1 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: In the movie biz, there's something called the false defeat. 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 1: It's a moment towards the end of a movie when 3 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: things are going really well, too well. The heroes just 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 1: had a victory and the finish line is in sight, 5 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: and then a grave challenge presents itself, one that seems 6 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: so insurmountable that for a brief moment, the audience can't 7 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: even fathom a happy ending. It's like in Sleepless in 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: Seattle when Annie is rushing to the top of the 9 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: Empire State Building, but it's too late because Sam and 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: Jonah are already in the elevator on their way down. 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, man, empty. 12 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: It's like in Home Alone when after Kevin absolutely roasts 13 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: Harry and Marv with all his booby traps, they finally catch. 14 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: Up with him high a pal be out smart this time. 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: It's like when Our Fearless History slewth Nate Jones discovered 16 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: that there was a top secret piffy app report one 17 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: hundred pages long, all about Able Larcher, and then found 18 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: out that it would take decades to unseal, and he 19 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: probably wouldn't see it in his lifetime. 20 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 4: We were in big trouble. 21 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: Nate had waited eight years for his piffy app foya. 22 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: When he finally. 23 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 4: Faced the music, it just wasn't working. 24 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: It was never gonna happen. 25 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 5: Just kidding. 26 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: Another thing about a false defeat. The hero always finds 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: a way. 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 4: Is never the end of the road. 29 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: I learned that avoid Nate filing a FOYA isn't the 30 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 1: only way to get a secret document declassified. There's one 31 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: other path, but it's a real hail Mary. 32 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 4: Called Mandatory Declassification. 33 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: Review aka MDR aka ice CAP. Don't ask me why. 34 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: Ice CAP is effectively a side door into the government vaults. 35 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 4: It's a small born of one representative of all of 36 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 4: the intelligence agencies sitting at the National Archives. 37 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: Meaning instead of each agency taking years to approve declassification 38 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: one by one, all the agencies sit down in a 39 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: room and review it together at the same time. 40 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 4: For a historian, it's kind of like the hottest ticket 41 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 4: in town. 42 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're talking a hotter ticket than macho Man Randy 43 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: Savage versus hul Kogan WrestleMania five, nineteen eighty nine. But 44 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: there's a catch. If you want to try to get 45 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: those ice Cap tickets, you have to withdraw your foyas first. 46 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: You can't do both, which meant Nate would need to 47 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 1: withdraw a FOYA that was already eight years in progress. 48 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: Then if ice Cap declined to review the pifyab, he'd 49 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: have to start all over again, eight years down the drain. 50 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: But in the wise words of a risky Tom. 51 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 6: Cruise, sometimes you gotta say what the fuck make you move? 52 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 4: So we decided we are going to take a shot 53 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 4: and do MDR and Gopher broke. If ice Cap can't 54 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 4: do it, we're pretty screwed. 55 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: All right, my listeners, We have arrived at the final chapter, 56 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: and we've had quite a ride here, haven't we. First 57 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: we heard about how Reagan's tough guy speeches plus a 58 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: new deployment of super fast earth destoring weapons, fueled the 59 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: Soviets paranoia to the point that they convinced themselves the 60 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: US was going to nuke them at precisely the same 61 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: time NATO was rehearsing a nuclear war. But at the 62 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: last minute, we were all saved by a couple of 63 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: spies and Lieutenant General Leonard Perutz, who, in a tense moment, 64 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: kept a cool head. But then we learned that there 65 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: isn't a record of the so called war scare in 66 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: Eastern archives that two of the main eye witnesses might 67 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: be kind of unreliable, and that maybe the story of 68 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: Able Archer eighty three is nothing more than a Cold 69 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 1: War myth. But one stone remains unturned the piffy. This 70 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,919 Speaker 1: episode we take one more shot at the most elusive 71 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 1: facet of history, the truth. I'm at Helms and this 72 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:39,119 Speaker 1: is the season finale of Snaffoo Able Archer eighty three. 73 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: One day in twenty fifteen, Nate Jones woke up for work. 74 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: It was his thirty second birthday. He took his time 75 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: moseying into the office. 76 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 4: Probably about ten o'clock. I guess nicely might be in 77 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 4: a historian, you can't go to work a little later. 78 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: It was an ordinary day, save for a few happy birthdays, 79 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,119 Speaker 1: maybe a cupcake or two, and of course that thirty 80 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: dollars check from Graham, which is so nice but never 81 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,919 Speaker 1: seemed to keep up with the pace of inflation. Come on, grandma. 82 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: Nate settled in at his desk, unaware that the best 83 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: birthday president of all time was about to arrive certified delivery, 84 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 1: and it went through the mail slit. 85 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 4: So there's kind of a thud onto the floor. 86 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: Nate Jones wondered, what could. 87 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 4: It be that was about one hundred pages thick with 88 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 4: government and dress government stamps. So I knew it might 89 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 4: be good. So went and looked at it and then 90 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 4: saw that it was from ice Cap. My heart started 91 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 4: beating a little bit and ripped it open and saw 92 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 4: the title. 