WEBVTT - Nuclear Stages a Comeback 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.000 Hi, this is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switch 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.880 It on the b n F podcast. So nuclear power 0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:09.719 is not a new technology. Electricity generated from a nuclear 0:00:09.760 --> 0:00:13.440 reactor first took place in nineteen fifty one. The world 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.599 went from just one gigawatt of installed capacity in nineteen 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:19.520 sixty to over three hundred by the late nineteen eighties. 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:22.239 And just like nuclear got a bit more attention following 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:25.760 the nineteen seventy three oil crisis, there are some parallels 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:28.440 with how countries are talking about nuclear today in light 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:31.520 of the volatility in the oil and natural gas markets. 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:35.159 In the nineteen seventies, countries like France and Japan started 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:38.440 to invest in nuclear, and today countries like Germany that 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.720 have been much more focused on decommissioning nuclear as of late, 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:45.000 are again discussing the potential that it has to produce 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.520 their reliance on oil and natural gas. So what many 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.800 of us are wondering is will baseload power make a comeback, 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.560 will it displace some of this flexible capacity that we've 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.080 been using as of late, and will there be a 0:00:57.200 --> 0:01:00.960 nuclear renaissance and if there is, how might it look different? 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:04.120 This time? On today's show, we talk about a wide 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:07.280 range of things happening in the nuclear industry, from potential 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:12.000 technology breakthroughs with small nuclear power to geopolitical issues impacting 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:14.759 the industry, and I wanted to know will there be 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:18.520 enough uranium for an industry expansion should this happen? Well, 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.240 we get to that, will the nuclear industry be able 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:24.119 to ramp up quickly enough to alleviate the pressure caused 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:28.479 by commodities volatility? Well that too, so joining us today 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:31.360 is Chris Gadomski, who is the lead nuclear analyst at 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:33.800 b an e F. Those who want to read more 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.440 of our analysis on nuclear and access our data, you 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.640 can find it at the b NF research report Nuclear 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:45.319 one h Market Outlook Unprecedented Opportunity, which is available for 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.040 subscribers to download at b NF go on the Bloomberg 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:50.800 terminal at b NF dot com, or on our mobile app. 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:53.880 As a reminder, b ANF does not provide investment or 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:57.040 strategy advice, and we have a full disclaimer that's played 0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:59.640 at the very end of the show. Additionally, if you 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:03.000 want to know when new switched on podcasts about the 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:07.320 future of energy, transport and sustainability come out, well, make 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.760 sure to subscribe to this show on whatever podcast player 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.320 you're listening to us on now and now let's speak 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:21.200 with Chris about nuclear power. Chris, thank you for joining 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.680 the show today. My pleasure. So we're here to talk 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:27.200 about nuclear You're a resident nuclear expert at B andF, 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:31.120 and things have been shifting more lately, I think in 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.600 terms of sentiment and discussion, it's coming up all over 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:37.920 again many times over. This is an established technology in 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.720 the net zero carbon space that is discussed in spurts 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:44.560 and starts. So why, in your opinion do you think 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:48.240 that nuclear is very much back at the center of 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:51.440 the conversation. Well, there's a variety of reasons. We'll start 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:55.000 with a whole net zero initiative that's going on around 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.679 the world where people are looking for some options to 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:02.800 complement the eppointment of renewable energy. And so my take 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:06.600 is that net zero without fission or fusion is just 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.959 the conversation that involves a lot of hot air. So 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:13.960 it is a very complementary technology to renewables, and I 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:17.959 think that very important pathway to achieving that zero is 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.680 to have nucular power in a variety of different technologies 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:25.040 replacing the fossil fuels that are now a big part 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.919 of the generation portfolio. Secondly, we were having an energy 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:33.639 crisis in Europe and natural gas supplies are questionable for 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:37.160 the foreseeable months, and people are looking at what types 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.280 of options that they can can look at. Germany has 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:44.560 been contemplating more coal, if not relying more on coal, 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:48.120 building more natural gas, and people are sort of asking, 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.800 