1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Also media Welcome to it could happen here a podcast 2 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: about things crumbling and how. 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 2: To pick up the pieces. 4 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 3: Wooing we love to crumble. 5 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, and part of that is understanding what is going 6 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: to happen and how it is going to happen, and 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: absorbing that knowledge and what you can do with it. 8 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: So today James is going to tell us about Trump's 9 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: plans for migrants. 10 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 4: Yep, yeah, I guess in terms of what's going to happen, 11 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 4: we don't know, right. Trump said a lot of stuff 12 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 4: in his first term and kind of didn't stick the landing, 13 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 4: a lot of it he tried. But they're more experienced 14 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 4: now and I think crucially they have a much more 15 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 4: favorable Supreme Court and then probably will have an even 16 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 4: more favorable Supreme Court by the end of this term. 17 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 4: So a plan to deport up to a million people 18 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 4: this year was one of the very few concrete and 19 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 4: tangible promises that the Trump campaign made, Right. They had 20 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 4: a lot of vibes, nasty vibes, but like in terms 21 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 4: of like we will do X by Y, this was 22 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 4: one of the very few. Now, Trump tried to deport 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 4: a lot of people in his first term, right, like 24 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 4: The one consistent part of his policy ever since he 25 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 4: rode sideways down an escalator in twenty fifteen and then 26 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 4: shit talked to Mexican people, has been an anti migrant policy. 27 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 4: He didn't really stick the landing on mass deportations in 28 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 4: his first term. In fact, Biden deported more people in 29 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 4: twenty twenty three than Trump did in any year of 30 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 4: his first term. In fact, Trump also fell behind Obama 31 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: in terms of deportations per year. None of that means 32 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 4: that he won't be able to do that this time, right, 33 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 4: I'm just trying to put some numbers on his promises 34 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 4: the last time, so I want to look first at 35 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 4: how he could go about his promise in his second term. Right. 36 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 4: One thing that he said he will do is use 37 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 4: Title forty two again. So if people have not listened 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 4: to the series I did last May or June on 39 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 4: Title forty two, I would like to direct them there. 40 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 2: Title forty two is a reminder. 41 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 4: It's a public health law, and it's public health law that, 42 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 4: in this interpretation, allowed CBP, specifically Border Patrol, to immediately 43 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 4: return people to Mexico without processing them first. Sometimes they 44 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 4: call it catch and release. Right, what it resulted in 45 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 4: was these are not technically deportations. But when Trump said something, 46 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 4: I don't think he's considering the exact meanings of what 47 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 4: he's saying. Right, So, if we look at Title forty 48 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 4: two expulsions, if he's going to bring back Title forty two, 49 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 4: reaching that one million per year number is pretty easy. 50 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 4: In fact, that happened in twenty twenty two again under Biden. Right, 51 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 4: So if he considers those to be deportations, and that's 52 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: within his one million per year goal, it's reasonable that 53 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 4: he will reach to say that he will be able 54 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 4: to reach that, and he will be able to do 55 00:02:55,360 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 4: that with the current infrastructure, right without massively upgrading CBP, ice, ice, 56 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 4: detention facilities, immigration judges. 57 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 2: All those things. 58 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, So, like, if we consider those to be deportations, 59 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 4: and one million a year is very much something that 60 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 4: we might well see. 61 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: Do you know where we're at this year or it 62 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: hasn't been released yet. 63 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: I don't know. 64 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 4: In twenty twenty two was the last stats I could 65 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 4: find I linked to the CBP. If people want to 66 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 4: look at the title forty two and title so Title eight, 67 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 4: it's the immigration law under which people are normally received. Right, 68 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 4: Title forty two ended in May of twenty twenty three. 69 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 4: May eleventh, twenty twenty three with the end of the 70 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 4: COVID nineteen emergency, because the reason they were using public 71 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 4: health law as immigration law was because of this health emergency. 72 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 4: Right now, obviously it was used extremely cynically. For instance, 73 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 4: there weren't exemptions for vaccinated people, but nonetheless that's why 74 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 4: they were using it. And when the federal emergency for 75 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 4: COVID nineteen ended, so did Biden's. 76 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 2: Excuse for using Title forty two. 77 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 4: That I will link to the CBP data center in 78 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 4: the notes so people can see Title forty two versus 79 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 4: Title late over the last few years. As I pointed 80 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 4: out last week, the US can also fund deportations of 81 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 4: migrants further south, and it's done this at Panama. I've 82 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 4: had a series from there last week. People haven't listened 83 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 4: to it. I would love them to do so, but 84 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 4: the