93 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: The Soviet War Scare President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, also 94 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: known as Piffy AM. 95 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 4: I still remember. It had a bright red stamp, had 96 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 4: seven code words. 97 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 1: Top secret, wintel, no FRON, no contract, orcn Umbra, gamma. 98 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 4: And all seven of them had a line through them 99 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 4: tick tick tick tick tick tick tick, meaning that they 100 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 4: were no longer classified. 101 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: This is it. The report to end all reports? Was 102 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: able Archer a Cold War myth like some historians believed, 103 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: a propaganda plot like the CIA concluded in the eighties, 104 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 1: or a terrifying nuclear near myss like Leonard Perutz had 105 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: insisted for so many decades. Nate nervously began to flip 106 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 1: through the Piffy app hoping praying that what he was 107 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: holding was not one hundred percent redacted. 108 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 4: And I flipped through and I saw way more text 109 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 4: than redactions, and I said, oh my God, this is it. 110 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 4: And then I actually read it for the content and 111 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 4: I said, oh my god, this is revealing the secrets 112 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 4: that I was so curious about. 113 00:06:56,320 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: Finally clarity. All right, let's break it all down, shall we. 114 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: The report confirmed a lot of things that Nate had 115 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: already figured out from other sources, like those planes in 116 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: East Germany loaded up with nukes. But there was some 117 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: new stuff too. 118 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 4: There's details about flights and helicopter flights, probably for surveillance 119 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 4: of able Archer. 120 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: The Soviets conducted over thirty six reconnaissance flights monitoring able Archer. 121 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: The report said that even though the Soviets monitored able 122 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: archer every year, this was more reconnaissance than any year before. 123 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: And apart from these flights, all other Soviet flights were grounded. 124 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: Why is that important? The report author speculates that this 125 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: was in order to have as many aircraft as possible 126 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: at the ready for combat. 127 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 4: Said that Soviet military reaction hadn't been like this since 128 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 4: World War Two. 129 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: For example, the Soviets stopped production at their tractor factory 130 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: and started using it to build tanks. The last time 131 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: they did that was during World War Two. The report 132 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: also pointed to the Soviet's own nuclear wargames as evidence 133 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: that they genuinely believed NATO might launch a surprise nuclear attack. 134 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: The wargame they're talking about is called Druzeba, which, according 135 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: to Google, translates to Friendship. That's right, a wargame called friendship. 136 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: Who says that Soviets don't have a sense of humor anyway. 137 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: In the years after Able Archer eighty three, in nineteen 138 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: eighty five, eighty six, and eighty seven, the Druzebil wargame 139 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: scripts all began the same way, with NATO launching a 140 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: surprise nuclear attack during Autumn Forge, which is the NATO 141 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: exercise that ends with Able Archer. Ultimately, the Able Archer mystery, 142 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: the mystery of how close we really were to all 143 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: dying that night in nineteen eighty three, It really comes 144 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: down to one question. How genuine was the Soviets fear 145 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: that the US was going to attack them? Were they 146 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: terrified finger hovering over the button or were they pretending 147 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: to be terrified. Well, the pifyab's take was this. 148 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 4: They concluded that during Naval Archer that US actions and 149 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 4: Soviet actions put the world on hair trigger away from 150 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 4: nuclear war. 151 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: They said knowing what we know now, it's very possible 152 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: the Soviets were genuinely afraid that an attack was imminent, 153 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: and they may have prepared their own nuclear weapons to 154 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,839 Speaker 1: fire first. 155 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 4: And I agree with this conclusion that the war scare 156 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 4: was real and the war scare was dangerous. 157 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: Nate immediately wrote up a summary and the next day 158 00:09:54,880 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: he published the declassified Pifyab for all the world to see. 159 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,319 Speaker 4: I won't say I cried, but my eyes did get 160 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 4: a little misty. I've had a lot of good birthdays, 161 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 4: but that one might. 162 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: Take the cake. Happy birthday, buddy. The End You music 163 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: roll credits SNAFU was a production of iHeartRadio, Film, Nation Entertainment, 164 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: and Pacific Electric Picture Company. I'm kidding, it's not the 165 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 1: end people. There's always a twist. Nate's Piffy ab win 166 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: was supposed to be our hero's victory against all odds. 167 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: The Foyer Warrior fought for the Piffy ab Report and 168 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 1: finally he solved the able Archer mystery once and for all. 169 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: But it turns out this might be a false victory 170 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: after the false defeat, or something like that, because even 171 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 1: though Nate was convinced. 172 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 4: Very good analysis very good use of facts. 173 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: Not everyone would agree. You see in the PIFYAB reports 174 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 1: one hundred pages, it didn't actually claim to solve the 175 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: mystery of Able Archer. It didn't say what definitely happened 176 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 1: that night. It used a lot of equivocating phrases like 177 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: may have and very possible. And the truth is, the 178 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 1: conclusions that are drawn from the Piffyab will differ depending 179 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: on who's reading it. 180 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 5: The first time I read the PIFFIAB report was when 181 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 5: the National Security Archive managed to get a copy of it. 182 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 1: This is Ben Fisher. He's the CIA historian who brought 183 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 1: the Able Archer story into the public eye in the 184 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 1: late nineties, the one who convinced the intelligence community at 185 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: large that Able Archer may have been much more than 186 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 1: a propaganda plot. So you may be surprised to hear 187 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: that by the time the PIFYAB report came out, Ben 188 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: had this to say about it. 189 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 5: I think that the Piffyab study was an exaggeration. 