1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: Also media, welcome back to it could happen here a 2 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: podcast where Robert Evans is lying down on a couch 3 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: because he just feels exhausted from sleeping a leven full hours. Garrison, 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: you were much younger than me and don't seem to 5 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: feel exhausted because you just woke up after staying up 6 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: all night, did you? Yeah? 7 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 2: No, not as exhausted. 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: I hate do not hate you? 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 2: Do you do? You know what is exhausting? Robert? 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: Elections? 11 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: The twenty twenty four presidential election. 12 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: The twenty twenty four presidential election. Yeah, I hate it. 13 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: I hate it, Garrison, I hate it. But also I 14 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: have made a commitment. I have made a commitment to 15 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: making a prediction about the election this year and sticking 16 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: to it even though it's going to make everybody angry. 17 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: And I have a good reason for doing so. It's 18 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: because I want to try one of the rarest drugs 19 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: that exists in the world today. That Nate Silver Shit. See, 20 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: everyone's been wondering since like twenty twenty's what's up with 21 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: that guy? Did he like lose his mind? Was he 22 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:17,919 Speaker 1: always kind of like out there and we just didn't 23 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: notice because he he got lucky a couple of elections 24 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 1: in a row. And the answer to that is no, 25 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: Nate was a pretty reasonable guy. He comes out of 26 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: like not politics. He only got into politics in two 27 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: thousand and six because they banned online gambling and he 28 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: got angry about it. And then he accurately predicted the 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight and twenty twelve elections. 30 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 2: Which wasn't hard to be frin, It wasn't hard. 31 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: No, it was not. I mean, he got all the 32 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: states right, but it was just a matter because people 33 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: have pointed out he didn't seem to be nearly as 34 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: accurate in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty. There's a degree 35 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: of fairness to that, but like twight and twenty twelve 36 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: were our last non smartphone elections where they're wasn't this 37 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: like big you know, demon of social media kind of 38 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: hiding behind everything and making everything a lot weirder? And 39 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: I think part of you know, I think what ultimately 40 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: caused Nate's madness, though, is that in twenty sixteen he 41 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 1: did pretty well. He like laid out he was a 42 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: twenty nine percent chance of Trump winning, and when he 43 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: like explained what that chance was, how Trump might sweep 44 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: the blue Firewall States and whatnot. It's basically what wound 45 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: up happening, and as like a reward for being more 46 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: or less correct. While the election was going on, all 47 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: of the Democrats hated him because the news sources they 48 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: liked said that Trump had only a two percent chance 49 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: of winning, and then when the election was over, it 50 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: became like mainstream kind of reality to just say, Yeahate, 51 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: Nate fucked that one up. He finally screwed up, And 52 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: I think that that mix of things is what's driven 53 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: him insane. So I've decided to predict that there's a 54 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: twenty nine percent chance that the election is basically the 55 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: same as twenty twenty. And now, unlike Nate, I don't 56 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,679 Speaker 1: have any kind of math to back that up. It's 57 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: just a gut feeling. But I'm I'm calling that now 58 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 1: because I want people to get really angry at me now, 59 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: and then ideally, when I'm right, they'll get even angrier 60 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: at me, and then I can go and say it 61 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: on social media and just gradly become completely unhinged and 62 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: see what it's like to be Nate Silver, the ultimate 63 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: high Garrison. 64 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 2: See, I thought you were gonna say you thought there 65 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 2: was a twenty nine percent chance that Nate Silver would 66 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 2: just completely completely lose it and do some like like you. 67 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: Do a major terrorism. 68 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, absolutely what I thought. 69 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, he drives a double decker bus into the end 70 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: of the Lincoln Memorial. God, that's my that's my hope. 71 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: He storms the five thirty eight headquarters. 72 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's gonna take it back once and for all. 73 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 2: Okay, so today we're going to be talking about election polling. 74 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: The debate is very very soon here in Atlanta, Georgia, 75 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 2: and as a little bit of a preparatory measure, we 76 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 2: want to go over some of the actual poll numbers 77 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 2: for the twenty twenty four presidential election. I like to 78 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 2: start with this Iowa poe from Seltzer and Co. Now, 79 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 2: Iowa's a weird one, right. Iowa has has gone read 80 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: pretty consistently the past two years, although twenty twenty was 81 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 2: closer than twenty sixteen. In twenty twenty, Trump won the 82 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 2: state by fifty three point one percent to Biden's forty 83 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 2: four point nine percent. But the numbers right now are 84 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: much much worse for Biden. Not good, No, it's it's 85 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 2: it's pretty bad. Trum Trump is leading Biden in the 86 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 2: general election in Iowa by eighteen percentage points, and third 87 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 2: party candidates, including Kennedy and the libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, 88 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 2: are receiving a combined fifteen percent support. It's it's pretty bad. 89 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 2: It hasn't been this bad in a while. Now. People 90 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 2: like to use this specific Iowa poll as kind of 91 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 2: a barometer for the Midwest in general, and that's, you know, 92 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 2: not completely accurate all the time, but it is something 93 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 2: that people do consistently point to as a general barometer 94 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 2: for Trump's possible success in the Midwest. Now we have 95 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 2: Yes Minnesota. 