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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing in job.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting it to cash stop. We'll see the.

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Speaker 2: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to

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Speaker 1: make money. All right, It's just the ultimate kabine you

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Speaker 1: want to pack and we are underway. What is up?

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Speaker 2: Everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel. I

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Speaker 1: am your host Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 1: Week fourteen betting freeview where we'll talk about our favorite totals, teasers,

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Speaker 1: money line, underdogs, and of course crack open our weekly

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack of against the spread bets with the

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Speaker 1: help of my co host, the Minister of Degenerous Nation,

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Speaker 1: Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 2: What's going on my second losing week of the year.

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Speaker 2: I think it was the Jets was frustrating, obviously another

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Speaker 2: Vikings frauduleant win, but I thought the week overall was deserved.

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Speaker 2: You know, you can say the Chiefs. I was perplexed

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Speaker 2: by some of the Chief's decision making and you know,

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Speaker 2: the Kelsey fumble. But the Bengals, they dropped a wide

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Speaker 2: up in touchdown. They went for it on fourth down

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Speaker 2: at the at the end of the end of the half.

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Speaker 2: I think it was a well deserved winner. A couple

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Speaker 2: of whiffs and it wasn't a terrible week. But just

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Speaker 2: like the what eight no week the week before, Who cares,

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Speaker 2: We're on to the next week. It's trying to find

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Speaker 2: some winners for week fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple of whiffs from me too, felt good

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Speaker 1: about you know how the Dolphins came out in that game,

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Speaker 1: but it just unrattled quick, you know, bad cap by me.

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Speaker 1: I thought I thought two would be able to get

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Speaker 1: the ball out and but he just looked so uncomfortable

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Speaker 1: even when you know he was getting the ball out.

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Speaker 1: He was just inaccurate in ways we haven't really seen him.

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Speaker 1: So I'll take the l one on that one. And uh,

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Speaker 1: the Titans just ran into a buzz So I'm beginning.

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Speaker 1: You know, the Eagles at home are a lot better to.

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Speaker 2: Burk's getting hurt just crosses their offense and then it's

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Speaker 2: a great game play by the Eagles. Zo We're on

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Speaker 2: to week fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there was jumping to the Thursday at night football game.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 1: We have the Las Vegas Raiders going to La to

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Speaker 1: so Far take on the Rams. I will be at

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Speaker 1: this game. Hearner will be at this game, so it

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Speaker 1: should be fun. The spread is six and a half

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Speaker 1: in favor of the Raiders. Total is forty four and

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Speaker 1: a half. This seems like another one where it's kind

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Speaker 1: of getting away from the Rams, kind of like that

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Speaker 1: Seahawks spread. You know, you can't really point to anything

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Speaker 1: in particular. In my opinion, it's like, oh, yeah, the

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Speaker 1: Rams have a good shot here, but you know, we

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Speaker 1: talked about it last week. Just kind of feels like

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Speaker 1: this is a big number here at six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I got nothing on this game. I mean, you got

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Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs's question, Well, the Rams injuries are wild. His

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Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield gonna end up playing quarterback. Wolford got upgraded today,

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Speaker 2: so you would assume me plays, but who knows. There's

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Speaker 2: just injuries now across the board, in addition to Aaron Donald,

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Speaker 2: who obviously will be out. I do think it's a

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Speaker 2: tad high, but I look for reasons not to bet.

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Speaker 2: There's in a football this game is a mess. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean the Rams are still competent. They're not tanking.

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Speaker 2: There's no they don't get anything to tank for. As

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Speaker 2: I said last week, I have them plus but seven

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Speaker 2: and a half against Seattle which was never really a

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Speaker 2: sweat and look, they still played hard. We're still well

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Speaker 2: coached on a short week. I think there's a coaching

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Speaker 2: advantage here, which matters as well. So, but I don't

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Speaker 2: know how much of a home field advantage is going

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Speaker 2: to be for this, like dead Rams team against a

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Speaker 2: team that's not far away. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 2: how much home field you can give, but yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think a lot is a tap high, but lots of

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Speaker 2: injuries to monitor and lots of uncertainty throw in the

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Speaker 2: Thursday night and this is as easy of as a

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Speaker 2: pass as I'll have all year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have anything on this game either. They

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Speaker 1: just you know, that line just looks high. I feel

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Speaker 1: like if I'm waning it five.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, if you could buy the cheap

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Speaker 2: seven or something evid ends up keep going up, I

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Speaker 2: would definitely look at the Rams if you're itching for

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Speaker 2: action but hard to pass.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the Rams, you know I do think

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Speaker 1: it'd be a good game for DeVante Adams. The Rams

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Speaker 1: play that zone defense, but number one receivers, they're bottom

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Speaker 1: three in d the OA. You know, they don't really

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Speaker 1: stop number one receivers even with Ramsey because they just

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Speaker 1: kind of they don't really get pressure and they just

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Speaker 1: play this soft zone. So let's move on from this one.

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Speaker 1: Don't really need to talk about it too much. Follow

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Speaker 1: Stuck at Stucky two, follow me Actress Raymond in the

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Speaker 1: Action app and see if we have anything there. Let's

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Speaker 1: jump into the Week fourteen Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Forty seven forty. I'm up after thirteen weeks and I

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Speaker 1: got the first pick four week fourteen. For my first

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Speaker 1: pick in the Week fourteen Sunday six Pack presented by FanDuel,

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Speaker 1: I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus four at the

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Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. And this one is just pretty simple to me.

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Speaker 1: The Panthers are competent team, pretty average team with anyone

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Speaker 1: but Baker Mayfield on the field for them, and that

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Speaker 1: includes Sam Darnold. When you look at Mayfield six point

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Speaker 1: four yards in attempt. But what really killed him was

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Speaker 1: just five point three net yards in attempt. He was

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Speaker 1: taking a ton of sacks and he just didn't look

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Speaker 1: right in the pocket. And non midfield quarterbacks for the

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Speaker 1: Panthers seven point three yards in attempts, so almost a

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Speaker 1: yard higher, and then six point six net yards in

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Speaker 1: attempt which is over a yard higher per pass play.

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Speaker 1: So that's big for Seattle. I think that for the

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Speaker 1: Panthers here, and I think this Panthers defense is getting

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Speaker 1: healthier and coming together. I think the buy will do

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Speaker 1: them well. Not only do they get to get healthy,

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Speaker 1: but they get longer time to prepare for this opponent

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Speaker 1: in Seattle. And you know jac Horns, he's gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to take away, Yeah, either Metcalf or Lockett. So

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Speaker 1: on three hundred and sixty one coverage snaps this year,

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Speaker 1: Jacy Horn has only allowed one hundred and thirty eight yards,

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Speaker 1: receiving just seven teen of thirty two caught for one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty eight yards, no touchdowns, two picks, thirty

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Speaker 1: eight point three passer rating. So you figure most plays

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Speaker 1: he's gonna be either on Lockett or Metcalf. You know,

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Speaker 1: obviously they'll move him around. Carolina plays some zone. But

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Speaker 1: you know, that's better than a lot of teams can say.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to deal with those guys. You're still gonna

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Speaker 1: have burns to get some pressure. And this defense is

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Speaker 1: pretty solid across the board when they're healthy. And you know,

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Speaker 1: they're eleventh in EPA per play since Wilkes took over,

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Speaker 1: so it's been a pretty good defense, even though some

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Speaker 1: of the season long metrics don't really back it up.

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Speaker 1: They're also very strong in terms of yards per completion

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Speaker 1: allowed under ten. So you know, this Seattle offense if

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Speaker 1: you don't let them get explosives, and you can eliminate

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Speaker 1: at least on some of the plays, you know, one

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Speaker 1: of their top two options. You know, this is not

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals, so they're not always going to be able

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Speaker 1: to use their tight ends like they did against the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough. And then Seattle go through some

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Speaker 1: things at running back. Right now, they don't they might

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Speaker 1: not have Kenneth Walker, who is that's a pretty big

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Speaker 1: loss for them because he just adds such an explosive

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Speaker 1: element to their offense. He has an ankle strain. He

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Speaker 1: didn't practice Wednesday, and DJ Dallas, one of the backups

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Speaker 1: didn't practice either. Travis Homer has a spray knee, but

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Speaker 1: he is practicing, But it could be Homer, Tony Jones

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Speaker 1: and somebody else to practice squad. And Seattle's averaging only

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Speaker 1: sixty four point seven yards rushing per game over the

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Speaker 1: last three and they're own three against the spread. Over

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Speaker 1: that spin, you say, Okay, why haven't they been able

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Speaker 1: to cover lately? Well, you know, without that running game.

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Speaker 1: Gino Smith, he's been solid, he's been good even, but

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Speaker 1: it puts him in a lot of third in long situations.

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Speaker 1: Just not really an ideal situation for their offense. So

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Speaker 1: I think Carolina can hang around here. I think they're alive, Doug.

