WEBVTT - Yellen Says China Tariffs Stay; DeSantis Shakes Up Campaign

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 2>stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 3>We begin with geopolitics and US China relations. That is

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<v Speaker 3>the focus as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attends G twenty

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<v Speaker 3>meetings in India, and as Climate Voyd John Carey holds

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<v Speaker 3>talks in Beijing. Bloomberg Stephen Engel has the latest from

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<v Speaker 3>Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 4>This is another opportunity to continue this diplomatic push that

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<v Speaker 4>we've seen obviously from the cabinet members of the Biden administration.

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<v Speaker 4>You've had Blinking go to Beijing, you had Yellen go

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<v Speaker 4>to Beijing. Yellen also, of course, keep in mind, went

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<v Speaker 4>to Japan G sevens or her engagement with the Asia

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<v Speaker 4>Pacific is intensifying. This will be her third trip to

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<v Speaker 4>India in the last nine months. You know, she says

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<v Speaker 4>India is an indispensable partner in the Biden administration policy

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<v Speaker 4>of friendshoring and securing supply chains and diversifying away perhaps

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<v Speaker 4>from over reliance on China. But the main story again

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<v Speaker 4>really with Kerrie and Beijing and Yellen in GEN twenty

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<v Speaker 4>is really to find ways, and these are her words,

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<v Speaker 4>to find ways to further de escalate tensions with China.

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<v Speaker 2>And Bloomberg Steven Angel reporting from Hong Kong. We've already

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<v Speaker 2>heard from Janet Yellen at those G twenty meetings. The

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<v Speaker 2>Treasury Secretary says it's too early to eliminate Trump era

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<v Speaker 2>tariffs on China.

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<v Speaker 5>Perhaps over time this is an area where we could

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<v Speaker 5>make progress, but I would say it's premature to use

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<v Speaker 5>this as an area for de escalation, at least at

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<v Speaker 5>this time.

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<v Speaker 2>Yellen says she wants to work with China on areas

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<v Speaker 2>of mutual interest, including a dead restructuring for poorer countries.

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<v Speaker 3>China's economy is also in focus this morning, Karen, thanks

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<v Speaker 3>to some disappointing data overnight. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian

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<v Speaker 3>Curtis has the details. From Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 6>GDP grew six point three percent from a year ago,

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<v Speaker 6>weaker than the forecast of seven point one percent. The

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<v Speaker 6>figures were distorted as last year, Shanghai and other areas

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<v Speaker 6>were in lockdown. Sequentially, GDP was up just zero point

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<v Speaker 6>eight percent from the first quarter. In the monthly data,

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<v Speaker 6>June retail sales advancing three point one percent, lower than forecast. However,

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<v Speaker 6>a factory output was a relative bright spot, gaining four

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<v Speaker 6>point four percent and beating estimates. More stimulus might be coming,

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<v Speaker 6>but today the BBOC stood pat in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis,

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<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg day Break.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Brian, thanks well. Turning to the US economy,

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<v Speaker 2>there will be no news from the Fed this week.

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<v Speaker 2>Central bankers are in a quiet period until next week's

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<v Speaker 2>policy decision. Despite last week's positive inflation data, former FED

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<v Speaker 2>Vice Chairman Richard Clarina still expects a quarter point rate hike.

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<v Speaker 7>Quite frankly, the Fed several times in the last several years,

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<v Speaker 7>including when I was there, got burned when they looked

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<v Speaker 7>at data that was improving and extrapolated that. So I

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<v Speaker 7>think this committee will certainly be wary of declaring mission

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<v Speaker 7>accomplished and victory, but clearly they'd rather have data like

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<v Speaker 7>last weeks than some of the numbers we were getting

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<v Speaker 7>earlier in the year.

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<v Speaker 2>And former Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarina, who is now

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<v Speaker 2>a Global Economic advisor at Pimco, tells US market bets

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<v Speaker 2>on a ray cut next March makes sense.

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<v Speaker 3>On the earnings Frontcaren, It'll be another busy week. JP

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<v Speaker 3>Morgan Chase, Wells, Fargo and City Group posted strong results

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<v Speaker 3>on Friday. Now we get word from the other big banks.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has more.

