WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Amy Wu Silverman

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea, Well, the first idea is we

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<v Speaker 2>survived the Taylor Swift drop. Thank you to Amy with

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<v Speaker 2>Silverman for perspective. She's going with daughter, I think fourteen

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<v Speaker 2>or sixteen kids tonight to some theater to see Taylor

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<v Speaker 2>Wax philosophical about the new product. Lisa Mateos saying Taylor's

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<v Speaker 2>clocking in with a net worth over two billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>right now. Good coverage of Thank for the comments pro

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<v Speaker 2>and con to our coverage, and we'll get to Amy

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<v Speaker 2>with Silverman here in a moment. The single best idea

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<v Speaker 2>is never has there been a single best idea like

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<v Speaker 2>this for Jobs Day with a shutdown, we said, we're

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<v Speaker 2>still going to talk to people smart. Claudia Sam joined

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<v Speaker 2>us from New Century Advisors. Claudia Sam on a unique

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<v Speaker 2>Jobs Day.

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<v Speaker 3>This is the time where we come to go every

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<v Speaker 3>month and wait to find out the latest, the best

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<v Speaker 3>reading that we have on what's happened in the labor market,

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<v Speaker 3>and we don't have it today, Like we're not going

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<v Speaker 3>to have that discussion. So that's to me, we're not

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<v Speaker 3>flying blind. There's a lot of information about the economy

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<v Speaker 3>that we're getting, you know, even as the federal government

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<v Speaker 3>has shut down, but we're missing a really important piece

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<v Speaker 3>of information. So our vision is impaired. And what's really

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<v Speaker 3>frustrating is the September employment report exists right like these

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<v Speaker 3>numbers are sitting there. It's just because the workers who

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<v Speaker 3>would normally put that up weren't deemed essential. The big

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<v Speaker 3>thing that we don't have from the private sectors, we

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<v Speaker 3>don't have a measure of slack in the labor market.

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<v Speaker 3>The unemployment rate is one of those you know, fits

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<v Speaker 3>in that measure of like workers looking for work that

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<v Speaker 3>don't have it versus workers who do have work.

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<v Speaker 2>Claudia Sam of New Centery Advisors, maybe in thirty thirty

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<v Speaker 2>one we'll have a jobs report to talk to doctor

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<v Speaker 2>some about. Amy Wo Silverman out of Princeton is absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>brilliant at RBC Capital Markets. When she walks in her

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<v Speaker 2>room on Wall Street, the quant stop, the normal people stop,

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<v Speaker 2>the salespeople stop, and they just listen to Amy Wo

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<v Speaker 2>Silverman on the dynamics of the market. Yeah, we talked

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<v Speaker 2>about Taylor Swift with her and made jokes, but what

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<v Speaker 2>we really talked is about the unique derivative space the

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<v Speaker 2>cross moments and quantitative finance. Here is Amy wo Silverman.

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<v Speaker 1>The big change to me post COVID is you can't

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<v Speaker 1>rely on these traditional correlations, right, You can't rely on

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<v Speaker 1>your heads just being a sixty to forty portfolio. I

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<v Speaker 1>think MAG seven changed a lot of that. And then

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the intercorrelation between MAG seven which has

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<v Speaker 1>then relatively low, and people are scratching their heads and

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<v Speaker 1>they say, how is it that you're all integrated into

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<v Speaker 1>each other's supply chains that yet this correlation isn't that high.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I do think that's why you're seeing these

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<v Speaker 1>different expressions of hedges Tom that weren't necessarily the case

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<v Speaker 1>five years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Emmy was Silverman, and she was brilliant on hedging. Hedging

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<v Speaker 2>is where you own something and you're not confident about

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<v Speaker 2>the direction. Say it's a stock and you want to

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<v Speaker 2>go up, so you buy or acquire protection. You hedge

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<v Speaker 2>your risks by doing some form of strategy where if

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<v Speaker 2>you go down or you don't go up as much,

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<v Speaker 2>you're still protected a little bit. And as Amy was,

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<v Speaker 2>Silverman said, that's a fragile business. Right now, we're on

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<v Speaker 2>podcasts on Apple and Spotify, on YouTube, podcasts, it's single

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<v Speaker 2>best idea