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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot?

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind.

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Speaker 2: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Up. I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: Again the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left too.

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Speaker 2: The wide eyed drill piffused, how old Earth big happens.

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergoal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: My name is Michael Lee Buff.

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Speaker 4: And joining me today as always are my friends Anthony,

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Speaker 4: Debundo and Bjkin. In today's episode, we will be focused

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Speaker 4: on the Champions League. That's right, Europe's top competition is back.

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Speaker 4: We're under the lights, the European Lights, for the first

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Speaker 4: time since December, and we have a couple of really

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Speaker 4: tasty fixtures on Tuesday and Wednesday. There are four games total,

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Speaker 4: and then four games next week as well in the

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Speaker 4: Round of sixteen. But real quick before I bring in

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Speaker 4: my co hosts. I want to just run through the

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Speaker 4: futures board to get you caught up on the Champions

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Speaker 4: League and where we're sitting heading into the knockout stages.

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Speaker 4: Manchester City they're the clear favorite plus two to fifty,

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Speaker 4: Bayern Munich plus three to fifty. Right behind them, Liverpool

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Speaker 4: is plus five fifty. Chelsea the defending champions, they're seven

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Speaker 4: to one.

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Speaker 2: PSG ten to one.

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Speaker 4: IX twelve to one Real Madrid if they're fourteen to one.

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Speaker 4: Manchester United they're sitting at eighteen to one, Juventus twenty

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Speaker 4: five to one, Atletico Madrid thirty five to one, Inter

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Speaker 4: Milan fifty to one, and then the triple digits. We

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Speaker 4: got via Real at one hundred to one, Benfica fifty

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Speaker 4: to one, LIL two hundred to one, Lisbon two hundred

41
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Speaker 4: and fifty to one, and RB Salzburg also at two

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Speaker 4: fifty to one. And we'll start with a delectable matchup

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Speaker 4: two of the richest clubs, the most famous clubs in

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Speaker 4: all of Europe. PSG there plus one hundred even money

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Speaker 4: at home hosting Real Madrid plus two sixty five. The

46
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Speaker 4: draw is plus two seventy the two advanced line PSG

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Speaker 4: is sitting at minus one thirty seven Real Madrid even money, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: I think it's fair to say on this show, if

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Speaker 4: you've been listening, we've kind of been skeptical of both

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Speaker 4: of these teams since the beginning of the season. We

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Speaker 4: think they've been overvalued. But I do think it would

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Speaker 4: be fair to say that we've tended to say PSG

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Speaker 4: are the price has been more overinflated, I guess than

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid to this point. I think that's fair to

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Speaker 4: kind of sum up how we feel about these teams.

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Speaker 4: So it is an interesting matchup. Would you make PSG

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Speaker 4: the favorite to advance and agree with the book makers.

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Speaker 5: Only slightly and so PSG was about minus one ten

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Speaker 5: about two weeks ago. But the end Karen Benzema really

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Speaker 5: takes this into a more tenuous position for Real Madrid.

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Speaker 5: I think we don't know if he's going to start

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Speaker 5: on Tuesday. I think he will, but he hasn't played

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Speaker 5: in a couple of weeks. He's been dealing with an injury.

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Speaker 5: They've been going to Luki Jovic and Venetius as the strikeforce,

65
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Speaker 5: Cencio as well, but he's just so important to their

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Speaker 5: attack and the way they want to play, and really,

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Speaker 5: you know, one of the main reasons that I've seen

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Speaker 5: them as overrated a lot of this year is because

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Speaker 5: Benzema and Venetius especially have vastly overperformed their expected goals numbers,

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Speaker 5: and I'm not sure how long that can continue, and

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Speaker 5: that's why I've been looking to bet against them. Well,

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Speaker 5: if he's not even there, that's a huge loss. And

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Speaker 5: you look at this attack. They created a couple of

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Speaker 5: expected goals the last two games without him, but again

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Speaker 5: only scored one goal in two games against Grenada and

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Speaker 5: via Rial, so they've struggled to score chances. But I'm

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Speaker 5: actually pretty encouraged by the defensive improvement that we've seen

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Speaker 5: from them in the last month or so. I think

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Speaker 5: they've kind of calmed down a little bit. You know,

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Speaker 5: at one point on this podcast, they were thirteenth and

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Speaker 5: expected goals allowed per ninety in Spain, which is pretty frightening.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think, you know, you got to take

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Speaker 4: into account the fact that leg is, yeah, of course,

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Speaker 4: a couple not just below La.

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Speaker 2: Liga but PSG.

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Speaker 4: They've they've been in good form and domestically too, like

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Speaker 4: and Real Madrid hasn't. But they're expected goals numbers are

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Speaker 4: have been really good.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: They're two two to one win drug loss in their

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Speaker 4: last five, but a plus eight point eighty four expected

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Speaker 4: goals differential. So like you said, there underlying metrics are

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Speaker 4: trending up. However, it is a tough one to call.

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Speaker 4: I think I think you're getting a pretty good number

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Speaker 4: on Real Madrid here. It would be Real Madrid are

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Speaker 4: nothing for me, But like you said, I do want

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Speaker 4: to keep monitoring Kareem Benzima for two reasons. One, if

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Speaker 4: he is out, this number should tick up, and I

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Speaker 4: still think I'd be interested in it even without their

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Speaker 4: main man playing in front of his you know, his

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Speaker 4: home crowd of France. So definitely want to keep an

102
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Speaker 4: eye on bj. I think you're with me here. You've

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Speaker 4: been kind of a gainst PSG throughout this entire season

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Speaker 4: and I don't really see you slowing down here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Real Madrid here. So, as of about

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Speaker 1: six hours ago, the team squad came out for Real

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Speaker 1: Madrid of the travel squad and Benzma is on there

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Speaker 1: and it sounds like he is ready to play. So

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Speaker 1: Ancelotti basically has a choice of whether he's going to

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Speaker 1: start him or bring him off the bench. I expect

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Speaker 1: him to actually, you know, start him. I'm sure he's

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Speaker 1: sounds like he's fit enough if he's definitely going to travel.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned it, the level of play in La Liga

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Speaker 1: versus League on is actually a pretty significant gap. So

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Speaker 1: PSG has obviously been cruising through. They really kind of

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Speaker 1: slept through a match against Ren on Friday. Obviously it

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Speaker 1: was a you know.

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Speaker 2: A game before there.

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Speaker 1: Obviously he had one eye on the Champions League, so

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Speaker 1: you can't really fault them that much. They have been

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Speaker 1: dominating some of the other big teams, you know, the

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Speaker 1: match against Lill obviously comes to mind. But I think

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Speaker 1: we are forgetting how underwhelming PSG's performances were during the

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Speaker 1: Champions League group stage. If you take out the two

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Speaker 1: matches against Club Brush, they had a minus one point

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Speaker 1: three expected goal non penalty expected gold differential against Leipzig

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Speaker 1: and Manchester City. And what tends to have happening with

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Speaker 1: PSG is they're used to playing this possession dominant style

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Speaker 1: in league end. When they have to face teams like

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Speaker 1: Manchester City, Bayern Munich comes to mind in the Champions League,

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Speaker 1: they tend to try to sit deep and then destroy

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Speaker 1: teams on the counter because they have the best front

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Speaker 1: three in the world. What's going to be interesting here

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Speaker 1: is that Real Madrid, if you go back and look

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Speaker 1: through some of their results, there have been consistent times

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Speaker 1: when they play bigger sides that they're not the possession

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Speaker 1: controlling type. Now, they have had defensive issues, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of what those issues have boiled down to is

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Speaker 1: in the four to three to three system Cruse and Modrich.