96 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 1: Day because one of the most probably the most viable 97 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 1: path to Biden winning involves holding that quote unquote blue firewall, 98 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: which doesn't include Iowa obviously, it does include Michigan and Wisconsin, 99 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: both of which are generally within the margin of error 100 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: in most polls but looking very sketchy for Biden compared 101 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: to how he would like them to be at this point. 102 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 2: Wisconsin's not looking great. Minnesota, according to a Survey USA 103 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 2: poll from just a few days ago, Biden is up 104 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 2: six points. 105 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: Yes, Yes, Michigan is I think the one I was 106 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: saying is a little closer. 107 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's kind of the situation with this poll. 108 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 2: And I'm not going to get into any of the 109 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 2: more specific numbers because the numbers in this Iowa poll 110 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 2: are going to be actually pretty reminiscent of more more 111 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 2: of the general election numbers which we're going to get into, 112 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: especially when we're going to start factoring in things like 113 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: the conviction and Trump's popularity among independence, which could very 114 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 2: well be a major deciding factor in this election. So 115 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 2: I'm going to quote from Forbes here. Quote. Trump leads 116 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: Biden by one point fifty to forty nine percent in 117 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 2: a CBS poll released Sunday that comes after a streak 118 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: of surveys found Trump's lead has slipped since his felony 119 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 2: conviction Manhattan last month, including a Fox News survey released Wednesday, 120 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 2: the nineteenth that shows Biden up by two points, a 121 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 2: three point swing since the network's May survey. This was 122 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 2: among a streak of five polls since mid June that 123 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: show Biden beating or tied with Trump unquote. So Biden 124 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 2: has made some considerable progress in the polls in the 125 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 2: past month. Biden and Trump are now tied in the 126 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 2: Morning Consults Weekly survey, as Biden has now been leading 127 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 2: Trump by a point in for two weeks in a row. 128 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 2: A month prior, Trump was way way ahead of Biden, 129 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 2: and the two are also tied in the Economist YouGov 130 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 2: survey released last Thursday, as well as a PBST Marrist 131 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: pull from Tuesday the eighteenth. 132 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's a couple of things. I mean, like, 133 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: it's easy to say that's probably due to the conviction, 134 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: because that's the biggest thing that's happened since then. But 135 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: I also think there's a decent chance that some of 136 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: that is just the result of the fact that Trump 137 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: is now definitely the nominee, which was a little more 138 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: up in the air previously, so now people are kind 139 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: of forced to consider what that really means. But it 140 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: does seem in general like there's been motion and like 141 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: things have been moving in Biden's favor since the conviction. 142 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: So I don't think it's wrong to say that probably 143 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: overall the evidence suggests helps Biden at this point. 144 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, And the Fox News survey is really interesting because 145 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 2: they have this They have it on a graph here, 146 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 2: and you can see Biden steadily moving upwards on the 147 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 2: graph very consistently, and Trump has largely flatlined. If not 148 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 2: is actually kind of moving a little bit down. Robert F. 149 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 2: Kennedy Junior is also moving quite down. Yeah, not completely 150 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 2: surprising considering the whole brain brainworms thing. 151 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: He's going to be the most interesting thing. I mean, 152 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: not the most interesting thing, because whether or not Trump 153 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: wins could mean whether or not we are able to 154 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: continue doing what we do. But RFK is kind of 155 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: the most interesting thing for me in terms of like, 156 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: are is it going to Is there going to be 157 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: any kind of evidence that there's actually real hunger for 158 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: a third party which everyone keeps talking about. Is this 159 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 1: constant topic of discussion in US politics, but it never happens, 160 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: and people were getting very RFK is obviously a bad 161 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: guy to pin your hopes on a viable third party on, 162 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: but I am interested to see if if it because 163 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 1: there's a decent evidence that the primary chunk because when 164 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: you factor in RFK, Biden's lead doesn't go down, right, 165 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: because RFK is really popular among a lot of the 166 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: independence that Trump is already strong with. And yeah, so 167 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: the big question is like, is he going to drain 168 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: votes from Trump or just kind of fizzle out? And 169 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: I think right now the smart money is kind of 170 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 1: on fizzling out. But it's it's a little hard to say. 171 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 2: Do you know what we can say for sure? 172 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: Though, Robert that uh, Robert F. Kennedy Junior is the 173 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: primary sponsor of this podcast. 174 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 2: God, I hope, so, I hope, I really hope we 175 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 2: start getting some RFK ads on here. 176 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 1: Look, folks, if you if you're not sure whether or 177 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: not you want to vote for RFK, we get it. 178 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 1: You know, obviously it's a this is a big choice. 