numbers that they've been able to achieve they are 85 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 4: pretty low, and I don't think that's really going to 86 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 4: meaningfully impact his target. So let's talk about what everyone 87 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 4: is most afraid of, which is mass deportations of people 88 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 4: who are already living in the United States. Right that 89 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 4: is definitely what his right wing trolls have been sort 90 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 4: of hyping up, certainly over the last few weeks, right, 91 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 4: the idea that they are going to come to your 92 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 4: house and find you if you're an undocumented person in 93 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 4: the United States. So to talk about this, I want 94 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 4: to talk about, first of all, like the real nuts 95 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 4: and bolts of how he would be able, if he 96 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 4: would be able to do this right. And I draw 97 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 4: very heavily here on a report by the American Immigration 98 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 4: Council who did some calculations on the cost of a 99 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 4: single ice detention, right, the cost of a single raid, 100 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 4: the amount of agents that will be required to meet 101 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 4: this kind of capacity. And there are two models that 102 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 4: they use, and those are the models I think are 103 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 4: most relevant. If we look at people who are in 104 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 4: the United States without permanent legal status, we make an 105 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 4: estimate for numbers, we're looking at about eleven million undocumented people. 106 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 4: That's not going to be perfect, but if we use 107 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 4: that as a ballpark, and then two point three million 108 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 4: people who have entered since the end of Title forty two, 109 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 4: and they're on various forms of bail or parole or 110 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 4: bond and they don't have a permanent status here either rent, 111 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 4: So we're looking at somewhere in the region of thirteen million. 112 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 4: If Trump wanted to deport all of those people now, 113 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 4: to do that, he would need to massively expand ICE 114 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 4: detention facilities. About half of ICE's staff aren't Countrary to 115 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 4: what you might believe about ICE kicking in people's doors 116 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 4: and deporting them, half of ICE's staff work for something 117 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 4: called Home Security Investigations. It's not that those people don't 118 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 4: do deportations. They do, but they mostly focus on human trafficking, 119 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 4: drug trafficking, transnational crime. Now, sometimes as people also do deportations, 120 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 4: people might be familiar with the big HSI raids on 121 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 4: certain employers who are employing a lot of undocumented people. 122 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 4: Those still result in deportations, but that's not their primary tasking, 123 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 4: and HSI has historically preferred not to do the deportation 124 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 4: work because they feel that that makes it very hard 125 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 4: for them to do the other work of like monitoring 126 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 4: human and drug trafficking, because evidently migrants are going to 127 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 4: be scared to go anywhere near HSI if they know 128 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 4: that HSI could deport them, right, so they're not going. 129 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 2: To talk to them. 130 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 4: Now, it would be very easy for Trump to retask 131 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 4: those those agents, right, that would obviously undermine work it's 132 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 4: done to prevent drug trafficking and human trafficking. Whether or 133 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 4: not he cares is a question that's you know, I 134 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 4: think I probably have an answer for that. I guess 135 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 4: up for debates somewhat. So Trump has already called in 136 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 4: addition to potentially re equipping those HSI agents, he said 137 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 4: he wants to employ ten thousand more Border Patrol agents. 138 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 2: Right now. 139 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 4: BP agents can do deportations, but it's not BP agents 140 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 4: who are coming to your door in Chicago and coming 141 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 4: after you, right that that's ICE Immigration and Customs enforcement. 142 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 4: He's also said he wants to give borderploal agents a 143 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 4: ten thousand dollars retention bonus and a ten percent raise. 144 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 4: Just to put it in the perspective, there are twenty 145 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 4: thousand BP agents right now, so that would be about 146 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:34,679 Speaker 4: a fifty percent increase. 147 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 2: Right. This is not something he can do quickly. 148 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 4: They need to go through the academy, They need to 149 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 4: be recruited, trained, background check, et cetera. Border Patrol has 150 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 4: a lot of waivers right now, so you can we 151 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 4: can waive requirements that other law enforcement agencies would have 152 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 4: few to work for them, if that makes sense, right, 153 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 4: be it a ged or a college degree or another 154 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 4: language or whatever. They are offering waivers a lot right now. 155 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 4: They can increase that number of waivers to recruit more people, right, 156 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 4: but that would still take a long time. So the 157 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 4: estimate the American Immigration Council has is that to remove 158 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 4: all of those thirteen million people in that's sort of 159 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,239 Speaker 4: in the one mass deportation as opposed to a million 160 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 4: people a year scenario, would require between two hundred and 161 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 4: twenty and four hundred and nine thousand stuff. 162 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 2: Jesus Christ. Yeah, yeah, that is a lot of people. 