why are you going ahead and sort of tapping some 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:55.160 very very high carbon sources of electricity when you still 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:59.440 have several ginger lots of capacity online in Germany that 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:03.880 can go head and be deployed beyond the scheduled closure 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:06.760 in the second half of this year. And Thirdly, there's 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:11.320 been a increase in the price of natural gas and 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.680 so now nuclear power is viewed to be competitive. And 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:18.000 the perfect example of that is the recent legislation that's 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:21.280 been passed in the United States in the Senate. Remains 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.120 to be passed in the House, but we expect it 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.600 to be passed in the House. Is that they're offering 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.760 tax credits for nuclear provided that there is going to 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:31.760 be a need for those nuclear power plants to rely 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:35.680 in those tax credits to go ahead and realize or 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:38.279 become profitable. But I don't think that's going to be 0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:40.880 the case because the price of natural gas has gone 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:44.120 so I in the in many markets in the US 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.640 that those nuclear power plants will not need to have 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:52.640 those production credit text credits to go ahead hand become profitable. Unlestie, 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:56.599 there is a tremendous amount of innovation that has gone 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.400 on in the energy sector. We've seen tremendous innovation and 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.160 we rule bowls. A less decade or so, we've seen 0:05:02.200 --> 0:05:05.400 the whole fracking revolution, and there's been very very little 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:09.640 nuclear innovation. Now, however, we're starting to see nuclear innovation 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:14.560 in the form of smaller reactors and advanced reactors that 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:19.520 are changing in the discussion regarding the economics and safety 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:23.760 and acceptability, social acceptability of this technology, as well as 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:28.360 some new nuclear potentially coming online, not in the near 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:30.520 term but at least being discussed. Is something we can 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:33.919 build in order to reduce dependency on natural gas. And 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:36.920 you had some examples in the research note that actually 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:39.720 you know, looked at it before getting on today that 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:43.400 really highlighted that when nuclear power stations are shut down, 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.440 oftentimes it's natural gas that actually fills that capacity in 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:51.480 the background. At least immediately, maybe not necessarily in the 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:55.640 long term. So do you see new things being built 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.400 given that you know some of the forecasts that we're 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:00.799 looking at or showing that gas per this could remain 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:04.240 high for a few years into the future. And is 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:08.080 that enough time for new nuclear in Europe specifically or 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:10.560 this is a real pain point. Do you think that 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:14.240 there's enough I guess political will and even just time 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:16.880 given how big these projects are for things to come 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:20.159 online order to meet that demand. Right, So, there's two 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.680 categories of nuclear technology that we can broadly define, one 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:28.640 being large giga watts size reactors. A perfect example would 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.880 be the Hinkley Point see reactors. There one point six 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:35.719 giga wats a piece that are being built presently and 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.280 a decision has just been made by the UK to 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:41.520 go ahead and move forward with the size well see 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:46.200 reactor and we'll see if that actually transpires and goes forward. 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:50.120 And there are discussions elsewhere in Europe, for example Poland. 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.560 Poland has a huge coal problem. They need to go 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:55.600 ahead and decarbonize if they are going to remain a 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.200 member of the EU and good standing, and they're looking 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.960 at six to nine giggle watts of large reactors, and 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:04.560 they're also looking at some advanced smaller reactors that are 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:07.800 available on the order of three hundred megawatts or less, 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:10.800 and so they're examining two sides of the equation. If 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:14.200 they go ahead and pursue the large reactors, we should 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:18.000 see them perhaps come online sometime I would imagine in 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:21.360 the middle of the thirties. If they decide to go 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.080 ahead with the smaller reactors, I think that there is 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:27.560 enough momentum building for certain technologies that are available in 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.840 the three hundred megawatt range that could allow them to 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:35.800 deliver solutions closer to But one has to remember that 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.000 nuclear power is unique, and that it's burdened with incredible 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:44.120 regulatory oversight and safety concerns and social worries and political opposition. 