1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. I'm Stephanie Flanders, 3 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 2: head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg. Earlier today I 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 2: sat down with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves for 5 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 2: an exclusive conversation following her recent Spring statement. We discussed, 6 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: among other things, her expectations for UK economic growth and 7 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: how she sees the escalating war in the Middle East 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 2: impacting the UK. Chancellor, thank you so much for doing this. 9 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 2: You've come over to Bloomberg headquarters straight from the Treasury on. 10 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: A busy day, come straight from the Chamber. 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 2: From the chambers of course, yes, you want to talk 12 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: about your growth, your thoughts about the state of the 13 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: UK economy and the growth plan going forward. But obviously, 14 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: given everything that's happening today in markets in the Middle East, 15 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: I want to start with just asking you a few 16 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: questions about that. I mean, you mentioned in your speech 17 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 2: in the Commons that you are planning to talk tomorrow 18 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 2: to North oil producers. What are you hoping to get 19 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 2: out of that conversation? 20 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: So I said in the chamber that some of the 21 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: most affected industries I wanted to spend some time with 22 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:24,559 Speaker 1: and been in touch with over the last few days, 23 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: and obviously developments in oil and gas markets are absolutely 24 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 1: crucial for every family and every business in Britain. Now, 25 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: oil and gas production in the North Sea Council less 26 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: than one percent of global supply of oil and gas, 27 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: but it's still very important. It's important for jobs in 28 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: the UK, it's important for investment, and it's important for 29 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: every family in Britain. So I'm going to be meeting 30 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: with them tomorrow to talk about their production plans and 31 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: also to talk about how they see the situation, because 32 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: every oil and gas company pretty much that operates in 33 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: the North Sea will also operate in other parts of 34 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: the world, whether that is Shell or BP or equanor 35 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: or others, and so getting their insights into how oil 36 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: and gas prices might evolve based on a number of 37 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: different scenarios over the coming days and weeks will be 38 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: very useful for me and for the government. 39 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 2: We're looking I mean, we can give you our scenarios 40 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 2: as well, but our economists are looking at this you know, inevitable, 41 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 2: as you suggest, there's nothing that our North to oil 42 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 2: producers could do to affect a global oil price hike, 43 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 2: it is already up significantly. If it sustained for any period, 44 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 2: it seems like it would be much harder to get 45 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: the headline inflation rate in the UK back to two percent, 46 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 2: are as you were hoping it would be. You did 47 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 2: a lot of things in the budget to make that 48 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 2: to encourage shall we say, inflation to go back to 49 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 2: two percent even by April. Has Donald Trump's war in 50 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:02,519 Speaker 2: Iran taking that away from. 51 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: You, Well, the first thing I would say is that 52 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: the action that I took in the budget will still happen. 53 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: So the freezing prescription charges, the freeze in rail fares, 54 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: and also the one hundred and fifty pounds off of 55 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: energy bills that I announced in the budget will take 56 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: effect next month, and so people paying families paying their 57 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: gas and electricity bills do not need to worry about 58 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 1: the next three months that price cap is set and 59 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: they will get the benefit of those policies I announced 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: in the budget. But of course, you know, we have 61 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: to see how things evolve in terms of where oil 62 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: and gas prices go going forward. But what the Office's 63 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: Budget Responsibility confirmed today and what the Bank of England 64 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: said when they published their most recent outlook for inflation 65 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: in February was that the measures that we have taken 66 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: as the government are helping bring inflation back down to 67 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: target much sooner than they anticipated. I think in the 68 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: OBR numbers today inflation is likely to meet target at 69 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: six months earlier than they previously envisaged. Now, of course 70 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: that doesn't take into accounter developments over the last few days, 71 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: but also we are only just into what is happening 72 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 1: in the Middle East. We saw each other last week, Stephanie, 73 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: and we were not talking about the Middle East or around. 74 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: There was lots of other things to talk about in 75 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:32,679 Speaker 1: the economy, but this only really kicked off on Friday. 