163 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 3: So I mean, like, for comparison as to how many 164 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 3: that actually is the United States military active duties about 165 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 3: a million people. 166 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 2: Yes, that was exactly. That's a comparison, Not the Army, 167 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 2: not the Navy, the military, yeah, like all of it. 168 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, this would put DHS at like substantially more personnel 169 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 4: than like the Marine Corps, right, Like. 170 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, not that people don't want to do, it's just 171 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 3: like it is. Actually, we've talked a lot about how 172 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 3: there are not guard rails on Trump like there were 173 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:52,839 Speaker 3: last time. That is true, and that is a very 174 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 3: realistic thing to like be worried about and scared about. 175 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 3: But that we're not just talking about guard rails. We 176 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 3: are talking about a legist stickle hurdle. It is not 177 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 3: a simple or necessarily possible thing to make an agency 178 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 3: like that that much larger and have it actually function. 179 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 3: Like just this is just physics we're talking about here. Yeah, 180 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 3: it's the same with anything. If cool Zone suddenly received 181 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 3: one hundred billion dollars from Jeff Bezos and he said, 182 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 3: do anything you want with it, we could not scale 183 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 3: up to half. 184 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: A million employees like we have. 185 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 3: We have absolutely no capacity to handle that. 186 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. 187 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, I think what people have to remember is 188 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 4: that every doal kicking ice agent needs to enable us. Right, 189 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 4: They need paid they need health insurance, they need human resources, 190 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 4: they need training. This would take a very long time. Sorry, 191 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 4: it's one point three million or so. Okay, I think 192 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 4: it's a little less. 193 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 3: That's twenty seventeen data, so probably it's probably as closer 194 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 3: to a million now, but yeah, slightly over a million, 195 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 3: so but this is close to that's close to half, right. 196 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's in addition to what they already have. Yeah, 197 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 4: it's four hundred and nine plus whatever they have. It 198 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 4: would also, of course mean like stantially increasing their investigative 199 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 4: capacity because most deportations right now, when ICE arrest someone 200 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 4: happened when someone else has already arrested that person. So 201 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 4: like the person who's in detention federally or on a 202 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 4: state level for something else that they did and they're undocumented, 203 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 4: and that's when ICE can take them and deport them. Right, 204 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 4: So they'd have to also increase their ability to search 205 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 4: out and find people, not saying they can't, but you 206 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 4: can't take you know, fucking Tim Poole bring him into ICE. 207 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 4: He's not going to instantly know how to find people 208 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 4: where to find people, right, So like this, this will 209 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 4: take time. 210 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 2: There is a practical. 211 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 4: Constraint on him doing this, even if there aren't other 212 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 4: constraints within the balance of powers. So Stephen Miller, dude 213 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 4: with the giant head. 214 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, but you're going to have to be more 215 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 3: specific when we talk about like conservatives who are about 216 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 3: to come into power who have like. 217 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 2: A weirdly huge head. 218 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, that's like, find me a Californian who has 219 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 3: strong opinions on gluten. 220 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 2: Yeah that's me. I'm I'm PROGUREAE. 221 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, so Stephen Miller is he as the guy 222 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 4: who's crafted a lot of Trump's nefarious border policies. 223 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 2: Right. 224 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 4: It was Miller who who sook out Title forty two. 225 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 4: And I want to talk about this a bit later. 226 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,319 Speaker 4: One thing that Miller did effectively, I don't want to 227 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 4: say well, because it was objectively horrible. But one thing 228 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 4: that Miller was good at was finding this obscure piece 229 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 4: of public health law and mobilizing it against migrants. 230 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 2: Right. 231 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 4: I think if you'd spoken to me in twenty fifteen 232 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 4: and said what do you think Trump's going to do 233 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 4: against migrants, I wouldn't have said, oh'll be Title forty two, 234 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,199 Speaker 4: the United States Code, you know, that regulates public health. 235 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 4: He or people within his team were very effective at 236 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 4: finding that and using that effective enough that the Biden 237 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 4: administration kept it for three years after the Trump administration 238 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 4: did it for one year. Right, And so Miller could 239 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 4: find some niche kind of law. What he wants to 240 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 4: do is use the national guard from cooperative states, right, Yeah, 241 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 4: and to use a national guard from cooperative state in 242 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 4: states that are not cooperative and where local law enforcement 243 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 4: would not cooperate. 244 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:04,719 Speaker 2: Right. 245 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 4: So some quote unquote sanctuary states, and there's probably an overstatement. 