190 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: I know, it's surprising that the guy who changed everyone's 191 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: mind about Able Archer would say such a blasphemous thing 192 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: in light of you know, everything we've talked about on 193 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: this show, The war mongering speeches, the euro Missiles Operation Ryan, 194 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 1: the stories of Oli Gordievsky and ryder Up, the airplanes 195 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: on alert with nukes potentially loaded, Missile commanders called in 196 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: for emergency shifts. Not to mention the new details from 197 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: the PIFYAB report, reconnaissance flights, tank production, and Soviet nuclear 198 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: war games. 199 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 5: But nonetheless I began to move away from the countdown 200 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 5: to armageddon. The Abel Archer alert was a night we 201 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 5: almost went to war. 202 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: Ben says. Despite the way it looks, there could be 203 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 1: another reasonable explanation for everything. Let's start with the Soviet's 204 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: military mobilization during Able Archer. 205 00:12:55,640 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 5: Shall we Especially during the Able Archer Alert, the Soviets 206 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 5: did take certain actions. The strip alert for the aircraft 207 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 5: is one thing. They may have put some of their 208 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 5: forces on alert. Senior officials may have repaired to their 209 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 5: underground bunkers. How do I interpret this? I think it's 210 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 5: what we call signaling. It's sending messages to the other 211 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 5: side by doing things, rather than saying things. 212 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: Like, hey, we see you doing your big exercise over there. 213 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: We're watching and we're ready, so don't try any funny business. 214 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: It's like the wargame equivalent of that like I'm watching 215 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: you thing where you point at your eyes and then 216 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: point at the other guy's eyes and then point at 217 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 1: your eyes again. Ben says that if the Soviets were 218 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: truly on the brink, we should be seeing a lot 219 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: more military activity than we did, Entire armies at the ready, 220 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: navy ships, submarines and tanks, anything smaller just signaling. Okay, So, 221 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: what's beIN's take on our two spies, you know, the 222 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: two men who just so happened to have their own 223 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: stories about the Soviets getting really freaked out during Able Archer. 224 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 7: Well, it was a flush telegram, It wasn't super urgent telegram. 225 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 4: Do you remember sending a message in there? 226 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 5: I remember sending You know, we always have this problem 227 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 5: with people who do who defect, you know, how much 228 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 5: of what they say is true, how much of it it's 229 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 5: not true, how much of it is slanted in a 230 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 5: certain direction. 231 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: We reached out to both Gordiovski and Ruugh to try 232 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: to get to the bottom of all this. Oleg Gordievsky 233 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 1: was unavailable due to his health, plus the fact that 234 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: he's in a safe house hiding from Putin's assassins, and 235 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: we just never heard back from Rhina Rup, so ultimately 236 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: we can't ask them these questions. But for what it's worth, 237 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: Ben doesn't think Oleg Gordievsky is a liar. 238 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 5: Oliah Gordiowsky was absolutely the best Soviet agent of the 239 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 5: Cold War. I've met him a couple of times. A 240 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 5: good man who risked his life. Obviously, I think he 241 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 5: reported what he believed and what he saw and what 242 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 5: he heard. There's a bigger question of what about the 243 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 5: people above him. I mean, to what extent were they serious? 244 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: By they? Ben means the KGB leaders who under Operation 245 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: Ryan commanded their spies in the West to report back 246 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 1: any indication of NATO war preparation. You remember that proverbial 247 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: tic tac toe board of death the batshit crazy nuclear 248 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: crystal ball. But Ben thinks Operation Ryan may have actually 249 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: been more down to earth, that the Soviets were just 250 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: doing due diligence in a period of heightened nuclear tension. 251 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 5: Simple they were concerned that they balance the power was 252 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 5: tipping against them. They wanted to be prepared for if 253 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 5: and when that happened. 254 00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, they did send messages to their spies saying the 255 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: adversary could attack us at any moment, But maybe they 256 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: were just saying that to encourage thorough espionage. 257 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 5: Sevie Union's following apart. They've got all kinds of problems. 258 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 5: You need to keep the morale of your troops up. 259 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 5: How do you do this, Well, you give them a task, 260 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 5: and the task is to go out and collect information 261 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 5: related to the possibility of a surprise nuclear missile attack 262 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 5: on the Soviet Union. Okay, this gives people something to do. 263 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: So back to the central question. Just how close of 264 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: a call was a larger How scared were the Soviets. 265 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 5: I'm from Oklahoma, I'm a country boy. As a phrase, 266 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 5: I use that they were worried, but they weren't shaking 267 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 5: in their boots. 