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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing

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Speaker 3: show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, pristalded?

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Speaker 4: We do. Many things unfolding in this town.

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Speaker 2: As per usual, the showdown over USAID continues, as Elon

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Speaker 2: Musk's hostile takeover of the government also continues. Canada and

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Speaker 2: Mexico tariffs are off, at least temporarily. China tariff's still on.

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Speaker 2: Saga and I are going to talk about it. Matt

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Speaker 2: Stiller is also going to join to weigh in on

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Speaker 2: this particular tariff regime. As floated. And he is also

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Speaker 2: going to talk to us about some of the movement

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Speaker 2: at Nationally Relations Board, which has effectively been gutted at

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Speaker 2: this point, the Securities Exchange Commission, the CFPB, that's like

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Speaker 2: the anti scam agency which also enforcement actions seem to

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Speaker 2: be have been gutted there as well, So he'll weigh

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Speaker 2: in on all of that. The DOJ out with the

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Speaker 2: new DEI program, this one to combat anti Semitism, taking

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Speaker 2: some shots from both left and right, not too happy

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Speaker 2: about this particular direction. And Anthony Lowenstein is going to

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Speaker 2: join us to talk about his new documentary about the

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Speaker 2: way that weapons systems have been tested in Gaza and

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Speaker 2: Palestine in general, but specifically in Gaza post October seventh.

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Speaker 2: And he's also going to weigh in on the latest

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Speaker 2: developments with regards to BB's visit to the US, which

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Speaker 2: is today. He's also already announced he's going to extend

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Speaker 2: his visits. That's right, he's extending down for a little

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Speaker 2: extra time.

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Speaker 3: There are a lot of open secrets right in terms

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Speaker 3: of admitting like where your bread is buttered, in terms

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Speaker 3: of what really all matters. There was an interesting meeting

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Speaker 3: yesterday with Steve Whitdcoff and with Mike Walston Blair else.

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Speaker 3: I am tapping my sources to find out about the

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Speaker 3: laundry crystal. That's all I can think about. I gotta

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Speaker 3: know whether it's true or what. Maybe he's been shamed

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Speaker 3: into stopping it. But all right, let's get to usaid.

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Speaker 2: So Elon Musk's takeover the government continues. Trump yesterday in

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Speaker 2: the Oval Office was asked a little bit about his

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Speaker 2: thoughts on how all of this is going.

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Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.

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Speaker 5: They're finding tremendous waste, really waste, more than anything else.

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Speaker 6: I think you could.

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Speaker 5: Say probably fraud and abuse can be added to it,

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Speaker 5: the more standard waste, fraud and abuse. But they're finding

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Speaker 5: tremendous amounts of really bad things, bad spending. Elon can't

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Speaker 5: do and won't do anything without our approval. And we'll

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Speaker 5: give him the approval. We're appropriate, we're not appropriate, we won't.

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Speaker 5: But he reports in and he it's something that he

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Speaker 5: feels very strongly about it, and I'm impressed because he's

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Speaker 5: running out a big company, has nothing to do. If

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Speaker 5: there's a conflict that we won't let him get near it.

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Speaker 5: But he does have a good natural instinct. He's got

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Speaker 5: a team of very talented people.

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Speaker 7: The first from the USA. He was something that you

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Speaker 7: liked in some respect.

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Speaker 6: I love the concept of yeah that's the program.

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Speaker 5: Sure, I love the concept. But they turned out to

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Speaker 5: be radical left lunatics and the concept of it is good,

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Speaker 5: But it's all about the people's an act.

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Speaker 8: Of Congress to do away with USAID or if you

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Speaker 8: believe you, I.

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Speaker 6: Don't know, I don't think so.

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Speaker 5: If not when it comes to fraud, If there's fraud,

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Speaker 5: these people are lunatics, and if it comes to fraud,

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Speaker 5: you wouldn't have an Act of Congress. And I'm not

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Speaker 5: sure that you would anyway. But we just want to

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Speaker 5: do the right thing that it's something that should have

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Speaker 5: been done a long time ago.

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Speaker 2: So weighing in there specifically on Elon's conflicts of interest

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Speaker 2: and also on the USAID push to effectively dismantle that organization,

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Speaker 2: bring it under the State Department. More on that in

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Speaker 2: just a moment, Democrats or start to try to make

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Speaker 2: a stand with regard to USAID in particular.

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Speaker 4: You know, the conflict of interest.

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Speaker 2: Piece is also quite important. Elon obviously has massive conflicts

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Speaker 2: of interest across the entire federal garment.

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Speaker 4: Just as one example.

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Speaker 2: You know, we documented yesterday how he and his cronies

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Speaker 2: gained access to the Treasury payment system. I mean, Elon

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Speaker 2: wants to turn Twitter into a payment processor. Not to

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Speaker 2: mention that for any tech overlord, having access to all

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Speaker 2: of our data kind of an important and valuable commodity.

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Speaker 2: I also was just reading that apparently he was influential

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Speaker 2: in the pick that Trump made for the head of

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Speaker 2: the Air Force, and it's a guy who lo and

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Speaker 2: Behold was very influential in getting SpaceX contracts for Elon.

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Speaker 2: So he is, officially, we now know Soccer, a special

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Speaker 2: government employee. I think Caroline Lovett said that yesterday. There's

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Speaker 2: actually criminal statute, criminal statute that governs the way you

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Speaker 2: have to operate and the way you have to avoid

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Speaker 2: any potential conflicts of interest when you are in that

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Speaker 2: you know, special government employee capacity.

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Speaker 4: This is usually people.

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Speaker 2: Brought in on sort of like a temporary basis as

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Speaker 2: specific experts in a field. That is the designation that

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Speaker 2: Elon has. So, I mean, it's just it's wild what's

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Speaker 2: going on.

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Speaker 3: That status is the same one that was used by

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Speaker 3: Ivanka and by Jared, because they also didn't draw salaries

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Speaker 3: last time they were in the White House. But as

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Speaker 3: you said, it's actually legally important. I think you sent

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Speaker 3: this Richard Painter, who's a government ethics experts as a

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Speaker 3: special Government employees still have to abide by.

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Speaker 1: Conflict of interest laws.

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Speaker 3: And I actually what I took away the most from

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Speaker 3: the Trump comments is I think you could see some

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Speaker 3: of the dangers here that are ahead with the elon

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Speaker 3: because he's like, well, we'll give him permission whenever we

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Speaker 3: need to, anything he doesn't need to will take it

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Speaker 3: away from him. They are saying that it's quote read

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Speaker 3: only access to the treasury payments, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But no, you're absolutely right about that data I get.

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Speaker 3: I mean this kind of brings us back to our

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Speaker 3: big debate yesterday though, And look, I hate to give

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Speaker 3: credit where it is, but mounting a fight about USAID

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Speaker 3: is politically genius in a few ways.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 3: For example, where we have members of Congress attempting to

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Speaker 3: enter USAID is some speech, so they give us some speeches.

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Speaker 1: Around this as well.

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Speaker 3: The thing that I'm kind of like thinking about with

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Speaker 3: all of this, and it gets to what we were

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Speaker 3: talking about yesterday is at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: not only were we talking about an agency with point

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Speaker 3: seven percent of the federal budget which is now getting

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Speaker 3: rolled into the State Department, but mounting a fight on USAID,

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Speaker 3: which again some of the least popular elements of the

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Speaker 3: federal government, which is foreign aid to other nations, just

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Speaker 3: doesn't seem like the ground for the Democrats where I

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Speaker 3: would want to be. And we're going to play some

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Speaker 3: of the quiet part out loud things about what USAID is.

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Speaker 3: I thought, you know, the strongest ground that the Democrats

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Speaker 3: are opposition to Trump have had so far as on tariffs,

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Speaker 3: on medicare, meals, on wheels.

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Speaker 1: Obviously they abandon all three of those. Unfortunately in the

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Speaker 1: tariff case. We can talk about that in.

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Speaker 3: A bit, but the ground of fighting for USAID just

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Speaker 3: doesn't seem like one of those political To do it,

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Speaker 3: you have to be reading the news and really involved.

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Speaker 3: Me Like, okay, so Elon has gained access and they've

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Speaker 3: rolled it onto the statee Department. It's like, well, you

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Speaker 3: kind of already lost it. And then people are like, well,

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Speaker 3: how does it affect my life? It's like, well, some

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Speaker 3: Malawian healthcare program may get cut and people are like, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: why were we even paying for that in the first place.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just not sure this is the right move

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Speaker 3: for the Democrats on this one. The medicare won the

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Speaker 3: meals on wheels absolutely, but I mean, I think it's

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Speaker 3: te very telling right that immediately the Trump administration bucked

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Speaker 3: on that where picking a fight on USAID, one of

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Speaker 3: the smallest agencies. The only agency smaller than the USAID

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Speaker 3: is in USTR, the US Trade representative zero point seven

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Speaker 3: percent of the federal budget. Overwhelmingly, if you were a

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Speaker 3: pull this stuff super unpopular, maybe pepfar, you know, is

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Speaker 3: the only one where people are like, Okay, the rest

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Speaker 3: of it, I mean, we'll talk about the you know,

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Speaker 3: money laundering and the CIA ops and all the other

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Speaker 3: malfeasance and fraud that's run through the USA I D

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Speaker 3: over the years.

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Speaker 1: I just I don't think this is it.

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Speaker 3: Like I feel like the Dems are searching for something

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Speaker 3: and this is where they're like, we're mounting our stand

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Speaker 3: here for USAID. I mean, you know, like, are we

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Speaker 3: really weeping tears for four and eight pro wellams?

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Speaker 4: I'm not.

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Speaker 2: I think you make some good points there, but I

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Speaker 2: think that that is intentionally why they went after USAID first.

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Speaker 3: No, I agree, that's why I'm saying I have to

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Speaker 3: give them credit for being small like.

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Speaker 2: They I mean, first, I think there may be also

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Speaker 2: a personal element here because USAID was also involved in,

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Speaker 2: you know, pushing for the end of apartheid, so there

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Speaker 2: may be some personal South African hurt feelings there.

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Speaker 4: Not a joke, is it true?

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Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, that's true. Okay, well blame Reagan, right, But.

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Speaker 2: In any case, yeah, they see it as a sort

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Speaker 2: of trial balloon because if you can get away with

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Speaker 2: dismantling usai D, which is you know, was aw the

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Speaker 2: rise by an Act of Congress, which you know, it's

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Speaker 2: authority comes from specific laws that were passed that give

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Speaker 2: it statutory authority as its own independent agency. If you

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Speaker 2: can get away with that, then you can get away

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Speaker 2: with anything. And we already know that, you know, Elon

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Speaker 2: and Trump have both projected Department of Education is next,

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Speaker 2: and you know that'll be a more difficult fight because

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Speaker 2: people like their kids being educated, and there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of funding that goes for you know, for poor kids

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Speaker 2: and for kids with special needs and for school lunches

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Speaker 2: and things like that that come from the federal government.

