Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Suzanne Maloney absolutely definitive
Speaker 1: at Brookings Institute and Foreign Affairs Magazine of piecing together
Speaker 1: where we are in this war? Suzanne, what is your
Speaker 1: uncertainty this morning? And your uncertainty after a presidential tweet
Speaker 1: at four am that frankly could have been out of
Speaker 1: Mad magazine from my childhood.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think we're in a very unpredictable
Speaker 2: situation right now. The President and the Iranians appear to
Speaker 2: be in a standoff around who can last longer under
Speaker 2: severe economic pressure. The President is determined to maintain the
Speaker 2: blockade on Iran, preventing them from exporting and earning revenues
Speaker 2: from their oil production, which is the primary source of
Speaker 2: support for the regime and for the country as a whole.
Speaker 2: The Europeans are determined to maintain their choke hold on
Speaker 2: the straight of hormones, which we'll have catastrophic implications over time,
Speaker 2: not for oil prices, but for the larger global economy.
Speaker 1: Is and your heritage I'm going to editorialize is realist
Speaker 1: foreign policy of Robert Gates. There's a big new Brazinski
Speaker 1: and others. Do we have a theory right now of
Speaker 1: foreign policy. Are we realist? Are we something else? I
Speaker 1: don't know? Are we just making it up? Tweet by tweet?
Speaker 2: Well, I think the America First ideology has morphed over
Speaker 2: time under President Trump's first and second terms. At this point,
Speaker 2: it is highly militaristic. It is very much forced first
Speaker 2: as a means of asserting American interests around the world,
Speaker 2: and it is very disinterested in the traditional reliance on
Speaker 2: allies and partners that has been the key to the
Speaker 2: extension of American influence as well as the broader prosperity
Speaker 2: and peace that we've had in the post World War
Speaker 2: two era?
Speaker 3: Suzanne, do we actually know who is running Iran right now?
Speaker 3: And whoever that is, is that a group that can
Speaker 3: really negotiate on behalf of the country.
Speaker 2: I think we have a decent sense of the most
Speaker 2: important figures within the regime. They're largely drawn from the
Speaker 2: Revolutionary Guard, but of course we believe that much. Tabahamane,
Speaker 2: the son of the late Supreme Leader, who has killed
Speaker 2: on the first day of the war and then elevated
Speaker 2: to his father's position, is still alive and is still
Speaker 2: helping to shape decision making. This is very much a
Speaker 2: system now that is driven by hardliners who have been
Speaker 2: at the forefront of Iran's most damaging and violent policies
Speaker 2: over the course of the past forty seven years. And
Speaker 2: they are not individuals who are particularly prone to compromise
Speaker 2: or to reconciliation with the United States or Israel.
Speaker 3: So President Trump portrays the leadership in Iran is in flux, failing.
Speaker 3: Maybe is that accurate?
Speaker 1: Do you think?
Speaker 3: Again? It just kind of goes to the question of
Speaker 3: can the United States negotiate in good faith with whomever
Speaker 3: is there.
Speaker 2: Look, Iran has always had a kind of diversity of
Speaker 2: factions within a system and really bociferous debates about both
Speaker 2: its foreign policy and its domestic policy. That isn't new,
Speaker 2: and it's not surprising that in the aftermath of the
Speaker 2: elimination of the senior echelons of the clergy as well
Speaker 2: as the security bureaucracy, that we're seeing at least some
Speaker 2: questions about how decisions are being made in different positions.
Speaker 2: I don't think that that is fundamentally it makes it
Speaker 2: impossible for us to negotiate with Iran. It has always
Speaker 2: been complicated, It has always required a high degree of
Speaker 2: focus and patience from the international community to achieve any
Speaker 2: clear outcomes with Iran. I think the challenge that we
Speaker 2: face is not the internal politics, but the sense within
Speaker 2: the regime that they have the upper hand and the
Speaker 2: time is on their side.
Speaker 1: Suzanne Maloney with US Folks a definitive on this study
Speaker 1: of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant. She's a Brookings
Speaker 1: Institution and of course writing for foreign policy as well
Speaker 1: as foreign affairs, I should say, which I can't say
Speaker 1: enough about Suzanne. Long ago and far away you were
Speaker 1: actually in Tehran. Did you ever take a bus like
Speaker 1: the four hour bus south from Tehran to Istefan? Did
Speaker 1: you do that as a kid?
Speaker 2: I visited is Behind several times when I was studying
Speaker 2: in Iran in the late nineteen nineties. I actually flew
Speaker 2: with The flights were very inexpensive at that time and
Speaker 2: very convenient. Is Behind is a phenomenally beautiful historic city,
Speaker 2: but it is obviously proximate to some of the most
Speaker 2: important nuclear lights in the system.
Speaker 1: What's the number one thing we get wrong in our
Speaker 1: perception of the road from Tehran to Istefan.
