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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Stuart Kaiser of City Group joins us with a really

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Speaker 2: very different outlook is us equity trading strategy?

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Speaker 3: Do you assume after the tensions of back to.

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Speaker 2: School the summer of September rather than that, is there

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Speaker 2: typically a bullmarket rally at the end of the year

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Speaker 2: into November? Is there sort of a dash up typically

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Speaker 2: at the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean typically, seasonally speaking, it's April, November December

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Speaker 4: are kind of your best months of the year. April

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Speaker 4: is obviously big earnings month and everybody gets our tax return,

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Speaker 4: which is nice and if you get them and then

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Speaker 4: then yeah, you do get that year end rally. Typically

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Speaker 4: tech actually does well into the year end. You get

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Speaker 4: the quote unquote budget flush of these big tech tech

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Speaker 4: budgets and that helps. So once we get through September,

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Speaker 4: which is usually a tricky month, it does it does

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Speaker 4: look up.

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Speaker 2: Yet, so smart guys like you are looking at a

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Speaker 2: lot of dynamics pro dynamics, and I want you to

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Speaker 2: address this.

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Speaker 3: We're not extended right now. There isn't this exuberance.

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Speaker 2: There isn't this frenzy when you look at a lot

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Speaker 2: of different mathematics describe that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, I mean there's there are certain areas of

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Speaker 4: the market that do look kind of rich and extended,

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Speaker 4: and that would be more your your AI trade, so

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Speaker 4: to speak. And then you have the rest of the

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Speaker 4: market which which does have space I think for people

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Speaker 4: to rotate into and own. And I think you would

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Speaker 4: argue Tom that like the earnings growth we've seen in

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Speaker 4: that growth AI area like largely justifies you know, the

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Speaker 4: type of rally we've seen in those stocks. So if

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Speaker 4: you are concerned with valuation, you know, you you look

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Speaker 4: at that number and it looks very high historic. But

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Speaker 4: I would argue that right now a lot of that

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Speaker 4: evaluation is being driven by a small cohortive stocks that

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Speaker 4: is generating tremendous amount of earney growth.

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Speaker 5: About small cap and value stocks or they are they

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Speaker 5: going to have their day at any point in our lifetimes.

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Speaker 4: Look, it does feel like we got a little bit

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Speaker 4: of a move in there in August as people kind

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Speaker 4: of tried to broaden out the rally. We think there's

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Speaker 4: a very narrow sort of set of data or narrow

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Speaker 4: channel for those stocks to work, and I think for

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Speaker 4: that to happen, you would need something that looks like

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Speaker 4: a reacceleration in US economic growth. If you look at

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Speaker 4: small business surveys coming into the year, optimism was near

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Speaker 4: a fifty year high. Unfortunately, uncertainty was also nearer fifty

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Speaker 4: year high. So you know, for I think for small

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Speaker 4: cap to work, the ball case would be, we got

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Speaker 4: the new tax and spending package, right, we got you know,

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Speaker 4: a little bit of clarity on tariffs, the immigration stuff

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Speaker 4: is a little bit better known. Once you remove those uncertainty,

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Speaker 4: can that optimism take hold and push you higher? I

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Speaker 4: would say yes if. And the big if is the

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Speaker 4: labor market, and we're going to get a lot of

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Speaker 4: information on that over the course of the next two days.

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Speaker 5: What's the sentiment out there from your perspective when you

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Speaker 5: talk to your institutional clients out there.

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Speaker 4: I think the base case right now, I think is

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Speaker 4: a slowing economy that doesn't go into a recession, inflation

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Speaker 4: that's generally under control, and a couple of ray cuts,

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Speaker 4: and that's a pretty kind of bullish mix positioning Probably

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Speaker 4: now you probably put it as something like eight and

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Speaker 4: a half out of ten. I mean, people are invested

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Speaker 4: and there is a view that the economy is slowing,

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Speaker 4: but it's not going to go into recession. The issue

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Speaker 4: with that is a slowing economy, you start to get

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Speaker 4: down close to those key important levels, whether that's payrolls

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Speaker 4: or other economic data, and when you're near a precipice,

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Speaker 4: you know there is a lot of risk and uncertainty.

