1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: The volume. 2 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 2: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. 3 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 1: What is up straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. 4 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Straight Fire for Friday, January nineteenth, Big Big Football Weekend 5 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: is here, Divisional playoff weekend. Eight teams left, only seven 6 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 1: NFL games left on the slate. And to usher that 7 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: schedule in, we have Doug Kazarian, former ESPN gambling guy. 8 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 1: He's kind of started his own deal. He's had a 9 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: lot of success on the on the gambling contests, placed 10 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: I believe in top fifty in both contests. He posted 11 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: about it on his Instagram. Congrats to Doug. We break 12 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: down all the games and talk about, like, you know, 13 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: the life of a pro gambler. He's not technically a 14 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: pro gambler since he's taking money. It's an interesting discussion. 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: I think you like it. Of course, we are mostly 16 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:04,919 Speaker 1: on the same sides for the games, especially the Kansas 17 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 1: City one. Before we get to that couple of items 18 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: little house cleaning to take care of here. I initially 19 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: was not going to respond, but Rob's like, yeah, you 20 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: need to respond. As some of you may have seen. 21 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 2: Cam Newton, you know, he waited. 22 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: Layane in the cut did not reply initially when I 23 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: put out I don't know, a month ago, did Dak 24 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: Prescott had a better career than Cam? Not a not 25 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 1: just the facts, like look at the numbers, look at 26 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: the consistency of Dak, look at the passing struggles of Cam. Yes, 27 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: I know he's a dual, right guy at any rate. 28 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: The Herd put the video out when I hosted I 29 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: don't know, a month month ago, maybe maybe more six weeks, 30 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: I don't know, And at the time people were an 31 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: op robert nothing from Cam Newton, which is fine. So 32 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: Cam waited. He called Dak a game manager. He called 33 00:01:55,840 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: TUA game manager Jared Goff and Brock Purdy, and two 34 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: of those three will finish in the top three in 35 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: MVP voting. I'm pretty sure Perdy and Dak. Maybe Josh 36 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 1: Allen sneaks in ahead. But essentially I pushed back on 37 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: Cam and I was like, dude, what are you talking about? Like, yeah, 38 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: you won an MVP, Yeah you went to a Super Bowl. 39 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: I mean you never had back to back winning seasons. 40 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 1: And you know, I listen, it was rooted in fact. 41 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: This is not like straight up opinion. I know everybody 42 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: remembers Cam. The dab Superman. I was a huge Cam 43 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: Newton fan. He's a Cuban eyghlight reel. And then you 44 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: start to dig into the numbers and yeah, I know 45 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: sometimes the numbers lie. I don't think they lie here. 46 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see if Cam gets into the 47 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. My guess is no, we won't have 48 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: like the career numbers. And I think this kind of 49 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: a reason he's out of the league so early. Anyways, 50 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: so Dak struggled against the Packers, another playoff letdown pick 51 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: six early interception by Jerry Alexander. They lose and Cam 52 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: comes out, I got the receipts, Jay, don't try to 53 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: do this that and coming after me on a post 54 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: that they put on I guess this podcast and they 55 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: put it on Twitter and Instagram or whatever, and of 56 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: course he, I guess didn't do his homework or tried 57 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: to do his homework. And he's like, now, if I 58 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 1: was to talk about you, you got fired from your job, 59 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: you flunked out of school, And I was like, wait, 60 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: what funked out of school? Do I need to take 61 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: a picture of my diploma and post it? Like I 62 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: don't know where he got I don't know who's helping 63 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 1: him with research at any rate. The funniest part is, like, 64 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: you know, you get aggregated every now and then, but 65 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: this was totally different in terms of you know, who's 66 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: aggregating it and are they tagging me? So you know 67 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: you got complex sports, no tag a couple something called 68 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: baller Alert which has like eight million followers. Bro, how 69 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: are you gonna do a post talk about me, talk 70 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: about Cam the pods blah blah blah, and not even 71 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: took a boy up with a tag you got eight 72 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: million followers? 73 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 2: Very strange. 74 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: I thought that was a little disrespectful. Frankly, At any rate, 75 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna waste my time going into it. Like 76 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: you can look at the numbers. You know, yes, Cam 77 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: had a bad playoff game. Listen, perfect time to come 78 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: after somebody get aggressive. I totally get that. But the 79 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: fact of the matter is he Cam has one more 80 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: playoff win than Dak Prescott. Dak's got like five six 81 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: more good years left in the league. Okay, these three 82 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: years of three straight years twelve win seasons for Dak, 83 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: like Cam never got back to back winning seasons. You know, 84 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: Like there's a reason running quarterbacks don't thrive and get 85 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: the Super Bowls. Maybe Lamar Buck's that trend, but I 86 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, I don't think he has much 87 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: to stand on. But go off king In other news, Now, 88 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 1: this one was interesting. Mike Florio is floating the idea 89 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: that Andy Reid could retire after this season, regardless that 90 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: they win or don't. And it's funny because as we're 91 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: prepping for the Herd, you guys know I'm host hosting today, 92 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: one of the topics that I had sent to the 93 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: team was what happens if the chief lose this game 94 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: in Buffalo? And like the second order effects, the third 95 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: order effects, just this is interesting. So the number one 96 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: thing is Mahomes's cap hit is thirty seven mil this year. 97 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: That jumps to fifty seven next year. Here are their 98 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: free agents. I went through the free agent list in 99 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. So Chris Jones is not happy with them. 100 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: Remember he was holding out, missed the opener. He wants out, 101 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: He wants to get paid. Chiefs aren't gonna pay him. 102 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: So Chris Jones our best defensive lineman gone. Donovan Smith 103 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:41,919 Speaker 1: is starting left tackle free agent. He has not had 104 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: a great season. Mike Edwards starting safety. He's been pretty good. Yeah, okay, 105 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: he's been good. Free agent the kid, Willie Gay, the linebacker, 106 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: Derek Nandi, the defensive tackle who he's been awful this year. 107 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: He's graded out as one of the worst defensive tackles 108 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: in the league. Jerrek McKinnon invaluable number two back behind Pacheco. 109 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: He's a free agent and Lugarious sneed the cornerback who 110 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,559 Speaker 1: they love now. I cannot imagine them losing him. He's 111 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: been excellent, one of the top corners in the league. 112 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: Big physical guy, got in Tyreek Hill's face. Between him 113 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 1: and McDuffie, it's a dynamic duel. Those are all free agents. 114 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: And Mahomes' capit goes up by twenty million dollars. And oh, 115 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: by the way, Travis Kelce, I'm not ready to say 116 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: he's washed. He's had some distractions this year. Maybe he's 117 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: not his focus, but he's getting up there in age. 118 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 1: The numbers have not fallen off a cliff, but they've 119 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: gone down. So you tie all this together, you say, 120 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: oh boy, there's no direct path to major success, like 121 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: but maybe Rashid Rice breaks out as a star and 122 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: they draft some kid in the first round. Who's a 123 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: baller on the perceiver? I don't know, But there is 124 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: a path where the Chiefs, who had an amazing run 125 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: are now kind of sort of sputtering okay, And you wonder, 126 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: is the reason Vrabel's been so quiet on the coaching 127 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: front is because he's aware of this and Rabel, who 128 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: actually played near the end of his career with the Chiefs, 129 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: maybe Rabel knows this, and maybe Rabel's like slow playing 130 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: everyone else and he's trying to jump in and get 131 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: Andy Ree's job. Brabel, let me see, so he went, 132 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: he was in Pittsburgh, the New England and yeah, the 133 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: final two years of his career were in Casey, you know, 134 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: two thousand and nine, twenty ten. You wonder, Oh, well, 135 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: love to get back to k C'd love to have 136 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahoe. If you think the Chargers good job is good, 137 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: what about the Chiefs job with Patrick mahomes Now. Obviously, 138 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: staying on top forever is difficult. The league is structured, 139 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: so nobody does that. Belichick and Brady were a massive 140 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: outlier doing it for like two decades until that fell apart. 141 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: It just is it's an interesting potential, not derailment. Of 142 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: the Mahomes train. But again, if they lose his first 143 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: playoff road game, maybe it's not like a rebuild, but 144 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: like a reload. They do have a bunch of free 145 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: agents I just rattled off. And oh, by the way, 146 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,679 Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh may be coming in the division with the Chargers. 