1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast Better than Most, Better 2 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: than Most, Better than Most. 3 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 2: Welcome in to the Action Network podcast. Great to be 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 2: talking to you the week of the US Open. 5 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 3: Yes, the US Open. 6 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: Heading to the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, first time 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 2: the country club is hosting the US Open since. 8 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: Nineteen eighty eight. Here we go. 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 2: Brendan Glasheen your host today, joined by two of the 10 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: very best that follow the PGA, that follow golf from 11 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 2: a betting perspective. They are both co hosts of the 12 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: Better Golf podcast. Spencer Agyar He's at Teoff Sports on Twitter. 13 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: Nick Brettwish Sticks Picks joining us as well. This same 14 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 2: duo was with us for the Masters and they were fan. 15 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 2: You can catch Spencer and Nick on our Links. 16 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 3: And Locks podcast from the Action Network. 17 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 2: So good to have both of you. Just want to 18 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: start with some general thoughts and Spencer will go to 19 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 2: you first. When you're looking to target a golfer an 20 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 2: outright winner, top forty, top twenty, what are some factors 21 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: for you when you look at the course. 22 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: Weather looks like it's going to check out. 23 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 2: Okay, might be some inclement weather on Friday in Boston, 24 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: but for the most part, when you look at all factors, 25 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: what are some things here that jump out to you? 26 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 2: It also approach, you know, putting, how they do on 27 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:38,199 Speaker 2: the greens, driving the ball. 28 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 3: What are some things that come to mind here as 29 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 3: you prep for the US Open. 30 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, so let's talk about the course a little bit. 31 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 4: It measures in at and sixty four yards part seventy 32 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 4: venue that falls somewhere between sadistic and overly complicated on 33 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 4: the scale. But the landscape of Brookline is masterfully pieced together, 34 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 4: accentuating the course features and molding it into one diabolical examination. 35 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 4: And there are seventy foot trees that steiny second shots 36 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 4: if you miss to the wrong angle. Strategically place bunkers 37 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 4: in thick, rough and sinister green complexes that not only 38 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 4: rank as some of the smallest you will see all year, 39 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 4: but also the trickiest for a few reasons. For starters, 40 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 4: the two tier layout can create nightmarish speed on your putts, 41 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 4: potentially causing balls to funnel off these false fronts that 42 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 4: slope from back to front. But even more importantly than that, 43 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 4: it will be an extension of the iron play, since 44 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 4: the green and regulation percentage will be significantly reduced. I 45 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 4: have always found it challenging to create a US Open 46 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 4: model that is vastly different from other users, since some 47 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 4: semblance of the same statistics always come into play. We 48 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 4: know that the players who ten hit the ball the longest, 49 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 4: in the straightest for the weeks are the ones that 50 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 4: are at a massive advantage. But it doesn't mean that 51 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 4: we still can't get unique in our approach. To talk 52 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 4: a little bit about the weather. You know, I'm not 53 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 4: a person that overly looks into weather stats. I think 54 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 4: that things can change very frequently. When you know, you 55 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 4: look one second, there's twenty five mile power wins, You 56 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 4: look the next day, and then all all of a sudden, 57 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 4: like what was forecasted is no longer there. So I 58 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 4: like to just use my model, try to find an 59 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 4: advantage there, and you know, go about it in that fashion. 60 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 2: Nick, you get the sense getting set here for the 61 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 2: US Open again. We'll get to best bets here momentarily, 62 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 2: just want to set the stage here for how Nick 63 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: and Spencer go about handicapping and examining the landscape. It 64 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: has been a while since the country Club has hosted 65 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: like we talked about, but you get the sense placement 66 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: over power will be the focus here with this course 67 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: because his Spencer laid out if you miss, you might 68 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 2: miss badly and hit Tom Brady's old house when he 69 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 2: resided in New England. But short game, approach game, I 70 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: think those two factors might be tested to the max here. 71 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: Is that fair? 72 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 5: Yeah? 73 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: Certainly? 74 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 5: I think for me it's it's gonna be short game, 75 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 5: it's going to be ball striking, and certainly people that 76 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 5: are deadly accurate off the tee because we all know 77 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 5: how high the rough is going to be at the 78 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 5: US Open, in addition to the fescue that is shortly 79 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 5: I think knee high right outside the rough. 