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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Cloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve unders to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine to the country, suis Et Damn General one

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Speaker 1: ninety and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aven

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning. I'm

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Speaker 1: kmerin Moscow along with Tom Keene and Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: the opening Dow brought to you by se i Imagine,

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Speaker 1: a global operating platform designed to deliver a differentiated and

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Speaker 1: you succeed at se i C dot com slash Imagine.

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Speaker 1: Stocks lower at the open, the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred down two tenths per cent or four points to

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Speaker 1: ninety four the down Johnes Industrial Average down to tenths

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Speaker 1: per cent or twenty nine points to seventeen thousand, seven

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty nine. The NASDACS down to tenths per center

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Speaker 1: eleven points to forty forty Tenure Treasury is up four

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds. The one one per cent heeled on the

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Speaker 1: two year point eight nine percent nine max screwed oil

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Speaker 1: down one cent or eighty seven cents to forty eight thirteen.

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Speaker 1: A barrel co max gold is little change down sixty

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Speaker 1: cents to twelve announced and the euro dollar eleven eighty six,

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Speaker 1: the yen one away point seven four. The Brexit on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. That's dramatic music. It's a very Game of Thrones. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I wonder if they made the music in Ireland,

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Speaker 1: where they film a lot of games of the game.

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Speaker 1: It's like season three Game of Thrones. Who's our king here? Exactly? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: You know, pH Lanisters do bad things in season three. Wait,

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Speaker 1: they do things in everything in every season and somebody

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Speaker 1: always dies in the show. Well, we hope will be

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Speaker 1: with us throughout the rest of this programs with the

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Speaker 1: Peters in the institute, and he enjoined us now to

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Speaker 1: talk about the latest on and I just did he

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Speaker 1: can I interrupt? Actually one of the one of the

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Speaker 1: white lands north of the wall looks a lot like

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Speaker 1: Adam posing there all right, Uh, Jacob is It's it's

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Speaker 1: been an interesting um turned lately to see the the

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Speaker 1: Brexit crowd gaining ground. Uh, it's kind of hard to

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Speaker 1: figure out for the posters apparently what it is that

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Speaker 1: the vote is actually turning on what what people are

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Speaker 1: using as their criteria for making a decision. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I think what this vote is about is an

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Speaker 1: ever bigger question. I mean, it seems to be more

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Speaker 1: sort of a civil war inside the Conservative Party and

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Speaker 1: the Labor Party by the way, um And and the

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Speaker 1: sort of issue of EU membership is really sort of

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Speaker 1: only tandanel. But I think what happened this week was

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Speaker 1: that the lead campaign uh finally sort of doubled down

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Speaker 1: on what was always their strongest argument, which was immigration.

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Speaker 1: Because immigration is an issue that touches the sort of

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Speaker 1: identity politics and has a lot of people in the

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Speaker 1: UK clearly worried. Um Because immigration into the UK has

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Speaker 1: been very high in the twenty one century um and

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Speaker 1: some people are concerned about that. And David Cameron is

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Speaker 1: also quite weak on the subject because as part of

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Speaker 1: his election manifesto in two thousand and fifteen he promised

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Speaker 1: that he would keep immigration on net immigration into the

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Speaker 1: UK below a hundred thousand a year. Yet the latest

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Speaker 1: numbers for last year just came out and showed over

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Speaker 1: three hundred UM and the lead campaign is saying, well,

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Speaker 1: this is because we can't control our own borders. It's

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Speaker 1: because of open the the freedom of movement of workers

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Speaker 1: inside the EU. We've got to take control of our borders,

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Speaker 1: and that's an argument that has some appeal. Quite clearly.

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Speaker 1: Is there something something out there that you see that

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Speaker 1: when the debate could turn on or is it going

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Speaker 1: to be up till June this kind of grinding change? No?

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Speaker 1: I mean I think uh fundamentally, the lead campaign, in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, has lost the economic argument. They have not

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Speaker 1: been able to articulate a credible uh you know, what

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Speaker 1: is the UK going to look like economically the day

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Speaker 1: after Brexit? Um? And that is why they have now,

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Speaker 1: as I said earlier, swung to really pushing the immigration

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Speaker 1: argument and doing so while trying not to appear to nativists. Um.

