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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're up for running a game so smoothe

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Speaker 1: so sweet, slipid sisting, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm

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Speaker 1: looking for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of

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Speaker 1: the time. How shot with that shop with mind bog buddy,

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Speaker 1: And that's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at

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Speaker 1: his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody

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Speaker 1: picture them. Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: Again. The one it's left too, the wide eyed drill fiffus,

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Speaker 1: How old earth big that happens? Hello and welcome to

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Speaker 1: another episode of Wonder Goal, presented by the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am your host today BJ Cunningham, Michael Lee buff

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Speaker 1: will be out for an episode, so it'll be my

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Speaker 1: and my good friend and colleague Anthony Dubundo taking across

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Speaker 1: the European landscape, breaking down the entire weekend slate of

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Speaker 1: Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga Syria and even League on matches.

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Speaker 1: But we have to start in the Premier League and

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Speaker 1: there's really only one place that we can start. It's

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Speaker 1: on Saturday at twelve thirty Eastern time. Manchester City League

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Speaker 1: leaders Manchester City are hosting Tottenham. Manchester City is sitting

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Speaker 1: at minus three seventy with Tottenham sitting at eleven to

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Speaker 1: one on the money line, with the draw at plus

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Speaker 1: four seventy five. Anthony, I'll start with you as our

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Speaker 1: resident Spurs fan on this podcast. Tottenham's obviously lost three straight.

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Speaker 1: The top four battle has become an incredibly interesting with

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Speaker 1: those three losses. Man City seems to be on cruise

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Speaker 1: control right now with the eight point lead at the

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Speaker 1: top of the table. Do you think that this is

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Speaker 1: a potential by low spot for your Spurs going to

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Speaker 1: the ethiad to take on a red hot Manchester City squad.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. And you know, Manchester City is obviously

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Speaker 2: the best team in the league. They have the most

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Speaker 2: impressive numbers and you look at expected goals and they're

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Speaker 2: likely to win this league. But Tottenham have been a

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Speaker 2: bit of a bogie team for them in recent years.

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Speaker 2: Ask any City fan, they'll tell you this is just

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Speaker 2: for some reason. You know, Tottenham's ability to hit on

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Speaker 2: the counter with Cain and Son has given this defense

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Speaker 2: a lot of trouble. And you can even go back

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Speaker 2: to Opening Day that was a long time ago. These

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Speaker 2: two teams were in very different situations. Spurs had a

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Speaker 2: different manager, Kane didn't even play in that match, but

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Speaker 2: even still, you know Son and Mora's ability to find

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Speaker 2: space I think really bothers this City defense and they've

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Speaker 2: caused a lot of problems. They won that game one nil,

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Speaker 2: a little bit lucky, as they tend to always be

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Speaker 2: when they play City on these expected goal situations. But

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Speaker 2: you know, when you create over one expected goal and

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Speaker 2: win the game against City, you know you've done something right.

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Speaker 2: And yes, they've lost three straight games, but I think

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Speaker 2: Conti is going to make some adjustments here, and they've

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Speaker 2: gone to the two man midfield for the majority of

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Speaker 2: those three games and they've kind of been overrun at times.

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Speaker 2: Harry Winks and Hoybert is quite enough in the midfield

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Speaker 2: to sustain it, and Kante switched to a three man

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Speaker 2: midfield about the thirtieth minute after a disastrous opening thirty

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Speaker 2: against Wolves, and they played a lot better. If you

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Speaker 2: look at the overall box entry numbers in that Wolves game,

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Speaker 2: it was something like thirty one to fourteen, So Spurs

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Speaker 2: still created and controlled a lot of that match. It

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Speaker 2: was just a very weird start included some bad misses

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Speaker 2: from Kane and Koulasewski and some poor goalkeeping play from

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Speaker 2: Hugo Laris, which is all pretty uncharacteristic. This Tottenham team

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Speaker 2: still has a ton of attacking regression coming. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: just goin to repeat that every week for the next month,

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Speaker 2: and they're going to you know, Kane and Son are

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Speaker 2: historically two of the best finishers in the league. That's

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Speaker 2: not going to continue to be in the slump that

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Speaker 2: they've been in. I think they'll be able to find

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Speaker 2: some success on the counter here and the back three

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Speaker 2: with Romero. Romero likes to step up a lot and

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Speaker 2: be aggressive. He's one of the most aggressive, you know,

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Speaker 2: full back or center backs in the world. That works

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Speaker 2: more in this matchup, I think because City don't really

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Speaker 2: have a true striker who's occupying those spaces. So I

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Speaker 2: don't hate the Spurs team total over a half is

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Speaker 2: minus one ten. I think there's a good chance they

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Speaker 2: score here, but I personally have already played the plus

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Speaker 2: one and a half at plus one oh five, I

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Speaker 2: just think it's a little bit steep, and even though

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Speaker 2: they're on the road at the ft had it's a

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Speaker 2: it's a weird spot for City coming off the Champions League,

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Speaker 2: So I think Tottenham will be more arrested and they'll

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Speaker 2: they'll be all in here following three straight losses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. If I had to play

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Speaker 1: something here, I'd probably play Tottenham. I'm ultimately going to

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Speaker 1: pass because it's just hard to play against Manchester City

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Speaker 1: at this time. I kind of learned my lesson in

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Speaker 1: the midweek against Sporting trying to take them plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half. It's really hard, especially for a team

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Speaker 1: like Tottenham or a bigger side who's you know, majority

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Speaker 1: of the time they play throughout the season. They're used

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Speaker 1: to having the ball and being a more possession dominant side.

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Speaker 1: Obviously they have experience when they have to play against

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Speaker 1: some of these bigger sides like man City or Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. But with how dominant City has been with

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Speaker 1: their possession, it's really hard for a team with this

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Speaker 1: much you know, talent and everything to say, hey, we're

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Speaker 1: going to sit back for essentially two thirds of the

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Speaker 1: match in our own half and try to defend and

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Speaker 1: look at him on the counter. Cottenam's obviously capable of

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Speaker 1: doing that. Then they've you know, shown in the past

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Speaker 1: they've been able to do with the City, but it's

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Speaker 1: a really difficult way to play and you kind of

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Speaker 1: saw that with Real Madrid in the match against PSG.

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Speaker 1: It's that if you're going to play that type of style,

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Speaker 1: playing very defensive, you know, too big basasically two low blocks,

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Speaker 1: you have to be precision on point with your counters.

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Speaker 1: You cannot be sloppy like we saw with Real Madrid.

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Speaker 1: They were incredibly sloppy and they couldn't get anything moving forward.

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Speaker 1: PSG basically just every press they had just took the

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Speaker 1: ball away. And Man City is capable of that type

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Speaker 1: of pressure as well. So ultimately I will be passing.

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Speaker 1: I think the market is pretty pretty dead on with

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Speaker 1: this number. You potentially could look at it under but

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Speaker 1: again you know this, if City scores first, then todam

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Speaker 1: is going to have to come out of there whatever

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Speaker 1: type of defensive shell that they have, and it could

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Speaker 1: turn into a high scoring match. So I will ultimately

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Speaker 1: be passing.

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Speaker 2: Norwich did get to eight shots and Brentford got to

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Speaker 2: a little over half of an expected goal, so you

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Speaker 2: know those aren't good attacking numbers, but you know, Spurs

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Speaker 2: obviously are much better attacked than those two teams, but

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Speaker 2: it's not that city. You know, they can suffer any

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Speaker 2: team at any time, but there have been a few

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Speaker 2: cracks they hitch haven't been punished at all, and I think,

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Speaker 2: you know Brentford especially, there was a few moments where

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Speaker 2: it looked like they were going to break through and

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Speaker 2: then they just couldn't quite find the final pass. Well,

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Speaker 2: Tottenham's the kind of team that can absolutely punish you there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean we spoke about it last podcast. But

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Speaker 1: obviously the City performances against bigger sides haven't really been

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Speaker 1: up to the more dominating form that we've saw in years,

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Speaker 1: pass especially in the new year. Obviously, the two to

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Speaker 1: one winn against Arsenal was pretty lucky. They were not

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Speaker 1: the better side for the first forty five minutes Chelsea,

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Speaker 1: it was pretty even, you know. Basically de Bruyna a

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Speaker 1: wonder goal from outside the box only created about point

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Speaker 1: seven expectacles and they've had a pretty easy run up

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Speaker 1: until this point when they have to face tought him.