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Speaker 2: But if you've already been able to dismantle one agency

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Speaker 2: without a fight, then guess what you are going to

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Speaker 2: be able to do everything you want to do. And so,

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Speaker 2: you know, we'll get to the rest of the elements

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Speaker 2: here in just a second. But I do think it's

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Speaker 2: useful to kind of zoom out and ask yourself what

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Speaker 2: is Elon's project here? And we've talked about this before.

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Speaker 2: Elon's ideology is not the as what Trump ran on

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Speaker 2: in you know, twenty sixteen at his sort of populist peak.

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Speaker 2: Elon is a fan of Hobber Malay. Elon is an

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Speaker 2: anarcho capitalist. Elon is a fan of Curtis Jarvin, who

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Speaker 2: thinks that we should have literal techno feudalism. I know

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Speaker 2: this sounds crazy, but Elon is a dramatic He is

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Speaker 2: an hardened ideological actor. So what does it mean if

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Speaker 2: you're an an arco capitalist if you believe in this

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Speaker 2: like techno feudalist project. I mean, he thinks he should

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Speaker 2: basically run as a CEO the you know, the country,

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Speaker 2: the government, the world. Really I think that is his

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Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy, but that is his project.

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Speaker 2: And you can listen to the way he talks about

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Speaker 2: these things. I mean, his grand plans to like, you know,

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Speaker 2: have a civilization on Mars and all of these sorts

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Speaker 2: of things. So if that's your ideology and that's your goal,

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Speaker 2: what you want to do is completely take apart the

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Speaker 2: federal government. And you hear this not just an Elon's rhetic,

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Speaker 2: but you also hear echoed now in Trump's rhetoric, who

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Speaker 2: talks about how his goal is for all federal government

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Speaker 2: and plployees to be private sector employees. That's anarcho capitalism.

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Speaker 2: That means even the parts of the state that you like,

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Speaker 2: the pieces that deliver for Grandma and Social Security, Medicare Medica,

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Speaker 2: all of that he wants to take an axe too.

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Speaker 2: Elon has told friends that his entire metric is just

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Speaker 2: how much I can cut now, not how much of

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Speaker 2: the you know, the fad and the fraud and the

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Speaker 2: abuse and the parts that everybody would be like, okay, fine, yes,

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Speaker 2: cut that piece. He measures his success by just how

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Speaker 2: much of the federal government can he take an acts too? Now,

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Speaker 2: do I think that he is going to be able

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Speaker 2: to realize his anarcho capitalist no state whatsoever dream No.

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Speaker 2: I think at some point the state is going to

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Speaker 2: reassert themselves. You know, Trump still has control of the military,

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Speaker 2: for example, At any point he could get sick of

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Speaker 2: Elon and say all right, we're done, you're out, go by.

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Speaker 2: But do I think a lot of damage could be

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Speaker 2: done in the meantime, Yes, absolutely. And I also and

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Speaker 2: this is where you know, I want to come back

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Speaker 2: a little bit to what we were saying yesterday and

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Speaker 2: perhaps make a more persuasive argument about what I mean

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Speaker 2: when I say people didn't vote for this, I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying they didn't vote for like, you know, cutting some waste, fraud, abuse,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. But the trumpest ideology, which is

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Speaker 2: really like the Steve Bannon like that's the og maga

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Speaker 2: ideology that was what was sold to people.

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Speaker 4: And this is not that, right.

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Speaker 2: This is not the political project that you're This is

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Speaker 2: not populous, right, this is the political project you've been

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Speaker 2: engaged in. This is something else entirely. Trump seems to

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Speaker 2: have bought into it, and seems to have given Inlan

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Speaker 2: for now the keys to the kingdom to do whatever

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Speaker 2: he wants up to and including dismantling entire federal government agencies,

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Speaker 2: accessing whatever classified information he wants to, accessing your Social

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Speaker 2: Security numbers and private data, accessing the system the Treasury

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Speaker 2: payment system, which controls all of the money that goes

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Speaker 2: out from the federal government. So if you imagine, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, it's like if Fort Knox actually held all

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Speaker 2: of the like taxpayer dollars in gold and whatever.

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Speaker 4: The richest man on the planet.

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Speaker 2: Who has incredible conflicts of interest and a really radical

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Speaker 2: ideology now has keys to that, you know, theoretical Fort Knox.

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Speaker 4: That's where we are right now.

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Speaker 2: And that's why I find it so deeply, deeply disturbing.

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Speaker 2: And why even though this is you're right about usaid

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Speaker 2: not being the best ground for Democrats to fight on,

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Speaker 2: why I think they feel like, all right, well, we

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Speaker 2: got to do something.

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Speaker 3: I get where they're coming from. Yeah, but this is

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Speaker 3: part of the problem, and this is where honesty is important.

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Speaker 3: Not even Steve Bannon would tell you that he's in

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Speaker 3: control of the federal government. Right the Bannon Is twenty

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Speaker 3: sixteen vision was almost immediately clarified.

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Speaker 2: Not even Steve Bannon would say that, who's his ideology?

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Speaker 1: Twenty sixteen vision, right, I mean, what's that you want

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Speaker 1: to see? Unknown?

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Part of the problem for a lot of the people

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Speaker 3: who share my beliefs is, let's look at the track

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Speaker 3: record Trump in twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one governs effectively,

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Speaker 3: is like what cultural right warrior with George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush flavor?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, he comes forty thousand votes away from winning

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Speaker 3: the presidency. Then over the interm four years assembles a

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Speaker 3: coalition effectively of people who hate Biden, and within that

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Speaker 3: there's not a lot being sold there except for no

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Speaker 3: more illegal immigration. The rest of it is really up

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Speaker 3: for grabs. And so part of the new coalition quote

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Speaker 3: unquote of the people who signed up for Trump, I

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Speaker 3: do think it does include some do Now. Look, I

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Speaker 3: hope that some of it is for the stuff that

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Speaker 3: I've said here, but I have to be honest. I mean,

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Speaker 3: tariffs are overwhelmingly unpopular. We're going to talk about that.

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Speaker 3: People like cheap shit.

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Speaker 1: They don't care if their TikTok comes from China or whatever.

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Speaker 1: They want to eat.

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Speaker 3: They want to live like a pretty basic life, and

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Speaker 3: they don't really want to think much about bigger things. Now,

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Speaker 3: I think it's incumbent on the FEDS and on leaders

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Speaker 3: like Trump and JAD to make their case as to

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Speaker 3: why they're important. But you know, it's tough in a

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Speaker 3: country like this where debt and all that is very,

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Speaker 3: very high, where I do think they eat, you know,

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Speaker 3: the doze of the USAID, the Department of Education. There

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Speaker 3: is a feeling within the intellectual and I think within

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Speaker 3: the suburban right of things have gotten out of control now.

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Speaker 3: I think with the USADA, it's actually literally not disputable

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Speaker 3: that the agency has been involved in insane fraud CIA,

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Speaker 3: who's basically a front for state Department for soft power,

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Speaker 3: you know, and all that if you want to call

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Speaker 3: it funneling money is money laundering to NGOs. But even

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Speaker 3: you know, you're talking about the Department of Education, So

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Speaker 3: you're not wrong. People support Headstart, people support you know,

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Speaker 3: federal dollars.

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Speaker 1: Coming into schools.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think the majority of schools are funded

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Speaker 3: by the FEDS. I think it's like twenty something percent, right,

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Speaker 3: it's about ten. Depends on the individual school distracts.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and poor school districts rely more on federal funding,

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Speaker 2: so they would be the ones that would be more

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Speaker 2: impacted overall, it's about ten percent of funding that comes

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Speaker 2: from federal So but.

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Speaker 3: Where does the MAGA does instinct to say screw the doe.

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Speaker 3: It's not just libertarian, right, it's well, let's be honest,

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Speaker 3: it's about a lot of dei or trands.

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Speaker 1: You know, what was it, Title nine.

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Speaker 3: I think that's what it's called that went through in

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Speaker 3: terms of gender pronouns. That's where the instinct has now

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Speaker 3: come from, is like, these institutions have been used for

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Speaker 3: good purposes but turned against us, So we're going to

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Speaker 3: dismantle them. And if it does stick to that, as

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Speaker 3: long as the dollars keep flowing, will people really notice

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Speaker 3: at the end of the day. My instinct is probably not,

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Speaker 3: and it's probably going.

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Speaker 1: To be popular.

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Speaker 3: I mean, and if you told it to me that way,

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Speaker 3: and you're like, look, we're gonna get rid of this

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Speaker 3: gender DEI stuff and all these bureaucrats and nobody really

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Speaker 3: knows what they do, and the dollars and the checks

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Speaker 3: keep getting cut to all the states of like, well, okay,

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Speaker 3: you know you need some administrators.

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Speaker 1: That's where the instinct comes from.

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Speaker 3: Now I get what you're saying, and I think you're

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Speaker 3: right if they actually impact faa Noah, the oceanic.

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Speaker 1: The people who track the hurricanes.

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Speaker 3: I always use that example because like, who's against that,

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Speaker 3: you know, the guy who flies into the middle of hurricanes? Like,

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Speaker 3: who's a category of four point five? Now it's awesome, right,

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Speaker 3: it's a cool.

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Speaker 1: Job, or coastguard.

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Speaker 3: There's a million different little things even that are non

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Speaker 3: DoD They're actually pretty popular.

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Speaker 1: That's why they start with USAID. Now.

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Speaker 3: I think DOJ in practice is going to look a

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Speaker 3: lot like this is USAID total is point seven Let's

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Speaker 3: say they cut five percent of the you know, zero

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Speaker 3: point seven percent of the federal budget. It's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: we're going to declare victory. This actually kind of gets

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Speaker 3: to the tariff conversation we're going to have in a

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Speaker 3: little bit about well, what really changed here, you know,

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Speaker 3: in terms of what we want. But vibe wise, that's

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Speaker 3: really important for both the media and for people to

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Speaker 3: feel as if these parts of the federal government are

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Speaker 3: getting paired back as long as they're essential services go

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Speaker 3: to them. And so that's why I think it is

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Speaker 3: a big mistake and I feel rudderless and almost religious

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Speaker 3: the way that the Democrats are reacting here to USAID

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Speaker 3: I mean you and I both know a key tenant

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Speaker 3: of neoliberalism are functions like USAID and others. They're literally

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Speaker 3: admitting this stuff out loud. A normal person at home

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Speaker 3: goes what like, I don't care about Malawi and healthcare.

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Speaker 2: I actually think that that is true because I looked

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Speaker 2: at some of the polling on this, and some sixty

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Speaker 2: percent of Americans want the US to.

