Speaker 1: Good morning.
Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
Speaker 2: stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: We begin with geopolitics and US China relations. That is
Speaker 3: the focus as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attends G twenty
Speaker 3: meetings in India, and as Climate Voyd John Carey holds
Speaker 3: talks in Beijing. Bloomberg Stephen Engel has the latest from
Speaker 3: Hong Kong.
Speaker 4: This is another opportunity to continue this diplomatic push that
Speaker 4: we've seen obviously from the cabinet members of the Biden administration.
Speaker 4: You've had Blinking go to Beijing, you had Yellen go
Speaker 4: to Beijing. Yellen also, of course, keep in mind, went
Speaker 4: to Japan G sevens or her engagement with the Asia
Speaker 4: Pacific is intensifying. This will be her third trip to
Speaker 4: India in the last nine months. You know, she says
Speaker 4: India is an indispensable partner in the Biden administration policy
Speaker 4: of friendshoring and securing supply chains and diversifying away perhaps
Speaker 4: from over reliance on China. But the main story again
Speaker 4: really with Kerrie and Beijing and Yellen in GEN twenty
Speaker 4: is really to find ways, and these are her words,
Speaker 4: to find ways to further de escalate tensions with China.
Speaker 2: And Bloomberg Steven Angel reporting from Hong Kong. We've already
Speaker 2: heard from Janet Yellen at those G twenty meetings. The
Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary says it's too early to eliminate Trump era
Speaker 2: tariffs on China.
Speaker 5: Perhaps over time this is an area where we could
Speaker 5: make progress, but I would say it's premature to use
Speaker 5: this as an area for de escalation, at least at
Speaker 5: this time.
Speaker 2: Yellen says she wants to work with China on areas
Speaker 2: of mutual interest, including a dead restructuring for poorer countries.
Speaker 3: China's economy is also in focus this morning, Karen, thanks
Speaker 3: to some disappointing data overnight. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian
Speaker 3: Curtis has the details. From Hong Kong.
Speaker 6: GDP grew six point three percent from a year ago,
Speaker 6: weaker than the forecast of seven point one percent. The
Speaker 6: figures were distorted as last year, Shanghai and other areas
Speaker 6: were in lockdown. Sequentially, GDP was up just zero point
Speaker 6: eight percent from the first quarter. In the monthly data,
Speaker 6: June retail sales advancing three point one percent, lower than forecast. However,
Speaker 6: a factory output was a relative bright spot, gaining four
Speaker 6: point four percent and beating estimates. More stimulus might be coming,
Speaker 6: but today the BBOC stood pat in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis,
Speaker 6: Bloomberg day Break.
Speaker 2: All right, Brian, thanks well. Turning to the US economy,
Speaker 2: there will be no news from the Fed this week.
Speaker 2: Central bankers are in a quiet period until next week's
Speaker 2: policy decision. Despite last week's positive inflation data, former FED
Speaker 2: Vice Chairman Richard Clarina still expects a quarter point rate hike.
Speaker 7: Quite frankly, the Fed several times in the last several years,
Speaker 7: including when I was there, got burned when they looked
Speaker 7: at data that was improving and extrapolated that. So I
Speaker 7: think this committee will certainly be wary of declaring mission
Speaker 7: accomplished and victory, but clearly they'd rather have data like
Speaker 7: last weeks than some of the numbers we were getting
Speaker 7: earlier in the year.
Speaker 2: And former Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarina, who is now
Speaker 2: a Global Economic advisor at Pimco, tells US market bets
Speaker 2: on a ray cut next March makes sense.
Speaker 3: On the earnings Frontcaren, It'll be another busy week. JP
Speaker 3: Morgan Chase, Wells, Fargo and City Group posted strong results
Speaker 3: on Friday. Now we get word from the other big banks.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has more.
Speaker 8: More financials will be reporting this week, including Goldman, Sachs, Morgan, Stanley,
Speaker 8: and Bank of America. The flood of earnings reports come
Speaker 8: amid questions about whether earnings expectations justify the outlook for stocks.
Speaker 8: Laura Cooper is senior investment strategist at black Rock International.
Speaker 2: We really have seen that better than expected earnings backdrop
Speaker 2: be a key tailwind for equity markets, and I struggle
Speaker 2: to see that trend persisting in the second half of
Speaker 2: the year.
Speaker 8: This week, we'll also be hearing from Railroads, CSX, UAL, IBM,
Speaker 8: Johnson and Johnson, Lockey, Martin, Netflix, and Tesla in New York.