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<v Speaker 8>More financials will be reporting this week, including Goldman, Sachs, Morgan, Stanley,

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<v Speaker 8>and Bank of America. The flood of earnings reports come

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<v Speaker 8>amid questions about whether earnings expectations justify the outlook for stocks.

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<v Speaker 8>Laura Cooper is senior investment strategist at black Rock International.

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<v Speaker 2>We really have seen that better than expected earnings backdrop

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<v Speaker 2>be a key tailwind for equity markets, and I struggle

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<v Speaker 2>to see that trend persisting in the second half of

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<v Speaker 2>the year.

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<v Speaker 8>This week, we'll also be hearing from Railroads, CSX, UAL, IBM,

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<v Speaker 8>Johnson and Johnson, Lockey, Martin, Netflix, and Tesla in New York.

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<v Speaker 8>Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Charlie, thank you well. We turn to politics

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<v Speaker 2>now and the ban of the Republican presidential nomination. Florida

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<v Speaker 2>Governor Ronda Santis is hitting the reset button on his campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Amy Morris repports from our ninety nine to one

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<v Speaker 2>newsroom in Washington.

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<v Speaker 9>While desandis looked to many like the guy who could

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<v Speaker 9>defeat Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. His campaign did

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<v Speaker 9>not expect how Trump's two indictments would energize his baits.

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<v Speaker 9>Seven weeks into Dessanta's official launch for the White House,

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<v Speaker 9>he's fired staffers, changed his media strategy, and streamlined his

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<v Speaker 9>travel schedule. Sources tell Bloomberg that at this point, no

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<v Speaker 9>campaign staffers should assume that their job is safe. Next,

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<v Speaker 9>his first major TV interview with a non conservative outlet CNN,

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<v Speaker 9>is set for tomorrow in Washington. I Mamy Morris, Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>Daybreak, Okaymie, thanks being time. Another Republican candidate, Chris CHRISTI

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<v Speaker 3>he's trying to turn the heat up on Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story.

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<v Speaker 10>Trump says he doesn't know if he'llotown the debates. Christy

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<v Speaker 10>says he thinks he'll be there.

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<v Speaker 11>His ego, I think will not permit him to have

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<v Speaker 11>a big TV show that he not on, and I

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<v Speaker 11>think he'd be enormously frustrated sitting back at Bedminster and

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<v Speaker 11>watching what I'm going to do to him.

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<v Speaker 10>Over the weekend. Trump said, when he gets indicted, he's

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<v Speaker 10>doing it for the American people.

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<v Speaker 12>He's a liar and a coward.

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<v Speaker 11>He's not getting indicted for anyone other than because of

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<v Speaker 11>his own conduct.

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<v Speaker 10>Christie's latest ads called Trump Chicken in San Francisco. I'm

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<v Speaker 10>at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, and thank you by the way. Chris Christy made

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<v Speaker 3>those comments on ABC's This Week. You can catch the

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<v Speaker 3>show every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio. Man, it's sound time

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<v Speaker 3>to take a look at some of the other stories

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<v Speaker 3>making news in New York and around the world with

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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<v Speaker 12>Good morning, Nathan. New York Governor Canthy Okle said heir

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<v Speaker 12>quality health advisories are being issued for today for the

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<v Speaker 12>entire state. Hokele says residents with breathing issues, the very

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<v Speaker 12>young and old should stay inside today due to drifting

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<v Speaker 12>smoke from Canada's wildfires. Governor Hokele spoke during a news

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<v Speaker 12>conference Sunday.

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<v Speaker 7>It's likely to be healthy for sensitive groups.

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<v Speaker 6>As our orange category again normal is zero to fifty,

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<v Speaker 6>We're expecting.

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<v Speaker 7>Tomorrow to be one hundred to one hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 7>on the air Quality Index.

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<v Speaker 12>The smoke is expected to cause the air quality index

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<v Speaker 12>to reach levels upstate that are unhealthy for all people.

