WEBVTT - The Human Guinea Pigs of Camp Lazear

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin Hello listeners, Happy Friday. Before we crack on with

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<v Speaker 1>this episode, I wanted to let you know that Pushkin

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<v Speaker 1>Plus subscribers can now hear an astonishing two part story

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<v Speaker 1>of disaster. A story of enormous egos and enormous mustaches,

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<v Speaker 1>of fraud and financial ruin, of hubris and despair. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a story of new technologies and of death on a

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<v Speaker 1>massive scale, and ultimately a story of understated genius. What's

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<v Speaker 1>this story all about? A war? A revolution? No, something

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<v Speaker 1>even bigger a canal. After you've finished listening to this

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<v Speaker 1>cautionary tale, you might like to check it out for Now,

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<v Speaker 1>on with our episode and a quest to understand how

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<v Speaker 1>the gruesome disease of yellow fever spreads. John Moran enters

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<v Speaker 1>Building number two. It's a simple timber hut with just

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<v Speaker 1>one room measuring fourteen feet by twenty. Dividing the room

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<v Speaker 1>in two is a fine, strong wire mesh with holes

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<v Speaker 1>of a fiftieth and an inch. Moran is wearing a

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<v Speaker 1>night shirt, nothing else. He lies down on the bed

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<v Speaker 1>around him buzz mosquitoes fifteen mosquitoes to be precise. Soon

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<v Speaker 1>one lands on his hand. He doesn't try to squish

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<v Speaker 1>it or flick it off. The mosquito slides its proboscis

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<v Speaker 1>through John Moran's skin and sucks his blood. On the

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<v Speaker 1>other side of the wire net from Moran and the

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<v Speaker 1>mosquitoes sits. Major Walter reed, he could tell you the

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<v Speaker 1>life story of every one of those mosquitoes. They've been

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<v Speaker 1>sucking the blood of people who are sick with yellow fever.

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<v Speaker 1>We're in Cuba, in an improvised U. S Army camp,

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<v Speaker 1>just outside Havana. It's the twenty first of December nineteen hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>Four days later, on Christmas morning, John Moran wakes up

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<v Speaker 1>with chills and a headache. He tries to eat his

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas lunch, but he has no appetite. By the afternoon,

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<v Speaker 1>his temperatures climbed to one hundred and three. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>yellow fever? Moran was twenty four years old. He'd come

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<v Speaker 1>to Cuba with the US Army, but left to get

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<v Speaker 1>a civilian job as a clerk. It pays better, and

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<v Speaker 1>Moran is trying to save money to take a degree

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<v Speaker 1>in medicine. A few weeks earlier, when Major Reid had

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<v Speaker 1>let it be known that he was looking for volunteers

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<v Speaker 1>for his mosquito experiments. Moran's old army friends had made

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<v Speaker 1>sure he knew about it. Reed will pay you, They

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<v Speaker 1>told him several months worth of salary. John Moran knew

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<v Speaker 1>very well how deadly yellow fever can be. It had

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<v Speaker 1>just killed the clerk who.

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<v Speaker 2>Worked next to him.

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<v Speaker 1>He thought about it, then went to introduce himself to

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<v Speaker 1>Major Reed. I want to volunteer, said Moran. And I

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<v Speaker 1>don't want money. I want to do it for science,

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<v Speaker 1>for humanity. Major Reed looked at John Moran.

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<v Speaker 3>I take my head off to you.

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<v Speaker 1>He said. John Moran was bravely taking a risk for

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<v Speaker 1>noble motives. Are we too scared to let people take

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<v Speaker 1>risks like that? Today? I'm Tim Harford and you're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to cautionary tales. What's it like to have yellow fever?

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<v Speaker 1>Here's one victim describing the onset of their symptoms. It

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<v Speaker 1>seemed as if every bone in my body had been crushed.

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<v Speaker 1>My spine felt twisted, and my head swollen, and my

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<v Speaker 1>eyes felt as if they would pop out of my head.

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<v Speaker 1>Even the ends of my fingers felt as though they

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<v Speaker 1>would snap off. If that's as bad as it gets,

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<v Speaker 1>you're one of the lucky ones. In a week or two,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll be okay again, But about fifteen percent of people

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<v Speaker 1>aren't lucky. Their illness develops a second, much more serious phase.

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<v Speaker 1>Your skin turns yellow from jaundice. You're delirious from fever.

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<v Speaker 1>You start to bleed, perhaps from your eyes or your gums,

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<v Speaker 1>or perhaps inside your stomach. So when you vomit, your

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<v Speaker 1>vomit black organs start to fail. There's no treatment. If

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<v Speaker 1>this second phase takes hold, your chance of surviving is

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<v Speaker 1>little more than fifty to fifty. No wonder. Yellow fever

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<v Speaker 1>once caused such terror in America's port cities. Outbreaks didn't

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<v Speaker 1>always spread far, but when they did, they were devastating.

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<v Speaker 1>In seventeen ninety three, yellow fever decimated Philadelphia, killing five

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people, one tenth of the population. In eighteen fifty three,

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<v Speaker 1>it did the same in Your Orleans. Where it came

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<v Speaker 1>from was clear enough ships from the Caribbean in the summer.

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<v Speaker 1>But once it had arrived, how did it spread? Was

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<v Speaker 1>it person to person contact? In Philadelphia, people stopped shaking hands,

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<v Speaker 1>Many shrank with affright at even the offer of a hand,

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<v Speaker 1>observed one writer. At the time, acquaintances and friends avoided

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<v Speaker 1>each other in the streets and only signified their regard

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<v Speaker 1>by a cold nod. Or did yellow fever spread through

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<v Speaker 1>something in the air. In New Orleans, the authorities burned

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<v Speaker 1>barrels of tar and whiskey to try to clear the toxins.

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<v Speaker 1>Or did it spread through contaminated objects. During the Civil War,

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<v Speaker 1>a Confederate doctor plotted an early attempt at bioterrorism. He

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<v Speaker 1>gathered clothes from people who died of yellow fever and

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<v Speaker 1>tried to ship them to cities in the North. He

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<v Speaker 1>even sent a suitcase full to Abraham Lincoln. The assassination

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<v Speaker 1>attempt failed. The doctor was later elected governor of Kentucky.