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Speaker 4: So I would say maybe cautiously optimistic is the way

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Speaker 4: I put it right now.

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Speaker 2: I loved you in season two Billions. I thought it

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Speaker 2: was really good. Start Kaiser, you hang out in that milieu. Basically,

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Speaker 2: the Somersie geist is retail got it right, the fancy

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Speaker 2: people got it wrong. Let's readjust this September here. What

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Speaker 2: are the hedgsphoes doing, What are the CTA doing? These

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Speaker 2: are trend followers, folks. What are they doing? Do they

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Speaker 2: have a leverage exuberance? What's the tone out of the

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Speaker 2: fancy people?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I think just what you said, a lot of those

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Speaker 4: investors are kind of trend following the one thing this

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Speaker 4: year has not had is a lot of durable trends.

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Speaker 4: Right We've had a lot of very violent reversals in

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Speaker 4: both directions, and that's been really, really painful for a

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Speaker 4: lot of those levered investors. So again, if there's an

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Speaker 4: area where you could add risk right now, it would

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Speaker 4: be in quote unquote leverage and people getting a little

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Speaker 4: bit more confident having that risk on. So look, those investors,

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Speaker 4: I think, as I mentioned what the base case is,

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Speaker 4: the base case is they're generally bullish, but they're in

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Speaker 4: a relatively safer, narrower group of equities, and I think

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Speaker 4: they're going to stay there unless they get really convinced

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Speaker 4: in what I will call kind of the uber Bowl case.

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Speaker 4: And the uber Bowl case is that Corporate America took

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Speaker 4: a siesta in the second quarter because of all the

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Speaker 4: uncertainty that was out there, and now that we have

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Speaker 4: more certainty and you're getting near the end of the

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Speaker 4: year when budgets need to be spent, do you see

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Speaker 4: Corporate America go on a little bit of hiring and

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Speaker 4: spending upturn going into your end. That's not a base case.

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Speaker 4: I think that is your bull caase story. It's going

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Speaker 4: to take some convincing, but I think we saw some

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Speaker 4: early signs of that during the last earning season. So again, Tom,

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Speaker 4: I think people are long, but they're long in a

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Speaker 4: relatively conservative way and they need some evidence to change

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Speaker 4: that view.

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Speaker 2: Stuart, thank you so much. Strict you answer with us

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Speaker 2: a city group. We'll have them on often here. Stay

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Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Constant Hunter, she's with EIU, the Economists Intelligence Unit, a

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Speaker 2: senior advisor micropolicy perspective. The balance now a FED debate

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Speaker 2: and not just the certitude of twenty five beeps coming up,

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Speaker 2: but the inflation labor mandate.

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Speaker 3: What's that balance that teeter totter? What's it look like

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Speaker 3: right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: I mean it's on a knife edge. I mean, as

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Speaker 6: I wrote last month, it's the FED is in this

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Speaker 6: what we would call a sticky wicket, and the sticky

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Speaker 6: wicket is when the grass is wet and the batter

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Speaker 6: doesn't know where the ball is going to bounce.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So it is.

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Speaker 6: This knife edge. And the thing is the FED does

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Speaker 6: not want to see a recession, obviously, but they also

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Speaker 6: don't want to see inflation remain elevated. It has been

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Speaker 6: above their target for months now, years now, and while

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Speaker 6: it was coming down steadily. Where we're seeing the stalling

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Speaker 6: is in the services sector.

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Speaker 2: Get out front of me in a wong coming up here.

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Speaker 2: September ninth, These BLS revisions? Is it?

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Speaker 3: Stephen englunder Wright at Standard Charter, This is a big deal.