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Speaker 1: So it's a very interesting match and it's a really

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Speaker 1: really huge match because if Tottenham wins the top four race,

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Speaker 1: they're right back in it. There with Arsenal. If they lose,

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Speaker 1: that makes it really troublesome, and then Arsenal takes a

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Speaker 1: huge advantage in terms of the top four and if

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Speaker 1: they can beat City, well the Liverpool's right back in

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Speaker 1: the title race. So it'll be interesting to see. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on to Saturday morning. At seven thirty am Eastern time,

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Speaker 1: west Ham is hosting Newcastle. The Hammers are minus one

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Speaker 1: forty five, Newcastle sitting at plus four hundred with the

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Speaker 1: draw at plus two ninety five. I'll start I do

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Speaker 1: like west Ham in this matchup. I think it is

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Speaker 1: a pretty good spot to essentially get right at this

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Speaker 1: offense is like we haven't really seen them play up

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Speaker 1: to the level that they've been capable of the previously

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Speaker 1: in this season. The big thing here though is Newcastle's

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Speaker 1: lost care and trip here pretty much for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the season with a broken foot, and that is

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Speaker 1: obviously huge for Newcastle because he has really revitalized not

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Speaker 1: only their defense but in terms of progressing the ball

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Speaker 1: up the field, you know, supplying the attack. He has

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Speaker 1: been a much much better option for them that they've

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Speaker 1: had all season long. Newcastle basically since they brought in

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Speaker 1: all the new transfers. They've been pretty good defensively, you know,

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Speaker 1: three three and a half expected goals in four matches,

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Speaker 1: but those four matches were against Watford, Leeds, Everton and

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Speaker 1: Aston Villa who were all in the bottom half of

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Speaker 1: the Premier League in terms of expected goals for you know,

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Speaker 1: even the last match against aston Villa was quite concerning

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Speaker 1: because Newcastle really didn't create anything of value. They only

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Speaker 1: had zero point four expected goals, fourteen shock creating actions,

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Speaker 1: fifteen touches. In Villa's penaltyar he was basically just a

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Speaker 1: Karen trippy Are free kick and that was basically the difference.

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Speaker 1: And they're also still without Callum Wilson, their backup right

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Speaker 1: back Javier Manko is also injured, so they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: on a third choice right back for this one, which

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Speaker 1: is not good when you're having to defend the wingers

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Speaker 1: that west Ham has in like Pablo for Analys or

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Speaker 1: ben Rama, whoever it's going to be there on the

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Speaker 1: left side, can really punish Newcastle up the wing there.

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Speaker 1: West Ham they played much better at home than they

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Speaker 1: have on the road this season. Plus five and a

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Speaker 1: half expected gold of frenchow at the Olympic stadium versus

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Speaker 1: minus one point nine on the road. One thing to

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on, especially as the status of Jared Bowen.

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Speaker 1: As at the time we're taping this on Wednesday night,

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Speaker 1: he is questionable, along with Kurt Zuma also being questionable.

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Speaker 1: If Bowen is out or he doesn't start, then this

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Speaker 1: is complete pass, stay away, just let it go. But

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Speaker 1: as it stands right now, if Bowen is in the lineup,

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Speaker 1: I do think there is some value on west Ham

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Speaker 1: minus one forty five. I have them projected around minus

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Speaker 1: one seventy five. I think it's a really good get

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Speaker 1: right spot for them with a really depleted Newcastle defense.

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Speaker 1: Do you have anything for west Ham versus Newcastle?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the market is catching up to what

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Speaker 2: I've kind of felt about this west Ham team for

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Speaker 2: the last few weeks. That overrated is the word. One

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Speaker 2: point seven expected goals created against United, who we've talked about.

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Speaker 2: It's a pretty mediocre defense right now, Lester who is

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Speaker 2: the third worst defense in the league and Watford who

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Speaker 2: is the second worst. So they just played you know,

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Speaker 2: three bad defenses and they failed to get ten shots

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Speaker 2: in any of those games. They failed to surpass one

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Speaker 2: expected goal. They did score one or two. It's lester,

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Speaker 2: including a stoppage time header off a corner and then

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Speaker 2: one over the top ball to Bowen that led to

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Speaker 2: a chance that was pretty poor defending from Leicester. But

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Speaker 2: they just aren't right. Something's wrong with their attack and

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Speaker 2: it's a lot of it I think is just regression.

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Speaker 2: I think they played above their heads in the first

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Speaker 2: half of the season and now, you know, as the

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Speaker 2: season goes on and the players are wearing out a

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Speaker 2: little bit because they're so thin. Now they have you know,

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Speaker 2: Europa League on the horizon as well coming up in

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Speaker 2: a few weeks. I just think there's something off about

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Speaker 2: this team and I don't want to lay minus one

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Speaker 2: forty against the Newcastle team, who I think is improving.

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Speaker 2: And it makes a lot of sense, right they added

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Speaker 2: a bunch of players, and their players they have now

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Speaker 2: are better than the players they had before, so now

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Speaker 2: they're playing better. And sometimes it really is that simple.

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Speaker 2: I think these teams are trending in opposite directions. I

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Speaker 2: can't get there on the number, Like you said, if

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Speaker 2: this was a minus one seventy and we were looking

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Speaker 2: at five five to one on Newcastle, I think I'd

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Speaker 2: fire on it. I don't hate a shot on Newcastle

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Speaker 2: on the money line. I think if you wanted to

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Speaker 2: play this, that's the way to look because if we're right,

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Speaker 2: or you know, if what I think is right, and

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Speaker 2: that these two teams are trending in ops directions and

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Speaker 2: they continue to go that way, you've got a decent

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Speaker 2: number on the road here, so that would be where

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Speaker 2: I would look, but probably gonna end up passing here,

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Speaker 2: and I need to go scrounge the west Ham calendar

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Speaker 2: to figure out my fate spots because I'm looking for them.

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Speaker 2: I'm on the hunt.

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Speaker 1: We'll see. I think this is a really good, get

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Speaker 1: right spot for them. I do think they're a really

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Speaker 1: really good offense. But again, Jared Bones got to play

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Speaker 1: for me because he's everything to their attack right now.

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Speaker 1: Like you mentioned, all their regression. Without Jared Bone, there

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Speaker 1: would be nothing. So it's it's west Ham or nothing

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Speaker 1: for me. Let's move on. My arsenal Gunners are hosting

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Speaker 1: one of our favorite teams on this podcast, The Brentford Bees.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal is minus two forty Brentford sitting at seven to one,

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Speaker 1: with the draw at plus three sixty. I'll give everybody

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Speaker 1: my thoughts on Arsenal a second, but do you have

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Speaker 1: anything for Brentford versus Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: I think the under is the look if you're gonna

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Speaker 2: play this, I'm you know, Brentford would be a big

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Speaker 2: bet for me if they were at home, But again

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Speaker 2: it's the away home splits for this team. Arsenal as

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Speaker 2: a big difference between them when they're at home versus

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Speaker 2: when they've been on the road this season. These are

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Speaker 2: just averaging point nine to five expected goals per ninety

259
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Speaker 2: only scoring about point eighty five away from home this

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Speaker 2: season when even strength. That's the fifth worst in the league.

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Speaker 2: And they've only you know, Arsenal's only scored two goals

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Speaker 2: in the last seven matches in all competitions that includes

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Speaker 2: League and FA Cup. This attack has come down a

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Speaker 2: little bit cooled off after that absurd run they had

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Speaker 2: in December during the festive period, and they've only conceded

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Speaker 2: five goals in those seven matches and three of those

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Speaker 2: five were to Liverpool and well, we can't compare them

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Speaker 2: to Brentford and it's a big revenge spot. Arsenal was

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Speaker 2: embarrassed on opening day at the Brentford Community Stadium, lost

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Speaker 2: to nil, so you have to imagine that they're out

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Speaker 2: for and they're going to be focused for this match,

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Speaker 2: especially given the fact they really haven't played much recently

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Speaker 2: because they had the match over the weekend canceled. So

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Speaker 2: I would lean toward the under if I played it.

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Speaker 2: The number seems a little inflated on Arsenal. I think

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Speaker 2: you agree with that, but I don't think either of

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Speaker 2: us are running to bet Brentford either.

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Speaker 1: I'm right in lockstep with you that Arsenal is overvalued

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Speaker 1: here and actually I am showing a little bit value

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Speaker 1: on Brentford. But the matchup is not good at all,

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Speaker 1: because we've mentioned plenty of times Brentford is really bad

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Speaker 1: away from the Brentford Community Stadium, minus six and a

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Speaker 1: half expected goald differential and averaging under one expected goal

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Speaker 1: per match. Arsenal, if you look at their expected goals numbers,

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Speaker 1: you'll see it's kind of low compared to the rest

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Speaker 1: of the top four, but a lot of that is

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Speaker 1: just they've gotten pounded by Liverpool City and Chelsea. They

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Speaker 1: against the bottom half of the table this season. They're

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Speaker 1: eight to two and two with a plus eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half expected goal differential and only allowing point eight

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Speaker 1: nine expected goals per match. Now, they obviously got a huge,

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Speaker 1: huge win against Wolves last Thursday despite a red car

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Speaker 1: from Gabrielle Martinelli in the second half. He won't be

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Speaker 1: in this one. That obviously hurts Arsenal, but this is

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Speaker 1: a match they absolutely need if they want to finish

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Speaker 1: in the top four. Brentford the forum is really really

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Speaker 1: bad and there's gonna be a lot of opportunities to

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Speaker 1: buy low on Brentford going forward, but this is not

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Speaker 1: one of those opportunities. They did draw with Crystal Palace

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Speaker 1: over the weekend in the match they probably should have won,

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Speaker 1: but only four points in their last ten Premier League matches.