80 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 2: There kind of dive in now to best bets, and 81 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 2: the great thing with Spencer and Nick here when they 82 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 2: come on and join us, it's not just you know, 83 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 2: list of outright winners. They've got some different ways to 84 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 2: go about the betting board, just to kind of lay 85 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: it out though. The favorites coming in Rory McElroy, who 86 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: just won up in Canada plus one thousand leading on 87 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 2: the board, justin Thomas John Rahm, your common customers at 88 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 2: the top of the board for a big major in 89 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,679 Speaker 2: the golf circuit. So let's start with some top forties. 90 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: Spencer will start with you. Who are some guys to 91 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 2: jump out to you? 92 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 4: Yeah? So I like Aaron Wise's top forty at plus 93 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 4: the one hundred on DraftKings. He's minus one forty on FanDuel. 94 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 4: I didn't necessarily envision myself going into this weekend punching 95 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 4: a plus one hundred ticket on Wise to land inside 96 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 4: the top forty, but my model had about fifty points 97 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 4: of value on the wager at the price. From a 98 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 4: two year perspective, the long term total usually means more 99 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 4: to me since it allows the under the radar value 100 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 4: to be found when the current form isn't being overly 101 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 4: baked into the price, but it just so happens at 102 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 4: the product jumps even higher. On my model, we condensed 103 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 4: the data down to feature only the past twenty four rounds. 104 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 4: Wise ranks first in this entire field. When we combine 105 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: GIR percentage and long iron play, and the current form 106 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 4: is starting to pop like we saw during portions of 107 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 4: the twenty twenty one season, I grabbed Harold Varner to 108 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 4: the third top forty plus one fifteenth FanDuel minus won 109 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 4: thirty five DraftKings. Varner's lack of perceived win equity is 110 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 4: overly hurting him in most of these markets. And while 111 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 4: there are concerns because of the volatility and random implosions 112 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 4: that take place for him, the American places twenty first 113 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 4: overall in my model over the past two years, and 114 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 4: we see him jump to an impressive thirteenth when running 115 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 4: this from an upside perspective over the last twenty four rounds. 116 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 4: And then I'm gonna let Nick talk about this a 117 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 4: little bit also because I know he likes this play. 118 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: But Brian Harmon top forty plus one sixty five fan duel, 119 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 4: consider this more of a number grab than anything else. 120 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 4: Harmon has provided four top thirty eight finishes at the 121 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 4: US Open during his last four attempts, and a lot 122 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 4: of those showings were coming at venues that where a 123 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 4: lack of distance should have probably been a large to Trent, 124 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 4: then you will experience that Brookline, the short game, rewaighted 125 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 4: proximity totals and driving accuracy numbers are all inside the 126 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 4: top forty in this field. And he's also played tough 127 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 4: courses historically well, which we see by him ranking thirty 128 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 4: first overall. 129 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, Nick, taking a look at the better golf pod Twitter, 130 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 2: you you demonstrated an urgency to get in on harm 131 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 2: and why. 132 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, well the price I actually moved so that plus 133 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 5: one sixty five is now down a plus one forty five. 134 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 5: So I know that when Spencer and I usually do 135 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 5: our podcast on Tuesday nights, we if we think something's 136 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 5: going to move, we want to get it out early. 137 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,559 Speaker 5: So that's what you know. Following us on Twitter's some 138 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:39,679 Speaker 5: good value. I think last time I beat the market 139 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 5: with Brian Harmon by thirty points, he shot like a 140 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 5: ninety to round one at the Charles Swab, but then 141 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 5: tore it up on Friday, but did miss a cut 142 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 5: and did miss that bet. But yeah, Harmon is is 143 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 5: probably one of my favorite plays if it was still 144 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 5: the plus one sixty five number. Like Spencer said, it's 145 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 5: one hundred percent of number grab My model's got impressed 146 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 5: at plus one thirty, so about thirty five points of 147 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 5: value there. But he's just a deadly accurate fairway finder 148 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 5: off the tee. His long iron play is very good, 149 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 5: and like Spencer said, he's not long off the tea 150 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 5: by any means, but he does handle his handle himself 151 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 5: very well on these long courses. He's got excellent US 152 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 5: Open history, and he is in really good for him 153 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 5: outside of the Charles Schwab round one. 154 