76 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: So of course we're monitor developments very very closely and 77 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 1: do everything in our power to protect businesses and families 78 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: in the UK, and we are better placed to do 79 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: that than we were just a few months and years 80 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 1: ago because of the choices we've taken as a government. 81 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: So what I was able to set out today in 82 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: the OBR forecast is that both interest rates and inflation 83 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: have been falling faster than expect. Government borrowing and debt 84 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: have been revised down since the budget last year G seven. 85 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: Borrowing is not coming down at the same rate that 86 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: it is in the UK. Our public set to net borrowing, 87 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: forecast to be just four point three percent this year, 88 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: is the lowest in six years and the first time 89 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: in twenty two years that our borrowing has been lower 90 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 1: than the G seven average. So welcome developments which put 91 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: us in a stronger position to be able to withstand 92 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 1: the shocks, including the shock that we are likely to 93 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: be responding to in the weeks and months ahead, than 94 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: we would have been without the action that we've taken 95 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 1: as a government to secure and stabilize the public finances. 96 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 2: But it is vulnerable. I mean even that fall in 97 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 2: borrowing is driven in large part actually by lower than 98 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: expected spending, which is actually in turn lower spending on 99 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: guilt interest, which is a result of lower inflation. So 100 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 2: that lower path for inflation that we were counting on 101 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 2: even market we're assuming for this year, that was also 102 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 2: going to potentially pave the way for another rate cut. 103 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 2: You mentioned in your speech how proud you were that 104 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 2: you've been part of the government at the Bank of 105 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 2: England had been able to have six rate cuts since 106 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 2: ry King's going on. 107 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: There's three things that are going on to put our 108 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: public finances in a better position. First of all, tax 109 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: revenues have come in stronger than anticipated, and we saw 110 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: that particularly in the January January borrowing numbers, it was 111 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: the biggest surplus on record. 112 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: But yet to day isn't it still lower than the 113 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 2: forecast than the abr's forecast, So that that month was 114 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 2: very good. 115 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: But borrowing has come in lower. This revenue, the borrowing 116 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 1: has come in lower than forecast. And spending we set 117 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 1: out the spending review last summer, many people said, well 118 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: we wouldn't really able to live within those budgets. Well, 119 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: this year we have not used all of the surplus 120 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 1: that has put us for genuine emergencies and instead we're 121 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 1: able to roll that surplus forward, so spending is under control. Whereas, 122 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: of course when I became Chancellor, the reserve for the 123 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: year that we were in and we were only three 124 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: months into it had been spent four times over. So 125 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: we haven't used a full reserve for this year. And 126 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: also borrowing costs have come down. The OBR today forecast 127 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: that borrowing costs next year will be four billion pounds 128 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: lower than that even they thought in the budget last year. 129 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: So tax revenewe coming in a bit, stronger, spending coming 130 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: in as planned and in fact not even using the 131 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: full reserve, and also borrowing costs coming down because of 132 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: that additional stability we've brought to the economy have all 133 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: contributed to the better forecast for the public finances that 134 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: I was able to set out today. 135 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 2: But that good news, A lot of that was related 136 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: to the falling guilt yields, A lot of some of 137 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 2: that has been reversed even just today in the concerns 138 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 2: in the markets and expectations of lower interest rates from 139 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 2: the Bank of England, which traders in the market this 140 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 2: week have decided, you're going to certainly not happen in 141 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,559 Speaker 2: March now and where as they were expecting, and maybe 142 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: not happen in the next few months. 143 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: Well, I won't comment on market movements over a day 144 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: or two. I think it is too early to know 145 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 1: what the market impact is. Obviously, the immediate concern for 146 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: the government is trying to get the three hundred thousand 147 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: British citizens who are in the Middle East back home 148 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: if they want to come back to the UK. I 149 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: think around one hundred thousand have always already registered for 150 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: the scheme to say that you are there and that 151 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: is very welcome, and that's our mediate goal, as well 152 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: as protecting our personnel and our assets in the region. 