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<v Speaker 1>By nineteen hundred, the question of how yellow fever spread

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<v Speaker 1>had become urgent for the US Army. The US had

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<v Speaker 1>occupied Cuba, a hot bed of yellow fever. They had

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out what to do to keep the troops

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<v Speaker 1>as safe as possible. They set up a commission, at

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<v Speaker 1>its head, Major Walter Reid. It just investigated how typhoid

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<v Speaker 1>spreads on army bases. He had concluded rightly that preventing

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<v Speaker 1>typhoid was all about sanitation. Build the trenes wash hands.

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<v Speaker 1>But the army had been improving sanitation in Cuba, and

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<v Speaker 1>rates of yellow fever were staying stubbornly high. What worked

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<v Speaker 1>for typhoid didn't work for yellow fever, So what were

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<v Speaker 1>they missing? There were theories and puzzles, like the curious

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<v Speaker 1>case of the court martialed soldier. He was kept in

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<v Speaker 1>a cell on a military race, closely guarded, so they

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<v Speaker 1>knew for sure that he hadn't had contact with anyone

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<v Speaker 1>else who'd been ill. Yet still he caught it and died.

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<v Speaker 1>It was as if the disease had somehow flown in

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<v Speaker 1>through the bars of the cell window. Strange. Major Reid

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<v Speaker 1>chose colleagues to assist him. His old friend James Carroll,

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<v Speaker 1>a brilliant young doctor Jesse Lazier. They'd go to Cuba

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<v Speaker 1>and try to work it out. There was one theory

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<v Speaker 1>that could explain the case of the court martialed soldier.

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<v Speaker 1>For twenty years, a Cuban doctor had been tirelessly championing

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<v Speaker 1>his idea that a certain species of mosquito spread yellow fever.

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<v Speaker 1>It was plausible enough on the face of it. Another

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<v Speaker 1>species of mosquito had just been discovered to transmit malaria,

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<v Speaker 1>why not yellow fever too. The problem was that the

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<v Speaker 1>Cuban doctor had been trying for twenty years to prove

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<v Speaker 1>his theory, with no success. He bred mosquitoes and let

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<v Speaker 1>them feed on yellow fever patients. Then he persuaded nearly

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred people to be bitten by those mosquitoes. If

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<v Speaker 1>that seems like an insane thing to agree to, remember

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<v Speaker 1>that it can't have seemed that much of a risk.

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<v Speaker 1>Yellow fever was common, so were mosquitoes, and hardly anyone

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<v Speaker 1>bought the idea that the two were linked, And with

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<v Speaker 1>every new volunteer, the doctor's theory seemed less and less

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<v Speaker 1>likely to be true. Only a few of those bitten

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<v Speaker 1>got ill, and most of them had symptoms that were

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<v Speaker 1>hard to diagnose with confidence. They might have had a

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<v Speaker 1>mildcare of yellow fever, or it might have been something else.

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<v Speaker 1>It was hard to say. Just one volunteer unmistakably got

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<v Speaker 1>yellow fever soon after the mosquito bite, and who could

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<v Speaker 1>be sure that wasn't a coincidence. He might have got

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<v Speaker 1>it somewhere else. So the evidence wasn't promising, But Major

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<v Speaker 1>Reed and his colleagues wanted to test the theory for themselves.

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<v Speaker 1>They visited the Cuban doctor who gave them some mosquito

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<v Speaker 1>eggs hid bread. The eggs were.

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<v Speaker 4>A jet black color, one end rounded and blunt, while

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<v Speaker 4>the other is slightly pointed, the whole closely resembling a

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<v Speaker 4>cancheedah cigar.

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<v Speaker 1>Put them in water, said the Cuban doctor, and in

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<v Speaker 1>ten to twelve days you'll have mosquitoes. Reed put his

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<v Speaker 1>young colleague Jesse Lazier in charge. That made sense. Laziir

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<v Speaker 1>had worked on malaria. He knew mosquitoes hatched the eggs,

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<v Speaker 1>and kept each mosquito in its own test tube plugged

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<v Speaker 1>with cotton. He'd take them to a hospital with a

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<v Speaker 1>yellow fever ward, sit by the bedside of a patient,

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<v Speaker 1>remove the cotton plug, and put the open end of

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<v Speaker 1>the test tube to the patient's skin. He'd flick the

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<v Speaker 1>test tube to get the mosquito moving. Once the mosquito

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<v Speaker 1>had drunk its fill of the patient's blood, he'd plug

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<v Speaker 1>the test tube again. Could these mosquitoes now infect someone

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<v Speaker 1>with yellow fever? There was only one way to find out.

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<v Speaker 1>Lazir put a test tube on his arm and let

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<v Speaker 1>the mosquito feed on him. An army doctor said he'd

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<v Speaker 1>take a bite two. How risky was it really? The

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<v Speaker 1>Cuban doctor had done this to nearly one hundred people,

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<v Speaker 1>and almost all had been fine. The odds seemed firmly

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<v Speaker 1>in their favor. Days passed, and Lazir and the army

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<v Speaker 1>doctor remained in perfect health. Other soldiers volunteered too, nobody

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<v Speaker 1>got ill. Lazier was fast giving up on the theory.

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<v Speaker 1>He told his colleague on the Commission, James Carroll, and

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<v Speaker 1>now one of his carefully nurtured mosquitoes seemed about to die.

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<v Speaker 1>It had sucked the blood of one yellow fever patient,

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<v Speaker 1>but had since been refusing to feed again. It was

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<v Speaker 1>listless without another blood meal, it wouldn't last for long.

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<v Speaker 1>Carol had never believed in the mosquito theory. Put your

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<v Speaker 1>mosquito on me, he said, I'll see if I can

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<v Speaker 1>feed it to keep it going for you. There were

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<v Speaker 1>two things Jesse Lazier and James Carroll didn't know. They

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<v Speaker 1>didn't know that for a mosquito to pass on yellow fever,

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<v Speaker 1>it needs to have fed on someone in the first

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<v Speaker 1>three days of their infection. Lazier had often fed his

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<v Speaker 1>mosquitoes on patients who had been sick for longer than that.

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<v Speaker 1>Then it takes at least twelve days for the mosquito

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<v Speaker 1>to incubate the virus so it can pass it on

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<v Speaker 1>when it bites someone else. Laziir generally hadn't been waiting

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<v Speaker 1>that long before he put his mosquitoes onto healthy volunteers.

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<v Speaker 1>Lazier passed James Carroll the test tube with the ailing mosquito.