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:48.840 So the pathway to commercial operation of a nuclear power plan, 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:52.480 especially in a new market, is very, very poonged, and 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.600 it's running a gauntlet to go ahead and get those 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:59.280 reactors up and running. So there is promise long term, 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:01.440 but I would iagine that I would be a little 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:04.880 bit optimistic if I said that these technologies are going 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:08.440 to be ready as to address the mediate concerns of 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.239 the energy issues in the next two or three years, 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:15.040 and recently nuclear was included in the EU Green taxonomy. 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:18.520 Do you think that that is a sign that people 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:20.360 are warming to it or do you think it will 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:23.160 give any bolster to the industry or is it maybe 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.960 that's relevant. Of course, we're very pleased to see nuclear 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.280 recognized for its carbon free attributes, and I think it's 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.960 a very positive development. It would certainly be much worse 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:37.600 if it did not receive that categorization. But when you 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:40.680 think about building a nuclear power plant, there's there's two 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:44.840 separate components. There is a policy initiative which allout calls 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:48.400 pushing of the technology through policy so that it sets 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.480 the stage for for acceptance. Then the other side of 0:08:51.480 --> 0:08:54.920 the equation is of the market pull the market drive 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:58.720 to go ahead and actually build nuclear power plants. And 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.800 you need both. You need a market setting the stage 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:05.760 through policy, and you also need recognition by utilities large 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:09.640 industrials to say we need this type of carbon free 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:14.760 technology to execute appropriately. Are net zero strategies or carbon 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:18.120 free strategies, And so it's a push and a pull. 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:20.920 You can push a string, but it's much more effective 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:23.880 if you pull a string. And therefore we're looking at 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.760 market demand, market pull from the nations and utilities in 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:30.880 Europe and around the world. I recognize how important it 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:35.600 is to sort of balance their deployment of renewables complementary 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:41.079 with advanced nuclear technologies. Now you mentioned new projects and 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.439 namely and let's let's start with Poland, which does have 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:46.920 a lot of coal fired power stations and this could 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:51.120 really help them decarbonize their grit But of those projects, 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.319 there are a number of contracts in place with the 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:57.400 company Rosatum, which is Russian based, and with current sanctions 0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:00.680 are there many other companies and I guess which companies 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.160 are those that are kind of pullis to potentially take 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:05.720 over those sorts of contracts if they can't go ahead 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:11.480 with their existing manufacturer. So ross Atom is the leading 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:15.000 export of nuclear technology in the world. They have somewhat 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:19.960 like thirty five projects reactors underdevelopment in their pipeline right now, 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:23.400 in excess of approximately a hundred thirty billion dollars worth 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:26.800 of orders. We've seen the first defection as a result 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:30.120 of the war in the Ukraine and that has been Finland. 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:33.080 Finland was on schedule to go ahead and start construction 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:37.520 of a Russian reactor in Hai Kibi and it has 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:41.239 decided not to go forward. We've also seen some turmoil 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:44.240 and one of Russia's big markets, which is Turkey. Turkey's 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:48.240 building four reactors over there, and there's been some maneuvering 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:52.680 going for where there where. Russia has changed one of 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:56.360 its contractors from a Turkish subsidiary to a holy On 0:10:56.520 --> 0:11:00.600 Russian subsidiary, and that raises a lot of questions regarding 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:04.400 the progress of that construction built. They are supposed to 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.640 have the first reactor operating next year, in three in 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:12.560 recognition of the hundredth anniversary of the turkiship I'll look there. 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.800 And finally, there is some activity going on in Egypt. 