WEBVTT - LA Wildfires Burn Out of Control 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:13.440 Week Insight from the reporters and editors that bring you 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:18.400 America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.880 tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Masser 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:25.920 and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:30.080 Looking at the CalFire website right now, ninety two wildfires 0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:34.519 have burned twenty nine thousand, fifty three acres five fatalities 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:38.040 as of now in Los Angeles County are our live 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:41.080 blog pointing out the Palisades Fire and the Eton Fire 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.479 continue to be out of control, while that Hearst fires 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.960 ten percent contained and the fire and Running Canyon is 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.040 currently out of control. Joining us now with Moore is 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.680 will Wade, power and renewable energy reporter. He joins us 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:55.920 here in the Bloomberg Business Week Studio. Will you write 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.320 about power? You write about renewable energy, the connection to climate. 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:01.920 What do you think about when you see a situation 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.040 like this unfold in Los Angeles? What's top of mind 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:04.280 for you? 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:07.160 Well, it's top of mind is that it's just a 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:11.240 huge tragedy and we're going to see more of these. 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.520 I mean look, I grew up partly in southern California. 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.000 I grew up partly in Pasadena. I know this area. 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:20.360 I know those winds. Every fall they'd start coming in 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.800 from the east and you'd smell smoke when the hills 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.440 catch on fire. That's that's just normal. But let me 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.760 hit you with the number seventy eight. Okay, I just 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:33.000 saw this stat today. There are seventy eight more fire 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:36.640 days in California these days than there were fifty years ago. 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:38.280 What's a fire day? 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:40.759 A day when there's a when there's a big wildfire burning. 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:44.240 So it's a fire the size of something that actually something. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.160 It's something big enough to get measured and noticed and 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:47.800 cause problems. 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:49.520 So make the connection for us? What does that mean? 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:52.640 Why is that it's a climate change thing? This is 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:56.440 comparing you know how dry the hills get. I mean 0:01:56.480 --> 0:02:00.600 in California it mostly rains in the winter, and over 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.080 the course of the summer, the hills get baked dry. 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.360 It's nothing but tender and fuel for fires. Once they start, 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:09.239 they get really out of control. But now it's hotter, 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:14.320 it's drier, there's less rain, so there's more fuel. Once 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.919 it starts that they're hard to bring in under control. 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.639 I mean, well, that's the point, right that, in other words, 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:23.320 we'll find out ultimately what started or caused this fire, 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:27.880 but the underlying conditions of the dryness, right and just 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.840 make it right for these intense and very destructive fires. 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:33.640 And that's the result of climate change. 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:34.720 That's exactly right. 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.160 So you know, it's interesting, you know, we're kind of 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:41.640 this meld, if you will, of politics as we honor 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:44.280 and remember former President Jimmy Carter and thinking about his 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:47.359 policies and talking about, you know, the environment in the 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:49.840 late seventies and the importance of it, and here we 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.560 are watching these fires out on the West coast. We 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:55.040 have a lot of conversations with you. You know what, 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.239 again is the narrative as we get ready for a 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:00.000 change in the White House and we're talking policy, and Joe, 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:02.680 you're saying, not likely that that's going to be a 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:06.280 priority in terms of climate change initiatives. Is there any 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:09.800 interesting narratives that kind of give you hope that things 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.080 can get better or at least slow down. 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:16.200 I'm really concerned that the new administration is going to 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:19.400 not be supportive of climate policies. Certainly, we have no 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:23.480 evidence that Trump is a supporter of climate policies. As 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.799 he comes in, he could throw the brakes on policies. 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:31.480 He could reverse some policies. It's going to be turbulent. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.760 What about the business environment and business leaders and other 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:36.760 leaders who either you know, a lot of times we 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:38.560 take our cues from what's going on in Europe in 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.240 terms of products and safety and so on and so forth, 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.520 or even social media or something like that. But a 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.800 business that might be in California and has to think 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:51.880 about fires that they maybe more embrace greener alternatives because 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:54.680 they understand that it kind of has to do with 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.200 the existence of their own business and their future. 0:03:57.480 --> 0:03:59.360 You know, certainly we saw that in the first Trouble. 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:01.160 Which was supposed to be I think kind of the 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.880 whole idea of it. But well, put that on the 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:04.400 side for now. 