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Speaker 1: You know, their defense last three games, two hundred eighty

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Speaker 1: two total yards per game and just under thirteen points

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Speaker 1: per game allow So I really think this defense is

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Speaker 1: coming on. It's gonna make it a struggle, especially Seattle

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Speaker 1: can't get those, you know, couple of long Kenneth Walker

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Speaker 1: touchdowns or just explosive plays that they that they usually

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Speaker 1: bank on. So give me the Carolina Panthers plus four

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Speaker 1: underdogs this year by more than a field goal with

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Speaker 1: a total of forty seven or less, which fits this game.

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Speaker 1: The total is forty four, fifty four and thirty two

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Speaker 1: against the spread sixty three twenty percent ROI so give

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Speaker 1: me the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: You are the Panthers first. I'm not even gonna argue

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Speaker 2: with you. That's the right side in this game. You

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Speaker 2: and your boy Donald come in the war again. So

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna move right on to my first pick

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Speaker 2: and the second overall of the week, fourteenth Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the New York Football Giants plus

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Speaker 2: seven at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Digging into the

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Speaker 2: Eagles this week just on the surface, I you know,

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Speaker 2: circle the Eagles after last week, Okay, probably going to

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Speaker 2: get an inflated line after what they did to the Titans,

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Speaker 2: good Sell high candidate, and I thought that, look, the

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Speaker 2: Titans had a number of injuries, their defense came and

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Speaker 2: bagged up, they had a couple other key injuries on defense,

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Speaker 2: and then once Tennessee lost Treylon Burks couldn't really throw

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Speaker 2: it downfield. And I thought Philadelphia really did have a

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Speaker 2: great game plan for that game. And also I'm just

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Speaker 2: not a believer in Tennessee. I didn't actually end up

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Speaker 2: playing that game. I played it live. Actually I played

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Speaker 2: it a little bit plus eleven, which got crushed too.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, if you look at this Eagles team,

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Speaker 2: they've been, they've had these spots where they've been just

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Speaker 2: looked like a juggernaut this year at home, but they've

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Speaker 2: really struggled on the road, and Jalen Hurts in particular,

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Speaker 2: struggled on the road. When there's seven and sixteen against

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Speaker 2: the spread on the roads since twenty twenty, that's the

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Speaker 2: least profitable team in the NFL over that span. They're

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Speaker 2: one and six against the spread on the road against

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Speaker 2: the NFC East since twenty twenty. And I do think overall,

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Speaker 2: like I have Dallas is now with an injury to

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Speaker 2: Jimmy g we'll talk about that. I have Dallas righted

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Speaker 2: as the number one team in the NFC. I dug

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Speaker 2: into a lot of the Eagles metrics, and I mean

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Speaker 2: it's like, who's their best win, Percy, Like, if you

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Speaker 2: look at Dvoa, their best win is the Lions. When

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Speaker 2: in Week one, when the Lions were not even close

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Speaker 2: to how good the Lions are now, they beat the

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Speaker 2: Vikings either The Vikings ranked twentieth in the NFL my

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Speaker 2: power ratings. They beat the Commanders with Wentz, they beat

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys with Cooper Rush. So you know a lot

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Speaker 2: of their numbers are being helped by playing some backups

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Speaker 2: some teams, and look, they're overall straight. The schedules has

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Speaker 2: been an absolute joke. It's one of the easiest schedules

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Speaker 2: you'll see in the NFL. And what have they done

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Speaker 2: on the road this year? I mean they beat Wentz

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Speaker 2: Wentz pull to Wentz. But they beat the Lions by three.

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Speaker 2: They beat the Texans by twelve games probably closer than

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Speaker 2: that score indicated. They beat the Colts by one, Cardinals

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Speaker 2: by three. These are not great teams. Divisional game catching

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Speaker 2: seven in December. By the way, if you just blindly

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Speaker 2: bet home dogs of seven or more this time of

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Speaker 2: year December or later with fifty five percent over the

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Speaker 2: past thirty years, about a five percent ROI. And for

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Speaker 2: what it's worth, and this goes back to like selling

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Speaker 2: high on a team in December or later. Over the

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Speaker 2: past twenty years, teams of a ninety percent plus win

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Speaker 2: percentage are twenty five fifty three and one against the

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Speaker 2: spread thirty two percent. So I mean everyone wants to

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Speaker 2: back the Eagles right now, right, everyone wants to back

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Speaker 2: the team that's won ninety percent plus of their games,

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Speaker 2: probably at the peak of the market value, which I

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Speaker 2: think they are now, I make this line lower, which

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Speaker 2: is the main reason for this play. How about when

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Speaker 2: those teams play away from home in December or later

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Speaker 2: with a winning percentage of over ninety percent eight thirty

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Speaker 2: two and one against this parad that's twenty percent. So

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Speaker 2: a lot of trends here. They just basically go back

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Speaker 2: to the fact that I think that the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: a bit overvalued compared to my numbers. Seven obviously is

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Speaker 2: a really critical number here. Eagles haven't been the same

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Speaker 2: team on the road. Giants just find ways to ugly

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Speaker 2: these games up, make them like twenty to sixteen, twenty

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Speaker 2: three to ninth. That's what this game will be lean

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Speaker 2: under here as well, which he gives more value to

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Speaker 2: the home divisional dog. Really important game for the Giants.

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Speaker 2: I think that they can keep this closed. Home divisional

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Speaker 2: dog catches seven. So many Eagles high here on the road.

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Speaker 1: Give me the g man, Yeah, I think the key

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Speaker 1: is the Eagles on the road. They just haven't been

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Speaker 1: dominant on the road. They've just been a little bit

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Speaker 1: more closer to the middle of the pack. And then

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Speaker 1: you know some of these home game. I know they

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Speaker 1: did lose the home game, what was it to Washington,

254
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Speaker 1: But generally speaking, you know, when you look at them

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Speaker 1: on the road, they've been a different team. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's the biggest reason here.

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Speaker 2: You know, home divisional dog catching seven. You know in December,

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Speaker 2: that's in the running. That's going to catch my attention,

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Speaker 2: which is why I'm leading off with the Giants. Where

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Speaker 2: are you going next?

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Speaker 1: Let's go with the Detroit Lions minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half at home against the Minnesota Vikings.

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Speaker 2: De Truck.

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Speaker 1: I really like this Detroit team, and I think this

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Speaker 1: is a sharp line. You know, a lot of people

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Speaker 1: look at it and say, oh my god. Ten and two.

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Speaker 1: Vikings are underdog to the Lions. Who you know, a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago everyone thought it might be in the

269
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Speaker 1: running for the the top overall pick. But I think

270
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Speaker 1: the Lions are a better team first of all, and

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Speaker 1: you know the underlying metrics back that up. So you

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Speaker 1: will take DVA since it's pretty popular. Lions thirteenth overall,

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Speaker 1: Vikings twentieth Lions ninth on offense. Vikings eighteenth on offense defense,

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Speaker 1: where everyone thought the Lions were just the worse than

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Speaker 1: the league at one point, and they were, but you know,

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Speaker 1: they fired defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant, They've gotten a

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Speaker 1: lot better schematically, They're young players are coming on. So

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Speaker 1: now they're nineteenth in defense VOA Minnesota eighteenth, so it's

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Speaker 1: pretty much a wash, which.

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Speaker 2: But the Lions are trending up and Vikings are not.

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Speaker 1: We've come a long way. Yeah, Vikings are actually twentieth weighted,

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Speaker 1: So yeah, Vikings are actually worst team on defense, which

283
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Speaker 1: is pretty remarkable given you know, it's pretty much like

284
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Speaker 1: a four or five week turnaround there for Detroit and

285
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Speaker 1: then Detroit ninth on special teams, Minnesota twentieth. But there's

286
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Speaker 1: so much any more things to like in this matchup

287
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Speaker 1: beyond just Detroit's the better team. The matchup in terms

288
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Speaker 1: of the scheme of Detroit's defense against Minnesota's offense is

289
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Speaker 1: advantage Detroit. So they play the fifth most man coverage

290
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Speaker 1: because they a ton, They witzed at the sixth highest rate,

291
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Speaker 1: about thirty two percent, and first of all, Minnesota is

292
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Speaker 1: allowing the eighth most pressure in the league, just under

293
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Speaker 1: twenty five percent. But kirk Cousins has not been good

294
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Speaker 1: against man coverage this year. And it used to be

295
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Speaker 1: you know, zones and certain type of zones used to

296
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Speaker 1: give them problems with this year, it's it's been the

297
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Speaker 1: man coverage. They are twenty seventh in the league and

298
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Speaker 1: yards per targeted pass attempt against man coverage at six

299
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Speaker 1: point eight. They're over a yard higher against zone and

300
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Speaker 1: en folsure to the middle of the pack and then

301
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Speaker 1: you look at offense. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So it's kind

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Speaker 1: of some of the things we used to think about

303
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Speaker 1: Cousins are they're kind of flipped in a way. But

304
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Speaker 1: he's he's not having a great year. I mean, even

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Speaker 1: with all those weapons, he's the yards for attempt as low,

306
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Speaker 1: the yards for completion as well. They're having to throw

307
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Speaker 1: a ton to get their passing production. But against the

308
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Speaker 1: Blitz in particular, which again I don't like the Giants,

309
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Speaker 1: you just know Detroit is going to bring some blitzes.

