WEBVTT - Suzanne Maloney Talks Iran War's Unintended Consequences

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:11.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Suzanne Maloney absolutely definitive

0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:16.440
<v Speaker 1>at Brookings Institute and Foreign Affairs Magazine of piecing together

0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:21.000
<v Speaker 1>where we are in this war? Suzanne, what is your

0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:26.560
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty this morning? And your uncertainty after a presidential tweet

0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:29.880
<v Speaker 1>at four am that frankly could have been out of

0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:31.880
<v Speaker 1>Mad magazine from my childhood.

0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:36.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, I think we're in a very unpredictable

0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:40.640
<v Speaker 2>situation right now. The President and the Iranians appear to

0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:44.240
<v Speaker 2>be in a standoff around who can last longer under

0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:47.760
<v Speaker 2>severe economic pressure. The President is determined to maintain the

0:00:47.800 --> 0:00:53.479
<v Speaker 2>blockade on Iran, preventing them from exporting and earning revenues

0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:56.480
<v Speaker 2>from their oil production, which is the primary source of

0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:59.240
<v Speaker 2>support for the regime and for the country as a whole.

0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.000
<v Speaker 2>The Europeans are determined to maintain their choke hold on

0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.679
<v Speaker 2>the straight of hormones, which we'll have catastrophic implications over time,

0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:09.360
<v Speaker 2>not for oil prices, but for the larger global economy.

0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:13.160
<v Speaker 1>Is and your heritage I'm going to editorialize is realist

0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:17.600
<v Speaker 1>foreign policy of Robert Gates. There's a big new Brazinski

0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:21.480
<v Speaker 1>and others. Do we have a theory right now of

0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:25.600
<v Speaker 1>foreign policy. Are we realist? Are we something else? I

0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.920
<v Speaker 1>don't know? Are we just making it up? Tweet by tweet?

0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think the America First ideology has morphed over

0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:37.440
<v Speaker 2>time under President Trump's first and second terms. At this point,

0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:42.280
<v Speaker 2>it is highly militaristic. It is very much forced first

0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:45.520
<v Speaker 2>as a means of asserting American interests around the world,

0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:50.760
<v Speaker 2>and it is very disinterested in the traditional reliance on

0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:54.360
<v Speaker 2>allies and partners that has been the key to the

0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:58.280
<v Speaker 2>extension of American influence as well as the broader prosperity

0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:02.000
<v Speaker 2>and peace that we've had in the post World War

0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:02.480
<v Speaker 2>two era?

0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.520
<v Speaker 3>Suzanne, do we actually know who is running Iran right now?

0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:10.440
<v Speaker 3>And whoever that is, is that a group that can

0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.720
<v Speaker 3>really negotiate on behalf of the country.

0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:16.120
<v Speaker 2>I think we have a decent sense of the most

0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:19.400
<v Speaker 2>important figures within the regime. They're largely drawn from the

0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:23.239
<v Speaker 2>Revolutionary Guard, but of course we believe that much. Tabahamane,

0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:25.760
<v Speaker 2>the son of the late Supreme Leader, who has killed

0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:28.280
<v Speaker 2>on the first day of the war and then elevated

0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:31.480
<v Speaker 2>to his father's position, is still alive and is still

0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:34.560
<v Speaker 2>helping to shape decision making. This is very much a

0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.040
<v Speaker 2>system now that is driven by hardliners who have been

0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:42.200
<v Speaker 2>at the forefront of Iran's most damaging and violent policies

0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.600
<v Speaker 2>over the course of the past forty seven years. And

0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:49.560
<v Speaker 2>they are not individuals who are particularly prone to compromise

0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.640
<v Speaker 2>or to reconciliation with the United States or Israel.

0:02:54.600 --> 0:03:01.440
<v Speaker 3>So President Trump portrays the leadership in Iran is in flux, failing.

0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:05.160
<v Speaker 3>Maybe is that accurate?

0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:05.639
<v Speaker 1>Do you think?

0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.160
<v Speaker 3>Again? It just kind of goes to the question of

0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:11.840
<v Speaker 3>can the United States negotiate in good faith with whomever

0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:12.320
<v Speaker 3>is there.

0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.640
<v Speaker 2>Look, Iran has always had a kind of diversity of

0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:20.399
<v Speaker 2>factions within a system and really bociferous debates about both

0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.280
<v Speaker 2>its foreign policy and its domestic policy. That isn't new,

0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:26.320
<v Speaker 2>and it's not surprising that in the aftermath of the

0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:30.320
<v Speaker 2>elimination of the senior echelons of the clergy as well

0:03:30.360 --> 0:03:34.120
<v Speaker 2>as the security bureaucracy, that we're seeing at least some

0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:38.040
<v Speaker 2>questions about how decisions are being made in different positions.

