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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: But this one is good. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: We're throwing in job speak.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting.

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Speaker 2: It's a catch touchtop.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabai you want to pass.

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Speaker 2: And we are under way.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Brandon

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Speaker 1: Anderson here with Raheem Palmer. Getting you're ready for week

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Speaker 1: thirteen Action with another strong side Friday's episode. We missed

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Speaker 1: a guy's last Friday offer that Thanksgiving holiday. We are

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Speaker 1: back to run through some of the top games of

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Speaker 1: the week this week. Not a lot of top games

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Speaker 1: this week, kind of a weird sleigh.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of everhem, I think the biggest

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Speaker 2: thing to to see right now is that there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of heavy favorite partals, Bears quotes, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos.

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Speaker 2: So we're just trying to get to the best games

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Speaker 2: this week, the most entertaining games, and hopefully give you

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Speaker 2: some information which to help me make some money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah for sure. So like usual, we're gonna hit our

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Speaker 1: what we think are the top three games for Sunday

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Speaker 1: and do matchups, analysis, betting angles, the whole works, and

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Speaker 1: then we will get to our best bets for week

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Speaker 1: thirteen and then hit the look ahead for next Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the app, of course, and make

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Speaker 1: sure to subscribe to the podcast as all is odds

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Speaker 1: are from BETMGM. Let's get down to business and talk

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Speaker 1: about our games of the week.

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Speaker 2: Let's get down. Let's get down to business. So let's

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Speaker 2: get down. Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 4: Let's get so.

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Speaker 1: Of course, just so, as mentioned, the real game of

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Speaker 1: the week this week comes Monday night. That's New England

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Speaker 1: in Buffalo Patriots Bills. We will cover that one. We

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Speaker 1: did cover a little bit already, so check the Monday podcast.

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Speaker 1: Both Raheem and I took New England on the hot Read.

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Speaker 1: We'll cover that one on the future Monday podcast that's

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Speaker 1: coming to you that we will record Sunday night and

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Speaker 1: give you a whole breakdown of that one. So that

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Speaker 1: one is coming today. We're gonna start out with the

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Speaker 1: Chargers and the Bengals. So in that early Sunday window, Rahem,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned lots of big favorites this week. I think

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Speaker 1: there are five touchdown or more favorites in that early window.

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Speaker 1: This really is the one close, unpredictable perhaps game in

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Speaker 1: that window. So right now Bengals favored by three at home,

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Speaker 1: basically the standard home line in there. So my first

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Speaker 1: question for you on this one, which of these two

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Speaker 1: teams would you rather face in the playoffs right now?

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Speaker 1: If you're a playoff team, and I know matchups and everything,

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Speaker 1: but just generally speaking, which opponent here scares you more?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: This is really, really, really tough. I think when you

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Speaker 2: look at these two teams, the Chargers have the better offense,

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Speaker 2: but their defense is so bad that when you look

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Speaker 2: at the Chargers, they're twenty third in defensive DVO away

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Speaker 2: they could run on they has some injuries. Whereas I

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Speaker 2: think in the playoffs, you're facing the Bengals team which

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Speaker 2: has a little better defense. You're not just gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to just run the ball over the Bengals the

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Speaker 2: way teams have been doing against the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: So I would rather face the Chargers. Yeah, that's interesting.

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Speaker 1: It probably depends, of course, on who you are. To me,

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Speaker 1: I think it's a variant sort of thing. The Bengals,

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Speaker 1: I think have a safer floor. We've seen the bottom

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Speaker 1: really drop out on the Chargers, especially in the recent weeks,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think the Bengals can match the ceiling

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Speaker 1: of the Chargers. The Chargers, if they play their best,

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Speaker 1: especially if the offense is playing their best, are still

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Speaker 1: maybe as scary as any team in the AFC. Like,

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Speaker 1: if they come out and play their best ball, they

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Speaker 1: can just beat you straight up no matter how well

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Speaker 1: you're playing. I don't know if I think that about

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. I think I don't think that about the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: And the Bengals can come out and play tough and

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Speaker 1: make you fight for it, but the Chargers could just

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Speaker 1: straight up beat you. And so that's informing how I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at this game a little bit, because what I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering here, So Bengals by three. It was three and

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Speaker 1: a half earlier this week when I wrote about this one,

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Speaker 1: So I took Chargers then at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Are we sure the right team is favored here? Should

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Speaker 1: the Bengals definitely be favored? Are they the better team?

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Speaker 2: I think you will. You have to make the Bengals

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Speaker 2: favorite at home. I just don't think that they should

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Speaker 2: be favored by three and a half. When you look

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Speaker 2: at the look ahead game look ahead line for this game,

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Speaker 2: it was Bengals minus win and a half. So I

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Speaker 2: think the value lies on the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the line is getting inflated a little

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Speaker 1: bit by some recency bias. I think you probably agree

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Speaker 1: with that. So last week, of course, the Bengals destroyed

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Speaker 1: the Steelers forty one to ten. Is in the week

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Speaker 1: before they crushed the Raiders thirty two to thirteen. So

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Speaker 1: right now it's all in on the Bengals and the

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Speaker 1: Chargers law in Denver and weren't really super competitive, So

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Speaker 1: everything leans momentum wise for the Bengals. But momentum isn't

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Speaker 1: necessarily a thing, and certainly not from week to week.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals right before those two big wins lost forty

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Speaker 1: one to sixteen to the Browns, their worst game of

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Speaker 1: the season. The game before that they lost to the Jets,

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Speaker 1: who are not good. So it just to me if

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Speaker 1: this game was two weeks ago, well what the line

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Speaker 1: have been. I think very different Because we're feeling good

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Speaker 1: about the Chargers. We're not really sure if the Bengals

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Speaker 1: or even a playoff team suddenly now we get a

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Speaker 1: couple of these results, and I think the line moves

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Speaker 1: and gives a lot of value here. Do you agree

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Speaker 1: that there's some recency buyas kind of playing to the

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Speaker 1: line here.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, without a doubt. When you look at the

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Speaker 2: fact that, like you said before, they gave him thirty

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Speaker 2: four points to the Jets and Mike White and lost outrun.

