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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Brownowitz Jailey. We bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg Terminent. Let us segue

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Speaker 1: to economics, finance and investment and the next moves. Andrew

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Speaker 1: Slimmon joins us senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley UH

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Speaker 1: Andrew Slemmon. John Farrell, you know him, the famed investment

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Speaker 1: strategist once told me the year always starts March thirty one.

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Speaker 1: It is upon us right now with the great reset

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Speaker 1: of December thirty one reviews that should be thrown out

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Speaker 1: the window. What is your reset March thirty one? As

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Speaker 1: you move on? Well, I think marcht one will be ugly,

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Speaker 1: but I certainly won't be as ugly as it was

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Speaker 1: earlier this month. I think the markets put in a

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Speaker 1: very noble rally off the low, and I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: surprised if we bang around here or even higher before

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Speaker 1: the end of March. But I don't think that's the

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Speaker 1: I don't think we've seen the low for the for

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Speaker 1: the years. So I think there's more pain to come,

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Speaker 1: you know, a second quarter into the summer before we

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Speaker 1: put in the ultimate love. There's a kink where yield

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Speaker 1: helps the banks, helps the markets, and then it doesn't.

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Speaker 1: Yield gets too high. Where is it an equivalent tenure

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Speaker 1: US yield? What's the level where it really begins to hurt? Boy,

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Speaker 1: you have nailed it, did I? Okay? I think that

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Speaker 1: is that is the key question, because you know, look

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Speaker 1: these yield curves. Choose your yield. It's almost like choose

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Speaker 1: your yield curve that fits your narrative. Oh, if you

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Speaker 1: want to, you know, talk about a recession, then you

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Speaker 1: look at the two a year too tenure. If you

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Speaker 1: if you think, you know, things aren't that bad and

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Speaker 1: the economy strengthened, then you look at the three months

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Speaker 1: of tenure that's deepening um. And so I think the

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Speaker 1: point is is that uh, financials run out of steam

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Speaker 1: before the yield curve tops out. And so that's that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be my litmus test. Are we really headed towards

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Speaker 1: a real slowdown or is the economy going to be

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Speaker 1: able to withstand FED tightening, and I think the relative

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Speaker 1: performance of financials is going to tell you if they

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Speaker 1: keep performing okay in a rising interest rate environment, that

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Speaker 1: tells me that you know, we we will we will

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Speaker 1: survive this, you know, FED tightening campaign. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what the number is, uh Tom, but I'm I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at the relative performance to help determine that. Andrew, let's

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Speaker 1: build on that and apply to the financials. Bank of

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Speaker 1: America did some work on this recently. There's a difference

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Speaker 1: between what the yield curve means for profitability for earnings

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Speaker 1: what the yield curve means for multiples. Another way putting

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Speaker 1: that is what the yield curve means for investor attitudes

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Speaker 1: to that particular industry group. Do you still think, even

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Speaker 1: if it perhaps shouldn't because the business model has evolved

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Speaker 1: drastically over the last few decades for banks on Wall Straight,

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Speaker 1: do you think still the shape of that yield curve

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Speaker 1: two's out attends still shapes investor appetite for this industry group. Yes,

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Speaker 1: because that's the problem, isn't it. I mean, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, so I've heard what you said. I you know,

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Speaker 1: we've got analysts. Tell me this over and over, and

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Speaker 1: then I watched what you know, the correlation to the

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Speaker 1: yolk curve, and it still remains, it remains high. So

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Speaker 1: I mean, look what happened when you know, when when

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Speaker 1: when the first invasion happened and there's a flight to treasuries.

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Speaker 1: What happened to the banks? They got crushed? And maybe

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Speaker 1: that's because of exposure and so forth, but I think

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Speaker 1: it's because the yields. Yields dropped. So I hear what

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Speaker 1: you said. I agree with that, except the correlation of

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Speaker 1: stock price performance remains uh correlated to that yield curve,

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Speaker 1: and perhaps at all White Will Andrew, you gonna stick

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Speaker 1: with us on a day we go coming out, Andre

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Speaker 1: slimming and markin stand making. There are days where you

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Speaker 1: get the wrong guest, and then, Paul, there are days

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Speaker 1: where not only do you get the right guest, but

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Speaker 1: the right guest at the right moment. We are waiting

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Speaker 1: Mr Stoltenberg at NATO. We will follow those headlines, but

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Speaker 1: far more important. Admiral Stevidis joins us this morning. James Dravidis,

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Speaker 1: of course, Supreme Commander NATO, UH with immense enable experience.

