WEBVTT - Trump's Deportation Plans 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:07.360 Also media Welcome to it could happen here a podcast 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:11.520 about things crumbling and how. 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:12.680 To pick up the pieces. 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:16.000 Wooing we love to crumble. 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:21.960 Yeah, and part of that is understanding what is going 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.400 to happen and how it is going to happen, and 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.080 absorbing that knowledge and what you can do with it. 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:32.040 So today James is going to tell us about Trump's 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:33.680 plans for migrants. 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:38.560 Yep, yeah, I guess in terms of what's going to happen, 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.040 we don't know, right. Trump said a lot of stuff 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:43.440 in his first term and kind of didn't stick the landing, 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:46.159 a lot of it he tried. But they're more experienced 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:48.519 now and I think crucially they have a much more 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.160 favorable Supreme Court and then probably will have an even 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.600 more favorable Supreme Court by the end of this term. 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.080 So a plan to deport up to a million people 0:00:57.120 --> 0:01:00.120 this year was one of the very few concrete and 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:03.880 tangible promises that the Trump campaign made, Right. They had 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:06.800 a lot of vibes, nasty vibes, but like in terms 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.560 of like we will do X by Y, this was 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:14.040 one of the very few. Now, Trump tried to deport 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:15.600 a lot of people in his first term, right, like 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:19.800 The one consistent part of his policy ever since he 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:23.720 rode sideways down an escalator in twenty fifteen and then 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:27.480 shit talked to Mexican people, has been an anti migrant policy. 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.840 He didn't really stick the landing on mass deportations in 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:34.520 his first term. In fact, Biden deported more people in 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:36.920 twenty twenty three than Trump did in any year of 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.520 his first term. In fact, Trump also fell behind Obama 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.160 in terms of deportations per year. None of that means 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.240 that he won't be able to do that this time, right, 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:48.040 I'm just trying to put some numbers on his promises 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:51.400 the last time, so I want to look first at 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:53.920 how he could go about his promise in his second term. Right. 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:55.960 One thing that he said he will do is use 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:59.640 Title forty two again. So if people have not listened 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.000 to the series I did last May or June on 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:05.880 Title forty two, I would like to direct them there. 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:07.400 Title forty two is a reminder. 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.680 It's a public health law, and it's public health law that, 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:16.680 in this interpretation, allowed CBP, specifically Border Patrol, to immediately 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:20.200 return people to Mexico without processing them first. Sometimes they 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:22.880 call it catch and release. Right, what it resulted in 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:28.520 was these are not technically deportations. But when Trump said something, 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:31.040 I don't think he's considering the exact meanings of what 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:34.799 he's saying. Right, So, if we look at Title forty 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:38.280 two expulsions, if he's going to bring back Title forty two, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:41.760 reaching that one million per year number is pretty easy. 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.919 In fact, that happened in twenty twenty two again under Biden. Right, 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.280 So if he considers those to be deportations, and that's 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:52.240 within his one million per year goal, it's reasonable that 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:53.799 he will reach to say that he will be able 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:55.320 to reach that, and he will be able to do 0:02:55.360 --> 0:03:01.600 that with the current infrastructure, right without massively upgrading CBP, ice, ice, 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:04.480 detention facilities, immigration judges. 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:05.120 All those things. 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.960 Yeah, So, like, if we consider those to be deportations, 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:10.760 and one million a year is very much something that 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:12.760 we might well see. 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:14.520 Do you know where we're at this year or it 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:15.760 hasn't been released yet. 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:16.720 I don't know. 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:18.840 In twenty twenty two was the last stats I could 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.800 find I linked to the CBP. If people want to 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:25.040 look at the title forty two and title so Title eight, 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.639 it's the immigration law under which people are normally received. Right, 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:31.920 Title forty two ended in May of twenty twenty three. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.880 May eleventh, twenty twenty three with the end of the 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:37.400 COVID nineteen emergency, because the reason they were using public 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:41.120 health law as immigration law was because of this health emergency. 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:44.000 Right now, obviously it was used extremely cynically. For instance, 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:47.280 there weren't exemptions for vaccinated people, but nonetheless that's why 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:49.640 they were using it. And when the federal emergency for 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:51.720 COVID nineteen ended, so did Biden's. 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.440 Excuse for using Title forty two. 