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Speaker 6: I mean it is it a big deal? I mean

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Speaker 6: it's always it comes out every year. It's really important

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Speaker 6: to do. If it gets revised. If we see big

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Speaker 6: downward revisions, that changes the picture, right, and it's going

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Speaker 6: to have more weight because the Fed is either on

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Speaker 6: the precipice of doing one rate cut or doing a

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Speaker 6: series of rate cuts, and that is going to tip

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Speaker 6: the scales with regard to how much they move.

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Speaker 5: In your notes, Constancy say, tectonic plate shifts are causing

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Speaker 5: changes to macroeconomic growth drivers? What do you mean by that?

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Speaker 6: So we have so many things that are changing right,

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Speaker 6: We're in the midst of this massive advancement of general

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Speaker 6: purpose technology with AI that is changing the way companies

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Speaker 6: work is the downturn in hiring of new college graduates,

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Speaker 6: because in part of AI is that the economy is,

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Speaker 6: it's the way they're intersecting. We have tectonic plate shifts

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Speaker 6: in terms of how the US government is running both

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Speaker 6: commercial and security policy, which are increasingly intertwined, and not

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Speaker 6: just here but globally. So we're seeing a rise in

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Speaker 6: industrial policy, state nationalism, the US taking a stake in

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Speaker 6: intel for example. This is a tectonic plate shift from

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Speaker 6: the eighty years following World War Two, where the US

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Speaker 6: basically led what we would call a cooperation game amongst

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Speaker 6: its allies in the global economy. Now we see the

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Speaker 6: US retreating from that. We see China ascending. We had

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Speaker 6: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting last week ahead of this

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Speaker 6: military parade in China. We had world leaders there Iran,

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Speaker 6: North Korea, India, Pakistan, Russia. You know, it's a very

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Speaker 6: different type of alliance and China is really trying to

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Speaker 6: fill that void. That is a tectonic plate shift in

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Speaker 6: the global world order.

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Speaker 3: YEP.

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Speaker 5: So what's I mean is is the US economy that

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Speaker 5: fed is it still the key issue for investors globally

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Speaker 5: to focus on or we saw like we saw earlier

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Speaker 5: in the year, you know, some assets leave the US

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Speaker 5: and go to other parts of the world.

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Speaker 6: We are still the largest market, obviously in terms of

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Speaker 6: the economy and in terms of the asset market. Right

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Speaker 6: when you think we have deep in liquid capital markets,

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Speaker 6: the deepest most liquid capital markets. But what you're starting

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Speaker 6: to see globally is this tendency for countries to increase

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Speaker 6: fiscal spending, whether it's on military, whether it's on an

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Speaker 6: older population, right, And so you're seeing the long minds

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Speaker 6: react to this globally. And of course the US is

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Speaker 6: still an attractive place. But how businesses operate in this

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Speaker 6: new global environment I think is going to be very

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Speaker 6: different over the coming decade than it has been for

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Speaker 6: the previous several times, because I mean.

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Speaker 2: We're just a productivity numbers today. Folks are quarterly, they're dated,

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Speaker 2: they're distant, and everyone from Constance Hunter to anyone in

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Speaker 2: productivity will say, you've got to look at three years,

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Speaker 2: five years, ten years tendency. Do you have a handle

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Speaker 2: on what AI and productivity is doing in America or

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Speaker 2: people like you just making it up report to re Well.

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Speaker 6: I will preface this by saying, I don't think economists

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Speaker 6: fully understand productivity. It is the big sort of black

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Speaker 6: hole mystery.

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Speaker 3: I mean total factor productivity.

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Speaker 2: Now my habits with AI have radically changed.

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Speaker 3: It's like ninety four ninety five, am I right? Yes?

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Speaker 6: I was programming a spreadsheet last night and I was like, oh,

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Speaker 6: let me just double check because whatever I'm old, I

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Speaker 6: haven't kept up with all the Excel VBA programming. And

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Speaker 6: I plopped it into chat GPT. I want to program

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Speaker 6: a spreadsheet to woo do this. I need these things

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Speaker 6: that it kind of came up with with the syntax.

