Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Stephanie Roth walks in
Speaker 1: and it's really wicked cold in here, folks.
Speaker 2: I like it that way, And the whole room heats
Speaker 2: up because she's working the terminal shure like nothing.
Speaker 1: What do you see over there in the terminal, Stepphanie Ross? Oh,
Speaker 1: this inflation report? This shock?
Speaker 3: I certainly, it certainly is a shock. I think the
Speaker 3: main thing that we have to remember is there is
Speaker 3: a lot of error in this report, so I would
Speaker 3: not take much away from this. A key thing that
Speaker 3: there's an issue with in the sense that when they're
Speaker 3: sampling the data specifically around November, that the survey period
Speaker 3: was condensed until later in the month when you typically
Speaker 3: have significant holiday discounting, and when we spoke with BOS,
Speaker 3: they said they're not doing anything to adjust those seasonals,
Speaker 3: so that automatically makes the data artificially weak and we're
Speaker 3: probably going to see a bounce back in December.
Speaker 4: Is there a trend wee can takeaway from here that, boy,
Speaker 4: it's at least inflation is not going up from here?
Speaker 4: Is that fair takeaway? Maybe it's not cooling as much
Speaker 4: as these numbers might suggest, but it doesn't appear to
Speaker 4: be rising.
Speaker 3: I think that's entirely fair.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 3: There was this concern that around the holiday season companies
Speaker 3: wouldn't really do the typical discounting that they usually do
Speaker 3: because of the tariffs. That doesn't appear to be the case.
Speaker 3: And we knew this heading into the data print because
Speaker 3: if you looked at a number of different indicators that
Speaker 3: survey the company is ahead of the holiday season, it
Speaker 3: showed a normal holiday discounting year. So it doesn't appear
Speaker 3: like there was this, you know, lapse in discounting just
Speaker 3: because of tariffs. In fact, it was a typical year
Speaker 3: for discounting. And then on top of that you have
Speaker 3: some of the issues within the data because of the
Speaker 3: government shutdown.
Speaker 2: So Myron's been out here, Governor Myron, We've got a
Speaker 2: lower rates, a whole bunch of other people. There's been
Speaker 2: a clear tendency within Bloomberg's surveillance of people looking at
Speaker 2: a disinflationary tendency. Is it a January tendency or is
Speaker 2: it a FED meeting waiting out Midsummer?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think, I think, I think what
Speaker 3: we'll see is inflation will bounce back in the next
Speaker 3: couple of prints, the economy will start to pick up again,
Speaker 3: in which case the Fed's probably going to be on
Speaker 3: hold for much of the beginning of next year.
Speaker 4: So again, so the Fed, I mean if you look
Speaker 4: at so you don't think the Fed's going to look
Speaker 4: at these numbers and say it.
Speaker 1: We've got inflation.
Speaker 4: I sure, hope not sure, because you think that data
Speaker 4: in the next couple of months could in fact show
Speaker 4: a little bit more inflation in the economy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And we know that there was a there was
Speaker 3: an issue. I mean, they didn't even collect in the
Speaker 3: October CPI for the most part. We know that there
Speaker 3: are issues with the data. So to form a strong
Speaker 3: conclusion about this print in particular as being some massive
Speaker 3: disinflationary period, I think is entirely inaccurate.
Speaker 2: Sevening wrong through this with a Wolf Research and we
Speaker 2: continue here Paul Sweeney and Tom King with Lisa Matteo
Speaker 2: and John Tuckler.
Speaker 1: Good Morning across the Nation's series XM Channel one twenty one,
Speaker 1: Good Morning Canada.
Speaker 2: I mentioned David Rosenberg up in Toronto with a disinflation recall.
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Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney was Stephanie rough.
Speaker 4: All Right, so we've got an inflation environment that's at
Speaker 4: least okay at this point.
Speaker 1: How about the labor market.
Speaker 4: What did you take away from some of the labor
Speaker 4: data earlier.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean so, I think what we're seeing is
Speaker 3: a live market that's holding up a lot better and
Speaker 3: in fact starting to inflect a bit higher from here.
Speaker 3: And I think that's the main conclusion that we should
Speaker 3: take away from the headline jobs numbers. Let me replace
Speaker 3: it the private payrolls numbers. The headline jobs numbers are
Speaker 3: impacted again by not necessarily the government shut down in particular,
Speaker 3: but the the third resignation program which ended at the
Speaker 3: end of September. These are people who took severance package.
Speaker 3: This is not people who lost their jobs. So if
Speaker 3: you look at the private payroll numbers, they were actually
Speaker 3: quite decent. Now we're looking at, you know, a trend
Speaker 3: that's close to in the seventy range, which is really
Speaker 3: not bad. So, and the effect the unemployment rate rose
Speaker 3: is less of a less of a concern. I think
Speaker 3: partially because there was again some issues with the government
Speaker 3: shut down impacting the data. And then in today's inflation data,
Speaker 3: the airlines were a big driver of the weakness, and
Speaker 3: that there was also canceled flights. There was just a
Speaker 3: lot going on.
Speaker 1: Uh in your first look at the noises the airlines.
Speaker 3: First look at the noises the airlines. They fell six
Speaker 3: point five percent over two months, so it comes out
Speaker 3: to about three percent each month. Right if you look
Speaker 3: at the you know, the core number was point one
Speaker 3: nine across both months. That's you know, quite quite low.
Speaker 3: A pail was was pretty weak. That is probably tied
Speaker 3: to this whole holiday discounting issue. So there's a lot
Speaker 3: of sort of noise within within within the report, and
Speaker 3: part tied to the government shutdown, and port tied to
Speaker 3: the fact that it's just a sort of less inflationary
Speaker 3: backdrop than the market.
Speaker 2: Higher futures of forty now forty seven, nansdeck up one
Speaker 2: point three half percent, the nansdack one hundred, I should say,
Speaker 2: vict sixteen point eight three. You know, I look at
Speaker 2: this stuff, I look at the whole ballet of it all,
Speaker 2: and I am more than certain I learned this from
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg at Merrill years ago, Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fenner,
Speaker 2: and Smith. I saw an article that is just Meryl.
Speaker 2: I said, it will never just be maryl. You just
Speaker 2: mentioned that the pros like you look at each line item.
Speaker 2: What do the service sector line items say and the
Speaker 2: angst of affoord to be in purchasing power, utility bills,
Speaker 2: medical bills, the auto insurance.
Speaker 1: Can you see those in the report?
Speaker 3: Yeah, we can see that in the report. Motor vehicle
Speaker 3: insurance looks pretty flat. Transportation services, lodging, all that stuff
Speaker 3: was pretty soft. It's hard to know to what extent
Speaker 3: this is government shutdown related. My senses, it probably is,
Speaker 3: and we'll see a bit of a bounce act. And
Speaker 3: then on the good side, that was all pretty soft,
Speaker 3: outside of maybe some used vehicles.
Speaker 1: Fed pick. What do you think who.
Speaker 3: Should it be? Or who do I think it will be?
Speaker 1: We have time for both answers.
Speaker 3: I would love to see Waller. I think he'd be
Speaker 3: a great pick, and I think markets would really prefer
Speaker 3: to see Waller, who I think is more likely. It's
Speaker 3: probably more likely to be Hassett, although it does seem
Speaker 3: like incrementally over the past couple of weeks, there seems
Speaker 3: to be some more concerns about Hasset, or at least
Speaker 3: more hesitation out of the White House right for picking him.
Speaker 2: Stephanie Roth, thank you so much for joining us, your
Speaker 2: commitment to surveillances appreciated, of course. With the Fed decides
Speaker 2: and other great moments,