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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall, You're in Washington alongside at Joe Matthew, and

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Speaker 2: we have One Eye today focused on China after President

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Speaker 2: Trump just moments ago in the Cabinet room was speaking

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Speaker 2: with the Australian Prime Minister about storing up ties to

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Speaker 2: compete with China when it comes to rare earths and

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Speaker 2: rare earths have really taken center stage in the negotiations

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Speaker 2: with China as both sides are appearing to re engage

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Speaker 2: ahead of this November tenth deadline for the tariff truce.

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Speaker 2: We heard from President Trump outlining some of his key

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Speaker 2: demands he wants to see from Beijing as he heads

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Speaker 2: into this highly anticipated meeting with the Chinese president next week.

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Speaker 3: If they don't do business with us, I think China's

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Speaker 3: in big trouble. I'll be honest with you. I think

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Speaker 3: China is I don't know that they even make it.

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Speaker 3: I really do.

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Speaker 4: I believe that they're in big trouble, and I don't

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Speaker 4: want them to be in big trouble. I want them

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Speaker 4: to do great. I want them to thrive. But we

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Speaker 4: have to thrive together. It's a two way street. I

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Speaker 4: think when we finish our meetings and it's going to

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Speaker 4: be a big deal. I'm meeting with a lot of

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Speaker 4: other countries, but this seems to be the one that

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Speaker 4: people are very interested in. I think when we finish

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Speaker 4: our meetings in South Korea, China and I will have

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Speaker 4: a really fair and really great trade deal together.

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Speaker 5: All right, from the Cabinet room a little while ago.

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Speaker 6: He's got the Australian Prime Minister in the House today

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Speaker 6: and they're going to do a working lunch, having spent

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Speaker 6: some time taking questions from reporters a little bit earlier

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Speaker 6: with us now in Washington, having listened to that conversation,

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Speaker 6: as Wendy Benjaminson back with us for the first time

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Speaker 6: in a minute, Bloomberg's senior editor, it's great to see

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Speaker 6: Wendy as we see another world leader come through the

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Speaker 6: revolving door. As Marjorie Taylor Green puts it, it's pretty remarkable. Here,

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Speaker 6: we're going to talk to Bob McNally in a moment

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Speaker 6: about the cost of oil, which is precipitously lower, to

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Speaker 6: the point where the White House is kicking out news

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Speaker 6: releases today talking about two dollars and ninety nine cent gas.

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Speaker 6: That's the most domestically focused message that's coming out of

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Speaker 6: a geo politically focused White House.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 6: The president's been kind of all over the place in

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Speaker 6: the middle of a government shutdown.

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Speaker 5: What do you make of that?

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Speaker 7: Well, it's an interesting dynamic. I think he feels much

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Speaker 7: more comfortable in that space than he did in his

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Speaker 7: first term. I think he's he may be frustrated. Well,

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Speaker 7: he may have just decided the shutdown. You know, he

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Speaker 7: believes his own talking points right, that the shutdown is

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Speaker 7: indeed the work of the Democrats, whether it is or not,

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Speaker 7: and therefore he'll just let them do their thing while

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Speaker 7: he goes off. And you know, does has all these

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Speaker 7: various projects around the world. I wonder when at some

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Speaker 7: point his political base doesn't say what happened to America first?

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Speaker 7: His argument is one, America first is quote whatever I

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Speaker 7: say it is as a few months ago. And two

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Speaker 7: he keeps saying that there will be a benefit to

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Speaker 7: two US consumers and things like that from all of

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Speaker 7: these tariffs. We haven't quite seen that yet, but we'll

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Speaker 7: see what we'll see if that ever materializes.

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Speaker 2: Wendy, when we're looking holistically at where these negotiations with

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Speaker 2: China stand. Now, we know that we're up against this

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Speaker 2: deadline perhaps November one. Now President Trump threatening maybe up

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Speaker 2: to one hundred and fifty five percent tear if that

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Speaker 2: comes against November tenth, which is the deadline for that

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Speaker 2: broader trade truce. We know the Treasury Secretary is meeting

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Speaker 2: in Malaysia this week with his trade counterpart. What sort

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Speaker 2: of details do you think we're going to be able

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Speaker 2: to glean from that as we set up to this

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Speaker 2: highly anticipated meeting with President Trump the next week with

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Speaker 2: his counterpart.

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Speaker 7: Right, well, we know from what he said on the

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Speaker 7: plane last night that he is interested in the soybeans,

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Speaker 7: in getting China once again by American soybeans, and getting

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Speaker 7: China to loosen it's on precedent to hold on rare

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Speaker 7: earth minerals, and you know, some other some other trade

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Speaker 7: deals that that he wants to get done. I think

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Speaker 7: he's may have seen the threatening these massive I mean

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Speaker 7: one hundred and fifty five percent ere on these countries,

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Speaker 7: especially China, seems to result in of you know, China

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Speaker 7: retaliating and then one of them backs down, and it's

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Speaker 7: this whole dance. I don't know whether you know what

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Speaker 7: will come of this meeting whenever it happens, and Trump's

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Speaker 7: deadlines are always a little fungible. One of the things

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Speaker 7: that struck me was that he was asked today in

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Speaker 7: the cabinet room about some report that he may or

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Speaker 7: may he may exceed to not recognize Taiwan, and he

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Speaker 7: quickly said, well, I don't want to talk about that.

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Speaker 7: It would be it seems news if Taiwan is also

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Speaker 7: on the table in the middle of a trade negotiation, be.

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Speaker 5: A pretty big deal. The apple, I think, is so

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Speaker 5: he put it, which.

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Speaker 6: She frequently describes Ukraine as being the apple of Putin's eye.

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Speaker 5: We have even talked about Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: There was actually a lot happening over the weekend, including

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Speaker 6: the No King's rally. The President was posting a lot

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Speaker 6: of stuff on social media, including a video in which

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Speaker 6: an ai video he was wearing a crown. I guess

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Speaker 6: embracing this idea. Yeah, there were a couple of he's

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Speaker 6: dumping manure on the protesters and so forth.