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Speaker 1: The big thing with Arsenal, the reason I think that

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Speaker 1: this resurgence has happened is they've done a much much

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Speaker 1: better job at playing through pressure. So if we start

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Speaker 1: from basically the Southampton match, which is the first sign

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Speaker 1: where Arsenal actually started to turn things around and look

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Speaker 1: like the side that I think that we all think

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Speaker 1: they're capable of, Arsenal's offensive passes per defensive action is

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Speaker 1: at fourteen point three, which is fourth in the Premier

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Speaker 1: League over that time span. When in the matches before

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Speaker 1: December eleventh, it was around twelve, which is around seventh

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League. So I don't think Brentford's pressing

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Speaker 1: is going to be as successful as it potentially was

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Speaker 1: in the first match. You go back to that first match,

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Speaker 1: obviously Gabrielle was out, Arsenal was missing a few guys

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Speaker 1: here and there. They did get a ton of shots

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Speaker 1: off against Brentford, but I think they had like twenty

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Speaker 1: two shots and only created about one point three expecting goals,

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Speaker 1: So kind of embarrassing performance in terms of actually creating

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Speaker 1: some high quality chances. Again, this price is a little

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Speaker 1: inflated on Arsenal, But like you said, I'm not rushing

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Speaker 1: to the window to bet Brentford because it's really not

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Speaker 1: that great of a matchup for the Bees. But we'll

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Speaker 1: find time to buy low on the Bees, but this

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Speaker 1: is not that time.

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Speaker 2: And No, Martinelli takes away their second shot guy after

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Speaker 2: lock is ywn and I think that's a big loss,

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Speaker 2: especially since they don't have a ton of depth anymore.

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Speaker 2: Bambi Yang is gone, we don't know the Nicoleton, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Pepe situation is kind of in flux. I'm just

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Speaker 2: not sure, there's a ton of shots in this team,

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Speaker 2: and of course they got plenty of them in the

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Speaker 2: first meeting, like you said, But again, it would be

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Speaker 2: a strong lean toward the under. I may end up

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Speaker 2: playing this if it gets juiced up a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but right now, no plan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be a Mail Smith Row on the left

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Speaker 1: will be my guess. Nicholas Pepe is just he's just

339
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Speaker 1: not there. I don't know what happened. That's one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest Arsenal flops ever. But I think Arsenal just.

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Speaker 2: Needs to move on to seventy million eighty.

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Speaker 1: But that is a conversation for another day, Anthony. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on aston Villa. Steven Gerrard's aston Villa. They are

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Speaker 1: hosting Watford. Aston Villa is sitting at minus one sixty five,

345
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Speaker 1: Watford at plus four seventy five with the draw at

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Speaker 1: plus three ten. I'll start I'm really sour, or I

347
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Speaker 1: could say I'm really skeptical of this aston Villa team

348
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Speaker 1: right now. It's not it's a team that I'm not

349
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Speaker 1: looking to really kind of sell high on. Obviously, they've

350
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Speaker 1: had a lot of good performances and good results, but

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Speaker 1: they have not been an offensive juggernaut whatsoever. In his

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Speaker 1: twelve matches in charge under Jerrard in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: Aston Villa has only created ten point seven expected goals. Now,

354
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Speaker 1: they have been pretty good defensively over that time span.

355
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,040
Speaker 1: They've only allowed fourteen point five expected goals, but five

356
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Speaker 1: point three came against Liverpool and Chelsea, so they've had

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Speaker 1: some pretty good defensive performances against teams not in the

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Speaker 1: top four. Watford has obviously switched to a four to

359
00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,280
Speaker 1: four to two under Roy Hodgson, and the results, at

360
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 1: least defensively have been much improved. They've only allowed two

361
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Speaker 1: point nine expected goals and his three matches in charge

362
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 1: and done a much better job of clogging up the

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Speaker 1: middle of the pitch now. The change is also in

364
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,000
Speaker 1: that type of structure though, has also seen a big

365
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,400
Speaker 1: time dip in their offensive output, as they've only got

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00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 1: one point eight expected goals in their three matches and

367
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Speaker 1: are only averaging about nineteen touches in the opposing penalty area,

368
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Speaker 1: which if that keeps up, is going to be bottom

369
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Speaker 1: three in the Premier League. Both these teams have pretty

370
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 1: heavy counter attacking profiles that both significantly more direct attacks

371
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 1: than build up plays, which is fine but also means

372
00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,160
Speaker 1: there's going to be not a lot of meaningful possession,

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Speaker 1: a lot of you know, a lot of turnovers in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch. But also these two are

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Speaker 1: two teams that really haven't been that clinical in front

376
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Speaker 1: of net So given how poor Aston Villa has been

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Speaker 1: offensively under under Jerrard, combined with Watford's new four to

378
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,320
Speaker 1: four to two and improved defensive performance under Hotch, and

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Speaker 1: I think it's a decent chance to buy and under.

380
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Speaker 1: So I'm going to go under two and a half

381
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Speaker 1: goals at minus one ten because I think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be potentially a pretty low event game with

383
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 1: Watford sitting deep for most of the match. Do you

384
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 1: have anything for aston Villa versus Watford.

385
00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll agree here. I'll endorse the under two and

386
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 2: a half. I think it's the only look here. Villa

387
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 2: has improved a lot on the counter. I thought the

388
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 2: leads match was incredibly impressive from that even though they

389
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 2: drew and I faded them in that game and cash

390
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 2: a ticket. But you know, Catino is so good in

391
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 2: those spaces, and I think he makes this team so

392
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 2: much better on the counter and makes you know, a

393
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:22,160
Speaker 2: pretty otherwise mediocre attack come to life. I mean he

394
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,160
Speaker 2: he is the missing piece you know, that fits in

395
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,680
Speaker 2: perfectly with Watkins, so and Ramsey, who's really come along

396
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 2: quite a bit, and the attack has fallen through the

397
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 2: floor with with with Watford point eight expected goals against

398
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,679
Speaker 2: Brighton and Burnley. Burnley a team who is you know,

399
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 2: conceding goals left and right and conceding chances left and right.

400
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 2: And Brighton not a terrible performance. I thought Watford they

401
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:49,639
Speaker 2: were fine, but just really nothing at all. And you know,

402
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 2: Brighton's the top five defense, so we don't we don't

403
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 2: count it against them. But you know, when they played

404
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 2: earlier this year, Watford offered much more going forward, and

405
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 2: I think when Villa is forced to break it team down,

406
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,639
Speaker 2: that will be the next test. And we really haven't

407
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 2: seen quite of that. We saw they lost at Newcastle

408
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 2: last time out in a situation where they were asked

409
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 2: to kind of be the better team, and now they're

410
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,480
Speaker 2: you know, minus one, one sixty. It's kind of steep.

411
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,639
Speaker 2: So I would lean toward the under as well and

412
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 2: lean toward Watford plus one.

413
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you asked and Ville, like you said,

414
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 1: it's it's it's tough when you have a big time

415
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 1: counter attacking profile and you're asked to be the more

416
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,360
Speaker 1: possession dominant side. They did hold sixty three percent possession

417
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: against Newcastle, but I really wasn't able to do anything with it,

418
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: only zero point four expected goals. So and even the

419
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 1: match against Leeds Leads held sixty percent possession against them.

420
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see, Like you said, if

421
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 1: they have to hold most of the possession and try

422
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 1: to break a four to four to two down, are

423
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 1: they capable of doing it? I'm not so sure. All right,

424
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 1: let's move on Brighton, another one of our favorite teams.

425
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 1: Here on the podcast, they are hosting Burnley. Brighton is

426
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 1: sitting at minus one thirty five, Burnley at plus four

427
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 1: to twenty five, with the draw at plus two seventy.

428
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 1: I'm leaning, but I'll let you give the people your

429
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: thoughts before I tell everybody why we need to avoid

430
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 1: a potential meltdown from Brighton.

431
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, the regression indicators point toward the over

432
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 2: in this game, Brighton underperforming expected goals once again. The

433
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 2: defense has been a bit you know, fortunate they will

434
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 2: not have Lewis dunk for this game because of suspension,

435
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 2: they've only created twenty five goals from about twenty eight

436
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 2: expected and Burnley's attacks has had some signs of life.

437
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 2: They did create a lot of chances on the counter

438
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 2: against Liverpool in the last match and really should have

439
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 2: scored one, maybe even two goals in that game, finished

440
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 2: with over one expected goal and they've only scored seventeen

441
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 2: goals from their twenty expected goals. Both teams have scored

442
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 2: very tempting, especially given how much Brighton and Burnley created

443
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,919
Speaker 2: in their last match against United and Liverpool respectively, and

444
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 2: just couldn't quite find the finish. So I think there's

445
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 2: a chance this game is more open. You know, Brighton

446
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 2: are in a situation where they're safely in the mid

447
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 2: table and they're kind of just able to play their

448
00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: kind of football and really express themselves. And I think

449
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 2: I think Brighton is a team who could become a

450
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 2: sneaky over team in the in the you know, toward

451
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 2: the end of the season if they continue sitting kind

452
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 2: of in the mid table because the defense naturally tends

453
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: to drop off at the end of the season when

454
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: team playing for anything. Market does price that in. But

455
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 2: I think you're going to see this Brighton team maybe

456
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 2: be a little more aggressive going forward. I wouldn't shock

457
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 2: me if that were the case. Also wouldn't shock me

458
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: if they just missed every chance like they always do.

459
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,120
Speaker 2: So you know, I would lean toward the over. Don't

460
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: really want to lay the one thirty five and no

461
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 2: interest in Burnley here, so that's where I would look

462
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 2: if anything, but this is this is probably the clearest

463
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 2: stay away for me on the board this weekend.