179 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 1: But our recommendation is head down to the Gulf of 180 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: Galveston and shove your head in that in that Texas 181 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: coast water, get a couple of amibas rattling around on 182 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 1: that brainy ores, and then see how you feel about 183 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: our FK Junior. You know, all right, we are back. 184 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about independence, because this voting 185 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: block will basically be the deciding factor in this whole election. 186 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 2: So that PBS Marrist poll that found Trump and Biden 187 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 2: tied also found that Trump has lost six points with 188 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 2: independence compared to their poll taken just before his conviction 189 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 2: last May, and Biden has gained eight points with independence 190 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 2: and now leads Trump by two points in that category. 191 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 2: And Similarly, the Fox poll also shows Biden leading by 192 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 2: nine points among Independence. 193 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: And that's a massive, like shift. That's enough of a 194 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: shift that I wonder how much polling methodology maybe to 195 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: explain for it, Like were they just pulling these people? 196 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: Were they pulling them badly before? Or are they pulling 197 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: them badly now? Because that's that's quite a lot of movement. 198 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 2: We'll talk a little bit about pulling methodology here at 199 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 2: the end, because it might. Yeah, it is, certainly the 200 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 2: polling methodology produces a large degree of the numbers. A 201 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 2: lot of these polls have a margin of error of 202 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 2: about three point five percent, but this this finding is 203 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 2: consistent across almost every single poll being done right now. 204 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 2: A political Ipsos poll from mid June found that thirty 205 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 2: two percent of Independence say they are now less likely 206 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 2: to support Trump after his conviction, with twenty one percent 207 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 2: saying it would be an important factor in their vote. 208 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: Yep, and I did. This is the kind when we 209 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: were taught would talk in the group chat before the conviction. 210 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: I would. I made a note a couple of times 211 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: of the fact that there's a sizeable number of Americans 212 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: who are not what you'd call high information voters but 213 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: just feel really gross about voting for a felon. And 214 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 1: I think these are the kind of people who are 215 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: independence a lot of the times. They're not people who 216 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 1: think much about politics. They're people who make. 217 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 2: The most part of him typically yeah. 218 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And they can kind of make a swing, 219 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: gut decision on either of these guys in a moment. 220 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,319 Speaker 1: And if you tell well, he's a felon, that matters 221 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: to some people. There's like the this frustrates a lot 222 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 1: of like high information political analysts, the fact that so 223 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: many Americans kind of like make almost random decisions like 224 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: the slip of a coid calls about what to do, but. 225 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 2: Which is also what makes polling very hard. Is right, 226 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 2: But all polls also indicate that this will probably be 227 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 2: a much closer election than twenty twenties, and in an 228 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 2: election this close, small shifts among independents could very well 229 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 2: determine the outcome. Now, I'm going to quote from that 230 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 2: Political Episos report on their own poll quote quote a 231 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 2: plurality respondence. In our poll, thirty eight percent reported that 232 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 2: Trump's conviction would have no impact on their likelihood to 233 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 2: support Trump for president. Thirty three percent of respondent said 234 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 2: that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump, 235 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: while only seventeen percent said it made them more likely. 236 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 2: These results were worse for Trunk. Among respondents who said 237 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 2: they were political independents, thirty two percent said that the 238 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 2: conviction made them less likely to support and only twelve 239 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 2: said that it made them more likely to support Trump unquote. 240 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 2: And that same poll also found that nine percent of 241 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 2: Republicans say they're now less likely to support Trump. 242 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, which is massive, and that that actually makes me 243 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 1: want to bring up one of the guys the analysts 244 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: I've been reading, because this is actually the extent that 245 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: there's any real basis behind my twenty nine percent chance 246 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 1: things work out. Basically, like twenty twenty one, it's this this, 247 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: this fucking dude Helmet Norpoth norpoth Is. He's one of 248 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: these guys who's built a model, Like you get these 249 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 1: every now and then, like because they're great content for 250 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: TV news. Dudes like, oh, this guy's got a model 251 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: predict the election. His model predicted the last forty elections properly, 252 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: even though they like ran them through after we knew 253 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: how the elections were going to go. And I don't 254 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: know how fair that is. Helmet actually did accurately predict 255 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: a couple of like the last he's had his model 256 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: going the primary model for like the last seven elections, 257 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: and it predicted five of them correctly. Now, one it 258 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: got right was twenty sixteen, although it predicted how Trump 259 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: was going to win wrong, it got that he was 260 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: going to win right. I don't know how much credence 261 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: you want to give that. And he fucked up in 262 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, although you know the fact that there was 263 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: a pandemic, then I'll give him a little bit of grace. 