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Speaker 2: They gave him forty one points to the Browns. The

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Speaker 2: Browns haven't been able to score since they put up

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Speaker 2: ten points on this band Baltimore Deepense, So there's plenty

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Speaker 2: of biascare. And then I think when you actually dig

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Speaker 2: into the match, like really dig into it. Justin Herbert

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Speaker 2: struggled last week against the Broncos team which blitz is heavily.

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Speaker 2: This is not something that the Bengals do. The Bengals

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Speaker 2: don't blitz time. So I think this is a matchup

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Speaker 2: with Justin Herbert can thrive, and he can get the

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Speaker 2: ball to Mike Williams, and he can get the ball

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Speaker 2: to Keenan Allen. You look at the Bengals, there's sixteenth

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Speaker 2: in Football Outsiders Defensive DBA, but they played the twenty

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Speaker 2: seventh ranks schedule of opposing offense. So they haven't played

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Speaker 2: too many offenses that were really as good as this

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Speaker 2: discharges offense. So I think this is a step up

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Speaker 2: in competition. Like I said before, look aheadline was one

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Speaker 2: and a half. Now you get plus three the values

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Speaker 2: on the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, it's easy. If you watched last week

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Speaker 1: or you saw the highlights, what you saw was a

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Speaker 1: big fan against the Bengals, just constantly under pressure, like

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Speaker 1: dude is just getting hit on every single play, and

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Speaker 1: so it's easy to see that and be like, oh man,

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Speaker 1: the Bengals their defense, they're really coming at it and

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Speaker 1: they're going to make life hard for Herbert. You know,

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Speaker 1: won't be easy, but the secondary has been beatable. And

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Speaker 1: let's just be honest, justin Herbert, not Big Ben, like

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Speaker 1: that dude's a statue back there, or big Ben is.

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Speaker 1: Herbert can move around, Herbert can create kind of go

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Speaker 1: do his thing and get out of the pocket and

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Speaker 1: make them space by a little time, all things that

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Speaker 1: Big Ben doesn't do anymore. I guess ironic that Big

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Speaker 1: Ben doesn't have time at this point. But the Chargers offense,

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Speaker 1: like you talk about DVA. We talked about DVA a

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Speaker 1: lot because it's a way to take scheduling into account

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Speaker 1: and opponent's strength into account. Right now, Los Angeles is

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Speaker 1: the number two DVA offense in the entire league. If

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Speaker 1: someone told us that a couple of weeks ago, you'd

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Speaker 1: be like, oh, yeah, of course the Rams are the

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Speaker 1: number two offense. No, no, not the other Los Angeles

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Speaker 1: to the Chargers, and it is. It is giving them

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Speaker 1: a little too much credit. They're pretty far behind number one,

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Speaker 1: who is Tampa. You're actually closer to number sixteen and

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Speaker 1: off than to number one. But even so, the offense

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Speaker 1: is good their top ten and passing and running. Herbert

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Speaker 1: is good and can make some plays, and the Chargers

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Speaker 1: pass blocking has been to really improve this year too,

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Speaker 1: So I agree. I like the Chargers here. The one

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Speaker 1: thing that does give me some concern. Do you worry

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Speaker 1: that Joe Mixon could just run on this team and

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Speaker 1: just control the clock and get kind of a little

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Speaker 1: bit what we saw last week where the Chargers aren't

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Speaker 1: in it because Mixon's running all over a team.

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Speaker 2: A lot of last week was justin Herbert struggled, and

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Speaker 2: you know, this team only had ten points midway through

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Speaker 2: the third quarter. So I think it's going to come

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Speaker 2: down to the Chargers' offense, like that's that's how you

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Speaker 2: mentioned it earlier. The Chargers have a higher ceiling and

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Speaker 2: it's because Justin Herbert. So, if the Chargers can score

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Speaker 2: points that we think they will be, they're going to

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Speaker 2: cover and possibly win this game. If they don't, then

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Speaker 2: you're gonna have a situation where the Bengals go his

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Speaker 2: team out and they're running the ball down their throat.

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Speaker 2: So it's a passingly at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: if you've got to be bad in one area, you'd

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Speaker 2: rather beat them be bad at running.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I totally agree. We're on the same side

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Speaker 1: of this one. One other trend to note something we've

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Speaker 1: talked a lot about all season long short road dogs

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Speaker 1: this season, so a touchdown or less fifty three and

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Speaker 1: twenty two against the spread, seventy one percent cover rate.

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Speaker 1: That is a huge, huge trend in our favor. Short

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Speaker 1: road dogs are forty two and thirty two straight up.

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Speaker 1: So if you play the money line here, that trend

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Speaker 1: has been fifty five percent ROI on the season.

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Speaker 4: I like the.

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Speaker 1: Chargers, You like the Chargers. I'm gonna play the money line.

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Speaker 1: Are you playing money line? Too, or just sticking with

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Speaker 1: a spread.

