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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sean Zerulo, joyed today by Billy Word to help

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Speaker 3: you break down our best bets for this weekend's UFC card,

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Speaker 3: giving you our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props and more.

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Speaker 3: And if you'd like to instantly if you'd like to

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Speaker 3: tell some of the best that we discuss on today's show,

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Speaker 3: make sure to find the quick slip links in the

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Speaker 3: podcast and video description, or go to actionework dot com

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Speaker 3: slash bet now Main Event Welterweight main event between Gilbert

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Speaker 3: Burns and undefeated Michael Morales. Moras five and oh and

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Speaker 3: the UFC seventeen to zero in his career had a

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Speaker 3: big spread on this money line. Cheapest price on Morale's

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Speaker 3: minus seven to seventy best price on Gilbert Burns has

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Speaker 3: gone up to plus six hundred. This one has taken

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Speaker 3: a bunch of steam. I think Morales was open closer

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Speaker 3: to minus four hundred.

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Speaker 4: Is that right, Billy?

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Speaker 3: Is he got that much?

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Speaker 4: I said, I have it somewhere, but yes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, dramatical lind movement fight is plus two hundred to

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Speaker 3: go to a decision, minus two thirty five to end

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Speaker 3: inside the distance. That's the direction I would lean. Is

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Speaker 3: the total on this fight to start round four minus

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Speaker 3: one ten maybe the over three and a half at

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Speaker 3: plus money that goes to decision at plus two hundred.

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Speaker 3: I made this around plus one sixty to go to

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Speaker 3: a decision, So that is where I show value on

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Speaker 3: this fight. Considering Marale's money line, he probably should finish

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Speaker 3: the fight inside the distance. We'll see how long Gilbert

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Speaker 3: is able to survive in there with him significant size

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Speaker 3: advantage for Morales two inches taller, he's an eight inch

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Speaker 3: each advantage, and he's also thirty teen years younger. This

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Speaker 3: is his first main event test. First five round tests.

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Speaker 3: We've seen Gilbert go to a decision across twenty five

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Speaker 3: minutes recently, with both Sean Brady and Balal Mohammed finished

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Speaker 3: in the third round while leading two all in the

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Speaker 3: scorecards against Jack Dalla Metalana. If he can grapple Morales

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Speaker 3: and he can win minutes, Morale is also very content

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Speaker 3: to stay on the outside to have a lower paced,

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Speaker 3: low tempo fight and allow Burns to work his way

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Speaker 3: into the fight, potentially conserve his cardio for the later rounds.

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Speaker 3: That said, if I'm making a live bet here, it's

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Speaker 3: probably on the Morale's side. I think Morales may start slow,

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Speaker 3: allow Burns to win or be competitive in minutes early,

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Speaker 3: and then the better athlete, the younger man across twenty

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Speaker 3: five minutes, I think likely er to hurt Burns and

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Speaker 3: finish him in the second half of the fight. Ninety

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Speaker 3: one percent takedown defense in his career denied twenty one

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Speaker 3: off twenty three takedown attempts. I think Burns needs to

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Speaker 3: grapple in order to have success. Billy, do you agree

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Speaker 3: with that assessment? Burns needs to grapple and do so

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Speaker 3: proactively in order to have success. Think he could be

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Speaker 3: competitive in the kickboxing like he was with Hamzatt, and

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Speaker 3: then how are you interested in betting this fight?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think Michael Morales is a much better

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Speaker 1: technical striker than Hamzatt. Like Hamsot's weird because he's really

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Speaker 1: good at everything until he gets tired and that's super fast,

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Speaker 1: so like it's hard to make any strong uh like

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Speaker 1: comparisons there.

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Speaker 4: I do think he needs to grapple.

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Speaker 1: It's a really weird fight because, on the one hand,

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Speaker 1: like if you look at the guys, Gilbert Burns is

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Speaker 1: lost to two welterweight champ, three welterweight champs counting Kamara

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Speaker 1: Ousman and then Sean Brady, who's arguably like the second

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Speaker 1: or third best welterweight, and then Hamzat in a fight that,

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Speaker 1: like Burns was winning at various points or would have

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Speaker 1: won had it gone five rounds, and just kind of

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Speaker 1: got over ran in the first you gotta argue that

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Speaker 1: should have been a draw just based on you know,

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Speaker 1: hamzag gets a ten eight Gilbert the next two. So

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Speaker 1: it's a huge step up for Morales, huge step down

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Speaker 1: in some ways for Burns, Like we might look back

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Speaker 1: at this in retrospect and say, yeah, you know all

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Speaker 1: these former champions like Michael Morales, like that wouldn't shock

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Speaker 1: me if if he fits into that group at some point.

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Speaker 1: The takedown defense from Moralis is really misleading. If you

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Speaker 1: look at his UFC records, there's no one on here

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Speaker 1: that you think of as like a really solid grappler.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Neil Magnie is probably the best, and Magnie

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Speaker 1: is more of a submission grappler than a great wrestler,

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Speaker 1: and that fight was pretty short too, so he didn't

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Speaker 1: get a lot of chances to do it. I have

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Speaker 1: in our sheet right now, Burns live is like an

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Speaker 1: angle I'm looking at. I actually agree with you that

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Speaker 1: he's the likelier fighter to fade. The only reason I

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Speaker 1: say that is I just want to see if he

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Speaker 1: looks totally washed at this point, Like looking you know,

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Speaker 1: he's on a three fight losing streak, but it's been

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Speaker 1: the really good guys, very old, thirty eight, thirty nine

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Speaker 1: almost I believe, Yeah, he's thirty nine in like two months.

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Speaker 1: It's entirely possible he's totally washed and just doesn't look right.

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Speaker 1: If he comes out and looks competitive in the first round,

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Speaker 1: and it means we get plus four point fifty instead

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Speaker 1: of plus six hundred on Burns, sure right, And if

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Speaker 1: that happens, it's probably because he won.

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Speaker 4: A round, so then we're one round to the good.

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Speaker 1: I could a make a case for Gilbert Burns now

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Speaker 1: that he is the highest plus six hundred.

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Speaker 4: It's just such a big difference.

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Speaker 1: I saw somebody this week said Michael Morale is like

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Speaker 1: the created character in a video game with great stats,

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Speaker 1: who hasn't learned any moves yet. I believe it was

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Speaker 1: Jack Slack, who's a great, you know, technical analyst. And

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Speaker 1: it's true though, like he doesn't do anything super technically adept.

