know, but but

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Speaker 2: I trust you're going to bring me through this, all right.

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Speaker 2: You know, I.

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Speaker 3: Appreciate that, man, I appreciate that. I do.

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Speaker 2: I gotta what's that The only prescription is more JJ Yeah,

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Speaker 2: there you go, There you go.

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Speaker 1: I did want to, uh to kick off today's show

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Speaker 1: by sort of talking like, I feel like your your

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Speaker 1: presence online is relatively elusive. It's it's you're you're sort

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Speaker 1: of an enigma at this point where you know you've

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Speaker 1: done so much incredible work. You have an incredible website,

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Speaker 1: you know you've you've built this following via Reddit, shout

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Speaker 1: out Reddit. But let's first talk about like, is this

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Speaker 1: is this your first appearance basically like with Fantasy football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I you brought me out of my basement,

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Speaker 2: I'd say, except I actually deliberately chose the basement because

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Speaker 2: I thought redditors would be disappointed if I didn't go

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Speaker 2: with the proverbial rhetor in the basement cliche. So that's right.

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Speaker 2: But but yeah, no, I thought it was a good chance.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's uh and you know, you sort of

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Speaker 2: sold me on it saying that basically, hey, we're basically

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Speaker 2: going to nerd out, and you know for me, that's

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Speaker 2: that's the safe space, so you know, pull me out

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Speaker 2: of my shell.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. Yeah, it's it's it's awesome.

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Speaker 1: And I also want so so you go by Subverted down.

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Speaker 1: How did that all come about? Like even just the

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Speaker 1: naming convention and you coming up with that name to

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Speaker 1: be as your alias essentially?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish it was more exciting in a way,

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Speaker 2: but you know, because when you're choosing your first log

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Speaker 2: in name, you know, you've got that moment like okay,

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Speaker 2: I got to get going. So it was a little

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Speaker 2: bit fast, but I you know, sub was you know,

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Speaker 2: a subreddit was a new term to me, and I thought,

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Speaker 2: oh love, what with that? And I thought subverb, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to sort of disrupt what's going on, and

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Speaker 2: you know, think different and all that. And then the

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Speaker 2: you know down, I guess, in a way, had two things.

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Speaker 2: One was obviously a down in football, like so the

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Speaker 2: idea of like you would be trying to you know,

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Speaker 2: trick your way into getting that one extra you know,

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Speaker 2: not not an extra touchdown, but you know, just a down,

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Speaker 2: you know, to get that marginal advantage.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And I'd had a hobby also ten years ago, following

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Speaker 2: a lot of you know, rock music history as it

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Speaker 2: turned out, So I was followed you know, from way

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Speaker 2: back Duke Ellington and everything, and and I was up

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Speaker 2: to a system of a down at the time I

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Speaker 2: was listening to. So I thought, okay, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: whatever makes sense, has nothing to do with it at all,

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Speaker 2: but basically, and then I kept it with you know,

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Speaker 2: there was this debate about the website like stay like that,

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Speaker 2: and then we decided, you know, it kind of fits still,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't roll off the tongue. So that's the I

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Speaker 2: think the bigger problem.

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Speaker 3: I like it. I like it.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because I got my start and

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Speaker 1: some people don't like. I mean, I would assume a

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Speaker 1: lot of people don't even realize this, but like my

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Speaker 1: handle on Twitter is Late Round QB, and you know,

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Speaker 1: my Reddit handle is late Round QB.

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Speaker 3: And the brand.

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Speaker 1: That I now run in the business I now run

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Speaker 1: is Late Round Fantasy Football. And that all started because

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Speaker 1: in twenty twelve, I wrote an ebook called The Late

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Speaker 1: Round Quarterback. Because this is back when like people were

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Speaker 1: drafted quarterbacks in the first round and second round and

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Speaker 1: stuff like that. And again, I like, similar to you,

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Speaker 1: I wanted to disrupt write and come up with something

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Speaker 1: that was different than what was out there, and I

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Speaker 1: wrote an e book. And this is when ebooks were

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Speaker 1: not like super ever. I mean now every like there's

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Speaker 1: e books just everywhere, and you know, it's just a

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Speaker 1: different time. But I just used the Late Round moniker

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Speaker 1: essentially and just a lot carried it throughout my career

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Speaker 1: and so I can appreciate, you know, a little, a

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Speaker 1: little alias. I mean, like Matthew Berry has talented mister

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Speaker 1: like TMR, Like people might not even realize that that's

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Speaker 1: from something else that's just not some random letters that

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Speaker 1: are out there.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a pretty much you know, feel free

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Speaker 2: to go with subvert that's fine, or you know, sub whatever.

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Speaker 2: Do you want to go old school so b D

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Speaker 2: or something. People don't do that, but whatever, whatever it goes.

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Speaker 2: People use a lot of different things on Reddit.

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Speaker 1: Well let's let's talk about Reddit, and let's talk about

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Speaker 1: your sort of journey and doing what you're doing. You know, again,

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Speaker 1: this is a different platform for you, you know, versus

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Speaker 1: what you've typically been doing with Reddit. So there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be people that naturally don't know your backstory, and you know,

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Speaker 1: not to downplay what other people have done who have

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Speaker 1: come on perspectives, but I think yours is the most

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Speaker 1: unique or one of the more unique of someone who

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Speaker 1: has been on this show, just because you know, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are to be fair, like Andrew Cooper,

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Speaker 1: for instance, who's very active on Reddit. He did start

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Speaker 1: you know, his his career. Coop did VA read it?

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Speaker 1: But I just think your story is really really interesting,

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Speaker 1: so talk through it and how you got into this

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Speaker 1: thing in the first place.

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Speaker 2: No, it wasn't. It was definitely not straightforward as I

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Speaker 2: as I see as some others go, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: come from other industries. My background is really diverse across

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Speaker 2: different stuff. So I was just starting to basically and

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Speaker 2: involve myself with the forum and read what's going on,

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Speaker 2: and uh, and I guess I really started to think about,

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Speaker 2: you know, trying my hand at this, because I think

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Speaker 2: everyone can associate with this. Things just weren't going good.

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Speaker 2: I was, I was streaming, I was following another noticerespect

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Speaker 2: there was another you know, great guy before me who

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Speaker 2: was doing some DST stuff, was well known, but for

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Speaker 2: whatever reason, it just wasn't working for me. Every week

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Speaker 2: seemed and I know that's you know, by the way,

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Speaker 2: there's a fraction, there's a percentage of people out there

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Speaker 2: who think the same exactly about me right now, Like

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Speaker 2: they're like I picked the bust every single week, Like

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Speaker 2: statistically that has to happen, right, So, like there's someone

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Speaker 2: out there, so I but I think my thought was

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Speaker 2: that there were a few things I thought were missing

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Speaker 2: and wanted to bring and create. One of them was

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Speaker 2: being a bit transparent about the methodology, like trying to

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Speaker 2: find out what are the assumptions going into this, you know,

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Speaker 2: everything I do, I would sum up as trying to

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Speaker 2: bring a like rational I think the people who follow

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Speaker 2: my stuff would say they're looking for a rational view

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Speaker 2: of making decisions based on data and stuff. So I

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Speaker 2: think that would you know, mesh a lot with your

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Speaker 2: point of view as well. So and then so I

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Speaker 2: wanted to bring that very heavy data based, you know,

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Speaker 2: fatual effort. And also I wanted to see, like do

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Speaker 2: these people don't care about the accuracy. The accuracy is

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Speaker 2: a big thing for me. I spend a lot of

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Speaker 2: time following my own accuracy, comparing it against others and

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Speaker 2: sharing it and saying, you know, and I try to

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Speaker 2: put an effort saying like people, this is an exceptionally

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Speaker 2: good year or an exceptionally bad year, like to you know,

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Speaker 2: sort of gaye like don't feel bad if things are

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Speaker 2: not going your way, but you know, or things up

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Speaker 2: or down. So I think it was, oh yeah, the

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Speaker 2: other element I really wanted to bring with strategy. So besides,

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Speaker 2: you know, just like having a very good statistically sound model.

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Speaker 2: I can talk more about models, oh well, and looking

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Speaker 2: at accuracy, but the whole idea of using this first strategy,

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Speaker 2: I wanted to plan future weeks as well. I hated

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Speaker 2: when I would like drop a DST or something and

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Speaker 2: come back next week, and that one was recommended at

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Speaker 2: the top, you know, like let's involve this, And I

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Speaker 2: think that was one of the eventually big things that

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Speaker 2: I added, was trying to give that that look ahead

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Speaker 2: to help people's strategy. And I I feel like it's

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Speaker 2: caught on mores and I see a lot more people

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Speaker 2: doing the look ahead thing on Reddit as well, So

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Speaker 2: those were sort of the yeah, the how it initiated.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's it's funny because obviously.

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Speaker 1: Like you've made i mean, your your bread and butter

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Speaker 1: has been streaming right and it's been it's been you know,

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Speaker 1: with Defense with Kicker, et cetera. And it's funny because

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Speaker 1: one of like, I have another podcast Living the Stream,

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Speaker 1: and that podcast started in like twenty thirteen ish.

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Speaker 3: It's it's sort of.

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Speaker 1: Become its own, like you know, niche kind of show

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Speaker 1: where we're only fifteen minutes of the actual hours talked

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Speaker 1: about fantasy football and the other you know, X number

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Speaker 1: min you know, forty five minutes is me and my

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Speaker 1: my co host Denny Carter talking about just like just

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Speaker 1: that stuff and just you know, random things in life.

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Speaker 1: But but like I too, you know, like there's a

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Speaker 1: few things that you just said that I think is

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Speaker 1: just incredibly important. One of the things is transparency, which

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Speaker 1: I think is one of the most important pieces of

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Speaker 1: being a content creator in this space. I understand this

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Speaker 1: urge for especially like newcomers in fantasy football as and

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Speaker 1: analysts to like not want to be overly transparent and

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Speaker 1: feel like they should only celebrate their victories and not necessarily,

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Speaker 1: you know, talk bad about themselves because they may. But

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Speaker 1: the reality of the situation is that the majority of

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Speaker 1: like you know, coherent and kind and normal people out

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Speaker 1: there who are consuming this content understand that you're going

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Speaker 1: to get stuff wrong and that you're not going to

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Speaker 1: be flawless because there's so much variance in this game, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: there's just it's naturally you're not going to get everything right,

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Speaker 1: and you got to hope that, Like I remember last year,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you remember this or if you

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Speaker 1: had this defense high last year, but last year in

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Speaker 1: the championship, the Colts were a great streaming against the Giants, right,

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Speaker 1: like a really good streaming play, and on paper, everything

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Speaker 1: came together. If that had happened, because the Colts you know,

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Speaker 1: they craped the bed, But if that had happened in

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Speaker 1: Week six, no one would really care that much because

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Speaker 1: that's just a blip, right, But it happened in the

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Speaker 1: most important week of the fantasy season, and so it

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Speaker 1: was a bigger deal than it otherwise would be.

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Speaker 3: And so for me at least, And I think you're

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Speaker 3: kind of alluding to this too.

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Speaker 1: As an analyst, you're trying to just be as right

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Speaker 1: as you can and you're trying to guide people in

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Speaker 1: the right direction as frequently as possible.

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Speaker 3: And then the other thing that you mentioned is.

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Speaker 1: That there's going to be someone out there who thinks

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Speaker 1: that you suck because they use your advice and naturally

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Speaker 1: it was the wrong advice, right. And it's the same

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Speaker 1: thing that I feel about rankings too, Like going into

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Speaker 1: the season, someone could use the exact same set of

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Speaker 1: rankings and literally just draft off of the rankings in

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Speaker 1: the tiers, right, and it just so happens that the

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Speaker 1: way their draft goes down and where they're positioned in

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Speaker 1: their draft, they end up with Brian Thomas and they

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Speaker 1: end up with these guys who end up busting even

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Speaker 1: though the rankings were really great for somebody else, and

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Speaker 1: you're just hoping again as an analyst, that your rankings

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Speaker 1: are helping far more people than they're hurting people right

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Speaker 1: in the end. And I'm assuming that that's kind of

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Speaker 1: like what your general philosophy is as well. And so

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Speaker 1: you started on Reddit, you started doing all this you know,

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Speaker 1: streaming streaming work, and you were writing, I mean, you

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Speaker 1: were doing write ups and such, and then you've moved

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Speaker 1: to other platforms. What has that been like and what

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Speaker 1: have you done there?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Right, well that only came after a bit of evil.

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Speaker 2: I mean, to your point, my very first year was

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Speaker 2: not a good one. I honestly just assumed this was

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Speaker 2: going to be quite easy and that I would be

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Speaker 2: able to deliver a democratized, very simple equation that everyone

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Speaker 2: could just use and hey, guys, look here's the new way.

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Speaker 2: And that didn't happen. So there was an evolution of

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Speaker 2: a lot of work in revising the model. It was

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Speaker 2: after about a year and a half that I think

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Speaker 2: that things really started to click, and it was because

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Speaker 2: I had introduced the correct, proper way of doing actual

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Speaker 2: predictive modeling, which I was hoping it wouldn't have to

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Speaker 2: go that far initially, but it was also a fun journey.

