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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 2: All right. Here we go from the test growing in

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Speaker 2: job spect.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying it's a catch too.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right. This is the ultimate kabash Wanna and we

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Speaker 1: are What is up? Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network

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Speaker 1: Podcast presented by FanDuel. I am Chris Raybon and this

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Speaker 1: is your AFC betting preview Part one. In this episode,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk the AFC East, We're gonna talk the

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Speaker 1: AFC South. Part two will be out later and it

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Speaker 1: will be covering the a f C North and the

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Speaker 1: a f C West. And here to break down all

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Speaker 1: of the teams, all of the outlooks, all of the predictions,

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister, Degenerate Nation, my good friend Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 2: What is going on up, brother, Football's in the air

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Speaker 2: seventeen days. I'm excited to chop it up with you

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Speaker 2: all season again. Hopefully win everybody a bunch of money again.

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Speaker 2: Excited to talk some NFL. We're doing four episodes, two

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Speaker 2: divisions in each, over the next two days. So get ready.

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Speaker 2: It's time. It's go time.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, it's go time. So hope everyone out here

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Speaker 1: find some value from these. Obviously we'll be back all

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Speaker 1: season long during our weekly pod with a six pack,

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Speaker 1: but here we're just gonna kind of go preview each team,

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Speaker 1: talk about their win total, any other bets we might

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Speaker 1: like over under just our general outlooks all right, so

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Speaker 1: stuck before we jump into the AFC East, which will

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Speaker 1: do first, and we'll do the AFC South. I just

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Speaker 1: want to get your kind of general thoughts on the

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Speaker 1: AFC because for my vantage point, I think you have

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Speaker 1: the Bills, you have the Chiefs, you have the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: then you have a real gauntlet where I just feel

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Speaker 1: like there are pretty much a half dozen, if not

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Speaker 1: more teams that are in their running for those four

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Speaker 1: wild card spots. Is that kind of how you see

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Speaker 1: the AFC as well? Or are there more tiers as

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Speaker 1: you kind of powerank these teams?

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Speaker 2: I think those are the three clear best teams in

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Speaker 2: the AFC from a power rating perspective, but there's a bit,

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Speaker 2: like you said, a significant second tier. I think cracking

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Speaker 2: the code of the AFC is trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: who of those teams can potentially emerge from the fold

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Speaker 2: and who is going to fail to live up to expectations.

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Speaker 2: But it is a gauntlet of a conference. Difference between

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Speaker 2: the AFC and NFC is just shocking. So from a

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Speaker 2: macro perspective, when and we'll talk about this when we

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Speaker 2: do our NFC previews, but when I was looking for

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Speaker 2: longer shots try and find a potential long shot for

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Speaker 2: a Super Bowl future, I basically throughout the AFC. I

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Speaker 2: just it's almost impossible really focused on the NFC for

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Speaker 2: my long shot exercise. So I think it's a much

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Speaker 2: more viable path for one of these longer shots the

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Speaker 2: NFC to just get through that conference, which is much weaker.

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Speaker 2: THEFC is going to be brutal once again. It'll be

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Speaker 2: fun to watch. Can't wait?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly? You know. Goaltw is the word I keep

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Speaker 1: coming back to as well for the AFC. So let's

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Speaker 1: start off with the Buffalo Bills. Their win total at

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Speaker 1: FanDuel is ten and a half. The over is juiced

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Speaker 1: up to about minus one forty four. Sean McDermott has

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Speaker 1: led this team to the over five of his six

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Speaker 1: years as the head coach, but we know double digit

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Speaker 1: win totals tend to not be plus ev bets. Going

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Speaker 1: back to two thousand and two and the NFL expanded

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Speaker 1: to thirty two two teams, double digit win totals are

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Speaker 1: just fifty sixty four and six. That's about a forty

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Speaker 1: four percent win rate. I think if the Bills are

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Speaker 1: fall short of that total, offensive line might be a

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Speaker 1: good place to start. You know, Dion Dawkins really the

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Speaker 1: only guy that greeted out above average last year, and

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Speaker 1: you know Quessenberry struggling Shell retired Doyle's hurt. I got

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Speaker 1: a rookie at right guard as well. So what are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts about the Bills for me? I kind of

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Speaker 1: I think the O line is something where I'd be

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Speaker 1: a little bit concerned.

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Speaker 2: That's the red flag with the Bills coming into this season.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you look last year, I mean, this

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Speaker 2: is a team. I think people have soured on the

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Speaker 2: Bills maybe a little too much football in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: It's the margins are so thin. I mean, if they

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Speaker 2: swipkick it, they win a Super Bowl. And last year

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Speaker 2: I had em Power rated as at the end of

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Speaker 2: this regular season, is the number one team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: They won thirteen games. They had they shifit the bed

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Speaker 2: against the Bengals. It happened, is one game. Still one

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Speaker 2: of the best teams team that I have power aided

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Speaker 2: actually number one coming into the season, right there with

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. But the offensive line and just how it's

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Speaker 2: looked and some of the injuries is a major concern.

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Speaker 2: But if you look at last season, they did all

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Speaker 2: that the thirteen wins with Allen potentially being hobbled. He

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Speaker 2: wasn't fully healthy with the injury he was dealing with.

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Speaker 2: And the defense, the defense just was absolutely ravaged with injuries.

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Speaker 2: You know, Now you get Hide Employer reunited at safety,

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Speaker 2: and I really spent a lot of time trying to

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Speaker 2: dig into and it's part of it's a guessing game.

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Speaker 2: But when are Hide Employer are going to you know,

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Speaker 2: fall off the cliff? Right, they're getting older. I still

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Speaker 2: think that they have one more really good year together

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Speaker 2: as a duo. And the McDermott's system, it's very reliant

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Speaker 2: on safeties. They do so much and they know the

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Speaker 2: system so well and they allow the bill to do

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Speaker 2: so many different things on that defense. Now, there's a

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Speaker 2: question that one of the linebacker spots. But if Todaevius

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Speaker 2: White can get back to you, he was hurt recovering

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Speaker 2: from injury as well. You know, basically their three defensive

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Speaker 2: captains didn't play a single snap together last year, and

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Speaker 2: then you have the von Miller injury and von Miller hide.

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Speaker 2: I think getting rest at their age like that might

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Speaker 2: be a good thing coming into this year. But the

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Speaker 2: defense will be able to do so many more things

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Speaker 2: with those safeties back, and if Von Miller when he

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Speaker 2: comes back healthy, the defense is just at a different

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Speaker 2: level when they're able to generate natural pressure and he

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Speaker 2: can still do that second corner. Still a bit of

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Speaker 2: a question that you're gonna see a lot of heavy

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Speaker 2: nickel and more dime. Put Taylor Rapp in there, who

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Speaker 2: they signed near the line of scrimmage more often. But

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Speaker 2: I really like the defense. It's gonna watch what they

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Speaker 2: do with that other linebacker Spott. I'm not a Bernard guy,

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Speaker 2: and that second corn corner if someone can emerge. But

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Speaker 2: this defense should be really good. The offense obviously still

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Speaker 2: is Josh Allen. It just comes down to the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: which could ruin everything like this seems still gonna win.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna go to the playoffs barring you know, injury disaster.