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Speaker 5: Where's the president's.

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Speaker 6: Head before we go to Bob McNally on the oil scene,

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Speaker 6: where's the president's head on the shut down here? Because

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Speaker 6: he's taken a number of moves to kind of remove

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Speaker 6: the pain points right, and he's not talking about it

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Speaker 6: a heck of a lot. Is he concerned with the

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Speaker 6: outcome here or is this a moment where he can

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Speaker 6: seize opportunity.

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Speaker 7: I wonder if the fact that he's not talking about

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Speaker 7: it much signals that they do know that there is

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Speaker 7: a very, very big risk, a very big chance the

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Speaker 7: Republicans will take the blame for this. The Democrats are

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Speaker 7: for the first time in this shutdown or the first time,

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Speaker 7: are using the shutdown to stand up to Trump. There

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Speaker 7: were seven million people protesting, and Trump did when he

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Speaker 7: was asked about last night, he was just like, those

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Speaker 7: aren't those aren't representative of Americans. I don't know how

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Speaker 7: they couldn't be. And Mike Johnson kept talking about the

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Speaker 7: communists and the socialists and the Marxists who were there

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Speaker 7: instead of acknowledging that these were frustrated Americans, and even

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Speaker 7: some of his own people like Joe Rogan, has started

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Speaker 7: complaining about some of his the immigration regime, and so

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Speaker 7: I think maybe he's starting to feel a little uncomfortable

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Speaker 7: on the domestic front, and that's why he's focusing so

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Speaker 7: much on the foreign affairs front.

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Speaker 2: All right, Wendy Benjaminson, Senior editor at Bloomberg, thank you

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Speaker 2: so much as always, And now, as Wendy mentioned, there's

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Speaker 2: domestic issues, but we're also have our eyes towards foreign policy,

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Speaker 2: and when we often talk about China, we're talking about

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Speaker 2: national security, but also energy security. And we wanted to

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Speaker 2: take a look today at the oil market WTI currently

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Speaker 2: hovering around fifty seven dollars a barrel. And as Joe

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Speaker 2: had mentioned, the White House just moments before we came

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Speaker 2: to air kicking out this statement touting that gas prices

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Speaker 2: are reaching new lows due to the quote relentless commitment

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Speaker 2: to American energy production. According to the statement from the

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Speaker 2: White House, but while production is rising, including here in

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Speaker 2: the US, demand growth seems to be slowing. And to

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Speaker 2: get into all of that, we're lucky to say we're

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Speaker 2: joined now by Bob McNally, founder and president of the

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Speaker 2: Rappian Energy Group and former Special Assistant and Senior Director

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Speaker 2: for International Energy on the National Security Council under President

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Speaker 2: George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush.

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Speaker 2: Bob, thanks so much for being here, and we're lucky

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Speaker 2: to have your expertise on a day like today because

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Speaker 2: there have been these long held predictions that the surging

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Speaker 2: production is going to push the market into a surplus.

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Speaker 2: From your view, where are we at right now? Are

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Speaker 2: we at some sort of tipping point?

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Speaker 3: Great to be with you, Kaylee. We are.

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Speaker 8: You know, we're like a bunch of folks at the

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Speaker 8: beach who've been hearing on the radio that a tsunami

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Speaker 8: is coming but kind of questioning if it's coming or not.

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Speaker 8: Now rapid ann is predicting or forecasting to extend the

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Speaker 8: analogy a tsunami for quite a while, and we're starting

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Speaker 8: to see it on the horizon. But it's a good

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Speaker 8: news story for consumers, whereas a tsunami is a bad

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Speaker 8: news story for bathers. Right we're about to cross through

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Speaker 8: three dollars a gallon. It's by some metrics we already

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Speaker 8: have according to gas Buddy. And you know, if you

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Speaker 8: think about it, President Trump never was above three dollars

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Speaker 8: a gallon in his first term, we got closed. So

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Speaker 8: he enjoyed a two dollars pump price in his term,

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Speaker 8: and the White House is just overjoyed because, you know,

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Speaker 8: whether they deserve it or not, a sitting president gets

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Speaker 8: the blame when gasoline prices get up, go up, and

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Speaker 8: it gets the joy and the congratulations and the benefit

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Speaker 8: when they go down, and barring a geopolitical disruption, the

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Speaker 8: way my colleagues and I at rapid Ann I look

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Speaker 8: at the markets, we think gasoline price are more likely

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Speaker 8: headed down further into that two dollars range on a

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Speaker 8: national average.

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Speaker 6: Wow, that's something, Bob. It's good to have you back,

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Speaker 6: and I appreciate it. I'm looking at your note to

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Speaker 6: clients predicting daily prints in the forties by early next year.

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Speaker 6: When it comes to crude oil, you just mentioned where

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Speaker 6: we're going in terms of gasoline. You know, as Tyler

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Speaker 6: mentioned a moment ago, we're looking at increased production levels.

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Speaker 6: But this isn't because of drill, baby, drill, right, this

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Speaker 6: is because of many other outside factors.

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Speaker 8: You know, You're right, we are quite bearish in the

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Speaker 8: near term. But I want to hasten to mention Joe

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Speaker 8: what we're telling clients is brace for the great crude steepener,

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Speaker 8: like a steepening yield curve. Near term, we've got supply

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Speaker 8: growth running three times faster than demand growth. And that's

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Speaker 8: only partly a US story, as you said, that's an

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Speaker 8: Argentina story, that's a Brazil story. Brazil adding almost as

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Speaker 8: much as the United States, Guyana.

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Speaker 5: But near turn, we have a glut.

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Speaker 8: But and I hasten to say, but in the medium term,

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Speaker 8: this market is going to tighten it up. So we're

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Speaker 8: telling clients prepare for this, consumers enjoy it.

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Speaker 5: We're going to go.

