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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Just about that action.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go throwing spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 4: It's a cash touchtime.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to winning.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible. Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, This is the ultimate combine if you want

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Speaker 4: to be and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week thirteen.

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Speaker 2: We are coming to you a little earlier this week.

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Speaker 2: I mean, listen, a special special week for betting, for family,

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Speaker 2: for all sorts of great stuff. But it is Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 2: so hopefully you can get some of those bets in

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Speaker 2: before your Thanksgiving afternoon nap. We will get to those

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Speaker 2: bets shortly, but first I've got just on trend one

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Speaker 2: fun thing that'll kind of just set up a conversation.

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Speaker 2: I've seen this talked about in other places. Everybody uses

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Speaker 2: very different data when it comes to betting, ticket data,

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Speaker 2: betting money data, things of that nature. For us at

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Speaker 2: Action Network, we have sixty percent of tickets this year

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Speaker 2: sitting at or more sitting at forty two and seventy

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Speaker 2: three against the spread thirty six point five percent. No

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Speaker 2: matter what data and where it comes from, it's a

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Speaker 2: crazy number. And the other number, which I just confirmed,

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Speaker 2: and it feels like, honestly, sometimes it feels like that

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Speaker 2: when you're betting every week, But eleven of the twelve

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Speaker 2: weeks below five hundred against the spread for those sixty

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Speaker 2: percent of tickets or more. Now, the interesting thing is

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Speaker 2: the reason I'm kind of talking about this to kind

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Speaker 2: of set the table here is public sides on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: have been really good historically. Favorites of crush forty and

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Speaker 2: twenty against the spread since two thousand and four. If

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Speaker 2: you look at just public sides, thirty six and twenty

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Speaker 2: five hundred ats are better every year since twenty fourteen, twelve,

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Speaker 2: the last thirteen. So you've got kind of two different

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Speaker 2: things coming at you from what we've seen so far

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Speaker 2: this season with a little bit of a topsy turvy

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Speaker 2: year and some historical stuff for Thanksgiving. Now, if you

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Speaker 2: look at DraftKings, they've got as of now we're recording

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Speaker 2: about Tuesday night, about fifty seven percent of the tickets

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Speaker 2: on Cincinnati sixty two percent of the tickets on the

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Speaker 2: Cowboys and at Action here we mirror that it's about

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Speaker 2: the same. So basically heading into the weekend, the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: and Bengals might be two sides that kind of fall

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Speaker 2: into this. Brandon, I'll bring you in now. Obviously don't

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Speaker 2: have to comment anything on really the ticket nature here,

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Speaker 2: but more or less the Bengals and the Cowboys. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna talk about the games in a second. But interesting

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Speaker 2: that they feel like they're popular.

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Speaker 5: It is interesting. I'm not so surprised with the Bengals.

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Speaker 5: Joe Burrow's back and it certainly we'll get to that

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Speaker 5: one in a bit. That one screams you got to

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Speaker 5: get out of the Bengals here, Like it feels like

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Speaker 5: a trappy line to me, just because of what we

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Speaker 5: know with Burrow. I'm surprised by Cowboys. You know, I

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Speaker 5: was on Chiefs on the look Ahead at three and

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Speaker 5: a half. Certainly, I even we literally talked about it.

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Speaker 5: There's no way you're going to put this below three.

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Speaker 5: They'd get so much money on Kansas City and it's

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Speaker 5: not below three, but it's at the three. I'm currently

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Speaker 5: at minus colv, which is not the goal on the

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Speaker 5: look ahead.

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Speaker 4: I did not.

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Speaker 5: Expect this to be a Dallas spot, and I don't know,

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Speaker 5: maybe I should have. I was on Dallas against the

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Speaker 5: Eagles last week, so I expected that result potentially to

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Speaker 5: go that way.

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Speaker 4: And if you expect that.

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Speaker 5: Then maybe that's the direction the line goes as well.

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Speaker 5: But a lot of public belief in the Cowboys and

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Speaker 5: maybe finally folks starting to disbelieve a little bit in

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: Not me.

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Speaker 5: I got the Chiefs shirt on today. I'm not backing

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Speaker 5: down from the Chiefs pick. We'll get into that. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: like you said, public favorites especially has been a very

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Speaker 5: popular trend and Thanksgiving is a very trendsy spot and

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Speaker 5: a very favorite spot for me over the years. So

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Speaker 5: that's kind of where I start with these games. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: it's a really good slate this year. I'll say that

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Speaker 5: we're gonna lean very heavily on Today's show into Thanksgiving

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Speaker 5: and Black Friday and really go deep on all four

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Speaker 5: of these games. You do the math, there's not a

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Speaker 5: lot of great teams left for Sunday, like it, be

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Speaker 5: prepared to kind of get your trip to fan nap

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Speaker 5: in on Sunday afternoon. It doesn't look like the greatest slate.

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Speaker 5: We'll get to some of those as well, but we're

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Speaker 5: definitely getting you know, the tweet up front here for

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Speaker 5: the holiday.

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, we talked about what percentage we wanted

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Speaker 2: to hit on Thursday Friday versus Sunday. It's a it's

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Speaker 2: a fair seventy thirty show, but it's that time of year.

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Speaker 2: time to get roll in here Week thirteen, but most

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Speaker 2: importantly Thanksgiving and Black Friday best bets. If you want

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Speaker 2: to tell some of the action here, look for the

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Speaker 2: clicksip link in the podcast and video description or go

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Speaker 2: to actionework dot com slash bet Now be et n

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Speaker 2: ow John.

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Speaker 3: As you think about all the people around the country

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Speaker 3: sitting down to enjoy Thanksgiving with their friends and their families,

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Speaker 3: we indeed have a lot to be thankful for. The

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Speaker 3: first Thanksgiving Day game ever played was here in Detroit

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Speaker 3: to Chicago Bears at Detroit, and to me, there's nothing better.

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Speaker 3: There's just certain things that go together, you know, the turkey,

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Speaker 3: the family, the tradition, football, and we have it all today.

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Speaker 2: Brandon, you got your pick six, your six bets, your

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Speaker 2: six money lines. But this week really different. What are

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Speaker 2: you doing?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so no pick six this week, So just kind

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Speaker 5: of turn back the curtain a little bit. So we're

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Speaker 5: recording lists Tuesday dinner time, which is about forty eight

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Speaker 5: hours ahead of where we normally would, so no pick

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Speaker 5: six this week. Instead, we're doing the Thanksgiving spread here

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Speaker 5: starting out right away, and that also means we have

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Speaker 5: to attack the slate a little differently because by Tuesday

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Speaker 5: midday there aren't really even a lot of lines up

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Speaker 5: for props, and you know, all the escalator type stuff

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Speaker 5: that I usually like to attack on a Sunday just

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Speaker 5: not really available yet. So there are those all four

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Speaker 5: Thanksgiving We're gonna go kind of Thanksgiving style here, So

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Speaker 5: we're gonna start with the main course. We'll do in

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Speaker 5: depth on all three Thanksgiving games and Black Friday as well,

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Speaker 5: kind of like we do our Monday in our previews.

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Speaker 5: So we'll do a preview the game. I've got to

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Speaker 5: pick a side on all four of the games. We'll

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Speaker 5: talk props and some of the kind of Thanksgiving fun

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Speaker 5: long shots at our sponsored draftking some of those sort

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Speaker 5: of things. Then we're gonna get to the sides and leftovers.

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Speaker 5: So that's the Sunday picks right the left slate. We'll

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Speaker 5: get to some of the sides then. And then also

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Speaker 5: no look ahead this week, because again too early in

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Speaker 5: the week to even have look ahead lines up. But

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Speaker 5: a little dessert perhaps for our Thanksgiving feast. I've got

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Speaker 5: a little tasty morsel maybe futures long shot to add

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Speaker 5: in at the end of our podcast that will go

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Speaker 5: with our Thanksgiving course. So yeah, main course, like you said,

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Speaker 5: have you on the Thanksgiving and Black Friday and we'll

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Speaker 5: get to a few other picks at.

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Speaker 4: The end and have some fun today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's nothing more like an entree when you talk

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Speaker 2: about the NFC North and the Lions, and of course

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Speaker 2: David Montgomery. So why don't you get us started? What

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Speaker 2: are you doing with that game?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Lions are below the key number here, which is

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Speaker 5: we talked about on Sunday night what I was hoping

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Speaker 5: to see here. So I'm going to take the Lions

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Speaker 5: minus two and a half against the Packers. I just

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Speaker 5: think the Lions are a little bit better at everything, honestly,

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Speaker 5: that not by much, just a little bit by dB away.

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Speaker 5: Detroit slately ahead offense and defense, way ahead in special teams.

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Speaker 5: They did lose in Week one to green but they

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Speaker 5: had won six of the last seven in this rivalry

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Speaker 5: before that, so this is a good matchup for Detroit

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Speaker 5: in recent years. Detroit thing is also healthier right now.

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Speaker 5: Green Bay's offense, in particular Tucker Craft, has been a

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Speaker 5: huge loss. Jacobs will see what we get with him

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Speaker 5: if he plays this game, but probably not his top version,

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Speaker 5: the line has been banged up, the receivers are still

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Speaker 5: banged up, or we're just not getting the top version

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Speaker 5: of the Packers offense right now. And I think too,

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Speaker 5: you look at the matchup here. We know by now

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Speaker 5: to a maddening degree at times. Honestly, both these teams

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Speaker 5: want to run the football. It'd be nice if the

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Speaker 5: Packers would pass a little bit more sometimes especially, but

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Speaker 5: both teams want to run. And here I think that

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Speaker 5: is advantage Detroit because here's the numbers. Lions offense eighth

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Speaker 5: in DVA rushing the ball versus sixteenth Packers defensively, so

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Speaker 5: top quarter of the league versus league average. Advantaged Detroit. Well,

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Speaker 5: when green Bay is the ball, it's about the opposite.

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Speaker 5: There's seventeenth rushing, so again average, the lines are top ten,

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Speaker 5: and again we don't know what Jacobs will be able

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Speaker 5: to give. So I think that's advantage both ways. For Detroit.

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Speaker 5: Lines are also number two most frequent attacking middle of

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Speaker 5: the field, top ten EPA per play. There that's an

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Speaker 5: area the Packers have not been great. Their linebackers can

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Speaker 5: be hit or miss. They're twenty seventh and epa per

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Speaker 5: play and a lot, a lot of volume middle of

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Speaker 5: the field. Also a lot of short passes, and of

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Speaker 5: course that's where Detroit loves to live too. Their number

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Speaker 5: one EPA per play, high frequency that is Amanara Saint Brown,

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Speaker 5: It's Jamior Gibbs is check down city and let those

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Speaker 5: guys go to work. I just think that is what

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Speaker 5: Detroit is built to do here. So these are actually

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Speaker 5: the top two defenses at home this season. Well, only

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Speaker 5: one team is at home on Thanksgiving, that of course

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Speaker 5: is Detroit. We know year after year the Packers on

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Speaker 5: the road are twenty second by DBA defensively, so a

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Speaker 5: huge drop off for them from second all the way

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Speaker 5: to almost bottom ten there. So I like the spot

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Speaker 5: for Detroit. Of course, the stat we always have to

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Speaker 5: mention when it's a Detroit home game Jared Goff with

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Speaker 5: the Lions indoors thirty six fourteen and a one ats

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Speaker 5: seventy two percent. The Lions have now won ten straight

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Speaker 5: games by six or more. So if this does get

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Speaker 5: back two Lions minus three, I'm still playing that number

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Speaker 5: as well. I don't really get too daunted by that.