147 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: Sean Payton will not stay down for long. It sounds 148 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 1: like Antonio Pierce's staying with the Raiders, which isn't bad. 149 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: But I'll wrap it up here before we get to Kazarian. 150 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: If you look at the eight teams left in the 151 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: division round, okay, here are what the quarterbacks are making. 152 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: You've got Purdy Stroud and Jordan Love on their essentially 153 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: their rookie deals. Jordan Love had like a two year 154 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: deal at the end of his rookie deal. Basically he 155 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 1: had like a slight tear up and approved deal, which 156 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: is essentially the rookie deal. Baker and Goff are firmly 157 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: middle class quarterbacks in terms of pay. And then you 158 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: had three guys at the top, Lamar who just got 159 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: his new deal, you had Patrick Mahomes obviously, and you 160 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: had Josh Allen. You have to wonder the next batch. 161 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: The next guy's coming up, Does Trevor Lawrence get paid? 162 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert's been paid, Joe Burrow's been paid. How difficult 163 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: is it gonna be now that these teams are paying 164 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: their quarterback? And do we see I don't know, is 165 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: Stroud here to stay for a couple of years because 166 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers cracked the list, Tua and Miami were close. 167 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: Do they reboot around a new quarterback and they're right 168 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: back here next year. I'm just the most fascinating thing 169 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: about the NFL is these quarterbacks on the cheap deals. 170 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: You know, the Niners aren't going anywhere. Eagles just paid 171 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: Hurts Like, It's really fascinating to look at the team 172 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: build up, especially around the quarterback. And now, without further ado, 173 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: let's get to our NFL Divisional wild card guest Doug Kazarian. 174 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 2: You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows 175 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 2: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports fans. 176 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,199 Speaker 3: Want, but for everything he doesn't. 177 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 2: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I 178 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 2: know a guy who knows the guy who knows another guy. 179 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight Fire, a first time 180 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: guest on the podcast. We couldn't get him before or 181 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: because he used to be at ESPN. He's a gambling guy, 182 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 1: lives in Vegas. Just did well in the season long 183 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: Circa Millions contest. Doug Kazarian, Doug, how are you, mom? 184 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 3: Man? 185 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: It's good to connect. I know we talked about having 186 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: me on while ago. I apologize for the delay on 187 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 2: my end, but I'm doing well. I'm doing well situated 188 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 2: here in Vegas. It has been about wow, three and 189 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 2: a half years now. I lived here originally seven years before, 190 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 2: so over a decade total in Vegas and things are good. 191 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: Man. 192 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 2: I'm really happy all that good stuff, and I'm excited 193 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 2: to be joining you here on the podcast. 194 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: Yeah. I can barely handle like a three day weekend 195 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: in Vegas. You're doing a decade. Wow, that's impressive. We've 196 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: had ESPN guys on fort and Ball's been on Preston 197 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 1: Johnson a bunch of times. But you bring like a 198 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 1: different element because you walked away from the ESPN and 199 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: now you got your own deal going on, and you're like, 200 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: I don't know, Doug, if somebody says you're a professional gambler, Like, 201 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: how do you react to that? 202 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 3: Like? 203 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 2: So it's funny and my Buddy and I were talking 204 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 2: about this. Technically, I think you can only be a 205 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 2: professional better or gambler if you're only source of income, 206 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 2: or let's say ninety percent of your income comes from betting. 207 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 2: I think it's hard to say I do this, but 208 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 2: then I'm also like, I get a big paycheck from 209 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:13,439 Speaker 2: somewhere else. Like the true professional betters I know, and 210 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 2: most of the ones are off the grid. 211 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 3: Their only source of income is betting. 212 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: Now, once legalization happened, you saw some qualified, legitimate pro betters, 213 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 2: like you mentioned Preston, Like he was for X amount 214 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 2: of years or whatever it was, and then he started 215 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 2: to do some some on air stuff here and there 216 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 2: city ESPN part time. 217 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 3: And I don't think that. 218 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 2: He loses his credibility at all as a professional better. 219 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 2: That's not fair to him because this was just surplus 220 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 2: and there's so much overlap. It's only he was like 221 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,839 Speaker 2: a lawyer on the side, and you know, had these 222 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 2: these worlds overlapped and of the ven diagram. I just 223 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 2: I think some people talk about being a pro better 224 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 2: and then they're like have a regular gig where they 225 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 2: get paid, and it's just like, well, so I can't 226 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 2: say that now this whole venture I'm on is different, 227 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 2: and I definitely doubt thought about going off on my 228 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 2: own and writing off in the Sunset, But I think 229 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 2: just where I was in my broadcasting career and where 230 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 2: the space was in terms of the betting space, I 231 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 2: didn't think it was like the sound judgment. I had 232 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: to see this project and wanted to do this venture. 233 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: But my partner is a one hundred percent pro better 234 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 2: Wow the guy he is like off the grid. And 235 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 2: that's the thing that people don't realize is that the sharpest, sharpest, 236 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 2: sharpest guys in the world, aside from a few that 237 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 2: have done some contests and we'll do a spot on 238 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 2: a podcast like yourselves or so, the most of them 239 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 2: are off the grid, completely involved in syndicates and things 240 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 2: like that. 241 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 3: And I think, and I haven't done a good enough 242 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 3: job of explaining this. 243 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 2: I'll let you guys and let your audience have it 244 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: as anonymity is like the Holy Grail and pro betting 245 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 2: because these sports books cut everyone off. You're I mean, 246 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: people don't realize it's because they see the tweets from 247 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 2: these sports books saying, oh, we took a three hundred 248 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 2: thousand dollars bet. Pro betters get limited and get cut off. 249 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 2: I'm not allowed to bet at three sports books here 250 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 2: in sound and my limits have been cut in some 251 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 2: of the other books on the national scale. And it 252 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 2: just is what it is. It's part of the business 253 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 2: because they have a bottom line to maintain, and I 254 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 2: get it. But don't think that pro betters could just 255 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 2: walk in any book and bet over the counter. Like 256 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 2: they get limited, they get asked and not play there 257 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 2: anymore because they're advantaged players. It's like card counting, right, 258 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 2: so there, and that's the parallel. It it's not the 259 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: same as card counting, and I know a Portnoyd made 260 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 2: that comparison a while ago with something. But it's just 261 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:23,839 Speaker 2: you're an edge player and you're gonna bet where you 262 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 2: think is ntche now an edge? Maybe in the Super 263 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 2: Bowl the favorite minus three and a half points or 264 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 2: whatever it is, but it's typically some other stuff, some 265 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 2: second half totals or whatever. So pro betters who make 266 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 2: a lot of money, it's not worth them to go 267 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 2: do a TV show because they're going to lose their 268 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 2: anonymity and not get paid accordingly. So like these networks pay, 269 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 2: you know, Fox pays all these Jimmy Johnson and all 270 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 2: these other expert They pay them handsomely. Pro betters would 271 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 2: love to get paid like that to go talk about 272 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 2: betting on TV, but the networks aren't paying that for 273 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 2: an ex professional better like they are an ex professional 274 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:00,199 Speaker 2: football player or a basketball player or whatever. So they're 275 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 2: not it's not worth it to them financially to give 276 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 2: that up to go be on TV because they lose 277 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 2: that their anonymity because like, for example, my partner goes 278 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 2: into sports books, like where's a fake credential? Like he's 279 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 2: in there for a convention, and the cash tickets and 280 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 2: things like that, they hide amongst the masses, and so 281 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 2: he's yeah. 282 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: But lastly when he comes in, I mean, like you 283 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 1: can hide as much as you want, but if you're like, hey, 284 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: i gotta collect one hundred and fifty K, they're gonna 285 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: look at the ide and he's gonna get he's gonna 286 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: get banned. 287 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 2: No, right, right, But he's betting you know the max 288 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 2: bet it on like a prop which is like five 289 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 2: hundred dolls. You know, he's it's not just betting one 290 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 2: hundred fifty k. He's getting down, doing other ways to 291 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: get down so there's just other ways to do it. 292 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: Kiosky, you can do other. 293 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 2: Things, but it's just not worth it to the real, 294 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 2: real guys who you know, who really thrive in this element. 