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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's good there all right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 4: Spreading the corn ten seconds or maining.

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Speaker 3: So they're just gonna show under the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's not a seven second.

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Speaker 4: It's the crew for the wind.

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Speaker 5: God theig go a miracle. I'd it's the water hit,

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Speaker 5: that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Shuck it all at college basketball.

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Speaker 5: It's not the size on the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 5: it's the size of the fight in the dog. What's

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Speaker 5: up the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 5: This is the NCAA Tournament Elite eight betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 5: Stucky in with me as always is Colin Wilson and

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Speaker 5: Mike Randall. Coming to you live from Monday Morning com.

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Speaker 5: What's going on?

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Speaker 4: Today is the day ark I saw Razors. Woopig Sue.

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Speaker 4: We have our chance to go to the final four.

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Speaker 4: Spread that is rising. Not a good sign if you're

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Speaker 4: a razorback. But today is the day. I'm excited.

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Speaker 1: Woo pig Suey.

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Speaker 2: Randall, It's great, man, Elite Eight's here. We missed it

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Speaker 2: for two years. We have four fantastic games. Upsets galore,

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Speaker 2: craziness On Sunday, Man but that's what makes it great.

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Speaker 2: Just incredible stuff all around. And we got two big

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Speaker 2: time games today. Absolutely, man, go Razorbacks. I'm on board

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Speaker 2: at this point.

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Speaker 5: Four Elite eight games, all four with spreads of seven

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Speaker 5: and a half or more.

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Speaker 3: Doubt we've ever seen that before.

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Speaker 5: We're going to get into all four games to today

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Speaker 5: to tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Before we do, let's go around the horn.

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Speaker 5: Do you get a chance to yell, scream, complain, whatever

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Speaker 5: you want to talk about.

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Speaker 6: Good teams win and great teams cover. Put some teams

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Speaker 6: you neither. This is thanks for nothing.

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Speaker 3: We really did, Jack, I'll start.

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Speaker 5: I'll start with Alabama second half. Still not ever that

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Speaker 5: one the usually I can get over losses quick. Look,

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Speaker 5: I've had a magical march, magical run.

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Speaker 3: The regression wants was gonna come.

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Speaker 5: Get me eventually, and that was just as brutal as

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Speaker 5: it gets.

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Speaker 3: First of all, I have no idea Obama lost that game.

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Speaker 5: What did they shot eleven of twenty five for the line,

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Speaker 5: twenty five percent from three, But just the second half,

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Speaker 5: just don't make at the heave and then you cover

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Speaker 5: the second half instead, you make the heave at the buzzer.

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Speaker 5: It was gonna be like the magical moment of the

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Speaker 5: tournament so far. If Alabama wins that game in overtime.

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Speaker 5: By the way jus X filed out, underdog that gives

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Speaker 5: up that shot, ninety nine percent of the time dies

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Speaker 5: in overtime.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know how U s I did.

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Speaker 5: But that made me sick. I was with a friend

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Speaker 5: who had way too much money on it. I was

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Speaker 5: sick for him, sick for myself. And I mean, make

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Speaker 5: some free throws, Alabama, Lord and then or I mean

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Speaker 5: the Pac twelve. We got three Pac twelve teams in

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Speaker 5: the Elite eight. Oregon State had a less than one

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Speaker 5: percent chance of winning the past three games. No one

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Speaker 5: could hit a three against them per shot quarter. They

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Speaker 5: should have lost the last game against Little By seventeen.

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Speaker 3: But good for the take on the beaters. We have

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Speaker 3: a lot of Pac twelve we're gonna get to. But

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Speaker 3: Alabama's second half was vicious.

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Speaker 1: Here it just means more.

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Speaker 5: But you do this long enough, you're gonna have to

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Speaker 5: deal with losses like that, and you have to move on.

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Speaker 5: We have four to six seven games left. It's no

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Speaker 5: time to dwell on the past. But I will give

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Speaker 5: you the opportunity to do just that. Randall, anything from

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Speaker 5: this weekend that you want to get off your chest.

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Speaker 2: Sunday was brutal for me. When we cap these games.

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Speaker 2: What we want is something that is reasonable to our expectations.

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Speaker 2: We don't want our liars. We don't want for example,

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Speaker 2: and we can talk about Alabama forever. My wife is

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Speaker 2: screaming at the television this game is raged. Somebody's got

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Speaker 2: money because she wants to charge at the end of

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Speaker 2: the game, all the stuff.

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Speaker 4: I don't want.

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Speaker 2: Isaiah White, who averages seven points per game and single

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Speaker 2: digits in twelve of his last fourteen games, to have

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Speaker 2: twenty two points and four or five from three point

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Speaker 2: range with ten minutes left. And it just seemed like

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Speaker 2: on Sunday there was a ton of those outliers along

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Speaker 2: the way. And listen, Saturday was great. Oregon stays hot.

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Speaker 2: That's fantastic, LOYALI Chicago regressed a little bit. All that's good.

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Speaker 2: But that's the thing that drives you nuts is when

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Speaker 2: you have these situations. Jules Binard just catching fire at

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Speaker 2: the end of the first half against Alabama to keep

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Speaker 2: them in it after Tiger Campbell gets in foul troubles.

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Speaker 2: Those outliers occur, and we love them. We love them

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Speaker 2: when they happen in our favor, but we don't love

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Speaker 2: them when they happen against us. I don't know how

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Speaker 2: Alabama didn't get to the windows.

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Speaker 4: So frustrating, unbelievable cons making a sweep on that game.

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Speaker 4: I was the one holding the under one forty six,

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Speaker 4: felt like, I don't nail that you can win. I mean, guys,

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Speaker 4: I mean I went on the Action Network like March

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Speaker 4: Madness Show yesterday and I said I was more comfortable

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Speaker 4: having an under in UCLA and Alabama because I didn't

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Speaker 4: think overtime was as close of a probability as it

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Speaker 4: was in USC and Oregon. I couldn't have been more wrong.

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Speaker 3: I forgot. I totally forgot that you had the under too. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: if you have the under second half Alabama to win.

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Speaker 3: I was, Yeah, that game wasn't fun. That the shot

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Speaker 3: was unbelievable. I was.

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Speaker 5: I was just ready to count my ticket and I

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Speaker 5: was writing off Alabama money line and yeah, that shot.

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Speaker 3: Did you know favors either.

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Speaker 6: March Madness has finally returned, and there's only one.

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Speaker 1: Way to celebrate. Let's get gambling.

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Speaker 5: Gambling, But let's get into these games. God, we're gonna

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Speaker 5: make you wait. Arkansas is the second game. We're gonna

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Speaker 5: start with Oregon State Houston. Houston is a seven and

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Speaker 5: a half point favorite over under one twenty nine. Is

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Speaker 5: dipped down a tad. This Oregon State team. They're shooting

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Speaker 5: I think forty four percent from three during the tournament.

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Speaker 5: I think forty five percent from three since the start

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Speaker 5: of the Pac twelve tournament. Opponents are shooting twenty four

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Speaker 5: percent from three since the start of the Pack twelve tournament.

