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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action as

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Speaker 1: all right. Here we go from the test throwing out

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Speaker 1: a spect we're sitting up to cash stop. That's all

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Speaker 1: we see. Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to Swain. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combining and.

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Speaker 1: You want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is good? Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by Bett MGM. I'm your host Chris Raybond of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, and today we've got our NFL player

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Speaker 1: projections for the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs for

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty three now twenty twenty four season. On

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Speaker 1: today's show, we're gonna run through our top five at

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Speaker 1: each skilled position, discuss players we're especially high and loan

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Speaker 1: on and throughout a player prop for each position, joining

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Speaker 1: me as always the number one top dog fantasy ranker

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Speaker 1: in the game. Yeah it's maker, Sean Turner. Sean, congrats again.

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Speaker 1: How you feeling, man?

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Speaker 2: That's what's up? Yeah? Thanks and uh yeah, we had

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Speaker 2: a amazing wild card weekend. It was fun to hang

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Speaker 2: out with you all weekend when a ton of bets.

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Speaker 2: I feel like everybody at Action Network just had a

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Speaker 2: massive weekend. It was fun, you know, getting to meet

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Speaker 2: some of our listeners, some of our readers. So overall,

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Speaker 2: just an epic, epic weekend.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, shout out to everyone who came out to Hoboken

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Speaker 1: on Saturday and or Sunday. Uh, you guys were you

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Speaker 1: guys and gals are really amazing. It really enjoyed meeting everybody.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, just the stories some of y'all

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Speaker 1: told me. I mean, I think it was Mike was like,

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Speaker 1: you know, he helped we helped him pay for his wedding.

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Speaker 1: You know, just just some really gratifying stories. So really

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Speaker 1: really enjoyed meeting everybody. Shout out to everybody who came out.

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Speaker 1: And we'll keep you guys posted on when we're gonna

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Speaker 1: do our next event. And yeah, man, uh Action you

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Speaker 1: know all of us. I mean, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: it was synergy or what, but yeah, it seemed like everybody.

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Speaker 1: Everybody had just a ridiculous week in terms of positive

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Speaker 1: in a positive way. So let's keep it going though

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Speaker 1: divisional round. We only got seven games left in the

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Speaker 1: NFL season, so we can dig as deep as we

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Speaker 1: want to. For this one, we'll go through the pod

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Speaker 1: the same way though, same format. We'll start a quarterback

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Speaker 1: and go from there. So I know they're only eight

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Speaker 1: on the slate, but still I think it's interesting, maybe

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Speaker 1: more interesting. Let's here your top five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is almost our full QB rings at

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Speaker 2: this point. Yeah, but I got Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen,

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Speaker 2: Brock Purdy number three, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff.

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Speaker 1: I got Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Purty, Mahomes, Goff. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: just the only difference is flip flop with Alan Jackson.

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Speaker 1: The rushing upside for Alan I really love. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's really much I got. I think

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Speaker 1: I got a guy half a point separating next two guys.

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Speaker 1: So right, don't mind your Lamar number one, especially, you know,

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Speaker 1: going against that path funnel Texan defense. But who are

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Speaker 1: you high on?

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Speaker 2: I'm high on the guy that just missed probably both

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Speaker 2: our top five. But it's Jordan Love. He's my QB

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Speaker 2: six and it would not shock me if he ends

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Speaker 2: up inside the top five again this week. Last week,

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Speaker 2: he just had another impressive performance, dropped two hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy two yards three touchdowns against the Cowboys sent them packing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it was just a truly impressive performance. He

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Speaker 2: could have had, you know, way more passing yards, maybe

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Speaker 2: more touchdowns if Dallas had been able to keep it close.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is a blowout right off the bat.

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Speaker 2: There was also that pick six, so you know he

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Speaker 2: could have had an even bigger performance. So you know,

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Speaker 2: I was high on Jordan Love as soon as I

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Speaker 2: saw him in the preseason, but just the way he's

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Speaker 2: been playing lately, I never saw this coming. He's truly

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Speaker 2: looking like one of the better young quarterbacks in the game.

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Speaker 2: So you know, this is a matchup where it's a

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Speaker 2: difficult one, you know against the Niners, but could mean

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Speaker 2: that the Packers are just going to lean on Love

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Speaker 2: even more. And the crazy part is is, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Packers heading in the season had one of the

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Speaker 2: least experienced pass catching groups in the league. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Christian Watson had the most experienced as a second year player,

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Speaker 2: but they've also been banged up. But right now his

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Speaker 2: pass catchers are essentially a one hundred percent health right now,

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Speaker 2: so could be even better going forward. So Love Jordan

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Speaker 2: Love this week at San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think it'll be a probably be

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Speaker 1: a different game script. You know, San Francisco has had

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Speaker 1: the low injury of you know, resting starters in week

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Speaker 1: eighteen getting to buy, so I'm sure they'll be more

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Speaker 1: prepared than Dallas it was. So I think, you know

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Speaker 1: you mentioned it only twenty one past attempts two hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy two yards Jordan Love since November eight yards

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Speaker 1: in attempt that's elite. So, but this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a tougher matchup. I do think the way he gets

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Speaker 1: there this week is probably not quite as efficient as

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Speaker 1: he's been over these past two months. But you know,

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Speaker 1: this San Francisco offense, I think they can roll and

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Speaker 1: kind of put the pressure on green Bay to score.

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Speaker 1: Probably will get green Bay in a trailing game script.

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Speaker 1: That didn't happen against Dallas. It was it twenty seven

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Speaker 1: nothing before we blinked, So you could get you know,

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Speaker 1: like a like what's the ceiling like the same things

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Speaker 1: as as Dak Right, you know, something like four hundred

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Speaker 1: yards is probably the ceiling if green Bay gets behind

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Speaker 1: in this one. So you know, it could be could

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Speaker 1: be a little uglier efficiency wise, but yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: the volume will be there, and he's got guys, guys

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Speaker 1: are healthy for him, so uh and he's playing really

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Speaker 1: really well. So yeah, I like that. I am high

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Speaker 1: on Perty, you know, really think he's a guy who

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Speaker 1: continues to get overlooked. You know, Allen and Jackson are

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Speaker 1: obviously the sexy names, and they give you that rushing upside.

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Speaker 1: But we know Patrick Mahomes hasn't been quite right going

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Speaker 1: on the road to Buffalo, first ever playoff Graham on

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Speaker 1: the road. So I like Brot Purty. You know, he's

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Speaker 1: my QB three, kind of in a tier of his

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Speaker 1: own almost, and I think he has a massive, massive upside.

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Speaker 1: He's one of the you know, rarely am I over

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Speaker 1: on you know, relative to the books on passing yardage,

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Speaker 1: And that doesn't mean you bet the prop you know,

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Speaker 1: passing yard you know, a seven yard edge or whatever,

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Speaker 1: it's not really a big edge because you know, think

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Speaker 1: about seven into like two hundred and seventy it's.

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Speaker 2: Not a lot.

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Speaker 1: But I have party around two hundred and seventy five

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Speaker 1: yards about about ten seven to ten yards higher than

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Speaker 1: the books at most spots as we record on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: and then this green Bay defense. I know they played well,

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Speaker 1: and you know Dak made some mistakes, but Green Bay

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Speaker 1: twenty sixth and past defense Dvoa and again Kyle Shanahan

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Speaker 1: and this offense, they've had rest, They've had the luxury

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Speaker 1: of being able to prepare, and even even though they

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Speaker 1: didn't know who their opponent was going to be, Green

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Speaker 1: Bay got up so quick against Dallas that I think

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Speaker 1: Shanahan said they started preparing for Green Bay like in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the second quarter. So you know, they've

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Speaker 1: they've had the luxury of kind of figuring out how

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Speaker 1: they want to attack this defense. You know, Joe Barry

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Speaker 1: still not a very well liked guy in Green Bay

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Speaker 1: for good reasons. So I think this San Francisco offense

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Speaker 1: is going to cook through the air on the ground,

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Speaker 1: and I think Purty is going to be a big

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Speaker 1: part of that. Averaging almost nine yards in attempt and

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Speaker 1: now facing a bad defense. Got all those guys healthy,

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Speaker 1: you know, deebo I, Yuk, Jennings, Kittle, McLeod is even back.

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Speaker 1: We'll see if we get a half a yard over

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Speaker 1: hunder prop for him. But I just really love Purty

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Speaker 1: in this matchup, going up against a Green Bay defense

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Speaker 1: that I think, you know, maybe recency buyas people might.

