1 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: Well, joining me now is a longtime friend of mine. 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,960 Speaker 2: Mike mcfolg is the former Ambassador to Russia, among other 3 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 2: stints in and out of government. He's at Stanford University 4 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 2: at the Hoover Institute, and he's author of a new books. 5 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: Author of a lot of books, this is what right 6 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: these Days? 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 2: But his latest is called Autocrats Versus Democrats and in 8 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 2: some ways. 9 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: Essentially trying to I think you tell me, trying. 10 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: To explain the world these days, like how is the 11 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,559 Speaker 2: world being divvied up? And I guess the where I'd 12 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 2: want to jump before we get into some of the 13 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 2: nitty gritty of the current situation. Is everything old new again? 14 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 2: Meaning is the world back to where it was pre 15 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: World War Two? 16 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 3: Well, chucks, first, thanks for having me. Second, I have 17 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 3: written a lot of books you're write, but this is 18 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 3: my last book. Uh, this has been This is my 19 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 3: most ambitious book ever. 20 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: Amus the last word, my last book. 21 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 2: It's politicians say, my last election, my last book, the 22 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 2: last time I'm doing this. 23 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 3: Okay, tig on my hands by saying it on the 24 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 3: public record, because I really it killed me. This is 25 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: a hard book to write. It took me many years 26 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 3: and I you know, I do other things, as you know, 27 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 3: I run an institute here at Stanford. I teach at Stanford. 28 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 3: But but it's ambitious in a good way because I 29 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 3: try to answer your question and the original question that 30 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 3: I started with when I you know, it goes back 31 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 3: to twenty seventeen when President Trump first won and he 32 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 3: brought in his national security team and they wrote a 33 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 3: very i would say historic national Security strategy. Hr McMaster 34 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 3: at the time was the National Security Advisor. He kind 35 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 3: of spearheaded it. Whether the President himself read it or not, 36 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 3: I don't know. I've heard that he didn't. We'll come 37 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 3: back to him later. But it was a pretty It 38 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 3: was a statement that said that old post Cold War 39 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 3: order with American hegemony and everybody wanting to be part 40 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 3: of the democratic world was over and we'd answered a 41 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 3: new war era of great power competition. And I thought 42 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 3: they were right about that. But then they and I 43 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 3: would say that the debate in Washington especially circled around 44 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 3: are we in a new Cold War with China and 45 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 3: a sidekick Russia? And you know, as an academic, I 46 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 3: wanted to answer that question as a hypothesis, what's the 47 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 3: data to support that or not. And you know, I 48 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 3: know a little bit about the Cold War. I wrote 49 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 3: my PhD about Cold War competition, so it wasn't like 50 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 3: I was starting from scratch. But I answered in a 51 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 3: pretty complex way, which is why the book's five hundred 52 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 3: pages long. You should know it used to be twelve 53 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 3: hundred pages long. So I did a lot of cuts 54 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 3: to make it more exciting. 55 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 1: So you could have had volume two and then come 56 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: out with a second edition. 57 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 3: Well there was talk about that one on China, Ron 58 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 3: and Russia. I didn't want to do that. But the 59 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 3: very complex answer that I have to your question, but 60 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,239 Speaker 3: I'm going to get to the thirties as well, before 61 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: the World War two? Is is it a new Cold War? Yes? 62 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 3: Is it a new Cold War? No? I answer it 63 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 3: in both ways, which is to say, there are some 64 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 3: things that are similar in some things that are different, 65 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 3: and similarities to great powers China and Russia, China and 66 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 3: the United States ideological contests most certainly. That's why my 67 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: book is called Autocrats Versus Democrats. Different conceptions of the 68 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 3: world order, absolutely, and yet on the different side, I 69 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 3: think they're even bigger and more important. So yes, it's 70 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: an ideological struggle. But it is not to the same 71 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 3: intensity as it was with the Soviets. I think that 72 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 3: is overstated, especially with my Republican colleagues that say we're 73 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 3: in an existential fight and this is a bigger challenge 74 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 3: than ever before in the history of the United States. 75 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 3: That's just wrong in my view. Second big difference complex 76 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: difference with pluses and minuses, is our economies are highly intertwined. 77 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 3: We didn't have that with the Soviets. But the biggest 78 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 3: differences are about us, Chuck, are the biggest differences are 79 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 3: here in the United States. We today have a level 80 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 3: of polarization that you know, we might have had it 81 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 3: in the late sixties, early seventies, but I think it's 82 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 3: actually more acute today. That's different. That weakens us in 83 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 3: dealing with our adversaries abroad. And the other piece that's 84 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 3: different is we're in a new era of isolationism, most 85 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: prominent in the Republican Party, but not only very growing 86 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 3: within the Democratic Party as well. And that piece reminds 87 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 3: me more of the nineteen thirties than the Cold War, 88 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 3: because during the Cold War there was a broad consensus, 89 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 3: kind of forty five yard lines, right, It wasn't extreme 90 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 3: and that's not true. We had our Communists. I'm a 91 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 3: Stanford guy. You know, we had our Communists up at Berkeley. 92 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 3: You know, they were there, but they were pretty marginal. Uh. 93 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 3: And there was a kind of broad consensus that in 94 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 3: order to prevail in the Cold War, we had to 95 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 3: be engaged in the world. Uh. That is no longer true. 96 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 3: I mean that that sentiment which we see in opinion polls, 97 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: and I feel when I'm out talking about the book 98 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: around the country, that's no longer true to it. That's 99 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 3: a big difference. 100 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 1: So I will I appreciate the way you address the question. 101 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: I will confess that I meant it in a different way, 102 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 2: and I'll tell you what I'm I'll. 103 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: Tell you what I meant. 