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Speaker 4: Be a global leader in health.

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Speaker 2: The pet FAR program, the pet Far program in terms

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Speaker 2: of you know, like dealing with AIDS and HIV global

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Speaker 2: has has been a tremendous success with George W. Bush program,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera, tremendously popular dealing with malaria.

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Speaker 4: I mean, USAID helped.

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Speaker 2: To combat ebola, So yes, is it a I mean

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Speaker 2: the whole project of usa ID is soft power projection.

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Speaker 4: That is what it is.

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Speaker 2: But here's the thing, though, is like a couple pieces

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Speaker 2: just to get to the actual substance with regard to USAID.

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Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, you've got a lot of

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Speaker 2: people on Twitter who didn't know what USAID was three

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Speaker 2: days ago, who suddenly are convinced that it's nothing but

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Speaker 2: cis politics.

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Speaker 4: That's number one.

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Speaker 2: Number two, I think the notion that subsuming USAID under

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Speaker 2: the State Department is gonna make it less nefarious is

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Speaker 2: kind of preposterous.

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Speaker 4: Three.

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Speaker 2: Listen, there is also just a key principle here of

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Speaker 2: Congress is if you don't like USA, if you don't

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Speaker 2: like what they're doing, that's fine, have that debate. We

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Speaker 2: have elected representatives. Republicans have control of the House and

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Speaker 2: the Senate, so you have to go through those channels

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Speaker 2: in order to dismantle a congressionally authorized independent agency. That

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Speaker 2: is what the Constitution says. So not to mention, as

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Speaker 2: I said before, you know, I think you really have

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Speaker 2: to keep in mind what the broader project is here

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Speaker 2: from Elon and Trump really has nothing to do with

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Speaker 2: it at this point.

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Speaker 4: I think it's.

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Speaker 2: Pretty clear at every juncture when Trump could arrange Elon

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Speaker 2: in and said, you know, we backed them on H

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Speaker 2: one b's, he backs them here. He gives them the

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Speaker 2: Air Force secretary he wants like. I don't think Trump

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Speaker 2: really cares that much outside of the areas of his

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Speaker 2: interest tariffs and whatever else, immigration, turning off the water,

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Speaker 2: turning on the water in California, and it is performative

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Speaker 2: stuff like those are the thing he cares about everything else.

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Speaker 4: I don't think he really gives a shit.

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Speaker 2: You know, Elon's feeding him talking points about South African

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Speaker 2: farmers now, so you know who is in real control.

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Speaker 2: Elon's project is not just about USAID, it's not just

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Speaker 2: about the Department of Education. It's about dismantling as much

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Speaker 2: of the federal government as he possibly can. And so

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Speaker 2: the USAID thing, it's a trial balloon what can we

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Speaker 2: get away with? And that is the way that everyone

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Speaker 2: needs to understand what's going on. So, regardless of how

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Speaker 2: you feel about USAID, I've got my own issues with it.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm happy to see the imperial project being

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Speaker 2: sort of pulled back in this sort of way. But

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Speaker 2: I'm also not a fool to think that that's really

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Speaker 2: what's going on. When you are talking about an administration

437
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 2: that is openly actually embracing an old school imperial mentality

438
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 2: a lah William McKinley. Let's buy Greenland, let's invade Panama,

439
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: let's try to make Canada the fifty first state. Let's

440
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: go to war with Mexico. I'm not enough of a

441
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 2: fool to think that they're actually intentionally rolling back empire.

442
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 2: Elon wants to make it so that the federal government

443
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 2: is not strong enough, is not stronger than him.

444
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 4: Right, that's the bottom line.

445
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 2: He wants to be able to do everything that he

446
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: wants to do. He wants to be able to profit

447
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 2: as much as he can off of your taxpayer dollars.

448
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 2: And that is the broader project that is.

449
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the word that you just said.

450
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 3: I think what I get to again is trying to

451
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: analyze how it will look like in practice and to

452
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 3: the voter.

453
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,400
Speaker 1: And that's why I come back to this democratic thing.

454
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: I think another problem though, where you're talking about, you know, institutions,

455
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 3: is so many norms and other things have not only

456
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 3: been blown up by Trump, but over the years what

457
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 3: I have seen more.

458
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: Is we talked about this a little bit yesterday, right with.

459
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 3: Norms with for example, I mean, how many times have

460
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 3: I listened to David Serota and others criticized Biden for

461
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 3: not legalizing weed on day one, for not canceling all.

462
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 4: I mean, but they don't care about can do.

463
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: That, Crystal care about but they don't care about Congress

464
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 3: whenever it's about something they want to do.

465
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: When Obama wants.

466
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 3: To legalize millions of illegal immigrants literally overnight and create

467
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 3: an amnesty illegal program called DAKA.

468
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 1: Oh everybody's fine with it then, right.

469
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of hypocrisy here in terms of

470
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 3: like which principles.

471
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: Which it's just way above and beyond like overruling the parliament.

472
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: But it's about Prince No. No, I agree.

473
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 3: I think we're living through the most extraordinary takeover the

474
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 3: federal government since the one hundred Days over FDR. And

475
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 3: if we look back to that time period, and I

476
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 3: know many of the people who have read the same

477
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: books that I have, is what did FDR learn. FDR said,

478
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 3: I don't give a shit about Congress, and I don't

479
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 3: give a shit about the Supreme Court, Civilian Conservation Corps WPA.

480
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 1: We are going to throw everything at the wall.

481
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 3: And actually the people who paired it back became way

482
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 3: less popular, people hated.

483
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 4: But those Supreme Court did passed through Congress.

484
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: No, but actually many of them either were passed through

485
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 3: Congress or were created artificially by his programs. I mean,

486
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 3: many of the criticisms of the Republicans of FDR in

487
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 3: that time period rhyme exactly here, Like hey, what about

488
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: the power of the person. He's like, I'm a king,

489
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 3: I just got elected with this and this not the same.

490
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 3: But the spirit is the thing is is that if

491
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 3: you look back at that time period, the population overwhelmingly

492
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 3: backed aggressive federal executive action. I think what's happening here

493
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: is I mean, Jarvin himself is a student of FDR,

494
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 3: probably more so than anybody else in that project, and

495
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 3: what they understood is that at a popular level, by

496
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 3: doing this, they were basically able to win ninety almost

497
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 3: eighty percent of what they wanted to and that the

498
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: norms and all of that were fake all along.

499
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 2: So, first of all, I don't accept the equivalence between

500
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: what is being done here and like the lawlessness that

501
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 2: is being ok it's executed here in the total disregard

502
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: for the Constitution versus FDR, but in just to make

503
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 2: the coint on the on the popular piece, which I

504
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 2: don't think so is important because it matters in terms

505
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 2: of how people are going to react to this. You know,

506
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 2: FDR was like creating jobs and healthcare programs and things

507
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: that were delivering for people materially.

508
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 4: This is the opposite of that.

509
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 2: This is destroying things that people currently enjoy and take

510
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 2: for granted from the federal government. That's the program, that's

511
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 2: the project. So again in theory, in the abstract, do

512
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: people support cutting the federal government but of course sure,

513
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: of course. Do they support rolling back free school lunch

514
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 2: for poor kids? No, probably eighty five percent of the

515
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 2: country would say no to that. Do they support rolling

516
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 2: back pelgrants also under the Department of Education, No, they

517
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: do not support that. Do they support rolling back federal

518
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: funding for poor district or any school district. I mean,

519
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 2: one of the cautionary tales I think that people should

520
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: look at is back during the teacher strike.

521
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 4: Wave which hit red states.

522
00:24:54,240 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 2: Red states in particular, rural red areas take public education seriously.

523
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 2: And I think you're right that there is you know,

524
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 2: there was a reaction against like this sense, oh my god,

525
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 2: my kids are being indoctrinated, blah blah blah. But if

526
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: you go after people's school districts in those towns, those

527
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 2: are institutions of small town America, you will have a

528
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 2: fight on your hands. So with usaid, I do think,

529
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 2: you know, I don't think it's as popular as you do,

530
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: but I do think it is the most low hanging fruit,

531
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 2: which is exactly why they went after it first. But

532
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: if you think that this project doesn't have in its

533
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 2: sites things that you or you or anyone out there

534
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 2: appreciates and enjoys and takes for granted, oh, food safety,

535
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 2: hurricane tracking, planes not crashing into each other and falling

536
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 2: out of the sky, medicare, social security, You're a fool.

537
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 2: So the question is when will this be rained in?

538
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 2: How far does it go? I'll go ahead and play.

539
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: Since we've been teasing it for like eighteen minutes now,

540
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 2: the Democrats finally showed up.

541
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 4: You know that.

542
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 2: I don't know what they've been up to, but not

543
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 2: a whole lot. But they finally showed up at the

544
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 2: USAID building to protest the fact that it has been

545
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 2: shuttered you. I'll give you some more of the details

546
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: here in just a minute. About you know, the employees

547
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: have been told not to show up at the AGE

548
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 2: at the headquarters today. They've been told not to show up.

549
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 2: But any of the USAID buildings, people who are overseas

550
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: right now have been blocked access from their government security

551
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: apps and from their communications, et cetera. So Democrats showed

552
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 2: up there to make a stand, not always in the

553
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 2: most effective way. Let's take a listen to how that

554
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 2: went down.

555
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 8: USAID fights terrorist groups all across this world, making sure

556
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 8: that we address the underlying causes for a retreat to terrorism.

557
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 8: USAID chases China all around the world, making sure that

558
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 8: China doesn't monopolize contracts for critical minerals, important infrastructure all

559
00:26:54,160 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 8: around the world. It supports freedom fighters every where in

560
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 8: this world.

561
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 9: We are witnessing a constitutional crisis. We talked about Trump

562
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 9: wanting to be a dictator on day one, and here

563
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 9: we are. This is what the beginning of dictatorship looks like.

564
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 2: And Elon, if you want to run AID, get nominated

565
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: by Trump and go to the Senate and good luck

566
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 2: and getting confirmed.

567
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 10: Yeah, Elon Musk, you didn't create USAID. The United States

568
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 10: Congress did for the American people. And sos like Elon

569
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 10: Musk did not create USAID. He doesn't have the power

570
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 10: to destroy it. And who's gonna stop him. We are,

571
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 10: We're gonna stop him.

572
00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 11: Elon Musk, you may have illegally seized power over the

573
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 11: financial payment systems of the United States Department of Treasury,

574
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 11: but you don't control the money of the American people.

575
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 10: The United States Congress does that.

576
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 2: So the funniest one there, of course, Chris Murphy at

577
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: the beginning. That is the COI part out loudah Mi like, hey, Chris,

578
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: freedom fighters.