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Speaker 1: You know, they had the couple of picks on Dak

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Speaker 1: to pick six. Maybe people will forget just how bad

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Speaker 1: this defense has been. I mean, before that Dallas game,

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Speaker 1: green Bay had been pretty much bottom three, you know,

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Speaker 1: over the second half of the season. So as good

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Speaker 1: as Jordan Love had been, that green Bay defense had

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Speaker 1: been given a lot back. That's why Green Bay had

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Speaker 1: a kind of claw its way into the playoffs. So

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Speaker 1: love me some this week, all right, hul On, Well,

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Speaker 1: I hate to say it, but CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud just because you know, he's my QB eight and

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Speaker 2: there's only eight quarterbacks on this late and this isn't

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Speaker 2: really a knock again him at all. This is how

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Speaker 2: the slate's shaping up. You know, we already have a

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Speaker 2: handful of laite quarterbacks since this is the divisional round

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Speaker 2: of the playoffs, and Stroud has arguably the toughest matchup

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Speaker 2: of the week against Ravens defense that's had plenty of

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Speaker 2: time to rest up having the week one bye. They

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Speaker 2: ranked first in DV against the pass. They've also allowed

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Speaker 2: the second fewest fantasy points per game to posing quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Despite facing the second most pass attempts per game since

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Speaker 2: they're usually up. I think the Ravens have only trailed

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Speaker 2: like sixty snaps all year. So I mean, teams, can

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Speaker 2: you know they're gonna get volume against them, They're just

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Speaker 2: not going to be efficient. So plus, you know, Stroud's

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Speaker 2: been less efficient on the road against man coverage and

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Speaker 2: against you know, top ten defenses, which isn't too surprising

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Speaker 2: everybody is, so all all of those factors are in

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Speaker 2: play here. Granted, Stroud is one of the better up

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Speaker 2: and coming quarterbacks in the game, so he might be

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Speaker 2: able to overcome all this. I wouldn't be shocked. I

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Speaker 2: think he's probably still worth some flyers in DFS. But

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Speaker 2: just having said that, you know, we definitely have to

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Speaker 2: lower his media this week, and unfortunately that puts him

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Speaker 2: QB eight. Surprising going to see him below Baker Mayfield,

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Speaker 2: but Baker played so well last week. You know, he

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Speaker 2: had a couple of drops where his pass catchers let

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Speaker 2: him down, so I had Baker slightly out of him.

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Speaker 2: But it's just it's weird to say that Stroud's my

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Speaker 2: lowest ranked quarterback, but that's just unfortunately how this slate

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Speaker 2: has shaped up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not even going to try to pick a

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Speaker 1: different guy because it's Stroud for me as well, like

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Speaker 1: QB eight, but you know, I think you said you

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Speaker 1: hit on it. He's still worth flyers in DFS because remember,

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is a juggernaut, they're a great team, and Houston's

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Speaker 1: also a pass funnel, and you know, Baltimore tends to

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Speaker 1: be run heavy, but they might come out of it

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Speaker 1: a more aggressive and this one, you know, Beckham and

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Speaker 1: Flowers and all those guys, Andrews even might be back,

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Speaker 1: so though they've had chance to rest guys, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it'll be a pretty zone heavy look from Houston. So

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Speaker 1: you could get a situation too, kind of like with Love.

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Speaker 1: It might not be as efficient as usual, but you know, Houston,

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Speaker 1: which Droud also, really hasn't been trailing much outside of

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Speaker 1: that lately, I mean outside of that Jet game where

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Speaker 1: you know it was just a lost cause anyway, so

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Speaker 1: we haven't really seen it like Stroud getting you know,

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Speaker 1: behind by multiple scores a lot lately. You know, early

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Speaker 1: in the year we did, but since he kind of

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Speaker 1: took off, you know, we haven't seen much of that either.

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Speaker 1: So you could get some volume, you could get a

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Speaker 1: lot of yardage here and then you're just hoping that

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Speaker 1: the talent takes over. So you know, there are eight

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks on the slate, somebody's gotta ranked TB eight, So

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Speaker 1: I totally agree. I have him QB eight as well.

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Speaker 1: But don't don't think he's a fade in defensor or

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Speaker 1: anything like that. But I will say, you know, he

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Speaker 1: you know, usually you're looking at Stroud throwing for you know,

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Speaker 1: upwards of two hundred and eighty yards, maybe you know,

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Speaker 1: getting close to three hundred. I have him, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the two thirties for this matchup, So that's just

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Speaker 1: a median. That doesn't mean he can't throw for four hundred.

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Speaker 1: But his median and in his floor obviously are the

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Speaker 1: lowest it's been I would, I believe all year, since

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Speaker 1: maybe the first couple of weeks in terms of my

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Speaker 1: projections at least. Okay, we both went winn one last

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Speaker 1: week on props, so our worst performances of the week

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Speaker 1: because everything else, everything else is pretty good. Shout out

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Speaker 1: to Romeo Doves. But I gotta I gotta throw out

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Speaker 1: a prop here for quarterbacks. Let's see. Okay, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go with the guy that I am, I seem to

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Speaker 1: be higher than the market on and higher than you on,

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Speaker 1: and I can't really find a way to lower him.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna throw out a line. Uh, and

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Speaker 1: it's actually the line I have projected, and I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna see, uh, you know which way he'll go. So

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff been playing well himself indoors against the Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay defense that has been has been a little shaky.

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Speaker 1: I have him at a median of two hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy seven and a half passing yards over under.

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Speaker 2: That's a good line. I noticed his his prop has

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Speaker 2: actually gone up above that. I was closer to the

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Speaker 2: low to seventies. Yep. So I will take the under here,

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Speaker 2: but that that is shaping up to be what where

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Speaker 2: the market has stabilized at least, But I have I

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Speaker 2: have him like right around like two seventy one to

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Speaker 2: seventy one and a half like that range.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, my average is like two eighty one. My median

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Speaker 1: is like to seventies, like like when I gave you

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Speaker 1: to seventy seven and a half. But yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week the line was a little bit lower.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I notice is starting to come up. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's just Detroit team is fast paced, runs

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Speaker 1: a lot of plays pretty efficient going against a defense

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Speaker 1: that hasn't you know, non prohibitive and an offense. You

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Speaker 1: know that Detroit defense isn't great, so uh and you

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Speaker 1: could see a lot and it's also a pass funnel defense,

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Speaker 1: so I think that kind of helps the Lions as well.

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Speaker 1: And the Bucks are one of those teams that you know,

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Speaker 1: they could be solid on offense, but they don't necessarily

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Speaker 1: possess the ball a ton because they're not they don't

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Speaker 1: have a great running game. So I think Detroit's plays

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Speaker 1: there are kind of maximized in my model, and so

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Speaker 1: a lot of things kind of working in the favor

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Speaker 1: of Golf here. So interesting to see that one.

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Speaker 2: And they'll have a better plan for the Bltz than

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Speaker 2: the Eagles did.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you would hope, right, Oh my goodness. I mean

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Speaker 1: GoF isn't actually he's actually not great against the Blitz,

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Speaker 1: but that that could actually help his yardage if they

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Speaker 1: don't do as well as we expect early because Golf

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Speaker 1: is a number one ranked graded quarterback in PFF with

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Speaker 1: no Blitz dropped to twenty second when Blitz, so this

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Speaker 1: could be an interesting one here. But yeah, I'm a

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Speaker 1: little bit high on on GoF so interesting. I'm high

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Speaker 1: on the Bucks, which is interest thing, but I'm also

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Speaker 1: high on golf, so maybe maybe i need to take

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Speaker 1: the over in the Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but those are pretty correlated. If you think the

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Speaker 2: Bucks are going to keep up, God's going to keep throwing.

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Speaker 2: So that that's why you're you know, lean towards this

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Speaker 2: over here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and Pete and you know, coaches respect that, uh

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Speaker 1: that that Tampa Bay front in terms of running the ball,

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Speaker 1: so maybe their pass raise a little higher too. But

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Speaker 1: all right, running back, who got in the top five.

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Speaker 2: It's been a few weeks, but welcome back to the

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Speaker 2: number one slot, Kirsha McCaffrey. Uh. Then it opens up

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Speaker 2: a bit. I have Isaiah Pacheco number two, then Rashad White,

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Speaker 2: Jamier Gibbs, and James Cooked around out my top five.

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Speaker 1: I got CMC, I got Aaron Jones number two actually, uh,

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Speaker 1: Rashad White, Pacheco, and then Gibbs. So that's interesting. So

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Speaker 1: you where you have Joones just curious six.

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Speaker 2: He's right there, okay.

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Speaker 1: H Yeah, he's tough to project that. It's because like

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Speaker 1: you know, he's been getting so many carries and Owen

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Speaker 1: hasn't really been active. But at this point, I don't

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Speaker 1: think Dylan's gonna get much. It's just how much how

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Speaker 1: many passing snaps does Jones play because it's kind of

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Speaker 1: skewed because he's been playing in all these positive game

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Speaker 1: script games, where as the early down, you know, usually

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Speaker 1: if he's gonna come out these days, he usually comes

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Speaker 1: out on third down, whereas you know, in the past

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Speaker 1: he was more of a passing down back, so it's

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Speaker 1: a little tough to project his passing passing that usage.

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Speaker 1: So I might that that ranking might change, but it's

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Speaker 1: kind of kind of a little shaky after after see see,

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Speaker 1: I must say, like there's nothing I love right exactly.

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Speaker 2: Back you could make a case to be the RB two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Jones, White, Pacheco, gives or Cook probably

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Speaker 1: you know, all those guys, depending on how things go.

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Speaker 1: Who are you high on?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I just said there's like six to maybe

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Speaker 2: eight running backs you could argue should be the RB two.