295 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 3: Now, some may want to do it eventually and. 296 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 2: Get sick of the rat race and get sick of 297 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: getting cut off and doing all the all the headaches 298 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 2: that come with it. 299 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 3: But that's what people need to realize. So in a 300 00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 3: lot of ways, like. 301 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: The experts on TV or whatever in the in the 302 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 2: betting space are are not really like the Super Bowl champs, 303 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 2: if you will, if you want to do the parallels 304 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 2: of football like, they're not out there because the sharpest 305 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 2: of the sharp Now some are and I and I 306 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 2: obviously talk to all of them, and I want to 307 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: I shared that on air for so long and obviously 308 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 2: I learned along the way. 309 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 3: But it's there's a lot of just like. 310 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 2: Content creators out there, and it's really become like sort 311 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 2: of sports radio with just a different entry point. 312 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 3: Right. 313 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of the platforms and that's okay, that 314 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 2: doesn't mean it's bad. And sometimes the topics can get 315 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 2: a little technical, but you know, the day like we're 316 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 2: taping this, like the day after Mike McCarthy's brought Back 317 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 2: or the Day Mike MacCarthy, Like, a lot of quote 318 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 2: unquote betting shows that have three hour shows and two 319 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 2: hour shows are talking about the Cowboys and McCarthy and 320 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 2: reacting from sort of like a sports talk radio standpoint 321 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 2: and not necessarily betting standpointing. So it's a lot of 322 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 2: just content that's being discussed, often through the lens of 323 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 2: the entry point of betting. But it's not like, hey, 324 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 2: you listen to this, you'll make money, which. 325 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: No, no iget, which I get. I don't think anyone 326 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: thinks that, right. I mean, I would hope people, you know, 327 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: don't say, hey, you know X person on ESPN has 328 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: a gambling deal with DraftKings whatever, I'm gonna listen to 329 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: them and make money like that. I think I would 330 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: assume this. I know this audience knows better than that. 331 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: I mean, we've had Rufus Peabody on. He's a technically 332 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 1: a professional gambler. I know he has his own little shop. 333 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: I don't know, Doug, but do you even want to 334 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: be a professional gambler? Like the stress of just you know, 335 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: being gambling all the time, Like don't you need like frankly, Doug, 336 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: I'm excited for the NFL season to end. I'm just 337 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: worn down from gambling the entire season and being on 338 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: top of it and producing content like it wears you down. 339 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 3: It does. But I've been betting every day for like 340 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 3: the last fifteen years, so. 341 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, every day. 342 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 2: And you say stressed. I mean, I'm sure there's days 343 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 2: I take off here and there. But like with the 344 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 2: sports I do, So I do NFL and. 345 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: College yeah, and I do NBA yeah. 346 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 2: With some college basketball, and then WNBA in the summer 347 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 2: and I'll bet like ten bag baseball games a year, 348 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 2: So okay, all right, at least regularly, but like WNBA 349 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: takes like a couple of days off they're in the week. 350 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 3: But also, like I do so much live. 351 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 2: Betting that the grind of like hammering out, like prepping 352 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 2: in the morning of like baseball lines, Like I don't 353 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 2: do any of that. Like the broadcasting career is like 354 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 2: exhausting too, Like it was fifteen hours, you know, twelve 355 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 2: hour days and stuff like that, just you know, getting 356 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 2: ready like anything. But you know it as you've grinded 357 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 2: your whole life, and you. 358 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: Know they're like, hey, hey, we got we got to 359 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: manufacture six minutes here can you? Can you do six minutes? 360 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: Like that's cake? But if it's like, hey man, I 361 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 1: need you at the at the gambling kiosk, or I 362 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: need you at this computer screen so we don't miss 363 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,199 Speaker 1: the half point move for I need you there for 364 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: like four hours, Like to me, that's brutal zero two things. 365 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 2: It's cake for you to do six minutes vamping. But 366 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 2: the reason it's cake is all the hours you've put in, 367 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 2: but also the prep you've put in, investing and immersing 368 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 2: yourself in the space, like I can you know the 369 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 2: nightly YouTube show I do like I VAMP, I have 370 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 2: no I have some notes, but I don't script anything, 371 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 2: and I do thirty minutes like that's because I'm twenty 372 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 2: four seven living this stuff and I've watched every NBA game. 373 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 2: I have a five TV set up and I watch 374 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 2: every so I can talk about every team in VAMP. 375 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 2: But the same way is for you and broadcasting. But 376 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 2: to your point, and that's a great point, and you 377 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 2: can pull back the curtain. There's a lot of people 378 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,479 Speaker 2: who do log those hours and screen chase and screen 379 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 2: scalp and do all that I do not. Obviously, you 380 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 2: always want the best number, but I'm such a different handicapper, 381 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 2: and I don't sit there all day and grind and 382 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 2: run around a kios like once in a blue moon 383 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 2: if I see like a rogue situation or whatever. Yes, 384 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 2: but you're right, I couldn't put in those hours. Like 385 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 2: I have a buddy who's basically does what you do 386 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: on Wall Street derivative trading. He's an arbitrage better and 387 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 2: he just literally scalps basically prop bets, and so he 388 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 2: used to back when I first lived here from five 389 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 2: to twelve, used to drive around the books and literally 390 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 2: take like Kobe over twenty eight and a half points 391 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 2: minus one, ten under thirty and a half, you know, 392 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 2: even money and basically create a contract that Kobe would 393 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 2: land exactly twenty nine to thirty. I could never do that, 394 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 2: but I mean he's made me obviously is a multimillion 395 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 2: dollar house. He's done a bunch of stuff, you know, 396 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 2: just that across the board. It's very lucrative, but to 397 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 2: your point, it's exhausting. It takes years off your life. 398 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 2: It's not the path I have, man, But there are 399 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 2: different forms of pro betting and to your point that 400 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 2: one is definitely more taxing and that kind of stuff. 401 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 2: I'm just more in game betting and things along those lines. 402 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 2: And then I'm handicapping in advance. 403 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: In terms of sitting in front of a screen like 404 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 1: we had Will Hill. You know him, of course, so 405 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: you know he sent me a DM. Hey, this line 406 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 1: is like way off if you want to jump on it. 407 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: This was like three weeks ago, I think college football 408 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: team total. I didn't see it for like four hours. 409 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,239 Speaker 1: You know, I'm not like, I'm not like all up 410 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: on social media. I got the wife, I got the kids, 411 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: I got the dog. Like I don't know, so I'm 412 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 1: not as doubted. Sorry I missed an opportunity there, but 413 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 1: I don't know. It used to take some years off 414 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,159 Speaker 1: your life, Like how is the Vegas living when it 415 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: comes to gambling, Like there's only seven games left in 416 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: the NFL season right for this weekend. I don't know, 417 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: you're not worn down from doing in game betting all season? 418 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 3: Oh? 419 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,719 Speaker 2: I sure, I am. I was telling you yesterday over 420 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 2: text to try to schedule. I have the flu. 421 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 3: I'm coming back from it, so I had to, like, 422 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 3: you know, gauge my energy level. But I think I'm not, 423 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 3: but again I don't. 424 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,360 Speaker 2: I don't hammer openers on Saturday morning for the next 425 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 2: week's college football or Sunday night for next week. That's 426 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 2: just not what I do because I'm producing my show 427 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 2: or whatever. 428 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 3: There's only so much you can do. 429 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 2: Like my partner hasn't bet an NBA game in ten years, 430 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 2: hasn't been a baseball game in twelve years, and he 431 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 2: only bets college about that. You just can't do it all, right, 432 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 2: especially because the TV executive is now stage every game, 433 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 2: so it's a full day. I mean, every holiday is 434 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 2: now a betting holiday, so Christmas, Thanksgiving, everything is like 435 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 2: it's just these games are separated all throughout the day 436 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,880 Speaker 2: and there's no break. So yes, it does become taxing 437 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 2: from a in game betting standpoint, gotcha there. And there's 438 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 2: also so many people in the space now right, There's 439 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 2: so many experts of every field that you have to 440 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 2: sort of combine talents, Like I have people I really 441 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 2: rely on for golf because I like golf action. I 442 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 2: can't hate acaps. So I have a guys that I 443 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 2: consult and I don't even say partner that they just 444 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 2: share information. I mean, if I hit one of their things, 445 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 2: I'll throw them, you know, throw them some money or whatever, 446 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,959 Speaker 2: but I want I want their two hundred and one 447 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,439 Speaker 2: or they're eighty to one or thirty to one, you know, 448 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 2: for the weekend. So I got a little rooting interest, 449 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 2: and they've already played it. So they tell me what 450 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 2: they play, and if I can get something similar, I'll 451 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 2: play it and obviously take them out to dinner or whatever, 452 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 2: thank them or give them a shout out on air 453 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,959 Speaker 2: or whatever, and then I'll do the same for them. 454 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 2: Right if I have an MBA situation or something like 455 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 2: that that lines up that I want to. 456 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 3: Share with people. 