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Speaker 5: And then a couple of Thanksgiving trends here. I always

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Speaker 5: have those on these games, you fade the Lions when

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Speaker 5: they're underdogs, you bet them as favorites. That's what the

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Speaker 5: last two decades have told us. Four and ten against

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Speaker 5: the spread, Detroit as an underdog four and two ATS

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Speaker 5: as a favorite, covering almost by a touchdown a game.

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Speaker 5: And of course you take anyone but Dallas as the

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Speaker 5: favored on Thanksgiving thirty one and eleven ATS seventy four

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Speaker 5: percent cover rate by over six points a game. So

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Speaker 5: Lions minus two and a half obviously get it below

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Speaker 5: the key number if you can, as always, and probably

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Speaker 5: two maybe the last chance to buy Detroit in the

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Speaker 5: division as non favorites, they're plus one seventy. This obviously

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Speaker 5: is a huge game for that because they're facing green Bay.

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Speaker 5: They can't lose this one. Green Bay would get the sweep,

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Speaker 5: that's not good news. But Chicago will get to on

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Speaker 5: the Friday game touchdown underdogs. So if the Lions win

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Speaker 5: as favorites, the Packers lose and the Bears lose, that's

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Speaker 5: gonna obviously dramatically change the division outcome as well. So

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Speaker 5: I think that's kind of a good escalator play here

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Speaker 5: if you do like the Lions, but gimme Detroit at

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Speaker 5: minus two and a half.

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Speaker 2: To me, the most interesting thing in the game is

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Speaker 2: the fact that both teams are missing their tight ends

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Speaker 2: and tight ends that are like really vital to different

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Speaker 2: parts of their offense, whether it be third down, whether

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Speaker 2: it be first downs. Like the Porta and Craft are

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Speaker 2: very very good players and really really like what they

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Speaker 2: do for the offense. I feel like the motor that

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Speaker 2: lets them move downfield is going to be kind of

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Speaker 2: the key here. So interesting to see what happens there.

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Speaker 2: I mean, since seventeen Packers four twelve and one ats

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Speaker 2: versus the Lions, and that's even with the Week one

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Speaker 2: beating of Detroit, so kind of interesting there. But to me,

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Speaker 2: the thing I wanted to talk about was Montgomery. So

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Speaker 2: I love the rush attempts here because I feel like they,

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Speaker 2: you know, Gibbs will get his work, but I think

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Speaker 2: some of that will be in the past game. So

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Speaker 2: Montgomery's had over nine and a half rush attempts eight

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Speaker 2: straight versus Green Bay and touchdown in for the last

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Speaker 2: six versus the Packers, So I do feel like that

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Speaker 2: bet interesting. Nonetheless, the thing that I saw when looking

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Speaker 2: at the Lions box score a little more Montgomery in

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Speaker 2: the past game sixteen seventeen routes. The last few weeks

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Speaker 2: kind of been seeing that a lot more of Gibbs obviously,

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Speaker 2: so found that kind of intriguing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So I'm actually in on Lions running backs here, on

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Speaker 5: both passing and rushing. So look, I wanted lines running

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Speaker 5: backs last week, I said, I leaned to Gibbs and

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Speaker 5: then didn't pull the trigger, and then Gibbs put up

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Speaker 5: like a thousand yards on the Giants.

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Speaker 4: So no, can't do here.

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Speaker 5: But it looks like Gibbs seems to be the with

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Speaker 5: Dan Camilcolling plays Montgomery last two weeks only five carries

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Speaker 5: and six carries in those games, but the snaps are

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Speaker 5: still there. It's been a bit negative game script and

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Speaker 5: I think too. I thought Gibbs last week because they

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Speaker 5: were better running outside against the Giants, which we saw

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Speaker 5: come to fruition. Well, this matchup, the Packers are much

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Speaker 5: worse defending inside arounds twenty fifth by Epapril play versus

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Speaker 5: six outside. Detroit's better inside and not to me, smells

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Speaker 5: like Montgomery, Like you said, he's been the guy against

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Speaker 5: Green Bay and just in five games since Gibbs was drafted,

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Speaker 5: which I think is fair to limit the sample here.

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Speaker 5: Montgomery's had eleven, fourteen, fifteen, seventeen, and thirty two carries,

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Speaker 5: so almost eighteen carries a game sixty eight yards. Not

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Speaker 5: great on the yardage, so I'm not gonna go crazy

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Speaker 5: with the yards bet here, and I thought, okay, give

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Speaker 5: me the rushing attempts. So ten rushing attempts is why

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Speaker 5: I looked at But that's minus one twenty five. I

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Speaker 5: don't love the median outcome there, especially pretty well used

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Speaker 5: with the lower role lately. But in thirty games since

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Speaker 5: Gibbs was drafted where Montgomery's had double digit carries, He's

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Speaker 5: a touchdown twenty three of those, so about three quarters

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Speaker 5: of the time. And he also has five touchdowns and

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Speaker 5: five Packers games as well in that stretch. So I'll

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Speaker 5: play the touchdown for Montgomery at plus one point forty,

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Speaker 5: and then I will play rushing attempts just the higher

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Speaker 5: line fifteen attempts at seven to one. Take a bit

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Speaker 5: of an upside swing there, and hope that if that

297
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Speaker 5: run game is going well inside, if we're right, let's

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Speaker 5: really be right. So that's the Montgomery play. I do

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Speaker 5: like Gibbs. I just like him. As a receiver in

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Speaker 5: this game. So the Packers have allowed four receptions or

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Speaker 5: more to running back, to all running backs, I should say,

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Speaker 5: in eight of eleven games this season.

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Speaker 4: What's weird is they've.

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Speaker 5: Actually allowed exactly four or five in all but one

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Speaker 5: of those eight games. The one is Detroit, who had

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Speaker 5: fourteen running back catches in Week one aga into the Packers,

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Speaker 5: including ten by Jamior Gibbs. Gibbs is actually getting more

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Speaker 5: snaps lately. And you mentioned Montgomery's routes are up. Gibbs's

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Speaker 5: routes are even further up. That to me is the

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Speaker 5: Samuel Porter thing. They got a funnel route somewhere, and

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Speaker 5: I think they're using these guys, even Moore's receivers. Gibbs

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Speaker 5: has had two straight weeks now where he's the second

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Speaker 5: highest line in first read target shares, presumably behind Amana

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Speaker 5: Saint Brown because that's how it goes. But he's kind

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Speaker 5: of become their second receiver. Jamison Williams still hasn't become

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Speaker 5: that he's the big play guy, but Gibbs is getting

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Speaker 5: a lot of volumes. So he's had all three of

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Speaker 5: his seasons now four games with five or more receptions,

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Speaker 5: So we'll play that five receptions at plus one point fifty.

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Speaker 5: Gibbs also has five games now where he's had at

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Speaker 5: least seven catches, including that Packers game Week one, and

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Speaker 5: last week he had eleven catches against the Giants, So

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Speaker 5: I will play seven Gibbs catches at six to one

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Speaker 5: odds as well. So Montgomery for watching volume and the

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Speaker 5: touchdown Gibbs receptions escalator five and seven.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think some of those angles you're discussing will

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Speaker 2: be good for the Props Futures Thanksgiving special section as well.

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Speaker 2: When you're looking at most yards most of this most that,

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Speaker 2: I think losing report on that offense kind of creates

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Speaker 2: an opportunity. But we can talk about that in a minute.

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Speaker 2: The other one, David Montgomery two touchdowns nine to one

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Speaker 2: at DraftKings. Kind of like that as well. I feel

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Speaker 2: like they usually go one way or the other. It's

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Speaker 2: been a lot of Gibbs lately. Like I feel like

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Speaker 2: inside runs they can give Montgomery two touchdowns, especially without

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Speaker 2: report in the red zone.

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Speaker 5: All right, Yeah, I'm never gonna be grudge a two

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Speaker 5: touchdown touch if I'm on the one touchdown. Weird thing

339
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Speaker 5: with Montgomery if you look at his game log, he

340
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Speaker 5: just has one touchdown exactly one game after game after game,

341
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Speaker 5: So I don't know what's happening with that, but nine

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Speaker 5: to one I can't argue with that in a game

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Speaker 5: here where we're hoping he does find the end zone once.

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Speaker 4: I can never be upset about a little escalator play.

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Speaker 2: And might I might be wrong about this, but I

346
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Speaker 2: feel like last year that they on Thanksgiving, he got

347
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Speaker 2: up there and didn't eat the turkey or wouldn't eat

348
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Speaker 2: the turkey, and there was some like viral clip about that.

349
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Speaker 2: So we'll make sure to get that back again when

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Speaker 2: he scores too this week. All right, let's keep going here,

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Speaker 2: Casey Dallas. So Casey's sitting at like three and a

352
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Speaker 2: half over under highest on Thanksgiving and Black Friday at

353
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Speaker 2: fifty two and a half. We had talked about it before, Dallas,

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Speaker 2: a popular pick six, sitting at sixty nine percent of

355
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Speaker 2: bets for US fifty two I mean, sorry, sixty two,

356
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Speaker 2: sixty three percent at DraftKings. What are you doing in

357
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Speaker 2: this crucial game for both teams? Real fun one, This

358
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Speaker 2: might be the most like watch game of all time. Honestly,

359
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Speaker 2: these two teams.

360
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Speaker 5: Honestly, it might be in a certainly, both teams helped

361
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Speaker 5: it out, with the Chiefs get the comeback win against

362
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Speaker 5: the Colts, Dallas gets the huge comeback against the Eagles,

363
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Speaker 5: and because of that, this line ends up kind of

364
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Speaker 5: sticking really with Dallas. But like I said, I'm on

365
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Speaker 5: the Chiefs here. Still some minus three is out there,

366
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Speaker 5: so I will happily take it at the key number.

367
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Speaker 5: I'm not gonna be too upset if I have to

368
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Speaker 5: play it past that number, as I already took that

369
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Speaker 5: on the look ahead. So Dallas got the big Philly upset.

370
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Speaker 5: I feel like that is what's happening to the line here.

371
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Speaker 5: But I thought the Chiefs were actually even more dominant

372
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Speaker 5: in their game against the Colts. Four hundred and ninety

373
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Speaker 5: four yards to two hundred and fifty five in that game,

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Speaker 5: thirty three to ten in first downs, ten first downs

375
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Speaker 5: for a Colts offense that's been so good, ninety one

376
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 5: to fifty plays. They held the Colts to twenty points

377
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,400
Speaker 5: on eleven drives. These are all numbers we said Sunday night,

378
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Speaker 5: but are helpful to remember again of just how good

379
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Speaker 5: a win that was for the Chiefs. And so I

380
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Speaker 5: think that's being a little bit overlooked because you know,

381
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Speaker 5: we all got to watch more of Dallas Philly. There

382
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Speaker 5: was nothing else on in the afternoon, and we saw

383
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 5: the huge comebacks. It resonates more. But I thought Kansas

384
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Speaker 5: City probably that was their best game of the season.

385
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Speaker 5: And that's sort of what the Chiefs do, is that

386
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Speaker 5: they peak late in the season. That's what they've done

387
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Speaker 5: now year after year. And the Chiefs offense still doesn't

388
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Speaker 5: really feel great, but I think they're still better by

389
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Speaker 5: the numbers DVAA. They're better running and pass then Dallas here,

390
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 5: and I think it doesn't feel great because they never

391
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Speaker 5: take the home run swing right, and we want mahomes

392
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Speaker 5: to be fun. We want them to do the six

393
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Speaker 5: touchdowns on Thanksgiving thing. And it's not a lot of

394
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Speaker 5: home run swings. It's single, single, single, it's just like

395
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Speaker 5: just move the ball, move the chains. But against this defense,

396
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Speaker 5: I think that's gonna work. The Chiefs are top five

397
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Speaker 5: and success rate, Dallas is thirty first and success rate defensively,

398
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Speaker 5: so that to me reads like an offense that can

399
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,359
Speaker 5: just run the ball on first down, up, second and five,

400
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Speaker 5: run the ball again, third and two. Oh, another third

401
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,400
Speaker 5: down conversion like it's gonna be boring.