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Speaker 2: So anyway, then it just yeah, the journey. I guess

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Speaker 2: what happened was the reason I eventually switched. The next

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Speaker 2: thing would have been Patreon actually that I went to

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Speaker 2: after Reddit, And that was actually because after a few

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Speaker 2: years things got really intense, like there were a lot

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Speaker 2: of demands on the model. It had not only evolved,

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Speaker 2: I think people really enjoyed the journey. I mean, that's

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Speaker 2: what I like to share. It's like, hey, I made

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Speaker 2: these are the improvements I made. You know, when I

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Speaker 2: do the whole thing about accuracy improvements is I focus

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Speaker 2: on here's what I think I got wrong, and next

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Speaker 2: time I'm going to improve that. So it had been

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Speaker 2: through all that, but there was so much I was

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Speaker 2: so busy because and read it is not the best

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Speaker 2: platform for all the sharing. Like I would make a

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Speaker 2: post on Tuesday and for DSTs, and I would end

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Speaker 2: up like editing it three times a day or something,

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Speaker 2: you know, because the veggus lines would change or somebody

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Speaker 2: would say, hey, now looks like there's snow or something,

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Speaker 2: and oh, what are you doing now about this injury?

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Speaker 2: All this quarterbacks out and so it's like it became

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Speaker 2: like this really exhausting. It consumed a lot of effort

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Speaker 2: to like, it's not I think that's one thing you

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Speaker 2: could also identify with. It's not just like a model,

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Speaker 2: like this simple thing that you put out in the

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Speaker 2: world and it just like runs itself. Yes, this was

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Speaker 2: what I used to think of it, like it's constant maintenance.

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Speaker 2: And I think people will also, So I'm going on

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Speaker 2: a tangent here, So I think people didn't realize on

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Speaker 2: the in the background that like, as the season was

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Speaker 2: going on, I was revising the model, like you know,

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Speaker 2: and it wasn't you know, not because it was bad.

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Speaker 2: I was adding new things to it. I was looking

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Speaker 2: at like I was studying like in the past, like hey,

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Speaker 2: maybe the mid season has different drivers predictive factors, and

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Speaker 2: let's look you know. So I was kind of doing

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Speaker 2: all these like extra studies to sort of increase the accuracy.

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Speaker 2: But anyway, this sharing of it, and they're like constant

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Speaker 2: updating became quite a lot. So I eventually started putting

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Speaker 2: things out on Actually I was was at some point

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Speaker 2: sharing a Google sheets or some like PDF output or

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Speaker 2: something so that people and that and that. Yeah, that

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Speaker 2: that eventually led over to Patreon as well as you

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Speaker 2: alluded to. I've done a lot of studies like and

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Speaker 2: I can just mention the thing I really enjoy doing

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Speaker 2: actually is not the rankings itself. That's that's like a headache.

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Speaker 2: That kind of invites a lot of scrutiny. Yes, yeah,

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Speaker 2: and it's so much effort, you know, it's it's not

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Speaker 2: just for me. I really liked these studies, Like I

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Speaker 2: just did one yesterday that was about should you pair

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Speaker 2: your DST against another player you have if they're opposing teams,

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Speaker 2: so you know, diving into all that like super interesting stuff.

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Speaker 2: But people wanted the rankings. But anyway, I needed a

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Speaker 2: place to sort of catalog all these studies. I felt

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Speaker 2: like Reddit was quite terrible for like being an archive,

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Speaker 2: Like there was no place to like, so I tried

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Speaker 2: to make posts that like summarized where they were. So anyway,

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Speaker 2: Patreon became a thing I originally also, Yeah, it got

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Speaker 2: a bit overburdened and I started, you know, some people

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Speaker 2: think like, oh, he was going there to try to

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Speaker 2: just to earn money or something like that, and that

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Speaker 2: wasn't the story about it. Really. I kind of came

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Speaker 2: to a point where it was so much work, and

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Speaker 2: the you know, the feedback I was getting was not

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Speaker 2: always positive. So I said, okay, either I can you know, stop,

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Speaker 2: I've like come as far as I can. The model's good,

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Speaker 2: it's great, it's things are working, it's got predicted how

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Speaker 2: it's or I should find a way to continue and

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Speaker 2: make it sustainable. Yeah. And I had this idea maybe

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Speaker 2: of a bit of a robin hood you know thing

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Speaker 2: where like my biggest supporters would probably say, yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: really into that stuff and the studies and the like

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Speaker 2: the week's look ahead and all that, I'll subscribe or something,

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Speaker 2: And that was just I Also it was also I

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Speaker 2: guess mixed with the idea of I like to measure,

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Speaker 2: you know, like as by nature. Yeah, this is this

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Speaker 2: something that's actually people like appreciate. So so eventually it

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Speaker 2: moved a lot of the stuff to Patreon for that reason.

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Speaker 2: Patreon itself was not ideal. And that's going.

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Speaker 3: Through that right now too. I feel that yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean I had, first of all, with

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Speaker 2: the subscribers, there was this thing where like you can

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Speaker 2: pause the payments each month, but like so in the

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Speaker 2: off season, I wanted to make sure people weren't paying

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Speaker 2: and I was, and you know, I was just charging

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Speaker 2: like what was it one dollar a month to the

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Speaker 2: lowest It was like, you know, it's like nothing, right,

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Speaker 2: or be three dollars, it was a seven dollars whatever

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Speaker 2: that I had to like remember each month to pose it.

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Speaker 2: And also just the whole thing about the functionality of it,

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Speaker 2: Like if you contrast it now, anyone who used the

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Speaker 2: website see that, Like you can just sort by any column,

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Speaker 2: you can hover over here, you can see the opponent

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Speaker 2: by hovering your mouse. You can see all these like

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Speaker 2: extra barographs and distributions, ranges and all that like, and

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Speaker 2: that basically could never happen the Patreon. But the way

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Speaker 2: it happened, I was lucky enough that I was reached

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Speaker 2: out to by a subscriber actually or a fan who said, hey,

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Speaker 2: I see some potential in this, Like I think that

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Speaker 2: you could really elevate the experience people have from following

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Speaker 2: this stuff by putting it on a website. And of

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Speaker 2: course you never know who you're going to meet on

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Speaker 2: the internet. You can go any which way. But a

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Speaker 2: fantastic guy. I'm so proud of the website right now,

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Speaker 2: the work he's done on it to make it very

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Speaker 2: you know, clean, simple and delivering all the stuff that's

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Speaker 2: to the point. Yeah, So eventually it was basically closing

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Speaker 2: down Patreon for that was one of the reasons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, the website's amazing, it's great, and

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Speaker 1: you have a lot of tools on that site. Can

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Speaker 1: you talk through some of the I mean, that's obviously

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Speaker 1: something that you can't you know, do on a stately

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Speaker 1: Patreon where you're just basically like uploading assets. That's that's

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Speaker 1: essentially what I'm doing on Patreon, you know, with rankings

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Speaker 1: and stuff like that. But what are some of the

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Speaker 1: tools that you're offering to help fantasy managers out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I guess the first one, of course,

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Speaker 2: is the look ahead. I mean that I mentioned before,

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Speaker 2: the strategic idea of viewing weeks ahead, which is one

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Speaker 2: of the trickier parts of the things that I model

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Speaker 2: actually because it means that I need to, okay, in

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Speaker 2: simple terms, I basically need to model future game scores

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Speaker 2: as well. I need to sort of be as good

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Speaker 2: as Bookies and Vegas at predicting what that next game

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Speaker 2: will be. So that's definitely the major aspect. Then there's

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Speaker 2: you know, my the most common question that I always got,

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Speaker 2: and this is what I really wanted to impart to people,

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Speaker 2: was why is that ranking high? Why are the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: low this week or something or whatever it is? And

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Speaker 2: to be able to explain that, Like I could just

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Speaker 2: give away the model and say, oh, yeah, it's two

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Speaker 2: point seven times the past per passing yards per attemptance,

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Speaker 2: like you know, but that's not useful. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: it was changing every year, like you know, the actual

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Speaker 2: with updates. So I think one of the really useful

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Speaker 2: things I wanted to bring to people isn't interpret the

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Speaker 2: model and give the like key reasons what's making this

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Speaker 2: player higher or lower? I also include a big thing

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Speaker 2: for me, like you mentioned the variants, and to me,

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Speaker 2: that is a I've spent a lot of time and

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Speaker 2: by the way, I think I have like twenty articles

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Speaker 2: on my website about there's a category called expectations, like

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Speaker 2: just to tell people like what's normal, what to expect,

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Speaker 2: what you know things are like if you six points

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Speaker 2: less than predicted, is that like reasonable out of the ordinary.

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Speaker 2: So I have you know, risk, I actually model the

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Speaker 2: risk the upside downside, so people can get a feeling

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Speaker 2: if it's a safe bed or not. And I think

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Speaker 2: one of the ones that I hope people are using

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Speaker 2: because it really gets to that point, is this one

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Speaker 2: I created that does similar historical matches. So we make

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Speaker 2: these histograms. You know. It's a separately developed model, actually

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Speaker 2: different from the normal one where I went in and

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Speaker 2: tried to search through history. So it's constant. It's constantly

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Speaker 2: updating each time there's any little change, and it searches

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Speaker 2: through the last fifteen years of games and tries to

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Speaker 2: pick out which one is close. It's based on I mean,

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Speaker 2: I didn't create what is similar, you know, the computer

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Speaker 2: decides what makes it a similar match. Anyway, the point

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Speaker 2: of that is all It actually will display the distribution

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Speaker 2: in the past of how this game has gone, so

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Speaker 2: you can easily see that you know, hey, this game

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Speaker 2: might be leaning, you know, they might be skewed towards

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Speaker 2: lower value, but with some upside where you can see

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Speaker 2: that actually there was like a to remindus eight point

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Speaker 2: range for that particular scenario. And I hope that is

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Speaker 2: adding value for people. I think it really is because

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Speaker 2: a lot of people are looking for that intuition of

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Speaker 2: what what what is normal and what can I really

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Speaker 2: expect from these.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and look you you alluded to this earlier in

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Speaker 1: saying that you know, a lot of people just want rankings, right,

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Speaker 1: they just want to have that answer and they want

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Speaker 1: to use that. But what I've found and discovered, and

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Speaker 1: I think that, like if you were to go and

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Speaker 1: you would see what analysts are talking about on like

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Speaker 1: Twitter or even like from an analyst perspective, a lot

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Speaker 1: of analysts would say that some of the stuff that

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Speaker 1: some of the deep dives that that other analysts do

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Speaker 1: are not necessary because people just want at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, they just want these rankings. And I

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Speaker 1: have a very strong disagreement with that because I think

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Speaker 1: that and not only that, I think my my audience

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Speaker 1: in general would would just be the perfect exempt in

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Speaker 1: your audience on Reddit and such would be a perfect

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Speaker 1: example of this. But this game that we're playing right now,

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Speaker 1: people are not into this hobby simply because they only

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Speaker 1: want to win, right, This is an outlet for people

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Speaker 1: to learn different things, to really dive in and analyze

432
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 1: something that is separate from their day job and separate

433
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:22,959
Speaker 1: from their everyday life.

434
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 3: And this is you.

435
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: This is an ability for them for anyone, right like

436
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: you and I started the same way, where we're just like,

437
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 1: we like to dive deep into these topics and dig

438
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: into it and analyze it, because, yes, the end goal

439
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 1: is that we want to be better in fantasy football.

440
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 3: We want to.

441
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 1: Win, But there is such an appetite out there that

442
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: people have to really dig in and try to understand

443
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 1: this game on a deeper level. And that's why, like,

444
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 1: I think the hardest part is finding that balance of

445
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 1: simply providing rankings without any sort of backbone and just saying, like,

446
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: here have them.

447
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,360
Speaker 3: You know, like, once you've established yourself as someone.

448
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: Who you know has a problem and can do this,

449
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: you can say, yeah, here's my rankings, just trust me.

450
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 3: But that just doesn't do it for me, you know.

451
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: Like I think that we need to always and constantly

452
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 1: be providing that backbone because that's not only fair to

453
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 1: customers and to people who are consumer or content.

454
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 3: But I think people care.

455
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: And what you're alluding and what you're saying here is

456
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: that you're showing these histograms and you're showing these charts

457
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: and such to allow people to dig in themselves and

458
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: to still understand, to not just take what you're saying

459
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 1: at face value.

460
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 3: All the time and to dig into it themselves too.

461
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and I think I should have mentioned earlier.

462
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: I mean the whole point for wanting like this rational

463
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: basis it increases people's enjoyment of the game. They like

464
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 2: feel like they're actually understand and know what space they're

465
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: operating in, right, And that can go two ways. That

466
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: can be like I want to trust the model so

467
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 2: I know that this player higher is the one I

468
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 2: should choose, which is a little too simple, or like

469
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 2: I want to know that I don't need to worry

470
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 2: quite so much. Yes, that's a big point for me.

471
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: Like I've got questions before, like you know, why do

472
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 2: you have I'm just gonna say Boswell, because he got

473
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: the most attention this year. Why do you have him

474
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 2: like number nine or something? And it's like, well, okay,

475
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 2: he's number nine, but like there's a zero point two

476
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: difference between him and like the number four or number three,

477
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: Like it's one tier, you could say, but you know,

478
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 2: you need that projection, You need that ability to know

479
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: like okay, what what actually I do? I need to

480
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 2: sweat it? Can? I think? To me, it's about letting

481
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 2: people have fun, Like like you have a lot of freedom.

482
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: If there is one one and a half points different,

483
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: then more than that, then yeah, okay, maybe start to

484
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 2: think like you could make a better choice more. You've

485
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 2: got a lot of flexibility to make it your game,

486
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 2: to make you know your choices the ones you enjoy.

487
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,199
Speaker 2: I try to stress that quite frequently. People say like, oh,

488
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,959
Speaker 2: I've just got this feeling about make Feerson this week,

489
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 2: and you know, but I see he's like in your

490
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 2: ak and I'm just like, the difference is like two points.