Speaker 8: Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 2: All right, Charlie, thank you well. We turn to politics
Speaker 2: now and the ban of the Republican presidential nomination. Florida
Speaker 2: Governor Ronda Santis is hitting the reset button on his campaign.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Amy Morris repports from our ninety nine to one
Speaker 2: newsroom in Washington.
Speaker 9: While desandis looked to many like the guy who could
Speaker 9: defeat Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. His campaign did
Speaker 9: not expect how Trump's two indictments would energize his baits.
Speaker 9: Seven weeks into Dessanta's official launch for the White House,
Speaker 9: he's fired staffers, changed his media strategy, and streamlined his
Speaker 9: travel schedule. Sources tell Bloomberg that at this point, no
Speaker 9: campaign staffers should assume that their job is safe. Next,
Speaker 9: his first major TV interview with a non conservative outlet CNN,
Speaker 9: is set for tomorrow in Washington. I Mamy Morris, Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: Daybreak, Okaymie, thanks being time. Another Republican candidate, Chris CHRISTI
Speaker 3: he's trying to turn the heat up on Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story.
Speaker 10: Trump says he doesn't know if he'llotown the debates. Christy
Speaker 10: says he thinks he'll be there.
Speaker 11: His ego, I think will not permit him to have
Speaker 11: a big TV show that he not on, and I
Speaker 11: think he'd be enormously frustrated sitting back at Bedminster and
Speaker 11: watching what I'm going to do to him.
Speaker 10: Over the weekend. Trump said, when he gets indicted, he's
Speaker 10: doing it for the American people.
Speaker 12: He's a liar and a coward.
Speaker 11: He's not getting indicted for anyone other than because of
Speaker 11: his own conduct.
Speaker 10: Christie's latest ads called Trump Chicken in San Francisco. I'm
Speaker 10: at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: Okay, and thank you by the way. Chris Christy made
Speaker 3: those comments on ABC's This Week. You can catch the
Speaker 3: show every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio. Man, it's sound time
Speaker 3: to take a look at some of the other stories
Speaker 3: making news in New York and around the world with
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 12: Good morning, Nathan. New York Governor Canthy Okle said heir
Speaker 12: quality health advisories are being issued for today for the
Speaker 12: entire state. Hokele says residents with breathing issues, the very
Speaker 12: young and old should stay inside today due to drifting
Speaker 12: smoke from Canada's wildfires. Governor Hokele spoke during a news
Speaker 12: conference Sunday.
Speaker 7: It's likely to be healthy for sensitive groups.
Speaker 6: As our orange category again normal is zero to fifty,
Speaker 6: We're expecting.
Speaker 7: Tomorrow to be one hundred to one hundred and fifty
Speaker 7: on the air Quality Index.
Speaker 12: The smoke is expected to cause the air quality index
Speaker 12: to reach levels upstate that are unhealthy for all people.
Speaker 12: A cluster of severe thunderstorms pound at the nation's northeast
Speaker 12: over the weekend unleashed heavy flooding in Pennsylvania and halted
Speaker 12: operations at several airports. At least five people died and
Speaker 12: two children were still missing after floods ripped through Bucks County, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 12: north of Philadelphia. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Speaker 13: On behalf of more than thirteen million Pennsylvanians. I want
Speaker 13: Bucks County to know that we are here with you,
Speaker 13: we are praying with you, and we will continue to
Speaker 13: do everything in our power to lift you up.
Speaker 12: Governor Shapiro says. It is a devastating blow to the community.
Speaker 12: Fourteen states are under heat watches and warnings today. In Arizona,
Speaker 12: temper have been one hundred and ten degrees or more
Speaker 12: for seventeen straight days. This woman brought her young child
Speaker 12: to a water park in Phoenix to cool off.
Speaker 2: We had in years where it's been wet and cooler,
Speaker 2: but overall it's just spun hotter and hotter over time.
Speaker 12: El Paso, Texas has seen triple digit temperatures for thirty
Speaker 12: consecutive days. Traffic on a key bridge connecting Crimea to
Speaker 12: Russia's mainland has been halted after reports of explosions that
Speaker 12: Crimean officials say were from a Ukrainian attack. The bridge
Speaker 12: was damaged in October by a truck bomb and required
Speaker 12: months of repairs before resuming full service. In this tragic
Speaker 12: news finally about a New York CBS to meteorologist Elise
Speaker 12: Finch died suddenly over the weekend. Finch was just on
Speaker 12: the air a day or two before her Heartbroken colleagues
Speaker 12: called her a gifted and consummate professional. Her cause of
Speaker 12: death has not been determined. Elise Finch was fifty one
Speaker 12: global news twenty four hours day, powered by more than
Speaker 12: twenty seven hundred journalist analysts in over one hundred and
Speaker 12: twenty countries. I'm mich Labar. This is Bloomberg, Nathan.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update
Speaker 3: with John Stanshauer.