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<v Speaker 12>A cluster of severe thunderstorms pound at the nation's northeast

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<v Speaker 12>over the weekend unleashed heavy flooding in Pennsylvania and halted

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<v Speaker 12>operations at several airports. At least five people died and

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<v Speaker 12>two children were still missing after floods ripped through Bucks County, Pennsylvania,

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<v Speaker 12>north of Philadelphia. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

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<v Speaker 13>On behalf of more than thirteen million Pennsylvanians. I want

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<v Speaker 13>Bucks County to know that we are here with you,

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<v Speaker 13>we are praying with you, and we will continue to

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<v Speaker 13>do everything in our power to lift you up.

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<v Speaker 12>Governor Shapiro says. It is a devastating blow to the community.

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<v Speaker 12>Fourteen states are under heat watches and warnings today. In Arizona,

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<v Speaker 12>temper have been one hundred and ten degrees or more

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<v Speaker 12>for seventeen straight days. This woman brought her young child

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<v Speaker 12>to a water park in Phoenix to cool off.

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<v Speaker 2>We had in years where it's been wet and cooler,

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<v Speaker 2>but overall it's just spun hotter and hotter over time.

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<v Speaker 12>El Paso, Texas has seen triple digit temperatures for thirty

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<v Speaker 12>consecutive days. Traffic on a key bridge connecting Crimea to

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<v Speaker 12>Russia's mainland has been halted after reports of explosions that

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<v Speaker 12>Crimean officials say were from a Ukrainian attack. The bridge

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<v Speaker 12>was damaged in October by a truck bomb and required

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<v Speaker 12>months of repairs before resuming full service. In this tragic

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<v Speaker 12>news finally about a New York CBS to meteorologist Elise

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<v Speaker 12>Finch died suddenly over the weekend. Finch was just on

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<v Speaker 12>the air a day or two before her Heartbroken colleagues

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<v Speaker 12>called her a gifted and consummate professional. Her cause of

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<v Speaker 12>death has not been determined. Elise Finch was fifty one

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<v Speaker 12>global news twenty four hours day, powered by more than

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<v Speaker 12>twenty seven hundred journalist analysts in over one hundred and

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<v Speaker 12>twenty countries. I'm mich Labar. This is Bloomberg, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update

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<v Speaker 3>with John Stanshauer.

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<v Speaker 14>All right, Nathan, next tore innings for the Mets and Yankees.

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<v Speaker 14>The Mets at City Field waited through a four hour

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<v Speaker 14>rain delay, and then their bats were again quiet, but

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<v Speaker 14>Luis Ki or May with a base hit tenth Inny

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<v Speaker 14>to beat the Dodgers two to one, any the Mets

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<v Speaker 14>four game losing streak. In the three games with La

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<v Speaker 14>they only scored three runs. Meanwhile, dreadful loss for the

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<v Speaker 14>Yankees in Denver. They led three to one, then trailed

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<v Speaker 14>five to three as C. J. Crohn hit an eighth

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<v Speaker 14>inning grand slam for the Rockies. Yanks were then back

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<v Speaker 14>ahead seven to five in the eleventh Colorado with a

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<v Speaker 14>two run homer to tie the game in a solo

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<v Speaker 14>shot to win eight to seven. Yankee bullpen, which had

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<v Speaker 14>been a strength, has an eighty RA in the last

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<v Speaker 14>eight games. The Yankees are tied for last place and

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<v Speaker 14>now they have to deal with sho heey Otani. They

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<v Speaker 14>visit the Angels tonight. Are the Giants gonna sign Saquon

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<v Speaker 14>Barkley to a long term deal before we're the four

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<v Speaker 14>o'clock today deadline? And if not, does he agree to

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<v Speaker 14>play on the franchise tag er? Is he going to

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<v Speaker 14>be a holdout? Here were the most recent comments made

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<v Speaker 14>by Giants GM Joe Shane.

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<v Speaker 10>How we want to build this team and allocate our

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<v Speaker 10>resources and that's that's what it comes down to you.

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<v Speaker 2>So again, he's a good football player. He was durable

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<v Speaker 2>for this suit this year. He played well and you

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<v Speaker 2>know again he's He's a guy that.