104 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 2: Look, I've been tackling this current era in polarization through 105 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 2: my own lens of histories more domestic, more domestic than 106 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 2: than than international. But I keep coming back to the 107 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 2: same conclusion, and I can back it up with different data. 108 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 2: Six of our last seven presidential elections been cited by 109 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 2: five points or less. In the entire twentieth century, we 110 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 2: only had five elections decided by five points or less. 111 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: I didn't know that. 112 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 2: Wow, okay, and yeah, it's one of those you're just 113 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: like it's it is. It is like there's something has 114 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 2: radically changed this century. Right, when you look at the 115 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 2: nineteenth century, we had two different periods where we had like, 116 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 2: first of all, we had two different periods where we 117 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 2: elected five one term presidents in a row. 118 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: We did it at the end of the century. 119 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 2: We did it sort of in the run up between 120 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 2: Jackson and Lincoln twenty you know, I'm obsessed with that. 121 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 2: We had seven presidents in twenty eight years between Jackson. 122 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: And Lincoln. 123 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 2: Only one was due to death right, so it was 124 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 2: parties were consistently thrown and it was all every election 125 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: was about the same thing, I can bring the country together, right, Okay, 126 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 2: we'll try this, right, and it was different things. We'll 127 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 2: try a Democrat from the north right that was Franklin Pierce, 128 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 2: you know, all sorts of different the things. 129 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: What's hard. 130 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 2: And you look at our partisan media today, it looks 131 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: a lot like the partisan media of the late nineteenth 132 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 2: century early twentieth century. Is it possible the Cold War 133 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 2: era was simply an outlier period in world history like 134 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: that there is no other period like it. And what 135 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 2: we're dealing with today is no different than the nineteenth 136 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 2: century globe. We had great powers then, right, no different 137 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 2: than the fifteenth century. We can keep going back, and 138 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 2: in some ways the globe in human history has been 139 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 2: defined by great powers only in this unique sixty year 140 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,119 Speaker 2: period where you and I had the luxury of growing 141 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: up in it. Thinking this is normal, And I think 142 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 2: because I sit there and I wonder how much it's 143 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 2: almost like is this bad data? 144 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: Right? 145 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 2: If this word numbers, we'd say, oh, this is outlier data. 146 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: Throw it out. 147 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, that's a great observation, Chuck, And I hope 148 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 3: you're writing your book on that topic. That's great. Seriously, 149 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 3: that is a great time. And I don't think a 150 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 3: lot of Americans know, including me, by the way, and 151 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 3: I have a lot of books. You can see it. 152 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: I see that. 153 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: I don't know. You know that history the way you 154 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 3: just described it, that would make a great book. 155 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: But you appreciate you saying that. 156 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 2: I'll make sure we'll clip this and I'll send it 157 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: to all the publishers here in New York. 158 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 3: You should, you should, But you're you're onto something. Absolutely. 159 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 3: I agree, and I also hope you're wrong. 160 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: So let me Yeah, I hope I'm wrong too, you 161 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: know I do. 162 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 3: So there's two things that are going on, I would 163 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 3: say in the Cold War period. One is, you do 164 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 3: have we have an adversary that everybody understands is an 165 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 3: ad adversary, existential threat, all that stuff, and I did, 166 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 3: you know, to write this new book, I went through 167 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 3: all that history again. I used to know it, but 168 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 3: I had to relearn it. And that helped to create 169 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 3: some sort of consensus and unity in the United States. 170 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 3: You know, we had this word containment. That was our 171 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 3: strategy towards the Soviets. It was pretty elastic, right the 172 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 3: way Reagan you find containment, and you know, Nixon was 173 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 3: very different, but it still was this thing. It brought 174 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 3: us together Democrats and Republicans. There was a lot of 175 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 3: consensus on foreign policy, partly because of the Soviet threat, 176 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 3: but the other piece it was partly because we were 177 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 3: so powerful, the United States of America, and that part 178 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 3: where we were the great power. We were the great power, 179 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 3: and in retrospect, the Soviets were not as great as 180 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 3: we were. We didn't know that always at the time, 181 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 3: right we overestimated the Soviet threat. By the way, I 182 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 3: think we're doing a little bit of that with the 183 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 3: Chinese threat today. But it was our power that was 184 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 3: this organizing principle, not just visa the Soviets, but around 185 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 3: the world. And you know, Bob Kagan has this great book, 186 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 3: I'm going to forget the name of it, Oh, the 187 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 3: Jungle Grows Back, which is which is. 188 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: Basically Laws of the Jungle. 189 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 3: Right when we became the hedgemon, the jungle receded, but 190 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 3: now that we're falling back. And he wrote this book 191 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 3: like a decade ago, not in the Trump era, the 192 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 3: jungles growing back. And his argument is, just like yours said, 193 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 3: this is a unique period in history and now we're 194 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 3: back to normal, you know, Besian anarchic dog yak dogs politics, 195 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 3: great power politics. You know, if I analytically, I think 196 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 3: there's a lot of evidence to support that hypothesis. So 197 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 3: if I have my analytic professorial hat on, I see 198 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 3: those trends. But if I have my normative hat on, 199 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 3: I still want to fight for a different world than that, 200 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 3: because that world is not a great world. People forget. 201 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 3: You know, when I teach a course on American foreign 202 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 3: policy here at Stanford, I start it with a map 203 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 3: of Europe, it's a thousand year map of history of 204 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 3: Europe in six minutes. And what you see is that, 205 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 3: you know, borders moving all the time, right, like you know, 206 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: the Napoleon comes on the scene, the Nazis comes on 207 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 3: the scene, the Soviets come on the scene. Go back farther. 