Speaker 14: All right, Nathan, next tore innings for the Mets and Yankees.
Speaker 14: The Mets at City Field waited through a four hour
Speaker 14: rain delay, and then their bats were again quiet, but
Speaker 14: Luis Ki or May with a base hit tenth Inny
Speaker 14: to beat the Dodgers two to one, any the Mets
Speaker 14: four game losing streak. In the three games with La
Speaker 14: they only scored three runs. Meanwhile, dreadful loss for the
Speaker 14: Yankees in Denver. They led three to one, then trailed
Speaker 14: five to three as C. J. Crohn hit an eighth
Speaker 14: inning grand slam for the Rockies. Yanks were then back
Speaker 14: ahead seven to five in the eleventh Colorado with a
Speaker 14: two run homer to tie the game in a solo
Speaker 14: shot to win eight to seven. Yankee bullpen, which had
Speaker 14: been a strength, has an eighty RA in the last
Speaker 14: eight games. The Yankees are tied for last place and
Speaker 14: now they have to deal with sho heey Otani. They
Speaker 14: visit the Angels tonight. Are the Giants gonna sign Saquon
Speaker 14: Barkley to a long term deal before we're the four
Speaker 14: o'clock today deadline? And if not, does he agree to
Speaker 14: play on the franchise tag er? Is he going to
Speaker 14: be a holdout? Here were the most recent comments made
Speaker 14: by Giants GM Joe Shane.
Speaker 10: How we want to build this team and allocate our
Speaker 10: resources and that's that's what it comes down to you.
Speaker 2: So again, he's a good football player. He was durable
Speaker 2: for this suit this year. He played well and you
Speaker 2: know again he's He's a guy that.
Speaker 14: We'd like to have back, the question being at what price.
Speaker 14: DeAndre Hopkins became a free agent when released by Arizona.
Speaker 14: He's going to sign with Tennessee and Wimbledon. The twenty
Speaker 14: year old Spaniard Carlos Alcarez, playing a grass court tournament
Speaker 14: for only the fourth time, prevailed in five sets over
Speaker 14: Novak Djokovic was going for his twenty fourth Grand Slam title,
Speaker 14: fifth in a row at Wimbledon. Alcarez the third youngest
Speaker 14: to win in the Open era. And what a weekend
Speaker 14: on the golf course for Steph Curry at the celebrity
Speaker 14: event in Lake Tahoe, a hole in one Saturday and
Speaker 14: then on the last hole in eagle putt to win
Speaker 14: the tournament. John Stashiellward Bloomberg.
Speaker 15: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San
Speaker 15: Francisco to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias, Exam, the Bloomberg
Speaker 15: Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. More signs of slow down
Speaker 3: in China's economy weighing on global markets this morning, but
Speaker 3: for US investors, the focus may be on the earnings
Speaker 3: outlook as the Federal Reserve goes quiet before its next
Speaker 3: policy decision coming up a week from Wednesday. So let's
Speaker 3: get you set for this trading week ahead. We're joined
Speaker 3: now by Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University of
Speaker 3: Akron Indowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of the
Speaker 3: Gartman Letter. Dennis, I've really been waiting to get your
Speaker 3: take on what this Fed could do next. After the
Speaker 3: positive reads we've gotten on inflation, there's still this expectation
Speaker 3: that we're going to get a rate hike at the
Speaker 3: end of this month. But is it going to be
Speaker 3: one and done? Should it be one and done?
Speaker 16: It's probably going to be one and done. There's no
Speaker 16: question that they will raise the overnight that funds righted
Speaker 16: by twenty five basis points when they meet next week.
Speaker 16: That's absolutely beyond question. They've made it abundantly clear that
Speaker 16: will happen, whether they go another twenty five basis points
Speaker 16: that the September meeting is open for debate. I have
Speaker 16: my doubts as to whether they shall or not I
Speaker 16: think that five and a quarter to five and a
Speaker 16: half is probably as high as the terminal rate shall go.