579
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 1: We're not supposed to say that fights terrorist. I mean,

580
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 1: which freedom?

581
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 4: What was that? Yeah?

582
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I mean this is this is the first

583
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 2: thing that they've really showed up to. I mean somewhat

584
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: the Medicaid portals being shut down.

585
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it was over so quickly.

586
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 4: But yeah, that's that's right.

587
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 2: But you know, they pushed back there, and I think

588
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: there was Republican pushback there too, behind the scenes, no

589
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: doubt about it. That helped get that, you know, flipped

590
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 2: on a dime. But they are finally trying to show

591
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: up for this, and yeah, not not making the best arguments,

592
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 2: but I think a lot of Democratic base voters will

593
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: be happy to see at least they're doing something worse.

594
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 4: So far, they've been just like asleep.

595
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: I think you might be right. I don't know.

596
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: I mean when I look at that, I just see

597
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 3: a supreme lack of political talent across the board.

598
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 2: I'm just like I thought Illan's comments there were probably

599
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 2: the right.

600
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: The problem again is that you always have to be

601
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 3: able to connect rhetoric to actual action, telling people like,

602
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 3: I mean, what we really learn from the campaign against Trump?

603
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: I learned a lot from the twenty twenty four campaign.

604
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 3: But really what it was is like you can warn

605
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 3: all day long, and if people don't like the status quo,

606
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 3: they do not care about a lot of this, they

607
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: need to feel it for real and for right now.

608
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 7: You know.

609
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 3: That's why I was saying, it's kind of genius to

610
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 3: start with USAID, a program that you know, only people

611
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 3: in Washington care about, mostly because it's paying a lot

612
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 3: of their salaries, but also it's just one of those

613
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: where if he's explained it to a normal person, you

614
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: made a compelling case about pelgrants and all of that,

615
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: you know, we'd if your doge, what do you do?

616
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 3: Or if Trump really, let's put dose because they probably

617
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 3: would cut it. But if you're Trump, you're like, don't

618
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 3: touch don't touch pelgrants, scholarship, don't touch federal stuff. Fire

619
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 3: all the you know, career bureaucrats or whatever that are

620
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 3: working on anything Title nine or ten or whatever related,

621
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 3: and you know, will anybody really notice? Probably not, And

622
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 3: like that's kind of what it gets to in the

623
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 3: FDR thing, what's fascinating about this.

624
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: This is a reverse FDR.

625
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: It's a dismantling of as opposed to a building up.

626
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 3: But in a sense, what's happened in both cases is

627
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: that the crisis of nineteen thirty three was this idea

628
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 3: that the government was not there to address all of

629
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 3: these problems, whereas the crisis of I guess twenty twenty

630
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 3: four in the minds of many Americans, so that the

631
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 3: government itself has created many of these problems, or at

632
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: least intellectualized the way that in practice, if we are

633
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 3: to blame, we're talking about cultural issues or even you know,

634
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: immigration literally just a result of direct government policy. It's

635
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: about a rolling back of like a regime slash a government.

636
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 3: So I think this is nothing ever is you know,

637
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 3: one hundred percent one to one, But analogy wise, it's

638
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 3: the only thing I can really think of, maybe the

639
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 3: John F.

640
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: Kennedy first one hundred days.

641
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 3: I hope we don't don't find ourselves a similar international crisis,

642
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 3: although I am worried about it, but that's kind of

643
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 3: my mental model for how I'm thinking about it. And

644
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: there is a big question mark that remains around how

645
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 3: people will popularly receive a lot of this. I don't

646
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 3: take a lot of these polls at face value. Just

647
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 3: kind of been all over the place. Someone yesterday said

648
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 3: Trump but fifty two percent. I saw the same tracking

649
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 3: poll you're talking about. I'm curious to see the Virginia election,

650
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 3: that gubernatorial election, which is always off here in terms

651
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: of what does it mean for enthused Democratics.

652
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 4: Well, we already had a little test run in Iowa.

653
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: That's true.

654
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 4: There was a twenty one point swing.

655
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: But you know, that's the first indication that we've gotten

656
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: that even as the Democratic Party has been asleep, the

657
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: Democratic base voters in that district in Iowa really showed up.

658
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: I mean it was like a twenty plus point swing

659
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 2: in the direction of a Democrat for them to win.

660
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: There was another special election in a Democratic blue district

661
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: in Minnesota. I want to say that also shifted even more.

662
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 2: Who was like the Republican got like eight percent of

663
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: the vote or something prepostors like that, whereas previously they

664
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: were getting I don't know, twenty percent of the vote.

665
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: I'm making up these numbers with us approximately what it is.

666
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 2: So you're right, that will be the first really indication

667
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: and test case but I think where there's a huge

668
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 2: vulnerability here that Democrats can exploit if they're willing to,

669
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: you know, not do their whole Like good billionaires, bad

670
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 2: billionaires stick. But nobody wants the government run by an

671
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 2: unelected billionaire. I mean, you pull that it's dramatically, dramatically unpopular,

672
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: and especially when it's so clear that he's running it

673
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: for his own ideology and self interested reasons. Like I

674
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: think the reaction against you're right in a sense. I

675
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 2: think if I were advising the Democratic Party, I would

676
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 2: focus more on the treasury takeover and some of those

677
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 2: things which are way more you know, to me, are

678
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 2: like the core of what's really frightening about what is

679
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 2: being done here. And it's also I think there's a

680
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: bunch of lawsuits filed already against Elon and his acolytes

681
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: and like the violation of privacy laws and other laws

682
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: that have likely occurred here, not to mention the violation

683
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 2: of just like the separation of powers. And by the way,

684
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 2: Eline you weren't elected anything that are going to go forward,

685
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: but you know, you're in this situation where it's like

686
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 2: the courts are slow, so even if they issue an injunction.

687
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 2: That's going to take some time, and then there's a

688
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: question like are they going to listen?

689
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 4: I don't know.

690
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 2: I kind of doubt it given how they've operated thus far.

691
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: Weard's just like, we want to do it, so we're

692
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 2: going to do it ultimately, you know. I mean Elon

693
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: is already clearly if he's a special government employees, already

694
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: clearly violated like the criminal statue with regard to conflicts

695
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 2: of interest, and it doesn't seem to really matter. So

696
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: that's why I think this is, you know, can accurately

697
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 2: be described as constitutional crisis and beyond because they are

698
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: clearly violating the constitution, the separation of power, the power

699
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 2: of the purse, et cetera, and the system is just

700
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: totally unable to deal with it, to catch up, to

701
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 2: handle the speed that this is all unfolding out, which

702
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: is I shocked everyone, I think, including according to the

703
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: reporting people in the Trump White House or like, what.

704
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 4: The hell is going on here? And they're not read

705
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 4: in on it either.

706
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: I think that's where the big democratic check will come

707
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 3: into is, let's say we do start going after pel

708
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 3: grants or whatever. Trump's gonna be like, Yeah, I'm not

709
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 3: dealing with all. I still think there is an existential

710
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 3: ricks actually to Elon of getting Steve Bannon.

711
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: And you know, remember the whole.

712
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 3: Sloppy Steve saga of two thousand and seventeen. If he

713
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,399
Speaker 3: causes a genuine political crisis for the Trump White House,

714
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 3: which is eminently possible, he will have his ass out

715
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 3: of there.

716
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 1: In NOTEB well.

717
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: And I think Bannon is correct to understand my Bannon's

718
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: ideology is not my ideology, although you know there are.

719
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 4: More shared overlap.

720
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 2: There's more overlap between my ideology and Bannon's than I

721
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 2: have no overlap with Elon musk ideology of just like

722
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 2: burned down the whole federal government and let the corporate

723
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 2: overlords rule everything like God kings.

724
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 4: That is the polar opposite of my ideology.

725
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 2: Bannon is right to see this as an existential threat

726
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 2: to his own project and ideology will and I think

727
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: this will come up more when we talk about I

728
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 2: mean tariff somewhat, but even more so, the gutting of

729
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 2: the National Labor Relations Board, the gutting of the SEC,

730
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 2: the gutting of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, because you know,

731
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: Bannon likes le Na Khan he thinks corporate power should

732
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: be checked. That's the polar opposite of what Elon thinks.

733
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 2: And so here you are. If you're a part of

734
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 2: the populist right project. You got your JD Vance in there,

735
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 2: You've got your guy Trump, who has at least said

736
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 2: some of the right things and done some of the

737
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: right things in the past. You like, this is your moment,

738
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: and now you've got this billionaire who's just hijacked the

739
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 2: whole thing and is running as fast as he can

740
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: and the total opposite direction with no one, with no

741
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 2: one putting a check into place. So I think this

742
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 2: is you know, obviously, none of this is like I

743
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 2: find this all to be horrifying and I'm struggling to

744
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: like wrap my head around how bad things could actually get.

745
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 2: But if you are also on the populist right, I

746
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: think you should also perceive this as an existential chance

747
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 2: threat to your project, which is has its best moment

748
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: of potential success right now and is being evaporating like

749
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 2: before our eyes.

750
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: I think they do, But I also think they know

751
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 1: who the king is at the moment. You're going to

752
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 1: have to wait for a while.

753
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:19,919
Speaker 4: To be able for an opening.

754
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 3: Strike because I mean, look, you know, nobody else paid

755
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 3: a quarter bill to get Trump elected.

756
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: Trump takes that pretty seriously. So do a lot of

757
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 1: the people in the government right now.

758
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 2: I mean, Trump is not id a lot. That's the

759
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 2: thing is he never gave a shit about any of this.

760
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, and I've always been pretty honest about it.

761
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 7: I know.

762
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: You yeah, many people, many people do.

763
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 3: And there's also look, there's an element of political realism

764
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 3: for a lot of this, where are like, yeah, look,

765
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 3: you know, as long as we get mass deportation, maybe

766
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: we can live with some of this. That's kind of

767
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 3: the thinking and the talk that I've heard from others.

768
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:52,760
Speaker 3: But I think there will be some big fights ahead.

769
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 4: You know.

770
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 3: Another thing I was thinking about yesterday, even though it

771
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 3: feels like eternity, it's been two weeks, it's like and

772
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 3: it's one of those where in the long cycle of

773
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 3: all of these presidencies and Biden, Biden did not go

774
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 3: negative until October twenty twenty one. That was nine months

775
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 3: right where he basically was in a positive territory. Yeah,

776
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: although when someone asked me five years from now, what

777
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 3: do you remember about the Biden presidency, be like, oh,

778
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 3: people hated him but what the truth is, it's like

779
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 3: the first nine months kind of honeymoon.

780
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 5: Yeah.

781
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 2: Well, and you know why people liked because they did

782
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: a lot of federal government action, like to materially benefit people.

783
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: I mean, that was the most popular stuff that he

784
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: did was at the beginning when checks were going out

785
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 2: and there was you know, a huge COVID relief program.