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<v Speaker 1>As it happened, precisely, twelve days had passed since this

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<v Speaker 1>mosquito had fed on a yellow fever patient. According to

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<v Speaker 1>Lazier's notes, a patient who had been on day two

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<v Speaker 1>of his illness, Carol, rolled up his sleeve. Lazier put

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<v Speaker 1>the test tube to Carol's arm. The mosquito didn't move.

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<v Speaker 1>Lazier tapped the test tube to rouse it. Still nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>Lazier shrugged and began to take the test tube away.

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<v Speaker 1>Give it here, said Carol. He held the test tube

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<v Speaker 1>to his arm and waited patiently until at last, the

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<v Speaker 1>sluggish mosquito fluttered onto his arm and slipped its proboscis

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<v Speaker 1>through his skin. Cautionary, tails will be back in a moment.

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<v Speaker 1>Three days after Jesse Lazier's ailing mosquito had fared on

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<v Speaker 1>James Carroll's blood, the mosquito was doing well. So was

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<v Speaker 1>James Carroll. He was enjoying a swim in the warm

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<v Speaker 1>sea off a Cuban beach when I felt as sudden

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<v Speaker 1>chill and a crushing headache. By the next day, Carol

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<v Speaker 1>had been taken to hospital. He was running a fever

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<v Speaker 1>of one hundred and five and trying to say something

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<v Speaker 1>about a mosquito. The nurse couldn't follow it. He must

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<v Speaker 1>be delirious. Jesse Lazier must have felt mortified. He had

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<v Speaker 1>failed time and again to produce a case of yellow fever.

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<v Speaker 1>Had he finally succeeded when he wasn't even trying? Laziir

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<v Speaker 1>sought out James Carroll's notebook. He wanted to see what

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<v Speaker 1>Carol had been doing for the last few days. If

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<v Speaker 1>Carol hadn't left the camp, which was fever free, that

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<v Speaker 1>would point convincingly to the mosquito as the cause of

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<v Speaker 1>the infection. But Carol's notebook said he had been visiting

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<v Speaker 1>hospital wards and autopsy rooms where yellow fever victims were dissected.

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<v Speaker 1>Skeptics would say that he could have got it anywhere. Still,

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<v Speaker 1>at least Lazier now had a lead a mosquito in

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<v Speaker 1>a test tube that might have given yellow fever to

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<v Speaker 1>James Carroll. Could that mosquito give it to someone else?

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<v Speaker 1>Lazier needed another volunteer, and he soon found one in

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<v Speaker 1>the army camp. The young soldier expressed curiosity about his work.

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<v Speaker 3>You're still fallen with mosquitoes.

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<v Speaker 1>Doctor, yes, said Lazier. Then will you take a bite? Sure,

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<v Speaker 1>replied the soldier.

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<v Speaker 3>I ain't scared of them.

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<v Speaker 1>The soldier said he hadn't been off the camp in

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<v Speaker 1>two months. That was perfect. Lazier brought the test tube

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<v Speaker 1>with the mosquito that had bitten James Carroll and put

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<v Speaker 1>it to the soldier's arm. Five days later, the soldier

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<v Speaker 1>began to feel unwell. It's hard to predict how badly

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<v Speaker 1>you'll get yellow fever. We now know there are different strains,

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<v Speaker 1>some deadlier than others, but the younger you are, the

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<v Speaker 1>better your chances. Children would often get it mildly and

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<v Speaker 1>then be immune for life. The soldier was young and

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<v Speaker 1>lucky his case was mild. James Carroll was older, and

0:17:30.050 --> 0:17:34.330
<v Speaker 1>he was having a rougher time, still in his hospital bed,

0:17:34.650 --> 0:17:38.770
<v Speaker 1>writhing in pain and burning up. Nurses giving him ice

0:17:38.930 --> 0:17:43.370
<v Speaker 1>cold enemies to try to bring his fever down. Jesse

0:17:43.530 --> 0:17:48.450
<v Speaker 1>Lazier was desperately worried about James Carroll, but he was

0:17:48.490 --> 0:17:52.890
<v Speaker 1>excited too. I rather think I am on the track

0:17:53.130 --> 0:17:56.930
<v Speaker 1>of the real germ, he wrote back home. But nothing

0:17:57.010 --> 0:18:01.370
<v Speaker 1>must be said as yet, not even a hint. And

0:18:01.410 --> 0:18:09.810
<v Speaker 1>then the story gets murky. The Yellow Fever COMMISSI remember,

0:18:10.050 --> 0:18:13.890
<v Speaker 1>was headed by Major Walter Reid. Where was Major Reid?

0:18:14.010 --> 0:18:18.930
<v Speaker 1>While all this drama was unfolding in Cuba? Reid was

0:18:19.010 --> 0:18:22.530
<v Speaker 1>back in America. He had to finish his big report

0:18:22.610 --> 0:18:25.690
<v Speaker 1>on typhoid and present it to his bosses in Washington,

0:18:25.770 --> 0:18:29.650
<v Speaker 1>d c. He got a telegram describing his old friend

0:18:29.810 --> 0:18:32.130
<v Speaker 1>James Carroll's bite and illness.

0:18:32.970 --> 0:18:36.650
<v Speaker 2>He wrote back, I cannot begin to describe my mental

0:18:36.730 --> 0:18:41.770
<v Speaker 2>distress over this most unfortunate turn of affairs. The next

0:18:41.770 --> 0:18:46.850
<v Speaker 2>piece of news was more positive. Carol at last had

0:18:46.890 --> 0:18:51.210
<v Speaker 2>begun to pull through. His fever was down. There'd been

0:18:51.250 --> 0:18:55.170
<v Speaker 2>none of the dreaded black vomit. He was weak, but

0:18:55.290 --> 0:18:58.930
<v Speaker 2>he'd live. Read fired off a letter.

0:18:59.570 --> 0:19:05.730
<v Speaker 5>My dear Carol Hip Hurrah, God be praised. I can

0:19:05.850 --> 0:19:09.250
<v Speaker 5>never recall such a sense of relief in all my life.

0:19:09.850 --> 0:19:13.170
<v Speaker 5>I shall simply go out and get boiling drunk. God

0:19:13.170 --> 0:19:14.130
<v Speaker 5>bless you, my boy.

0:19:14.930 --> 0:19:20.410
<v Speaker 1>And then another telegram Jesse Lazier had got yellow fever.