464
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to take a lot of me to

465
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: stay away from Brighton. I obviously I just need a

466
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: better numbers. This is too steep to lay with Brighton,

467
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: even though I do have a little bit of projected

468
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 1: value on them. You mentioned it last you Know podcast.

469
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 1: Over the last two seasons, Brighton is the least profitable

470
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 1: team as a favorite in the Premier League, which is

471
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: just not good. It means they're very good as an underdog,

472
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,199
Speaker 1: but not very good as a favorite in terms of

473
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: actually getting margin and against these smaller sides. I will

474
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: say that Brighton, I do think they have a lot

475
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: of advantages in terms of they'll be able to control

476
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: the possession and they'll be able to build it from

477
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 1: the back without a lot of resistance, They'll be able

478
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 1: to get a lot of shots, a lot of box

479
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 1: entries because Burnley's dead last offensively in both those We've

480
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,639
Speaker 1: all spoke about it before, but Burnley's having a lot

481
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: of trouble away from home minus ten point eight expected

482
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: gold differential away from turf. More, in only eleven matches,

483
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: Brighton has allowed the fifth fewest expected goals off a

484
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,959
Speaker 1: set pieces as well, so that's another advantage they'll have

485
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,239
Speaker 1: over Burnley. Again, I really need a better price than

486
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 1: Brighton here. If it drops down to minus one twenty

487
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 1: five minus one twenty I probably end up firing on Brighton.

488
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 1: But at this current number of minus one thirty five,

489
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: it's a stay away from me, all right. Let's move

490
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 1: on to a London derby. Crystal Palace is hosting Chelsea

491
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: Saturday at ten am Eastern. Crystal Palace is sitting at

492
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 1: plus four fifty. Chelsea's a minus one fifty five road

493
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,360
Speaker 1: favorite with the draw at plus two to ninety. This

494
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 1: is a really interesting match, a really really good spot

495
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: for Crystal Palace. I'll give everybody my thoughts here in

496
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 1: a second, but I'll let you kick it off for

497
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: this one.

498
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 2: I mean it's a situational nightmare for Chelsea, right, Like

499
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: they just won the Club World Cup over Palmiras in

500
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 2: the final that went to extra time, very emotional, big

501
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 2: time victory. They played pretty poorly, yeah, I mean they

502
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: went up and deserved the lead, but then Palmiers gets

503
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 2: a penalty to get back into it. But overall a

504
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 2: very mediocre Chelsea showing, and you know you could excuse that.

505
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: But now they're in a sandwich here, right, they have

506
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 2: this road trip to Palace ahead of the Champions League

507
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 2: game against lel on Tuesday, and Palace one of the

508
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 2: best home teams in the league. The plus point eighty

509
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 2: five expect the goal difference per ninety at home. That's

510
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: in a thousand minutes of eleven on eleven, so it's

511
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: not that small of a sample we're dealing with here,

512
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: fourth best in the league. But they've been pretty unlucky,

513
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 2: only plus point one seven, so you know, about six

514
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 2: tenths of a goal per ninety different in terms of

515
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: actual goal difference, so they've been pretty unlucky. The first

516
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: time each teams met again back on opening Day, not

517
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 2: a ton you can read into it, but they did

518
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 2: hold Chelsea to about point nine expected goals. It was

519
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: a classic two Cole win three to zero in the end,

520
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,479
Speaker 2: but really Chelsea struggled to create big scoring chances and

521
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 2: there is still more room for a regression for Chelsea.

522
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: And you know, I think, I know, I've already bet

523
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 2: against them in the Champions League. I'll be looking against

524
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 2: them here. It could be a sneaky under Chelsea attack

525
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 2: and defense has both kind of gone toward unders recently,

526
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: but neither one expected goal for or against in each

527
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 2: of the last three Premier League matches. And then look,

528
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 2: Palace has played well as a dog. They outperformed City

529
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: and Liverpool in their games this season. Earlier they beat

530
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: City and they lost to Liverpool but won the expected

531
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: goals battle. It was a three to one defeat, but

532
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 2: really it could have been like a two to two

533
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 2: kind of game. And then there was a late penalty

534
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: that made it three to one, but really Palace was

535
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: threatening to make it to two very late. So they

536
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 2: created a lot of chances in that game. And that

537
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: was recently as well. So I think Palace is live here.

538
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 2: I don't hate them on the money line. I took

539
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 2: some plus one. It is juicy, I know, there's it's

540
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: up to minus one forty one forty five. Now I

541
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 2: wouldn't play a past minus one fifty. I don't usually

542
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: lay that kind of juice, but I think this is

543
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 2: a really good spot for what should be a pretty competitive, difficult,

544
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 2: difficult spot. One of the worst spots of the year

545
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 2: I think for Chelsea.

546
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's the worst spot of the year. Like

547
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 1: you said, Crystal Palace, the performances at home have just

548
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: been so so incredible and honestly really good against the

549
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 1: top sides as well as well. They've basically faced off

550
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: against Tottenham, Wolves, West Ham and Liverpool at home. They've

551
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: won the expected goals battle in all four of those

552
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 1: matches and have a plus four point eight expected goal

553
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 1: to frenchal against those four teams. Now one of those

554
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: Tottenham to have a red card, but still it's still

555
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 1: incredibly impressive to actually win the expected goals battle against

556
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: those four teams at home and pretty convincingly as well.

557
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: They the biggest thing that I've when I was doing

558
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 1: the research here, Crystal Palace tends to really struggle with

559
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: teams that can get the ball out wide and swing

560
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 1: crosses into them are not very good in terms of

561
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: defending cross is actually dead last in the Premier League

562
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 1: that had well. Chelsea offensively is sixteenth and crosses completed

563
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 1: in the penalty area, so they won't be able to

564
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: exploit Crystal Palace like they maybe should. The spot for Chelsea,

565
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: they even those two pretty uninspiring performances in the FIFA

566
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: Club World Cup Before that, even in the Premier League

567
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: they had three incredibly uninspiring offensive performances in the Premier League.

568
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 1: They created under one expected goal against City, Brighton and Toddham.

569
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: I know they beat todt them to nothing and it

570
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: was somewhat convincing, but didn't really do a whole lot offensively. Also,

571
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: it looks like Mason Mount might miss this match, which

572
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: would be actually a pretty big blow to Chelsea. I

573
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 1: know they have a lot of depth, but he does

574
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 1: lead the team in expected goals plus expected it's just

575
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes, so he actually would be a pretty

576
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 1: significant blow to them, especially in a Sandwich spot. With

577
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 1: Lil on deck. In the Champions League, I can't even

578
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 1: get close to Chelsea minus one fifty five. I only

579
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,360
Speaker 1: have them around plus one ten. So I'm right there

580
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: with you. I love Crystal Palace plus one. I would

581
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 1: definitely pay that juice up to minus one fifty and

582
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 1: a little sprinkle on the money line is going to

583
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: be a good play I think as well. All right,

584
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: let's move on to the last ten am match of Saturday.

585
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: Liverpool is hosting Norwich City. Liverpool sitting at minus nine

586
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: hundred Norwich at twenty five to one to win one

587
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: soccer match, with the draw at plus eight point fifty

588
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 1: similar to the Norwich City match. I am pretty happy

589
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 1: to pass this. I might take a look at both

590
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: teams to score no which is at minus one forty five,

591
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 1: because like we've mentioned plenty of times, I think we're

592
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: up to what zero goals and twenty seven allowed for

593
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 1: Norwich against twenty nine goals. Okay, so negative twenty nine

594
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: goal differential versus the top seven sides in the Premier League.

595
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 1: That is shockingly bad. Obviously, the expected you know, indicators

596
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 1: say they should have played a little bit better. Whatever,

597
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: I'm happy to just pass. Liverpool obviously coming off a

598
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: win against Inter Milan in the Champions League, and I

599
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 1: believe they have a makeup match next week as well,

600
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: so kind of a little bit of a sandwich spot

601
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,199
Speaker 1: for them. I'll be passing. Do you have anything for

602
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: Liverpool versus Norwich? I do, don't do it, I know

603
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: what you're gonna do.

604
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean you see our show notes, so

605
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 2: you know where this is going. Norwich team total over

606
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 2: a half plus one thirty one thirty five. I think

607
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 2: it happens like half the time. But I mean, let's

608
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 2: be honest, Liverpool's defense was pretty fortunate today against Inter

609
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 2: Milan to not concede a goal. The crossbar denied interbetters

610
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,439
Speaker 2: there and there was a lot of very close chances

611
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 2: that almost came off that don't quite go up in

612
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 2: the expected goals charts. But overall, I think we're relatively

613
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 2: dangerous chances. That's why we have expected threat, which I'm

614
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: hoping we can get more into down the road has

615
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 2: become more publicly available. But Inter was threatening, and we

616
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: go back to the Burnley match. Burnley created over one

617
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: expected goal, got in behind multiple times. Look, I Norwich

618
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 2: is horrible. I don't want to bet this at all,

619
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: but I have to at the number, and so I

620
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: think it's a bet that you know it wins half

621
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 2: the time, and so at plus one thirty I'm going

622
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: to bet it and I'm going to lose. But if

623
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: you want to join me on some pain, come join me.