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Speaker 6: I plugged it. You know, I created a spreadsheet, I

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Speaker 6: plugged it in, I tested it out.

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Speaker 3: It worked.

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Speaker 6: It took me, I don't know, twenty minutes to get

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Speaker 6: this up and running, whereas you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 6: I didn't even know what the syntax was. I just

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Speaker 6: asked it what I needed it to do.

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Speaker 3: It did it.

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Speaker 6: I double checked it, I eyeballed it. But for that

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Speaker 6: type of thing, it is a game changer in terms

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Speaker 6: of productivity.

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Speaker 2: So should we cut your own here? But should we

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Speaker 2: cut Jerome Powell some slack because of the times we

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Speaker 2: live in.

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Speaker 6: I mean, we should cut Jerome Powell some slack because

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Speaker 6: he is doing a very tremendously difficult job under very

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Speaker 6: difficult servants circumstances, and he is doing it exceptionally well.

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Speaker 6: He is safeguarding that dual mandate and keeping inflation expectations

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Speaker 6: anchored while also being sensitive to the fact that the

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Speaker 6: underbelody of the economy is slowing despite extraordinary resilience.

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Speaker 2: Constance Hunter, thank you so much for the EIU and

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Speaker 2: also with the micropolicy perspectives. Really good perspective there on

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Speaker 2: the dual mandate of a FED.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. E's durn Listen

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Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the bloom Work Business up,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let us switch gears now Monica Gerra with this head

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Speaker 2: of US Policy and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, and it's

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Speaker 2: like this could be like truly a domestic one hour

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Speaker 2: conversation open question to get September started.

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Speaker 3: What's the number.

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Speaker 2: One thing and the linkage of finance to the Washington

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Speaker 2: uproar that you're focused on. What's the paragraph you're focused on.

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Speaker 7: Right now outside of terraffs because that's a whole separate conversation.

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Speaker 7: I would say, honestly, government shutdown because you have to

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Speaker 7: think about more.

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Speaker 3: Likely now right?

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Speaker 7: More likely now? We're really paying attention to that because

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Speaker 7: outside of this uncertainty around debt deficits that then you

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Speaker 7: add in some of the restriction that comes into play

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Speaker 7: around a shutdown that could create some additional volatility. So

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Speaker 7: we're kind of watching the marriage of those two events.

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Speaker 5: So where are we on that. What's the mortgaan standing

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Speaker 5: call in a government shutdown?

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Speaker 7: I'm I would say, I've you know, I don't want

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Speaker 7: to say bullish on it, but but I would say

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Speaker 7: compared to prior instances, there's a higher likelihood today than say,

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Speaker 7: the last time around. Now the one fact we will

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Speaker 7: get a shit that we will get a shutdown.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 7: The one factor that could move the Democrats, you know,

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Speaker 7: forward is if you get a shutdown, then there's the

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Speaker 7: potential for the president to come in and start slashing budgets.

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Speaker 7: Now there is a window there where if they don't

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Speaker 7: move the needle on the budget, they don't get a

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Speaker 7: continued resolution. The president then can come in and cut

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Speaker 7: where he wants.

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Speaker 5: Who gets the I mean, who gets the political blame

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Speaker 5: that the government shuts down? Is it the government? Is

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Speaker 5: it the party that's in power? Is it the opposing party?

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Speaker 5: How does that play out? Because it's got to be

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Speaker 5: huge political ramification.