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Speaker 2: I'm just sticking with the spread. I actually put it

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Speaker 2: in my contest, so I'll be playing plus three and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: All right. So we agree on the Chargers one underdog.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to another underdog spot here, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: I love this game historically. I love this game. I

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Speaker 1: love this rivalry. This is like black and blue football,

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Speaker 1: smash mouth in the face, hit me back, like keep

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Speaker 1: punching and see whose staggers. First. We know how this

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Speaker 1: rivalry has gone over the ears is seems like whatever

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Speaker 1: is the case, it allays feels close. So that makes

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Speaker 1: me immediately see this line Baltimore on the road giving

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Speaker 1: four and a half points, and think, man, this line

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Speaker 1: feels a little high. But we just talked about Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: They got crushed by the Bengals last week. So my

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Speaker 1: first question is we're you know, you and I into

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Speaker 1: the season, we really dumped on Pittsburgh. We had a

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Speaker 1: lot of Steelers slander on our preseason takes. Were we

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Speaker 1: right all along and got kind of duped into thinking

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Speaker 1: that they were hanging around? Or do you think there's

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Speaker 1: some fight left for the Steelers?

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Speaker 2: I think there's some fight left. I think when you

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Speaker 2: look at the Steelers, they struggle with the Bengals all like,

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Speaker 2: sometimes the team just has your number. That doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 2: make you a bad team. Now, I don't think anybody,

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Speaker 2: any of we definitely didn't think the Stewers were going

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Speaker 2: to be a great team coming into this year. Like

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Speaker 2: what they beat Buffalo. Obviously they lost in the Raiders,

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Speaker 2: who's very underrated, but tourre losses to come against the

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Speaker 2: Bengals and this is the Bengals team, which I mean,

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Speaker 2: they look like they're headed for the playoffs. There's a

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Speaker 2: lot of parody this year in the league, and to me,

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Speaker 2: when you look at this matchup, it's more about Baltimore

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Speaker 2: than it is Pittsburgh. Baltimore is just as average as Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: Like Baltimore, to me, they're the most fraudulently eight and

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Speaker 2: threeteen that we've seen in recent memory, despite being their

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Speaker 2: first in the AFC. But they have a point differential

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Speaker 2: of plus twenty three, which is seven behind the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: the Bills, the Bengals, the Coats, the Broncos, and the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: and they have a Potaggora expectation of just six wins.

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Speaker 2: So this eight and three team is playing like a

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Speaker 2: six win team. They're basically floating on the knights. They

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Speaker 2: need to comeback wins to defeat the Chiefs, the Lions,

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Speaker 2: the Coats, the Vikings, and the Bears. So I think

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Speaker 2: when you look at this game, this is gonna be

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Speaker 2: a classic Steelers versus Ravens game. Whoever wins this game

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Speaker 2: probably gonna win by three. And with the still was

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Speaker 2: getting embarrassed last week, I think this is a good

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Speaker 2: bounce back spot for them. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I agree if you look at the history between

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Speaker 1: these teams we talked about a little bit, So of

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Speaker 1: the last twelve matchups between the Ravens and Steelers, eight

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Speaker 1: games have been down to one score the last during

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Speaker 1: that stretch, six of them in Pittsburgh, five one score games.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore only had one win in that stretch over the

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Speaker 1: last six years by more than three. So enough to

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Speaker 1: actually cover this, you know, I listened on our podcast

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Speaker 1: on the Wednesday night Thursday episode from the six Pack.

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Speaker 1: Stuckey had a great stat on here since John Harby

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Speaker 1: arrived in Baltimore, favorites of either one in this rivalry.

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Speaker 1: So Pittsburgh or Baltimore if they're favored by three or more.

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Speaker 1: Favorites are one thirteen and two against the spread. You

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Speaker 1: just don't win by more than a field goal in

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Speaker 1: this rivalry. So I think that the line is too high,

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Speaker 1: and I agree the Ravens just don't seem super impressive.

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Speaker 1: Like we know that the Steelers' offense is not looking

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Speaker 1: at the Steelers really aren't good at anything. Let's be honest,

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Speaker 1: the Steelers. If you look at their dvaway, you can

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Speaker 1: look at run attack, passing attack, run defense, passing defense

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Speaker 1: bottom ten in all four of them. This is not

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Speaker 1: a bet on the Steelers necessarily, but it is Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: at home where they're good, where they've been good, underdog spot.

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Speaker 1: And the thing is that Baltimore's isn't much better. Like

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Speaker 1: we knew that Pittsburgh's offensive line would be a big problem,

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Speaker 1: it has been. I think Baltimore's offensive line is a

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Speaker 1: big problem in this game. Their line has not been

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Speaker 1: much better than Pittsburgh. It's bottom five almost in a

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Speaker 1: lot of the metrics if you look at it, and

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Speaker 1: they're especially bad against pass blocking. Well, what's the one

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Speaker 1: thing Pittsburgh still does well? They rush the passer. They

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Speaker 1: always get after the passer, and so I think that

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Speaker 1: could be a problem in this game. I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be one of those classic ugly raven Steelers

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Speaker 1: hard to come by a point. And you know, when

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Speaker 1: you're looking at like an under and a low scoring

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Speaker 1: game four and a half, it's just a lot of

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Speaker 1: points to cover.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean without a doubt. And I think

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Speaker 2: the biggest thing is the Ravens have struggled on defense

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Speaker 2: this year. They're twenty if it dropped back EPA to

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Speaker 2: play and they're dead last and explosive play rate on defense.