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: There four of. 155 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: His last five appearances on the tour, you take out 156 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 2: the cut at Charles Schwab, he has finished top forty 157 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:28,239 Speaker 2: in that stretch. That's actually you know in Spencer will 158 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 2: go to you and then Nick can weigh in on 159 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 2: this as well before we continue, because I know Nick 160 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 2: has other top forty plays. But I'm sure that this 161 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 2: seems obvious, but this is important to highlight. Course history 162 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 2: is important. How certain players fit the mold of the 163 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:46,679 Speaker 2: course certainly important. But how much are you using recent 164 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 2: history on this year in terms of how players are 165 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 2: playing heading into this event, Because now we have enough 166 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 2: of a sample size where enough has happened. I would 167 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 2: think you'd want to be interested in golfers that are 168 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 2: playing at a high level right now too. 169 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 4: Yeah. I run my model through a two year standpoint, 170 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 4: so that's going to take twenty twenty one stats and 171 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two stats. Not to give away the entire 172 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 4: you know, piece of the pie that I put together 173 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 4: to make it work with it, but as of right now, 174 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 4: it is going to be more of the twenty twenty 175 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 4: two stats than the twenty twenty one stats that come 176 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 4: into play, you know. And another thing that I do 177 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 4: too is I do have a weighted course history metric 178 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 4: that I run. I have a weighted current form metric 179 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 4: that I run. Now, obviously we haven't been on this 180 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 4: specific course in a long time, but as far as 181 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 4: the recent form goes, that's thirty percent of my weight 182 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 4: this week. I do have ten percent on US Open 183 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 4: venues over the last five years, and then sixty percent 184 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 4: of my total came from a statistical analysis portion, which 185 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 4: is just all the stats that I use to try 186 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:47,559 Speaker 4: to find an advantage. 187 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: Nick, how about you in terms of recent form, because 188 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 2: that would definitely relate to your harm and like your 189 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:54,559 Speaker 2: harmy graphic. 190 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:56,719 Speaker 5: For the most part, for me, my model doesn't run 191 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 5: anything longer than one hundred and twenty days, so I 192 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 5: kind of weight mysel against Spencer's. I don't like to 193 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 5: look at his model until mine is done, just because 194 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 5: I don't want to be influenced by the genius that 195 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 5: Spencer is. But yeah, I'm more of a recent form 196 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 5: guy as opposed to you know, there's a lot of 197 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 5: course history nuts out there and stuff like that, but 198 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 5: a guy like brooks Kopka who hasn't really threatened the 199 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 5: I guess he was really good at the Waste Management Open. 200 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 5: But other than that, he's not the guy that we're 201 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 5: used to seeing. But he always shows up in majors. 202 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 5: I think he's a walking top five at the US Open. 203 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 5: But for for me, I haven't seen that elite level 204 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 5: brooks Kepka in a long time. In the recent data 205 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 5: within one hundred and twenty days really doesn't support playing 206 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 5: him either, at especially at his shorter prices. But to me, 207 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 5: it's it's all about recent form. 208 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 2: Nick, give us some of your other top forty plays 209 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 2: for the US Open. 210 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 5: All right, my favorite one in It hurts my stomach 211 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 5: just to eat the juice on a top forty market. 212 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 5: But Daniel Berger top forty is minus one point fifteen 213 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 5: on FanDuel. I believe that price is still live there. 214 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 5: My price is down at minus one seventy five. I 215 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 5: believe the market even had a one ninety five there. 216 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 5: I believe andreings, but my model absolutely loves the course. 217 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 5: Hit fit here for Daniel Berger, who's usually just deadly 218 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 5: accurate off the tee. Excellent short game, excellent bunker play 219 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 5: if he does mess up those approach shots, and his 220 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 5: long iron ball striking is elite. So Daniel Berger is 221 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 5: probably my favorite play overall in the DFS and betting 222 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 5: market as a whole. 223 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: Okay, I think we're good. Top forties. You guys got 224 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 2: through those. I'm pretty sure at this stage very good. 225 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: All right. 226 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 2: So Spencer, you've got a unique angle before we get 227 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 2: to some outright picks. 