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Speaker 1: He's just big, fast, all the physical tools, no real

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Speaker 1: weaknesses and burns. Is a crafty guy who's you know,

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Speaker 1: world champion in jiu jitsu, adapted really well to MMA,

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Speaker 1: can wrestle a lot better than most jiu jitsu guys.

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Speaker 1: So I could see that case at plus six hundred.

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Speaker 1: I just want to see him for a round first,

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Speaker 1: to see if he looks like he's got anything left

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Speaker 1: in the pan. So that's how I'm going. Might not

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Speaker 1: even end up betting it, but that's my early thought. Now,

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Speaker 1: not super interested in the fight, just when the spread

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Speaker 1: is that wide on the money line, I kind of

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Speaker 1: look past it for the most part, especially when I

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Speaker 1: know you're doing the full preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm glad he made the points about Morales. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 3: that's my biggest issue with him as a fighter. A

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Speaker 3: phenomenal athlete, big guy. What is he actually good at

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Speaker 3: in terms of MMA skills is what is his best skill?

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Speaker 3: Is it judo defense? It is it just having that?

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Speaker 3: Like again, power is not his skills. So what technically,

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Speaker 3: what would you say is his best skill as it

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Speaker 3: is Judo.

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Speaker 1: I would say probably his striking, like not just his power.

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Speaker 1: He's got you know, good volume, he managers ranged. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's the thing I think we overlook with some of these.

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Speaker 1: He's not super tall, but he has a seventy nine

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Speaker 1: intrigue and he actually uses it, which we don't see

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Speaker 1: from a lot of tall guys. And that's a skill.

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Speaker 1: But like this is also again not an MMA skill,

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Speaker 1: but is his best skill for lack of a better term,

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Speaker 1: just being twenty five, because if you're twenty five and

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Speaker 1: a really good athlete, you can learn some other stuff.

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Speaker 1: Like his best skill is he has a big cup

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Speaker 1: that we need to fill up maybe, which is I know,

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Speaker 1: again not really a skill.

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Speaker 4: But he could show up super.

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Speaker 1: Good at anything and none of us would really be surprised,

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Speaker 1: right if he came out and to start a head

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Speaker 1: kicking people death or go. Yeah, he's a young dude,

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Speaker 1: good athlete. Of course he learned that. So that I

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Speaker 1: think is that And obviously he's going to be continuing

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Speaker 1: to get better for at least a few years if not,

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Speaker 1: you know, five six, seven years at this point.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: There's not like one thing that you're like, Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: can't say judo defense is your best skill, like that

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Speaker 1: almost never comes up anyway.

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Speaker 3: I believe both of his parents are judokaz. He's been

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Speaker 3: training judo since he was a little kid. Big athlete though,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's ultimately what proves the difference. As

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Speaker 3: Gilbert tires like he did in the Jack Della fight

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Speaker 3: round three, round four, I think Morales maybe overwhelms him

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Speaker 3: with physicality considered a same gay parlay with Morales potentially

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Speaker 3: over one and a half in Morales over two and

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Speaker 3: a half in Morales, maybe finishing things in the back

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Speaker 3: half of the fight. But any sort of iteration of

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Speaker 3: this one going a little bit longer burns surviving for

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Speaker 3: at least twelve and a half minutes, I think is

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Speaker 3: how I'm gonna ultimately end up playing it given his

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Speaker 3: skill set relative to the athleticism advantage for Morales' going

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Speaker 3: to move on to our light heavyweight co main event

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Speaker 3: for our Fight of the Night to NORDOLPHI bel at

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Speaker 3: minus five fifty and Paul Craig at plus four hundred, Billy,

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Speaker 3: I expected you to bet on Paul Craig in some

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Speaker 3: way shape or for him this week. I didn't know

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Speaker 3: if it would be a straight money line play. I

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Speaker 3: assume if he got up to plus five hundred, you

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Speaker 3: might pull the trigger on the money line because he said, uh,

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Speaker 3: last week or the week before, like plus five hundred

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Speaker 3: is kind of your one defined path number, and he

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Speaker 3: does have one defined path here via the grappling. It's

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Speaker 3: an extremely binary fight. Craig very importantly coming back down

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Speaker 3: to one eighty five here from two oh five, so

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Speaker 3: I'm expecting less of your ability. I'm starting back to

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Speaker 3: coming back coming back up to two of five. I'm

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Speaker 3: sorry from one eighty five after cutting so gas tanks

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Speaker 3: should be a little bit better, but never dealt with

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Speaker 3: the power all that well from the light heavyweight. Seemed

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Speaker 3: to be able to handle it a little bit better

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Speaker 3: at middleweight, but he is eight years older. But Lotto seemingly,

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Speaker 3: you know, has the better power, better striking, but he's

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Speaker 3: very slow and like literally looks like he's moving through

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Speaker 3: like oil when he's he's walking around the octagon. Dude

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Speaker 3: is just extremely slow, so can Craig poleguard. You know,

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Speaker 3: Paul off his submission before Blotto really knows what's happening,

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Speaker 3: or is bladder just gonna crack him in the phase

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Speaker 3: once and the fight's over. I tend to lean towards

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Speaker 3: his being under and a quick finish under one and

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Speaker 3: a half at minus one forty. You're taking a much

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Speaker 3: more plus money approach to this fight. So you give

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Speaker 3: me your breakdown of Paul Craig against rudolf A. Blotto.

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Speaker 3: Any live betting angles you might be interested in, because

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Speaker 3: I haven't really thought about that much. And then how

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Speaker 3: you're playing this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is you're I'm the sharper like much more

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Speaker 1: well reasoned. This makes a lot of sense. Side, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to bury the lead. Paul Craig by knockout

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Speaker 1: is twenty five to one at fandule. That is an

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Speaker 1: absurd line. I am better than twenty five to one

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Speaker 1: to knock out Adolfo Blotto, not like me and my

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Speaker 1: prime like tomorrow. Throw me in there and let me

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Speaker 1: throw some headcakes. I've got a better than like three

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Speaker 1: and a half percent shot and knocking this dude out.

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Speaker 1: As you pointed out, he's very slow. I put it

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Speaker 1: in my full article for this. He has neither the

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Speaker 1: abiit nor the desire to get out a way of punches.