246 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 4: They don't in theory refer and document to people they 247 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 4: arrest to ICE for deportation. Right now, what federal fusion 248 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 4: centers do is allow for that even if it is 249 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 4: a sanctuary state. Actually, but in theoretical terms, a sanctuary 250 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 4: state would not at least contact ICE about every undocumented 251 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 4: person they're arrested. 252 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 2: Right. 253 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 4: So Bill's plan is to use the National Guard. Again, like, 254 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 4: that's not what the National Guard does right now. They're 255 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 4: not really trained up for doing that either. 256 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:37,719 Speaker 2: Right. 257 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 4: I've seen plenty of National Guard folks on the border 258 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 4: fort It's a bunch of scared eighteen year olds, right 259 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 4: who are trying to get money from Robert and I 260 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 4: have met Texas National. 261 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 2: Guide on the board, their kids, their kids. Yeah. 262 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 3: Now, to be fair, that's not saying they're they're like 263 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 3: innocent or inherent Like every group of soldiers who has 264 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 3: done any good or bad things, and often but usually 265 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 3: both at the same time, it's a bunch of scared 266 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 3: eighteen year old kids. Yes, that's been the case for 267 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 3: ten thousand years. Yeah, that's true. 268 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 4: Anytime you have conflict reporting, you it's always shocking how 269 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 4: young people are. 270 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 3: It's always just like, oh, okay, all wars are fought 271 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 3: by children. There's no non child soldiers, with the exception 272 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 3: of I mean, that is the weird thing about the 273 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 3: Ukraine War, right Yet, Like I remember the first time 274 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 3: I wound up at the front there, it was like, oh, 275 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 3: this is actually it is actually old men fighting this war, 276 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 3: old men who repeatedly told me it's either me or 277 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 3: my kid shows up here. And I already fucking lost 278 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 3: my soul in Afghanistan. Yes, Like I literally had that 279 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 3: interview with people. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 280 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 4: It's crazy to me people who were in Afghanistan and 281 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 4: have fighting again. 282 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think those guys are probably out now. 283 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 3: I'm talking fifty Yeah, I. 284 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 2: Think twenty twenty forty, so it's forty years late. I'm 285 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 2: sure they're too old now. 286 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 4: But Robert talking of being too old, I'm voting. I'm 287 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 4: not too old to be obliged to transition to advertisement. 288 00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 4: So that's what we're going to do. 289 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 2: You're never too old for that, James. 290 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 3: In fact, the older you get, it's kind of like 291 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 3: how if you reread Moby Dick at different points in 292 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 3: your life, it's a completely different novel every ten years, 293 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 3: different book. The same thing is true with ulysses, and 294 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 3: the same thing is true with these advertisements. That's right, 295 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 3: save them, record them on your home device in every 296 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 3: couple of months, listen and you'll learn something new from 297 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 3: chumpa casino every time. 298 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 4: All right, we're back, and I hope you've downloaded that 299 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 4: chump of casino advert for later. And in the event 300 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 4: of a great down scenario, you could have a whole 301 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 4: library of those to listen to. So, talking of obscure legislations, 302 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 4: we did right. Trump and his team have mentioned this 303 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 4: thing called the Alien Enemies Act. It sounds like alien 304 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 4: Ant Farm, but it's not in any way related. 305 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 3: Sadly, not nearly as good as for one thing, it's 306 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 3: cover of smooth Criminal Terrible terrible. 307 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, no, nowhere near the the same standard. That's a 308 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 4: joke for people who are over thirty. 309 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 3: Yes, anyone who tries to dance to that alien Ant 310 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 3: Farm song today not only has to think about the 311 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 3: fact that Michael Jackson was definitely a pedophile, but also 312 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 3: their needs no longer work. 313 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 2: It's a lose. 314 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 4: Are just sadly shuffling along, properly mood walking while crying, 315 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 4: uh taking iberprofen. 316 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 3: I was at a street light show in Portland that 317 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 3: was all millennials and every time, like the pit was crazy, 318 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 3: but also it sounded like a cement mixer when everybody's 319 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 3: knees got. 320 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 4: Going, doting out hyperprofen in the way out. 321 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: You're going to need this tomorrows. 