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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: We begin with geopolitics and US China relations. That is

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Speaker 3: the focus as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attends G twenty

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Speaker 3: meetings in India, and as Climate Voyd John Carey holds

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Speaker 3: talks in Beijing. Bloomberg Stephen Engel has the latest from

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Speaker 3: Hong Kong.

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Speaker 4: This is another opportunity to continue this diplomatic push that

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Speaker 4: we've seen obviously from the cabinet members of the Biden administration.

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Speaker 4: You've had Blinking go to Beijing, you had Yellen go

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Speaker 4: to Beijing. Yellen also, of course, keep in mind, went

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Speaker 4: to Japan G sevens or her engagement with the Asia

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Speaker 4: Pacific is intensifying. This will be her third trip to

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Speaker 4: India in the last nine months. You know, she says

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Speaker 4: India is an indispensable partner in the Biden administration policy

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Speaker 4: of friendshoring and securing supply chains and diversifying away perhaps

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Speaker 4: from over reliance on China. But the main story again

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Speaker 4: really with Kerrie and Beijing and Yellen in GEN twenty

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Speaker 4: is really to find ways, and these are her words,

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Speaker 4: to find ways to further de escalate tensions with China.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg Steven Angel reporting from Hong Kong. We've already

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Speaker 2: heard from Janet Yellen at those G twenty meetings. The

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Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary says it's too early to eliminate Trump era

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Speaker 2: tariffs on China.

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Speaker 5: Perhaps over time this is an area where we could

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Speaker 5: make progress, but I would say it's premature to use

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Speaker 5: this as an area for de escalation, at least at

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Speaker 5: this time.

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Speaker 2: Yellen says she wants to work with China on areas

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Speaker 2: of mutual interest, including a dead restructuring for poorer countries.

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Speaker 3: China's economy is also in focus this morning, Karen, thanks

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Speaker 3: to some disappointing data overnight. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian

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Speaker 3: Curtis has the details. From Hong Kong.

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Speaker 6: GDP grew six point three percent from a year ago,

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Speaker 6: weaker than the forecast of seven point one percent. The

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Speaker 6: figures were distorted as last year, Shanghai and other areas

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Speaker 6: were in lockdown. Sequentially, GDP was up just zero point

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Speaker 6: eight percent from the first quarter. In the monthly data,

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Speaker 6: June retail sales advancing three point one percent, lower than forecast. However,

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Speaker 6: a factory output was a relative bright spot, gaining four

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Speaker 6: point four percent and beating estimates. More stimulus might be coming,

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Speaker 6: but today the BBOC stood pat in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis,

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg day Break.

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Speaker 2: All right, Brian, thanks well. Turning to the US economy,

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Speaker 2: there will be no news from the Fed this week.

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Speaker 2: Central bankers are in a quiet period until next week's

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Speaker 2: policy decision. Despite last week's positive inflation data, former FED

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Speaker 2: Vice Chairman Richard Clarina still expects a quarter point rate hike.

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Speaker 7: Quite frankly, the Fed several times in the last several years,

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Speaker 7: including when I was there, got burned when they looked

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Speaker 7: at data that was improving and extrapolated that. So I

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Speaker 7: think this committee will certainly be wary of declaring mission

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Speaker 7: accomplished and victory, but clearly they'd rather have data like

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Speaker 7: last weeks than some of the numbers we were getting

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Speaker 7: earlier in the year.

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Speaker 2: And former Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarina, who is now

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Speaker 2: a Global Economic advisor at Pimco, tells US market bets

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Speaker 2: on a ray cut next March makes sense.

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Speaker 3: On the earnings Frontcaren, It'll be another busy week. JP

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Speaker 3: Morgan Chase, Wells, Fargo and City Group posted strong results

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Speaker 3: on Friday. Now we get word from the other big banks.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has more.

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Speaker 8: More financials will be reporting this week, including Goldman, Sachs, Morgan, Stanley,

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Speaker 8: and Bank of America. The flood of earnings reports come

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Speaker 8: amid questions about whether earnings expectations justify the outlook for stocks.

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Speaker 8: Laura Cooper is senior investment strategist at black Rock International.

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Speaker 2: We really have seen that better than expected earnings backdrop

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Speaker 2: be a key tailwind for equity markets, and I struggle

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Speaker 2: to see that trend persisting in the second half of

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Speaker 2: the year.

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Speaker 8: This week, we'll also be hearing from Railroads, CSX, UAL, IBM,

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Speaker 8: Johnson and Johnson, Lockey, Martin, Netflix, and Tesla in New York.