0:19:21.450 --> 0:19:31.650
<v Speaker 1>The message was blunt, severe case. What had happened? According

0:19:31.690 --> 0:19:36.010
<v Speaker 1>to Jesse Lazier, this is what had happened. He was

0:19:36.130 --> 0:19:39.530
<v Speaker 1>in a hospital at the bedside of a yellow fever patient,

0:19:40.010 --> 0:19:43.650
<v Speaker 1>holding a test tube to the patient's skin. The mosquito

0:19:43.730 --> 0:19:47.570
<v Speaker 1>in the tube had just started to feed. Then, said Lazier,

0:19:48.370 --> 0:19:52.010
<v Speaker 1>another mosquito that happened to be in the room landed

0:19:52.170 --> 0:19:55.730
<v Speaker 1>on his hand. He didn't want to move because he

0:19:55.770 --> 0:19:58.610
<v Speaker 1>had disturbed the insect in the test tube and have

0:19:58.730 --> 0:20:02.090
<v Speaker 1>to start all over again. And he thought the mosquito

0:20:02.130 --> 0:20:05.250
<v Speaker 1>on his hand was from a different species, one that

0:20:05.490 --> 0:20:09.650
<v Speaker 1>wasn't suspected of spreading the disease, so he let the

0:20:09.690 --> 0:20:18.810
<v Speaker 1>mosquito bite him. Historians think that isn't plausible. Lazia, remember,

0:20:19.250 --> 0:20:23.610
<v Speaker 1>was a mosquito expert. He'd studied malaria. He had been

0:20:23.610 --> 0:20:28.890
<v Speaker 1>spending day after day intently observing his mosquitoes in test tubes.

0:20:29.490 --> 0:20:35.170
<v Speaker 1>He affectionately called them his birds. In their book Yellow Jack,

0:20:35.690 --> 0:20:40.010
<v Speaker 1>the authors John Pierce and James Writer say it simply

0:20:40.050 --> 0:20:43.810
<v Speaker 1>does not make sense that Lazier did not recognize what

0:20:43.930 --> 0:20:49.010
<v Speaker 1>species of mosquito had landed on his own hand. What

0:20:49.210 --> 0:20:57.570
<v Speaker 1>historians think happened is this Jesse Lazier experimented on himself again.

0:20:59.090 --> 0:21:03.650
<v Speaker 1>Today he claimed he had been bitten by accident. September thirteenth,

0:21:03.970 --> 0:21:10.130
<v Speaker 1>nineteen hundred. Lazia's notebook contains a cryptic entry. Up till

0:21:10.170 --> 0:21:13.170
<v Speaker 1>then he had recorded the names of all his volunteers,

0:21:13.850 --> 0:21:16.650
<v Speaker 1>along with the history of the mosquitoes that fed on them.

0:21:17.890 --> 0:21:22.690
<v Speaker 1>This entry simply said, guinea pig number one in the

0:21:22.770 --> 0:21:27.050
<v Speaker 1>mosquito it had fed on a patient in the second

0:21:27.130 --> 0:21:32.170
<v Speaker 1>day of his illness, fourteen days earlier. If Lazier had

0:21:32.210 --> 0:21:36.330
<v Speaker 1>formed a theory about the timelines required to transmit yellow fever,

0:21:36.930 --> 0:21:40.810
<v Speaker 1>this was exactly the mosquito he'd have chosen to put

0:21:40.850 --> 0:21:47.290
<v Speaker 1>that theory to the test. It's possible, of course, that

0:21:47.370 --> 0:21:51.090
<v Speaker 1>Lazier had suddenly decided to feed one of his mosquitoes

0:21:51.570 --> 0:21:55.130
<v Speaker 1>on an actual guinea pig, but as nobody on the

0:21:55.130 --> 0:21:59.410
<v Speaker 1>commission had ever discussed doing experiments on guinea pigs, it

0:21:59.450 --> 0:22:04.130
<v Speaker 1>seems unlikely. We can only presume that guinea pig number

0:22:04.130 --> 0:22:11.250
<v Speaker 1>one was Jesse Lazier. Why it on himself and why

0:22:11.370 --> 0:22:17.210
<v Speaker 1>hide it? We'll never know. Five days after guinea pig

0:22:17.330 --> 0:22:22.210
<v Speaker 1>number one was bitten, Jesse Lazier began to feel unwell.

0:22:23.770 --> 0:22:25.810
<v Speaker 1>He sat down to write a letter to his mother,

0:22:26.010 --> 0:22:29.010
<v Speaker 1>who was taking care of his wife back in America.

0:22:29.970 --> 0:22:33.290
<v Speaker 1>His wife had just given birth to their second child.

0:22:33.890 --> 0:22:35.330
<v Speaker 1>He didn't mention his illness.

0:22:36.250 --> 0:22:38.930
<v Speaker 4>Dear little Houston must be very cute.

0:22:38.970 --> 0:22:44.770
<v Speaker 1>He wrote. Houston was their toddler. The next day, Lazier

0:22:45.010 --> 0:22:49.330
<v Speaker 1>was carried to the hospital. James Carroll had recovered enough

0:22:49.490 --> 0:22:54.930
<v Speaker 1>just about to shuffle over to Lazier's bedside. I shall

0:22:54.930 --> 0:22:59.330
<v Speaker 1>never forget the expression of alarm in his eyes, he said.

0:23:01.210 --> 0:23:06.290
<v Speaker 1>Lazier's illness moved quickly to the deadly second stage. He

0:23:06.370 --> 0:23:09.890
<v Speaker 1>thrashed around so much nurses had to call for soldiers

0:23:09.930 --> 0:23:13.090
<v Speaker 1>to strap his wrists and ankles to the bed. He

0:23:13.170 --> 0:23:19.250
<v Speaker 1>began to convulse and vomit. The vomit was black. Jesse

0:23:19.330 --> 0:23:32.050
<v Speaker 1>Lazier was thirty four years old when yellow fever killed him.

0:23:32.250 --> 0:23:35.850
<v Speaker 1>As Major Walter Reed prepared to return to Cuba, he

0:23:35.930 --> 0:23:38.650
<v Speaker 1>had a problem. It wasn't just that one of his

0:23:38.810 --> 0:23:41.690
<v Speaker 1>team was dead and another would need a long time

0:23:41.730 --> 0:23:45.930
<v Speaker 1>off to recover. Their self. Sacrifice had gone to waste.