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Speaker 8: Down, but then in the coming years we're going to

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Speaker 8: go much higher. We think we're going to go into

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Speaker 8: a tightening market. But politics all always about what's tomorrow,

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Speaker 8: and tomorrow is likely to see deluge of oil, and

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Speaker 8: we have to ask ourselves, Joe, what stops crude oil

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Speaker 8: prices falling in the forties. And we think either OPEC

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Speaker 8: plus has to step up and cut production they've been

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Speaker 8: raising it, or President Trump has to follow through. And

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Speaker 8: he may feel he has the ability to do that

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Speaker 8: by restricting Russian or Iranian oil exports with tough sanctions

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Speaker 8: instead of weak sanctions. And Joe if neither Opeck Plus

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Speaker 8: nor President Trump and sanctions remove a lot of oil

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Speaker 8: next year, it's the US sales sector that's going to

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Speaker 8: take it on the chin, and we'll have an echo

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Speaker 8: of twenty twenty when the price will fall further to

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Speaker 8: shut in shale wills, and that will not be a

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Speaker 8: happy story. President Trump did not enjoy twenty twenty. Gasoline

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Speaker 8: was at a one seventy a gallon. The President was

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Speaker 8: not happy though, because we were shutting down US production,

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Speaker 8: well over two million barrels a day, shut down in

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Speaker 8: a few months.

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Speaker 5: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Well, Bob, let's build on one of the geopolitical risks

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Speaker 2: that you just mentioned, which is, of course Russia. How

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Speaker 2: are you watching this as you hear President Trump say

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Speaker 2: that he's expecting to have potentially this meeting with Vladimir

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Speaker 2: Putin Zelenski saying that he also wants to come to

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Speaker 2: the table. How is the calculus changing here day by

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Speaker 2: day as we wait for any sort of developments towards

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Speaker 2: a ceasefire there.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, we've learned with President Trump he has

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Speaker 8: an m with these negotiations, and you have to take

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Speaker 8: him pretty seriously. Consider Iran just as a template for

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Speaker 8: what we're about to see. With Russia, I think he

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Speaker 8: could have signed a deal with Tehran. He could have

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Speaker 8: lifted sanctions, he could have opened an embassy.

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Speaker 3: Had they agreed to a deal.

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Speaker 8: But instead he became the president who ordered an aerial

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Speaker 8: attack on the Fidoh facility. I don't think any of

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Speaker 8: his predecessors would either have done a deal or order

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Speaker 8: an attack.

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Speaker 5: He can go either way with Russia.

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Speaker 8: It's the same way I think if President Putin doesn't

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Speaker 8: agree to a ceasefire here, and President Trump's going to

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Speaker 8: go the last mile and then a few hundred yards

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Speaker 8: after the last mile for diplomacy, he really doesn't want

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Speaker 8: to drop the bomb here, if you will, figuratively now

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Speaker 8: speaking now, If they don't get to a deal in

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Speaker 8: the coming weeks, I think the President is ready, this

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Speaker 8: White House is ready, along with the Europeans, to impose

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Speaker 8: tough sanctions on Russian oil, to do what they were

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Speaker 8: unwilling to do in twenty twenty two, which is actually

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Speaker 8: cut into Russian production and risk higher oil prices. Again,

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Speaker 8: going back to the glut we were just talking about.

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Speaker 8: If the President sees in the White House sees this

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Speaker 8: glut develop, he'll be more willing to really crack down

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Speaker 8: on India, Turkey, even China and shut in Russian production,

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Speaker 8: more willing than his predecessor was in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 8: So he can go either way, either a deal with

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Speaker 8: Putin or I think very tough sanctions here down the road.

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Speaker 6: Well as you predict an oil tsunami, Bob McNally, I

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Speaker 6: wonder what that means for refilling the spr Should we

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Speaker 6: not be bidding right now on fifty something dollars a

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Speaker 6: barrel or to your point, eventually forty something dollar a

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Speaker 6: barrel oil?

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Speaker 8: Absolutely, Joe, And it's just a shame, and I think

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Speaker 8: there is bipartisan consensus even we should be doing that.

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Speaker 8: The problem is the money. When I was working for

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Speaker 8: President Bush, we had authority to do what we call

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Speaker 8: a royalty and kind program. Didn't have to ask Congress.

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Speaker 8: We just said to those oil companies producing oil and

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Speaker 8: federal waters, hey pay us in oil instead of cash,

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Speaker 8: and we filled it for the only time to the top.

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Speaker 8: But Congress took that authority away. So I think one

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Speaker 8: thing Congress should be working on with the president is

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Speaker 8: either get that authority back so we can start taking

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Speaker 8: those royalties in oil and fill it up that way,

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Speaker 8: or even better, appropriate the money. We can't even open

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Speaker 8: the government, as you've been talking about all day, but

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Speaker 8: if we open the government, it'd be great if we

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Speaker 8: could pony up some money and refill the spr absolutely, Bob.

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Speaker 2: In the final minute that we have with you, we

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Speaker 2: had reporting out from Bloomberg News this weekend that India

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Speaker 2: is actually making progress when it comes to a trade

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Speaker 2: deal with the US. We've heard President Trump suggest that

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Speaker 2: India could abandon its imports of Russian energy supplies. Of course,

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent of the tear currently in place against

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Speaker 2: the country has to deal with its imports of Russian

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Speaker 2: energy supplies is so called secondary tariff. But in your view,

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Speaker 2: how realistic is this? Is India going to move away?

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Speaker 5: I think they will.

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Speaker 8: You know, India took no Russian oil remember before President

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Speaker 8: Putin invaded Ukraine and now has become the biggest customer.

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Speaker 8: And of course India has been having a wonderful time

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Speaker 8: enjoying cheap discounted Russian oil. Who wouldn't enjoy a fifteen

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Speaker 8: percent discount on pump prices if you can get it

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Speaker 8: over your neighbors. However, if forced to choose between enjoying

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Speaker 8: this discounted Russian oil supply on the one hand, or

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Speaker 8: having economic relations and trade and so forth much less

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Speaker 8: stable political relationships with not only the US but the EU.