624
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 2: Norwich We're gonna We're gonna scratch and claw goal out here.

625
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 2: Liverpool nineteen goals allowed from about twenty five expected allowed

626
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 2: and Norwich did produce one point four XG in the

627
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 2: first meeting. A lot of that came after the game

628
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 2: was decided. I don't care if they scored in the

629
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 2: first minute or the ninety third. When they're down eight

630
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: to zero, Liverpool will concede here I think about half

631
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: the time. So plus one thirty we're riding.

632
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: Please pray for me, I will, I'll pray for you

633
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: and your family. I apologize. We have one last ten

634
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 1: am Eastern match on Saturday. It is and how could

635
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: we forget it? Because it's Southampton hosting Michael's Everton Toffees.

636
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: Southampton is a plus one oh five favorite, Everton sitting

637
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: at plus two to fifty five with the draw at

638
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: plus two sixty. Anthony, how are we feeling about Michael's

639
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 1: Toffees going on the road to the Saint Mary Stadium

640
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 1: to take on on the Saints.

641
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 2: Now, Dominic cavallewin his back and his movement makes a

642
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 2: big difference for this team. It's noticeable. They give him

643
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: an actual striker, somebody to play through, somebody who, prior

644
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: to all these injuries was looking at to be like

645
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: an eighty ninety million hour signing to a big club,

646
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: and there were United rumors out there. I think he

647
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: would actually be an amazing fit there once they move

648
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: off and all though, with that being said, going onto

649
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 2: this match, Saints just ran the gauntlet. They played City,

650
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 2: they played Spurs, they played United back to back to

651
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 2: back league games. They managed five points and they had

652
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 2: a pretty impressive showing. But now you expect them to

653
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,959
Speaker 2: be a little flat here at home against an Everton

654
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 2: team who's been really struggling in the gutter and they're

655
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: near the relegation battle. The win against Leeds was a

656
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: step in the right direction for Lampard and I think

657
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 2: they're going to continue to make improvements and move up.

658
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 2: I don't think they're really a bottom five team, which

659
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 2: the numbers suggest they are. The numbers on this match

660
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 2: imply that they're considerably better than Everton Southampton is. I

661
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 2: don't really see it that way. I think they're pretty

662
00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: comparable and therefore the home field Avanage, which is a

663
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 2: little too heavy here. I don't quite get to the number.

664
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 2: So I'm taking Everton plus a half and I think

665
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 2: they're live to win this because I think Saints could

666
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 2: be very flat coming down off of some emotional, high

667
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: intensity games against United in Spurs on the road, now

668
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 2: coming home could be flat.

669
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously a lot has changed since opening weekend, but

670
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: Everton did beat Southampton three to one and two point

671
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: four tower point seven unexpected goals. Now, if we go

672
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 1: back to that, if I remember right, we were all

673
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: saying Southampton is a potential relegation team. Well that's obviously

674
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: not come to fruition, but you mentioned it. Having Dominique

675
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: calver Lewin and Chardlson on the field at the same

676
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: time is absolutely vital and huge for Everton. With both

677
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: them playing, Everton averages around one point four x g

678
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: per ninety. Without them it drops off to a round

679
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: one point zero five x g p ninety. So it's

680
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: a very very big difference having those two guys in

681
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: the lineup. Now, this is a situation where in the

682
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: past we probably would have came on here and said, hey,

683
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: you know, Everton struggles playing through pressure. They have all

684
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: season long, like, it's not a good match for them

685
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: playing it's high intensity press that Southampton will give them

686
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: well with the personnel changes they've had and the changes

687
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: to the formation as well, bringing in Donny van der

688
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: Beek and Delhi Ali who have played at big clubs

689
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: and have played against you know, teams that are going

690
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: to press them and not in some archaic four to

691
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 1: four to two where it's just playing long balls up

692
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: the pitch. Everton I think has a better chance at

693
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: playing through pressure and then sustaining you know, triangle passing

694
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 1: and getting the ball moving forward. Against Leeds they only

695
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: allowed them a twenty five percent pressure success rate against

696
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: the highest pressing team in the Premier League, which is

697
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: actually pretty impressive. Now, they were at home and it

698
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: was not a great spot for Leeds, but again this

699
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 1: is the potential of this Everton team. They're not just

700
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: playing under Rotha Benitez four to four to two without

701
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 1: the right personnel, there actually can be a pretty solid

702
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: side that is pretty threatening going forward an attack. Like

703
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: you mentioned, Southampton been through the fairly difficult part of

704
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: their schedule. The performances at home have been good, but

705
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: really not that dominant. Only a plus one point two

706
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: expect a goldfreential, and they actually have a whopping seven

707
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 1: draws in eleven home matches, which leads the Premier League.

708
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: So additionally, Southampton really bad playing through teams that will

709
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: press them back. Sixteenth in offensive passes per defensive action. Well,

710
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: Everton actually has the third best preciore success rate in

711
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: the Premier League. So I'm with you. I love Everton

712
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: here in the spot on the road plus half a

713
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: goal at minus one twenty two not only get a

714
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: result again with you sprinkle on the money line a

715
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: little bit. All right, Let's move on to Sunday. We

716
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: have first up Leeds United hosting Manchester United. Leeds is

717
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: sitting at plus three ten. Manchester United is a minus

718
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 1: one ten road favorite, with the draw sitting at plus

719
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: two seventy if we remember correctly. Obviously, these matches are

720
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: the reverse fixtures of the opening weekend matches, so Manchester

721
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 1: United famously thrashed leads five to one at Old Trafford.

722
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: But I think they only created what one point five

723
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: expected goals and scored in all four of their shots

724
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 1: in the second half in that one. Obviously, a ton

725
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 1: has changed since then for both of these sides United

726
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: obviously as a new manager, new personnel. Leeds is not healthy,

727
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: still missing a lot of their best players. I love

728
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: the over here. I'll let you start here, but I

729
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: think this is I think you agree with me that

730
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 1: this match has the potential for a ton of goals

731
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: from both teams. Yeah.

732
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 2: I have both teams to score plus over two and

733
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 2: a half parlayd minus won twenty. This is just a

734
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 2: big matchup edge for United and they've always had this

735
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 2: matchup edge against Leeds and we kind of saw it

736
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: in the Southampton match. United is so good at playing

737
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 2: balls over the top, two guys like Rashford to Sancho.

738
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 2: Sancho plays the balls over the top, now Bruno, you

739
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 2: know Pug. But they have so many guys who are

740
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: good in space that when you give them space, and

741
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 2: you give them space to play the balls into over

742
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: the top, they will thrash you. And that's exactly what

743
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 2: happened really in the first meeting, and that's what happened

744
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: when United put six on them last year. And the

745
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 2: question is does Beelsa adjust now in the second meeting

746
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 2: last year he did and he played more passive, more conservative,

747
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 2: didn't quite go balls to the wall and they got

748
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 2: anil little draw out of it. They were a little fortunate,

749
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 2: but United was pretty flat. United here, I think is

750
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 2: starting to turn this corner, and we've talked about this

751
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 2: for three weeks now and the last four matches are

752
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 2: pretty good indication that they are getting better. Two point

753
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 2: four expected goals against Southampton, two against Brighton. Some of

754
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 2: that A lot of that came after the red card,

755
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,919
Speaker 2: but there were other chances to score. I really thought

756
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: that game should have gone over and should have been

757
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,399
Speaker 2: really two one. At least Leeds can still exploit some

758
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: matchup edges in transition and if United runs out of

759
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 2: gas late, you know, against Leeds with leads running all

760
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 2: over the pitch, it could get ugly for United as well.

761
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 2: So I'm not you know, the tails on this game.

762
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: The variance on this game feels very big, and I

763
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: think in the second half we could get a lot

764
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 2: of goals. I do think both teams will score, and

765
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: then I think second half goes either way. So I

766
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 2: don't really love the side here on United, although it

767
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 2: feels like we're a the bottom of the market minus

768
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: one ten against Leeds, but they were minus one twenty

769
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 2: against Leeds on the road last year, so both teams

770
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 2: are a little worse this year kind of evens out.

771
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, I like over two and a half with

772
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 2: both teams to score. I do think this will be

773
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 2: a little back and forth action two to one United

774
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 2: probably in the end, but I think we're going to

775
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 2: get some goals here.

776
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I love over three goals at plus

777
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 1: one five essentially the same exact thing. Leeds is now

778
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: dead last in the Premier League and non penalty expectables

779
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 1: allowed allowing one point seven per match. And if we

780
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 1: remember back to early in the season, we were saying, oh,

781
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 1: this leads defense. You know that's due for some positive aggression.