322 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 4: So the Alien Enemies Act, it hasn't been used since 323 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 4: the United States used it in the Second World War 324 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 4: for in tournament camps, right, which, at least for many 325 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 4: of us, is a part of national shame. I guess, 326 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 4: like a pretty terrible fucking thing that the United States did. Obviously, 327 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 4: for some folks in the Trump administration, this is something 328 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 4: that they're kind of aspiring to. I guess Trump has 329 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 4: said that he would like to use this to deport 330 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 4: gang members. That's not really what it's for. And like 331 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 4: even sources within DHS have pointed out that they would 332 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 4: have to prove that these migrants were sent by a 333 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 4: foreign government, right, or someone that the US is at 334 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 4: war with. This is going to be hard because, like 335 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 4: if we look at Venezuelans, who are representing a larger 336 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 4: and larger proportion of migrants since the elections, there they 337 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 4: will actively shit talk the government of their country at 338 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 4: the first opportunity. I have met hundreds, if not thousands, 339 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 4: of Venezuelan migrants in California and in the Dallian Gap, 340 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 4: and yeah, you're not going to find people who you 341 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 4: can plausibly say were sent by Maduro that way. Yeah, 342 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 4: but Miller's pretty good at finding these obscure laws and 343 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 4: ways of doing things. So we would be fully to 344 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 4: write this off entirely. But I don't think that will 345 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 4: make up the bulk of these mass deportations. So I 346 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 4: want to go to that American Immigration Council report, which 347 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 4: our link in the show notes, right, assuming a million 348 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 4: deportations a year, which is what jd. Vance said to 349 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 4: the New York Times, that's the sort of steady deportation 350 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 4: scenario as opposed to the mass deportation of thirteen million 351 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 4: people scenario, which a steady one is is more realistic 352 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 4: in terms of practicality rate. The cost of that, assuming 353 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 4: that twenty percent of undocumented people decided to leave on 354 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 4: their own, would be about eighty eight billion a year, 355 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 4: which is a large amount of money. We'll talk in 356 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 4: a little bit about what you could get with that money. 357 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 4: A one off mass deportation would cost about three hundred 358 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 4: and fifteen billion. The detention costs alone for that one 359 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 4: off massed deportation of eleven to thirteen million people would 360 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 4: be one hundred and sixty seven point eight billion dollars, 361 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 4: which is probably why private prison group geo Groups stock 362 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 4: swed this week. Right, if Trump wants to deport people, 363 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 4: the average deportee is detained for fifty nine days before 364 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 4: they're deported, and so they are going to massively have 365 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:07,360 Speaker 4: to increase their capacity. Right now, their current detention contract 366 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 4: includes a minimum of twenty nine seven hundred and ninety 367 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 4: beds between like increases and other facilities they have access to, 368 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 4: and early twenty twenty four, according to the American Immigration Council, 369 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 4: they detain thirty nine thousand people. Astute listeners will notice 370 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 4: that eleven million and thirty nine thousand are quite quite 371 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 4: desparate as numbers go. So, ah, yeah, I mean you're 372 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,160 Speaker 4: talking about a huge percentage of Like we'll get into 373 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 4: this later, but in California, Texas, and Florida it's between 374 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 4: five and six percent of the population are undocumented. Right, 375 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,199 Speaker 4: you're talking about building prisoned cities. If you were to 376 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 4: detain that many people then one fell swoop. Again, that 377 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 4: takes time, but in this case it's private sector actors 378 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 4: like Geogroup, they can tend to move a little bit faster. Right, 379 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 4: So to put that cost in terms of things that 380 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,040 Speaker 4: the government could do with the money instead, right, a 381 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 4: decade of one million deportations a year means foregoing forty 382 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 4: four hundred and fifty elementary schools or two point nine 383 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 4: million new homes, or funding the head Start program for 384 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 4: seventy nine years. A single year of mass deportation would 385 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 4: cost nearly twice the National Institute of Health's annual budget, 386 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 4: or eighteen times a global annual expenditure on cancer research. 387 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 2: So I guess that's shit that we could have instead. 388 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 4: But that's not all because undocumented households, contrary to what 389 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 4: you might have heard, paid taxes. And if we deported 390 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 4: every undocumented person in the United States, we look at 391 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two numbers, undocumented households paid forty six point 392 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 4: eight billion in federal taxes and twenty nine point three 393 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 4: billion in state and local taxes. That's a huge amount 394 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:50,719 Speaker 4: of tax revenue forgone right. Absolutely, Yeah, that again, that 395 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 4: won't be the end of it, because some industries like 396 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 4: construction and agriculture rely heavily on undocumented labor. And if 397 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 4: you're worried about the cost of your groceries, now, now 398 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 4: if people voted for Donald Trump because that EGGX costs more, 399 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 4: shit will cost an awful lot more if we deport 400 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 4: the undocumented people working in agriculture. Right, sectors of that 401 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 4: industry do not function economically without underpaid migrant labor. 402 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 2: And this is something that migrants are very aware of. 403 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 4: Actually I broadcast interview with one of them last week, 404 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 4: But they know that they will be underpaid because they're undocumented, 405 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 4: but they still think that that's worth it for them 406 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 4: to be safe. 407 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:27,640 Speaker 2: Right. 