310
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Speaker 1: This is what they love to do with Aaron Glenn.

311
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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins has a grade of fifty two point six

312
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Speaker 1: from PFF against the Blitz. That is thirty fourth of

313
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Speaker 1: thirty eight qualified quarterbacks, So he has not been good

314
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Speaker 1: against the Blitz this year, you know, not good against pressure,

315
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Speaker 1: which the Lions are getting more. They're up to the

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Speaker 1: middle of the pack in pressure rate, which means they're

317
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Speaker 1: probably top ten over the last four or five weeks

318
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Speaker 1: because you know, they started pretty low. So this Minnesota's offense,

319
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Speaker 1: even though they have all those studs, doesn't necessarily mean

320
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Speaker 1: it's a good matchup for him. Now you look at

321
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Speaker 1: Detroit on offense, and Detroit can match Minnesota with firepower.

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Speaker 1: We've got DeAndre Smith healthy. He played his most snaps

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Speaker 1: since week one. He had eighteen touches, which were his

324
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Speaker 1: most touches since week one. Last game, he averaged six

325
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Speaker 1: point four yards of touch, So that's a major, major

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Speaker 1: boom for them to have him healthy. Then you have

327
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Speaker 1: the entire receiving court healthy. You have a mon ros

328
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Speaker 1: Saint Brown, even though he took that big hit, came

329
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Speaker 1: back scored another touchdown in that game. You have Chark

330
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Speaker 1: healthy and playing really well. You have Josh Reynolds healthy,

331
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Speaker 1: you have Raymond healthy, and you have Jamison Williams healthy

332
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 1: and he's actually ahead of schedule. Got about eight nine

333
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 1: ten snaps in that last game last week. So what

334
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Speaker 1: the lines have been doing, has been easing guys in

335
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Speaker 1: in that first week at receiver and then they you know,

336
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,920
Speaker 1: up the snaps in their second game. So James and

337
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Speaker 1: Williams could be a factor in this one. And you

338
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,440
Speaker 1: add you know swift, you add you know, Williams is

339
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,560
Speaker 1: almost automatic at the goal line in this Minnesota team

340
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 1: not great on defense. They don't really blitz a lot.

341
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Speaker 1: They're not the twenty thirty in pressure rate, and uh,

342
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Speaker 1: you know, God, yeah, that's the way you get to God,

343
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Speaker 1: it's pressure. He has a one on I'm passer rating

344
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Speaker 1: quan sixty one passer rating under pressure. But Minnesota's you know,

345
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 1: bottom twenty five percent in pressure rates. So it shouldn't

346
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 1: be a massive effect here. And Detroit is at home,

347
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Speaker 1: and at home that's offensive lines usually play better. Detroit

348
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Speaker 1: as one of the best, Detroit averaging thirty one point

349
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Speaker 1: nine points per game at home eighteen point four on

350
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Speaker 1: the road, so massive difference. The point differential at home

351
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 1: plus four, the point differential on the road minus seven

352
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 1: point four, so an eleven point four point swing home

353
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Speaker 1: to road for the Lions. So love them under field,

354
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Speaker 1: go here, Think they win this game. Think this this

355
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 1: is the correct line here, even though it might look

356
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 1: on to people give me the Lions minus two and

357
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Speaker 1: a half.

358
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Speaker 2: I completely agreat team. By the way, teams with a

359
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 2: winning percentage of seventy percent plus or greater in December

360
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 2: or later over the past thirty years forty percent against

361
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 2: the spread. As you might expect, the Vikings are ten

362
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 2: and two with a tech club ten net scoring margin.

363
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 2: And the last time a team with its starting quarterback

364
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,400
Speaker 2: and an eighty percent plus win percentage was an underdog

365
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 2: versus a team that was under five hundred in December,

366
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 2: the nine and two Falcons with Mike Vick in two

367
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 2: thousand and four, they were short underdogs against the Bucks

368
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 2: the four and seven Bucks, and the Bucks won twenty

369
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 2: seven to nothing. But yeah, I completely agree here. I

370
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 2: think the lines are trending up because their defense they're

371
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 2: getting healthier. You gotta remember they were playing without Swift,

372
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 2: they had offensive line injuries. They were playing with without

373
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Speaker 2: aman Ross Brown for a couple of games. Let's just

374
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Speaker 2: compare these two teams. Vikings thirty first in the league

375
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Speaker 2: in net yards per play, thirty first, Lions twenty fourth.

376
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 2: You mentioned DVA Vikings twentieth, Lions thirteenth offense. You said

377
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Speaker 2: ninth offense for Lions DVA and Vikings eighteenth. Same thing

378
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:54,880
Speaker 2: in EPA per play Lions ninth, Vikings eighteenth defense, same

379
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 2: exact story. If you look at EPA per play, how

380
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,199
Speaker 2: much special teams Lions even better in that department, like

381
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 2: just no matter where you look. And also that the

382
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 2: Vikings are plus eight turnover margin. They're nine to zero

383
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 2: in their lasted nine to one possession games. You know,

384
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: they were blown out by the Eagles and Cowboys. They

385
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 2: just get fluky win after fluki and they should have

386
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,400
Speaker 2: lost that first game against the Lions if not, they

387
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: were down double digits in the fourth quarter, niffed on

388
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 2: for a busted coverage and a bad fourth down decision

389
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 2: by Campbell. But I mean they just think got out

390
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: the game by two hundred yards last week against the Jets.

391
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 2: This team's luck is going to run out. I mean,

392
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 2: no matter where you look, they are below average. I

393
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 2: have the twentieth in the NFL right now. It is bad,

394
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 2: and the Lions are trending up charging I think they've

395
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 2: covered five straight. They're five to one and one against

396
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 2: the spread after the buye the one game that they

397
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 2: didn't cover. Was a fluke really a fluky loss at Dallas,

398
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 2: Like they were right in the game at the end,

399
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 2: and there was they fumbled at the one, and they

400
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: could have easily covered that game. They were in a

401
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 2: position to take a lead in the fourth quarter. This

402
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: Vikings voodoo magic won't last forever. I like the Lions

403
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: here too. It is an odd looking line, you know,

404
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: but it's moved from like one to two, and athletsought

405
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 2: a huge dal off to three will be you want

406
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,399
Speaker 2: to get this under three? I actually money line the

407
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 2: lines with the Cowboys in a parlay.

408
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 1: It's still in a better value to get the two

409
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 1: and a half than to take you know whatever, like

410
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five. I think it is the money line.

411
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 1: Like you would still rather take the two and a

412
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: half even though anything under three, right, I.

413
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: Would, I would take a turn half instead of that

414
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 2: in this particular game with where the total is two.

415
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: It's a high total. But if you can find a

416
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: cheap you know you're increasing your guys, I just don't

417
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: see there's I just I've done. I did this last week,

418
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 2: by the way, I got lucky you guys who got

419
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 2: a losing week. I had the forty nine Ers money

420
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 2: line parlay with the Ravens talking about getting lucky with

421
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 2: the Ravens teams where I think, oh, in two hundred

422
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: and six, it's nineteen ninety five with without failing to

423
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 2: score more than ten points and the negative two turnover

424
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 2: March and guess what, the Broncos found a way to

425
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 2: end a two stream. So yeah, I personally parlayed the

426
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,679
Speaker 2: Cowboys money line. I just don't see the Cowboys with

427
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 2: the Lions money line. But I don't mind the minus

428
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: two and a half either. It's high total. The only

429
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: thing that that scares me a little bit is if

430
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 2: you get on funky scores because the Vikings kicking. The

431
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: Vikings especially suck and like Joseph missus a bunch of

432
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 2: extra points, so like you could get a weird score

433
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 2: going for two, but very small percent of chance. I

434
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: don't mind laying the two and a half here. This

435
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: Viking stuff it's got it's got to run out of inch.

436
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 2: We saw Mike White's move up and down the field,

437
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 2: especially in that second half. We said, oh, look Mac

438
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 2: Jones after the Viye, that offense looks a lot better. Well,

439
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,199
Speaker 2: that wasn't the case against the Bills last week. I

440
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 2: think that was just more about the Vikings defense lines

441
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 2: are surging. Hello, Detroit.

442
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: One, all right, we are you going with your next one?

443
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth overall of the

444
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: week fourteen Sunday six pack, I'm gonna go with the

445
00:22:55,560 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 2: Let's go to the Jacksonville Jaguars plus four at the

446
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans. Now, look, there's a chance that Trevor Larrence

447
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 2: doesn't play, But from everything that I've read and people

448
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 2: that I talked to, I think that he's going to

449
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 2: be okay. And Peterson came out to that head and

450
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 2: sad he expect him the practice later the week. He

451
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 2: came back in the game last week, let a touchdown drive.

452
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 2: He only had three drives in the second half as

453
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: the Lions just controlled the ball the whole time, but

454
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 2: he was able to come back in. It's a tow.