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Speaker 1: A number of reports this morning Admiral of Ukraine striking

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Speaker 1: a Russian navy and one of the videos I saw

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Speaker 1: not official, I need to be extra careful here. It

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Speaker 1: was almost a mini Pearl Harbor with Halsey going out

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Speaker 1: to see and that the missile came in hit a

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Speaker 1: boat and or an AMMO dump, and of course the

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Speaker 1: other ships immediately go out to sea. Is Halsey smart

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Speaker 1: enough to do at Pearl Harbor? Tell us what that

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Speaker 1: moment is like when out of nowhere there's a missile attack,

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Speaker 1: a ship under fire. What do the other ships do? Tom?

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Speaker 1: This is very reminiscent of Pearl Harbor, of course. And

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Speaker 1: December seven, a day that living in for me, Japanese

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Speaker 1: attack and our entire battleship fleet gets knocked out. But

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Speaker 1: as you point out, the carriers were out to see

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Speaker 1: and they came back and saved the U. S. Navy

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Speaker 1: at the Battle of Midway about six months later. So

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Speaker 1: let's hope it turns out that way. For our Ukrainian friends, Um,

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Speaker 1: they know these water as well. They have a competent navy.

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Speaker 1: I visited many times the Ukrainian Navy. It operates out

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Speaker 1: of Crimea, and they will continue to fight and fight

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Speaker 1: hard against these Russians. How understaffed is the Russian navy.

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Speaker 1: We we have lots of reports of the military, but

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Speaker 1: tell us is the staffing of the Russian navy per

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Speaker 1: perhaps as fragile as we've seen in reports of the army.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's not tom I wish it were, but

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Speaker 1: the Russian navy. Because ships are such unitary objects. They

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Speaker 1: bring their own logistics, they bring their own medical they

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Speaker 1: bring their own power, heat and light. Also, the Russian

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Speaker 1: Navy has higher numbers of professional soldiers and the army

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Speaker 1: does so. As much as I wish I could tell you,

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Speaker 1: the Russian Navy is on the perfect collapse like the

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Speaker 1: Russian army appears to be. That will not be the case.

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Speaker 1: So adn't let's talk about the Russian army. Are you

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Speaker 1: as surprised as a lot of other folks were how

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Speaker 1: ineffective the Russian army was here as we entered the

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Speaker 1: second month of this invasion. I was, I think all

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Speaker 1: of us watched the spending that Vladimir Putin's Russia put

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Speaker 1: into their armed forces and into their army. We watched

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Speaker 1: the training that they did, We watched their performance in Syria.

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Speaker 1: Admittedly small scale, and we thought they would simply be better.

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Speaker 1: But what what has failed them is bad generalship. You know,

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Speaker 1: admirals love to criticize general so I'm gonna do it.

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Speaker 1: Just really bad planning by the general's too many axis

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Speaker 1: diluted the forces. As Tom and I were just talking about,

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Speaker 1: too many conscripts in that tranche of two hundred thousand troops.

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Speaker 1: And finally, massive corruption has clearly occurred here because what

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Plutin thought he was buying for all of those

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Speaker 1: defense increases has not shown up on the battlefield. Big problems. Admiral,

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Speaker 1: given your experience, how do you think this plays out?

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Speaker 1: Is this going to be a long siege? If you

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Speaker 1: will have some of the key cities of Ukraine is there?

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Speaker 1: How do you see this playing out over the next

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Speaker 1: several weeks months? And I don't know how much longer.

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Speaker 1: Plan A was blitzkrieg decapitated Zelenski take over the country.

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Speaker 1: That's clearly failed completely. Planned B is to terrorize the population,

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Speaker 1: pound cities into submission with lawn fires and try and

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Speaker 1: negotiate an agreement. I think that Plan B is probably

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Speaker 1: the best chance Putin has of getting out of this.