Speaker 16: And my guess is that we'll see probably some relatively
Speaker 16: weak employment numbers coming out over the course of the
Speaker 16: next thirty to sixty days. That'll be enough to keep
Speaker 16: the seat from moving in September, but it will be
Speaker 16: a long time, a very long time, probably late twenty
Speaker 16: twenty four before the Seat begins their policy of allowing
Speaker 16: the overnight SAD funds right to reduce. Now that's up
Speaker 16: twenty five basis points at the next meeting, and that
Speaker 16: may well be the end of it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've heard that message from you for quite some
Speaker 3: time here that this market isn't pricing in the rate
Speaker 3: cuts the way you think they should.
Speaker 8: Why is that?
Speaker 3: Why do you think the market at this point is
Speaker 3: of fighting back against this idea that higher or that
Speaker 3: higher for longer longer isn't going to mean what the
Speaker 3: Fed is kind of indicated that it's going.
Speaker 16: To It's a very good question, and it seems to
Speaker 16: be beyond my ken. I've when the FED began the
Speaker 16: policy of raising rates that almost two years ago, I
Speaker 16: said at that time that rates are going to go
Speaker 16: a lot higher, demonstrably a lot higher. And I actually
Speaker 16: said at the time that we'd probably see the FED
Speaker 16: funds rate get to four and a half or five
Speaker 16: percent before it was done, which seemed to be contrary
Speaker 16: to almost what anybody who had had anticipated. And I've
Speaker 16: always said that when the FED begins the policy of
Speaker 16: changing rates from higher, from lower to higher, or from
Speaker 16: higher to lower, they take rates demonstrably farther and much
Speaker 16: for a much longer period of time than anybody wants
Speaker 16: to anticipate. Here we are two years later, and it's
Speaker 16: going to be at least another year before we before
Speaker 16: the FED begins the policy of allowing rates to decline.
Speaker 16: Why they've been why the market has wanted to anticipate
Speaker 16: a quick return to easier FED policy is really quite
Speaker 16: beyond me, and it has made no historical sense whatsoever,
Speaker 16: and it has made no economic sense. It's caught me
Speaker 16: off guard. I'll be blunt.
Speaker 3: What's the trajectory for commodities right now? Now that we're
Speaker 3: seeing continued signs of slow down in the Chinese economy
Speaker 3: and now indications this morning that the grain deal that's
Speaker 3: kept Black Sea grain coming out of from Ukraine could
Speaker 3: be expiring now.
Speaker 16: That probably will expire, and that would be bearish for
Speaker 16: one would anticipate that the expiry of that agreement would
Speaker 16: be bearish for wheat prices, predominantly because of the importance
Speaker 16: of Ukrainian and Russian wheat to the world wheat market.
Speaker 16: But nonetheless, everybody understands that. I think that's a discounted circumstance,
Speaker 16: and it appears to me that commodity prices generally are
Speaker 16: extremely cheap relative to stock prices, which are extremely expensive.
Speaker 16: I would err upon the side of owning commodities in
Speaker 16: broad terms, owning grains, owning livestock, owning cu oil, owning copper,
Speaker 16: owning tungsten, owning the base metal. I think commodities on
Speaker 16: balance are extremely inexpensive relative to stock prices.
Speaker 3: Do you see that trend continuing even with inflationary pressures
Speaker 3: continue to ease, Yes.
Speaker 16: I think so. I think we've been under pressure as
Speaker 16: far as commodity prices have been for the past year
Speaker 16: or so. The only commodity that has actually been going
Speaker 16: from the lower left the upright has been gold prices,
Speaker 16: and they've actually been coming down for the past two months.
Speaker 16: But on balanced, wheat prices have been under pressure. Corn
Speaker 16: prices have been under extreme pressure. Soybean prices have held
Speaker 16: on their own. Pay attention to the term structure of
Speaker 16: the commodity markets. Soybeans are now inverted, Wheat is now inverted.
Speaker 16: Corn is the only commodity grain grain commodity that is
Speaker 16: not an inverted the term structure, So pay attention to
Speaker 16: the term structures, or upon the side of owning soybeans,
Speaker 16: or upon the side of owning wheat, and or upon
Speaker 16: the side of being negative or unbiased towards the corn market.
Speaker 16: What nobody seems to be paying attention to is that
Speaker 16: live stock prices have been going from the lower left
Speaker 16: to the upper right rather consistently lately, and no one's
Speaker 16: paying attention to that. And the fact that copper prices
Speaker 16: have stopped going down and have started to turn from
Speaker 16: the has started to turn upward, which I think is
Speaker 16: indicative of global economic strength rather than global economic weakness.
Speaker 16: So watch commodity prices. As I said earlier, they seem
Speaker 16: to me to be relatively cheap compared to extremely relatively
Speaker 16: expensive stock prices.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief on the
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