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Speaker 1: He kind of just stands there and is willing to trade.

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Speaker 1: Paul Craig is a very not good striker. I'm not

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Speaker 1: gonna lie to you and pretend he's good. But he

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Speaker 1: throws hard like he comes out here and just chucks

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Speaker 1: some stuff. And if there's anyone who's gonna stand in

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Speaker 1: the way of one and eat it, it's Hidolfo Bilato,

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Speaker 1: who was knocked down by Ihor Potieria probably could have

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Speaker 1: been finished, almost killed twice by Jimmy Krue once standing

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Speaker 1: and once on the ground, probably could have been finished.

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Speaker 1: Took a ton of damage against Crute, and that was

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Speaker 1: in February. That was barely three months ago, and one

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Speaker 1: very short month in there, no less, and he's coming back.

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Speaker 1: He's been knocked down in three of his four like

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Speaker 1: UFC or Contender Series fights. Just the most hittable person

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Speaker 1: in the division. Again, Paul Craig is not a great

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Speaker 1: striker by any stretch, but he'll get super intense and

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Speaker 1: he'll just wing some heavy punches and hope for the best,

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Speaker 1: and maybe one of them lands, it's twenty five to one, like,

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Speaker 1: how how likely do we need to be? The other

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Speaker 1: slightly more serious part of that angle is watching Blotto

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Speaker 1: on the ground. He is playing jiu jitsu, He is

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Speaker 1: not doing mma grappling. I watched him against Jimmy Krut.

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Speaker 1: He tied his hand off from bottom half guard for

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Speaker 1: an underhook to try to hit like an elevator sweep

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Speaker 1: or an electric chair or something, and just ate like

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Speaker 1: nine elbows to the face. And when he did eventually

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Speaker 1: get up, he was digging far side under hooks from

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Speaker 1: bottom side and ate like seven or eight more punches

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Speaker 1: and looked like he might have gone out for a second.

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Speaker 1: Those are all very valid and good jiu jitsu techniques

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Speaker 1: that are extremely dangerous in MMA. If Paul Craigs somehow

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Speaker 1: finds his way to the top, which is you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how we get there exactly, but if

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Speaker 1: he does, I actually think the ground and pound is

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Speaker 1: a more available option for him than submissions. And we've

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Speaker 1: seen Paul Craig pull off a few ground and pound

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Speaker 1: victories in the past. He Tko Andrea Munez in his

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Speaker 1: one win at middleweight, his submission ish over Jamal Hill

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Speaker 1: was officially ruled a knockout when he broke his arm

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Speaker 1: and then like basically slapped him with his own arm.

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Speaker 3: Harmed is dangling like this, yeah yeah.

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Speaker 1: So like there's knocked out Shogun who on the ground,

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Speaker 1: which Shogun was eighty seven years old, so I'm not like,

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Speaker 1: but he'll go for ground abound is the broader point here.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about live stuff. It's probably Belotto because

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Speaker 1: he comes back from the dead in every fight and

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Speaker 1: then winsor draws. So like if Paul Craig does almost

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Speaker 1: knock him out early and we get a price on Blatto, sure,

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Speaker 1: like Paul Craig's game doesn't go well down the stretch

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Speaker 1: because he needs to be fresh to swing big bombs

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Speaker 1: or you to not be slippery so he can pull guard.

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Speaker 1: So I guess Blotto would be the live side. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, Like I went looking for this bet trying

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Speaker 1: to find a good price on Blotto by knockout and

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Speaker 1: saw twenty five hundred. I'm Craig, you can't. You can't

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Speaker 1: not take that, right, Like I put one tenth of

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Speaker 1: a unit because that's all Fan Duel would let me,

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Speaker 1: Like I max bet it in a sense to make

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Speaker 1: two point five units. Very excited about that. Come fun.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a Lota is extremely hittable, having my notes for him,

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Speaker 3: Homer Simpson que in terms of striking defense, it really

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Speaker 3: just takes the punches and helps you tire out and

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Speaker 3: plays rope it doope with you eight years younger. So

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Speaker 3: maybe that'll work against Paul Craig. Maybe worth a live

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Speaker 3: bet if he nearly dies in round one and does

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Speaker 3: not get finished. I'll be on there always.

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Speaker 1: Like that's just what he does. No, he always nearly

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Speaker 1: dies in round one, that's every fight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lotto live after round one could be worth

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Speaker 3: a look. May have some Craig inside the distance at

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Speaker 3: plus three seventy. I'm not sure exactly what it's lined at.

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Speaker 3: I think I projected it at plus three seventy. It's

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Speaker 3: probably closer to four to one. Considering his money line.

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Speaker 4: His money line plus three seventy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I projected his inside the distance at like plus

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Speaker 3: three seventy. I think I made his money line closer

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Speaker 3: to plus three hundred. Don't give him very much decision

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Speaker 3: equity at all, So value on the Craig side for me.

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Speaker 3: But we'll be playing the under one and a half instead.

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Speaker 3: Before we get to our favorite underdogs, just want to

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Speaker 3: remind everybody that the w NBA season is tipped off

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00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,440
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Speaker 3: com slash Pro. Let's move on to our favorite underdogs

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Speaker 3: for this Saturday. You've got a pair your eyeing. I've

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Speaker 3: got a fight to go to Decision bet at plus

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Speaker 3: money that I'm eyeing, But I also like the underdog

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Speaker 3: in that matchup. So let's start with Gabe Green against

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Speaker 3: Matteas Camilo lightweight bout. Green returning to one fifty five

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Speaker 3: after previously fighting at one seventy, coming off of a

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Speaker 3: lengthy layoff after his knockout loss to Brian Battle. I

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Speaker 3: make this fight about plus I believe plus one forty

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Speaker 3: to go to a decision. You're getting as high as

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Speaker 3: plus one sixty five. I even saw some plus one

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Speaker 3: eighties out there. I like Green's size, and I like

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Speaker 3: his activity and output in this fight if he does

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Speaker 3: not die early. And that's that's partially why I'm like.