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Speaker 1: Whether they will succeed, I am strongly doubtful, because the

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Speaker 1: polls will also show that among the remaining swing voters,

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Speaker 1: those that haven't made up their mind yet, the economy

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Speaker 1: is the most important issue. Uh so So I therefore

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Speaker 1: believe that at the end of the day that either

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Speaker 1: a narrow or a slightly more comfortable victory for the

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Speaker 1: remain camp will still be there. But as I said, meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: this is turning into an all out civil war, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the Conservative Party where clearly already there are already

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Speaker 1: people in the Conservative among the Conservative MPs who are

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Speaker 1: saying that David Camera needs to resign even if he

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Speaker 1: wins the referendum. Um so his future might potentially even

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Speaker 1: if he's successful. What's great about Jacob Kirk's researchers, You

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Speaker 1: really hard nosed about it. My basic take is it's

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Speaker 1: an elite debate in most of us are not following

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Speaker 1: the people, and as you mentioned very nicely, this is

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Speaker 1: about the people. The Ft Today has a fabulous chart

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Speaker 1: showing the mass polarity of this debate. You just said

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Speaker 1: the distinction. You're saying, this is not about immigration and

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Speaker 1: migrant refugee dynamics in Europe and it's about the actual

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Speaker 1: UK economy. Well, I'm saying I'm saying that the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of many of the in my opinion, probably the

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Speaker 1: majority of the people who votes no, they're going to

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Speaker 1: vote no because they're concerned about immigration. But what I

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Speaker 1: am saying is that I believe that the economy is

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Speaker 1: what's going to swing it in remains favor because the

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Speaker 1: majority of the remaining undecided are going to be basically

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Speaker 1: voting uh, you know, their loss of earth. They are

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Speaker 1: status quo oriented. Uh. Therefore they will vote for the

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Speaker 1: safe bit, which is to stay in. And like that's

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Speaker 1: the key phrase. Law, I'm gonna have to steal that

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Speaker 1: from Dr kirkerguard loss of verse. There's a lot. Seriously,

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Speaker 1: it has a lot to do with it. It seems

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Speaker 1: to be there seems to be a demographic aspect to this,

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Speaker 1: with older voters maybe more sympathetic to the idea of

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Speaker 1: being outside the EU because they can remember when they

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Speaker 1: were when there was no EU. Uh. And and of

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Speaker 1: course people at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale

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Speaker 1: being more interested in in leaving. How much of a

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Speaker 1: role is that really going to play in the end? No,

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Speaker 1: I mean I think that that that is that is

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Speaker 1: a key issue here, because there's no doubt that, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, all the voters tend to be more inclined

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Speaker 1: to leave, partly because as you said, they can maybe

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Speaker 1: remember that there was a world when the UK was

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Speaker 1: not part of the EU. Um and and they may

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Speaker 1: be more nostalgic about out uh you know, Britain as

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Speaker 1: a big colonial empire. Uh, etcetera. And therefore they may

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Speaker 1: have the opinion that actually the UK can does not

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Speaker 1: have to share sovereignts, he does not have to do

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Speaker 1: things in common with the rest of Europe, but can

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Speaker 1: do it, can do it alone. Um. Whereas I think

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Speaker 1: younger people, many of whom has has always grown up

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Speaker 1: in a Europe virtually without borders. They're used to uh

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Speaker 1: nipping over to France, They're used to travel freely around

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Speaker 1: and for them, the the past or the past that

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Speaker 1: their parents generation are sort of ranking back to doesn't exist.

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Speaker 1: Jacob Kirkerbard, thank you so much. Peterson Institute uh with

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Speaker 1: us as well. Dr Kirkgard, thank you so much. Mike.

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Speaker 1: We've got some real movement in FX yen stronger blowings

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Speaker 1: for recent new strengths. One of a sixty dollar lat

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Speaker 1: euro crushed off the ending of the draggy press conference.

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Speaker 1: One O eleven sixty seven euro yen has moved one

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Speaker 1: point to nine big figures stronger, stronger yen. This morning,

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Speaker 1: I'm now to check in with Michael br got the

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Speaker 1: latest world in national headlines n time. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton is preparing to attack Donald Trump on his

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Speaker 1: foreign policy. Clinton will use a speech in San Diego

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Speaker 1: today to cast the Republican has unfit for office and dangerous.

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Speaker 1: The former Secretary of State will seek to contrast foreign

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Speaker 1: policy experience with Trump's. The PGA tourist says it has

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Speaker 1: nothing to do with politics, but they're moving next year's

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Speaker 1: World Golf Championship from Donald Trump's course in Miami to

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Speaker 1: Mexico City. Trump responded to the news at a rally

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Speaker 1: in Sacramento last night. They moved the World Golf Championships

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Speaker 1: from Miami to Mexico City. Can you believe it? Seven

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Speaker 1: all makers adding about four point four million vehicles in

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Speaker 1: the US to the massive Takada airbag inflata recall. Documents

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Speaker 1: to tailing recalls by General Motors, Volkswagen for Dame, Ler,

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Speaker 1: Van's BMW, Jaguar, Landrover, and Mercedes bands were posted today

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Speaker 1: to drivers and passengers when exposed to community and repeated

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Speaker 1: hot and cold cycles. If you ask Space X CEO

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk, people will be on Mars in just nine

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Speaker 1: years from now. Musk said that we should be able

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Speaker 1: to launch people in four with the arrival in globals

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day. Michael bar my stop. They

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Speaker 1: could listen to surveillance podcast who Layout You can get

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Speaker 1: it anywhere, store them on Mars, even even on the

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Speaker 1: Red Planet. Let see it now. Yeah, surging one sixty

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