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Speaker 1: In one piece and a deal could look like he

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Speaker 1: gains control of the Russian speaking call it of the country.

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Speaker 1: The rest of the country sails on under Zelinsky. I

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Speaker 1: think that's how this comes out in about two months,

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Speaker 1: three months maybe how musta Vida's headline is just coming out.

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Speaker 1: And of course this is a joint declaration after summit

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Speaker 1: meeting of NATAL leaders they say they will prepare for

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Speaker 1: chemical nuclear threat. I can't imagine I've ever seen a

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Speaker 1: headline like that, back perhaps the World War two, and

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Speaker 1: indeed back to the tragedy of World War One? What

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Speaker 1: is the stereotype of chemical warfare that we get wrong?

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Speaker 1: We have black and white movies of World War One,

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Speaker 1: the winds, the mustard gas, that's ancient. What's the stereotype

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Speaker 1: most fail at We failed to understand how capably these

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Speaker 1: nerve agents in particular can be used in very direct ways,

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Speaker 1: and they have the ability to to confine them so

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Speaker 1: that you're not putting up massive clouds of mustard gas

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Speaker 1: over a battlefield and tom Secondly, um, and this is

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Speaker 1: good news. There are much more capabilities to respond today

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Speaker 1: to chemical types of attacks. So it's a mixed picture.

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Speaker 1: It's not a sober bullet for lack of Putin. We

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Speaker 1: have a lot of counters to it, and that's what

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Speaker 1: the US and NATO will be putting in place in

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Speaker 1: order to try and stay one step ahead of Putin.

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Speaker 1: James Sevitas, he has an author, folks. I can't say

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Speaker 1: enough about the immediacy in the clear moment of his

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Speaker 1: wonderful two thousand thirty four. Yes, on the Pacific room

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Speaker 1: in China, but somehow more immediate today. Two thousand thirty

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Speaker 1: four is a wonderful read. Right now with a very

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Speaker 1: important note. This morning at her Chatham House, Leslie Innjabury

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Speaker 1: joins us Dr. Vinjabury's director of US and America's Program

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Speaker 1: for the London Shop. Leslie, you've got that a word

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Speaker 1: in your report. I've been talking all morning about the

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Speaker 1: linkage of war to diplomacy. Tell me how diplomacy and

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Speaker 1: war can be linked through attrition. Well, the attrition, I

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Speaker 1: think is the really concerning part here. We've clearly moved

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Speaker 1: into a war that Russia has fallen, fall short, far

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Speaker 1: short of its own expectations of the world's expectations, and

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Speaker 1: is resorting to brutality. War crimes, as they've been called

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Speaker 1: and likely are certainly looked like they are UM and

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Speaker 1: that means a war of attrition. The diplomacy carries on

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Speaker 1: and alongside those very coercive measures, the sanctions, and now

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Speaker 1: as you look at Biden's trip to Europe, he's really

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Speaker 1: focused very much on ensuring that Western unity. You know,

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Speaker 1: the diplomacy is not only um with Russia on the

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Speaker 1: question of Ukraine, but it's amongst the European partners. It's

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Speaker 1: very much. I think one of the key points right

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Speaker 1: now for Biden and Jake Sullivan noticed this is ensuring

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Speaker 1: that you gure Up stays on board putting pressure on China.

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Speaker 1: That's an absolutely critical factor in this diploma. Is there

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Speaker 1: a lesson of linking present attrition towards chemical weapons that

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Speaker 1: we can learn from Syria and the Russian experience there.

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Speaker 1: I think that the concern about the chemical weapons use

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Speaker 1: in Syria is of course that the US doesn't want

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Speaker 1: to say that it will do something and not follow through.