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:06.120 But do you know what I'm saying. Yeah, I mean, 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.560 in the first Trump administration, even as Washington was not 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.560 being a leader in climate policy, a lot of states 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.480 and cities were taking the initiative and a lot of 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:19.960 businesses were definitely enacting green policies because they could see 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:23.640 that it was in their financial interests to try and 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:27.040 curb carbon divisions, and it wasn't just for the optics 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.120 and the politics of saying we're a green company. It's 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:31.680 because they could see how it affected their business. 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:36.240 Stately, California, fifth largest economy in the world. It has 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.919 the power to do that. But can states do this 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:42.839 stuff without help from the federal government if administration doesn't 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:44.720 want to actually do those things. 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.120 States have the power. You know, states have their own 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:49.240 decisions that they can make. 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:51.200 Do they have the money, do they have the funds, 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.400 do they have the resources to do it? 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:55.160 It's a challenge. 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.040 It is a challenge. It is I'm right now I'm 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.480 looking at New York State, which twenty nineteen enacted one 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:06.080 of the most ambitious climate policies in the nation, and 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.719 now we're taking stock and it's not clear if they're 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:12.360 going to make those goals. So the states have power, 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.240 but it's not easy, and it's certainly like in the past. 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:16.920 You know, we've been talking the past year and a 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:20.360 half here about inflation making everything more expensive, and all 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:23.479 of a sudden, these green goals are more costly and 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:25.840 people are becoming more concerned about that. 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:27.880 I just want to mention from the live blog that's 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:31.640 tracking the LA Wildfires. Mayor Karen Bass saying, thanks to 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.280 the bravery and collaboration of the LA Fire Department, this 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:39.480 Sunset fire is fully contained. She is messaging her citizens, 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.719 if you're returning home, please drive slowly, watch the road. 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:44.200 Firefighters are still working in some damaged areas, and we 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:46.760 know that that is continuing. Just back to kind of 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:51.000 alternative energy. We talk about AI, generative AI all of 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:55.159 the power that's needed for that. Joe Biden's administration, President 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:57.920 Joe Biden's administration, we got a story a couple of 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:01.440 days ago looking to push for geothermal as a key 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:05.320 energy source. Any of you chuckle, any of these, I mean, 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:07.400 any of it or nuclear? All of this is going 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:08.240 to take time. 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:10.760 Right, Yeah, I mean I liked YOUO thermal. I'm a 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:15.000 fan of geothermal. Traditionally, you can only do it in 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:16.040 certain parts of the world. 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:18.080 Iceland does a lot of it, right, you have to. 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.640 Be in an area that has a lot of geothermal activity. 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:25.600 There's actually a big spot called the Geysers in central California. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.160 There's a push for like the new kind of geothermal 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:33.080 where you dig down until you can top the hot rocks. 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:37.600 So there's some promise there I think we'll see more geothermal, 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:39.360 but I don't know that it's going to be big 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.960 enough to be a massive mainstream thing. But it's just, 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:44.800 you know, one of many options. 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.320 Of the alternatives, just twenty seconds of the alternatives. You 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.080 look at each and every day, which one is the 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:49.799 most promising? 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.680 You know, I'm a big fan of nuclear. I'm always 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:53.640 I'm always right about news. 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:54.880 But that's going to take time too. 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.560 It's very slow. That's a problem in fusion. But things 0:06:58.800 --> 0:06:59.200 take time. 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.520 Sorry, Carol, we don't time to talk about nuclear waste, 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.560 which is Carrol's favorite topic when we talk about nuclear and. 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.440 Nim always said nobody wants to talk about that. 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:07.800 He always keeps us real with me. 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:10.920 Just going to say, we'll wade. Thank you, always always 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:14.200 will wade. Of course our power and renewable energy editor, 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.520 so appreciate getting his input. Continue to track the fire. 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:21.080 Five people have died, more than twenty nine thousand acres 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:23.440 have burned. Will continue to keep you updated on that, 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.280 and continuing to think about former President Jimmy Carter. On 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:28.680 this Thursday, this is Bloomberg. 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:33.520 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.600 Live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during listen 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:40.200 on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:44.480 or watch us live on YouTube, and. 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:46.920 We're going to stay on former President Jimmy Carter and 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:49.560 really the policies that today continue to impact our world, 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:51.080 things that he worked on with us. 