153 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: But of course, the economic consequences of any extended military 154 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: action in the Middle East, which is so crucial for 155 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: trade and for oil and gas, would have an impact 156 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: on the UK economy, But it is too early to 157 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: judge exactly what that will be and therefore what response 158 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: would be needed. 159 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 2: I mean, I'll focus on the economy today. I'm not 160 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 2: going to go into the government stance in relation to 161 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 2: the support or not for what the President's doing. But 162 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 2: judging from Donald Trump's posts in the last and interviews 163 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours, he does seem to 164 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 2: be not very happy with the Prime Minister as a 165 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 2: result of the last few days. Do you worry that 166 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 2: that will make it harder to finalize, finally finalize the 167 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 2: trade situation, the trade deal with the US, which was 168 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 2: put into quite a lot of uncertainty by that Supreme 169 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 2: Court judgment a few weeks ago. 170 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: When it comes to decisions around using British armed forces 171 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: to take part in conflicts around the world, it is 172 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: very importan that we judge those on whether it is 173 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: legal and whether it is the right thing to do. 174 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: You can't make a decision about whether to get British 175 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: armed forces involved in a conflict because it may or 176 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: may not make it more likely to get a trade deal. 177 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:21,439 Speaker 1: And we judged that there was not a legal basis 178 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: for offensive action on Iran, but of course once Iran responded, particularly. 179 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 2: Sorry, not a legal basis for the UK or but 180 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 2: presumably not for the US either. 181 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: We can only make judgments for ourselves and that was 182 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: the judgment that we came to based on our legal advice, 183 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: and up to other countries to explain what action they've 184 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: taken and on what basis. But once Iran responded in 185 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: the way that they did, including with missiles being launched 186 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: into our allies who were not involved in the offensive action, 187 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: and the risks to our military basis in Cyprus, of 188 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: course it was right that we became involved in defensive 189 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: action and we were involved in that from Saturday, and 190 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: of course on Sunday we go permission for US jets 191 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: to use the British assets from which to launch those 192 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: defensive actions. And that's the decision that we've taken as 193 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: a government on trade I'm proud of what we've done 194 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 1: as a government. We've secured a trade deal with India. 195 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: I think probably the best trade deal that any country 196 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: in the world has secured with India, and we hope 197 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 1: to be able to bring that into an effect in 198 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 1: the next couple of months. But in addition, improving our 199 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: trade relations with our nearest neighbors and trading partners in 200 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: the European Union. And I'm going to say more about 201 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: our relations with the European Union in a speech I'm 202 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: going to give in a couple of weeks time, because 203 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: I think that that is one of the big bets 204 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: that we can take as a country to change our 205 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: trajectory for productive and growth. We've already rejoining the Erasmus 206 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: Scheme to allow young people to be able to study 207 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: in the European Union countries and for young people in 208 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: those countries to be able to study in the UK. 209 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: But we also want to deliver an energy and electricity 210 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: trading deal. We want a food and farming agreement and 211 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: SPS agreement, and also we want to bring in a 212 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: youth ability scheme so that young people in Britain can 213 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 1: go and take advantage of opportunities in Europe and vice versa. 214 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: Young people in the European Union can come and work 215 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: in the UK. I know that some countries around the 216 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: world are looking to pull up the drawbridge, but Britain 217 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: benefits from being an open trading economy, open to trade, 218 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: open to investment, and also open to talent. 219 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,959 Speaker 2: But for trade, it's enormously important just to have some 220 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 2: kind of certainty about what the trade rules are. And 221 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 2: it seems I mean, are you able to say to 222 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 2: UK exporters to the US that you know currently what 223 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: the trade rules are for going into the US, because 224 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 2: it's not clear to us. 225 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: Well, we secured a trade deal with the US last 226 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: year on the export of goods. Since then we've gone 227 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: further and secured a deal around pharmaceuticals, which is obviously 228 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 1: crucial for the UK given the importance of our pharmaceuticals concern. 229 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 2: Those things are not affected by the Supreme Court ruling. 