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Speaker 5: The three point luck is going to You would think

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Speaker 5: it doesn't necessarily mean it has to happen, but you

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Speaker 5: would think it's gonna catch up to them eventually. I

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Speaker 5: think that Houston preparing for Syracuse is gonna help them here.

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Speaker 5: Pare for that zone. You're gonna see a bunch of

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Speaker 5: zones here against Oregon State. There are some paths to

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Speaker 5: success for Oregon State other than just hoping for more

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Speaker 5: three point shooting luck. They try to get to the

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Speaker 5: foul line a lot. They'd live there. They try to

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Speaker 5: live on the offensive glass. Houston very aggressive defense. You

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Speaker 5: can get to They're gonna get to the line, and

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Speaker 5: can they get Houston in foul trouble. It's very difficult

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Speaker 5: for me to see Oregon State winning this game.

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Speaker 3: Can they cover? Sure?

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Speaker 5: I think it'll come down to three point shooting. I

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Speaker 5: make this game right around seven and a half or eight.

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Speaker 5: I probably will not have a playoff a pregame. So

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Speaker 5: curious to get to your thoughts, right, I'll start with you.

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Speaker 2: I think it's too high.

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Speaker 3: Again.

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Speaker 2: We continue to view Oregon State through the prism of

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Speaker 2: the twelve seed, and we view Houston through the prism

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Speaker 2: of the two seed. Houston did a fantastic job against Syracuse.

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Speaker 2: The two things that I didn't think they were going

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Speaker 2: to be able to do is I did not think

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Speaker 2: they were going to be able to score enough to

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Speaker 2: win that game. I did not think that gorm who

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Speaker 2: had a big game inside Fabe White gave him some minutes.

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Speaker 2: They did limit Quentin Grimes. I didn't think they would

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Speaker 2: score enough, and I thought that Syracuse would find other

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Speaker 2: ways to score. So I thought it'd be like in

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Speaker 2: the fifties, and I thought Syracuse would would be closer

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Speaker 2: or eke out a win. In this situation, those anceelarty

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Speaker 2: players for Houston are not going to be able to

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Speaker 2: do that Altische Silva inside. I don't think they're going

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Speaker 2: to have as much success. And the difference with the

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Speaker 2: Oregon State is Buddy Beheim is catch and shoot, and

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Speaker 2: Houston took that away no problem. You guys nailed it

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Speaker 2: on the pregame show on the Sweet sixteen show where

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Speaker 2: you talked about the prop to twenty two and a

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Speaker 2: half points of Buddy Beheim way too high to go

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Speaker 2: against Houston. Ethan Thompson is playing at a different level.

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Speaker 2: He's attacking the basket off the dribble, he's turning his shoulder,

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Speaker 2: he's nailing his threes. Lucas had two fouls against Loyler Chicago,

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Speaker 2: so he was limited. I think he comes back and

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Speaker 2: has a good game. So that's my issue. I just

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Speaker 2: don't think Houston, besides Grimes hitting bombs and the putbacks

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Speaker 2: and the aggression and the rebounds inside, is going to

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Speaker 2: do anything here against Oregon State. I think they'll battle.

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Speaker 2: I think they'll play tough defense. But I do think

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Speaker 2: these points are way too high. People are waiting for

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Speaker 2: Oregon State to just fall off a cliff here. Folks,

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Speaker 2: there are twelve seed because the majority of the season

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Speaker 2: they did not play well, Tinkle is scheming. They did

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Speaker 2: a great job against the Loyler Chicago. Loyl in Chicago

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Speaker 2: is so good. Moser is so good at defending how

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Speaker 2: you come off a screen that he's going to defend

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Speaker 2: you on the drives and wait for you to extend

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Speaker 2: those arms to take the charges he got. Oregon State

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Speaker 2: got into that area, they saw what was going on

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Speaker 2: and they adjusted. I think it's a close game either way.

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Speaker 2: I think the eight points is way too high. We're

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Speaker 2: going to go with the old low scoring games. Take

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Speaker 2: the points, and that's what I'm gonna do here. I

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Speaker 2: understand that the regression is gonna come. I just don't

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Speaker 2: see how Houston again is going to be able to

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Speaker 2: score with bombs from three and put backs inside. I

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Speaker 2: think Oregon State is going to be tougher for them.

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Speaker 2: Loyalist Chicago does not play as great as schedule as

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Speaker 2: Oregon State. The team's obviously the Pac twelve really good

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Speaker 2: this year, So maybe we undervalue the schedule for Oregon State.

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Speaker 2: And I think Thompson and Lucas will be able to

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Speaker 2: do things that Buddy Beeheim and company could not. So

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Speaker 2: I like Oregon State.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I would I don't see a ton

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Speaker 5: of value in the number, but I do lean under here.

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Speaker 5: These are two slow teams. I think this is this

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Speaker 5: game could be not the prettiest to watch. And when

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Speaker 5: you're talking about catching seven and a half eight points

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Speaker 5: in a game that I would lean under one twenty

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Speaker 5: nine in, that's always going to be tempting. And look,

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Speaker 5: it's one of the things that I still am having

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Speaker 5: difficulty with.

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Speaker 3: It's how good is the PAC twelve? Right?

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Speaker 5: Like Oregon State has benefited from some luck, so as UCLA,

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Speaker 5: but the results speak for themselves.

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Speaker 3: You have three pack twelve teams in the ely date.

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Speaker 3: By the way, you bring up Lolo Chicago Illinois died

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Speaker 3: for that. Oh, I have to have to throw that

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Speaker 3: out there.

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Speaker 2: Colin.

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Speaker 3: What do you see in this game?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I kind of fell into if you

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Speaker 4: want to call it a trap. We'll figure it out

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Speaker 4: that the regression is going to come for Oregon State mostly.

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Speaker 4: I mean it's both sides of the ball. Their defensive

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Speaker 4: points per possession is like they've had their best three

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Speaker 4: games in the tournament here, So it's not just that

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Speaker 4: their offensive shooting has been red hot seven of their

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Speaker 4: last nine and they've been above their season mark of

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Speaker 4: thirty five percent, So I mean, they really are on

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Speaker 4: a shooting tear right now. But on the other side

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Speaker 4: of the ball, what people don't see is that, you know,

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Speaker 4: defensive points per possession, they're clipping at their highest rate

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Speaker 4: of the entire season. So you know, it's one of

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Speaker 4: those things, is it is it for real or is

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Speaker 4: it not? And then I just can't get over. Like

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Speaker 4: you know Randall mentioned, is the offensive rebounding edge that

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Speaker 4: Houston has here and there should be plenty of tap

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Speaker 4: backs and you know, their top twenty five and three

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Speaker 4: point defense on the perimeter, and so I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: Houston has a path to crush them. But you know,

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Speaker 4: at the same time, I can't figure out if this

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Speaker 4: defensive surgeence that the Beavers have had, if it's real

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Speaker 4: or not, because these you know, defensive points per possession

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Speaker 4: suggests this is the best they've been all season.

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Speaker 2: And one more thing, guys, Houston, wonderful Samson, amazing job.