228 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 3: But you've got a head to head that you like 229 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 3: as well. 230 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 4: Yes, So before I get into that, you know, I 231 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 4: always run my model to figure out the most mispriced 232 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 4: golfers on the slate. For me, it's more important that 233 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 4: I pinpoint fade candidates that I want to take on 234 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 4: as opposed to golfers that I want to back. You 235 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 4: can always find a way to get exposure in the 236 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 4: outright or placement markets. The force comes to worse on 237 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 4: a golfer that might be priced against other studs, But 238 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: in my opinion, the biggest advantage comes from finding overvalued 239 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 4: golfers that have inflated price tags. Provide a little more 240 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 4: context there. Billy Horschell kh Lee, and Abraham Answer are 241 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 4: the top three golfers on my model when it comes 242 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 4: to being inflated in price. There are options you can 243 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 4: consider at the legal books like Luke List minus one 244 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 4: ten Overlee Horschell has a few noteworthy opponents himself. But 245 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go down to the thirteenth most overpriced golfer 246 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 4: on the slate and Davis Riley as my favorite play 247 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 4: on the board, and take him on with the man 248 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 4: of the week for me, Aaron Wise at minus one five. 249 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 4: That number opened at plus one oh five and has 250 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 4: already moved ten cents, so I would probably act quickly 251 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 4: since I think we could see this climb by another 252 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 4: ten or twenty points before Thursday. 253 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:38,959 Speaker 3: But while Riley looks great with. 254 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 4: His five consecutive top thirteen finishes, there will always be 255 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 4: issues with plays like this since the recent results are 256 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 4: being overly baked into the numbers. It doesn't mean he 257 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,239 Speaker 4: can't continue this trend since he has provided these results 258 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 4: at both difficult and easy courses. But betting sports is 259 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 4: always about finding the over corrections to the market. I 260 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,959 Speaker 4: just found it interesting that Riley seemed to receive all 261 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 4: the baked in totals here when Wise has been equally 262 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 4: as good over the past few months and that's before 263 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,959 Speaker 4: we even get to the long term stats that begin 264 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 4: to fully backwise as a golfer that should be closer 265 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 4: to minus one twenty five. 266 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 2: In this battle and Spencer, you're also in on a 267 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:16,199 Speaker 2: nationality prop. 268 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 4: I am, so you know this is going to be 269 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 4: an interesting way there. Anytime that you get these random props, 270 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 4: you can kind of find some advantages. So the one 271 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 4: I will give is Sea Wu Kim to be the 272 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 4: top South Korean golfer at plus three point thirty. This 273 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 4: is a four man contest. There's no arguing that Sung 274 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 4: Jim is the player to beat at minus one ten. 275 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 4: But my model is bearish on Juwhun Kim, a golfer 276 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 4: that ranks ninety first overall. For me. It's also much lower, 277 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 4: as I mentioned on kh Lee, my seventy fifth overall golfer. 278 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 4: So while we are going to need some luck for 279 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 4: Seawu to get across the finish line over Sung j 280 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 4: there's value to be had on the numbers since most 281 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 4: markets have Sea Wu as the third choice of the group. 282 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 4: I had this price properly at plus two hundred, so 283 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 4: I wouldn't be putting a large wager on it. But 284 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 4: the hope is that my model is right about kh 285 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 4: Lee and juhunk Kind missing the cut, providing us a 286 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 4: potential head to head battle at an inflated price. 287 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 2: Okay, and that transitions well to Nick because Seawoo Kim, 288 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 2: Nick Brent Wish is one of your outright picks. 289 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, so see, I think it's it's more of a 290 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 5: fan boy play for me. But like Spencer said, I mean, 291 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 5: I love that pick that he has pretty much getting, 292 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 5: you know, three and a half to one on Seawou 293 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 5: heads up against Sunjay, assuming that the other two do 294 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 5: miss the cut. But Seawu Kim is one hundred and 295 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 5: fifty to one on Draftkingson. He is overall number thirteen 296 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 5: in my model in terms of overall course fit. I 297 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,680 Speaker 5: am a fanboy of Seawoo Kim. I think I bet 298 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,439 Speaker 5: him any chance I get. When I see a plus 299 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 5: number in the top forty markets, I did punch the 300 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 5: ticket there on FanDuel plus one fifty. But anytime that 301 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 5: my model waits a very strong you know, dependency on 302 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 5: accuracy off the tee and very strong around the green play, 303 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 5: Seawoo Kim is always on a pot for me. He's 304 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 5: very good. The only I guess the only downside for 305 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 5: me I had him priced at plus one or one ten, 306 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 5: so I do have forty points of value on the 307 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,680 Speaker 5: outright ticket there. I would like Seawou a little bit morehead. 