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Speaker 2: But that's really what's either going to make or break

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Speaker 2: them reaching where Bills fans expect them to go to

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Speaker 2: the ANFC Championship, potentially win a Super Bowl. It's that

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Speaker 2: offensive line, and that's what I'll be watching early and

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Speaker 2: often because it's definitely a potential problem area.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think the defense is, to your point,

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Speaker 1: going to continue to be very good. Last season, the

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Speaker 1: defense was second had the second most adjusted games lost

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Speaker 1: due to injury according to Football Outsiders. You know, they

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Speaker 1: kind of look at all the games missed, the kind

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Speaker 1: of adjust it to wait starters more. But they were

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Speaker 1: number two on offense. And I think this year the

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Speaker 1: offense may go through some some more struggles, you know,

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Speaker 1: the O line. They're also kind of going away from

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Speaker 1: I think that super spread. Look, I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: go more Dalton Kincaid and can try to force defenses

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Speaker 1: to either go with Yeah, and that's it. So they're

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Speaker 1: gonna try to go to more, you know, make a defense.

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Speaker 1: If if you go base, we're gonna we're gonna beat

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Speaker 1: you with Kincaid on a linebacker. If you go Nickel,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna try to run a little more. So I

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Speaker 1: think that could be good for them, but it could

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Speaker 1: also make them a little bit of a different kind

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Speaker 1: of team.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: They they may win lower scoring games. They might be

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Speaker 1: a team we were looking at unders more early in

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Speaker 1: the year before the market adjusts. But you know, out

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Speaker 1: of the teams we're gonna talk about that have a

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Speaker 1: double digit win total, uh, you know, I think the

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Speaker 1: in the AC at ten and a half, I still

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Speaker 1: feel better out the Bills than you know, anybody in

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Speaker 1: that AFC North where it's just kind of it's a

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Speaker 1: gauntlet really between all four teams, the Chiefs that I

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Speaker 1: feel okay about as well. But I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not as down on the Bills as I expected

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Speaker 1: to be. I thought their win total might even be

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half, But at ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: I think it could go either way at this point.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, the old is real is a real concern.

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Speaker 1: The defense should be should be good to go, but

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Speaker 1: there I think the offense will with different regardless more

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Speaker 1: two tight end looks.

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Speaker 2: I love the addition of Kinkaid that you know they're

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Speaker 2: gonna you're gonna see more two tight end looks. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's year two of Dorsey calling plays, giving a little

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Speaker 2: bit more comfortable as an offensive coordinator. Now their win

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Speaker 2: totals over ten halfs juice, it's like, yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: really ten nine? Yeah, exactly, project them eleven point four.

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Speaker 2: Part of that, I think you agree with me. We're

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Speaker 2: going to get to them in a second. We think

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Speaker 2: the Jets are tad bit overrated. I think the Patriots

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Speaker 2: are in for a really long, tough year, and the

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Speaker 2: Dolphins will talk about them. But I've soured a bit

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Speaker 2: on Miami. So you know, part of that Bill's projection

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Speaker 2: of eleven point four obviously takes some of that into accounts.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, if I had to bet the Bills win total,

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Speaker 2: I would actually go over sixteen games.

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Speaker 1: Last year they won thirteen of them. One of the

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Speaker 1: losses was a loss that probably played that game a

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Speaker 1: thousand more times. They don't lose with a game against

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Speaker 1: minnesot How.

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Speaker 2: About the thousand times that, yeah, don't lose.

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Speaker 1: That a two point loss to Miami in Miami when

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Speaker 1: no one could everyone just have heat exhaustion, and uh,

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Speaker 1: a three point loss to the Jets, which you know

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Speaker 1: in the division that's fair, but he had no losses

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Speaker 1: by more than three points. He went thirteen and three.

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Speaker 1: Now the win told was ten and a half. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I thought this was gonna be a team that I

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Speaker 1: would end up fading. You kind of anytime you have

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Speaker 1: a team that has so much success, you kind of

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Speaker 1: think like that entering the year. But ten and a

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Speaker 1: half a little bit too well for me for Buffalo

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Speaker 1: side went over as well. Let's talk about the Miami

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Speaker 1: Dolphins because they, you know, I think both of us

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Speaker 1: kind of agreed they looked like that team that if

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Speaker 1: there was there were going to be a team to

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Speaker 1: to kind of upset the Bills, Miami would be right

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Speaker 1: there and maybe a little underrated compared to the Jets.

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Speaker 1: But Jaymon Ramsey losing him for whatever amount of time

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Speaker 1: he's going to be out to some point in the season, Uh,

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Speaker 1: that's not that that knocks the defense down a peg.

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Speaker 1: Xavian Howard's also thirty, which I know, you know, you've

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Speaker 1: always kind of talked about cornerbacks tend to kind of

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Speaker 1: go downhill around that age, and he started to last year.

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Speaker 1: Even he was greeted out just in a thirty third

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Speaker 1: percentile among corners at PFF. So what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on Miami as it stands right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and by the way, speaking of the Dolphins and

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Speaker 2: the Bills, to tie the two together, the best news

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Speaker 2: I can give Bills fans this year is you will

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Speaker 2: travel down to Miami week eighteen, the where the heat

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Speaker 2: is the lowest that can possibly be. Yeah, the Ramsey

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Speaker 2: loss is huge. He could have done him and Holland

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Speaker 2: could Vic. Fangio could have done so many different things

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Speaker 2: with both of them, and now with him injured, I

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Speaker 2: have my doubts about Howard as you mentioned now thirty

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Speaker 2: trending downward thirty and like dealing with a lot of

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Speaker 2: injuries in recent seasons, and the trajectory isn't great. So

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Speaker 2: I have major questions about the secondary in a one

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Speaker 2: eighty of a scheme change. I love Fangio, but there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be an adjustment period here.

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Speaker 1: I'm really going from a lot of a lot of

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Speaker 1: man in the last game. Uh, it's a lot more zone.

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Speaker 2: Right yep. And yeah, and like from single high to

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Speaker 2: to double the way fewer blitzes you're gonna you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a lot more you know, simulated pressures and just

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Speaker 2: the philosophy of Fangio's defenses are really confused a quarterback

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Speaker 2: force them into a lot of shorter throws, you know,

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Speaker 2: take away the explosive play and eventually making a team

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Speaker 2: go down the field. You're gonna create havoc, make a

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Speaker 2: play for three and alf force a turnover. The big

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Speaker 2: philosophical shift from what Miami did before, and it might

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Speaker 2: take some time, maybe a season or two. Speaking of adjustments,

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Speaker 2: I'm also curious to see what McDaniel does with this offense,

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Speaker 2: because the league adjusted to him. This offense was untouchable

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Speaker 2: for the first what until they played the Chargers. Ironically,

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Speaker 2: they and you know, teams started playing more press man

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Speaker 2: and getting up into you know, these smaller, speedier receivers

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Speaker 2: and throwing off the timing. Yes, and you know, then

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Speaker 2: two went out, so we have we didn't really see McDaniel,

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Speaker 2: you know, kind of counter back, what's you gonna do?