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:53.920 Now is Terry Haynes, Founder at Pangaea Policy. It's an 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:58.080 independent and international political and policy forecasting firm for financial 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:00.960 markets and investors. Terry has a more than a handful 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.480 of presidents held high level US government posts, serving both 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:08.080 the private and public sectors. Terry joins us from Washington, 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:10.120 d c. Terry, top of mind for you as we 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:13.240 get ready as a nation to later rest the thirty 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:17.280 ninth President of the United States too his final resting place. 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:18.320 What's top of mind for you? 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:21.000 Well, a couple of things. You know. 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:24.600 I'm a little too young to have been in Washington 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:26.800 during the Carter years. I came in the Reagan days, 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:31.240 but I knew a lot of the top people and 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:33.120 worked with a lot of the top people in the 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:38.080 Carter administration, most prominently his Press secretary Jody Powell. I 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:40.720 worked with stu Isa said a bunch of other people 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:44.199 that served in high levels in those administrations had a 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:46.400 lot of conversations with him over the years, as well 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:49.520 as the people that were in Congress. My top of 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:53.360 mind really is, firstly, politicians too often are little more 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:56.360 than their ambition. You could never accuse Carter of that. 0:08:56.440 --> 0:09:01.280 He was hugely ambitious, but very grounded. He had a 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.080 very useful life, wanted to have a useful life. That's 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:08.040 been discussed a lot, so I won't belabor it. Even 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.640 though he was president nearly half his life ago, he 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:15.520 was model of He was a model and interestingly Richard 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:20.400 Nixon of what a post president's world looked like and 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.560 how they could be useful. And Carter really led in 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:28.000 that regard. And finally, I would say that the Carter presidency, 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:30.120 in a lot of ways, picking up on what Carol said, 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:33.000 is really a hinge to the world that we have today, 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:39.320 and nowhere more than the fact that markets ought to 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:43.319 be thanking Carter every day for taking on inflation, slaying 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.440 inflation in the United States, bringing Paul Volker into the 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:50.679 Federal Reserve, pushing that at great cost to his presidency. 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:55.920 Reagan also kept vulgar on those policies at some cost 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.400 to his own. But that was all Carter, and that 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:03.240 took a lot of guts and determination and really kind 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.439 of epitomized, you know, both for good and bad, the 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:10.600 kind of president he was, stubborn, determined, dedicated to seeing 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:12.439 it through. So pats off to him. 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.599 Yeah, there was I think mention Terry in one of 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:20.360 the eulogies about his thinking long term, right, that he 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.800 wasn't necessarily thinking about reelection or getting a second term, 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.280 but he was thinking about the longer term impact, be 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.800 it on the United States or more globally on the world. 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:32.839 Yeah, it's said that one of the surest ways to 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.040 get on Carter's bad side was to mention that some 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:39.800 initiative or another would be negative for his reelection prospects. 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:43.280 I can tell you secondhand anyway through the people that 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:46.520 I knew who worked for him, that that's true. But 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.280 you know, whether it be that, whether it be the 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:54.839 energy policy, or of many many other things that went 0:10:54.880 --> 0:11:00.080 on in the Carter administration. He was very determined to 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:03.040 kind of move the country in a particular direction. He 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:07.520 found out very quickly, I think, to his detriment that 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:11.200 you know, the presidency has limits and that he needed 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:14.520 to work more with the public, work more with Congress, 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.360 to get more in the direction that he wanted. But 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:22.719 he certainly achieved a lot and at worst started a 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:25.679 lot of conversations and was on the right side of 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:26.959 history with a lot of those as well. 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:28.880 Point out, well, let's talk about some of those things. 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:32.680 Carol and David Gera. We were just speaking about climate 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:34.680 change and the fact that Jimmy Carter was talking about 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:37.559 climate change at a time when nobody was talking about 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:41.800 climate change. During his memorial today we heard different aspects 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:46.800 of deregulated markets come up, the beer industry, the airlines, 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:50.679 for example. What are his legacies that we're still talking 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:52.319 about today that are still present today. 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:55.080 Oh, it's there are a lot of them. 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:55.680 You know. 0:11:55.760 --> 0:12:00.319 The energy is one of them, and on issues energy 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.880 is one, certainly domestically. 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:05.160 Energy. 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.240 You know, for the first time there was a focus 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:11.199 on domestic energy production and consumption U and that was 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.079 a double edged sword for Carter and for his administration 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:17.880 because you know, as it was noted before, he was 0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:21.439 really mocked for that. But there was a double edged 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:25.400 sword because the intrusion into daily lives that Carter perceived 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.760 to be necessary was very much resented by people who 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:30.760 a few years ago didn't have to think about any 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.800 of those things at all. You know, there's a lesson. 