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Speaker 8: Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 2: All right, Charlie, thank you well. We turn to politics

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Speaker 2: now and the ban of the Republican presidential nomination. Florida

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Speaker 2: Governor Ronda Santis is hitting the reset button on his campaign.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Amy Morris repports from our ninety nine to one

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Speaker 2: newsroom in Washington.

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Speaker 9: While desandis looked to many like the guy who could

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Speaker 9: defeat Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. His campaign did

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Speaker 9: not expect how Trump's two indictments would energize his baits.

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Speaker 9: Seven weeks into Dessanta's official launch for the White House,

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Speaker 9: he's fired staffers, changed his media strategy, and streamlined his

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Speaker 9: travel schedule. Sources tell Bloomberg that at this point, no

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Speaker 9: campaign staffers should assume that their job is safe. Next,

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Speaker 9: his first major TV interview with a non conservative outlet CNN,

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Speaker 9: is set for tomorrow in Washington. I Mamy Morris, Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Daybreak, Okaymie, thanks being time. Another Republican candidate, Chris CHRISTI

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Speaker 3: he's trying to turn the heat up on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story.

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Speaker 10: Trump says he doesn't know if he'llotown the debates. Christy

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Speaker 10: says he thinks he'll be there.

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Speaker 11: His ego, I think will not permit him to have

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Speaker 11: a big TV show that he not on, and I

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Speaker 11: think he'd be enormously frustrated sitting back at Bedminster and

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Speaker 11: watching what I'm going to do to him.

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Speaker 10: Over the weekend. Trump said, when he gets indicted, he's

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Speaker 10: doing it for the American people.

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Speaker 12: He's a liar and a coward.

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Speaker 11: He's not getting indicted for anyone other than because of

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Speaker 11: his own conduct.

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Speaker 10: Christie's latest ads called Trump Chicken in San Francisco. I'm

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Speaker 10: at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 3: Okay, and thank you by the way. Chris Christy made

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Speaker 3: those comments on ABC's This Week. You can catch the

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Speaker 3: show every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio. Man, it's sound time

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Speaker 3: to take a look at some of the other stories

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Speaker 3: making news in New York and around the world with

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 12: Good morning, Nathan. New York Governor Canthy Okle said heir

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Speaker 12: quality health advisories are being issued for today for the

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Speaker 12: entire state. Hokele says residents with breathing issues, the very

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Speaker 12: young and old should stay inside today due to drifting

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Speaker 12: smoke from Canada's wildfires. Governor Hokele spoke during a news

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Speaker 12: conference Sunday.

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Speaker 7: It's likely to be healthy for sensitive groups.

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Speaker 6: As our orange category again normal is zero to fifty,

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Speaker 6: We're expecting.

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Speaker 7: Tomorrow to be one hundred to one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 7: on the air Quality Index.

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Speaker 12: The smoke is expected to cause the air quality index

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Speaker 12: to reach levels upstate that are unhealthy for all people.

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Speaker 12: A cluster of severe thunderstorms pound at the nation's northeast

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Speaker 12: over the weekend unleashed heavy flooding in Pennsylvania and halted

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Speaker 12: operations at several airports. At least five people died and

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Speaker 12: two children were still missing after floods ripped through Bucks County, Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 12: north of Philadelphia. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

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Speaker 13: On behalf of more than thirteen million Pennsylvanians. I want

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Speaker 13: Bucks County to know that we are here with you,

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Speaker 13: we are praying with you, and we will continue to

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Speaker 13: do everything in our power to lift you up.

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Speaker 12: Governor Shapiro says. It is a devastating blow to the community.

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Speaker 12: Fourteen states are under heat watches and warnings today. In Arizona,

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Speaker 12: temper have been one hundred and ten degrees or more

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Speaker 12: for seventeen straight days. This woman brought her young child

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Speaker 12: to a water park in Phoenix to cool off.

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Speaker 2: We had in years where it's been wet and cooler,

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Speaker 2: but overall it's just spun hotter and hotter over time.

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Speaker 12: El Paso, Texas has seen triple digit temperatures for thirty

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Speaker 12: consecutive days. Traffic on a key bridge connecting Crimea to

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Speaker 12: Russia's mainland has been halted after reports of explosions that

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Speaker 12: Crimean officials say were from a Ukrainian attack. The bridge

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Speaker 12: was damaged in October by a truck bomb and required

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Speaker 12: months of repairs before resuming full service. In this tragic

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Speaker 12: news finally about a New York CBS to meteorologist Elise

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Speaker 12: Finch died suddenly over the weekend. Finch was just on

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Speaker 12: the air a day or two before her Heartbroken colleagues

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Speaker 12: called her a gifted and consummate professional. Her cause of

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Speaker 12: death has not been determined. Elise Finch was fifty one

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Speaker 12: global news twenty four hours day, powered by more than

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Speaker 12: twenty seven hundred journalist analysts in over one hundred and

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Speaker 12: twenty countries. I'm mich Labar. This is Bloomberg, Nathan.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update

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Speaker 3: with John Stanshauer.