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Speaker 2: And he's had a whole offseason look at it. And

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Speaker 2: the interesting thing is they start with the Chargers, so

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Speaker 2: we're gonna see, uh, you know, the Chargers kind of

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Speaker 2: had their the antidote for what they were doing, and

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Speaker 2: now we'll see them play in week one. I still have,

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Speaker 2: you know, a little some questions about the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: but I want to see how they adjust on offense

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Speaker 2: and then you can Tua stay healthy. I mean, you

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Speaker 2: have that many concussions. It's just one hit, Like this

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Speaker 2: is a thing that it's not like, hey, I'm healthy now,

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Speaker 2: Like this is a compounding thing when you have concussions.

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Speaker 2: So that's certainly a concern. So yeah, I think the

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Speaker 2: the defense is going to take some time. The Ramsey

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Speaker 2: loss is just massive. I project Miami and their wind

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Speaker 2: total sitting around nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty on both sides. Yep.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm pretty spot on the nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: So I don't see any value in the wind total.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I would say a couple of months ago,

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Speaker 2: it was a team that I was thinking about potentially

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Speaker 2: looking at for a long shot in semi long shot

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Speaker 2: in the AFC or the division, and I've decided to

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Speaker 2: pass there after kind of digging deeper.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I think Miami's win

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Speaker 1: total nine and a half about right. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: in that nine to nine and a half range is right,

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Speaker 1: But I think Miami is probably gonna be a little

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Speaker 1: more run heavy, and I was at that Charger game

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Speaker 1: when to me, it just looked like, you know, having

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Speaker 1: more guys up at the line of scrimmage, having more

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Speaker 1: and more zones, you know, in that intermediate short to

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Speaker 1: intermediate area. It just seemed like, you know, it took

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Speaker 1: to an extra beat to kind of process what was

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Speaker 1: going on. And you take away that first reader. You

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Speaker 1: disrupted with timing, and it's a very timing based offense.

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Speaker 1: I think you could cause problems. And yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: that's you know, when you talk about a guy who

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Speaker 1: has to make sure he doesn't get hit in the pocket.

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Speaker 1: You know, we could see this offense limited a bit

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Speaker 1: just for that reason. Also, they got lucky, you know,

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill and jam and Waddell didn't miss a game

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Speaker 1: last year. They still don't have much at tight end

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Speaker 1: to speak of. If if one of those guys does

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Speaker 1: go down, at least Sicky was more of like a

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Speaker 1: pass catcher. So yeah, this this offense, I think this

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Speaker 1: team in general still has a low floor. Their ceiling

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Speaker 1: is high, especially when MS is healthy and if two

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Speaker 1: is healthy, but the floor is low. So like if

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Speaker 1: I had to pick one of these AFC teams, you know,

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Speaker 1: to miss the playoffs and Dolphins are about eating even

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Speaker 1: money each way for that, I'd actually go with them

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Speaker 1: missing just because I think that AFC North is going

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Speaker 1: to have you know, potentially three teams in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: and I think the Dolphins are just kind of lumped

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Speaker 1: in still with the Jets here trying to you know,

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Speaker 1: Buffalo is that clear top top dog in the ANFC East.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, the Dolphins, I think that Rett Ramsey injury

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Speaker 1: is a killer for them. Strength potential weakness.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned Hill and Waddle. If either one of those

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Speaker 2: goes down, Yeah, it's a different who's in there, River, River,

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Speaker 2: Craidcraft or.

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Speaker 1: Eric as you come. I had a good, uh preseason game,

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Speaker 1: you know, so maybe he gets some more point in time.

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Speaker 1: I know they got Burrios to kind of take the

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Speaker 1: Sherfield role, but yeah, it's not an impressive offense, not

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Speaker 1: an impressive group of passing. I think Devon a change,

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Speaker 1: the rookie running back, could be a lot more involved

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Speaker 1: in the pass game if they need more juice. You know,

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Speaker 1: he has some speed and they do have moster In

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Speaker 1: Wilson still there, so they could kind of use him

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Speaker 1: as more of a chess piece. But Yeah, there's a

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Speaker 1: low floor on this Dolphins team, so like I don't

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Speaker 1: I don't really want to bet like their median win

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Speaker 1: total either way. Like you said, I think it's more

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Speaker 1: or less right. They just above average kind of team,

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Speaker 1: you know, nine nine ish win team. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: not looking as good as it did maybe a month

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Speaker 1: or two ago. So yeah, I think they're kind of

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Speaker 1: lumped into this gauntlet with the with the Jets, who

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Speaker 1: are also at nine and a half, little more juice

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Speaker 1: to the over than Miami minus one twenty two to

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Speaker 1: the over at fand or the Jets. Now, a lot

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Speaker 1: of people the first thing I always wonder with a

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Speaker 1: team like the Jets, you know, hard Knocks is a

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Speaker 1: lot of hype behind this team. I'm actually surprised to

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Speaker 1: learn that teams on Hard Knocks are nine, eight and

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Speaker 1: one to the over. So it's not I would have

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Speaker 1: thought they would have had more of an underlean just

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Speaker 1: due to the hype. In the last six years, five

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Speaker 1: of them have gone under, so maybe that is catching

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Speaker 1: on as betting becomes more popular. But overall, no real

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Speaker 1: edge either way, fading or not fading the Hard Knock team.

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Speaker 1: But you know, where are you on the Jets. Now.

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Speaker 1: I know we were kind of coming into the season

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Speaker 1: looking to fade in just based on all an Aaron

347
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Speaker 1: Rodgers hype and the fact that the defense was super

348
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Speaker 1: lucky to be as healthy as it was last year.

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Speaker 1: But what are you thinking as we sit here at

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Speaker 1: the end of August.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the defense is certainly legit, and that's what happens

352
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Speaker 2: when you draft a cornerback and saw squd or why

353
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Speaker 2: was obsessed with in college, and he's even become more

354
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Speaker 2: elite quicker than I thought. And I was his biggest

355
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Speaker 2: fan in college, and I think anyone thought. But yet,

356
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Speaker 2: you know, you bring in an elite corner like that,

357
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Speaker 2: it can change everything in a hurry. And the Jets

358
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Speaker 2: went from what like a bottom five defense to a

359
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Speaker 2: top five defense. And it wasn't fluky like it wasn't

360
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Speaker 2: like turnover based, and it wasn't like they just were,

361
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Speaker 2: you know, extraordinarily lucky in the red zone and third downs.

362
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Speaker 2: Like this defense is legit. It the concern would be, yeah,

363
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Speaker 2: they were extremely healthy all season, so does the injury

364
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:09,160
Speaker 2: bug hit them a much more? But but I believe

365
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Speaker 2: in the defense for sure. Solid second year as well.