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Speaker 1: They love to go forward and supply the attack and

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Speaker 1: essentially try to overwhelm opposing defenses, which leaves Casamiro and

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Speaker 1: the defense on an island. Well, that can work in

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Speaker 1: La Liga against teams that are playing four to four

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Speaker 1: two's and not really that astute in terms of attacking.

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Speaker 1: Against PSG, that's a different story, and that's actually pretty concerning.

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Speaker 1: But Real Madrid averaging one point eighty three expected goals

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Speaker 1: in La Liga, which is pretty good considering the amount

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Speaker 1: of scoring per match, and La League is significantly lower

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Speaker 1: than the other five leagues. So again I think that

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Speaker 1: this match should be projected closer to a pick them.

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Speaker 1: I have these teams pretty much even when you take

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Speaker 1: into the fact you wait for coefficients, and if Benzima plays,

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Speaker 1: there's no reason to stay away from Real Madrid here.

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Speaker 1: So I'll be on Real Madrid plus half a goal

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Speaker 1: at minus one twenty, and I do if Benzima's not playing,

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Speaker 1: I may try to hedge out of that and maybe

157
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Speaker 1: potentially they have PSG live and get a better number

158
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Speaker 1: of whatever. But right now, definitely on Real Madrid in

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Speaker 1: this first leg.

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Speaker 4: And Anthony, you think this could be more of a

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Speaker 4: Cagy affair should be noted right that the away goals

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Speaker 4: rule is has been chalked right, There's nowhere away goals,

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Speaker 4: so it's basically a straight up two leg matchup in

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Speaker 4: the knockout rounds. Do you think is that what's factoring

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Speaker 4: into you leaning towards the under here at all?

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Speaker 3: Not necessarily.

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Speaker 5: I don't think it changes much in terms of the

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Speaker 5: strategy from Real Madrid. I do think they're going to

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Speaker 5: be more conservative in Paris in this first leg. I

170
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Speaker 5: agree with BJ's point that these teams are pretty close

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Speaker 5: to a toss up. I make PSG's slight favorite. Would

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Speaker 5: not lay minus one thirty seven on them to advance.

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Speaker 5: I would have laid minus one ten two weeks ago.

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Speaker 3: I probably should have.

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Speaker 5: But I think the most interesting angle here is for

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Speaker 5: me in this first lag is that two attacks that

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Speaker 5: I still think are a little overrated and two defenses

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Speaker 5: that have improved quite a bit. So I'm actually playing

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Speaker 5: the under three at minus one fifteen PSG in the

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Speaker 5: first three months of the season. And I know that

181
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Speaker 5: we can't really compare league on to La Liga, but

182
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Speaker 5: they allowed about point nine goals per ninety in France

183
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Speaker 5: in the first three months. Since then, since December only

184
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Speaker 5: point sixty five goals per ninety, so they've improved considerably

185
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Speaker 5: there defensively, and Real Madrid also has improved. They were

186
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Speaker 5: one point one five expected goals allowed per ninety since

187
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Speaker 5: November has ended December calendar turns, they're actually up to

188
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Speaker 5: eighth in the league now defensively, and they're only allowing

189
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Speaker 5: about point eight xg per ninety defensively since then. So

190
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Speaker 5: I think the best way to beat PSG is in

191
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Speaker 5: direct and quick counter attacks.

192
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Speaker 3: Real Madrid can do that and they've been effective.

193
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Speaker 5: We've seen them do that against Barcelona, but I also

194
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Speaker 5: think their pressing numbers are not very high, so you're

195
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Speaker 5: looking at a situation where PSG is probably going to

196
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Speaker 5: have some stale possession and really struggle to break them down,

197
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Speaker 5: and then Rial is going to try to hit on

198
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,680
Speaker 5: the counter. Real Madrid also only fifteenth in crosses in Spain.

199
00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:11,720
Speaker 5: That's a good way to get at PSG and they

200
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:13,760
Speaker 5: really won't be able to do it. Neymar looks like

201
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,720
Speaker 5: he's going to come off the bench too. I prefer

202
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:17,800
Speaker 5: he'd be out of a lineup for my under because

203
00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,720
Speaker 5: he's a great attacker, but he doesn't do much defending,

204
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,360
Speaker 5: so overall all these points to the under. Adrisa Gay is.

205
00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:24,400
Speaker 3: Also back for PSG.

206
00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,360
Speaker 5: He's missed a bunch of games, but he's probably their

207
00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 5: best defensive midfielder.

208
00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:29,920
Speaker 3: Breaking up play was excellent.

209
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 5: Probably one of the most impressive defensive midfield of displays

210
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,800
Speaker 5: I've seen all year was him against Manchester City in

211
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Speaker 5: the first leg when they played in Paris and PSG

212
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Speaker 5: beat them two nio.

213
00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:40,439
Speaker 2: Yeah.

214
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Speaker 1: One thing I'll mention is that atrov Akimi is unbelievable

215
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Speaker 1: right back in terms of getting forward and progressing the

216
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:48,760
Speaker 1: ball and putting crosses in, but he's really not that

217
00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,240
Speaker 1: great of a defender, so having to defend Venetius Junior

218
00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:53,680
Speaker 1: and having to basically stay back with him and not

219
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Speaker 1: being able to come forward like he's usually able to

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Speaker 1: against a lot of teams that don't have that type

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Speaker 1: of left winger that can punish you down there left side.

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Speaker 1: That's another problem where I think PSG is probably going

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Speaker 1: to have to sit a little deeper than they'd like to.

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Speaker 1: But it'll be really interesting to see who actually controls

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Speaker 1: the possession here. I'm very very interested to see who's

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Speaker 1: the more aggressive team and who is more passive looking

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Speaker 1: to hit him on the counter. So it's a very

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Speaker 1: very interesting match up here in the first leg.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think you know, if you're watching this

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Speaker 5: game as a neutral or if you're a better the

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Speaker 5: most interesting angle in terms of tactically is the fullbacks

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Speaker 5: for me, because Real Madrid the main change they've made

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Speaker 5: is being a little more conservative with their fullbacks, and

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Speaker 5: like you said, Pikimmia and Nuno men the left back

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Speaker 5: for PSG likely to start, they're pretty aggressive. I wonder

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Speaker 5: if Postino will let them be as aggressive as they

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Speaker 5: normally are given that and how much each manager is

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Speaker 5: willing to take risks with their full backs. Likely because

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Speaker 5: of how good guys like Venetias and Bape are as

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Speaker 5: wide forwards could determine how open this game is.

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Speaker 4: You have to go back to October thirtieth for the

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Speaker 4: last time Manchester City dropped a game, lost a game.

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Speaker 4: They are the prohibitive favorite. In the other match on

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Speaker 4: Tuesday three pm Manchester City minus three thirty traveling to

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Speaker 4: Lisbon to play Sporting plus nine to fifty. Right now,

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Speaker 4: the Druss plus two seventy.

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Speaker 2: The two advanced line. This is just at Caesars right now.

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Speaker 2: It's in New York.