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:55.720 That I will link to the CBP data center in 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:57.920 the notes so people can see Title forty two versus 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.560 Title late over the last few years. As I pointed 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.880 out last week, the US can also fund deportations of 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:06.120 migrants further south, and it's done this at Panama. I've 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:08.480 had a series from there last week. People haven't listened 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:10.880 to it. I would love them to do so, but 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:12.520 the numbers that they've been able to achieve they are 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:14.720 pretty low, and I don't think that's really going to 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:20.000 meaningfully impact his target. So let's talk about what everyone 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:22.760 is most afraid of, which is mass deportations of people 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:26.000 who are already living in the United States. Right that 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:30.279 is definitely what his right wing trolls have been sort 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:32.960 of hyping up, certainly over the last few weeks, right, 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:34.440 the idea that they are going to come to your 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:37.839 house and find you if you're an undocumented person in 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:41.360 the United States. So to talk about this, I want 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.440 to talk about, first of all, like the real nuts 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.680 and bolts of how he would be able, if he 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:47.320 would be able to do this right. And I draw 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:49.800 very heavily here on a report by the American Immigration 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:54.480 Council who did some calculations on the cost of a 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.200 single ice detention, right, the cost of a single raid, 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.000 the amount of agents that will be required to meet 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:05.640 this kind of capacity. And there are two models that 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:07.280 they use, and those are the models I think are 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:09.600 most relevant. If we look at people who are in 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:12.960 the United States without permanent legal status, we make an 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:18.160 estimate for numbers, we're looking at about eleven million undocumented people. 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:21.880 That's not going to be perfect, but if we use 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:24.719 that as a ballpark, and then two point three million 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:27.279 people who have entered since the end of Title forty two, 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.760 and they're on various forms of bail or parole or 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:35.040 bond and they don't have a permanent status here either rent, 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:39.080 So we're looking at somewhere in the region of thirteen million. 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:43.760 If Trump wanted to deport all of those people now, 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.840 to do that, he would need to massively expand ICE 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:52.640 detention facilities. About half of ICE's staff aren't Countrary to 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.000 what you might believe about ICE kicking in people's doors 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:59.440 and deporting them, half of ICE's staff work for something 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:03.720 called Home Security Investigations. It's not that those people don't 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:07.480 do deportations. They do, but they mostly focus on human trafficking, 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:11.960 drug trafficking, transnational crime. Now, sometimes as people also do deportations, 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.919 people might be familiar with the big HSI raids on 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:17.599 certain employers who are employing a lot of undocumented people. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.080 Those still result in deportations, but that's not their primary tasking, 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:27.680 and HSI has historically preferred not to do the deportation 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:29.960 work because they feel that that makes it very hard 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:32.360 for them to do the other work of like monitoring 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.920 human and drug trafficking, because evidently migrants are going to 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.320 be scared to go anywhere near HSI if they know 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.839 that HSI could deport them, right, so they're not going. 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:41.560 To talk to them. 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.520 Now, it would be very easy for Trump to retask 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:49.520 those those agents, right, that would obviously undermine work it's 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.560 done to prevent drug trafficking and human trafficking. Whether or 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:56.040 not he cares is a question that's you know, I 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:58.240 think I probably have an answer for that. I guess 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:03.040 up for debates somewhat. So Trump has already called in 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:07.880 addition to potentially re equipping those HSI agents, he said 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.200 he wants to employ ten thousand more Border Patrol agents. 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:11.960 Right now. 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:15.760 BP agents can do deportations, but it's not BP agents 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:18.600 who are coming to your door in Chicago and coming 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.320 after you, right that that's ICE Immigration and Customs enforcement. 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:24.480 He's also said he wants to give borderploal agents a 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.520 ten thousand dollars retention bonus and a ten percent raise. 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:30.480 Just to put it in the perspective, there are twenty 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:33.600 thousand BP agents right now, so that would be about 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:34.679 a fifty percent increase. 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:37.920 Right. This is not something he can do quickly. 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:39.520 They need to go through the academy, They need to 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:43.280 be recruited, trained, background check, et cetera. Border Patrol has 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.240 a lot of waivers right now, so you can we 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:49.080 can waive requirements that other law enforcement agencies would have 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:50.840 few to work for them, if that makes sense, right, 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.560 be it a ged or a college degree or another 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:57.240 language or whatever. They are offering waivers a lot right now. 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:00.600 They can increase that number of waivers to recruit more people, right, 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:04.440 but that would still take a long time. So the 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:08.760 estimate the American Immigration Council has is that to remove 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.600 all of those thirteen million people in that's sort of 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:14.239 in the one mass deportation as opposed to a million 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:17.600 people a year scenario, would require between two hundred and 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.800 twenty and four hundred and nine thousand stuff. 