366
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Speaker 2: I've many more concerns about the offense. You know, it's

367
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Speaker 2: first of all, the offense is better than it was

368
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Speaker 2: last year because you actually have a competent quarterback at

369
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Speaker 2: the minimum. In last year, you have the worst quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the league. The question then becomes, what is the

371
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Speaker 2: ceiling of the offense with Aaron Rodgers? Who is Aaron Rodgers? Now?

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Speaker 2: He is? Yeah? What? How how old is he? Didn't

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Speaker 2: he forget?

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Speaker 1: Uh?

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Speaker 2: If he just had a birthday?

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is forty now?

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Speaker 2: No?

378
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Speaker 1: He he He will be forty on December second of

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Speaker 1: the season.

380
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Speaker 2: Okay, so there's gonna be forty years old. Yeah, yeah,

381
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Speaker 2: age forty season. And if you look at some of

382
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Speaker 2: the metrics over the past years, specifically his deep ball,

383
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Speaker 2: it looks like he's on the decline, which would make sense.

384
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Speaker 2: But then there's you know, hey, he was injured last year.

385
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Speaker 2: He was dealing with an injury, so maybe that contributed.

386
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Speaker 2: I tend to think it makes sense that he would

387
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Speaker 2: be on the decline. So he's certainly not the quarterback

388
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Speaker 2: that he was. He recently had the MVP season and

389
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Speaker 2: he's now playing in front or behind a pretty shaky

390
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Speaker 2: offensive line. Like that's one of my biggest questions about

391
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Speaker 2: this team, like what's going to happen? The key to

392
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Speaker 2: this whole team might be Makai Beckton, Like who is

393
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Speaker 2: he going to get it together? Is he going to

394
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 2: end up? He's like last time was yeah, but who

395
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Speaker 2: is he going to start at right guard? And maybe

396
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Speaker 2: other pieces, you know, fall into place. But there's certainly

397
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Speaker 2: some major concerns about this offensive line, and rightfully so.

398
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Speaker 2: And you know that's not ideal for a forty year

399
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Speaker 2: old agent quarterback who can't really move around. So and

400
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,959
Speaker 2: on top of that, you have the hire of Nathaniel Hackett.

401
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 2: I mean, this is just everything they did was just

402
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Speaker 2: for Rogers, like just bring in his buddies at the receiver,

403
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: bring in his buddy to be the offensive coordinator. And

404
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: like part of me thinks Rogers is just going to

405
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Speaker 2: run the show on his own, and it's not going

406
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Speaker 2: to be the most efficient offense. Rogers marches to the

407
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Speaker 2: beat of his own drum. If things go wrong early on,

408
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 2: you know they're in the AFC. It's a tough schedule.

409
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 2: The New York media, I mean, it could get ugly

410
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 2: fast and just I could see things getting contentious. So

411
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Speaker 2: I don't love the all I don't love the offensive

412
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 2: coordinator high I'm not sure what we're gonna get from Rogers,

413
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Speaker 2: but the offense looks definitely improved. They had Rodgers last year,

414
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Speaker 2: no doubt, a playoff team, but I project nine two

415
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 2: nine three their win total sitting at with translates to

416
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 2: about nine to six. Yep, yeah, yep, nine six. So

417
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Speaker 2: it's a pass for me. I'm just really intrigued to

418
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Speaker 2: see how this offense comes together, particularly the offensive line,

419
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 2: and then what the play calling looks like, and then

420
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Speaker 2: what Rogers has left in the tank. If he can

421
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Speaker 2: has the form that he did two years ago, God

422
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Speaker 2: bless him, and the Jets are a real contender, but

423
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Speaker 2: I have my doubts.

424
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that defense was top five and DVOA the

425
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Speaker 1: two times Rogers has had a top five defense to

426
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Speaker 1: twenty oh nine and twenty ten O nine was that

427
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 1: crazy wild card game against the Cardinals with fifty one

428
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Speaker 1: to forty five loss. In twenty ten as a year

429
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Speaker 1: that the Packers won the Super Bowl, so he was also

430
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Speaker 1: twenty exactly. You know, That's what I was getting too.

431
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Speaker 1: It's not the usual type of defense, but this is

432
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 1: also not the Rogers we've seen even a couple of

433
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: years ago when he was winning those m vps, he

434
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: pretty much had his worst season in many metrics and

435
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: in many ways last year. If you look at you know,

436
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 1: his QBR was thirty nine point three. You know that

437
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: was that's easily a career low. So that you know,

438
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 1: at age thirty nine, that does worry me, you know,

439
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 1: even with I know yet he was playing kind of

440
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 1: with the thumb injury. But Garret Wilson, we love him,

441
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: but he's not DeVante Adams. You know, is there going

442
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: to be some take some time to kind of truly

443
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 1: get acclimated there. You know, this Hacket Hacket Rogers combo,

444
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:40,439
Speaker 1: what is that? You know outside of the lafloor, you

445
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 1: know kind of scheme and and whatnot. Is is it

446
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 1: going to be the same as the MVP years. There's

447
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: a lot of question marks here. So and this is

448
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: going to be a theme for these AFC teams. You

449
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: want to wean under for any of these teams, especially

450
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: if you're you're looking to make a bet and you're

451
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: kind of not sure either way. You know, it's it's

452
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 1: a pass for me. But I do have them a

453
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: little lower than nine and a half. But there's just

454
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: there's only so many teams that are going to be

455
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 1: able to get to double digit wins and make the

456
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: playoffs in this AFC. There's a lot of teams here

457
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 1: in the AFC, so everything breaks right for their defense

458
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 1: and that's able to stay healthy. Rogers isn't going to

459
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 1: lose you a ton of games. I just you know

460
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: he might. It might kind of be like that Brady

461
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 1: year last year, where you know he's gonna get rid

462
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 1: of the ball really quick, especially if the OI isn't good.

463
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: You know, if the defense keeps the minute, the win

464
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: games if they don't look like you know, eight and

465
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: nine or seven and ten, like with the Bucks last year.

466
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 1: So that's where I am with the Jets stuck. We're

467
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 1: doing these episodes because the NFL season is almost here,

468
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 1: and I know that you and I can get so

469
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: busy sometimes we forget to do basic things, basic things

470
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 1: like eat food. That's why we're excited about our new

471
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Speaker 1: sponsored factor, America's number one ready to eat meal kit.

472
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473
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474
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,040
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475
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,439
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476
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477
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Speaker 1: you still get great flavor and the nutritional quality you

478
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: need to tackle challenging topics like the Patriots offense, and

479
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480
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481
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482
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483
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484
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Speaker 1: Action Network Pod fifty that's Action Network Pod five zero,

485
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486
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487
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Speaker 1: factormeals dot com Slash Action Network Pod fifty to get

488
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: fifty percent off. The Patriots you mentioned that think they

489
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 1: are going to be in for kind of a rough year.

490
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: Their win total seven and a half at Sandle the

491
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 1: under is juiced to minus one two. Now Belichick is

492
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: seventeen nine and two over. But a lot of that,

493
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: of course, has come with Tom Brady at the Helm.