208 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 3: It's the Mongol, hordes rights, it's it's what we use 209 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 3: the word chaos. It's a lot of chaos. It's a 210 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 3: lot of killing. Millions and millions of people die. We 211 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 3: fought World War two to end that. And by the way, 212 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 3: the movie does kind of freeze in forty five, right, 213 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 3: borders in Europe, there's some there's some changes a little bit, 214 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 3: and then eighty nine we get some changes, but it 215 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 3: does kind of freeze because we agree we don't want 216 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 3: to live in that world, and even with the Soviets, 217 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 3: we agree we don't want annexation. But we're creeping back 218 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 3: to that of course, you know, with Russia's eric invasion 219 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 3: of Ukraine. But I just don't think that's a great 220 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 3: world to live in. 221 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: And oh, I agree, and I think we. 222 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:53,959 Speaker 3: Got to fight to all and you know, that's that 223 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 3: is the major reason why I wrote this book, to 224 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 3: fight to renew reform of course, all that, but another 225 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 3: form of liberal internationalism so that we don't go back 226 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 3: to that world. 227 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 2: So the problem, right, that you're facing, and well, frankly 228 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 2: that all small D democrats are facing, is that there's 229 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 2: not unity about this in our own country. And until 230 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 2: we have a unity about small D democracy in our country, 231 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 2: we can't export it. 232 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: We can't be the beacon. 233 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at certain things like are just 234 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 2: what appears to be indiscriminate bombing of boats in the Caribbean, 235 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 2: And I say indiscriminate, perhaps there's intelligence to support it. 236 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 2: I'm hoping our members of Congress demand it. Yes, we've 237 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: not seen it with people. The point being is our 238 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 2: behavior is not small D democratic behavior here, correct, and 239 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,959 Speaker 2: we just lost whatever a moral authority we had to 240 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 2: lecture any other country, including one that you wrote about 241 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 2: here called Russia. 242 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,679 Speaker 3: Yes, you're absolutely right, And you know my book is 243 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 3: called Autocrats Versus Democrats, the title China, Russia, America in 244 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 3: the New Global Disorder. Right, soolytically I'm agreeing with you. 245 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 3: And by the way, I wrote most of those book 246 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 3: obviously before our last election. I had about three weeks 247 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 3: to scramble to do some updating. And you know, often 248 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 3: times it's not clear what side of that divide we're on. 249 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 3: President Trump, he doesn't define the world in autocrats versus democrats. 250 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 3: He likes strong leaders versus week leaders. Right, I feel 251 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 3: like it's a movie version. 252 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 2: I call him like, I feel like he's a movie mobster, 253 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 2: meaning it's not the real I think the real mob 254 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 2: is real, dangerous, and there's a lot of things and 255 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 2: it shouldn't be glorified. But the movie mob right, movie mobsters. 256 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 2: I think Trump sees himself as the head of that 257 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 2: kind of benevolent movie mobster family. And this is just 258 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 2: how you do it. Sometimes. Sometimes you do things ethically, 259 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 2: but sometimes you don't, depending on the situation. 260 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 3: Right, Well, and you know that could work in the 261 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 3: short term, as I write about it. 262 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: Worked in the Middle East, I think it's the only 263 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: place it works. 264 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 2: Maybe it works with Putin if he would be if 265 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 2: he would treat Putin the way he treat Bybee, maybe 266 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 2: he could. 267 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: Have similar outcomes. 268 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 2: But it feels like the only places where his style 269 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 2: might be an asset not a liability. 270 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 3: Well, it definitely doesn't work with allies. So you know, 271 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 3: as I write about and you know you can if 272 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 3: you're really powerful. You know, I grew up in Butte, Montana, 273 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 3: pretty rough place, mining town, and Eddie and his gang 274 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 3: every you know, for three years would try to beat 275 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 3: me up every day, and they were stronger than me 276 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 3: and more powerful, and I would They could coerce me 277 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 3: to do things, and I would do it if I 278 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 3: had to for survival purposes. But did I like it? No? 279 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 3: And when I got strong enough that I could push 280 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 3: back on it, I did, and that you know, that's 281 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 3: not a good way to do transaction. Always coercion and 282 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 3: put and trump. He always thinks about power in terms 283 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 3: of coercive power. He doesn't think about cooperative power. 284 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: When earning trust or like, look what he did to 285 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 2: the Argentinian people. Well here's your loan, but you better 286 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 2: support my guy or I'm pulling the money. 287 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 3: And you're like, that's all that's corsion, you know, right, 288 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 3: Cred's to the Allies about they should share more of 289 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 3: the burden. They there's a different way to do that. 290 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 3: And then and eventually people get tired of being coerced 291 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 3: as I did on the streets of Butte Montana. And 292 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 3: you know, if we were the only headgemon, that would 293 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 3: be one thing. But China's offering a different world order. 294 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 3: They're offering something else. And and so I just think 295 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 3: this this is not a long term strategy. The one 296 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 3: he's doing is just not a long term strategy. But 297 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 3: there's another piece to it that that is also is 298 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 3: equally uh you know, unnerving for me that if you 299 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 3: go back to the Cold War, and I'm going to oversimplify, 300 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 3: of course, but you know, it was kind of Red 301 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 3: team versus Blue team, right, we knew the communists and 302 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 3: the capitalists, the free world and the you know, the 303 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 3: autocratic world. And remember those maps you know with sides 304 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 3: would's flip, right, So like Angola became read, you know, 305 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 3: and Nicaragua became read at least you know, everybody was. 306 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 2: Defined by it, right, I was Pakistan and ally in India. 307 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: You know, you had the the underlying countries, you know 308 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: those three. 309 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 2: Or four right, Your South Africa's your your India, your Brazil. 310 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 3: Right. So what's new today is that the fight between 311 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 3: autocrats and democrats is not just between countries like it 312 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 3: was during the Cold War, it's actually within countries. And 313 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 3: Putin and Putinism as a set of illiberal, nationalist, anti 314 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 3: democratic ideas of which he's had for a long time, 315 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 3: and he's invested in propagating those for a long time. 316 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 3: I think we really have been sleeping on this. I 317 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 3: have old chapter on it in the book where we 318 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 3: just don't we just think, oh, he's just some transactional thug. Uh. 319 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 3: And and when I was in the government, that's the 320 00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 3: way many of our senior leadership referred to him. And 321 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 3: my point is you can be a transactional thug and 322 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 3: an ideologue at the same time. You know, think of Stalin, 323 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 3: and he's both of those things. And what he has 324 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 3: done through Russia today and NGOs that reach out to 325 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 3: our NGOs and the Russian Orthodox Church that reach out 326 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 3: to our religious communities with the same ideology he's now helped. 