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Speaker 3: I like Green a plus one ninety five. I like

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Speaker 3: that goes to decision a plus one sixty five. All

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Speaker 3: of it is kind of dependent upon Green cutting to lightweight,

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Speaker 3: not dying on the scales, and then not dying on

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Speaker 3: the first exchange. Camilla seems pretty aggressive, but I do

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Speaker 3: think this is ultimately a close and competitive decision, and

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Speaker 3: you're getting a nice big number on a lightweight bout

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Speaker 3: to go all fifteen minutes of plus one sixty five.

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Speaker 3: The divisional average line is probably closer to plus one

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Speaker 3: twenty five plus one thirty, so I think a little

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Speaker 3: extra juice there in terms of the odds. Billy thoughts

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Speaker 3: on Gabe Green against Potatos Camillo. Camillo the guy I

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Speaker 3: should mention who earned his contract at the UFC three

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Speaker 3: to eight press conference by showing up and asking Dana

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Speaker 3: White for a contract. He didn't won a Dana White

333
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 3: looking for a fight matchup in career wherever they were,

334
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Speaker 3: and then got the contract, so it didn't fight on

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Speaker 3: Contender series, didn't beat anybody super notable to get into

336
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Speaker 3: the UFC. Does have a win few wins over some

337
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Speaker 3: like eight no Russians. So what's what's your thoughts on

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00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,280
Speaker 3: Camilo as a prospect and then on the Green Camila matchup.

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Speaker 3: Any bets for you here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I almost just like reflexively bet against Camillo because

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Speaker 1: he got in just by asking, which like it's not

342
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Speaker 1: you know, it's not the crucible of all these various

343
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 1: other ways to get in. But he did beat an

344
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Speaker 1: eight to no guy. I don't have strong thoughts. I

345
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Speaker 1: haven't watched a ton of tape on him because he

346
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Speaker 1: didn't go through the Contender series.

347
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Speaker 4: My gut is that Dave Brain.

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Speaker 1: At almost two to one odds is weird for a

349
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Speaker 1: guy that's very against an opponent that's very unproven. But again,

350
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Speaker 1: didn't break down a ton of tape on this one.

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Speaker 1: I like your angle. I worry a little bit about

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Speaker 1: the weight class, you know, because it wasn't he up

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Speaker 1: at seventy for a while game.

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Speaker 3: Green, Yeah he was. He was fighting it well through,

355
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Speaker 3: not cut by battle. Now he's cut, he's turning, He's

356
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Speaker 3: coming back to one fifty five. He used to fight

357
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Speaker 3: at one fifty five off. I want to see how

358
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Speaker 3: he looks on the scales really before I bet it.

359
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Speaker 4: Yeah.

360
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 1: That's the other part too, is the two year layoff

361
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Speaker 1: is always concerning.

362
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Speaker 4: He's younger than I thought he was. He's still only

363
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Speaker 4: thirty two.

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Speaker 1: I thought he was roughly that age when we last

365
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Speaker 1: saw him, but he was the one who withdrew from

366
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Speaker 1: his fight last year.

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Speaker 4: No idea, what's going on?

368
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 1: Like if I had to bat this one, it would

369
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 1: certainly be Gig Green at the odds that I don't

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Speaker 1: have a strong feeling on it.

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Speaker 3: A couple of underdogs that you're eyeing. Let's talk about

372
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 3: Sidique Usaf against Myron Santo's fight. Sidik has been a

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Speaker 3: very public underdog this week. He's somebody I would have

374
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Speaker 3: considered betting, but for that angle. People picking him about

375
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,000
Speaker 3: a sixty one percent clip against Myron Santos. This week

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Speaker 3: I was on Francis Marshall against Myron Santo's Marshall robb

377
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Speaker 3: VI a decision Santo's a very good athlete. Sidiqu is

378
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 3: coming up from one forty five to one fifty five,

379
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 3: So I'm sure that's part of the angle that you like.

380
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,679
Speaker 3: I do have concerns about his chin. Generally speaking, he

381
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,399
Speaker 3: seems like he's the more he's been getting hit lately,

382
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 3: the worst his chin is reacting to shots. Maybe that's

383
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,119
Speaker 3: alleviated somewhat without cutting the weight and going to one

384
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 3: to fifty five. But Santo's im sureender luck ratings after

385
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Speaker 3: stealing that decision. Yeah, and then Sadik moving up from

386
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: one forty five to one fifty five yearsually an angle

387
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 3: you like. So where do you like the dog too?

388
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 3: And then tell me more about this matchup?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean you hit the two main points.

390
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Speaker 1: One is a guy who came in in Santos off

391
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Speaker 1: the Contender series, and his only actual UFC fight against

392
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 1: a pro proven fellow UFC fighter was just outright robbery.

393
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 1: I think like ninety five percent of media and fans

394
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 1: scorecards had that one for Francis Marshall clearly should have

395
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 1: gone that way. Marshall got there with his grapling. Sadik

396
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,639
Speaker 1: can grapple a little bit, But the important thing is

397
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 1: I think Sadik will be much much bigger and stronger

398
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 1: in here. I subscribe to a substack is really interesting, dude,

399
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 1: He's been taught looking for six or seven months about

400
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 1: going up to lightweight, making sure he does that right,

401
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 1: putting on the size. From my understanding of this fight,

402
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 1: Santos just like wanted to stay active and was offered

403
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 1: a lightweight fight when he normally fights featherweight. So just

404
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,919
Speaker 1: like Cherry, I'll take it, and then is planning on

405
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 1: going back to featherweight. So that's kind of a big

406
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,959
Speaker 1: size and strength edge for Sidik Yusaf, who also in

407
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 1: theory has a pretty big grappling edge here. That is

408
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 1: a combination I like and yeah, I am worried about

409
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: the chin. I'm hoping the time off for Yusuff where

410
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,400
Speaker 1: he's pretty publicly talked about like neck and back issues,

411
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: hoping he's been able to alleviate some of those things

412
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 1: with that time off. He's mentioned various treatments and stuff

413
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 1: like that, and the guys he lost to in his

414
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 1: creditor was knocked down by are Edson Barbosa and Diego Lopez,

415
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 1: so this is a huge step down in competition. He

416
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,680
Speaker 1: beat everyone except those two in Arnold Allen in the UFC,

417
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: so anytime he's fought not really elite guys, he's beat them.