408 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 4: So for going that, I don't think Trump has not 409 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 4: proposed a solution to this right length these sort of 410 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 4: this long form thinking is not what he does certainly 411 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 4: in his speeches, but that would have a massive impact 412 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 4: on the economy. What he would also need to do 413 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 4: is persuade the countries that these migrants come from to 414 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 4: take them back, and that has historically been something that 415 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 4: has been extremely difficult. 416 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 2: The State Department. 417 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 4: Doesn't see the sort of process of persuading people to 418 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 4: accept migrants as really within its remit and it certainly 419 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 4: sort of bristle that having to do this the last 420 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 4: Trump administration. I think a mass deportation like this it 421 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 4: would trigger some nations refusing to take people back, for instance, 422 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 4: to Venezuela. Right, Venezuela is already not taking people back 423 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 4: from Panama. You at the US funds deportations for Panama. 424 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 4: Venezuela and Panama ceased relations after the election in Venezuela 425 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 4: and Panama rightly claiming that that was a fraudulent election, 426 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 4: and as a result, Panama is now looking for a 427 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 4: third country to deport these people too. If the US 428 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 4: attempted to deport potentially millions to people to Venezuela again, 429 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 4: there's no guarantee that Madua has to accept them back, right. 430 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 1: I can hear a lot of people saying, how is 431 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: that allowed. 432 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,360 Speaker 2: To not accept take them back? 433 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: Yeah? 434 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 4: I mean international law is like it's a unicorn, Like 435 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 4: you know, if everyone agrees that they see it, and 436 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 4: they see it, but it's not real, right, So like 437 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 4: who is going to make them I guess, like like 438 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 4: whether it's allowed or not, it's kind of immaterial. Madua 439 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 4: is not how to steal the election right, you're not 440 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 4: allowed to abuse human rights. Migrants are allowed to cross 441 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 4: any country they want and claim asylum anywhere that they 442 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 4: feel safe. But like here we are so yeah, in 443 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 4: theory the country should accept its citizens back and practice 444 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 4: will it? 445 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 2: I don't know, certainly. 446 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 4: It becomes like a bigger issue when you have millions 447 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 4: of people, right, And if we have millions of people 448 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 4: deported back, then like if we can't deport them, where 449 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 4: are we going to detain them? That gets back to 450 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 4: the cost of detentions, right, talking of costs should probably 451 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,479 Speaker 4: cover the costs of our podcasting set up here by 452 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 4: pivoting to adverts again, Yeah, we are back, and for 453 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 4: the final segment here, I want to talk about who 454 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 4: Trump could pursue with these deportations. Right, there's two major groups. 455 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 4: The obvious starting point would be two point three million 456 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 4: people who cross between January of twenty twenty three and 457 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 4: April of this year, before Biden signed his asylum bad 458 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 4: to be prescribed. That to two million, two hundred and 459 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 4: sixty four, eight hundred and thirty. Those people don't have 460 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 4: permanent immigration status. Those are the people who you've heard 461 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 4: from on this podcast who are in cucumber right. The 462 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 4: people who we've interviewed for the last year and a 463 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 4: bit now. They have various immigration status, but none of 464 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 4: them are permanent. None of them have permanent residency. All 465 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 4: of them are obviously registered. 466 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:31,360 Speaker 2: Right. 467 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 4: They normally have a notice to appear in court, which 468 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 4: would make them easy to find and potentially easy to deport. 469 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 2: The other group of. 470 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 4: People are the undocumented migrant who have been here for 471 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 4: longer than that. Many of them have most have been 472 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 4: in the country for more than a decade. They're working, 473 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 4: They often have citizen children right because of birthright citizenship. 474 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 4: Most of the pay taxes. Most of these people have 475 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,679 Speaker 4: some form of revocable legal status, so that might be 476 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,919 Speaker 4: something called a temporary protected status. We talked about a 477 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 4: temporary protected status last week as well, but it applies 478 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 4: to people who are already in the country when it's granted, 479 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 4: and it allows them to stay for a designated period 480 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 4: of time while it's not safe to deport them to 481 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 4: their home country. 482 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,880 Speaker 2: Let's say there's been a war or a natural disaster. 483 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 4: Right, it's not safe to deport them, but it gets 484 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 4: renewed two months before the end of that period. Let's 485 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 4: say it renews every eighteen months, and you find out 486 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 4: two months before the end of that period if it's 487 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 4: not going to be renewed. If they didn't renew those TPSS, 488 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 4: those people could either change status or would become undocumented. 