264 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: The other one he fucked up was twenty was two thousand, 265 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: but he called it. He called it for Gore. So yeah, Well, 266 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: and I'll read from his website describing like how this 267 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: works because it's relevant to what you're talking about in 268 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: terms of independent voters, and it's also relevant to what 269 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: I think is another major factor and who's going to 270 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: ultimately when, which is likely voters versus like correct If 271 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: I feel like it, I'll vote because Biden's lead jumps 272 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: substantially when you consider likely voters correct, whereas Trump does 273 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: very well with like maybe voters. And I kind of 274 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 1: don't feel like this is going to be a high 275 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: turnout election, right, That's that's what I am seeing. 276 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 2: We have some data on this that I'll talk about later. 277 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and Helmet's model works that way. So quote, 278 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: the primary model gives President Joe Biden a seventy five 279 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: percent chance to defeat Donald Trump in November. This forecast 280 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: takes account of the performance of the two candidates in 281 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: the early primaries. Biden won the Democratic contest in those 282 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: states by far larger margins than tru in Republican once. 283 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 1: What also benefits Biden and the general election is an 284 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 1: electoral cycle that fits the sitting president in a nutshell. 285 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: A White House incumbent facing no significant challenge in primaries 286 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: almost always wins reelection. As for the electoral college, the 287 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: most likely outcome of the twenty twenty four election predicted 288 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: by the model is that Biden will get three fifteen 289 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: and Trump two two three And basically, so part of 290 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: why I think this guy's probably a hack, but it's 291 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: kind of interesting is he's looking at how they performed 292 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: relative to each other in their primaries and could there's 293 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: a degree to which you can say, like, well, primaries 294 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: are absolutely not general elections. But what it does show 295 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 1: is relative how much Trump's support has faded from Republicans, 296 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: and Trump actually did considerably less well in the primaries 297 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: than he did in twenty twenty. Right totally, there was 298 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 1: a degree of actual like hunger to vote for Kerry Lake, 299 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: whom I think is the Arizona right candidate who was 300 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: running a gagainst him, and he showed weakness in a 301 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: number of primary states that was not there in twenty twenty, 302 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: which suggests, along with the polling you showed, you know 303 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: that like nine percent of Republicans are less likely to 304 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: vote from after the conviction, an amount of weakness in 305 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: his base that could be pretty meaningful when we get 306 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: to the election. And I don't think it's been taken 307 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: into account enough by, for example, folks on the left 308 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: looking at how much everybody hates Joe Biden, which is 309 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: also a very real factor. But I think that people 310 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: are kind of denying the degree to which a lot 311 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: of folks who should be his base don't like Trump anymore. 312 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is one of the weird things. Post 313 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 2: to conviction, there were some pundits who were trying to 314 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 2: make an argument that somehow the conviction would actually make 315 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 2: Trump a more popular choice, which maybe works if you're 316 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 2: like a contrarian, but it doesn't really make much sense. 317 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 2: And if you look at like the approval ratings for 318 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 2: the conviction and the verdict, they fall pretty pretty well 319 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 2: on party lines. It's really going to come down to independence. 320 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 2: And like everyone who's going to vote for Trump, who 321 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 2: like really really really want to vote for Trump, are 322 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 2: still going to vote for Trump, right, Like that's that's 323 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 2: that's how it goes. 324 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 1: Absolutely not, and they will buy the I'm voting for 325 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 1: a felon hats that Facebook keeps trying to sell. 326 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: Mate absolutely right, Like, those are not the people that 327 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 2: are in question, but there is a large number of 328 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 2: other people who do not own a mega hat who 329 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 2: are actually, you know, questionable in who they're going to 330 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 2: vote for. On this note, I'd like to like to 331 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 2: quote again from Forbes quote. Polls consistently show the conviction 332 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: is a low priority for most voters in deciding who 333 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 2: to actually cast their ballot for. The political Ipsos poll 334 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 2: found that fifty three percent said it's not important, so 335 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 2: that it's not important to their voting decision, while sixty 336 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 2: one percent in a Reuter's full released last week said 337 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 2: it won't impact their vote unquote. Now, one of the 338 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 2: clearer shifts that we have seen post verdict is a 339 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 2: sizable increase in Biden voters who list stopping Trump as 340 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 2: one of their main reasons to do so. This we 341 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 2: have numbers from March to now, is that the main 342 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,880 Speaker 2: reason for supporting Biden. In March, we had forty seven 343 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 2: percent saying it's to oppose Trump. Now it's fifty four 344 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 2: percent saying it's to oppost Trump. Which I think that 345 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 2: number will only increase the closer we get to the election, 346 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 2: because people don't want Trump to be president again, even 347 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 2: though they don't like Biden. 348 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 3: Like. 349 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 2: The other thing with these numbers is that the percent 350 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 2: of people who say I like Biden as reason for 351 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 2: supporting him has decreased since March. Yes, yes, it's decreased 352 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 2: by four percent. 