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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is the show where we'll take you around the

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Speaker 1: country every single week to ensure you're taking advantage of

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Speaker 1: the college football season from a sports betting perspective. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Seth Willcock, coming at you from the fringe

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Speaker 1: of penn State Country, and today I am joined by

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Speaker 1: our resident college football betting experts here at Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: soaking up the Texas Sun, Scott Bogman. Bogman, how are

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Speaker 1: you doing as Week zero of the college football season approaches.

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Speaker 2: I'm not soaking in any son, I'm being a vampire

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Speaker 2: sitting in front of my computer getting ready for this week,

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Speaker 2: and super excited that Week zero is kicking off here

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Speaker 2: and we actually get some games. You know, we're no

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Speaker 2: longer talking about it, We're about to be being about it.

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Speaker 2: So I'm really excited to get this season kicked off

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Speaker 2: and to start rolling.

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Speaker 1: I agree, there's just something special about this time of year, man,

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Speaker 1: at least up here in Pennsylvania again, a little bit

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Speaker 1: cooler right now as far as the weather goes, and

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Speaker 1: all across the country, about one hundred or so different

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Speaker 1: communities are going to be vibing out to college football.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know about you down in Texas, but

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Speaker 1: it feels like up here we go as the team goes.

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Speaker 1: Attitude is all about how your college football team is

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Speaker 1: doing up here in this part of the state. And

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Speaker 1: I'm sure down there as well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's Texas. You know. The high school stadium

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Speaker 2: that they're building down the street from me is probably

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Speaker 2: bigger than some FCS schools, right, So it's Texas is

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Speaker 2: king for football, and that's what the community is about.

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Speaker 2: Unfortunately for me, I'm a Longhorns fan and I live

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Speaker 2: in Aggie Country, so I live real close to College Station.

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Speaker 2: And the one time I got pulled over here, I

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Speaker 2: happen to be wearing a Longhorns hoodie, so I went ahead.

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Speaker 2: I saw wearing my black one instead of my burnt

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Speaker 2: orange one when I'm driving. But yeah, I'm excited for football.

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Speaker 2: We're ready here in Texas and let's get it rolling.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. This our early picks and line movement show. Four weeks. Here,

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Speaker 1: we'll tell you where the lines are heading and maybe

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Speaker 1: some early leans as well. Hopefully you can grab some

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Speaker 1: positive value as we approach the games here. Further in

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Speaker 1: the week, on the show today, we'll be breaking down

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Speaker 1: the week zero slate Florida State, Georgia Tech over in

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Speaker 1: Dublin there, Montana State at New Mexico, SMU at Nevada,

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Speaker 1: and Delaware State going down to Hawaii as well. And

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Speaker 1: before we jump in, I wanted to remind you if

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash contest, complete the form and either

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Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app, leave a review on Benning

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Speaker 1: CROs podcast, or subscribe to our social media channels at

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Speaker 1: NFL on Instagram. The more actions you complete, the more

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Speaker 1: entries you will receive. Will be announcing a winner right

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Speaker 1: here on the channel, so make sure you're subscribed, turn

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Speaker 1: on those gentifications so you can be alerted when new

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Speaker 1: episodes drop, and to claim your prize. All right, box,

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Speaker 1: let's go ahead and start here overseas, kicking off the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four college football season. Our acc rivals Florida

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Speaker 1: State and Georgia Tech in that aer Lingus Classic rece

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Speaker 1: Herbie Patten the Boys College game Day. They'll be live

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Speaker 1: from Dublin. I'm sure the Guinnesses will be flowing for

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Speaker 1: this one over there as well. Florida State currently ranked

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Speaker 1: tenth in the country following their undefeated regular season last

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Speaker 1: year and debatable playoffs snumb as well. They're favored by

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half here. However, they have lost a

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Speaker 1: ton of talent to the NFL over the offseason. Jared

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Speaker 1: Vers gone wide receiver, key On Coleman gone, Trey Benson

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Speaker 1: he's with the Cardinals now, and George Travis in the

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Speaker 1: league as well. They'll take on the Yellow Jackets here,

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Speaker 1: who are plus three point fifty on the money line,

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Speaker 1: have a lot of offensive experience coming back, led by

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Speaker 1: QB Haynes King he had thirty seven total touchdowns last

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Speaker 1: season and Jamal Haynes He's a one thousand yard rusher

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Speaker 1: from last season as well. Bogs, Are these lines correct

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Speaker 1: as they stand? And where do you expect them to

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Speaker 1: go here? As it approaches here on the weekend.