491
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 2: Let's you know, it's the difference between let's say I

492
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: don't know, nine points and seven in the projection. Like

493
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 2: you if you're gonna feel way worse if you listen

494
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: to this guy here, like just tell you and it

495
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: didn't you know, go right for you right then if

496
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: it was a choice you owned, and then you know, okay,

497
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: so what maybe you know next time I could do different,

498
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: but at least it was your own choice. So I

499
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 2: think a lot of the people that follow my stuff

500
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 2: and your stuff are looking for that kind of experience.

501
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you mentioned like your own choice, like it's like, yes,

502
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: it's gonna you might, you know, be really pissed off

503
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 1: whenever things don't go your way after you made that choice,

504
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: and maybe some people out there just want to blame

505
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 1: the fantasy analyst, and okay, like we've we've we've heard

506
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: that plenty. But also celebrating the wins is so important

507
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: whenever you're the one who made Like when people come

508
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: to me at the end of the season, they're like,

509
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: thank you so much. You got me a championship. I

510
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: didn't get you a championship. You literally you manage your roster,

511
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: you did all that. I hopefully guided you in the

512
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 1: right direction. But you know, I think there's no better

513
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 1: example of what you were referring to with like projections

514
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 1: and like just in tiers than then wide receiver this

515
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: year and in fantasy, well there's there's like eight good

516
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: wide receivers and then there's just a bunch of them,

517
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: you know, like there and there's so much volatility this

518
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: year in particular at the position, and you know you

519
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 1: don't feel great about them. And then you know, you

520
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: publish rankings or all publish rankings in the given week,

521
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: and you know someone might say, why is this player

522
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 1: twelve spots ahead of this player? But realistically there's really

523
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 1: not much of a difference in terms of projection between

524
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: those guys.

525
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 3: It's just you see, this is my and I'm curious

526
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 3: if you agree with this.

527
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: This is where I have always had issues with rankings,

528
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: is that they're so linear naturally, right, it's just one

529
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: to two to three to four to five. And so

530
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: our brains when we look at rankings were like, oh,

531
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 1: this one is one away from two, that two is

532
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: one away from three.

533
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,479
Speaker 3: But and this is why I try to tier all

534
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 3: of my rankings.

535
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: But realistically, one to four could be light years ahead

536
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 1: of five to eight, you know, and in the way

537
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: that the rankings are set.

538
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: And I think just naturally, like the way people consume things.

539
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: And this is my biggest issue with like just anything

540
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: in the fantasy space and why I've never been one

541
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 1: to submit anything to fantasy pros and such, because number one,

542
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 1: I don't want my content to just be there.

543
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 3: I want to own my content.

544
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 1: But number two, like, I don't think that's necessarily like

545
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 1: the way that people need to consume this content, you know,

546
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 1: Like I think it's just it's too it's too linear

547
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:26,959
Speaker 1: in nature.

548
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, it is a problem. That's and tiers are

549
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 2: a problem too sometimes because you don't know the drop

550
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 2: off because like the different ones, and it's it's a simplification.

551
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 2: So that's why I mean everything I do defaults to

552
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 2: point projections somehow so that you can actually see and

553
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: you know, I got the color gradient as in my

554
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 2: classic thing since eight years, so you can also get

555
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 2: a bit of a visualization of that. So no, that's

556
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 2: absolutely right. And I used to study like how to

557
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 2: get people to understand in terms of rankings as well.

558
00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 2: I've heard you talk about this before on the show,

559
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 2: like just because you predict the number one spot for

560
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 2: the week, you definitely don't expect that person to be

561
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 2: the number one.

562
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.

563
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 2: And in my case it I remember finding that, like

564
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 2: for DST, whenever I have a number one, the most

565
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 2: likely outcome is number ten. Yeah, like, which sounds pretty bad,

566
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 2: but you know you're sort of ignoring that someone's going

567
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: to have a surprise boom, and you know, maybe it

568
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: doesn't go as well, like there's this huge and that's

569
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: not because the rankings are bad, but like everyone else

570
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: I look at is at least that or it's not

571
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: a little worse when I make compared, So it's like

572
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 2: it's just this like constant, and that's what people need

573
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 2: to understand. It's like, you couldn't have really done any better,

574
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 2: you know, just the way randomness the scatter works out.

575
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's similar.

576
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 1: It's similar when people will talk about if a player

577
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 1: busted or not in a given season, and they're like, well,

578
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: I drafted this guy at RB seven and he finishes

579
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 1: RB nine, and I'm like, that's a great season for

580
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: the RB seven, you know, like you if you're getting

581
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: that kind of production from the RB seven, that's actually

582
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 1: that's why I always base everything off of ADP expect right,

583
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: So just based on how many points we'd expect a

584
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: player to score at their particular ADP versus how players

585
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: historically have scored at that ADP. And so if the

586
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 1: RB seven typically scores I don't know, fourteen and a

587
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: half PPR points per game or whatever that number would be,

588
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 1: and then that player who you drafted their scored fifteen

589
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: PPR points per game, then that player actually out even

590
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 1: if he's the RB nine or the RB ten, he

591
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: actually outperformed that ADP.

592
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: Expectation and he was actually a good pick, not a

593
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:29,120
Speaker 3: bad pick.

594
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: And so that to me, again going more based on

595
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 1: the numerical value as opposed to just the ranking value

596
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: can go a really long way, not only in the

597
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: way that we analyze this game, but in the way

598
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: that people react, Like you're saying to this game, you know,

599
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: like this guy was a horrible pick because he finished

600
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: as you know, like he was three spots below where

601
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: we drafted him.

602
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, but look at what's going.

603
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: On around him, like everyone else also didn't perform, you know,

604
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: And that's just the way that fantasy football goes. But

605
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 1: but I do want to talk about these predictive models.

606
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: Let's get let's get a little bit nerdier with this. Okay, yeah, yeah,

607
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: even even more news say so, but it wasn't my decision.

608
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: Go for it.

609
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: So so you you have these models with like streaming defenses,

610
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: and honestly, my the way I'll talk about my process

611
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: really quick just because I think it'll help at least

612
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 1: like show the discrepancy between how I approach things to

613
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 1: how you approach things. My weekly process with ranking is

614
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: that I have a very baseline projection that I'll run

615
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: for every player. But as you noted, like it is

616
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,479
Speaker 1: a lot of work, Like it's not a button that

617
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 1: you click and then all of a sudden, everything is

618
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: just good for you for the rest of the week. Right,

619
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,479
Speaker 1: Like when it comes to projections and stuff, there's an

620
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:46,719
Speaker 1: insane amount of maintenance.

621
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: The best two days are Tuesdays are crazy, They're nuts, and.

622
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: The best projectors in the space, Like if you go

623
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: to and establish the run for instance, you know, some

624
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: of the sharpest people in DFS and best Ball in

625
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: season long, and they have people that are working on projections,

626
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: that are constantly fixing projections, and they're having literal discussions

627
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: about one single player's target share to that, to that,

628
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: you know, level of detail. And I'm one dude, who's

629
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: who's doing this? And I'm obviously creating all this other content.

630
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 1: So what I found as my best practice for being

631
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: able to get as much done as I can get

632
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: done is to have a baseline projection that I'll run

633
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: each week at the at the beginning of the week.

634
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: I don't really touch the projections again the rest of

635
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 1: the week. It's more so a subjective like look at

636
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: like then I'll dig in more into individual matchups and

637
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: stuff for wide receivers, you know, like slot roles versus

638
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 1: out wide roles, and see you know, which players just

639
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 1: seem to have better matchups based on some of the

640
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: more qualitative things, you know, just like knowing ball and

641
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: like seeing what I'm seeing, you know, while watching games

642
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: and stuff like that. So I use the projections as

643
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,479
Speaker 1: a baseline. But the difference between what I'm doing what

644
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: you're doing is that your projections are really guiding how

645
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: you're ranking these guys. And so I'm very curious as

646
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: to what's going into that modeling for all these different positions.

647
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: So let's start with defensive streaming. What are some of

648
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: the big inputs that you're looking at when you are

649
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: with your model and when you are ranking these these

650
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: each week?

651
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: I mean theirs. I'll actually open something up here because

652
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: why not. But I mean, first of all, the way

653
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: I run it is that you know, I don't choose

654
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: I lit the computer. I basically program my own AI.

655
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: I was doing AI classes at the end of the

656
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: nineties and it was something, as you know, sort of

657
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 2: pulled back wanted to get back into. So it's I

658
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: made algorithms that sort of train based on and find

659
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 2: which inputs are actually most valid. So the maybe a

660
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 2: first thing to clarify, I don't know if you deal

661
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: with this actually, but when one question is always like

662
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: what is an average, like in the average number of

663
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 2: sacks that a team has or interceptions or whatever. And

664
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: I don't talk about this so much because it's so

665
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 2: boring for people, But I spent an enormous amount of

666
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 2: time every off season, you know, I don't. This goes

667
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: all year for me, right like January hits. I'm going

668
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 2: to be like revising this module. And what it does

669
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: is first of all, figure out for each parameter, like

670
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: what is the best average? Should use the last five

671
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 2: weeks of interceptions or rushing yards or the last ten weeks?

672
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,239
Speaker 2: And should you look at trends or is it you know?

673
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,719
Speaker 2: And so it's sort of trained to learn on that

674
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: data to predict like or to optimize what correlates with

675
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: a future result as well. So so I that's like

676
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: the first thing that goes into it. Then I have

677
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 2: I don't know if anyone puts that much effort into

678
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 2: like creating an average, I'd actually be really curious how

679
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 2: others do it. But that's that's my way of doing it.

680
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 2: It's very involved. And then when it comes to the models,

681
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: So first of all, maybe I should point out. So

682
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: I have three DST models, right, because I was always

683
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 2: surprised there hasn't been another real like ESPN DST rankings

684
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 2: of it, because the decisions are very different from the

685
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: normal Yahoo sleeper, the one that Fantasy pros measures against

686
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: with the yards allowed, so I have got it different

687
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: models for that and also this one that became popular.

688
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 2: You deserve better defensive scoring, so the models will be

689
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: a bit different. Oh yeah, okay, I'm looking at it now.

690
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 2: But it's not that I actually switched last year to

691
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: actually first predicting sacks and interceptions and yards allowed like

692
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 2: all of the individual components, and then combining them. That

693
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: was just something I learned worked better. It doesn't mean

694
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 2: that it has to be that way, but it gave

695
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: better predictions. So then I need to look at all

696
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: of those. But it's things like, okay, so here we go.

697
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: Interceptions is based on it's actually more heavily weighted to

698
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 2: defensive interceptions, a little bit less towards the opponent the

699
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: quarterback thrown interceptions just slightly, uh, and how many pass

700
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: first downs they have and completions. It's also based it's

701
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 2: tied to Vegas. So in this case interceptions is related

702
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 2: to the spread, Yeah, the spread vegus. I don't think

703
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 2: that's a big surprise. And then there's this small little

704
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 2: nudge from Monday Games having slightly more. But you know,

705
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 2: so it's stuff like that, and you know whether it

706
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: would be included as well.

707
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, indoor outdoor.

708
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: I'm assuming there's yeah, all of that. So yeah, I

709
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 2: don't know if I can give anything to like elucidating,

710
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 2: because it's really it's interesting to hear about like what is,

711
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 2: but I think it is.

712
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: I think it's good for people to hear the amount

713
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 1: of detail that goes into that kind of thing because like,

714
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if you like how you feel about this,

715
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: But I do a lot of prospect modeling, right, so

716
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: one of like my big if you were to say,

717
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: what is like the big model that you run and do,

718
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: it would be the ZAP model, the Zach reason adjust,

719
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 1: a prospect model that I do that's just based on

720
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: incoming running back wide receiver tight end model is not bad,

721
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 1: but it's not amazing. I haven't put as much effort

722
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: into the tight end one as I have. It's just

723
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 1: harder because the data set's not as large right as

724
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 1: the as the running back and wide receiver one. But

725
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: I've found through and like you said, like you you

726
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: started and then you got into it, and then like

727
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: the first year you were you were manipulating even more

728
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: than you do now just because you saw you know,

729
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: it's the same thing with me, Like you're learning constantly

730
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: as you're in, you're adding and you're and you're altering

731
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 1: and changing things.

732
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 3: And you know, I've gotten.

733
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 1: Feedback before with the ZAP model where every year, like

734
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,240
Speaker 1: every year in January, most of my January is spent

735
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 1: or a lot of my January is spent manipulating the

736
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: model and just kind of like testing other metrics that

737
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: I haven't tested before and just seeing if there's anything

738
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: to make it.

739
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 3: More predictive than it's been.

740
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: And sometimes it turns people off because they've gotten results

741
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 1: in the past where hopefully it's been good, but now

742
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: they're saying, oh, well, this result in the past. You know,

743
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: this player's prospect score was a ninety five and now

744
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 1: it's a ninety seven, and because you changed some inputs

745
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: and it changed.

746
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, but don't you want me to be

747
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 3: more accurate? You know, Like that's that's.

748
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 2: My That was a common thing on Reddit for a while, people,

749
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: why did your rankings change? It's so frustrating that well,

750
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,240
Speaker 2: you know, suddenly there came snow in the weather report,

751
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,760
Speaker 2: Like what do you want bad writings?

752
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 3: You know, right, exactly exactly.