353 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: Of course, because he's not likable and he's he shouldn't 354 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: be president still. But Trump is even like and people 355 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 1: understand like I that is the number one thing. When 356 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 1: I go out of like my the bubble of my 357 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: friends and whatnot and talk to family members or just 358 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: like have conversations with right like uber drivers or whatnot 359 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: about politics, I have not heard a single person state 360 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: a reason for vote. They want to vote for Biden. 361 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: That is more important than I don't want Trump to 362 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: be president. That is everyone that I encounter basically like 363 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: I'm I'm obviously you have other people, but it is 364 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: weird to the extent to which that's what this election 365 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: is going to come down on. And I kind of 366 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: think it's evidence that of a failure and strategy in 367 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: Trump's part, because I think he probably could do better 368 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 1: if he were to focus on allaying those fears that 369 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: he wants to become a dictator as opposed to harping 370 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: on like one of the things that's interesting to me. 371 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: He's campaigning very heavily in Wisconsin right now. He's already 372 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: made like two visits just to southeast Wisconsin in the 373 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: last two months. Because Wisconsin is up for grabs right 374 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: Every poll I've seen basically is within margin of air. 375 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: It's either guy's game, and it's a critical state. And 376 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 1: Trump is hammering Biden on crime in Wisconsin right like, 377 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: look at how your dims have done, look at how 378 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: much more violent this city's become. And about one percent 379 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: of registered voters in Wisconsin consider crime a major concern 380 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: and a presidential election. And part of that's because, like, 381 00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 1: violent crime has dropped and like massively in Wisconsin and 382 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: wide over the last year. And I do wonder the 383 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: extent to which, because Americans views on crime are not 384 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: based on how bad crime actually is. But I also 385 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 1: wonder if people are start like the degree to which 386 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: that's a voting concern for people is fading because it 387 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: has dropped so much. And I'll be curious to see 388 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: if kind of Trump's strategy of hammering the Democrats because 389 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: they're bad on crime is going to prove to be 390 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: a serious misstep. 391 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 2: Well, even Fox News has had to do recent segments 392 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,439 Speaker 2: talking about how there actually has been a drop in crime, 393 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 2: even though Americans feel like it hasn't, which is a 394 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 2: quite funny little tidbit. We're all looking for the guy 395 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 2: who did this moment. Now, I do want to get 396 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 2: through a few more conviction numbers. I'm going to quote 397 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 2: from Politicalist report on their own poll regarding the importance 398 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 2: of the conviction and people's vote. Quote, twenty two percent 399 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 2: of respondents said the conviction is important to how they 400 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 2: will vote and that it will make them less likely 401 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 2: to support Trump. Only six percent of respondents took the 402 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 2: other out of the question, saying they are more likely 403 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 2: to support a nearly identical net negative effect showed up 404 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 2: among independents, with twenty one percent saying they are less 405 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 2: likely to support and five percent saying they are more 406 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 2: likely unquote now. Of those who say the conviction is 407 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 2: important to how they will vote, seven percent of Republicans 408 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 2: say they are less likely to support Trump. So that's 409 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 2: an interesting number, and only thirteen percent say they are 410 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 2: more likely, and like, come on, those people were always 411 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 2: going to vote for Trump anyway. Forty percent of Democrats, 412 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 2: of course, say that they are less likely now. Twenty 413 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 2: eight percent of Republicans say that the conviction makes them 414 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,400 Speaker 2: more likely to support Trump, but it won't affect their vote, 415 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 2: and among those who said the conviction isn't important to 416 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 2: how they will vote, forty percent said that it has 417 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 2: basically no impact on their support of Trump. Most those 418 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,439 Speaker 2: people are independents now. Political also asked respondents if they 419 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 2: thought the prosecution was brought to help Joe Biden, and 420 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 2: most around fifty one percent disagree with the claim, but 421 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 2: forty three percent agreed and said that the case had 422 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 2: probably been been brought to help Biden, and these results 423 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 2: are roughly similar among Independence, so still most people don't 424 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 2: think so, and there's people who have, you know, suspicions, 425 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 2: not not super surprising. 426 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 3: Now. 427 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 2: Political notes that these figures might be movable, though these 428 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 2: are not necessarily locked down opinions as quote roughly a 429 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 2: third of all responders and Independence said that they still 430 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 2: do not understand the details of the case well unquote, 431 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 2: so glorious that those are not really set in stone. 432 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 2: And Political also notes that there's a number of upcoming 433 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 2: events and variables that could change of the public's opinion 434 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,880 Speaker 2: before November, you know, including all of the ongoing efforts 435 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 2: by political operatives to influence people, the public perception of 436 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 2: both the conviction and just you know, the election in general. 