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Speaker 2: My initial thought when I saw this line was oh Man,

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Speaker 2: because you know, I remember seeing Northwestern upset Nebraska in Ireland,

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Speaker 2: and I kind of have that burned into my brain.

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Speaker 2: But then last year we saw Notre Dame go and

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Speaker 2: beat the doors off of Navy, right, so the travel

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Speaker 2: can be weird going all the way to Ireland. And

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Speaker 2: I'm a known for this season Florida State hater. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I talked about how I'm betting on their under for

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Speaker 2: their win total for this season. But when you look

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Speaker 2: at the discrepancy in talent, you know, and you look

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Speaker 2: at the replacements that this team has, I still think

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Speaker 2: Florida State wins. I think this line would be much

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Speaker 2: bigger if this game was played in the States, regardless

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Speaker 2: of where it was in Tallahassee, at Georgia Tech neutral site, whatever,

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Speaker 2: I think it would be much more of a Florida

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Speaker 2: State line. But this Georgia Tech, as you mentioned, Seth,

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Speaker 2: they are an experienced group, right, Haines King was great.

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Speaker 2: Haines was awesome. They have a lot of returning starters

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Speaker 2: on offense. So I think my favorite bet here is

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Speaker 2: the over right. And and I know, like Florida State's

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Speaker 2: the defenses much better than Georgia Tech's, but we're replacing

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Speaker 2: a lot you mentioned most of the guys. There were

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Speaker 2: ten players off this team drafted, just drafted, So that's

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Speaker 2: a lot of talent to lose. It's a lot to

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Speaker 2: ask a new group to gel together real quickly. So

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Speaker 2: you know, I understand this line, and the line is sinking.

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Speaker 2: I think now you can get it. I believe it

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Speaker 2: FanDuel for maybe ten and a half. I think everyone

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Speaker 2: is looking at this line, watching it go down and

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Speaker 2: down and down, and I think every time it goes down,

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Speaker 2: we're getting a little more value on the Florida State side.

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Speaker 2: So I'm if I want to bet the line on

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Speaker 2: this in the spread, I'm gonna wait because I think

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Speaker 2: what we're seeing from the market is watching this number

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Speaker 2: go down. But the total I think I'm taking as

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Speaker 2: soon as possible because I do like the over in

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Speaker 2: this game with both of these offenses, you know, Georgia

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Speaker 2: Tech bringing experience playing against a new group at Florida State,

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Speaker 2: and Florida State just being supremely more skilled in terms

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Speaker 2: of roster strength. Maybe they don'tut it all to time

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Speaker 2: together initially, but you know, one of the first things

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Speaker 2: I heard this offseason was about a Georgia Tech upset.

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Speaker 2: I've had that in my mind, I just don't think

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Speaker 2: they have the horses to do it here, So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna take Florida State. But I really like the over

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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 1: That total has grown substantially since opening Bogs. Do do

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Speaker 1: you imagine that will be right around that same fifty

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Speaker 1: five and a half number come Saturday? Or do you

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Speaker 1: think we do see some movement there?

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Speaker 2: Again, I think it's gonna creep. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 2: creep up closer to fifty seven. And these lines are

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Speaker 2: always going to grow in week zero, week one, because

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Speaker 2: we've had them available since June, right, So you're gonna

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Speaker 2: see these numbers shift one way or the other a

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Speaker 2: bunch for this week and next week. They'll shift less

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Speaker 2: significantly less obviously moving forward once we get into the season.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, there's been a lot of movement on this one.