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Speaker 4: It's pretty hard to find the betting. The arrival of

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Speaker 4: legalized betting in New York has been a little messy

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Speaker 4: to say with with what markets are available and not

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Speaker 4: so I had to go to Caesars for this. This

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Speaker 4: is City's minus twelve hundred there plus six hundred to advance.

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Speaker 4: Most other places I think would have lis been a

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Speaker 4: little higher. But I do think that there is a

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Speaker 4: path to success here for the Portuguese side, especially in

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Speaker 4: the opening leg. Right, this is a really good defensive

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Speaker 4: outfit and they play very low event soccer. Right they're

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Speaker 4: two point six to four total goals per match. That's

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Speaker 4: thirteenth in Portugal, which is already a low scoring league.

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Speaker 4: And City they don't really play that high event either. Right,

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Speaker 4: three goals total goals per match on average, and only

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Speaker 4: thirty two percent of their matches are both teams to score.

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Speaker 4: A lot of that is because they're so dominant on

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Speaker 4: the ball and defensively. And it's interesting to note that

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Speaker 4: they are averaging just three goals per match, including matches

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Speaker 4: where they they've scored seven and such. That said, so,

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Speaker 4: I think this could be a little bit more of

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Speaker 4: a slog than you'd imagine in a game that's lined

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Speaker 4: this way minus three thirty plus nine to fifty. I

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Speaker 4: actually think Sporting I might sprinkle the money line here.

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Speaker 4: I think that they are within a shot here at

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Speaker 4: Manchester City. Like I said, they haven't lost and forever

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Speaker 4: they're a machine, but they're going to have to step

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Speaker 4: up in their competition. Just when you look back at

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Speaker 4: who they've played the past couple matches in the Premier League,

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Speaker 4: Brentford and Norwich, they've rolled and they drew with Southampton,

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Speaker 4: so this is a little bit of a step up

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Speaker 4: in competition. I do think that Sporting do have a

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Speaker 4: slight kind of glimmer of hope to pull an upset here.

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Speaker 4: Do I think that they'll advance. No, I don't think

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Speaker 4: they can get it done over one hundred and eighty minutes.

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Speaker 4: But in terms of what we're going to see on

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Speaker 4: the money line on Tuesday plus nine to fifty, now

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Speaker 4: I think you can get double digits on them at

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Speaker 4: some point. I do think it's a fun bet to

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Speaker 4: make here on Sporting BJA. Anything for you here City

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Speaker 4: and the Portuguese.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like Sporting lismon a decent amount here

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Speaker 1: against City. I do think City is a little bit

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Speaker 1: overvalued here on the road. Since the beginning of the

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Speaker 1: new year, City hasn't been putting up the dominant type

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Speaker 1: performances that we've seen throughout most of twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: They obviously they beat Arsenal on the road, but they

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Speaker 1: were gifted a red card in a penalty. They only

296
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Speaker 1: beat Chelsea one nothing, only created point seven expected goals,

297
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,000
Speaker 1: drew with Southampton on the road. They slept through a

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Speaker 1: match against Brentford in the midweek, or they were gifted

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00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 1: a penalty and a goalkeeping mistake, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: they beat Norwich four nothing. Whatever. They're the worst team

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League. Sporting has been playing really well

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Speaker 1: this entire year. And really since the champions like that.

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Speaker 1: A huge match against Porto on Friday which they ended

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Speaker 1: up drawing too too and a crazy brawl ended. You know,

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00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:43,719
Speaker 1: it was at the end of it, So if you

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Speaker 1: want to see that, go watch the video. It's pretty crazy.

307
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Speaker 1: But in the Portuguese First Division they have a plus

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Speaker 1: one point two to three expected goal differential per ninety

309
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Speaker 1: minutes in the sixth most difficult league in Europe. That's

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Speaker 1: pretty impressive. The big thing with Sporting throughout the group

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Speaker 1: stage is they really really struggle against They lost both

312
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 1: by combined nine to three, and you can make the

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Speaker 1: case that that is indicative of what's going to happen

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Speaker 1: here with Manchester City, but I'm not so sure that's

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Speaker 1: the case. I X and City play two completely different

316
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Speaker 1: styles of play.

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Speaker 2: IX.

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Speaker 1: It's one touch football, it's get the ball moving, it's

319
00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,800
Speaker 1: direct attacks, it's trying to overwhelm you.

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Speaker 3: City.

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Speaker 1: As we've been talking about many times on this podcast

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Speaker 1: over the last month, they have turned back into that

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Speaker 1: possession dominant side, slow, pragmatic, trying to basically hold possession

324
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Speaker 1: for in years half for most of the match. Well,

325
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Speaker 1: Sporting's fine playing that way because they usually play up

326
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Speaker 1: a four to four to two, and they're usually not

327
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Speaker 1: They're not used to having a large share of the

328
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Speaker 1: possession because you know, especially when they have play some

329
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Speaker 1: of the bigger sides, so they're used to that kind

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Speaker 1: of style of play. And they do have some attackers

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Speaker 1: that can punish you, like Pablo Serbia form a PSG striker.

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Speaker 1: So I only have City projected at minus twenty eighty five.

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Speaker 1: So I do like Sporting Lisbon on the spread plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half at even money quite a bit,

335
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Speaker 1: and I do think that they will be able to

336
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Speaker 1: maybe get a result here, maybe you know, a one

337
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Speaker 1: nothing loss at home.

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Speaker 4: Anthony, I know you're passing on this one for now,

339
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 4: but do you think City sets up as a type

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Speaker 4: of team to cover a one and a half or

341
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Speaker 4: to cover a big money line here, because like we

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Speaker 4: were saying, we do think that the game state here

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Speaker 4: should suit an underdog, especially a big one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I lean toward the under three goals minus one fifteen

346
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Speaker 5: right now. So Sporting had a negative expected goal difference

347
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Speaker 5: in the group, and I know BJ mentioned it. They

348
00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 5: got pummeled by i X twice and they pummeled Bashitas twice,

349
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Speaker 5: and they played about even with Dortmund over two legs,

350
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Speaker 5: and there was a red card in there for Dortmund,

351
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Speaker 5: so that kind of throws things into a loop. But

352
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Speaker 5: they know they were relatively fortunate when you consider the

353
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Speaker 5: weakness of the group and the fact that they came

354
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Speaker 5: through with the negative goal difference. There's three teams actually

355
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:44,440
Speaker 5: that have a negative expected goal difference Benfica, Sporting Athletical Madrid.

356
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Speaker 5: Benfica and Sporting are in my opinion, the two worst

357
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Speaker 5: teams left in the field. Last year, there was one

358
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Speaker 5: team who had a negative expected gold difference and got

359
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,360
Speaker 5: through the group. It was Munching Bladbach. They lost two

360
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Speaker 5: nil both legs to City. Actually, funny enough, played the

361
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Speaker 5: under three in that match to the first leg. Glodblock

362
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:02,440
Speaker 5: did a pretty good job defensively, but you know, City

363
00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 5: breakthrough one or twice once or twice and it never

364
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,200
Speaker 5: looked like Sporting or in that case Glodboch had a

365
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 5: chance to score. I think it's a similar set up here.

366
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 5: It's which why I lean toward the under And then

367
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,160
Speaker 5: we go back two years ago. It was Leon and Valencia.