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Speaker 2: But again, are we sure that Houston has beat quality opponents,

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Speaker 2: has enough experience beating quality opponents to get here? They

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Speaker 2: beat a fifteen in Cleveland State, they beat a ten

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Speaker 2: and Rutgers, and they've beaten eleven in Syracusan during the season,

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Speaker 2: only one quad one win and that was Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: back in November. I mean, they struggled against Memphis who

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Speaker 2: didn't make the tournament. So again, I'm just questioning them

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Speaker 2: against a high quality opponent. And I know that we

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Speaker 2: still view Oregon State as this PAC twelve bottom feeder.

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Speaker 2: They are not right now, not anymore, They're clicking.

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Speaker 3: I mean, how good was the AAC.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: You could have legitimate questions there about Houston. So fascinating

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Speaker 5: game from many different angles I would lean under. I

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Speaker 5: think the line is about right. You got arguments for

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Speaker 5: both sides here. If you I'll be looking at the

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Speaker 5: second half here, So make sure you follow along on

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Speaker 5: Action Network app and Actionnetwork dot Com.

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Speaker 7: Now back to the show.

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Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the second game tonight, and.

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Speaker 3: I'll try to get out of Collin's way.

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Speaker 5: Here to let him get his thoughts in as much

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Speaker 5: as he wants. Arkansas Baylor. This is broy the game

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Speaker 5: most people are looking forward to the most. Tonight, Baylor

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Speaker 5: is a seven and a half point favorite. Total one

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Speaker 5: point forty eight has ticked down a point or two.

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Speaker 5: They looks like they're back. We saw it against Leanova.

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Speaker 5: It looks like their defenses back their legs. They had

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Speaker 5: a week off before the tournament. They had a week

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Speaker 5: off before this weekend. That has only helped. They weren't

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Speaker 5: practicing during COVID. We we've talked about it ad nauseam.

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Speaker 5: They came back, the defense wasn't the same. They just

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Speaker 5: looked a step slow, specifically on defense. And now you

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Speaker 5: don't really see that. Now it looks like the pre

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Speaker 5: COVID elite Baylor team Arkansas really good survived.

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Speaker 3: That orl Robert Shott.

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Speaker 5: I wish we had a camera of Colin had that

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Speaker 5: shot and where he was laying on the floor of

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Speaker 5: his house.

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Speaker 3: So God, I'll start with you first.

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Speaker 5: You got to update us on where you were and

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Speaker 5: how that was its slow motion, that shot going up,

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Speaker 5: and then give me your thoughts on this game.

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Speaker 1: Woo pig suye. Colin's talking razorback basketball.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was in the backyard. I was on the ground.

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Speaker 4: Let's just say I it was like, I don't know

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Speaker 4: there it was like my life, my entire sports life,

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Speaker 4: flashing in front of me. As that clean shot on

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Speaker 4: that clean camera angle got let go. I thought our

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Speaker 4: tournament life was done. We would be back to being

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Speaker 4: the butt of jokes. People would never forget, oh are

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Speaker 4: you probably for the length of the rest of my

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Speaker 4: lifetime and for some time in my kid's life. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: that was I mean, that's two games in a row

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Speaker 4: that it's you know, it's it's just been high anxiety

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Speaker 4: and these games have been Uh, it's been fantastic to

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Speaker 4: watch for Arkansas. It's really great to hear and to

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Speaker 4: see around, you know, the social media world that like

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Speaker 4: people know that the Arkansas game is going to be

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Speaker 4: a barn burner, like they know that it's going to

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Speaker 4: be high quality fun to watch. Some of these have

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Speaker 4: been duds, so it's it's been great to have the

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Speaker 4: added excitement around the game that you know you study

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Speaker 4: and love the most. So you know, hopefully I'm not

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Speaker 4: on the ground tonight. I have a I have a

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Speaker 4: safer plan to stay in my chair. This one, I

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Speaker 4: think is is just it's sort of the same, but

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Speaker 4: it's different. And when I say that Baylor runs a

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Speaker 4: defense and no middle defense just like Texas Tech does,

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Speaker 4: so it's the same as in Arkansas and MuSCs have

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Speaker 4: already seen this, and then it's different as in it

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Speaker 4: may be a lot faster than Texas Tech. The pace

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Speaker 4: here may really kick up. And the strength of Baylor

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Speaker 4: comes in their four guards Jared Butler, David Mitchell, makes

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Speaker 4: showed tigue, and Adam Flager. I mean they're excellent long

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Speaker 4: distance shooters, they can attack the rim. They are a

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Speaker 4: lot like what Arkansas is with their guards, and it's

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Speaker 4: mission critical for Arkansas to play great defense at the

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Speaker 4: guard position. And Jad Nottay is seventy third in the

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Speaker 4: country and steals, which is great. And Jalen Tate and

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Speaker 4: Moses Moody are both six foot six, and Devo Davis

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Speaker 4: has been just the biggest star.

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Speaker 6: Moses Moody little rock Lightning.

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Speaker 4: But those four have to have their best defensive day

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Speaker 4: on the season to get this upset. Here. Baylor's second

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Speaker 4: in the nation in three point percentage and they fire

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Speaker 4: away at a top fifty rate. So here we go,

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Speaker 4: just like you know, Oral Roberts with a team that

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Speaker 4: loves to shoot the three as much as possible. And

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Speaker 4: I think there's good news from the perimeter defense from

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Speaker 4: the Hogs. I'd been kind of chirping that, you know,

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00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,720
Speaker 4: we're on a downward trend here about their defense on

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Speaker 4: the perimeter. But Oral Roberts fired thirty one times and

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Speaker 4: only connected on eight of them. So it was at

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Speaker 4: least a positive encouraging sign that at least they, you know,

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Speaker 4: affected some shots. And this was Arkansas's best perimeter game

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Speaker 4: in the last six outings. Baylor, I know we're supposed

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Speaker 4: to say they're back. I've been looking at their trending

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Speaker 4: metrics because we've been wondering off the COVID pause, like

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Speaker 4: when was the defense going to come back from a

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Speaker 4: points per possession. I mean, it has come back against

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Speaker 4: Wisconsin and Villanova, but that was also the two slowest

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Speaker 4: games of the season, and they kind of ended their

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Speaker 4: regular season slate against some snails against you know, Texas Tech,

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Speaker 4: West Virginia, Kansas State. So it's really hard to gauge,

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Speaker 4: like is this Baylor team slower and more efficient or

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Speaker 4: is it just because of the people that they've been playing.

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Speaker 4: So you know, what I do know is that Baylor's

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Speaker 4: top one hundred and offensive tempo and that should equal

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Speaker 4: a pretty toward start with Arkansas. And I do like

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Speaker 4: the over here up to one point fifty one. I

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Speaker 4: think the question is, I mean, the one thing that

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Speaker 4: we're absolutely sure of is that we are buying the

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Speaker 4: razorback dip. We're not laying any pregame on Arkansas whatsoever.

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Speaker 4: There's going to be a TV timeout dip, and when

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Speaker 4: that happens, we're going to take our one unit on Arkansas.