489 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 4: The TPS has existed since nineteen ninety and they're about 490 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 4: eight hundred and sixty thousand people on TPS right now. 491 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 4: The other major category that people will probably be more 492 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 4: familiar with are dreamers, people who came to the United 493 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 4: States as children and are undocumented, but they benefit from 494 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 4: something called Darker Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, and about 495 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 4: eight hundred and thirty four thousand young people benefit from this, 496 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 4: which allows them to receive a renewable two year period 497 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,919 Speaker 4: of deferred action from deportation. Trump did try and go 498 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 4: after this in his previous term in twenty eighteen. He 499 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 4: ended up in a two year court battle which sort 500 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 4: of finished up with NAACP versus Trump, and that ran 501 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,679 Speaker 4: out the clock on his term and Biden reinstated Darker. 502 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,880 Speaker 4: But again, because people have to register for Darker, their 503 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 4: whereabouts are easier for someone like Ice to potentially find. 504 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 4: Then after that, we have people who entered without being detected. 505 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 4: We have people who overstayed their visas. Those people might 506 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 4: be harder to find, right. The model of the undocumented 507 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 4: migrant that people have in their head comes across the 508 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 4: border with carpet shoes, sneaks past a BP checkpoint, and 509 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 4: then lives in the United States without ever encountering migration authorities. 510 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 4: That's actually not the majority model, but those people do exist, 511 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 4: and that they would be harder for ICE to find potentially. 512 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 4: Trump is also vowed to end parole programs that allow 513 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 4: Ukrainians and Afghans to enter the USA and work. I 514 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 4: would think that some of those would be pretty unpopular. 515 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 4: People have been much more broadly in sort of with 516 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 4: Ukrainian migrants than they have with other migrants from other. 517 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 2: Parts of the world. 518 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 4: They'll say, but it would be an easy one again 519 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 4: for him to end right. The last thing he's really 520 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 4: said he wanted to do is to end birthright citizenship. Yep. 521 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:18,400 Speaker 4: That is I spoke about this before in our Agenda 522 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 4: forty seven episodes. That's pretty clear in the fourteenth Amendment 523 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 4: they have some kind of fringes on the flag legal 524 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 4: theory around this, but like I would think that that 525 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 4: would require a constitutional amendment. But who knows, because he 526 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 4: might have both Houses and the Supreme Court on his side, 527 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,439 Speaker 4: so he might just be able to get away with 528 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 4: doing that. This obviously wouldn't rescind citizenship from people who 529 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 4: have previously have children who are citizens. Talking of people 530 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 4: have children as citizens, they are about four million mixed 531 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 4: status families in the United States, so this deportation plan 532 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 4: could potentially separate parents from children and children from parents, 533 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,399 Speaker 4: children from their older parents who they take care of. 534 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 4: It could destroy these families, right, Deportations always destroy families. 535 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 4: I've seen this happening myself, and it's horrible. The states 536 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 4: where this would most likely happen the states are the 537 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 4: highest documented population at California, Texas, and Florida. California thus 538 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 4: far retains its sanctuary policies. Texas Florida very much do not, right, 539 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 4: and so those would be the states where they will 540 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,400 Speaker 4: be the highest risk of this happening. That's between five 541 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,719 Speaker 4: and six percent of their population. And that's kind of 542 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 4: where I want to finish up today. I've got some 543 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,440 Speaker 4: more stuff I wanted to say about his border policy, 544 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,160 Speaker 4: but I think I'm going to say that for another episode, 545 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 4: because the border and immigration are different things. And I 546 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 4: think sometimes this is something that a lot of legacy 547 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 4: media doesn't understand. They have immigration reporters who report immigration law, 548 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 4: the stuff i've spoken about today, but the border is 549 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 4: not somewhere that they go, and it's not something that 550 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 4: they cover very well. If you've been listening for a while, 551 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 4: you'll know that I've spent a lot of time at 552 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 4: the border on the ground, in the mountains, in the desert, 553 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 4: and that's something that we've covered in great depth here 554 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,119 Speaker 4: and I'm pretty happy that listeners have a really complete 555 00:27:59,200 --> 00:27:59,959 Speaker 4: understanding of it. 556 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 1: Would California actually be able to enforce being a sanctuary 557 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: state or. 558 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,719 Speaker 4: Now, yes, in the it's law enforcement doesn't have to 559 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 4: caught ice, right. The federal government cannot compel local law 560 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 4: enforcement to state law enforcement to do its work. 561 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 2: That is very well established. 562 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 4: Again, nothing's off the cards when you have both Houses 563 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:26,160 Speaker 4: of Congress and the Supreme Court. But again that would 564 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 4: take time and it would take a court battle. So 565 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 4: what they can do now is not report those people right, 566 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,199 Speaker 4: not say hey, we got someone here, he came in 567 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 4: because we found him with a bag of weed. He's undocumented. 