753
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: And I think these inputs actually are extremely interesting. And

754
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:23,879
Speaker 2: I tried to share, like I did a couple posts

755
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 2: earlier this year on like myth kicks for example, Yeah,

756
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 2: and to try to show that like predicting future miskicks

757
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 2: isn't just by looking at kickers accuracy. It's based on

758
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 2: all these other things spread maybe fumble recoveries and the

759
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,439
Speaker 2: weather if there's wind like that. There are a lot

760
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: of reasons that contribute to a miskick besides just previous

761
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 2: myth kicks. Yeah, looking at fumble recoveries here, and it's

762
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: got stuff like playoff chances as a part of it,

763
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: or the pace of game and stuff like that. And

764
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: I wanted to mention there was one other thing. I'm

765
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: just looking at one out of the corner of my

766
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 2: eye here. But the way I have it set up

767
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: to work to give a little bit of extra insight

768
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 2: to the model. I actually have differentiated models for high

769
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 2: vegas implied scores and low vegas implied scores and also

770
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: mid or whole range, so I actually have and they're

771
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: totally different, prim like what predicts a good DST score

772
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 2: if their opponent is expected to score high has different

773
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 2: inputs like I forget which one and one of them

774
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 2: interceptions isn't important and the other one sacks isn't as

775
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: important like it's It actually makes like a difference that

776
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: makes sense.

777
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 3: Particularly that's intuitive.

778
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: Right, like just because if you're in a low vegas game,

779
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 1: like it's it's likely going to be a little bit

780
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: more ground heavy or it's not, you know whereas and

781
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: I do think that from a defense, And I want

782
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts on this definitely, because like last week,

783
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: for instance, I remember I had the RAMS ranked relatively

784
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: high against Arizona, and you know, and I had some

785
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: feedback like, well, Arizona, you know, is playing well offensively,

786
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 1: and I don't know how much I trust, whatever the

787
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,080
Speaker 1: case may be. And but but I think that they're

788
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 1: is like this misunderstanding a little bit by the everyday

789
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: fantasy manager that you don't just want to chase low

790
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: points point totals for the opposing team because you want

791
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 1: because where we score points defensively is via dropbacks, right

792
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: like we want because you get a sack, you can

793
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: need an interception. There's there's gonna be obviously sack fumbles

794
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 1: and that's a huge you know, it can be a

795
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 1: huge play, and most of those plays are going to

796
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,439
Speaker 1: be you know, you're not there's really not that big

797
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 1: of a differential, you know, unless you're getting like a

798
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 1: shutout or something. In most platforms with like allowing fourteen

799
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: points versus twenty seven points, you know, it's not going

800
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 1: to be as dramatic as some of the as a

801
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: turnover stuff would be. Is that one of the key

802
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: reasons that you would then have the two separated models

803
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 1: of like high totals and low totals.

804
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah, And it's also by the way, for different

805
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 2: phases of this season, so different inputs for the last

806
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: Now we're in playoffs, so it's it's heavily weighted towards

807
00:38:55,680 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 2: even a different set depending on other things off chances

808
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: and the like as well. So yeah, exactly, it's just

809
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: letting the I mean really honestly, it's letting the computer

810
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 2: explore that space and testing theories. I really liked what

811
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 2: you said about the way you update your models in

812
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: the off season up model, because that's how I think

813
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 2: of it. This isn't just like I kind of don't

814
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 2: even like the word model sometimes because it just sort

815
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 2: of implies somebody like puts some like equations together or something.

816
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 2: In a way it is, but it's it's every update

817
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: is like a small study. It's like it's it's a

818
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 2: small bit of research to test whether something is impactful

819
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 2: or not. And so I wish I could. I mean,

820
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 2: I have so much more to say if people had

821
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: the patience and time to listen about what interesting factors

822
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 2: actually drive this one or that one. But that's how

823
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: it is, a bunch of micro studies.

824
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you also do kicker models.

825
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: And the funny thing about the kicker stuff is number one,

826
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: you know, kickers are obviously there's they're a hot topic

827
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 1: every year in fantasy where some and you know a

828
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,439
Speaker 1: lot of managers just don't want them in the game,

829
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: and some managers do. I find it just funny because

830
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: I last summer or two summers ago, I told people

831
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: on the Late Round discord that I was going to

832
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 1: build a kicker model just because I want to keep

833
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: getting kicker questions. I don't do Kicker rankings at all, Like,

834
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: I just don't, like it's never been part of like

835
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 1: what I offer. And I semi joke that I was

836
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 1: going to build a Kicker model, and then I started modeling, Like,

837
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: I started messing around with it a little. I finally

838
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 1: had some data that I got and stuff with Kickers,

839
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 1: and I.

840
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 3: Started looking into it, and I'm like, I'm not I'm

841
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 3: not going to do this.

842
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 1: So I got to ask you with the Kicker model, like,

843
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 1: what are some of the big inputs that you definitely,

844
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: you know, feel like are important? But then number two,

845
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: is it a harder thing to model than defensive streaming?

846
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 2: And right, No, I was jeered for even suggesting I

847
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 2: would try to make a Kicker model. Originally, back if

848
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 2: you go eight years ago, it was like, why would

849
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: you subject yourself to that? But it's been It's the

850
00:40:56,560 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: most frustrating one to do, but it's also brings so

851
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 2: much more learning and insights I think into what actually

852
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: drives it. So I think for that reason, it's always

853
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 2: the you know, the curiosity factor is what sort of

854
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 2: compels more investigation. But it is definitely very difficult. Like,

855
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 2: so first of all, like my DST models. I'm very

856
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 2: happy with. I keep like I think they have reached

857
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: like I don't have when I do my accuracy reviews,

858
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 2: I would always have a year where I would say

859
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 2: it looks like I'm like third this year or what

860
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 2: you know, I like admitting the faults. At this point,

861
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 2: it's just been like week after week, it's just you know,

862
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: and unfortunately it's not like you say, celebrating the winds

863
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: tangent now. But my problem is that sometimes the real

864
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 2: benefit of the model is downgrading the ones that actually

865
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 2: are busts. Yeah, people don't see that, you know, because

866
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 2: like there were some weeks where I, like, I don't know,

867
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 2: everyone else had the Lions high and my momor Broncos

868
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 2: or something I might have them a lot lower, but

869
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 2: nobody was like, oh, thank you for not telling me

870
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 2: to do anyway. So DST model I feel great about.

871
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 2: Quarterback model is just like on Fire. I'm so happy

872
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 2: with it. The Kicker model is in constant development, and

873
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 2: I think it's going to probably be the only one

874
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 2: that I really do some other updates on. First of all,

875
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 2: like last year it did really well. There was a

876
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:24,800
Speaker 2: guy on Fantasy submitted to Fantasy pros my kicker rankings,

877
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 2: and it came number two last year in weeks. Some

878
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 2: weeks they weren't submitted, so there were some discrepancies, but

879
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 2: I felt very good about it. But the game is

880
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 2: changing a lot, and that has disturbed my kicker models.

881
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 2: So for example, like I don't know, if you go

882
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: back six years ago, we had the emergence of some

883
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 2: of the air raid strategies having impact in the NFL,

884
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 2: and that had like you know, that was hard a

885
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,720
Speaker 2: little harder to predict. There was a bit less field

886
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 2: goals from that, but the big one, like I actually

887
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 2: the way I started here, a lot of the you

888
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 2: act about it. Before, a lot of my earlier kicker

889
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 2: rankings were going fantastic, I mean twenty nineteen twenty they

890
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 2: were like it was picking out kickers that you wouldn't

891
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 2: normally expect and they were delivering. But the times change,

892
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 2: and one of the things that changed, especially in like

893
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 2: twenty two twenty one, twenty two, was this prevalence of

894
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: fourth downs, yes, and the increased you know, I guess

895
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: some clever analysts came up with the idea, you know,

896
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 2: so much for them, but to encourage that they should

897
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 2: go for more fourth downs than they did, and that

898
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: was disturbing a lot of the kickerings, so I had

899
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 2: to update my model for that. And the more recent

900
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 2: one I would say is actually this about the k ball. Yeah,

901
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 2: I guess you're not be familiar, but just the fact

902
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 2: that now kickers can sort of choose which ball they

903
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 2: will use for their kicks, so they're familiar with it

904
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 2: and they're going for longer kicks. It's exciting also because

905
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 2: we're seeing many more long kicks, making the position, you know,

906
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 2: more exciting. But I had a tough time, so my

907
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 2: mom has been doing great this year, except for two

908
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: specific weeks, week three and five, where like it was

909
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 2: like you could just turn that ranking upside down. Yeah,

910
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 2: you know, it was just awful. This is actually a

911
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,959
Speaker 2: good example of something where I, you know, I see

912
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 2: a bad result, I totally admit it and then dig

913
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 2: into the reasons why. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

914
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 2: But it looks like from what I can see that

915
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 2: a lot more teams were trying out this idea like hey,

916
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 2: maybe my kicker is just two. And there were all

917
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 2: these teams, like a quarter of the league that in

918
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 2: Week one, two, three, those kicks from fifty yards and

919
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 2: longer were like more than double the historical amount. It

920
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 2: slowed down after week seven, so now we're like back

921
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 2: to normal. But it was like the first month was

922
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: just full of really long kicks, and the model had

923
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: been trained to pick up on that and say, oh this,

924
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 2: you know, the way it had learned from the past.

925
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 2: In the past, you could trust that if there were

926
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,280
Speaker 2: some long kicks, that would make a good kicker choice

927
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 2: for the next few weeks. But it turned out like

928
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 2: the Bills, Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Rams, Cardinals, Chiefs, like all

929
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 2: these teams like had a lot of long kicks early

930
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 2: and then none for like like still maybe they've had,

931
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 2: like you maybe two or three of those since then,

932
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,839
Speaker 2: but if they just stopped, and that basically caused these

933
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 2: week three and five rankings to say, hey, we want

934
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 2: those kickers, but actually they weren't doing that anymore. And

935
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 2: I think we're seeing an evolution of the game now

936
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 2: where like they need to decide at that you know,

937
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 2: midfield range, like am I going to go for a

938
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 2: fourth down? Or am I going to take the long kick?

939
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 2: And like they're working through that strategy and that you know,

940
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 2: so that's one of the challenges with recently with the

941
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: kicker modeling.

942
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I mean, NFL trends. It has

943
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: to be so difficult right now for so many reasons.

944
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 1: Number One, you have the fourth down stuff, and I

945
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 1: do want to say, like, have you when.

946
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 3: It comes up? And I'll get to the other thing

947
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 3: that I want to talk about here in a second.

948
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 2: Two.

949
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: But when it comes to the fourth down stuff, have

950
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: you gotten as granular as looking at like coaching data

951
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,399
Speaker 1: and seeing how frequently the individual coach might be going

952
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 1: for fourth down or is that something where you're just

953
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 1: kind of looking at general team for that season and

954
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 1: how things are trending with like their fourth down aggressiveness.

955
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 2: Yes, it's the second one. I would like to get

956
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: more granularity, and actually dig in, I haven't integrated like

957
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 2: where on the field position are the fourth down and

958
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 2: I think that's something I would really like to add

959
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:40,240
Speaker 2: into it as well. But I think the bigger issue

960
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 2: has become these longer kicks and it works in a

961
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 2: little bit like if they go So there's actually, if

962
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 2: I can mention one other kind of interesting to me.

963
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 2: It's a really interesting fact there because if you see

964
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 2: all these long kicks. You think, oh, isn't aren't NFL

965
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 2: scores increasing? Then we have like if we're getting more

966
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: field goals, aren't game scored? And I dug into it,

967
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 2: and you know, really it's been so low. Even if

968
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,479
Speaker 2: it doubled, it would add basically half a point per game,

969
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,320
Speaker 2: you know, on average, with the amount of increased long kicks.

970
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 2: And we've seen that fluctuation before, like the average score

971
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 2: can go you know, up one or two points historically.

972
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 2: I mean, it's that's reasonable. But I was also looking

973
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 2: into what has anything decreased, and actually it has. It

974
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 2: turns out that the near term kicks are decreased or

975
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 2: have decreased the last couple of years at the same time.

976
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 2: So we used to be able to sort of trust

977
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: that like there would be this sort of like same

978
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 2: ratio of short kicks and long kicks. And by the way,

979
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 2: this has been This is the exciting part to me,

980
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 2: because there's been this narrative for a while that people say, well,

981
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 2: you want to pick a kicker who has a team

982
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 2: that can get down the field and then stalls in

983
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 2: the rit zone. That's been like the historical narrative, and

984
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 2: actually now it's going away from that, I mean, and

985
00:47:58,440 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 2: you know that was true for some teams. It was

986
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 2: allays a little dodgy, like if other people found this too,

987
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 2: But basically, you know, there wasn't a huge difference between

988
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 2: red zone success and you know, drive success rate looking

989
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: up upfield as well. But I think what we're seeing

990
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 2: is more of the fourth downs closer to the red

991
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 2: zone as well, So you're seeing fewer of those short,

992
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 2: short kicks.

993
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think to not to interrupt, but I

994
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 1: think that that was the other thing that I was

995
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: going to bring up was that I think a lot

996
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: of that has to do with the kickoff rules where

997
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 1: field position is so different now right, starting to like

998
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: why would you you know, punt at this point or

999
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 1: kick the google at this point and have because because

1000
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 1: the expected points on a given drive is going to

1001
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 1: just look different based on where that drive is actually starting.

1002
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: And so you know, to your to what you're saying

1003
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 1: though about like the shorter kicks not happening as frequently,

1004
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: because teams are then going to be more aggressive and say, no,

1005
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 1: we're just going to go for an on fourth and

1006
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 1: three because we have good We'll give them bad bad

1007
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 1: field position if we miss this I think there's a

1008
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: lot of things that are merging here. It's like, on

1009
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 1: one end, it's definitely the kickoff rules and you know

1010
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: all that, but then on the other end, it's also

1011
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 1: what you noted. You know, there's analysts and people who

1012
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:11,800
Speaker 1: have done analytics that have said this is when you

1013
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 1: you should be going.