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Speaker 2: Mine currently is Isaiah Pacheco, so I guess I'm high

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Speaker 2: on him. And as predicted last week, you know, the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs lean on him. Heavily ran the ball twenty four

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Speaker 2: times for eighty nine yards in a touchdown. He only

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Speaker 2: got one pass for negative one yard, I believe, but

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Speaker 2: that had more to do with just the Chiefs being

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Speaker 2: up ballgame. You know, the Dolphins didn't really make it

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Speaker 2: put up a fight here, so they didn't really have

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Speaker 2: to throw much lean on dump dump offs the Pacheco

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Speaker 2: like I thought they would, so you could see him

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Speaker 2: go back to three to four catches in the passing

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Speaker 2: game here with Jared McKinnon you know, still out, and

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Speaker 2: the Bills defense, you know, they we saw it unfold.

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Speaker 2: They suffered a ton of injuries, specifically to the linebackers.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're already without Matt Mulano, who's on IR

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Speaker 2: but Terrell Dodson missed last game with the shoulder injury.

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Speaker 2: Treel Bernard had to leave on the cart with the

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Speaker 2: ankle injury, so they might be really fin at linebacker.

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Speaker 2: Even backup Baylon Spector had to leave the game with

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Speaker 2: a back injury, so we'll have to see who's even

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Speaker 2: able to suit up. But it could be an even

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Speaker 2: better matchup Pachecko, So if he gets in the second

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Speaker 2: level might be more likely to break a big run,

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Speaker 2: you know, if they have to use a ton of

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Speaker 2: backups at linebacker. So yeah, as of now, I have Pachecko.

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Speaker 2: He's barely my RB two, but as of now he

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Speaker 2: is my RB two tope in the week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll actually talk more about him with the

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Speaker 1: guy I'm low on, but I'm gonna stay in the

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Speaker 1: same game for who I'm highing on, and that's James

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Speaker 1: Cook of the Bills going up against Kansas City. You know,

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Speaker 1: twenty seventh in run defense DVA, are the Chiefs twenty

348
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Speaker 1: first in DVA on passes to running backs and Cook

349
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Speaker 1: since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey had offensive

350
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Speaker 1: coordinator averaging nineteen point nine touches, one hundred and two

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Speaker 1: scrimmage yards, and a half a touchdown per game over

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Speaker 1: his last eight games. He's been a little bit quieter lately,

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Speaker 1: but you know, I think that's mostly you know, just noise.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're not going to be able to put

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Speaker 1: up you know, one hundred plus yards every single game.

356
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Speaker 1: But I think he has a really good shot. He's

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Speaker 1: still one of the most efficient running backs in the league.

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Speaker 1: This is you know, and the Bills have just been

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Speaker 1: a lot more run heavy too, So even though Cook

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Speaker 1: is still getting about seventy percent or so of the

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Speaker 1: backfield touches on average, it's still a lot of It

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Speaker 1: ends up being a lot of touches because the Bills

363
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 1: are have gotten so much more run heavy since Brady

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Speaker 1: took over. And this is a game, you know, in

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Speaker 1: the colde in Buffalo, you're a home favorite. We always

366
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Speaker 1: like that for running backs going up against the Chiefs,

367
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Speaker 1: who his weakness is on the ground, So love Cook

368
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Speaker 1: to have another big one. Perhaps he busts in an

369
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Speaker 1: explosive or something like that, and the chase really you know,

370
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Speaker 1: their pass defense is really strong. You know, they have

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Speaker 1: a lot of good cornerbacks. You know they can and

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Speaker 1: they can defend the pass. So I think you might

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Speaker 1: see some dump offfs to Cook as well. I know

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Speaker 1: Gosh Allen doesn't do that a ton, but you might

375
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Speaker 1: see some of that. You might see some design screens

376
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: in this game, a lot of different things. But I

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00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,400
Speaker 1: think Cook has to be, outside of Josh Allen obviously

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00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 1: the centerpiece of this Bill's offense because Stefon Diggs in

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00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 1: this current offense is just not He's not the dominant

380
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 1: force that he was in years past, and in this

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Speaker 1: kind of game, postseason, cold weather game, I think it

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Speaker 1: sets up well for Cook. So love me some Cook

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Speaker 1: going up against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and his seventy percent of the running back rush

385
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Speaker 2: attempt share, it's kind of misleading because seven of Ty

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Speaker 2: Johnson's eight carries came on the final drive when they

387
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,120
Speaker 2: were clearly going to win. They're just trying to selt

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00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 2: the game away. He's got seven straight rush attempts. So

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Speaker 2: if the game was closer, I mean, James Cook would

390
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 2: have just seen a ton of carries. So they're clearly

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Speaker 2: leaning on him even more now that they're in must

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Speaker 2: win games in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, if there's one thing like about last

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Speaker 1: weekend I noticed, it's just like some teams are just

395
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Speaker 1: it just mystifying what they're doing with these running back

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00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 1: carries like I remember having, like I had Jayvin Warren

397
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Speaker 1: under nine and a half and eight and a half,

398
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 1: and like the Steers are given draw plays to him

399
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 1: down two scores open to drive. It's like, what are

400
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 1: y'all doing? So hopefully? Uh, you know the Bills just

401
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 1: feed Cook and don't do any stupidness. Uh, like you

402
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 1: you don't really need to be given Ty Johnson carries,

403
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: to be honest. You know, they've they've figured out that

404
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:30,959
Speaker 1: they don't need to give Murray carry, so I give

405
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Speaker 1: him pread.

406
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Speaker 2: I mean, I had that under nine and a half

407
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 2: rushing yards, and I think it's the second drive. He

408
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 2: was in there on the opening snap and drinted it

409
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: was a play action pass. He didn't see a single carry.

410
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Speaker 2: But we're seeing all these weird trends and occur in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, and it's yeah, it's mind boggling.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So that that is, you know, not necessarily related

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00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 1: to running backs in particular. But something I did notice

414
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Speaker 1: is I do think in these playoff games, teams do

415
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Speaker 1: make a little bit more of an effort to break tendency. Yeah,

416
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, for example, they're man heavy and passed heavy.

417
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 1: They're man heavy on defense and pass heavy on offense.

418
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: They came out and tried to run, and they played

419
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 1: a lot of zone, and they came out playing zone

420
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Speaker 1: and then you know, you saw like the Tavious Murray

421
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Speaker 1: in the game, who's usually a you know, they're usually

422
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: gonna hand it off to him and they end up

423
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Speaker 1: play actioning. So a lot of different teams. I think

424
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: are aware of the tendencies, and sometimes I think they're

425
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: trying to get too cute, trying to break these tennessees.

426
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Speaker 1: But that is something to kind of pay attention to us.

427
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 1: We're looking at all these projections. But who are you

428
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Speaker 1: low on?

429
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: Back? Devin Singletary. I believe I said I was high

430
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 2: on him last week. This week I'm low on He's

431
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 2: my RB eight. You know, he's been banking on just

432
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 2: massive volume over the last few weeks, just because he's

433
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,719
Speaker 2: become more of a true workhorse back. It's it's been

434
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 2: crazy to see just how little snaps Damian Pierce is

435
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: getting now. I mean, you call that on his under

436
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,479
Speaker 2: nine and a half rushing yards, It's insane. That's what

437
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: his prop is now, and the clear values on the under.

438
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 2: But you know, even the pass.

439
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 1: It's up, it's up. The Pierce prop is up.

440
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: No, I'm saying last week, I don't think they're going

441
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 2: to offer anything.

442
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: I went straight to sports. I was so ready to

443
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: hammer that.

444
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 2: You know, I'll, you know, on the side if that happens,

445
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 2: I won't be breaking news right now. But you know,

446
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: even the past two weeks, even that massive volume really

447
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 2: wasn't enough for Singletary. H he only saw sixty five

448
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 2: and seventy total yards, but he was able to score

449
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: a touchdown in each of those games. But that's just

450
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 2: going to be tougher to get on the board that way.

451
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: Against the Ravens, the Texans have the lowest team total

452
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 2: by far the weekend, right around seventeen to eighteen points,

453
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 2: which is obviously very very low for the Texans. So

454
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 2: just given you know, Singletary's efficiency being lower, especially with

455
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 2: the tougher matchup and the much much lower odds of

456
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 2: actually scoring a touch on here, I'm very low on

457
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 2: Singletary here. So he's my lowest rank starting running back

458
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: this week at RB eight.

459
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there with you. I actually gave out

460
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 1: as one of my top picks, one of my six

461
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: pack picks on this week's Action Network pod is Singletary

462
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: under sixteen and a half receiving yards, you know, so

463
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. He plays, you know a lot,

464
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 1: he plays almost every snap on early downs, he will

465
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 1: come out on third downs and you know other you know,

466
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: sometimes in a hurry up as well for a goombawalle

467
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: And like I said, we haven't really seen too much

468
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 1: of Houston trailings, especially big since a Singletary became the

469
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 1: lead back. There's been a couple of games in there,

470
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: but more for the most part, especially with CJ. Stroud,

471
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: the games have been close or the Texans have been winning.

472
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: So I think Singletary actually might see a lower percentage

473
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: of past snaps than he has because there will be

474
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: there could be more third downs, more you know, you know,

475
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: hurry up and things like that you might not necessarily

476
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 1: be in on. And the Ravens have really good linebackers

477
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 1: and you know, you have ro qwant Smith and Patrick Queen,

478
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 1: so it's not easy to get, you know, to just

479
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: shake those guys. So yeah, I think it'll be a

480
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:16,360
Speaker 1: tough game for Singletary all around. But I am already

481
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: on his on his receiving under I am low on

482
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,199
Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards e layer at Buffalo, and I kind of,

483
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: you know, talked about how there would be a guy

484
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 1: that kind of relates to your being high in Pacheco.