786
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 4: That's when he was most popular.

787
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 2: And then the two things that killed him forst Afghanistan,

788
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 2: which I hate to admit, but that's the reality obviously,

789
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 2: and he never recovered from that, and then inflation, inflation

790
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 2: murdered and that was you know, and that was it.

791
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 2: So I mean, that's the complete polar opposite direction of

792
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 2: what's being done here. That was a building up of government.

793
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't call it FDR, but it was

794
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 2: a break from the neoliberal era. It was, you know,

795
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 2: an expansion of the social safety net. You know, Trump

796
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 2: said the same thing and his administration to deal with

797
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: COVID as well. And when Biden really became unpopular was

798
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,240
Speaker 2: also because all of those pieces that had been added

799
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 2: to the social safety net are stripped away. So that's

800
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 2: why I think, you know, I disagree with you that

801
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 2: there's like some mandate, some desire to destroy all the

802
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 2: federal government programs because you know, when you ask people,

803
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: they think that the Pentagon should be cut.

804
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 4: Which is not going to happen.

805
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: They don't think that programs that benefit Americans should be cut.

806
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 4: And you know, and I think it is telling.

807
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 2: That's why they do start with USAID because you can

808
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 2: also fit it into this framework of oh, that's where

809
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 2: you're you know, we're making it America first, and then

810
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 2: once you accomplish that, then you can move on to

811
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: the things that are more politically difficult and where there

812
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,240
Speaker 2: may be more popular pushbacks.

813
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: Just put a bow on it.

814
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 3: I don't think that there's ever a mandate to strip

815
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 3: the federal government all agency. I would equate it to

816
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 3: if you ever worked in a company and there's a

817
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 3: bunch of hr people who have a ton of power

818
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 3: but who don't do anything, who everybody hates. I always

819
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 3: see it as the mandate is strip that a way,

820
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,399
Speaker 3: whether it's reality or not, the feeling as if they're

821
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 3: doing nothing and they're actually making operations here more difficult

822
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: in practice, that's what I think basically will materialize. As

823
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: opposed to cutting any critical function now I'm not going

824
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: to lie. You know, this whole move fast and Brave

825
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 3: things ideology very much could move in the other direction.

826
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: I mean, it nearly bankrupted Tesla. We've seen what did

827
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: did too.

828
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 6: But it's work.

829
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the problem. The Peter Thiele quote

830
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 1: comes to mind.

831
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 3: It's like, you look financially, should you ever bet against him?

832
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: Probably not.

833
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 2: I mean, the government is not a business, though, I mean,

834
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 2: that's the thing is if well, first of all, i mean,

835
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 2: if you look at the management of Twitter, it's been

836
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 2: a catastrophe, both in terms of the functioning of the

837
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 2: product and the profitability of the product, et cetera. You know,

838
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 2: it's been that has been a total and complete disaster.

839
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 2: But also, and we've talked about this before that I

840
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: know you agree with part of this, Like the way

841
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 2: you run a business, and the consequences of a business

842
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 2: cutting too deeply and you know, having an off quarter

843
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 2: in terms of their earnings or whatever, profoundly different than

844
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: cutting too deeply at the federal government and people die,

845
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 2: or kids don't have their head start, or checks don't

846
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 2: go out, or the government defaults, like those are the

847
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 2: sorts of things that that's the way Elon operates, Right,

848
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 2: he comes in, he cuts massively, like not, oh, in

849
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 2: this area, we have a little fat no blanket across

850
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 2: the board. He causes a near catastrophe and then tries

851
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 2: to rebuild from the ashes, like that's the way he operates.

852
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 2: That's the way he's operating the federal government. And I

853
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 2: know there's this instinct of like, oh, we should run

854
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 2: the government like a business. The government should not be

855
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 2: run like a business, because businesses it's all just about

856
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 2: profit for the shareholders. The government is about providing critical,

857
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 2: at times life saving programs and resources to the population.

858
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 2: Not to mention, of course, what overarches all of this

859
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 2: and why everyone should be disturbed by it is like,

860
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: if you happen to like Elon, substitute George Soros or

861
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 2: Bill Gates or whatever billionaire you don't like. We shouldn't

862
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 2: have an unelected billionaire appointing himself king and just operating

863
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 2: carte blanche, cutting whatever programs he happens not to like,

864
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 2: whatever agencies he happens not to like, or has like

865
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 2: a personal grievance.

866
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 4: With or whatever.

867
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 2: That is the end of the project that we have

868
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: known as America for the past several hundred years like

869
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: that is the end of that if we end up

870
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: in a situation where one unelected billionaire can just appoint

871
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 2: himself king and operate with impunity.

872
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 4: And let's just last piece here.

873
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 2: We can put the last element guys up on the

874
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: screen and then we can transition in toto. Talking about

875
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: tariffs a little bit does fit in with all of

876
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 2: this as well. But there have been I think now

877
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: four different lawsuits that have been filed. This one was

878
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:12,280
Speaker 2: filed by I know AFL, Cio SCIU and a couple

879
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 2: other groups together. They're specifically going after Doge's access to

880
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 2: the Treasury Department's payment system. They say that it violates

881
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 2: the Privacy Act of nineteen seventy four and other IRS statutes.

882
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 2: As I said, I think there are three other lawsuits

883
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 2: at least that have been filed in federal courts at

884
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 2: this point, so we'll see. I think the next couple

885
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 2: pieces are what do the courts do? How does elon

886
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: and how did Trump? How do they react to any

887
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 2: negative court decisions? And then the other piece, just to flag,

888
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 2: which Mattagleci is actually flagged on Twitter, is there's a

889
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 2: big funding fight. We're about to hit the debt ceiling

890
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 2: in mid March. And you know, now you got Elon

891
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 2: in charge of the treasury payment system or acts.

892
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 4: I shouldn't say in charge access to.

893
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 3: The treasure only access according to the White Yes, I

894
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: don't actually you know what that means.

895
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, but anyway, access to the charger of payments system

896
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: and whatever else he wants access to. How Democrats are

897
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 2: thinking that that's going to be a place where they

898
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 2: can exert some pressure and try to rein in what's

899
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 2: happening here. How does that fight go down? Do they

900
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 2: just say, oh, no, we're just going to pay the

901
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 2: things we want to pay and that support our you know,

902
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 2: ideological ends, and not pay the things that don't be fair.

903
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,760
Speaker 1: That are basically what the Obama administration and them did.

904
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 4: With the extraordinary measures.

905
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what extraordinary measures are. So I mean, but

906
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 3: at a certain points Trump does run the government like

907
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 3: he is the president of the United States. So when

908
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 3: a shutdown, you can decide what you want to pay

909
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 3: for or not.

910
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: I don't disagree.

911
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it's good on anything, but and you're right,

912
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 3: we should prepare people for that.

913
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 1: It's absolutely Yeah.

914
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 2: So that is the next the next The next piece is, Okay,

915
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:47,800
Speaker 2: what happens with the courts, how do they respond to

916
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 2: the courts? And what happens with the dead ceiling showdown?

917
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to Tariff's a dizzying day yesterday

918
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 3: in Washington as the news rolled in.

919
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: Are the tariffs on? Are they off? What's happening?

920
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:01,800
Speaker 3: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

921
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: Trump's truth social I just spoke with President Claudia Shinbaum

922
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 3: of Mexico.

923
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: Was a friendly conversation.

924
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 3: She agreed to immediately supply ten thousand Mexican soldiers on

925
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 3: the border separating Mexico in the United States. These soldiers

926
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 3: will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanol

927
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 3: and illegal migrants into our country. We further agreed to immediately.

928
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: Pause the anticipated tariffs for a one month period, during

929
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: which we'll.

930
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 3: Have negotiations headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. I

931
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: look forward to participating in those negotiations. Mexico confirmed this news.

932
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: Claudia Shinebaum, let's go and put that on the screen.

933
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:39,439
Speaker 3: Put out actually broke the news first. Justin Trudeau similarly said,

934
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 3: I just had a good call with President Trump. Canada

935
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 3: is implementing our one point three billion dollar border plan,

936
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 3: reinforcing the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination.

937
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 3: Nearly ten thousand frontline soldiers our personnel are and will

938
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 3: be working on protecting the border. In addition, Canada is

939
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 3: making commitments to a point of fentanyl z are. We

940
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,919
Speaker 3: will list cartels, terrorists, ensure twenty four to seven eyes

941
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 3: on the border, launch a Canada US joint strike force

942
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 3: to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. I have

943
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 3: also signed a new intelligence directive that we will be

944
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 3: backing with two hundred million dollars. Proposed tariffs will be

945
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 3: paused for at least thirty days while we work together.

946
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 1: So there's been.

947
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 2: Once your point is our problem, basically you're done over.

948
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: It's a big question as to what happened here, whether

949
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 3: this was the plan all along. Many people are pointing

950
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: out the fact that much of this actually existed already. So,

951
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 3: for example, put B three up on the screen, Joe Biden.

952
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: Under the Biden administration, Mexico had apparently sent some fifteen

953
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 3: thousand troops to the border. It's unclear whether there's going

954
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 3: to be an additional ten thousand here, bringing the total

955
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 3: to twenty five thousand. Similarly, in Canada, it appeared that

956
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 3: some of these initiatives are already on the books on

957
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:54,279
Speaker 3: January thirteenth, before Trump even took office. So I don't know,

958
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 3: I mean, whether this is symbolic or not in terms

959
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 3: of the Trump demands. I mean, the fundamental difference, I

960
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 3: guess comes down to both the leverage, the power used

961
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 3: and the interim thirty day period, as in, well, if

962
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,919
Speaker 3: we don't like the results, that we're going to change things,

963
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 3: so fundamentally, that's what I would say. The overall difference is.

964
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 3: But the tariffs are offered now for the next thirty

965
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 3: days S and P.

966
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: Five hundred. As of this morning, let's.

967
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 3: See, it is up by point one four percent, even

968
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 3: with the China tariffs.

969
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 1: So yeah, the markets were a little I mean, they

970
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:26,439
Speaker 1: were a little royal.

971
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 3: They actually didn't expect as bad. They didn't, well, I

972
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 3: guess the act as badly as I thought.

973
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 4: I think they kind of assumed this is what was

974
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 4: I was going to say.

975
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 3: So what if there is the rational market hypothesis that

976
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 3: they were correct, that the tariffs itself were never going

977
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 3: to happen, Maybe we should reconsider.

978
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:41,399
Speaker 7: That, right.