1014
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:13,720
Speaker 3: Forward here more frequently.

1015
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:15,799
Speaker 1: And so it's like this merging of like, you know,

1016
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 1: just progressiveness in the way that coaches are going to

1017
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: call those plays just based on data, but also the

1018
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 1: rules in the NFL. But you know, you said, you know,

1019
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 1: we used to very like shorthand wise with a kicker. Okay,

1020
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 1: we would say we want kickers in high implied team

1021
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 1: total teams or on those types of teams that they're

1022
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,239
Speaker 1: probably favorites, you know, like in a good spot or

1023
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: at least like a you don't want a negative game

1024
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: script because then they they'd be going for it a lot, right,

1025
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: and then you know, you want them to be like

1026
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: maybe not as great in the red zone. Is there

1027
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 1: like a shorthand if you were to just dumb it

1028
00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: down like a couple of bullet points or no, the

1029
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: answer could be no, I'm not trying to I know.

1030
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 3: I'm putting you on the spot a little bit.

1031
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, But is there like a shorthand of like

1032
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 1: a couple of things that you know this year rest

1033
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: of season, we got three weeks left. I mean, maybe

1034
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 1: I'm selfishly saying this too because I have a couple

1035
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 1: of kicker leagues that are still going on. But is

1036
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 1: there like a shorthand of like what we should be

1037
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 1: looking for in a kicker and making that decision.

1038
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to say no, I don't think you can

1039
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 2: do that. But that's also part of what keeps it

1040
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 2: really interesting. I mean, there are a lot of reasons

1041
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 2: why a kicker could end up with more opportunities, and

1042
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 2: it doesn't just depend It depends on is does the

1043
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 2: team you know, pass more than run or not? And

1044
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 2: I mean the whole dynamics of the team. And this

1045
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 2: was my initial goal. The reason I was interested in

1046
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 2: kickers was really to bring in this idea of like

1047
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 2: the whole team interaction and dynamics into dependencies, not just

1048
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: and maybe there was a time where you could simplify

1049
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 2: it a bit. I have shared, you know. I called

1050
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 2: it actually the simple equation where just like you said,

1051
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 2: you can look at the implied total and the spread

1052
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 2: the spread matters as well, and make an estimate for

1053
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 2: what the kicker rules score and that worksably well. But

1054
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 2: one of the tools I didn't mention that I've added

1055
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 2: is this stalling curve that I have for kickers as well,

1056
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 2: where I simulate the likely end of a you know,

1057
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 2: field position at the end of each drive. And that's

1058
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 2: something else that I model. So this actually has created

1059
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 2: This year, I was releasing the first decimal scoring for kicker,

1060
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 2: So there's a model for that, and it's based on

1061
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 2: this idea of looking at where the drive stops at

1062
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 2: the thirty yard kicks, forty yard kicks and so on,

1063
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 2: and each one of those has a different driver, like,

1064
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 2: which is really I've posted about this before, so I'm

1065
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 2: looking through here just I feel like I can pull

1066
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 2: out a good example here. Okay, thirty yard line depends

1067
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 2: a lot on those thirty plus yard kicks, depends on

1068
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 2: red zone efficiency, and if the opponent is punting the

1069
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 2: twenty yard plus depends on the spread, you know, so

1070
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 2: as you actually get more field, it's less dependent on

1071
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 2: different vegas inputs and the like in divisional games, missed points,

1072
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: pace of game. Yeah, So I think there. It's just

1073
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 2: it's too complicated than there. And that's the only way

1074
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 2: actually to get an edge one care modeling, and that's

1075
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 2: why it works to sort of accept like this could

1076
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 2: go a lot of different ways, but the best guess

1077
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 2: we have is to actually look at these sort of

1078
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 2: discrete micro thingk segments, yeah, yea, and then combine them together.

1079
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 3: You've done a lot of interesting studies.

1080
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 1: I'm going to touch on a couple of them, a

1081
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 1: few of them that you can maybe talk through. Let's

1082
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 1: just start with a very high level one based on

1083
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 1: the fact that we're talking about streaming. I've done a

1084
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 1: podcast about streaming for thirteen years now. Clearly we think

1085
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 1: streaming can be effective, but is it is it officially

1086
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 1: better to stream At those three we'll say, oh, defense, quarterback,

1087
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 1: and kicker versus you know, going with one of those

1088
00:52:57,800 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 1: positions maybe when you're drafting.

1089
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 2: Right, you know, these are some of the ones I

1090
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 2: like to do because that was a question sometimes and

1091
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 2: you know, you talk about the late round when it

1092
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 2: was an early round quarterback, and that was a philosophy

1093
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 2: get a good defense that got you know, basically ten

1094
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 2: fifteen years ago, overturn the idea and say no, you

1095
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,280
Speaker 2: actually can can stream. So that's something that I definitely

1096
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 2: like to simulate, model and figure out also at which

1097
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 2: point it doesn't make sense anymore. So the DST is

1098
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 2: clearly like you should stream kickers is a difficult one.

1099
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 2: I mean it changes again with the different years, but

1100
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 2: in general the conclusion is that kickers streaming can work better. However,

1101
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 2: I've recently been working on a new analysis I haven't

1102
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 2: published this one yet, that is reconsidering the idea that

1103
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 2: you know, maybe at some point you can hold your

1104
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 2: kicker maybe, like you know, it takes halfway through the

1105
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:55,879
Speaker 2: season maybe to figure out which teams have a propensity

1106
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 2: for kicking and they're gonna get And it changes, right

1107
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 2: because like you know, Boswell, people have loved him, especially

1108
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 2: last year, and a bit like you it's been around

1109
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 2: in a decade and it wasn't like he was always

1110
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: you know, So so teams change, they're taking opportunities change,

1111
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,799
Speaker 2: and halfway through the season maybe you can learn. And

1112
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 2: so I've been looking at does it at some point

1113
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,399
Speaker 2: make sense to look ahead and hold on to the kicker,

1114
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 2: so you know, simulating that your league mates could pick

1115
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 2: them up for example, Yeah, and protect against that, and

1116
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 2: that seems to have some validity I think. So I've

1117
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 2: I've given you know, posts about holding recommendations quarterback is

1118
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 2: really interesting.

1119
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 3: It's very Yeah, I'm very curious to hear.

1120
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 2: What the way I look at this one is I

1121
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 2: do the same thing, and so I simulate, like if

1122
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 2: your league is sort of holding their quarterbacks and you're

1123
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 2: the one trying to stream and they're always just grabbing

1124
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 2: like the best scoring quarterback, Like maybe they give it

1125
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 2: a first month, that's normally what seems to be the

1126
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 2: best strategy, Like you try out four weeks and then

1127
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 2: I think this fits in real life too. Then you

1128
00:54:57,960 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 2: see your league mates kind of pick up, Hey, that

1129
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 2: guy's score a lot, and it'll just pick up the

1130
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 2: top scoring quarterback. So anyway, I simulated this, and what

1131
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 2: I look for is sort of what's the cut, Like

1132
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 2: how many quarterbacks does your league need to own before

1133
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 2: it becomes a bad idea? Right? And it's it's kind

1134
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 2: of a toss up here. I think it depends how

1135
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 2: big your league is. Yeah, I mean if you're if

1136
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 2: you're in a twelve plus team league and you know

1137
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 2: your league everyone's holding two quarterbacks, then you know you're

1138
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 2: scraping the bottle of the barrel, right, So it's it

1139
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 2: gets tough. But for smaller leagues, if everyone holds two quarterbacks,

1140
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 2: there's still some good wiggle room that you can you know,

1141
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 2: still optimize and stream your quarterback. So that's the way

1142
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 2: I try to plot it, and you know, communicate that.

1143
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 2: It depends on your league settings. Also, if you have

1144
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 2: a league where everyone's holding three quarterbacks or whatever, you know,

1145
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 2: that's a different scenario.

1146
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I also think that the quarterback stuff is very

1147
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: interesting because you know, unlike I mean, I would assume

1148
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 1: it's not like I've dug into the kicker stuff, but

1149
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 1: I would assume that there are very few kickers where

1150
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:06,840
Speaker 1: over a five year period that maybe Brandon Aubrey's going

1151
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:10,240
Speaker 1: to become that guy, but very rarely are there guys

1152
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:12,840
Speaker 1: who are just like, yeah, we're going to get kicker

1153
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 1: one production from this guy this season, and we know

1154
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,240
Speaker 1: that from a predictability standpoint going into the year. Whereas

1155
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:22,960
Speaker 1: a quarterback what we've seen since about basically since Lamar

1156
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 1: Jackson's first MVP season. I always kind of reference that

1157
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:28,240
Speaker 1: point because I think the market, the fantasy football market

1158
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 1: switched in the way that they view mobility at the

1159
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:33,920
Speaker 1: quarterback position, in the importance of rushing at the quarterback position.

1160
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: And so since then, we've seen the ADPs the average

1161
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:40,280
Speaker 1: rapt position of these high end quarterbacks that are mobile

1162
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 1: and these unicorns who are dual threat the Josh Allen's,

1163
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson's, you know, the Jalen Hurts of the world

1164
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: who are able to do and I know, I say

1165
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts after he's coming off the game that he

1166
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: came off of, but you know, those guys are now

1167
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 1: being pushed up in ADP, which makes it very difficult

1168
00:56:57,200 --> 00:57:00,160
Speaker 1: for those players to then be available on the waiver wire.

1169
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 3: For us to find or for us to get late.

1170
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 1: And there's always gonna be like, you know, Drake May

1171
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:08,160
Speaker 1: was a pretty easy, low hanging fruit, late round quarterback

1172
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 1: target this year. You know, and this is not even

1173
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: me saying in hindsight. You guys can listen to all

1174
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 1: the you know, shows the in the off season where

1175
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:16,040
Speaker 1: I talked about him, but you know Jayden Daniels last

1176
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 1: year where it's like, Okay, yeah, he's probably gonna have

1177
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 1: some mobility, we can throw that dart. But the thing

1178
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 1: that I found because we track our quarterback picks on

1179
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 1: living the stream and when I look at what we've done,

1180
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 1: what we did from twenty thirteen when we started tracking,

1181
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 1: or maybe we started tracking in like twenty fifteen through

1182
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: about twenty nineteen twenty twenty, we were consistently QB five,

1183
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: QB six and points per game with our streaming picks.

1184
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 1: And and for the record, our streaming picks are based

1185
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 1: on you know, low percentage rostered you know, quarterbacks, and

1186
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 1: we don't have the benefit of finding a guy and

1187
00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 1: just using him for the rest of the season if

1188
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 1: he's a great quarterback starter. Right, so we're we're only

1189
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 1: looking at free agency, so we're constantly and consistently mid

1190
00:57:58,960 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 1: QB one.

1191
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, when people started to

1192
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 3: really the market started to.

1193
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 1: Realize that these josh Allen Lamar Jackson players are unicorns,

1194
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 1: and more of those unicorns came to be within the

1195
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 1: fantasy space.

1196
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 3: Now we're streaming like QB eleven in points per game.

1197
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 1: You know, it's just not as easy to find those

1198
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 1: guys off the waiver wire because the market itself has

1199
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:24,440
Speaker 1: become a lot more in tune with what works at

1200
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 1: the quarterback position.

1201
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, No, So I in my analysis, I

1202
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 2: did a quarterback streaming post. Was it like around week

1203
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 2: six this year? Looking at this and you know, I

1204
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:36,439
Speaker 2: also look at the trends of there are some years

1205
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 2: where it's just impossible, yeah, and then it's changing. It's

1206
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 2: yeah as always. So the best you can do is

1207
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 2: try to find out what is typical and is there

1208
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 2: a trend is it actually in this direction?

1209
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1210
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:52,960
Speaker 1: So another question, another study that you've done, and I

1211
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 1: get this question probably a dozen times a year, is

1212
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 1: should you pair your quarterback with your with his kicker

1213
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 1: in the same time.

1214
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. That was when I was really proud to sort

1215
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 2: of elucidate because there were a lot of there were

1216
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:12,480
Speaker 2: there was not a lot, but some articles saying that yes,

1217
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:15,360
Speaker 2: you should do that because you decrease your risk. And

1218
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 2: the idea there was that you would you know, if

1219
00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:20,480
Speaker 2: your quarterback didn't throw a touchdown, then your kicker would

1220
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 2: be in position to get a field goal, so you

1221
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 2: kind of give this offsetting effect. And my finding was, yeah,

1222
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 2: that's not true. That generally is not true because you know,

1223
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:33,800
Speaker 2: if you sort of consider the situations your quarterback scores

1224
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 2: high quarterback scores, low kickerscores high kick. It's actually more

1225
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 2: likely you're in one of the other quadrants, Like if

1226
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,440
Speaker 2: the game is going well, then your quarterback is going

1227
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 2: to score high and your kicker will get opportunities and

1228
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 2: and vice versa. If they're doing worse than so they

1229
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 2: tend to actually move move together. That was a surprise

1230
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:53,720
Speaker 2: as well.

1231
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 1: That's definitely a surprise because you feel like there's a

1232
00:59:56,120 --> 01:00:00,120
Speaker 1: there's a finite number of drives in a game, right

1233
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 1: and scoring opportunities. But you're saying that there is a

1234
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 1: favorable correlation between quarterbacks scoring well and kicker scoring well.

1235
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:10,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to sort of it's not stacking,

1236
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 2: so to speak. But if you want to pair them,

1237
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 2: if you want to sort of get more variants than

1238
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:19,120
Speaker 2: you should pair them. Very interesting, Yeah, very very Or

1239
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 2: if you want to decrease variance, choose the kicker that

1240
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 2: you're opposing your opponents League Mats quarterback.