485
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: And I think another reason to like Pachecko is he

486
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 1: might get almost every snap in this game because he

487
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 1: might look tempting, you know, for dfsor or something like that.

488
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: Eight touches last week, and you know McKinnon still out,

489
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: Michael p Ryan is not seeing the field as the

490
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: number three backs, so you know, it is a kind

491
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: of a tempting spot here. But eight of those touch,

492
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 1: eight touches, four of those eight touches, four of the

493
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: seven carries were the last uh four carries of the

494
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: game for the Chiefs when they were trying to milk

495
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: the clock, and he fumbled on the last one, which

496
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: almost made you have a heart attack, which you're too

497
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: under under completion. So you know there's a chance that

498
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: in this game it's just Pacheco. I mean we've seen

499
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 1: Pacheco get every backfield carry before two games ago. Now

500
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 1: Cech was out for that game. I think p Rn

501
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: was the the RB two. But still it's it's happened before.

502
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 1: And you know, Edwards Laire has been playing more, you know,

503
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 1: kind of the McKinnon roll light. Not not quite as

504
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: many pass naps as mcinnon, but he has been playing

505
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: some pass naps. But like you said, I think, you know,

506
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 1: if if Kansas City is in a closer game, they're

507
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: gonna need more of their best player in the backfield

508
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 1: than that is Pacheco. So I could see Pacheco getting

509
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 1: you know, eighty five ninety percent of the snaps in

510
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: this one. I could see Ce not getting a touch

511
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: or only getting one or two. So I am not

512
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 1: chasing those eight touches from last week?

513
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: All right?

514
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: What are you doing for the problem?

515
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: All right? So one of my rare losses over the

516
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 2: weekend was Jamior Gibbs over fifty and a half rushing yards.

517
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: It was looking really good early on but fizzled out.

518
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna help need you to help sharpen my

519
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: Jamior Gibbs rushing prop for me this week. But I

520
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 2: haven't seen the market for this, so I don't know

521
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 2: where it's at right now. So I'm just gonna give

522
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 2: out where I'm projecting him. I have met fifty two

523
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards against the bucks. Here are

524
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: you over under that?

525
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 1: Ooh, that is a great line. I am right at that,

526
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: like literally right at that. I think, Yeah, my median

527
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: would be sl my media would be fifty two. Okay,

528
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 1: that's a great line. I'm gonna I'm gonna go wonder

529
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: for what it's worth the market actually is under both

530
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: of us. The market is oh no, forty four and

531
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. So I'm gonna, I'm just gonna,

532
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: you know, go wisdom of the crowds here and it

533
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: will probably move in our direction. Yeah, just curious, what

534
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: do you have for let me do the under, but

535
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: what do you have for the uh? What do you

536
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 1: have for Gibbs and Montgomery carries? Like what's the split tree?

537
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 2: Gibbs at eleven and Montgomery just under fourteen, So let's

538
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 2: let's call it thirteen and a half. But I was

539
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 2: a bit surprised on just how much work Montgomery got

540
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 2: last week, especially how good Gibbs looked early on. I

541
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 2: didn't like some of the play calls they did have

542
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: for Gibbs. They kind of put him in bad situations.

543
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, like, can can you like talk me off

544
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: just betting Gibbs over forty four and a half right now?

545
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: I can't, I think, I mean, he's been over that

546
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: in more than half the game. I think that is decide.

547
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: I don't. I can't see myself going much lower again.

548
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: I'm just you know, I think this butt game is

549
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: going to have a lot of yardage. You know, it's indoors,

550
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: probably maybe a few more points than we think, but

551
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: it is it had. The only thing I'll say is

552
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 1: it is one of those projections that probably a little

553
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: bit more variant than the usual projection because you're dealing

554
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: with two backs who are kind of close to fifty

555
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: to fifty. So in any like last week, as you mentioned,

556
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: we saw a lot of Montgomery. We just talked about

557
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: how these teams are trying to make it a more

558
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: of a point to break tendency. So this could be

559
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: a Gibbs heavy game scrip. So it's really tough to

560
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: kind of project that and definitively say that. But definitely,

561
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: I think the ceiling is very high and the floor

562
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: is fairly high, because you know, he's not gonna get

563
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 1: under like, you know, forty ish percent of it's not

564
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: probably gonna go under sixty forty. But yeah, it's it's

565
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 1: really tough, but yeah, I have him at I have

566
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: him like eleven four fifty two as well, and Montguar

567
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: just under fourteen as well.

568
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: Carries. Yeah. Yeah, the only real problem. My only two

569
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 2: losses of the weekend were over bets. My only real

570
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,239
Speaker 2: problem is always getting myself to like taken over. I

571
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 2: have no problem taking it under, So part of my

572
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 2: concerns is being on the over here. If anything, maybe

573
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 2: I'll take like Gibbs to lead the game in rushing

574
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 2: yards at like you know, five to one or something

575
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: like that. That might be the better way to invest

576
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: in the ceiling than taking the over on his meeting.

577
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 2: And again I don't I don't know if I could

578
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 2: do it.

579
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would another guy who I think

580
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: is a really good DFS play because he is priced up.

581
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: But again, like this might be a Gibbs week because

582
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: last week was Montgomer's week, and I think that's how

583
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 1: these teams kind of especially when you're kind of embarrassment

584
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: of Richards like the Lions, you can you could do that,

585
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: you can feature different guys each and every week next

586
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: to a Monra. So but yeah, I'm going under fifty

587
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: two and a half just because I have it just under.

588
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:03,520
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Speaker 1: America's number one meal kid receiver Top five.

617
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: You got Wow, this is a fun Top five. Love

618
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 2: this this sleigh up receiver. But I got Iman Ross

619
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 2: Saint Brown number one. Then I have Debo, Nico Collins,

620
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 2: Brandon Ayuk and Rashi Rice.

621
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: I have a Mom Ross Saying Brown number one, Nico

622
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: number two, Debo number three, Rashi Rice number four, and

623
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: Mike Evans number five.

624
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 2: Oh nice, and I you probably number six number six.

625
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, Green Bays is kind

626
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: of zone usually zone heavy under joke Joe Barry, and

627
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: that's usually signals. I mean, I kills it against any coverage,

628
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 1: but yeah, team plays tends towards zone. That tends to

629
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 1: be when Deebo really goes off. Uh, you know, not

630
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 1: quite as great against against man coverage. At least that's

631
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: how it's been over the last couple of years, So

632
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: that's that's the only reason I have Ayuka Little for

633
00:33:59,240 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: just out time.

634
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 2: But who hi, All right, Raybaund, plug your ears. I'm

635
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 2: high on Romeo Dobbs against the Niners. He's my wide

636
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: receiver eleven. Last week. You know, Dobb's going off was

637
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 2: a bit unexpected against Dallas because leading into last week

638
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 2: they did use man coverage at the third highest rate

639
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 2: around thirty five percent of the time, and as you

640
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: pointed out, Dobbs ranked dead last, dead last out of

641
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 2: eighty nine qualified wide receivers and routes run or yards

642
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: per route run against man coverage. He's top twenty against

643
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 2: his own So in theory, facing a Niners team that

644
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: uses man cover just around twenty percent of the time

645
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 2: the eleventh flowst rate would expect Dobbs to be in

646
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 2: a better spot here. Plus he's prob. The Packers wide

647
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: receivers are always tough to project, but even more now

648
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 2: with Bo Melton now in the mex and everybody healthy.

649
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 2: But I think Dobbs is probably the safest bet to

650
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: have an eighty percent plus routes run rate, So I

651
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 2: love him here this week. His you know, his rostership

652
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 2: in dfs will probably be higher after last week, but

653
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: either way, just based on the matchup and how well

654
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 2: Jordan Love is playing right now, I do think Dobbs is,

655
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 2: you know, pushing top ten value here this week.

656
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was I mean the only thing that could

657
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 1: go wrong, I guess is I'm not the only thing.

658
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: But like is if San Francisco says we want to

659
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 1: break tendency, we're at zone heavy team and they they

660
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: start manning everybody up, which I mean that would that

661
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 1: would be knowing, knowing, knowing, like just how everything else

662
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 1: gone with this Green Bay Receiving Corp. But yeah, I agree.

663
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: I have Dobs projected for the most routes of these

664
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: green Baby receivers at at eighty percent on the on

665
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: the dot actually, so I'm right there with you. He's

666
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: my wide receiver eleven as well, Jayden Reaves my wide

667
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 1: receiver ten, so same, they're both Yeah, they're both right there.

668
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: But I'm just curious, what do you have roots like

669
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 1: right now for the like routes with Like, I'm guessing

670
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: you have Dobs around eighty percent. But the rest of

671
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: these guys, they've been kind of up and down, you know,

672
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: read Wix and Watson in particular.

673
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, Reid is probably the most tricky because

674
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 2: every week I'm showing like massive value on his under

675
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: four and a half receptions, but I just can't get

676
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:18,320
Speaker 2: there because his routes run rate has been so low recently,

677
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 2: probably because of the injury. So I have him around

678
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 2: sixty four percent here, and I don't feel great about it.