327 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 3: And this's also happened organically. It's not just all from Moscow. 328 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 3: But now there's fights you know, within Hungary, within Italy, 329 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 3: within Germany, within France, and within as this you know 330 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 3: better than I within our country. And so you have 331 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 3: now Americans that and even sometimes our president by the way, 332 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 3: he's all over the place these days on Putin. But 333 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:53,199 Speaker 3: there are millions of Americans that ideologically are closer to 334 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 3: Putin than they are to me, even though I'm an American, right, 335 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 3: So you have like one of their main idea chuck 336 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 3: in Russia today. His name is Alexander duked. He is 337 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 3: one of the main ideaologues of Putinism. He appears regularly 338 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 3: on Info Wars is a He is a beloved guest 339 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 3: of that podcast of that show. 340 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 4: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like 341 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 4: there's a reason. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury 342 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 4: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered 343 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 4: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients. 344 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 4: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing, 345 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 4: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible. 346 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 4: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact, 347 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 4: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars, 348 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 4: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the 349 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 4: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and 350 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 4: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty 351 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 4: thousand dollars, so with more than one thousand lawyers across 352 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 4: the country. They know how to deliver for everyday people. 353 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 4: If you're injured, you need a littlelawyer, you need somebody 354 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 4: to get your back. Check out for the People dot Com, 355 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 4: Slash podcast or now Pound Law Pound five two nine, 356 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 4: l a W on your cell phone. And remember all 357 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 4: law firms are not the same. So check out Morgan 358 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 4: and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. 359 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: To a Tucker guy too. 360 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 3: I yes, yes, guys interviewed them. 361 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been I forgot about that. 362 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 3: They have also interacted. So that's different, right, that's and 363 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 3: that's and then of course therefore to support small d 364 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 3: democrats abroad when we're doing these things near to impossible. 365 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 3: And what I'll also add to this because it's on 366 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 3: my mind, because Machada just won the Nobel Peace Prize 367 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 3: right in Venezuela. Here at Stanford, we were quite connected 368 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 3: to democratic movements all over the world, including Venezuela. One 369 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 3: of her closest colleagues was here at Stanford at a 370 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 3: summer program I run during the elections that they won, 371 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 3: stolen from them, and then the Venezuelans canceled his passport. 372 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 3: He's been stranded here at Stanford. Ever since those people 373 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 3: want us to be involved, right, Am I wrong not 374 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 3: to be extraordinarily that the Nobel Committee did us all 375 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 3: that this was a good I mean, look that this 376 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 3: was a good pick. 377 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 2: I mean that this was sort of they found somebody 378 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 2: that wasn't going to divide us. Like I am just 379 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 2: so excited, and I'm glad that Trump administration's excited. There's 380 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 2: something about her, and there's something about it feels like, 381 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 2: you know, sometimes the Nobel Committee rewards the past. Sometimes 382 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 2: they give you something for now, and this felt like 383 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 2: they gave. 384 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 3: Us something not agree more one hundred percent. And you're 385 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 3: right about that past rewarding stuff. Let's not I couldn't 386 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 3: name names, but they don't. Yeah, yeah, this is not 387 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 3: that she's still she's still fighting for democracy and really 388 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 3: Lee and my view, her messaging to the Trump administration 389 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 3: for words, could not have been better. 390 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, she's been She's been terrific. 391 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 2: There, Sorry I interrupted you on that, but I just 392 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 2: wanted to set that. I mean, I just think that 393 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 2: this feels I just you know, this feels like this 394 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 2: just feels righteous, right, you just sometimes a moment is righteous. 395 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: Right, This feels right more and not agree more. 396 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, So this is one of those moments with Venezuela 397 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 2: where we're going to be on the side of the 398 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 2: of the democrats here. But is it because of democracy? 399 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 3: Well, the tragedy of Venezuela, I mean, the tragedy's inside. 400 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 3: And you know, my opinion, we should have done more 401 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 3: when they had that electoral breakthrough, they documented it was falsified, 402 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 3: and you know, the Biden administration and the whole free 403 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 3: world should have leaned in more. 404 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 1: I just kind of feckless. What more could we? 405 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 2: I mean, we didn't do anything because I think there 406 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 2: was a fear of doing it that other than rhetoric, 407 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 2: it would mean you know, maybe we would have to 408 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,640 Speaker 2: you know, move carriers or do something like that. 409 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: And and Biden just wasn't it just wasn't willing to 410 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: do that. 411 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 3: They had a lot of they had a lot on 412 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 3: their plate and and I don't want to say that 413 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 3: doing more would have you know, overturned Maduro, but there 414 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 3: were they they could have done sanctions, they could have 415 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 3: been more aggressive. Not you know, we didn't need to 416 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 3: do military action. But when I think of like the 417 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 3: Orange Revolution in two thousand and four, which was a 418 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 3: very similar situation in Ukraine where the Democrats Small D 419 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: Democrats documented that it was falsified. We sent Senator Lugar 420 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 3: there and then said we're not recognizing this election and 421 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 3: we got involved in negotiating the Europeans did. But that 422 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 3: you know that that train has left the station, that 423 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 3: that is not there. 424 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: Well, that's the story of Latin America. 425 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 2: We never have We always have something else on our 426 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 2: plate before we're going to tackle it. Is the sorry, 427 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 2: as a guy whow up in Miami, this is what 428 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 2: this is why they resent us. This is why they 429 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 2: resent us, and hey, we never focus on their problems first. 