568 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 4: You know, he was driving thirty five and a thirty, 569 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 4: he's undocumented. These are things that people who are undocumented 570 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 4: have to worry about, right, Like, for those of you 571 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 4: who don't have undocumented folks in your life, Like it's 572 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 4: a speeding ticket, it's the most minor in it's not 573 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 4: paying a parking ticket and ending up in court, right Like, 574 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 4: this shit is so minor to so many people, but 575 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 4: it could tear someone's life apart. And so I want 576 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 4: to like finish up by saying that, Yeah, Texas and 577 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 4: Florida are going to be the places where we see this. Yeah, 578 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 4: five percent of the population is a large amount of 579 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 4: your population. If he even attempts half of that, people 580 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 4: are going to see this. It's going to happen in 581 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 4: your community. Now, I'm not saying he will, but if 582 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 4: it does, like the time to start organizing to protect 583 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 4: people you care about is now. Be that with their nations, 584 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 4: to groups like Alo Torolalo, who have successfully sued the 585 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 4: Trump and Bien administrations for my goods rights. Be that 586 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 4: with organizing such that your own documented friends don't end 587 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 4: up in court because they couldn't pay a parking ticket, 588 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 4: right even if that means you paying someone giving someone 589 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 4: fifty bucks for a parking ticket so that it doesn't 590 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 4: ruin the rest of their life. 591 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 2: Whatever it is. The way that we. 592 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 4: Prevent this is through strong communities. We have to start 593 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 4: putting those now. I know we've said this a lot 594 00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,239 Speaker 4: this week, but we're probably going to say a lot 595 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 4: for the next three months. It's like a lot of 596 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 4: people have reached out to me since the Trump election, 597 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 4: which was two days but also like seven years ago, 598 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 4: because that's how time works, saying that they want to 599 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 4: participate in mutual aid at the border. I would love 600 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 4: for you to come and join us, of course it would, 601 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 4: And like I think people have heard a lot about 602 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 4: our mutual aid setup because of something I do a lot, 603 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 4: but that I don't want you to come here and 604 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 4: do mutual aid tourism, Like I want you to come 605 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 4: here and understand and learn what we do and then 606 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 4: do it yourself, or just do it yourself, like there 607 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 4: was a time when this didn't exist and people started 608 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 4: it right and you can start it to And I'm 609 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 4: not going to tell you, like the specifics of what 610 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 4: I think you should do, because I don't know. I 611 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 4: don't know what the legal environment will be. I don't 612 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 4: know what the legal environment will be in your state. 613 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 4: But whatever the legal environment is, it will be better 614 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 4: if we have strong and cohesive communities to look after 615 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 4: one another. 616 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 2: Right. If you're looking to donate your money. 617 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 4: I've said it before ALOTLAO where I would suggest it. 618 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 2: It's a L t R O l A d O 619 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 2: dot org. 620 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 4: They've done really valuable work in defending migrants rights in court. 621 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,239 Speaker 4: Haitian Bridge Alliance would be another great example of that. 622 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 4: Will you link that, I'll put them both in the 623 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:12,920 Speaker 4: show notes. 624 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 2: Yeah. 625 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 4: But the way we confront this is together. And it's 626 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 4: super important that now in the next three months of 627 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 4: that are and documented people in your life so that 628 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 4: you check in with them, that you talk with them 629 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 4: about what the best plan is. We don't know what's 630 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 4: going to happen. I've outlined some scenarios here. None of 631 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 4: them may happen, right, We don't know yet, but we 632 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 4: have these three months and we'd be foolish not to 633 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 4: use them. 634 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 1: Ye. 635 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, talk to your friends, begin organizing. The solution is 636 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 4: not to spare. The solution is community, and I know 637 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 4: it can be really to spare. And if you're listening 638 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 4: and you are and documented, I understand how petrifying this is, 639 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 4: and just know that, like we're all thinking of you 640 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 4: and hopefully there are people in your life who are 641 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 4: there to help you and to help you get through 642 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 4: a difficult time. 643 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 5: It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 644 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 5: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 645 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 5: coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 646 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 5: Apple Podcasts, or wherever. 647 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 1: You listen to podcasts. You can now find sources for 648 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: it could Happen here, listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks 649 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: for listening.