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Speaker 1: Next up, we have the battle between Montana State and

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Speaker 1: New Mexico. The Bobcats finished third in the Big Sky

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Speaker 1: that's an FCS division last season. They're favored by nine

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Speaker 1: points heading down to Albuquerque here. Meanwhile, the Lobos finished

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Speaker 1: hied for last in the Mountain West a year ago.

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Speaker 1: They've kind of hit the reset button here a little bit,

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Speaker 1: including head coach Bronco Mendenhall is going to be leading

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Speaker 1: this staff moving forward. He had eleven years of head

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Speaker 1: coaching experience over at BYU and six in Virginia as well. Boggs,

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Speaker 1: where do you see this line going? And you have

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Speaker 1: an early lead here? Obviously, Montana State is going to

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Speaker 1: be the heavy favorite here over under, sitting right around

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Speaker 1: fifty three and a half right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, It's not every day you see an FCS team

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Speaker 2: favored against the SPS team. But Montana State ranks fourth

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Speaker 2: in the FCS preseason polls. They averaged the second most

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Speaker 2: points in the FCS last season. They were number one

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Speaker 2: in yards per play. So this is a very good offense,

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Speaker 2: a well oiled machine here going up against a team that, yes,

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Speaker 2: is a division higher, but is at the bottom of

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Speaker 2: the barrel of this division. You know, Bronco Mendenhall is

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Speaker 2: a good coach. He's you know, had some turn turnarounds.

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Speaker 2: He's experienced lifting a roster that is less than right.

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Speaker 2: So I do like that, But I just have no

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Speaker 2: faith in New Mexico in this game at all. I'm

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Speaker 2: leaning towards Montana State. That is the opposite right. This

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Speaker 2: one opened up real low at minus four and a

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Speaker 2: half and it has since expanded to eight eight and

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Speaker 2: a half nine. This is a line that if I

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Speaker 2: want to take Montana State, get a little juice on

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Speaker 2: this game to make it more interesting. I'm gonna do

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Speaker 2: it as soon as possible because I think that line

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Speaker 2: is going to open up.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, and let's keep it moving here, Bogs.

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Speaker 1: But first I want to remind everyone listening about the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros Pick Tracker. Want to track all your wagers

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Speaker 1: in one place, check out the Betting Pros Picktracker. It

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Speaker 1: synks up with your sportsbook totally which picks hit and

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Speaker 1: which picks miss. Plus, it gives you a live look

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Speaker 1: at what the betting public is doing, so you can

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Speaker 1: track in real time to determine which plays to make

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Speaker 1: and which plays to fade. Track your picks today with

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com, Slash Pick

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Speaker 1: Dash Tracking, or on the Betting Pro Sports betting app.

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Speaker 1: The primetime matchup of the week includes SMU at Nevada.

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Speaker 1: The Mustangs beat Too Lane to win the AAC Conference

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Speaker 1: championship last season. Now they're making this jump to the ACC.

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Speaker 1: They're favored by twenty seven and a half against Nevada.

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Speaker 1: More of kind of this Mountain West fodder here two

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Speaker 1: and ten last year overall scored just nineteen offensive touchdowns

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Speaker 1: on the season as a whole in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Head coach Jeff Chokeate now takes the reins here twenty

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Speaker 1: eight and twent twenty eight and twenty two as the

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Speaker 1: head coach at Montana State, spent some time down with

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Speaker 1: your Texas Longhorns recently as the co defensive coordinator and

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Speaker 1: some position coaches there. How do you feel about him

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Speaker 1: and his squad coming in here? Do you think Nevada

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Speaker 1: has any chance to potentially at least break up what

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Speaker 1: could be a heavily dominated SMU game.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, I hate this game. I like this game

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Speaker 2: much better at what it opened ap but I mean

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Speaker 2: it opened too low. It opened at twenty one and

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Speaker 2: a half right, and we saw the bets flood in

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Speaker 2: on the SMU side. It has since expanded six points.