0:23:46.850 --> 0:23:50.890
<v Speaker 1>They'd been brave in getting bitten, but they hadn't been scientific,

0:23:51.450 --> 0:23:55.050
<v Speaker 1>as Reid explained in a frustrated letter to the convalescing

0:23:55.290 --> 0:23:56.130
<v Speaker 1>James Carroll.

0:23:57.170 --> 0:24:00.770
<v Speaker 3>If you, my dear doctor, had, prior to your bait,

0:24:00.930 --> 0:24:03.730
<v Speaker 3>remained at the camp for ten days, then we would

0:24:03.770 --> 0:24:07.690
<v Speaker 3>have a clear case. But you didn't. You went just

0:24:07.810 --> 0:24:11.010
<v Speaker 3>where you might have contracted the disease from another sauce.

0:24:11.970 --> 0:24:16.050
<v Speaker 1>And what about Jesse Lazier. According to his own account,

0:24:16.490 --> 0:24:20.650
<v Speaker 1>he had been bitten while at a yellow fever hospital.

0:24:20.770 --> 0:24:24.570
<v Speaker 1>For goodness sake, that knocks his case out, wrote Reed.

0:24:25.330 --> 0:24:29.210
<v Speaker 3>I mean, as a thoroughly scientific experiment.

0:24:29.930 --> 0:24:33.050
<v Speaker 1>There was the young soldier Lazier had infected with the

0:24:33.050 --> 0:24:38.010
<v Speaker 1>same mosquito as Carol. His case was highly suggestive, but

0:24:38.090 --> 0:24:43.010
<v Speaker 1>not conclusive, not yet to remove any doubt. Walter Reed

0:24:43.170 --> 0:24:47.290
<v Speaker 1>was going to have to do more thoroughly scientific experiments,

0:24:48.370 --> 0:24:56.170
<v Speaker 1>and for that he'd need more volunteers. Cautionary tales will return.

0:25:07.210 --> 0:25:10.650
<v Speaker 1>Walter Reed needed a sight to construct a new camp.

0:25:11.330 --> 0:25:13.290
<v Speaker 1>It had to be in a part of Cuba that

0:25:13.570 --> 0:25:17.570
<v Speaker 1>wasn't known for yellow fever. He needed well drained land

0:25:17.810 --> 0:25:21.690
<v Speaker 1>with no stagnant water for mosquitoes to breed. He couldn't

0:25:21.770 --> 0:25:25.530
<v Speaker 1>risk stray mosquitoes buzzing in to mess up his experiments.

0:25:26.170 --> 0:25:29.770
<v Speaker 1>He found a two acre site and brought in brand

0:25:29.890 --> 0:25:33.010
<v Speaker 1>new tents and equipment so nobody could say they might

0:25:33.010 --> 0:25:36.930
<v Speaker 1>have been contaminated. He had the workers quarantined to make

0:25:36.970 --> 0:25:40.730
<v Speaker 1>sure they weren't harboring the disease. He then had them

0:25:40.730 --> 0:25:46.130
<v Speaker 1>tested for fever three times a day. The workers put

0:25:46.370 --> 0:25:51.250
<v Speaker 1>up the tents and two simple wooden buildings in honor

0:25:51.370 --> 0:25:56.930
<v Speaker 1>of their fallen colleague. They called it Camp Laziar. Building

0:25:57.010 --> 0:26:00.850
<v Speaker 1>number one had nothing to do with mosquitoes. Reid wanted

0:26:00.890 --> 0:26:05.050
<v Speaker 1>to disprove once and for all the idea that contaminated

0:26:05.130 --> 0:26:08.810
<v Speaker 1>clothing could spread yellow fever. It was a simple wooden

0:26:08.850 --> 0:26:13.970
<v Speaker 1>shed fourteen feet by twenty with shuttered windows. By now

0:26:14.250 --> 0:26:18.850
<v Speaker 1>it was November, the weather was cooling down. Reed wanted

0:26:18.850 --> 0:26:22.370
<v Speaker 1>a fair test in tropical conditions, so he had a

0:26:22.410 --> 0:26:26.090
<v Speaker 1>stove installed in the room to keep the temperature above

0:26:26.290 --> 0:26:32.330
<v Speaker 1>ninety degrees fahrenheit. Reed got three volunteers to go into

0:26:32.370 --> 0:26:36.490
<v Speaker 1>the dark and sweltering hut with a tightly sealed trunk.

0:26:36.810 --> 0:26:39.290
<v Speaker 1>It had sent from the yellow fever ward at a

0:26:39.330 --> 0:26:45.970
<v Speaker 1>nearby hospital. The trunk contained bed sheets and blankets, all

0:26:46.650 --> 0:26:51.530
<v Speaker 1>soiled with a liberal quantity of black vomit urine and

0:26:51.690 --> 0:26:56.650
<v Speaker 1>fecal matter. The three men cracked open the trunk and

0:26:56.770 --> 0:27:02.290
<v Speaker 1>straightway ran back outside, gasping and wretching, and got their breath,

0:27:03.050 --> 0:27:07.530
<v Speaker 1>stealed their nerves, and went back in. They took the

0:27:07.570 --> 0:27:11.330
<v Speaker 1>fetid sheets and blankets out of the trunk and gave

0:27:11.370 --> 0:27:15.170
<v Speaker 1>them all a good shake. If there were contagious particles

0:27:15.570 --> 0:27:19.010
<v Speaker 1>that ought to spread them around. Then they put the

0:27:19.050 --> 0:27:22.090
<v Speaker 1>sheets on the beds in the hut and slept on

0:27:22.170 --> 0:27:24.930
<v Speaker 1>them for twenty nights.

0:27:25.610 --> 0:27:27.850
<v Speaker 4>We all felt like we were coming down with yellow

0:27:27.930 --> 0:27:29.210
<v Speaker 4>fever every day.