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:38.040 There's a lesson there for any future, any succeeding president, 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.400 which is, you know, you've got to bring the public along, 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.440 You've got to bring Congress along as you're trying to 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:47.520 accomplish things. Foreign policy legacy is hugely ambitious and mixed, 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:50.840 can't be able to accords of course are his greatest 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.640 success there. But at the same time, the the Iranian 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:59.840 hostage situation and Russia's incursion into Afghanistan created a situation 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:03.760 where the United States, fairly or not, was perceived to 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.520 have been weaker at the end of his presidency than 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:09.760 it was at the beginning. And that was difficult for him, 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:15.840 in part because I think that wasn't entirely deserved. Human rights, 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.720 both on its own and as an attack on Soviet 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:22.560 legitimacy was very important, and as I say, you know, 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.840 the monetary policy legacy and the economic legacy, I think 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:27.280 there's a touch of time. 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.320 All right, we'renna leave it there. Terry Haynes, thank you 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.400 so much, really appreciate your thoughts on this. Founder of 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.600 penjea Policy. Joining us from DC. 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.480 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.520 weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple Coarflay, and 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.560 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:50.319 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.520 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:57.520 All right, everybody, you are listening and watching Bloomberg Business. 0:13:57.520 --> 0:13:59.720 We Carol Masser along with Tim Stanovick. A lot going 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.520 on and on this Thursday, January ninth, you know, the 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:04.600 stock market has closed, the bond market closed at two 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.800 pm Wall Street time. We have a guest that has 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:10.640 seen a lot of different market and economic cycles under 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.400 several different administrations. So we're kind of tying our world 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:17.080 together here. Louis Navalier's chairman and founder at Navalier and Associates. 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.920 He joins us from Florida. Louis is good to have 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.040 you here. I'm trying to think where I want to start, 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.600 because it feels like, you know, we're thinking a lot 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.560 about the US as a country, about leadership because of 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:32.160 the state funeral a former president, Jimmy Carter, and I 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.240 kind of want to start there. I think you got 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:37.120 your undergrad and business administration in seventy eight, your MBA 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:40.120 in finance in seventy nine. Take us back, what do 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.440 you think about that time and era and what it 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:46.320 was like to be a leader a president at that moment. 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:49.120 It was super difficult. 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:51.440 I actually worked for the Federal Home owned Bank in 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.840 San Francisco at the time, and we have this inverted 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:59.200 yield curve and the banking failure, and of course with 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:03.040 Paul Volker and they were experimenting with monetrazation and all 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.360 that stuff. But it was really hard for Jimmy Carter 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:10.080 because we had rampid inflation and he was still fighting that. 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.560 You know, prior to Carter, we had the Nixon price 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:16.800 controls and. 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.040 And that really hurt him. 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:22.880 The stock market went up in his four year term, 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.160 went up, I think almost forty five, but net of inflation, 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:30.680 it lost ground. So he didn't have the most spectacular 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.120 economic oversight. But a lot of it was just luck. 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:39.640 You know, it's a poor guy, you know, he's obviously 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.360 it was a wonderful person. And and then you know, 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:47.640 I still remember when he addressed the nation. We had 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:50.160 we had an energy crisis, and we had high energy prices. 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:53.480 He was wearing a sweater because he was telling us 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.880 we need to turn our thermostat down. And I think 0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.640 at that time the view of the world was more 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:02.800 status and then obviously Ronald Reagan became the next president. 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:08.760 He was more upbeat, and. 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:09.800 It's we're kind of a similar situation now. 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:12.800 We you know, we got to defeat the inflation that 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:18.600 that reappeared probably was mostly stimulus related, and then once 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.040 we defeat the inflation, we got to be more upbeat 0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:22.040 and try to grow. 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:24.760 Look at us as a static economy. 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:26.840 You know, it's interesting. First of all, I was telling 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:28.520 my daughter to put a speeder on you either too. 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:30.200 I'm like, I'm not kicking up the heat anymore, like 0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:32.600 it's cold out, like put a speeder on. One thing 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:34.600 I want to stick with, though, is the appointment of 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.920 Paul Volker as Chairman of the FED, someone who we 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:41.080 look back as an iconic FED share at this moment 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:43.360 in time and kind of goes down in history on that. 