1241
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's another Yeah, that.

1242
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 2: Was the other way to look at it.

1243
01:00:29,760 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, wow, that's very interesting.

1244
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the fantasy playoffs real quick,

1245
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 1: because obviously that's that's the time of year and that's

1246
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 1: where we're at right now. You have these tools, is

1247
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 1: there any defense out there, defenses out there that you

1248
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 1: think could crush over the next few weeks.

1249
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean some. I I'm glad I pointed out

1250
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 2: what was it, like my week ten post or something

1251
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 2: was called Texans hold them and I think that that

1252
01:00:54,800 --> 01:00:57,440
Speaker 2: still holds true. But yeah, you alluded to the tool that.

1253
01:00:57,640 --> 01:00:59,200
Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of the things that was

1254
01:01:00,160 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 2: so glad that this was like a year. I don't

1255
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:05,560
Speaker 2: know if people realize of just releasing a lot of stuff.

1256
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 2: For me, I was able to have a lot more

1257
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 2: time in this Like pairing tool for DSTs was one

1258
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 2: of them. I hope people got good use out of

1259
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 2: it who are subscribers, but it lets you actually more

1260
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 2: easily see the ones that are nice to pair. So yeah,

1261
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 2: for sure, Texans is obvious. I'm looking at it here,

1262
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 2: So you know, the best ones for the playoffs, I

1263
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:29,280
Speaker 2: would say, is them that There's been some debate about

1264
01:01:29,320 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs are a good pick

1265
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 2: as well. People are worried if they I can hear

1266
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 2: that if they don't make playoffs, then like will they

1267
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:38,959
Speaker 2: give up? I don't see that. What do you think?

1268
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think that those narratives are generally

1269
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 1: a little bit overrated. Like like I think it's sort

1270
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 1: of a selection bias where like we see it happen

1271
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 1: maybe once a year with like a certain player or

1272
01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 1: something like that. My general stance is that these guys

1273
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 1: are NFL athletes.

1274
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 3: They want to play. This is their literal job, you know.

1275
01:01:57,320 --> 01:02:00,800
Speaker 1: And maybe where I get nervous is when and there's

1276
01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 1: a player on a team that's out of it and

1277
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:05,400
Speaker 1: an individual player gets hurt, like I've been nervous about

1278
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 1: like Garrett.

1279
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:07,480
Speaker 3: Wilson for instance.

1280
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 1: You know, he he gets injured and he's out, and

1281
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 1: you know he could he could maybe hypothetically come back,

1282
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 1: but he probably won't come back until he's totally one

1283
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 1: hundred percent. Whereas you know, if there's a team that's

1284
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 1: that's in the player that's that's competing to get in

1285
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 1: the playoffs, if he's eighty percent, he might go out

1286
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 1: there and play, and that would still be more valuable

1287
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 1: for your fantasy team than you know, someone else that

1288
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 1: you've been replacing him with. So that's kind of my

1289
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:31,440
Speaker 1: stance is that, like I don't I don't know if

1290
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 1: teams like really just give up and and you have

1291
01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 1: to you know, there's eleven players on the field on

1292
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:40,040
Speaker 1: a team, and like, like you have to collectively give up,

1293
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 1: you know, like this isn't It's like if one dude,

1294
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:45,160
Speaker 1: like you know, isn't playing at as one hundred percent

1295
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 1: and his full strength, like that means that other guys

1296
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:49,800
Speaker 1: have to And yeah, that might impact things a little bit,

1297
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 1: especially if it's like a quarterback. But I think quarterbacks

1298
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:54,960
Speaker 1: in particular have too big of egos to do that too.

1299
01:02:55,120 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 3: So I'm just not I don't know.

1300
01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 1: I try not to let that over because I think

1301
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 1: it's very easy to, like in those instances where we

1302
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,600
Speaker 1: have these narratives, we have these thoughts, to let it

1303
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 1: overshadow and almost take over what's rational. Right, you can

1304
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 1: think about it, and I think it's fine to say,

1305
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 1: like this might happen, but oh, when you start to

1306
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 1: do that, you.

1307
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 3: Start to then let that overtake any sort.

1308
01:03:16,640 --> 01:03:19,200
Speaker 1: Of rational thought that you have about that particular team

1309
01:03:19,240 --> 01:03:20,640
Speaker 1: and that in this case, that defense.

1310
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:23,920
Speaker 2: Right, it's again this idea of questioning what you believed

1311
01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 2: is that my vile on it and then going with that.

1312
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:30,960
Speaker 2: So chiefs and Saints and giants both have great schedules.

1313
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:34,280
Speaker 2: They're great ones if you can only hold one dst

1314
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,360
Speaker 2: of course, at this stage of year, the you know,

1315
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 2: the stashing idea is for sure strategy, so you know,

1316
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:46,400
Speaker 2: hold the you know, if you looked ahead on you

1317
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 2: would have the Eagles this week probably maybe you get

1318
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 2: the Bills next week for example, and then after that

1319
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 2: Steelers and Lions and and you know week seventeen, so

1320
01:03:57,920 --> 01:04:00,000
Speaker 2: you could stash all of those and make a big

1321
01:04:00,920 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 2: dst PI or whatever.

1322
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, it does.

1323
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 1: I've found that because people just kind of want a

1324
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:09,439
Speaker 1: golden key for the fantasy playoffs and they're like, hey,

1325
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:11,120
Speaker 1: give me a defense that I can just play.

1326
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 3: And I'm like, but but why limit yourself?

1327
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 1: You know, like, why why do that when there's probably

1328
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 1: gonna be some defense available that can be better than

1329
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:19,640
Speaker 1: that one defense for that week.

1330
01:04:19,720 --> 01:04:21,920
Speaker 2: You can probably get them, or at least you might

1331
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 2: want to block your opponent from getting right. That's that's

1332
01:04:24,040 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 2: really the Yeah.

1333
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 1: On are there any kickers in the fantasy playoffs that

1334
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:28,640
Speaker 1: people should be interested in?

1335
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:31,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I've done a whole playoffs thing as well

1336
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:35,400
Speaker 2: for them. I mean, yeah, it's something obviously, you know,

1337
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 2: probably their own. But I've been talking Myers and a

1338
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 2: fair baron if he's healthy, and obviously those are like

1339
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:44,400
Speaker 2: the obvious ones if you find yourself streaming. You know,

1340
01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:48,640
Speaker 2: I think it's interesting with Baits. Actually, people are pretty

1341
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 2: down on Baits because of the whole fourth down thing

1342
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:52,480
Speaker 2: there was, you know, I know, like two three years

1343
01:04:52,520 --> 01:04:55,600
Speaker 2: ago or whatever the Lions were especially, you know, their

1344
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 2: kickers were suffering because of the whole fourth down thing.

1345
01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:02,320
Speaker 2: But that hasn't played out since. Since their bye week,

1346
01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:04,400
Speaker 2: They've averaged like nine and a half points I think,

1347
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:06,600
Speaker 2: or something like. They've been a like Basis had like

1348
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:08,800
Speaker 2: some six point weeks, but a lot of twelve to

1349
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:12,440
Speaker 2: fifteen point weeks as well. So I still you know,

1350
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 2: people say, why do the rankers keep putting them that

1351
01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:16,040
Speaker 2: high when they go for fourth downs? But I think

1352
01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 2: it's a good to pick up otherwise. Yeah, Little and McPherson.

1353
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeah now then too, Yeah, because I've been down on

1354
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 2: him for some weeks and to the ire of some people, but.

1355
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean he's now now that Burrow's back too,

1356
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 1: you know, you got Yeah, I'll be totally honest with you.

1357
01:05:34,360 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 1: I'm to the point with kickers where I don't even

1358
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:40,720
Speaker 1: know starting kickers when the season starts, you know, like I,

1359
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 1: I there are a guy where I literally am learning

1360
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:46,400
Speaker 1: who the kickers are because I it's just been but

1361
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:49,480
Speaker 1: but I you know what, this conversation and other conversations,

1362
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:52,120
Speaker 1: I'll make it my twenty twenty six resolution to get

1363
01:05:52,120 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 1: better with kickers.

1364
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 2: Well, I don't even look at them on I mean

1365
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:56,920
Speaker 2: a lot of people do go with the name, like right,

1366
01:05:56,960 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 2: you'll draft an Aubrey, and that's great, sure do that.

1367
01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:02,400
Speaker 2: But like people were really surprised when I said pick

1368
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 2: up Strader at week one and he turned out, you know,

1369
01:06:05,560 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 2: to be an amazing pick. That same thing happened a

1370
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:09,760
Speaker 2: few years ago when people were down on Nick Folk.

1371
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:13,160
Speaker 2: I can't remember exactly which year, but you know, but

1372
01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 2: but you can still. That's why I don't always need

1373
01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:18,720
Speaker 2: to look at the specific kicker and his name and everything.

1374
01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 2: What is the situation around him, what is the you know,

1375
01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 2: is there a new quarterback in town? Like uncertainty at

1376
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:29,560
Speaker 2: the quarterback position. That's been a really so I've been

1377
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 2: really big recently. I'm looking at other kicker drivers and

1378
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:35,920
Speaker 2: that that turns out to be an interesting one as well.

1379
01:06:36,240 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 1: Kind of is that due to the fact that the

1380
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 1: team not maybe having confidence in that quarterback and then

1381
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 1: just go or.

1382
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 2: Just not knowing like the what I found. I tested

1383
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 2: this because I realized that I rarely had a good

1384
01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 2: accuracy week with kicker and quarterback at the same time,

1385
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:53,960
Speaker 2: like I for whatever, and I thought, could could they

1386
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 2: actually be related? Like and then I looked at and

1387
01:06:56,640 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 2: I actually model the likely variants of quarterback comes by

1388
01:07:00,800 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 2: and I actually test, and that seems to be actually

1389
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 2: a significant input very in the wider range of outcomes

1390
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:10,760
Speaker 2: that a quarterback can have. That that that helps the

1391
01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 2: kicker apparently interesting. Yeah, these are some of the directions

1392
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:19,120
Speaker 2: I keep trying to poke and push and yeah.

1393
01:07:18,040 --> 01:07:18,760
Speaker 3: It's very cool.

1394
01:07:18,800 --> 01:07:20,480
Speaker 1: All right, Before I let you go, I want to

1395
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:23,080
Speaker 1: I want to hear a bold prediction that you have.

1396
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:25,520
Speaker 1: I do this with every perspective's guest, So give me

1397
01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:27,440
Speaker 1: a bold prediction for week fifteen.

1398
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:29,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I got to go with one that's

1399
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:34,280
Speaker 2: kicker or dst right, So I one thing we didn't

1400
01:07:34,280 --> 01:07:37,200
Speaker 2: get to mention, just as a quick segue here a

1401
01:07:37,320 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 2: side note is an interesting study that I did was

1402
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 2: looking and I when do kickers score these like twenty

1403
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:47,959
Speaker 2: point below game? Right? Like when does that happen? Because

1404
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:50,680
Speaker 2: that's really frustrating as a user, as you know, like

1405
01:07:50,800 --> 01:07:52,800
Speaker 2: why did the rankers miss that? I mean it's like

1406
01:07:52,840 --> 01:07:55,480
Speaker 2: twenty two points? How did they not see that coming? Yeah,

1407
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:58,600
Speaker 2: And one kind of satisfying conclusion I got to I

1408
01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 2: think I'm still working on this one, is like they

1409
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 2: happen to usually be those like big point games and

1410
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:07,840
Speaker 2: when the team is expected to lose. So normally, in

1411
01:08:07,840 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 2: your right mind as a ranker, you wouldn't in your

1412
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,120
Speaker 2: right mind put that kicker like in the top half.

1413
01:08:13,200 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 2: I mean maybe you would, but but and then you know,

1414
01:08:16,760 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 2: you can still get of course, fifteen plus point games

1415
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:21,000
Speaker 2: from if they're expected to win, but like those big

1416
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:23,840
Speaker 2: games often seem to come from the lower ones. So

1417
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 2: for this week, I'm gonna go on Limb because you

1418
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 2: asked me to and say, right, Card, maybe I think

1419
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 2: he's the one that might have the blow up game.

1420
01:08:34,240 --> 01:08:36,920
Speaker 2: I mean, it depends so much on you know, McCarthy,

1421
01:08:37,080 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 2: but yeah, you know, with the uncertainty there, maybe he's

1422
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 2: the one that blows up this week.

1423
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:43,920
Speaker 3: I like it.

1424
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 2: And then at DST, I think I'll you know, there's

1425
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 2: a narrative here with the Ravens and what's going on

1426
01:08:50,920 --> 01:08:52,559
Speaker 2: with them. I'll say that they have a chance to

1427
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:56,400
Speaker 2: get some defensive touchdowns again, they get a rematch with

1428
01:08:56,479 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 2: the Bengals, which has been giving up, by the way,

1429
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:03,000
Speaker 2: some defense of touchdowns, and maybe they've maybe they know

1430
01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:06,200
Speaker 2: their number at this point, and you know, with only

1431
01:09:06,200 --> 01:09:09,200
Speaker 2: a what twenty something percent chance for the playoffs, they've

1432
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 2: definitely got something to play for. So maybe maybe a

1433
01:09:12,400 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 2: defensive touchdown for the Ravens.