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.520 Egypt just announced in the last two or three weeks 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:21.520 that they have started construction on their reactor. That reactor 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:25.280 has been under construction, under development, or rather underdevelopment for 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:29.880 several years, so now finally, allegedly first nuclear concrete has 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:33.960 been poured, which signifies the start of the technology. But 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:36.160 the question then remains who could fill some of the 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:38.880 gaps if there are further questions about some of the 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:41.880 other markets. Among the thirty five reactors that may or 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:45.720 may not go forward, Russia has a good hold on 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:49.559 the nuclear market, international market. In India, they have built 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:52.840 two reactors and they're building two more and planning two 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.280 more after that, and so the a p R are 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.959 also being considered by the Indian government to go ahead 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:01.760 and build those. But one has to ask the question 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.880 is that the EPR reactors, along with the Westinghouse AP 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.120 one thousand reactors, are the most expensive reactors in the world, 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.960 and why would a country like Poland or a country 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:15.400 like India decide to go ahead and build these most 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:19.319 expensive nuclear technologies when there are other options that are 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:23.400 perhaps less expensive, less risky that they may want to consider. 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.880 The Koreans offer a success story and that they built 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:31.720 four nuclear power plants in the United Arab Emirates very successfully. 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:36.400 They're operating several of them, and their success story and 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:41.000 perhaps they have demonstrated the ability of Korean companies who 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:45.760 operate in a hostile environmentally hostile environments, very hot that desert, 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.840 very very strenuous working conditions, but to deliver and build 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.920 on time and more or less on budget. That has 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.400 not been the case with some of the Western vendors 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:57.920 in France, Finland and the United States and now apparently 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.720 also in the UK. Where that project to Hinkley See 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:04.080 is running to some cost overruns. Part of it is 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:07.040 to blame for COVID, but it's also that we've lost 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.439 the large components of the workforce, many of whom have retired, 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.560 and so we don't have the workforce that can go 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.520 ahead and build out some of these technologies now for 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:23.560 a very short break stay with us. So you mentioned 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:26.520 different countries, and I guess they would be then state 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:28.880 owned companies that are involved in this, or they largely 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.840 private companies that are filling I guess the other seventy 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:36.320 percent of new build. Well, you have China, India, and 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:40.320 Korea leading the charge to new nuclear construction the world 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:43.240 right now, with perhaps just close to or more than 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:46.959 of the new reactors being built in the world. So 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:51.360 there's a large participation of the state ownership in all 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:54.960 those markets over there, and so I think it's probably 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.920 a very very necessary component for building these large react 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.280 there's around the world. That's not the case necessarily with 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:07.080 the small reactors that are being developed and being commercialized 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:11.480 by General Electric, Tachi, by Rose Royce, by Whole Tech, 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.600 by New Scale, by terror Power, which is owned by 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.360 Bill Gates. So there's a lot of other private sector 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:24.800 ventures that are offering smaller technology, less expensive technology in 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:27.880 that the cost couple of billion as opposed to tens 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:32.400 of billions, and perhaps provides an easier pathway to commercialization 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.560 than some of the large reactors. Well, so let's talk 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.880 about that. So you mentioned that small is potentially less expensive. 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.760 I mean, obviously the project for a small project in 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.280 theory would be less expensive than for a big project, 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.360 but the price per gig wad hour is it also lower? 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:52.680 And is it competitive with other technologies like coal or 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.280 dare I say, wind and solar? You know, what are 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.160 some of the economic benefits and how much cheaper is 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:02.240 small nuclear compared to some of these larger infrastructure projects. 