679
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 2: And the other thing with Reed, they just stopped giving

680
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 2: him design rush attempts, like we were projecting him for

681
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 2: what three carries a game for a hot minute there.

682
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 2: Now it's you know, under five half For me, I

683
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 2: think part of I I kind of call that when

684
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones is that I thought they might start getting

685
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: read some more design rush attempts, because you know, you

686
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: need some lightning to at least go along with AJ

687
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 2: Dillon's thunder. But with Aaron Jones back, maybe they just

688
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: thought there's no reason to do that, especially with Reid

689
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 2: playing through injury. So yeah, right now I have Reid

690
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: at sixty four percent routes run rate with very little

691
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: you know, usage in the run game. I think Wicks

692
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 2: is probably their number three receiver in my opinion, so

693
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 2: I have him around sixty five percent and then Christian Watson,

694
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 2: who the hell knows, I have him forty five percent,

695
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 2: and Bo Melton, the mystery that is Bo Melton I

696
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 2: have at thirty percent.

697
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 1: Oh interesting, Okay, so I have a little different I

698
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 1: have Dobbs eighty percent read sixty five percent, So that's

699
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 1: kind of saying.

700
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: The exact same projection there.

701
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 1: And then so Wis and Watson both at fifty five

702
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 1: percent because I really don't know. Okay, they kind they

703
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 1: kind of added up to right around one hundred last game.

704
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 1: But I think if things are closer, uh you know,

705
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: they they won't it won't. They'll get more snaps and

706
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 1: Melton will probably get So I have Wix and Watson

707
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: at fifty five each and then Melton at twenty. So

708
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 1: oh yeah, just going a whittle low for him.

709
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm careful not to move Melton down

710
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: too much. He's being used, yeah, too much. And I

711
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 2: love wos I at right now. I think Wix is

712
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 2: probably better than Watson. I think Wex could be a

713
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 2: sleeper pick next year. So, uh, I could see why

714
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: you having fifty five each, But I'm just very careful

715
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 2: moving Wix down because I think the packers love him.

716
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 2: I think he's underrated, and with Watson, you just never

717
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 2: know if he can make it through a full game.

718
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,240
Speaker 2: So yeah, those two are probably the trickiest to project

719
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 2: right now for sure, though.

720
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 1: I mean if you have Watson like at forty five,

721
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: I mean you must have his like receiving yard. He's

722
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: got like twenty like meeting like twenty fox three or

723
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 1: something like that, right.

724
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and it's props what thirty right now?

725
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's let's see if you're listening. Yeah, yeah,

726
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 1: it's twenty nine and a half. It's twenty six and

727
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 1: a half at bed MGM, and yeah it's it's it's

728
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: even might be higher than there at some spots, but yeah,

729
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: it's I guess it's coming down. So not not sure,

730
00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 1: it's a ton of that, but you definitely are decided

731
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 1: we under. Yeah, like the market is with you, like Wix.

732
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: They have Wix at ben and VM at thirty five

733
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: and a half, So I mean I'm under both of them,

734
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 1: to be honest with you, it's just kind of but

735
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: it is.

736
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: It's such a tricky projection. So yeah, if anything, I

737
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 2: wouldn't I would love fading his receiving yards because you know,

738
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 2: he gets downfield targets. He is an explosive player with

739
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 2: the ball in his hands. Maybe his under two and

740
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 2: half receptions looks like it's around minus one fifty minus

741
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 2: one fifty five might be the way to go. But

742
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 2: again we're talking about a very vulnerable situation, so it's

743
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 2: we're not going to be as confident when we're talking

744
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 2: about me and in projection. So I'm not saying I

745
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 2: would go there, but as of now, I'd be more

746
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 2: willing to invest in Watson's floor than anything right now.

747
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed. I mean, it's it's only a matter of time,

748
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: Like he's gonna he's gonna pop off for like any

749
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 1: seventy five years touchdown at some point. So and if

750
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 1: he does that, then everyone else might hit the under.

751
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 1: So it's it's it is, it's very tricky. I'm high

752
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 1: on Chris Godwin at the Lions now is for a

753
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: couple of reasons. Number one, the matchup Detroit has their

754
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: best cornerback and coverage, of my opinion, inside you know branch.

755
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 1: You also have CJ who can who could do some

756
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: of that. Sutton could follow Evans stuck and I talked

757
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 1: about this on the Action Network pod, so Godwin likely

758
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: he's been playing in the spot less these days, could

759
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: match up the most on Kendall Vildor, who who has

760
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: a fifty one point seven PFF coverage grade number one

761
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: ten out of one hundred and twenty eight qualified corners.

762
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 1: And Godwin's been pretty productive over this last six games,

763
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: five point seven catches, seventy seven yards and two touchdowns

764
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: in those six last six games. So like Godwin in

765
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 1: this spot indoors could be a trailing game. Script should

766
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 1: be a good matchup, and they're moving him around so

767
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: should be able to find some saft spots in his

768
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 1: own or if you know, if they play man, it's

769
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: probably going to be billdor more often than not. And

770
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:14,439
Speaker 1: Godwin definitely advantaged Godwin in that scenario. So like Chris

771
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 1: Godwin and I know, it kind of goes right into

772
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:18,760
Speaker 1: who you're Lowa.

773
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm low on Trey Palmer. He's my wide

774
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 2: receiver in nineteen. You know, I mentioned I was high

775
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 2: on him. Last week. He was my dart throw. We

776
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 2: were all over him and our action island parlay. Shout

777
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: out to Nick Giffim for throwing him out him out

778
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:40,240
Speaker 2: there for his anytime touchdown prop that parlay hit thirty

779
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 2: two to one. The last play that cashed it was

780
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 2: that Trey Palmer touchdown. However, that fifty six yard touchdown,

781
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 2: I should say it was great play. However, I should

782
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 2: say that was his only reception of the game and

783
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 2: the most alarming thing. And I can't wait to hear

784
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 2: what your take on this is because I can't figure

785
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,280
Speaker 2: it out. But he only ran a route on thirty

786
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 2: three percent of Baker's dropbacks, which was about half of

787
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,799
Speaker 2: the percentage that he usually runs. I'm not sure why

788
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 2: it fell off that much, but it did come into

789
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 2: the expense of David Moore, who had a forty two

790
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,879
Speaker 2: percent routes run rate. He had a great game as well.

791
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 2: He also had a nice long touchdown the Bucks. Also,

792
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 2: you know, they use more too tight end personnel due

793
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: to the fact they were up by one or two

794
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 2: plus scores for most of the game. So you know,

795
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 2: here Palmer already had a low usage rate for a player,

796
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 2: you know, with a seventy percent plus routes run rate

797
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 2: kind of playing time rate. But he can't afford to

798
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 2: also see his playing time take a hit. So I

799
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 2: much longer run this week. But any idea why he

800
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,359
Speaker 2: saw his routes run rate take such a big hit

801
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 2: other than just David Moore playing really well. Well there, no.

802
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 1: I think I think that's really what it is. I mean,

803
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: you know, i'd noticed that too. During the game. I

804
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: was talking to our guy Matthew Treby, and you know,

805
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 1: he was like, I think Palmer's second half receiving line

806
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: and over under was six and a half, which obviously

807
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 1: beat by fifty yards on that touchdown. But I was saying,

808
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: you know, it seems like he's kind of getting usurped

809
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: a little bit by David Moore. And David Moore has

810
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: been playing well, David Moore has been the better run

811
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: blocker this year. David Moore has been, you know, the

812
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: higher graded receiver at PFF this year. So you know,

813
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 1: it's and David Moore, like you said, more yards, more catches,

814
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: and just as many touchdowns as Palmer in that game,

815
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 1: two for sixty six and a touchdown himself. So I

816
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 1: thought More looked really good in the preseason. Was kind

817
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 1: of surprised that he didn't make the final roster, but

818
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 1: it's kind of telling that in the first, you know,

819
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: week of the playoffs, it's David Moore and Palmer essentially

820
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: split in snaps. You know, I still have Palmer projected

821
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 1: for more, but I got kernered in the market, so

822
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: I gave out Palmer under twenty and a half receiving

823
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: yards on the network pods as one of my six

824
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 1: pack picks, and it's down to it's between fifteen and

825
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 1: a half and seventeen and a half everywhere. I think

826
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half at bet MGM, but I mean

827
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 1: it it lost, and it was it was. I actually

828
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: got it at twenty one and a half, so it's

829
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: it's lost like four to six yards, which I think

830
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 1: is correct. But yeah, so rip to that prop. I

831
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: can't bet that anymore. But I'm right there with you

832
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 1: for the second time, second position in a row. You know,

833
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 1: Singletary out low on bet is receiving under Palmer also

834
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 1: same thing, And I think this is one of the

835
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 1: best times to bet and under on a guy like

836
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: this is you know, a fifty six yard touchdown is

837
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 1: going to naturally inflate your average when you're only you

838
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 1: know your median is under twenty yards receiving or right

839
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 1: around twenty yards receiving, and probably get lower than that.

840
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 1: Now because again losing some snaps. So yeah, I think

841
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 1: this is a great time to sell high on him.

842
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 1: Last week we bought him, so yeah, I'm well on

843
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: Palmer as well.