979
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,800
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm just, I guess still a little confused

980
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 2: about what these tariffs are supposed to be about in

981
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 2: the first place, because the way I understood it and

982
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 2: the way you I think accurately explained it yesterday is like, well,

983
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 2: they're really about economics, but you have to put this

984
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 2: bullshit layer of it's about fentanyl on top, even though

985
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: like no infentional comes from Canada. Basically it's very small percentage, right,

986
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 2: one percent. But then all the quote unquote concessions, even

987
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 2: if we grant that their concessions are about sens at all,

988
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 2: they're not about economics. And Trump previously had been saying,

989
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 2: you know, the only way Canada can fly is if

990
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: they become a fifty first staid or if our trade

991
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 2: deficit becomes zero and is balanced down. But then you

992
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 2: know what he gets in exchange for this is, oh,

993
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 2: we're going to appoint the fentanels are and keep the

994
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 2: troops on the border that are already there. So you know,

995
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 2: we're about to talk about the popularity of terrorists such

996
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 2: as something that you've been talking about.

997
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 4: And I actually think.

998
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 2: That a tariff regime could be popular even if it

999
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 2: did require, you know, some pain, as Trump floated that

1000
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: there would be as a result of these things. But

1001
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 2: just as you know, we're about to talk to Matt

1002
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 2: Stoller about this, already record of the conversation.

1003
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 4: That's why I'm previewing this.

1004
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,280
Speaker 2: But you know, just as Biden failed to enlist people

1005
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 2: in the like Anti trust project and you know, a

1006
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 2: National Relations Board and the CFPB, there has to be

1007
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 2: a story that people understand of why they're sacrificing, why

1008
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 2: they're experiencing this pain. And right now there you know,

1009
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 2: there is no real It's all over the place.

1010
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 4: It makes no sense. Why Canada, Why.

1011
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 2: Are you putting higher tariffs in theory on Canada than

1012
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 2: you are on China?

1013
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 4: Like what is Canada done wrong?

1014
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 2: So you know, I think that's part of the thing

1015
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 2: here is if you want to make this about bringing

1016
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 2: back American manufacturing jobs, reindustrializing the industrial Midwest, I think

1017
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 2: there's a chance that you could enlist the American people

1018
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 2: in that project. But number one, I don't think that

1019
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 2: most of these tariffs accomplish that goal. And number two,

1020
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 2: I think the story about them is deeply confused.

1021
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 4: Contradictory tarifs are a tool.

1022
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 3: I mean look, I in principle, I'm like, great, you know,

1023
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 3: twenty five thousand more troops of the border.

1024
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:56,919
Speaker 7: Great.

1025
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 3: Having leverage over our allies to and Mexico very questionable.

1026
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 3: But it's one of those where like you said, look,

1027
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 3: I believe in the story. I believe in the tariffs.

1028
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 3: I believe in bringing back a lot of this manufacturing.

1029
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,439
Speaker 3: And so if this is all it takes in order

1030
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 3: to basically get you to call them off, I don't know.

1031
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 3: I mean, is it going to be a fundamental difference. Maybe,

1032
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 3: you know, I guess it's an open question as to that.

1033
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 3: I think the reason I was excited about them, the

1034
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 3: reason I like the idea of even threatening, is I

1035
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:31,360
Speaker 3: fundamentally believe in using American assistance, power and the economy

1036
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 3: to achieve ends that are good for our people. Now,

1037
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 3: the American people have voted for Donald D. Trump on

1038
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 3: a message of immigration threatening the Mexican economy, which is

1039
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 3: eighty percent exports to the United States if they don't

1040
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 3: help us out more on that is, in principle a

1041
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 3: thing I think is fantastic. I think it's good to

1042
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 3: be able to get them to either send troops there

1043
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 3: and to have a one month cliff falling over their head,

1044
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 3: where it's like, hey, guys, the guillotine's going to fall

1045
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:54,760
Speaker 3: if you don't get your act together.

1046
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: All I totally support.

1047
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 3: But the problem is is that with this the way

1048
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 3: it's currently is, it runs the risk of what you're

1049
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 3: saying of not falling into this broader national project. Now,

1050
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 3: the China tariffs, for example, luckily at least in my opinion,

1051
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,359
Speaker 3: have gone into place, and I hope and we're about

1052
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 3: to talk, as you said with Stoller about the Deminimus

1053
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 3: exception and more of which I really am praying and

1054
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 3: hoping that they close it just because of the impact

1055
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:22,839
Speaker 3: it's had on our overall economy. But when there's not

1056
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,879
Speaker 3: the lacks explanation, when the lacks coherent vision, that's when

1057
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 3: you risk blowback. And in the event that these tariffs

1058
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 3: ever do go into power, we perhaps could see that.

1059
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: So we had to want to speak for Harry Eton.

1060
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 4: One more thing and then we'll get Harry Inton.

1061
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 2: There is also a risk here that I think we

1062
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 2: already see playing out, and maybe you know, honestly from

1063
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 2: my ideological perspective, it's kind of a silver lining. But

1064
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:47,800
Speaker 2: because all of this, you know, threat I'm going to

1065
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 2: threaten Columbia, a threatened Mexican front Canada for some reason,

1066
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 2: because this is all being done and even after you know,

1067
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 2: Canada had already announced this one point three billion dollar

1068
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 2: package and enforce in anticipation of Trump coming in to

1069
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 2: try to please him. In advance, Mexico had done a

1070
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:07,839
Speaker 2: very similar thing with Claudia Scheinbaum, massively increasing the number

1071
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 2: of raids. The amount of fentanyl that was being seized

1072
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 2: at the border dropped to some of the lowest levels

1073
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 2: in years. So they felt like, Okay, we're doing the

1074
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 2: things he wants us to do, and still they end

1075
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 2: up in this situation of you know, being bullied and

1076
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 2: threatened and you know, put jubbed into crisis and all

1077
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 2: of this sort of stuff. So you already see European

1078
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 2: leaders talking the Financial Times, for example, saying, you know,

1079
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 2: we no longer see really China as the.

1080
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 4: Greatest rust to us.

1081
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 2: We actually think that it's these guys over here, and

1082
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 2: maybe we need to form a sort of anti American

1083
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:44,600
Speaker 2: alliance because individually we have no chance. And Trump is

1084
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: floating tariffs against the EU as you know as well,

1085
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 2: and so you know that's the other piece, is you

1086
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 2: are sort of aligning, forcing the world's hand, accelerating a

1087
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:58,399
Speaker 2: shift that was already happening. Now, from my perspective, that

1088
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 2: may not be the worst thing in the world, but

1089
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 2: if you're interested in American power and empire, this is

1090
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 2: definitely counter to that particular political project.

1091
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 3: I actually don't agree. I'll tell you why. Which is Okay, Mexico,

1092
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 3: what are you going to do? Eighty percent of your

1093
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 3: economy or exports rely on us. You ain't going nowhere? Okay,

1094
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 3: who are you going to sell to Canada? Geography matter.

1095
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 3: Seventy four percent of your exports come into the United States.

1096
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 3: They were floating, Oh, maybe we should join the European Union. Yeah,

1097
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,440
Speaker 3: good luck. Same thing in terms of the Europeans. Oh

1098
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 3: maybe we'll rely on China. Oh, China is going to

1099
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 3: give you they're nuclear umbrella and they're going to protect

1100
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,520
Speaker 3: you from all of your problems so that you guys

1101
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 3: can have universal health care. But you don't actually defend

1102
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 3: yourselves and these giant social welfare states. So let's get

1103
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 3: real too about how long it's taken seventy five years

1104
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 3: of integration for the European Union and for the European

1105
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 3: economies in the United States. It's taken two hundred years

1106
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 3: now of Canada and Mexico. They are going nowhere, maybe Africa, India, China,

1107
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 3: South Korea, Japan. Those are the countries I worry much

1108
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 3: more about. But these people nothing, I mean, no matter what,

1109
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: they will be heavily reliant on the effectively client stays.

1110
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 3: I mean, that's what it is.

1111
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 1: The problem is that they don't like that.

1112
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 3: I like reminding them of some of that, especially whenever

1113
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 3: it comes to the border, and the border alone is

1114
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 3: certainly justification for hitting them with tariffs or threatening tariffs

1115
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:18,400
Speaker 3: if we want to. I would like, though, to see

1116
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 3: a return to some of what we talked about previously

1117
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 3: yesterday about manufacturing and about the fact that NAFTA itself

1118
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 3: had decimated a huge part of our manufacturing sector. The

1119
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 3: way that these automakers currently operate, where a single part

1120
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 3: will cross like forty or fifty times the Canadian the

1121
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 3: Mexican border, It'll cross three separate borders like multiple times

1122
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 3: before it ever even makes its way into a car,

1123
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 3: and then oh it's called American made. There's still a

1124
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 3: lot of deficits in the USMCA, so I had thought

1125
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 3: it was an opening on USMC, and I mean, I

1126
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 3: guess it certainly could be in terms of setting the

1127
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:55,760
Speaker 3: ground for what that looks like, but for right now

1128
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 3: seems seems to be wrapped up.

1129
00:53:57,960 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1130
00:53:58,320 --> 00:53:59,479
Speaker 1: I don't really know what else to say.

1131
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, welt and we'll see what happens a month from

1132
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:03,680
Speaker 2: now and we go back to this when we see

1133
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: this rodeo play on again. By the way, I should

1134
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 2: mention there were people floating also that. I mean, you

1135
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 2: got a bunch of billionaire like I mean, the Treasury

1136
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:16,320
Speaker 2: secretary is a billionaire hedge fun guy, George Soros buddy,

1137
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 2: and wondering if there is also some profiting going on

1138
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 2: over these manufactured market drops and recoveries something.

1139
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 3: Oh, you're talking about the Soros finance, like a four

1140
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:30,919
Speaker 3: x trade. That's actually pretty interesting. I wonder if they're

1141
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,879
Speaker 3: if any got people, you know, people flag any trades

1142
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 3: because these are all.

1143
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 1: Public, right.

1144
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 2: If you're you know, if you're the Treasury secretary and

1145
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 2: you know what Trump's basic plan is here, well you're

1146
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 2: in a position of profit officially.

1147
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 3: Well it wouldn't even be him per se, but at

1148
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 3: this point with all the guidelines or whatever, but maybe

1149
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:45,840
Speaker 3: people who used to.

1150
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 2: Work something if we keep going through this cycle, it

1151
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 2: may be something to keep in mind for the Wow.

1152
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: Well, here's the problem.

1153
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 3: You're going to encourage a bunch of retail traders to

1154
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:55,320
Speaker 3: start doing four x and trying to recreate the shorting

1155
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 3: of the British.

1156
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:58,720
Speaker 2: I am not encouraging to do any I'm just telling

1157
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 2: you what others are floating online and something to keep

1158
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 2: an eye on.

1159
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 1: You might be encouraging me to be.

1160
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 3: I'm like, well, maybe this money we made here, you know,

1161
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 3: don't make you some phone cult.

1162
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 1: No, I'm not going to go to president.