437 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 1: The debates obviously too. 438 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 2: The debates as well as Trump's sentencing in Manhattan on 439 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 2: July eleventh, which could possibly you know, entail a period 440 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 2: of incarceration. Probably not, but if it did, would that 441 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 2: would certainly impact impact these numbers. And also Manhattan Dish 442 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 2: Attorney Alvin Bragg's testimony before Congress on July twelfth, This 443 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 2: could impact the numbers you know regarding you know, how 444 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 2: many people think this case is legit versus how much 445 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 2: people think is just purely like a political move. But 446 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 2: still about half of adults do approve of Trump's conviction. 447 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 2: The AP did a poll with the NORC a week 448 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: after Trump's conviction, but before Hunter Biden was convicted on 449 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,479 Speaker 2: that federal gun case, and US also seems more likely 450 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 2: to support Trump's conviction than they are to disapprove, with 451 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 2: at least forty eight percent saying they approve and just 452 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: twenty nine somewhat or strongly disapproving and twenty one you know, 453 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 2: not approving or disapproving, to quote from the AP, Republicans 454 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 2: are less united on the verdict than Democrats, Roughly six 455 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 2: and ten Republicans disapprove, while fifteen percent approve. The other 456 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 2: two and ten and neither approve nor disapprove. Overall, opinions 457 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 2: on Trump have barely budged. About six and ten US 458 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 2: adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, just in line 459 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,920 Speaker 2: from our fine In a poll conducted last February, four 460 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 2: in ten have a favorable view of Trump when also 461 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 2: largely unchanged since February. The numbers are equally poor for Biden. 462 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 2: For in ten US adults have a favorable view of 463 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 2: the Democratic president, while six and ten have a negative 464 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 2: one unquote. 465 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is very much unique in races that I 466 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 1: can recall a race to the bottom, like who can 467 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 1: alienate who will alienate less of the base? 468 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, no, we polls consistently are showing that there 469 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 2: will be historically that there is historically low voter enthusiasm. 470 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 2: Both candidates have very low favorability ratings, and an NBC 471 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 2: poll found that sixty four percent of voters say that 472 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 2: they are very interested in this year's election, which is 473 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 2: a twenty year low, so, you know, not great numbers. 474 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 2: And a new CBS poll found that among young Americans 475 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 2: who did vote in twenty twenty, only three quarters to 476 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 2: say that they'll definitely do so again. Now this this 477 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 2: poll also does know that Trump's support among young voters 478 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 2: has been almost unchanged since twenty twenty. 479 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's got done about two percent better, which is 480 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: fairly minimal considering how much Biden's lead is among that group. 481 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 2: But overall, young voters do believe generally progressive values pretty consistently, 482 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 2: including support for a ceasefire. 483 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: And that's I mean, part of the reason why we 484 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 1: may not see which you could be catastrophic for Biden 485 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 1: because twenty twenty, a lot of his win came in 486 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 1: the fact that he did deliver so much of that, 487 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: like so many young voters came out, turnout was so high, 488 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,479 Speaker 1: and they overwhelmingly supported Biden. There is also, i mean, 489 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: kind of a reason why that might not wind up mattering, 490 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,400 Speaker 1: which is where Biden I mentioned earlier. Biden does really 491 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 1: well among likely voters, much better than he does among 492 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 1: the general electorate. And this is part of a shift 493 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 1: among white voters with degrees that has been We get 494 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: a lot of talk and this has been significant, especially 495 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,719 Speaker 1: like Latino voters shifting to ourswards. The GOP has been 496 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: a really important story too, but this one does not 497 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: get talked about as much. In the four years since 498 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 1: Biden took office, white men with degrees have shifted twenty 499 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: four points towards Biden, and he has gained nineteen points 500 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: among white women with degrees, which is like a huge 501 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: amount of his support. And also that's one of the 502 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: groups that's likeliest to vote. Like the strength that Biden 503 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 1: has gained among kind of middle of the road leaning 504 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 1: conservative suburban voters is potentially going to be a de 505 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: sider in this election. 506 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, and according to The New York Times and Sienna, 507 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 2: the polls do seem slightly skewed in Trump's favor actually 508 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 2: this year, mostly by disenfranchised voters who may not participate 509 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,879 Speaker 2: in the upcoming election. And analysis they did found that 510 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 2: Biden had led the last three of their polls among 511 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 2: twenty twenty voters, but trailed among registered voters overall, which 512 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 2: is basically exactly what you're. 513 00:26:54,840 --> 00:27:02,479 Speaker 1: Saying, you know, Garrison, speaking of likely voters are I 514 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: don't know, that doesn't really lead in here's the fucking ads. Look, 515 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 1: you don't get you don't get a good one. Every 516 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: time we do this, folks, there's too. 517 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 2: Many more are likely to listen to these ads. They're fine, 518 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:26,919 Speaker 2: So we are back. Is polling actually useful? Is this 519 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 2: actually useful anymore? The answer is kinda. But you know, 520 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 2: people have gotten really really anti polling in recent years. 