430 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: It always takes a backseat. 431 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 3: Well there's something to that, but here's the IRA irony 432 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 3: or tragedy also of what's going on with the Trump administration. 433 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 3: So President Trump talked to Machado, right, she's the leader 434 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 3: of the Venezuelan opposition. That's great. But what I think 435 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 3: a lot of Americans don't know is the NGOs that 436 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 3: have been working with the Venezuelan opposition for decades, groups 437 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 3: like the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute, the 438 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:42,160 Speaker 3: two Arms. 439 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:43,679 Speaker 1: I've done a little bit on them. 440 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,479 Speaker 2: These are the two international arms of our domestic major parties, 441 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 2: the Democratic Party, which overseas, these are have been in 442 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 2: the past very simpatico exactly, and I don't know how 443 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 2: simpatico it is these days, but it has been. 444 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 3: It's still this, it's still this. I used to work 445 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 3: friend and I'm on their board. And but these all 446 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 3: these organizations that help small d democrats and independent media, 447 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 3: President Trump just shut them down. You know, he just 448 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 3: closed the United States Agency for International Development. He's going 449 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 3: after the National Endowment for Democracy. And you know, we 450 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 3: just can't compete with the Chinese if we don't support 451 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 3: those that are ideologically aligned with freedom, liberty, democracy. And 452 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 3: I chose that those words very precisely chucked because this 453 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 3: is a nonpartisan thing. Freedom tends to be a liberty 454 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 3: tends to be a republican word. Democracy tends to be 455 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 3: a democratic word. I think they're all the same. And 456 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 3: we got to be in this fight in the long 457 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 3: run or we're going to be in trouble. 458 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 2: No, and it we're And I guess the question is 459 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 2: we just got to run a better persuasion campaign of 460 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 2: why democracy around the world benefits us. I mean, I 461 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:01,439 Speaker 2: look at this weird strain of anti a fervor inside 462 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 2: the right, and I'm sitting there going look, in the 463 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 2: nineteenth century, we would have just colonized Europe. Yes, it's 464 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,399 Speaker 2: the great power, and we would have been responsible for 465 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 2: social security for all these people and responsible. You know, 466 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 2: here was a case where Europe was essentially we had 467 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 2: the I mean, I hate to be this cynical about it, 468 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 2: the modern version of colonialism, which was we were their 469 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,479 Speaker 2: security blanket. Yes, and it was working out pretty well 470 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 2: for everybody. Why would we want to give that up? 471 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 2: I mean, the ability to essentially have countries without having 472 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 2: to be responsible for governing these countries, and yet they 473 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 2: were under our sphere of influence. I mean, to just 474 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 2: be totally looking at it as cynical way, it was working, 475 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 2: and it was working quite well one hundred percent. 476 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 3: And you know, my lessons from the Cold War for 477 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 3: what we should do today at the top of my 478 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 3: list in my book and my book Talks Allies. That 479 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 3: was our superpower during the Cold War. It remained so today. 480 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 3: And to add to your list, we also did an 481 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 3: incredible amount of economic business with Europe. We continued to 482 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 3: do so. It was win win for both sides. And 483 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 3: to undermine that is just not strategic at all. And 484 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,439 Speaker 3: you know, I'm not giving up, Like there's a lot 485 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 3: of people in my world that have given up and say, 486 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 3: we'll lever go back to thinking about supporting democratic ideals 487 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 3: or allies or trading. 488 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 2: But we'll go back, but we're probably going to have 489 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 2: to go through something nearly catastrophic in order to sober 490 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,159 Speaker 2: ourselves up. I mean, you know, right, you know, I 491 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 2: have this dark joke these days where I'm short term optimistic, 492 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 2: short term pessimistic, long term optimistic. And I say, in 493 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,880 Speaker 2: nineteen thirty nine, I'd have said I'm short term pessimistic 494 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 2: and long term optimistic, and by nineteen forty six I'd 495 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 2: have been right. But a lot of bad stuff happened 496 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 2: between nineteen thirty nine and nineteen forty six, and it 497 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 2: feels as if, unfortunately, we're going to have to have 498 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 2: a near you know, something bad has to happen. 499 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: They people have to feel the pain of the hot stove. 500 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, tragically. I think you're right, And you know, the 501 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 3: thirties is an excellent metaphor for the moment that we're 502 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 3: in now. 503 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 2: The thirties are the twenties, Well, townies are fascinating me 504 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:24,159 Speaker 2: because of the industry and government got so intertwined in 505 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 2: the twenties. 506 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 1: Well, that's true, and we're watching some of that now. 507 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 2: You have a front arguably have a front row seat 508 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 2: out there in Silicon Valley and that didn't end well either. 509 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 3: Well, you're right. We start with the twenties. We're in 510 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 3: the late twenties now. And if the analogy is there, 511 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 3: history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. And it 512 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 3: feels like that and the pivot that they all had, 513 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 3: all these companies out here with the Trump administration, and 514 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 3: you're right, by interact with all these folks and I 515 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 3: knew them back when Chuck I knew them, you know, 516 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 3: and they had different ideas. 517 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 1: Do they have ideologies or are they just transactionalists? Is 518 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,880 Speaker 1: that really what we found out about Silicon. 519 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 3: Out Uh, you know, there's a range. There's a range. 520 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 3: I think some are just it's about business interests and 521 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 3: we got to do what's right for the company. I 522 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 3: think there are some that, you know, I think of 523 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 3: a guy like Reid Hoffman, I think is much more 524 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 3: thoughtful about the world and understands the dangers. And then 525 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,399 Speaker 3: there are just you know, that some have changed and 526 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:26,879 Speaker 3: that happened. 527 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: I'd love to see read Hoffman and Peter Tield debate. 528 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 3: Well, funny you say that because I arranged that debate. 529 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 1: Did you really? I would love to see. 530 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 3: About eight or nine years ago, we had a program. 531 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 3: We were trying to bring together different perspectives and I 532 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 3: was there's this guy, Neil Ferguson who's at the Hoover section. 