1163
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:12,359
Speaker 2: All right, Let's get to Harry Nsen, who broke down

1164
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 2: some of the pulling about how people actually feel about tariffs.

1165
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 12: Let's sayalism Trump's tariffs on Canada, China, Mexico.

1166
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 7: Look at this, just thirty eight percent support.

1167
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 12: You don't have to be a mathematical genius to figure

1168
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 12: out that fifty one percent oppose is larger than the thirty.

1169
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 7: Eight percent support. Look.

1170
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,280
Speaker 12: Trump has done some fairly popular things in his first

1171
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 12: few weeks in office.

1172
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 7: This is not one of them.

1173
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 12: No, no, no, horrible, horrible, horrible. To quote Charles Barkley,

1174
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 12: the American folks are opposed to these tariffs. When you

1175
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,360
Speaker 12: ask it specifically like this about the three countries, or

1176
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 12: if you ask it more vaguely about tariff's overall, they

1177
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:51,200
Speaker 12: simply put do not like it, mister.

1178
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 13: Interesting, even with China in the question, people say that

1179
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 13: they are opposed to tariff's.

1180
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: The majority here, and there's not a majority on a

1181
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 1: lot of things these days.

1182
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 12: The two big focuses for Trump in the polling our

1183
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,280
Speaker 12: immigration and the economy tariffs.

1184
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 7: Ain't it, my dear friend, tariff's. Ain't it? Trump should

1185
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 7: focus on tariffs.

1186
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 12: In November of twenty twenty four, when IPSOS asked that

1187
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 12: it was one percent, look.

1188
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 7: At what happened to December of twenty twenty four.

1189
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 12: It doubled. It doubled, but to only two percent. When

1190
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 12: you double to only two percent, you know that the

1191
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 12: American people don't want Trump's.

1192
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 7: Focus to be here.

1193
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 12: They don't like it. They don't want his focus to

1194
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:24,760
Speaker 12: be there. They want it to be on other issues.

1195
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 12: You know, Trump has done a lot of things that

1196
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:28,760
Speaker 12: are unpopular in the past, but the poll numbers haven't moved.

1197
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:30,760
Speaker 12: That may be the case here, but I'm a little

1198
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:33,400
Speaker 12: skeptical of that. Why take a look at weekly Google

1199
00:56:33,440 --> 00:56:36,400
Speaker 12: searches for Terras. Look how much higher they are versus

1200
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 12: a year ago. They're twenty four hundred percent.

1201
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 7: That reach is a twenty one year high.

1202
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:42,879
Speaker 12: You know, folks are paying attention when there are more

1203
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 12: Google searches for that than for Taylor Swift, who almost

1204
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 12: always is in the top.

1205
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 7: Of Google search.

1206
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 4: Till we caught people's attention, but not necessarily in a

1207
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:49,719
Speaker 4: good way.

1208
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, we'll see.

1209
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 4: What do you make of that.

1210
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:54,399
Speaker 2: I just going back to what I was saying before.

1211
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 2: I just looked it up. The original China Terrors that

1212
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:00,400
Speaker 2: he put on in his first administration were in initially

1213
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: somewhat underwater, and they became more popular, absolutely, and they

1214
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 2: became majority, you know, in favor, which is why also

1215
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 2: you see the Democrats that dropped it a similar position.

1216
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:13,239
Speaker 2: Biden continues that and does industrial policy, and I think

1217
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 2: it fits with what we were saying, Like people understand, okay,

1218
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 2: a lot of our jobs, you know, a lot of

1219
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 2: these industrial factory towns, a lot of the jobs left

1220
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 2: and are now in China, and so it was a

1221
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 2: very easily comprehensible story around this is why we're doing

1222
00:57:28,760 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 2: this now.

1223
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 4: You can still disagree with them.

1224
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: I don't think they you know, they didn't do much

1225
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 2: in terms of accomplishing their goal of restoring They needed

1226
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,440
Speaker 2: to be paired with industrial policy. There were issues there,

1227
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:41,240
Speaker 2: but people understood the story of what it was about.

1228
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 2: And I think we're even willing to, you know, have

1229
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 2: a more expensive washing machine or whatever.

1230
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 1: Not only that.

1231
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:48,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, all of the doom and gloom was fake.

1232
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 3: You know, we had hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs.

1233
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 3: I think the S and P five hundred was up

1234
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 3: by like twenty five percent.

1235
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:54,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1236
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 2: Now they did have to like basically bail out the

1237
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 2: farmers because of the retaliatory terrorists. So it's not like

1238
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 2: there was no impact, but address the address the problem

1239
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 2: right exactly. But it is interesting to me that there

1240
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 2: does seem to be some I mean, there's almost like

1241
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 2: a nuanced view of tariffs among the American public where, Yeah,

1242
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 2: when it was China and we understood this, okay, we

1243
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 2: could go along with that, but when you're talking about Canada, Mexico,

1244
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 2: and this doesn't make any sense, and why are they

1245
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:23,919
Speaker 2: being tariff more than China, and it's just across the board,

1246
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:27,479
Speaker 2: and why should avocados be have a tariff, then yeah,

1247
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 2: you're not going to have people like lining up to

1248
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,960
Speaker 2: pay more at the grocery store, more for their cars

1249
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:33,800
Speaker 2: or whatever.

1250
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 1: There you go.

1251
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 3: Well, we'll see how it all comes into practice for

1252
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 3: the next thirty days. We all have a stay. Okay,

1253
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 3: let's get to mass Doolar. Joining us now is Matt Stoler.

1254
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 3: He is the author of the Big Newsletter. Great friend

1255
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:48,000
Speaker 3: of the show. It's good to see you, sir, Thanks

1256
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 3: for joining us.

1257
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 6: Thanks for having me.

1258
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:50,920
Speaker 3: So you just wrote this. Let's go and put this

1259
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 3: up there on the screen. What did Trump just do

1260
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 3: on the tariffs? It's very relevant obviously this morning, now

1261
00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 3: that we no longer have China terifts. We don't have Canada,

1262
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 3: but we do have or sorry Canada tariffs or Mexico,

1263
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 3: but we do have China.

1264
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 6: I was like, wait, did I know?

1265
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: Like I got to look at Twitter, China is here.

1266
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 3: At least for now, we've got ten percent tariffs on China.

1267
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 3: But there's some big question marks of exactly what's in it.

1268
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 3: This is obviously falls within something an issue area that

1269
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 3: you care a lot about. Can you explain a bit

1270
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 3: to the audience and some of the.

1271
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 13: Importance of this yeah, I mean I so I wore

1272
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 13: a jacket with plaid to convey authority because this is

1273
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 13: going to be like very sort of technical.

1274
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 6: I'm going to do my best.

1275
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 13: Sure, So the situation is changing really quickly, so we

1276
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 13: don't one hundred percent know, but we'll know in a

1277
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 13: few days maybe. So there's this, uh so he put

1278
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 13: ten percent tariffs on stuff that's coming in from China, right,

1279
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,880
Speaker 13: and that is you know, there's a lot of industrial

1280
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 13: machinery and various other things coming in. But what is

1281
00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 13: interesting I think particularly interesting, and I think what a

1282
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:54,360
Speaker 13: lot of we were just talking about this camera, there's

1283
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 13: there's a there's a loophole that is more maybe more

1284
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 13: important than just the raw amount that he put on.

1285
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 13: And that loophole is called the dominimous Exemption to trade

1286
01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 13: or dominomous loophole under eight hundred dollars. When you bring

1287
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 13: something in, an individual does not have to have doesn't

1288
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 13: have to pay duties or tariffs or have that inspected.

1289
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 6: So this was set up.

1290
01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 13: If you've ever been abroad and you come back and

1291
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 13: you bought a sweater or whatever, when you're on the

1292
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 13: plane and you fill out like they're like DoD you

1293
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 13: buy anything, right, was it worth more than a certain

1294
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:28,320
Speaker 13: amount of money? You don't have to get that inspected,

1295
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,000
Speaker 13: You don't have to know the tariff codes. They don't

1296
01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 13: treat you like a commercial importer.

1297
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 8: Right.

1298
01:00:32,080 --> 01:00:33,240
Speaker 6: That's what Deminimus is.

1299
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 13: It's intended to let kind of tourists bring in a

1300
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 13: few things here or there. The problem is in the

1301
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:40,840
Speaker 13: nineteen nineties, or the dynamic is in the nineteen nineties.

1302
01:00:41,120 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 13: What they said is this can be used not just

1303
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 13: for tourists but for e commerce. Right, And they said,

1304
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 13: if you are an individual buying through saying like an

1305
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 13: Amazon or something like that, and they ship you something

1306
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 13: from China, that can come in and it's less than

1307
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 13: eight hundred dollars that can come in under this deminimus

1308
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 13: under the dominimous rules, no inspections, no duties, no tariffs,

1309
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 13: and it can come in through what's called informal entry,

1310
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 13: so it doesn't have to have a licensed customs broker,

1311
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 13: doesn't have to be bonded. Now, there are about a billion,

1312
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 13: maybe more than a billion packages coming in every year.

1313
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 13: I think the number is one point four billion, but

1314
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 13: who's counting from China every year?

1315
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 6: Under the dominimus loophole.

1316
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 13: So this is the basis of the business model of

1317
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 13: timu of Shane, of Fast Fashion.

1318
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:28,920
Speaker 6: And of Amazon.

1319
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:31,240
Speaker 13: Right, more than fifty percent of third party sellers, which

1320
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 13: is the majority of their sales, come directly from Chinese sellers.

1321
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 6: Right, So this is you know, kind of crazy. Right.

1322
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 13: So if you're a bicycle producer in this country, you

1323
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 13: have to compete with bikes coming in duty free, no tariffs,

1324
01:01:47,920 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 13: no inspections, so on and so forth. And that is

1325
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:54,240
Speaker 13: true kind of across the board. Now, what this Tariff

1326
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 13: Executive Order did is they said that dominimous exemption or

1327
01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:01,680
Speaker 13: that dominis loophole is going on sort of right, so

1328
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 13: they say, you now have to pay tariffs on any

1329
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 13: on everything, whether it's you know, twenty dollars or twenty

1330
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 13: thousand dollars. Okay, But what they haven't been clear on

1331
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:16,919
Speaker 13: is whether they're going to force the deminimous stuff, stuff

1332
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 13: that's less than eight hundred dollars to come in through

1333
01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:21,360
Speaker 13: a more formalized entry.

1334
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:21,680
Speaker 6: Right.

1335
01:02:21,720 --> 01:02:24,480
Speaker 13: Are they going to make you Are they going to

1336
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 13: make them put like Amazon or Tim mo Orshane. Are

1337
01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 13: they going to have to use a licensed customs broker?