521 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 2: You know, it's the twenty sixteen elections certainly contributed to that, 522 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,919 Speaker 2: although if you look at the actual twenty sixteen polls, 523 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 2: it's kind of it's kind of interesting. In twenty sixteen, 524 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 2: Clinton generally pulled much higher than Trump for the duration 525 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 2: of the race. Though in late July the two were 526 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 2: neck and neck, with the with the gap closing once 527 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 2: again in late September and the week of the election, 528 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 2: Trump was on average trailing by less than three point 529 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 2: five percent behind, which is often in the margin of 530 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 2: they are for these polls and posters usually consider something 531 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 2: under three percent being a toss up. Now this is 532 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 2: three point five percent, so still is it was trending 533 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 2: towards Clinton, and there is reasons why in terms of 534 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 2: their polling methodology that was flawed. But the polls were 535 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 2: actually a bit closer than I think what public perception 536 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 2: seems to remember of the twenty sixteen polls. 537 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 1: Yes, and this is a part of why the public 538 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: memory of twenty sixteen and to an extent, twenty twenty 539 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: and to an extent every election is so bad. Is 540 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: you can't emphasize this enough. People are dogshit and understanding 541 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: what poles say, right. They are really bad at understanding uncertainty. 542 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 1: One of the things that I hate to keep going 543 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: back to the Nate silver Well, but I think he's 544 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: a fascinating case study. And one of the things he 545 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: pointed out after twenty sixteen the minute you have a 546 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: forecast where there's less certainty. People don't like that. The 547 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: minute you have a forecast that doesn't have a Democrat winning, 548 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: they don't like that very much. And it's to point out, 549 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 1: like his he kind of started to become a heel 550 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: as soon as he started showing that like Trump had 551 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,760 Speaker 1: a real shot at winning, and as his forecast continue 552 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 1: to show kind of weakness among Democrats, it got people 553 00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 1: angrier and angrier. And that's most of what makes people 554 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: determine whether or not something is a credible source on 555 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,680 Speaker 1: the election. And that's kind of why a lot of 556 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 1: this is like a doomed effort, is because people consider, 557 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 1: you know, an expert credible if they are saying something 558 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: they want to hear, because most of what people want 559 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 1: in terms of election polling is to feel reassured that 560 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: things are going to be okay, right, and that's that's 561 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 1: your kind of It's always like a confirmation bias game. 562 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,240 Speaker 1: And it's also one of those things where like the 563 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: instant you do well, if you are legitimately a rigorous, 564 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 1: you know, expert, and you predict things correctly, you're going 565 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 1: to suddenly be this focus of so much media attention 566 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,239 Speaker 1: and have so much money and job offers thrown your 567 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: way that it will inherently drive you mad, which is 568 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: part of why again, I am predicting a twenty nine 569 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 1: percent chance that things are basically the way they were 570 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, so I can get all that sweet, 571 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 1: sweet CNN money, you know, if I wind up being right. 572 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 1: I am curious Garrison kind of in that line, because 573 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 1: as our official poll expert, you kind of came into this, 574 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 1: I don't think with a strong set of biases about 575 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: what would happen when you actually started drilling down into 576 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 1: the numbers. Did that change it all your impression of 577 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:28,719 Speaker 1: what was going on this election? 578 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 2: I think I thought that the numbers for Biden would 579 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 2: be slightly worse. I think that's kind of the general feeling, 580 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 2: and that has been you know, what the numbers have 581 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 2: kind of looked like in my cursory glances the past 582 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 2: few months. But looking more into kind of polling science, 583 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 2: what these pollsters are are saying the gap is usually 584 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 2: within this three percent, that it feels like it's going 585 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 2: to be a very close election. It'll be much closer 586 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 2: than it was in twenty twenty. Poles thought that twenty 587 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 2: twenty would be a much, much more obvious win for Biden. 588 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 2: It was, it was it was a closer election than 589 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 2: what people thought. But this I think will be even 590 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 2: even closer. So gonna it's gonna be a tricky one. 591 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 2: We're going to be kind of on the edge of 592 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 2: our seat come from election night, which is what no 593 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 2: one wants to hear, right, No, especially since you have this, 594 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 2: You have a lot of people who want to hear 595 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 2: Biden is doomed because they have, for generally good reasons, 596 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 2: come to despise Biden over the last totally years, and 597 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 2: they just want to know that like the things they're 598 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 2: angry about matter. 599 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: And the thing that I all I can say to 600 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: those people is like, I don't know that anything matters, 601 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: and I do think there's a really good chance. I 602 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 1: think this is basically a coin flip. 603 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think you know, polling is is going 604 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 2: to look very different this year because Trump is not 605 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 2: the incumbent. I think there's a lot of other factors 606 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 2: that are contributing to the polls, and pollsters have adjusted 607 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 2: a lot since twenty sixteen to make sure that more 608 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 2: Trump support is accounted for both in twenty twenty and 609 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen. The error did not come from overestimating 610 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 2: the support of Clinton and Biden. It came from underestimating 611 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 2: Trump's support. And this has been fixed fixed for via 612 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 2: a number a number of methods. You know, there's certain 613 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 2: theories people have had, like the quote unquote shy Trump 614 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 2: voter theory, which is kind of largely disputed, saying that 615 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 2: you know. 616 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 1: People certainly by this fucking point. 