457 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 2: So there's a I don't want to say honor amongst these, 458 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 2: but there's definitely like some shared information because you guys 459 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 2: are all in it together, but you're also competing against 460 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 2: one another in a lot of ways. So there's some 461 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 2: stuff you have to take care of yourself first, but 462 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 2: everyone can eat in a lot of ways amongst your 463 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 2: peers or amongst your circle. I think the inner circle 464 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 2: is the key, and that's what I've tried to share 465 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 2: on air throughout my last handful of years of ESPN, 466 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 2: and even now is my inner circle sort of works, 467 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 2: and I try to aggregate from that, and I appreciate 468 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 2: the efforts of everyone involved, and I try to return 469 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 2: as much as I can. 470 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to NFL games this week. First 471 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 1: of all, did you bet any of the openers or 472 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 1: what was the first game you bet this weekend? Well, 473 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: it's a total first half, any prop whatever? 474 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 2: Right, the only position I have right now I was 475 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 2: Ravens minus nine and minus nine and a half. It's 476 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 2: by far my favorite play for this four game slate. 477 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 2: I'm I think it's and I love seeing things after 478 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 2: the fact, but I love seeing that the publics on 479 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 2: the Texans and it. I just think people are overreacting 480 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 2: to two things. One is the last time of the 481 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 2: Ravens were the one seed when Lamar was the MVP. 482 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 2: First of all, he was twenty two that season, just 483 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: turned twenty three in early January, so like days before 484 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 2: they lost. 485 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 3: It was his second year in the NFL. 486 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 2: It's insane, right, this is a completely different guy and 487 00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 2: this is a completely different team. And that game against 488 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,959 Speaker 2: Tennessee was weird. They had two fourth down stops. Now 489 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 2: he had a couple of picks and there was a fumble. 490 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 2: I get it. But he's so much more polished now 491 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 2: than that year. On top of that, this is the 492 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 2: best set of weapons he's ever had from a receiving standpoint. Now, 493 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 2: I know Andrews is just coming back, but it was 494 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 2: like all about the running, rushing attack, his just cheat 495 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 2: code being how awesome he is, but he didn't have 496 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 2: this kind of like diversity from his receiving standpoints. And 497 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 2: I just think the team as a whole is better 498 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 2: than that year. They were dominant because it was a 499 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 2: shock to the system what he was doing and how 500 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 2: different it was than what opposing defenses were seeing. Now 501 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 2: a lot of people see mobile quarterbacks and things like that. 502 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 2: I just think that offense is special and they don't 503 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 2: get conservative with the lead. They step on their throat. 504 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 2: They'll press, Like even against the Niners, they kept scoring 505 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 2: on that Monday and night game. So that's the number 506 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 2: one thing. And the other thing is just everyone talks 507 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,360 Speaker 2: about these stats and all the you know, teams don't 508 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 2: cover these spreads after a bye week, and they're if 509 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 2: you look at just the last five years, the teams 510 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 2: that had to buy or the one seeds that ended 511 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 2: up not covering it was like Mahomes had a hurt 512 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 2: ankle or he got substituted out for Chad Henny because 513 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 2: he had a concussion or something like that. Or the 514 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans, who were a farce of a one seed. 515 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 2: They weren't even like really big favorites, right. So, and 516 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 2: then there was one year where I think the Saints 517 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 2: didn't cover against the Eagles, and that was totally legit. 518 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 2: They only won by six, and that was a good 519 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 2: cover by the dog. But besides that, like the year 520 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 2: the Eagles were the one seed, but that was the 521 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 2: one seed because they've had Wentz and then Foles was 522 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 2: the quarterback. Like they ended up being home hunderdogs in 523 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 2: the NFC Championship game anyway, So a lot of the 524 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 2: times they otherwise we've seen teams just get trucked. Like 525 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 2: these teams that win the first week look pretty good. 526 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 2: But why did Houston win? They have a dynamic quarterback. 527 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 2: They were at home and they were playing a Cleveland 528 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 2: team that had a quarterback that was on a couch 529 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 2: a month ago, right, Like there wasn't really a true 530 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 2: playoff team, like they've got wins. The Browns did like 531 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 2: with their defense, and then they beat like the Jets 532 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 2: at home. No offense to your Jets, but like they 533 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 2: beat the Jets at home on a Thursday night, everyone's celebrating. 534 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 2: This wasn't like a U or not out of a 535 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 2: wild card team or whatever, like, like, they weren't that good. 536 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 2: And even Flacco give him all the credit in the world. 537 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 2: It played well and they got but. 538 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 3: He was still throwing interceptions and these. It was. 539 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 2: They just won games that they were much that they 540 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 2: figured out a way to win down the stretch. And 541 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 2: I don't know. Houston is good and Stroud's gonna be great. 542 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 2: I love where they're headed, but this is a different ass. 543 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 2: They're going on the road. Baltimore is a juggernaut. They're 544 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 2: probably the best team in the league. I like laying 545 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 2: the points, and you have a great kicker and Tucker. 546 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 2: If you need that two score lead, I think I 547 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 2: think they're gonna cover pretty pretty easily. 548 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 1: So why why if you bet this quickly? Why not 549 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: the same vibe on the Niners against Jordan love Well. 550 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 2: I think the Packers are much different team the second half, right, 551 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,159 Speaker 2: So this Packers version, We've seen teams over the years 552 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 2: get hot. You know, the Giants who won the Super 553 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 2: Bowl and beat the eighteen and oh Patriots. Like we've 554 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 2: seen teams make runs. For example, we've only had the 555 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 2: one seed versus one seed in the Super Bowl four 556 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 2: times in the last eleven years, fourteen times in the 557 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,920 Speaker 2: last like forty five years or something ridiculous. So we 558 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 2: do see upsets of these one seeds. And I like 559 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 2: the Niners a lot, and I do think they come 560 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 2: out of the NFC, but covering nine and a half, 561 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 2: like when perties had to play down the trailing, it's 562 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 2: not been that pretty. Like Week two, I had him 563 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 2: laying points against the Rams and it was tied late 564 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 2: third quarter. And now that's unfair to cherry pick a 565 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 2: Week two game that was probably like his worst game, frankly, 566 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 2: except for the Ravens game. 567 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 3: But I mean, he's been great and I think they cover. 568 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 2: But I don't know if this Packers team is just 569 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 2: like that much better than they were the first half 570 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 2: of the year. 571 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 3: Love and all this stuff. He's looked great the back 572 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 3: half of the year. 573 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 2: I mean Aaron Jones, like, you know, he turned back 574 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,159 Speaker 2: the clock last week. Now, I don't think they'll gash 575 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 2: San fran like they gashed Dallas. But this Packers team 576 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 2: I think is way more reliable or excuse me, their 577 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 2: ceiling I think is higher. I think they have more 578 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 2: weapons than this Houston team that obviously has out, but 579 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 2: they've lost tank down. I mean, they have some weapons, 580 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 2: but I think their defense could get really torched as well, 581 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: and I think the Packers defense could too. But I 582 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 2: just think the gap is strong as wider with the Ravens, 583 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:12,639 Speaker 2: and he just in that it is. 584 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 3: In the NFC. 585 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 1: Draftking sports Book, an official sports betting partner of the 586 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 1: NFL Playoffs, is bringing you an offer that will help 587 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 1: make the playoffs electrifying. New customers can bet five bucks 588 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: on any game and get two hundred instantly in bonus bets. 589 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 1: So yeah, if you were taking a favorite, say on Sunday, 590 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: parlayed with another favorite, say on Sunday, there's a real 591 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 1: good opportunity for you to cash here. 