844
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 2: Just keep giving out his under like I did with

845
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 2: Dawson Knox. They gave it out like four different times,

846
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 2: each time a yard lower, which is brutal when you're

847
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 2: talking about, you know, a prop in the twelve and

848
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 2: a half yard range. So I think you just stick

849
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: with it. You got to be careful that you don't

850
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 2: accidentally piss him off because one of the reasons Nick

851
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 2: did like his touchdown prop is he has scored a

852
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 2: touchdown after every single time he's tweeted that he was

853
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 2: pissed off heading in the game, so that's like five

854
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 2: or six times, So be careful to not piss him off.

855
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 2: Maybe he's pissed off that he saw his playing time

856
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 2: chopped in half two. So whatever we do, we do

857
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 2: not want to piss off Trey Palmer.

858
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really like not to because that was one

859
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: of the first bets. If nothing, Yeah, it was the

860
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 1: first bet I made this week. Actually, I was that

861
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 1: was a one line that was just I saw completely

862
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 1: out of whack at twenty one and a half. It's

863
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 1: still seventeen and a half at bet MGM dropping. Yeah,

864
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: my median is sixteen for him, So don't really show

865
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: a ton of value at the seventeen and a half,

866
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 1: like slight, you know, if you're just spraying the board

867
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 1: and you just want the right side. I think still

868
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 1: the under, but the market has kind of caught up

869
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: to my to my chagrin, but I'm gonna go low

870
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 1: on a guy that I hate. I hate doing this

871
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 1: because he's just so good. But I mean, we just

872
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 1: haven't seen enough production lately to justify, you know, the

873
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 1: DFS price, and you know, I think the props are

874
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,919
Speaker 1: going to be a little bit high for him as well.

875
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: And that's Stefon Diggs up against the Kansas City Chiefs.

876
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 1: He you know, the Chiefs are fifth in DVOA against

877
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 1: number one wide receivers according to FTN. They are second

878
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:52,479
Speaker 1: on defense in fewest schedule adjusted receiving yards per game

879
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 1: allowed to number one wide receivers, just just under fifty,

880
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,439
Speaker 1: which is you know, that's nothing. So that that tells

881
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,760
Speaker 1: you just how good Kansas City's been. Kansas City actually

882
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:08,439
Speaker 1: has four cornerbacks. Three cornerbacks in the top thirty one

883
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 1: in PFF covered grade and a fourth at number fifty

884
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 1: six out of one twenty eight. So they have the

885
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 1: number four, the number twenty five, number thirty one, and

886
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 1: the number fifty six, So they have corners for days.

887
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 1: You know they can. And you know the way this

888
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: Bill's offense is, you know, even if Gave Davis returns,

889
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 1: he's not a he's not a guy like he's not

890
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: a high volume guy. And then it's just you know,

891
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:31,879
Speaker 1: tight ends mostly in back, so you could take out

892
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 1: Digs a little bit, you know, more than I feel

893
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 1: like you have been in years pass especially with Buffalo

894
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,760
Speaker 1: being so much more run heavy under offensive new offensive

895
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:46,240
Speaker 1: coordinator excuse me, Joe Brady. In the eight games since

896
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,879
Speaker 1: Brady took over for Ken Dorsey, Stefan Diggs five point

897
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 1: one catches forty six yards per game with just one

898
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 1: touchdown in those eight games. So you know that's not

899
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 1: that's just not going to cut it. And now you're

900
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 1: now you're facing a tough matchup so and you're a

901
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 1: home favorite, so that also is not ideal because you

902
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: know there was a time earlier in the year when

903
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 1: Buffalo is what the eleventh seed you know, and that,

904
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 1: and Diggs was still putting up numbers. He had some

905
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: really good games against tough matchups, so it's not out

906
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: of the question. But his floor, his median, it just

907
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 1: keeps creeping down because now we're now we're up to

908
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 1: eight games of the averaging you know, receiving yardage in

909
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 1: the mid forties. So low on Stefan Diggs. All right,

910
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: Let's see what am I going to do for the prop.

911
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 1: Let's go with Sefon Diggs because I think he's he's

912
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: he's really tough to project just a lot. You know,

913
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,359
Speaker 1: how how run heavy is the are the bills going

914
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 1: to go? You know, is you know, we don't know

915
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 1: if Gave Davis is going to be back, So it's

916
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 1: it's a tough projection. But so it's but I you know,

917
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 1: it's it's one that I'm kind of the most uncertain about.

918
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: So let's go with Let's go with sixty two and

919
00:48:58,320 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 1: a half receiving yards.

920
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 2: Damn it, that is like literally what I got. You

921
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 2: just mentioned Gay Davis. So I have Gabe playing playing,

922
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 2: you know, running around on around sixty five percent of dropbacks.

923
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 2: So I'm going to use this as a deciding factor.

924
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: I'm going to see what happens if Gabe Davis is

925
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 2: out because he hasn't practiced yet, right, No, he has not, Okay,

926
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 2: so let's see what happens if Gabe Davis is out.

927
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 2: Could it could go either way? I think, yeah, Diggs

928
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 2: prop goes up. Just to Tad, I'm going to go

929
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 2: at the over. That is a great line. That is

930
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,239
Speaker 2: exactly where I have it at. But just the potential

931
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:37,439
Speaker 2: of Gabe Davis being ruled out and seeming I guess

932
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 2: at this point more likely leans me to the over.

933
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 2: So just I'm a couple of yards above you, then yeah,

934
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 2: he's I.

935
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 1: Mean, it's just been a nightmare projecting him because he's

936
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 1: like there's also that span you know, kind of when

937
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:53,479
Speaker 1: Brady took over, where Diggs's route participation rate went way down,

938
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,760
Speaker 1: you know, but his target rate went up like per route,

939
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 1: So it's kind of it was kind of weird. It's

940
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,479
Speaker 1: just like really tough to project. But I mean over,

941
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 1: like in those games since Brady to go over twenty seven,

942
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: seventy four, twenty four, forty eight, twenty nine, twenty six,

943
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: eighty seven to fifty two, so he's been over that

944
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 1: number and only two of his eight so far, so

945
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 1: it's it's so tough to project.

946
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: I remember reading I didn't see it, but I guess

947
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 2: somebody in the media asked McDermott about Diggs's playing time

948
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:29,839
Speaker 2: and someone from their PR team interrupted him or something.

949
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 2: He didn't answer it, but it was like he wasn't

950
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 2: on to talk about it. So I wonder what was

951
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 2: going on there. I noticed that too, that's I didn't.

952
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 2: I love some juicy things like this. I'm gonna have

953
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 2: to like dive in a little bit more. But those

954
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 2: concerns have been lifted. He's top ninety percent in the

955
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 2: past two games. But I wonder if there was an

956
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 2: injury or something was going on that we weren't privy to.

957
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 2: But McDermott didn't answer it, and I guess he was

958
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 2: like interrupted before he could.

959
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 1: It's weird. I mean, his the lorong numbers still look five,

960
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 1: you know, one hundred and sixty targets, one hundred and

961
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,799
Speaker 1: seven catches, one and eighty three yards. You know, it's

962
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: it's not but it's just like there was just a

963
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 1: huge downtick around mid season when they when they switch coordinators.

964
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, I remember Diggs had that weird, you know whatever.

965
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 1: It was earlier in camp where they thought him and

966
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 1: they had he had like an issue with the offense,

967
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 1: and you know, I think he like did you like

968
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 1: sit out a couple of days of camp or like

969
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 1: no showed or something and there was like news and

970
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 1: Josh Allen had I don't know what's been going on

971
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 1: with him, but.

972
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: I don't know. But anytime I have like the over

973
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 2: running his prop, I do notice he kind of takes

974
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 2: himself out of the game a lot, like he'll have

975
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 2: his mouthpiece fall out. Yeah, it's like I'm gonna sit

976
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 2: out this play. Like that's why his rough turn rate

977
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 2: are always a little bit lower if you watch the game.

978
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 2: A lot of times he just kind of takes himself

979
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 2: out of the play, which is kind of bizarre, but

980
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 2: that that's been a common theme for him for a

981
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 2: few years now.

982
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 1: Maybe his agent negotiated like he only has to play

983
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:58,839
Speaker 1: X amount of run blocking snaps or something. I don't know,

984
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,240
Speaker 1: And he's taying he's been well, but yeah, tough matchup.

985
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 1: So interested to see where that one lands. But let's

986
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:07,240
Speaker 1: go to tight end. Who you got in the top five?

987
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey, George Kittle, Sam Laporta, Daltonton Caid, and Mark Andrews.

988
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 2: For for now, you know, he's he's return to practice,

989
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 2: but they're saying that he's he's not like a lock

990
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 2: to play this week or anything. But if he does,

991
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 2: I have him right around tight end five.

992
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: Actually, if he plays, I'd still have him outside the

993
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 1: top five because I don't I don't think. I think

994
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 1: he'd be a little more situational, you know, like third down,

995
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 1: passing down the red zone, things like that.

996
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 2: Sounds like pretty sounds like pretty key downs to me.