308 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 5: There have been more than two par fives on this 309 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 5: venue that seems to be where Seawu really does his damage. 310 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 5: But with the accuracy off the t, this is just 311 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 5: a price grab for a player that I personally love 312 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 5: all the time. 313 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 2: In terms of your other outright winners, you've got two 314 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 2: names at the top of the board, the sixth favorite, 315 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: Patrick Can't Lay and then going down just a little 316 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 2: bit more, Colin morit Kawa. Why didn't you make a 317 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 2: case why each of those guys are to your targeting? 318 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 5: So outside of Rory, my model pretty much thinks all 319 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 5: these top you know, twelve golfers in the market are 320 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 5: pretty much a toss up. So for Colin, I know 321 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 5: he finished fourth last year. I believe it was a 322 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 5: tie with Brooks. I think he's just due to win 323 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 5: a US Open soon. He really hasn't done a whole 324 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 5: lot this year, but he is deadly, deadly, deadly accurate 325 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 5: off the T. One of the best long iron ball 326 00:14:56,160 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 5: strikers in this field. He certainly has his putting issues, 327 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 5: but that's really not going to be a case here 328 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 5: with I believe the smallest or second smallest Greens on tour. 329 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 5: He is one of the best par four scoring players 330 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 5: in my model as well, and can't way really just 331 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 5: the exact same thing. A little more positive in the 332 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 5: bogie avoidance than Calm or Kyw, but excellent power four 333 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 5: scoring and again very accurate off the tea and great 334 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 5: around the green. So to me, it was just getting 335 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 5: more inflated prices for guys that my model think are 336 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 5: equal to you know, not necessarily a SCOUTI Scheffler, but 337 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 5: guys just ripe alme. 338 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: And now on too Sleeper. 339 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 340 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 2: of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there. 341 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 2: I use it for mine. It's a game changing product 342 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 2: unlike anything else in the industry, and now you could 343 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 2: win on Sleeper by playing their new over under game. 344 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: It's super simple. 345 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 3: First, in any sport, choose two or more players that 346 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 3: you like and pick they're over or. 347 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 2: Under for example number of points in basketball or hits 348 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 2: in baseball. Then choose the amount of money you want 349 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 2: to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you 350 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 2: can win anywhere from two to over twenty five times 351 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 2: the money you put in. The main reason I'm excited 352 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 2: about over Under on Sleeper is that it's the only 353 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 2: app where I can join my buddies contests and play together. 354 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: It's not a built in group chat where I can 355 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: see and copy my friend's picks with a tap of 356 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 2: a button. 357 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: It's insanely fun to write it out together. 358 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 2: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to 359 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 2: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends 360 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 2: and make some money on your mobile phone. Join our 361 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 2: listener group on Sleeper at sleeper dot com, slash Action 362 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 2: and Sleeper, we'll automatically match your first deposit up to 363 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 2: one hundred dollars. Again, go to Sleeper dot com slash 364 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 2: Action and you'll get a one hundred dollars match on 365 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 2: your first deposit. 366 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. See Sleepers terms of use for details. Okay, 367 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: back to the. 368 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: Show, Spencer, why don't you, you know, kind of take 369 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 2: us home here in terms of targeting outright winners. You 370 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 2: kind of hit on this briefly, but what exactly is 371 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 2: your general strat or what would you address to folks 372 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 2: that are getting involved in a major if they're just 373 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 2: someone who's casually getting involved in a major wants to 374 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 2: bet on it general strategy to picking an outright. 375 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think there's a general misconception about outrights, 376 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 4: and major championships only heighten that point I'm about to make. 377 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 4: I will give a player two to consider, since I 378 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 4: know these boards will fluctuate between now and Thursday. But 379 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,959 Speaker 4: more so than pouting a wager that has moved in value, 380 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 4: I would like to talk a little bit about the 381 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 4: advantage that you can get in the market in general. 