368
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,640
Speaker 5: Leon had an insane luck box run to the Semis

369
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,480
Speaker 5: despite conceding like eight or nine expected goals and over

370
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 5: three matches to juve the City Bayern, and then the

371
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 5: year before that was Porto who got in with the

372
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 5: negative expected gold difference and got thrashed by Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: So the history of.

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Speaker 5: Teams who get into this knockout stage with me XG

375
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 5: difference does not go well. But I don't want to

376
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,360
Speaker 5: lay one and a half with City either, so I

377
00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 5: am leaning towards the under and going to probably end

378
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,280
Speaker 5: up passing. Also one more team I mentioned Valencia. They

379
00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 5: give up eight goals and two matches to Atalanta in

380
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 5: the knockout stage. So not a great history for those teams.

381
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Speaker 2: All right, let's flip it to Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: These games should be pretty wide open considering three of

383
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,000
Speaker 4: the teams three or the four teams involved their Liverpool,

384
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 4: Salisburg and Bayern will start with the Liverpool match. They

385
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 4: are traveling to Milan to take on Inter Inters plus

386
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 4: two forty five at home hosting the Reds plus one

387
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 4: ten to draw. Here is plus two sixty Liverpool prohibitive

388
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,840
Speaker 4: favorites to advance minus four fifty Inter three to one

389
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,880
Speaker 4: the Italian side. Let's just go over them real quick.

390
00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:17,440
Speaker 4: We spent a lot of time talking about the Pree

391
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,000
Speaker 4: League on this podcast, so we do talk about these

392
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Speaker 4: bigger clubs in other leagues, but it does beg to

393
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,320
Speaker 4: mention that inter has been really good in Syria A.

394
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 4: They are the title favorites right now best goal differential,

395
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Speaker 4: second in goals allowed and the best expected goal differential

396
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,919
Speaker 4: per ninety and best expected goals four for ninety in

397
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,919
Speaker 4: Syria A, which of course has not really been up

398
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 4: to snuff this year the league in general, especially compared

399
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,680
Speaker 4: to the Premier League, which is far and away the

400
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 4: best league in the world right now. However, this I

401
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 4: think is pretty good spot to back the home side.

402
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,639
Speaker 4: Liverpool's coming off a real slog against Burnley, a one

403
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,160
Speaker 4: zero win which they were pretty lucky to get out

404
00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,520
Speaker 4: of that one with a win thatout vague Horse missed

405
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:59,640
Speaker 4: a couple of big opportunities. Jerreriguez was stuffed by Alison

406
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,239
Speaker 4: as well in the first half. It could have been

407
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,639
Speaker 4: two or three nothing Burnley and it was a rainy,

408
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 4: windy match at turf More. Now they got to travel

409
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 4: to Italy just a couple of days later to take

410
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 4: on Enter.

411
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 2: I think it's a decent spot.

412
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 4: To try to beat Liverpool here. Plus two to forty

413
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,760
Speaker 4: five is a good number on a really good team.

414
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,920
Speaker 4: They might not be in the same tier as Liverpool,

415
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,360
Speaker 4: but just considering the spot, I think the underdog here

416
00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,199
Speaker 4: is worth a shot BJ anything for you.

417
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,399
Speaker 1: I do lean towards Enter, but all ultimately passing. The

418
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 1: problem with US is that ter has had a really

419
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 1: brutal schedule coming out of the international break. They've had

420
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,680
Speaker 1: to play Ac Milan, Roma, Napoli and now Liverpool all

421
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 1: in the span of eleven days, and I'm pretty sure

422
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 1: their best midfield Nico Brea, is suspended for this match

423
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 1: after getting a red card against Real Madrid in the

424
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,360
Speaker 1: group stage. Now, the case for Inter Milan is that

425
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 1: they were essentially better both times against Real Madrid. They

426
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: want unexpected goals in both those matches. They obviously got

427
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 1: the red card in the second one. They're also the

428
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 1: number one team in Syria A and playing through pressure,

429
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:04,919
Speaker 1: you could say there could handle Urgenclops high press fairly successfully. However,

430
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 1: given the form that Liverpool is in right now. I

431
00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 1: know they've played essentially to be their fourth match and

432
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Speaker 1: you know, essentially a week, but the form that Liverpool's in,

433
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 1: especially getting Mosala and Saudi Almane back. It's really troublesome,

434
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,159
Speaker 1: especially when you look at some of the results that

435
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 1: Inner has had versus some of the top sides, and

436
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,360
Speaker 1: Italy haven't really been that dominant. They've got a couple

437
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Speaker 1: wins against you know, Napoli and Juventus and everything like that,

438
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 1: but consistently against the top sides they tend to They've

439
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 1: been struggling as of late, so you know, obviously losing

440
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 1: to ac Milan drawing with Napoli on the weekend. I

441
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 1: will be leaning towards Inter, but I also do not

442
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 1: want to step out in front of this Liverpool freight train,

443
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 1: which is really looking good, healthy and has a lot

444
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 1: of depth, So I'll be passing, but definitely lean towards Intern.

445
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the.

446
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 4: General concesses on the show as I'm going to be

447
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 4: betting Inter on the money line, Anthony, you're also leaning

448
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,640
Speaker 4: that way, so it could be three for three here

449
00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 4: on the Italian side.

450
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, the market's pretty pretty sharp here.

451
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 5: I think if Inter had Berrella and BOSTONI i'd probably

452
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 5: fire on them plus a half a goal, but like

453
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 5: BJ said, they're both out here. I think the most

454
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 5: interesting angle is Liverpool's away form in the Champions League. Now,

455
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 5: some of it is skewed because you know, the last

456
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 5: match they didn't they went to Milan and didn't really

457
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 5: need a result and they kind of played the backups.

458
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 3: But over the last three ish years.

459
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 5: Liverpool's form away from home in the Champions League, especially

460
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 5: in the knockout stage, has been significantly worse than they've

461
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 5: been at Anfield. I think Liverpool ultimately ends up going

462
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 5: through here because they're probably going to dominate the home leg,

463
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 5: but I think they're going to have some trouble here.

464
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 5: Inter is pretty good on the counter and I think

465
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 5: that's the biggest thing here. They played through pressure relatively well,

466
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 5: and they've been a more possession base side this year

467
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 5: than they actually were last year under Conte. That's more

468
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,880
Speaker 5: of the Nzoggie way. But in this situation we've seen

469
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 5: a lot of Liverpool, even today against.

470
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 3: Burnley, getting exposed.

471
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 5: Their defense is just not quite as dominant as it was,

472
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 5: you know, in years past, and I think you know,

473
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 5: whether it's the aging midfield or whether it's you know,

474
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 5: them being just overly hyper aggressive. You know, Trent Alexander

475
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 5: Arnold as much as he gets forward there's always the

476
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 5: space and behind him. I think there are avenues for

477
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 5: interior to get at Liverpool here and this is the

478
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 5: one match I think could end up being really back

479
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 5: and forth.

480
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 3: Of course the next match as well.

481
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 5: But I think of the four relative to the number,

482
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 5: this is the one where if you're looking for like

483
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:26,919
Speaker 5: an over and you want to just have fun and

484
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 5: watch them for some goals, this is the one I

485
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 5: think has the potential to really have a lot of fireworks.