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Speaker 2: So I actually think this is a game at which

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Speaker 2: the Steelers can put up good off and look, all

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Speaker 2: Ben has to do is get the ball out quick.

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Speaker 2: He gets the ball out court to Deontay Johnson and

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Speaker 2: Chase Claypool, and I think they can make some big

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Speaker 2: plays with yards answer their catch. And I think this

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Speaker 2: Ravens defense can really be beat. And obviously you look

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Speaker 2: at their offense. The offense is completely fell off a cliff.

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Speaker 2: This team can't run the ball, and outside of Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 2: this team can't run the ball period. And you look

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Speaker 2: at the last three games, and I know Lamar didn't

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Speaker 2: play for one of them, but they scored ten points,

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Speaker 2: sixteen points, and sixteen points against the Dolphins, Bears in

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Speaker 2: the Browns the last three weeks, and then this team

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Speaker 2: all year long. They've struggled with getting off to the

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Speaker 2: hot starts. They're just twentyth and first half points per game,

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Speaker 2: ten point three points per game in the first half

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Speaker 2: of these games, and that's why they have to come

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Speaker 2: back and Look, the big trend in this game is

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Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin. As an underdog forty two, twenty one and

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Speaker 2: two sixty seven percent against the spread. As a home dog,

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Speaker 2: he's twelve three and two eighty percent against the spread.

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Speaker 2: This is a positive expected value wager. I know there's

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Speaker 2: spend some money on the Ravens pushing this line to

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Speaker 2: four and a half, but I'm all over the Stills here.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking them at plus four and a half and

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Speaker 2: I'm taking them in the contest at plus three and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I'm on those Tomlin trends as well

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Speaker 1: as a home dog. The Tomlin and the Steelers have

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Speaker 1: covered six times in a row, so definitely that's been

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Speaker 1: going well. Even as a big Ben has kind of

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Speaker 1: fallen off a cliff. Well, that's being factored into the line,

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Speaker 1: so that's already that's why this line is so high.

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Speaker 1: Otherwise it certainly wouldn't be the Baltimore is playing. And

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Speaker 1: I'm on the money line too. Tomlin as a money

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Speaker 1: line underdog thirty four and thirty one, so he's got

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Speaker 1: a winning record as an underdog. Thirty two percent ROI

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Speaker 1: this year as an underdog. Steelers are three and three

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Speaker 1: and another. You're thinking like, oh, well, that's not that exciting. No,

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Speaker 1: it is. Because it's an underdog. We're getting plus juice

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Speaker 1: on it. So thirty nine percent ROI this year on

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Speaker 1: the money line. So I know. I took Pittsburgh last week.

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Speaker 1: It did not go well for me. It was a

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Speaker 1: very bad pick. Cincinnati destroyed them. You've got to have

333
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Speaker 1: a short memory as a better you can't be looking

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Speaker 1: at last week and being like, oh man, Pittsburgh burned me.

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Speaker 1: I'm out.

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Speaker 2: I can't do it.

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Speaker 1: I can't bet them again. The books know that, Like,

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Speaker 1: that's exactly what all of us are thinking. Nobody wants

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Speaker 1: to play Pittsburgh right now. That's why we have to

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Speaker 1: play them in the spot. So I'm on the four

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Speaker 1: and a half. I'm on the money line plus one

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Speaker 1: eight a m. Seeing out there, I'm assuming you are

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Speaker 1: again on the spread, but not the money line here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and before we move on, I think it's important

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Speaker 2: to note that Joe Hayen we back for this game,

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Speaker 2: and he's just you know, he's bigfer than that corner.

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Speaker 1: TJ.

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Speaker 2: White might not play, but I still think this is

349
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Speaker 2: a good spot for the Stills. I think the market

350
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Speaker 2: is really overvaluing the Baltimore Ravens. It's only so well.

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Speaker 2: I say this every week, jay Z. Like jay Z

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Speaker 2: said in the takeover, it's only so long fake does

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Speaker 2: to pretend the Ravens are a faked We're gonna take it.

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Speaker 2: We can run with Stewarts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this this just feels like a week I took

356
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Speaker 1: a lot of underdogs in my picks. It feels like

357
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Speaker 1: one of those weeks where things kind of balance out.

358
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Speaker 1: We've got a lot of these big favorites that look

359
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Speaker 1: like they're a little bit overrated, and it feels like

360
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Speaker 1: a spot where we're gonna even out some of these

361
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Speaker 1: records that were waiting on all year. So one more

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Speaker 1: spot where I think that could happen is our other

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Speaker 1: big afternoon game San Francisco in Seattle. San Francisco is

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Speaker 1: giving three and a half points on the road to

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So we all watched Seattle Monday night. Was

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Speaker 1: is that the end? You look at the playoff pick,

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Speaker 1: they put the graphic on the screen. We got fourteen

368
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Speaker 1: NFC teams in the playoff picture. The only two that

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Speaker 1: are not are the loebegone Detroit Lions, who haven't won

370
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Speaker 1: a game, and the Seattle Seahawks at three and eight

371
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Speaker 1: if they're the one team with the Lions hanging out

372
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Speaker 1: at the kids table. So it was Monday night the

373
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Speaker 1: end for Seattle? Is this the end for Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: or do you think they still have any fight left

375
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Speaker 1: in them?

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Speaker 2: It's tough to say a team with Russell Wilson that

377
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Speaker 2: it's not going to have any fight in them. But

378
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 2: he looks bad right now and like he's missing throws

379
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 2: all over the place. He's twenty eighth in success rate,

380
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:39,159
Speaker 2: he's twenty second in EPA for play completion over expectation.