455
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 2: It's not like he's a receiver, so you know, we've

456
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 2: seen many quarterbacks play through it might be painful, but

457
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 2: the fact that he came back in last week, I

458
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 2: think he'll be good to go. You know, the Jaguars

459
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 2: buying low on them after they're embarrassing loss. We're going

460
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 2: to get a tab to the value. But the Titans

461
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: also got blown out. So what's the difference here. Well,

462
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: this Titan tee needs to win with margin, which is

463
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: tough for them to do. This is when you want

464
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: to fade Brabile when he's a favorite of over a

465
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 2: field goal. And how you attack this Jags team is

466
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 2: you throw on them. I mean, you look at that

467
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: they've they've been pretty much within one possession of every

468
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 2: game this year. But the reason I liked him against Baltimore,

469
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: you know, the Ravens don't have great receivers, are not

470
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 2: going to kill you on the outside. The Lions just

471
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: shredding them. Goff I think was the number one quarterback

472
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: in EPA per play last week out of any quarterback

473
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: that played. And they just have an awful secondary. Well

474
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 2: what Tennessee without troyon Bark So I doubt it's gonna

475
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 2: play new concussion protocol. These receivers don't play a week

476
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,479
Speaker 2: after in general of getting a good cussion, So they

477
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 2: just don't have that downfield threat. And you know they

478
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: can be a little play action, but the strength of

479
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: this Jags defense is their run defense, so they can

480
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 2: load the Boxer's an above average run day. It's a

481
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: horrible pass d but that's okay. Against this Tennessee team

482
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 2: with a battle line, it's, you know, a hobbled We'll

483
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: see if Ryan Tannehill's fully healthy. Most importantly, it's it's

484
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 2: the defense for Tennessee is just crushed by injury. I've

485
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 2: mentioned how important I thought Autry was, and I mean

486
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 2: I thought he was going to be back like within

487
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 2: a week or two. But it doesn't look like that's

488
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 2: the case. He didn't practice again that I didn't practice

489
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 2: at all last week, so I would assume he's out.

490
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Simmons dealing with an ankle. I think he should

491
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 2: have rested it. And now your secondary is getting decimated.

492
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: You saw them last week. They're down to Roger McCreary,

493
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 2: and you know Trey Avery was getting burnt. Trey Avery's

494
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 2: now hold Fulton is hurt. I mean, it's Molden is on.

495
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 2: I I mean it is crazy. This is just a

496
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 2: complete mash unit on defense. So divisional game catching over

497
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 2: a field goal this year low total. With all the

498
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 2: injuries that Tennessee has, I'm assuming Lawrence will play. If

499
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: he doesn't play, it's not dead, but I'm assuming that

500
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 2: he will and he'll have success with his receivers in

501
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: ETN on the outside, just because this Tennessee defense is

502
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: a shell of itself. Jacksonville at four, Now that is

503
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: ticked up with the uncertainty around Lawrence, which I think

504
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: is more noise than anything. Give me the Jags here

505
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: catching four.

506
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: What are you to make of the Jags inconsistency? Like

507
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: this Jags team that never seems to string together two

508
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: straight good games because they have talent.

509
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: I think it comes out of the quarterback. Now, there's

510
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: part of it is that their defense is the way

511
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 2: that it's structured schematically, and then where the talent lies

512
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: that if they do have a bad matchup and like

513
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 2: a quarterback is on, they could get shredded, you know,

514
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 2: through the air. But if they're playing an unopposing offense,

515
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: I can't really throw it. That relies on the run

516
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: game they can hang. But then I think the most

517
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: Chucklemount is this Trevor Lawrence is and I think he's

518
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 2: just in consistent. I mean, you're not gonna need to

519
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: score a ton of points to keep up here. It's

520
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 2: not like you're going to Kansas City and at least

521
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,479
Speaker 2: the team's been scrappy for the most part. I mean,

522
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: they haven't lost the game by more than ten and

523
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: all their other losses were by one possession before last week,

524
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 2: and I think they just got caught but made a

525
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: buzzsaw after, you know, a big win against the Ravens.

526
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 2: They went up and I don't think they were really prepared.

527
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: The only thing I really can do is fade the

528
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 1: jack because I really have no feel of like when

529
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: the better on them and out, So don't have any

530
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: feeling when to bet they're unders. You know, I thought

531
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 1: I had one with the with that Baltimore agame, but

532
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. Their defense is kind of

533
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,120
Speaker 1: I guess it's what you said, they're just not good

534
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: against the past. But I mean some of the defensive

535
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: numbers honestly alarm me too. I mean, they gave up

536
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty four yards to the Coats, they

537
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 1: gave up four hundred and thirty six yards to the Giants.

538
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I can never get a feel for this one,

539
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: but yeah, hopefully hopefully they come through for you. For

540
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: my third and final pick in the fifth overall of

541
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 1: the week fourteen Sunday six Pack presented by Fandel. I'm

542
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: going with the Baltimore Ravens plus two and a half

543
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh, and we'll talk about this number. I think

544
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 1: there might actually be some value and buy it up

545
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: to three. But I do think they win this game,

546
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the two and a half

547
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: for the contest regardless. But you know, looking at Pittsburgh,

548
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: I no time I'm homely starting for Baltimore, but I

549
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: think I think now's a decent time to set on Pittsburgh.

550
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,719
Speaker 1: You know, they're coming off two straight road wins. In

551
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: one of the games, you know, the Coats the corpse

552
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: of Matt Ryan, can't get a first down until the

553
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: second quarter, and then the next one you got Marcus

554
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: Mariota just finding ways to lose games, as he tends

555
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 1: to do for the Falcons. But I just think this

556
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: is a toss up game. Baltimore is going to be

557
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: very motivated. You know, Pittsburgh keeps inching past them and

558
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: giving them the tough losses. So I do think you're

559
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: going to see a great effort from Baltimore. And you know,

560
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 1: this offense has kind of been lee You've talked about

561
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: it a couple of weeks ago, this offense has kind

562
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: of been stuck in the muddle a little bit as

563
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: of late. So you know, going from Jackson to hunt

564
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 1: we I mean, now you have a less tape of

565
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Huntley had a really good connection with Mark Andrews,

566
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: so maybe you could get that going. So they're just

567
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: a lot of things that I think make this kind

568
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: of a toss up game. You know, Baltimore's defense is

569
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: coming on of late, you know, thirteen point three points

570
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: per game since they acquired rokwand Smith, two hundred and

571
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: sixty three total yards per game over those last four games.

572
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: And Canny Pickett he's you know, he shows slashes, but

573
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: he's still the type of quarterback that in this kind

574
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: of game can easily lose the game for you because

575
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: or maybe I put it a different way, not winning

576
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: the game because he is only Baker Mayfield is worse

577
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: in passer rating from a clean pocket, I'll put it

578
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: that way. Sixty seven point six passer rating from a

579
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: clean pocket. It's thirty six of thirty seven qualified quarterbacks.

580
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: So you know, even if Baltimore is not getting a

581
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: ton of pressure, which I think they're getting more now

582
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: than they were earlier in the year. But this is

583
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: the kind of game where you know the Steers could

584
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: easily score you know, ten, twelve, thirteen points. And you

585
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: look at Tyler Huntley in his career and it's been

586
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: you know, two point win, one point loss, one point loss,

587
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: three point loss. Like every game is close. Every Stealers

588
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: Ravens game is close, which is why I do think

589
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: it might have there might be some value in buying

590
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: up to the three here. But you know Pittsburgh is

591
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: they average the fewest yards per attempt against man coverage

592
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: and the third host against zone. So they're just like

593
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: this Baltimore defense as talent, They're getting healthier. It looks

594
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: like Ronnie Stanley practicing full. So I just think this's

595
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: Baltimore team. There's not a huge gap here, even with

596
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: Huntley summoning for Lamar. I think this is a toss

597
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: up game. I have it as such, and yeah, I'm

598
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: taking Baltimore here. Expect them to finally win one against

599
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh or maybe lose by a point or two like

600
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 1: Huntley does sometimes. But I expect this one to be close,

601
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: as all these Ravens Steelers games tend to be. It's

602
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: Baltimore gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

603
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the Ravens are going to carry some

604
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 2: of them a minimum of from last week. They were

605
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: the fourth team in NFL history to lead by two

606
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 2: possessions the fourth quarter of the first eleven games. Three

607
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 2: were eleven and now they were seven and four. Everything

608
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,239
Speaker 2: was going wrong at the end, and then they win

609
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: one of these miracle games. So I think it was

610
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 2: kind of like a cy relief to kind of steal

611
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 2: one of those games. And I do think you're right

612
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: on the defense. I mentioned this is about a month.