1434
01:09:15,120 --> 01:09:17,680
Speaker 1: I like that call, and I remember there being in

1435
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,559
Speaker 1: the DFS world, like a decade ago, there was a

1436
01:09:20,600 --> 01:09:23,479
Speaker 1: lot of talk about I haven't studied this in research

1437
01:09:23,560 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: this in detail. Maybe you have, maybe not, but this

1438
01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:26,759
Speaker 1: is something that we both can look at if we haven't.

1439
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:30,519
Speaker 1: The second time a divisional rival plays each other in

1440
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:34,840
Speaker 1: the in season, it's typically a lower scoring just not

1441
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:37,560
Speaker 1: as fantasy friendly type of performance.

1442
01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:41,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's really interesting and I haven't looked into it,

1443
01:09:40,520 --> 01:09:43,840
Speaker 2: but it always comes up that people say, oh, look

1444
01:09:43,840 --> 01:09:46,639
Speaker 2: at what happened last time that right, you know, Macpherson

1445
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:48,880
Speaker 2: scored twenty four points, and it's like, well, but that's

1446
01:09:48,880 --> 01:09:51,280
Speaker 2: not going to happen again. I mean, they've got to

1447
01:09:51,400 --> 01:09:54,599
Speaker 2: see each other and it's not something that repeats. There

1448
01:09:54,680 --> 01:09:58,120
Speaker 2: is something's got to change. So I think it's super interesting.

1449
01:09:58,240 --> 01:09:59,800
Speaker 2: I have not analyzed that yet.

1450
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:01,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to dig into it too, because I

1451
01:10:02,240 --> 01:10:03,680
Speaker 1: don't know why I haven't, because it's been in my

1452
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:05,840
Speaker 1: head for years now. I just haven't, you know, sat

1453
01:10:05,880 --> 01:10:07,600
Speaker 1: down to it because it's it's one of those like

1454
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:09,920
Speaker 1: very micro things that you know, may or may not

1455
01:10:10,000 --> 01:10:12,519
Speaker 1: even like yield much. But at this point in the

1456
01:10:13,040 --> 01:10:15,680
Speaker 1: data availability and the ease and kind of analyzing that

1457
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:17,320
Speaker 1: kind of thing, I do think that it could be.

1458
01:10:17,439 --> 01:10:19,280
Speaker 2: It could be interesting. I spend my time on all

1459
01:10:19,360 --> 01:10:20,880
Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. Are they going to kick more

1460
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:23,559
Speaker 2: in an international game? Dude? Tight ends? Score lower after

1461
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:27,439
Speaker 2: Monday game, like whatever, Like little micro advantages you can

1462
01:10:27,479 --> 01:10:28,600
Speaker 2: get like that.

1463
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:30,680
Speaker 3: That's awesome. That's what makes you you man, That's that's

1464
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:32,720
Speaker 3: why you've been crushing it. This.

1465
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 1: This has been such an awesome conversation. I think people

1466
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:37,200
Speaker 1: are going to really dig it. Shout out Reddit, Shout

1467
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:39,160
Speaker 1: out all the people over there. They get a bad

1468
01:10:39,240 --> 01:10:42,240
Speaker 1: rap over there, you know. There there's a lot of

1469
01:10:42,280 --> 01:10:44,840
Speaker 1: people in the fantasy space that don't like to get

1470
01:10:44,880 --> 01:10:45,839
Speaker 1: in the Reddit streets.

1471
01:10:46,320 --> 01:10:47,360
Speaker 3: But I'll say I'll.

1472
01:10:47,240 --> 01:10:50,320
Speaker 1: Say this, It's no different on any other social media platform.

1473
01:10:50,320 --> 01:10:51,840
Speaker 1: It's just the way that that's just the way that

1474
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:54,439
Speaker 1: it is. I think that if you come with good energy,

1475
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:57,400
Speaker 1: you'll get good energy back. Is my my general vibes.

1476
01:10:57,439 --> 01:11:00,439
Speaker 1: Sometimes I can be unnecessarily you know, rude, and I

1477
01:11:00,439 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 1: don't mean to. But if I see that I am,

1478
01:11:02,360 --> 01:11:05,320
Speaker 1: then someone responds back, and I probably deserved it.

1479
01:11:05,560 --> 01:11:07,559
Speaker 2: It's such a mix. I am so thankful to the

1480
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:09,719
Speaker 2: Reddit community. I mean, there have been so many people

1481
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:11,760
Speaker 2: who really dig the stuff and they want to get

1482
01:11:11,760 --> 01:11:15,000
Speaker 2: these like rational answers and want to know the analysis

1483
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:17,439
Speaker 2: and everything, and they have supported over the years. I mean,

1484
01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:19,000
Speaker 2: I would, like I said, I would have stopped if

1485
01:11:19,000 --> 01:11:22,680
Speaker 2: it wasn't didn't sort of trigger that that interest continually.

1486
01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:25,600
Speaker 2: There was, of course the other side as well, the

1487
01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:27,479
Speaker 2: toxicity and stuff that that was one of the things

1488
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:29,920
Speaker 2: where I was like, okay, you know, but you know,

1489
01:11:29,960 --> 01:11:32,240
Speaker 2: the mods have done I think an excellent job, have

1490
01:11:32,439 --> 01:11:36,120
Speaker 2: just toned down a lot. They keep it much better

1491
01:11:36,160 --> 01:11:40,599
Speaker 2: place to be. It's yeah, no, it's I continually look

1492
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:43,479
Speaker 2: forward to feedback. You know, every bit of criticism that

1493
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:45,960
Speaker 2: I've got, I try to well first to ask if

1494
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 2: it makes any sense at all, and then you know,

1495
01:11:48,280 --> 01:11:50,200
Speaker 2: take it to heart and see if I can improve things.

1496
01:11:50,280 --> 01:11:52,080
Speaker 2: And I think that's that's what it's about.

1497
01:11:52,360 --> 01:11:53,839
Speaker 3: I've always speaking of the criticism.

1498
01:11:53,880 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 1: Thing I've always said with Reddit, the thing that I

1499
01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:59,559
Speaker 1: love about it is that when people maybe say something

1500
01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:01,880
Speaker 1: negative at me, which is going to be frequent because

1501
01:12:01,920 --> 01:12:04,160
Speaker 1: you know, I'm publishing content and I'm putting myself out there,

1502
01:12:04,200 --> 01:12:05,920
Speaker 1: and you know people are going to get things wrong

1503
01:12:05,960 --> 01:12:06,880
Speaker 1: based on the things that I say.

1504
01:12:06,920 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 3: That's just part of the game, you know, that's just

1505
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 3: part of of what this is.

1506
01:12:09,439 --> 01:12:11,640
Speaker 1: And you know, the goal is that we're transparent and

1507
01:12:11,680 --> 01:12:13,160
Speaker 1: like I said, everything at the top, just to bring

1508
01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:14,400
Speaker 1: it all back together, you know.

1509
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:16,800
Speaker 3: The hope is that you know, people are understanding.

1510
01:12:17,120 --> 01:12:19,240
Speaker 1: But the thing that I've always said about Reddit that

1511
01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:21,839
Speaker 1: I love is that when I'm on Twitter, for instance,

1512
01:12:21,880 --> 01:12:25,200
Speaker 1: the other big sort of like big fantasy football platform

1513
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:27,599
Speaker 1: if you will. Obviously there's now TikTok and stuff, but

1514
01:12:27,680 --> 01:12:30,360
Speaker 1: like the place where people use words to speak to

1515
01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:33,960
Speaker 1: one another, uh in writing. The difference is that on Twitter,

1516
01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:36,880
Speaker 1: when people are going to criticize me, they'll do it

1517
01:12:36,920 --> 01:12:39,920
Speaker 1: where they're actually mentioning me and adding me right, so

1518
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:41,599
Speaker 1: that I see it in my mentions and they're trying

1519
01:12:41,600 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 1: to to troll in a way. The difference is that

1520
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:47,479
Speaker 1: very rarely am I actually getting tagged on Reddit, and

1521
01:12:47,560 --> 01:12:49,760
Speaker 1: so I can see what people are saying about me,

1522
01:12:50,320 --> 01:12:53,160
Speaker 1: and I use like I'll go through, you know, maybe

1523
01:12:53,200 --> 01:12:54,720
Speaker 1: once a week just to see kind of like what

1524
01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:56,680
Speaker 1: the temperature is about the content that I'm doing and

1525
01:12:56,680 --> 01:12:58,840
Speaker 1: stuff and seeing if people are talking about it. Not

1526
01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:01,760
Speaker 1: because like I need an ego booth. I'm trying to

1527
01:13:01,800 --> 01:13:04,719
Speaker 1: get better at what I'm doing, and if someone is saying, hey,

1528
01:13:04,760 --> 01:13:06,759
Speaker 1: I don't like the way that this is being presented

1529
01:13:06,880 --> 01:13:09,760
Speaker 1: or I don't but they're doing it without tagging me, right,

1530
01:13:10,000 --> 01:13:12,000
Speaker 1: and so they're not doing it to get under my skin.

1531
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:14,640
Speaker 3: They're doing it genuinely, genuinely.

1532
01:13:14,160 --> 01:13:17,200
Speaker 1: Believe that thing, you know, And I think that's that's

1533
01:13:17,240 --> 01:13:19,800
Speaker 1: more powerful to get better as an analyst and to

1534
01:13:19,840 --> 01:13:22,600
Speaker 1: get better as a as a presenter of information on

1535
01:13:22,680 --> 01:13:25,800
Speaker 1: podcasts and stuff than it is when someone's trying to

1536
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 1: get under your skin, you know, by by saying that

1537
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:30,920
Speaker 1: you're this or that and and tagging you in it.

1538
01:13:31,120 --> 01:13:33,040
Speaker 1: And I just want to say, you know, like like

1539
01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 1: it's great that Reddit has now connected us, and uh,

1540
01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 1: you know that you were able to get your voice

1541
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:43,840
Speaker 1: out there via Reddit because it's brilliant and you're doing amazing,

1542
01:13:43,880 --> 01:13:46,360
Speaker 1: amazing stuff, and I got to give Reddit and then

1543
01:13:46,360 --> 01:13:47,719
Speaker 1: the people have read it in the community.

1544
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:50,439
Speaker 3: Just a lot of props for you know, like giving

1545
01:13:50,520 --> 01:13:51,560
Speaker 3: multiple people.

1546
01:13:51,280 --> 01:13:54,639
Speaker 1: Platforms, like you know, like if there's good work, they're

1547
01:13:54,680 --> 01:13:56,800
Speaker 1: recognizing that good work. And it's great to see someone

1548
01:13:56,840 --> 01:13:59,479
Speaker 1: like you or someone like Andrew Cooper or whomever really

1549
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:02,120
Speaker 1: come out of that and be able to spread gospel

1550
01:14:02,160 --> 01:14:04,000
Speaker 1: about what they're creating in the fantasy space to more

1551
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:04,599
Speaker 1: and more people.

1552
01:14:05,040 --> 01:14:07,520
Speaker 2: That's right, No, I think it's it's it's been wonderful.

1553
01:14:07,720 --> 01:14:11,000
Speaker 2: I would like I do have to combine my rankings

1554
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:14,000
Speaker 2: with some of the OC you know, the content that

1555
01:14:14,080 --> 01:14:16,840
Speaker 2: I put out there sometimes because it does tend to

1556
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:18,840
Speaker 2: draw people that just want So that was a trick

1557
01:14:18,920 --> 01:14:20,400
Speaker 2: I had to learn a while ago, Like if I

1558
01:14:20,479 --> 01:14:22,200
Speaker 2: just put out this study like I did yesterday, I

1559
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:25,479
Speaker 2: should do pair your DST against the other players, Like

1560
01:14:26,000 --> 01:14:28,719
Speaker 2: I think the visibility would have been extremely low on that.

1561
01:14:29,000 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 2: Reddit has changed a lot in recent year. People use

1562
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:33,840
Speaker 2: it almost like Twitter, like so they just read the

1563
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:37,000
Speaker 2: headline and yeah, yeah, like they just want like and

1564
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:39,720
Speaker 2: that's been the most frustrating part I think recently for

1565
01:14:40,120 --> 01:14:43,479
Speaker 2: me is that you know, you'll get like Buckey Irving

1566
01:14:43,680 --> 01:14:46,120
Speaker 2: was seen at practice on Wednesday and it's like is

1567
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:47,840
Speaker 2: that you know, and it's be like a thousand up

1568
01:14:47,880 --> 01:14:50,559
Speaker 2: folks thing, such a low effort, and then I got this,

1569
01:14:50,760 --> 01:14:55,439
Speaker 2: like you know, ten hours of analysis and it's like, yeah,

1570
01:14:55,520 --> 01:14:56,480
Speaker 2: so that's.

1571
01:14:56,520 --> 01:14:57,759
Speaker 3: So don't stop. Don't stop.

1572
01:14:57,840 --> 01:15:00,839
Speaker 1: It's important to not stop doing that based on that reaction,

1573
01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:03,880
Speaker 1: you know. Like it's it's like I say all the time,

1574
01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:07,320
Speaker 1: like I do this, you know, I'm very thankful that

1575
01:15:07,400 --> 01:15:09,680
Speaker 1: I can now do this and support my family and

1576
01:15:09,720 --> 01:15:11,880
Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff, but like this has been

1577
01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:16,799
Speaker 1: completely drawn from passion and it's never gonna go away.

1578
01:15:17,120 --> 01:15:19,120
Speaker 1: And if you hear me get excited on the podcast

1579
01:15:19,120 --> 01:15:21,679
Speaker 1: and my voice gets high, and I get, it's because I.

1580
01:15:21,600 --> 01:15:22,400
Speaker 3: Love this stuff.