486
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 5: The most interesting thing for Liverpool going forward is Mane

487
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 5: going to start? You know, Luis Diaz, I'm guessing he will,

488
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 5: but you know, are they going to go Jotta? For me, No,

489
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 5: There's so many options that Klopp can have with his

490
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 5: front three. Does he go with Money, Jotta and Salah? Okay,

491
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 5: you lose a little bit of defensive work with those

492
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 5: three because for Mino is not in If you play

493
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 5: for Mino and Jotel on the wing, then Mane is

494
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 5: not in there. So I'm actually to see what clopp

495
00:21:55,760 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 5: does in terms of the tactics here, and so you know,

496
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 5: I lean toward genter, but with Operella and Bestoni, I'm

497
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 5: probably passing.

498
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 4: You're saying that there could be fireworks in this match,

499
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 4: they will almost certainly be fireworks. As a RB Salsburg

500
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 4: are eight to one, hosting Byron Munich minus three ten

501
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 4: to draw here is plus four seventy five. The two

502
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 4: advanced line Byron minus twelve hundred Salsburg six to one.

503
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 4: The over under here, as you'd expect, is set pretty

504
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 4: high three point two five with basically a pick them

505
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 4: on either side three and a half, with the juice

506
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 4: towards the under a little bit. Byron coming off a

507
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 4: really interesting loss to Bochum in the Bundesliga over the weekend,

508
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 4: I guess that was a pretty big, you know, look

509
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 4: ahead spot. I guess maybe we all were sleeping.

510
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 2: On that one.

511
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 4: This game has just considering the way both these teams

512
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 4: can play and both these teams can score. It has

513
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 4: goals written all over it. Is there any I guess

514
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 4: the contrarian value in this matchup here? BJ maybe fading

515
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 4: the back and forth affair that everyone's expecting.

516
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 1: No, I think it's time to square out and taken

517
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 1: over here. It's it's a really it's gonna to be

518
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 1: an open game because, for those who are unaware, Salzburg

519
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: is the sister club of RB leip six. So they

520
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: play a very similar style, high pressing, high intents in

521
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 1: the open style of football, which in a match like

522
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: this against Byron Munich is going to lend itself to

523
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: just a ton of chances at both ends of the pitch.

524
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 1: That is pretty much what we saw between these two

525
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 1: teams last season in the group stage of the Champions League.

526
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: Byron won both matches by a combined score of nine

527
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: to three and over four expected goals were created in

528
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 1: each match. I've said it a million times, but Byron's

529
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: offensive numbers in the Bundesliga and even in the Champions

530
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 1: League just completely out of this world. Two point seven

531
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: to eight expected goals per match in the Bundesliga and

532
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 1: two point three expected goals per match in the Champions League.

533
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 1: So they're going to have no trouble obliterating this Salzburg

534
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 1: defense once again. On the flip side, Salvesburg is pretty

535
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,479
Speaker 1: potent offensively. They have some good young attacking players, obviously

536
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 1: American Brandon Aronson, along with the Demi and other guys

537
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 1: that can potentially, you know, do what Bokam did to

538
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: Byron this past weekend. They're averaging a little over two

539
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 1: expected goals in the Austrian Bundesliga, and they did create

540
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 1: ten point eight expected goals in Champions League group play,

541
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: but you got to put a little asterisk next to

542
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: that because they had five penalties, which we were complaining

543
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: about a lot, if you remember back in October or

544
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 1: whatever that was. We've just seen a time and time

545
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: again that Byron will not take their foot off the

546
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 1: gas if they go ahead. And the Bundesliga this year

547
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: they're averaging three point five expect goals per ninety minutes

548
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: when playing with a lead. That's insanity, and especially this

549
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: being the Champions League Round of sixteen, I'm guessing they're

550
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: going to want to put this to bed, you know,

551
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 1: in the first leg. So I love over three and

552
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: a half goals just currently at plus one ten, I

553
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: have three point six projected, so I'm gonna square out

554
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: and take the over between these two teams.

555
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it could be an interesting one to play live

556
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 4: as well. If there isn't a goal in the first

557
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 4: couple of minutes here, Like you said, this thing could

558
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 4: get off the rails pretty quickly and there's no over

559
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 4: that is going to be dead when these two teams meet.

560
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 4: Anthony anything here between Byron and Salzburg for.

561
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 5: You not really either. You know, bj mentioned how open

562
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 5: the games were last year. I think he's not crediting

563
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 5: enough how competitive Salzburg was in those games. Salisburg creating

564
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 5: you know, one point eight expected goals in the first game,

565
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 5: losing six to two because Byron ran red hot, and

566
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 5: then the first like they actually won the expected goals

567
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 5: battle two point seven to one point three. Now what's

568
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 5: changed since then? Nogosman has come in for Haunsei flick

569
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 5: at Byron, but the personnel is damn near the same

570
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 5: for Byron. Gretzka maybe back not clear whether he'll be

571
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 5: able to play in this game. I think there's a

572
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 5: drop off between him and you know, Cornton Taliso, who

573
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 5: has played well in Spurts, but he's just not as

574
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 5: consistent of a player in the middle for them. So

575
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 5: you know, we you know, if they have to roll

576
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 5: with a Chemick Gretzka or even like a Chemick Mueller Taliso, like,

577
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 5: there's a big difference there between that and how how

578
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 5: solid they are. So that would all point towards Bjay's

579
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 5: over as well. If if Taliso has to play instead

580
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 5: of Gretzka. I think Salsburg can absolutely hit them on

581
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 5: the brake here, but also their x G numbers are

582
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 5: also super underwhelming. I mentioned the stat about non or

583
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 5: negative expected goal difference, Well, let's just take out all penalties.

584
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 5: They would be one of those teams as well. So

585
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 5: I'm ultimately passing here. Of course, the penalties changed the games.

586
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 5: You know, going up a goal on a penalty, you

587
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 5: get the XG for it. If we just take that

588
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 5: out and pretend the goal never happened, it doesn't really work,

589
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 5: but it gives an indication of how fortunate they've been.

590
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 5: And so while I think Adaemmy and them can cause

591
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 5: problems on the counter, I desperately fear Bayern just running

592
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 5: away with this and killing them in transition, similar to

593
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 5: what they did to Leipzig earlier this year, which was

594
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 5: a Marsh team, and there's still some remnants of Jesse

595
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 5: Marsh in the Salisburg side.

596
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 4: And that wraps up the Champions League portion of the show.

597
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,719
Speaker 4: There is a Premier League match this week. There's going

598
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 4: to be some sprinkled EPL matches as they try to

599
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 4: make up games from postponements, and this one is delightful,

600
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 4: just an absolute delight to bet Nanchester United at the

601
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 4: Theater of Dreams minus one thirty five hosting Brighton and

602
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 4: Hove Albion. They're near four to one there plus three

603
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 4: eighty on the three Wayne the draws plus two ninety.

604
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 4: What can you say about what Manchester United has been

605
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 4: going through the past few weeks. They have now had

606
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 4: back to back matches that followed a very similar script.

607
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 4: Good first half, get out to a one er lead

608
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 4: and can't get the separation needed to put teams away,

609
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 4: and Southampton and Burnley have both pegged them back for

610
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 4: draws consecutively. And when you look at the underlying metrics

611
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 4: for these teams over the course of the season, they're

612
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 4: not too far off one of another. I mean, I

613
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 4: think we'd all agree that Brighton should be considered a

614
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 4: top half Premier League team at this point. They have

615
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 4: a great manager and they do punch up really well

616
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 4: as an underdog. They are sitting at a minus zero

617
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 4: point zero two expectacle differential for ninety. Manchester United is

618
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 4: plus zero point zero six in that same metrics, So

619
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 4: really not that much separating these two teams this season.