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Speaker 7: Typically it's the opposing party, right if you're if you're saying,

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Speaker 7: you know, we have this agenda, they're not coming to

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Speaker 7: the table. What you normally see historically is that Democrats

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Speaker 7: tend to be the good government, you know types in

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Speaker 7: the sense of not the GOP is not good government,

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Speaker 7: but in the sense that you know they're not They're

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Speaker 7: not willing to go as far on political brinksmanship in

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Speaker 7: some instances, especially as it relates to government shutdown. And

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Speaker 7: that's really led by a Schumer and sort of Pelosi culture. Now,

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Speaker 7: what we saw in this last the last time where

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Speaker 7: earlier this year, where Schumer did push the party right

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Speaker 7: to to move forward on a continuing resolution, you got

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Speaker 7: a backlash from Democrats right from the actual voting base.

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Speaker 7: So I think that there's a real tension here that

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Speaker 7: Democrats haven't faced previously, where they're looking for hardball versus

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Speaker 7: you know, dealing with the political realities that it could

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Speaker 7: give actually the White House more leverage to cut tariffs.

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Speaker 5: It looks like they are going to the courts. Yes,

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Speaker 5: how are you guys kind of playing this out now?

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Speaker 7: So for us we are base case is that tariffs

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Speaker 7: are likely to have and it's just how and how

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Speaker 7: much Supreme Court We do think that it's likely to

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Speaker 7: rule in favor right of the president. If not, there

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Speaker 7: are any other sections of tariff law that they can

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Speaker 7: use right there. They're looking to other federal authorities as

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Speaker 7: well as we speak. You know that they've said that

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Speaker 7: out loud right, that this is something that they're not

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Speaker 7: going to let drop.

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Speaker 3: From where you.

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Speaker 2: Set with your one, Monica, with your wonderful skull, I've

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Speaker 2: got to get the same We've got a ADP folks

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Speaker 2: at one minute.

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Speaker 3: But Monica greerre do you from where you sit?

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Speaker 2: Is there a basic idea here of the judiciary to

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Speaker 2: the rescue? I mean, every time I look at my phone,

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Speaker 2: there's another court case, you know, whatever? Is that what

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Speaker 2: we're going to live within it. Here's no's endless court cases.

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Speaker 7: I think with this environment, yes, because you have an

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Speaker 7: administration that's willing to want tools right, and when you

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Speaker 7: use one tools, you're missing some of the nuance that

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Speaker 7: then gets adjudicated right and gets taken to the courts.

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Speaker 7: So I think in this administration, we're going to continue

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Speaker 7: to see more.

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Speaker 3: Monica think you so much. Too short a visit.

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Speaker 2: We got to go to economic data here to start

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Speaker 2: a busy labor week for Ellen Zentner and others. Monica

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Speaker 2: Guerre has had a US policy in Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

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Speaker 3: Too short a visit. Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: This is Joy.

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Speaker 2: Then McMillan with us with IDx Advisors, and I want

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Speaker 2: to go into the gold angle here in a moment,

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Speaker 2: but I want to.

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Speaker 3: Explain to people like Imperial College in.

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Speaker 2: London is sort of like Celtech, you know, mit, like

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Speaker 2: the grind and awe, there is no grind Paul in London,

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Speaker 2: like econometrics at the London School of Economics, like the

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Speaker 2: undergraduate course which I've enjoyed, is brutal. It's where they

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Speaker 2: we add people out. Everybody goes off to international relations.

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Speaker 2: What was it like a graduate degree in economics at

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Speaker 2: the sweatshop known as LLS.

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Speaker 3: That's very accurate. Grind is the appropriate term there. It was.

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Speaker 8: I always make the joke, I know what it's like

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Speaker 8: to be in the LLC library, you know, on Christmas Day,

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Speaker 8: you know, because it's it's it's just a lot of studying.

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Speaker 8: You know. The other thing too, a lot of people

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Speaker 8: don't realize is it's probably still this way is the

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Speaker 8: end of year exams one hundred percent of your grade.

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Speaker 3: So you got to show up and have a good day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're me sitting there when you get the

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Speaker 2: differential equations and I just put an extra.

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Speaker 3: Movie, got Yeah.