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Speaker 14: All right, Nathan, next tore innings for the Mets and Yankees.

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Speaker 14: The Mets at City Field waited through a four hour

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Speaker 14: rain delay, and then their bats were again quiet, but

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Speaker 14: Luis Ki or May with a base hit tenth Inny

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Speaker 14: to beat the Dodgers two to one, any the Mets

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Speaker 14: four game losing streak. In the three games with La

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Speaker 14: they only scored three runs. Meanwhile, dreadful loss for the

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Speaker 14: Yankees in Denver. They led three to one, then trailed

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Speaker 14: five to three as C. J. Crohn hit an eighth

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Speaker 14: inning grand slam for the Rockies. Yanks were then back

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Speaker 14: ahead seven to five in the eleventh Colorado with a

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Speaker 14: two run homer to tie the game in a solo

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Speaker 14: shot to win eight to seven. Yankee bullpen, which had

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Speaker 14: been a strength, has an eighty RA in the last

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Speaker 14: eight games. The Yankees are tied for last place and

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Speaker 14: now they have to deal with sho heey Otani. They

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Speaker 14: visit the Angels tonight. Are the Giants gonna sign Saquon

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Speaker 14: Barkley to a long term deal before we're the four

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Speaker 14: o'clock today deadline? And if not, does he agree to

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Speaker 14: play on the franchise tag er? Is he going to

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Speaker 14: be a holdout? Here were the most recent comments made

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Speaker 14: by Giants GM Joe Shane.

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Speaker 10: How we want to build this team and allocate our

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Speaker 10: resources and that's that's what it comes down to you.

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Speaker 2: So again, he's a good football player. He was durable

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Speaker 2: for this suit this year. He played well and you

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Speaker 2: know again he's He's a guy that.

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Speaker 14: We'd like to have back, the question being at what price.

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Speaker 14: DeAndre Hopkins became a free agent when released by Arizona.

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Speaker 14: He's going to sign with Tennessee and Wimbledon. The twenty

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Speaker 14: year old Spaniard Carlos Alcarez, playing a grass court tournament

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Speaker 14: for only the fourth time, prevailed in five sets over

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Speaker 14: Novak Djokovic was going for his twenty fourth Grand Slam title,

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Speaker 14: fifth in a row at Wimbledon. Alcarez the third youngest

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Speaker 14: to win in the Open era. And what a weekend

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Speaker 14: on the golf course for Steph Curry at the celebrity

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Speaker 14: event in Lake Tahoe, a hole in one Saturday and

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Speaker 14: then on the last hole in eagle putt to win

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Speaker 14: the tournament. John Stashiellward Bloomberg.

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Speaker 15: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San

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Speaker 15: Francisco to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias, Exam, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 15: Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. More signs of slow down

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Speaker 3: in China's economy weighing on global markets this morning, but

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Speaker 3: for US investors, the focus may be on the earnings

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Speaker 3: outlook as the Federal Reserve goes quiet before its next

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Speaker 3: policy decision coming up a week from Wednesday. So let's

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Speaker 3: get you set for this trading week ahead. We're joined

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Speaker 3: now by Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University of

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Speaker 3: Akron Indowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of the

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Speaker 3: Gartman Letter. Dennis, I've really been waiting to get your

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Speaker 3: take on what this Fed could do next. After the

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Speaker 3: positive reads we've gotten on inflation, there's still this expectation

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Speaker 3: that we're going to get a rate hike at the

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Speaker 3: end of this month. But is it going to be

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Speaker 3: one and done? Should it be one and done?

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Speaker 16: It's probably going to be one and done. There's no

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Speaker 16: question that they will raise the overnight that funds righted

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Speaker 16: by twenty five basis points when they meet next week.

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Speaker 16: That's absolutely beyond question. They've made it abundantly clear that

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Speaker 16: will happen, whether they go another twenty five basis points

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Speaker 16: that the September meeting is open for debate. I have

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Speaker 16: my doubts as to whether they shall or not I

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Speaker 16: think that five and a quarter to five and a

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Speaker 16: half is probably as high as the terminal rate shall go.