620
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 4: And we say all the time on this podcast. There

621
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 4: isn't a team you want to back at a bigger

622
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 4: price more than Brighton, and you're getting a great price

623
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 4: against a team truly in miserable. Well, I mean, you

624
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 4: can't sit here in handicap psychology at the team's confidence level.

625
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 4: But it's pretty clear that Mansters United right now they're

626
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 4: fighting some demons and Ralph re Agnick hasn't really figured

627
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: it that part out. He's admitted as such as well

628
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 4: mean and while Brighton hov aal beyond, they just know

629
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 4: exactly what they're supposed to do when they're supposed to

630
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 4: do it on the pitch. So I think it's well

631
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 4: worth it to take a shot here on the money

632
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 4: line on the Seagulls. Anthony, what do you have for

633
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 4: the lone Premier League match? The lonely lonely Premier League

634
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 4: match this week?

635
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 5: I'm taking Brighton, but I don't love it as much

636
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 5: as you and BJ do, I think in the situation,

637
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 5: and the reason for that is that the narrative around

638
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 5: United has become so distorted to reality in the last

639
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 5: three or four matches, where yes, there's the mental thing

640
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 5: where they can't break through and get over the hump,

641
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 5: but they were pretty dominant the first half hour against Southampton,

642
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 5: the first hour against Burnley. Twelve shots to zero. Against

643
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 5: Burnley should have been up two goals, only went up one.

644
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 5: Same thing against Southampton. They had two or three huge

645
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 5: chances and couldn't quite convert, and then they get pegged

646
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,479
Speaker 5: back as they tire out. They've only scored two goals

647
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 5: from their last about seven expected, and if you can

648
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 5: count the Middlesbrough match, it's three goals from about eight

649
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 5: and a half expected. So they're running really cold. And

650
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 5: a lot of that is Ronaldo, whose numbers are frighteningly bad.

651
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 5: When you look at the fact that his shot numbers

652
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 5: have continued to decline and his other numbers. He doesn't

653
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 5: add anything else to this team, so he's really not

654
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 5: doing much for them. But at some point the finishing

655
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 5: is going to turn for United. You could argue they

656
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 5: would do some of this regression after all the luck

657
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 5: box wins they've had over the years when I've and

658
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 5: BJ and I and Michael have faded them. But at

659
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 5: some point it is going to turn around with the finishing.

660
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 5: So I think if you don't want to play Brighton

661
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 5: pregame you'll definitely get a decent shot at them live

662
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 5: as well if United scores early and you have an

663
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 5: invested pregame by Brighton, because the pressing just doesn't last

664
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 5: a full ninety minutes for this United side, and teams

665
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 5: are able to fight back into this game, and I'm

666
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 5: expecting Brighton to be able to do the same. Brighton

667
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 5: have been really good playing from behind, and that's surprise

668
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 5: for a team who has had trouble attacking against teams

669
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 5: who are you know, sitting deeper. And they did beat

670
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 5: Watford to nail pretty comfortably over the weekend. But they've

671
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 5: tended to be a team who, based on their profile,

672
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 5: which struggle to break down teams from playing from behind.

673
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 5: But they actually have done a good job. Uh And

674
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 5: and they have a good set piece record. That's big

675
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 5: against United given that United doesn't defend set piece as well.

676
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 5: So they're my numbers. Make me play Brighton here. I'm

677
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 5: happy to play Brighton. Let me just say I don't

678
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 5: love it as much as as you guys do.

679
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 4: That's real shame, bej. You're sitting here wearing a Brighton show.

680
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 3: I'm still joining them, I'm still batting.

681
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: You carry away, just like some have some energy, have

682
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: some conviction numbers. Come on, come on with us. I

683
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: love Brighton. I mean this is obviously I agree with

684
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: Anthony that United has been trending in the right directions

685
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: in terms of they're expecting goals numbers. They probably should have

686
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: beat Burnley, they probably should have beat Southampton. Obviously, Paul

687
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: Pogba coming back helps them a ton and unlocking their attack.

688
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: And United's pressing numbers have been better they under Ragnik

689
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: they're about ten point two pass per defensive action when

690
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: they're around thirteen point four under Olgni Solshar. But they

691
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: didn't do a really good job against Southampton in terms

692
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: of that pressing, and Anthony has mentioned it multiple times.

693
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: It seems like they're fit enough to press for the

694
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: first half and then after that it kind of just

695
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: drops off. Well, they only had a twenty six percent

696
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: pressure success success rate against Southampton and Brighton. They're one

697
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the Premier League get playing

698
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: through pressure, which is why they profile so well as

699
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: an underdog most times their third in the Premier League,

700
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: and often this pass per defensive action and if we

701
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: look back at their results against the top sides. If

702
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: you throw out the one match that they just got

703
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: completely pounded by Manchester City, they basically have an even

704
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: expecting goal differential versus the top seven. Now, they haven't

705
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: played Tottenham yet this year and this is their first

706
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: match against United. But again, this is what we say

707
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: it all the time. This is the top six defense

708
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: in the Premier League, their third and big scoring chances allowed.

709
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: It's a really really well organized, good squad that is

710
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 1: going to be able to defend United. They're gonna be

711
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: able to play through United's press and most importantly, they're

712
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: gonna be able to press United back because they also

713
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: are pretty up there in the top five and pass

714
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: per defensive action well. United allowed Southampton around nine and

715
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: change past per defensive action. Now you can say Bryden's

716
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: not gonna press that that frenetic of a pace. But again,

717
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: I can't look away from Brighton here. This is a

718
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 1: really really good number for them. I have United projected.

719
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: I believe round plus one twenty, So I love Brighton

720
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: plus half a goal at plus one twenty. Yeah, it's yeah, yep.

721
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 4: It's gonna be a good one to watch for a

722
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: lot of reasons. If United do win I think all

723
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: of a sudden, everyone's going to say, oh, you know,

724
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 4: they are heading in the right direction, top four side.

725
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 4: And if they lose, oh boy, maybe all a going

726
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 4: to social will be back in charge.

727
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: And United schedule is gonna get really really tough in March.

728
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: They have a stretch I believe versus four just really

729
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: hard seas. I'm pretty sure it's like Athleticico, Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham.

730
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 1: It's gonna get really hard for United. So they if

731
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: they want to finish not only top four but the

732
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: top six, they kind of need this match and it's

733
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: and if they don't get it, it's it's going to

734
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 1: be a panic button time for them.

735
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 4: And you throw in the wrinkle of having a deal

736
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: with Diego Simeoni's Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, and

737
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 4: it's it'll be an interesting couple weeks here, as it

738
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 4: always is for Manchester United. All right, let's shift gears

739
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 4: back to Europe real quickly. We'll go through some Europa

740
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 4: League matches. The two headliners that we picked out, Barcelona,

741
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 4: they're minus one oh five taking on Napoli plus two

742
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 4: ninety the Drus plus two sixty five, so as there's

743
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 4: they kickoff twelve forty five pm.

744
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 2: BJ.