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Speaker 8: The EU has some tough sanctions coming in on India

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Speaker 8: in January. I think India will side with maybe letting

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Speaker 8: go of that enjoyable discount and preventing a sort of

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Speaker 8: worse and more costly trade measures. On the other side,

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Speaker 8: it's a cost benefit, and I think they'll quietly. They

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Speaker 8: won't enjoy it. They won't say it publicly, but quietly,

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Speaker 8: I think they'll move away from Russia.

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Speaker 5: Well, you're the first call we'll make when that happens. Bob.

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Speaker 6: It's great to talk to you, and we appreciate your

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Speaker 6: analysis as always. Bob McNally, founder President Rapidan Energy Group.

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Speaker 6: In a conversation you'll only hear right here on Balance

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Speaker 6: of Power alongside Tyler Kendel, I'm Joe Matthew. Will assemble

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Speaker 6: our panel next after the No Kings rallies last weekend.

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Speaker 6: It's straight ahead on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance

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Speaker 6: of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 9: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

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Speaker 9: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 9: Apple Corpway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 9: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg.

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Speaker 10: Eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Washington was at least one of the sites this weekend

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Speaker 2: that saw these no King protests across the US. Demonstrator

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Speaker 2: an organizer saying that twenty six hundred protests happened across

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Speaker 2: the country protesting President Trump and his agenda. Now, President

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Speaker 2: Trump was asked about these protests last night on Air

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Speaker 2: Force One, and here's how we characterize them.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a joke.

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Speaker 11: I looked at the people. They're not representative of this country.

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Speaker 11: And I looked at all the brand new science paid for.

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Speaker 11: I guess it was paid for by Sorrows and other

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Speaker 11: radical left lunatics.

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Speaker 3: It looks like it was.

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Speaker 11: We're checking it out. The demonstrations were very small, very ineffective,

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Speaker 11: and the people who are whacked out. When you look

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Speaker 11: at those people, those are not representative but the people.

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Speaker 3: Of our country. I'm not a king. I work my

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Speaker 3: stuff to make our country great. That's all it is

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Speaker 3: I'm not a king at all?

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Speaker 6: Another day in which we're bleeping the president referring to

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Speaker 6: some of the costumes there, presumably as he was making

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Speaker 6: the point there, he said, I guess it was paid

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Speaker 6: for by Soros.

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Speaker 5: Very and effective. People were whacked.

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Speaker 6: Out, which brings us to the headline of the Washington Post,

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Speaker 6: why protesters against Trump are wearing frog, chicken and t

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Speaker 6: rex costumes. Yeah, they were having some fun out there

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Speaker 6: over the weekend. We saw pandas, hot dog, Santa clauses,

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Speaker 6: and indeed t rex dinosaurs. Now no kings. The group

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Speaker 6: that put this all together, I don't know if had

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Speaker 6: anything to do with George Soros says. Nearly seven million

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Speaker 6: people turned out for these monster rallies, and you saw

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Speaker 6: the images of them as Tyler was just talking. If

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Speaker 6: you were with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube,

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Speaker 6: sees of humanity in different cities around the country. So

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Speaker 6: we thought we'd see what the panel thought about this,

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Speaker 6: considering the obsession that Washington has with crowd sizes. Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno or here. Genie

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Speaker 6: is our democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard

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Speaker 6: Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is our Republican strategist and

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Speaker 6: partner at Stone Court Capital. Rick, I can't really imagine

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Speaker 6: you in the t rex or the panda costume at

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Speaker 6: a rally like this. But what are we supposed to

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Speaker 6: make of the What is the impact politically of crowds

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Speaker 6: of this size gathering on a weekend in October?

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Speaker 12: Well, Joe, you know it is Halloween season, so no

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Speaker 12: telling what Rick Wams is going to show up like

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Speaker 12: on the thirty first of this month. But you're right.

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Speaker 12: I mean it looked more like a comic con convention

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Speaker 12: as it did to a government protest, and I think

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Speaker 12: that's great. I was actually very impressed with the fact

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Speaker 12: that there wasn't really any violence.

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Speaker 3: There wasn't a lot of troublemaking.

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Speaker 12: I guess Antifa didn't show up for this parade, and

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Speaker 12: so I think that's a real tribute to America. I mean, like,

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Speaker 12: nobody likes a good protest more than Americans. We found

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Speaker 12: our nation over protesting, and I think that it's a

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Speaker 12: really good thing that people looked like they were enjoying

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Speaker 12: themselves and gathered in large numbers, because at the end

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Speaker 12: of the day. You know, it's a form of political participation,

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Speaker 12: and regardless of how you feel about Republicans, Democrats, independence, Ordetarians,

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Speaker 12: you want to show up and participate. I think that's

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Speaker 12: what they did this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Well, Genie Axios is reporting on some of the preliminary

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Speaker 2: data collected by American university researchers that track protest movements.

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Speaker 2: Found nearly ninety percent of the participants this weekend identified

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Speaker 2: with the political left. Genie, how effective is this for

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Speaker 2: actual change when it comes to the policies that these

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Speaker 2: protesters are protesting?

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Speaker 13: Yeah, Tyler, you noticed that Rick did not deny. He

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Speaker 13: wasn't under one of those costumes like the chicken or

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Speaker 13: the panda.

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Speaker 3: So you may just see him when.

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Speaker 13: He comes in for the show on the thirty first

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Speaker 13: and one of those Yeah, I mean, not surprisingly we

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Speaker 13: are talking. I think the number was about seven million,

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Speaker 13: which is up two million from the summer protest, the

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Speaker 13: No Kings protest, which was the third largest in American history.

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Speaker 13: And what does the data show us? Three point five

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Speaker 13: percent of a population is enough to diminish an autocratic

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Speaker 13: governm that's the rule of thumb. We're not quite there yet,

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Speaker 13: but seven million is a little over two percent of

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Speaker 13: the American population. It certainly has a vast numbers up

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Speaker 13: from the left, But the question is does that start

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Speaker 13: to bleed into the moderates and even some people on

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Speaker 13: the right in terms of how they vote. And we're

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Speaker 13: going to have a go at this in just a

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Speaker 13: few weeks when we see these big elections in New Jersey, Virginia,

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Speaker 13: and of course New York City. So I think we

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Speaker 13: have to wait to see what the ballot impact is.