268 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: Ben believes that there was at least some element of 269 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: truth to the Soviet fear in nineteen eighty three. If 270 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: they weren't afraid at all, they wouldn't have shot down 271 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: that Korean Airlines flight. If they weren't afraid at all, 272 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: they wouldn't have spent billions of dollars building underground bunkers. 273 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,360 Speaker 1: If they weren't afraid at all, they wouldn't have practiced 274 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: a nuclear wargame. That begins with NATO attacking undercover of 275 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 1: Autumn Forge. So yeah, they were scared, but they weren't 276 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: quote shaken in their boots. In other words, Ben doesn't 277 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 1: think Yuri and drop Off was anywhere close to pushing 278 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: that button. 279 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 5: It was a serious matter, but it wasn't almost the 280 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 5: end of the world. 281 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: That said, Ben admits he doesn't know for sure. 282 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 5: I realized how complex it is. There's no hard and 283 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 5: fast answer. It's a very marky world and rarely does 284 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 5: it offer concrete evidence of this or that. And that's 285 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 5: why you have intellvisionce failures. It's not scientific, it's an arts, 286 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 5: not science. 287 00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: Hold on, Ben, that's kind of terrifying. These intelligence agencies 288 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: hold the fate of the world in their hands, and 289 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: you're telling me there's rarely concrete evidence of this or that. 290 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: It's an art. 291 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 5: Intelligent and honest people on both sides of the same issue. 292 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 5: People are not bad because they have one point of 293 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 5: view or not good because they have another point of view. 294 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 5: They're human beings struggling to make sense of what's going 295 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 5: on around them. 296 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 1: The Able Archer mystery is riddled with maddening contradictions. As 297 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: a result, rational people can look at the same information 298 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: and draw startlingly different conclusions. 299 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 4: No matter what's found, I think that the debate will continue. 300 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 4: That's history arguing both sides. What the best evidence you 301 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 4: have in. 302 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: The end Able Archer is a rorshack test. In other words, 303 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: how you see it might just be a reflection of 304 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: your personality, how optimistic or cynical or fearful you might be. 305 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: I don't know if you ask me, No matter how 306 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 1: it makes you feel, the fact that intelligent people can 307 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: still argue about how close we came to armageddon means 308 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 1: we came too damn close. It was June of nineteen 309 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: eighty four, about seven months after Able Archer, when Ronald 310 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: Reagan took the Able Archer Rorschach test himself. 311 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 6: While we go on believing that the Soviets are blotting 312 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 6: against us and mean us harm, maybe they are scared 313 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 6: of us and think we are a threat. 314 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: This is an entry from his diary. It was written 315 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: right around the same time that Reagan first read a 316 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: detailed report listing the specifics of the Soviet reaction to 317 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 1: Abel Archer, and even though his own CIA analysts claimed 318 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 1: that there was absolutely nothing to worry about, that these 319 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 1: Soviet reactions were all part of a propaganda campaign that 320 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: wasn't Reagan's takeaway. To him, it seemed possible that the 321 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 1: Soviets were preparing for war on his watch without his knowing. 322 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: In the end, Reagan ignored the advice of his own analysts. 323 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: He believed that the able Archer war scare was quote 324 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 1: very scary. He decides to set up a face to 325 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 1: face meeting with the new Soviet leader, the first time 326 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: he would do this in over three years of being president. 327 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 1: He writes, and I quote, I. 328 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 8: Haven't got feeling we should do this, no shit. So 329 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 8: this is why I tell people the war scare is 330 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 8: actually a good news story. 331 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 5: Okay, there's always a room for miscalculation, there's always a 332 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 5: room for hubris, there's always a room for mistakes. But 333 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 5: what came out of the war scare, well, President Reagan 334 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 5: learned for the first time in his life that this 335 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 5: helped mes a're scared of us, And from that you 336 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 5: can or a straight line to his second term, where 337 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 5: he says he wanted to be known not as the 338 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 5: man who waits to coal warp, but the man who 339 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 5: would end it. And he realized that to do this 340 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 5: he was going to have to deal with the Soviet leaders. 341 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 5: He was going to have to talk to them. 342 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 3: This is tomorrow morning's Washington Post. 343 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 5: Reagan Gorbachev signed. 344 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 3: Nuclear missile treaty. As you can see, it is very 345 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 3: big news here in the United States. 346 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: On December eighth, nineteen eighty seven, over four years after 347 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:39,479 Speaker 1: able Archer, President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev signed 348 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: the historic Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty AKAINF. 349 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 9: This ceremony and the treaty we're signing today are both 350 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 9: excellent examples of the rewards of patients. On the Soviet side, 351 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 9: over fifteen hundred deployed warheads will be removed. On our side, 352 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 9: our entire complement of pershing to and ground launched cruise missiles, 353 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 9: with some four hundred deployed warheads, will all be destroyed. 