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Speaker 4: And I think the question is is have the players

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Speaker 4: figured out that we just can't settle for jump, that

389
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 4: we can't you know, we have to bust this no

390
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Speaker 4: middle zone. Are we going to take what they give

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Speaker 4: us or are we going to try to attack the

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Speaker 4: rim because everything for Arkansas gets better when we attack

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Speaker 4: the rim. So I just I thought we were going

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Speaker 4: to attack the rim against Arl Roberts from the start,

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Speaker 4: and that's where the You know, it was an easy

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Speaker 4: cover for for anybody that back to Oral Roberts because

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Speaker 4: Arkansas it took them until in the second half to

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Speaker 4: start attacking the basket. So we'll see how long it

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Speaker 4: takes to figure that out, because that is the key

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Speaker 4: to winning this game.

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Speaker 5: I agree with a lot well you said, I think

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Speaker 5: that from the n eye testes from what you see,

403
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 5: does look like to me that bails back. But huge

404
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 5: enormous athletic advantage against Wisconsin.

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Speaker 3: Same with Villanova.

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Speaker 5: And remember this is Villanova team that was without Colin Lesti, Right,

407
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 5: you could just sit in a game. Wasn't that fast.

408
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 5: There's not gonna be a huge athletic advantage for Baylor

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Speaker 5: in this game on the perimeter. So yeah, I'm going

410
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 5: to be targeting that Arkansas depth, like we say it

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00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,239
Speaker 5: under twelve, under eight time out. When Arkansas has went

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00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 5: down thirty one in this game, we can get them

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00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 5: nice juicy number live So obviously not thirty one. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: there's down double digits. It's what Arkansas has done all year.

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Speaker 5: So I would also lean over with you. I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: be looking. I mean the line. For me, I think

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00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 5: I'm around seven and a half right where that think

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00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,680
Speaker 5: the market is right now. So not a game I'm

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Speaker 5: running to bat. But yeah, we can get Arkansas plus

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Speaker 5: double digits, and then I like some of the things

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Speaker 5: that I'm seeing because yeah, let's see what Baylor looks

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00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 5: like in a faster game against a team that can

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Speaker 5: match up with them athletically.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, under that, under twelve, under eight, media.

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Speaker 5: Timeout, see if we can get a nice juicy number

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Speaker 5: on the Hogs randall bring you in here, what say you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 2: It was a great win for Arkansas. Davis and Tate

429
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 2: were huge for them, and Mooney could not get going

430
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 2: for a while, but of course he's their go to

431
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Speaker 2: guy down the stretch. The thing that concerns me, and

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00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: I like Arkansas in this game. The thing that concerns

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00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 2: me is I don't know if they can afford to

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00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 2: have yet another dip against Baylor. The way they're playing

435
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: defense when they play Texas Tech and Colin that's a

436
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 2: great comparison with the Styles teams. When they played Texas

437
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: Tech and beat him by two in a couple of

438
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 2: days ago. Texas Tech shot ten of twenty from three

439
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,640
Speaker 2: point range in that game. Now, Baylor has not been

440
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,919
Speaker 2: shooting great from beyond the arc. Jared Butler sometimes he

441
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: is a talented guy, just a special player, but he

442
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 2: does let the game come to him a little bit.

443
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 2: He does get impose as well. So if Baylor comes

444
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 2: out can't make threes at the rate that they can

445
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: and certainly number one team shooting threes in the country,

446
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 2: they have the potential, and Jared Butler is more passive

447
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 2: as he is sometimes early on, Arkansas may be able

448
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 2: to overcome that slow start and actually get up here.

449
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: If they can do that, I think they're in great shape.

450
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: I just don't know if you want to be down

451
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 2: against the Baylor team that is finally gotten over the

452
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 2: COVID Hayes. I don't know if you want to get

453
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 2: down twelve to fifteen points to Baylor and bank on

454
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: the miracle comeback. I think that's a problem. I think

455
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 2: Muslim's got to scheme something here to try to get

456
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 2: him started and get him going. Because you're playing a

457
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 2: different caliber. They can get Baylor up and down the floor.

458
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: They can get Baylor, you know, for some turnovers, and

459
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 2: the rebounding inside will be strong. So they have the

460
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,959
Speaker 2: style and the roster to match up here with Baylor.

461
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 2: I just want to see them come out and look

462
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: as much as I mentioned before, sometimes weird things happen.

463
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: It'd be great for Colin and the Razorbacks to see

464
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: him hit a couple threes to start the game and

465
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 2: loosen them up. Moody's got to get going because they

466
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 2: were one of nine from three point range, so they're

467
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 2: gonna need to hit some threes in this game, which

468
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: is not their strength. But they can turn Baylor over.

469
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: I think they can run them out, and I think

470
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 2: they can rebound with them. I just don't want to

471
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 2: see him get buried by too much because I don't

472
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 2: know if you can come back against a caliber team

473
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 2: like Baylor like he can't against Old Roberts and the

474
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 2: other ones.

475
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,719
Speaker 5: If you were to say, as an Arkansas fan and

476
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 5: better Arkansas wins this game, what's the one key or

477
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 5: the one player that you think needs to have a

478
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 5: big night or something you're going to be watching for.

479
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 5: Is it three point shooting. Is it not getting too

480
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 5: far behind? Is it maybe beil or not being all

481
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 5: the way back? What is something that you're keying in

482
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 5: on earl here? Yeah?

483
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:19,719
Speaker 4: I need I need jd Note and Jalen Tate and

484
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 4: Moses Moody to play defense as wild and as crazy

485
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 4: as Devo Davis. I need the three of them on

486
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 4: the other three guards to step up. And really, Arkansas

487
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 4: cannot struggle from jump shots outside jump shots outside the

488
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 4: middle like they did against Texastec. Baylor will eat them alive,

489
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 4: So really they can. I think both of you guys

490
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 4: are extremely correct. If Arkansas, I'm a little nervous about

491
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 4: the razorback TV Timeout did because Baylor's good enough to

492
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 4: bury him. And we talk about there's been a lot

493
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 4: of livelines. There's been a lot of duds in the

494
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 4: Sweet sixteen the last couple of days. A lot of

495
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 4: these games get into the ten to twenty point mode

496
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 4: and teams can't come back, and it's just a you're

497
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 4: just dead in live betting, completely dead, and there's just

498
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 4: this hump betwe I mean eight and eleven points that

499
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 4: none of these teams can seem to cross. And so

500
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 4: I think if you're focusing on live betting. You're looking for,

501
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 4: is Arkansas taking jumpers clear jumpers way with you know

502
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 4: non you know, high shot quality shots. Are they getting

503
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 4: to the rim or do they have clean looks? If

504
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 4: that's not happening, Arkansas could get buried here. Now, I'm

505
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 4: still going to fire away on Arkansas no matter when

506
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 4: they get that double digit trail. But I mean, really,

507
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 4: they've they've got to play extremely everybody's got to play

508
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 4: Devo Davis's defensive efficiency, and everybody has got to attack

509
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 4: the rim. And we'll see if that happens fair enough.