533 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 3: And it ended up not working out because it's hard 534 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,719 Speaker 3: to do these things, but we started it. Neil was, 535 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 3: you know, the cares about It's kind of like remember 536 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 3: Hannity and Colms. You're old enough to remember Handy and calms, 537 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 3: calms and right. Yeah, Yeah, I was to Neil because I. 538 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: Think we called that the Washington Generals and the Trotters, right, 539 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 1: how that? 540 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 3: But you know, Neil is a very charismatic and I 541 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 3: we're friends, and I you know, we don't always agree. 542 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,880 Speaker 1: We sell yourself short. You're pretty charismatic, but that was. 543 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 3: Our idea and the best one we did, yeah, is 544 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 3: Reid Hoffman and Peter Teel and interesting. It was extraordinary, 545 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 3: and it had the virtue that they were college kids 546 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 3: together here at Stanford, so those. 547 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 2: They were friendly they had a relationship, Yes, and they were, 548 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 2: and they're both super smart guys and and we need 549 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 2: more of that. 550 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 3: That's we they are not to what I understand. I 551 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 3: haven't seen Peter for a while, but I don't think 552 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 3: they're doing many of those events these days. 553 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 2: And we feels like everybody's closing off, everybody's retreating right now. 554 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 1: Do you feel it in academia fear of debate right now? Yeah? 555 00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, fear of debate absolutely, even fear of me 556 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 3: Juck speaking on campus. And you know, there's a there's 557 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 3: a definitely, you know, sensitivity to anything that might sound partisan. 558 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,240 Speaker 3: And you know, I'm very clear in. 559 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 2: Fact, because apparently the definition of partisan now is anything 560 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 2: somebody disagrees with. 561 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: I'm sort of great, right we're living. 562 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 2: This is where I sit here and go, hey, we're 563 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 2: living a free country. Yeah, And yet do you feel 564 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 2: comfortable debating in this country right now? 565 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 3: It's tricky. I mean what I try to do militantly 566 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,520 Speaker 3: And I even wrote a piece about this on Substack 567 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 3: to start our school year. Here it's how I teach 568 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,719 Speaker 3: at Stanford, and I wrote to explain because I publish something. 569 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 3: You know, this is my thirtieth year at Stanford. By 570 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 3: the way, so wow, starting my I'm going to. 571 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 2: Take what you take is proof California living's good. You 572 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 2: know you don't look like a thirty year professor. Well 573 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 2: thanks for saying that. 574 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:59,680 Speaker 3: I appreciate going to my reunion, my fortieth reunion on Friday. 575 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 3: Check here at Stanfield as a kid. But but you know, 576 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 3: I put something up and you know, the usual crap 577 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 3: about you know, wokeness and brainwash. And you know, the 578 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 3: way I teach all my classes are about why questions. 579 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 3: You know, why is there a great power competition today 580 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 3: versus not? Why do some countries become democratic versus not? 581 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 3: And you see, set them up as hypotheses, and then 582 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 3: I compel my students to debate. You pick lotteries and 583 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 3: you get numbers, and then you have to take certain positions. 584 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 3: And by doing that, by the way, they're arguing a 585 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 3: hypothesis that need not necessarily be their own belief system, right, 586 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 3: so I free them of having to all that I 587 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 3: feel I want, you know that I feel that whenever 588 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 3: sentences start that way, you know it's going to be complicated. 589 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 3: And and but then for every class, sometimes before sometimes 590 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,320 Speaker 3: after we like say okay, we're out of the classroom 591 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 3: setting and ask me anything, and we're going to talk 592 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 3: about what I believe. And I think there's a way 593 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 3: to separate out beliefs. 594 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 2: And as I do this, I have this class I 595 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 2: teach for USC, this cohort how Washington works, and it's 596 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 2: been very it's a pretty bipartisan group of students and 597 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 2: has been a couple semester now, and you can do this, 598 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 2: And this is what I want to tell some. I mean, 599 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 2: I do think I do send some professors spend time 600 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 2: lecturing about what they believe rather than helping their students 601 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 2: come to their beliefs exactly. I mean, my son said 602 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 2: something about he's taken this one political science class and 603 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 2: he goes, I really like the professor because you're not 604 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 2: telling me how I'm supposed to think. He's giving me 605 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 2: the information and explaining how each side thinks about it. 606 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 2: And it's like that doesn't seem to be a difficult 607 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 2: thing to ask for from a professor. And by the way, 608 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 2: if you're an expert, you're going to have an opinion 609 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 2: on which side is right right expect, but I want 610 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 2: to hear the understanding of each side of the argument. 611 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 3: Well, that's so your son's getting a good education. That's 612 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,440 Speaker 3: what it's supposed to be. And for those that know 613 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 3: some of my debates about NATO expansion in Ukraine and Russia. 614 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 3: First second week of my class on a Great Power 615 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 3: competition is John Mursheimer at the University of Chicago. We 616 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,040 Speaker 3: could not agree disagree more in terms of our theories 617 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 3: of international politics. But I want my students to read John. 618 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 3: And by the way, Chuck, I did a poll last 619 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 3: time I taught it. The majority of my class actually 620 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 3: agreed with Mursheimer and not me, even after twelve weeks 621 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 3: of me. So, but that's the way it's got to be. 622 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 3: That's the way it's got to be. 623 00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean, and I assume. 624 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 2: But when I want to get back to your book, 625 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 2: because I want to get back to Europe here a second, 626 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 2: so I know we don't have too much time left. 627 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,520 Speaker 2: His is the only beneficiary of what's happened over the 628 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 2: last ten years been Europe's at Europe. And I say 629 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 2: this in that I feel like there's a strength in 630 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 2: the EU that didn't exist ten years ago, didn't exist 631 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 2: twenty years ago. There is now. Look, each of these 632 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 2: countries have their own polarizing debates that look like ours, 633 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 2: right the UK, France, Italy, Germany. We're seeing it pop 634 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 2: up everywhere in western democracies. Don't get me wrong, but 635 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 2: the collective action of the European Union has been quite impressive. 