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:24.320 Jesus Christ. Yeah, yeah, that is a lot of people. 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:27.320 So I mean, like, for comparison as to how many 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:30.680 that actually is the United States military active duties about 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:31.360 a million people. 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:33.920 Yes, that was exactly. That's a comparison, Not the Army, 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.880 not the Navy, the military, yeah, like all of it. 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:41.440 Yeah, this would put DHS at like substantially more personnel 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:43.240 than like the Marine Corps, right, Like. 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:45.760 Yeah, not that people don't want to do, it's just 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.880 like it is. Actually, we've talked a lot about how 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.200 there are not guard rails on Trump like there were 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:52.839 last time. That is true, and that is a very 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.800 realistic thing to like be worried about and scared about. 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:58.520 But that we're not just talking about guard rails. We 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.320 are talking about a legist stickle hurdle. It is not 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:07.000 a simple or necessarily possible thing to make an agency 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:10.160 like that that much larger and have it actually function. 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:13.560 Like just this is just physics we're talking about here. Yeah, 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.439 it's the same with anything. If cool Zone suddenly received 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.200 one hundred billion dollars from Jeff Bezos and he said, 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.080 do anything you want with it, we could not scale 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:23.040 up to half. 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:26.800 A million employees like we have. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.800 We have absolutely no capacity to handle that. 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:31.120 Yeah. 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:33.320 Yeah, Like, I think what people have to remember is 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:36.120 that every doal kicking ice agent needs to enable us. Right, 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.360 They need paid they need health insurance, they need human resources, 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:43.640 they need training. This would take a very long time. Sorry, 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:45.960 it's one point three million or so. Okay, I think 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:46.600 it's a little less. 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:49.000 That's twenty seventeen data, so probably it's probably as closer 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.360 to a million now, but yeah, slightly over a million, 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:53.720 so but this is close to that's close to half, right. 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:55.680 Yeah, that's in addition to what they already have. Yeah, 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.199 it's four hundred and nine plus whatever they have. It 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.640 would also, of course mean like stantially increasing their investigative 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:06.560 capacity because most deportations right now, when ICE arrest someone 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:10.360 happened when someone else has already arrested that person. So 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:12.920 like the person who's in detention federally or on a 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:15.959 state level for something else that they did and they're undocumented, 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.199 and that's when ICE can take them and deport them. Right, 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:22.040 So they'd have to also increase their ability to search 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:24.720 out and find people, not saying they can't, but you 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:28.439 can't take you know, fucking Tim Poole bring him into ICE. 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:31.000 He's not going to instantly know how to find people 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.680 where to find people, right, So like this, this will 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:34.160 take time. 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:35.520 There is a practical. 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.960 Constraint on him doing this, even if there aren't other 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:42.880 constraints within the balance of powers. So Stephen Miller, dude 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:43.920 with the giant head. 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:45.280 I'm sorry, but you're going to have to be more 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.360 specific when we talk about like conservatives who are about 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:49.760 to come into power who have like. 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:50.960 A weirdly huge head. 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:55.360 Yeah, okay, that's like, find me a Californian who has 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:56.760 strong opinions on gluten. 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.600 Yeah that's me. I'm I'm PROGUREAE. 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:04.640 Yeah. Yeah, so Stephen Miller is he as the guy 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:08.120 who's crafted a lot of Trump's nefarious border policies. 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:08.360 Right. 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:12.080 It was Miller who who sook out Title forty two. 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:14.400 And I want to talk about this a bit later. 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:17.319 One thing that Miller did effectively, I don't want to 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:20.319 say well, because it was objectively horrible. But one thing 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.080 that Miller was good at was finding this obscure piece 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:26.760 of public health law and mobilizing it against migrants. 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:27.120 Right. 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.840 I think if you'd spoken to me in twenty fifteen 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:31.760 and said what do you think Trump's going to do 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:33.960 against migrants, I wouldn't have said, oh'll be Title forty two, 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:36.199 the United States Code, you know, that regulates public health. 0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:38.960 He or people within his team were very effective at 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:41.920 finding that and using that effective enough that the Biden 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.400 administration kept it for three years after the Trump administration 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:47.800 did it for one year. Right, And so Miller could 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:52.160 find some niche kind of law. What he wants to 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:56.120 do is use the national guard from cooperative states, right, Yeah, 0:11:56.520 --> 0:12:00.320 and to use a national guard from cooperative state in 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.640 states that are not cooperative and where local law enforcement 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:04.480 would not cooperate. 