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.320 We have tried to do some analysis on this, and 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.520 we always run onto the same problem is that we 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:12.440 don't have a hard case of a small module reactor 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:14.800 or an advanced you can react to having the built 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:18.680 and having very very good costs data on the construction 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.280 of those things. So a lot of what the industry 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:25.800 relies on is estimates from the manufacturers and vendors saying 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:28.120 this is what the technology is going to cost. So 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:30.080 we are a little bit wary of using them and 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.880 projecting how expensive they're going to be. But the general 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:38.160 electric Tachi reactors are going to be competitive, we believe 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.480 with the existing technologies, and it remains to be seen 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:46.120 how effective they'll will be in actually building and constructing 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:50.800 and delivering these technologies, which are very promising. Development for 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.520 that technology is that you have several utilities in Canada 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:59.000 opting for that technology, and you have Poland interested in 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.440 that technology, and other countries in Eastern Europe interested in 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.360 that technology. And that suggests that you're building up a 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:09.120 supply chain and the demand for that technology where that 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.040 you will be able to reach enter a kind costs 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.760 as opposed to first of a kind cost sooner than later. 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:17.360 And so that can's promised that maybe not the first 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.720 one will be competitive, but certainly once they're after should 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.840 be certainly competitor, but closely competitive to some of the 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:28.760 existing technologies. Otherwise it's not a market for them to pursue. 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.240 Do we have an idea for how long that they 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.560 will take to come online. So there's a lot of 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:39.000 talk about first reactors coming in a line on before 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.480 the turn of the decade. Those are very very optimistic 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.120 in my personal opinion, but that's the goals have been 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:48.440 set by the US government and the Canadian government to 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:51.840 go ahead and reach that eight time frame to go 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:56.000 ahead and deliver the first commercial reactors. I think that's optimistic, 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.360 but I think shortly thereafter we should be able to 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:02.120 have those reactors. Now. Resumably, all the safety concerns and 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.200 the policy you know, hoops that you mentioned that one 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:07.280 must jump through in order to make sure to get 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:10.760 these on the grid probably are not going to be 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.879 reduced for the small to large. Is that a fair assumption, 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:18.760 because you're still going to have these extended timelines for 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.880 the policy arm of things to move through in order 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:26.040 to be comfortable with all the safety checks on a project, 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:29.240 regardless of size. You know, we were operating in a 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:34.040 post Fukushima environment for the last ten eleven years, and 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:39.240 the regulatory bodies, the industry society has been very, very 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:44.560 wary of new nuclear construction, existing operation of new nuclear construction, 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:49.159 and we've seen several reactors closed, not necessarily for economic reasons, 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:53.720 but also for political reasons and also perhaps for social 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:59.640 concerns and economics as well. So the nuclear industry needs 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:01.919 to be on to the challenge that they need to 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:06.560 go build advanced reactors that society is comfortable with with 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.760 their safety and economic performance, and that they are an 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:13.880 appropriate complement to replace the natural gas and fosil other 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:18.040 fossil fuel technologies that society wants to depart in the 0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:22.560 context of a net zero aspirations and goals. So tell 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.680 me a bit. You mentioned reactors in North America, they're 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:30.479 back being discussed and potentially brought online before and then 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.000 recently there's been some big movement in the US, in 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:37.760 particular the Inflation Reduction Act. Can you just quickly outline 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:41.080 where nuclear falls in there, and you know what that 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:44.879 might mean for this industry. The Inflation Reduction Act offers 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:48.160 a production tax credit for the nuclear power plants that 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:52.000 kicks in if the market rates for electricity are very 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.199 very low. We are seeing as a result of very 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.639 high natural gas prices that the market rates should be 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.840 significantly higher than when the ark a text of that bill, 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.200 you know, figured out that this is the level where 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.240 support will kick in. So I think that those a 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:08.919 lot of the nuclear reactors will now operate in the 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:13.240 black because of the higher naturally as prices which they're competing. 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.600 And so there's some hypothesis that there's going to be 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.320 very very little production tax credit available to the nuclear 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:24.600 power industry because they're now operating against competition which has 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:28.040 much higher rates than they have historically in the past. 