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I know it's 609 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: baked in, but I can't get over the extra two 610 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: days the Chiefs have to be ready for this game, 611 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 1: and I can't get over the bills injury report. I'm 612 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 1: waiting to monitor it. I'm assuming if more than linebackers 613 00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: and dbs are out that we're gonna see this go 614 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 1: down to two maybe one and a half. It's weird. 615 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: You mentioned earlier that the public like the Texans A 616 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: Where do you go to see who the public is on. 617 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: It varies among guests, and then b what are you 618 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 1: seeing for this game? Public versus I don't use. 619 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 2: It as a arbiter of my bet. Yeah, so I 620 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 2: don't care if I line up with the public. If 621 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,400 Speaker 2: I love the Texans this week and I saw the 622 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 2: Texans on or the public on the Texans, I'd be 623 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 2: fine with it. Like they win, you know about fifty 624 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 2: percent of the times. It's just it's a gewist that kicks 625 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 2: it in and the market is what it is. You 626 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 2: raised a good point about the number having stuff baked in, 627 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 2: yes and no. So odds makers hate anything that's like 628 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 2: a variable. So what they want is both teams at 629 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 2: full strength, you know, no injuries like, no like extra rest, nothing, 630 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 2: because they the number is going to be a true number. 631 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 2: And I think people need to realize this the betting 632 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 2: market and in the NFL especially, You know, something so 633 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,080 Speaker 2: liquid and high volume like a playoff game is the 634 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 2: the truest thing that they have to a coin flip 635 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 2: or like the casino floor. So the Rolett wheel. Think 636 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 2: about the Roulett wheel. We know the odds of red 637 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 2: and black and then there's two greens, right, if you 638 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 2: bet red, you're getting paid fifty to fifty one to 639 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 2: one on that. But the house has the black and 640 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 2: then the two extra greens. That sliver that they have 641 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 2: is the edge. That's I know the math doesn't quite 642 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 2: match up, but that's like the equivalent of minus one 643 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 2: ten right there. You're laying odds and you're only gonna win, 644 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 2: you know, you're that's the edges that the books have. 645 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 2: So they want a they want a true point spread, 646 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 2: and they'll just collect over time. They'll let you bet 647 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 2: as much as you want over time, and so if 648 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 2: the public wins, they don't care because the public is 649 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 2: just gonna bet another spin of the roulette wheel where 650 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 2: they have the edge whatever color, plus the two greens. 651 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 2: So to your point about it's baked in, and think 652 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 2: it's baked in, but you may think it has a 653 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 2: bigger advantage than the market, right like the moving parts 654 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 2: in this case, the injuries to the buffalo or the 655 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 2: extra rest that Kansas City has, Like it's not like 656 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 2: you know that and the odds makers don't or the 657 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 2: betting market doesn't. But the betting market may not reflect 658 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 2: it as much as you prioritize it. Not that you 659 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 2: have a model, but your imaginary model of columns or whatever, 660 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 2: you're putting a higher weight on that than maybe the 661 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 2: market does. And that's where all these math model lers 662 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 2: you bet against one another, that's where they differ. They 663 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 2: prioritize like an O line injury or whatever. So just 664 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,400 Speaker 2: in your head, you're prioritizing that. For me, I'm prioritizing Mahomes. 665 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 2: I don't think people realize how much of a difference 666 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 2: maker he is, Like we know he's the face of 667 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 2: the NFL and all that, But I mean I did 668 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 2: a story when Belichick, excuse me, when Brady left New 669 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 2: England that Brady and Belichick was the best head coach 670 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 2: quarterback combo in the history of sports betting. Now, Walsh 671 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 2: and Montana had a slightly better ATS cover percentage, but 672 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 2: the market was nowhere near as tight then in the 673 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 2: eighties and nineties as it was now. And I had 674 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 2: quotes for math modelers Light Preston, who said, look, I 675 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 2: adjusted my numbers as much as possible. 676 00:31:58,480 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 3: I still cannot. 677 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,080 Speaker 2: Figure out how to properly adjust for Belichick. He was 678 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 2: doing things that we, as prognosticators and predictive modeling could 679 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 2: not figure out he was just that good. Now, that's 680 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 2: because he would make teams play left handed stuff like 681 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 2: previous stats were not really actionable moving forward for Belichick 682 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 2: because he would just think of different ways to beat 683 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,640 Speaker 2: the next opponent. And I think Mahomes is kind of 684 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 2: like that. He's just a difference maker. When he's an underdog, 685 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: he's crazy against the spread. When he's favored by three 686 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 2: or less, he's ridiculous. So I just think now they 687 00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 2: may cover, of course, but I think it's silly to 688 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 2: bet on Buffalo when these when these points spreads are involved, Like, 689 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 2: there's just got to be better things to do, even 690 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 2: on Sunday, whether it be a college basketball game or 691 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 2: an NBA game, Like I think it's still I think 692 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 2: I think you can take plus three with with Casey. 693 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,120 Speaker 2: I'm hoping that it gets back to three D because 694 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 2: it's flirted with three a little bit all weak and 695 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 2: maybe I'll just wait for end game or something like that. 696 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 2: I just don't think there's I just don't think you're 697 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 2: gonna win long term betting against Mahomes, laying points even 698 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 2: at home and things like that. To your pointed, the 699 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 2: rest edge and the injury edge is there, with Kansas City. 700 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and now you mentioned trends. We don't do a 701 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:02,959 Speaker 1: ton of them on here. Obviously you could throw them 702 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 1: out there. But I do know, I because I hear 703 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: from people. I mean, I don't like watch or listen 704 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,640 Speaker 1: to some of these other guys, but it seems like 705 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,920 Speaker 1: other gambling people are pushing trends like you are exclusively 706 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 1: betting trends. And I don't know, Doug, that just feels 707 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,959 Speaker 1: really dangerous. I'm not trying to call anybody out. I 708 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 1: just know when people say, hey, did you see that 709 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: this guy is twelve and two against the spread? Blah blah, 710 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 1: I'm like, do you know how tiny of a sample 711 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 1: size that is? Like? What? That's so irreltic? The whole 712 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: space coaches all this. I don't know, Doug. I don't 713 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 1: want to go off, but the whole. 714 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 3: Space is dangerous. The whole space is reckless. 715 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 2: I don't think networks in general fully understand like the 716 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,800 Speaker 2: domino effect of something like when they put out a trend, 717 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 2: like I think in their vacuum, I think they're being fair, 718 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,960 Speaker 2: and so much of the betting public is like one 719 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 2: dollar parlace trying to make like eight thousand on the 720 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 2: nine leg So I think there's a lot of like 721 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 2: the lottery ticket component, and I think that creates that 722 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 2: it's fun content and all that stuff. And I think 723 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 2: that's why the trends and all that. I think they're 724 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 2: approaching it and executives and things like that. I look, 725 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:07,960 Speaker 2: I used to work at a network, right, Like, I 726 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,800 Speaker 2: know that they know they don't think they're like screaming 727 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,040 Speaker 2: at the TV with a nine hundred number and doing this. 728 00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 3: They're not. 729 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,799 Speaker 2: But and there are people out there and and this 730 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 2: is not indictment on the networks. It's just there are 731 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 2: people in anywhere that are just gonna like take information 732 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 2: like let's just say it's Fox or ESPN or whatever. 733 00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,480 Speaker 2: Oh my god, a person on TV said this, I'm 734 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 2: gonna tail them. But like it's a it's a it's 735 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,799 Speaker 2: an area that if you're fifty seven percent, fifty eight 736 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 2: percent success rate, you're awesome, So you're gonna. 737 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 3: Be wrong forty two percent. 738 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,360 Speaker 2: I mean, it's that's a really hard thing for people 739 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:40,959 Speaker 2: who have not met for a long time to wrap 740 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 2: their head around and to understand where's just how small 741 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 2: the margins are and you know, like you know you 742 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,439 Speaker 2: can have a good run in a contest, but that's 743 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,120 Speaker 2: not repeatable. So I just think the whole space is reckless, 744 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 2: right because we talked about pro betters aren't even in this. 745 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 2: So it's like, you know, I don't want to be 746 00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 2: too extreme, but it's almost like it's a bunch of 747 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:04,360 Speaker 2: flag football players talking about like breaking down NFL games 748 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,680 Speaker 2: and not former nflers. Right, it's a bunch of people 749 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 2: who like football. You know that's the parallel here, right people. 