0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:41.800
<v Speaker 2>I don't think that that is fundamentally it makes it

0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:44.200
<v Speaker 2>impossible for us to negotiate with Iran. It has always

0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:47.320
<v Speaker 2>been complicated, It has always required a high degree of

0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.640
<v Speaker 2>focus and patience from the international community to achieve any

0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.840
<v Speaker 2>clear outcomes with Iran. I think the challenge that we

0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.840
<v Speaker 2>face is not the internal politics, but the sense within

0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.360
<v Speaker 2>the regime that they have the upper hand and the

0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:01.680
<v Speaker 2>time is on their side.

0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:05.560
<v Speaker 1>Suzanne Maloney with US Folks a definitive on this study

0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:09.040
<v Speaker 1>of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant. She's a Brookings

0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:14.960
<v Speaker 1>Institution and of course writing for foreign policy as well

0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.640
<v Speaker 1>as foreign affairs, I should say, which I can't say

0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:22.080
<v Speaker 1>enough about Suzanne. Long ago and far away you were

0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:25.120
<v Speaker 1>actually in Tehran. Did you ever take a bus like

0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:29.080
<v Speaker 1>the four hour bus south from Tehran to Istefan? Did

0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:30.159
<v Speaker 1>you do that as a kid?

0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:34.360
<v Speaker 2>I visited is Behind several times when I was studying

0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.320
<v Speaker 2>in Iran in the late nineteen nineties. I actually flew

0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:40.400
<v Speaker 2>with The flights were very inexpensive at that time and

0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.440
<v Speaker 2>very convenient. Is Behind is a phenomenally beautiful historic city,

0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:47.520
<v Speaker 2>but it is obviously proximate to some of the most

0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.320
<v Speaker 2>important nuclear lights in the system.

0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:53.880
<v Speaker 1>What's the number one thing we get wrong in our

0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:57.200
<v Speaker 1>perception of the road from Tehran to Istefan.

0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.440
<v Speaker 2>I think the fundamental issue that we have is recognizing

0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:05.599
<v Speaker 2>that this is a regime that has staked its existence

0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.800
<v Speaker 2>on maintaining some kind of a nuclear infrastructure. They have

0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:12.240
<v Speaker 2>fought for that. They have suffered enormous trillions of dollars

0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.280
<v Speaker 2>of damage and sanctions and lost opportunities as a result

0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:18.840
<v Speaker 2>of their determination to maintain that. The President walked away

0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:20.960
<v Speaker 2>from the nuclear deal in twenty eighteen. There were lots

0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.520
<v Speaker 2>of critics of that deal, but it is very hard

0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.719
<v Speaker 2>to reconstitute any kind of an agreement given all that

0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.880
<v Speaker 2>has happened in the in the interim, So this is

0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:32.719
<v Speaker 2>a challenge. The US wants a quick fix, a quick deal,

0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.680
<v Speaker 2>a quick end to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.360
<v Speaker 2>The Iranians are going to try to continue to maintain

0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:42.320
<v Speaker 2>their choke hold and assert this leverage even after this

0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:43.360
<v Speaker 2>conflict ends.

0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:47.200
<v Speaker 3>Suzanne, What do we know about the people of Iran?

0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:51.520
<v Speaker 3>What do they want? How supportive of the are they

0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.840
<v Speaker 3>of this government? Because boy, not just the sanctions as

0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:56.640
<v Speaker 3>you mentioned, but now the blockade I'm sure is wreaking

0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.800
<v Speaker 3>tremendous hardship on the people of Iran. What do we

0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:01.000
<v Speaker 3>know about them?

0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.880
<v Speaker 2>Well, the Iranian people have been the biggest losers in

0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:09.000
<v Speaker 2>all of these conflicts between their regime and the international community.

0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:12.240
<v Speaker 2>They have suffered immensely, and of course we know that

0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.120
<v Speaker 2>thousands went to the streets all around the country on

0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:19.919
<v Speaker 2>multiple occasions, but most recently back in January, demanding regime change,

0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:23.160
<v Speaker 2>a different government. They do not want the theocratic regime

0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:27.000
<v Speaker 2>that imposes so many constraints on their interaction with the world,

0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:31.000
<v Speaker 2>on their own opportunities, they were slaughtered in very large numbers.

0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:36.240
<v Speaker 2>We've documented. Credible organizations have documented seven thousand deaths. Is

0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:38.800
<v Speaker 2>probably two or three times that number at least were

0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.640
<v Speaker 2>killed by the regime in order to maintains its hold

0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:43.960
<v Speaker 2>on power. And I think that gives you a sense

0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:45.920
<v Speaker 2>of how determined they are.