354 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 5: It's almost a miracle in some ways, because eventually in 355 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 5: Italy to the end of the Cold War. 356 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: At the signing of the i in F, the entire 357 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 1: globe heaved a giant sigh of relief. At last, the 358 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 1: Cold War was coming to an end. Now, I wish 359 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: I could say that at this point we collectively threw 360 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: aside all of the geopolitical theater that led us to 361 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,639 Speaker 1: able our t eighty three, that we got smarter, that 362 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: we approached the nuclear dilemma with a little more humility 363 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 1: and a little less trash talking. But unfortunately that's not 364 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 1: what happened. 365 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 3: As President Winston Churchill once said that trying to maintain 366 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 3: a good relationship with a communist was not unlike trying 367 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 3: to woo a crocodile. When it opened its mouth, you 368 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 3: never could be quite certain whether it was trying to 369 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 3: smile or eat you up. 370 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 1: This is from an interview with Reagan after news about 371 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: the inf treaty broke. You may or may not be 372 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 1: surprised to hear that he got a lot of criticism 373 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: from his own party about being too weak. 374 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 3: Americans respect you, love you, and pulling for you, with 375 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 3: their concerned that perhaps you are going to or already 376 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 3: have allowed Gorbachev to eat you and us up. 377 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 9: Well, I haven't changed from the time when I made 378 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 9: a speech about an evil empire, evil empire, evil empire. 379 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 1: Ere Certain phrases come to mind at a time like this. 380 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 1: Old habits die hard. You can't teach an old dog 381 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: new tricks. Nancy's astrologer made me do it. You see, 382 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: even after Ronald Reagan had his able Archer epiphany, even 383 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: after he reached across the Iron Curtain and negotiated a 384 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: groundbreaking treaty publicly, he wasn't prepared to let go of 385 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: his tough guy persona. In other words, according to Reagan, 386 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: the Cold War didn't simply end through a mutual detente. 387 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: He the American cowboy had finally conquered the evil Communist villain, 388 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: and the US had won the Cold War with pure 389 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: brute strength. 390 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 10: The men in those positions are so confident. 391 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: Here's Jeffrey Lewis talking about the people in power during 392 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:25,880 Speaker 1: the Cold War. 393 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 10: They believe that they are like the masters of the universe, 394 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 10: and that they are in complete and total control, and 395 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 10: nothing will happen without them allowing it to happen. And 396 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 10: that you're this incredibly clever brinksman who will always pull 397 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 10: back at the last moment because you know what you're doing, 398 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 10: because you don't know what the fuck you're doing. 399 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: Thank you, Jeffrey. And that brings me to my next 400 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 1: point where it all went wrong. 401 00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 4: I was almost a scolding to. 402 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 1: That's Nate Jones again. He's talking about the piffyab the 403 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 1: report chronicled the events leading up to Able Archer in 404 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,120 Speaker 1: a lot of detail, and it tried to identify all 405 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 1: the mistakes that allowed things to get to that point. 406 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,399 Speaker 1: The idea was maybe if we can find what went wrong, 407 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 1: we could avoid I don't know, accidentally stumbling into a 408 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: nuclear war moving forward. And in the end the authors 409 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 1: focus on one root cause of the whole snaffu, what 410 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,440 Speaker 1: they call over confidence. 411 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 4: Essentially saying that the intelligence did not accurately present the 412 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 4: picture of the danger at the time. 413 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,400 Speaker 1: The report says, look, even with the benefit of hindsight 414 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: and access to more intel than ever before, we still 415 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,680 Speaker 1: don't know exactly what happened that night. And back then 416 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,680 Speaker 1: the CIA had so much less information, and yet their 417 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 1: conclusion was very specific and very confident that it was 418 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: all propaganda. But how could they have known that, Well, 419 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: they simply couldn't have, not with one hundred percent certainty. 420 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 4: There is too much confidence that a nuclear war can 421 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 4: never happen, or that the Soviets would never think that. 422 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: The report says, the CIA analysts in the eighties should 423 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: have entertained all possible explanations. You know, maybe it's propaganda, 424 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 1: or maybe the Earth is hurtling towards imminent demise, or 425 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 1: at the very least they could have reevaluated as new 426 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 1: intel came in. Instead, they just kept doubling down again 427 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 1: and again, and EPIFIAB says that was insanely risky. 428 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 4: With something with such catastrophic results, even if the risk 429 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 4: is low as an unacceptable risk. 430 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 1: Exactly because it's not just the immediate damage of a 431 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 1: nuclear explosion, the tens of millions of people instantaneously incinerated 432 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 1: after the initial blast, there's a domino effect. A recent 433 00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 1: study said that if only three percent of today's nuclear 434 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: stockpile was used in a nuclear exchange, there'd be firestorms, 435 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: soot rising into the atmosphere to block the sun, we'd 436 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: plummet into an ice age, lose a majority of our 437 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,919 Speaker 1: food production, and in the end, an estimated one third 438 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 1: of the world's population would die from starvation. So yeah, 439 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:28,120 Speaker 1: I'd say the stakes are high. But alas the report 440 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 1: couldn't really pinpoint a specific blunder that caused this whole mess. 441 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: There's no single incident where somebody got definitive proof of 442 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: an impending nuclear war and then shredded the document or 443 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:45,120 Speaker 1: aid it or something. In the end, the errors were psychological. 444 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: The real mistake hubris refusing to accept the possibility of 445 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:52,439 Speaker 1: being wrong. 