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Speaker 2: I think we're starting to lose value on SMU. You know,

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Speaker 2: our system shows that is less than that our system

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Speaker 2: is on the under. I really don't like this game,

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Speaker 2: because it looks like a SMU demolition right. Jeff Choate

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Speaker 2: has worked a miracle before he turned around Montana State,

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Speaker 2: who he just talked about, but that took him four

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Speaker 2: seasons at the FCS level. So I don't think you're

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Speaker 2: going to go in game one and face an SMU

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Speaker 2: team that is realistically aiming for the tournament. This is

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Speaker 2: a top ten team on offense for sure. I would

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Speaker 2: say they're probably top twenty or thirty on defense as well.

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Speaker 2: That we turned ten of their top eleven tacklers from

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Speaker 2: last season, They're going to put a lot of pressure

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Speaker 2: on Nevada. I think they're gonna get out early. I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to destroy this Nevada offensive line. I mean,

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Speaker 2: there's just so much experience coming back on defense for SMU.

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Speaker 2: And I mean Elijah Roberts had ten sacks last season.

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Speaker 2: I think he's going to be eating Nevada's lunch. Preston

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Speaker 2: Stone is a very well regarded quarterback for SMU. Jalen

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Speaker 2: Knighton was all conferenced, so was their tight end r

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Speaker 2: Jam Maryland. The wide receiver room is incredibly talented. Like

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Speaker 2: I said, this is a top ten offense going against

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Speaker 2: a rebuilding defense, and you're gonna run all those plays

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Speaker 2: that you practice all offseason. If you're Smu, you know,

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Speaker 2: these are the plays that you've been running the entire offseason.

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Speaker 2: You're Chris bet them, and I bet you. Playing against

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Speaker 2: your defense in practice is much harder than playing against

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Speaker 2: Nevada's defense in the game. So I just I don't

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Speaker 2: see how Nevada stands a chance in this game. It

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Speaker 2: would have to be, you know, if they get out

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Speaker 2: early and Smu kind of pulls the rings back and

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Speaker 2: stuff like that, kind of staying away from this game.

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Speaker 2: But if you do want to bet it, I would

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Speaker 2: say get it as soon as possible, because this line

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Speaker 2: is just going to keep opening opening up. I expected

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Speaker 2: to be closer to thirty by the time we get

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Speaker 2: to kick off, and when we.

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Speaker 1: Have a spread this big, Bogs. Are you really relying

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Speaker 1: on past production returning here? Is that really the metric

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Speaker 1: you're kind of looking at, because obviously not a ton

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Speaker 1: of data to go off here, especially in week zero.

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Speaker 1: So is it really those returning players and that production

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Speaker 1: coming back that you're really leaning on here in your

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Speaker 1: projections and analysis.

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Speaker 2: It's not just that, but it's really the difference in

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Speaker 2: roster strength. I mean the talents on the field, Like

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Speaker 2: of course, you know coaches are going to make a difference,

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Speaker 2: which you know, interesting enough, in that FSU game we're playing,

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Speaker 2: or we were talking about, Mike Norvel may may not

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Speaker 2: let his foot up off the gas, right right. They

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Speaker 2: got they got hosed out of a playoff spot last year,

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Speaker 2: so it might be no mercy for anyone this year.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that SMU is a no mercy team,

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Speaker 2: so we'll see. But I don't expect this game to

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Speaker 2: be very fun for Nevada either way, even at home.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a tough start for

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Speaker 2: the Jeff chod era here.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's wrap up the week zero slate here

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Speaker 1: at the Island of Honolulu, Delaware State. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: traveling to Hawaii to face those Rainbow Warriors. Biggest spread

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Speaker 1: on the weekend here, Hawaii favored by a whopping thirty

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Speaker 1: eight points. Entering the third year of the Timmy Chang era.