0:27:29.530 --> 0:27:35.090
<v Speaker 1>Said one, but they didn't. It was conclusive proof that

0:27:35.170 --> 0:27:40.250
<v Speaker 1>this long held theory was wrong. The Kentucky Doctor's suitcase

0:27:40.530 --> 0:27:45.450
<v Speaker 1>could never have killed Abraham Lincoln Walter Reed had been

0:27:45.490 --> 0:27:49.090
<v Speaker 1>confident that the volunteers in Building number one were never

0:27:49.290 --> 0:27:55.170
<v Speaker 1>in danger of death, just discomfort. The mosquito experiments for

0:27:55.330 --> 0:28:00.970
<v Speaker 1>a different matter, Reid had studied Jesse Lazier's notebook. He'd

0:28:01.010 --> 0:28:05.210
<v Speaker 1>talked to the young soldier Lazier had infected, and he

0:28:05.210 --> 0:28:10.370
<v Speaker 1>had drawn the correct conclusion. He needed an incubation period

0:28:10.770 --> 0:28:15.850
<v Speaker 1>of at least twelve days. The new knowledge meant Reed's

0:28:15.890 --> 0:28:20.410
<v Speaker 1>experiments at Camp Lazier wouldn't be like Jesse Lazier's earlier,

0:28:20.530 --> 0:28:24.250
<v Speaker 1>more casual attempts, when the volunteers could take comfort in

0:28:24.410 --> 0:28:28.010
<v Speaker 1>odds of one in one hundred. Red knew that his

0:28:28.170 --> 0:28:33.090
<v Speaker 1>volunteers were very likely to get yellow fever. He wanted

0:28:33.090 --> 0:28:36.650
<v Speaker 1>them to know that. So Reid had a form typed

0:28:36.770 --> 0:28:41.090
<v Speaker 1>up spelling out the risks, and every time someone asked

0:28:41.090 --> 0:28:47.850
<v Speaker 1>a volunteer he got them to sign it. Informed consent

0:28:48.210 --> 0:28:54.810
<v Speaker 1>is standard practice. Now Reid was its pioneer. But why

0:28:54.850 --> 0:28:59.810
<v Speaker 1>would anyone sign We heard already the young idealist John

0:28:59.890 --> 0:29:05.330
<v Speaker 1>Moran explain his reasons for science and humanity, and Moran

0:29:05.450 --> 0:29:08.610
<v Speaker 1>didn't want the money, even though he was saving hard

0:29:08.650 --> 0:29:12.330
<v Speaker 1>to go to medical school, and in today's terms, Reed

0:29:12.490 --> 0:29:17.090
<v Speaker 1>was offering many thousands of dollars. Others did want the money,

0:29:17.450 --> 0:29:21.250
<v Speaker 1>and they had another pragmatic reason too. If you moved

0:29:21.290 --> 0:29:24.530
<v Speaker 1>to Cuba from a place without yellow fever, so you

0:29:24.530 --> 0:29:28.010
<v Speaker 1>weren't immune from childhood, you felt sure that you'd get

0:29:28.090 --> 0:29:32.090
<v Speaker 1>it sooner or later, So why not take your chances now,

0:29:32.610 --> 0:29:36.210
<v Speaker 1>knowing you'd have the most attentive medical care. The US

0:29:36.370 --> 0:29:44.730
<v Speaker 1>Army could offer. In March twenty twenty, the enormity of

0:29:44.810 --> 0:29:48.290
<v Speaker 1>the COVID pandemic was starting to dawn on the world.

0:29:49.250 --> 0:29:51.690
<v Speaker 1>Most of us were trying to make sense of the present,

0:29:52.370 --> 0:29:56.850
<v Speaker 1>but three academics were looking to the future. We're going

0:29:56.850 --> 0:30:00.930
<v Speaker 1>to need vaccines, they said, as quickly as possible. Those

0:30:01.010 --> 0:30:04.330
<v Speaker 1>vaccines were already being developed and would need to be tested,

0:30:05.010 --> 0:30:08.690
<v Speaker 1>but the traditional clinical trial might take a long time.

0:30:09.970 --> 0:30:13.130
<v Speaker 1>A big group of volunteers would receive either the new

0:30:13.210 --> 0:30:17.010
<v Speaker 1>vaccines or a placebo and would then go about their

0:30:17.090 --> 0:30:22.530
<v Speaker 1>daily lives. Some of them eventually would get COVID, allowing

0:30:22.610 --> 0:30:25.970
<v Speaker 1>scientists to figure out whether most of these cases were

0:30:26.010 --> 0:30:29.570
<v Speaker 1>in the placebo group, in which case the vaccine would

0:30:29.570 --> 0:30:33.130
<v Speaker 1>have worked. But since most people around the world were

0:30:33.170 --> 0:30:37.730
<v Speaker 1>trying very hard not to spread the virus, just waiting

0:30:37.850 --> 0:30:41.370
<v Speaker 1>for enough of those infections to happen by accident could

0:30:41.450 --> 0:30:47.370
<v Speaker 1>take months. Wouldn't it be quicker to deliberately expose your

0:30:47.450 --> 0:30:52.690
<v Speaker 1>volunteers to COVID. That's called a human challenge trial, and

0:30:52.730 --> 0:30:57.250
<v Speaker 1>they've often been used to develop other vaccines. Josh Morrison

0:30:57.410 --> 0:31:01.570
<v Speaker 1>ran a health nonprofit in New York. He thought ourd

0:31:01.650 --> 0:31:03.970
<v Speaker 1>volunteer to get COVID if it might speed up a

0:31:04.050 --> 0:31:07.370
<v Speaker 1>vaccine that could get life back to normal, would other

0:31:07.410 --> 0:31:12.370
<v Speaker 1>people too? He set up a website called One Day Sooner,

0:31:12.810 --> 0:31:17.410
<v Speaker 1>and words spread. Within weeks, tens of thousands of people

0:31:17.490 --> 0:31:21.770
<v Speaker 1>signed up to say they'd do it if someone asked them.

0:31:21.930 --> 0:31:25.570
<v Speaker 1>Some expressed motives much like John Moran's, They'd do it

0:31:25.610 --> 0:31:30.970
<v Speaker 1>for science, for humanity. Others were pragmatic. Like other yellow

0:31:30.970 --> 0:31:34.610
<v Speaker 1>fever volunteers. They said they thought they'd get COVID anyway,

0:31:34.810 --> 0:31:37.170
<v Speaker 1>and they liked the idea of getting it when doctors

0:31:37.170 --> 0:31:41.930
<v Speaker 1>and nurses would be watching them closely. But many decision

0:31:41.970 --> 0:31:46.330
<v Speaker 1>makers were wary about the idea of challenge trials for COVID.

0:31:47.050 --> 0:31:50.010
<v Speaker 1>They're usually used for diseases. We have a good idea

0:31:50.090 --> 0:31:54.690
<v Speaker 1>of how to treat at the time, we couldn't treat COVID.

0:31:55.410 --> 0:31:58.890
<v Speaker 1>So what said Josh Morrison? This is a global emergency.