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Speaker 13: But in no doubt, these are huge numbers of turnouts

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Speaker 13: and as you mentioned Tyler, twenty six hundred locations around

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Speaker 13: the country. That's pretty impressive for this group.

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Speaker 6: And so what do we make of the president's reaction, Rick?

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Speaker 6: I guess it's somewhat predictable. He called it a joke,

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Speaker 6: as you just heard. I looked at the paper. He said,

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Speaker 6: they're not representative of this country. But of course the

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Speaker 6: numbers are pretty remarkable here, not just the number of people,

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Speaker 6: but the number of different events. As Genie and Tyler

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Speaker 6: have qualified. You saw what he put on social media,

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Speaker 6: the No King's rally. He's in this AI video wearing

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Speaker 6: a crown flying a fighter jet that's literally bombing the

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Speaker 6: crowd with manureis dumping poop on American cities. Rick Davis,

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Speaker 6: what do we think about the commander in chief in.

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Speaker 5: A look like that?

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Speaker 12: Well, every time I think I've seen a new low

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Speaker 12: coming out of the White House, Yeah, I lose my

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Speaker 12: breath at the next version of that. And this was

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Speaker 12: pretty comical in the sense that, you know, he's obviously

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Speaker 12: not taking any of this very seriously, but the disparage

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Speaker 12: people like this reminds me of Hillary Clinton calling his

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Speaker 12: supporters deplorables and that got them all rallied up, probably helped,

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Speaker 12: you know, defeat her as a result of it. And

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Speaker 12: to see him doing that and the speaker on shows

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Speaker 12: this Sunday calling them all communists and socialists, and Mark,

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Speaker 12: I mean like when you paint with a brush in

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Speaker 12: American politics that wide, you're going to hit a lot

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Speaker 12: of people who otherwise would have thought of voting for

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Speaker 12: you or your causes. And this is not a good

439
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 12: way to build a coalition for the future.

440
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 2: Well, Jeanie, let's get your reaction to the White House's

441
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 2: response here, but also talk about some tangible policy, because

442
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 2: as President Trump was alleging that these protests are ineffective.

443
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: He was also talking about the government shutdown and his

444
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: remarks over the weekend blaming Democrats again, how are we

445
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: seeing these two things collide this weekend as the government

446
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 2: is now officially the longest government shut down, the the

447
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: third longest government shutdown in US history.

448
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 13: Yeah, and many people are predicting, as you know, Tyler,

449
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 13: that it could be the longest, given where the president

450
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 13: is headed in the next few weeks overseas and then

451
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 13: the need for him to step into this if we're

452
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,199
Speaker 13: going to see an end to it, you know. I

453
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 13: think for the Democrats, the warning here is is that, yes,

454
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 13: you can get out large numbers of people against Donald Trump,

455
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 13: no question there. The problem for Democrats is going to

456
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 13: be articulating just what you mentioned, Tyler, what you are

457
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 13: for from a policy perspective. I think they've done that

458
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 13: better than I expected in terms of the shutdown on healthcare.

459
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 13: Whether that resonates in the end is another question. But

460
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 13: they're going to have to have a message, and I

461
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 13: believe that message should be cost of living. I'm in

462
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 13: New York, as you know, we have the New York

463
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 13: City Merrill Race coming up, and one of the reasons

464
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 13: Zora Mundani has resonated here is because he's talking about

465
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 13: people's lives, the amount it costs to buy groceries, the

466
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 13: amount it cost to rent an apartment, how difficult it

467
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 13: is for people to make ends meet, and how concern

468
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 13: they are. That's what I think the Democrats need to articulate.

469
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 13: And these so far protests have been great at getting

470
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 13: large numbers out, but they've been more anti Trump than

471
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 13: pro something, and that's what I think the Democrats are

472
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 13: going to need to work on if they're going to

473
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 13: resonate at the polls.

474
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 6: Interesting, there's a new bill to pay federal workers who

475
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 6: have been furloughed along with members of the military. Once

476
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 6: this pay cycle is exhausted, they're going to have to

477
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 6: fund military as well again. And it looks rick like

478
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 6: this is going to happen Wednesday or Thursday in the Senate.

479
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 6: But interestingly, no one seems to think it's going to pass.

480
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 6: A few Democratic senators, much like we saw with the

481
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 6: Continuing Resolution, we'll probably get on board. But wouldn't that

482
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 6: be a good look for Democrats to vote to pay

483
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 6: the workers.

484
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a precedent to this too.

485
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,479
Speaker 12: You know, we've had partial government shutdowns in the past

486
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 12: that have gone a long time and don't wreck havoc

487
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 12: in the lives of government workers like the military and

488
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 12: other essential personnel. So I think it's a risky strategy

489
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 12: for Democrats to all of a sudden play hardball with

490
00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,040
Speaker 12: the lives of these employees. They can't sustain long in

491
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 12: terms of being out, like the Senators and the congressmen

492
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 12: and frankly the White House staff who are getting paid

493
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 12: every day, and so I think you've got to have

494
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 12: some sensibilities around that. So I do think this should

495
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 12: go through pretty easily. I think most of these Democrats,

496
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 12: especially moderns like John Ossoffen and Georgia. He's running for reelection.

497
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 12: There's a huge amount of military in his state that

498
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 12: vote in his state, And do you think they're going

499
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 12: to want to vote for a guy who wouldn't pay

500
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 12: him for the work they're doing. I mean, that's a

501
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 12: hard sell against a guy like John Austin. So my

502
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 12: guess is you're going to see some modern Democrats, especially

503
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 12: who have ify reelections, you know, sort of march to

504
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 12: the drum of getting these people paid in a partial shutdown.