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.679 In the longer term, and and you know, you're welcome 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.200 to pick whatever year you think he's appropriate, but in 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:37.520 the medium to longer term, you know what percentage of 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:42.600 overall energy do you think nuclear really will end up occupying, 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.960 because we still do when thinking about decarbonizing the grid, 0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:50.639 thinking about even at low prices for solar and wind capacity, 0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:55.360 you still have to create backup options, be that gas, 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:59.560 be that battery storage, and then maybe nuclear, maybe be 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:03.240 slow energy in there could provide some buffer for other 0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:06.920 clean technologies. Do you see kind of higher or low 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:10.520 in terms of where you think nuclear might go? I 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:14.080 think I get into the International Atomic Energy Agency provides 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.200 low points high points, and there's a huge spread over 0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:19.560 there between the low point and high point of the 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.080 future of nuclear, which I don't think is is very 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:26.159 very helpful for utility planners to go ahead and understand 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:30.440 how nuclear may fit into their particular generation portfolio. There 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:33.439 is a question I asked one time the chairman of 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.040 the board of a major US utility which was a 0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:38.880 big coal burner, and I asked them what premium does. 0:20:39.160 --> 0:20:43.800 Is the utility willing to pay to diversify their generation portfolio. 0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:47.280 At the time, natural gas build out was all the rage, 0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:50.600 and you continue to build out natural gas, but then 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:52.520 at one point you need to sort of say we're 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:56.040 overweighted with natural gas and we need to consider another 0:20:56.080 --> 0:20:59.040 type of technology just to bounce it. And in fact, 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.600 if you continue to hold out all the natural gas 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:04.199 because it was the cheapest option ten years ago or 0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.760 eight years ago, now you're in a troublesome situation because 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:11.720 the price of natural gas has has dramatically increased. So 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:15.560 there is going to be a place for lots of renewables, 0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:20.200 some fossil fuel, and some nuclear technology, whether it's fishing 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:23.919 or fusion, to go ahead and bounce out of utilities portfolio. 0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:26.800 And so I think that there is a place for 0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:30.639 nutritive play distinct role as a complement to renewables and 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:35.520 efforts for utilities states countries to decarbonize their electric power sector. 0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:39.080 Just recently, we've had a very very promising development and 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.640 that one of the u S advanced reactor companies has 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:45.560 signed an agreement with Dow Chemical to go ahead and 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:49.959 provide their technology to decarbonize some of the processes that 0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:53.639 that Dow Chemical has, for which Dow Chemical has a 0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:57.200 very high carbon footprint. So now we're besides the utilities, 0:21:57.240 --> 0:22:00.840 were also seeing industrial companies saying, hey, listen, we need 0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.399 to decarbonize it, and we would like to serve embrace 0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:07.040 nuclear technology, advanced nucle technology, and we see this as 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:10.760 a pathway to help us reduce our carbon footmen going forward. 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:13.280 So it's not only utilities where there's a market, but 0:22:13.400 --> 0:22:17.879 these smaller, safer nuclear power plants offer another opportunity for 0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:21.280 industrial scale decarbonization as well, which is a very very 0:22:21.280 --> 0:22:24.720 positive and interesting development that's just happened in the last 0:22:24.760 --> 0:22:28.440 few days. Okay, so you're saying, whether it be nuclear 0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:32.720 fission infusion, what do you mean by that? All the 0:22:32.800 --> 0:22:35.760 nuclear power plants that operate today are fission reactors where 0:22:35.760 --> 0:22:39.880 they're splitting heavy metals. Okay, And there is in recent 0:22:40.040 --> 0:22:45.760 years increased interest in developing fusion technology, which is joining 0:22:45.920 --> 0:22:50.479 fusing together very light elements and reneleases four times as 0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:53.199 much energy as the fission process, and it has a 0:22:53.200 --> 0:22:56.159 lot of other advantages. You don't have the legacy spect 0:22:56.200 --> 0:22:59.800 fuel that you don't have meltdown, and so there's a 0:22:59.800 --> 0:23:04.679 lot of interest in that technology. And we've seen investment 0:23:04.800 --> 0:23:09.320 in private fusion companies in twenty nineteen and twenty hover 0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:14.040 around three million dollars each year. In twenty one we 0:23:14.080 --> 0:23:17.080 saw that jump to two and a half billion dollars. 0:23:17.160 --> 0:23:21.080 And so we have philanthropists, sovereign wealth funds, oil companies, 0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:25.359 of rody industrial companies looking at placing a bet on 0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:28.359 fusion technology because they think that it will have a 0:23:28.480 --> 0:23:32.640 role in power generation portfolios in the future as well. 0:23:33.200 --> 0:23:35.040 Just in the last two weeks or so, we've had 0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:38.399 about seven hundred fifty million dollars committed to two different 0:23:38.400 --> 0:23:42.080 fusion companies, private fusing companies in the UK and in 0:23:42.240 --> 0:23:45.359