382 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 4: So I always say that by the time the board 383 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 4: reopens on the Monday before the tournament, and this would 384 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 4: be for major championships, any of the value is gone. 385 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 4: Since most books will shade their whole percentage. That's an 386 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 4: answer for another show when we have more time. But 387 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 4: it's essential to be patient and let the books start 388 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 4: to favor you again. It will always be better if 389 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 4: you can lock up most of your outright card weeks 390 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 4: or even months before these majors take place. But assuming 391 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 4: that either isn't something you want to do or can't do, 392 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 4: for whatever reason. My biggest piece of advice for everyone 393 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 4: listening is to have patients during these weeks. There is 394 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 4: such a rush for most to lock up their cards 395 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 4: after the board retakes form on Monday that users missed 396 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 4: the battle from shops inflating their outright prices in certain 397 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 4: areas to secure the last few dollars. I do have 398 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 4: a ticket on max Homa that I like at sixty 399 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 4: six to one. There is a cat lay outright that 400 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,439 Speaker 4: I am on at thirty to one. I don't know 401 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 4: how much good that does anyone listening now since the 402 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 4: numbers have changed on those two. I still think there's 403 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 4: value to be had if you wait or shop around, 404 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 4: but the two all give On this show, which are 405 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 4: two plays that I have mentioned multiple times will be 406 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 4: I will start with Harold Varner at one hundred to one. 407 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 4: He gets a bad rap because of his inability to 408 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,959 Speaker 4: close out events on tour. Now I understand asking him 409 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,199 Speaker 4: to do it in a major seems far fetched, But 410 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 4: my model has Varner as a sixty six to one 411 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 4: golfer that is being priced at one hundred to one, 412 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 4: and then the second choice is Aaron Wise. I have 413 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 4: each of them as top thirteen targets in this field 414 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 4: when I run the event for upside over a shorter 415 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 4: term sample size, and I typically use and while it's 416 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 4: hard to imagine either winning a major at this points 417 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 4: of their career, we've seen them recently in fields that 418 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 4: are not much different than this at sub fifty to 419 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 4: one very quickly. I've used this example example multiple times 420 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 4: this week. But why isn't Varner aren't that much different 421 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 4: than Meto Pereira who was one t shot away on 422 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 4: eighteen from capturing the PGA Championship. And I know the 423 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 4: natural answer to that would be that he didn't win. 424 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 4: But we can look at a golfer like Gary Woodland 425 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 4: at the twenty nineteen US Open or Keegan Bradley at 426 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 4: the PGA Championship in twenty eleven and point to similar 427 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 4: golfers where it would have seemed out landish for them 428 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 4: to win until it happened. You know, those victories change 429 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 4: the trajectory towards their careers, and I don't think it's 430 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 4: inconceivable that we could see Wiser Varner accomplish a similar 431 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 4: outcome at a very generous price of one hundred to one. 432 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 2: Excellent love it both co hosts from the Better Golf Podcast. 433 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: You can catch Spencer and Nick on our Links. 434 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 3: And Locks podcast from the Action Network. 435 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 1: Jans anything else? You got to get off your chest 436 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: here before we go. This is great stuff. 437 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,719 Speaker 4: Thank you guys again for having us on. You can 438 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 4: find on Twitter at TIOF Sports. You can locate the 439 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 4: two of us together at Better Golf Pod. And I 440 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 4: just really hope that everyone listening will tune into our show. 441 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 4: Nick and I always try to attack the board in 442 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 4: a unique and mathematical fashion, and I think it provides 443 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 4: an entertaining podcast where we try to help everyone get 444 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 4: more tickets to the window. 445 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 1: You got anything, Nick? Oh, thanks for having us in. 446 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 5: Good luck everybody, And one last pick I believe would 447 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 5: be Headeki Matsuyama forty to one on FanDuel. I think 448 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 5: he's ex at my actual pick to click this week, 449 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:28,400 Speaker 5: and my winner if I had a one and done 450 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 5: pool is going to be Headeki Matsuyama as long as 451 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 5: he does not paint his three win again. 452 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 1: Okay. 453 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 2: Excellent, Great work from both of you, guys, Spencer and 454 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 2: Nick helping us out here on the Action Network. 455 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: Podcast for other golf US. 456 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 2: Open Action Network content look forward to the Links and 457 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 2: Locks podcast from the Action Network for Spencer Agyar, Nick Brtwish, 458 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 2: Brendan las Sheen. 459 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. 460 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 2: Best of luck everybody, and enjoy the golf. We'll talk 461 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 2: to you again very soon.