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Speaker 16: And my guess is that we'll see probably some relatively

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Speaker 16: weak employment numbers coming out over the course of the

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Speaker 16: next thirty to sixty days. That'll be enough to keep

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Speaker 16: the seat from moving in September, but it will be

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Speaker 16: a long time, a very long time, probably late twenty

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Speaker 16: twenty four before the Seat begins their policy of allowing

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Speaker 16: the overnight SAD funds right to reduce. Now that's up

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Speaker 16: twenty five basis points at the next meeting, and that

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Speaker 16: may well be the end of it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we've heard that message from you for quite some

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Speaker 3: time here that this market isn't pricing in the rate

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Speaker 3: cuts the way you think they should.

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Speaker 8: Why is that?

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Speaker 3: Why do you think the market at this point is

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Speaker 3: of fighting back against this idea that higher or that

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Speaker 3: higher for longer longer isn't going to mean what the

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Speaker 3: Fed is kind of indicated that it's going.

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Speaker 16: To It's a very good question, and it seems to

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Speaker 16: be beyond my ken. I've when the FED began the

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Speaker 16: policy of raising rates that almost two years ago, I

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Speaker 16: said at that time that rates are going to go

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Speaker 16: a lot higher, demonstrably a lot higher. And I actually

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Speaker 16: said at the time that we'd probably see the FED

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Speaker 16: funds rate get to four and a half or five

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Speaker 16: percent before it was done, which seemed to be contrary

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Speaker 16: to almost what anybody who had had anticipated. And I've

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Speaker 16: always said that when the FED begins the policy of

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Speaker 16: changing rates from higher, from lower to higher, or from

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Speaker 16: higher to lower, they take rates demonstrably farther and much

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Speaker 16: for a much longer period of time than anybody wants

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Speaker 16: to anticipate. Here we are two years later, and it's

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Speaker 16: going to be at least another year before we before

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Speaker 16: the FED begins the policy of allowing rates to decline.

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Speaker 16: Why they've been why the market has wanted to anticipate

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Speaker 16: a quick return to easier FED policy is really quite

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Speaker 16: beyond me, and it has made no historical sense whatsoever,

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Speaker 16: and it has made no economic sense. It's caught me

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Speaker 16: off guard. I'll be blunt.

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Speaker 3: What's the trajectory for commodities right now? Now that we're

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Speaker 3: seeing continued signs of slow down in the Chinese economy

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Speaker 3: and now indications this morning that the grain deal that's

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Speaker 3: kept Black Sea grain coming out of from Ukraine could

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Speaker 3: be expiring now.

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Speaker 16: That probably will expire, and that would be bearish for

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Speaker 16: one would anticipate that the expiry of that agreement would

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Speaker 16: be bearish for wheat prices, predominantly because of the importance

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Speaker 16: of Ukrainian and Russian wheat to the world wheat market.

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Speaker 16: But nonetheless, everybody understands that. I think that's a discounted circumstance,

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Speaker 16: and it appears to me that commodity prices generally are

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Speaker 16: extremely cheap relative to stock prices, which are extremely expensive.

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Speaker 16: I would err upon the side of owning commodities in

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Speaker 16: broad terms, owning grains, owning livestock, owning cu oil, owning copper,

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Speaker 16: owning tungsten, owning the base metal. I think commodities on

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Speaker 16: balance are extremely inexpensive relative to stock prices.

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Speaker 3: Do you see that trend continuing even with inflationary pressures

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Speaker 3: continue to ease, Yes.

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Speaker 16: I think so. I think we've been under pressure as

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Speaker 16: far as commodity prices have been for the past year

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Speaker 16: or so. The only commodity that has actually been going

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Speaker 16: from the lower left the upright has been gold prices,

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Speaker 16: and they've actually been coming down for the past two months.

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Speaker 16: But on balanced, wheat prices have been under pressure. Corn

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Speaker 16: prices have been under extreme pressure. Soybean prices have held

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Speaker 16: on their own. Pay attention to the term structure of

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Speaker 16: the commodity markets. Soybeans are now inverted, Wheat is now inverted.

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Speaker 16: Corn is the only commodity grain grain commodity that is

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Speaker 16: not an inverted the term structure, So pay attention to

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Speaker 16: the term structures, or upon the side of owning soybeans,

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Speaker 16: or upon the side of owning wheat, and or upon

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Speaker 16: the side of being negative or unbiased towards the corn market.

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Speaker 16: What nobody seems to be paying attention to is that

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Speaker 16: live stock prices have been going from the lower left

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Speaker 16: to the upper right rather consistently lately, and no one's

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Speaker 16: paying attention to that. And the fact that copper prices

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Speaker 16: have stopped going down and have started to turn from

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Speaker 16: the has started to turn upward, which I think is

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Speaker 16: indicative of global economic strength rather than global economic weakness.

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Speaker 16: So watch commodity prices. As I said earlier, they seem

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Speaker 16: to me to be relatively cheap compared to extremely relatively

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Speaker 16: expensive stock prices.

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