510
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, you don't want to get too far behind against better,

511
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 5: that's for sure.

512
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 3: So I think that's a great point that both of

513
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: you have brought up.

514
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 2: He's Maxkannadam say, he's pretty good.

515
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 8: You know, I followed it very closely by the SEC

516
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 8: package online DTV, so I watched every razorback game that

517
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 8: I can get all of that. There's a lot of

518
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 8: publishy the defense, and I'm following it all very closely.

519
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be good this year.

520
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to Tuesday. Two games on

521
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 5: Tuesday et laitt eight Monday and Tuesday, and it's still

522
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 5: very odd to me. USC We're gonna start off with

523
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 5: USC Knzaga.

524
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 3: I'm actually really looking forward to this.

525
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 5: Konzaga is a nine point favorite total one point fifty

526
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 5: five and a half. USC has just been on fire

527
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 5: from three. When this team makes outside shots, they are

528
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 5: extremely dangerous National title worthy. Can they be Gonzaga? I

529
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 5: don't know, but if they if they continue making shots,

530
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 5: they're gonna have a chance. And I really wanted to

531
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 5: see USC here because look, Oregon is excellent in many ways,

532
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 5: but a lot of what makes them great is Almans.

533
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 5: In the tournament is Almonds. Changing defens is zone is prep?

534
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 5: Do you really want to zone in press can Zaga?

535
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 5: And I don't know who they would have who they

536
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 5: have to checked to me, So at least USC here,

537
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 5: with their interior defense.

538
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: Doesn't have to help well, I mean the Gonzaga.

539
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 5: Offense you saw it against, creating absolute juggernaut, like, hey,

540
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 5: can't stop Timmy, try to help they kick out, they

541
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 5: make all their open threes. They're great in transition, so

542
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 5: at least USC can try and slow this game up.

543
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 5: Their in tier defense is arguably the best in the country.

544
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 5: They don't need to help. They have you know, pro

545
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 5: NBA size inside with the Mobi brothers, so they can

546
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 5: battle with Timmy as well as any team in the.

547
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: Country without having to help. And then that helps with

548
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: your perimeter offense.

549
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 5: You're never gonna shut down this Kenzag offense, but I

550
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 5: think you will see and the least has a chance

551
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 5: to get some stops here.

552
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 3: They're with their length.

553
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 5: Just make it more difficult on Gonzaga than we're used

554
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 5: to seeing. Can USC score efficiently enough? That's the question.

555
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 5: They're gonna have to continue to shots have a shot

556
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 5: to potentially pull off this upset at Knzaga.

557
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,400
Speaker 3: If you're still saying Gonzaga doesn't planning when they're not good,

558
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: you gotta stop.

559
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 5: I mean, and first of all, just go back to

560
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 5: their non conference schedule when they were just blowing everybody

561
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 5: out tournament teams on neutral courts.

562
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: The offense is a juggernaut.

563
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 5: I do think that the defense is a little vulnerable,

564
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 5: but the problem is you have to keep scoring with them.

565
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 5: So I think it's a fascinating x's and o's matchup

566
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 5: and I'm gonna give USC a long hard look here.

567
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 5: I stot was hoping it could get to ten I

568
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 5: don't think we're gonna get there.

569
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 3: Randall Trudges have any shot here.

570
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 2: I love the stylistic difference. I think that's fantastic. I

571
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 2: have been wrong about USC. They continue to win, they

572
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: continue to cover. Enfield is great against the spread. They've

573
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 2: done an outstanding job. I have a hard time going

574
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 2: against Gonzaga. That game against Creyton was super impressive. Crayton

575
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 2: was hot. Zach Garassi comes out hits his player prop

576
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 2: on over two and a half threes right away. If

577
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 2: you're gonna hold Kisper down to twelve and then Yayi

578
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 2: comes out and hits three threes, nem Heartz goes for seventeen,

579
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: How are you gonna beat him? The Mobli brothers and

580
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: decide they will limit Timmy absolutely and Timmy twenty two

581
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 2: points only it's six rebounds there because Creighton tried to

582
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 2: pull them away from the rim with Bishop, which I

583
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 2: thought was.

584
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 3: A smart move.

585
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: But their offense is just at a different level, and

586
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 2: I do expect the perimeter defensive Gonzagga. They're not gonna

587
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: let Taejiedi go nuts again. Edie was getting a lot

588
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 2: of shots because of the press. Like you said, with Oregon.

589
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 2: So they're breaking it and Heed he's pulling up from three,

590
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: and of course Isaiah White, we talked about him. I

591
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: don't think White go's nuts. Again, I think they limit Edie.

592
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 2: I just don't see how you're stopping Gonzaga at this

593
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 2: point unless you have some perimeter players who can attack

594
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 2: the basket and score. The Mobley brothers are not dominant

595
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 2: scores inside. They're tremendous players. Evans great. You know again,

596
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 2: you can argue number one pick absolutely, and Enfield's been

597
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 2: a cover machine. But I just think Gonzaga's perimeter d

598
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: their depth, they get up and down the floor, they

599
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 2: just look like they're too much right now. I think

600
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: it's a great game, and I'm glad because we're gonna see,

601
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 2: like you said, a stylistic difference. We're gonna see something

602
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: here that Gonzaga has not faced. But in the end,

603
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: I think they will have that spurt, They will have

604
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 2: that eight point run there in the second half that

605
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 2: will open this game up. That's the key. Usc great

606
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 2: interior defense, not great against threes. Gonzaga likes to get

607
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 2: the points inside, but they've been shooting very very well.

608
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 2: Kissperg Nemhar hit a couple from outside. So I just

609
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 2: think Gonzaga is too much. It's lining up to be

610
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 2: Gonzaga's year for me. Great stylistic matchup, but I like

611
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: the Zags here. I'll lay the points.

612
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: Kyle, Yeah, I.

613
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 4: Mean, I think you can add me on the Gonzaga.

614
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 4: But I'm gonna wait for this USC money to you know,

615
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 4: pound it down into the eights. You know, I this

616
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 4: is a game where I watched last night Oregon USC

617
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 4: and I thought to myself, is anything that I'm seeing

618
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 4: out of USC's defense applicable to what's going to happen

619
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 4: with Gonzaga. They're going to run a two three zone

620
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 4: against Gonzaga because Gonzaga will just tear them up from

621
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 4: you know, from shooting the one The one thing that

622
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 4: I keep going back to with this is that Gonzaga

623
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 4: likes to get the ball up the court ultra quick,

624
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 4: ultra fast, and so we mostly say, listen, anybody that's

625
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 4: got rim attackers can give them issues. But at the

626
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 4: same time, if you can't keep up with how fast

627
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 4: they are up the court, if you can't disrupt their

628
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 4: passing lanes, and you can't disrupt how quick they want

629
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: to score, they're going to eat you alive. And when

630
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 4: I look at this, USC is three hundred and fourteenth

631
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: in defensive steals. That's horrible. And that means that Gonzaga

632
00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 4: is going to be able to get up the floor

633
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 4: and they're very very comfortable three seconds and score as

634
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 4: quick as possible, and that's not going to allow you

635
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 4: to get the two three zone set. So I just

636
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 4: think USC could be in some trouble here because you know,

637
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 4: you you're not going to have time to get everybody

638
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: that you have back down the court and get set

639
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 4: up in the zone. You're gonna have to go to

640
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 4: something different. So anything that I saw in the organ game,

641
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 4: I said, this is not even applicable to the Gonzaga handicap.