446 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 11: We've got to always be very careful to make sure 447 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 11: that we're not just seeing what we want to see, 448 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 11: or you know what we're frightened of seeing, or you 449 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 11: know what we don't want to see. We're pushing back 450 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 11: against it, and that we've also it's got to kind 451 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 11: of question the context. 452 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,360 Speaker 1: This is Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. 453 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 1: She's a former member of the National Security Council with 454 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: an expertise in Russian affairs. Fianna says, there's a common 455 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 1: pitfall in human psychology. It shows up everywhere, from marital 456 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:28,480 Speaker 1: spats to geopolitical standoffs, and it's called mirror imaging. 457 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,639 Speaker 11: Mirror imaging, you know, projecting your own rationale, failing to 458 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,160 Speaker 11: really understand the perspective of the other and where they're 459 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,960 Speaker 11: coming from, and to really kind of get into a 460 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 11: deeper understanding of the mindsets of the individuals. 461 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 1: Mirror imaging happens when two parties have trouble understanding each other, 462 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: so their minds fill in the blanks and they project 463 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: their own logic onto the other. 464 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 11: Because you try to think about, well, what would I 465 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,239 Speaker 11: do what's rational for me? But you're not living in 466 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 11: that context, and you don't fully understand what the information 467 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 11: on the other side house at their fingertips, And ultimately, 468 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 11: we never fully understand the other's perspective, and we always 469 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 11: engage in quite a lot of mirror imaging. 470 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan and his intelligence analysts knew that the United 471 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: States would never start a nuclear war with the Soviet Union, 472 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 1: and they assumed that Yuri and drop Off and the 473 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: rest of the Soviets knew this. The US officials couldn't 474 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: conceive of a reality where the Soviets would think anything different. Meanwhile, 475 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union had a history of sneak attacking other 476 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: countries under cover of military exercise, and so to them, 477 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: this was a completely plausible strategy. For the Americans, Reagan 478 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 1: and a drop Off never spoke in person or on 479 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 1: the phone, not once, but they made plenty of assumptions 480 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: about one another, and those assumptions cascaded into a slew 481 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: of miscalculations. 482 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 10: The fact of the nuclear age is that you share 483 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 10: interests with your enemy and you have to talk to them, 484 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 10: and that stuff is just like so unpopular the idea 485 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 10: of talking to your mortal enemy is unthinkable, and to 486 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 10: be fair, it's unpopular today when people talk about like well, 487 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 10: maybe we should negotiate with the Chinese, or maybe we 488 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 10: should like strike a deal with the Iranians. There is 489 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 10: a huge outcry that we're somehow contaminating ourselves or staining 490 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 10: our legacy by talking to these evil people. It is 491 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 10: so much easier to just tell them to blow off 492 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 10: and build some more bombs. And it is absolutely crazy 493 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 10: to me that people who do not want to talk 494 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,719 Speaker 10: to the enemy are perfectly happy to live in that 495 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 10: kind of arrangement. Like talking to them is like so 496 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 10: much less scary, Like they have little cookies and tea, 497 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 10: and you know, it's you go see, like a cultural 498 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 10: thing after the it's nice. It's a way less scary 499 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 10: than do clear. 500 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: To me personally, I'm all about the cookies and tea. 501 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 10: The answer is like, stop imagining that you can use 502 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 10: force in this way. 503 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 1: Well, at least we learned from it, right Jeffrey, Hey, Yeah, 504 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 1: there's no learning. 505 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 10: I mean, not only is there no learning, there was 506 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 10: a refusal to accept it happened at the time, and 507 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 10: those of us who were like you, know you, people 508 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 10: really almost fucked up, Like people don't want to hear that. 509 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 10: So the lesson that I draw from it is that 510 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 10: people don't learn that we make the same mistake over 511 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 10: and over again, just a tragedy. 512 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 11: Basically where we are now we haven't learned enough from 513 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 11: those previous crises. 514 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 1: Here's Fiona Hill again. She was in Moscow training as 515 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 1: a translator in nineteen eighty eight, just after Reagan and 516 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 1: Gorbachev signed the IF Treaty. She recalls watching as the 517 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 1: two heads of state strolled through Red Square in a 518 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 1: public display of diplomacy. 519 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 11: It was just mind blowing and just an amazing fitting. 520 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 11: The world had turned, the access of the world had turned, 521 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 11: and maybe, maybe, just maybe, after these war scares and 522 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 11: all of this misunderstanding of each other, we were going 523 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 11: to go off to a different path what we did 524 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 11: for a while. But they're not so much. 525 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: The IF Treaty that both leaders signed that year reduced 526 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:21,600 Speaker 1: the world's nuclear stockpile by thousands, but today there are 527 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 1: still more than twelve thousand nuclear weapons, some big, some small, 528 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 1: some just right. No, I'm kidding, none of them are 529 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 1: just right. They're all terrifying, and still plenty enough to 530 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 1: destroy the world then and twenty nineteen the United States 531 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: withdrew from the IONF treaty all together. 