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Speaker 1: Obama's red line is very well known. We won't see

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Speaker 1: a red line of that kind drawn, although the clear

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Speaker 1: warnings that the chemical weapons use shouldn't be tolerated. That

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Speaker 1: there's a band that most countries around the world have

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Speaker 1: signed up to we know this, and there will be

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Speaker 1: talks now. I think everybody's waiting to see what the

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Speaker 1: US and Europe will say. What will they do? Should

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Speaker 1: Assad resort to the use should should assade, should um

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Speaker 1: Putent resort to the use of chemical weapons? Well, Leslie,

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Speaker 1: we've talked about attrition, let's also talk about the theory

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Speaker 1: of deterrence. I'm taking it back to my foreign affairs

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Speaker 1: classes at the University of Virginia. I mean, do we

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Speaker 1: need to rethink deterrence if Vladimir Putin has proven time

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Speaker 1: and again that he is not able to be deterred. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that from NATO's perspective, from the US perspective,

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Speaker 1: the clear deterrent threat has been um with respect to NATO,

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Speaker 1: as opposed to with respect to Ukraine. The red line

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Speaker 1: is that there will be a very significant punishment inflicted

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Speaker 1: should this war involve direct engagement with NATO. That is

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Speaker 1: that the strongest line. As some people argue that deterrence

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Speaker 1: has failed with respect to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I

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Speaker 1: think that that is clear, but there's they're still significant

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Speaker 1: measures being put in place. But ultimately, yes, um it's

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Speaker 1: been it's been virtually impossible to stop Putin from from

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Speaker 1: just intense acts of brutality on the Ukrainian people, because

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Speaker 1: it's clear that that has been absolutely critical to him.

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Speaker 1: But you know, from a clear deterrence perspective, that hasn't

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Speaker 1: been to NATO's number one goal. We can debate whether

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Speaker 1: it should have been. Yeah. Well, and I would also

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Speaker 1: love to debate whether warning of consequences means anything if

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Speaker 1: you don't actually detail what those consequences would be, Leslie.

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Speaker 1: But I also want to mention China because we heard

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Speaker 1: from the Chinese ambassador to the US today talking about

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Speaker 1: the friendship and no limits friendship between Beijing and Moscow.

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Speaker 1: He said, well, it doesn't have limits, there is a

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Speaker 1: bottom line. How are you thinking about China's role here? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think this is absolutely critical. I mean there are

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Speaker 1: many many dimensions to this. The most obvious and direct

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Speaker 1: one is whether China continues to assist Russia in it's

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Speaker 1: in subverting the tremendous sanctions package. The big question on

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Speaker 1: the table is whether or not it will respond to

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Speaker 1: Russia's request for military equipment. And this is what Biden

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Speaker 1: is really working with Europe to shore up a very

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Speaker 1: hard line of the sanctions that China would face were

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Speaker 1: to do that. But I think we also have a

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Speaker 1: third a question which is sort of a first first

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Speaker 1: order question, which is about global order going forward. The

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Speaker 1: UN Security Council is now facing a grave crisis where

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Speaker 1: one of its permanent members has openly openly violated the

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Speaker 1: most fundamental norm in the charter, where China isn't really

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Speaker 1: calling that out. Also hold to permanent a seat on

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Speaker 1: the Security Council or any other number of global governance

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Speaker 1: mechanisms that are critical to solving the big problems of

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Speaker 1: climate of the global economy depend on China. And if

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Speaker 1: China doesn't demonstrate some willingness to to cooperate and and

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Speaker 1: bringing this conflict to a close rapidly, then I think

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Speaker 1: it's going to make it just much more difficult to

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Speaker 1: solve those much broader questions which are affecting people across

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, across Africa, with oil prices, with energy

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Speaker 1: more broadly, and of course with with Gram's um and commodities. Leslie,

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Speaker 1: thank you as always for your perspective. Let's leave in

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Speaker 1: Jamori of Channel House Stephen Stanley with us now as

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Speaker 1: Mike McKee mentions with some wisdom, Stephen, I've got to

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Speaker 1: rip up the strip script and go to the current

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Speaker 1: account deficit. Uh, the current account balance rather a big deficit,

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Speaker 1: which clearly indicates something back to two thousand six, two

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Speaker 1: thousand seven, What is the significance of our current account balance?