613
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 2: I think the defense is with Rokan Smith. They added

614
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: some edge depth, They're going to get healthier, and their

615
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 2: secondary is going to be fine. I mean, look at

616
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 2: Marlin Humphrey by the lab. I mean he's been absolutely

617
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: dominants about three hundred and twenty five yards all seasons,

618
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 2: zero touchdowns, three interceptions, He's three sacks, six pressures, only

619
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 2: three penalties all year. He's he could argue he's the

620
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 2: best cornerback in the NFL right now. He's he played

621
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 2: Courtland Sutton no catches, Jamar Chase two catches for nineteen.

622
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: This is when he's in single coverage Stefan Diggs one

623
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: for seventeen, Christian Kirk two for thirteen, Olave one for seven,

624
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: Tyreek Kill one for five, Waddle four targets, one catch

625
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: four yards, DJ Moore two catches nineteen yards. He just

626
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 2: locked up basically every receiver across the board. It's going

627
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 2: to be ugly. I would look at the under. It

628
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: just feels like this feels like the old classic Ravens games,

629
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens Steelers games. That'll be just ough. What's total

630
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: thirty seven? I yes, so low, but I would dive

631
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: slowly in under.

632
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: Pickt's just been so erratic from a clean pocket, and

633
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: Baltimore has so much talent on defense that and obviously

634
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh as well on the other side. I just I

635
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: do worry about like turnovers deep in the you know,

636
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: the opposing territory, because you know Tucker is not missing

637
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: any any field goal inside of like sixty. Would you

638
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: buy up to three like past like one twenty.

639
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 2: Or just minus one twenty five for sure?

640
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: Yeah?

641
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. Since two thousand and eight when Harball got to Baltimore,

642
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 2: faves of more than a field goal in the Ravens Steelers'

643
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: matchups are one fifteen and two against the spread one

644
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 2: fifteen and two of any team that was laying more

645
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 2: than a field goal. Now generally it's just like you're like,

646
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: they're like three and a half or four, right, It's

647
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 2: not like these teams have been separated by that much

648
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: over the years. But yeah, one fifteen and favorites of

649
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 2: over field goal on this matchups in two thousand and

650
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: eight insanity.

651
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think I am gonna end up

652
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: buying up to the three.

653
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: Obviously, I'm wait, just wait to see and if you

654
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 2: see it ticking down, but I do think it's worth it.

655
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: With this total, and in this particular matchup.

656
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 1: Our ball is twelve two and two eighty six percent

657
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: against the spread when he's on the road in the

658
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: division from Week ten on so essentially on the back

659
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: half of the season, including four one one eighty percent

660
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 1: as a dog, And he's overall thirty two, twenty two

661
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: and three fifty nine percent against the spread as a

662
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,719
Speaker 1: road underdog in his career, and Mike Tomlin as a

663
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: favorite is eighty ninety two and two. So all those

664
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: stats we talk about, you know, with him as as

665
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 1: an underdog, you know, he's not very good as a favorite.

666
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 1: These tend to be kind of letdown spots for the

667
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 1: for the Steelers, So yeah, give me some, give me

668
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: some Ravens. I'm gonna cut you off because like when

669
00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: you're out of time, we all.

670
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:04,479
Speaker 2: Know it, all right. For my third pick and the

671
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 2: sixth overall of the week fourteen Sunday six pack, I'm

672
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 2: going with the Denver Broncos plus nine and a half.

673
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 2: I believe this is the first time I'm betting the

674
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: Broncos this year, taking plus nine and a half. I

675
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 2: will bet plus nine and a half. But it's at

676
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 2: nine and a half right now, so why that it.

677
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 2: I'm going to wait to see if it does touch

678
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 2: ten obviously a key number in a matchup where the

679
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 2: Chiefs have won thirteen straight overall against the Broncos amazingly enough.

680
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: The actually I do, but I bet the Broncos when

681
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson didn't start and lost, but I should have won.

682
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 2: I did not bet the Broncos. I faded Zach Wilson.

683
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 2: I want to make that clarify. But what do I say?

684
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: Every week? Every Broncos game is the same. It's a replay.

685
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 2: They lose in a low scoring game in the teams

686
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: every week. They've lost one game by double digits, and

687
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 2: that was when like a pan the Panthers got.

688
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: The Panthers I believe were their biggest loss, you know,

689
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: because yeah.

690
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 2: For they've lost like three games in overtime. This is

691
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: a team, by the way, they were just plus eight

692
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: and a half at Baltimore and they covered, so I

693
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 2: had to upgrade them from last week. I make this

694
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:12,240
Speaker 2: around a touchdown unders eleven and one in Broncos games.

695
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 2: That's only happened one of the time the last twenty

696
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: years and two thousand and three. Bills Mahomes, when you

697
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 2: want to fade them, look, I mean he's never lost

698
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: on the road in division he's fifteen to oh straight up.

699
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 2: But when you want to fad him, it's when he's

700
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 2: a favorite of seven or more on the road. He

701
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 2: is seven oh straight up one and six against the spread.

702
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: And if you just look overall, that's in division games.

703
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 2: If you look overall, that's when you want to fade Mahomes.

704
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 2: When he's a favorite of over a touchdown. And so yeah,

705
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: there's just scripts. This is a home divisional dog catching

706
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: over a field goal. The defense is playing lights out.

707
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 2: They're going to show up here for the Chiefs. And

708
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 2: one of the things I do like under Kubiak, like

709
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 2: the results because they changed play callers to Kubiak, from

710
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: Packet to Kubiak, and the results haven't been there in

711
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,319
Speaker 2: the red zone in school. But they're going with just

712
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: a much heavier personnel and they're using like three tight

713
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: ends and they're just running the ball going slower, and

714
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: I think that can work. Using more placx, Russ isn't

715
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 2: getting hit as much, he's not having as many turnover

716
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: worthy plays, and they're getting more manageable third downs and

717
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: hasn't translated yet into conversion percentages in the red zone.

718
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,720
Speaker 2: I mean, it's amazing. Their red zone numbers of defense

719
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 2: are ridiculous, and then the red zone numbers on offense are horrendous.

720
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 2: That's why they're going to potentially lead the league scoring

721
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 2: on defense and be dead last on offense. But they're

722
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: going really heavy, and I think that can work against

723
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 2: this Chiefs defense. It's twenty six in lineyards, twenty six

724
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: and stuff rate, so you can kind of keep Mahomes off.

725
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 2: The Bengals kind of did some of that last week.

726
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: You keep ball control, keep that Chief's offense on the sidelines,

727
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 2: and the Broncos defense is just every week they show

728
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: up and they ball out. Here, I think this is

729
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 2: just tad too high. I'm gonna be waiting on the

730
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: ten here, but I think that the Broncos can follow

731
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,280
Speaker 2: the script and lose this game by three to seven.

732
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 1: What I'm struggling with here, are the Broncos the better

733
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: play or is the under the better play, because I

734
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: only think one or two of the Broncos games have

735
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: even gotten to the total at like forty three and

736
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: a half. But you know, then I'm looking at the

737
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: Chiefs and I'm like, Okay, well know they go on

738
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 1: the road and put up forty four in San Francisco,

739
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 1: forty they put up we like forty one on Tampa Bay,

740
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: Like they put up big numbers on some good defenses.

741
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 1: So then I'm like, you know, I don't know. And

742
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 1: then I look at the action appen usually, like you

743
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 1: see the sharp signal for almost every underworth betting is

744
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 1: just you know, sharks tend to bet unders because most

745
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: of the public doesn't, and I just don't. I don't

746
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 1: see the at least it hasn't been hit yet, so

747
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 1: I just wondered what your opinion is on that, because

748
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 1: I'm guessing, you know, if you think the Broncos are

749
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 1: going to cover, you think this game is going under.

750
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's there's but also especially if I can get

751
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 2: ten then and the total, I mean, it's just so

752
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 2: hard to play Chiefs. What is a total sitting.

753
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: Out right down three and a half?

754
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, forty three I would be lean under. I make

755
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 2: it like forty one and a half. But if it's like, uh,

756
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 2: you know, twenty seven to thirteen, which is pretty like

757
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 2: pretty comprehensive, and the Broncos have the ball late, I

758
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 2: mean even twenty four to thirteen, and the Broncos have

759
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 2: the ball late, and the Chiefs are kind of just

760
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 2: playing prevent and then you know, Russ goes down and

761
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: gets a touchdown and then it's you know, a twenty

762
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 2: four to twenty final, a twenty seven to twenty final,

763
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 2: and that's what puts it over and then you get

764
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: your cover. So even if the Broncos offense doesn't do

765
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 2: anything and they're around like that ten to thirteen, but

766
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,240
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are around like twenty four to twenty seven,

767
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 2: you can still easily get a cover in that you know,

768
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: especially if you're getting ten. So that's the only thing

769
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 2: I would worry about. But I get your point. But

770
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 2: there also could be the chance where you get a

771
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 2: back door that gets you the cover but also puts

772
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 2: it over. So uh yeah, I don't hate the under here.

773
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 2: I do think there's some correlation, but I prefer the

774
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 2: Broncos just a little bit.

775
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you get a lot of points in a

776
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: low total game, so I get I get it. At

777
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: the end of the day, you'd rather have the best

778
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: red zone defense in the league when you're fading Patrick Mahomes.