532 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 11: We kept hoping that we would find some golden key 533 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 11: to arms control that might even lead to nuclear zero, 534 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 11: but we always haven't achieved that because we've had proliferation 535 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 11: of nuclear weapons. It's not just China, the United States, Russia, 536 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 11: Frompson the UK, but we've Akistan, in India, We've got 537 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 11: all some others we think have nuclear weapons but we 538 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 11: don't say it openly that we kind of know they do. 539 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 11: And we've got loads of others who aspire to have 540 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,479 Speaker 11: nuclear weapons, you know, ran North Korea, where we can 541 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 11: easily see that. What they've taken away from all of 542 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 11: these lessons from the past is that you can blackmail 543 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 11: other countries with nuclear weapons, that you can force people 544 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 11: to do things that they don't want to do, or 545 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 11: you can force them to reckon with you, even as 546 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 11: they otherwise might ignore you in world affairs. So, you know, 547 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,960 Speaker 11: we're back to gund of the euromissile crisis feeling where 548 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 11: we're all sort of sitting thinking, how do we get here, 549 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:34,640 Speaker 11: how do we get to this point? We kind of 550 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 11: obviously totally misjudge and misunderstood and have been really poor 551 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 11: at communicating. And we've got all this more information than 552 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 11: we had before, and yet we've done it again, and. 553 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 10: So there's no learning, you know. And it makes me 554 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 10: crazy because people are like, well, we got through that crisis, 555 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 10: nobody was killed, Like other than the airline are full 556 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 10: of dead people like you. People are gambling with normal 557 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 10: people's lives. And the reason I find able art are 558 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 10: so interesting is precisely because there are other moments where 559 00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 10: you watch crises kind of start to spiral out of 560 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 10: control and you see all the same dynamics at play. 561 00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 4: We now believe that only force will make him leave. 562 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 1: We can't let the world's worse leaders blackmail threaten. 563 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:25,439 Speaker 9: Would be prepared to without delay with pis wonder ward. 564 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 6: Just by walking away from it. 565 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 1: That's a victory for the other side, with the blood 566 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 1: of our citizens and the strength of our worry. Tonight 567 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 1: about China's new missile capability. 568 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 7: President Trump writing, will someone from his depleted and food 569 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,960 Speaker 7: starve regime please inform him that I too have a 570 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 7: nuclear button, but it is a much bigger and more 571 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,000 Speaker 7: powerful one than his, and might hamm why don't we use. 572 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,080 Speaker 4: Them with Trump projected those weapons of mass destruction got 573 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 4: to be something parading his nuclear arsenal. 574 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 10: This posenominous nuclear language. 575 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,359 Speaker 1: It's president threatening nuclear war. 576 00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,480 Speaker 4: This is not a bluff, and those who tried to 577 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:03,239 Speaker 4: blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing 578 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,480 Speaker 4: wins can turn in their direction. 579 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,360 Speaker 2: It's just way too complicated a problem for us to 580 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,799 Speaker 2: be cleanly and easily dealing with. 581 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,480 Speaker 1: This is John Batham. 582 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,320 Speaker 5: I'm John Batham. I'm the director of War Games. 583 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:36,759 Speaker 1: That's right, my friends. We're going to bring it all 584 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,040 Speaker 1: home right where we began with the movie that started 585 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 1: it all, at least for me. 586 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:42,760 Speaker 4: Sure we got a problem. 587 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 1: Whipper's not letting me log back on. They can't get 588 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,280 Speaker 1: any stand out of them. In the movie War Games, 589 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,160 Speaker 1: the plot comes to a climax when Whopper, that's the 590 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 1: US Department of Defense's supercomputer, goes rogue and is about 591 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,240 Speaker 1: to start launching nuclear weapons at the Soviet Union. 592 00:35:58,800 --> 00:35:59,959 Speaker 4: Well, can't they get in and stop? 593 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:07,080 Speaker 1: Time is running out at Norad, buried deep inside Cheyenne Mountain, 594 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 1: the entire US Nuclear Command is running around like chickens 595 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,399 Speaker 1: with their heads cut off, trying to figure out how 596 00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:16,360 Speaker 1: to stop the computer from starting a nuclear war. But 597 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,239 Speaker 1: none of the adults in the room can fix it. 598 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 1: The world's only hope the kid, David Lightman, laid by 599 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 1: National Treasurer Matthew Broderick. 600 00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 4: But what are we gonna do? 601 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 5: I don't know, do you. 602 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,439 Speaker 4: I told you not to start playing games with that thing. 603 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 6: It's games. 604 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,640 Speaker 4: Games. Try it wants to play a game, then play it. 605 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:44,319 Speaker 1: See Whopper uses games to teach itself Chess, poker, you 606 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 1: name it. And David Lightman knows that the only hope 607 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 1: in saving humanity is to somehow teach the computer to 608 00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,360 Speaker 1: understand what mutually assured destruction really means. 609 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 2: And eventually he does come up with a solution that, 610 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,400 Speaker 2: you know, kind of stemies the computer, which is playing 611 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 2: Tic Tac Toe. Tic Tac Toe, one of the simplest 612 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:09,360 Speaker 2: games in the universe. 613 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,000 Speaker 5: Put X in the center square. 