750 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 1: Oh well, wait, hold on, some of the NF former 751 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,719 Speaker 1: NFL players. You've been around a lot of ESPN. I'm 752 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,440 Speaker 1: around a lot of Fox. Those are the last guys 753 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 1: I'm asking for their thoughts on a game now, right, Right. 754 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,839 Speaker 1: I do love Doug asking them, Hey, you know this coach, Well, 755 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:24,920 Speaker 1: tell me how he matches up well against da da 756 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 1: Da Da da. And a couple of times I'm not 757 00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,640 Speaker 1: gonna name anybody, but it's like, listen, this quarterback cannot 758 00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 1: pass against zone at all, and then you can go 759 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: find to the stats and back that up and they're 760 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 1: gonna throw zone at him and it's gonna be a 761 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,279 Speaker 1: shit show. And like, yeah, that's the kind of small edge. 762 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 1: But I wouldn't say to like you know, Joe Bob 763 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 1: hey Man, who you got this weekend in Lions Bucks? Like, 764 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 1: there's no value there. I don't care if that guy 765 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 1: played fifteen years in the league. 766 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 3: You know. 767 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 2: I was trying to make the parallel that like, if 768 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 2: there are no pro betters in the bending vertical, then 769 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,840 Speaker 2: that's like having no NFL players former NFL players in 770 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: the NFL vertical and you have a bunch like adul 771 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,880 Speaker 2: league fag football player, right, Like that's really what it 772 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,319 Speaker 2: is talking because right now you have like anchors and 773 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,480 Speaker 2: stuff like that given out their picks for the weekend. 774 00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 2: Who and they're not promising wins or they're not doing 775 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 2: anything destructive anything or intentionally intentionally. But it's really just 776 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:16,720 Speaker 2: a very free flowing casual space. And that's fine because 777 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,560 Speaker 2: that's clearly what the public is. I don't think the public. 778 00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 2: And this is where I'm trying to go with my 779 00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,960 Speaker 2: pl you know, my new venture. And I could be 780 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 2: in the wrong, and probably I am, just given what 781 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,560 Speaker 2: the masses are. But I'm trying to go like four 782 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,080 Speaker 2: and two on an NFL Sunday or right three and one, 783 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,440 Speaker 2: things like that, whereas others are trying to do all 784 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,240 Speaker 2: these props and here's picks on every. 785 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: Game game game parlay none. 786 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,600 Speaker 2: Right, And the masses may want that and I and 787 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,439 Speaker 2: there may be no demand for what I'm doing. 788 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,520 Speaker 3: That's fine, but that's not what I do. 789 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,800 Speaker 2: I only do this and this is what I'm betting, 790 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,279 Speaker 2: and this is what my inner circle does. And you know, 791 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 2: I'm laying like the National Champions of getting I did 792 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,279 Speaker 2: a video on our homepage. It said, I'm not betting it, 793 00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,320 Speaker 2: you know, like I don't think that's going to really move. 794 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 3: The needle for your audience. 795 00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 2: But now, eventually I got in a text that like, hey, 796 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:00,960 Speaker 2: all the sharp groups are come on Michigan. It was 797 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 2: an hour before kickoff and things like that, so I 798 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 2: tweeted it. I shared that information as much as best 799 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 2: as I can. And you know, we're like trying to 800 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:08,880 Speaker 2: do an app, and we're not trying to We have 801 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:10,640 Speaker 2: an app. We're just fine tuning it right now. But 802 00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 2: like that's like sort of the problem with this is 803 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,239 Speaker 2: most people aren't like hammering games and doing stuff like 804 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:18,759 Speaker 2: I'm betting a lot things like that. 805 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 3: I'm not trying to do same game parlays. I don't 806 00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:21,840 Speaker 3: think I've ever. 807 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,359 Speaker 2: Done one now I've done a couple of I've done 808 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 2: some prop parlays and things like that when I've traveled 809 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,839 Speaker 2: because DraftKings and Fando aren't allowed in Nevada right now, 810 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 2: so that's where I live, and obviously I can't do 811 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,919 Speaker 2: them on a daily basis. But it's just different sort 812 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 2: of appetites for the consumer. But I do think you're right, 813 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,200 Speaker 2: Like there is like the trends I like to I 814 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,239 Speaker 2: do trend stuff on my show and I break it down. 815 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,959 Speaker 2: I said, Hey, I was like, does this trend make sense? 816 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:47,560 Speaker 2: And like, you know, we you know, we call it 817 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 2: tailor bail, So like I'm basically bailing on it because 818 00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,799 Speaker 2: here's why it doesn't make sense. But I do think 819 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,840 Speaker 2: there are some that are actionable. And that's what I 820 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,520 Speaker 2: think is a fun segment to dissect, is does this 821 00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 2: make sense? Like the Lions are awesome this year off 822 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 2: a loss going back to last season, I think they've 823 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,279 Speaker 2: won covered like eight straight, and to me, like that 824 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:05,879 Speaker 2: made sense. 825 00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:07,000 Speaker 3: Like they're a young team. 826 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 2: It's hard to win and keep that sustained success right, 827 00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,879 Speaker 2: Like there's a maturity that comes with playing and being 828 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:17,240 Speaker 2: one of the better teams. It's just hard, Like human 829 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,760 Speaker 2: nature to relax a little bit, but off a loss, 830 00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,080 Speaker 2: like they have the talent, like the prep going into 831 00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,719 Speaker 2: that week or whatever, like their focus is. They're all 832 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,440 Speaker 2: that kind of stuff I think is really good, like 833 00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,879 Speaker 2: in the NBA, like really good teams off a loss. 834 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 2: I like the bet on things along those times where 835 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 2: the sample size of an entire season stats is not 836 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:36,719 Speaker 2: really represented. 837 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would largely agree with that. But for instance, 838 00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,400 Speaker 1: like last weekend, you know, listen, I didn't love a 839 00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:45,240 Speaker 1: ton of the side, so I got a little exotic. 840 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,359 Speaker 1: I took an over, I took an under, and then 841 00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 1: I had, like, listen, I thought the best bet of 842 00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,800 Speaker 1: the weekend, it's kind of lame, but money line parlay, 843 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,799 Speaker 1: give me the Bills, give me the Chiefs, Like that's 844 00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,239 Speaker 1: a slam dunk. That was a non sweat at all 845 00:38:58,320 --> 00:38:59,600 Speaker 1: in any way, shape or form. 846 00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,279 Speaker 3: Right, funny, My best bet was just Kansas City money line. 847 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. So this weekend, Doug, Okay, if 848 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,600 Speaker 1: you're looking for what looks to be even money a 849 00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:13,359 Speaker 1: money line parlay Ravens Niners Lions. Who screws that up? 850 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 2: So I really like the concept of this one because 851 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:21,239 Speaker 2: the Lions are the last leg chronologically. So let's say 852 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,200 Speaker 2: you take care of business on Saturday with the two nine, 853 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,640 Speaker 2: nine and a half point favorites, you can play half 854 00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,920 Speaker 2: of that plus six and a half seven on Tampa 855 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,759 Speaker 2: if if that loses, I would say Tampa based on 856 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,120 Speaker 2: the points spreads and stuff like that. 857 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:34,919 Speaker 3: But I don't. 858 00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,959 Speaker 2: I wouldn't bet my life the Niners win this game. 859 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 2: I mean, there's there's a path in my head that 860 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:46,080 Speaker 2: like because we saw a party like be rattled in 861 00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,600 Speaker 2: that Monday Night game, like the hype. You know what 862 00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 2: it's like on any sort of big game, there's more 863 00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,839 Speaker 2: media attention to you to sit on interviews, whether it's 864 00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,240 Speaker 2: the sideline reporter or it's in this case, was Troy Aikman, 865 00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,960 Speaker 2: the color analyst for the Monday night broadcast. Like, there's 866 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,640 Speaker 2: it's just more attention. He's reading the press clippings, he's 867 00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,040 Speaker 2: here in the MVP bus, He's been asked about it 868 00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,440 Speaker 2: in previous weeks. Leading to that, he was saying McCaffrey's 869 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,880 Speaker 2: gonna be he knows the magnitude of that game, and 870 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,600 Speaker 2: he spelt out and show that. 871 00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:15,760 Speaker 1: So Purty Yes struggled against the Ravens Elite defense. Packers 872 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,200 Speaker 1: defense is complete horse maneure. Now. I know it was 873 00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,479 Speaker 1: okay last week, but I thought it was more about 874 00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,680 Speaker 1: the Dallas offense, McCarthy getting tight Dack with the bad 875 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,799 Speaker 1: pass deep in his own end. I don't really have 876 00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,200 Speaker 1: a concern with Perty. My only fear is the Niners 877 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 1: secondary right, and I do. I just know Shanahan with familiarity, 878 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 1: usually dominates. I remember last year. I'll never forget. All 879 00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,440 Speaker 1: these sharps were like, oh, you got to take Seattle 880 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,759 Speaker 1: party first playoff, start, got or take Seattle. It's like 881 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 1: seventeen sixteen Seattle at the half and I was like, 882 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,360 Speaker 1: I'm doubling down on the Niners. Fuck this, And it 883 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,800 Speaker 1: was an EASYWT second half. They just rolled him in 884 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,000 Speaker 1: the fourth, Like, Shanahan is just the best, for my money, 885 00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,480 Speaker 1: the best offensive coach in the league, and he's gonna 886 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,919 Speaker 1: make ance meat of the Packers. I like the team 887 00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 1: total for the Niners over well. 888 00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,840 Speaker 2: I guess my pushback is so Perty. I think what 889 00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:01,759 Speaker 2: was nervous? I think it was more than obviously the 890 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,640 Speaker 2: Ravens defense was excellent, But I guess my point was 891 00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 2: like he could crumble. I guess I'm just I'm thinking 892 00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,080 Speaker 2: of scenarios that like the reasons that could that part 893 00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 2: money online, part they could go up in flames, is 894 00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,279 Speaker 2: could he like be just nervous like he was that 895 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,080 Speaker 2: Monday night gig, because I think it was obviously you 896 00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:18,440 Speaker 2: give the Ravens credit, but I think some of it 897 00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:20,719 Speaker 2: was nerves. Right, he rolled right, it was a long play, 898 00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:22,320 Speaker 2: and then he forced one back over to the middle. 