402
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Speaker 4: But that is what the Chiefs do. Is that they got.

403
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Speaker 5: Six times into the red zone against the Colts, they

404
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 5: would have won comfortably, they were just one of six,

405
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Speaker 5: So hopefully we get some better red zone production here.

406
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Speaker 5: And honestly, I think the Chiefs might hit the deep

407
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Speaker 5: ball as well. They are top seven EPA per play

408
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 5: on deep passes and the Cowboys are second worst there

409
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:02,719
Speaker 5: as well. So I know talk about Dallas defense improving. Okay,

410
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 5: well since the bye week since Quinn Williams. Who have

411
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Speaker 5: they played. They played the Raiders, who have since fired

412
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Speaker 5: their offensive coordinator because they scored ten points last week,

413
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Speaker 5: so let's maybe not make too much of beating up

414
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Speaker 5: on the Raiders. And they played the Eagles, who have

415
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Speaker 5: dumped on all season for having inconsistent offense and who,

416
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Speaker 5: by the way, started touchdown touchdown touchdown in that game.

417
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Speaker 5: So is Dallas improved, Yes, absolutely, Improvement does not necessarily

418
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Speaker 5: mean great or even good. Yet I think they're better,

419
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Speaker 5: like the Chiefs defense is also improving at the same

420
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Speaker 5: time this year, as good as they just looked against

421
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Speaker 5: the Colts, and so I think that they're set up well.

422
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Speaker 5: The Chiefs allowed three receiving touchdowns in the opener to

423
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 5: the Chargers in Brazil, they've only allowed three since then.

424
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Speaker 5: So if you can limit Pickens and Lamb, if you

425
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 5: can play a lot of too high safety, which is

426
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 5: what SPAGS usually does with the Chiefs, Dallas has blown

427
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 5: up single high this year. But I don't think they're

428
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,239
Speaker 5: gonna get me those opportunities. And I just think this

429
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 5: sits well for the Chiefs here. So time honor tradition.

430
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Speaker 5: On Thanksgiving we fade the Cowboys. That's like the easiest

431
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Speaker 5: play on the entire NFL slate. Most years since twenty eleven,

432
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 5: Cowboys are three and eleven ATS on Thanksgiving twenty one percent, because,

433
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Speaker 5: like you said, Evan, everyone wants to bet on the

434
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 5: Cowboys on Thanksgiving, so they are not the team to

435
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 5: beat on. Non Dallas favorites seventy four percent ATS on Thanksgiving.

436
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 5: And I thought, honestly, since it's the Chiefs, we'd get

437
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,160
Speaker 5: a public favorite spot here. Doesn't sound like we are

438
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 5: so public non Dallas favorites eighty percent ats. Doesn't seem

439
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 5: like we're going to go that direction. I don't really care.

440
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 5: I'm comfortable with the Chiefs either way. Give me the

441
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:47,680
Speaker 5: Chiefs minus three.

442
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't care at all. I've heard that multiple times.

443
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: I mean, listen when you talk about road favorite, road

444
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: favorites on Thanksgiving twenty five and one straight up since

445
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: two thousand and four, only lost coming back in two

446
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: thousand and nine, so that one is kind of held

447
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 2: true and it's been talked about. We talked about in

448
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 2: the Favorites this morning, like home teams on Thanksgiving, maybe

449
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 2: not as much of an home deeled advantage like other

450
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: things going on the road Thanksgiving stuff, especially a better

451
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: team in that situation twenty and six against the number

452
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 2: as well. Interesting spot here with Mahomes. So Mahomes faced

453
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 2: a team on short rest. Obviously Mahomes on short rest

454
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 2: as well, regardless of he is as well, He's nineteen

455
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 2: and three in his career. He's won thirteen straight, last

456
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 2: loss coming in twenty twenty one, So regardless of if

457
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 2: he's on Thursday or whatever it is, when his opponent

458
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 2: doesn't have enough time to prepare for Kansas City, he's

459
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 2: won thirteenth straight. And to go with your angle on

460
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: Kansas City, the one thing I might look at, I'm

461
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: a little scared of Cowboys' second half I mean Dallas

462
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: one in seven against the first half spread on Thanksgiving

463
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen, two and thirteen last fifteen since twenty ten,

464
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 2: and you get that under three, so case minus two

465
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 2: and a half first half. So maybe that's a look.

466
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 2: And in terms of the props, I kind of like

467
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 2: where you're headed here because this guy has been the

468
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 2: focal of the offense. What are you doing there? Yeah?

469
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 5: I want Chiefs passing overs here. So Rashie Rice, I

470
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,959
Speaker 5: think is here talking about and Patrick Mahomes. I got

471
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 5: a couple of props on each, and I'll say this,

472
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 5: these are probably my least favorite props of the ones

473
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 5: I'm gonna give.

474
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 4: Out, just because they're really juiced.

475
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 5: I think everyone wants to bet against Dallas and everyone

476
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 5: wants to play overs on Thanksgiving, so the juice is

477
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 5: pretty rough on these, but I still think they're pretty good.

478
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 5: Rashi Rice as a touchdown guy, that's where I'm gonna

479
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 5: go with this one. Dallas has allowed eighteen wide receiver

480
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 5: touchdowns already this season, three more than any team especially

481
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 5: to wide receiver ones twelve touchdowns in eleven games, so

482
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 5: obviously better than one per game, including two to two

483
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 5: and three touchdown games. Eight of eleven wide receiver ones

484
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 5: have had at least a score against the Cowboys. That's

485
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 5: clearly Rashiah Rice. He is the wide receiver one in

486
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 5: Kansas City. He's scored a touchdown in three or five

487
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 5: this year, five of the last seven now. And also

488
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,479
Speaker 5: I think he's actually due for more scoring. He has

489
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 5: already eight or eight targets inside the ten yard line

490
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 5: that ranks third among all receivers for the entire season.

491
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 5: He missed the first five games, and he's third in

492
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 5: targets inside the ten HOO'SI behind DeVante Adams and Aman

493
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 5: Ross Saint Brown, who have nineteen combined touchdowns on their

494
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 5: targets inside the ten. Rashi Race has three. So that's

495
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 5: the sort of volume that he's seeing and should be

496
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 5: getting more of. It's already priced in a little bit.

497
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 5: It's minus one twenty five, so you're not gonna see

498
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 5: me play a touchdown bet like that too often.

499
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 4: But he's the guy alike here.

500
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 5: And then, like you said, with the two touchdowns five

501
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 5: to one, anytime you play one touchdown, you should think

502
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 5: about two. And then I think Mahomes as well. Dallas

503
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 5: has allowed the most passing touchdowns twenty four of any team,

504
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 5: seven of eleven games at least two five of elevens

505
00:24:55,760 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 5: almost half at least three touchdowns, including such luminary as

506
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 5: Bow Knicks and Caleb Williams putting up four passing touchdowns

507
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,479
Speaker 5: on them. Weird Mahomes numbers this year. He's only had

508
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 5: four games all season with more than one passing touchdown.

509
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 5: That's not an MVP season. But when he does go

510
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 5: over one, he's not at any two touchdown games all year.

511
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 5: He goes straight for the Big Game three three, three

512
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 5: and four touchdowns, so I'm going straight for the Big Game.

513
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 5: Two three touchdowns for Mahomes is plus one point fifty four.

514
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 5: And again, these are pretty juice numbers considering the past,

515
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 5: like the Chiefs offense, where we're sort of betting on

516
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 5: the Chiefs looking like what we think the Chiefs should

517
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 5: look like. That's not how they usually play this year,

518
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 5: but they don't usually get to play the Cowboys, so

519
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 5: I'm kind of hoping that that evens things out and

520
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 5: gives us a little value on Rashid and I'm Mahomes.

521
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you get Pa Checko back hopefully, so that

522
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 2: probably takes away the ability of maybe a Mahomes scramble

523
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: for a touchdown that would ruin your three, So you

524
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 2: assume all of them would come through the air the

525
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 2: stat that you had, which I had as well, which

526
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 2: just shows how voke like the offense is all around

527
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 2: Rashi Rice Rush attempts plus targets inside the ten since

528
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 2: week seven, Rashi Rice has ten, Kareem Hunt has ten,

529
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 2: Kelsey four, Brishard four, Pachecko three, So Rice tied with

530
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 2: Hunt in Rush attempts and targets inside the ten since

531
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 2: week seven when he came back. So to me, he

532
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 2: is everything for them in that window. And I think, honestly,

533
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 2: for some of us, probably everything we thought worthy might

534
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 2: be this year is kind of what Rashi Rice is

535
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 2: at the moment. So also Dallas thirtieth versus wide receiver

536
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 2: ones DVOA. So this one to me just feels like

537
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 2: they're going to try to get him the ball in

538
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: every situation, and it's like it's pivotal time. There's no

539
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 2: you know, not running plays, not doing this like Kansas

540
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: City needs to win to stay in it. So you're

541
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 2: gonna see the kitchen sink. In my opinion, Bengals and Ravens.

542
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: It's the night game Ravens right now, sitting in my

543
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 2: seven point favorite fifty one and half. The thing that

544
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: it's worth bringing up is probably looking at the weather.

545
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 2: It is about eleven mile an hour wins and you're

546
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 2: gonna get a cold game. It's about thirty two degrees

547
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 2: in Baltimore that night. And of course the story is

548
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow welcome back, most likely anticipated to start in

549
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 2: this one. And other than that, I mean, what are

550
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 2: you doing here? How are you attacking this AFC North

551
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: matchup where I mean, the Bengal is pretty much done

552
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:25,959
Speaker 2: but the Ravens needed for their lungs.

553
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a really tricky one for me. So

554
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 5: I'm gonna do a parlay here. I'm gonna play the

555
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 5: under with a Ravens cover, and I do see a book, Ryan,

556
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 5: get an under fifty one and a half and a

557
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 5: Ravens minus six and a half get below that key

558
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 5: number if we can at plus two sixty six. So

559
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 5: let me tell you how I got there. And it's

560
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 5: kind of tricky. So obviously, like you said, Burrow looks

561
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 5: like he is back, but no t Higgins and no

562
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 5: Trey Hendricks in so you'll rather take Burrow if you

563
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 5: get either side of that equation, but those are real

564
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 5: losses for them as well. And then why is tricky

565
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 5: is we don't really know what Burrow will be, but

566
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 5: we don't really know what Lamar is going to be

567
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 5: right now either. It's not playing like himself. The Ravens

568
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 5: have won five in a row, so we're kind of

569
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 5: just be like, oh, the Ravens are back now, but

570
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 5: last three wins one score wins over the Vikings, the Browns,

571
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 5: and the Jets, Like it's not exactly blowing teams away

572
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 5: or really impressing. All right, Well, one score win is

573
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 5: going to be a Bengals cover, So why I'm on

574
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 5: the Ravens side. So Bengals offense trending up. We were

575
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 5: the Bengals.

576
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 4: Podcast last week, we got the cover, we took the cover.

577
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 5: Then top five DVA offensively last six games, and of

578
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 5: course we know how good Burrow is as an underdogs

579
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 5: seventeen and three ats as a dog of three or more,

580
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 5: he's one outright eight of the last thirteen. Normally, I'm

581
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 5: just all over this spot, including in this rivalry. For

582
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 5: the last five meetings have been one score games. The

583
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 5: last two years are averaging sixty three points a game.