494
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: Defense was number three in DVA. But what are you

495
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: seeing for this Pats team in twenty twenty three.

496
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Patriots in the post, Tom in the excuse

497
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: me the post, Philip Dorsett are twenty five and twenty

498
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: five set left now that since Brady left, they're just

499
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: twenty five and twenty five. And I don't know if

500
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 2: fellow Chick is just at the end of the road

501
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 2: and he's just tired. I mean, his defense last year

502
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: was still good, but just some of the things you see,

503
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: the discipline, the mistakes, the special teams were disaster that

504
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: never would happen under Belchie. I think they were dead

505
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:57,959
Speaker 2: last and DVOA and special teams. That's shocking for a

506
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: Patriots team. It's one of the reasons they completely overhauled

507
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 2: their special teams units. So hopefully they get a bump there.

508
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: But you know, it's on the positive side, the defense

509
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 2: has is going to be good. I don't know, like

510
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: last year was probably the peak of how they could perform.

511
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: So I don't think they're going to get, you know,

512
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: any better. They're not going to get, you know, any

513
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 2: extra wins from the defense. If anything, the defense could

514
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 2: only take a slight step back. The good news is

515
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a good defense and the offense at

516
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: least will have some structure. Last year was just I

517
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 2: don't know what they're Another thing, what was Belchic doing

518
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 2: like handing the reins to Joe Judge and Matt Patricia,

519
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 2: Like just be mind blowing. So now you bring in

520
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 2: Bill O'Brien. The hope is that you know that he

521
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 2: can control the offense and Belichick maybe can rain in

522
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 2: some of those other issues on special teams, the discipline,

523
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: and you will actually have an offensive coordinator calling offense.

524
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: What a concept the problem. And you know, Brian and

525
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 2: Mac Jones have a lot of familiarity with each other.

526
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 2: They were together at a marriage at Alabama, and Mac

527
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 2: Jones obviously thrived there, but it was Alabama. Look at

528
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: all the talent that he had. So but I look

529
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 2: at this offense, I like the hire and the staff

530
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: should just be more competent overall. But I just don't

531
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 2: like what they did in the off season to try

532
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 2: to help Jones, who I'm not necessarily a big believer in.

533
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 2: The wide receiver group is extremely underwhelming, one of the

534
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: most underwhelming in the league, and the offensive tackle positions

535
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: are very worrying, and it was a problem the other

536
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: night in the preseason, and you know, it's just preseason,

537
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: but it was something that I'm extremely was extremely worried

538
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: about coming in to the preseason and obviously the regular

539
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: season with you know, trum Brown is who you're right tackle,

540
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 2: left tackle. I mean, everything is just up in the air,

541
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: and it could you know, throw in now Matt Jones,

542
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: who just looks like he took a step back last year.

543
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 2: Obviously not in a great situation, but a very underwhelming

544
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: wide receiver group like this offense is going to struggle

545
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: and I just don't think they have enough firepower to

546
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 2: really compete in the AFC. Oh and by the way,

547
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 2: per My Power Ratings, they have the number one most

548
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 2: difficult schedule in the NFL. It is a absolute gauntlet

549
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: from start to finish. I'm going to be on something

550
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 2: to happen that hasn't happened in twenty five years, and

551
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 2: that is the Patriots to finish last in the division

552
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 2: minus one twenty. I make it closer to about minus

553
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: one fifty. This division is obviously one of the best

554
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 2: in the NFL. We just went through the Dolphins, Bills,

555
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 2: and Jets. You know, the Jets are obviously much more

556
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 2: improved on offense. Now there's a chance that the Dolphins, Bills,

557
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 2: and Jets all finished with nine plus wins. You know,

558
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: maybe the Patriots steal a couple wins late and they

559
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: finish eight to nine and finish in last place. But

560
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 2: they would go they would actually go over their win

561
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 2: over their win total, and the under has actually taken

562
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: some money. So I actually prefer finishing in last over

563
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: the win total. I lean the under on their win

564
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: total as well. I think it's just going to be

565
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: a long year in Foxboro. This offense just has way

566
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: too many question marks. In a loaded conference and a

567
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: loaded schedule, They're.

568
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: Gonna be one of those teams that a tough out

569
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: every week. Because I do think their defense is gonna

570
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: be good. I think their defensive game plans will be good.

571
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: But you know, you gotta play Kansas City in Foxborough.

572
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: You gotta play Philly in Foxborough. The Chargers come to Foxborough,

573
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: and then you go on the road. You're going to Dallas, Pittsburgh, Denver,

574
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: which is not easy, even if they're not great. You know,

575
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: Denver's a lot better at home as they us. You

576
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: know it usually is. And then that AFC East, Yeah,

577
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough to get to to eight nine wins.

578
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: As the fourth best team, I lean under as well,

579
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't mind, you know, taking the under.

580
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: It's a little juiced up. But there's always a chance

581
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: that a team like the Jets or Dolphins, you know,

582
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: especially the Dolphins. I think some injuries things could bottom

583
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: out for for one of those teams. But I do

584
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: think the Patriots as it stands coming into the year

585
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: are the fourth best team and there is a significant

586
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: tier drop from them to the you know, Jets and Dolphins.

587
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably gonna take a of the under. My

588
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: biggest position will be on them finishing and last. But

589
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 2: you're right, there's I'll take some under as well, since

590
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 2: I show a tad bit of value. I'm low on them.

591
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: And then you know, in the event that you two

592
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 2: as again cushion a week one Rogers you know, tears

593
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: his ACL and one of these teams where Josh Allen

594
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 2: you know, breaks his leg, and then then all of

595
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 2: a sudden one of these other teams, you know, the

596
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 2: floor falls out and the Patriots still will only win

597
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 2: six or seven games. So yeah, I don't I'll probably

598
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: have a little bit of the under, but I like

599
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: them finishing in fourth minus one twenty when I price

600
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 2: it out and make it closer to minus one fifty.

601
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 2: And by the way, they also one of their home

602
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: games against the Colts is overseas. Who's a home game there.

603
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's just it's a brutal schedule. I mean, look,

604
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 2: they start Philly, Miami at the Jets at Dallas, could

605
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: start zero and four, and who knows what's going to

606
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: go on with Matt Jones and that offense from there.

607
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, it should take some time. It should be

608
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: a better spot to last year. But the team might

609
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: be better than last year, but the record might not be.

610
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's go and talk this AFC South, and

611
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: I think both of us agree that there's some value

612
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: on the Titans. I like their win total over seven

613
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 1: and a half. I like their divisionize at plus three

614
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: ten for me, and there's a lot of things to

615
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: like about the Titans kind of bouncing back. But I

616
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: think the best way to put it is we've seen

617
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel, who we both love as a coach, four

618
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: and one to the over on the win totals. The

619
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: one under was last season they started seven and three

620
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: last year, then go on a seven game losing streak.