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Speaker 1: Literally off a cliff. Yeah, No, it's it's a function

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Speaker 1: of very strong demand, demand that we can't satisfy entirely

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Speaker 1: at home, and so we're having to, uh, we're having

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Speaker 1: to import a lot of stuff, both for consumers and

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Speaker 1: for businesses. And that's been the case really since we

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Speaker 1: got over the lockdowns. The trade depths of the current

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Speaker 1: account depths and has been ballooning since then. If demand

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Speaker 1: is there, is the gloom Google the gloom crew just

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Speaker 1: flat out wrong. And the economy is going to be

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Speaker 1: resilient because the consumer is there. Yeah, I think that

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Speaker 1: the economy is going to be resilient, certainly for for

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Speaker 1: a time. I mean, you look at the at the

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Speaker 1: household balance sheet. Households are sitting on a few trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars in extra cash that they accumulated during the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Wealth um is up huge. On the business side, corporate

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Speaker 1: profits have made record high. So businesses are pretty flush

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Speaker 1: as well. Um. So, you know, people talk about the

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Speaker 1: fit tightening us into a recession, and you know that

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Speaker 1: there is a point at which that could happen, but

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Speaker 1: it's certain we're certainly nowhere near that in terms of

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Speaker 1: the level of rates where we are now or where

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Speaker 1: we're likely to be UM over the balance of this year.

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Speaker 1: For sure. The city came out with a massive kill

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Speaker 1: this morning statement. I don't love your response to it.

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Speaker 1: Your reaction. They set the median dealt for appropriate policy

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Speaker 1: right to the end. It's two in the June s

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Speaker 1: e P could not a base case. It may rise

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Speaker 1: to around three, from one to two. How far do

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Speaker 1: you think that wanted to push it this year is

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Speaker 1: highs three? Well, I mean, look, things could change. I

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Speaker 1: mean obviously the um the dynamic has changed quite a lot,

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Speaker 1: and what the Fed is anticipating has changed with every

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Speaker 1: quarterly new set of projections. But I would say, if

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Speaker 1: you listen carefully to what they're saying now, it seems

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Speaker 1: like we've got a two phase tightening cycle on our hands.

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Speaker 1: Phase one is just getting back to neutral, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of the folks that have spoken this week has

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Speaker 1: suggested they like to get back to somewhere close to

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Speaker 1: neutral by the end of this year, and then next

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Speaker 1: year would be about taking policy into at least modestly

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Speaker 1: restrictive territory. So you know, I think most people on

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Speaker 1: the FED think that neutral is two and a quarter

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Speaker 1: to two and a half UM and that's kind of

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Speaker 1: where I'm right at the moment. That's where I'm pegging

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Speaker 1: us to get to by the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Can I got through scenario with you a potential wander

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Speaker 1: and trying to understand whether you understand the reaction function

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Speaker 1: of this FED. If they came across Q and the

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Speaker 1: market decided to tell them when neutralis go away, and

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Speaker 1: we had that kind of big move and credit again

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Speaker 1: an inflation wasn't coming down, Stephen, what would they do well?

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's an interesting question. I would say. At

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Speaker 1: this point, it sounds pretty clear that inflation is job

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Speaker 1: one for the FED, and they feel that they have

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Speaker 1: an urgent need to get inflation under control. I think

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Speaker 1: they feel that time is ticking and the longer we

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Speaker 1: go with high inflation, the more likely it is to

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Speaker 1: get embedded in the expectations of longer term expectations of

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Speaker 1: consumers and businesses. Um. So you know, I think that's

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Speaker 1: the urgent task right now is to get inflation down

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Speaker 1: and um, you know, and they certainly don't want to

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Speaker 1: cause a recession, but UM, I think if if it's

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Speaker 1: necessary to slow the economy to get inflation down, it

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Speaker 1: seems like they would be willing to do so at

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Speaker 1: this point. And what role does the balance sheet play

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Speaker 1: in that effort? Stephen? We heard from Jim Bollard, who

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Speaker 1: also wants three percent by the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Thinks the neutral rate though is actually around two percent,

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Speaker 1: but he was saying it's going to be passive runoff.