745
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 4: You're on this match, you think there's some value here?

746
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 2: What side you taking? Yeah?

747
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: I love Napoli plus half a goal. So if people

748
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: don't know, Napoli is maybe the best defensive team in

749
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: all of Europe right now. They've only allowed eighteen goals

750
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: in twenty four matches and only seven big scoring chances

751
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: all season long, which is insane considering Syria O is

752
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 1: averaging a little over three goals per match the season now.

753
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: Obviously me and Anthony have said that's probably not going

754
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: to staying, but still it's very impressive. Even in the

755
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: Europa League group stage, they had a plus seven point

756
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 1: three expected goal differential in six matches and we're really

757
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 1: undeserving to finish in second place in that group. Barcelona

758
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: obviously has been improving a ton under shabby, around a

759
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: plus seven point five expected goal differential in ten La

760
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 1: Liga matches. They did win their you know, they're obviously

761
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 1: playing Espanol right now as we're taping this, but the

762
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 1: previous weekend they did beat Athletico four two, but they

763
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: only created about one expected goal. So I'm a little

764
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: concerned that they're not gonna be able to create the

765
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: amount of chances that they're used to against the Napoli defense.

766
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 1: That is just incredible. What will be very interesting to

767
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: me is if Barcelona is pressing can be successful now

768
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 1: under Shabby their passes per defensive action is around six

769
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: point seven, which is really, really, really good. But Napoli

770
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: is the second best team in Syria at playing through pressure.

771
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 1: The key here for Barcelona is I think they have

772
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 1: to have a large share of the possession to be

773
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: at their best. Under Shabby they're averaging a little bit

774
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: over sixty percent possession and they rely a lot at

775
00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 1: playing out of the back a lot of build up play.

776
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 3: Well.

777
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: Napoli, they're also fairly possessioned dominant side themselves in Syria A,

778
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: and a lot of what they do is build up attacks.

779
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: They're the second slowest direct speed per optus. So if

780
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: Barcelona is not able to control that large share of

781
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: the possession, Napoli is able to slow this match down

782
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: and make it very pragmatic defensive. I think it's it's

783
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 1: a good spot for Napoli to pick up a result

784
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: here in the first leg. I have this match projected

785
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: very very close to a pick them so I like

786
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: Napli plus Appa Gol minus one fifteen Anthony real quick.

787
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: On Barcelona and Napoli.

788
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, I look towards Barcelona a little bit, but the

789
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 5: numbers is not there.

790
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 3: Like bj said, I cannot get there.

791
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 5: Napoli has been very improved and one of the main

792
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 5: reasons why they're finally getting healthy and Kolabali is back

793
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 5: in the center of the defense and Victor Russelmann is

794
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 5: back from injury, and what do they do in their

795
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 5: first three games? Really, the last three games they played,

796
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 5: they dominate Surnitana, Okay, but you know you still create

797
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:55,720
Speaker 5: four expected goals, control the match against Inter Milan, probably

798
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 5: unfortunate to not take all three points from that match,

799
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 5: I thought, and then dom Benicia as well. So they're

800
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 5: playing a little better, but I would look towards the

801
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 5: under for some of the same reasons Bjay mentioned with

802
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 5: Disnapoli defense significantly improving. Barcelona, I think at home will

803
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 5: have the line, share the possession, but I'm not sure

804
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 5: they'll do a ton with it, and so that sets

805
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 5: up for a pretty conservative games in the first leg,

806
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:18,879
Speaker 5: and then I think the second leg could be more open,

807
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 5: depending on game state and what happens, and you.

808
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 4: Have something for us for Leipe's sake, there minus one

809
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 4: ten taking on real associate Dad plus three ten the

810
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 4: Druws sitting at plus two sixty. Another Thursday kickoff in

811
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 4: the Europa League. For this one where you're going for

812
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 4: Leipsig and Socia.

813
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 5: Dad, Yeah, I'll be doing my Europa League best bets,

814
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 5: taking a page out of the BJ playbook this week,

815
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 5: I believe. So you can see that on the Action Network.

816
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 5: But one pick I really like is the over in

817
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 5: the Leipzig and Socia DoD game. These are two attacks

818
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 5: who have considerably underperformed their expected goals this seasons. Socia Dodd,

819
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 5: we look at it, they only have twenty two goals

820
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 5: in twenty two games. That's pretty dire, but really they've

821
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 5: created about twenty eight twenty eight and a half expected goals.

822
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 5: You expect some positive regression there. And this Leipzig defense,

823
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 5: it seems crazy to say because it feels like they've

824
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 5: been giving up goals left and right. And they have

825
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 5: improved marginally under Dominico Tidesco, the new manager, but you

826
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 5: know they're still conceiding a good amount of big scoring chances,

827
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 5: and so I think sociadd will be able to get

828
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 5: some of those in transition against this Leipzig attack or defense.

829
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 5: So I'm rolling with over two and a half goals

830
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 5: in the first leg, and then I lean toward Leipzig

831
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 5: on the money line as well. But just not a

832
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 5: lot of faith in Germany, given how poorly every team

833
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 5: but Byron played in the Champions League group stage, and

834
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 5: Europa League grop stage wasn't that much better for them either,

835
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 5: So I'm rolling with the over two and a half goals.

836
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 4: And real Quick before we get to our favorite bets

837
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 4: for the Champions League this week, you two can rapid

838
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 4: fires through your other Europa League bets. BJA, We'll start

839
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 4: with you.

840
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick Doorman Rangers over three goals at even money.

841
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: So Earl Holland didn't play today against Unjan Berlin, but

842
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 1: it sounds like he is going to be back for

843
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 1: this match. Obviously, the dormant offense has overperformed a lot,

844
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: but this is a good spot against the Rangers defense

845
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 1: that I don't think has.

846
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:04,959
Speaker 2: Been very good.

847
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: They in the group stage in the Europa League. They

848
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: were in a group with Leone and sparked to Prague,

849
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: and even though they finished in the second place. They

850
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 1: had a minus two expected gold with French against them.

851
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: Even a few weeks ago when Rangers faced Celtic in

852
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 1: the old Firm Derby, they were thrashed by them in

853
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 1: a three to nothing win, and all those goals coming

854
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 1: in the first half. Rangers now does have some fun

855
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 1: attacking options. They brought an Ama Diallo on loan from

856
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: Manchester United. They brought an Aaron Ramsey on loan from Juventus.

857
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: They're averaging two point two expected goals forer match in

858
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: the Scottish Premier League and their matches are averaging three

859
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: point two expected goals. So I mean Dortmund has Holing

860
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 1: Holland in there, and they both able to mimic what

861
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: Celtic was able to do in the Old Firm, which

862
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 1: is basically inverted fallbacks, overloads on each side. It's there

863
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: could be a lot of problems for Rangers. So I

864
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: have this match predicted about three point four goals, so

865
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 1: I love over three goals.

866
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,439
Speaker 4: Even money, Anthony, anything else for you in Europa League?

867
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've got a couple of picks, some fading, some

868
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 5: Spanish teams fading Sevilla, who is going to be laying

869
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 5: a goal and a half at home against Dinamo Zagreb.