230 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: As far as your concern, well, obviously we are in 231 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: constant negotiation and dialogue with the US administration, but there's 232 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: absolutely no reason why the trade deal that we secured 233 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: last year can't be maintained. And of course there are 234 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: other areas as well. Where we want to go further 235 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: with our trade links with the US, whether that is 236 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: on the future of capital markets, where we want to 237 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 1: deepen and strengthen the capital market links between our economy, 238 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 1: making it easier for British companies to raise finance in 239 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: the US and US finance, are US businesses to raise 240 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: finance in London, as well as doing more in terms 241 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: of mutual recognition of standards so that if you have 242 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:06,719 Speaker 1: a license for a product in the US, you can 243 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: bring it to the UK and again vice versa, to 244 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: help British businesses in financial services and elsewhere to be 245 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: able to launch product products in the US, which is 246 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: obviously hugely beneficial for UK firms. So there are other 247 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: areas as well where we want to deepen those relations 248 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: with the US, but our nearest neighbors and trading partners, 249 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: our countries in the EU, and the benefits from rebuilding 250 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: trust between US and the European Union, and crucially those 251 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: trade links in goods and our hope in services in 252 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: due course is what will have the biggest impact on 253 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: British businesses and jobs and living standards. 254 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: So yeah, let's talk about that sort of broader approach 255 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 2: to growth that I know you're going to talk about 256 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 2: also in a speech in a couple of weeks, you 257 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 2: promise that today's spring statements being forecast would be a 258 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 2: non event So I think I can say to you 259 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: succeeded in making it not very eventful. We haven't had 260 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 2: all this kind of speculation that we had leading up 261 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 2: to the budget, so we haven't had that uncertainty. As 262 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 2: you've mentioned, the economic news leading up to this, at 263 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: least till this week was fairly positive. But obviously that 264 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 2: the political environments is if anything, has deteriorated for the government, 265 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 2: and we had a poll today that showed labor even 266 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 2: potentially behind the Greens as well as reform. I guess 267 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 2: I mean your economic mission, which was central to this government. 268 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 2: You know, a large chunk of voters you look at 269 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 2: the polling, are disappointed, feel that the government should have 270 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 2: done better. Do you think that you could have done better? 271 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: People voted for change at the general election a year 272 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: and a half ago, and I'm deeply aware of my 273 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: responsibility and helping to deliver that change. Now since I 274 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: became chancellor, wages have increased faster than inflation every single month, 275 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: and there's six cuts in interest rates means that if 276 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: you're taking out a mortgage, a typical mortgage, you'll be 277 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: saving around one three hundred pounds a year than if 278 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: you'd have taken that mortgage out the day before I 279 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: became Chancellor of the Exchequer. But the years leading up 280 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: to that had been really tough for people. The last 281 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: parliament was the first parliament ever where people were poorer 282 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 1: on average at the end of it than they were 283 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: at the start, and it takes time to unwind that legacy. 284 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: We've made progress, but is there more to do? Absolutely 285 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: there is, which is why I'm so focused on bringing 286 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 1: down inflation and interest rates and returning that stability to 287 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: the economy. But the other thing that makes people's lives 288 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: better is having public services that function properly. Being able 289 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: to get a hospital appointment or a doctor's appointment when 290 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: you need it, Ensuring your kid gets into the school 291 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 1: they want to go to and has good qualified teachers, 292 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: buses and trains that run frequently and are affordable at 293 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: all of those things that you know is starting to 294 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: make a difference. But there is more to do, and 295 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: that by the end of this parliament, I think that 296 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: the next election what people are going to ask is 297 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: and me and my family better off? And I'm determined 298 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 1: that the answer to that question is yes, by ensuring 299 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: that people have more money in their pockets to spend 300 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 1: on the things that they want to spend it on, 301 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: not just the essentials the mortgage, the bills, the weekly 302 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 1: food shop, but more money to spend on the things 303 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 1: that they actually want to do that give them pleasure 304 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: in their lives. And are undetermined that people have more 305 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: of that. But the first thing you need to do 306 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: to achieve that is to bring stability back to the economy. 