642
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: So I like Gonzaga, you know, to cover the spread,

643
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 4: but I'm gonna wait for it to come down because

644
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 4: I think there's going to be just a slew of

645
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 4: USC money and gonna push it down just a little

646
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 4: bit further.

647
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, the one thing that that USC is

648
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 5: going to do is they're they're trendsit like.

649
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 3: Look, they have the interior defense to battle with Timmy.

650
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 5: That's one key against Gonzaga, right, and then their offense

651
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 5: is you have sugs and all the kids birth of

652
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 5: shooters out of the perimeter, but they also get out

653
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 5: and transition extremely wid You're not never going to stop.

654
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 3: Gonzaga at department, but USC, if you go.

655
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 5: Per hoop math, Gonzaga takes thirty four point nine percent

656
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 5: of their shots in transition.

657
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 3: That's number on one in the nation.

658
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 5: Their effective field goal percentage on the tradition opportunity sixty

659
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 5: five point nine percent.

660
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 3: Guess what, that's number one of the nations as well,

661
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: at least when it comes to USC.

662
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 5: Their top fifteen in the nation in percentage of shots

663
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 5: allowed in transition, they're under twenty percent. So can they

664
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 5: slow this up enough? Can they get back and transition enough?

665
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 5: Can they get on the glass and not? But they're

666
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 5: gonna have to hit shots like you're gonna have to

667
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 5: hit threes against Gonzaga, and you're gonna have to hope

668
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 5: in order to pull up the upset that they're gonna

669
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 5: have a little bit of an offshooting night. If this

670
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 5: gets to ten, I will look very hard at USC.

671
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 5: It's I still need to dig a little bit more

672
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 5: into this game. But if USC continues how they've been shooting.

673
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 5: They're gonna have a shot here.

674
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 3: I just don't know. Can we trust them? And then hey,

675
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 3: look free throws.

676
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 5: Don't forget about USC at the line that could creep

677
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 5: up at any moment. They could have just a disastrous

678
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 5: night from the line. You have to be basically flawless

679
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 5: to beat this Gonzaga team. We'll say if usc ken

680
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 5: be tomorrow and Andy Anfield ten and zero against the

681
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 5: spread now in the NCAA tournament.

682
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 7: The Action Network podcast talks a lot about finding an edge,

683
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 7: putting the work in finding opportunities and betting on them.

684
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685
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686
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687
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689
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700
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704
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,040
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705
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the final Elite eight

706
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 5: game Tomorrow night nine fifty seven Eastern on TBS. Michigan

707
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 5: seven and a half point favorite over UCLA. Uber impressed

708
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 5: I win by Michigan. I was on Florida State, had

709
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 5: Florida State going to the final four, I mean, I

710
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 5: couldn't have been more incorrect on that call. Great, I

711
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 5: mean Michigan not only great execution. Yeah, you could point

712
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 5: the shooting luck didn't matter more prepared team just schematically

713
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 5: took everything that Florida State wanted to do away.

714
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 3: They were well prepared.

715
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 5: For everything Florida State wanted to throw at them, and

716
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 5: Michigan well deserved easy victor if you bet them, just

717
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 5: a party for two and a half hours. Ucla, obviously

718
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 5: we know, so little bit fortunate against Alabama.

719
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 3: Probably not gonna have that kind of shooting luck.

720
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 5: I think Alabama was under twenty five percent from three

721
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 5: under fifty percent from the line. I think that's only

722
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 5: happened three times if I had none fourteen, fifteen or

723
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 5: sixteen seed in the last twenty years. So yeah, they

724
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 5: benefited from that. But look, Ucla is here, They're in

725
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 5: the Elite eight. It can't question that, right. I'll start

726
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 5: with you when you see Ucla Michigan.

727
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: I like the two underdogs tonight and the two favorites tomorrow.

728
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 2: Juwan Howard did a superior coaching job. You know in

729
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: the NBA, where you guys you see all the switches

730
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 2: all the time, and they're always trying to get the

731
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 2: mismatches right. That's exactly what he did here against Florida State.

732
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 2: They kept running screens, they kept waiting for mismatches. Finally,

733
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: Dickinson is inside with someone undersize guarding him, they have

734
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 2: to double they have an open shot. I agree with you,

735
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 2: Stuck is totally wrong. I did not think they were

736
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: gonna be able to do this without Livers. They did

737
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 2: survive against LSU the falcol and Watford was huge in

738
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: that game. But now they're just playing at that level again,

739
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: even the Livers and the guy who's doing it, Wagner

740
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 2: has been tremendous ten defensive rebounds at the double double yesterday.

741
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 2: He's making up for it. They may get a good

742
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 2: game from Brooks. Eli Brooks basically did nothing and they

743
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 2: still end up winning because Brandon Johns was superior, just

744
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: superior inside out, mid range game. That's what Leonard Hamilton

745
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 2: didn't expect. Florida State looked lost, and just like certain teams,

746
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: you get them in a situation that they're not comfortable

747
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 2: and they fold like a house of cards. You get

748
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,439
Speaker 2: a loyal to Chicago down ten in the second half,

749
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 2: late in the second half, they're gonna fold because their

750
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 2: entire defense is predicated, like a Virginia or Wisconsin, on

751
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 2: being in the right spot, controlling temple. Okay we're up three, Okay,

752
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 2: we're down two. When they're down ten, they start to

753
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 2: panic and they start extending themselves where they're not comfortable

754
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 2: and they're not fundamentally sound. Virginia, as great as that

755
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 2: run was, everybody forgets they won the title because of

756
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 2: Ada Kite last second shot to force overtime against Purdue

757
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 2: and because they ended up Kyle Guy got fouled on

758
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,479
Speaker 2: a three and made all three free throws against Texas Tech.

759
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 2: So those slowdown teams struggle there. Now, in this case,

760
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 2: UCLA benefited from the terrible free throw shooting by Alabama

761
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: and the turnovers and the fouls on Herb Jones two

762
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 2: fouls in the first forty seconds, whatever it was. Now

763
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: they're gonna play a Michigan team that's more disciplined. They're

764
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 2: gonna play a Michigan team that has a big inside

765
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 2: and Hunter Dickinson back to the basket, big that they're

766
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 2: gonna have to account for. And they're gonna have crisp

767
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 2: offense on the outside that can hit threes, work the

768
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,919
Speaker 2: ball around. I don't see Michigan having a fundamentally poor

769
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: game like Alabama. Ucla mic croded superior, superior job all around.