617 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 2: Yes, no, saying that people who like support Trump are 618 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 2: too scared to tell polsters that they support Trump. Quite 619 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 2: quite silly. It's essentially it's essentially blaming, blaming, like pull 620 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 2: errors on people just lying to pollsters because they're too nervous. So, 621 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 2: I don't know. There's a lot of other stuff we have. 622 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:45,959 Speaker 2: We have adjusted for white, non college educated voters, you know, 623 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 2: because people who have a college degree are more likely 624 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 2: to respond to polls. So all this does get adjusted for, 625 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 2: especially since twenty sixteen, because that was the main cause 626 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 2: of the polls kind of being fucked up that year. 627 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 2: So what exactly happened in twenty twenty Then if these 628 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 2: things like the non college vote and the shy Trump 629 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,960 Speaker 2: voter theory were sort of adjusted for, well, a few 630 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 2: things happened. The pandemic one, you know, made certain pulling 631 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 2: figures a little bit unique. The election also featured the 632 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 2: highest number of voter turnout in decades, something that we're 633 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 2: probably not expected to see in twenty twenty four. In 634 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, the national polls were too favorable to Biden 635 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 2: by three point nine points, state polls by four point 636 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 2: three I'm going to read a report from the American 637 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 2: Association for Public Opinion Research analyzing twenty twenty election poll errors. Quote. 638 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 2: If the voter's most supportive of Trump were least likely 639 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 2: to participate in polls, then the polling error may be 640 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 2: explained as follows. Self identified Republicans who choose to respond 641 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 2: to polls are more likely to support Democrats, and those 642 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 2: who choose not to respond to polls are more likely 643 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,920 Speaker 2: to support Republicans. Even if the correct percentage of self 644 00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 2: identified Republicans were pulled, differences in their publicans who did 645 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 2: and did not respond could produce the observed polling error unquote. 646 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 2: If this was indeed the issue, it was probably made 647 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 2: worse by Trump and twenty twenty by being very disparaging 648 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 2: to polls, making his base probably less likely to honestly 649 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 2: engage with polling metrics, and both in twenty sixteen and 650 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 2: twenty twenty there was large, large post mortems among the 651 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 2: polling community trying to figure out how to improve, and 652 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two's polls were more accurate than any election 653 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:36,320 Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety eight, with almost no bias towards either party. 654 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 2: So that is a good side in terms of the 655 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:41,960 Speaker 2: accuracy of polls. 656 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: This not being nonsense. 657 00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, correct, So a poster named Nathaniel Rackitch said, quote, 658 00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 2: pollsterry utility isn't telling us who will win, but rather 659 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 2: in roughly how close a race is and therefore how 660 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 2: confident we should be in the outcome. Historically, candidate's leading 661 00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 2: polls by at least twenty points have won in ninety 662 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 2: nine percent of the time, but candidate's leading polls made 663 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,720 Speaker 2: less than three points have won just fifty five percent 664 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 2: of the time unquote, And that kind of lines up 665 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,640 Speaker 2: with our current situation, right. Biden was even though the 666 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 2: polls were slightly skewed towards Biden in twenty twenty, he 667 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 2: was so far ahead that most of the polls in 668 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,439 Speaker 2: terms of saying who would win, we're still correct because 669 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 2: Biden was just so far ahead this time. That will 670 00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,279 Speaker 2: not be the case. That's not that's not what the 671 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 2: poles are going to say. The polls are going to 672 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 2: show this being a much closer race, and that I 673 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,920 Speaker 2: think that is what it's going to be come come November. 674 00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 2: So yeah, that's kind of that's kind of the low 675 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 2: down of the current the current polling situation. I'll be 676 00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,360 Speaker 2: curious to see, you know, what the numbers are post 677 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,360 Speaker 2: debate and especially after the sentencing in July. 678 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see. And I should note that Nate Silver 679 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:47,920 Speaker 1: just released his official forecast today and it's it's almost 680 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,000 Speaker 1: the opposite of that weird German man who gave Biden 681 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: a seventy five percent chance of winning. Nate gives Trump 682 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 1: a sixty five percent chance of winning. So we are 683 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 1: going to see which of the election pundits who make 684 00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,920 Speaker 1: their entire living off of gambling on elections winds up 685 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,360 Speaker 1: getting to be feted on all of the talk shows 686 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,799 Speaker 1: in like January of twenty twenty five. 687 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:09,279 Speaker 3: That'll be. 688 00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 2: That's so you'll toss up. 689 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,840 Speaker 1: Honestly, that's thereal'll toss up. It's Helmet versus Nate, Baby, 690 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,560 Speaker 1: who's gonna win? I kind of think they both might 691 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:17,240 Speaker 1: be common. 692 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 3: It could Happen here as a production of cool Zone Media. 693 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,360 Speaker 3: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 694 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 3: coolzonemedia dot com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 695 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 3: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can 696 00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,440 Speaker 3: find sources for It could Happen here, updated monthly at 697 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,720 Speaker 3: coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.