782
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: They're not allowing a ton of shots, not a lot

783
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: of box entries. They just keep allowing way too many

784
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 1: big scoring chances as well. Now they're allowing too many shots,

785
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: it's around fifteen point four per ninety minutes, and they're

786
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: also allowing a ton of big scoring chances. It's fifteen

787
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 1: in their last seven matches. So for an improving Manchester

788
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 1: United squad that has created ten point three expecting goals

789
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 1: in their last five matches, actually starting to look like

790
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: the offense that matches up. With the talent that they have,

791
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,280
Speaker 1: I don't think they'll have any trouble essentially just running

792
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 1: right through Leeds' defense, who's still without Liam Cooper and

793
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: most likely going to be without Stuart Dallas, who is

794
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 1: their most versatile defender. So with a short handed defense,

795
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be troublesome for Leeds. United

796
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 1: is in a very very interesting spot right now. I

797
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: agree with you that they have somewhat turned a corner,

798
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: but they've played a really easy schedule under Route since

799
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: Route Rangnick took over, and you know, we could say

800
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: that this team is going to turn that corner when

801
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: they have to play a better sides, But I'm very

802
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: interested to see what happens now in this match. They're

803
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: obviously not playing a better side than them, but you

804
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 1: can say the defenses is somewhat still of an issue.

805
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: In Rangnick's twelve Premier League matches in charge, United has

806
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: only faced one offense in the top eight in terms

807
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: of expected goals four, but they are still twelfth in

808
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 1: the Premier League and expected goals allowed, so they haven't

809
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 1: really moved anywhere since Solshar left and this is a

810
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: look ahead spot for them. They have a huge match

811
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: against Athletic Co Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday

812
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: and they need three points to stay in the top

813
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 1: four race. So I expect a full strength Manchester United

814
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 1: squad and I think I should be able to rip

815
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: apart Leads, but I do think Leads will be able

816
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 1: to hit him on the counter a few times. I

817
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 1: have three point four goals projected for this one, so

818
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 1: I love over three goals at plus one oh five.

819
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: All right, wrap up the weekend. Wolves is hosting Lester

820
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 1: at maulinew Wolves is a plus one thirty favorite, with

821
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 1: Leicester sitting at plus two thirty, with a draw also

822
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: sitting at plus two thirty. All start. I actually do

823
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: like Wolves in the spot and it actually kind of

824
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: it's somewhat troublesome, and I think it makes me a

825
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: little bit weary. I don't know, I've said it plenty

826
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 1: of times, but I think Wolves is the most unpredictable

827
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League right now. They obviously just

828
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: beat Tottenham to nothing on the road this past weekend,

829
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: have a great opportunity here to get back to back wins.

830
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 1: I can't figure out their offense. They have the talent

831
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 1: to be a top eight offense in the Premier League,

832
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: but overall for the season they're only averaging around one

833
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goal per match. Now, for the last

834
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 1: four matches they have created four point seven expected goals,

835
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 1: so the signs of improvement are there. We've talked about

836
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 1: time and time again. Lester defensively has been really bad,

837
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: but they did have a pretty good performance against west

838
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 1: Ham this past weekend. They only held them in two

839
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: point seven expected goals. But they have a ton of

840
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,919
Speaker 1: set piece issues and that came to fruition on the goal.

841
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 2: Still couldn't cash under three.

842
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:05,240
Speaker 1: Still couldn't cash under three yeah, or even push yeah.

843
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: So sad I had over three. That makes it. That

844
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 1: makes it over box. We all get lucky every once

845
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: in a while, Anthony, and that makes it now thirteen

846
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 1: set piece goals allowed for Lester on the season, and

847
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: Wolves is actually a pretty efficient team off set pieces. Lester.

848
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: The performances away from the King Power Stadium have been

849
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 1: pretty bad, minus four point five expected to gold eventtion

850
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: only ten matches, buying close to two expected goals for

851
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 1: match away from home. It's a good spot for Wolves,

852
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,359
Speaker 1: but it makes me very very nervous because I don't

853
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: know what to make this team. We've seen it time

854
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 1: and time again. Even when they're at home and they're favored,

855
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: it's very, very difficult for them to get margin and

856
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 1: actually create a lot of high quality chances. So I

857
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: will probably playing Wolves plus one thirty. I would love

858
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: to get them draw no bed, It's obviously way too

859
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: pricey right now for me to play that. But I

860
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: will probably end up playing Wolves at plus one thirty

861
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: because I do have them projected at plus one zh six.

862
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: Do you have anything for the final Premier League match

863
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: of the weekend.

864
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: Wolves overs? No, it's all I have Wolves overs.

865
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: No.

866
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: They should have gone over against Spurs three over three

867
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 2: expected goals in the match. Couldn't cash it over two

868
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 2: in a quarter pain. Once again, Luckbox defense continues to

869
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 2: never concede goals despite conceding chances left and right. It's incredible.

870
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 2: It's unlike anything I've ever seen. But I don't have

871
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: a ton here to be honest. I two teams who

872
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 2: I think should be trending in opts directions in terms

873
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 2: of overs and unders, and the numbers scene is about right.

874
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 2: I don't want to bet Wolves is a favorite. So

875
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 2: there's just a lot of reasons for me to stay

876
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 2: away here, and I've got a you know, it is

877
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: one of my favorite cards of the year. This weekend,

878
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 2: I feel like I've had at least a read on

879
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 2: every game, this one similar to the Burnley and Brighton game.

880
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 2: Don't really have a strong read here, so happy to pass,

881
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: but remember wolves overs.

882
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: Well, let's then move on to a league where we're

883
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 1: going to see a ton of goals, the Bundesliga Germany.

884
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: What is your best bet across Germany this weekend?

885
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 2: You know, I think maybe our best read all year

886
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: was this great the Firth positive regression. They have played

887
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 2: since December. They have played like an average Bundesliga team.

888
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 2: They are a tenth and expected goal difference and actual

889
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 2: goal difference in this league since December, and now they

890
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 2: are going on the road to big bad Byron, who

891
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 2: just conceded four ghosts to Bolkam and a goal to

892
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 2: Salzburg and two pretty poor performances. Again, I think it's

893
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 2: a terrible spot for Groyther in terms of a pissed

894
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 2: off Byron team potentially hanging a crooked number on them.

895
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 2: But but Groithther Firth will score, they're minus one oh

896
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 2: five minus one ten to do so is Byron defense

897
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 2: has been leaking goals Ulreich the goalkeeper. Significant downgrade from

898
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: Noyer is Byron defense not nearly as good with Taliso

899
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 2: in the midfield as it's been with Goretzka next to Chemmick.

900
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 2: They're just not quite right. And they've been playing a

901
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 2: back three and just shoving a ton of attackers on

902
00:41:55,000 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 2: the pitch, playing Koman, Nabriy, Mueller, Sane and Lewandowski. They're

903
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: not getting a lot of defensive work out of those guys.

904
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 2: So I think there's there's room for Greyter to score here.

905
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 2: They did score in the last meeting, and I think

906
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 2: I'm going to be taking the team total over a

907
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: half minus one oh five.

908
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: I believe they held Bayern much to their lowest expectable

909
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: output of the entire season. Right. I believe they only

910
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: had ero point nine expected goals in that one. That

911
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 1: was quite shocking. But yeah, obviously I love Ruther as always.

912
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: They are three thirty to one on the money line.

913
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: For anybody interested out there to win just one soccer

914
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: match against the great Bayern Munich, I will be going

915
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: to I think this is probably what game of the

916
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 1: year in the Bundesliga for this podcast, Friday Afternoon under

917
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: the bright Lights Mines hosting Leverkusen mins plus half a

918
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: goal at minus one forty. Oh man, if there was

919
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:56,399
Speaker 1: ever a cell high spot for Leverkusen and finally maybe

920
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: we'll actually able to beat them. This is the time

921
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 1: they have won four straight matches. They've scored sixteen goals

922
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,320
Speaker 1: but only created twelve expectacles. But that is nothing new

923
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: for the lever Cousen, who have now scored fifty eight

924
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: goals off of forty one point two expected goals. That

925
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 1: is an insane over performance for that long long of

926
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: a time period. Now, I think some of that negative

927
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 1: aggression is going to come on Friday against one of

928
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: our favorite teams on this podcast, Mines, who is an

929
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 1: incredible defensive outfit third in the Bundesligue and non penalty

930
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 1: expected goles out only concede around one point two per

931
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: match and have also conceded the fewest big scoring chances

932
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: in the league. Mines is a very active team in

933
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 1: terms of they're pressing their second second most pressures per

934
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: ninety minutes in the bones League and have the sixth

935
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: most high turnovers per OPTA. That will come handy against Leverkusen,

936
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 1: who is eighth in offensive pass per defensive action and

937
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: eleventh in pressure's success rate allowed. So not really that

938
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 1: good at playing through pressure Mines. They tend to struggle

939
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 1: when they play teams that can press them successfully. Well,

940
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,280
Speaker 1: Leverkusen is not really that team. Their thirteenth and passes

941
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: per defensive action and have the second fewest high turnovers

942
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga. Finally, Mines one of the biggest splits

943
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga in terms of their performances at home

944
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 1: versus on the road. Plus six point seven expected gold

945
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: differential at home versus a minus three and a half

946
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: expected goal diffront on the road. It's a wonder goal grouper.

947
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,439
Speaker 1: On Friday afternoon, Mines plus half a goal and minus

948
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: one thirty five. I actually haven't them projected as a

949
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: small favorite against one of the teams we hate the

950
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: most on this podcast. All right, let's move on to Italy,

951
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 1: your home country. What do you have for us in

952
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 1: Syria on this weekend.

953
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no place like home. Italy has not felt

954
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: like home to me this season, but I'm going with

955
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 2: the classic by low on Bologna minus won twenty on

956
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 2: the money line, they've only won one game in nine.