636 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 3: Yes, and. 637 00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,360 Speaker 2: In some ways they're like, Okay, America is not going 638 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 2: to be here anymore. We've got to take matters into 639 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,279 Speaker 2: our own hands. And there's been a ton more cooperation 640 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,319 Speaker 2: than I expected. I think we all thought Europe would 641 00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 2: fracture without without us being the glue. 642 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 3: You know, that's a great observation. I agree. It of 643 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 3: course started when Putin invaded, or to be more correct, 644 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 3: he invaded Ukraine in twenty fourteen, and that war persisted. 645 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 3: Our president sometimes forgets that the war went on the 646 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,320 Speaker 3: entire first term of the Trump administration, but then he escalated. 647 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 3: The full scale invasion was twenty twenty two, and that 648 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 3: helped to bring Europe together. Without question. That was the 649 00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 3: first big event. But the second big event was the 650 00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 3: reelection of President Trump. And I was at the Munich 651 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 3: Security Conference when the vice president, Vice President JD. Vance 652 00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 3: came and lectured them about democracy. It was a pretty 653 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,680 Speaker 3: shocking speech. The Europeans were in shock, and that's in 654 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 3: the hallways. The whole conversation was, all right, we are 655 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:51,440 Speaker 3: now alone. We have to get our act. 656 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:55,440 Speaker 2: Together because they saw the next president in jd Vance's comments, 657 00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 2: didn't they They weren't looking at that as that's what 658 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 2: the Vice President is saying. He's as far as the 659 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,360 Speaker 2: Europeans are concerned, they just assume he's the next most 660 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 2: likely person to be president. And by the way, odds 661 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,000 Speaker 2: are that's correct, right, okay, right now. I mean he 662 00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,200 Speaker 2: may not may be only a twenty percent chance, but 663 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 2: no one has a higher percent. Right, he is the 664 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,719 Speaker 2: most likely next president of the United States. So Europeans, 665 00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 2: that's how they viewed that speech. 666 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,360 Speaker 3: I assume that's right. And so they did two or 667 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 3: three really big important things. So one greater unity, and 668 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,800 Speaker 3: we've seen the emergence of some new leaders. That's helped, 669 00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,840 Speaker 3: especially in Germany, but even even even. 670 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:33,320 Speaker 1: The Italian Prime Minister. 671 00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 2: I mean, I think a lot of people weren't sure 672 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 2: about her, and she's been she's had a nice step 673 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:38,200 Speaker 2: spine on this. 674 00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 3: I am with you one hundred percent. Is fantastic. I 675 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 3: was just in Italy about a month ago at a 676 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:48,320 Speaker 3: conference that was about Europe has been also about Italian politics. 677 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,719 Speaker 3: She was not there this time, but many of her 678 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:51,600 Speaker 3: leadership was. 679 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 1: But I mean she's still in power, which says. 680 00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,360 Speaker 3: A lot, and they were talking about that. I'm not 681 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 3: an expert an Italian politics. Learned a lot in a week. 682 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,720 Speaker 3: And you know, they've had more stability with their governments 683 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 3: under Maloney than they've had you know for most of 684 00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:08,040 Speaker 3: the earlier here. 685 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,000 Speaker 1: They're more stable than France, right. 686 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 3: And also the southern part of Europe is growing at 687 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 3: a higher rate than the northern part. That's also new. 688 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 3: That didn't used to be the case. But she's been fantastic. 689 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 3: Another guy, he's just in Washington this week, President Alexander 690 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:30,160 Speaker 3: Stubb from Finland. Not many people know alex I know 691 00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 3: him personally. He's a big thinker. He's got a book 692 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 3: just like mine coming out soon, the similar themes. I 693 00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,680 Speaker 3: blurbed it. I'm not so sure he wants that blurb now. 694 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 3: You know this is before the election that I blurned. 695 00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 1: Because he's got relations with Trump. 696 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,480 Speaker 3: Well, he's good at that. And what I would say 697 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:53,080 Speaker 3: is two things that want more unity for sure, two 698 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:58,479 Speaker 3: greater clarity on why they have to stop Putin's army 699 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 3: in Ukraine because of worse. You know, the threats are growing, 700 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,880 Speaker 3: and that's been happening for two or three years, but 701 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 3: now they're all focused on it, right. Sokorski, by the way, 702 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 3: is another one of these new leaders, Deputy Prime Minister, 703 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:15,480 Speaker 3: Foreign Minister Poland fantastic, big, big thing kind of guy. 704 00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:21,760 Speaker 3: But then three, they are collectively dealing with President Trump, 705 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 3: I think in a more sophisticated way than they did 706 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:28,720 Speaker 3: the first time around. You know, when when Trump went. 707 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:30,719 Speaker 1: If a Democratic Party could learn a lesson or two 708 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:30,960 Speaker 1: in that. 709 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,920 Speaker 3: Yes, yes, but will you know more about that than 710 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,359 Speaker 3: I do? But you know, Trump decided to meet with 711 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,959 Speaker 3: Putin in Alaska, give him the big summit and roll 712 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,239 Speaker 3: out the red carpet. And I just want to say, like, 713 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:47,560 Speaker 3: I support the president for trying to end this war. 714 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 3: He's putting effort in. I give him credit for that. 715 00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:54,440 Speaker 3: Number Two, he's engaging with the Russians. You have to 716 00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,360 Speaker 3: do that to try to end the war. I support this. 717 00:38:56,840 --> 00:39:00,160 Speaker 3: That's controversial in my world, but I support that. We're 718 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,960 Speaker 3: talking about a guy, you know, Putin, who I believe 719 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:07,280 Speaker 3: is evil. He's killed friends of mine, he's killing Ukrainians 720 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,600 Speaker 3: every single night. You still have to talk to them. 721 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 3: But the mistake of Alaska was it was all about 722 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 3: the meeting and not about the substance. And you know, 723 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,040 Speaker 3: he should read George Schultz's memoirs about how you know, 724 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 3: you got to have an agenda for these meetings and 725 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,160 Speaker 3: you don't have to check your values at the door 726 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 3: to meet with thoughts like Putin. But then I said 727 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:34,680 Speaker 3: on on camera, you know for nbcntings. By the way, 728 00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:38,799 Speaker 3: I'm still with them for a little bit longer. I said, 729 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:43,520 Speaker 3: whoever had the brilliant idea of having all the Europeans 730 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:48,000 Speaker 3: come and meet with Zelenski with the President two days 731 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 3: after that Alaska summit, That was a brilliant idea. I 732 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,359 Speaker 3: don't know whose idea it was, but I can tell 733 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,840 Speaker 3: you that the White House claimed it was their idea, yeah, 734 00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,680 Speaker 3: and put out I don't get quoted by the White 735 00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,239 Speaker 3: House too much to check these, but they put out 736 00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:05,360 Speaker 3: a press statement saying McFall believes that Trump was brilliant 737 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,640 Speaker 3: to organize that meeting. I'm pretty sure I know that 738 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:13,240 Speaker 3: it wasn't a Trump idea, but it was a really 739 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,680 Speaker 3: brilliant thing. And they're showing that they can work together. 