381
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Speaker 2: He's just really struggling right now. This is not Russell

382
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Speaker 2: Wilson out there. DK metcalf Is. You know he's had

383
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,879
Speaker 2: some issues with this team right now, and then the

384
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Speaker 2: defense is bad, so I don't want to say this

385
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Speaker 2: is the end. I actually think there might be some

386
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Speaker 2: value on the Seahawks this week. I think you take

387
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Speaker 2: to the Seahawks. What's your thoughts on this game?

388
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I again another underdog spot. I like because San

389
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Speaker 1: Francisco is playing really well. I actually like San fran

390
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 1: I will come back to them on the look ahead

391
00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 1: in fact, but that doesn't mean you take them every

392
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Speaker 1: week and you can win this game, perhaps even without covering.

393
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Speaker 1: So you've got to make the distinction there. Russell Wilson

394
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Speaker 1: twenty four to twelve and two against the spresent underdog

395
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,239
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent cover rate. We know Seattle is tough

396
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 1: at home. DK metcalf has been really good against the

397
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 1: Niners too, and their pass defense has not been great.

398
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 1: They actually have allowed the third most yards to wide

399
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 1: receiver one, So I think it could be a big

400
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 1: DK game. Possible prop there if you want to play it.

401
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 1: San Francisco too as well as they're playing, and they've

402
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 1: been like I think the number one EPA offense or

403
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 1: the last month or so. That's because they finally got healthy.

404
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,880
Speaker 1: They got Trent Williams back, who is probably the best

405
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: offensive line in the league, maybe one of the best

406
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: non quarterbacks in the entire NFL. They got George kittleback,

407
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 1: all that's great, but now they lost Deebo Samuel and

408
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: that's a huge deal. Sattle's run defense is kind of solid,

409
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 1: their pass defense to where you beat them, and Deebo

410
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: has been the big weapon that could really hurt them.

411
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 1: San Fran lost Fred Warner too. It's a big loss

412
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 1: on defense, especially with Russell Wilson's ability to kind of

413
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 1: scramble and create. So this is a spot I think

414
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 1: where San Fran has all the momentum right now, they've

415
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Speaker 1: got all the wins. But if you look at a

416
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Speaker 1: trend teams on a three game losing streak like Seattle,

417
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 1: when they play a team on a two or three

418
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 1: game winning streak, we know that line's going to be inflated.

419
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: Here's what happens those teams on the losing streak fifty

420
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 1: nine to thirty two and two against the spread, they're

421
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Speaker 1: covering sixty five percent of the time. That's a huge number.

422
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 1: Two thirds of the time they're covering. They've covered seven straight.

423
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Speaker 1: They're two to zero this year in a league of parody.

424
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Speaker 1: This is a parody spot where you say, look, Seattle

425
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,959
Speaker 1: is down and out, but this is the season Russell

426
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 1: Wilson's going to play with pride. I think he's he's

427
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 1: clearly not great, but it's getting a little better. That

428
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: throwing was a little better last week. I think Seattle

429
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: just does enough here to be able to hang around

430
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 1: and have some value here.

431
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 2: You know, I initially grabbed the two and a half

432
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 2: with the with the forty nine ers as I was

433
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 2: watching the game against the Washington football team, But I

434
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 2: think the fort nineers are dealing with some injuries. Obviously

435
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 2: you got Fred Warner out, you got Drake greenloll out,

436
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 2: Deebo Stanmiuel with who you mentioned. That's a big loss

437
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 2: for this team. So I'm probably gonna buy back on

438
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 2: my position and grab the Seahawks at plus three and

439
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 2: a half and just hope that it lands in the

440
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: middle somewhere. But I really don't want much to do

441
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 2: with this game. With the way Russell Wilson is playing

442
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: right now, He's just not accurate right now. The Seahawks

443
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: defense really isn't good right now. But on the other

444
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 2: side of the ball, the Fortnights are playing so well.

445
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 2: I just don't know how you fade this team. But

446
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 2: when you look at the trends, the Seahals have really

447
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 2: dominated this team in recent They're fourteen to five and

448
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 2: one the last twenty matchups against the spread. And I

449
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 2: mean this could be matchup where Pete Carroll and Russell

450
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: Wilson could get it done. They're just, yeah, a veteran quarterback,

451
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: You're never gonna expect them to compute. We give up.

452
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 1: So, yeah, you said I don't know how you fade

453
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. Right now I got your answer

454
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 1: for you. Ready. It's Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan is a favorite.

455
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 1: It's how you fade the forty nine ers.

456
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 4: We know this.

457
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 1: We've talked with the numbers a lot of times. Shanahan

458
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 1: is two and seven straight up against Pete Carroll, so

459
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 1: we know it's not a good matchup. Including one in

460
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: two as a favorite, Kyle Shanahan eleven twenty two and

461
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: a one against the spread as a favorite, that is

462
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 1: abysmal thirty three percent cover rate. Oh wait, it gets

463
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: worse as a road favorite. Kyle Shanahan four fifteen and

464
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: one as a road favorite. Against the spread twenty one

465
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 1: percent cover rate. The forty nine ers as road favorites,

466
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 1: had failed to cover nine straight times until they did

467
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: it in Minnesota last week. So it's a bad spot

468
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: for Kyle Shanahan. It's just as a favorite not getting

469
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 1: the job done. Money lines against Shanahan the last two

470
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: years sixty nine percent ROI. So you want to bet

471
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 1: against Shanahan in the spot like you said, all three

472
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: of these games, I think if the line was a