1581
01:15:22,439 --> 01:15:24,679
Speaker 1: And you wouldn't want me to not love this stuff,

1582
01:15:24,760 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 1: you know, like because then you're not getting, you know,

1583
01:15:27,280 --> 01:15:29,160
Speaker 1: the fantasy content that I think you deserve.

1584
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:32,080
Speaker 3: You know, that to me is what's really really important.

1585
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:33,680
Speaker 2: I too have a tendency to get carried away. I

1586
01:15:33,720 --> 01:15:35,600
Speaker 2: don't know if my voice goes high or whatever, but

1587
01:15:36,720 --> 01:15:39,080
Speaker 2: I definitely write too much sometime, and I think, actually,

1588
01:15:39,080 --> 01:15:41,000
Speaker 2: the thing I need to and I'm starting to get

1589
01:15:41,000 --> 01:15:44,760
Speaker 2: better at, is simplifying things, making it contextualized, to sort

1590
01:15:44,800 --> 01:15:48,240
Speaker 2: of really simplify and get the message, because that's what's

1591
01:15:48,280 --> 01:15:52,120
Speaker 2: important to me, is really getting people to get that

1592
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:54,559
Speaker 2: feeling like, ah, I get it, I got that insight now,

1593
01:15:54,600 --> 01:15:56,720
Speaker 2: And I think that's what you're really into too, and

1594
01:15:56,840 --> 01:15:59,640
Speaker 2: you know that that's rewarding, and it's it's this like empowerment,

1595
01:15:59,760 --> 01:16:01,280
Speaker 2: like Okay, I know how to play the game now.

1596
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:02,240
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah.

1597
01:16:02,320 --> 01:16:05,120
Speaker 1: And and honestly from from my perspective, and I know

1598
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:07,160
Speaker 1: that we're kind of just rambling talking about random stuff

1599
01:16:07,200 --> 01:16:09,439
Speaker 1: right now, but hopefully people are digging it. But like,

1600
01:16:09,840 --> 01:16:12,720
Speaker 1: to me, it's like it's so cool that we get

1601
01:16:12,720 --> 01:16:15,280
Speaker 1: to kind of go in this lab and and and

1602
01:16:15,280 --> 01:16:17,880
Speaker 1: and figure stuff out that has not been studied or

1603
01:16:17,920 --> 01:16:22,160
Speaker 1: researched or figured out. And then you're so vulnerable and

1604
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:25,360
Speaker 1: putting it out there. And I'm not saying okay when

1605
01:16:25,400 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 1: I say so vulnerable, I know it's just fantasy football, guys.

1606
01:16:28,040 --> 01:16:30,080
Speaker 3: I know that this is not like life or death.

1607
01:16:30,160 --> 01:16:33,120
Speaker 1: But it's one of the like you're open for criticism

1608
01:16:33,120 --> 01:16:36,000
Speaker 1: because you're putting yourself out there and you're you've researched

1609
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:37,360
Speaker 1: all this stuff and you think you have this great

1610
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:40,439
Speaker 1: idea and sometimes it goes really south, and you know,

1611
01:16:40,520 --> 01:16:41,920
Speaker 1: sometimes it goes really really well.

1612
01:16:42,200 --> 01:16:43,240
Speaker 3: But that's so cool.

1613
01:16:43,360 --> 01:16:45,160
Speaker 1: It's just such a cool thing to be able to

1614
01:16:45,160 --> 01:16:46,519
Speaker 1: do and to be able to have that platform, and

1615
01:16:46,560 --> 01:16:49,000
Speaker 1: it's important. And again I'm going to stress this, like,

1616
01:16:49,600 --> 01:16:53,080
Speaker 1: it's very easy to be defeated in seeing a threadbro

1617
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:56,759
Speaker 1: on Twitter, you know, putting some some garbage stuff together,

1618
01:16:57,000 --> 01:16:58,920
Speaker 1: or you know, seeing the up votes for like a

1619
01:16:59,040 --> 01:17:02,800
Speaker 1: really uh easy low hanging fruit post on Reddit. But

1620
01:17:02,920 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 1: I do think that it is important to have voices

1621
01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:09,040
Speaker 1: in the space that are doing really really good work

1622
01:17:09,040 --> 01:17:12,200
Speaker 1: and that's exactly what you're doing, absolutely, and it.

1623
01:17:12,160 --> 01:17:14,080
Speaker 2: Really helps to have their input as well, like when

1624
01:17:14,120 --> 01:17:15,840
Speaker 2: they I mean a lot of the studies are just

1625
01:17:15,920 --> 01:17:19,760
Speaker 2: inspired by somebody like saying they know something or they

1626
01:17:19,760 --> 01:17:22,240
Speaker 2: have this. Yeah, yeah, the one I got the biggest

1627
01:17:22,320 --> 01:17:24,240
Speaker 2: you mentioned the backlash. I think one of the most

1628
01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:27,960
Speaker 2: controversial ones I put was if a kicker has multiple

1629
01:17:28,840 --> 01:17:32,320
Speaker 2: double digit weeks they scored ten to twelve, fifteen, whatever, Yeah,

1630
01:17:32,320 --> 01:17:35,720
Speaker 2: then they're going to score double digit the following week

1631
01:17:35,760 --> 01:17:38,479
Speaker 2: as well. So I just pulled out data and said,

1632
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:41,640
Speaker 2: look it actually it basically the attrition rated half, so like,

1633
01:17:41,680 --> 01:17:43,760
Speaker 2: you know, there's like a fifty to fifty chance at

1634
01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:46,240
Speaker 2: any point along a streak that they're going to drop out,

1635
01:17:46,320 --> 01:17:49,679
Speaker 2: and that that's somehow that was probably one of the

1636
01:17:49,680 --> 01:17:53,000
Speaker 2: most like angry sounding responses. I think, what was it

1637
01:17:53,120 --> 01:17:56,400
Speaker 2: myers at the time, someone that they really wanted to

1638
01:17:56,439 --> 01:17:59,080
Speaker 2: believe it was going to continue. But yeah, anyway, but

1639
01:17:59,120 --> 01:18:01,960
Speaker 2: it's just about you know, I don't regret that. I

1640
01:18:01,960 --> 01:18:05,439
Speaker 2: think that's actually it was a wonderful take and I

1641
01:18:05,479 --> 01:18:07,920
Speaker 2: think you know a lot of people really dug what

1642
01:18:08,040 --> 01:18:09,320
Speaker 2: was behind that, and yeah.

1643
01:18:09,160 --> 01:18:12,080
Speaker 1: We should be That's what this is about, man, We're

1644
01:18:12,120 --> 01:18:14,880
Speaker 1: having like it's important to have conversations with people.

1645
01:18:15,240 --> 01:18:16,280
Speaker 3: And that's why when like.

1646
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:18,960
Speaker 1: People like just just ignore people who are criticizing your

1647
01:18:18,960 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 1: work or whatever, it's like, no, I want to just

1648
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:23,080
Speaker 1: converse with people. I just want to have conversations and

1649
01:18:23,520 --> 01:18:24,760
Speaker 1: get better at what I'm doing.

1650
01:18:24,800 --> 01:18:26,840
Speaker 3: If someone's saying something negative.

1651
01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:28,400
Speaker 1: About what's going on, I want to know why that's

1652
01:18:28,439 --> 01:18:30,280
Speaker 1: the case, and then I want to dig into the

1653
01:18:30,280 --> 01:18:33,679
Speaker 1: why and see, like, oh, is there a blind spot

1654
01:18:33,720 --> 01:18:36,080
Speaker 1: in my analysis that I can get better? Because I

1655
01:18:36,120 --> 01:18:38,240
Speaker 1: want to be good at this, you know, I want

1656
01:18:38,240 --> 01:18:40,719
Speaker 1: to be able to give good advice and have people

1657
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:43,439
Speaker 1: listen and keep coming back because the conversations and these

1658
01:18:43,479 --> 01:18:44,839
Speaker 1: relationships are just so important.

1659
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:47,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, like strategy, it feels so much better to

1660
01:18:47,439 --> 01:18:49,800
Speaker 2: play when you know what's going on. Yes, Like, yes,

1661
01:18:49,920 --> 01:18:52,320
Speaker 2: I sorry if I'm just dragging this out, but I

1662
01:18:52,320 --> 01:18:54,960
Speaker 2: did you know another one I just completed recently Again

1663
01:18:55,080 --> 01:18:59,120
Speaker 2: I repeated, was you know, do quarterbacks throw more in

1664
01:18:59,200 --> 01:19:02,360
Speaker 2: garbage time? Like if their defense is bad? Right? And

1665
01:19:02,439 --> 01:19:04,599
Speaker 2: that has been an assumption for a long time, like, oh,

1666
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:06,720
Speaker 2: you pick them, they're des bad, they got to keep

1667
01:19:06,800 --> 01:19:08,679
Speaker 2: up with the game, And it turns out no, there's

1668
01:19:08,720 --> 01:19:11,080
Speaker 2: actually no basis when you've divide it up, And I

1669
01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:12,599
Speaker 2: think that's just like super interesting.

1670
01:19:13,240 --> 01:19:17,000
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, especially because like that's the way and people.

1671
01:19:17,479 --> 01:19:20,000
Speaker 3: The other thing to that, again we are rambling.

1672
01:19:20,040 --> 01:19:23,519
Speaker 1: But the other thing to that is that when when

1673
01:19:23,520 --> 01:19:27,120
Speaker 1: we have these narratives, we then attribute those narratives to

1674
01:19:27,240 --> 01:19:30,040
Speaker 1: why things go down the way they go down without

1675
01:19:30,080 --> 01:19:33,680
Speaker 1: actually attributing it to the actual quarterback performance. Right, So

1676
01:19:33,800 --> 01:19:36,960
Speaker 1: like Dak Prescott playing on Dallas this year. You know,

1677
01:19:37,080 --> 01:19:40,320
Speaker 1: everyone's like, oh, this is the correctly, this is the

1678
01:19:40,320 --> 01:19:41,160
Speaker 1: the Bengals of.

1679
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:43,120
Speaker 3: Twenty twenty five, right, because the Bengals last year had

1680
01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:44,040
Speaker 3: that horrible defense.

1681
01:19:44,200 --> 01:19:48,040
Speaker 1: But the like, realistically, you need a really good quarterback

1682
01:19:48,080 --> 01:19:50,600
Speaker 1: to be in that position more than likely to be

1683
01:19:50,600 --> 01:19:53,920
Speaker 1: able to actually like take advantage of that. It can't

1684
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:56,600
Speaker 1: just be any old guy that's going to be in

1685
01:19:56,640 --> 01:19:58,120
Speaker 1: these negative game scripts.

1686
01:19:57,760 --> 01:19:59,760
Speaker 3: To be able to perform in that way.

1687
01:19:59,600 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 1: They don't need to be good and efficient, you know,

1688
01:20:01,439 --> 01:20:03,800
Speaker 1: and and that, and so like you're you're saying, oh,

1689
01:20:03,920 --> 01:20:06,599
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow was was good because he had that bad defense,

1690
01:20:06,640 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 1: So like you still have to be a good quarterback

1691
01:20:08,439 --> 01:20:09,519
Speaker 1: to be able to do what he's doing.

1692
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:10,840
Speaker 3: From a numbers perspective, you know.

1693
01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:14,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, And it's not correlated necessarily with the defense.

1694
01:20:14,280 --> 01:20:16,400
Speaker 2: It is, however, interestingly, and because you can do that

1695
01:20:16,439 --> 01:20:19,040
Speaker 2: with the data actually divide it up, it is correlated

1696
01:20:19,080 --> 01:20:20,840
Speaker 2: with the opposing offensive power.

1697
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:24,240
Speaker 3: So yes, actually right, actually high high game totals and

1698
01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:24,479
Speaker 3: all that.

1699
01:20:24,840 --> 01:20:27,240
Speaker 2: So the idea of a shootout or whatever, that's valid.

1700
01:20:27,640 --> 01:20:29,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, this was great.

1701
01:20:29,439 --> 01:20:31,200
Speaker 1: Let everyone know where they can find you, and and

1702
01:20:31,320 --> 01:20:32,720
Speaker 1: the things that you're working on and what they can

1703
01:20:32,720 --> 01:20:33,200
Speaker 1: look forward to.

1704
01:20:33,320 --> 01:20:35,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to keep up fighting a good fight.

1705
01:20:35,320 --> 01:20:38,760
Speaker 2: And yeah, there's like you said, no stopping it. It's

1706
01:20:38,840 --> 01:20:41,040
Speaker 2: just too interesting stuff and there's a lot more to come.

1707
01:20:41,160 --> 01:20:45,000
Speaker 2: So I'm really excited also for for the next year.

1708
01:20:45,000 --> 01:20:46,519
Speaker 2: This has been one of the best years. I think

1709
01:20:46,720 --> 01:20:49,519
Speaker 2: it's going to be hard to yeah to the top,

1710
01:20:49,600 --> 01:20:50,559
Speaker 2: but keep trying.

1711
01:20:50,920 --> 01:20:52,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, you got to stay ahead, got to stay ahead.

1712
01:20:52,680 --> 01:20:55,479
Speaker 2: So subvert it down dot subverted down dot com.

1713
01:20:55,560 --> 01:20:58,280
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, awesome, man, I really appreciate it.

1714
01:20:58,560 --> 01:21:00,759
Speaker 1: As always, you guys can check out my stuff lateround

1715
01:21:00,760 --> 01:21:03,800
Speaker 1: dot com. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel

1716
01:21:03,840 --> 01:21:07,400
Speaker 1: YouTube dot com slash at late round f F but otherwise everyone,

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01:21:08,240 --> 01:21:09,120
Speaker 1: thanks for tuning in.