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:47.880 Steward Eisenstat, President Carter's domestic policy adviser gaven eulogy this 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:51.680 morning at the Washington National Cathedral, and he commented on 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.960 that difficult decision of appointing Vulgar all. 0:16:54.920 --> 0:17:00.880 Were the objection of all of his advass He chose 0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:05.400 Paul Voker to lead the Federal Reserves, knowing in advance 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:11.119 that Voker's tough monetary policy would raise interest rates and 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:15.080 unemployment because Paul told him that and would do so 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:20.520 in a presidential election. Yurope, you take care of the economy, Paul, 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:22.320 I'll take care of the politics. 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:25.760 That, of course, is Stuart Eisenstadt this morning from the 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:31.320 Washington National Cathedral giving a eulogy Stuart Eis Eisenstadt. Excuse me, 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:35.320 President Carter's former domestic policy advisor. Heyis we're talking with 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:38.720 Louis Navalier. The importance of putting someone in place who 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:41.400 would do some hard stuff Paul Volker did. He raised 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:45.680 rates with a political costs to then President Jimmy Carter. 0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:47.520 You know, I think about the time we are in 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.160 right now, or even what we've seen from Jay Powell. 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:54.120 I mean, the importance of that independent FED doing what's 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:58.960 necessary when it comes to monetary policy and ensuring a 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:03.240 stable economy. It's important, super important. How do you think 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:05.080 about it in today's day in time? 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:08.600 Well, first of all, our FED is not going to 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:09.400 do what Volker did. 0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:12.920 I mean, Volker went from twenty percent to eight and 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:16.680 a half percent back up to twenty percent in one year. 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:19.800 And there was I still remember there was a home 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.000 builder in front of Congress asking for Volker's head on 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:23.560 a platter. 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:26.200 So the good news it broke inflation. 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:29.720 The bad news is that it came at a horrible 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.639 cost of economy. So we're obviously much better shape right now. 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:37.359 I think obviously the FED is going to continue to cut. 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:39.879 I personally think they're going to cut four times because 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:41.960 rates are going to be collapsing in Europe and we're 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:45.920 going to have this global rate crash in twenty twenty five. 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:47.399 We already see it in China. 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:51.359 China's bonniles are lower than Japan, and it looks like 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:53.080 China is going to be the new Japan for the 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:57.399 next couple decades. And it's demographically driven. It's hard to 0:18:57.400 --> 0:19:01.240 grow your economy when you're shrinking in population. And that's 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:04.200 not only China, that's all Europe and UH and much 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:05.080 of the rest of the world. 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:09.399 Is that is that also a risk the US with 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:10.600 a crackdown on immigration. 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:14.720 I don't think they'll deport people that have jobs. I 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:18.680 can't imagine they'll do that. Obviously, they want to deport 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:21.320 criminals and gang members and all that stuff. 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:23.080 But I think if you have a. 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.520 Job in America, it's going to be very hard to 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.200 be deported unless you committed some sort of crime. 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:32.080 So it's just, uh, I just can't imagine. 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.000 You know, the Tyson Foods, the Hormale foods, they get 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:37.800 a lot of the illegals and they make them legal. 0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:40.399 You know, they work for them, they process their paperwork 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:40.680 and all. 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.960 So I just can't imagine they would do that because 0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:47.520 Trump would do that because it make chicken prices go up. 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:49.760 We already have chicken prices up because the bird flew 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:54.120 out west. We don't need to have more chicken inflation. Yeah. 0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:57.359 I do own two A companies though, so I'm very happy. 0:19:57.400 --> 0:20:01.240 One I already announced, Mae Talmane one of them. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:02.760 And Vital Farms is the next one. 0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:05.840 That's organic eggs in Austin, Texas. 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:07.680 So if you want your chickens to live a happier life, 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:09.320 I order their eggs, but they're more money. 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:10.719 I do, but I have to take a mortgage out 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:12.680 to buy eggs. Right now, I'm just going to put 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:14.600 that out there. I mean, how are you looking at 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:17.360 today's market environment? I think we're trying to figure out. 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:20.080 I think there's a lot of questions about what ultimately 0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.119 we heard on the campaign trail from Donald Trump, the 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:25.760 president elect. You know, how much comes to fruition and 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:28.280 what it means in terms of tariff's, taxes, you know, 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:32.280 regulatory and so on. I don't know. Do you feel 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:34.760 like your crystal ball is clear for twenty twenty five? 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:39.159 Yeah? I do. I think Trump is very simple. 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:42.360 He just likes to win, and he likes to put 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:44.840 you in an uncomfortable position when he negotiates. 0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:47.800 But I think he'll be making a deal with everybody. 0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:49.040