473
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: little lower, it feels like a minus two or two

474
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: and a half, I'd be very tempted to just ride

475
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 1: the better team. But when we're getting above the key number,

476
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: we're getting a little too much value here. We gotta

477
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: like the underdog. So I'm on sale three and a

478
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 1: half again. I'm gonna take the money line, keep going

479
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: with a trend here plus one fifty. In fact, if

480
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: you want, if you want to get aggressive Chargers Ravens

481
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 1: Seahawks money line, parlay plus sixteen to one, so you

482
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: can get sixteen oh one return if all three of

483
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: those come through, I know you're not going to play

484
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 1: that one. If you had to do one money line

485
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 1: out of these three dogs, we liked all the Dogs, Chargers,

486
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 1: Ravens or Seahawks. Which money line? Sorry, Chargers, Steelers or Seahawks?

487
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: Which money line would you play? If you picked one?

488
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 2: I had to play one. We go with the Chargers.

489
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I think I like the Chargers best as well.

490
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 1: But we shall see. All right, let's hear a quick

491
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: word from our sponsor before we make some best bets.

492
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,359
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521
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Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show, all right, Best bets

522
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: for the week again. As allays, We're going to run

523
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: through these quickly. We've already made these picks on our app,

524
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: on the website at actionework dot com on social media.

525
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: So raheem, what is your first bout this week? I

526
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 1: think you gotta teaser on the way for us, y'all.

527
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: I actually have a teaser, but I think I'm gonna

528
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 2: go with my other pick that I like. I like

529
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 2: this other pick I like to Washington football team this week.

530
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: Look the Raiders. They defeated a banged up Cowboys team

531
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 2: in a game where the opponent was flagged fourteen times

532
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty six yards with four pass interference

533
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: penalties against the same guy on third and long. Look,

534
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 2: they they played well against a banged up Cowboys team

535
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: and a Cowboys team which just struggled defensively. But when

536
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: you look at their three games previously the Giants, the Chiefs,

537
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 2: the Bengals, they scored sixteen, fourteen to thirteen points respectively.

538
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 2: Tarrell Heineke is first an EPA to play composite over

539
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: the last four weeks. It Washington football team offense is

540
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: seventh for EPA to play six and success rate Terry

541
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 2: McLaurin and Logan Thomas is gonna get off. I think

542
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: Antonio Gibson should be able to do some things on

543
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 2: the ground, and this Raiders defensive really struggling. They gave

544
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: up forty They gave him twenty three, forty one, thirty

545
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 2: two and thirty three against the Giants, Chiefs, Bankals and

546
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: Cowboys over the last four weeks. This is going to

547
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 2: be a shootout. But look at the fact that there's

548
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: no Darren Waller for the Raiders. That's their big turf.

549
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 2: No Darren Waller. Sean Jackson actually popped up on an

550
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: injury would report. This office has really struggled outside of

551
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: their game against the Cowboys without Henry Rugs a third.

552
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 2: Give me the Washington football team plus three. Take them

553
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 2: on a money line too. That's another dog that I like.

554
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 2: If you want to sprinkle some some money on the over,

555
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 2: you could do that as well.

556
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: It's an underdogs podcast today, and for my pick, I'm

557
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: actually gonna do a trend here more than a pick.

558
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 1: Sticking with the underdog theme, we said favorites this week.

559
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 1: We've got seven games with a team favored by a

560
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: full seven points or more. So let me just throw

561
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: up the caution here. You guys all know I love

562
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: my favorites they've not been kind to me lately. Last

563
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: week was a good week for favorites, but overall, these

564
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: big favorites are not covering. In November, favorites of seven

565
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: or more seven and fifteen against the spread, so failing

566
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 1: to cover sixty nine percent of the time by five

567
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: point two points a game on the money line. Underdogs

568
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: in November nine and thirteen's that's not just underdogs, those

569
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 1: are touchdown underdogs. And four more of those games were

570
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: lost by fueld goal or less, so they could have

571
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: been thirteen and nine. They were that close there. We

572
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: had a few very close losses, some big, big upsets.

573
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: So this is not a best bet per se. This

574
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: is the warning against you getting too confident in a

575
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: best bet on some of these big favorites. Here's the

576
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: favorites this week, to be careful with Rams, Bucks, Chiefs, Colts, Cardinals, Vikings,

577
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: and Eagles all seven or more point favorites. I talked

578
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 1: about a couple of them on the podcast last week.

579
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: But these favorites just aren't showing up, and we're seeing

580
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 1: this year nobody knows who's good and the standings just

581
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: keep compressing more and more. So be careful with those

582
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: favorites out there, be careful teasing them down. Hey, where

583
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: you're getting too close to the money line, we're seeing

584
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: some upsets. So that's my version of it.

585
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 3: Best bout? What's your other best bout? For Week thirteen?

586
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 3: I really like this teaser. Minnesota Vikings pick a Look

587
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 3: the Detroit Lions. They're not gonna win a game this year.

588
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 3: It's unfortunate, but it's just not gonna happen. Deandres Swift

589
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 3: is out. He's the guy that you know you want

590
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 3: to run with. Rykan should be able to win this game.

591
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: And then also New England Patriots. We're gonna tease that

592
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 3: up from plus three up to plus nine.

593
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 2: You want to get this now. I think there's some

594
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 2: plus threes in the market, Edition two and a half

595
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: in the market. The big reason why you want to

596
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: take New England on this teaser is that there's gonna

597
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: be some snow on Monday night. And this total his

598
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: dropped down from forty five to forty three and a half.