770
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 2: I just think Michigan rolls here. I think they eventually

771
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 2: put them away. UCLA, great job. I just don't think

772
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 2: you're UCLA needed a poor game from Alabama to win,

773
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: and they got it. I don't think they get it

774
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 2: here from Michigan. I think he, like Brooks Strucks to

775
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: get hot and cover from a poor game, and I

776
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 2: think the Wolverines advance.

777
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 4: If I did not have the under in Ucla Alabama,

778
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 4: which hurt pretty bad with the overtime, I would have

779
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 4: immediately fired on the under here on this game with

780
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 4: UCLA and Michigan, the one thing that sticks out with

781
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 4: me in the numbers is that these teams are absolutely

782
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 4: god awful and turnover rate from stealing the ball on

783
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 4: their defenses, which means UCLA at michiganian to have long,

784
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 4: extended drives for as long as they want. In their possessions. UCLA,

785
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 4: we know, is outside the top three hundred offensively in pace.

786
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,720
Speaker 4: They prefer walking up the court, make it a bit slower,

787
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 4: eat up all the clock. Michigan, on the other hand,

788
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 4: I think they're going to feed their bigs. I don't

789
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 4: think Cody Riley is enough for UCLA to stop Dickinson

790
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 4: and some of the other bigs that Michigan has down

791
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 4: in the paint. I wouldn't be surprised to see them

792
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,280
Speaker 4: work the interior the entire game Michigan is their offensive

793
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: pace is getting slower and slower by the game too.

794
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 4: The games, the tournament games against LSU in Texas Southern,

795
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 4: throw those out because those were soy pace wise, so

796
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 4: high above the rest of the season, and they are

797
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 4: trending in a five game trend, season long trend. It

798
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,040
Speaker 4: doesn't matter. They are trending slower and slower. So I

799
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 4: like the under in this game. I probably should ahead

800
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 4: and just get over my little overtime, you know, getting

801
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 4: busts with the Alabama UCLA under that I had and

802
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 4: firing under here on one thirty six and a half

803
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 4: before it goes down even farther.

804
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, the UCLA perimeter defense, it is vulnerable, and we

805
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 5: didn't see it against Alabama that miss shots. It's one game,

806
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 5: stam full size. That's what happens in one game. But

807
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 5: I will say that you did at least play two

808
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 5: of really post heavy offenses to start off this tournament.

809
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 5: Athur Michigan State once they got into the bracket, and

810
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 5: they did a real Ryland company did a really good

811
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 5: job against Uyu against Ablie Chritian who run a lot

812
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 5: of their offense to the post Dickinson. Different animal here,

813
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 5: but at least we've seen it from USAI that post

814
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 5: defense was fairly strong against post heavy teams. I think

815
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 5: that'll help a little bit here. I do think that

816
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 5: they're ultimately outclassed, and yeah, I think they're I think

817
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 5: UCLA's magic comes to an end. But I think the

818
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:57,479
Speaker 5: line is about right. Maybe I'll look to get in live,

819
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 5: but let's let's talk. By the way, we got a

820
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 5: bunch of people reach out about futures, which I'm going

821
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 5: to get back to as many as I can. What's

822
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 5: kind of finished up here, and look, just in general

823
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 5: hedging a future, we talked about it all year. It's okay,

824
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 5: what is your plan when you actually bought the future?

825
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 3: Right? So if you.

826
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 5: Originally had like a Michigan future, right, you bet that

827
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 5: because you thought that they could win the national title

828
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,240
Speaker 5: at And it's going to come down your own personal

829
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 5: risk aversion, It's going to come down to your own

830
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 5: personal financial situation. If this money could really help you

831
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 5: help your bankroll or help you personally, and you want

832
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 5: needed to lock something in, that's something that you have

833
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 5: to figure out on your own. But in general, I

834
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 5: wouldn't even think about hedging a future unless.

835
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 3: And you always have to plan this out.

836
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 5: So you have to say, okay, if I hedge this

837
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:52,439
Speaker 5: future now and then my team wins, all right, now

838
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 5: I have to cover what I just hedged this round,

839
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 5: So I'd never look at any.

840
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,359
Speaker 3: Hedging before the Final four.

841
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 5: For example, Saint Louis one hundred and twenty five to

842
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 5: one wouldn't have looked until the Final four. Now you

843
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 5: also have to say, okay. You could also say I

844
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 5: hate this matchup, I want to get out now, but

845
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 5: make sure you're planning ahead and doing the math. Sometimes,

846
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,479
Speaker 5: even in the Elite eight, you could if you plan

847
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 5: out that the hedge and your team keeps winning, the

848
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 5: hedge might not make mathematical sense even starting in the

849
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 5: Elite eight. Now, if you have like a fifteen hundred

850
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 5: to one ticket on Oregon State or that's different. But

851
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 5: I would personally let almost every future right now go.

852
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 5: But I'll ask you guys your thoughts on that and

853
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 5: what you think ends up happening the rest of the way. Well, obviously,

854
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 5: I have a Final four preview podcast later this week

855
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 5: It's been a crazy, crazy tournament packed twelve teams upsets.

856
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 5: But I think in the end we are getting for

857
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 5: what it's worth, and it was on pinion worth, but

858
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:51,959
Speaker 5: I think in the end we're getting the Bay Oregon

859
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 5: zag game everybody wants.

860
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 3: That's my prediction right now. Sorry, Colin, I know you

861
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 3: don't want to hear it. Rand, I'll throw it to

862
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 3: you first.

863
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 5: Any thoughts that you want to throw in there on hedging,

864
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 5: and then you're the ultimate prediction right now of.

865
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 3: Who gets to the file. You don't have to pick

866
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:05,479
Speaker 3: a winner. What do you got?

867
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 2: You guys talked about it on the show about the

868
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 2: hedge and for the guy who had the fifty dollars

869
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 2: bet or whatever it was, I think it was loyal

870
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,720
Speaker 2: in Chicago, and it comes down to where your personal

871
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 2: finances are and how much you invested. I mentioned to

872
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 2: you guys earlier about that ticket right someone had on

873
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 2: Michigan winning it all. It was like, you know, they

874
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,280
Speaker 2: had crazy odds put down, you know, eight hundred dollars

875
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 2: and could win one hundred and thirty and it was

876
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 2: selling it one hundred and thirty k and they were

877
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 2: selling it online. Prior to the tournament for like fifteen

878
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: thousand or it comes down to where your finances are.

879
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 2: So your reason you do these futures is to get

880
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 2: yourself in these situations. I still would try to hedge

881
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 2: against Michigan, I think without Livers, to see them make

882
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: a run all the way to the title, even to

883
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 2: the finals. Going against Gazaga would be really, really tough.

884
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 2: But it comes down to personal preference and the odds

885
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 2: that you have. But you know, it depends if you

886
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 2: can let it ride. It's always more fun to let

887
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: it ride. As far as the tournament, I Colin, I'm

888
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: rooting for you. I think it would be fun as heck.

889
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 2: But I think Baylor got through the dip that they

890
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 2: needed to get through. I don't see anyone stopping in Zaga.