779
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 2: So yep, all.

780
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: Right, that is going to do it for the six pack.

781
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 1: Let's see who we got. We got some Daniel Jones,

782
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 1: we got some Trevor Lawrence, we got some Russ, Sam Darnold,

783
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 1: Jared Goss and Tyra Huntley. So yeah, we're we're back

784
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: at our back at our roots this one.

785
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 2: It feels good to be back on Daniel Jones, Ross

786
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 2: and maybe some beat hard.

787
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it. I probably got your beat going

788
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: to Sam Donald and Huntley, but I guess you're pretty close.

789
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: But I am waying points with God, so yeah, it's

790
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 1: it's up there. He recap Douck has Giants plus seven

791
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 1: hosting Philly, the Jags plus four at Tennessee, and the

792
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: Broncos plus nine and a half hosting the Chiefs. I

793
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:36,280
Speaker 1: have the Panthers plus four at the Seahawks, the Lions

794
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 1: minus two and a half hosting the Vikings, and the

795
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: Ravens plus two and a half at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

796
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 1: Now let's get into our Week fourteen coaches pep talk.

797
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

798
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: to throw up.

799
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 2: I'm sick.

800
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 1: I want you you guys play. This week's coaches pep

801
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 1: talk comes to it from the nineteen ninety three film Rudy,

802
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 1: and we're dedicating it too. Damn you Hackett, your boys

803
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: stuck in this lifetime. You don't have to prove nothing

804
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: to nobody except yourself, and after what you've gone through,

805
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 1: if you haven't done that by now, it ain't gonna

806
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: never happen.

807
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 2: You gotta go back to him. Last week, he dedicated

808
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 2: to him, you got to cover. Broncos found a way

809
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,760
Speaker 2: to lose an inexplicable fashion when we shock. That happens

810
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: again this week, but we don't care about that here. Nate,

811
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 2: Nate the one they called Nate Hackett Nate. I don't

812
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: know if he I doubt he goes by Nate to

813
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 2: his friends. But old Hack, if you, uh, you can

814
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 2: become friends of this podcast, you want to start covering

815
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 2: down the stretch. Let's let's get to the window here.

816
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: That would be epic. Just the Broncos just continue to lose,

817
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 1: but cover every game. I mean, that's kind of the

818
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 1: game script. You know, it's not out of the question,

819
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,280
Speaker 1: although you know, losing by two scores of the Panthers

820
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: kind of make you nervous.

821
00:41:55,840 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 2: I mean, this team realistically could have nine wins if

822
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 2: they just had some semblance of competent offense. Now injuries

823
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 2: have crushed them too, but man, they've been so close

824
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 2: because the defense has been that good. It's got to

825
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,399
Speaker 2: be so frustrated for that d end for fans. It's

826
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 2: the same script every week.

827
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: So since November twenty twenty, Kansas City favored by more

828
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 1: than a field goal, with Patrick Mahomes starting eight and

829
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: twenty one against the spread twenty eight percent two and

830
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: six this year. So you got a.

831
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 2: Chance, yep?

832
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 1: All right, let's jump in two our favorite totals of

833
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: the weeks. Got the miracle covers on the totals last

834
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: week with the two division games, the Raiders and the Chargers,

835
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 1: even though Keenan Allen made it a crazy catch and

836
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: just some notable offensive plays still didn't go over. And

837
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:52,240
Speaker 1: then yeah, somehow the Giants Commanders just could not score.

838
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 1: I think the Commanders had like this, like this long

839
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 1: drive that went absolutely nowhere and just milked half the

840
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: overtime Quack and Giants mister field goals. Yeah, keep it going.

841
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: Where are you going for this week?

842
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Brown's Bengals under forty seven

843
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 2: and a half late season divisional unders. We talk about

844
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 2: these a lot totals over forty five between division teams

845
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 2: this late in the year, sixty percent over the past

846
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 2: thirty years. But I like this because I show a

847
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:21,240
Speaker 2: little value the number. And Bengals offense has been awesome

848
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 2: Burrow is. I think it's taken another step, and their

849
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 2: offense has taken a step overall forward this year, especially

850
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 2: if you compare their season long numbers from last year

851
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 2: to this. But the Browns have had their number, I mean,

852
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett has always rex havoc on them, and you

853
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 2: know Burrow's zero and four against the Browns. I think

854
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 2: he's failed to clear twenty points in each of the

855
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 2: last three meetings. Granted, Chase didn't play earlier this season,

856
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 2: but I think the Browns defense can compete on the

857
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 2: outside of here. The secondary is playing pretty well. Their

858
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:55,400
Speaker 2: run defense is bad still, and they lost hockey tky

859
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 2: in the middle. I mean, you're down to Dion Jones

860
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 2: and it's bad. And so I think the are going

861
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 2: to come out here and try to run a little

862
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 2: bit more because it looks like mixing is gonna play

863
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 2: and that's when they're like least efficient on offense. But

864
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 2: I think that they'll have some success running it, keep

865
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 2: the clock moving. I think they give it thee.

866
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: Which is pains me to say because he gradually ruined

867
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 1: half of my Super Bowl bets.

868
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: But yep, same Ageah. On the other side, you just

869
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 2: can't assume that Watson is going to look good this

870
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 2: week outter what we saw last week. He looked lost.

871
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 2: I think in the second half they're like, look, we

872
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: don't really trust the passing game they're gonna so I

873
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:33,720
Speaker 2: think they're gonna lean on the running game here. And

874
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 2: one of the most troubling things was that I heard

875
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 2: that from few in the organization that like Watson was

876
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 2: just really confused by the differing looks that Houston was giving.

877
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: It's like the different like Houston was basically just like

878
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 2: their bear cover too. They were just moving some like

879
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 2: they're disguising big basic things the Bengals, and it makes sense,

880
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 2: like he seems live action for the first time like

881
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 2: seven hundred days. That's why there's a preseason. It's like,

882
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 2: so the Bengals do that as well as any team

883
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 2: in the NFL, especially in the second half. They change

884
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 2: up their looks, disguise everything. Mahomes just talked about it again.

885
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 2: It's why you see the Bengals constantly shut out teams

886
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 2: in the second half. So you know it's going to

887
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 2: take us some time, I said, I said all year,

888
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 2: it's taking a couple of weeks. And after what I

889
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 2: saw last week, you can't assume that it's going to

890
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: be any better this week. It could be a little better,

891
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 2: but you can't expect the old Deshaun Watson. And so

892
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 2: I think that the Browns are gonna lean on the

893
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 2: run game here. Big game for the Browns. I guess

894
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 2: they could get back in back, get back in here.

895
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 2: Bengals want to get their revenge, but I think it's

896
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 2: going to be a more run, heavier game here, and

897
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 2: I think there's some value in this under.

898
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a pretty high total for a division game.

899
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 1: Just it's a high total for two thousand and twenty

900
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: two period. I mean, we talked about it. The average

901
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: score is under forty four. I don't hate it. I'll

902
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 1: have something on this game in a bit, so I

903
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: jump in to my total going with So it was

904
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 1: between Casey Denver full disclosure and this Buffalo Jets game.

905
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Buffalo Jets under forty three and a half.

906
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: I'll see if you can get a forty four. That

907
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 1: is the key number. But you know, I just think

908
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: both of these I just have a lot of respect

909
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 1: for both of these defenses, and I think you have

910
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 1: a few different ways that you could stay under this total.

911
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: Whether it's you know, Buffalo kind of ends the Mike

912
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 1: White hype and just wins like thirty to three or

913
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 1: something like that, or you get another close game where

914
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 1: Allen struggles against what's probably the most well rounded defense

915
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: he's gonna face all year. But these are both top

916
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: six defenses by Dvoa. Buffalo is fourth. They are seventh

917
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 1: against the past, third against the rush, and then the

918
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: Jets are sixth on defense. They're fifth against the pass

919
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: and eleventh against the rush. Both of these teams also

920
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 1: top ten in pressure. So always like that. You know,

921
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,799
Speaker 1: even if you do have a good quarterback and Allen

922
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 1: on the other side, the only way you're gonna put

923
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: a dent in his numbers is by getting pressure and

924
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 1: getting it without having to blitz. And the Jets specialize

925
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:12,799
Speaker 1: in that they are fift in pressure rate, just under

926
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 1: twenty five percent, and they blitzed at the second lowest

927
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 1: rate in the league. And then Buffalo is up to

928
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: tenth in pressure rate even without von Miller because they

929
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: are getting healthier on defense. You know, even though Miller's

930
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 1: out for the year, you got a lot of guys

931
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: that miss games that are that are coming back, and

932
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 1: even on the back end, you know they're able to

933
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 1: hold up longer in coverage, which helps you.

934
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 2: De Trey, why should be getting up to a full

935
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 2: work Yep, it was.