997
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 1: I mean, no, it is. But you know, Baltimore as

998
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,320
Speaker 1: it is a big favorite, so they might not be

999
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 1: quite like if they were a nine ten point underdog,

1000
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 1: then it'd be a little easier to kind of just

1001
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 1: project him for a good amount of targets. But it's

1002
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: kind of just up in the air right now. I

1003
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 1: guess we just have to keep hiring it. But I

1004
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: got Kelsey Kittle, Aporta, Dalton Schultz and Dalton kin Kid

1005
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:03,200
Speaker 1: and it's another other guy that cashed that under with

1006
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 1: the oh my god, I dropped.

1007
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 2: That long that Yeah, So that must have been the

1008
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 2: first play of the game. I think it was about

1009
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 2: twenty air yards and he probably had room to run

1010
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 2: after that. And when he dropped it, like half the

1011
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 2: people in the bar turned and looked at me. It

1012
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:24,439
Speaker 2: was very uncomfortable, uh, sweating it under at the bar.

1013
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 2: But then yeah, when he when Stroud chucked it deep,

1014
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 2: uh you know, I I kind of complained that the

1015
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:34,479
Speaker 2: TV broadcast camera, but you can't tell who I'm throwing

1016
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 2: it to. I had no idea where the ball's going,

1017
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:38,719
Speaker 2: but I thought since Troud was checking it so far

1018
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 2: down the field, I was safe. And sure enough, Dalton

1019
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,239
Speaker 2: Chultz is the one that was under the ball, caught

1020
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 2: the touchdown. Somehow survived that thanks to those picks, those

1021
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 2: back to back pick six has probably helped me out there.

1022
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 2: But yeah, that was only his only catch of the game.

1023
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 2: And I survived. You know, the bar looking at me

1024
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 2: anytime chils true target. So hap hap really happy to

1025
00:53:59,480 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 2: win that bet.

1026
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 1: He's one of us survived because when Romeo dobs, I

1027
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 1: mean he he not only went over, he went over

1028
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:08,360
Speaker 1: four times, like four or five times over.

1029
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 2: So early the way.

1030
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:14,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it was the third play of the game,

1031
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: the third pass of the game, and the third play

1032
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:19,720
Speaker 1: of the game for Houston Schultz that that day.

1033
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 2: You were coming back from the bathroom and I had

1034
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,760
Speaker 2: already seen on my dots on my phone what was coming,

1035
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 2: and I tried to prepare him, protect you from the

1036
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:31,479
Speaker 2: misery of that. But yeah, it was the right play.

1037
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 2: It was the right play, all right.

1038
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 1: Who you hiring at tight end?

1039
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 2: All right? So I'm high on Samlporta. He's my tight

1040
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 2: end three. And to be honest, it was a bit

1041
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 2: shocking that he was even able to play last week.

1042
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 2: You know, he hyper extended and had a bone bruise

1043
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 2: on his knee, had to be wear that huge knee brace.

1044
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 2: But he did manage to run her out on eighty

1045
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: percent of golf's drop back, so he's probably more healthy

1046
00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 2: than I even thought he would be. He was kind

1047
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 2: of you know, he had the modest receiving line of

1048
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: three catches, fourteen yards and a touchdown, so he kind

1049
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 2: of bailed out his fantasy line with the touchdown. But

1050
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:11,040
Speaker 2: you have to imagine, you know, he's only going to

1051
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 2: get healthier as the playoffs go on, So well, he

1052
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:17,800
Speaker 2: might not be one hundred percent this upcoming week, he

1053
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 2: should be a lot closer than he was last week.

1054
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 2: And I thought he looked okay last week, so I

1055
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 2: think he's back in the top three status. He obviously

1056
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: has a ton of upside, had an amazing rookie season,

1057
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 2: so I think he's a player that people might be

1058
00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 2: sleeping on because they did see him be a bit

1059
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 2: hindered last week. But again, I think he's only eight healthier,

1060
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 2: so I'm bumping him up this week.

1061
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm surprised the market is as well as it

1062
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 1: is on Laporta given that he practicing full for the

1063
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 1: last practice of the week last week. And then yeah,

1064
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 1: Plait is usual a lot min the snaps, So yeah,

1065
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 1: I'm higher than the market. Again, that doesn't mean i'm

1066
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 1: betting over's like, you know, I'm like five five ish,

1067
00:55:57,719 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 1: let's see. Yeah, it's forty and a half at bet MGM.

1068
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 1: I'm at about forty five for his receiving yards, so

1069
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit over there. But yeah, I'm surprised,

1070
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 1: and it was lower. I think it's gone up a

1071
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 1: little bit. I think it was in the high thirty

1072
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 1: mid thirties earlier in the week, so I probably should

1073
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 1: hit that. Yeah, but yeah, I'm surprised the market was

1074
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 1: that well. I guess kind of still treating him like

1075
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,479
Speaker 1: he is not one hundred percent, which I mean is fair,

1076
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:26,799
Speaker 1: you know, but you know, Golf has been playing well

1077
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 1: his games indoors, and he didn't. You know, when if

1078
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:33,240
Speaker 1: you don't take any snaps off, that's like you've played

1079
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:35,720
Speaker 1: in your usual allotment of snaps. I'm not really gonna

1080
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 1: ding you too much for an injury. I am high

1081
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,280
Speaker 1: on George Kittle. I think this is a good spot

1082
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 1: for him. I know, you know it's the temperature are

1083
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 1: gonna be in the mid fifties. You could You're probably

1084
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,399
Speaker 1: gonna see some rain in this game. I don't think

1085
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: it will affect things too much here, but you know,

1086
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: obviously that is something to monitor with not just Kiddle,

1087
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:58,439
Speaker 1: but all every member of the San Francisco in Green

1088
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:01,320
Speaker 1: Bay passing game. Right now we are you do expect

1089
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 1: double digit mile power wins and some rain, so could

1090
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:08,239
Speaker 1: get a little dicey. But Kittle's not a massive downfield

1091
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:11,839
Speaker 1: target anyway, So if perty has to, you know, use

1092
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 1: the quick game or the short passing game a little more.

1093
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: That actually helps Kittle. Another thing I noticed with Kittle

1094
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 1: he has pretty massive home road splits, especially this year

1095
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 1: at home He's averaging five just under five and a

1096
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 1: half catches for eighty seven yards with point seven touchdowns

1097
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 1: on the road just three catches forty six yards and

1098
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 1: point one touchdowns, and in his career at home sixty

1099
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 1: nine yards on the road fifty nine yards and at

1100
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:44,520
Speaker 1: home zero point four to four touchdowns on the road

1101
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 1: point three to two touchdowns. So he has been one

1102
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 1: of those guys. And it makes sense because at home,

1103
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 1: you know, teams play better, they expected to score more touchdowns.

1104
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 1: Tight ends aren't you know, doing much out like touchdowns

1105
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: are still but tight ends have to rely on to

1106
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 1: to really hit their ceilings. And green Bay good matchup

1107
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 1: for tight ends twenty six in DVA against the position

1108
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 1: according to FTN last week. And obviously you know Dak

1109
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 1: throws for over four hundred yards, so take it with

1110
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: a grain of salt. But green Bay allowed eleven catches

1111
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 1: for one hundred yards on fifteen targets to tight ends

1112
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 1: with those three Jake Ferguson touchdowns, So that's a twenty

1113
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 1: five percent target market share to tight ends and Kittle,

1114
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 1: you know, for the Niners, I mean probably getting every

1115
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 1: single tight end target. You know, Charlie Werner if he

1116
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 1: gets a target. I mean that that would that would

1117
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 1: be surprising. So Kittle's in a good spot here too.

1118
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 1: And again it's Green Bay team makes sense. They do

1119
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 1: play more zone than than most under Joe Barry, and

1120
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 1: tight ends usually have more success against zone. So you know,

1121
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:50,480
Speaker 1: if if the weather is kind of impacting a downfield

1122
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: passing game, I would like this even more. But I

1123
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 1: think this is a good potential blow up spot for Kittle.

1124
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 1: All right, who are you low on?

1125
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 2: I'm low on Tucker Kraft. He's my tight end eight

1126
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:03,919
Speaker 2: right now. But as predicted, you know, we were trying

1127
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: to figure out what the splits would be with Musgrave

1128
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 2: and Craft this weekend. It was pretty much dead on

1129
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 2: you know Musgrave's. Musgraves playing time increased in a second

1130
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 2: game back from his injury at the expensive Craft obviously,

1131
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 2: but it was more of a you know, thirty five

1132
00:59:20,240 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 2: sixty five split, and I would not be shocked if

1133
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:25,800
Speaker 2: it keeps trending towards more of a fifty to fifty split.

1134
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 2: So I don't think we've seen you know, Craft's slip

1135
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 2: and playing time stop quite yet. And this is a

1136
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 2: tougher matchup against the Niners defense that does rank fourth

1137
00:59:35,040 --> 00:59:38,959
Speaker 2: in DBA against tight ends. Plus, you know, we've talked

1138
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 2: about the improved health of the Green Bays wide receiver

1139
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 2: depth chart. Even just the emergence of a guy like

1140
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:48,960
Speaker 2: Bo Melton could also just start shipping away at you know,

1141
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 2: Craft and Musgraves target share in general. So Kraft is

1142
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 2: the guy that I've been riding, you know, the past

1143
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,640
Speaker 2: few weeks now, but right now I think he's definitely

1144
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 2: on the downward angle. And you know, musk could make

1145
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 2: it more of a fifty to fifty split as soon

1146
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 2: as this week.