621
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: For of those losses, one score three of those Ryan

622
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: Tannehill missed. One was a game where they lose to

623
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: the Texans by five week Willis throws for ninety nine

624
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: yards and two picks. They lose a game to Jacksonville,

625
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 1: you know for the playoffs where they're up sixteen thirteen

626
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 1: with under three minutes to go before they're street. Free

627
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: agent quarterback who's replacing Willis gets fumble six. So this

628
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 1: Titan team, even last year with all those injuries, not

629
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: far off from what we usually see. You know, this

630
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 1: team do so. You know DeAndre Hopkins, healthier defense, you

631
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 1: know Tannehill is still there. Probably a better situation at

632
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 1: backup than last year. At least, I think this team

633
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 1: can can hold it, you know, stay right there with

634
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and challenge for the division. What do you think?

635
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree. We'll be betting Tennessee to win

636
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: the division. I think you can maybe find a plus

637
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: three fifty out there maybe, as always shop around. I look,

638
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: the narrative changes in the NFL are always so fascinating

639
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 2: to me.

640
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: But as you.

641
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: Mentioned, the Titans were seven and three and the Jaguars

642
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 2: were three and seven. The Titans were also the reigning

643
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 2: number one seed in the AFC the year prior, and

644
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: then the Titans just you know, suffered all kinds of

645
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: injuries across the board, especially on defense. But then you know,

646
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 2: even to Tannehill and it was just everything just snowballed

647
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: on them. Then you had the Jaguars who went on

648
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 2: a run to close out the year get to the playoffs.

649
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: But let's take a closer look at that run. The

650
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 2: run started really after the bye week, and look, there's

651
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 2: no doubt that Trevor Lawrence took a step forward. Things

652
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: started to click for him and he definitely improved, and

653
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 2: the offense could have even more potential this year. Adding

654
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley, you know, could open up the top of

655
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 2: that offense and open things up for the receivers. And

656
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: you know, you would anticipate that Lawrence continues to make strides.

657
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 2: But let's let's take a look at that run. They

658
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:05,880
Speaker 2: beat Baltimore on a two point conversion by one, and

659
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 2: then they lose by one hundred at Detroit. Then they

660
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 2: beat you know that a beat up Tennessee team. They

661
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: beat Dallas in overtime on a pick six. They beat

662
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 2: Chris Streveler and Zach Wilson and the Jets. They beat

663
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: the Texans, and then they beat Josh Dobbs and the

664
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 2: beat up Texas. The Titans again barely twenty to sixteen

665
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: in the game for the playoffs, and then in the playoffs,

666
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,720
Speaker 2: you know they're down thirty to nothing in the Chargers

667
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: Potal Chargers. So like that run is just who did

668
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 2: it really come against? And you know all the bounces

669
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,280
Speaker 2: went their way. I still have a lot of questions

670
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: about this team. The offensive line number one still has

671
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 2: major question marks. You know, you have the Cam Robinson

672
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 2: suspension as well, and the defense is still very poor.

673
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: Opinion the past defense is extremely underwhelming. And also they

674
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 2: didn't get They barely had any injuries across the board

675
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 2: for what it's worth last year offense and defense. And

676
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 2: guess what's rearing its ugly head already injuries on defense.

677
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 2: I mean, you had Devon Hamilton is really important today

678
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: was found was seen on crutches as a back injury.

679
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: They don't know when he's going to return. Smoot is

680
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 2: not expected back until October. They signed.

681
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: Mondo is a.

682
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 2: Free agent for some depth in the interier. He's on

683
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 2: injured reserve, so you know they have fought Ofkasi's week

684
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: to week with a foot injury. So the trenches on

685
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: that defensive law on that defense are already in question,

686
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,399
Speaker 2: and the injuries are already starting to rear their ugly head,

687
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 2: which will really impact the run defense, which is actually

688
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 2: legit and you know, schematically and just personnel wise, they

689
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 2: should be good against the run, but their past defense

690
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 2: is very poor. And I have questions about this team.

691
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 2: This is that people just remember that late run last

692
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 2: year and I think are too infatuated with the Jags.

693
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 2: They're vulnerable. I think the Titans can take full advantage, Like, look,

694
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: I trust Rabel, I like the defense. Some questions at

695
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 2: linebacker for sure, but the defensive line is really strong,

696
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 2: and you know they got a lot of experience last

697
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 2: year with all of those injuries. The Hopkins addition is

698
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 2: just massive, Like I can't like just your possession, first down,

699
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: reliable guy. That means also you're not asking as much

700
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: of Treylon Burke. So I think can really really take

701
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: advantage and explode this year. You have a really promising

702
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 2: tight end who has a ton of explosiveness as well.

703
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: And by the way, I said that I was president

704
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 2: of the Sauce Gardner fan club in college. Well last

705
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: year I was the president of the Taj Spears fan club.

706
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 2: I love him and I love just him as a

707
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: change of pace, a little thunder and lightning back, and

708
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: I think he can actually do some things for this offense.

709
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 2: The biggest you know, they have a new offensive coordinator who,

710
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 2: like last year, the Titans were so good in the

711
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,240
Speaker 2: first quarter and then they could not move the ball

712
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 2: at all. And I think that just Todd Downing would

713
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 2: start game planning, come up with the script, and then

714
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 2: just start drinking and then forget about the rest of

715
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 2: the game. I don't know what happened, So that can

716
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 2: only get better from a play calling predictability standpoint. The

717
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 2: biggest question on this team, which is certainly a concern

718
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 2: and could really collapse everything, is the offensive line. You know,

719
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 2: the Petit Ferreira suspension is massive. He's gonna miss the

720
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 2: first six games. They're projected starting right tackle, so like,

721
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 2: what are they gonna do? I don't know. Some of

722
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 2: the other pieces are very questionable. You gotta hope Andre

723
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 2: Dillard steps up the left tackle, But like, are they

724
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: gonna move Scoronsky the rookie? I like, but he's a rookie,

725
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 2: Like they move him the right tackle. But then if

726
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: you do that, you know, then you're moving your right

727
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 2: guard to left guard. You're moving Brupschill probably the left guard.

728
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,439
Speaker 2: You're moving all these guys around, which you know could

729
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,760
Speaker 2: go very wrong. But then when Petit Ferreira comes back,

730
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 2: then you're moving everyone back again. So like mid season.

731
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 2: So I'm fascinated to see what they do with this

732
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 2: offensive line because it's certainly concerned that suspension really threw

733
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 2: a wrench into this offense, so that's definitely concerned. Regardless,

734
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 2: I agree, I see value in the over. I project

735
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 2: eight point five and their winch It'll sit at seven

736
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 2: a half choice a little bit to the over, and

737
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: I'll be on the Titans to win the division as well,

738
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 2: after everything went wrong for them last year, and everything

739
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: went wrong for Jags, like the bounces could go the

740
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 2: Titans way. And generally speaking, when Vrabel, you know, doesn't

741
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 2: have everything fold in on him like last year, he's

742
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 2: going to overperform expectations and he's probably gonna win a

743
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 2: few of those a few more coin flips than not.