307 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: And what the OBR forecasts show today is that we 308 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: have made great strides forward in returning that stability to 309 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: the economy, which should pay dividends in terms of having 310 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: money to spend on the priorities of working people and 311 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: to make working people better off. 312 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 2: Now there was quite a lot in the forecast. I mean, 313 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 2: there is a slightly lower growth forecast for this year, 314 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 2: and that's due to lower net migration, which the government 315 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 2: has obviously taken a lot of measures on, but the 316 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 2: ABI expects it and expects that fall in net migration, 317 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 2: the increase in the labor force and people coming in 318 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 2: to be permanent, but that that sort of half a 319 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 2: percent of GDP loss and growth will be made up 320 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 2: for in productivity, will actually get more out of the 321 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 2: people we have working in this country. So is that 322 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 2: the new sort of UK growth model that we don't allow. 323 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: We're not really welcoming people in the same way, but 324 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 2: we want to get We hope employers get more out 325 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 2: of British workers. 326 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: So we want to make sure that the best talent 327 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: in the world comes to Britain and that's why we've 328 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: extended our global talent visas and they're available for high 329 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: net worth individuals, entrepreneurs and also academics in key subjects, 330 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: particularly where they bring research teams with them to the UK. 331 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: And those new global talent visas are proving very popular, 332 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: and that is about us being able to have greater 333 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: say about who comes into this country, and we have 334 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: tightened up the rules around dependents, around students, around low 335 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 1: skilled workers. That is the right thing to do, and 336 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: we want to make sure that people who are already 337 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 1: here have got the skills to fill the vacancies that 338 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: exist in the economy. But as I said before, I 339 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: want Britain to be seen as a country that is 340 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: welcome to investment, trade and talent, and that's what those 341 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: global talent visas do. Now. The OBI have revised down 342 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: their forecasts for net migration, so it's something like two 343 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: hundred thousand net migration a year. That is obviously way 344 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: down on the nearly a million number we had a 345 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: couple of years ago. But what matters in terms of 346 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: GDP is whether that GDP is felt in people's lives, 347 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: and that's why GDP per capita is probably the better 348 00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: measure of whether that GDP is actually impacting on your 349 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: living standards. And what the OBR today say is that 350 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 1: they're revising up GDP per capita and expect GDP per 351 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: capita to increase by five point six percent during the 352 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 1: course of this parliament. And of course in the last parliament, 353 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: GDP per capita actually fell and so that is a 354 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 1: sharp turnaround from one parliament to the next. And those 355 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: numbers were revised up to day, which is very welcome 356 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: because in the end, what matters is whether that GDP 357 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: is being felt by you and your family, and GDP 358 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: per capita is what really shows that. 359 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 2: That's very striking in the numbers. I mean, if we 360 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 2: end up. I mean the path we're on now, we 361 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 2: could have negative net migration by the end of the year. 362 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 2: I'm quite interested in whether that's going to be a 363 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 2: sort of cause for celebration inside the Treasury, given the 364 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: pressure on the government to reduce those numbers, or concern 365 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 2: about how that was achieved. I mean the things that 366 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 2: were easiest to control. I mean students. For example, I 367 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 2: spoke to someone at a major university last night that 368 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 2: has been benefiting from some of the measures you just 369 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 2: talked about attracting foreign academics, academics from the US, but 370 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 2: at the same time they're losing foreign students who find 371 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 2: it less attractive the regime here and are even sort 372 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 2: of worried about the environment for foreign students. So can 373 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 2: you see I mean, if you're undermining the business model 374 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,360 Speaker 2: for universities and it doesn't matter so much that they're 375 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 2: able to attract all these great academics. 