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Speaker 2: That's how brut it's Ben McMillan, with this was all

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Speaker 2: that academic ability. You are a tangential to Vanak, who

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Speaker 2: literally invented how modern Americans invest in gold? How are

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Speaker 2: we investing in gold in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think the big conversation there is to just

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Speaker 8: put gold back on the map for a lot of investors.

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Speaker 8: I mean, we've had conversations coming into twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty four where a lot of you know, a

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Speaker 8: lot of clients, a lot of investors were still kind

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Speaker 8: of looking at it as a less interesting asset class.

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Speaker 8: And of course somebody sent me the Bloomberg chart yesterday

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Speaker 8: of foreign central bank holdings of treasuries were gold going

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Speaker 8: back to the eighties. And for the first time since

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Speaker 8: the mid nineties, foreign central banks are now holding more

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Speaker 8: gold than treasuries. So this is a secular time, and

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Speaker 8: this is this is a powerful shift, and it goes

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Speaker 8: back to the kind of the roots of Van.

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Speaker 3: Eck Austrian economics.

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Speaker 8: You know, when when the fiscal deficits and debt gets

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Speaker 8: too high, you know, montary machine goes off the rails.

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Speaker 3: Gold is the safe haven quick aside.

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Speaker 2: My book of the fall will be cast Sunstein on liberalism,

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Speaker 2: cast Sunstein writing up with love for Hayek in the

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Speaker 2: Austrian school of economics, nobody.

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Speaker 3: Saw that coming. We'll do that with cast Sunstein here

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Speaker 3: in the coming weeks. Ben look at your notes here.

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Speaker 5: Gold has doubled since twenty twenty three and could double

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Speaker 5: from here over the next five years. What's what's going

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Speaker 5: on there?

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Speaker 8: So again, it's I think the big thing to keep

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Speaker 8: in mind there. And you know, we were kind of

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Speaker 8: pounding the table on gold, not because they're gold bugs,

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Speaker 8: but we just saw a symmetri structural asymmetry in that trade.

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Speaker 8: And I'm reluctant to even reference it as a trade

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Speaker 8: because again we think it's kind of a secular change

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Speaker 8: in the world monetary order and manyway it's kind of

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Speaker 8: the other side of the bond vigilantes coin. You know, Actually,

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Speaker 8: Tom you on the show a couple of months ago, said,

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Speaker 8: is the gold market sending us a signal? And it

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Speaker 8: absolutely is, And it's the same signal the bond vigilantes

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Speaker 8: are sending us. And unless you know, when you look

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Speaker 8: at kind of G seven, it's not just America. You

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Speaker 8: know what's going on with long yields across the G

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Speaker 8: seven nations. You know, all of that really argues for

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Speaker 8: gold as a safe haven. There's a lot of factors

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Speaker 8: there at play, not the least of which, too, is

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Speaker 8: I think a lot of the shine coming off the dollar,

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Speaker 8: and we've obviously seen the dollar come off of a

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Speaker 8: you know, twelve or thirteen year bull run. But the

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Speaker 8: guest from acquired doctor Wiseman, I think summed it up

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Speaker 8: very perfectly where we talked about, you know, dollars now

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Speaker 8: moving from you know, ordered liberty to manage chaos, and

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Speaker 8: I think even that's part of people now looking at

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Speaker 8: US dollars no longer as the safe haven that they

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Speaker 8: once were and finding refuge in gold.

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Speaker 5: How about silver. I'm just looking at silver on my

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Speaker 5: g LCO Global Commodities price chart here function on the

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Speaker 5: Bloomer trambline. It's yer this year.

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Speaker 8: Silver is interesting because you know, silver and the Van

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Speaker 8: guys will tell you this has always been kind of

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Speaker 8: interesting because there's a more robust industrial use case there.