0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:48.280
<v Speaker 1>This is the time that we've got I got a

0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.520
<v Speaker 1>ways to go here. Let me start with you know

0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.440
<v Speaker 1>how I learned about shuttle diploma. We already we already

0:06:54.520 --> 0:06:58.000
<v Speaker 1>Kissinger's diplomacy covered a cover and then he reinvented it

0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:02.560
<v Speaker 1>by getting on airplanes. How do you perceive, as a

0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:08.560
<v Speaker 1>dilomat and someone who believes in international relations, the idea

0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:11.880
<v Speaker 1>that a real estate developer from New York and a

0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.800
<v Speaker 1>family member get on a plane to go negotiate like

0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.680
<v Speaker 1>this or the Vice President for that matter. Do we

0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:21.720
<v Speaker 1>have a diplomatic industry now negotiating with them we're on

0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:22.600
<v Speaker 1>in this war.

0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.120
<v Speaker 2>Well, I believe that the team that was sent to

0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.040
<v Speaker 2>Islamabad and was prepared to return did in fact include

0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:32.200
<v Speaker 2>a number of technical experts who would be supporting the

0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:36.320
<v Speaker 2>Leeds Steve Woodcoff, Jared Kushner and Vice President Vance in

0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:40.720
<v Speaker 2>the initial outcome. But truthfully, you know, we are operating

0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.400
<v Speaker 2>in very unprecedented times in terms of how we have

0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:47.040
<v Speaker 2>tried to manage these negotiations, and I think we see

0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:47.800
<v Speaker 2>the result of that.

0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:51.080
<v Speaker 1>My answer is my deep read here, Paul is a

0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:55.560
<v Speaker 1>blockade is Russell Kroll on a boat in the Napoleonic Wars.

0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:57.600
<v Speaker 1>It makes for a hell of a good movie. If

0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:00.840
<v Speaker 1>you read back to O'Brien, what does Susan Maloney think

0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:04.960
<v Speaker 1>about the simple word blockade? When we mentioned the Persian

0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:06.760
<v Speaker 1>Gulf and around the south.

0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:11.520
<v Speaker 2>It will certainly hurt Around's economy, But I think most

0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:16.400
<v Speaker 2>experts on Iranian politics and on the regime believe that

0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:18.400
<v Speaker 2>they're prepared to pay the price, and that they have

0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:21.040
<v Speaker 2>over the past forty seven years learned to adapt their

0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.920
<v Speaker 2>entire economy. Is based on evading US sanctions and mitigating

0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:28.760
<v Speaker 2>the impact of American economic pressure, and they will look

0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:31.920
<v Speaker 2>for workarounds and they will probably succeed longer than we

0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:32.720
<v Speaker 2>would like them to.

0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.200
<v Speaker 3>Given that backdrop, Suzan, and given what we know now

0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:42.160
<v Speaker 3>eight weeks into this, what is a reasonable solution here,

0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:44.400
<v Speaker 3>and what is a reasonable timeframe?

0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.240
<v Speaker 2>I think it's critical to reopen the straight up her

0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:52.280
<v Speaker 2>mooves to something resembling pre war traffic. It will take

0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:54.400
<v Speaker 2>some time before we get there, and so the sooner

0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.480
<v Speaker 2>we actually agree on some kind of reopening, the closer

0:08:57.520 --> 0:09:01.400
<v Speaker 2>we are to addressing the really big tsunami of economic

0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.600
<v Speaker 2>pain that is coming as a result of this closure.

0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.480
<v Speaker 1>Susan, let's end with this. Paul had the correct question, like,

0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:09.880
<v Speaker 1>who are It's like Butch Cassidy. I know, Suzanne Maloney

0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:12.439
<v Speaker 1>saw Butch Cassidy. You know you're looking out and you're going,

0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:17.599
<v Speaker 1>who are these guys? Your essay the Third Islamic Republic?

0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:22.319
<v Speaker 1>Are we speaking to the leaders of the Third Islamic Republic?

0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.400
<v Speaker 2>We are speaking to the leaders of the Third Islamic Republic.

0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:28.880
<v Speaker 2>They're still trying to make up their minds. But I

0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:31.199
<v Speaker 2>do think that the only way that we can come

0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:33.120
<v Speaker 2>to an end here is through some kind of a

0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:37.599
<v Speaker 2>diplomatic negotiation. And the more that we invest in serious diplomacy,

0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:38.960
<v Speaker 2>the closer will be to a solution.

0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.480
<v Speaker 1>Susan, thank you so much. Just thrilled to have you

0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.559
<v Speaker 1>in today. Suzann Maloney with us and I will get

0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:48.920
<v Speaker 1>it out on LinkedIn and Twitter folks. Her essay Foreign Affairs,

0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:53.760
<v Speaker 1>a third Islamic Republic is just absolutely definitive. Award's unintended

0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:58.480
<v Speaker 1>consequences for Iran, the Middle East and the global order.

0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:01.720
<v Speaker 1>Suzanne Malone, thank you so much,