505
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 2: Well, Genie, what's your assessment should Democrats get on board

506
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: with this bill that would pay these essential workers. And

507
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 2: who are you watching the same sort of names that

508
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 2: Ri's laying out here.

509
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 3: Yeah.

510
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 13: Absolutely, awes up is a great example, and I think

511
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 13: Democrats should vote for it.

512
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 3: I've been against this shutdown.

513
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 13: From the beginning, but I think they should vote for it.

514
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 5: I also think this would be.

515
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 13: More effective on the Republicans part if the President was

516
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 13: spending less time overseas and with foreign leaders and more

517
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 13: time focusing on reopening this government and the concerns of Americans.

518
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 13: So I think it's effective, but I don't think it's

519
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 13: effective enough when he's got this revolving door, as Marjorie

520
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 13: Taylor Green says, of foreign leaders, and far less focus

521
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 13: on what's going on with Americans.

522
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: All Right, our political panel today, Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzino,

523
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 2: both Bloomberg Politics contributors, Thank you both as always, and Joe,

524
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 2: it feels like we're ramping up here. Some of the

525
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: pressure has been taken down, but of course we're marching

526
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 2: on to November first, the open enrollment start date.

527
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 6: Open enrollment November first, something else that happens on that

528
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 6: date as well as the expiration of snap benefits. So

529
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 6: you're going to start hearing a lot more talk about

530
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 6: the first of November as the next inflection point on

531
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 6: the calendar. And let's remember the President did unlock funds

532
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 6: to pay active duty military, but that was only one

533
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 6: pay cycle, eight billion dollars. Another week, we're going to

534
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 6: be having that conversation all over again if this bill that.

535
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 5: We were just discussing does not pass.

536
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 6: With the military in mind, we're going to turn our

537
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 6: attention to the war in Ukraine coming up, some really

538
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 6: important developments over the weekend that probably are not making

539
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 6: President Zelenski feel very good. With a turnabout again by

540
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 6: President Trump. We'll get into it with Melinda Herring from

541
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 6: the Atlantic Council as straight ahead here on Balance of

542
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 6: Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Stay with us on

543
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 6: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

544
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 9: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

545
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 9: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

546
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 9: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

547
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

548
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 9: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

549
00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 2: Foreign policy has really taken center stage in recent days. Today,

550
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 2: President Trump welcoming the Australian Prime Minister to the White House.

551
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 2: After Friday's meeting with the Ukrainian President Vladimir or Zelenski.

552
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: President Trump was asked about the state of negotiations and

553
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 2: the war earlier today in the Cabinet room, and had

554
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: this to say about those talks.

555
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 3: Most of the people dying are soldiers.

556
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 4: The soldiers that are dying in Russia and Ukraine is unbelievable.

557
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 3: Five to seven thousand a week. Can you believe it?

558
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 4: And I look at that and I say, it's pretty amazing.

559
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 4: But in addition to that, there are attacks on Kiev

560
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 4: and some of the other places, and it's human lives.

561
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 4: But the big number of human lives are soldiers that

562
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 4: are being killed in the battlefield.

563
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: For the latest, we are joined now by Courtney McBride

564
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: Bloomberg National Security reporters. So Courtney, can you just give

565
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 2: us an update. We had Zelenski here in Washington on Friday.

566
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: You're hearing President Trump talking about this ongoing in the fighting.

567
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: Where do talks actually stand right now?

568
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 14: Sure? Well, you know, as you said, President Zelensky was

569
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 14: here President Trump has said that he plans to meet

570
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 14: with Russian President Vladimir Putin sometime in the coming weeks.

571
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 14: President Zelenski has said that he would be open to

572
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 14: attending or to engaging in some sort of shuttle diplomacy

573
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 14: if that happens. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with

574
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 14: his Russian counterpart today and, according to the State Department,

575
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 14: sort of emphasize the opportunity that these upcoming talks present.

576
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,479
Speaker 14: In the meantime, you know, US allies in Europe are

577
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 14: really trying to do their best to shore up Ukraine's

578
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 14: position and to bring Putin to the table, but a

579
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 14: lot remains to be seen. You know, the President Trump

580
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 14: did not commit the sort of military support that President

581
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 14: Zelenski seemed to be seeking in terms of Tomahawk missiles,

582
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 14: you know, to try to really improve Ukraine's battlefield position

583
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 14: and perhaps exert some some really meaningful pressure on Putin.

584
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 6: We're getting a sense this was not a good meeting

585
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 6: for Presidents Lenski. When you read the write up in

586
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 6: the Financial Time, for instance, it wasn't only he didn't

587
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 6: get the tomahawks, and we saw, I won't say a

588
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 6: remorseful Zelenski, but a pretty low key Zlensky coming off

589
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 6: that meeting. In the news conference that he held in

590
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 6: Lafayette Park, ye f Ti says this evolved into a

591
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 6: shouting match.

592
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 5: Are the words that they use.

593
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 6: Trump quote cursing all the time, unquote, echoing Putin's talking

594
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 6: points and even suggesting that Zelensky hand over the entire

595
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 6: donbas Has Ukraine lost America again?

596
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 14: Well, I think it's it's early to make any sort

597
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 14: of you know, dramatic pronouncements like that, But certainly the

598
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 14: meeting didn't yield, you know, the sorts of gains either,

599
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 14: you know, in terms of weapons or commitments that Zelensky

600
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 14: was hoping for. But you know, I think we've seen

601
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 14: a lot of back and forth in terms of the

602
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 14: US President's position. He's made very clear that he wants

603
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 14: the parties to come to the table. You know, maybe

604
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 14: that means offering some some carrots to Putin to convince

605
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 14: him to do so. But it's really unclear exactly where

606
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 14: things stand.

607
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 2: Well, if we stick on this idea of military assistance,

608
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 2: particularly these patriot missile batteries, we had reporting that Ukraine

609
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: was actually preparing a contract for twenty five of these

610
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 2: air defense systems which the country would receive over the years.