418
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 1: Not that Edson Barboza is elite overall at this point,

419
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 1: but he's an elite striker. Yusef like probably could have

420
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 1: been given that fight in the first round of finishing him,

421
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 1: and then Edson was given the chance to came back

422
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: and did this. Being three rounds for Yusef makes me

423
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 1: much less worried about that angle too, though, just because

424
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,479
Speaker 1: he has tired out pretty badly in the past, so

425
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 1: I wouldn't bet him as a favorite. But at plus

426
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 1: one fourteen or so, I got plus one fourteen. Earlier

427
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 1: in the week, looked like Sadik was going to be

428
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 1: a favorite at some point, and now it's back to

429
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: plus one fourteen, so I'm more than happy with him

430
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 1: anything with a plus in front of it, basically, given

431
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 1: all those factors.

432
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 3: First part of the night, Tsha Pennington about minus three

433
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 3: fifty against Lana Pinero roughly plus two to seventy five

434
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 3: in the woman's strawet division. Paniero's five years younger, this

435
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 3: fight is heavily favored to reach a decision and Paniero

436
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,439
Speaker 3: is plus five point fifty to win by decision. Not

437
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 3: overthinking it too dramatically. She doesn't have great cardio of

438
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 3: the pair, but I do think she's the better grappler.

439
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 3: I think she can win two rounds with the grappling,

440
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 3: or at least make it competitive enough that she could

441
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 3: steal a decision on the scorecards. Do you like Paniro

442
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,880
Speaker 3: straight up on the money line, Billy? What is your

443
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,439
Speaker 3: price target on her? As I mentioned she is the

444
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 3: younger fighter here, Pennington has a lot of decision equity,

445
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:13,919
Speaker 3: But I think we're going to see a close and

446
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 3: competitive decision where the turning point may come with Pennington's

447
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: cardio on round two and maybe Paniro has done enough

448
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 3: to win the fight by that point, Saddie, see this

449
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 3: one playing out.

450
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, a close and competitive decision is should be Tisha

451
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,959
Speaker 1: Pennington's nickname at this point. Like she has very little power.

452
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: I don't believe she ever has a knock She got

453
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 1: a knockdown in twenty fourteen in her first UFC fight,

454
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 1: which she won by decision and finished Sam Hughes on

455
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 1: the ground later, but one knockdown in an eleven plus

456
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 1: year UFC career, and it was her very first fight

457
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: a million years ago. She throws a ton of volume

458
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 1: and a lot of activity, but none of it is

459
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 1: very hard and she doesn't get taken out, so it's

460
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 1: like very hard for her to ever clearly win around.

461
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: Before her last fight against carl Asparza, she had lost

462
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 1: two straight splits. She beat Carlos Barza unanimously, but that

463
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: really could have gone the other way. Like any round

464
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 1: in that fight, you could have judged either way, and

465
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 1: I don't think anyone would have really been outraged. Luana

466
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: paniniro not really great fighter, but she can get some

467
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 1: takedowns and when she hits, it'll look a little bit harder.

468
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 1: Pretty easy to steal some rounds that way, just by

469
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: being more like impactful with everything you do. I actually

470
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: really like your decision angle. If I was betting it now,

471
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 1: I bet Luana at plus three twenty in my luck ratings.

472
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: It's came down a little bit. I still take the

473
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 1: plus two ninety. I'm not sure exactly what it is.

474
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: I haven't looked in a minute. Also, Lauana plus three

475
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: and a half seems like a very good angle here

476
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: because it's very hard for not to have a Jrodger

477
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: who I think that Titia Bennington has lost a round,

478
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: So that's another angle. I don't have that price in

479
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: front of me. But if that's plus money, also intriguing.

480
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: Decision makes sense. I'm just viewing it as a continuum

481
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: right of like likeliest to win, best payout. They're all

482
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: the same thesis. It's just where on that continuum you

483
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 1: want to fall.

484
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm trying to pull up the Santos decision line

485
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 3: because that seems like a very sharp read. If it

486
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 3: is plus money, which I'd imagine it might be plus

487
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 3: three and a half is no, it's minus one fifty five, No,

488
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 3: thank you?

489
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 4: All right, so the books are onto that one.

490
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: Yeah. Normally, when you see a spread that big on

491
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 3: the money line minus three twenty for a favorite, that's

492
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 3: usually where the underdog starts to get to the plus money,

493
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 3: even minus one ten on the three and a half, Yeah, no,

494
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 3: thank you. At minus one fifty five, yeah, never mind.

495
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 3: I'd much rather bet her decision prop and take the

496
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: loss at plus five to fifty than watching her get

497
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 3: finished for the third time in Tisha Pennington's career in

498
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 3: round three.

499
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 4: St Yeah.

500
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 3: Paniro By decision plus five to fifty. I also am

501
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 3: with Billy on the money line. I'll see if I

502
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 3: end up playing the money line, but that is the

503
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 3: lone underdog money line that I actually project value on

504
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,199
Speaker 3: this week. I also lean to Gabe Green. As we

505
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: mentioned in that section, I prefer the ghost of decision

506
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 3: in the Green fight. Couple of other props that we

507
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 3: want to give out, I'm gonna be about another ghost

508
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: the decision prop in the Julian Rosa Melki Costa fight.

509
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: Erosa seemingly gets knocked down in every one of his

510
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 3: UFC fights and do not trust his chin. He's also

511
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: a very aggressive finisher. That said, I viewed melki Costa

512
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: as very durable, and I view him as much more

513
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 3: of a kicker and a puncher. So I don't know

514
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 3: if he has the power in his hands to threaten

515
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,160
Speaker 3: Erosa's chin, and if Erosa tries to grapple with him,

516
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 3: I do think he will survive the grappling. Featherweight bouts

517
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 3: on average go to decision at about a forty eight

518
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 3: percent clip. I make this fight closer to forty percent

519
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 3: and plus one p fifty and I show value on

520
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 3: the ghost the decision prop at about plus one seventy,

521
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 3: which is a much juicier number than the average divisional fight,

522
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 3: even after adjusting for the apex. Obviously, Billy, any thoughts

523
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: on Julian Rosa against Melki Costa and then after that

524
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 3: you've got a couple more props you want to give

525
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 3: out to.

526
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're taking the ghost to the decision. Any

527
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 1: thoughts of just making that the Erosa uh By decision

528
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: because I've been leaning to him all week, haven't got

529
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 1: there quite yet. I've been watching the tape on it

530
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: have been unable to fully convince myself. So is that

531
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: a way to play it where I can risk a

532
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: little to potentially get a big reward.