1147
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have it turning. I still have Craft about

1148
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 1: like sixty, like around sixty forty ish over Musgrave, but uh,

1149
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 1: you know, Musgrave is trending up. And also, you know,

1150
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 1: it was interesting because last week and it was just

1151
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 1: such a small sample of pass uh, you know, pass

1152
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:22,000
Speaker 1: attempts designed passplays that it's tough to get to read

1153
01:00:22,080 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 1: because like Craft actually played on eighty six percent of

1154
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 1: the pass snaps, which is right, the same thing he

1155
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 1: was doing this whole time. Musgrave was out but a

1156
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 1: route and only sixty seven percent, So he blocked on

1157
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 1: you know, about a quarter of his snap this time around. Uh,

1158
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 1: in the passing game, which where Musgrave didn't block at all,

1159
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:45,080
Speaker 1: so that also kind of contributed to the split going down,

1160
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 1: But I do agree. I also, you know, notice that

1161
01:00:48,600 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 1: Craft is a lot more involved on you know, early

1162
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:56,400
Speaker 1: downs when the team is is ahead, where his Musgrave

1163
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 1: gets more of his targets when the team is you know, trailing,

1164
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 1: and and I think you know, going into San Francisco

1165
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 1: as close to a double digit underdog, that might favor Musgrave.

1166
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 1: Like if they if the team you know, gets behind

1167
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 1: by two scores and they're just in hurry up throw mode,

1168
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 1: I think you'd see a little more musk Grave then

1169
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 1: you do Craft. But you mentioned it. It's a tough

1170
01:01:15,600 --> 01:01:19,160
Speaker 1: matchup regardless. I mean, I always look out for Titan,

1171
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: especially these young tight ends, you know, going up against

1172
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 1: Fred Warner and at San Francisco linebackers like just really

1173
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 1: not not not a matchup I want parts of you know,

1174
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,600
Speaker 1: I know, you know, could get could have some success

1175
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 1: if you get into a garbage time if they're playing

1176
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 1: prevent or something like that. But Drake Greenlaw and Fred

1177
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 1: Warner just not a matchup I want my tight ends

1178
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 1: going up against Burks has been good in coverage as

1179
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 1: well or in Burks so I mean, all three San

1180
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 1: Francisco linebackers excellent in coverage. If they're in base, they

1181
01:01:54,800 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 1: probably won't be in base. But uh, you know, Gibson

1182
01:01:58,040 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 1: is good if he has to guard him. They just

1183
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 1: have a lot of options to take away tight ends,

1184
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 1: so probably gonna see a little more. I mean, their

1185
01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:09,480
Speaker 1: corners are good too, so maybe you see more dumbpluffs

1186
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:11,840
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones, who knows, But it's it's just a tough

1187
01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: matchup for the tight ends, and they're you know, it's hard.

1188
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 1: They're gonna cannibalize each other. So I think at this

1189
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 1: point Musgrave is trending up, craft trending down. So I

1190
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:26,360
Speaker 1: agree with you on that one. I'm just gonna I

1191
01:02:26,520 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 1: just mentioned, uh not really, I would be well on

1192
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 1: him if obviously Andrew's plays, but Isaiah Likely you know

1193
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: right now, but he's also it's most tight ends good

1194
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 1: against zone coverage, not as good against man. But Likely's

1195
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 1: so talented that he's actually averaging over two yards a

1196
01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:49,480
Speaker 1: route against man coverage this year, but just one point

1197
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 1: three against zone. So you know, even if Andrews sits out,

1198
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 1: it's not a great matchup for Likely. They're also favorite,

1199
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:01,640
Speaker 1: so maybe they don't quite as much. I do think

1200
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 1: they'll come out with a pass every game plan, but

1201
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:08,040
Speaker 1: just doesn't likely. It's not really I would think anyway,

1202
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 1: it's gonna be at the top of the target total pot.

1203
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:13,000
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna look for Zay Flowers. I think

1204
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 1: Odell can have some advantages here Bateman as well, so

1205
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 1: likely might be like the third or fourth option. And

1206
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 1: then if Andrews comes back, likely average only seventeen percent

1207
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 1: route participation with Andrews healthy. I don't think Andrews would

1208
01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:31,880
Speaker 1: return to a full compliment of snaps as I mentioned,

1209
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:33,400
Speaker 1: but it just it's.

1210
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:35,240
Speaker 2: Kind of another Craft mus Grave situation.

1211
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:38,919
Speaker 1: We just really don't know, and that's you know, likely

1212
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 1: would be overpriced in DFS anyway you look at it,

1213
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:46,479
Speaker 1: because he's still being priced as a starter, so that's

1214
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 1: just something to monitor. But if if Andrews is in,

1215
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 1: I still I still don't love likely because I think,

1216
01:03:52,720 --> 01:03:55,120
Speaker 1: you know, if Andrews gets ruled out, then I think everybody, oh, well,

1217
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:57,240
Speaker 1: likely's an option now, and you know, he'll probably be

1218
01:03:57,280 --> 01:04:01,880
Speaker 1: a little bit over overly pop in the market, so

1219
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: probably fading like we either way. But it's like I

1220
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 1: just wanted to kind of mention that with Andrews potentially returning,

1221
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:13,040
Speaker 1: All right, what are you doing for the tight end prop?

1222
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: Obviously I'm going with Mark Andrews prop. I think it's

1223
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:19,560
Speaker 2: important just to talk through if he does suit up

1224
01:04:20,040 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 2: kind of where we project him. He's one of the

1225
01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 2: few players that doesn't have a market yet, so he

1226
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:28,960
Speaker 2: need helped sharpen my projection. And you know we mentioned

1227
01:04:28,960 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 2: a lot of times I you know, my prop guy

1228
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:34,440
Speaker 2: ends up sitting out. This is why because I'm usually

1229
01:04:34,440 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 2: throwing out a player. But I think you've been hinting

1230
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 2: that you're low on him. I might be lower.

1231
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:41,360
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1232
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 2: So my projection as of now is thirty eight and

1233
01:04:46,920 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards. Are you going over under that?

1234
01:04:49,960 --> 01:04:53,400
Speaker 1: See? That is a that's a great line. I am

1235
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:55,880
Speaker 1: a little bit under that. I'm more like thirty seven.

1236
01:04:56,120 --> 01:05:02,720
Speaker 1: So yeahah one yard yeah, not nothing, nothing crazy, But

1237
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 1: I do I do think it'll be more of like

1238
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 1: a split snap situation. And because you have this large spread,

1239
01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 1: that just creates more uncertainty as far as pass volume.

1240
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:15,960
Speaker 1: I think for Baltimore, like I think they're gonna come

1241
01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 1: out pass heavy, but I mean, obviously I could be wrong.

1242
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 1: They've been a run heavy team for most of you know,

1243
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson's career, but also uh, you know they could

1244
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:29,120
Speaker 1: come out past heavy, get a lead, and then you know,

1245
01:05:29,200 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 1: put Andrews in bubble wrap for the AFC Championship game.

1246
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 1: So just too many things. I think floor wise point

1247
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:40,600
Speaker 1: you know, pointing to the floor, whereas you know, not

1248
01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:44,080
Speaker 1: as much pointing to the like ceiling. So I think

1249
01:05:44,120 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 1: I think he's more likely h his floor than ceiling

1250
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 1: in his first game back if he plays. So yeah,

1251
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:48,640
Speaker 1: I'll go into that.

1252
01:05:49,240 --> 01:05:52,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, both of our productions will change if we get

1253
01:05:52,360 --> 01:05:55,040
Speaker 2: more news, Like we might get way more clarity on

1254
01:05:55,080 --> 01:05:57,440
Speaker 2: this than we have right now. So this is a

1255
01:05:57,520 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 2: production of monitor where both of our projection and could

1256
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 2: go up or down quite a bit.

1257
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:05,280
Speaker 1: Right exactly, Yeah, he might. I might bump him like

1258
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,760
Speaker 1: a maybe over forty if like he's definitely in, But

1259
01:06:08,960 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 1: I'm not really I'm not. I'm not going higher than

1260
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:14,720
Speaker 1: like I'm at three catches right now. I'm probably not

1261
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 1: going higher than three and a half either way. I

1262
01:06:16,720 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 1: think that would kind of be the right the right

1263
01:06:19,520 --> 01:06:22,720
Speaker 1: line there, So maybe like a sixty forty sixty, you know,

1264
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:26,000
Speaker 1: something like that split with with Isaiah likely all right,

1265
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 1: that is going to do it for our Divisional week

1266
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: NFL Players Projection episode of the Action Network Podcast presented

1267
01:06:32,920 --> 01:06:36,240
Speaker 1: by bet MGM, the King of Sportsbooks. For more great

1268
01:06:36,240 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 1: fantasy content from Sean and I, be sure to check

1269
01:06:38,560 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 1: out our full Fantasy Preview episode out right now over

1270
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Flex podcast channel. And of course, if

1271
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 1: you're into betting, my weekly betting preview episode is out

1272
01:06:48,520 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 1: with Stucky as well Best Bets episode on this channel

1273
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:56,760
Speaker 1: with Brandon Anderson. You can visit Action Network dot com

1274
01:06:56,800 --> 01:06:59,840
Speaker 1: for all of our NFL fantasy and betting content as

1275
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