0:31:59.570 --> 0:32:03.490
<v Speaker 1>We can't take the risk, said others. What if someone dies?

0:32:04.610 --> 0:32:08.050
<v Speaker 1>The debate rumbled on through the summer of twenty twenty.

0:32:09.250 --> 0:32:12.930
<v Speaker 1>Trials didn't happen for the first set of vaccines. They

0:32:13.010 --> 0:32:17.170
<v Speaker 1>were tested in the usual way. One Day Sooner became

0:32:17.250 --> 0:32:22.330
<v Speaker 1>an advocacy group for Challenge Trial volunteers. Later, they funded

0:32:22.370 --> 0:32:26.370
<v Speaker 1>researchers to ask how many lives might have been saved

0:32:26.530 --> 0:32:31.410
<v Speaker 1>if the first vaccines had come, say, thirty days earlier.

0:32:33.250 --> 0:32:38.650
<v Speaker 1>Sixty three thousand, the researchers estimated in the US and

0:32:38.930 --> 0:32:44.370
<v Speaker 1>UK alone. It's hard to be sure if Challenge trials

0:32:44.530 --> 0:32:48.570
<v Speaker 1>really would have given US vaccines thirty days earlier. But

0:32:49.050 --> 0:32:52.730
<v Speaker 1>this isn't really about COVID. It's about looking ahead to

0:32:52.770 --> 0:32:57.690
<v Speaker 1>the next pandemic and what we might learn one possible lesson.

0:32:58.370 --> 0:33:03.090
<v Speaker 1>Let's be more proactive about lining up challenge trials. Let's

0:33:03.130 --> 0:33:06.930
<v Speaker 1>be more hard headed about the trade offs when we

0:33:06.970 --> 0:33:10.570
<v Speaker 1>ask what if we have a trial and someone dies?

0:33:11.330 --> 0:33:14.530
<v Speaker 1>Let's also ask what if we don't have a trial

0:33:15.250 --> 0:33:20.410
<v Speaker 1>and sixty three thousand people die. We can't eliminate risk,

0:33:21.290 --> 0:33:24.530
<v Speaker 1>but we can take calculated risks in a way that

0:33:24.730 --> 0:33:29.730
<v Speaker 1>advances our knowledge. If we have another global emergency and

0:33:29.890 --> 0:33:34.730
<v Speaker 1>selfless volunteers again raise their hands, let's not allow their

0:33:34.770 --> 0:33:42.210
<v Speaker 1>bravery to go to waste. Jesse Lazier and James Carroll

0:33:42.650 --> 0:33:46.650
<v Speaker 1>wasted their bravery because they gave themselves yellow fever in

0:33:46.690 --> 0:33:52.290
<v Speaker 1>a way that scientifically proved nothing Whialter Reed was determined

0:33:52.410 --> 0:33:55.810
<v Speaker 1>not to waste the courage of his new volunteers, such

0:33:55.850 --> 0:34:00.450
<v Speaker 1>as John Moran. He needed to conduct experiments that nobody

0:34:00.450 --> 0:34:04.690
<v Speaker 1>would be able to nitpick. In Building number two, Red

0:34:04.810 --> 0:34:07.850
<v Speaker 1>wanted to put to rest the idea that led New

0:34:07.970 --> 0:34:12.650
<v Speaker 1>Orleans authorities to burn barrels of whiskey and tar, the

0:34:12.650 --> 0:34:16.370
<v Speaker 1>theory that yellow fever spreads through toxins in the air.

0:34:17.970 --> 0:34:21.690
<v Speaker 1>A fine, strong wire mesh ran down the middle of

0:34:21.730 --> 0:34:26.890
<v Speaker 1>the room. On one side fifteen mosquitoes and John Moran

0:34:27.730 --> 0:34:32.130
<v Speaker 1>on the other side. Not only read, but two more volunteers,

0:34:32.450 --> 0:34:36.570
<v Speaker 1>acting as controls. They slept in their half of the hut,

0:34:36.930 --> 0:34:41.570
<v Speaker 1>breathing the same air as John Moran. On Christmas Day,

0:34:42.250 --> 0:34:47.290
<v Speaker 1>John Moran got yellow fever. The other two never did.

0:34:48.650 --> 0:34:52.410
<v Speaker 1>Moran was young and lucky, His case was mild, and

0:34:52.450 --> 0:34:59.250
<v Speaker 1>he recovered. By early February nineteen oh one, Walter Reed

0:34:59.450 --> 0:35:04.170
<v Speaker 1>was ready to report the results of his thoroughly scientific experiments.

0:35:04.210 --> 0:35:07.650
<v Speaker 1>In a speech to a medical congress in Havana. He

0:35:07.770 --> 0:35:11.490
<v Speaker 1>explained how it proved that yellow fever didn't spread through

0:35:11.530 --> 0:35:16.010
<v Speaker 1>dirty objects, it didn't spread through the air, It spread

0:35:16.450 --> 0:35:17.410
<v Speaker 1>through mosquitoes.

0:35:18.570 --> 0:35:22.650
<v Speaker 2>The hall was Pecked, wrote Reed to his wife, the

0:35:22.730 --> 0:35:24.970
<v Speaker 2>applause long and hardy.

0:35:26.690 --> 0:35:31.130
<v Speaker 1>The authorities in Havana set up mosquito brigades to try

0:35:31.130 --> 0:35:34.490
<v Speaker 1>to rid the city of the mosquitoes that spread yellow fever.

0:35:35.250 --> 0:35:40.370
<v Speaker 1>They went from house to house. Most had no piped water. Instead,

0:35:40.930 --> 0:35:46.090
<v Speaker 1>people collected rainwater in open barrels. Mosquitoes laid their eggs

0:35:46.130 --> 0:35:50.090
<v Speaker 1>on the surface of that water. The mosquito brigades poured

0:35:50.250 --> 0:35:54.050
<v Speaker 1>oil on top. Just a thin film was enough to

0:35:54.050 --> 0:35:59.730
<v Speaker 1>suffocate the larvae. As the mosquitoes disappeared, so did the disease.