584
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 5: So what in the world am I doing taking the

585
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 5: Ravens favored and the under here when this looks like

586
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 5: a shootout? So the Bengals offense wasn't that great against

587
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 5: the Patriots last week. Trust me, I watched a lot

588
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 5: of it. That was my big spot. And Burrow, I

589
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,719
Speaker 5: think it's kind of variable. We don't really know what

590
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 5: we can expect from him. He does when he's not whole,

591
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 5: limit the offense a little bit, the sort of play

592
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 5: calling that they can call around him. There's no t Higgins,

593
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 5: so that adds a variable in as well. And also

594
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 5: the offense has been way better at home, top five

595
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 5: offense at home, bottom five on the road for this season.

596
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 4: Baltimore.

597
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 5: Meanwhile, as much as we focus on Cincinnati's offense improving,

598
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 5: Baltimore's defense has trended wayh up. We kind of forget,

599
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,959
Speaker 5: but they were the Bengals defense early in the season,

600
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 5: like they were the team that will just like play

601
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 5: anyone you can in fantasy against them. Since the bye week,

602
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 5: their top five defense thirteen point four points a game

603
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 5: allowed in these five games that they've won, and the

604
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 5: Bengals offense. I think it is a bad matchup versus

605
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 5: the Ravens as well. On Baltimore's behalf, the Bengals face

606
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 5: the most too high safety of any team in the league,

607
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 5: but their thirtieth and EPA per play on that and

608
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 5: Baltimore since moving Cal Hamilton around, I think that's an

609
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 5: area they've been really good, especially is playing too high,

610
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 5: trying to limit some of those deep balls and getting

611
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 5: picked apart that way. So to me, you mentioned the weather,

612
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 5: I do think that comes into play here, that the

613
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 5: weather a blustery night, cold game. That's a Raven script.

614
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 5: To me, that is a run the ball script, and

615
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 5: the Bengals honestly should be able to run a little bit,

616
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 5: but kind of refuse to commit to it. I think

617
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 5: this is a good spot for the Ravens to run.

618
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 5: Bengals number one in yards allowed to running backs, number

619
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 5: one fantasy points. I was all ready to just do

620
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 5: Derrick Henry props, but they're like juice to high heaven.

621
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 5: So you got to pay like minus two hundred for touchdown,

622
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 5: basically one hundred yards if you wanted the yardage. But

623
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 5: the Bengals play a ton of light box defensively and

624
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 5: they're dead last EPA per play. Baltimore never gets to

625
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 5: face light box. If they get that here, they're second

626
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 5: lowest in the league, but they're number two EPA for

627
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 5: play when they do get the shot. So I think Bengals,

628
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 5: I don't trust them to be able to stop the run.

629
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 5: They're also worse against outside run, where Baltimore is at

630
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 5: its best so far on the season. Bengals all a

631
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 5: ton of explosives. The Ravens early in the season hit

632
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 5: a ton of explosives and that's sort of dried up.

633
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 5: But maybe this is the spot that they find a few,

634
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,959
Speaker 5: and then the Thanksgiving trends is really kind of what

635
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 5: got me to the spot where I'm at, which is

636
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 5: again non Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving seventy four percent in

637
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 5: night games alone fourteen and four against the spread favorites

638
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 5: seventy eight percent, and night game unders have also been

639
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 5: the spot twelve and six on Thanksgiving evening, including eight

640
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 5: of the last ten and going under. Now, these teams

641
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 5: are over teams. They're both seven and ford to the

642
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 5: over on the season, and they've been over in the

643
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 5: matchup lately.

644
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 4: But I think if you look big picture.

645
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 5: And say Okay, if I think the Ravens do well,

646
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 5: what did they do well and why? I think they

647
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 5: limited the Bengals offense in a way that was unexpected,

648
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 5: the road offense missing T Higgins, and they kind of

649
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 5: ran the ball did the cold weather thing got out ahead,

650
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 5: and in that case the Bengals aren't scoring what's expected,

651
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 5: then you like the under and then the Ravens have

652
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 5: a better shot to cover. So I'm gonna play them

653
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 5: both together tepidly, but Ravens minus six and a half

654
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 5: under fifty one and a half.

655
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 4: It's plus two sixty six, and I.

656
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 5: Think I'll back the trends, but I'm gonna play them

657
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 5: together and not super aggressively.

658
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'll touch the total first. Obviously you mentioned

659
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: it over eight and one in their last nine meetings

660
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 2: in this series, but to me, one of those nine

661
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: had a total of even forty nine or more. You're

662
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: getting fifty one and a half right now, which gets

663
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: vital when you get up there when you talk about

664
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 2: two and a half points plus, So understand the angle there.

665
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 2: Talking about Baltimore, I thought this was kind of interesting.

666
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 2: So cold temperatures, obviously Burrow does fine in that, but

667
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 2: Lamar's played at home thirty five degrees or less six

668
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: times six and oh straight up six and oh against

669
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: the spread, winning by almost twenty points per game, So

670
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: Baltimore really dominated in that space. I think you're right, though.

671
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: This Baltimore team right now a little different. Lamar's ankle

672
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 2: looks weird. The offense can't get it together. It honestly

673
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: looks like they have switched teams from the beginning of

674
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: the season and when you talk about defense and offense

675
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 2: and right now they just can't get it right. Which

676
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 2: this will lead me to one of my bets. I

677
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: like for the Thanksgiving specials, but I think this is

678
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 2: a Derek Henry type game. Like I just think at

679
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: any point this will be the time against the Cincinnati

680
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 2: pass rush without Hendrixon out there, Like there's no need

681
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: for Lamar to go crazy. So I do think this

682
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 2: is a Henry game and that with that is perfect

683
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: for Baltimore to cover as a favorite and for the

684
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 2: game to go under. So completely get that. What do

685
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 2: you got for your props here?

686
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would love I don't mind if you want

687
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 5: to do like Henry, one hundred yards and a touchdown

688
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 5: and a win. That was a bet that I made

689
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 5: offense last year, but that I think is only actually

690
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 5: hit once this season for them, So just not quite

691
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 5: the same Derrick Henry. Maybe this is where he kind

692
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,919
Speaker 5: of moves back that direction because the lines were so bad.

693
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 5: I end up looking where else can I invest in

694
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 5: Baltimore if I like them?

695
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 2: Here?

696
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 5: Well, it's the Bengals. So how about a tight end?

697
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 5: The Bengals are continue to be awful against tight ends.

698
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,879
Speaker 5: They've allowed the most fantasy points their worst guy dv

699
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 5: Away worse against short passes. The Bengals have already allowed

700
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 5: thirteen touchdowns to tight ends on the season, which is

701
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 5: more than any team allowed all of last season. In fact,

702
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 5: they've allowed eleven the last seven games alone. So which

703
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,760
Speaker 5: tight end, Well Ravens fans would beg you not Mark Andrews.

704
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 5: The dude can't catch anything right now. I'm taking Mark Andrews.

705
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 5: Isaiah likely not totally healthy right now. So Andrews did

706
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 5: drop a big one last week, like he is known

707
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 5: to do at times, but he also played his most

708
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 5: snaps since Week six, about two thirds of the snaps,

709
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 5: a little bit more in eleven personnel, a little bit

710
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 5: more in the field, and he still is Lamar's guy,

711
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 5: I think in the red zone. So a touchdown in

712
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 5: four of eight games with Lamar Jackson this year now

713
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 5: fourteen of his last twenty, so seventy percent, we get

714
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 5: him at plus one twenty five. I'll take Andrews for

715
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 5: the touchdown, and then this one is kind of just

716
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 5: counter everything I've said about the game. But it's hard

717
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 5: to overlook what Jamar Chase did to the Ravens last

718
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 5: year in those two games. Lest you forgot ten catches

719
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 5: one hundred and ninety three yards and two scores, well wait,

720
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 5: that's just one of the games. The other one eleven catches,

721
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 5: two hundred and sixty four yards and three scores. Remember

722
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 5: that we all watched that one. I think it maybe

723
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,879
Speaker 5: it was a Thursday night game. That's like four hundred

724
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 5: and fifty yards and five touchdowns. That's half a season

725
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 5: for most good receivers. So I obviously don't expect that

726
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 5: to happen. I would not parlay this pick with my

727
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 5: Ravens in under because it's very much against the script.

728
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 4: But Chase does hit that big.

729
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 5: Number sometimes one hundred and forty one yards or more

730
00:35:56,719 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 5: eight times the last three seasons, so If that is right,

731
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 5: I'll take one hundred and fifty yards at seven to one.

732
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 5: And again I'm not going to add that you get

733
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 5: a huge negative boost into your same game, Parlay. You

734
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 5: put that in, but you shouldn't. If Chase sits on

735
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 5: hundred fifty yards, I don't like the under and I

736
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 5: don't like the Ravens covering, So don't put that in.

737
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 5: But I don't mind playing it because if I'm wrong

738
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 5: about Ravens under and covering, maybe it's because Burrow and

739
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 5: Chase were that good again, and then this kind of

740
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 5: gives a bit of insurance on the other side. So

741
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 5: Chase one hundred and fifty yards at seven to one

742
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 5: and then Mark Andrews four touchdown.

743
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 2: I don't mind like one hundred and twenty five and

744
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 2: the Ravens to cover in the under. But I understand

745
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 2: what you mean. And I said that quietly because I

746
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 2: understand what you're saying. But it is an interesting concept

747
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,919
Speaker 2: because Chase could go off and the Bengals still could

748
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: not be in this game laid for a multitude of reasons.

749
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: If you look at the last three games, Chase is

750
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 2: played with aute Higgins seventeen targets, eleven targets. Eleven targets,

751
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: so if you assume he's going to be peppered here

752
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: and four receptions on six targets in the first half

753
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 2: of all three of those games, so early on, it's

754
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: gonna be all Jamar Chase here, especially after getting the

755
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: week off considerably, so that is completely true. And then

756
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 2: the Mark Andrews angle, this is what I saw kind

757
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 2: of interesting, which would be seven receptions on eight targets

758
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter of the last two games versus

759
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 2: the Bengals. So even if you don't see it early

760
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 2: from Lamar, like when it comes to tooth and nail,

761
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 2: on this one, he's going to go to Andrews for

762
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 2: multitude reasons. Especially Andrews, like you said, a lot more

763
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: time out there in terms of pass maps than likely lately,

764
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 2: so I believe that will continue. All right, let's keep

765
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 2: going here. This is gonna be the fun one. Thanksgiving

766
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: specials long shots. However you want to do it, I'll

767
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 2: let you go first because I kind of have a

768
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 2: few different angles here and I'll let you kind of

769
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 2: quick hit me with you like it or you hate it.

770
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 5: So yeah, So if you want to just do a

771
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 5: Thanksgiving parlay with the picks I've put out already, So

772
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 5: Lions two and a half, Chiefs three, and then the

773
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 5: Ravens combo, Ravens cover and the under. So you're taking

774
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 5: all three favorites plus the Ravens under. You just want

775
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,479
Speaker 5: to parlay that together. That is at plus twelve thirty five,

776
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 5: so you can start there. But then DraftKings has a

777
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 5: bunch of these really fun specials up. You can bet

778
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 5: on most passing yards on Thanksgiving, most receiving yards. I

779
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 5: like two of the receiving yards ones. I'm gonna play

780
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 5: the most running back receiving yards and the most tight

781
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 5: end receiving yards, and they shouldn't surprise you. I'm gonna

782
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 5: take Jamir Gibbs and Mark Andrews, so Gibbs plus one

783
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 5: ninety for most running back receiving yards. We're already on

784
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 5: him to get volume there. Chase Brown, I think is

785
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 5: probably the biggest threat, but really not a lot of

786
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 5: great competition there, so I like that one.

787
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 4: A lot.

788
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 5: Andrews yards eh not been great this year. You're not

789
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 5: gonna enjoy looking at his game log, but four to

790
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 5: one against the Bengals, basically, I'm just gonna take a

791
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 5: shot at the at the number and the matchup with

792
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 5: Andrews and maybe turns back the clock and gets a

793
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 5: long catch or two. And then last one for me,

794
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 5: I love on Thanksgiving to do the triple crown So passing,

795
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,240
Speaker 5: rush and receiving yardage leaders.