899 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,520 Speaker 2: Sometimes you're just rattled and you know, wet down your 900 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,680 Speaker 2: leg so to speak. So that could happen. 901 00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,239 Speaker 1: But also the Lions, Lions, Yeah, that's the. 902 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,399 Speaker 3: I think this Tampa Bay team is really good. 903 00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,600 Speaker 2: So, like my favorite win total bet was Tampa Bay 904 00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,879 Speaker 2: over six and a half plus plus money coming into 905 00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,239 Speaker 2: the weekend because and I give credit to my my 906 00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,359 Speaker 2: partner who talked about this, he goes, look, dude, last 907 00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,480 Speaker 2: year they had the second highest win total coming into 908 00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:44,799 Speaker 2: the season. 909 00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:45,279 Speaker 3: Now, they had. 910 00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,319 Speaker 2: Brady, but the roster was legit, the defense is legit, 911 00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,360 Speaker 2: the weapons are legit, and so they lose Gronk and 912 00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,680 Speaker 2: they lose Brady. Now not Pete Brady, Brady's last NFL season, 913 00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,000 Speaker 2: but that was a mass unit with offensive line injuries. 914 00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,840 Speaker 2: They had all these issues blocked and so everyone comes 915 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,799 Speaker 2: back and healthy, and they're over under for win total 916 00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,799 Speaker 2: is gonna drop like five wins. He's like no, Like 917 00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,960 Speaker 2: Mayfield was decent with the Rams. I think McVeigh sort 918 00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,480 Speaker 2: of hit the hard reset with him and he and 919 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:16,439 Speaker 2: I like, look, I thought either of the quarterbacks would 920 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,359 Speaker 2: be fine for the Bucks. I didn't think Mayfield would 921 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,680 Speaker 2: play this well. But if you look at it, like 922 00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:26,080 Speaker 2: that defense, that defensive front is legit. The secondary has playmakers. 923 00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 2: Those receivers are studs. He's developed aughten with the title, 924 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 2: and like they're I'm not saying they're winning the super Bowl, 925 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,840 Speaker 2: but they're like a risk. They're not the Texans in 926 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,840 Speaker 2: my ass. Now the Texants have a much better quarterback. 927 00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,080 Speaker 2: But Mayfield and this team and like that defense is 928 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,600 Speaker 2: pretty solid, like Detroit, Detroit's best two and a half 929 00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,880 Speaker 2: quarters of every game is super Bowl worthy. The problem 930 00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,719 Speaker 2: is their quarter and change, like they just kind of 931 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,080 Speaker 2: hit a wall sometimes. Like I understand we made such 932 00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,760 Speaker 2: a big to do about the Lions with the checking 933 00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,640 Speaker 2: in who's eligible and that whole game against the Cowboys 934 00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,840 Speaker 2: on that Saturday night, Let's not forget Detroit got the 935 00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:05,040 Speaker 2: ball down four and GoF through an interception right away, 936 00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:06,600 Speaker 2: and then they gave up a field goal to make 937 00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,160 Speaker 2: it a seven point margin, and then they got the 938 00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:11,600 Speaker 2: ball back and then drove them. But GoF will make mistakes. 939 00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:13,920 Speaker 2: He's more likely to make him in cold weather on 940 00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:15,880 Speaker 2: the road. I get it it's at home, but I 941 00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,600 Speaker 2: worry that Detroit's feeling themselves a little too much and 942 00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,000 Speaker 2: celebrating them too much. I like the dog with the points. 943 00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,799 Speaker 2: I'm not sure they'll win, okay, but if I had 944 00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,319 Speaker 2: to pick a team, that would ruin that partly. But 945 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,839 Speaker 2: you if you bet in game and you hit those 946 00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,520 Speaker 2: first two legs, you have some wiggle room. 947 00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's not all binary. 948 00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,120 Speaker 2: You can play a thirty year bet before game plus 949 00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:34,880 Speaker 2: six and a half and then create a middle and 950 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,319 Speaker 2: like do some stuff like that where you manage a 951 00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:41,200 Speaker 2: portfolio if you like those first two legs that much more. 952 00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,640 Speaker 1: So based on you kind of sort of thinking the 953 00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,680 Speaker 1: Packers could pull the upset or keep it close and 954 00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,560 Speaker 1: thinking the Bucks are going to be live plus six 955 00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,560 Speaker 1: and a half, do you think plus one thousand Green 956 00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,120 Speaker 1: Bay to win the NFC is smart? And then Tampa 957 00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,959 Speaker 1: plus ten forty because frankly, if the Packers win again, 958 00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,520 Speaker 1: it's in for it, and they got to go to Detroit. 959 00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,520 Speaker 1: I don't what's the line there Detroit? Like minus two 960 00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:06,440 Speaker 1: and a half. I mean the Rebate spanked them the 961 00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:08,600 Speaker 1: last time, and then if Tampa was able to pull 962 00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,880 Speaker 1: it off and the Niners stumble, Tampa already beat the Packers. 963 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 1: This was like a month ago. So do you think 964 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,640 Speaker 1: it's worth throwing a couple some pizza money on either 965 00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,080 Speaker 1: of those teams to shock the world of the NFC. 966 00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,960 Speaker 2: So it's a great idea because the what you what 967 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,000 Speaker 2: you do last will shape so much of the next 968 00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,000 Speaker 2: week's point spread in money line. So right now they're 969 00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,400 Speaker 2: what like plus three seventy five is probably the best number? 970 00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 2: Who the Packers money line on Sunday? 971 00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:32,200 Speaker 3: John Saturday? 972 00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:33,760 Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, plus the money line. 973 00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,360 Speaker 2: So you're asking if ten to one makes sense? So 974 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,239 Speaker 2: it's basically and I'm not good at this, I need 975 00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,200 Speaker 2: to like literally write it down, but you're basically asking me, 976 00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,160 Speaker 2: is like, would they be better less than two to 977 00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,759 Speaker 2: one odds at Detroit? But they but they conceivably could 978 00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,479 Speaker 2: face Tampa, right, Like, that's what you're saying. 979 00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,680 Speaker 3: So I would say, who's. 980 00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,600 Speaker 1: The seventh seed? Uh? The Packers are, so Tampa could 981 00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:55,120 Speaker 1: host the NFC title, right. 982 00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,280 Speaker 2: Right, obviously that would be better than you know, in theory, 983 00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,319 Speaker 2: Tampa's obviously you'd rather play at Tampa than at Detroit Bay. 984 00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:01,200 Speaker 1: And yeah, yeah, but. 985 00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,480 Speaker 2: Green Bay's better than you know obviously had already won 986 00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,439 Speaker 2: at Detroit on thanks getting I think ten to one's 987 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,279 Speaker 2: probably a good bet then, and you can probably find 988 00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,120 Speaker 2: better than ten to one right at various places. 989 00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:10,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I. 990 00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:13,880 Speaker 3: Don't think it's that terrible. 991 00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,280 Speaker 2: I think the Packers like sort of fit the mold, 992 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:21,000 Speaker 2: like I heard someone this morning, because the Niners' futures 993 00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:25,000 Speaker 2: got lowered because Dallas lost, right, so that they were 994 00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,200 Speaker 2: plus two fifteen to win it all and now they're. 995 00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,040 Speaker 3: Of the NFC. Yeah, so the NFC they got. 996 00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,640 Speaker 2: But some would argue like the Packers sort of wildcard nature, 997 00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,840 Speaker 2: like the variants of them, Yeah, actually gives the Niners 998 00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:39,600 Speaker 2: a little bit more doubt. Like I think that's a 999 00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:40,880 Speaker 2: fair argument. 1000 00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,839 Speaker 1: You know, you're right, I could see Packers shocking them, 1001 00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:45,640 Speaker 1: but I can also see and I think it's more 1002 00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:50,200 Speaker 1: likely thirty eight seventeen forty nine ers like we're just 1003 00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,920 Speaker 1: forgetting green Bay got shredded by Bryce Friggin young within 1004 00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,400 Speaker 1: the last few weeks. Like I think Doug, the recency 1005 00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:58,160 Speaker 1: bias this weekend is going to get a lot of 1006 00:45:58,160 --> 00:45:59,120 Speaker 1: people who like the Dogs. 1007 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:00,719 Speaker 3: That's just me. Of course, I could be right. 1008 00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,719 Speaker 2: That happens a lot this round. That's why I like 1009 00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:04,560 Speaker 2: the one Seeds a little bit. I'll also say this, 1010 00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,719 Speaker 2: I believe this is Green Bay's fourth road game in 1011 00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:07,400 Speaker 2: five weeks. 