533
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 3: I worry that he gets knocked down and that's how

534
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 3: he loses around like he has the much likelier chance

535
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 3: of getting knocked down and losing a big moment. I

536
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 3: think of the two, and I also view him as

537
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 3: the likelier finisher, So I think I'd almost rather lay

538
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 3: the points with a Rosa, or like take a point

539
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 3: with a Rosa knowing he has that finishing upside baked

540
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 3: in and expecting it to be competitive. But yeah, I

541
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 3: give I think I give Erosa vastly more finishing upside.

542
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 3: Does that Does that make sense at all?

543
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 4: Yeah? No, I get it.

544
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: Like I said, I every time I watch either of

545
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 1: them fight, I convince myself that what I was thinking

546
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 1: before is wrong. So like it's just one of those

547
00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: that sometimes you can't you never really like calcify any thing.

548
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: I guess he's plus he's minus one ten for plus

549
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 3: three and a half. Like I think at worst he

550
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 3: loses twenty nine to twenty eight. I think he's likely

551
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 3: to finish coast Us. So I think I I think

552
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 3: I'd prefer the a Rosa plus three and a half.

553
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, I get that.

554
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 3: I might actually at that point, right, a Rosa plus

555
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 3: one fifty on the money line plus three and a

556
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 3: half minus one ten h pinero nearly plus three hundred

557
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 3: on the money line plus three and a half minus

558
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: one fifty five. So like that's that's what we mean

559
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 3: in terms of like the price discrepancy with these spreads.

560
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: They used to not know for lack of a better

561
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: like it used to seems like it was a pretty

562
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: straightforward formula of just if the money line is just

563
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: the point spread is this?

564
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, factor in the ghost the decision line as much

565
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: now they.

566
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 1: Do, yeah, which made it like I felt like for

567
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 1: a few months in there, I was just killing those

568
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: points spreads. Yeah, and now it's I keep looking at

569
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: him and nothing really seems all that great.

570
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 3: There's the reason only one book offers them domestically, So

571
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: it's not that it's not the easiest market to set.

572
00:26:58,760 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 4: Yeah.

573
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, A couple of props I'm looking at both weirdly

574
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: have like similar thesis. The first one, Yadia aradel val

575
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: I actually picked him to lose on the Contender series

576
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 1: because I was worried about his cardio. I was thinking

577
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: he'd get late stop. He did not looked great, big

578
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 1: athletic dude, jiu jitsu black belt, judo brown belt. He's

579
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: fighting Connor Matthews. Connor Matthews has been knocked out twice

580
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 1: in the UFC in his two UFC fights. Once was

581
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: like not even three months ago, and he's already stepping

582
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: back in there. Basically, Connor Matthews can wrestle you to

583
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 1: a decision, or he can just get absolutely melted when

584
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 1: he touches you. And way lesser athlete than YDV and

585
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: I just don't think he's able to take down the

586
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 1: highly credentialed grappler and YadA aradel Val Yadi Aradevell inside

587
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 1: the distance is plus one ten and this is just

588
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 1: another one where his money line is so wide that

589
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: you'd think the finish odds would be also favored at

590
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: the very least, but they're not. And then again, similar

591
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 1: thesis on DENISEE.

592
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 4: Gomes.

593
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 1: You can get hurt inside the distance at plus one fifty.

594
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: She's a massive favorite. I think it moved past minus

595
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 1: six hundred in a few books, if not all books

596
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: at this point. Yeah, pretty much almost everyone past minus

597
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: six hundred. Elise Reid is four and four in the UFC,

598
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 1: and she has been finished in every one of those losses.

599
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 1: So she either wins the close decision or gets finished.

600
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: And Denise Gomes, if she chooses to grapple here, which

601
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: she should, has just a massive grappling ability advantage on

602
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: the ground against Alist Reid. She doesn't do it enough.

603
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: I think she fell in love with her hands after

604
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 1: picking up a couple of quick knockouts early in her

605
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: UFC career. The great part about this, though, is she

606
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: is so much faster and also a better striker that

607
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: she might mess around and get a knockout on the feet,

608
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: So I'm going to be screaming at the TV for

609
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: her to grapple until this fight is settled. But we

610
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 1: could still win this bet even if she doesn't. So

611
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: a couple of plus money inside the distance props on

612
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: two people who are heavy favorites, but we're getting plus

613
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: money on the finish line.

614
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I expect that to be minus one twenty inside

615
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 3: this since you know minus one fifty more dramatically was

616
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: surprised to see a plus money number there to him

617
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 3: for him to finish. Connor Matthews, I'll probably be joining

618
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: you on that. Don't project a big edge on it

619
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 3: in particular, but I do not trust Matthew Schin. I

620
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 3: think he's one of the lesser athletes we've seen at

621
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 3: this level of MMA, no disrespect, he would probably still

622
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 3: kick my ass, just relative to the other athletes he's facing.

623
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 3: I view a significant gap in athleticism between them. My

624
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 3: best bet for this card Jared Gordon at minus one twenty.

625
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 3: I like him up to about minus one point thirty

626
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 3: fight open closer to pick him Gordon, it might have

627
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 3: even been plus money at one point. He's been very

628
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 3: unlucky in his recent fight should have won the decision

629
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 3: against Nazrat Howkcross fourteen of the sixteen media scorecards, eighty

630
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: four percent of fans had that fight for Gordon, and

631
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: obviously he should have won the Patty pimblet fight as well.

632
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: Twenty three of those twenty four media cards ninety percent

633
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 3: of fans scorecards had that fight for Gordon. In fact,

634
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 3: eleven of the twenty four meet cards and forty percent

635
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 3: of the fan score cards had that three to zero

636
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: for thirty twenty seven as opposed to Patty, So Gordon

637
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 3: in terms of luck ratings certainly do for some better

638
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 3: luck with the judges on the scorecards, and I view

639
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: him as the better wrestler and better boxer in this

640
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: matchup against Thiaga. Moys says. Moys is the better submission grappler,

641
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 3: but does not throw a lot of output. Jared lands

642
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 3: seven point five significant strikes for five minutes at distance.