796
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:03,919
Speaker 4: So Derrick Henry.

797
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 5: Is like the free space to me as far as like,

798
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 5: I'm starting there at least with him on this one.

799
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 5: And then I'm gonna go with both Chiefs. So we

800
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 5: played them as well, Mahomes and Rashi. I'll play them together.

801
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 5: Obvious correlation that if Mahomes' yardage is high, where she

802
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,439
Speaker 5: probably goes up as well. So after DraftKings, the two

803
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 5: Chiefs plus Derrick Henry is forty to one for the

804
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 5: triple crowns. So those are the three I found. What

805
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 5: do you like from what you're seeing?

806
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you explain kind of all the intricacies of

807
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 2: each of these categories. Most QB rushing yards. Lamar still

808
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 2: sitting at plus one twenty five with this group, Like,

809
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 2: I just don't feel he hasn't been running lately. Everything

810
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 2: feels off in terms of his run game. Every single week.

811
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 2: There is nothing on the field that tells you to

812
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 2: make this bet except for the fact that everyone else

813
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 2: just doesn't feel like he could get thirty yards and

814
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,280
Speaker 2: win this, and he's plus one twenty five just feels

815
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 2: off priced. When you mentioned most rushing yards. I also

816
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: feel like Derrick Henry's kind of miss priced. And it's

817
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: also really fun because he's the night game, so you

818
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 2: at least get to know what you need and can

819
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 2: watch that game in the freezing cold. Hopefully gets a

820
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 2: ton of carries, But that's sitting at like two to one.

821
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: The other one I like in that category is longest

822
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 2: field goal, So Aubrey's sitting at two twenty and McPherson

823
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: at four twenty five. Either hits you make money, But

824
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 2: I kind of like both of those options. You mentioned

825
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: Andrews for tight end receiving yards, I didn't see Gasiki

826
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 2: even listed. They've got Fanton Hudson. I thought that's just

827
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 2: an interesting option. He is te one. He should be

828
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: out there get the most of the looks you have burrowback,

829
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: so wait to see a number there. If it's like

830
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 2: twenty to one or something like that, maybe that's worth

831
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 2: a shot. Here's a good thing. So I also looked

832
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: at the triple Crown Market. You and I are on

833
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 2: the same page with the quarterback, which feels good. I

834
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 2: like Mahomes as well. Instead of Rashi Rice, I went

835
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 2: a little bit off. I went Amanra. I think there

836
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 2: is a chance he could go nuts in this game,

837
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 2: especially with out Laporta and what maybe they fall behind

838
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 2: to Green Bay. So I like am and then I

839
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 2: used three different running backs. I agree Henry's the best

840
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 2: option thirty five to one would be pat Amanran Henry.

841
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 2: I also put Gibbs there. If people put Gibbs there,

842
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: he's sixty to one. Obviously, the worry would be the

843
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 2: receiving part, so he doesn't win the rushing title in

844
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 2: this day. And then the off brand one would be

845
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 2: Chase Brown, Like I think there is a chance he's

846
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 2: been rushing really well lately, Like there is a chance

847
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 2: of that. That's eighty to one. I like that the least.

848
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 2: But I agree pat Amanra Henry at thirty five to one,

849
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: and yours of pat Rashid Rice and Henry at forty

850
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: to one. Those feel like the two ones I like

851
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 2: the most.

852
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think a lot of those makes sense.

853
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 5: I think probably honestly, I should be playing the Henry

854
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 5: rushing yards one as confident as I am on him

855
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,360
Speaker 5: running in this game, and I literally called him a

856
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 5: free space in my triple Crown spot. So pat two

857
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 5: to one. That probably makes sense. I would say two

858
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 5: on the kicking one. I knows DraftKings has an over

859
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 5: underfield goals on Thanksgiving, and then it's like they're just

860
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 5: begging me to bet this. It's over under ten and

861
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 5: a half field goals and then there's a twelve plus

862
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 5: than a fourteen plus.

863
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 4: They've created a field goals.

864
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 5: Escalator for me on Thanksgiving. I would take it too,

865
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 5: except the only thing holding me back a little bit

866
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 5: is the weather at night, because Tyler Loop is kicking

867
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 5: like three field goals a game for the Ravens right now.

868
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 5: But because of the weather, I'm not gonna go too

869
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 5: crazy there. I counted in my head twelve is what

870
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 5: I think then outcome will be. But to your two

871
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 5: long field goal ones, I'm gonna feel much better about

872
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 5: Brandon Aubrey kicking a seventy yarder in Dallas in the

873
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 5: middle of the day. Then I am McPherson on the

874
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 5: road in Baltimore with the blustery wins and everything. So

875
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 5: I think I would have factored the wind in a

876
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 5: little bit on that one, and I like the Aubrey.

877
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 4: Look, we know he can hit from wherever.

878
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the other one would be baits indoors

879
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: like he can kick long ones. But yeah, those are

880
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 2: the angles here. Let me just throw out a few

881
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 2: more and then I'll give you my absolute favorite and

882
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 2: then we can move on. Under eighteen and a half

883
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 2: total touchdowns. Felt like that's intriguing, especially with some of

884
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 2: these totals. To me, you're a little inflated and you

885
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 2: could get some unders here. So under eighteen and a

886
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 2: half a little high Inde Detroit, I think you can

887
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 2: honestly play highest score, lowest score, and biggest blowout and

888
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 2: all at plus prices because I think that game has

889
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 2: just a lot of different variables in terms of how

890
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 2: it could go. And then here are the two just

891
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: kind of long shots, one more long shot than the other,

892
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 2: but all teams to score a rushing touchdown at eight

893
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,280
Speaker 2: to one. I'll always bet that, especially in these cold

894
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: weather months with these just three games, feels intriguing. Here's

895
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 2: the bet I like the most, and it kind of

896
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 2: goes back to what we talked about with Baltimore, but

897
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 2: it always feels like a sucker bet, but I have

898
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: to play it. Derrick Henry ten plus rushing yards in

899
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 2: each quarter is plus three hundred, and to me, it's

900
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 2: a bet with probably one quarter. Like he's gonna do

901
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 2: it in the first quarter. In my opinion, I think

902
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 2: the second quarter and the third quarter become the hardest.

903
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get one and a half to

904
00:43:56,160 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 2: two drives probably in both quarters. I think the the

905
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: third quarters tricky, depending on the coin tos. Okay, everyone

906
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 2: understands the circumstances here, but I think Derrick Henry goes

907
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 2: crazy and I think there's at least an opportunity there,

908
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: and plus three hundred felt a little nice for this one,

909
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: especially if I like his upside.

910
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, I get burned on these every quarter things. Are

911
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 5: you like in the NBA you get the every quarters

912
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 5: or the every game of a playoff series. They're fun

913
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 5: and they make sense in theory, and it's you're literally

914
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 5: you're parlaying four bets together, so you got it.

915
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 4: I like the idea.

916
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 5: We like investing in Derrick Henry, and we don't love

917
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 5: the juice that we're getting in some of the numbers,

918
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 5: So it's a good idea to kind of look for

919
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 5: some of the longer stuff and like some of these two.

920
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 5: I think that's just a fun bet, Like you know

921
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 5: what you're rooting for. It's the middle of the second

922
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 5: quarter and you're like, come on, one more possession. I

923
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 5: need six more yards from my bet. Like, it's just

924
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 5: kind of fun to have a little something different as well.

925
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 5: So I think that plays too all right.

926
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 2: Black Friday time Bears Eagles. This spread sitting at seven

927
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 2: right now, seems to be coming down a bit. I

928
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked to see some six and a half

929
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,240
Speaker 2: closer to the game. But forty four and a half

930
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: total here, what are you doing with the Bears Eagles?

931
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna take a Bears team total over here.

932
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 5: Give me the overs. Seventeen and a half on the Bears.

933
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 5: I think it's eighteen and a half at some books.

934
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 5: Shouldn't really make too big of a difference for that one. Again,

935
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 5: another blustery looking game, whether in the low forties, fifty

936
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 5: mini hour wins a very Bears Eagles sort of set up.

937
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 5: So stay warm on Black Friday. Put up some Christmas

938
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 5: decorations if that's your day and unwatch some football. But look,

939
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 5: I know both these teams we've talked about wanting to fade,

940
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 5: but start with the Eagles offense. I don't really know

941
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 5: what happens out side of the ball. That's why I'm

942
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 5: mostly avoiding it. They've been top bottom ten by success rate.

943
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 5: But the Bears are missing like every linebacker that seems

944
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 5: really bad against the Eagles no matter what they are.

945
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 5: Bears are especially bad covering middle of the field and

946
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 5: under center. But those are two things the Eagles really

947
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 5: don't do. That's just not a Jalen Hurts spot attacking.

948
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 5: They do attack deep pretty well. I don't know how

949
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 5: the weather comes into play there though, and of course

950
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 5: Lane Johnson out, so there's just a lot of randomness

951
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 5: and variables.

952
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 4: I don't really know.

953
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 5: What to expect on that side of the ball. I

954
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 5: would lean Bears if I had to take a side,

955
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 5: especially at the seven. I'm more like four and a

956
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 5: half five on Chicago. But I'm going to avoid that

957
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 5: side of the ball and just go on the other side.

958
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 5: Right now, everyone's all big on Eagles defense. They shut

959
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 5: down the Packers and the Lions, and then they played

960
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 5: the Cowboys and gave up five hundred yards of offense

961
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,720
Speaker 5: almost Pickens was a monster. Dallas ran the ball pretty

962
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 5: well and whichil the Sunday Dallas killed them with play

963
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 5: actions specifically, and the Eagles have been bad against play

964
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 5: action all year, and that has been Johnson's bread and butter.

965
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 5: Second most play action in the league, top ten EPA

966
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 5: per play. The Eagles also play very heavy light boxes.

967
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 5: That is what Vic Fangio wants to do is try

968
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 5: to get you to beat him that way. That is

969
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,760
Speaker 5: where the Bears are at their best top five EPA

970
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 5: per play, and we've talked over and over again how

971
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 5: much that run game has improved since the bye week.

972
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 5: The line especially is playing really well, so Bears team totals.

973
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 5: I'm sure you'll have a stat here, but I know

974
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 5: it's been very strong in the season. They started out

975
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 5: the year hitting that week after week, and because of

976
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 5: I think the weather and the Eagles defense perception, the

977
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 5: line's really low here. The Bears will score nineteen or

978
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 5: more points all but once this season, so they've hit

979
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,240
Speaker 5: the over to this line all but that one game.

980
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 5: And I just trust Ben Johnson to finanswers even if

981
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 5: they need it till halftime, I think the Bears will score.

982
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,879
Speaker 5: And look if they score, if they go above this,

983
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,479
Speaker 5: I think there may be more live to steal this game.

984
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 5: Then we probably expect that they would be going in.

985
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 5: But I'll take it Bears over and then real quick

986
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 5: on a prop here DeVante Smith receptions escalator.

987
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 4: So a key matchup.

988
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 5: I looked at the Eagles played the Saints last year

989
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 5: Week three and they beat them fifteen to twelve.

990
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 4: Okay, who cares, well?

991
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 5: I care because Dennis Allen was the defensive coordinator in

992
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 5: that game. And the fact that they held the Eagles

993
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 5: to only fifteen and it took a last second touchdown really.

994
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 4: For the Eagles to steal it.

995
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:01,760
Speaker 5: Not great looking at for the Eagles here, But Davante

996
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 5: in that game ten targets, seven catches, seventy nine yards,

997
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:06,919
Speaker 5: keeps finding spots in the zone.