1012 00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,080 Speaker 1: Yes, yep, yep, yep, yep. I definitely agree. And they 1013 00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:11,680 Speaker 1: had the early buy I think it was like week 1014 00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,879 Speaker 1: five or six, so that team, I know they got 1015 00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:15,960 Speaker 1: a lot of young dudes, but they are banged up, like. 1016 00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,520 Speaker 2: But they've been playing like a draining schedule, like you 1017 00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 2: felt that in that Bears game week eighteen, right, like 1018 00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:24,040 Speaker 2: it was just like and then they're like going Before 1019 00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,440 Speaker 2: that when they lost at the Giants on that Monday night, 1020 00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:30,120 Speaker 2: there was mental mistakes, muffed punt, I think Love got stripped, and. 1021 00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,319 Speaker 1: You could argue that dan Quinn thought he had the 1022 00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,560 Speaker 1: Seattle job in the bag, and I know he would 1023 00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:37,640 Speaker 1: never admit this, and you can push back, but like 1024 00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:39,440 Speaker 1: my guess is the week of the game, Oh, we're 1025 00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:41,759 Speaker 1: touchdown favorites, so come on, we got these guys let 1026 00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,320 Speaker 1: me start building my staff late at night and reaching 1027 00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:45,680 Speaker 1: out to guys who might want to coach with me, 1028 00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:47,520 Speaker 1: and Seattle like, you know he's doing that. That's like 1029 00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:50,319 Speaker 1: what any normal human would do. So you're probably not 1030 00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,640 Speaker 1: as locked in on this game as as Kyle Shanahan, 1031 00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,680 Speaker 1: who said we started prepping it what the second quarter 1032 00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,480 Speaker 1: or something like that. I don't know. 1033 00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,279 Speaker 2: I also don't think the Cowboys are that good too. 1034 00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,480 Speaker 2: That's the other thing. I think they're overrated. I mean, 1035 00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,279 Speaker 2: I only the defense was that good. Bland was very 1036 00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:06,200 Speaker 2: opportunistic with the pick sixes, but like this was not 1037 00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,280 Speaker 2: like a wagon of the team. I mean, they stumbled 1038 00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,319 Speaker 2: into the division championship because the Eagles bought so much 1039 00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:12,920 Speaker 2: the second half of the season, and I think the 1040 00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,320 Speaker 2: offense can hum but some of these home roads splits 1041 00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:17,400 Speaker 2: and all this was inflated by some of their opponents. 1042 00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,600 Speaker 2: Like this team was terrible at Buffalo, played pretty well 1043 00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,080 Speaker 2: at Miami. But Miami's an overrated team too. They're a 1044 00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,799 Speaker 2: bunch of woosies as well, and they showed it last 1045 00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,960 Speaker 2: weekend against the Chiefs in cold weather. Like these teams 1046 00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,719 Speaker 2: did not belong in the conversation to begin with, like, 1047 00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:34,839 Speaker 2: did you, like maybe week thirteen, did you just look 1048 00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:36,880 Speaker 2: at the futures and be like, only like four or 1049 00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:38,240 Speaker 2: five teams could win this thing anyway? 1050 00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:41,000 Speaker 1: Well that the weird part is Dallas had been humming 1051 00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,080 Speaker 1: until that Seattle game. They got a little exposed, like 1052 00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:45,520 Speaker 1: Gino Smith is torching you. I know it's a Thursday night, 1053 00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,480 Speaker 1: but come on, I thought they were one of the 1054 00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,680 Speaker 1: five they could win. I lost some futures on Dallas. 1055 00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:51,480 Speaker 1: I mean I've lost futures on several teams that have 1056 00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:52,280 Speaker 1: been bounced now. 1057 00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:54,560 Speaker 3: Right, it's fair. I thought Dallas was lot. 1058 00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:57,680 Speaker 2: I thought Dallas's best, like stars like things would definitely 1059 00:47:57,719 --> 00:47:58,399 Speaker 2: have to break their way. 1060 00:47:58,440 --> 00:47:59,160 Speaker 3: But I thought I could. 1061 00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,719 Speaker 2: I could have them coming out of the NFC for sure, 1062 00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,399 Speaker 2: Like I think their best is is really good. It's 1063 00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,920 Speaker 2: just they weren't consistent enough. And that's my concern with Detroit. 1064 00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,920 Speaker 2: Like Detroit's best can win it all. Like they're probably 1065 00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:11,920 Speaker 2: like the cusp of like who can win and who 1066 00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:16,280 Speaker 2: can right, like they could if things break right. Obviously, 1067 00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,399 Speaker 2: if like the Niners, loss would be the biggest gift 1068 00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:19,000 Speaker 2: ever for them. 1069 00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,200 Speaker 3: But like they they could win. 1070 00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,400 Speaker 2: But I just think at some point you need a 1071 00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,160 Speaker 2: team that can play four solid quarters, so I like 1072 00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,359 Speaker 2: in the AFC obviously the Ravens, and then I think 1073 00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,759 Speaker 2: it's either I mean Mahomes or Allan could obviously win 1074 00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,399 Speaker 2: it all just by themselves, but that team has been 1075 00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,840 Speaker 2: so shaky, like they you know, the operative phrases. They 1076 00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:40,680 Speaker 2: play with their food, like no one plays with their 1077 00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:42,600 Speaker 2: food more than the Bills and the Chiefs this year, 1078 00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,360 Speaker 2: and I feel like that's gonna hurt them at some 1079 00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:47,520 Speaker 2: point along the way. 1080 00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,600 Speaker 1: Maybe both wrap up very random? Have you bet any? 1081 00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,640 Speaker 1: Are there any out there college football futures? I know 1082 00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:58,960 Speaker 1: they're like posted online, but in a casino. Yeah, because 1083 00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:01,759 Speaker 1: I'm going to be in Vegas at least for a 1084 00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:05,280 Speaker 1: little bit during super Bowl Week, maybe just a few hours. 1085 00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,359 Speaker 1: But I definitely want to lay it with Ohio State. 1086 00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:10,319 Speaker 1: I have a gut feeling they are. Assuming Harball leaves 1087 00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:12,760 Speaker 1: right and then he's like fifteen twenty guys to the pros. 1088 00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,960 Speaker 1: I think Ohio State is probably the team for next year. 1089 00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:17,359 Speaker 3: Are you comfortable with Ryan Day? 1090 00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:18,359 Speaker 1: I am. 1091 00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:21,359 Speaker 3: I'm okay with him. I'm okay with him. I don't 1092 00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:22,960 Speaker 3: think he's good over I mean, I think he knows 1093 00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:23,560 Speaker 3: what he's doing. 1094 00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:25,239 Speaker 1: Obviously, But have you been any for next year or 1095 00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:25,640 Speaker 1: too early? 1096 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,160 Speaker 2: No, I was thinking about loading up on Alabama under 1097 00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:32,480 Speaker 2: nine and a half actually, so Fandle threw that up. Yeah. 1098 00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,080 Speaker 2: I mean, look, they got Georgia at home. Their schedule 1099 00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,480 Speaker 2: is brutal, I mean really brutal. They're at Oklahoma the 1100 00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:41,160 Speaker 2: week before the Iron Bowl every year. It's like, you know, 1101 00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:45,560 Speaker 2: it's like a random cupcake. They're playing Oklahoma. 1102 00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:46,080 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1103 00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,160 Speaker 2: Now in the early season, the non commerce they're also 1104 00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:52,040 Speaker 2: at Wisconsin, which they always play give themselves a challenge. 1105 00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,319 Speaker 2: Sometimes they have a neutral site game. Over the years, 1106 00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,600 Speaker 2: they've played like Louisville, Michigan. 1107 00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,160 Speaker 1: US most Beef Tech you know. 1108 00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:01,520 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, exactly, Citadel or whatever. Right, So there's some 1109 00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,120 Speaker 2: stuff in it. Just the middle pack of the SEC 1110 00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:06,680 Speaker 2: is better as well. I mean, you know, Missouri obviously 1111 00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,920 Speaker 2: the coach of the year. They're at LSU and at Tennessee. 1112 00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,040 Speaker 2: And if that quarterback with the balls is that good. 1113 00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,120 Speaker 2: So there's a lot to like with a lot of 1114 00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,480 Speaker 2: other teams. Although I like the Boar and everything, but 1115 00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:18,920 Speaker 2: they're losing so much in the portal. I think George 1116 00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:20,680 Speaker 2: is going to be an absolute animal next year. But 1117 00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:23,040 Speaker 2: I can't fault you for Ohio State, especially with the 1118 00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:25,439 Speaker 2: Big Ten sort of the middle of the Big Ten. 1119 00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,160 Speaker 2: Usually the previous few years it was pretty good, right, 1120 00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,760 Speaker 2: this year was terrible. I mean just the whole West 1121 00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:33,480 Speaker 2: was down, and just across the board. Iowa was a 1122 00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,400 Speaker 2: fun team to talk about in terms of betting content, 1123 00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:38,760 Speaker 2: but they didn't belong on the field with like real teams. 1124 00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,919 Speaker 2: So I couldn't fault you it that like Ohio State, 1125 00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:43,759 Speaker 2: should you know be in the playoff? Well, they'll be 1126 00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,520 Speaker 2: in the this year's this new version of the playoff 1127 00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,520 Speaker 2: for sure, but I can see that for sure. 1128 00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:50,719 Speaker 1: All right, Doug Kazarian, what's the website, Doug, and you 1129 00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:52,880 Speaker 1: know you do on podcast? I'm sure you know the 1130 00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:54,640 Speaker 1: YouTube hit them, will hit them with everything? 1131 00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:55,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll hit you with everything. 1132 00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,440 Speaker 2: So onlyplayers dot Com is the venture so it has 1133 00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,360 Speaker 2: all of our stuff on the site. So it's just 1134 00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:03,680 Speaker 2: like a betting home base, like a betting page basically articles, videos, 1135 00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,200 Speaker 2: and our YouTube channel is embedded in there. But it's 1136 00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,759 Speaker 2: also on YouTube obviously. It's wager Watch is the name 1137 00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:11,560 Speaker 2: of the show at wager watch TV as the handle, 1138 00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:13,880 Speaker 2: and we're gonna have much more content coming up. Like 1139 00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,759 Speaker 2: I said, our app's gonna be reopen. We had it 1140 00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,239 Speaker 2: and then we took it down to do some edits 1141 00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:19,920 Speaker 2: and then we're gonna be relaunching it pretty soon. 1142 00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,400 Speaker 1: Nice congratsman, and we'll talk. 1143 00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:23,960 Speaker 2: About It's all free. That's the other thing that's it's free. 1144 00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,759 Speaker 2: So it's like a betting site with picks and all 1145 00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:28,880 Speaker 2: that stuff, but it's really just taking my cell phone 1146 00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:32,080 Speaker 2: and putting it on like TV and the digital platform.