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:04.719 Right. 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:09.040 So some quote unquote sanctuary states, and there's probably an overstatement. 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.040 They don't in theory refer and document to people they 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:16.120 arrest to ICE for deportation. Right now, what federal fusion 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:18.720 centers do is allow for that even if it is 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:22.960 a sanctuary state. Actually, but in theoretical terms, a sanctuary 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:26.720 state would not at least contact ICE about every undocumented 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:27.840 person they're arrested. 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:28.040 Right. 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.600 So Bill's plan is to use the National Guard. Again, like, 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:35.440 that's not what the National Guard does right now. They're 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:37.319 not really trained up for doing that either. 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:37.719 Right. 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:40.960 I've seen plenty of National Guard folks on the border 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.360 fort It's a bunch of scared eighteen year olds, right 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:47.960 who are trying to get money from Robert and I 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.160 have met Texas National. 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.880 Guide on the board, their kids, their kids. Yeah. 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.840 Now, to be fair, that's not saying they're they're like 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.320 innocent or inherent Like every group of soldiers who has 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.880 done any good or bad things, and often but usually 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.560 both at the same time, it's a bunch of scared 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.320 eighteen year old kids. Yes, that's been the case for 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:12.120 ten thousand years. Yeah, that's true. 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:15.560 Anytime you have conflict reporting, you it's always shocking how 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:16.200 young people are. 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.720 It's always just like, oh, okay, all wars are fought 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.400 by children. There's no non child soldiers, with the exception 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:22.920 of I mean, that is the weird thing about the 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.439 Ukraine War, right Yet, Like I remember the first time 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:27.040 I wound up at the front there, it was like, oh, 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.640 this is actually it is actually old men fighting this war, 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.360 old men who repeatedly told me it's either me or 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:35.800 my kid shows up here. And I already fucking lost 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.440 my soul in Afghanistan. Yes, Like I literally had that 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.120 interview with people. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:42.800 It's crazy to me people who were in Afghanistan and 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:43.600 have fighting again. 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:45.920 Yeah, I mean I think those guys are probably out now. 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.480 I'm talking fifty Yeah, I. 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.800 Think twenty twenty forty, so it's forty years late. I'm 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:50.920 sure they're too old now. 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.480 But Robert talking of being too old, I'm voting. I'm 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.800 not too old to be obliged to transition to advertisement. 0:13:57.840 --> 0:13:58.760 So that's what we're going to do. 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:00.680 You're never too old for that, James. 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:02.920 In fact, the older you get, it's kind of like 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.200 how if you reread Moby Dick at different points in 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.280 your life, it's a completely different novel every ten years, 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.880 different book. The same thing is true with ulysses, and 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.280 the same thing is true with these advertisements. That's right, 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.560 save them, record them on your home device in every 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:21.120 couple of months, listen and you'll learn something new from 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:22.800 chumpa casino every time. 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:35.600 All right, we're back, and I hope you've downloaded that 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.040 chump of casino advert for later. And in the event 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.040 of a great down scenario, you could have a whole 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:44.840 library of those to listen to. So, talking of obscure legislations, 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.680 we did right. Trump and his team have mentioned this 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.360 thing called the Alien Enemies Act. It sounds like alien 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:53.520 Ant Farm, but it's not in any way related. 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.800 Sadly, not nearly as good as for one thing, it's 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:58.440 cover of smooth Criminal Terrible terrible. 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.520 Yeah, no, nowhere near the the same standard. That's a 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:03.400 joke for people who are over thirty. 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.280 Yes, anyone who tries to dance to that alien Ant 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.600 Farm song today not only has to think about the 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.040 fact that Michael Jackson was definitely a pedophile, but also 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:13.280 their needs no longer work. 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:14.600 It's a lose. 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:25.880 Are just sadly shuffling along, properly mood walking while crying, 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:27.560 uh taking iberprofen. 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:29.880 I was at a street light show in Portland that 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:33.120 was all millennials and every time, like the pit was crazy, 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.920 but also it sounded like a cement mixer when everybody's 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:36.680 knees got. 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:43.120 Going, doting out hyperprofen in the way out. 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:44.600 You're going to need this tomorrows. 