957
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 2: They've lost seven of those nine, so it's one win,

958
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 2: one draw, seven losses in their last nine. I think

959
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 2: we're at the bottom of the market on what is

960
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 2: perennially a mid table side. And Speccy has won three,

961
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 2: drawn one and lost five in their last five trending up,

962
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 2: but they've only won the expected goals in two of

963
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 2: those five games, and one of them was a home

964
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 2: game against Sournitana where they got two penalties. So you

965
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 2: have to really consider that Dispetsia team was due for

966
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: some positive aggression. It came and they have played pretty well.

967
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 2: But now it's time to sell again because I really

968
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 2: just don't think there's a lot of talent in this side,

969
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 2: whereas Bologna, when you look at the attacking pieces, you'd

970
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 2: expect them to have more production. They've gotten out of

971
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 2: this group this year, and I'm buying low on them,

972
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 2: and I think at home here minus one twenty is

973
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 2: a pretty good price, projected closer to minus one thirty five.

974
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go Friday afternoon. The Turin Darby Juventus

975
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: hosting Torino. Yes, Juventus now has Siri Oz, leading goal

976
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 1: scorer Dussan Vlahovic and their squad, but I don't think

977
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 1: it's going to have a drastic effect in their offense,

978
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 1: at least what some people think he might. If you remember,

979
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: Uventus is still without and going to be without their

980
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: best player, Federico Quisa for an extended period of time.

981
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 1: And what is crazy is that the underlying performances of

982
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: these two teams is essentially the same. At this point

983
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 1: in the season. Uventus has a plus ten expect a

984
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: gold differential while to Reno has a plus eight point

985
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 1: three expect a gol tofferential. So it's a little crazy

986
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: to me. Obviously, you could say Juventus has a lot

987
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 1: more talent than Torino, but for them to be this

988
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: significant a favorite with one eye on the Champions League

989
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 1: match against the Reale on Tuesday, this is a classic

990
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 1: just Uventus over valued spot to Reno. I've mentioned it,

991
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 1: I think I don't know twenty five times on this podcast,

992
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 1: but they're one of the best defensive outfits in Italy,

993
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 1: only point nine to three expected goals allowed per match,

994
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 1: which is the second best mark behind only Napoley. The

995
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 1: reason for that is they hardly allow any big scoring chances,

996
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: only fifteen on the season, and they're the number one

997
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,959
Speaker 1: pressing team in Syria ab I passes per defensive action.

998
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 1: Uventus is decent at playing through the press, but not

999
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,760
Speaker 1: really one of the elite teams. They're seventh in offensive

1000
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: passes per defensive action. So I do think Torino will

1001
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,760
Speaker 1: be able to maybe commit events into a couple turnovers,

1002
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,760
Speaker 1: maybe a couple of high turnovers that lead to shots

1003
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: to Reno has performed really well against the top sides

1004
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: of Italy in seven matches versus the top seven teams

1005
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: in the table, Torino actually has a plus point three

1006
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,280
Speaker 1: expect a goal differential. Even when they faced Juventus earlier

1007
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: this season, they lost on an eighty six minute goal,

1008
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 1: but the match was essentially even. They were dead even

1009
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: unexpected goals, dead even on shock crating actions and debt,

1010
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: even on touches in the Paldy area along with progressive passes.

1011
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 1: So I only have u vetus projected around even money.

1012
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 1: So I love, love, love love Threno once again plus

1013
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 1: one at minus one twenty five on the road to

1014
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:27,760
Speaker 1: potentially get a result in the Turin derby. Let's move

1015
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 1: to Spain for the weekend fixtures of La Liga. What

1016
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 1: is your best bet in Spain this weekend.

1017
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 2: Now, Bill Bao Rialito siadadd both teams to score yes

1018
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: plus one oh five. Also like over two minus one twenty.

1019
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 2: Both clubs do for some regression, both pointing toward goals,

1020
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 2: so Siadad's been very inefficient in front of goal. They've

1021
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,359
Speaker 2: only produced twenty four goals this season from more than

1022
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 2: thirty expected. The club's average shot distance is right in

1023
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 2: the middle of Laaliga, so you'd expect their chance conversion

1024
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 2: rate to also be right around the middle of Laaliga.

1025
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 2: They take average shots, they get average looks, they converted

1026
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 2: at an average rate, but they don't. They're the second

1027
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 2: worst in the league. Only Alavese has a worse rate

1028
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 2: than them of chance conversion. So I'm expecting that to

1029
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: come back up a little bit. And Bill Boo fifty

1030
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 2: five goals expected in their games, there's only actually been

1031
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 2: forty five and they've they've started to come back a

1032
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 2: little bit three to two thriller last match, and they've

1033
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: played a few overs recently as well. So Bill Boo

1034
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 2: overs and associatedod also on the list, so happy to

1035
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 2: play the over here. The market just needs to catch up.

1036
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 2: I mean, this bill Bo team is too good going

1037
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: forward to be continue to be lined at two against

1038
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 2: an average attack in Sociododds. So I'm happy to play

1039
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 2: the over and the both teams to score. You can

1040
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 2: split it. That's usually what I do, but you know

1041
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:43,919
Speaker 2: how you decide to play it either way. We're looking

1042
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 2: towards goals.

1043
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, who doesn't want to watch two of our favorite

1044
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: teams on this podcast? In La Liga, I'm gonna go

1045
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,800
Speaker 1: via Real minus final five on the road at Grenada.

1046
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 1: I know it's a look ahead spot for Viral the

1047
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,959
Speaker 1: Champions League match against Uventus on Tuesday, but this number

1048
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 1: to me is too good to pass up. For one

1049
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 1: of the more impress of teams in Spain over the

1050
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 1: past two months, Virial is a plus one point twenty

1051
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 1: nine x G differential per ninety minutes, which is by

1052
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 1: far the best mark in Spain over the past two months.

1053
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,919
Speaker 1: Their offensive numbers are unbelievably good two point twenty four

1054
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 1: actually per match and then last ten matches, so I

1055
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 1: don't think they should have any trouble creating chances against

1056
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 1: a very, very poor Granada defense that is allowing the

1057
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 1: second most non penalty expected goals per match, the most

1058
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: shots per ninety and the second most big scoring chances

1059
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 1: with thirty eight conceded. On the season, granada offensive end

1060
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: of the pitch has been really trending in the wrong

1061
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: direction as of late. They've only you know, their form,

1062
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 1: They've only picked up two points in the last six matches,

1063
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: only six point four expected goals in those six matches,

1064
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: and things get really bad for Granada defensively when they

1065
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: have to face the top teams in Spain in ten

1066
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 1: matches versus the top seven teams, they have given up

1067
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: a whopping eighteen point one expected goals. So Virial very

1068
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: very much still alive in the top four race in

1069
00:49:57,200 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 1: Lalliga and really really needs three points here to stay

1070
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: in that race with Athleticico Realso Si your Dad and Barcelona.

1071
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 1: This price is too good to pass up for me.

1072
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 1: I have viry Il projected around NUS one fifty, so

1073
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: I love them at minus one on five to grab

1074
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: all three points. All right, let's move on to France

1075
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 1: and League on. Do you have any looks in France

1076
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 1: for US this weekend?

1077
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 2: Not any concrete ones, But I don't hate the look

1078
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 2: towards Claremont Foot. They have underperformed their numbers quite a

1079
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 2: bit as a newly promoted side to league. Huh, Marseille

1080
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 2: comes into this. You know, they're my boys, but you

1081
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 2: know he likes to say this. That's why it's just

1082
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 2: a lean because I can't quite get there. But the number,

1083
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 2: the number is a little high for Marseille here and

1084
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 2: the attack has regressed legitimate improvement from early in the season.

1085
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 2: But my boys have come down a little bit from that. Uh.

1086
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 2: They they're a team who's always going to finish above

1087
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 2: XG because they have a couple of guys who get

1088
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: a lot of shots, who are very good at shooting

1089
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: generally speaking, kind of like Tottenham usually is. But Marseille, Uh,

1090
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 2: definitely has a little bit of aggression coming. My guy

1091
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: dang up top is not quite produced at the level

1092
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:06,880
Speaker 2: that I thought he would after he had an excellent

1093
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 2: start to the season, So it would be a look

1094
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 2: towards Claimont Foot plus one. Also don't hate the under there,

1095
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 2: but nothing as a whole jumps out on the board.

1096
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 2: Although my scene it ten boys, they're fighting, Okay, we're

1097
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 2: staying out, so I'm gonna be looking for some spots

1098
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 2: for them as well.