643
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: Moys's lands three point one, a differential of plus one

644
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: point four to minus one point three in terms of

645
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: landed versus absorbed at distance for five minutes. Jared also

646
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: pretty prolac in terms of grappling attempts three point six

647
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 3: takedown attempts for five minutes at distance. Really, the only

648
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 3: thing I'm worried about here is moys Is getting to

649
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: Jared's back as they're standing up against the cage, getting

650
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 3: to his back and winning around with back control or

651
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 3: submitting him on the rap. That's literally it. Jared promoted

652
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 3: to black belt in jiu jitsu last year, a brown

653
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: belt for a long time, and a high level brown belt,

654
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 3: very deserving of having a black belt, not a guy

655
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 3: see getting submitted by Thiaga Moyses. So power advantage, boxing advantage,

656
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: wrestling advantage, output advantage, and likely the cardio advantage as well.

657
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 3: For Jared Gordon is a little bit older, but Thiaga Moyses,

658
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 3: you know, physically in his mid thirties, He's not a

659
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 3: guy of you as a physical threat, even to an

660
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 3: aging fighter. I think Gordon's gonna be the one on

661
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 3: the front foot, pressing forward, pushing Moises up against the fence,

662
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: and just landing more strikes throughout the fight. So it

663
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: give me Jared Gordon on activity and output, make him

664
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 3: around minus one thirty five, would bet him up to

665
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 3: about minus one thirty Your thoughts on the Gordon Moises fight,

666
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 3: Billy and then you're going to close things out with

667
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 3: one more favorite.

668
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I put Jared Gordon in my luck ratings when

669
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: he was plus money. Did not get around a betting

670
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: him myself because I've been second guessing it all week,

671
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: and now I'm pretty upset because he's minus one twenty

672
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 1: and I could have had plus I don't know, I

673
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: was like plus one oh four or something. It wasn't

674
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: a huge change. But agree with everything you said, except

675
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: for calling Thiago Moyses mid thirties. He turned thirty March

676
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: twenty third of this year, so barely thirty. He does

677
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: seem way older though, Like if you had asked me

678
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: before this week how old he was, I probably would

679
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: have said about the same age as Jared Gordon.

680
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 4: So I'm mostly just his mid thirties.

681
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 3: I knew he's like thirty one in my mind, but

682
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 3: for some reason, like I between saying twenty and forty,

683
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 3: I said thirty is mid thirty. So yeah, but I

684
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 3: appreciate the correction, thank you.

685
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 4: He has been twenty nine or thirty for like six years.

686
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, Like I don't know how he's done it,

687
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: but yeah, it's just always been like he's been around

688
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: a while. His USCBBU was twenty eighteen. Like, okay, but whatever,

689
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: that's not really the point. I'm less worried about Gordon

690
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: getting submitted or giving up the round on his back

691
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: just because the only time that happened was Grant Dawson.

692
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 1: It was late in the third round that Dawson actually

693
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: got the submission after taking him down a bunch of times,

694
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: which Grant Dawson can put a pace on anyone. He's

695
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: kind of like a lesser but bigger version of Morob

696
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: in that style. Like he's not as good. I'm not

697
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: saying it's Morob, but he'll he'll do that same kind

698
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: of thing to you. And unless you have that kind

699
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: of pace yourself, which as you pointed out in a

700
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: bunch of stats, Thiago Moyses does not. I don't worry

701
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: about that for sure. Last year, dude, Dawson, Yeah, that's

702
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: another good comparison to just Thiago Moyses can grapple, but

703
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,719
Speaker 1: he's not gonna shoot forty six takedowns at you and

704
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: just keep doing it over and over because it's hard

705
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: and like most people can't do that, and I don't

706
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: know how. I think I'm almost more impressed by Brady

707
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: doing it than Morob because he's forty pounds heavier.

708
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 3: Like Brady looked like a gorilla in his last fight.

709
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 3: That was uber impressive. I know he got knocked out

710
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 3: by We're getting off track, but I know he got

711
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 3: knocked out by Balala on the feet. But Brady's last

712
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: performance was one of the more impressive I think we've

713
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 3: seen in recent memory.

714
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go slightly more off track just because I

715
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: think this is an interesting thought. But uh, the only

716
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: way blal Mohammed ever gets another title fight is if

717
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: Sean Brady wins the title, because that would be a

718
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: very logical matchup to make like otherwise, good luck Balah,

719
00:33:58,360 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: Like you're gonna have to win a million fights so

720
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 1: nobody can.

721
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 3: But you're going into the fit because I think two

722
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: of the three judges gable all round one despite being

723
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 3: completely blended up after the first round. I don't know

724
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 3: if they saw Jack Allman Jack Dallas like flat face

725
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 3: and they're like, oh, like, well all flat in his

726
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: face in round one, but no, you look like that

727
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 3: was a horrible round scoring And I can't believe that

728
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 3: fight was taed too to going in to fight.

729
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty existing condition for Jackie Flattinos, as they call

730
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: him sometimes on Twitter.

731
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 4: All right, I'll bring this train back around.

732
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 1: He on sung Park minus one seventy five at Caesars last,

733
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: I look a bit of an offline. Everywhere else is

734
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: a little bit higher. Carlos Hernandez is the ultimate luck fade.

735
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: He has four wins between the UFC and Contender Series.

736
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 1: Three of those are split decisions, and one of those

737
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: is the rare technical decision. Now, the technical decision was

738
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 1: a clear win over Dennis Bondar, but Carlos Hernandez hit

739
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 1: him with a vicious headbutt that initially got ruled a TKO,

740
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: but they stopped the fight and went to the judges' scorecard,

741
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 1: and Bondar I think finished his UFC career like one

742
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 1: in seven or something. No, it wasn't that bad, but

743
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: not very good in the UFC. So when that's like

744
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 1: your signature win and everything else is a split decision,

745
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 1: Oh no, he finished at oh to three. He never

746
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 1: beat anyone, and Carlos Hernandez was the only fighter who

747
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: even needed a third round to beat Dennis Bondar. So

748
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: that's his signature win, right, Like that's the only win

749
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 1: that he clearly won. Now he's fighting guy Unsung Park,

750
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: who very dynamic. I like his striking a lot. He

751
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 1: struggles to find the range, like he throws a lot

752
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: that misses you by just a tiny bit. But Carlos

753
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: Hernandez not especially big or long. Carlos Hernandez needs to

754
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: wrestle here. I was very impressed with Unsung Park's bottom

755
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: game on the road to the USC with some of

756
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: his get ups and his ability to deal with that grappling.