891
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 2: It's just starting to align to me as a Gonzaga

892
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 2: year still, you know, smarting from that Kennedy Meeks not

893
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 2: out of bounds call against North Carolina in the finals

894
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: with two minutes left when he was on the baseline,

895
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 2: it's just lining up to be a Gonzaga year. I

896
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 2: think we're getting the Gonzaga Baylor game that everybody wanted

897
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:25,839
Speaker 2: because I think Baylor is starting to roll, and I

898
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 2: just don't think Baylor is going to have the matchup

899
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 2: here against Gonzaga. I think it's going to be a

900
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 2: Bulldogs year. But I think that's what we're getting in

901
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 2: the finals.

902
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 5: Thoughts and your prediction, Yeah, I mean, I think it's

903
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 5: I think it's wise to say it depends on the

904
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 5: person that has the bet.

905
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 4: And I have three futures tickets that are still alive,

906
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 4: and I'm treating them all three differently, and so I

907
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 4: think it's I think it's interesting to cover that. Like

908
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 4: I have an Arkansas one hundred to one, not for

909
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 4: a lot of money, probably not the best number that

910
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 4: was ever out there, but that's an emotional play. That

911
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 4: is a play that I made that said, you know,

912
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 4: I'm gonna ride with this because if they pull it off,

913
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 4: I'm not going to be left behind. But it's not

914
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 4: something that I talk about because it doesn't come into

915
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 4: the you know, it's not something that I made based

916
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 4: upon stats or actual belief in the advanced numbers that

917
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 4: it could happen. It was an emotional play. So I've

918
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 4: already written that the amount of money I've spent on that,

919
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 4: I've already written that off, right, So I don't treat

920
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 4: that as an investment. Houston is a different story. Houston

921
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 4: is a team I got eighty to one at the

922
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 4: Westgate before the season started two hundred and fifty dollars

923
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 4: wins twenty thousand, So because they are such huge favorites tonight,

924
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 4: I will have that unit, that initial two hundred and

925
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 4: fifty dollars that I spent on Oregon State at whatever

926
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 4: their money line odds are, and that is just to

927
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 4: simply get my unit back. And I have not touched

928
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 4: that Houston ticket up till this point, and I'm happy

929
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 4: to have an opponent that's going to supply me a,

930
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 4: you know, a very nice money line to get out

931
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 4: of it. In case Houston loses tonight, and then if

932
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 4: they do win the game, then it's not actually an

933
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 4: eighty to one, it loses its value. But at the

934
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 4: same time, I'm protecting that one because I can now

935
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 4: I do have a Ucla eighty to one future from

936
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 4: the Westgate. Also definitely not the best number that was

937
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 4: ever out there on UCLA. This of course, when I

938
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 4: bought the ticket back in October, Ucla was a much

939
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 4: more healthier team, and I thought the seed would be

940
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 4: much higher, and so you know, things have not gone

941
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 4: the Bruins way that they even thought would happen this season.

942
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 4: But that's a ticket that I'm not touching. I just

943
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 4: you can't hedge it when you're a plus seven and

944
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 4: a half dog. So it's something I will look for live.

945
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,280
Speaker 4: I may try to get that unit back and live betting,

946
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 4: but because you know, I'm not going to lay a

947
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 4: huge moneyline number with Michigan, I'm willing to just let

948
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 4: that one go with UCLA. But at the same time,

949
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 4: I'm also going to be watching live, So three different approaches.

950
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 4: One is emotional and the other two are financial, but

951
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 4: they're being played differently because of how they are right

952
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 4: now in the market and their head to head match. Overall,

953
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 4: for me, I don't think anybody's stopping in Zaga. Michigan's

954
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 4: not stobbing in Zaga. US He's not stopping in Zaga.

955
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 4: So it really is who we're going to write in

956
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 4: And and you know, I at this point I had

957
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 4: I don't believe I had Purdue or Arkansas, so I

958
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 4: will I will roll with Houston. Houston going into that

959
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 4: championship game and getting crushed by Gonzaga.

960
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a really good point.

961
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 5: Like so when you have to do with UCLA future

962
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 5: depending on what number you have, if you were to

963
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 5: try to hedge it.

964
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:13,359
Speaker 3: This is why it's good.

965
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 5: So you can we have power ratings, but you can

966
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 5: you can kind of get an idea of what the

967
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,720
Speaker 5: lines would be even if you don't have power ratings.

968
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 5: But say you were going to lay a big money

969
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,320
Speaker 5: line price on Michigan, Well, project out what would happen

970
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 5: if you say wins and then they play Gonzaga, and

971
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 5: then if they win that bailer you're gonna in order

972
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 5: to cover what you're hedging each round.

973
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 3: It gets expensive quick.

974
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 5: So you have to do that math because you're gonna

975
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 5: have to cover what you bet the game before, and

976
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,760
Speaker 5: a lot of times it makes no sense and people

977
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 5: could get the people generally speaking, you know, recreational betters

978
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 5: ask about hedging way too soon. You have to do

979
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 5: the math and project out the worst case scenario and see, okay,

980
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 5: am I gonna be able to cover? And then be

981
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 5: a little conservative on what you're projecting, because I just

982
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 5: want to make sure that you're not getting yourself into

983
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 5: trouble by hedging too soon. So I would agree with

984
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 5: like UCLA, a projected path of Michigan, Gonzaga and Baylor. Again,

985
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 5: it depends on your personal situation what number you have,

986
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 5: but you hope that you get through this game and

987
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 5: then you're root for upsets. You root for Arkansas, you

988
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 5: root for Gonzaga to go down. But I agree, I

989
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 5: think it's Gonzaga Baylor. I'm not going to name my

990
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 5: champion just yet. I will say that for later this week.

991
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 5: That'll do it for us. The people demanded an elite

992
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 5: a Monday morning podcast, so we had to deliver it.

993
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 5: Hope you enjoy the games. Only seven games left this season.

994
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 5: I'm glad we had a tournament after last year. So

995
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 5: cherish these games because before you know it will be

996
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 5: sweating bullpens trying to hold on to leeds for us

997
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 5: on a Wednesday afternoon. So enjoy the games, everybody. We'll

998
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 5: be back later this week with a Final four preview.

999
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 5: We've appreciated your support all you. We'll also have a

1000
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 5: Opening Day preview Colin myself and Sean Zarillo. We'll be

1001
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 5: back later this week. That'll be out. We'll record Wednesday,

1002
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 5: so you have it Thursday morning for Opening Day and

1003
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 5: then US three will be back Thursday night. We will

1004
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 5: record our final four preview that'll get up late late

1005
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 5: Thursday night.

1006
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 3: So you have it all day Friday. You know the deal.

1007
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 5: Subscribe, unsubscribed, Subscribe, Tell a friend, telling enemy.

1008
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 3: Appreciate your support. Appreciate you guys listening.

1009
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 5: Make sure you follow all of our plays on the

1010
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 5: Action Network app. Find all of our content there as well,

1011
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 5: in addition to actionnetwork dot.

1012
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 3: Com thanks to Colin and Randall.

1013
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 5: As always, we will catch you later this week.

1014
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 3: Cheers.

1015
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 2: He's out Monday Tuesday, lea day, get it popping.

1016
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 3: We're finished talking