Speaker 2: I think the fundamental issue that we have is recognizing
Speaker 2: that this is a regime that has staked its existence
Speaker 2: on maintaining some kind of a nuclear infrastructure. They have
Speaker 2: fought for that. They have suffered enormous trillions of dollars
Speaker 2: of damage and sanctions and lost opportunities as a result
Speaker 2: of their determination to maintain that. The President walked away
Speaker 2: from the nuclear deal in twenty eighteen. There were lots
Speaker 2: of critics of that deal, but it is very hard
Speaker 2: to reconstitute any kind of an agreement given all that
Speaker 2: has happened in the in the interim, So this is
Speaker 2: a challenge. The US wants a quick fix, a quick deal,
Speaker 2: a quick end to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaker 2: The Iranians are going to try to continue to maintain
Speaker 2: their choke hold and assert this leverage even after this
Speaker 2: conflict ends.
Speaker 3: Suzanne, What do we know about the people of Iran?
Speaker 3: What do they want? How supportive of the are they
Speaker 3: of this government? Because boy, not just the sanctions as
Speaker 3: you mentioned, but now the blockade I'm sure is wreaking
Speaker 3: tremendous hardship on the people of Iran. What do we
Speaker 3: know about them?
Speaker 2: Well, the Iranian people have been the biggest losers in
Speaker 2: all of these conflicts between their regime and the international community.
Speaker 2: They have suffered immensely, and of course we know that
Speaker 2: thousands went to the streets all around the country on
Speaker 2: multiple occasions, but most recently back in January, demanding regime change,
Speaker 2: a different government. They do not want the theocratic regime
Speaker 2: that imposes so many constraints on their interaction with the world,
Speaker 2: on their own opportunities, they were slaughtered in very large numbers.
Speaker 2: We've documented. Credible organizations have documented seven thousand deaths. Is
Speaker 2: probably two or three times that number at least were
Speaker 2: killed by the regime in order to maintains its hold
Speaker 2: on power. And I think that gives you a sense
Speaker 2: of how determined they are.
Speaker 1: This is the time that we've got I got a
Speaker 1: ways to go here. Let me start with you know
Speaker 1: how I learned about shuttle diploma. We already we already
Speaker 1: Kissinger's diplomacy covered a cover and then he reinvented it
Speaker 1: by getting on airplanes. How do you perceive, as a
Speaker 1: dilomat and someone who believes in international relations, the idea
Speaker 1: that a real estate developer from New York and a
Speaker 1: family member get on a plane to go negotiate like
Speaker 1: this or the Vice President for that matter. Do we
Speaker 1: have a diplomatic industry now negotiating with them we're on
Speaker 1: in this war.
Speaker 2: Well, I believe that the team that was sent to
Speaker 2: Islamabad and was prepared to return did in fact include
Speaker 2: a number of technical experts who would be supporting the
Speaker 2: Leeds Steve Woodcoff, Jared Kushner and Vice President Vance in
Speaker 2: the initial outcome. But truthfully, you know, we are operating
Speaker 2: in very unprecedented times in terms of how we have
Speaker 2: tried to manage these negotiations, and I think we see
Speaker 2: the result of that.
Speaker 1: My answer is my deep read here, Paul is a
Speaker 1: blockade is Russell Kroll on a boat in the Napoleonic Wars.
Speaker 1: It makes for a hell of a good movie. If
Speaker 1: you read back to O'Brien, what does Susan Maloney think
Speaker 1: about the simple word blockade? When we mentioned the Persian
Speaker 1: Gulf and around the south.
Speaker 2: It will certainly hurt Around's economy, But I think most
Speaker 2: experts on Iranian politics and on the regime believe that
Speaker 2: they're prepared to pay the price, and that they have
Speaker 2: over the past forty seven years learned to adapt their
Speaker 2: entire economy. Is based on evading US sanctions and mitigating
Speaker 2: the impact of American economic pressure, and they will look
Speaker 2: for workarounds and they will probably succeed longer than we
Speaker 2: would like them to.
Speaker 3: Given that backdrop, Suzan, and given what we know now
Speaker 3: eight weeks into this, what is a reasonable solution here,
Speaker 3: and what is a reasonable timeframe?
Speaker 2: I think it's critical to reopen the straight up her
Speaker 2: mooves to something resembling pre war traffic. It will take
Speaker 2: some time before we get there, and so the sooner
Speaker 2: we actually agree on some kind of reopening, the closer
Speaker 2: we are to addressing the really big tsunami of economic
Speaker 2: pain that is coming as a result of this closure.
Speaker 1: Susan, let's end with this. Paul had the correct question, like,
Speaker 1: who are It's like Butch Cassidy. I know, Suzanne Maloney
Speaker 1: saw Butch Cassidy. You know you're looking out and you're going,
Speaker 1: who are these guys? Your essay the Third Islamic Republic?
Speaker 1: Are we speaking to the leaders of the Third Islamic Republic?
Speaker 2: We are speaking to the leaders of the Third Islamic Republic.
Speaker 2: They're still trying to make up their minds. But I
Speaker 2: do think that the only way that we can come
Speaker 2: to an end here is through some kind of a
Speaker 2: diplomatic negotiation. And the more that we invest in serious diplomacy,
Speaker 2: the closer will be to a solution.
Speaker 1: Susan, thank you so much. Just thrilled to have you
Speaker 1: in today. Suzann Maloney with us and I will get
Speaker 1: it out on LinkedIn and Twitter folks. Her essay Foreign Affairs,
Speaker 1: a third Islamic Republic is just absolutely definitive. Award's unintended
Speaker 1: consequences for Iran, the Middle East and the global order.
Speaker 1: Suzanne Malone, thank you so much,