599
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: There's some forty threes forty two's in the market. And

600
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 2: we all know that your teaser and your points are

601
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 2: more valuable in a lower scoring gay. Obviously, the Buffalo

602
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: Bills that you can't really run the ball that well,

603
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 2: but the Patriots can't, so this is they're gonna be

604
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 2: able to keep this within the number. I think that

605
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: the Pacers are my favorite teaser leg of this week,

606
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 2: and the Lions go out there and beat me. They

607
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: go out there and beat but I don't see it happy.

608
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know me. I'm a Vikings fan and a

609
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: sports nihilist, so I'm gonna stay away from that just

610
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: because this could be I know, I must have said

611
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: this on every week. This could be that game that

612
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: finally is the last nail in the coffin for Zimmer

613
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 1: if they can't pull it out. It sure looks like

614
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: a game that the Vikings should pass all over Detroit

615
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: and get the job done. But the Vikings haven't really

616
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: done any shows this year very correctly, so I agree

617
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: with you on New England. We both like that. We

618
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: will talk more about that one on the Sunday Night podcast.

619
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: My other best bet, I'm going to the futures play here.

620
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 1: I've done an article that will be coming out at

621
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: Action Network on Friday, checking in on the MVP race.

622
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: You guys know I love the MVP race. I've been

623
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: big on Tom Brady all year. It's been my guy.

624
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: I'm a little worried. Brady's got a tough schedule coming up.

625
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 1: They play the Saints, the Bills, they played twice against

626
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Those are really tough defenses. He's not looked

627
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: quite as good lately. Antonio Brown still missing somehow with

628
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: whatever ankle injury has had. I'm getting a little nervous.

629
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: And we've said all year this MVP race feels just

630
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: wide open, like it feels like you could just almost

631
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: throw out everything we've seen so far and just see

632
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: who gets hot for the last six weeks. So I

633
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: did a little digging and I noticed I think we've

634
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 1: talked about this before. So if you look at EPA

635
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: expected points added over the last decade, throw at Adrian Peterson,

636
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: the one non quarterback to win. Throw at Cam Newton

637
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: because he's a unique sort of quarterback. Otherwise, the MVP

638
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: over the last decade has been number one in EPA

639
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: eight of the nine years, and they've been top three

640
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 1: in EPA plus completion over expected all nine years and

641
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: number one six of the time. So here's my question, Raheem,

642
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: do you know what quarterback so far this season is

643
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: number one in both EPA and completion overexpected.

644
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 2: I'm gonna guess that is probably Kyler Murray.

645
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: It is Kyler Murray, and that's my play here, so

646
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: you can get him at thirteen to one. And I

647
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: know it's an unprecedented sort of MVP. How do you

648
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:20,239
Speaker 1: miss the entire month of November basically and still win MVP? Well,

649
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 1: guess what all the other MVPs sucked in November? Like

650
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: not playing at all? It turns out is better than

651
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: all the terrible things that Like, here's what happened in November.

652
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: Josh Allen lost a couple of big games. Justin Herbert

653
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: fell up a cliff. Matt Stafford dug his own grave

654
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 1: and threw himself into it. Aaron Rodgers got COVID and

655
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: did the whole media thing like Dak Prescott. The Cowboys

656
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: are in a free fall. Who are the other MVP candidates?

657
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray almost just by stepping away and getting healthy

658
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: for a while. In good shape. The Cardinals are nine

659
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: and two. Kyler went healthy seven and zero. They're gonna

660
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 1: get Kyler back rested on a month. They're getting Nuke

661
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 1: Hopkins back case Edmund should.

662
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 2: Be back soon.

663
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 1: Schedule is looking a lot better now than it did earlier.

664
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: Bears Rams from Monday night where the Rams are not

665
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 1: looking good. That's in Arizona. You can basically clinch the

666
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: division there, Lions Folts another home game, and then Cowboys

667
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: and Seattle. There's some big spots for Murray to have

668
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: a big game. There's a real chance. We know that

669
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: MVPs come from winning teams. The Cardinals are a great

670
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: spot right now to get that NFC one seed, and

671
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: especially if you've got money on Brady already. I think

672
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: Kyler is a really important hedge at this point because

673
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: the Cardinals are the most likely team to stop the

674
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: Bucks from getting that one seed and put them in

675
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: the way. So Kyler Murray thirteen to one. That's basically

676
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 1: the number we got on Brady the start of the year.

677
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 1: Before Kyler got hurt, he was half of that. He

678
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: was like six hundred or six fifty. So I like

679
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: Kyler a lot. We've talked a lot about the MVP race.

680
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: Did I sell you on Kyler's odds at all?

681
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 2: I think it's interesting, But you know, I'm a little

682
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 2: I'm conservative with these type of things, but I think

683
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 2: I think you presented a good case, and I think

684
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: he comes back strong and he finishes out the season well.

685
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: I think you have a really good case. But the

686
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,439
Speaker 2: fact he missed so much Tom, it's just it's tough.

687
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: I mean, even with you saying that a lot of

688
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 2: these players didn't play well, Tom Brady still had to

689
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 2: drive this team back from a ten point deficit. You

690
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 2: look at Lamar Jackson, He's still got to win last week.

691
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 2: So it's tough to put a guy like Pop McCoy

692
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 2: actually came in and once a game. I think Dat

693
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 2: Prescott has kind of played his way out of it.

694
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 2: He's been really consistent as he came back from his injury.

695
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: I think Lamar has been really rough. But I think

696
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: you had the initial read correct the first time you

697
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: said Tom Brady, and I think he may end up

698
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:41,839
Speaker 2: getting Yeah.