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Speaker 8: And I think, you know, in particular, if you look

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Speaker 8: at the silver to gold ratio, which is, you know,

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Speaker 8: one of the dozens of indicators we look to look at,

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Speaker 8: it was you know, comparatively undervalued relative to gold, you

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Speaker 8: know historically, So there's kind of a technical basis there

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Speaker 8: for an uplift. But I think also equally interesting is

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Speaker 8: when you look at a lot of the Chinese demand

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Speaker 8: for solar panels, which they've got to you know, Jijiping

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Speaker 8: has big plans for solar These are new types of

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Speaker 8: solar panels that are going to use more silver going forward.

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Speaker 8: So I think that industrial use case now also has

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Speaker 8: a bit under it. But again, when you know, when

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Speaker 8: silver and gold start moving in tandem like that, that's

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Speaker 8: also the signal. You know that the bond vigilantwers were

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Speaker 8: sending us that this is inflation safe haven.

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Speaker 2: So you got to price move it up. What's the

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Speaker 2: persistency of gold held its central banks? Like is that

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Speaker 2: a forever hold or do you like sit up and

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Speaker 2: I go omg, the bank to France is going to sell.

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Speaker 8: Well, that is the big question, and that's one of

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Speaker 8: the reasons we're more secularly bullish on this kind of

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Speaker 8: shift in the demand curve is because again, if central

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Speaker 8: banks are buying at this at this rate, it's that's

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Speaker 8: a shift that's unlikely to turn around, you know, anytime soon.

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Speaker 8: This is you know, they're selling treasuries, they're accumulating gold.

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Speaker 8: You know, this is this is a bigger This isn't

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Speaker 8: a bet that a speculator is making or even if

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00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 8: you look at ETF flows, you know, that's obviously more

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Speaker 8: speculatively driven. This this logistically looks and feels much more

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00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 8: secular in nature.

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Speaker 3: We mentioned Van earlier.

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00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 2: The heritage shows like it was like John Templeton and

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00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 2: global investing, this was all new odd John Vaneck invented

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00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: it all and at that time, mothers held Kruger rands

447
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: in their dresser drawer. Are we back to that emotion?

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00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 8: I think so to some degree. And you're you know,

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00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 8: in the conversations we're having with clients. You know, I

450
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 8: had a conversation with the client yesterday and he's talking about,

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00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 8: you know, buying ten ounce silver bars, and so you know,

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00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 8: there is a very costco costco now exactly. So there's

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00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 8: there's that's very much back in the zeitgeist of just

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00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 8: kind of holding you know, American eagle coins or silver

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Speaker 8: bars under the mattress, so to speak.

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Speaker 3: Is there never too much econometrics?

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00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 8: I can I can attest there's absolutely too much econometrics.

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Speaker 3: And that's that's that's It's a folks, This is.

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00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 2: A joke making joke here, but a lot of this

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00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 2: comes out of the incredible academics. Good morning, Canada and

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00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: British Columbia. But a lot of people look at this

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00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 2: stuff and I've talked to Angel about it. The Nobel

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00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 2: Laureate and why you're Robert Engel, But you know, I

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00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: really wonder the value of the micromathiness of econometrics in

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00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 2: the day to day grind.

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Speaker 8: Well, I'll tell you Nobel Laureate. You know, Robert Engel,

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00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 8: we that was my that was part of my thesis

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00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 8: at LSE. You know, for those that don't know, he

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00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 8: was instrumental in developing a kind of a novel volatility

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00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 8: model and we still use derivations of that in our

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Speaker 8: models TA.

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00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 3: Scarch every day.

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Speaker 8: Absolutely absolutely, I got goosebumpsas I can remember when I

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Speaker 8: was coming down in flames with Garsh.

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Speaker 3: You know, we'll have to.

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Speaker 2: See Ben, this has been brilliant. Don't be a stranger.

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00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 2: Ben McMillan with us with IDx Advisors, can't say enough

478
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 2: about the interesting dovetail here, what's going on in gold

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00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 2: and going on and fixed income with yields up.

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484
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