936
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 1: Just gonna get just gonna get to White. So you know,

937
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 1: we kind of under the radar, played sixteen snaps, a

938
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago in that Thanksgiving game and then

939
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: against the Patriots he jumped to thirty three snaps, so

940
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 1: he should be fully up to speed. Now you had

941
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 1: the ten day break and all. And that's big because

942
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson is a budding superstar. I mean, this guy

943
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 1: he had what a buck sixty two US we can

944
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 1: should have had two fifty in a touch. So anytime

945
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,799
Speaker 1: you can get cornerback help this time of year, to

946
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 1: face a guy like that, you know that's going to

947
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 1: be really important for their defense. Both of these defenses,

948
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: you know, outdoors in a game where you could see

949
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 1: some weather conditions here, looks like you're gonna see some participitation.

950
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: Looks like you're gonna get wins up into the double

951
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 1: digits as well. And you know that Jets pass defense.

952
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:27,760
Speaker 1: Buffalo has faced four other top twelve pass defenses England,

953
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: the Jets, one other time, the Packers, and the Ravens,

954
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 1: and they average just twenty three and a half points

955
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 1: per game against those top twelve pass defenses. Against everyone else,

956
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 1: just under thirty points a game. So that's obviously how

957
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: you slow down Buffalo. But something else I like about

958
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 1: what Buffalo is doing here that could help this under

959
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: and it could have been a product of the injury,

960
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 1: the elbow injury, but I think it's just also a

961
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 1: product of the recklessness. They're running more and it's been subtle,

962
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 1: but these last four games averaging twenty seven point eight

963
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: design runs per game, and they're running about for they're

964
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 1: calling design runs about forty percent of the time, about

965
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 1: eight more runs per game. That's always going to kind

966
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 1: of help bleed some clock here. You don't want to

967
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 1: get into third and long against this this jet, even

968
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:18,320
Speaker 1: if you're Josh Allen, you still want to get in

969
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: third and long against this pressure d And then you

970
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 1: know both of these teams also top ten and fewest

971
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:27,720
Speaker 1: twenty plus yard passes allowed. And I think Mike White,

972
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: I think he's going to struggle in this game. You know,

973
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:34,720
Speaker 1: he faced the Bears defense, which is dead last in DVOA.

974
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 1: Minnesota's twentieth talked about them, and White faced this Bills

975
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 1: defense last year and that's where it really kind of

976
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:44,919
Speaker 1: all fell apart. Now, he averaged five point seven yards

977
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,439
Speaker 1: in attempt on forty four attempts, ended up getting bench

978
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 1: for flack aweight, no touchdowns, four picks. That was a

979
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,720
Speaker 1: high scoring game, but that's because the Jets really didn't

980
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: have a defense at that point. So I think, you know,

981
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:58,399
Speaker 1: being that he.

982
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 2: Turned the ball defense in the NFL last year and

983
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: the best.

984
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 1: I think the Jets are going to play at conservative here.

985
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,399
Speaker 1: They're talking up Bam Knight. Maybe they get carter back,

986
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 1: but either way, you know they're going to work in

987
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 1: two three running backs. I think they're going to kind

988
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,400
Speaker 1: of run the ball here. But you look at this

989
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 1: Bills defense. I mentioned their metrics, their top four on

990
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: defense to Davis, White missed ten games, Foyer missed three games,

991
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 1: Tremaine Edmunds missed three games, Gregory Rousseau missed three games,

992
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 1: and all of our missed three games. Mulano missed the game.

993
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: Some of the quarterbacks I'm not even mentioning miss because

994
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:32,439
Speaker 1: I mean, they've had so many guys out to still

995
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: be a top five defense. So you know, eight of

996
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,280
Speaker 1: these Jets, eight or twelve Jets games have gone under

997
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 1: forty four and last week against Minnesota was one of

998
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 1: the ones that did it. But that was like Minnesota

999
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: shouldn't have scored as many points as they did. The

1000
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 1: Jets allowed just two hundred and eighty seven yards of

1001
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 1: total offense on sixty four plays to Minnesota was just

1002
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 1: four point three yards per play. And look at Buffalo

1003
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 1: defense what they did in New England two hundred and

1004
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 1: forty two yards on fifty one plays four point seven

1005
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 1: yards of play. So both of these defenses and tip

1006
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 1: top shape. Maybe Buffalo blows them out, but I think

1007
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 1: then it's like one of those like thirty five to ten,

1008
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 1: thirty five to six type situations or thirty one to

1009
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: six whatever. But outdoor divisional unders sixty two thirty eight

1010
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:18,439
Speaker 1: and one sixty two percent since it started last year,

1011
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 1: twenty six eleven and one seventy percent this season, and

1012
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 1: again there should be some weather in this one as well.

1013
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 1: So give me the Jets, Bills under forty three and

1014
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: a half.

1015
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 2: A pair of divisional outdoor unders for US.

1016
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Thereecap Browns Bengals under forty seven and a

1017
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 1: half and Bill's Jets under forty three and a half.

1018
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 1: Now it's time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1019
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers. Don't don't change, don't tease me,

1020
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:59,840
Speaker 1: try to please? Where are you going? Four? Week fourteen?

1021
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I dearly want to tease through three and seven

1022
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 2: of them with both sides. I'm not gonna do that

1023
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,280
Speaker 2: here exactly what I'm gonna do that with the Ravens.

1024
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 2: So teasing the Ravens up from two and a half

1025
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 2: to eight and a half game with a low total,

1026
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,319
Speaker 2: where it's even more valuable to tease. And then I'm

1027
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: gonna also tease the Bucks up they're at three three

1028
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 2: and a half, almost as valuable. That's the next best

1029
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 2: thing you do, teasing a dog up from three to

1030
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 2: three and a half up and the total thirty seven

1031
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,760
Speaker 2: point should had a premium this game. It's brought prety

1032
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:33,359
Speaker 2: second game. You know, he looked pretty good coming in

1033
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:35,320
Speaker 2: in relief with Jimmy g but he's obviously a seventh

1034
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 2: round rookie. It's a big down grade. This should be

1035
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 2: a low scoring game. And then one of the other

1036
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:42,799
Speaker 2: things I like is like, you know, you have a

1037
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame quarterback with these teasers, like if the

1038
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 2: Bucks are down fourteen, like and then the Niners played

1039
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:51,680
Speaker 2: pre event like Brady's most likely going to go down

1040
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 2: and score the touchdown to cut it to seven. By

1041
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 2: the way, the butts on the Bucks offense works. And yeah,

1042
00:52:56,080 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 2: there's two minutes three, so you know, that's one of

1043
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 2: the things I actually do look for, and it just

1044
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: puts merot tops. Sometimes it's like, all right, if they're

1045
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,120
Speaker 2: not fourteen late and need a touchdown, Brady'll go down

1046
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 2: and get it against Prevent. But I think overall this

1047
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 2: game will just be low scoring in a dog fight.

1048
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, Boss Ravens.

1049
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm only the exact same one. Ravens up to

1050
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 1: eight and a half, Bucks up to nine and a

1051
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 1: half because there's another two and a half with the

1052
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: Vikings Lions game. But actually like the Lions in that one,

1053
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 1: so not and.

1054
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 2: Then totals high, totals high, total high.

1055
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's in essence, you're you're essentially getting you know,

1056
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:36,800
Speaker 1: two dogs over one score in games with a total

1057
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 1: of thirty seven each in the Ravens Steelers and Bucks Niners.

1058
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 1: So I think that's the way to play it this week.

1059
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 1: There aren't you know, I don't fully trust the Bengals

1060
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 1: to win, don't trust to eat, fully trust the Eagles

1061
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: to win. You know, these divisional games, you know, sometimes

1062
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,800
Speaker 1: it can be tempting to tease it down from seven

1063
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 1: to one or six to a pick, but you know

1064
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 1: there's a reason those numbers are where they are, so

1065
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 1: I don't trust those. So yeah, not many options, but yeah,

1066
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: both of us going Baltimore up to eight and a half,

1067
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 1: bucks up to nine and a half. Let's get into

1068
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 1: our money line underdog parlay.

1069
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1070
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1071
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 1: All right? So, yeah, we did not hit last week

1072
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: with Houston. I had the Falcons. I think got Houston.

1073
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 2: I'll gave up twenty eight the most sports the NFL

1074
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:36,840
Speaker 2: history without allowing an offensive touchdown to twos defense touchdowns

1075
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 2: and a special teams touchdown. But come on, I was like,

1076
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,919
Speaker 2: there's uncertainty with Deshaun Watson. You might look really bad.

1077
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 2: And the Texans are so bad that they're like, I

1078
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 2: don't care how bad the Shaun Watson looks. We're gonna

1079
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 2: give the Browns three non offensive touchdowns.

1080
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: Ridiculous, Absolutely ridiculous. Where are you going this week?

1081
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,760
Speaker 2: All right, let's go out to Houston. I'm just kidding.