998
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 4: And Aja was out that game. And we'll play here.

999
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 5: But the Bears have a lot, a lot of fantasy

1000
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 5: points to receivers top five in the league. But they're

1001
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 5: very good actually against wide receiver one and then kind

1002
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 5: of progressively worse down the line. So if we get

1003
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 5: a weather game, I think I prefer the short passing

1004
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 5: the volume, and especially if Devonte can pick apart the

1005
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 5: zone a little bit. So he's had six or more

1006
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 5: catches in five of nine games this year, I'll play that.

1007
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 5: I'll play six catches at plus two hundred eight catches

1008
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 5: at plus six ninety and just hope that it's a

1009
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 5: DeVante kind of picking apart the spots on this defense.

1010
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:44,280
Speaker 5: But otherwise give me the Bears over the team total.

1011
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're kind of going with the script here, so

1012
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,439
Speaker 2: I'll give you this Bears eight and three team total over.

1013
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 2: You had said it yourself, second best in the NFL.

1014
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 2: So they've been, you know, going over doing the Ben

1015
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 2: Johnson thing doing well. I feel like this team total

1016
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 2: a little considering you said it Green Bay, Detroit and

1017
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 2: some of the Dallas game. Phillies defense, but the thing

1018
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 2: that's interesting is this to me, so Phillies rush defense

1019
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 2: second in EPA but sixteenth in success rate. Well what

1020
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 2: does that say? So they don't stop every run, but

1021
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 2: when they do, the stops are very impactful. Now you

1022
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 2: would assume they're built to prevent explosives with that, but

1023
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 2: you know, not to win every three yard run. Now,

1024
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: Phillies rush defense this year allowed eleven point five percent

1025
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 2: explosive run rates twenty first in the NFL. And then

1026
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 2: you look at your stuff rate, which you know right

1027
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 2: at the line of scrimmage twenty eighth. So basically, Chicago

1028
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 2: is forty six point one percent run plus this year.

1029
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 2: So basically, run the ball with forty six percent ninth

1030
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 2: in the NFL. What I would say is just keep

1031
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 2: it up, keep going, keep doing your thing. I think

1032
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to run the ball in this one.

1033
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 2: Uh and again, given the win, give the weather, cold game,

1034
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 2: I think Chicago has an advantage. So I'm completely with you,

1035
00:49:57,040 --> 00:50:00,720
Speaker 2: and I think you know, Manungui touchdowns, swift some yards.

1036
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 2: I feel like Chicago has an advantage, and I think

1037
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 2: Ben Johnson's smart enough to use it.

1038
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it should be a good one. We

1039
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,240
Speaker 5: got a lot of fun games over the holiday.

1040
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 3: I'll tell you bet this stuff is looking good and

1041
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:13,399
Speaker 3: smelling good and tasting good.

1042
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 4: We got to dig in and start eating now.

1043
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 3: It is good.

1044
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: But you got a hurry because it's hitting close to

1045
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 2: game time and we just like to say happy Thanksgiving

1046
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:25,399
Speaker 2: to you guys back in the studio. All right, it

1047
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 2: is sides and leftover time, so We're gonna get through

1048
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 2: these quickly. Now we're moving to Sunday, Monday, things of

1049
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 2: that nature, so we will get to all the games

1050
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:38,440
Speaker 2: here as quickly as possible. Steelers and Bill's what are

1051
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 2: you doing in this one?

1052
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1053
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 5: I think it's a Steelers spot, Steelers plus four and

1054
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 5: a half, and I'm gonna play Steelers on the money

1055
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 5: line as well. Look, Bill's are on extra arrest after

1056
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 5: that loss to the Texans. Rogers, looks like he's probably

1057
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 5: gonna play it, but ailing it feels like the Bill's

1058
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 5: bounced back spot. But I think it is a raw,

1059
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 5: raw Tomlin spot. Actually, here we know the numbers from

1060
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 5: week five forward, fifty five and two ats as an

1061
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 5: underdog sixty eight percent cover. Right, That trend is usually

1062
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 5: better at home check after a loss, check as a

1063
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 5: touchdown underdog, or last check. To me, this line is

1064
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 5: just way off. I praise this pretty close to a

1065
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 5: coin flip for Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, and part of that

1066
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 5: is talk about the road Buffalo Bills so far this

1067
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 5: season on the road, the Bills won comfortably against Hoay,

1068
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 5: the Jets, and the Panthers. They lost in games we

1069
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 5: remember ugly to Atlanta to Miami to Houston, all on

1070
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 5: the road. Since the start of twenty twenty three, the

1071
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 5: Bills are now eleven and twelve straight up on the road.

1072
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 5: They are a losing record for this team that is

1073
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 5: a presumed juggernaut. And here are the eleven wins against quarterbacks.

1074
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes Okay, that one counts, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers

1075
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:52,720
Speaker 5: all right, Tuah twice, Gino Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Field's

1076
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 5: Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, and Easton Stick. That's the quarterbacks.

1077
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 5: This team is beating on the road and the numbers

1078
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 5: match it. This year number one offense at home, basically

1079
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 5: league average on the road by DVA. So again, you

1080
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 5: had another blustery looking game, probably some precipitation as well.

1081
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 5: Emphasis run game that should be good for Buffalo, but

1082
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:17,799
Speaker 5: they're better running inside. Pittsburgh's defense is better defending inside

1083
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 5: and on the other side of the ball, we know

1084
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 5: the Giants are the worst run defense in the league. Well,

1085
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 5: the Bills are the only team that's even close to

1086
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 5: the Giants that bad. Their thirty first DVA against the run,

1087
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 5: thirtieth and EPA per play, and Pittsburgh is suddenly top

1088
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 5: ten rushing by EPA per play. Our guy Kenny Gainwell

1089
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 5: scored those touchdowns for us and suddenly looks like a

1090
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 5: real weapon. Like they got two guys attacking now and

1091
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 5: bills top five and pressure rate and they force a

1092
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,240
Speaker 5: lot of short passes. Wat's good against a lot of teams,

1093
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 5: but Aaron Rodgers is key here. He just doesn't get

1094
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 5: pressured because he gets the ball out so fast. And

1095
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 5: the Steelers throw short more than anyone in the league,

1096
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,439
Speaker 5: over three fourth to their passes, and they're pretty good

1097
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 5: at it. So I think it sort of plays right

1098
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 5: into what the Steelers want to do anyway. The Steelers

1099
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 5: also play the least eleven personnel in the league. That's

1100
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 5: where Buffalo is defended best. Buffalo is bottom five EPA

1101
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 5: per play against twelve personnel and twenty one, which is

1102
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 5: where the Steelers play way more than most teams. So

1103
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 5: I think the matchup really favors the Steelers here. If

1104
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:20,759
Speaker 5: we go run heavy, that should shorten the game and

1105
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 5: keep things close. This looks under to me. Alan and

1106
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,800
Speaker 5: McDermott wrote unders usually a thing as well. A couple

1107
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,799
Speaker 5: more trends to wrap this one up Steelers after they

1108
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 5: allow more than twenty eight points forty one seventeen and

1109
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 5: two ats seventy one percent the last couple decades, and

1110
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 5: then one more. Tomlin stat as a home dog of

1111
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 5: seven or lass from week five forward nineteen five and

1112
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:47,280
Speaker 5: one seventy nine percent cover eight by over a touchdown

1113
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 5: a game, Steelers spot all the way, Steelers plus four

1114
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 5: and a half and I'll touch the money line at

1115
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 5: plus one seventy five, and you.

1116
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 2: Definitely have Mike Tomlin's attention. Pittsburgh's been losing. Pittsburgh has

1117
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 2: really struggled with Buffalo lately, four straight up ats, last five.

1118
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 2: They've well sixty nine to twenty their last two games

1119
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 2: versus Buffalo, and this will be their fifth straight game

1120
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: as an underdog versus Buffalo, all of them in Buffalo,

1121
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 2: this one in Pittsburgh definitely have Tomlin's attention, so his

1122
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 2: team will be as ready as possible for this one.

1123
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here, Jets. Falcons can't believe

1124
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 2: it's number two in the rundown, but here we go.

1125
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 2: What are you doing?

1126
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1127
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:26,720
Speaker 5: I told you Sunday is not going to be pretty,

1128
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:29,800
Speaker 5: and we are apparently backing the Jets a second straight week.

1129
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 4: Give me the Jets plus two and a half.

1130
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 5: Look, I prefer to wait for a three, so we

1131
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 5: might get that you may want to wait and see

1132
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 5: if the three pops. But I'll take the two and

1133
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:43,280
Speaker 5: a half here again, broken broken record here, But another

1134
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 5: windy game, another run heavy, low scoring game, total below forty.

1135
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 5: So the Jets have a huge special teams advantage here.

1136
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 5: They're number one by DVOA. The Falcons are bottom five.

1137
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 5: That matter is even more in windy conditions and where

1138
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 5: every point's gonna matter, So I think that is worth mentioning.

1139
00:54:59,320 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 5: And then just the way the matchup goes here, Jets

1140
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 5: run defense is really their one strength as a unit. Well,

1141
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:09,479
Speaker 5: that's the perfect matchup against the Falcons, and they're also

1142
00:55:09,600 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 5: better defending outside runs, where the Falcons run more than

1143
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 5: any team in the league. So I think that's kind

1144
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 5: of a push in that direction. And meanwhile, I think

1145
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 5: the Falcons defense is probably the best unit on the field,

1146
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 5: but that's mostly against the pass. Their bottom quarter of

1147
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 5: the league against the run. And that's what the Jets

1148
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 5: want to do is run, run, run the ball all game.

1149
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 5: And I think two even when they don't run, the

1150
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 5: switch to Tyrod Taylor is helpful here because the Falcons

1151
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 5: have gotten huge pressure, and I trust Tyrod to get

1152
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:38,320
Speaker 5: the ball out a little easier than I would have

1153
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:42,760
Speaker 5: trusted justin field. So I think Jets' biggest strengths running,

1154
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 5: stopping the run in special teams perfect for this matchup

1155
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:49,280
Speaker 5: in the weather. Tyrod as an underdog sixty six percent

1156
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 5: ats in his career and then since twenty eighteen, when

1157
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 5: the totals below forty two, you want underdogs of four

1158
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 5: or less fifty six percent against the spread. We said

1159
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 5: it last week. The Jets are keeping these games close.

1160
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 5: Even against the Ravens it was a one score game

1161
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 5: in the fourth quarter. That's now nine of eleven games

1162
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:10,399
Speaker 5: the Jets have been within one score. I think they're

1163
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 5: the right side here. Again, I would actually make the

1164
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 5: Jets favorites in this game. So I'll play Jets plus

1165
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 5: two and a half and I'll go one step further,

1166
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 5: not even just the money line, maybe I'm going like

1167
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 5: three steps further. So I noticed a while back, if

1168
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:26,840
Speaker 5: you have a team that is under a three point

1169
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 5: home underdog and you like them to win outright, we've

1170
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 5: seen them in the last decade one hundred and thirty

1171
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 5: four times where the team won eighty two of those times,

1172
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 5: so sixty one percent. That team won by at least

1173
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 5: a full touchdown seven or more points. Six of the

1174
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 5: seven Jets wins since it started last year by seven

1175
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 5: or more points. So I'm gonna skip the money line

1176
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 5: and go more aggressive. Jets alt minus six and a

1177
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 5: half plus two eighty eight. This game is terrible, like

1178
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 5: you said, But if we're gonna pay attention to these

1179
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 5: games on Sunday, why can't the Jets beat up on

1180
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 5: Kirk Cousins and whatever the left of the Falcons and

1181
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 5: send them to the grave. Jets plus two and a

1182
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 5: half and Jets alt by seven or more.