870
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 5: This Sevia attack has been an absolute dire straits. Recently,

871
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 5: it took them over an hour to get a shot

872
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 5: against Osasuna. They really struggled against LJA, didn't break through

873
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 5: until like the sixty fifth minute and really only had

874
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 5: four shots I think in the first half. So this

875
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 5: attack just has not been good enough for me to

876
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 5: trust them. The defense has been pretty fortunate, so it

877
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 5: would only really take one goal from Dino Zagreb for

878
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 5: me to feel very comfortable with this plus one and

879
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 5: a half number, even though they're on the road where

880
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 5: you know Zagreb has that great home field, but you

881
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 5: know they don't tend to travel as well. I do

882
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 5: think they're going to go all out for a goal

883
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 5: here and then make it very difficult. Savia just hasn't

884
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 5: played well enough to score three, so I'm taking the

885
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 5: plus one and.

886
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 3: A half and then Zenit. Pj's Russian boys have not.

887
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 5: We backed them a couple times in the Champions League

888
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 5: group stage and they came up short for.

889
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 3: Us conceded some late goals.

890
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 5: But the performances at home we're actually pretty encouraging, especially

891
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 5: against Juve and against Chelsea when they beat them, so

892
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 5: you know, there's reason to think that they can be

893
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 5: very competitive here and should be more favor than they are.

894
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 5: They're about to pick up minus one fifteen you look

895
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 5: at five point thirty eight, has it about as a

896
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 5: toss up. But really, I just don't think this Betest

897
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 5: defense is particularly good. The attack's been running really hot.

898
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 5: There's still some holes for them defensively that I think

899
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 5: Zenic can exploit, and it's can be very difficult for

900
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 5: Bettest to break through on the road, even though you

901
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 5: know the Russians are in the middle of a pause

902
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 5: and you know there could be a war starting by then,

903
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 5: so who knows. But overall, I like zen It at

904
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 5: home in the first light.

905
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing I'll say about that, I obviously have

906
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 1: the weather report from Saint Petersburg on Thursday's actually be

907
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: pretty nice thirty five years and snowing, so for February

908
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 1: that's pretty good I think in Saint Petersburg. I'll give

909
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 1: one more real quick. The Europen Conference League is also

910
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 1: going on, Celtic minus one and a half against Bode Glimpt,

911
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: a Norwegian team. The Norwegian League ends around the beginning

912
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: of December, so they've only been playing friendlies, haven't played

913
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: a real competition, and basically over two months, Celtic's been

914
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 1: an incredible form. They average around two and a half

915
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes in the Scottish Premier League

916
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 1: and really we're a really good offense in the Europa

917
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: League group stage, but we're just in a group with

918
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 1: Bettis and Leverkusen and we're really unfortunate to get through.

919
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: So I think Celtic blows out Norwegian side Boda Glimpt

920
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 1: as well in the Europa Conference League.

921
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,720
Speaker 4: And with that we will move on to the final

922
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 4: part of the show, our favorite Champions League bets for

923
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 4: the first set of knockout round games for the twenty

924
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 4: one twenty twenty two Champions League. Anthony, let's start with you.

925
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 4: What's your best bet for out of the four games

926
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 4: this week?

927
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, Real Madrid PSG under three minus one fifteen. It's

928
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 5: actually the only bet I've play so far of the

929
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 5: four matches. I like next week's card a lot better.

930
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 5: Excited to get into that one as well. But that

931
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,240
Speaker 5: being said, we have two defenses who are considerably trending

932
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 5: up in the.

933
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 3: Last few months.

934
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 5: PSG has gone from conceding about point nine goals per

935
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 5: nine to do about point sixty five. In the last

936
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 5: couple of months. Real Madrid's defense has improved. They were

937
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 5: bottom half of the league in the first half of

938
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 5: the season, and now they've started to come around. They're

939
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 5: up to eighth and expected goals allowed. I really don't

940
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 5: think they're going to press PSG a ton here. I

941
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 5: think they're going to sit off, look to counter, and

942
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 5: PSG will have their best defensive midfield. They're back in

943
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 5: Adrisa Donagey, who had a stellar game against City, and

944
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 5: I think can break up play and won't get overrun

945
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 5: by the midfield given how old Real Madrid's midfield is

946
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 5: as well.

947
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 3: So I think this game sets up to.

948
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 5: Be a little more conservative, both managers kind of feeling

949
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 5: each other out a little bit before we get a

950
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 5: pretty fun second leg in Spain next week. So I'm

951
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 5: going under three goals. Think it could be a one

952
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 5: to one type game and excited for that one.

953
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 3: Really the game of the entire.

954
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 2: Week, Yeah, I'll go next. I like Wednesday match the best.

955
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: I like Inter Milan plus two forty five to pull

956
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:35,400
Speaker 4: the upset over Liverpool.

957
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 2: Like I said, I think this is a pretty.

958
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 4: Tough spot for the Reds. They're traveling from a windy,

959
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 4: rainy turf more where they won one nil to Burnley

960
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 4: on Sunday, traveling to Italy and they will have to

961
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 4: play a lot better than they did against Burnley if

962
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:50,760
Speaker 4: they want to get a result here on the road.

963
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 4: Inter Milan they have the best expectacle differential for ninety

964
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 4: and the best expected goals for per ninety in Syria A.

965
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 2: This is a really good.

966
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 4: Team and one that I think has a lot of

967
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 4: value at plus two forty five at home in a

968
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 4: huge matchup for the Italian side.

969
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 2: So give me intermline.

970
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 4: Plus two forty five is my favorite bet in the

971
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 4: Champions League this week, BJ, what about.

972
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: You Salsburg Bayern Munich over three and a half goals

973
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 1: at plus one ten. Salzburg obviously the sister club of

974
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: RBI Leipsig, so they play a very similar style, high intensity,

975
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: high pressing, very open and that's what we saw when

976
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: these two teams met in the group stage in last

977
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 1: year's Champions League byron one on aggregate nine to three.

978
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 1: All each of the matches had over four expected goals

979
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: created I've said it many times, but Byron's expected goals

980
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 1: numbers this season are so impressive. Around two point eight

981
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: expect goals per match in the Bundesliga two point three

982
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 1: xg per ninety in the Champions League group stage, so

983
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: they should have no trouble ripping apart this Salzburg defense.

984
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 1: Salsburg also another offense that profiles really well. They have

985
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: some fun young attacking guys. They're averaging a little over

986
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: two expected goals in the Austrian Bundesliga. They did create

987
00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 1: around eleven expected goals in the Champions League group stage.

988
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: You obviously have to put an asterisk next to that

989
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 1: because they did get five penalties. But going back to

990
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 1: those two matches against Bayron Munich last year's you know,

991
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 1: Champions League group stage, they created a lot of expected goals.

992
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 1: They were pretty threatening on the counter. So I think

993
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a very open style of game

994
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,439
Speaker 1: and Byron when they get ahead, they do not take

995
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,959
Speaker 1: their foot off the gas. They're averaging three zero point

996
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 1: five expected goals per ninety minutes when playing with the

997
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 1: lead in the Bundesliga this year, so I think this

998
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 1: one has goals written all over it. So I love

999
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 1: over three and a half goals at plus one ten and.

1000
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 4: That wraps up another episode of Wonder Goal for Anthony

1001
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 4: Dubundo at BEAJ Cunningham on Michaeliboff and we will see

1002
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 4: you again on Thursday morning for.

1003
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: Our Premier League preview.

1004
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 4: Best of luck in the Champions League, everybody,