1082
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 2: Let's go with the I'm gonna go with the Chargers

1083
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 2: at home against the Dolphins. Dolphins stand out on the

1084
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 2: West Coast for their second straight game. I actually see

1085
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 2: some parallels to last week with the forty nine Ers

1086
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 2: on the charters. Don't have as good a defense, but

1087
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: they have a much better quarterback and you can attack

1088
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 2: this Dolphins team with backs and short passes. That was

1089
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 2: one of the things I was telling you I was

1090
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 2: worried about with the Dolphins defense against the forty nine

1091
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:26,359
Speaker 2: ers and party game in it, Dad, he went twenty

1092
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 2: five to thirty seven, moved the ball. Herbert could do

1093
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 2: that here, And it looks like Corey Lindsley's gonna play.

1094
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 2: That's massive. He is just he's probably the second most

1095
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 2: important player on that offense. When he's not in there,

1096
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 2: the offensive line completely falls apart. Zion Johnson's also day

1097
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 2: to Dad, I think he's gonna go. We'll see if

1098
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 2: Trey Pipkins goes. Not as important as Lindsay and Lindsley

1099
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 2: and Johnson in the middle. Mike Williams might even go.

1100
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 2: And the Chargers pass defense is much better than the

1101
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:57,800
Speaker 2: run defense, which is important against Miami. And it's just

1102
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:00,320
Speaker 2: justin Herbert as a dog that catching up three and

1103
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 2: a half. I see value in the number. It's down

1104
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 2: to three. I took some three and a half little

1105
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 2: juice during the week. If it gets back to three

1106
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 2: and a half, I would take it. I'm still taking

1107
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 2: a three. Just would have been one of my picks

1108
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 2: at three and a half in the Sunday six pack.

1109
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 2: But I like them money line too. Charters defense in

1110
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 2: the red zone has been much better than Miami's in

1111
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:20,879
Speaker 2: the red zone, and like I just haven't fully bought in.

1112
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 2: Some people have to the tow a train. His numbers

1113
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:26,800
Speaker 2: are so great, but like we went over last week,

1114
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 2: he you know, four straight games against four of the

1115
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:33,240
Speaker 2: worst defenses in the NFL, and a lot of it's skiing,

1116
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 2: Like a lot of it you got to give credit to.

1117
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 2: They also have two ridiculous wide receivers. The Charters have

1118
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: some dudes on the back end. I'm sure miam will

1119
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:41,799
Speaker 2: be able to run it. They'll be able to have

1120
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 2: hit some explosive place. I think this will be a

1121
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:45,840
Speaker 2: little high scoring game. I don't hate the over, but

1122
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 2: Herbert desperation mode should have a healthier offensive line here.

1123
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,959
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen's back. I think two a little better this week.

1124
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 2: But I think everyone wants to be like he either

1125
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 2: sucks or he's a Hall of Famer, and it's okay

1126
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 2: to be in the middle for now and we'll see that.

1127
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 2: That's kind of where I'm at. But we'll see what

1128
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 2: he can do this week, and then we'll learn a

1129
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,319
Speaker 2: lot about him in the postseason. Doesn't everyone Everyone doesn't

1130
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 2: have to either be a bust or a Hall of Famer, right,

1131
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:08,280
Speaker 2: especially like this early.

1132
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 1: Do you have any idea because I'm pretty sure Sharps

1133
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 1: hammered the Dolphins on this one, hammering a favorite like

1134
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 1: minus three on the road. It just seemed odd to

1135
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 1: be a idea why people seem to love the Dolphins

1136
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 1: so much.

1137
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 2: You know, some of the metrics for the Chargers look

1138
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 2: really bad, and some people have them rated way lower

1139
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 2: than I do. I mean, this is still a team

1140
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 2: to cover their plus three and a half of Kansas

1141
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 2: City plus five and a half at home against Kansas City.

1142
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 2: Recently covered both of those games. But there are groups

1143
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 2: out there that are just really high on Miami and

1144
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 2: expect them to bounce back here.

1145
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 1: But I don't know.

1146
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 2: The laft last week against the forty nine ers, Dolphins didn't.

1147
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 2: The forty nine Ers ended up taking money, so yeah,

1148
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 2: and then two of it looks awful, So yeah, I

1149
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 2: was confused as well. I would be shocked. If this

1150
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 2: doesn't close the three.

1151
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 1: Maybe well, you know, sometimes these things kind of switch around,

1152
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: you know, if.

1153
00:57:57,440 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 2: Setting up setting up for later.

1154
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's something to monitor. I will go I'm gonna

1155
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:06,120
Speaker 1: go with Cleveland here at plus two oh five for

1156
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 1: my and it's kind of simple Joe, like you mentioned,

1157
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow oh and four against the Browns and oh

1158
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 1: and four against the Browns who have never had a

1159
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 1: quarterback as talented this now. Obviously he looked horrible last week,

1160
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: but that's kind of why we're taking a money line

1161
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 1: dog here. I mean, the Bengals are what seventeen and

1162
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 1: three against the spread in their last twenty you know,

1163
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 1: it's no point betting against them on the spread at

1164
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:31,680
Speaker 1: this point, you know, because I looked at that plus six,

1165
00:58:31,680 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 1: I think probably a little bit high. But really, if

1166
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 1: you're gonna you're gonna go in with the Browns, just

1167
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 1: just go money line here.

1168
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 2: There's just so there's such a wide range of Okay,

1169
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 2: how much better will Watson luck this week? And that's

1170
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 2: increased variance, which is what we want with our with

1171
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 2: our our money on our dogs.

1172
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:51,919
Speaker 1: It could be a let down spot, you know, coming

1173
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 1: off that win against the Chiefs. That's always when you

1174
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: know Cincinnati gets up for so yeah, well too big.

1175
00:58:57,600 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 2: They've had two big games in a row, like they

1176
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 2: went at Tennessee. They had to win that game, and

1177
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 2: you know that was a hard wont game. And then

1178
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 2: Kansas City right down with a wire. Say they could

1179
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: come out a little flat. I could see that.

1180
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: If you part way charges plus one forty four with

1181
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 1: Browns plus two oh five, it's about a six and

1182
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:18,360
Speaker 1: a half x payout. One hundred gets you back seven

1183
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: forty four. And now it's time for the best of

1184
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 1: the rest. Games we haven't covered in any other segment,

1185
00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 1: but are still, as they say, meaningful to some. That's

1186
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 1: gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to

1187
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 1: some of you. You know what I mean. We just

1188
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:42,520
Speaker 1: got one. It's the Houston Texans at the Dallas Cowboys.

1189
00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:47,720
Speaker 1: Cowboys favored by sixteen and a half. The total is

1190
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 1: forty six. Anything on this one.

1191
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 2: Is just really meaningful to some Is it really meaningful

1192
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 2: to anybody? No? I mean I I money line Dallas,

1193
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:01,400
Speaker 2: I said earlier with the law Ians. I make this

1194
01:00:01,560 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 2: like around fifteen. I probably should make it higher. Probably

1195
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 2: just haven't done. I just can't downgrade the Texans enough

1196
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 2: each week. There's a lot of trends that would support

1197
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:12,320
Speaker 2: backing the Texans here, I could, I could find like

1198
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,680
Speaker 2: a million, but I'm not betting them, not betting this

1199
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 2: game nothing.

1200
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:19,120
Speaker 1: Dak were sub five hundred teams twenty four to nine

1201
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 1: and two against the spread seventy three percent. So uh,

1202
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:26,479
Speaker 1: it's actually trend supporting the Cowboys too. Yeah. I looked

1203
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 1: at the under for a second here. You know, these

1204
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 1: Texan games tend to go under because they just simply

1205
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 1: don't score. But these Cowboy games, I mean they you know,

1206
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:36,920
Speaker 1: they could come out flat for a half and just

1207
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:39,640
Speaker 1: all they need is a quarter. They stared thirty three.

1208
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 2: I guess the Colts to the fourth. Last week.

1209
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 1: It was like every time I would look, I would

1210
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 1: like look down for one second to like look at

1211
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: my phone, look up, and there was a Cowboy streaking

1212
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 1: into the end zone and like a backup too. It

1213
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 1: was like, well week, Davis and they was just insane.

1214
01:00:52,600 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 1: I got a couple. Yeah, so this game is awful. No, yeah,

1215
01:00:56,440 --> 01:00:59,440
Speaker 1: Davis Mills is back, by the way, starting Kyle Awen experiment.

1216
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 2: That's why I down I mean, he should be starting

1217
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:02,640
Speaker 2: it's he's a better option.

1218
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 1: He hasn't turned it over as much. He's just they'll

1219
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 1: need to just get back to giving it to Pierce

1220
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:11,200
Speaker 1: like twenty three times and hopefully yep, all right, that

1221
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 1: is going to do it. For the Week fourteen Action

1222
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:21,440
Speaker 1: Network Podcast presented by Fandel. For more of our betting content,

1223
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 1: be sure to check out Action network dot com or

1224
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: download the free, award winning Action Network app where you

1225
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 1: can follow our bets or track yours for free. Stuck

1226
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 1: He's in the app at Stucky too. I am at

1227
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:35,840
Speaker 1: Chris Raybon. You can find us at those same handles

1228
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 1: on Twitter as well. Until next time, let's get this money,

1229
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 1: cor