757
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 1: He probably gets taken down, but I think he's able

758
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 1: to not do too much with it. And then Park's

759
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: style of like I'm gonna throw a lot, some of

760
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 1: it might hit you, some of it might fall just short.

761
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 1: If nothing else, that looks good to the judges, So

762
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 1: I think that gives him a little bit of decision equity,

763
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,280
Speaker 1: and the judges have to give a round against Carlos

764
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 1: Hernandez at some point here. The man's won split decisions

765
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: in a row like that has to come back around.

766
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 4: Last thing.

767
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: I found this a little bit interesting, even though not

768
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 1: really relevant to the handicap fourth straight Asian opponent for

769
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: Carlos Hernandez. It reminds me of when Jalen Turner had

770
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 1: to fight all of New Zealand before they let him

771
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 1: fight anyone else. I don't know why the UFC matchmaking

772
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 1: does that with guys, but they're just like every Asian

773
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 1: fighter in the division. That is your job. When you

774
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: get through all those guys, maybe you can do something else.

775
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 3: So, yeah, I guess you're weird. He's gonna have to

776
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,760
Speaker 3: fight Josh. He's fought two Japanese fighters, Tyra and Saria.

777
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: He fought Tuman Demerel who's from Mongolia. Now he's fighting

778
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 3: Park from Korea, So I guess he has to fight

779
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 3: Josh Van from Vietnam, and then he has to fight

780
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 3: Wilie Jiang for the woman's Yway title. And you can

781
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 3: check off the entire Asian confident for Yeah, it's it's

782
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 3: pretty wild. It's wild matchmaking. Every Asian opponent can face

783
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 3: Carlos Hernandez. I would also bet Wiley against Carlos Hernandez.

784
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 3: I think she is a physicality advantage against them.

785
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 4: He does.

786
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 3: Hernandez. We've seen resist a lot like against these grapplers.

787
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 3: Just resists to be almost the c Rod game plan,

788
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 3: where it's like resist, survive, scramble and then try to

789
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 3: land strikes when you can in the second and third round,

790
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 3: but against fellow flyways who don't tire out, it's it's

791
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 3: really not a game plan that's going to work, especially

792
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 3: when you don't carry a ton of power yourself. I

793
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 3: think that's why he's been doing a lot of split decisions.

794
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:24,839
Speaker 3: There's just not a lot of pop on his punch.

795
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 3: As he's a good cardio, he defends well, he puts

796
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 3: that volume, but in terms of like offense, there's nothing

797
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 3: really happening that is, you know, overwhelming opponents or counteracting

798
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 3: the grappling that's happening against them. How do you see

799
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 3: Park winning the fight? Mostly do you see Mount grappling

800
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 3: Hernandez because we've seen holes in Hernandez is takedown defense

801
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:43,359
Speaker 3: or you think you have strikes them.

802
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 1: I think it's probably a volume striking based decision is

803
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: I think the likeliest path here that one of his

804
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 1: road to the UFC fights. He was a little bit

805
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 1: tentative when with the striking, like he was just fainting

806
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: a lot and not really letting it go. But then

807
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: in his UFC debut prop against Shannon Ross, which you know,

808
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,919
Speaker 1: great assault here because Shannon Ross not have a great

809
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: UFC career, but he really opened up like from the beginning,

810
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: and when he lets it go, it's just gonna look

811
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: like he's doing so much better than Hernandez. The big

812
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: knock I had on Park is with that distance management issue.

813
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 1: He gets himself hit a little bit, like he's pretty hittable,

814
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 1: But Carlos Hernandez doesn't really hurt you or do anything

815
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: with those strikes. They're just kind of pit or pat

816
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 1: touch you, where Park shots at the very least are

817
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 1: going to look like they are doing the more and

818
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,959
Speaker 1: probably will actually be doing more. So I think it'll

819
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 1: be like some defensive grappling. If Hernanda takes a bad shot,

820
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: Park could certainly capitalize on that, but I expect him

821
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: to be trying to keep this standing and just being

822
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 1: so much more active that he can sway some judges

823
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: who again at some point have to give around to

824
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: people other than Carlos Hernandez.

825
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 4: I don't know how he keeps getting these.

826
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, project slight value on Park to win by knockout.

827
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 3: I made that line plus three fifty. You can get

828
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 3: him as high as plus four to fifty. I'm not

829
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:55,839
Speaker 3: sure if that interest you at all. Hernandez has been

830
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 3: pretty durable, but Park seems like in crack right.

831
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's the only guy to ever get knocked

832
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 1: down by Tetsuro Tyra, who's the definition of all grappling

833
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: and not any striking. So like, he's been pretty durable

834
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: because they've put him with a bunch of grapplers, one

835
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 1: of whom knocked him out. So yeah, I mean I

836
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 1: like that. And again, if I'm predicting a striking based win,

837
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,439
Speaker 1: it's not too much a leief to go from. Yeah,

838
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 1: he wins it by a striking decision too. He actually

839
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: hurts some here, so yeah, Park definitely throws hard. I

840
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: worry about him finding the range like he did a

841
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 1: lot of Michelle Watterson was like the poster child of this,

842
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: where she would kick the space in front of her

843
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: nose one hundred times a fight, and Park does a

844
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 1: little bit of that. But I think he's getting better

845
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: and he's very young, so like we can project him

846
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: to fix that a little bit, especially in a small page.

847
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 3: Worth noting Hernade has no career knockout wins on his record,

848
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 3: that is obviously concerning as an underdog at a fight

849
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 3: that is likely to be striking oriented. When you need

850
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 3: to strike, you do not have a grappling advantage, so yeah,

851
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: seems like a path to victory for him is another

852
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 3: competitive split this viision where he's likely stealing and robbing scorecards.

853
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 3: But that'll do it for a UFC betting preview for

854
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 3: this week. You can find more UFC betting content from

855
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 3: both Billy and myself on actionnetwork dot com and in

856
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 3: the Action Network AAP. And if you'd like to instantly

857
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 3: tell some of the bets that we discussed on today's show,

858
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 3: make sure to look for links in both podcasts video description,

859
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: or go to actionework dot com slash bet now. Don't

860
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 3: forget to download the free award winning Action of WORKAP

861
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: and sign up for Action pro formediate access to expert

862
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