1099
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 1: Well, maybe you have need to look at a tend

1100
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:25,840
Speaker 1: to stay up. I know Caesars always post those odds,

1101
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: so that'd be an interesting one to figure out. I'm

1102
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 1: gonna go for a little a little bit of a

1103
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:33,399
Speaker 1: better match. I'm gonna go Lens against Leon. I think

1104
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 1: this is a fantastic cell high spot for Leon, who

1105
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 1: has been running pretty hot in legun coming out of

1106
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 1: the international break. They've won three of their last four matches,

1107
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 1: but this is still one of the worst defensive teams

1108
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 1: in France. They've allowed thirty four and a half expected

1109
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 1: goals in twenty four matches, which is third to last

1110
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 1: in the league, and the big they they are maybe

1111
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 1: throughout all of the Europe's top five leagues, maybe be

1112
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 1: the biggest discrepancy between their performances at home versus on

1113
00:51:59,920 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 1: the road plus fourteen expected gold differential at home versus

1114
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 1: a minus seven expected gold differential on the road and

1115
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 1: only eleven matches. In fact, they're a lying over to

1116
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 1: expected goals for match on the road domestically, which is

1117
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 1: quite concerning for a club of their size. Lens has

1118
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 1: been in a weird run of form. They lost back

1119
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: to back matches to Marseille and Laient, but they rebounded

1120
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: to beat Bordeaux this past weekend. Lens is one of

1121
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 1: the more solid defensive outfits in France. They only allow

1122
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 1: one point one to three non penalty expected goals for

1123
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 1: match and their top five and both shots allowed for

1124
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 1: ninety minutes and big scoring chances allowed. Lens is also

1125
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 1: a team similar to Brighton in the Premier League that

1126
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 1: profiles very very well against the top sides in France.

1127
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 1: The reason is not only are they rock solid defensively,

1128
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 1: but they're also a top five offense and pretty much

1129
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 1: every single metric that we look at, and they also

1130
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,479
Speaker 1: play through pressure incredibly well. They're fourth in offensive pass

1131
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,399
Speaker 1: per defensive action, which is huge against the layonned team

1132
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 1: that's second the second best pressing team in France. Lens

1133
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 1: against teams above them in the table has a plus

1134
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 1: two p to expect a gold the French and I

1135
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 1: was only a lost the expected goals battle twice in

1136
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,319
Speaker 1: nine matches against those top seven teams in France, so

1137
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 1: I actually have Lens projected as a small favorite. They

1138
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:13,399
Speaker 1: actually have a better expected gold differential than layon, So

1139
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 1: I love their drawn no bet line plus one ten.

1140
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. It's one of our favorite

1141
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 1: segments of the podcast that hasn't really been going that well.

1142
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 1: But we're going to turn around here our favorite underdogs

1143
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 1: of the week, and this is the portion where Michael

1144
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 1: is going to tell you to be careful. These teams

1145
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 1: are underdogs for a reason. They're not expected to win,

1146
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 1: but as we always say on this podcast, we think

1147
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: that they have a better chance to win than the

1148
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: market is providing. So, Anthony, what is your favorite underdog

1149
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 1: of the weekend?

1150
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 2: Taking in the Premier League Everton plus two fifty on

1151
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 2: the road at Southampton. I think this is a classic

1152
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 2: Cell high spot on the Saints after they had three

1153
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 2: big time games against top six clubs in a row,

1154
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 2: got a result, a positive result in all three of them,

1155
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:03,240
Speaker 2: won one of them, and now they're going to host

1156
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 2: a team in a flat spot, Everton, who is getting healthier,

1157
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 2: getting dominic Calvert lewin back. Think that improves their attack massively.

1158
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 2: His movement, his runs, the ability for them to cross

1159
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,280
Speaker 2: the ball into him is a big part of this team,

1160
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:17,759
Speaker 2: and I think there's some signs that they handled the

1161
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: Leeds pressure well and that Lampard is doing some adjusting

1162
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 2: and if that's the case, I like this matchup for

1163
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 2: them to break through a couple of times and get

1164
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: a couple of big chances against Southampton, because as well

1165
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 2: as the Saints have played, they will conceive big scoring chances.

1166
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 2: That's just how they play. Defensively, one or two times

1167
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:34,720
Speaker 2: a game they're gonna get ripped open and if Everton

1168
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 2: takes those chances, they're alive.

1169
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:38,720
Speaker 1: Underdog here, all right, I'm gonna go to La Liga

1170
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 1: Majorca plus five hundred on the road at Real Bettis.

1171
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 1: This is Sunday at twelve thirty Eastern time. Really really

1172
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 1: bad spot for Real Betis here having to travel all

1173
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 1: the way to Russia to take on Zenit in the

1174
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 1: Europa League knockout playoffs on Thursday. And we spoke about

1175
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 1: it many many times on this podcast. But the Real

1176
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 1: Bets offense very very good, you know, the third in

1177
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 1: expected goals, four second in shots per ninety offensively. However,

1178
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: this defense is still quite quite bad. They're allowing around

1179
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 1: one point three expected goals match, which I know doesn't

1180
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 1: sound like a lot, but in Spain, where it's an

1181
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 1: incredibly low events around two point three to five expect

1182
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 1: goals are created in total per match. It's actually quite high.

1183
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 1: The main problem is they're highly susceptible to giving up

1184
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,360
Speaker 1: big scoring chances. In fact, they've allowed thirty three on

1185
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 1: the season, which is sixteenth in Spain. Well, Myca basically

1186
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 1: just lives on big scoring chances. Offensively, they've created twenty

1187
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 1: nine already this year, which is seventh in Laaliga. The

1188
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 1: problem for my Arca all season long is they they've

1189
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,359
Speaker 1: ran into teams that can press them successfully. They've been

1190
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:40,720
Speaker 1: really bad trying to play through pressure. But that shouldn't

1191
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 1: be a problem here against Real Betis, who's in the

1192
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 1: bottom half of LALLAGAE in terms of high turnovers and

1193
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 1: pass per defensive action and MicroAge. Just got a huge

1194
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 1: upset win against one of our favorite teams, Athletic Billboo

1195
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:53,879
Speaker 1: this past weekend, so I think this is a really

1196
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 1: good spot for them, facing a real best team who's

1197
00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:58,920
Speaker 1: going to have a lot of travel a lot of

1198
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:02,320
Speaker 1: mileage coming into this and sil like Myorca plus five hundred.

1199
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,839
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to our best bets for

1200
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:08,240
Speaker 1: the Premier League slate. Anthony, what is your best bet

1201
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 1: in England this weekend.

1202
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 2: Leeds in Manchester United. Both teams to score and over

1203
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 2: two and a half parlayed minus one twenty. This is

1204
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 2: a stylistic matchup that has gone very well for Manchester

1205
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 2: United's attack in recent seasons. They put six on leads

1206
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 2: two years ago. They put five on them in the

1207
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 2: season opener. I know that came with some overperformance in

1208
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: terms of expected goals, but United's ability to hit balls

1209
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 2: over the top with Fernandez and Pagma into Sancho and

1210
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 2: Rashford and then get it into Ronaldo in the middle

1211
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 2: should be able to rip apart this leads team If

1212
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,320
Speaker 2: BI also makes some adjustments that may not work as well,

1213
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 2: But overall, I also think Leeds has a stylistic advantage.

1214
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 2: Their ability to pressure the ball and really wear out

1215
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 2: man United with a high energy, high intensity game similar

1216
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 2: to how Southampton did. Should make this a wide open,

1217
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,760
Speaker 2: high tempo, free flowing game that both teams will score

1218
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 2: and then I think United it's more likely to win

1219
00:56:57,640 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 2: it given the talent gap and disparity, but overall, I

1220
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,000
Speaker 2: think there'll definitely be multiple goals in this game. So

1221
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 2: both teams to score and over two and a half

1222
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:07,719
Speaker 2: parlayd minus one twenty is my best bet.

1223
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go Crystal Palace plus one at

1224
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 1: minus one forty five at home against Chelsea. You're not

1225
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:15,279
Speaker 1: going to find a better spot for Crystal Palace against

1226
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:17,920
Speaker 1: the top four side this season. The Eagles have been

1227
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 1: an incredible form at home all season long, plus eight

1228
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 1: point five expected gold differential at Selhurst Park, which is

1229
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: the fourth best mark in the Premier League, and they've

1230
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 1: actually performed really well against the top sides. They've faced Tottenham, Wolves,

1231
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 1: Liverpool and West Ham at home. In those four matches,

1232
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 1: they've won the expected goal of differential in every single

1233
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 1: one of them and have a plus four point eight

1234
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 1: expected gold differentials. So with Chelsea coming back from the

1235
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 1: FIFA Club World Cup where they had two pretty uninspiring

1236
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 1: performances in their routes, actually winning the FIFA World Club

1237
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 1: World Cup before that in the Premier League their performances

1238
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 1: were offensively at least, were left a lot to be desired.

1239
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 1: They failed to create over one expected goal against Manchester City,

1240
00:57:57,680 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 1: Brighton and Tottenham. So going up against Chrystal Palace defense

1241
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 1: which is top five in the Premier League and non

1242
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 1: penalty expected, goals allowed. This is a great spot for

1243
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace to not only get a result, but potentially

1244
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 1: win against Chelsea who's also in a lookhead spot with

1245
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 1: a Champions League match against Lil coming up this week.

1246
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: So I love Crystal Palace plus one at home at

1247
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 1: minus one forty five. All right, that'll do it for

1248
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 1: another episode of Wonder Goal. Thank you all for listening.

1249
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Monday morning breaking down the next

1250
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 1: round of Champions League matches, along with some Premier League

1251
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 1: matches and maybe throw in a few Europa League matches.

1252
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 1: Make sure to download the Action Network app. Leave us

1253
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 1: a five star review if you can. It really helps

1254
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,920
Speaker 1: us out. So for Anthony and myself, we'll catch you

1255
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:42,560
Speaker 1: all on Monday. Good luck this weekend.