1338
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:33,080
Speaker 13: Of you know, bonds, and if they do like it

1339
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 13: doesn't make sense to let you buy a three dollars

1340
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:37,000
Speaker 13: T shirt and then you have to do you know,

1341
01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 13: you have to get a licensed customs broker to handle

1342
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 13: that individual package. It makes more sense to, you know,

1343
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 13: bring in twenty thousand T shirts or one hundred thousand

1344
01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:49,000
Speaker 13: T shirts, bring them into US warehouse and then do

1345
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:52,919
Speaker 13: fulfillment from there. And so it's not clear what they're

1346
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 13: doing with the actual process, but that a tariff on

1347
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:58,240
Speaker 13: a three dollars T shirt doesn't matter ten percent two cares, right,

1348
01:02:58,360 --> 01:03:00,520
Speaker 13: especially because they're tariffing the whole sell price, so they're

1349
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 13: more likely tariffing you know, a dollar, right not or

1350
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:06,160
Speaker 13: thirty cents not the three dollars. So a ten percent

1351
01:03:06,200 --> 01:03:08,600
Speaker 13: tariff on thirty cents is three cents.

1352
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 6: Who cares.

1353
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 13: But if they're saying, all right, you have to change

1354
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:13,200
Speaker 13: your whole you know, it's just gonna be much more

1355
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 13: expensive to bring in an individual item. It doesn't matter

1356
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:18,320
Speaker 13: for a bicycle that's five hundred dollars. It doesn't really

1357
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 13: matter for a piece of industrial machinery. It does matter

1358
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:24,240
Speaker 13: for a T shirt or you know, a small you know,

1359
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:28,080
Speaker 13: pazz spend cord. Right, So that's and that's not There

1360
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:30,439
Speaker 13: are different versions of that floating around, and we don't

1361
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:32,400
Speaker 13: actually know what they're going to come down and say,

1362
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 13: because they're big logistical challenges. If you get rid of

1363
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,360
Speaker 13: the deminimus the tariff, just charging the tariff is not

1364
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 13: that big a deal, but the logistical question formal versus

1365
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 13: informal entry, so that I hope I haven't been too technical.

1366
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 3: No, but I think this is important because this is

1367
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 3: originally what I want to talk about is that these

1368
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:49,920
Speaker 3: businesses ten. I mean, we've got the super Bowl coming up, right.

1369
01:03:49,960 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 3: Do you remember how many TAMU commercials.

1370
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 6: Were in our last job, like a billion?

1371
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, these things have become massive companies and yeah, anyway,

1372
01:03:57,040 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 3: I that's that's why I wanted to talk to you

1373
01:03:58,640 --> 01:03:58,920
Speaker 3: about this.

1374
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 2: You focus on competition, and there's a definitely competition tie

1375
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:05,760
Speaker 2: in here. How does this disadvantage like small and medium

1376
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 2: size retailers over you know, gives Amazon and Timu and

1377
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 2: these like big players a huge leg up?

1378
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 13: Well, I mean, so it's like, if you are making

1379
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 13: a product here, right, you have to comply with all

1380
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:20,680
Speaker 13: environmental laws. You can't use slave labor. There's like a

1381
01:04:20,680 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 13: bunch of stuff you can't estensibly can't do right, and

1382
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:26,920
Speaker 13: if you are, you know, we don't have jurisdiction in

1383
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:30,440
Speaker 13: China or other countries. And but so the way we

1384
01:04:30,520 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 13: handle that is through the customs procedure, right, so that

1385
01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:38,360
Speaker 13: you know, you're not allowed to bring in goods and

1386
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:41,920
Speaker 13: products where they are using certain techniques like human trafficking

1387
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 13: or whatever. If they don't do any inspections, right, or

1388
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 13: if they don't do you know, they are not charging tariffs,

1389
01:04:50,120 --> 01:04:52,640
Speaker 13: even if there's a tariff on the books, but they're

1390
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:55,920
Speaker 13: not charging it, then you can bring all those goods

1391
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 13: in without any you know, like there's no no, there's

1392
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 13: no you know, we were just you're just mentioning the nicotine.

1393
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 13: I didn't actually know about that, but like that was

1394
01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:09,360
Speaker 13: a good example, right where you're competing against companies that

1395
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 13: don't have to adhere to the same standards that you

1396
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 13: do in this country.

1397
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:15,600
Speaker 6: And that's that's just unfair. Right.

1398
01:05:15,640 --> 01:05:17,800
Speaker 13: So a lot of like the bicycle manufacturers are one

1399
01:05:17,840 --> 01:05:21,360
Speaker 13: of the coalition groups or bike stores, they are one

1400
01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 13: of the groups that actually it's not just manufacturers, it's

1401
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 13: stores too, right, because if you're importing a bike from China. Right,

1402
01:05:28,640 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 13: if you import it directly to an end consumer, it's

1403
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:35,200
Speaker 13: cheaper than if you bring it to a store and

1404
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:37,800
Speaker 13: sell it to because the store is going to bring in,

1405
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 13: you know, one hundred bikes, so they don't get access

1406
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:44,160
Speaker 13: to the dominimus, the dominus duty free, terra free, so

1407
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 13: there are It actually just changes the retail environment in

1408
01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:51,560
Speaker 13: the US and makes, you know, harms the little guy

1409
01:05:51,680 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 13: in all sorts of different ways. The other part of

1410
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:56,480
Speaker 13: it that I think is kind of crazy is that

1411
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 13: you have you know, a billion plus packages coming in,

1412
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:02,720
Speaker 13: so that's like four million packages every day, and there's

1413
01:06:02,720 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 13: a ton of fentanyl in these packages. Right, there's going

1414
01:06:05,160 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 13: uninspected and it's brought here by our own post office. Right,

1415
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 13: So there's a lot of conversations about, oh, there's all

1416
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:12,440
Speaker 13: this fentanyl coming in from Mexico. Right, That's what a

1417
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:16,040
Speaker 13: lot of Republicans like to talk about. In Democrats too,

1418
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 13: but mostly it's a Republican thing. But really what's happening

1419
01:06:18,960 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 13: is I mean, let's not say there isn't fentyl coming

1420
01:06:21,200 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 13: in from Mexico. But one of the things they say is, well,

1421
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:28,160
Speaker 13: we haven't, we haven't seized any fentanyl coming in from

1422
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:31,240
Speaker 13: these packages in China, and so we know it's coming.

1423
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:32,920
Speaker 6: We're seizing a lot from Mexico.

1424
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,200
Speaker 13: It's like, well, that's because no one's looking, yes, But

1425
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 13: when they start to look, and they have started to

1426
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:39,800
Speaker 13: do some pilot programs, they're finding a ton of fentyl

1427
01:06:39,800 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 13: coming in through, you know, the these packages, and so

1428
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 13: it's a really good idea to actually just start bringing

1429
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 13: them through through normal customs procedures so that we can

1430
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 13: apply the same techniques that we use to inspect everything

1431
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:53,600
Speaker 13: else for this really important.

1432
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 2: How does you know we all watch the inauguration. Jeff

1433
01:06:56,360 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 2: Bezos is you know, is Trump's new bud. His wife

1434
01:07:01,000 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 2: also was quite a notably there a lot a lot

1435
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:06,840
Speaker 2: to say about her. You know, how does his influence

1436
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:08,080
Speaker 2: tie into all of this?

1437
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 13: Well, it's interesting because because this has implications. So the

1438
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 13: tariffs have implications for Apple as well, because they didn't

1439
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:16,200
Speaker 13: put an exemption into the iPhone, right, which you know,

1440
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:19,120
Speaker 13: I was just listening to CNBC and they were they

1441
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 13: were talking about how this is going to take three

1442
01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:24,200
Speaker 13: percent of Apple's profits, right, because they are you know,

1443
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:26,240
Speaker 13: what do they do they absorb the extra tariff? Do

1444
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 13: they raise prices? And annoyed Trump, like, what do they do?

1445
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 13: They change their supply chains. Someone's got to pay. And

1446
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:33,800
Speaker 13: this is I think a much bigger deal for Amazon

1447
01:07:34,440 --> 01:07:37,040
Speaker 13: than Apple. But it's a big deal for Apple. It's

1448
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 13: also actually, weirdly a big deal for Meta because you know,

1449
01:07:40,560 --> 01:07:43,920
Speaker 13: the fast fashioned Chinese groups were spending billions of dollars

1450
01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:47,920
Speaker 13: on advertising. So this is the one where maybe like

1451
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 13: Google and Microsoft or not actually like super affected by it,

1452
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 13: but the other three are. And I think it says

1453
01:07:54,200 --> 01:07:58,440
Speaker 13: that these companies have some levels of influence on Trump,

1454
01:07:59,080 --> 01:08:02,680
Speaker 13: particularly on you know, when they're negotiating with foreign countries.

1455
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:04,960
Speaker 13: If he feels that those foreign countries are trying to

1456
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 13: regulate American companies, he will he will fight for that.

1457
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:10,120
Speaker 6: But he's not.

1458
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:14,160
Speaker 13: It doesn't look like he's doing explicit favors for these

1459
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 13: companies yet. And I'll say one other piece, this is

1460
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:19,639
Speaker 13: not about trade, but yesterday there was an argument having

1461
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 13: to do with a case against Googles, an anti trust

1462
01:08:22,160 --> 01:08:25,000
Speaker 13: case against Google brought by Epic Games. So not a

1463
01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:28,599
Speaker 13: government case, but the Anti Trust Division because the government

1464
01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:31,240
Speaker 13: can intervene in private cases if they think the state

1465
01:08:31,280 --> 01:08:34,360
Speaker 13: has an interest. The government actually had a lawyer there

1466
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:38,759
Speaker 13: and argued for you know, basically Google was in the wrong,

1467
01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:43,160
Speaker 13: and you know that is an indication that this the

1468
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 13: anter Trust Division could have said, you're not doing that anymore. Right,

1469
01:08:45,560 --> 01:08:48,200
Speaker 13: like they've been telling regulators and enforced all of the government,

1470
01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:50,479
Speaker 13: we're totally changing things. They haven't done that with the

1471
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:53,720
Speaker 13: Anti Trust Division in big tech. So this is a

1472
01:08:53,760 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 13: small hint of that. So this is really it's like,

1473
01:08:57,800 --> 01:08:59,680
Speaker 13: I don't know what to think because I see a

1474
01:08:59,680 --> 01:09:02,479
Speaker 13: lot of I'm not I don't trust Trump, I mean candid,

1475
01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:05,320
Speaker 13: I'm a Democrat, I am I'm very skeptical. I see

1476
01:09:05,360 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 13: a lot of corporate favoritism. You guys talk about it,

1477
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:12,320
Speaker 13: but some of these areas like big tech's not getting

1478
01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:13,200
Speaker 13: exactly what they want.