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<v Speaker 14>We'd like to have back, the question being at what price.

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<v Speaker 14>DeAndre Hopkins became a free agent when released by Arizona.

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<v Speaker 14>He's going to sign with Tennessee and Wimbledon. The twenty

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<v Speaker 14>year old Spaniard Carlos Alcarez, playing a grass court tournament

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<v Speaker 14>for only the fourth time, prevailed in five sets over

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<v Speaker 14>Novak Djokovic was going for his twenty fourth Grand Slam title,

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<v Speaker 14>fifth in a row at Wimbledon. Alcarez the third youngest

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<v Speaker 14>to win in the Open era. And what a weekend

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<v Speaker 14>on the golf course for Steph Curry at the celebrity

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<v Speaker 14>event in Lake Tahoe, a hole in one Saturday and

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<v Speaker 14>then on the last hole in eagle putt to win

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<v Speaker 14>the tournament. John Stashiellward Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 15>Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San

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<v Speaker 15>Francisco to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias, Exam, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 15>Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. More signs of slow down

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<v Speaker 3>in China's economy weighing on global markets this morning, but

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<v Speaker 3>for US investors, the focus may be on the earnings

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<v Speaker 3>outlook as the Federal Reserve goes quiet before its next

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<v Speaker 3>policy decision coming up a week from Wednesday. So let's

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<v Speaker 3>get you set for this trading week ahead. We're joined

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<v Speaker 3>now by Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University of

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<v Speaker 3>Akron Indowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of the

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<v Speaker 3>Gartman Letter. Dennis, I've really been waiting to get your

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<v Speaker 3>take on what this Fed could do next. After the

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<v Speaker 3>positive reads we've gotten on inflation, there's still this expectation

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<v Speaker 3>that we're going to get a rate hike at the

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<v Speaker 3>end of this month. But is it going to be

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<v Speaker 3>one and done? Should it be one and done?

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<v Speaker 16>It's probably going to be one and done. There's no

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<v Speaker 16>question that they will raise the overnight that funds righted

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<v Speaker 16>by twenty five basis points when they meet next week.

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<v Speaker 16>That's absolutely beyond question. They've made it abundantly clear that

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<v Speaker 16>will happen, whether they go another twenty five basis points

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<v Speaker 16>that the September meeting is open for debate. I have

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<v Speaker 16>my doubts as to whether they shall or not I

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<v Speaker 16>think that five and a quarter to five and a

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<v Speaker 16>half is probably as high as the terminal rate shall go.

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<v Speaker 16>And my guess is that we'll see probably some relatively

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<v Speaker 16>weak employment numbers coming out over the course of the

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<v Speaker 16>next thirty to sixty days. That'll be enough to keep

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<v Speaker 16>the seat from moving in September, but it will be

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<v Speaker 16>a long time, a very long time, probably late twenty

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<v Speaker 16>twenty four before the Seat begins their policy of allowing

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<v Speaker 16>the overnight SAD funds right to reduce. Now that's up

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<v Speaker 16>twenty five basis points at the next meeting, and that

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<v Speaker 16>may well be the end of it.

0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:44.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we've heard that message from you for quite some

0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:48.400
<v Speaker 3>time here that this market isn't pricing in the rate

0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.520
<v Speaker 3>cuts the way you think they should.

0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:52.240
<v Speaker 8>Why is that?

0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.080
<v Speaker 3>Why do you think the market at this point is

0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 3>of fighting back against this idea that higher or that

0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.160
<v Speaker 3>higher for longer longer isn't going to mean what the

0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.520
<v Speaker 3>Fed is kind of indicated that it's going.