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Speaker 1: This is the former Hawaii quarterback who has taken his

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Speaker 1: alma mater from three wins in his first season with

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Speaker 1: them to five last season, but still kind of faces

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Speaker 1: a little bit of an uphill climb in the Mountain

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Speaker 1: West here. Meanwhile, Delaware State, they're going to be traveling

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Speaker 1: ten hours at least, coming off a one to ten

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Speaker 1: record in the Mid Eastern Athletic Conference in the FCS.

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Speaker 1: This is a huge, freaking spread, absolutely ginormous. There's even

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Speaker 1: no money line available at most books on this game. Boggs.

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Speaker 1: You see this playing out, that this spread could potentially

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Speaker 1: even grow more as the game approaches. And do you

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Speaker 1: have an early lead here as well in the great

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Speaker 1: state of Hawaii.

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Speaker 2: How can you not take Hawaii in this game? Maybe

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Speaker 2: Delaware State? You know, this is just a tough draw.

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Speaker 2: I mean, great for the players they get to go

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Speaker 2: to Hawaii, right, so not bad. But you know, look,

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Speaker 2: Hawaii in the grand scheme of the FBS is not

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Speaker 2: a good team, right, They're I think they're in the

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Speaker 2: one twenties probably on both offense and defense. But five

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Speaker 2: win team last season. They have a decent amount returning

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Speaker 2: I believe according to my buddy Nick could see if

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Speaker 2: you winning edge, there's seventh in returning production at seventy

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Speaker 2: eight point two percent of their returning production comes back.

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Speaker 2: And what that is is continuity, and what you want

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Speaker 2: for Week one is continuity? Well, it's not just continuity

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Speaker 2: and being at home. Right. You have your playing Delaware State,

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Speaker 2: which is a bad FCS team, So the difference level

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Speaker 2: is already enormous here. Again, you know, practicing against your

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Speaker 2: starters is probably harder than playing against the Delaware State starters.

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Speaker 2: This is a game you used to springboard your team's

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Speaker 2: confidence as well. I don't know how we couldn't go

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Speaker 2: Hawaii in the over on this game if for betting

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Speaker 2: on it, you know, only four games, not a lot

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Speaker 2: to pick through. I'll get more into player props on Friday,

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Speaker 2: and you know, a couple of other different plays, But

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Speaker 2: this game, I just think this is Hawaii rolling.

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Speaker 1: You think that thirty eight point spread continues to grow

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Speaker 1: here as a week rounds out here as well, Bogs.

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Speaker 2: I think, I don't know if it gets much higher

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Speaker 2: than that, that's pretty It's pretty tough to get Hawaii

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Speaker 2: more points in this game. But I think if the

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Speaker 2: bets come in, you know, there's no way I'm betting

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Speaker 2: on Delaware State. I'll just say that, so, ok, you know,

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Speaker 2: whatever the spread is, I'm still not taking Delaware State.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do it.

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Speaker 1: All I have to say about Hawaii is get your

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Speaker 1: stuff together, because no tailgating this season down in Honolulu

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Speaker 1: for whatever reason until the final game home game on

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Speaker 1: their schedule, so don't really know what's going on down there.

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Speaker 1: We gotta get the tailgators and gotta get involved in

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Speaker 1: the game early, so hopefully they can figure that out

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Speaker 1: here as the season progresses here. But all right, that'll

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Speaker 1: do it for us. Here on the Betting Pros College

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Speaker 1: Football Podcast today, we back lear in the week with

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Speaker 1: Treel Furman with our picks and prediction show Bogs as

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Speaker 1: he allude to it. We'll be back on Friday with

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Speaker 1: his best bets and player props as well. Until then,

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Speaker 1: make sure you like this video. If you enjoyed it,

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and our podcast

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Speaker 1: feed wherever you get your podcasts. Plus download the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros app and synk your sportsbooks. Today for Scott Bogin,

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Speaker 1: I'm Seth Wilcock, take care of y'all.

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