744
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, like the Titans selling the Jags, leaning under

745
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 2: on the Jags as well, but I don't think the

746
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 2: Titans can win more than like ten games in the ANFC.

747
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 2: So you know, taking the Titans for the division is

748
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: in a way an indirect you know, some indirect exposure

749
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 2: on the Jaguars under at a much juicier price, because

750
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 2: I think in order for the Titans to win the division,

751
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 2: they probably finished like ten and seven, even nine to

752
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:57,839
Speaker 2: eight with a tiebreaker, and then the Jags finished you know,

753
00:41:58,239 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 2: nine and eight, eight and nine.

754
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I think the Titans over has

755
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: a ton of value, especially for a win total over

756
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,839
Speaker 1: which you don't usually see. I already bet their division ads.

757
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 1: I still like it. It's still you know, floating around,

758
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 1: like you said, plus three ten plus three fifty.

759
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 2: Uh.

760
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: And for the Jags, you know, just to add to

761
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: what you talked about, you know, this team, it looks

762
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: sexy on paper, but it really is all about their

763
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:28,280
Speaker 1: skill position guys Lawrence Ridley, Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Ingram, Travis, etn.

764
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 1: You know, outside of them, their line is pretty shaky.

765
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: You don't really have anyone who graded out above average.

766
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 1: You know Robinson is going to miss the last four games.

767
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 1: And then on defense, you know, this was a the

768
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 1: twenty sixth ranked defense and dvaa thirtieth against the past.

769
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 1: Didn't really do much in the offseason. Now they should

770
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 1: be better in the sack department. They were fourth in

771
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: pressure rate, but the sacks didn't really match up. But still,

772
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 1: you know, especially with as you mentioned, the depth concerns,

773
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: the injury luck kind of even and out the defense

774
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: could be an issue, That O line could be an issues.

775
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,320
Speaker 1: You're really just talking about a team with great skill players,

776
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 1: which isn't enough in this division. But I agree, I

777
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: think the Titans are the team to bet here and

778
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: another way to get some exposure to some you know,

779
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: a way to bet the Jags under. You could bet

780
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: them to miss the playoffs at plus one fifty eight

781
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 1: on FANDE. I've seen it. I think as high as

782
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: with plus one ninety because you don't expect two teams

783
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 1: to come out of the AFC South, just with how

784
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: tough the AFC is. You know, the Jets and Dolphins

785
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 1: in the East, and the all four teams in the North,

786
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: and you know the Chargers, maybe even the Broncos in

787
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: the West. Doubt two teams will come out of the South,

788
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 1: so whoever wins that division, So you could bet Titans

789
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: to win the division and also bet Jags not to

790
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, both of those at you know, plus money.

791
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 1: That's how I kind of attack those two squads. All right.

792
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: Football season is officially back, which means a lot of

793
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 1: new listeners for the show out of new viewers, So

794
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 1: now is a great time to talk about first impressions

795
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 1: and whether you're a football team or a football fan,

796
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,160
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797
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:04,640
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798
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:08,680
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799
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,279
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800
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 1: can get back to placing bets. It's just two products

801
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,000
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802
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,520
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803
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804
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806
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807
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:38,840
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808
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:43,279
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811
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813
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815
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 1: code action. Let's talk about the Texas and Colts here.

816
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 1: They're kind of tied for with the win total of

817
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:17,879
Speaker 1: six and a half. We w like the Titans over

818
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 1: seven and a half with Jags ween under nine and

819
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 1: a half, but the Colts and Texas are both six

820
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 1: and a half. Now. The Texans, they were a team

821
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 1: that I thought, you know, earlier in the offseason might

822
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: be a sharp kind of you know, bet them over.

823
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be a team that I'm gonna

824
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 1: be betting on as a dog a lot of weeks because

825
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: this is not the same tanking Texans, like you know,

826
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 1: they traded the first round pick to Arizona. They got

827
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: their quarterback, you know, they they did sign some veterans.

828
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 1: So the roster isn't you know, in complete tank mode,

829
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: you know, Jimmy Ward, h Dalton Schultz, some some guys,

830
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 1: you know, the receiving course. Should should be some options

831
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 1: there with with Dell and you know, Robert Woods, I'm

832
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 1: not expecting much from but got mechi uh. And then

833
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 1: the Colts, you know, they're you know, they're also going

834
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: to start a rookie quarterback, you know, in Anthony Richardson.

835
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: So how are you kind of differentiating between both of

836
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: these teams? And do you have a week you know

837
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 1: which one is going to finish last? Is there any

838
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: value on the overs and the unders or what are

839
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 1: you thinking with these two?

840
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 2: The tanking Texas, I mean the anti tanking Texans, they

841
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 2: forgot the tank, didn't get the number one overall pick,

842
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,439
Speaker 2: and I think that's ultimately going to cost them down

843
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 2: the line, as I think Young will be better than Stroud.

844
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 2: And then the Texans, I don't know what they were

845
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 2: doing with that trade for will Anderson giving up all

846
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 2: that they did, that's going to doom them in the future,

847
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 2: but it'll help them this year. For sure. I'm not

848
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 2: a believer in like Stroud rising to this star quarterback

849
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,320
Speaker 2: level at any point in his career. But he's pro ready.

850
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 2: He's extremely accurate, especially when he's protected. And I actually

851
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 2: really like this Texans offensive line went healthy, but they

852
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: were already pretty good. Yeah, you know, you have some

853
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 2: pretty good tackles, and now you add you know, you

854
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 2: added Scruggs. Shack Mason was another good get, and then

855
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:05,760
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, they brought in Dalton Schultz. I actually

856
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: think that they can find enough weapons from what they got.

857
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,359
Speaker 2: I really like Tank del I actually really like Xavier

858
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 2: Hutchinson as well. He's an intriguing piece that maybe he

859
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 2: can contribute some. And then you got Nico Collins and

860
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 2: No Brown. Not sure how much you'll get from Robert Woods,

861
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 2: but maybe he's just a good veteran presence to have

862
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 2: in that younger ye wide receiver and as well. So yeah,

863
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: I don't mind the offense, and I actually did did

864
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 2: special teams are sneaky, good look out for for Dell

865
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 2: potentially contributing there as well, but good punter, reliable kicker,

866
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 2: good coverage units last year. And then the defense, I

867
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 2: kind of like a little bit. I think this could

868
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 2: be a you know, an average defense, not a really

869
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: bad one. They have, you know, I like the Jimmy

870
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 2: Ward signing. Jalen Petrie is a stud. I've watched him

871
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 2: a lot. I think he could be a really good

872
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 2: safety in this league. And then Derek Stingley flashed. He

873
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 2: showed some flash and potential last year before he got

874
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 2: injured at one cornerback spot, you know. And then you

875
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 2: got Desmond King in the slot, Steven Nelson, Shackrivin, some veterans,

876
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 2: so like, the secondary could be decent. And then you

877
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 2: sign you know, but I also like MALIEK. Collins. You

878
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: get Will Anderson to help the pass rush. Jerry Hughes

879
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 2: was really good last year. Then you signed some like

880
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,839
Speaker 2: veterans at linebacker to try and get more contract yeah,

881
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 2: like Harriman, Kersey Littleton. So the defense has some pieces.