1183
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we hope no, Drake London if you're

1184
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 2: looking at the Jets here, but we'll see as we

1185
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 2: get closer to the weekend. You mentioned Tyrod Taylor loves

1186
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 2: covering the spread. He really does. Six zero to one

1187
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 2: ats last seven, and this is his specialty. When his

1188
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 2: team is under five hundred. He's sixteen and five against

1189
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 2: the spread, eleven and two as an underdog. So Tyrod,

1190
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 2: here we go. Also, Jets four and two ats last six.

1191
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 2: They've been in basically every game all year except for

1192
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 2: two and the Falcons outdoors eleven and twenty since twenty

1193
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 2: twenty loss six straight. So not fantastic there. All right,

1194
00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 2: let's keep going here. AFC South battle Texans Colts. This

1195
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 2: is an interesting one. Texans with a little bit of rest,

1196
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 2: Colts off of a pretty terrible loss. How you doing?

1197
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 2: How you dealing with it?

1198
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1199
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 5: I wanted to figure out a way to invest in

1200
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 5: the Colts here, but I'm gonna get creative. So yeah,

1201
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 5: it's a pretty big game on Sunday. The Colts are

1202
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 5: suddenly only up one on Jacksonville, two on Houston. Texans

1203
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,919
Speaker 5: are riding high. They get the extra rest. It looks

1204
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 5: like CG. Stroud is finally back. This rivalry has been

1205
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 5: really close games lately. Texans have only won one of

1206
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 5: the last six, but all but one of those are

1207
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 5: within four points, so probably this is close and late.

1208
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 5: I'm not saying it's gonna be super sexy and exciting

1209
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 5: to watch, but we'll probably be seeing it late in

1210
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 5: the witching hour. I like how the Colts defense matches

1211
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 5: up in this one number two EPA per play versus

1212
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 5: eleven personnel. Houston runs a pretty vanilla offense, so they

1213
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 5: run a lot of eleven. Colts are better on single high,

1214
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:35,200
Speaker 5: they're better on insider runs, best in the league. Actually,

1215
00:58:35,240 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 5: against that, they kind of match Houston's tendencies, and frankly,

1216
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 5: Houston tendencies are kind of easy to match.

1217
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 4: So on the flip.

1218
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 5: Side, I don't really want to invest too much in

1219
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 5: Daniel Jones against this Houston defense. We just saw what

1220
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 5: they did to Josh Allen. Why would I want Daniel Jones. Well,

1221
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 5: if I do want Colts, I'm gonna like them better early.

1222
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna play Colts first quarter minus half a point.

1223
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 5: So they actually aft to win the first quarter.

1224
00:58:59,120 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 4: I can't.

1225
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 5: I'm gonna lose tie. It's plus one fourteen. Here's the reason,

1226
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 5: Stich in scripted offense, I can trust Daniel Jones for

1227
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 5: a couple drives? Can I trust the scripted stuff when

1228
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 5: they know what's coming and get ready? And so far

1229
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 5: this year, Colts defense is actually top five in the

1230
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 5: first quarter by DVA in Houston is bottom ten. Then

1231
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 5: it flips after that for both of those and it

1232
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:25,800
Speaker 5: goes back the other way. But to me, that's coaching

1233
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 5: in preparation for the Colts. It also means in this

1234
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 5: particular matchup. Two things. Number one, we get some CJ.

1235
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:35,560
Speaker 5: Stroud rust early in the first quarter, we get to

1236
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 5: play that angle. And number two, the Colts defense just

1237
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 5: was on the field for ninety one plays against the Chiefs.

1238
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 5: No thank you to having anything to do with the

1239
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 5: Colts in the second half in case that comes back

1240
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 5: to haunt them. Let's get our money in the first

1241
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 5: quarter and get out of there. Colts eight and three

1242
00:59:50,720 --> 00:59:53,440
Speaker 5: ats in the first quarter, second to best mark in

1243
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:56,960
Speaker 5: the league Texans one in three first quarter as underdogs.

1244
00:59:57,120 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 5: So I will play Colts first quarter again. It's minus

1245
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 5: a half plus one fourteen. If you want, you'll play

1246
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 5: the money line that's minus one forty eight. Now you

1247
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 5: will get your money back in a tie. I am

1248
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 5: risking losing the tie because that's a pretty hefty margin

1249
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 5: in our favor that we actually have to win the quarter.

1250
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 5: But I'll take the plus one to fourteen and play

1251
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 5: the more aggressive line.

1252
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like badgely too. I think you have opportunities

1253
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 2: to take the lead. Seven point two points per game

1254
01:00:25,120 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 2: in the first quarter for indy type for thirsty, third

1255
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:30,440
Speaker 2: best in the NFL. And this one's good question is

1256
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 2: who leads the NFL in passing yards in the first

1257
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:37,680
Speaker 2: quarter Indiana Jones. So good one there, scripted offense, Indy

1258
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 2: seems to be doing well, all right, two more here?

1259
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:45,080
Speaker 2: What are you doing with New Orleans and Miami? Because

1260
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 2: I was hoping not to touch this game, but you

1261
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 2: just bring me to the You just continue to bring

1262
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 2: me to the upside down, and I just I just

1263
01:00:51,680 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 2: continue to ask what we're doing.

1264
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 5: We're gonna play the Dolphins. We're gonna play the first

1265
01:00:56,080 --> 01:00:59,320
Speaker 5: half line here, So one more time, another windy looking

1266
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 5: game on Sunday. The Saints are really lacking weapons. It

1267
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 5: looks like Kamara is out and we got like Taysom

1268
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 5: Hill is running apparently now the football at running back

1269
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 5: for them. Remember last week when we made Tyler Shock

1270
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:14,280
Speaker 5: a favorite, we made the Raiders a favorite too, like

1271
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 5: that that was really fun. This line feels more right

1272
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 5: to me. Miami is home off the bye week. There,

1273
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:23,480
Speaker 5: I have them as more than a touchdown favor. But

1274
01:01:23,480 --> 01:01:27,040
Speaker 5: I'm gonna play first half. Miami's defense has been better

1275
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 5: of late, top quarter of the league in dvaa number

1276
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 5: one against the run last six weeks. So it's up

1277
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 5: to Shock passing and I think both defenses are probably

1278
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:38,439
Speaker 5: the better unit here in the matchup, so I would

1279
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 5: lean low. That doesn't make me love Miami laying the

1280
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 5: six here. The Dolphins defensively this year have been weak

1281
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:49,800
Speaker 5: at short passing, defensive and also giving up a lot

1282
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:52,200
Speaker 5: of explosives. Well, the Saints are dead last in both

1283
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 5: of those areas, so that's not an area that they

1284
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 5: are really able to hurt them.

1285
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 4: This is another spot too.

1286
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 5: In any NFC South game, you're probably going to have

1287
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 5: a huge special team advantage for the other side. Miami

1288
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 5: is top five, Saints bottom two, so again with the

1289
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 5: windy conditions, that part matters to Saints defense twenty fifth

1290
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 5: on the road versus league average at home, so that's

1291
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 5: a bad spot for them here. And then they're also

1292
01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 5: as we know, Saints have been really bad early in

1293
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 5: games in the first half. They're bottom ten offensively versus

1294
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 5: top ten in the second half or sorry defensively, and

1295
01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 5: in Miami has been much better offensively fourteenth by DVA

1296
01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:31,600
Speaker 5: in the first half, bottom five in the second half.

1297
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 5: So this is just kind of this is win you

1298
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 5: back to and McDaniel is as the front runner as

1299
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 5: the favorite against a bad team and the Saints. You've

1300
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:41,560
Speaker 5: said this set a bunch of times this year. They're

1301
01:02:41,560 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 5: now one in ten ATS in the first quarter. If

1302
01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 5: you want just the first quarter, I can't really blame you.

1303
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 5: I'm gonna give Miami the whole half to be a

1304
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 5: better team. Saints are three to eight ATS in the

1305
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 5: first half. They're seven to four second half, So I'm

1306
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 5: gonna get out and avoid that part. But a trend

1307
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 5: that pushed me toward the half instead of the quarter.

1308
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 5: Home fats of seven or less after a buye a

1309
01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 5: week in just the first half eighty six sixty six

1310
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 5: and twenty two ats fifty seven percent cover rate, So

1311
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:11,919
Speaker 5: good spot to look at the home favorite first half

1312
01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 5: coming out of the bye week in Miami minus two

1313
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 5: and a half in the first half line. You get

1314
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:18,280
Speaker 5: below the key number that way as well, So again

1315
01:03:18,640 --> 01:03:21,320
Speaker 5: you can play the money line if for prefer Look

1316
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,280
Speaker 5: if you're playing like a minus one sixty juice because

1317
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 5: you're afraid of it. To me, that's the sign you

1318
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 5: just skip the play. I'm gonna take the more aggressive line.

1319
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:31,720
Speaker 5: I'm gonna hope that the Finns lead by at least

1320
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:33,680
Speaker 5: a field goal, and then we'll just not even have

1321
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 5: to pay attention in the second half of these games.

1322
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 5: Like you said, we don't want to watch this one anyways.

1323
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:38,880
Speaker 5: Let's just get our money and get home.

1324
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the goal to in McDaniels. Seventeen and ten

1325
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 2: first at ats at home. They are above five hundred

1326
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:47,760
Speaker 2: first fats in all six months of the season. Two

1327
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 2: no matter what it is, they seem to perform fifteen

1328
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 2: and six first have ahts on normal rest or more

1329
01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 2: at home, so it seems like a good spot overall. All. Right,

1330
01:03:57,200 --> 01:04:00,280
Speaker 2: last prop here, this one is you know, you know

1331
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:02,600
Speaker 2: you're not just taking the best player ever, you're taking

1332
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 2: the best player ever this season. So what are you

1333
01:04:04,760 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 2: doing with them?

1334
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I gotta get a Jackson Smith and Jig mc

1335
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 5: pop in here. So I just want to play receiving

1336
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 5: yards escalator and they aren't even lines yet. I'm just

1337
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 5: gonna prep you to play it once they post. So

1338
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 5: it's kind of a messy game. JJ McCarthy is supposedly

1339
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 5: in concussion protocol now, which you know, shocker that McCarthy

1340
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 5: just happens to be injured again right before all on

1341
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:26,440
Speaker 5: the road in Seattle. Looks like it's Max Brosemer season,

1342
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 5: So good luck to the undrafted guy, throwing him to

1343
01:04:29,560 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 5: the Wolves against this nasty defense. So on the other side,

1344
01:04:33,880 --> 01:04:35,920
Speaker 5: of course, it's Sam Darnald. So it's a reminder to

1345
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 5: the Vikings of just what they gave up. But I

1346
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:41,040
Speaker 5: don't really know we're gonna get with Donald. Does Brian

1347
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 5: Floores know Donald Tennesse's gonna throw them off kilter? Or

1348
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:47,040
Speaker 5: On the other hand, the matchup here is why Lean

1349
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 5: and a JSN the Vikings bottom five DVA against wide

1350
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 5: receiver one, bottom five against deep passes, dead last EPA

1351
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 5: for a play on deep passes. They don't allow a

1352
01:04:57,200 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 5: lot of them by volume, but Seattle's gonna test that

1353
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 5: because Seattle all year has been elite elite plus on

1354
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 5: deep passes, top three EPA per play and top three

1355
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 5: by volume. So they go there early and often. And

1356
01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 5: by god, that is jsm's music. He's already broken Seattle's

1357
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:18,640
Speaker 5: franchise record in week twelve. He's on pace for the

1358
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:21,000
Speaker 5: all time record. You know that he has ninety three

1359
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 5: yards or more all but one game this season, and

1360
01:05:23,360 --> 01:05:26,440
Speaker 5: in that quote, bad game was seventy nine yards. It's

1361
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 5: a hack of a season. One hundred yards are more

1362
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 5: in eight of eleven. Last week the line was ninety

1363
01:05:31,720 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 5: six and a half. So whatever we're gonna get, I'm

1364
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 5: looking basically at one hundred yards and then maybe some alts,

1365
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 5: maybe like one hundred and one hundred and fifty. But JSN,

1366
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 5: I think this is in line to have a big

1367
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:45,240
Speaker 5: game and to have Vikings fans crying to their pillows

1368
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 5: about missing Sam Darnald on Sunday.