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Speaker 1: Can the FED stick with passivity here? I think the

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Speaker 1: FED believes that the balance sheet is something that kind

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Speaker 1: of runs in the background. I mean, you look at

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Speaker 1: it now and clearly there's the balance sheet is very large,

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Speaker 1: and there's a tremendous amount of access equity in the system,

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Speaker 1: but it just kind of slashes around. We get, you know,

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Speaker 1: one point eight trillion dollars in the in the getting

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Speaker 1: put back to the Fed in the overnight reverse RP

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Speaker 1: program uh most days uh lately, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: they can take out one point eight trillion and maybe

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Speaker 1: do very little in terms of economic impact because they're

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Speaker 1: just draining the money that's getting put back to them. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: I think their view is that as long as they're

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Speaker 1: shrinking the balance sheet over time, UM, that they can

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Speaker 1: manage whatever fall out comes from that with the various

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Speaker 1: tools and rates that they have UM. On the money

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Speaker 1: market front. In terms of managing fallout, though, the narrative

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Speaker 1: is that monetary policy is always going to operate with

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Speaker 1: a lag. That will be true in terms of raining

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Speaker 1: and raining raining in inflation, but on the growth side,

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Speaker 1: by the time you actually potentially could start seeing an

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Speaker 1: impact on growth, is it going to be too late

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Speaker 1: in policy? Too far gone? Well, you know that's always

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Speaker 1: the classic thing is that FED goes too far and

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Speaker 1: waits too long. I mean we've certainly seen it on

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Speaker 1: the on the easy side over the last year, where

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Speaker 1: the Fed was just too slow to get going UM.

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Speaker 1: And you know, another classic mistake that the FED has

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Speaker 1: made at times is going too far and kind of

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Speaker 1: overstaying the tight welcome again though, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: if neutral is truly in that tune a quarter to

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Speaker 1: two and a half range, UM, we've got a pretty

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Speaker 1: far way to go to get to the even just

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Speaker 1: to get there, and then you know, modestly restrictive policy

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Speaker 1: in my view, you know, seventy five basis points above

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Speaker 1: neutral is not likely to derail the economy overnight. So um, yes,

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Speaker 1: there in theory, there is a level of rates that

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Speaker 1: would um kind of slam the brakes on the economy,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's very far from where we are

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Speaker 1: today and likely above you know where markets are expecting

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Speaker 1: the Fed to go at the moment, Stephen Stanley, there

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Speaker 1: FAM has payphon Stephen, thank you an important interview on

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Speaker 1: something that is receding into the history books, and that

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Speaker 1: is COVID Stephan Bonzell with Eli Lillian Belgium. And Thenando

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Speaker 1: is extraordinary performance and m R n A at Maderna

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Speaker 1: is one of the heroes of the moment. And the

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Speaker 1: chief executive Officer joins us this morning, Stefan, are you

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Speaker 1: worried about a new variant of amicron? So first of all,

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Speaker 1: thank you for having me and thank you for the

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Speaker 1: kind of worlds. I'm not losing sleep on it. As

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Speaker 1: I've said before, I think there's an eighty percent chance

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Speaker 1: that the barrens that we're gonna see in the future

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Speaker 1: are manageable from a severity stant point and vaccine protection.

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Speaker 1: But I think we should always be very cautious because

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Speaker 1: there's a twenty percent chance that something happens in some

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Speaker 1: of the new variant that is very virulent, like if

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Speaker 1: you remember Delta came after alphabety was more virulent Delta

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Speaker 1: and Alpha. So we have to be cautious. And we're

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Speaker 1: saying ready as a company to be able to update

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Speaker 1: the vaccine as fast as we can if needed. In America,

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Speaker 1: we have such a low usage of the booster. Now

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Speaker 1: we're talking with you about the success of under six

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Speaker 1: years old treatment and such. Tell us what we need

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Speaker 1: to do to get a worldwide booster program going. What

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Speaker 1: is the next step in a COVID that, in our

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Speaker 1: minds maskless is receding. Yeah, I think people have to

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Speaker 1: be careful, especially based on the risk. You know, I

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Speaker 1: have daughters at the eighteen and nineteen know they've got vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: Do we need to get boosted every year? Maybe not,

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Speaker 1: We don't know yet. We need to look at the data.