614 00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 1: As Whopper narrows in on the launch codes, it begins 615 00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 1: playing Tic Tac Toe. And we've all played it, so 616 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 1: you know what happens next game after game ends in 617 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 1: a tie. There's no way you can win that game. 618 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 4: I know that it doesn't. 619 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,399 Speaker 1: It doesn't learned what David Lightman knows that the supercomputer 620 00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 1: does not, is that Tic tac Toe is a futile game. 621 00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: There's no point in playing it at all because there's 622 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:46,400 Speaker 1: no winning. That's when the computer realizes, just like Tic 623 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: Tac Toe, when it comes to nuclear war, every scenario 624 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 1: ends the same way. In a tie, everyone is equally dead. 625 00:37:56,360 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 2: The only winning move is not to play. 626 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:09,720 Speaker 4: Is not today? How am i okay nay of jess? 627 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,959 Speaker 1: The only winning move is not to play. It's such 628 00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,800 Speaker 1: an obvious answer, but one that all the big adult 629 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:24,280 Speaker 1: brains running around Norad couldn't possibly consider, because being buried 630 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,279 Speaker 1: in nuclear strategy and tactics for so many years had 631 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 1: blinded them to a simple truth found in a rudimentary 632 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:37,800 Speaker 1: children's game. So how close were we to all dying 633 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 1: in November of nineteen eighty three? Well, my dear listeners, 634 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,720 Speaker 1: there are only a few people who can definitively answer 635 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,920 Speaker 1: that question once and for all. The Soviet leaders themselves 636 00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:52,239 Speaker 1: and their answers are forever buried along with them in 637 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:56,000 Speaker 1: the Kremlin Wall necropolis. So unless the CIA lets me 638 00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,919 Speaker 1: borrow their time machine and their mind reading device, were 639 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 1: just never going to know exactly how close and drop 640 00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 1: off was to pushing the button that night. 641 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,120 Speaker 4: But ultimately, yeah, we don't know. Unfortunately, for the people 642 00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 4: that want to know how close was the finger to 643 00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:13,960 Speaker 4: the button, we won't. 644 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:18,800 Speaker 1: Know the truth. That elusive holy Grail may be buried 645 00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 1: in Moscow for good. But there's no denying the able 646 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:32,000 Speaker 1: Archer story is still absolutely absurd. It is absurd that 647 00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,879 Speaker 1: it's even remotely possible we all almost perished in an 648 00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,600 Speaker 1: unintentional nuclear war in nineteen eighty three, and that the 649 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,279 Speaker 1: actions of just a few people could have been our 650 00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:46,920 Speaker 1: saving grace. People like Stanislov Petrov and Oleg Gordievsky and 651 00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:50,160 Speaker 1: Ryan or Rupp, who, in their own small ways intervened, 652 00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,600 Speaker 1: and Leonard Perutz, who, after hearing that the Soviets were 653 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,719 Speaker 1: going on alert, decided to do nothing, decided not to 654 00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,600 Speaker 1: play the game. If it wasn't for the people, we 655 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 1: might all be tiny radioactive particles floating through a barren, 656 00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:09,200 Speaker 1: scorched atmosphere. Their actions are inspiring, sure, but it's not 657 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:14,840 Speaker 1: exactly hopeful, is it, Because it reinforces an unacceptable nuclear reality, 658 00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,040 Speaker 1: one where the fate of humanity can sometimes depend on 659 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,440 Speaker 1: a few people trying to thwart disaster. While the leaders 660 00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,799 Speaker 1: of the world double down on public trash talking, attempted 661 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:30,320 Speaker 1: mind reading, and shows of strength in lieu of diplomacy. 662 00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,720 Speaker 1: So where the hell does this leave us? Well, maybe 663 00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,880 Speaker 1: not all is lost. Maybe we can begin to approach 664 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,280 Speaker 1: the nuclear dilemma with a little humility. Maybe we don't 665 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:46,160 Speaker 1: have to accept the status quo. Leonard Brutz didn't accept 666 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,279 Speaker 1: it when after Able Archer he wouldn't stay quiet about 667 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,360 Speaker 1: the intelligence failures he believed led us to the brink. 668 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,320 Speaker 1: Nate Jones didn't accept it when he dedicated his life 669 00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,759 Speaker 1: to bringing Able Archer out of obscurity and into the light. 670 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 1: And by the way, Nate Jones is still at it. 671 00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 4: I'm still voiding footnotes to go even deeper. I think 672 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,000 Speaker 4: there's still more stuff to find. 673 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,840 Speaker 1: Soldier on Nate Jones, You and those like you represent 674 00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 1: the real hope in this mess. Maybe, just maybe, through 675 00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:21,719 Speaker 1: your tireless efforts, the situation normal won't always be fucked up. 676 00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,280 Speaker 1: I don't know, listener, when it's all said and done, 677 00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:30,479 Speaker 1: I think the real hero here is me. I don't 678 00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,759 Speaker 1: know how, and I don't know why. Somehow that just 679 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:40,000 Speaker 1: feels right. So you're welcome, everyone. Snapoo is a production 680 00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,840 Speaker 1: of iHeartRadio, Film, Nation Entertainment and Pacific Electric Picture Company 681 00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:47,640 Speaker 1: in association with Gilded Audio. It's executive produced by me 682 00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,719 Speaker 1: Ed Helms, Nolan Papelka, Mike Falbo, Andy Chuck, and Whitney Donaldson. 683 00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,359 Speaker 1: Our lead producers are Sarah Joyner and Alyssa Martino. Our 684 00:41:56,400 --> 00:42:00,760 Speaker 1: producer is Carl Nellis. Associate producer Tory Smith. This episode 685 00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 1: was written by Sarah Joyner, with additional writing from me 686 00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,960 Speaker 1: Elliott Kalen, and Whitney Donaldson. Our senior editor is Jeffrey 687 00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:08,120 Speaker 1: Lewis like they. 688 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,439 Speaker 10: Have little cookies and tea and you know it's nice. 689 00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,800 Speaker 1: Olivia Kenny is our production assistant. Our creative executive is 690 00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,799 Speaker 1: Brett Harris. Additional research and fact checking by Charles Richter. 691 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,400 Speaker 1: Engineering and technical direction by Nick Dooley. Original music and 692 00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,680 Speaker 1: sound design by Dan Rosatto. Some archival audio from this 693 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:29,399 Speaker 1: episode originally appeared in Taylor Downing's fantastic film nineteen eighty three, 694 00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,440 Speaker 1: The Brink of Apocalypse. Thank you, mister Downing for permission 695 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:36,040 Speaker 1: to use it. Special thanks to Alison Cohen and Matt Asenstadt.