699
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: I still like my Tom Odds, but I think that

700
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,240
Speaker 1: Kyler is a good haadch at this point. So it's interesting.

701
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 1: It's definitely a very open MVP race. I don't remember

702
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 1: when feeling this unpredictable. You know, we're in December now,

703
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 1: we have no idea who it's going to be. It's

704
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 1: Brady is like the default MVP, and no one is

705
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: really that about what he's been doing. You look in

706
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: those epas completion overexpected, but he's only like six seventh

707
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 1: eighth in those. You know, he's gonna have to be

708
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: a little better, I think to get it. So I'm

709
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: gonna a hope on him. But I do think Kyler

710
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 1: will have a shot if he comes back here. All right,

711
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 1: let's get out of here, but before we do, we

712
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: need to hit our week fourteen look ahead hot.

713
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 4: Rock by Ice Rights ice Cream.

714
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 2: So you know how we do?

715
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: We go ahead to next Sunday, get some early value.

716
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: You've got a really interesting one for next Sunday. So

717
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: what's your week fourteen look ahead?

718
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Saints Jets over forty three and

719
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: a half. I think this total is way too low

720
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 2: when I look at my model, actually have this around

721
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 2: forty seven. Look, I mean, I know the Saints offense

722
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: has really been struggling recently, but this is still a

723
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 2: really really bad jazz defense. I behave they rate towards

724
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 2: the bottom of every metric you could find, whether it's

725
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: success rate, whether it's EPA for play. The Saints are

726
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 2: gonna find some success hopefully at that point Alba Kamara

727
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 2: will be back in the lineup. And then when you

728
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 2: look at the other side of the wall, I think

729
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: the Stints have really been struggling defensively, and I just

730
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: think forty three is such a low total. You kind

731
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: of can call sneeze pass interference your way over to total.

732
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna grab that now. I'm not really that

733
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 2: crazy about anything else, but my model makes this a

734
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 2: lot higher. And then when you also you're looking at

735
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 2: six point spread, in order for the States to cover that,

736
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 2: it's kind of got to go over. So let's take

737
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 2: that over forty three and a half. I think it's

738
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 2: probably go up to forty five. Yeah, that's a rough

739
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: slate for Week fourteen. I had a pretty hard time

740
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 2: coming up with a look ahead to pick two. I'm

741
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 2: going to go with the forty nine ers on the

742
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 2: road plus two in Cincinnati. I know we just said

743
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 2: all those things about San Francisco earlier, but we said

744
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: a lot about Cincinnati too. The Niners are better than

745
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 2: the Bengals. They're a lot better than the Bengals, especially

746
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: the way that Niners are playing. It's possible that Deebo.

747
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: Samuel or Fred Warner could be back for that game.

748
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: Even if they're not, I just like sand Friend better.

749
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 1: And again, now you got an underdog spot. We're not

750
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: back in Canahan as a favorite dog, Shanahan as a

751
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: road dog. Sixty seven against the spread. So you know,

752
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: I think that the Bengals possibly lose the Chargers. We

753
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 1: both like that one. The Niners maybe lose the Seattle,

754
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: but might come out and win. I don't know if

755
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 1: this line is gonna move a ton before Sunday, but

756
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: I really doubt that we're gonna get it to a

757
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: three or three and a half. I don't think it's

758
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:23,879
Speaker 1: gonna move that far towards Cincinnati. So I'm just gonna

759
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 1: take it now. I'm gonna make sure I get that

760
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: underdog spot. The plus two, who's been a key number

761
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: like three at times with all the weird ticking stuff now,

762
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: so that my strongest look ahead. But I like San

763
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: Francisco plus two in Cincinnati.

764
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 2: I'm not mad at that. I actually like this one too,

765
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: And I think the one thing I liked about this

766
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 2: one is I think what makes the look ahead segment

767
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 2: that we do this week a lot tougher is that

768
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 2: you have a lot of teams coming off of bow weeks,

769
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 2: and in this segment, we're actually looking for games that

770
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: we feel like are gonna move, and with us picking

771
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: the Chargers, we could see this line going. So this

772
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 2: is a game that I actually liked as well, Whereas,

773
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 2: like a lot of some of these other games, a

774
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: team power rating isn't going to change when I don't

775
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: want to buy. So a lot of these numbers are

776
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 2: going to be there next week. I think this one

777
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 2: probably won't be there, especially if the forty nine is

778
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 2: pulled it off against the Seahawks and the Bengals loose.

779
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 2: As we're predicting, we like to chart, so yeah, I agree.

780
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 1: I think all these big favorites, like most of them,

781
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 1: are going to win still, and so then even if

782
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: you get kind of an ugly win, you're not going

783
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: to move the power ranking too much and their line's

784
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,239
Speaker 1: not going to move a whole lot. So yeah, that's

785
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: probably what's happening here. But we will be back Sunday

786
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 1: and get some hot reads in. We will get I'm

787
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: sure some line movement by Sunday night, so we'll catch you. Then.

788
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: That is a wrap for today. On strong side Fridays,

789
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: make sure to download the app, rate, subscribe, and reviews

790
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 1: of the podcast. Him and our back first thing Monday

791
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: to run through the whole week thirteen slate for him Palmer.

792
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Anderson and this has been the Action Network podcast.

793
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 1: Enjoy your weekend.

794
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:07,760
Speaker 2: Progna Dostibul needs broken, spare you. Constil means problem, Spastil

795
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 2: means problem. St