0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.120
<v Speaker 16>To It's a very good question, and it seems to

0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:10.120
<v Speaker 16>be beyond my ken. I've when the FED began the

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.160
<v Speaker 16>policy of raising rates that almost two years ago, I

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.080
<v Speaker 16>said at that time that rates are going to go

0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:18.160
<v Speaker 16>a lot higher, demonstrably a lot higher. And I actually

0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:20.560
<v Speaker 16>said at the time that we'd probably see the FED

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:22.160
<v Speaker 16>funds rate get to four and a half or five

0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.880
<v Speaker 16>percent before it was done, which seemed to be contrary

0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 16>to almost what anybody who had had anticipated. And I've

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:30.959
<v Speaker 16>always said that when the FED begins the policy of

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.440
<v Speaker 16>changing rates from higher, from lower to higher, or from

0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.760
<v Speaker 16>higher to lower, they take rates demonstrably farther and much

0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:39.160
<v Speaker 16>for a much longer period of time than anybody wants

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.560
<v Speaker 16>to anticipate. Here we are two years later, and it's

0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:44.720
<v Speaker 16>going to be at least another year before we before

0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:47.240
<v Speaker 16>the FED begins the policy of allowing rates to decline.

0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.200
<v Speaker 16>Why they've been why the market has wanted to anticipate

0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:54.400
<v Speaker 16>a quick return to easier FED policy is really quite

0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 16>beyond me, and it has made no historical sense whatsoever,

0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:00.960
<v Speaker 16>and it has made no economic sense. It's caught me

0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:02.040
<v Speaker 16>off guard. I'll be blunt.

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.560
<v Speaker 3>What's the trajectory for commodities right now? Now that we're

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:09.200
<v Speaker 3>seeing continued signs of slow down in the Chinese economy

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 3>and now indications this morning that the grain deal that's

0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 3>kept Black Sea grain coming out of from Ukraine could

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 3>be expiring now.

0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:24.000
<v Speaker 16>That probably will expire, and that would be bearish for

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:28.520
<v Speaker 16>one would anticipate that the expiry of that agreement would

0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:32.840
<v Speaker 16>be bearish for wheat prices, predominantly because of the importance

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.959
<v Speaker 16>of Ukrainian and Russian wheat to the world wheat market.

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:40.479
<v Speaker 16>But nonetheless, everybody understands that. I think that's a discounted circumstance,

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.360
<v Speaker 16>and it appears to me that commodity prices generally are

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:48.000
<v Speaker 16>extremely cheap relative to stock prices, which are extremely expensive.

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.520
<v Speaker 16>I would err upon the side of owning commodities in

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:57.480
<v Speaker 16>broad terms, owning grains, owning livestock, owning cu oil, owning copper,

0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:01.600
<v Speaker 16>owning tungsten, owning the base metal. I think commodities on

0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.440
<v Speaker 16>balance are extremely inexpensive relative to stock prices.

0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 3>Do you see that trend continuing even with inflationary pressures

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 3>continue to ease, Yes.

0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 16>I think so. I think we've been under pressure as

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.439
<v Speaker 16>far as commodity prices have been for the past year

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.640
<v Speaker 16>or so. The only commodity that has actually been going

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 16>from the lower left the upright has been gold prices,

0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 16>and they've actually been coming down for the past two months.

0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 16>But on balanced, wheat prices have been under pressure. Corn

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 16>prices have been under extreme pressure. Soybean prices have held

0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:35.080
<v Speaker 16>on their own. Pay attention to the term structure of

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 16>the commodity markets. Soybeans are now inverted, Wheat is now inverted.

0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 16>Corn is the only commodity grain grain commodity that is

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:47.200
<v Speaker 16>not an inverted the term structure, So pay attention to

0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 16>the term structures, or upon the side of owning soybeans,

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.640
<v Speaker 16>or upon the side of owning wheat, and or upon

0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 16>the side of being negative or unbiased towards the corn market.

0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:00.080
<v Speaker 16>What nobody seems to be paying attention to is that

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.160
<v Speaker 16>live stock prices have been going from the lower left

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.800
<v Speaker 16>to the upper right rather consistently lately, and no one's

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 16>paying attention to that. And the fact that copper prices

0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:10.840
<v Speaker 16>have stopped going down and have started to turn from

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 16>the has started to turn upward, which I think is

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.520
<v Speaker 16>indicative of global economic strength rather than global economic weakness.

0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 16>So watch commodity prices. As I said earlier, they seem

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 16>to me to be relatively cheap compared to extremely relatively

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:25.960
<v Speaker 16>expensive stock prices.

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.520
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