740 00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:19,680 Speaker 3: That's a big accomplishment. So the upside of Europe. 741 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,840 Speaker 2: Why do I feel nervous that even though there's a 742 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,040 Speaker 2: need for collectivism in Asia, we're not going to get it. 743 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:28,960 Speaker 2: And this is I guess I need to get you 744 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,440 Speaker 2: out of here on this. But considering it felt like 745 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 2: the Quad was going to be the beginning of something. Yes, 746 00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:39,400 Speaker 2: and now we've got a trade war with India. You know, 747 00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,879 Speaker 2: I'm intrigued by the new leader in Japan. I'm very 748 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:46,439 Speaker 2: intrigued to see how she does there. Seems to be right, 749 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,839 Speaker 2: and it'll be interesting to see them. Them doubling their 750 00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:54,400 Speaker 2: defense spending is a b FD I think on that front. 751 00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 2: But it feels like we're a long way away from 752 00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 2: some sort of collective security agreement there. 753 00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:03,879 Speaker 3: So I agree, and tragically I agree. In my book, 754 00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,640 Speaker 3: I write about so the books about you know, Cold War, 755 00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,319 Speaker 3: great power competition. I look at power, ideology, global order. 756 00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,080 Speaker 3: But then because there was this debate about the Cold War, 757 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 3: I have three chapters of prescriptions. One is about mistakes 758 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,799 Speaker 3: by the way Chuck during the Cold War, which a 759 00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 3: lot of Americans forget because we won the Cold War, 760 00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,200 Speaker 3: so we forget about the mistakes, sure, but you know, 761 00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:30,200 Speaker 3: I coached third grade basketball for years, and you know, 762 00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,040 Speaker 3: when you win, everybody forgets about when your star player 763 00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:34,640 Speaker 3: fell out. 764 00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,000 Speaker 5: There's still there's still stuff on film you need to 765 00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,439 Speaker 5: fix exactly, and so I won't go through that now. 766 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,680 Speaker 5: But we did do a lot of big mistakes. We 767 00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,799 Speaker 5: can't repeat them, and we are tiptoeing towards some of them. 768 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,160 Speaker 5: But the successes that I have a whole chapter on successes, 769 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,840 Speaker 5: and the one is about allies and how we got 770 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,719 Speaker 5: our allies together in Europe, and I pretty provocatively in 771 00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:59,879 Speaker 5: this book say we need more collective security and even 772 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 5: a NATO like structure in Asia to deal with the 773 00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,719 Speaker 5: rise of China's today. And I think we do need that, 774 00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,720 Speaker 5: and I spend more. I can't go to Rush anymore. 775 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,960 Speaker 3: So I spend a lot of time in age these days, 776 00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:18,400 Speaker 3: and tragically it's moving in exactly the opposite direction, partly 777 00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,760 Speaker 3: because of Trump, partly because you know, the more leftists 778 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,160 Speaker 3: took over in South Korea, partly because of the crisis 779 00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,799 Speaker 3: inside Japan, you know, the trading rsters. But we are 780 00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,080 Speaker 3: not there yet, and I'm nervous about that. I'm nervous 781 00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,200 Speaker 3: about that. I was just in Taiwan a few months ago. 782 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,319 Speaker 3: They are nervous about it too, that they should be. 783 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,239 Speaker 3: I just feel like we might sell them out, and 784 00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:40,800 Speaker 3: I think that would be a big disaster. 785 00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,000 Speaker 2: I thought Scott Besson put it on the sellout list, 786 00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:45,320 Speaker 2: I mean the negotiating list. 787 00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,759 Speaker 1: Yes, sorry, I mean that looked like we know where 788 00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:49,120 Speaker 1: that's at. 789 00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:49,480 Speaker 3: It. 790 00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:53,240 Speaker 1: Sadly, I think that's going to take hostile action by China. 791 00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:58,040 Speaker 2: Before before everybody says, hey, wait, maybe we had to 792 00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,200 Speaker 2: put together a well and. 793 00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:05,160 Speaker 3: Back to your you know you're analogizing from before. That 794 00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,040 Speaker 3: might be the wake up thing that we need tragically, 795 00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,439 Speaker 3: because because as the thirties prove, as you know better, 796 00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 3: why but we were asleep and we put our head 797 00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,960 Speaker 3: in the sands and we said, what you know, Italians 798 00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,239 Speaker 3: went into Ethiopia, nobody knew where that was. Japanese went 799 00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,319 Speaker 3: into China, and it's like, you know, why do we care? 800 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:28,320 Speaker 3: And even when Stalin and Hitler both went into Poland, 801 00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:30,719 Speaker 3: you know, in thirty nine, and then Stalin went into 802 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,319 Speaker 3: a bunch of other countries, still millions of Americans said, 803 00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:35,840 Speaker 3: you don't have a you know, that's not where's that 804 00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:39,000 Speaker 3: that's far away. It reminds me so much of what 805 00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,640 Speaker 3: I hear about Ukraine. And it took forty one to 806 00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:46,680 Speaker 3: wake us up. It might have to be something much 807 00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,560 Speaker 3: more kinetic with the Chinese to make us realize that 808 00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,960 Speaker 3: we can't prevail in the twenty fifth three without being engaged. 809 00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,880 Speaker 2: Well, the only region we didn't do was the Middle East, 810 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,160 Speaker 2: and I know I gott to let you go, so 811 00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,560 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna there's I could one last question you, 812 00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:03,280 Speaker 2: but it's tough. 813 00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,920 Speaker 3: I'll just say one quick thing. Some good news so 814 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,080 Speaker 3: you know, Uh, I give the President and his team 815 00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,839 Speaker 3: some credit there. Uh, they got long ways to go. 816 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,879 Speaker 3: We need to celebrate good news when it happens. And 817 00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:18,720 Speaker 3: this week was good news for the president. 818 00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:22,640 Speaker 1: Is it his skill set uniquely suited to the Middle East? Oddly? 819 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:27,560 Speaker 3: Do you mind that earlier this works with those leaders 820 00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,240 Speaker 3: and Prime Minister net and Yahoo. I'm not so sure 821 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:35,240 Speaker 3: those those methods are transferable to guys like Putinin. 822 00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,760 Speaker 2: She No, that's I think the that's the real lesson 823 00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:40,799 Speaker 2: learned that because those guys still have they actually do 824 00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:42,879 Speaker 2: have ideologies correct the. 825 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,400 Speaker 3: Other guys power. They are not they are not dependent 826 00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:45,799 Speaker 3: on us. 827 00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,840 Speaker 1: The other guys are are really transactionalist. 828 00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:52,279 Speaker 3: Yes, I agree, Mike. 829 00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,719 Speaker 1: I uh, it is a big book. I still got 830 00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,600 Speaker 1: I still got to finish making my way through it. 831 00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:03,160 Speaker 2: But it is definitely a readable book, which that's always important. 832 00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:03,920 Speaker 1: So well done, my. 833 00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,719 Speaker 3: Friend appreciate that. Thanks, thanks for having me, m