882
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 2: So this is not you know, the Texans of the

883
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 2: last couple of years that are just just dreadful. I

884
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 2: actually think that they're a better team.

885
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: Than the Colts.

886
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 2: You know, both similar. They got rookie quarterbacks. You know,

887
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 2: you have new coaches. But I think Stroud is more

888
00:48:55,320 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 2: NFL ready right now, is more NFL ready right now

889
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 2: to come in contribute. He's way more accurate. And yeah,

890
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 2: I think that I like this team. I power rate

891
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 2: them ahead of the Colts. We'll talk about in the second.

892
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 2: So I like the Colts. We talked about the the

893
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 2: Jags unless unless Trevor Lawrence gets hurt, they're not finishing last.

894
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 2: We like the Titans this year. So I can get

895
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 2: plus two hundred on the Colts finishing in last, which

896
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: I love. And I also like the Colts under. I

897
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 2: think it's currently sitting at what six six and a half?

898
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,319
Speaker 2: You really like six six? You can get I think

899
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 2: plus money on under six and a half. I project

900
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 2: five point seven eight wins, And yeah, I don't. It's

901
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 2: a first time coach, a rookie quarterback who look he's

902
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 2: gonna have he has unbelievable athleticism and talent and he's

903
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 2: gonna make some unbelievable plays that make you go wow

904
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,439
Speaker 2: every week. But I don't think he's NFL ready right now.

905
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 2: He played behind a ridiculously good offensive line last year

906
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:16,800
Speaker 2: at Florida with a really good backfield, and if you

907
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 2: look at his underlying metrics as far as like accuracy,

908
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 2: catchable balls, not great, and now he's playing in front

909
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 2: of an offensive line that just continues to get worse

910
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 2: and worse and worse. And why are we just to

911
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 2: assume that they're going to go back to what twenty

912
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty four where all we've seen the last

913
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 2: two years. I mean, Quentin Nelson, I don't know what's

914
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 2: really happened to him. He went from so dominant to

915
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 2: just now and there's obviously questions are right guard Kelly

916
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 2: has regressed a bit. You know, the tackle positions are

917
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,839
Speaker 2: questionable as well, and then you look at the even

918
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 2: their skill position players like Michael Pittman would be a

919
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 2: good two. I don't necessarily think he's your reliable one.

920
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 2: What's even going on with Jonathan Taylor that's a question

921
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 2: mark as well, but with Richardson's and I don't like

922
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 2: the coordinator hires either. And then you look at the defense.

923
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 2: We we know Shaq Leonard doesn't exist since he changed

924
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 2: his name. I like, you know, some of the piece

925
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 2: to have on the defensive line, but the secondary it

926
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 2: is very questionable. Uh So, yeah, I think you compare

927
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 2: these teams, I like the Texans overall roster better and

928
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 2: I think Stroud is more NFL ready right now to

929
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 2: come in and contribute. And even if you look at

930
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 2: the Cults schedule at the end of the season, like

931
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 2: it's it's rough, it's you know at Tennessee, at Sincy,

932
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 2: Pitt at Atlanta. You know, you get Vegas and Houston

933
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:50,959
Speaker 2: to close it there and it's gonna be an overall

934
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 2: easy schedule with their with their division. But you know

935
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 2: after the bye week, it's tough games in there, and

936
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 2: that's maybe when you would expect Richardson to take a

937
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 2: step forward. So yeah, I like the Colts under and

938
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 2: I like Colts finishing in last place. Slight lean to

939
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 2: the Texans over right, kind of this roster is kind

940
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 2: of sneaky.

941
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I will, I will be I'm with you. I

942
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 1: agree with you.

943
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 2: I'll be looking the bath then, by the way, on

944
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 2: a week the week basis, I'm with you on the Colts.

945
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: I like that, you know, kind of finding a different way,

946
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 1: but beyond just the win total to go under. And

947
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 1: I should point out and this apply to the tex

948
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 1: and ten Coats. You know, teams that have a top

949
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 1: ten picket quarterback start eight or more games as a rookie.

950
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,800
Speaker 1: Going back to two thousand and two, just eleven, eighteen

951
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 1: and two toward the win total over thirty eight percent

952
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 1: over the last ten seasons, down to just twenty seven

953
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: percent just four eleven, four and eleven with two pushes.

954
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 1: So I mean, I probably I think, you know, the Texans.

955
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: I would have leaned over definitely at the five and

956
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 1: a half. I think this line is a little a

957
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 1: lot more in two and I think they'll be competitive

958
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:51,800
Speaker 1: wee week and I think I'd rather bet them that

959
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 1: way than necessarily take their win total over, because seven

960
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,720
Speaker 1: wins that's still it still seems like a stretch too magestic.

961
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:00,720
Speaker 1: I think they'll be in a lot of games Demko

962
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,360
Speaker 1: and you know, defensive minded coach, better defense, decent o

963
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 1: line when healthy, you know. So, I think the Texans

964
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 1: will hang around, and you know, very I'm still juiced

965
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 1: up to the over, so I don't hate it, but

966
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 1: definitely looking for ways to fade the Colts. And I

967
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 1: do think the Texans are the third best team in

968
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 1: this division and they'll they'll look a lot different from

969
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,840
Speaker 1: just the tank version of them last year. I should I.

970
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 2: Should clarify that I'm not betting. I'm not betting the

971
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:29,160
Speaker 2: Texans over. Don't show any die now yet did like

972
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: it at five and a half slight lean to the

973
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 2: over got feeling. But also that's correlated with the Colts,

974
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 2: you know, finishing and last plus two hundred. Gonna need

975
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 2: the Texans to get at least kind of close to

976
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 2: that or if not over.

977
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 1: That's gonna wrap it up for this pod with the

978
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 1: AFC East and South. Just the recap. Stuck and I

979
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,840
Speaker 1: both like the Titans to within the division, uh stuck,

980
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 1: like the Colts to finish in last, the Patriots to

981
00:53:56,840 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 1: finish in last. We both lean under on the Jaguars

982
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 1: as well, and you know the rest of the AFC

983
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:08,480
Speaker 1: East glean over on the Bills, Dolphins and Jets a

984
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 1: little bit under. And that's gonna do it. And we'll

985
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 1: have the AFC West and AFC North episode out next,

986
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: so stay tuned for that, and then we'll follow it

987
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:21,239
Speaker 1: up with the NFC. Can find Stucky on X at

988
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 1: Stucky two at Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles

989
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 1: on the free award winning Action Network app where you

990
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 1: can follow our bets or you can track your own.

991
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:33,280
Speaker 1: Make sure to download that until next time. Get this money.

992
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:40,800
Speaker 2: But go.

993
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:45,400
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

994
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:47,960
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help Us

995
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:50,840
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