376 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: I think we've done a lot to support universities since 377 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: we came into office. We've increased R and D funding, 378 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: and obviously a lot of that budget goes to universities 379 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 1: to invest in basic research, and we are reintroducing maintenance 380 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: grants for the poorest students to encourage them to take 381 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: that leap and go to university. But we've got to 382 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: get the balance right. It has been the case some 383 00:21:55,920 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: courses at some colleges and universities many people the end 384 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: of their course are applying for asylum in Britain and 385 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: that is not what student visas were ever meant for. 386 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 1: And so we have got to be tightening up when 387 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 1: there is abuse. But at the same time, that gives 388 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 1: us greater freedom to introduce those high talent visas because 389 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 1: we're freeing up space to enable us to offer more 390 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: of those and I think that's what is most valuable 391 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 1: to us as a country, to attract that wealth creating 392 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: talent to the UK, and that is that is our ambition. 393 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 1: At the same time, we've got to do more to 394 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: make sure that young people in particular who are already 395 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: in this country have got the skills and the confidence 396 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: to succeed in the jobs market. 397 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 2: We're running out of time, but as well, I mean, 398 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 2: do you worry some of our most successful sectors that 399 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 2: we would encourage people to go into are in professional 400 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,959 Speaker 2: services that are potentially the most going to be the 401 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 2: most transformed by AI. So do you worry that some 402 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 2: of our successful companies and sectors has got this massive 403 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 2: missile headed in its direction called AI. 404 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 1: But the industries where we are successful, like professional business services, 405 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: financial services, creative industries and AI and tech and life sciences. 406 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: Of course there are risks of destruction and some jobs going, 407 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 1: but there's also a massive opportunity if we seize them 408 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 1: to get the innovation and get the research here in 409 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: Britain and then build those new businesses in Britain. I 410 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: am an optimist when it comes to innovation and AI. 411 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: Every other wave of transformation and industrial change has resulted 412 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: in there being more jobs and better paid jobs. There's 413 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 1: no reason why this revolution can't be the same. But 414 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: we've got to make sure that people in this country 415 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 1: have got the skills to be able to do those jobs. 416 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: We're well placed. We've got some of the best universities 417 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: in the world, we've got some of the best entrepreneurs 418 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 1: in the world, and we've got a government is backing that, 419 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 1: for example through R and D funding. But we've seize 420 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: that opportunity rather than being scared a bit. And one 421 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 1: of the things I'm going to be talking about in 422 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: my Maiz's lecture next week is how a government as 423 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: a country who can do more to back innovation and 424 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: AI but in a way where the rewards are reaped 425 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 1: by ordinary citizens. 426 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 2: I mean, as you know, Chancellor, there's a lot of 427 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 2: people in the city, a lot of Bloomberg clients who 428 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 2: talk about how the environment, the tax environment and elsewhere 429 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 2: other things has changed since labor came into power, and 430 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 2: they're all they say, they're advising their children to move 431 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 2: to Dubai. We're seeing clients move their accounts, headge fund 432 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 2: investors and others move their accounts to Dubai. Do you 433 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 2: think that those kind of judgments are going to be 434 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 2: affected by Does that look like such a safe decision 435 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 2: today when the missiles are flying. 436 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: Look, I think all of us are reading stories in 437 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 1: the paper or hearing of people who we know or 438 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 1: we've worked with, who have made those decisions to move abroad. 439 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: But I would say that there are lots of things 440 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: that are attractive about the UK. A safe and secure 441 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 1: economy with strong defenses, and that is one of the 442 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 1: many things that is attractive about being in the UK. 443 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 1: But we only have those things because we pay for them, 444 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: including investing more in our defense which in the world 445 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: that we live in today seems more important than ever. 446 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 2: Well, another time I'll ask you how you're going to 447 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 2: get that three percent of GDP. But I'm getting ushered out, 448 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,879 Speaker 2: So thank you very much Chancellor for joining us. 449 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 1: Thank you, Stephanie. 450 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to my conversation with the Chancellor of 451 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 2: the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, and be sure to check out 452 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 2: my weekly podcast, Trump Andomics, where we look at everything 453 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: in the economic world of Donald Trump. Daybreak Europe. We'll 454 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 2: be back tomorrow