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:50.320 So the Alien Enemies Act, it hasn't been used since 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:52.600 the United States used it in the Second World War 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:56.080 for in tournament camps, right, which, at least for many 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.640 of us, is a part of national shame. I guess, 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.200 like a pretty terrible fucking thing that the United States did. Obviously, 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:04.440 for some folks in the Trump administration, this is something 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.760 that they're kind of aspiring to. I guess Trump has 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:09.400 said that he would like to use this to deport 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:12.960 gang members. That's not really what it's for. And like 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.960 even sources within DHS have pointed out that they would 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.840 have to prove that these migrants were sent by a 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.960 foreign government, right, or someone that the US is at 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.640 war with. This is going to be hard because, like 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.080 if we look at Venezuelans, who are representing a larger 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.040 and larger proportion of migrants since the elections, there they 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.200 will actively shit talk the government of their country at 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.720 the first opportunity. I have met hundreds, if not thousands, 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:41.400 of Venezuelan migrants in California and in the Dallian Gap, 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.040 and yeah, you're not going to find people who you 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.720 can plausibly say were sent by Maduro that way. Yeah, 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:51.880 but Miller's pretty good at finding these obscure laws and 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.720 ways of doing things. So we would be fully to 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:56.960 write this off entirely. But I don't think that will 0:16:56.960 --> 0:17:00.320 make up the bulk of these mass deportations. So I 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:02.640 want to go to that American Immigration Council report, which 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:05.359 our link in the show notes, right, assuming a million 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.600 deportations a year, which is what jd. Vance said to 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.720 the New York Times, that's the sort of steady deportation 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.879 scenario as opposed to the mass deportation of thirteen million 0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:19.400 people scenario, which a steady one is is more realistic 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:23.280 in terms of practicality rate. The cost of that, assuming 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:26.000 that twenty percent of undocumented people decided to leave on 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:28.960 their own, would be about eighty eight billion a year, 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:30.920 which is a large amount of money. We'll talk in 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:32.600 a little bit about what you could get with that money. 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.119 A one off mass deportation would cost about three hundred 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:40.280 and fifteen billion. The detention costs alone for that one 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.720 off massed deportation of eleven to thirteen million people would 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:47.240 be one hundred and sixty seven point eight billion dollars, 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:52.080 which is probably why private prison group geo Groups stock 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.240 swed this week. Right, if Trump wants to deport people, 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:59.000 the average deportee is detained for fifty nine days before 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:03.119 they're deported, and so they are going to massively have 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:07.360 to increase their capacity. Right now, their current detention contract 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.920 includes a minimum of twenty nine seven hundred and ninety 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:14.760 beds between like increases and other facilities they have access to, 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.119 and early twenty twenty four, according to the American Immigration Council, 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:21.680 they detain thirty nine thousand people. Astute listeners will notice 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.680 that eleven million and thirty nine thousand are quite quite 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:29.760 desparate as numbers go. So, ah, yeah, I mean you're 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:33.160 talking about a huge percentage of Like we'll get into 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.639 this later, but in California, Texas, and Florida it's between 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.480 five and six percent of the population are undocumented. Right, 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:43.199 you're talking about building prisoned cities. If you were to 0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.200 detain that many people then one fell swoop. Again, that 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:50.040 takes time, but in this case it's private sector actors 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.800 like Geogroup, they can tend to move a little bit faster. Right, 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:57.600 So to put that cost in terms of things that 0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:00.040 the government could do with the money instead, right, a 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:04.240 decade of one million deportations a year means foregoing forty 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.159 four hundred and fifty elementary schools or two point nine 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:10.000 million new homes, or funding the head Start program for 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:13.840 seventy nine years. A single year of mass deportation would 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:16.840 cost nearly twice the National Institute of Health's annual budget, 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:20.800 or eighteen times a global annual expenditure on cancer research. 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:23.960 So I guess that's shit that we could have instead. 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:28.480 But that's not all because undocumented households, contrary to what 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:33.000 you might have heard, paid taxes. And if we deported 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:36.240 every undocumented person in the United States, we look at 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:39.680 twenty twenty two numbers, undocumented households paid forty six point 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.000 eight billion in federal taxes and twenty nine point three 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.800 billion in state and local taxes. That's a huge amount 0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:50.719 of tax revenue forgone right. Absolutely, Yeah, that again, that 0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:53.399 won't be the end of it, because some industries like 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:58.320 construction and agriculture rely heavily on undocumented labor. And if 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:00.200 you're worried about the cost of your groceries, now, now 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:03.240 if people voted for Donald Trump because that EGGX costs more, 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:07.399 shit will cost an awful lot more if we deport 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.840 the undocumented people working in agriculture. Right, sectors of that 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:15.760