0:36:01.050 --> 0:36:05.570
<v Speaker 1>Over the previous ten years, Havana had averaged four hundred

0:36:05.610 --> 0:36:09.770
<v Speaker 1>and sixty two yellow fever deaths a year. In the

0:36:09.770 --> 0:36:18.170
<v Speaker 1>rest of nineteen o one, there were five. James Carroll

0:36:18.490 --> 0:36:22.250
<v Speaker 1>never fully recovered from his fight with yellow fever. His

0:36:22.410 --> 0:36:27.690
<v Speaker 1>heart failed. A few years later. Walter Reed died early too,

0:36:28.250 --> 0:36:32.810
<v Speaker 1>though not from yellow fever a ruptured appendix. His name

0:36:32.890 --> 0:36:36.810
<v Speaker 1>lives on in the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center

0:36:37.290 --> 0:36:42.290
<v Speaker 1>in Bethesda, Maryland. But I was curious what happened to

0:36:42.410 --> 0:36:47.170
<v Speaker 1>John Moran, the poster boy for selflessness with the dream

0:36:47.290 --> 0:36:51.930
<v Speaker 1>of being a doctor. I found an obituary from nineteen fifty.

0:36:52.970 --> 0:36:56.970
<v Speaker 1>Moran had lived to seventy four. He had settled in

0:36:57.010 --> 0:37:02.130
<v Speaker 1>Cuba and built a distinguished career as an oil man.

0:37:03.250 --> 0:37:07.330
<v Speaker 1>What happened to saving for medical school? Soon after his

0:37:07.450 --> 0:37:11.290
<v Speaker 1>bout of yellow fever? The obituary said, Moran took the

0:37:11.330 --> 0:37:14.370
<v Speaker 1>money he'd saved so far and invested it in a

0:37:14.410 --> 0:37:19.970
<v Speaker 1>get rich quick oil scheme. The scheme failed, Moran had

0:37:19.970 --> 0:37:23.330
<v Speaker 1>to give up on his ambition to study. He got

0:37:23.330 --> 0:37:26.650
<v Speaker 1>a job in the oil industry instead, and worked his

0:37:26.730 --> 0:37:31.690
<v Speaker 1>way up. I can't help wondering if he'd have felt

0:37:31.690 --> 0:37:35.450
<v Speaker 1>that need to gamble his savings, if only he'd taken

0:37:35.530 --> 0:37:41.610
<v Speaker 1>the payment from Walter Reed, he'd surely earned it. John

0:37:41.690 --> 0:37:46.930
<v Speaker 1>Moran risked his life for an experiment, then risked his

0:37:46.970 --> 0:37:53.090
<v Speaker 1>savings for his dream career. One risk paid off, one didn't.

0:37:53.490 --> 0:37:57.770
<v Speaker 1>That's the nature of risks. When Jesse Lazier and James

0:37:57.810 --> 0:38:00.730
<v Speaker 1>Carroll took the risk of being bitten by a mosquito,

0:38:01.570 --> 0:38:05.970
<v Speaker 1>we learned far too little because a proper scientific experiment

0:38:06.250 --> 0:38:10.130
<v Speaker 1>wasn't in place, And when the volunteers have one day sooner,

0:38:10.290 --> 0:38:12.330
<v Speaker 1>we're willing to take a similar risk. In the face

0:38:12.370 --> 0:38:16.650
<v Speaker 1>of COVID, we learned far too little yet again because

0:38:16.650 --> 0:38:21.970
<v Speaker 1>a proper scientific experiment just seemed too bold for policymakers

0:38:21.970 --> 0:38:26.570
<v Speaker 1>to approve. But there'll always be people who'll take risks

0:38:26.730 --> 0:38:31.010
<v Speaker 1>as a gift to help others. Shouldn't we be prepared

0:38:31.690 --> 0:38:46.730
<v Speaker 1>to accept that gift. The American Plague by Molly Caldwell

0:38:46.770 --> 0:38:50.450
<v Speaker 1>Crosby is a compelling history of yellow fever, as is

0:38:50.810 --> 0:38:54.570
<v Speaker 1>Yellowjack by John Pierce and James Writer. For a full

0:38:54.610 --> 0:38:57.890
<v Speaker 1>list of our sources, see the show notes at Timharford

0:38:57.930 --> 0:39:01.130
<v Speaker 1>dot com. If you enjoyed this tale, I recommend you

0:39:01.290 --> 0:39:04.250
<v Speaker 1>hop on over to pushkin Plus and check out my

0:39:04.410 --> 0:39:09.010
<v Speaker 1>brand new pair of episodes on the Panama Canal. Yellow Fever.

0:39:09.290 --> 0:39:12.890
<v Speaker 1>Greek's havoc on this mega project just one of many

0:39:12.930 --> 0:39:16.330
<v Speaker 1>obstacles faced by the French and the Americans on their

0:39:16.370 --> 0:39:25.010
<v Speaker 1>mission to dig a waterway across Central America. Cautionary Tales

0:39:25.090 --> 0:39:28.210
<v Speaker 1>is written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. It's

0:39:28.250 --> 0:39:31.890
<v Speaker 1>produced by Alice Fines with support from Marilyn Rust. The

0:39:31.970 --> 0:39:35.370
<v Speaker 1>sound design and original music is the work of Pascal Wise.

0:39:36.170 --> 0:39:40.010
<v Speaker 1>Sarah Nix edited the scripts. It features the voice talents

0:39:40.050 --> 0:39:44.330
<v Speaker 1>of Ben Crowe, Melanie Guttridge, Stella Harford, Jammy Saunders and

0:39:44.450 --> 0:39:48.290
<v Speaker 1>rufus Wright. The show also wouldn't have been possible without

0:39:48.330 --> 0:39:53.170
<v Speaker 1>the work of Jacob Weisberg, Ryan Dilly, Greta Cohne, Eric's handler,

0:39:53.450 --> 0:39:57.930
<v Speaker 1>Carrie Brody, and Christina Sullivan. Cautionary Tales is a production

0:39:58.130 --> 0:40:02.770
<v Speaker 1>of Pushkin Industries. It's recorded at Wardoor Studios in London

0:40:02.970 --> 0:40:07.050
<v Speaker 1>by Tom Berry. If you like the show, please remember

0:40:07.090 --> 0:40:11.210
<v Speaker 1>to share, rate and review, tell your friends and if

0:40:11.250 --> 0:40:13.610
<v Speaker 1>you want to hear the show ad free, sign up

0:40:13.650 --> 0:40:17.290
<v Speaker 1>for Pushkin Plus on the show page in Apple Podcasts

0:40:17.610 --> 0:40:21.130
<v Speaker 1>or at pushkin dot Fm, slash plus