611
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: It appears that the US and Ukraine might be pretty

612
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,479
Speaker 2: far apart when it comes to this issue. What has

613
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: been the White House is reasoning, What have we heard

614
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: from President to Trump when it comes to really the

615
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: state of the talks between these two countries.

616
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 14: Well, President Trump has been pretty clear that Ukraine can

617
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 14: have as many weapons as it needs if someone is

618
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 14: purchasing those weapons, But the American taxpayer is not going

619
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 14: to fund those and so the potential contract that you're

620
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 14: referring to, presumably would be to purchase those systems, but

621
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 14: as you said, I mean that takes the approvals and

622
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 14: then the negotiations and delivery take years for any of

623
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,719
Speaker 14: those systems. So that could be a long term prospect.

624
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 14: But you know, in the interim, the EU is really

625
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 14: trying to increase the ability to fund weapons for Ukraine,

626
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 14: potentially by using Russian assets that are held in European banks.

627
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 14: The US has been pushing back against that effort, according

628
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 14: to some of our reporting.

629
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 6: Courtney, Thank you as always Courtney McBride from our National

630
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 6: Security team here in Washington, d C. As we keep

631
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 6: the beat on this, we want to add the voice

632
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 6: of an expert in Belinda Herring, who is going to

633
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 6: be with us in just a moment back from the

634
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 6: Atlantic Council, with a sense of disappointment for those who

635
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 6: have been in Ukraine's corner. Here and I'll point back

636
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 6: to the President's truth social post following the meeting on Friday,

637
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 6: where he says, the meeting with Zelenski of Ukraine was

638
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 6: very interesting and cordial, But I told him as I

639
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 6: likewise strongly suggested to President Putin, but it's time to

640
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 6: stop the killing and make a deal. We read this

641
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 6: together when it was released. He says, they should stop

642
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 6: or they are property lines being defined by war and guts.

643
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 6: Let both claim victory. Let history decide. The President was

644
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 6: asked on Air Force one over the weekend about this

645
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 6: idea of essentially freezing the lines in place and going

646
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 6: even further to essentially donate the Dunboss to Vladimir Putin.

647
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 5: Here's what he said during that meeting.

648
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 11: Did you tell him he needed to seed all of

649
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 11: the Donbass region to Russia?

650
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 3: No, we never discuss it.

651
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 11: We think that what they should do is just stop

652
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 11: at the lines where they are the battle lines. You

653
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 11: have a battle line right now. The rest is very

654
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,479
Speaker 11: tough to negotiate. If you're going to say you take this,

655
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 11: we take that. You know, there's so many different permutations.

656
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 11: So what I say is they should stop right now

657
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 11: at the battle lines, go home, stop killing people, and

658
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 11: be done.

659
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 5: Stop right now at the battle lines now.

660
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 6: Of course, if that were the definition of a ceasefire,

661
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,239
Speaker 6: that might be something that President Zelensky would be in

662
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 6: favor of stopping the guns, so negotiations can begin. But

663
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 6: that may not be what the President is proposing here.

664
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 6: It's a bit difficult to tell. And at this confusing

665
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 6: stage of the conversation. We're glad to have Melinda Herring

666
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 6: back with US non resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic

667
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 6: Council's Eurasia Center. I don't know how long it's been

668
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 6: since you were in Key, but every time I see

669
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 6: you, you just come back or you're about to go, and

670
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 6: it's great to see you.

671
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 5: Melinda.

672
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 6: I can't imagine your thoughts when you read this, when

673
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 6: you heard the tone from President Zelenski and now this

674
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 6: morning to read in the ft that it was a

675
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 6: shouting match in fact that took place. Are we all

676
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 6: the way back to where we were following the first

677
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 6: Oval meeting.

678
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 10: It's deja vu, Agan Joe. It does feel like February.

679
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 10: But look, Trump is a yo yo, So I know

680
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 10: that the actual you know, it doesn't feel so good

681
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 10: right now. But I would say, don't overreact. I think

682
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 10: things are going to pull back. I think Trump will

683
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 10: pull back from where he is now. So Trump has said,

684
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 10: why doesn't Ukraine give up the Dawn Boss in exchange

685
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 10: for a little sliver of two very important pieces in

686
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 10: southern Ukraine. It is a terrible deal. Ukraine will not

687
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 10: take it. It is a non starter. And I'd like

688
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 10: to ask Donald Trump what about the security guarantees? Where's

689
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 10: the ceasefire and where are the security guarantees? Why on

690
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 10: earth would Ukraine take this deal when there's no that

691
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 10: there's no guarantee that Russia won't strike again.

692
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: Can you actually give us a little bit more context here?

693
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 2: When you hear the President stay that we should stop

694
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: right now at the battle line, what are these regions?

695
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 2: Why are they so imperative to Russia's ambitions here? Just

696
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 2: give us a little bit of why this has really

697
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 2: been long a flashpoint in this conversation.

698
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 10: Sure, it's great to be with you, tyler. So look,

699
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 10: there's Ukraine is a huge country and Russia occupies about

700
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 10: eighteen percent of it right now. You remember, back in

701
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 10: twenty fourteen, the boot of Ukraine Crimea was illegally annexed

702
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 10: by the Russians and there was a fake referendum. So

703
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 10: that's one piece of the story that goes back to

704
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 10: twenty fourteen. But the Russians also tried to take the

705
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 10: Dawn Boss and this is two different provinces in eastern Ukraine.

706
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 10: It's Luhansk and Denetsk Oblast. And they didn't, they weren't.

707
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 10: They didn't manage to take very much of those provinces.

708
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 10: Fast forward to February of twenty and the Russians surrounded

709
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 10: Ukraine by three sides and they tried to take and

710
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 10: dismember the country. They remember, they came in from the

711
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 10: north from Belarus and they tried to whack Zelensky in

712
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 10: three days and they failed.

713
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 5: They were repelled. But a lot has.

714
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 10: Happened since then. But this area out in the east

715
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 10: is important because they've been fighting about it for a

716
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 10: long time. But just to summarize it in a sentence,

717
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 10: Ukraine is not I'm sorry Russia is not an empire

718
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 10: without Ukraine. So that's why it's so important, and that's

719
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 10: why Russia can't let Ukraine go.