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Speaker 1: But you know my parents that in the seventies and

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Speaker 1: eighties need to be protected most probably once a year

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Speaker 1: with a booster like we do we flu because the

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Speaker 1: issue as you get older, immune system is not as

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Speaker 1: strong like people that have you know, cancer or disease,

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Speaker 1: and those are the people we need to be very

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Speaker 1: careful about. Well, Mr bond Cell, you didn't just apply, though,

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Speaker 1: for a fourth booster shot for older people. You applied

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Speaker 1: for all adults. What was the thinking behind that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's to give a flexibility to be a regulator to

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Speaker 1: adapt to their needs. Let's not forget that there are

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Speaker 1: people unfortunately that ald that have cancer or thirty five ye,

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Speaker 1: all of them organ transplant and so we applied dating

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Speaker 1: at the above. So in a dialogue with the f

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Speaker 1: D and regulators around the world, we can give them

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Speaker 1: all the twols and all the data so we can

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Speaker 1: make the right decision country by country. All right, And

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Speaker 1: while we're having a conversation about booster shots, potentially fourth

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Speaker 1: shots for adults, we also have to talk about the

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Speaker 1: under six year olds, which Tom King mentioned. You released

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Speaker 1: the data yesterday on the efficacy a looking for FDA

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Speaker 1: clearance on what timeline do you expect that? So I

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Speaker 1: think potentially this authorization of six months to six years

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Speaker 1: could happen faster in the UK, Europe, Canada and over

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Speaker 1: countries for the FDA might take a bit of time.

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Speaker 1: As you might know, the vaccine is not currently a

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Speaker 1: proved fal teen ages in the US and so we

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Speaker 1: have to work with them to get all that age card.

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Speaker 1: But we are in constant dialogue with the FDN, so

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Speaker 1: we're going to do our best with them to get

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Speaker 1: this as fast as we can to parents. But also

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Speaker 1: we have to, of course to be very careful with safety,

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Speaker 1: which is a number one priority when you talk about vaccines, Stephen,

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Speaker 1: what is so important here is the outrageous success of

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Speaker 1: m r NA in the timeline that you and your

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Speaker 1: good competitors advisor were under. What does mr NA do next?

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Speaker 1: What is the next step after the stunning success you've achieved.

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Speaker 1: So what we want to do is we want to

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Speaker 1: have people not being sick, hospitalized or dying from respiratory virus.

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Speaker 1: There around ten respiratory virus that lead to disease and hospitalization,

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Speaker 1: and today there's only vaccine against flu. As you know,

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Speaker 1: most of them don't work very well. We're announced today

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Speaker 1: very good data on our first generation of flu shot,

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Speaker 1: which we want to combine into a single shot covid

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Speaker 1: booster FLU booster in only one shot. We also have

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Speaker 1: I V, which is another respiratory virus that is in

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Speaker 1: phase three right now. We're also announcing this week that

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Speaker 1: will combine covid and flu and V booster, so we

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Speaker 1: make it very easy for people. The idea will be

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Speaker 1: you get a shot a year and you are you're

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Speaker 1: well protected, and what are the odds that an m

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Speaker 1: R and a FLU shot will be superior? So I

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Speaker 1: think over time it is probably high what we're gonna

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Speaker 1: do with the current product. And we've showing today that

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Speaker 1: we have the possibility for the most important strain of flu,

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Speaker 1: which influence the air, eating from hospitalation or love of

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Speaker 1: antibody is higher. We have to demonstrate it in the

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Speaker 1: last study in the phase free, but it smells pretty good.

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Speaker 1: And that's our first generation of flu. We were able

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Speaker 1: to add more components to get the efficacy way higher.

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Speaker 1: So give us a capitation of product that I'm taking

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Speaker 1: compoliose no tenors else, and I believe we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: a very high if you can see food shot on

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Speaker 1: the market. Stevan, thank you so much for joining us today,

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Speaker 1: Mr bun So. Of course, with Moderna and the great

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Speaker 1: success of their m RNA vaccine. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from

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00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: seven to ten AMI Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on

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00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,960
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00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene in this he is Bloomer