1369
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,040
Speaker 2: I mean, my only worry in this at all is

1370
01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 2: and you've seen the stat probably floating around as well,

1371
01:05:52,360 --> 01:05:55,680
Speaker 2: like Donald has under three hundred passes, had some eleven games,

1372
01:05:56,000 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 2: So just the ability to get Jaysn the ball in

1373
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 2: like a volume state double digit favorite for Seattle. So

1374
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:06,120
Speaker 2: Seattle's been favored by six plus three times this year.

1375
01:06:06,360 --> 01:06:10,000
Speaker 2: Here's jsn's numbers obviously last week eight for one, sixty

1376
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:12,760
Speaker 2: seven and two, but then he did five and ninety

1377
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:14,840
Speaker 2: three in a touchdown and five and ninety six and

1378
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:18,640
Speaker 2: a touchdown against Arizona and New Orleans, so still there,

1379
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 2: but only five catches because you know Seattle's up in

1380
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 2: the game. So I think to me that is literally

1381
01:06:24,240 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 2: the only worry. Five games with fewer than ten targets

1382
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:31,680
Speaker 2: for JSN this year Darnald's pass attempts twenty two point

1383
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 2: eight in those five games, So literally that is it, Like,

1384
01:06:35,000 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 2: is there enough volume in the game to get Jasn

1385
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 2: wherever you want? Because he's getting all the target share.

1386
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:43,680
Speaker 2: We will have to see if the brosmer can keep

1387
01:06:43,720 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 2: them in it for just a little bit, just a

1388
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 2: tiny bit. All right, We've done the main course, the

1389
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:51,920
Speaker 2: entree was good. We've had the sides. Take me to dessert.

1390
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:55,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I guess said, no look ahead this week,

1391
01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:57,000
Speaker 5: no lines yet? So how about a little future is

1392
01:06:57,040 --> 01:06:59,440
Speaker 5: long shot, a little tasty morsel to wrap up? So

1393
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:02,520
Speaker 5: every week I always go through like Monday Tuesday. Okay,

1394
01:07:02,520 --> 01:07:04,040
Speaker 5: what are all the futures out there? Let's look at

1395
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,480
Speaker 5: the divisions, look at the menus, let's take down the awards.

1396
01:07:07,680 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 5: So looking at the divisions right now, Colts Box, Broncos

1397
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 5: all offer a slight amount of value. But those are

1398
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 5: all three teams that you're betting like a big minus number,

1399
01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 5: and I don't really love the spot for any of

1400
01:07:18,840 --> 01:07:19,400
Speaker 5: those three.

1401
01:07:19,480 --> 01:07:20,000
Speaker 4: This week.

1402
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:23,040
Speaker 5: I think there's some value on the Bills at five

1403
01:07:23,080 --> 01:07:25,600
Speaker 5: to one, but again, I can't be betting that we're

1404
01:07:25,640 --> 01:07:28,080
Speaker 5: on Steelers to possibly beat the Bills this week. So

1405
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:30,800
Speaker 5: I found two spots that I do see clear value.

1406
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 5: One should be pretty obvious. That would be the Lions

1407
01:07:33,520 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 5: plus one seventy thirty seven percent implied versus forty three

1408
01:07:37,120 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 5: percent at FTN. And it's a big swing here. This

1409
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:42,760
Speaker 5: is the Thanksgiving play. You beat the Packers. That's a

1410
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 5: plus one and a minus one for green Bay, and

1411
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 5: then Chicago touchdown underdogs in Philly and then at green

1412
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:51,880
Speaker 5: Bay next week. So Lions beat the Packers here and

1413
01:07:51,920 --> 01:07:55,040
Speaker 5: then hopefully if you have the Lions ticket Bears and

1414
01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:57,200
Speaker 5: Packers lose, and then they play each other next week,

1415
01:07:57,240 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 5: so one of them loses another game right away. So

1416
01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:02,360
Speaker 5: I think it's a good spot for Detroit. They play

1417
01:08:02,440 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 5: in Chicago week eighteen, who they beat by thirty one

1418
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 5: last time, so probably you get at least a shot

1419
01:08:08,440 --> 01:08:11,160
Speaker 5: at this one in the final game. The other part

1420
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 5: I'm going to parlay two of these together is I'm

1421
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:16,639
Speaker 5: gonna do Steelers plus three sixty. And I know it's

1422
01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:19,080
Speaker 5: not gonna feel comfortable because of all the Ravens stuff,

1423
01:08:19,120 --> 01:08:21,839
Speaker 5: but again, if you like the Steelers against the Bills,

1424
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:25,000
Speaker 5: they get the Dolphins and the Browns. We'll see about

1425
01:08:25,000 --> 01:08:28,000
Speaker 5: a game in Detroit, but the other two games are

1426
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:32,960
Speaker 5: against the Ravens, including Week eighteen in Pittsburgh. That screams

1427
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 5: last game of the year Sunday night. I think we're

1428
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:37,840
Speaker 5: getting that Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and again gives you a

1429
01:08:37,880 --> 01:08:41,040
Speaker 5: shot in Week eighteen. The Ravens have not been that great.

1430
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:44,160
Speaker 5: We talked about that Burrow twice. They get in the

1431
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,120
Speaker 5: next few weeks. It's a rough stretch for them, where

1432
01:08:47,479 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 5: other teams like the Steelers got to avoid that earlier

1433
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 5: this season. The Ravens still play the Patriots, they play

1434
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:55,880
Speaker 5: the Packers. They can lose some games. It's plus three

1435
01:08:55,880 --> 01:09:00,559
Speaker 5: to sixty for Pittsburgh implied twenty two percent. Pen has

1436
01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 5: it thirty one percent, and if they win this week

1437
01:09:03,520 --> 01:09:06,280
Speaker 5: the Steelers and against the Bills, they could even be

1438
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:08,519
Speaker 5: like closer to fifty percent again by the end of

1439
01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:11,959
Speaker 5: this week already. So this is a Thanksgiving Feast division

1440
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:16,880
Speaker 5: parlay Lions and Steelers both together plus thirteen twenty four

1441
01:09:17,320 --> 01:09:20,360
Speaker 5: that's about seven percent implied. I have it more like

1442
01:09:20,400 --> 01:09:22,960
Speaker 5: thirteen percent, so about double that, and I think it

1443
01:09:23,000 --> 01:09:25,599
Speaker 5: might even get up to like twenty five percent if

1444
01:09:25,640 --> 01:09:28,680
Speaker 5: we're right about our Thanksgiving angles. On these games, So

1445
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 5: thirteen to one Ish Lions and Steelers. And if you

1446
01:09:32,200 --> 01:09:35,120
Speaker 5: want the really really long number, a little like whipped

1447
01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:37,920
Speaker 5: cream on your on your pumpkin pie, you can add

1448
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:41,240
Speaker 5: in Colts, Broncos, Bucks. Those are all the big favorites,

1449
01:09:41,479 --> 01:09:43,679
Speaker 5: and you get just over thirty to one at plus

1450
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:46,800
Speaker 5: thirty seventy seven and go with the big division parlay here,

1451
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:50,519
Speaker 5: but Lines Steelers, that's your dessert. Let's have some leftovers

1452
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:51,480
Speaker 5: and enjoy Thanksgiving.

1453
01:09:51,760 --> 01:09:54,960
Speaker 2: Here's the question, Colts, Broncos, Bucks, which one would you

1454
01:09:55,040 --> 01:09:55,439
Speaker 2: kick out?

1455
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:56,840
Speaker 4: Which one would I kick out?

1456
01:09:57,080 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 5: I mean, as much as I have as much smack

1457
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:03,640
Speaker 5: as I've talked on them, I think it has to

1458
01:10:03,680 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 5: be the Broncos. I just can't feel good about the Broncos.

1459
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,040
Speaker 5: I feel fine with the Box because I'm just betting

1460
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:11,920
Speaker 5: against the Panthers. I feel sure, mostly okay about the

1461
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:14,640
Speaker 5: Colts because the Texans have a brutal schedule and I

1462
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:17,400
Speaker 5: don't believe in the Jaguars. Denver is still got Kansas

1463
01:10:17,439 --> 01:10:19,880
Speaker 5: City Common, so I feel like Denver is who I

1464
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:21,640
Speaker 5: would kick out if I had to boot one. And

1465
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:23,439
Speaker 5: I believe you're still like twenty five to one if

1466
01:10:23,479 --> 01:10:23,920
Speaker 5: you do that.

1467
01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:26,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a close one. I really, I mean if

1468
01:10:26,320 --> 01:10:28,400
Speaker 2: Carolina even would have stayed close last night. I want

1469
01:10:28,400 --> 01:10:29,680
Speaker 2: to kick out the Bucks, but I don't know if

1470
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 2: I can. All Right, that'll do it. Here on the

1471
01:10:31,560 --> 01:10:34,919
Speaker 2: Action Eary podcast for NFL Week thirteen Best Bets episode

1472
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,639
Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings. If you want instant notifications when action

1473
01:10:38,720 --> 01:10:41,200
Speaker 2: experts track their bets, go to Action hour dot com

1474
01:10:41,240 --> 01:10:44,679
Speaker 2: slash Pro get fifty percent off your first three months

1475
01:10:44,680 --> 01:10:47,880
Speaker 2: of an annual subscription of Action Pro. If you haven't yet,

1476
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 2: check out our new AI quick slip bot on X.

1477
01:10:51,920 --> 01:10:55,280
Speaker 2: Just tag Playbook at Playbook, tell the to grab whatever

1478
01:10:55,360 --> 01:10:57,960
Speaker 2: bets you're looking for, and it'll create a quick slip

1479
01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:01,439
Speaker 2: link for you in a matter of seconds. Super easy.

1480
01:11:01,439 --> 01:11:03,120
Speaker 2: When you wake up Thursday morning and have to try

1481
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:05,200
Speaker 2: to put in all your Thanksgiving bets before the one

1482
01:11:05,200 --> 01:11:09,880
Speaker 2: o'clock game, just at Playbook on X on Twitter. Super simple.

1483
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:11,320
Speaker 2: And again, if you want to tell some of the

1484
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:13,680
Speaker 2: bets we gave out today, make sure to look for

1485
01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:16,479
Speaker 2: the quick siplink in the podcast and video description, or

1486
01:11:16,640 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 2: go to actionower dot com slash Bet now b e

1487
01:11:19,280 --> 01:11:22,400
Speaker 2: t n OW. We will be back Sunday night. For

1488
01:11:22,439 --> 01:11:25,800
Speaker 2: our NFL recap show. Right here Me and Brandon live

1489
01:11:25,920 --> 01:11:29,799
Speaker 2: on Action Networks YouTube page shortly after Sunday Night Football.

1490
01:11:30,400 --> 01:11:33,880
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening, enjoy the slate, eat everything you

1491
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:36,360
Speaker 2: possibly can, and all the trip to Fend. Good luck

1492
01:11:36,360 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 2: with all your bets this weekend. Happy Thanksgiving, Happy Byck Friday.

1493
01:11:40,200 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 2: See you guys Sunday night.

1494
01:11:42,880 --> 01:12:05,799
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving. Gamblers, We're thankful for you. Action Network reminds

1495
01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:09,680
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1496
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:12,840
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1497
01:12:12,880 --> 01:12:14,879
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred gambler