720
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 6: President was asked in the White House a short time

721
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 6: ago by a reporter about it was only what just

722
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 6: a couple of weeks ago, he said that Ukraine was

723
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 6: capable of winning back all of the land that Russia

724
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 6: had occupied. He's singing a pretty different tune now, and

725
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,280
Speaker 6: was asked about that change in rhetoric, and he said

726
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 6: they could win the war. He still, in fact, believes that.

727
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 6: I just don't think they will. What did Vladimir Putin

728
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 6: tell him in this phone call last time?

729
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 10: I'm dying to know, Joe. I have no idea, and

730
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 10: I think everyone is dying to know. So, look, this

731
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 10: is typical behavior. This is let's take a broader perspective

732
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 10: every time the US decides to be more firm. So

733
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,760
Speaker 10: wasn't that long ago, two days, three days that Trump

734
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 10: was talking about giving the Ukrainians tomahawks. This is up

735
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 10: to one thousand miles in range, right, this is a

736
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,919
Speaker 10: game changer. The war is over if Ukraine has enough

737
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 10: long range fires. I've talked to a lot of generals

738
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 10: and brigade commanders in Ukraine, Joe, and they tell me,

739
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 10: if we have two thousand long range fires, they don't

740
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 10: have to be Tomahawks, but they have to have.

741
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 5: Long range fires.

742
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 10: Yeah, to be able to hit behind enemy lines, command

743
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 10: and control centers and AMMO depots. It's over That's why

744
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 10: this is such a big deal. And Moscow overreacted. So

745
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 10: what does Vladimir Putin do? He gets on the phone

746
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 10: with Trump and he sweets talks him. I don't know

747
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 10: what he offered him, but we do know one thing

748
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 10: about Donald Trump. He's vain and he really wants a

749
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 10: Nobel Peace prize, and he has how many wars has

750
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:54,439
Speaker 10: he solved?

751
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 2: Now?

752
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 14: Eight?

753
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 11: Nine?

754
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 10: I think he's claiming nine. So he knows that he's

755
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 10: not going to get it until he can bring peace

756
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 10: to Ukraine. So he's frustrated and he's emotional, and he

757
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 10: thinks that if he lashes out, he may get He

758
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 10: may cause the Ukrainians to capitulate.

759
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 5: Ain't gonna happen.

760
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 14: Well.

761
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 2: Keeping with this phone call that President Trump had with

762
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin, the President came out of it saying that

763
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 2: there potentially could be a face to face meeting in Hungary.

764
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: We then have a headline on the Bloomberg terminal saying

765
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 2: that Zelensky, despite his reservations about the venue, would like

766
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 2: to be part of that conversation. Can you just talk

767
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: a little bit about the geopolitical forces here if such

768
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 2: a conversation was going to happen in Hungary.

769
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 10: So to my knowledge, Putin hasn't agreed yet, has he that.

770
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 5: There's nothing formal that we're aware of. Only from the

771
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 5: truth do we know this?

772
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 10: So this is sort of the shocking part is that

773
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 10: Trump has made session about face on the promise that

774
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 10: Putin might appear in Budapest, and there's no commitment from

775
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 10: the Kremlin. So I think Washington really gave a lot

776
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 10: away on Friday for no good reason. But the geopolitics,

777
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 10: I mean, look, Putin is delighted. They are mixing martiniz.

778
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 10: I was just looking at the Russian newspaper coverage. They're

779
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 10: mixing martinis in Moscow tonight. They are so delighted. They

780
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 10: think that the European Union is full of hypocrites, and

781
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 10: they think they punched Zelenski in the stomach.

782
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: That's one of the.

783
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 5: Titles that I saw.

784
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 10: So they are very very happy with the outcome, and

785
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,280
Speaker 10: Hungary is not a place that's hospitable to the West,

786
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 10: to Ukraine, to Western values. Remember this is the home

787
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 10: of Victor Orbon, and he's tight with Putin and also Trump.

788
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 6: So what would be the optics of a meeting like

789
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 6: that to think that Zelenski would show up. We just

790
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 6: saw what took place in Alaska. Now we're going to

791
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 6: have Victor Orbon essentially controlling the optics around a meeting

792
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,720
Speaker 6: between these two presidents with no preconditions.

793
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 5: Is that the assumption?

794
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 10: I don't think it's going to happen, Joe.

795
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 5: You don't think the meeting takes place.

796
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 10: I don't think it's going to happen. Look, let's ignore

797
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 10: the hysterics for a minute. The war is going to

798
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 10: continue to at least next spring or summer. The Russians

799
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:54,959
Speaker 10: are going to continue at the same pace, the same

800
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 10: intensity of the war right now until about Christmas. Something

801
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 10: happens in Christmas, the leaves star to fall off trees,

802
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 10: which means the Russians won't have as much air cover,

803
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 10: So same intensity till Christmas. Then it will diminish a

804
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 10: little bit, and then as spring changes, there'll be another

805
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 10: big push from the Russians, and the Russians are going

806
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 10: to see what they can get, and they're going to

807
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 10: see what kind of mood Donald Trump is in.

808
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 5: And what does this mean.

809
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 10: This means that human beings in Ukraine, children, women, elderly

810
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 10: people are going to suffer and the winter is going

811
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 10: to be very hard. We see the Russians hitting the

812
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 10: grid right now. I saw pictures of Kiev, a city

813
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 10: of four million people in pitch blackness. We're going to

814
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 10: see more and more of this, and unfortunately the US

815
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 10: government doesn't have anyone who's paying attention to the energy picture.

816
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 5: It's going to be a cold winter.

817
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,479
Speaker 2: Tyler a lot to follow here, of course. Melinda Hearing,

818
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 2: non Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center,

819
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 2: thank you so much.

820
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

821
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 6: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify,

822
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,439
Speaker 6: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

823
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,720
Speaker 6: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

824
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 6: at Bloomberg dot com.